Sep 17, 2014
yobigd20 the report is written by battery skeptic Menahem Anderman, organizer of the Advanced Automotive Batteries Conference for the last 20 years.
"Anderman states that there is a high probability that the "low-cost" Tesla model will be priced in excess of $50,000. He said that in the most probable scenario, the car will be priced somewhere in the range of $50,000 to $80,000."
sources:
Jalopnik Is the Tesla Model 3 actually going to cost $50-$80k?
refers to
Tesla Battery Cost: New Report Suggests Model 3 To Cost $50K Or More
which links Anderson's report:
The Tesla Battery Report 2014 - Overview - Advanced Automotive Batteries
http://advancedautobat.com/industry-reports/2014-Tesla-report/Tesla-Battery-Report-Brochure.pdf
"Dr. Anderman�s insightful report analyzes Tesla�s success to date and forecasts the impact it will have on automakers, battery producers, and the future of the EV industry."
"In the most likely scenario, Anderman writes, 'the price of the 2017 new model will be in the range of $50k-80k.'"
I dont have access to the report itself, as it costs $2800, so I don't know what data points he is using to conclude a price range of $50k-$80k. (man, maybe I should quit my job and start writing battery reports, lol). but I guess the gist of it is that he thinks reaching a $35k is virtually impossible.I hope Elon proves this guy way wrong!
another web story about it now:
Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) News Analysis: Tesla Motors' Model 3 Might Set You Back $50,000�
Sep 17, 2014
Zythryn That is a lot more than a penny a click:scared:�
Sep 17, 2014
Skotty I can already forecast the end result of this. The Model 3 will have a base price starting in the mid to high 30's for a smaller battery version (still 200+ miles) and no options. But there may very well be a bigger battery option that pushes the price into the 40's, then add a few options and it goes over 50K. Most test mules will be the over 50K variety. Anderman will claim he was correct because the typical car will be over 50K, while others will claim he was wrong because the base model starts in the 30's. Everyone claims to have been correct. No one admits to being wrong. The end.�
Sep 17, 2014
Kevin Harney Well in his partial defense he is talking about the 2017 prices and Elon - to my best recollection - was talking about today's dollars. I am expecting they will start about $40K and option out about $90K in 2017 or 2018.�
Sep 17, 2014
art will the next cell thats 10 % bigger, be the same price as the old one, and will it be 14 to 28% better than the old one plus the 10 %? figuring 7% per year.�
Sep 17, 2014
Vger Sure there will be versions of the Model 3 that go up to 50K, but that is not Anderman's mistaken point. He seems to be claiming that Tesla will fail completely at making the 30+% cost reductions in the batteries they have claimed. Based on the tone in Elon's and JB's voices on the last quarterly conference call, I would not bet against them (pretty much never would!).
Elon seems to be, shall we say, supremely confident that a 30% cost reduction is within two years, and a 50+% cost reduction (to ~$100/kWh) is within sight in 5-7 years.�
Sep 17, 2014
mknox I wonder if Tesla's Model 3 pricing is "after incentives" like it was for the initial sub-$50k Model S when it came out? Those incentives could very well start disappearing.�
Sep 17, 2014
Kevin Harney No Elon was clear that it was NOT including any incentives.�
Sep 17, 2014
ckessel Yep, exactly this.
$40k for the "no one will actually buy this" model. $50k for a reasonable base model. $80k for a super maxed out performance model.�
Sep 17, 2014
FredTMC Yes, and all the initial Model 3 cars sold (signature series) will be max out versions. Following the Model S roll-out, the largest battery version of the car will be delivered (with some options mandatory). Then finally, the base model will be delivered. The base model will of course have the longest delivery wait times� maybe as long as 6mo-12mo after initial Model 3 deliveries commence.�
Sep 17, 2014
yobigd20 I don't think Tesla will make any $80k versions of the Model 3. I remember Elon saying that the Model 3 will be less luxurious than the Model S for several reasons. Obviously to cut costs for one. But also to keep a clear distinction between the two models. If you want performance and luxury, buy the Model S. If you want 'economy' (for lack of a better terminology), buy the Model 3. I still expect the Model 3 to have a decent punch to it just because it'll still have the instantaneous power and torque effect of electric vehicles, but I seriously doubt you'll have a performance Model 3 version and it'll lack some of the expensive features of the MS (like no rear facing seats, no air suspension, no 21" tires, no performance inverter, no "plus" suspension options). I can't see anything substantial adding to the cost of the base price of Model 3 except for maybe a bigger battery pack and a subset of the Model S tech package. Again, Elon said that the more expensive luxury options will stay with the Model S & X. You won't find them in the Model 3. If you want those, get the Model S. I expect the price of the Model 3 to vary between $35k base price and $50k maxed out. that $50k will be made up of the base price plus maybe $10k for bigger battery pack and ~$5k in options (basic options like parking sensors, etc).�
Sep 17, 2014
ckessel I was mostly going from the 60k->120k gap that exists with the S to extrapolate the 40k->80k. Maybe 70k at the higher end since bumps from the battery cost won't be quite as harsh in the 3.
I think the 3 will, at the high end, have the same luxuries as the S or X. The market will require it. The 3 is a smaller car, but it's still a premium car to compete with the smaller BMWs and those have lots of luxury buy up options. The size of the 3 is really the car I wanted. The S is quick for it's size, but in smaller streets and tight parking lots it's like trying to pilot a small cruise ship.�
Sep 17, 2014
richkae I think that would be a huge mistake.
The demand for the performance Model 3 will be huge. The demand for a good EV that is physically smaller than the Model S will be huge.
There is nothing wrong with selling $80K versions of the Model 3 with gobs of performance, even luxury features - just smaller than the Model S.�
Sep 17, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Yes: mid-size and smaller is where the real action is. They certainly aren't going to get lots of sales in Japan of the full-size car.
Elon Musk has implied mirroring the wide range of the 3 series.
I would expect that the Model S/X will be the premium, bleeding edge platform that gets the cool toys first.
- $100 x 60 (reduce battery price by $100)
- $100 x 75 (reduce power of base model to 150kW from 225kW on the S60: $100/kW stated as near future by JB Straubel at the storage symposium)
= - $13,500
That would be $56,500; without capacity reduction, with a significant but not completely insane battery price reduction.
Hoping for base+cold weather <= $40k.�
Sep 17, 2014
ecarfan Anderman predicts Model 3 will cost between $50k-$80k, far above Tesla estima...
Agreed. Of course the 3 will have a high power version and lots of options that will being its price up into S territory: that's where the higher margins are and there will be lots of buyers who want a smaller vehicle but with all the performance and cool features that a loaded S has!
Yes many people will buy the base 3 because it will be a great car with 200 miles of range and they can afford it. But even more will add options and performance that they can afford.
The 3 is going to massively outsell the S/X and will be able to meet Elon's promised price target in 2017 dollars. Tesla now has the experience and resources to pull it off.
A few decades from now people will look back and credit Elon with launching the electric car revolution and upending the car industry with the Model 3.�
Sep 17, 2014
vinnie97 I would just like an electric car with decent range that I can afford. I suspect there are many more like me. Do you think the pool to which I belong is smaller than the pool that wants a decked out $50k+ electric vehicle. I find that hard to believe.�
Sep 17, 2014
ecarfan Anderman predicts Model 3 will cost between $50k-$80k, far above Tesla estima...
The sales pattern of the S shows that few people bought the base price model, which of course is still a very expensive car at $70k (before any credits or rebates). I think the average S price is over $88K.
I suspect the 3 will be similar: the majority of sales will be well over the price of the base model, which will be well above the average US new car price. In part that will be because initially Tesla will only sell special "Signature" editions which will have additional options and be priced higher than the base model, just as they did with the S, and in part because people who can afford to pay at least $35K for the base 3 will find they want to stretch their financial resources to get a 3 with the options they want, just like many buyers have been doing with the S.
There is no direct Model S competitor so if you want that type of car you have no where else to go. I think even by 2017 there will be no direct Model 3 competitor when it launches, and that will drive the buying behavior I have just described.
That is not to say that the market size for low priced vehicles is smaller than the market size for expensive vehicles. Of course that is not the case.�
Sep 17, 2014
tomas I've got a bargain for you. If you send me just $1400 via paypal, I will send you my scenario of the price for the Model 3, as well as a full breakdown of the facts and analysis behind it.
Buy today, and I'll also include the price for the Model X.
Plus, today only, a free Tesla hat. Absolutely free!�
Sep 17, 2014
richkae My gut feeling ( that I don't have data to back up ) is that a car with a base price of $70K ends up with a lot more expensive options than a car with a $35K base price. Even percentage wise.
Another factor is this: there is only ONE kind of car that serves the market of people looking for a full featured ( 200+ mile ) EV. The Model S. It serves the entire market from $70K to infinity. If you have infinity dollars, you still buy a Model S, you just load it with everything. That brings the average up. If you have less than $70K dollars ( via financing, whatever ) you don't get one.
When the Model 3 comes out there will be 2 price segment choices that serve the market for people who want a 200+ mile EV. The Model 3. And the Models S&X.
The S&X will continue to capture most of the people who wanted to spend a lot of money - only losing some to the Model 3 who really wanted a smaller car.�
Sep 17, 2014
Model 3 No. A year or two ago he was talking about $30k "today's dollars", and later clarified this to be $35k without that disclaimer and without tax-credit.
So base price in 2017 will be close to $35k, and (my estimate) with all options up to near the double (around $60-70k).�
Sep 17, 2014
MSEV I read the threads that said it will be on the lower end of the cost spectrum, and I agreed.
Then I read the threads that said it will option out to nearly as high as the S, and I agreed with those threads.
So, I agree with all of you.
We don't know for sure what they will do, with both alternatives (a "lower" priced 200+ mi EV or options with high margins) making sense.�
Sep 17, 2014
vinnie97 ^I'm not made of money and don't need/desire the performance/luxury options (just the range, ma'am), so I vote for the former.�
Sep 17, 2014
AmpedUP I think that with the introduction of the Model III , big changes to the Model S will also be introduced as a means of differentiating the two all the more. Luxury appointments that many have complained are lacking in the Model S of today will be introduced, all while keeping the price the same because the less expensive battery pack will keep the bottom line in check. I do think the Model III at 35K would be very basic if it makes it to that price at all. I think 45K will probably be the base.�
Sep 17, 2014
JST Anderman predicts Model 3 will cost between $50k-$80k, far above Tesla estima...
I suspect that the Model 3 will track BMW 3 series pricing; mid 40s to 80s (base model to max performance) sounds right to me.�
Sep 17, 2014
CHG-ON Tesla needs a volume car to build a solid revenue stream. If they don't come in somewhere in the mid 30"s, that could make it tough for them. Look at Mercedes and how they have grown their lower cost cars. It gives them the ability to go all out on the top line models because of the cash that the 200 series gives them. I could see the Model 3, or whatever, starting in the mid 30's and optioning out to the 45 range. Look at every other premium car builder. But they won't be able to afford the level of support they now offer for the Model S. They will need to be very careful to differentiate between the two without cheapening the Models S/X (high end) or killing themselves with service costs on the cheapo models. Lastly, battery cost will drop precipitously as battery production volume grows, as it does for every new tech. Elon's strategy of opening up patents helps them to get there. Clearly, that is the main reason he did it. He NEEDS Toyota, GM, Ford, Mercedes, BMW to get on board as they will be the ones to lower cost through their ability to crank up volume based on their size, engineering size and wealth.
This development model has been repeated over and over again since the mid 1800s with the battle of John Deere, International Harvester and Ford. The news guys innovate, the big old guys develop and expand. Tesla's challenge will be to stay relevant as the big boys try to take over.
As an investor and a owner (on 9-26, dammit!), I think they are the right track.�
Sep 17, 2014
purplewalt As long as the Model 3s are flying off the assembly line to eagerly waiting customers (with a huge backlog of orders), and TM is still making a decent profit per unit sold, it really doesn't matter what the cost is.
The overall market will dictate what the cars can sell for and what people are willing to pay.
There certainly is (and will continue to be) a market for a basic $35 K electric car with a beginning range of ~200 miles, as there is only one being manufactured right now (Model S).
And if there is a fully Optioned out Model 3, it has access to the Supercharger network and can outrun and frustrate BMW 3s all day long, so much the better.
The better mousetrap is what competition is all about.�
Sep 18, 2014
David_Cary I agree with the BMW 3 series pricing but in that regard, very few sold are the $80k model. From what I see, the vast majority of 3 series out there are the less than $50k variety. But I see a lot of tricked out Model S's. There is a very different math out there when you are paying close to $100k for a car vs $50k for a car. The amount of disposable income in this country is not spread out evenly at all.
As someone said earlier, the percentage spent on options seems much higher on more expensive cars. As someone who is price conscious, I would get a pretty lean Model S. And I'd be buying a 3 if it was available.
It seems that the newer trend of 3 series is to have almost all the 5 options available but not taken. You can spend a lot on a 3 but people rarely do.�
Sep 18, 2014
Trev Page Based on comments that Elon has said many times, they're aiming to compete with the BMW 3 series. That means size, options and pricing in my books. If you want a good idea of what the Model 3 will cost then go to the BMW website of your country and spec one out. I had a 1999 328i and it was nicely optioned at around $49K and I was very happy with it, nay the bet car I've owned.
I'm fully prepared to spend around $50K for a Model 3 then with a decent downpayment from redirected payments from my current car, which gets paid off in a year and a half, and selling my current car combined with any rebates, should bring the financed cost to around $32K. That's cheap in my books considering I won't be paying for gas anymore to the tune of $3500 a year. I'm in Canada so gas prices and car prices are much higher than in the US.�
Sep 18, 2014
JST My guess is that you are right that the option mix on the Model 3 will skew lower than the option mix on the Model S. At the same time, it would not surprise me if higher-optioned cars constituted a higher percentage of Model 3 sales than for the BMW 3 series.
One thing to keep in mind in these pricing discussions is that BMW typically offers very attractive leasing prices. Whether that's because BMWs typically have strong resale or because BMW is aggressively subsidizing the cap cost is a bit of an open question, but in my experience a BMW is going to generally be cheaper to lease than an Audi, even where those two cars have similar sticker prices.
I think one of the real challenges facing Tesla as it moves into the "mainstream luxury" market is how to deal with leasing, financing, and trade-ins. Customers at the Model S price point are much more likely to have some flexibility on these issues than customers at the 3 series price point--what works for selling Model Ss isn't likely to be as successful in the mainstream luxury segment.
Will we see Tesla offering subsidized leases? I doubt it, mostly because they won't need to but partly because they don't have the financial scale to do so.�
Sep 18, 2014
ckessel At 500,000 a year, I also wonder if Tesla will start using the franchise model. I forget if it was Elon or Diarmuid or Deepak, but at one point they said that while dealerships didn't suit Tesla right now, they weren't fundamentally opposed to them and might revisit their model when shipping a true mass market car. They could still keep the "one price" thing since there's already precedent for that by a "normal" manufacturer (Saturn, I think it was).
Or maybe Tesla manages to scale up their staff to handle a 10x increase in stores/service centers in a few years?�
Sep 18, 2014
JST That's an interesting question. The whole "one price" thing works for now because demand is higher than supply. Same was true for Mini for the first 5 or so years they were operating in the US; cars basically sold for MSRP. Even as late as 2011 it was hard to get more than $500 off sticker. These days, Mini discounts much more aggressively.
I have to wonder how Tesla will handle it once the shiny newness of the brand wears off a bit and the supply catches up with demand. One of the big advantages of franchising is that it spreads the risk. 'Til now that hasn't been much of an issue, but will that always be true?
I'm very bullish on Tesla's long-term prospects, but those who argue that the company represents a complete reinvention of the way cars are sold remind me a bit of the folks who in 1997 said that the Internet was transformative and that we'd seen the end of business cycles as we knew them.�
Sep 18, 2014
wallet.dat Because the only cost reduction will be from the battery pack. Everything else will cost exactly the same as the Model S.
/sarcasm�
Sep 18, 2014
Tasdevil I think the model X price will give some insight into how well tesla are going with lowering costs.�
Sep 19, 2014
robby I don't think the cost to build the X will have any impact on the sale price of the X.�
Sep 19, 2014
EVNow Isn't that the case esp. with competitors in the 150 to 200 mile EV segment ? If they are price conscious, they will get a Leaf 2 or a rumored Chevy 200 mile BEV - and if not buy Model 3 well optioned. Ofcourse the total Model 3 sales will be less with competition in the segment compared to what it could be without any competition.�
Sep 25, 2014
Reykjavik In the part of the report that I can actually see, he assumes that the battery will be 70 kWh. Considering that the Model S 60 KWh achieves an EPA rated 208 miles, I think it is a pretty amateurish mistake to think a smaller 200 mile car will need a battery that is larger.
Still, if based on battery savings alone, and increasing the battery size by nearly 20% results in shaving $20,000 off the base price, I'm quite optimistic that Tesla will be able to get the cost reduction they need.�
Sep 25, 2014
Trev Page Model X is built on the same platform as Model S so don't expect any cost savings. We all know the price will be higher due to the extra motor, doors etc...
The real cost savings will come with the Gen 3 platform and the Gigafactory. Model S and X will remain premium cars in terms of price until Tesla designs them from the ground up (Gen 4?)�
Sep 25, 2014
Genebe ^^ This
The Model S legitimized Tesla as a manufacturer to the skeptics. The Model X will show they're not just a 1-trick pony, and will raise brand awareness, but it's still going to be a premium vehicle (and rightly so).
The Model 3 will be the real game-changer and will make Tesla a household name overnight.�
Sep 25, 2014
rcc I think Elon is going to do what he said all along: price the Model E (er, Model 3) along the same lines as the 3-series (well, now 3/4-series) BMWs.
That's typically been $35-48K although that may have gone up in recent years to $40-55K. By the time we hit 2017, it could very well be low 40's to 60K.
BMW has certainly proven that you can get years and years of growth out of a 3-series, 5-series and a few other models here and there.
(edit to correct Model E/3 typo)�
Sep 25, 2014
Tasdevil Extra motor, door and side cameras. Maybe a few more things...
My point is with tesla ramping up production I don't expect the X to be 30k more than the S. Maybe 10-15k.
And my point is;
If a motor, falcon doors and side camera costs more than 15k
A gen3 car at 35k doesn't sound good.�
Sep 26, 2014
Red Sage Tesla Motors is not a luxury car company. BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Cadillac, AUDI, Acura, Infiniti, Lexus... All of those are marketed as luxury marques. In fact, if you go to their websites, almost every single traditional automobile manufacturer from Chevrolet to Ford, Honda to Toyota, or Hyundai to Kia posts the word 'luxury' all over the place. Stop by the Tesla Motors website and it doesn't appear there at all. Not in their brochures, not in their e-mails, not in their press releases, not on twitter, or YouTube, or Facebook, or Veoh, or Vimeo... Tesla Motors sells premium electric cars that are currently cost a lot to buy, are fun to drive, and don't burn any gas. The Model S and Model X are expensive, performance, economy cars. The Tesla Model ? will be an affordable, performance, economy car series.
No. The reason why Elon Musk opened up the patents held by Tesla Motors is that he realized the traditional automobile manufacturers had no interest whatsoever in pursuing electric cars in a manner that was not limited, gimped, or just plain stupid. He got the patents to begin with because he was afraid larger companies would attempt to steal the market from under them. He now realizes they had no intention of doing that at all. They believed their own negative propaganda, that Tesla was just angling to get themselves bought pit by a larger entity, in order to 'save' the company, and get a payday for its principles. They never once believed that Elon was being honest and sincere in his quest to build affordable, long range electric cars that were compelling.
Opening the patents was not done for the sake of the 'big boys'. It was done in order to foster the efforts of smaller, fledgling EV companies. It was to make it so that they no longer have to reinvent the wheel just to avoid being sued by Tesla Motors. As long as they operate in good faith, with an intention to make fully electric cars with the technology, instead of hybrids, and strive to release vehicles with over 200 miles of range, they have nothing to fear. Tesla Motors finally realized that trying to get the traditional automobile manufacturers to switch to electric drive was like going to a major livery stable company in the late 19th century and trying to get them to invest in the horseless carriage. It is better to set up a separate, parallel electric vehicle industry that usurps the existing ICE automotive industry.
Tesla Motors will never used 'independent franchised dealerships'. For now, while they are still fighting for the right to open up Service Centers, Tesla Stores, and install Superchargers nationwide, they must at least make it seem as if the door is open to the possibility of using the traditional dealership model. In reality, they will never have to do so.
That would be the ticket.
If the current cost of batteries for Tesla Motors is ~$200 per kWh today... Then the batteries from the Gigafactory, yielding a 30% cost improvement from the outset, will be ~$140 per kWh... THREE YEARS FROM NOW. That beats the hell out of the skeptical ANALysts' projection of $167 per kWh in ten years. Even if Tesla's price for batteries is currently as much as ~$238 per kWh, they will beat that 'report' on day one of the Gigafactory by being under the $167 per kWh mark that guy predicted for circa 2025.
Thus, a 60 kWh battery pack in a $34,900 vehicle would represent roughly 24% of its cost. I believe Tesla Motors will do better than that. And as the Gigafactory ramps up production, it will only improve over time, and well ahead of skeptical observations and prognostications. Wouldn't it be nice if the car debuted with a 100 kWh battery pack standard at $34,900 with Supercharging included in a car every bit as well appointed as a Lexus ES?
So why was this article written? Oh, yeah... Click bait.�
Sep 26, 2014
EVNow I can think of all kinds of similar things that would be nice - but won't happen�
Oct 1, 2014
igotzzoom If the Model 3 is $50-80k, count me out. The sweet spot for me would be about $40-45k. I really hope they can get close to their preliminary price targets.�
Oct 1, 2014
ggies07 This company will be a laughing stock to the media and will never be trusted again if they come out with that price.�
Oct 1, 2014
TEG Tesla to Build the Tech News and Analysis
�
Oct 1, 2014
vinnie97 ^I got thrilled for a second and then saw the article date. :|�
Oct 2, 2014
tdelta1000 I would have to disagree with the article of a $50-$80K Model 3.
*Tesla will ditch the pano roof for a more conventional moon roof.
*The battery will be smaller than the S batt pack.
*The steel body is cheaper than that of the "S".
* The battery will be produced by TM.
* Development cost will be lower because TM will have streamline all processes to build car.
* Parts suppliers may lower prices due to volume purchasing.
A higher priced Model 3 will come with extra features requested by a customer.�
Oct 2, 2014
gregincal The M3 averages almost 70K. The Model S P85+ competes with the M5 in price, so I don't see why Tesla wouldn't release a high performance version of the Model 3 to compete with the M3.�
Oct 7, 2014
Red Sage I'm pretty sure that the 'low performance' version of the Tesla Model ? will compete with a BMW M3.�
Nov 13, 2014
tftf What amazes is not the price estimate (Anderman's range is a bit too high in my opinion, the base price is probably achievable at $40-45k) but the 2017 shipment date in his likely scenario.
I don't think Tesla can ship the Model 3 in volumes in 2017.
My current estimate is 2018 (or even later, 2018 is probably quite optimistic) for volume shipments.
I have been saying that for some time, same for the Model X delays that have been recently confirmed.
My current estimates are:
- Model X: Q4 2015 and 2016 for global volume shipments. Q3 2015 will probably be only a few Signature deliveries.
- Model 3: 2018 in an optimistic scenario (and later for global volume shipments, could well slip into 2019-2020).
I would like to hear from others about their estimates for Model 3 volume shipments, i.e. not a few first Signature deliveries, but real volume shipments to customers.�
Nov 13, 2014
MartinAustin Tesla's early cars (by this I mean the S, X and Model 3) compete with all cars - and themselves.
The S was so compelling that I (former owner of a Honda Civic) decided to get one instead of a BMW 328.
It's not just competing with cars that are priced similarly.
Then, once the X comes out, it will be the Model S' worst enemy, as the X will be the only other car that future buyers of the Model S might consider as a viable alternative... it'll really eat into Model S sales. Tesla won't mind
Once the Model 3 comes out, it will eat into sales of the S+X because people who would ordinarily be making a big financial stretch to get the S or X will now be able to get the Model 3.
The only group of cars that will truly suffer will be the conventional oil-burning car segment... since they don't offer a compelling alternative.�
Nov 13, 2014
tftf But one main differentiator (Tesla being perceived as an EV pioneer by mass-market car buyers) is whether Tesla can really release a mass-market EV with 150-200 miles of range ahead of the competition.
That is very much in doubt in my opinion given the latest delays with the Model X etc.
As I outlined before, I don't think the Model 3 will ship in volume before 2018, maybe even later than that (regardless whether the Gigafactory produces first cell test batches by 2016 already).
If so, other traditional car brands (namely Nissan, GM, VW or BMW) may launch similar vehicles at $30-50k and the same range at the same time or even before.
Launching the Model X back in 2013 (or the Model 3 in 2016) would make a difference in public perception (again, mass-market car buyer perception, not among early adopters or "EV fans").
I also think other companies such as Nissan can ramp their future EV vehicles (such as the Leaf 2.0) faster than Tesla after the production start date.
PS: I would like to hear from others about their time estimates when the first Model 3 cars ship to customers in volume production.�
Nov 13, 2014
WarpedOne And they will get batteries from who exactly?�
Nov 13, 2014
tftf In the case of Nissan either from AESC (current JV) or a new joint-venture in existing Nissan plants (likely with LG Chem) or from a supplier (again likely coming from LG Chem). Same for GM and others (most likely LG), BMW is the exception to the rule with Samsung SDI. LG Chem has announced these batteries for 2016-2017 for mass-market priced cars: LG Chem To Supply 200 Mile Batteries In 2016; But To Whom?
Does anyone have a time estimate for Model 3 shipping?�
Nov 13, 2014
WarpedOne Good. Now you go find out their production capacity.�
Nov 13, 2014
tftf We will see when they ship their cars, Nissan for example already has lots of dark capacity in its exisiting three battery plants for the LEAF.
The problem is shipping in the first place (and at what price). Hence the topic of this thread. So I ask my question for a last time for anyone interested:
When do you think will the Model 3 (or the first Model 3 variant, if the Model 3 is a platform for more than one carmodel) ship in volume and at what base price (without any government incentives, the "pure" base price)?
My current estimates are: 2018 at the earliest (likely towards end of 2018 or even later) and $40-45k base price.�
Nov 13, 2014
art 12 th grade education take with a grain of salt. 4q 2017 39,995.00?�
Nov 13, 2014
WarpedOne We can already see there is not enough capacity in whole world for:
to come true.
Not without their own new 'gigafactories'. Whole LGChem together may be capable of producing 20% of tesla's planned production.
All Nissan's battery plants when finnaly up to 100% speed may be capable of producing enough cells for some 30k 200m cars annually.
Tesla is shooting for six figures production of 200+ mile EVs. The only ways someone may surpass them is:
a) tesla fails achieving their stated goals
OR
b) others build their ultrabig factories ultrafast
I'll gladly bet my money on this.�
Nov 13, 2014
Model 3 Just remember one little thing:
Model X is not critical for Tesla's success. Model 3 is.
What the result of one year delay in Model X? Tesla sells more Model S.
What the result of one year delay of Model 3? Tesla may not be able to pay the loans it has taken to build the GF.
So yes, the can take the luxury to delay Model X until Tesla think it's "ready", but they can not allow them self to delay the Model 3 that long. The latest news is that the GF may start to produce batteries in 2016. We may see the first signatures late 2016. Production will start at the latest in Q2 2017. Mass-production latest in Q3 same year. Europe deliveries around Christmas 2017. Looking forward to a nice Christmas present that year�
Nov 13, 2014
JST I think 2018 is quite possible. I do think they'll work hard to get it online as quickly as possible, but getting the Model 3 out is a big lift, and I can easily see it slipping to '18.
The elephant in the room, in my mind, is what happens with Model S 2.0. By 2018, it will be 6 years old and presumably getting close to a refresh/redesign.
Tesla is going to have to get to the point eventually where they can design two (or more) platforms simultaneously. When is that jump going to happen? Will we see that before or after the 3? I suspect after, but that might mean the Model S has to soldier on to 2020 or later.�
Nov 13, 2014
Trev Page Engineering on Model X is done, they're in the process of setting up volume manufacturing and final testing. Engineers are all hands on deck designing Model 3 at the moment. I hope they can meet their 2017 shipment date as long as Elon doesn't nitpick quite as much as he did for Model X. They've stated recently that they need to be a little less perfectionists.�
Nov 13, 2014
aronth5 I would agree with a statement that many or maybe even most engineers are working on the Model 3 but certainly not all. With the constant emphasis by Elon on quality improvement who do you think works on that?�
Nov 13, 2014
ryanjm Actually in my opinion it's CRUCIAL that Elon be very hands-on and nitpicky with Model 3, because the 3 is the key to the entire company's longevity. If it fails, has significant issues, or doesn't push the envelope the way the S has and the way that Elon will fight for, then Tesla fails so close to the completion of Elon's long-stated three-step master plan.
I hope Elon devotes even more of his time to the 3 than he has for either the S or the X.�
Nov 14, 2014
Model 3 Yes, but let's hope he starts this earlier in the process this time�
Nov 14, 2014
JohnQ He needs to be reined in. Having lofty expectations is good but Tesla needs to produce the Model 3 in volume, at a reasonable price with high quality. Cool engineering may need to be sacrificed on the altar of manufacturing repeatability.�
Nov 14, 2014
tftf That's why I think the Model 3 will be even more delayed than the X, because the X can share quite a number of technical parts with the Model S platform, especially the D. A lot of the Model 3 design has to start from scratch as Tesla engineers pointed out themselves.
Call me a permabear, but my realistic to skeptic launch estimate would actually by 2019-2020, my 2018 estimate is maybe quite optimistic given the X delays.
On the other hand, battery pricing will be less of an issue in case Tesla has to delay the car so much with falling battery prices and assuming the Gigafactory is complete by the end of 2017 (as per the Yates construction company timesheet submitted to Nevada officials, the final "phase five" is supposed to be completed by end of December 2017).
I therefore think the big issue is not battery pricing (although I agree the $35k base price will be hard to hit) Anderman pointed out, but rather introduction delays - and the established car competition shipping their longer-range, mass-market EVs before Tesla.�
Nov 14, 2014
ckessel So, it sounds like your belief is that established car companies, who have done very little towards EVs, will be more quick and nimble in designing and producing a car than Tesla? The same companies that haven't yet produced a from scratch EV at all? (I think the LEAF is an exception to the "from scratch"?)
Have I stated that correctly? Isn't that the exact same reasoning that bears have been saying for something like 5 years now?�
Nov 14, 2014
tftf Yes, but that will change in the coming years and the number of shared platforms (see e.g. Kia Soul EV and VW e-Golf and e-Up) will rise and therefore reduce time to market. VW for example has shown how it can integrate EV production into its existing ICE assembly lines with the Golf and the Up.
It will certainly not be all established car companies that will soon produce mass-market, longer range ECs (for example, Toyota, Honda and FCA will not produce EVs with current battery technology unless management changes or legislation forces them do so), but some will arrive with longer-range EVs before Tesla or at the same time in my opinion.
Current estimates:
Before Tesla Model 3:
- Renault / Nissan / Infiniti (certainly Nissan)
- GM
- BYD (probably China only)
Around the same time as Model 3:
- BMW and Mini (depends on progress from Samsung)
- Hyundai and Kia
- Audi/VW (and other VW brands)
- Two additional Asian car brands (can't be named)�
Nov 14, 2014
JohnQ I think you missed my underlying point. It's that the engineering leadership at Tesla will have to be pragmatic to meet the manufacturing requirements for a high volume vehicle. The only question is whether Elon can hold himself back and put the manufacturing process first.
Sure, other car companies can leverage existing platforms. But they're not optimized for an EV powertrain and, as a result, will be less viable. Then you have the battery supply issue. All of these things can be overcome if the companies have the will to do so. So far, the only companies I've seen be serious in this space are BMW and Nissan.�
Nov 14, 2014
tftf Agreed until and including calendar year 2014 (and adding some brands that don't have distribution in the US, such as BYD or Renault). But others wll be moving into the mass-market EV space until 2020.
I would add at least one brand (or rather umbrella brand) in 2015-2016: Volkswagen.
Beyond 2016, there will additional entries as outlined in my prior comment (Ford is kind of a dark horse, I haven't heard much about their mid-term EV plans).
Once these three brands (VW brands, BMW, Nissan and maybe GM post-2016) start moving more volume, others will join and produce more EVs (or PHEVs and cars with range extenders).
In summary, I think the mass-market EV space (at around $30-50k where Model 3 is supposed to be sold) will by quite contested by around 2016-2020 with many offerings and thus competition for Tesla's Model 3.
The main problem for Tesla remains missing the Model 3 introduction date by 2-3 years in my opinion. The car was once supposed to ship in 2016...�
Nov 14, 2014
ckessel So, pretty crappy EVs built on ICE platforms? That's the established manufacturers product that's suppose to succeed? Until an existing manufacturer actually dedicates a platform as EV from the ground up, the hacked EVs on top of ICE platforms are going to be 2nd rate, poorly sold by dealers, and low-volume.
Of any existing manufacturer, Nissan is the only one that's shown commitment. BMW's i3 is progress...but again, they created it with a gas engine in mind.
Adding another 100 miles of EV range to a hacked ICE doesn't mean it'll sell. It'll sell better than today if the costs stay low, but that's not saying much.�
Nov 14, 2014
Model 3 Have you read what their public public stated strategy is? They will not build factories to build batteries. They will not make a deal with a battery manufacture to get a stable source. They will "shop" cheap batteries on the marked. If the only serious mass-marked EV manufacturers by then is Tesla and VW, it may work. But if you right, they will have a big problem getting enough batteries. And if they get them, it will not be cheap, the have to outbid the other EV manufacturers.
What Nissan (Nissan, Renault, Infiniti) is talking about now it to get to 150 miles range...
Yes, GM seams to be working on something, and BMW may be serious but I don't know what they will make when. I don't believe they will get it on the road before the Model 3. Yes, it may be a few "dark horses" in China/Asia - especial BYD. But as far as I can see, that's all. VW will 1. still producing low-range eGolf/eUP, or 2. make a small series long-range eGolf at a high price.
So no, I don't believe it will be a lot of competition in this marked by 2017 - or 2019. But I love to be proven wrong on this
Yes, when the Model X was supposed to ship in 2014. But remember that Tesla now, and more so in 2017, is a more mature and experienced manufacture then it was way back then. We are not talking about it's first "from the ground up" model, and not it's second. I may be a bit optimistic, but tries to be realistic here. And I think 2017 still is a very realistic time-line for the Model 3. Late 2016 may be a bit optimistic�
Nov 14, 2014
ckessel The S concept car debuted in early 2009 and shipped 3.5 years later.
They debuted the concept X in early 2012 and will ship 3.5 years later.
The 3 hasn't yet debuted, but if the previous two announcements are any indication, it'll be over 3 years from then to market. So 2018 seems a likely market date. However, Tesla has more resources at it's disposal than before and more experience with the process, so there's reason to hope it might be 2017. I wouldn't bet on it though.�
Nov 14, 2014
ZsoZso Very good points. I would not expect to see a concept model announcement of the Model 3 before the X is released, and that is currently projected to be Q3 2015, so we are lucky if we get to see the Model 3 concept by the end of 2015. Which in turn implies a most likely release somewhere in 2019, best case scenario 2018, if they can really speed up the process.�
Nov 14, 2014
JST
I dunno. It wouldn't surprise me to see an early concept Model 3 early next year, before Model X deliveries start in earnest. I can even imagine them bringing it to NAIAS, if they want to really rock the house.�
Nov 14, 2014
Model 3 Correct. With an expected release in 2011 - 2.5 years later.
Correct. With an expected release in 2014 - 2.5 years later.
I expect something like that yes
Early 2015 + 2.5 years, and a more experienced manufacturer with more resources?
Exactly�
Nov 14, 2014
ckessel I don't think the two are related. For example, Tesla debuted the X concept early 2012 before the S was released.
I'm expecting the concept sometime during 2015 and my guess is probably earlier than later. Both the S and X were debuted early in the year.�
Nov 15, 2014
tftf VW will certainly plan for battery supply for all their brands over the next 10-15 years, they want to be the leader in EV and PHEV sales mid-term according to their CEO. I don't know why you wrote they had no deal with suppliers, this is not true:
VW already has contracts with Panasonic and Samsung and now (2014) also with LG Chem:
http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2014/08/lg-chem-signs-battery-deal-with.html
See the earlier Samsung SDI deal: Samsung SDI to supply electric vehicle batteries to VW in 2015 | WardsAuto
As for Tesla's timeframes, the Model 3 will need to be redesigned from the ground up (many additional cost constraints compared to Model S and X).
This is not my speculation, the obvious need for re-design and cutting costs to hit the promised $35k base price was confirmed by Tesla executives in Model 3-related interviews:
Tesla promises realistic pricing for new BMW 3-series rival | Autocar
That's why I think we won't see the Model 3 on sale before 2018 in my opinion.�
Nov 15, 2014
Model 3 That is not was I wrote. I wrote that they will not make a deal to get a stable source of batteries.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2662215-how-volkswagen-evaluates-batteries-to-compete-with-tesla
Just my point. Who of this three will build a new factory to be able to deliver battery cells to VW when they need to ramp up? Panasonic? They are busy ramping up for Tesla. LG? They are busy ramping up for GM and Nissan. Samsung? Maybe? If not anyone else ramp up first...
They need to design (not redesign) the Gen-III platform and the Model 3 from the ground up, just as they did with Gen-II and the Model S. Yes I'm very well informed about that they don't plan to use aluminum for all the components of Model 3. If it will be steel instead is still just a guess, but a very likely option. You don't think that they by now have most of the basic platform ready, the layout of the "skateboard", the form/capacity of the battery pack and Model 3 in at least clay? The motors/gears (more or less) is in the D models soon to be delivered.�
Nov 15, 2014
FluxCap Oh good grief, I just found this thread. It's like clockwork -- the stock moves up significantly and the perma-bears come back out to spread FUD by linking to other FUD. Sometimes I wonder if John Petersen is actually someone in this very thread.
Please don't feed the bears / trolls people. They have absolutely no idea how much the Model 3 will cost other than the officially-stated Tesla Motors price of $35k before incentives, no matter how many articles they link to. It's spreading FUD, nothing more.
Couldn't have said it better myself.�
Nov 15, 2014
tftf What about another Model X delay I predicted for quite some time? Also FUD? I guess not, Tesla just confirmed it a few days ago. We will see if Model X will not slip again into Q4 2015 or later (and if Q3 2015 will just be about a few first Signature deliveries).
In case you didn't read all my posts in this thread in detail, my main point was not about Model 3 pricing (I think Anderman's estimates are too high), but rather missed deadlines:
I think Tesla will not be able to ship the Model 3 in volume before 2018 (or even later) given their history of delays.
That can have as big as if not even a bigger impact on car sales and the competitive landscape for Tesla (and TSLA, the stock) in the mass-market EV and PHEV/range-extender segment in my opinion.
In case you believe Tesla has no issues meeting the originally announced Model 3 deadlines (2016-2017*), please post your estimates.
* I'm just using the recently announced dates. The Model 3 car was once even supposed to ship by 2015:
Tesla Says All-Electric 3-Series Competitor Due By 2015�
Nov 15, 2014
joefee Back in the dark ages when I put my deposit on Model S, I was planning for 50K after rebates for a 40 pack. I ended up with a 6 figure Sig Performance! The same thing will happen with the Model 3... starting at 35K but there will be "must have" 80K version!�
Nov 15, 2014
adiggs I expect the same kind of timeline as you for Gen 3 shipments. I do expect the base model 3 to arrive at that $35-40k range. I also expect the first year of shipping cars to almost all be $50k+, and I expect the sustained ASP for Gen 3 to be in the $50k range. Partly because well optioned cars will get production priority, and partly because in the early ramp while production continues to be constrained, Tesla can choose to not make the lower optioned cars available yet (sort of like the early Model S shipments were all 85kwh, and it was only 6-9 months later (as I recall) that the 60kwh car started shipping).�
Nov 15, 2014
ENZA no way to be in 30k range. even if possible, it won't be. lol.�
Nov 16, 2014
robby I have confidence that Tesla will make a base $35k (2014 dollars) car; they've more or less bet the business on it. The harder question is what will be sacrificed for it? Even if COGS for every component drops in price by half, the labor rate has a floor and some things will have to be cut.
My guess is that the sacrifices will be: less volume and hauling capacity due to lower horsepower drivetrain(s) (and consequently no possible third row), smaller screen, shorter prepaid periods for 3G and maps updates, and upsells for niceties like the power liftgate, door handle lighting, etc. Tesla opting for a steel frame is less clear to me than it seems to some others; steel is cheaper but is it so much cheaper that it's more cost effective than using aluminum and being able to have a less powerful battery? It may make sense to have an aluminum frame but use steel for miscellaneous attached parts like the suspension. (Side note: I initially thought Tesla would try to use aluminum for its longevity (which is a big part of a "sustainable" car), but Tesla's Head of Product said they are not trying to change how frequently people buy cars).�
Nov 16, 2014
sjoshuaj Tesla�s Franz von Holzhausen: Mass Market �Model E� scheduled to be shown at Jan. 2015 Detroit Auto Show
Tesla scheduled to be shown at Jan. 2015 Detroit Auto Show, BMW's i3 design is 'strange, Ikea-like' | Electrek
Franz von Holzhausen, "And we are working hard on the �3rd Gen�, the third generation platform".
This statement was made last year.
They are further along than you think. They just haven't shown it to anyone yet.
Tesla's second-quarter earnings call
Elon Musk, "We're not currently showing all our cards."
Elon Musk, "Yeah. I mean another thing, our CapEx and R&D numbers are better than they appear because there are things you don't know about."
Written by:
SETH WEINTRAUB
December 12, 2013 / 11:18 am�
Nov 16, 2014
aronth5 It is all about the ASP not whether they can offer a $35k model. I agree with many who believe the ASP will approach $50k. In early 2011 when Tesla discussed pricing for the Model S Elon frequently mentioned you would be able to buy a Model S for $49,900 after the tax credit. http://www.dailytech.com/Teslas+Model+S+Pricing+Set+at+50k+60k+and+70k+after+Tax+Credit/article21080.htm
The $50k number got a fair amount of press but didn't last long and was a bar boned model. What Tesla should have said from the beginning is that the Model 3 will cost half what the Model S goes far. Much safer then having everyone focus on $35k and then having Tesla critics telling everyone Elon lied about the Model 3 pricing. Unfortunately that will happen.�
Nov 16, 2014
tftf Tesla could certainly show a concept of the Model 3 in clay form, as CAD drawing or as a similar mock-up/mule by January 2015 (or later in 2015, but Detroit would of course be a good opportunity).
That however is very different from shipping thousands of cars per month. For example, the Model X was shown back in 2012 and was supposed to ship back in 2013...and other brands have similar issues (the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV still doesn't ship in NA, it was delayed by two years as well).
The Gigafactory doesn't finish its final construction phase (phase five) before December of 2017. That alone is a strong indicator in my opinion that the Model 3 won't ship in volume before 2018.�
Nov 17, 2014
Model 3 The Gigafactory doesn't finish its final construction until about 2020. But its build in modules, and module 1 will be finished in 2016, and start producing batteries for Tesla. Module 2 will probably be finished in 2017.�
Nov 17, 2014
RobStark The GF does not need to produce 35 GW of batteries per year in order for the Model 3 to ship in thousands per month. Maybe 7 GW to ship 100k units per year. Tesla will be importing enough batteries from Japan to manufacture 150k-200k Model S/X per year.�
Nov 17, 2014
ToddRLockwood The outside experts don't know what they don't know. Tesla may not have shown all their cards yet. The company has thrown out a battery cost reduction estimate of 30 percent, but it could be much more, not only through manufacturing efficiency, but perhaps also through better batteries. If this is indeed true, why would Tesla spill the beans so far in advance of the Model III release? The jury is still out on this one.�
Nov 17, 2014
tftf My December 2017 date refers to the final work done by the external construction company (Yates). Yes, adding additional production lines within the complex (until full capacity is reached, or for other customers, say batteries for energy storage) may take until 2020 or longer.
The five phases involving Yates:
� Phase 1: Sept. 2014-Sept. 2015
� Phase 2: Dec. 2014-Dec. 2015
� Phase 3: April 2015-May 2016
� Phase 4: May 2015-Dec. 2016
� Phase 5: Aug. 2016-Dec. 2017
If you think 2016 or 2017 first-batch batteries will already end up in volume cars, that predicition is quite optimistic in my opinion. Tesla would also need to add tooling for Model 3 in the CA factory in parallel, incredibly tight deadlines.�
Nov 17, 2014
yobigd20 The recent Tesla ban in Michigan is so restrictive Tesla is not allowed to sell directly, operate galleries, or pretty sure not even display cars or advertise etc. I think this effectively bans them from the Detroit auto show.�
Nov 17, 2014
tftf Thanks, I wasn't aware it was that strict. On the other hand, Musk is scheduled as a speaker at the AN World Congress in mid-January in Detroit:
4:55pm
Elon Musk, CEO, Tesla Motors
World Congress -- Automotive News
Maybe a little more nfo about the Model 3 could be revealed there?�
Nov 17, 2014
JST It could be interpreted that way, but that would be a very aggressive interpretation. I don't think Tesla will be prohibited from participating at NAIAS.�
Nov 17, 2014
William13 Tesla will be a no show at NAIAS. Detroit is now the former motor city and has decided to close its eyes to the future.. I doubt Elon will allow an exhibit after the recent underhanded new anti Tesla law.
The $35k has always been the low end starter car. No concerns as Tesla may sell some as loss leaders much as other companies do. The small Model S for $50k was certainly sold at a loss.
The gigafactory is the key to low cost batteries for the next 5-10 years. Then new technologies may prevail.�
Nov 17, 2014
green1 I'd love to see them at the auto show, and I'd love to see them run in to legal trouble for it. Not because I want Tesla to run in to legal trouble, but because that part of the law is so blatantly un-constitutional (can we say freedom of speech?) that they would have no trouble striking it down.
Telling them they can't sell somewhere is bad enough, but telling them they can't even talk about their cars in a certain state is so far beyond ridiculous that they really need to just call the bluff (or if not a bluff, have it smacked down HARD in court)�
Nov 18, 2014
Model 3 Yes, your right. I was a bit hastig here, and mixed up "final construction" and "fully assembled". Sorry late response.
No, I don't expect the first-batch batteries to end up in volume cars, but not very long after. Depending on when in 2016 the production starts, i do expect them to show up in volume cars in 2016, at least very early 2017.
And yes, Tesla has been clear all the way that it will have to be two path in parallel, the GF and tooling for the Model 3 in Fremont. But, as they have stated there will be no Model 3/Gen-III without the GF, and without Model 3/Gen-III they will not be a need for the GF. So they are both depending on each other.�
Nov 19, 2014
Trev Page Just because they haven't shown a concept of Model 3 doesn't mean they havent started on it yet. Perhaps Tesla wants to wait to show a mostly finished vehicle this time around. Maybe they've learned that showing your cards too early is detriment to them?�
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