teslamotorclub: Any point in placing an order now? part 1

I didn't place an order, and now there are over 300,000 people in front of me. Is there any point in placing an order now? orders are tapering off now. Appreciate your thoughts.
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If you are an investor I would say yes. Getting onto a line at 300k may sound like pretty far back but waiting much longer (after part 2 reveal) could put you 500k or higher and that may be a full year additional wait if production isn't ramped.

The deposit is refundable - if you can float the $1k, why not?
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If you might want one in 2-3 years, except giving Tesla an interest free $1000 loan, what's there to lose? Pretty likely bunch more reservations may roll in after second reveal, I'd want to beat them to the punch at least.
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Reservation queues are speared by region. If you reserve today, you aren't necessarily going to be the 350,000th person to get a Model 3.

Your profile indicates you're from the west coast of Canada, so depending on how deliveries are fulfilled, it's not unreasonable to think you will get your car before a large portion of pre-orders outside of North America.
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Yes I'm from Western Canada. Will this be included in the west coast deliveries of North America?

Thx again.
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I would think there are several factors that might help you decide...

1: Tesla can use your money to bring positive change to the world, while you wait for your vehicle. Tesla will likely need more money to finish the Gigafactory, Tooling and Line Setup for M3, and to complete Alpha Design on Model Y. Your donation, along with ours, will help.
2: Model Y will likely be announced before M3 gets to mass production. You could transfer your reservation early, if you liked it better.
3: The higher the reservation numbers, the more likely you'll motivate other Legacy Automakers to get off their collective butts, and accelerate their own BEV programs. More choice means lower prices and less carbon in the atmosphere-- are all great things.
4: Panasonic has historically been fiscally conservative with phasing in investments and expansions at the Gigafactory. More production pressure might help them feel more confident about spending more, earlier than they had anticipated-- due to the overwhelming and growing demand for Tesla's vehicles. Model 3 really needs the new form factor batteries that only the Gigafactory can likely provide.
5. You would basically be giving an FU to legacy vehicle companies that have produced no BEVs, lame hybrids, compliance level BEVs, or outright repeated the industry myth that "No one wants Electric Vehicles."
6. You would basically be giving an FU to corrupt politicians and automotive lobbyists trying to block Tesla's Direct Sales, and folks like the Koch Bros., Exxon, Terrorists, and their ilk.

There are probably many more, but that's good for now...

If you like the car, go for it.
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I say go for it...I didn't order until Sunday morning and I live in Georgia...although I am still holding out hope I will get mine just in time for my birthday in July of 2018 but that's probably still a longshot..plus it's refundable if you have 1k laying around..just think about it being in the Bank of Tesla instead of your bank
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Canadian deliveries will be after US deliveries. But why not? By 2019ish, they'll be producing several hundred thousand cars per year.
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Please do reserve. Please get everyone you know to reserve. Let's change things.
Let's get Tesla to double however many lines they were thinking they were going to do.
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Jason Bourne said: ?

Canadian deliveries will be after US deliveries. But why not? By 2019ish, they'll be producing several hundred thousand cars per year.
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That's probably true and was the case with the S and the X, however, prior owners may get their cars in Canada before the general public in the States. I also note that Tesla doesn't separate out Canada from the States in their announcement:

"Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. North American deliveries will be first, followed by Europe, Asia and Pacific countries then countries with right-hand drive configurations. Those who own Model S or Model X cars will be offered priority production slots as a special thanks for supporting the Tesla mission."
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AU1985 said: ?

I say go for it...I didn't order until Sunday morning and I live in Georgia...although I am still holding out hope I will get mine just in time for my birthday in July of 2018 but that's probably still a longshot..plus it's refundable if you have 1k laying around..just think about it being in the Bank of Tesla instead of your bank
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Oh yeah... I forgot to add this one:

7: Your money will do more in that time while in Tesla's hands, than sitting in your bank-- doing nothing. Except making bankers more money.
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They mentioned reservation locations will help focus supercharger and infrastructure investment. In addition to the above reasons, I'd say that's a pretty good reason to reserve.
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Remember reserving the car will always give you priority over other people in your local geography. Plus you are closer to US west coast. I would imagine you should get your car earlier than rest of Canada. They only have to truck the car to you, won't even need to get on a boat like for other countries. I would do it. You can't loose.
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Rowsby said: ?

Oh yeah... I forgot to add this one:

7: Your money will do more in that time while in Tesla's hands, than sitting in your bank-- doing nothing. Except making bankers more money.
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haha, like this point.
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eloder said: ?

They mentioned reservation locations will help focus supercharger and infrastructure investment. In addition to the above reasons, I'd say that's a pretty good reason to reserve.
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This is a very important point.
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I have several friends thinking about it and I'm telling them all to reserve now and get in line. It's only going to get longer.
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If you don't place an order, you won't get a Tesla... ever.
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Rowsby said: ?

Oh yeah... I forgot to add this one:

7: Your money will do more in that time while in Tesla's hands, than sitting in your bank-- doing nothing. Except making bankers more money.
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Or you can invest your money instead of loaning it to Tesla who is sitting on a billion in cash.

Elon Musk's net worth is 13 billion by the way.

Also you can wait and buy a CPO Model 3 if the wait is going to be three years or more.
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Wow, lots of folks in for the late reservation here. I guess it depends on what car you are going to order. If you are going to get a "highly optioned" car, then you might be able to wait until cars start shipping and jump ahead of others in line. I believe you can do that now with an X by ordering a P model.

If you are trying to get a base model, the longer you wait, the longer it will be to get the car. Might as well jump in if you have the cash.
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Other points to consider:
-Elon's been hinting that Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal is going to be amazing. Now is your chance to get a reservation in before another 300k people jump in.
-The only way to get one of those exclusive Telsa reservation holder gifts is to reserve. No other way to get the swag!
-You can demonstrate your forward thinking to friends, neighbors, and acquaintances - very few people will care exactly where you are in line!
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Canuck said: ?

That's probably true and was the case with the S and the X, however, prior owners may get their cars in Canada before the general public in the States. I also note that Tesla doesn't separate out Canada from the States in their announcement:

"Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. North American deliveries will be first, followed by Europe, Asia and Pacific countries then countries with right-hand drive configurations. Those who own Model S or Model X cars will be offered priority production slots as a special thanks for supporting the Tesla mission."
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I am really hoping you're on to something there, as I had somehow assumed that being on the west coast of Canada would somehow translate to getting our Model 3 earlier.
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Kira said: ?

I am really hoping you're on to something there, as I had somehow assumed that being on the west coast of Canada would somehow translate to getting our Model 3 earlier.
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Buy a Model S or X now and jump to the Tesla owners queue. Think of the fun you'll have while waiting for the Model 3.
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This is exactly why I have been saying it's foolish for Elon to continue to announce backlog #'s. It can only hurt him now. Just let it ride until the next reveal....
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doublejj said: ?

This is exactly why I have been saying it's foolish for Elon to continue to announce backlog #'s. It can only hurt him now. Just let it ride until the next reveal....
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Aside from the potential market value growth that's been experienced from Tesla's consistent updates of the Model 3 reservation tally, Elon and Tesla are attempting to prove the incredible demand that we all had for a car like this. I'm grateful that we have as many reservations as we do because it'll mean Tesla will be well off and continue to innovate for a very long time.
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I ordered within 40 mins of online ordering opening. And being in Australia which is a right hand drive country. I have no doubt you will be months and months in front of me in getting a car if you order now.

Don't let the big number put you off, you are a lot further down the line than a lot of the planet.
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Kira said: ?

I am really hoping you're on to something there, as I had somehow assumed that being on the west coast of Canada would somehow translate to getting our Model 3 earlier.
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Other than the US west to east (for the initial batch) we don't know what the order will be, or what countries will be next. I suspect it will be batches based on location, then order date, then maybe battery size, who knows what other factors.
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StraightDave said: ?

Or you can invest your money instead of loaning it to Tesla who is sitting on a billion in cash.
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Not a horrible idea, but doesn't get OP any closer to Model 3 ownership.

StraightDave said: ?

Elon Musk's net worth is 13 billion by the way.
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To me, this sentence is as relevant to the conversation as saying something like My cat has 6 nipples. Not only does net worth NOT equal spendable liquidity, it also doesn't matter how much money Elon has or doesn't. Yes, he did fund and save the company financially several times but the company is no longer in that stage.
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Two years is a long time. It's likely that a considerable number of people in front of you will cancel their reservations for various reasons, not necessarily because of the car, but because of life.

My next car will not be a five-seat sport sedan, but if I thought it might be I'd go ahead and reserve.

Then again, if you plan to order top-of-the-line, you can probably wait until 2018 to reserve.
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Ranman said: ?

I didn't place an order, and now there are over 300,000 people in front of me. Is there any point in placing an order now? orders are tapering off now. Appreciate your thoughts.
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If you're even considering it, DO IT, DO IT NOWWW!!!

I preordered the day after the reveal just as Elon sent out the tweet saying they were at 198k. I'm kicking myself for not going with my gut and ordering as soon as it was possible. That cost me several months at least.

The difference between 3 years and 4 years is a big deal but fast forward to when they start delivering in the 350k range... do you want to be getting one that day or wait another year or two or whatever?

Considering its refundable, I'm surprised no one else I know has gone ahead with it. Its a no-brainer.
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Jason Bourne said: ?

Not a horrible idea, but doesn't get OP any closer to Model 3 ownership.

To me, this sentence is as relevant to the conversation as saying something like My cat has 6 nipples. Not only does net worth NOT equal spendable liquidity, it also doesn't matter how much money Elon has or doesn't. Yes, he did fund and save the company financially several times but the company is no longer in that stage.
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Exactly, StraightDave is just being difficult and unnecessarily negative/douchey. 2-3% is not a lot of money to reserve a lower tier luxury car, much less one that is based on developing technology. Not to mention, you'd have to be extremely lucky to make a sizeable return on $1,000 in only 3 years. A profit could be made but nothing compared to the first year of gas savings alone. So there is absolutely no reason not to put down the deposit.... even if he chooses to get his refund and go CPO down the road.
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detlefo said: ?

Buy a Model S or X now and jump to the Tesla owners queue. Think of the fun you'll have while waiting for the Model 3.
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I wish that was financially do-able but alas, I will have to rely on c?a?m?p?i?n?g? ?o?u?t? ?o?n? ?E?l?o?n?'?s? ?T?w?i?t?t?e?r? ?f?e?e?d? the TMC forum to provide my daily Tesla fix.
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Also remember that Elon Musk said Tesla may make some special arrangements to maximize the US Tax Credits available. The way the US Tax Credit works that could mean they stop delivering to the US for a short period of time so as to not hit 200K US Sold vehicles until the rollout is in full force. It is a complicated situation. But basically Tesla will want to hit 200K sold in the US at the very beginning of a quarter and then have that quarter and the next to push out vehicles to US market as fast as they can. So they could choose to stop US deliveries for sometime and ship the vehicles to other countries and western Canada is close.
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Tiberius said: ?

If you're even considering it, DO IT, DO IT NOWWW!!!

I preordered the day after the reveal just as Elon sent out the tweet saying they were at 198k. I'm kicking myself for not going with my gut and ordering as soon as it was possible. That cost me several months at least.

The difference between 3 years and 4 years is a big deal but fast forward to when they start delivering in the 350k range... do you want to be getting one that day or wait another year or two or whatever?

Considering its refundable, I'm surprised no one else I know has gone ahead with it. Its a no-brainer.
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i don't think it necessarily will have cost you several months...you're in southern california, right? you're going to be ahead of a large chunk of those 198k people based on that alone. i'm in the same boat (perhaps a little ahead of you in line, but still morning of 4/1 is when i finally got mine to go through). i made two attempts the night of 3/31, but neither one went through...
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crackers8199 said: ?

i don't think it necessarily will have cost you several months...you're in southern california, right? you're going to be ahead of a large chunk of those 198k people based on that alone. i'm in the same boat (perhaps a little ahead of you in line, but still morning of 4/1 is when i finally got mine to go through). i made two attempts the night of 3/31, but neither one went through...
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Yes, I'm near Ontario, CA. I sure hope you're on to something...
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Tiberius said: ?

Yes, I'm near Ontario, CA. I sure hope you're on to something...
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they have always said west coast of the US will get their cars first...i would imagine as long as you were within the first 24 hours or so (like we both were), we'll be near the front of the line. anyone else in CA who ordered before us will be before us, but certainly not the whole 198k people...
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Do you want the $1k on hand more than you think the world needs Tesla's Model 3 to succeed?
Do you want the $1k on hand more than you want to get the car as soon as you can?

If your answer to the above questions is no, then put in a reservation.
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The more orders there are, the more Tesla will have to, and be able to, increase the number of production lines.
And when (not if) the production line is doubled, it will take half as long to get your car.
And when (not if) the production line is tripled, it will take a third as long to get your car.
So order a Model 3. Get everyone you know to order a Model 3.
The more the merrier on this one, for all involved, even the planet!
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To be frank, unless I needed a car, I would not want one of the first Model 3s.

You always want to be in the second or third batch, particularly with Teslas, judging from the Model S deliveries. The car is always being improved, iterated, and little bugs fixed: so, the later you can buy, it's actually beneficial. Likely fewer service visits, too--again, judging from the Model S deliveries.
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Jason Bourne said: ?

Canadian deliveries will be after US deliveries. But why not? By 2019ish, they'll be producing several hundred thousand cars per year.
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I don't think this will necessarily be true, I think a very early pre order in Vancouver might even get their car before a very early pre order in New York. I would think they might use Canadian deliveries to maximize US tax credits.
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There were 325,000 reservations made in the first week. There could easily be 1,000,000 reservations by the time of the launch.

So the question is, would you prefer to have place number 350,001 or 1,000,001?

Also, given the number of reservations, the ramp-up will likely be much faster than people were expecting before March 31.
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Aren't N.A. regional order queues emptied before moving eastward? In other words, early East coast orders are still behind any West coast orders, regardless of order date.
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I did it. I placed my order.
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crackers8199 said: ?

they have always said west coast of the US will get their cars first...i would imagine as long as you were within the first 24 hours or so (like we both were), we'll be near the front of the line. anyone else in CA who ordered before us will be before us, but certainly not the whole 198k people...
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Yes, but by the the production begins, there could be 198,000 more globally, in California, or just in southern California! Since orders will be batched, and it's up to 325,000 now, orders that are from California just before the start of production, could conceivably be built after the first RHD orders from Australia are filled.
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Ranman said: ?

I did it. I placed my order.
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Congrats! After your Tesla email arrives get your reservation information on the My Tesla tab at their website if you haven't already. Should be faster than when they were getting 100,000s of orders a day!
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zenmaster said: ?

Aren't N.A. regional order queues emptied before moving eastward? In other words, early East coast orders are still behind any West coast orders, regardless of order date.
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I don't think they said that at all. They are going to start close to the factory, and once they are comfortable that the cars are coming out with good quality they will start moving eastward. Probably what matters most is your option load. "Stripper" cars will essentially be the last ones made. Just like nobody has gotten a 70 kWh version of the Model X yet, and we are 5 months in to the production. (Or at least I haven't heard of a 70 X shipping yet.)

Though they are opening the Model X design studio up to everyone on Monday, so the 70s might start rolling off the lines soon.

So if it took 5 months to open the design studio to non-reservations with the small demand for the Model X, how long do you think it will be for the Model 3?
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EinSV said: ?

Also, given the number of reservations, the ramp-up will likely be much faster than people were expecting before March 31.
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This is pure speculation, correct? All production projections I've read from official Tesla press (and related news reports) have been a max of 500,000/year, and that presumably includes all model lines. And this figure was released before the first M3 reservations were taken. I'm under the impression that this production figure is based on a realistic assessment of manufacturing capability, not demand. What makes you think they can produce cars at a faster rate than that?
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Pdub2015 said: ?

This is pure speculation, correct? All production projections I've read from official Tesla press (and related news reports) have been a max of 500,000/year, and that presumably includes all model lines. And this figure was released before the first M3 reservations were taken. I'm under the impression that this production figure is based on a realistic assessment of manufacturing capability, not demand. What makes you think they can produce cars at a faster rate than that?
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But that isn't what he said, he said: "the ramp-up will likely be much faster than people were expecting before March 31." i.e. with the Model X they started at a few cars a week, and it took them a couple months to get up to 1,000 cars/week. Hopefully with the Model 3 they will ramp-up much faster. How long it takes to get from 0/week to ~6,500 Model 3s/week. (I'm figuring that there will be ~3,000 Model S/X cars made per week.)
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Pdub,

Not speculation at all. Based on Elon's recent tweets I think it is fair to say that the earlier production estimates are out the window:

"Looks like we may need to increase production plans for the Model 3"

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Definitely going to need to rethink production planning..."

Elon Musk on Twitter

We will have to wait for details on exactly what that means, but whatever the details I think it would be a mistake to make plans based on older production estimates. Now that Tesla has at least some sense of the magnitude of the demand, they can build the production capacity to handle it.
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MP3Mike said: ?

But that isn't what he said, he said: "the ramp-up will likely be much faster than people were expecting before March 31." i.e. with the Model X they started at a few cars a week, and it took them a couple months to get up to 1,000 cars/week. Hopefully with the Model 3 they will ramp-up much faster. How long it takes to get from 0/week to ~6,500 Model 3s/week. (I'm figuring that there will be ~3,000 Model S/X cars made per week.)
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Exactly what I meant. I would add that it could eventually be more than 6500/week if they build a second factory.
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FWIW, I ordered a couple of days ago and probably am in the #250,000-300,000 range. My logic:

My 2013 S85 will be 6 years old in 2019. I will be ready for a new Tesla. Would get to see a 3 in 2018 and then decide. I would plan my order and delivery as appropriate and as I am offered the opportunity to configure/order. I would/could defer one time (per the reservation agreement) to better align delivery with my need/desire to retire my S85.
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Ranman said: ?

I didn't place an order, and now there are over 300,000 people in front of me. Is there any point in placing an order now? orders are tapering off now. Appreciate your thoughts.
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Do you want to get your car before 2020? You should probably place a reservation now.

I know I don't want a new car until 2021, so I've been holding off on placing a reservation. But if the queue gets over 2 million, I probably will...
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MP3Mike said: ?

I don't think they said that at all. They are going to start close to the factory, and once they are comfortable that the cars are coming out with good quality they will start moving eastward. Probably what matters most is your option load. "Stripper" cars will essentially be the last ones made.
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I understand the logic, however I talked to a Tesla salesperson today who thought that, based on West to East queuing, indeed most of the US would have their cars going into production before those on the East coast. He confirmed that late queuers on the West would have priority over early queuers on the East.
Once M3 production is ready, Tesla could later decide to limit the number of orders fulfilled at once for each region based on options and/or some arbitrary cut off point, but they have not stated how they would do so.
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Pdub2015 said: ?

...All production projections I've read from official Tesla press (and related news reports) have been a max of 500,000/year, and that presumably includes all model lines.
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I think Elon said the Fremont, CA plant had previously produced 500,000 vehicles per year. He did not say that they would not build any other manufacturing plants!
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Ranman said: ?

I didn't place an order, and now there are over 300,000 people in front of me. Is there any point in placing an order now? orders are tapering off now. Appreciate your thoughts.
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The Idea is that you are purchasing a car that you want and like but most of all you will be getting a car of the future. A car will be on the forefront to the end of gasoline engine cars.
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zenmaster said: ?

I understand the logic, however I talked to a Tesla salesperson today who thought that, based on West to East queuing, indeed most of the US would have their cars going into production before those on the East coast. He confirmed that late queuers on the West would have priority over early queuers on the East.
Once M3 production is ready, Tesla could later decide to limit the number of orders fulfilled at once for each region based on options and/or some arbitrary cut off point, but they have not stated how they would do so.
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I would put zero faith in what a Tesla salesperson said regarding production/delivery order. Tesla tends not to tell them anything that isn't publicly announced, and Tesla certainly hasn't given out that many details.
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MP3Mike said: ?

I would put zero faith in what a Tesla salesperson said regarding production/delivery order. Tesla tends not to tell them anything that isn't publicly announced, and Tesla certainly hasn't given out that many details.
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Yes, I am questioning his info, that's why I'm (still) asking for simple clarification on the subject. I suppose he could have honestly just said "I don't know", but that must have been his understanding/interpretation based on Tesla's ambiguous statements.
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jeffhre said: ?

Yes, but by the the production begins, there could be 198,000 more globally, in California, or just in southern California! Since orders will be batched, and it's up to 325,000 now, orders that are from California just before the start of production, could conceivably be built after the first RHD orders from Australia are filled.
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not sure why you quoted me, i wasn't saying he shouldn't place an order...was just pointing out that CA is likely ahead of everyone else.
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ikjadoon said: ?

To be frank, unless I needed a car, I would not want one of the first Model 3s.

You always want to be in the second or third batch, particularly with Teslas, judging from the Model S deliveries. The car is always being improved, iterated, and little bugs fixed: so, the later you can buy, it's actually beneficial. Likely fewer service visits, too--again, judging from the Model S deliveries.
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i can think of 7500 reasons to want to be in the first batch...
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MP3Mike said: ?

But that isn't what he said, he said: "the ramp-up will likely be much faster than people were expecting before March 31." i.e. with the Model X they started at a few cars a week, and it took them a couple months to get up to 1,000 cars/week. Hopefully with the Model 3 they will ramp-up much faster. How long it takes to get from 0/week to ~6,500 Model 3s/week. (I'm figuring that there will be ~3,000 Model S/X cars made per week.)
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Good point. I agree with this (and you and EInSV).

DrPhoton said: ?

I think Elon said the Fremont, CA plant had previously produced 500,000 vehicles per year. He did not say that they would not build any other manufacturing plants!
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This is true, however the time (and resources!) it would take to either purchase and retool an existing factory or build a new one would most likely have an negative impact on meeting production demand in a timely fashion. Now, THAT is pure speculation on my part.

Still, to the OP's question, because we're standing on virgin terrain... Tesla has never faced nor met this current challenge before... we are all really speculating as to the value of early reservations over later ones. It's both thrilling to see such demand and kind of disheartening knowing that there will be a long wait. And in the meantime, the anti-Tesla press will be releasing story after story denigrating the brand and causing worry about the cars.

Life moves too fast as it is, without having a reason to wish it were 2018 already! Sheesh! Personally, I'm waiting until the first deliveries are made before submitting my order. So no reservation swag for me!
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Being east coaster who waited in line on the 31st.... I'd expect to take delivery before other east coasters who may have waited for the reveal or even decided to reserve days later online but is it wrong of me to want their wait to be at least 4-6 weeks or more? I suppose it's hard to tell before options are decided upon.
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crackers8199 said: ?

not sure why you quoted me, i wasn't saying he shouldn't place an order...was just pointing out that CA is likely ahead of everyone else.
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Just pointing out that even in prioritized California, if someone waits until deliveries begin to order - the line could be extremely long.
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Pdub2015 said: ?

This is pure speculation, correct? All production projections I've read from official Tesla press (and related news reports) have been a max of 500,000/year, and that presumably includes all model lines. And this figure was released before the first M3 reservations were taken. I'm under the impression that this production figure is based on a realistic assessment of manufacturing capability, not demand. What makes you think they can produce cars at a faster rate than that?
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Elon MuskVerified account
@elonmusk
Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity & PayPal

Tesla's Model 3 already has 198,000 reservations ...and it totally lives up to the hype http://bloom.bg/1pQcn2u

2,260 retweets3,859 likes

Elon Musk [email�protected] Apr 1
Definitely going to need to rethink production planning...

If this was the thinking at 198,000, where does that lead to a 325,000?
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Short answer is yes, you should. Or anyone else reading this thats on the fence.

Long answer - You're not 325k back of everyone. Best estimate from model s numbers suggest that all sales are roughly half of US and the rest worldwide. If we use that as an example, you're 163k back behind of everyone. Add options and your location and now you're up even further.

So the question now should be will you qualify for the rebate? Personally, I believe you will. It could be for the full $7500 or it could be for the other two smaller ones but I think there's a good chance you get one of them. Why? Because tesla will probably have 6 months of production over the 200k limit. If they time is right, which logically only makes sense for them to do, they'll reach the 200k mark the first day of the quarter. Every car delivered that quarter will get the full 7500 buck rebate. In addition, the next quarter after that is a "free quarter" meaning every car delivered in that quarter will get the full $7500 rebate. Then the next 2 quarters will get $3750, and finally the next 2 quarter after that will get $1875.

So, add that all up. That's 18 months of rebates after the 200k cutoff.

The only question for me is how fast can they ramp up production during that time so everyone gets one of the rebates.

If they can roll and hit their strive of the model 3 production at the right time, there could be tens if not hundreds of thousands of vehicles during that 18 month window for rebates.

Just my humbling opinion...but logically it makes sense to me.

G
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As someone else said Elon mentioned that they are going to use the location of reservations for planning where to deploy Superchargers and Service Centers. So it is important for people to place a reservation so that the planning is as accurate as possible.
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Bimbels said: ?

Other than the US west to east (for the initial batch) we don't know what the order will be, or what countries will be next. I suspect it will be batches based on location, then order date, then maybe battery size, who knows what other factors.
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I believe it's North America first. So while US May get cars first, it would imply Canafa and Mexico would follow.
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crackers8199 said: ?

i can think of 7500 reasons to want to be in the first batch...
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Hahahaha, right. Maybe the most fair option is then the tax credit goes to who ordered first, not who gets delivery first. Not sure if that's possible with the tax credit, though.
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Can someone explain where this idea of "batches" originated?
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zenmaster said: ?

Can someone explain where this idea of "batches" originated?
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Because Elon said they would start with highly optioned west coast cars first.....=batch
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doublejj said: ?

Because Elon said they would start with highly optioned west coast cars first.....=batch
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right, right that is a priority, a type, and a start of production. From there, what is end of production or volume of this "batch".
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Rowsby said: ?

I would think there are several factors that might help you decide...

{snip}

2: Model Y will likely be announced before M3 gets to mass production. You could transfer your reservation early, if you liked it better.
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Nobody's mentioned this yet, but I strongly doubt there will be any announcement of the rumored Model Y until the M3 is in production, unless the Y would be delivered at about the same time, or be a totally different sort of vehicle as to not compete with the 3. This is Elon Musk we're talking about, not Adam Osborne. (Osborne effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
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zenmaster said: ?

Can someone explain where this idea of "batches" originated?
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Common practice in manufacturing, particularly with complex products. The Tesla assembly lines have to be adjusted to build each variant of car, so similarly equipped cars are produced in batches. Then they stop the line, adjust, and then produce a different variation.
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Pdub2015 said: ?

Common practice in manufacturing, particularly with complex products. The Tesla assembly lines have to be adjusted to build each variant of car, so similarly equipped cars are produced in batches. Then they stop the line, adjust, and then produce a different variation.
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Hmm, may be common practice but I never heard of it. I toured a local BMW factory and the wildly different configured cars were definitely not "batched" in this manner. For example, the right and left hand drives, base/performance engines, 2WD/4WD, colors, wheels, etc were being randomly assembled on the same line, with absolutely zero line delay.

I guess the batching question is in the context of the Model 3 delivery schedule discussed in this thread, where people were inferring their notion of "batches" would somehow demarcate a regional delivery schedule. That begs the question of how that would work.
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Zenmaster, I toured that plant and was surprised at the apparently random mix of versions and colors. The BMW plant is state of the art. Tesla should be even more so. Having said that are there any limits in Tesla's plant since it was a Toyota/GM plant?
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PJFW8 said: ?

Having said that are there any limits in Tesla's plant since it was a Toyota/GM plant?
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Typically, automotive assembly plants are completely re-worked with the introduction of each new model (i.e., factory is gutted and new machines brought in). So I would doubt there is anything left over from Toyota or GM at this point.
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I just signed up today, April 11th...I have a prius plug in and am addicted to driving in the HOV lane by myself. The green stickers expire at the end of 2018, and I expect a new program from California to kick in. I am expecting the min vehicle will be full electric with a range over 150 miles...

So, you think I will get mine before January 2019 ?
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Zenmaster, were they (Beemer) building different models on that line, or variations of a single model?
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Pdub2015 said: ?

Zenmaster, were they (Beemer) building different models on that line, or variations of a single model?
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I'm not Zenmaster, but the BMW factory in Greenville, SC has different lines for different style cars (i.e. SUVs on one line, cars on another). Within each line, however, they produce all variants of that vehicle. So left-hand and right-hand cars go down the same line, different option levels, etc. They can even paint each car a completely different color, so they aren't even batching that.

I last toured that facility five years ago, so it might be different now, but I doubt it. I also think that most manufacturers are doing it that way now, but I don't know for sure.
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Having no personal experience with either the Tesla or BMW factories, I'm willing to be wrong about my assumption that Tesla's batching was due to production processes. If Tesla's assembly line is indeed tooled to produce "any variation at any time" then perhaps the rationale for batching is based on supply chain or other financial factors?
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Well, they still may be "batching" based on other reasons. I would assume the main reason is financial (make the most money from each car on the line), but it could also be for other reasons. Things like limited production from suppliers that make it easier to start with fewer available options. Then slotting in the addition components as they become available. For example, the seat vendor may only deliver leather seats for the first few months, and then add in the other materials later. That makes it easier for both Tesla and the vendors to ramp up production while still delivering cars.
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crackers8199 said: ?

i can think of 7500 reasons to want to be in the first batch...
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I think you mean 3750 reasons since the second batch gets 3750 less than 7500.
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zenmaster said: ?

Can someone explain where this idea of "batches" originated?
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There are different ideas of where to divide the batches.

There used to be Founders vs Signature vs production

There have been details like pre folding mirrors vs post folding mirrors

There are separations like US before Canada before Europe before China that have happened in the past.

Pre Dual motor / Autopilot vs Dual Motor with Autopilot.

There isn't an official batch number or separation and every one will continue talking past each other no matter what you say.
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I think the general thought its initially anyway, they will batch by larger battery size/P versions, then non P large battery sizes, etc. But with the huge number of orders now, and the likelihood they will have multiple lines at the start of ramp, who knows....
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Az_Rael said: ?

Wow, lots of folks in for the late reservation here. I guess it depends on what car you are going to order. If you are going to get a "highly optioned" car, then you might be able to wait until cars start shipping and jump ahead of others in line. I believe you can do that now with an X by ordering a P model.

If you are trying to get a base model, the longer you wait, the longer it will be to get the car. Might as well jump in if you have the cash.
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All the speculation, interpretation, and analysis in the world, is not going the change the fact, that, If you don't reserve, you can't conserve. Not to mention, getting to run around in your beautiful new Tesla, at the earliest possible time!!!

Scannerman
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I want to reserve a spot but do you get a number?
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JmBHardwood said: ?

I want to reserve a spot but do you get a number?
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You don't get a number to where you are in line but you will be issued a reservation number. Pull the trigger and join the family.
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Gilzo said: ?

You don't get a number to where you are in line but you will be issued a reservation number. Pull the trigger and join the family.
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Ok ill order as soon as i can, thanks for the response. Super stoked!!
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If I were getting even 5% I might hesitate. This refundable deposit buys a rare opportunity. I now "pretend" I am an owner!
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PJFW8 said: ?

If I were getting even 5% I might hesitate. This refundable deposit buys a rare opportunity. I now "pretend" I am an owner!
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I'm with you! I feel like I entered a super fun lottery where we all win, but don't know when.0????
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ikjadoon said: ?

Hahahaha, right. Maybe the most fair option is then the tax credit goes to who ordered first, not who gets delivery first. Not sure if that's possible with the tax credit, though.
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i don't think that's possible, i believe it's based on delivery.
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dhanson865 said: ?

I think you mean 3750 reasons since the second batch gets 3750 less than 7500.
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no...i did say FIRST batch, not second batch. i think we're all reasonably sure that at least some of the model 3s will get the full credit if not a large number of them...hence wanting to be in the first batch.
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crackers8199 said: ?

no...i did say FIRST batch, not second batch. i think we're all reasonably sure that at least some of the model 3s will get the full credit if not a large number of them...hence wanting to be in the first batch.
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Right you want to be in the first batch which is 7500, if you miss that by one car and are in the 3750 you only miss out on 3750 so you only have 3750 reasons if you see my point.
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dhanson865 said: ?

Right you want to be in the first batch which is 7500, if you miss that by one car and are in the 3750 you only miss out on 3750 so you only have 3750 reasons if you see my point.
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Well you wouldn't miss it by one car you would miss it by one day. (Since the expiration is time based once Tesla reaches their 200,000th US car delivery.)
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MP3Mike said: ?

Well you wouldn't miss it by one car you would miss it by one day. (Since the expiration is time based once Tesla reaches their 200,000th US car delivery.)
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True, it's a better wording to say by one day but which day matters, is it day of delivery? Day of confirmation? Day of payment?

If day of delivery a single car ahead of you could push you back a day because your delivery specialist is booked up.

It's all those what ifs bouncing around my head that allow me to sometimes change that one word to the what if I'm thinking about instead of just sticking to the wording of the rule.
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Hi, I've just placed my reservation yesterday, April 21th. But I live in a Bay Area, and I am prepared to wait! Just wondering how it works, if they say the will start deliver from west coast, so does it mean I will potentially get a car sooner that someone from east coast who were standing in line or ordered online at the first day?
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Last I knew the cars were delivered in batches - west coast current owners, then west coast new, central current, central new, etc. Basically trying to save on delivery costs by moving the deliveries in waves.

However, the approach doesn't say how big each batch will be. Maybe 10K, maybe 20K, maybe 2K. Deliveries around the Bay Area will likely happen as soon as they can, without jumping the line tooo much. (is 100K too much? don't know)

It does seem unlikely you'd jump the line by 300K though. If I was you, I'd figure on getting the car (based on current estimates) about mid-late 2018. And after saying that, I think that might be optimistic. We've no idea how fast they'll be able to build these. Could be 100K per quarter, could be only 100K per year.
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Thanks, Jason S!

Anyway, I glad I am reserved at least now. Will relax and watch now.
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dhanson865 said: ?

Right you want to be in the first batch which is 7500, if you miss that by one car and are in the 3750 you only miss out on 3750 so you only have 3750 reasons if you see my point.
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i see what you're saying, but i didn't say first vs second...i said first batch. it's entirely possible depending how low you are on the list you could miss all the credits altogether...nobody knows.
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teslamotorclub

Thứ Ba, 31 tháng 1, 2017

Any point in placing an order now? part 1

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