Jan 11, 2016
Troy France number was published HERE today. 708 units in 2015. That means Dec sales were 708-611= 97 units. In terms of Model S sales, France finished 2015 in 9.th place in Europe. Not bad. The article has good data about general EV market in France.�
Jan 12, 2016
vgrinshpun Switzerland December sales - 193, total for 2015 - 1556 Model S.
Let's see how Model S did in 2015 vs. more opulent members of Oberklasse on the neutral territory:
Tesla Model S 1556
MB S/CLS 1276
BMW 6 Series 286
Audi A7 242
BMW 7 Series 192
Porsche Panamera 168
Bentley Continental 119
Maserati Quatroporte 107
Audi A8 100
Cadillac CTS 37
Jaguar XJ 20
Rolls-Royce Wraith 20
Rolls-Royce Ghost 6
Rolls-Royce Wraith 5
VW Phaeton 5
Rolls Royce Phantom 5 �
Jan 12, 2016
Spidy I was always confused by this, but apparently Switzerland has something called "general importeure", which kinda makes the prices of non direct sales cars pretty expensive. I think compared to Germany a S-Class is like 35000 Euro more expensive than a Model S, at least on the official website. Will be interesting to see if there is any reaction of the German manufacturers after this.�
Jan 13, 2016
Alfred There are some important differences in relation to Germany or he US:
1) A much smaller proportion of cars are company cars. Company cars can often be chosen by the individual and there is no home brand bias.
2) Motorway speeds are limited to 120 Km/h and distances covered in daily use are on average very short, particularly in relation to the US.
3) Tesla (Switzerland) was well managed by dedicated professionals right from the beginning. Also service has always been and still is impressive. One service center e.g. started immediately to work in 2 shifts as the workload rose. I for one was never "postponed". Tesla was also able to recruit and train relatively quickly good mechanics out of their "mechatronic" apprenticeships (the cream of the traditional "auto mechanic"). Switzerland's good professional training system was a clear advantage to this aspect of a startup operation.
4) People use the cars to get from A to B and do not live in them. The number of coffee cupholders is not decisive.
In general cars sold tend to be more generously fitted. In particular 4WD is, for obvious reasons, very popular. Any comparison of prices has to make sure like is compared with like.�
Jan 13, 2016
Adm I can't wait to see what the introduction of Model X will do to the sales of the Cayenne and likes. :scared:�
Jan 13, 2016
RobStark Motorway speeds in the US are limited to 106 Km/h to 136 Km/h the fastest being Texas.
Distances covered are not materially different in Europe vs the US. This is a common misconception.
The vast majority of American car owners drives less than 40 miles per day.
The supercommuters that drive over 100 miles per day are about 8% of the total and distort averages.
The difference is Americans use public transportation less and drive more days per year.
And yes, we live in our cars. Apparently, we eat more drink more put on make-up more shave more in our cars than Europeans.�
Jan 13, 2016
vgrinshpun Yes, indeed, there is no home brand bias, and this is exactly what I meant by calling Switzerland a neutral territory.
There is no escape, IMO, from the overall conclusion that Model S performance against other members of Oberklasse is an ominous sign for an ICE automobile. Notwithstanding the very familiar and often repeated disadvantage of Model S against Oberklasse rivals as far as opulence quotient is concerned, Model S sales are exceptional. Do not forget that Tesla expanded their market share from zero to the level of the leaders in just three years. The fact that this was achieved not necessarily by stealing sales from Oberklasse rivals, but in large measure by bringing new owners to this high price category, must be very painful to those occupying certain boardrooms in European country well known for their exceptional auto industry.
The problem is that the automotive leaders must *electrify* their offerings to compete, but it is not easy to do when so much of the resources are tied in ICE, and require additional resources to maintain ROI. There is natural drive to avoid stranded resources, which leads to dangerous procrastination for going "all in" on EV development.
"It is not a fair fight"�
Jan 13, 2016
mostapasta There seems to be 43 Model S sales in Ukraine for 2015:
EV Sales: Ukraine December 2015 (Draft)
I tried to find his source, but could only come up with this (maybe someone else will have better luck):
Стати�тика | Укр�втопром�
Jan 13, 2016
dirkhh I'm actually surprised how little meaningful reaction we have seen from BMW, Mercedes, and VW (i.e., Audi and Porsche).
By now they must be painfully aware of the impact Tesla is having outside of the German market. And even there it is starting to get noticed.
Yet everything I see from them sounds more like CYA, compliance cars and certainly not am attempt to truly compete. Heck, GM appears to be fielding a more credible EV than they are...�
Jan 13, 2016
Alfred Zetsche from Mercedes was very open and stated something like: "The lesson Tesla with the Model S taught us". Tesla is not their only concern in this context. I read somewhere that Apple is perceived to be just as important as a potential competitor. (Sorry, I did not keep those links.)
As traditionally the auto-industry keeps their new developments under wraps, there is a lot we do not hear. Large corporations are also often intentionally slow in adopting new technology. They consider that their capital and other assets permit a later, rapid and more cost effective entry. They are also not likely to speak about their boardroom exchanges.
- - - Updated - - -
To Rob:
"Distances covered are not materially different in Europe vs the US. This is a common misconception."
The figures I found are about 14000 Km/y for Germany, marginally less for Switzerland and about 18000 Km (11262 m) for the US. I agree with the problem of distribution of those miles. There are about 5-15% that drive a disproportionate number of Km per year, but this phenomenon does not only hold for the US. I found so far no local source of usable numbers for Switzerland. Geographic characteristics would perhaps support that the overall difference is nevertheless indicative also for the lesser mileage citizens.�
Jan 13, 2016
SebastianR I couldn't agree more. And it is frustrating as hell to see them explain their cognitive dissonances away "the US is buying American made cars only", "the Norwegians is no wonder with their subsidies", "the Swiss just don't like Germany any longer" etc. etc. They like to point to China and Germany and pretend all is perfect. The irony of all this is, that currently the German policy framework on the introduction of EVs can't move forward as any move to support EVs without a credible German EV would be seen as "unpatriotic" while German car makers don't offer credible EVs and point to the lack of incentives. It is an outrageously silly situation...
PS: on a different note - the numbers of DK for December stand as they were reported. So I guess that's that. And for January 2016 until today only 6 new cars reported which is in line with the expectations (I'm actually a bit amazed there are these 6 at all).�
Jan 15, 2016
Fast Laner Encouraging news from the german government on subsidying the purchase of ev-cars :
Zeitung: Gabriel plant 5000 Euro Prämie für Kauf von Elektroauto�
Jan 16, 2016
hobbes
Sounds good. But seems like the Christian Democrats (which constitute the German government together with Gabriel�s Social Democrats), or at least their minister of finance, does not support this. Wonder what chancellor Merkel�s opinion is on this.�
Jan 16, 2016
dirkhh They'll compromise. 5000� for cars made by EU manufacturers that are partial zero emission.
I'll bet you a dollar.
With the utter lack of commitment from the German car industry to EVs there's no way the German government will give the foreign competition a boost.�
Jan 16, 2016
hobbes Actually, German car industry officials have asked for EV incentives (which actually has the sound of "give us money, then we�ll make EVs"), so they couldn�t really complain. I think you do have a point, but I don�t believe it will come this far. More likely nothing will happen at all.�
Jan 16, 2016
dirkhh I will admit that I haven't followed this too closely. I read this on Heise.de which points out that while the social democrat Gabriel is in favor of an EV-only incentive, the right wing finance minister is against it. And in the past the CDU/CSU and the car industry have very much been "hand in glove" when it comes to getting the regulations the car makers wanted... And looking at the track record so far with 12363 EVs sold in Germany in 2015 (out of 3.2M new cars - so fewer than 0.4%) and absolutely anemic offerings by the local car makers... I don't think there's an appetite there.�
Jan 16, 2016
smac I'll take that bet
I don't think they will restrict it to EU manufacturers
On a more serious note, I've been involved with our local city authority in their ULEV bids, there's lots of EU money coming in and no real differentiation between BEV and PHEV(/EREV). So cynically I think you are right the powerful (primarily German) EU auto industry isn't going to lay down arms just yet with the lobbying.
It has been a very interesting insight however talking to the planners about some of the issues. Some are misguided, with none of the teams driving BEV's other than fleet council Leafs, but some are genuine concerns (including but not limited to: tax revenue worries, grid capacity, scalability, social equality, housing constraints, anti competition issues ). So being generous our lawmakers could be looking at it in a different way than we might. Get 1000 ULEV cars on the road or 100 BEVs, and ultimately just have less vehicles altogether pushing people into mass transit.
I get the distinct impression the focus in EU will be ULEV not ZEV for the next 5 years. I also think a lot of the credits will be EU wide, with the member states varying around a theme how they implement distribution of those credits.
Are the auto makers leading the agenda or just putting maximum resource into the most likely next round of government policy to sell the most vehicles.�
Jan 16, 2016
Lessmog What's a ULEV?�
Jan 16, 2016
SebastianR The biggest issues I have with the German plan are: 1) it is an idea only - nothing is confirmed and the minister for finance doesn't want it, so it won't come. 2) Even if it comes it will be far into the future - so anybody remotely considering buying an EV right now risks of "losing" 5000 Euro if they buy now. -> now that's a perfect way to strangle an already lousy EV market and give Diesel a good push.
If they were serious they would apply it retroactively to 1-Jan-2016 (or something like that) - but my suspicion is that they want to have it only in the future at a time when maybe some German car makers are in a position to offer EVs. If Tesla and the French don't sell any EVs in Germany in the meantime, they won't care...�
Jan 16, 2016
dirkhh
Ultra Low Emission Vehicle�
Jan 16, 2016
smac As Dirkh says Ultra Low Emission Vehicle.
In EU this means any vehicle producing < 75g CO2 per km under the NEDC tests. The only practical way to achieve this is with a BEV or PHEV (I'm excluding H2 cars as we don't have any available yet).
It is a bit of a joke with the likes of the Outlander and i8 on the list, which in many cases never going near an electrical point, such are the tax advantages.
This is the UK GoUltraLow website produced with some government backing:
Car Menu - Go Ultra Low
Notice any obvious omissions? (Hint strange as Elon was supposedly the UK's EV Tsar!)�
Jan 16, 2016
Lessmog Ah. Thanks for the info.�
Jan 19, 2016
Gerasimental
The world is not a huge anti-Tesla conspiracy. Manufacturers have to join the programme and Tesla hasn't, which is why they are not represented on the site.
I like the Go Ultra Low initiative, and prefer to have people buying Outlander PHEVs over BMW x3s.
Absurd that they claim all these cars have the same real world as NEDC mileage though.�
Jan 24, 2016
hobbes Just found news on minister Gabriel�s initiative for a 5000 EUR incentive in Germany: Looks like a meeting to discuss this was cancelled, seems like he is alone with that idea while other ministers think the car industry makes enough money to offer competitive prices for EVs themselves:
Google Translate�
Jan 30, 2016
hobbes We are moving the wiki for Europe to another place with a title that doesn�t contain a year, so we can use it indefinitely:
Tesla Europe Registration Stats - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
And, btw, first MX in Europe - license plate is for Ingolstadt where Audi is...
Random Model X sightings - Page 141�
Jan 30, 2016
hobbes In this video from France at 13:25 Elon says on superchargers
Now that�s news!�
Jan 30, 2016
Quant Yeah...and on the same video Elon says the first pictures we will see of the Model 3 will be towards the end of March.
So, Model 3 at Geneva show in 2016 simply isn't happening ! And, I'm glad !�
Jan 30, 2016
Benz At 14:20 in the video:
Elon Musk: "But to do large scale manufacturing, like on the order of a million units a year type of factory ...."
That's going to be a very large factory (one in China and one in Europe)!!!�
Jan 31, 2016
Quant So, I just finished watching this video for a second time on YouTube.
1. Boy, was that one super chaotic French event!!!!!
Everything from the local Tesla people who organized the event, to the microphones that were used, to the super talkative audience , the tone of the people ( yeah, even for France it was unusually poor ).....I mean everything.....it seemed very poorly done.
2. One additional important takeaway for me was that Elon maybe sees a path for a Model S range going maybe upto ONLY 500-550 km ( 312-343 miles, so midpoint about 325 miles) AS A MAX, in the near future ( say 2-3 years or by 2018/2919).
That's not as big a leap as I was hoping for by 2019, but hearing Elon explain the trade-offs and charging efficiency as one tries to charge faster, I can understand the technological challenges and weight issue constraints there.
3. Also, Elon does not see Superchargers being able to charge any faster than 15 minutes, anytime in the near future horizon. Again, if that's by 2019, that's only a little better, not a huge improvement.
4. As a result of 2 and 3 above, I would think that Tesla will really need to expand the supercharger network even faster, to fill in current holes, increase the supercharger network density in high population areas/highly traversed areas, and also increase the number of supercharger outlets per location, so as to avoid holiday and seasonal travel rush queues, in the US and in Europe.
With the rollout and production of Model 3 in volume, in 2018 and 2019, I expect thiswill be done and given high priority because of the above.
5. So, now I hope and expect that Tesla will get faster to scaling up the Gigafactory with scale economies and battery chemistry/electronics to achieve the $100 kwh costs, that JB Straubel referred to earlier this year. He actually said that Teslawould be very disappointed if they could not get to at least $100 kWh cost by the end of 2020.
6. Re Model 3 launch event in March, it is interesting, but not unsurprising, that Elon said that not all of the features of the Model 3 will be announced in March, as they will hold off on announcing seme features closer to actual production in late 2017. That's kinda similar to Model X, with some of the things like BioHazard button etc. Also, given competition is ramping up in the lower price band, I think Tesla will be careful not to tip their hand fully, too soon.�
Jan 31, 2016
RobStark In the vid Musk says we will be seeing pictures of the Model 3.
But that we will not see all of Model 3 until much closer to production.
I was expecting a full prototype.�
Jan 31, 2016
Quant I think Musk and team will give enough info, pictures and video to demonstrate that the Model 3 is better on looks, styling , performance, range etc at a starting price sufficient to make it compelling enough vs. any othet EV , so that the end result is a swarm of reservations that builds and builds by late 2017, to blow out capacity for all of 2018 and 2019. Probably $2,000 deposit. And, a killer leasing deal. I wouldn't worry about that!
�
Jan 31, 2016
Gerardf Elon did not say we will ONLY see pictures.
Question in the video (@ 12.25) was : "When will we see pictures of the Model 3 ?" ... and the answer was "The first pictures of Model 3.. That will be end of March".
Elon then added: "we are not going to show everything of model 3 until we are much closer to production".
Next to that, the Q3-ER stated:
As of September 30, 2015, the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:
- Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype
- Aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles; and
- Successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype
They must have been pretty close to these milestones late September. (the 100k aggregate production was actually reached in December).
I do expect we will see at least an Alpha prototype at the unveil.�
Jan 31, 2016
Benz You heard JB Straubel say that in a recent video?
Could you please post a linkt to that video here in this thread?
Thanks�
Jan 31, 2016
Quant Just go to Youtube and search for JB Starubel and listen to his presentation at Univ of Nevada 10/11/15. There's only 1. It's a long presentation and I'm not gonna find exactly at what time in the video he says it. I've viewed it twice. The $100 per kWh by 2020 ( he says end of the decade ) is in that. Actually, that Tesla would be very disappointed if they did not at least achieve that by 2020.
I also suggest reading up on JB Straubel, his background and experience with batteries. He is actually the guy in charge of batteries and Gigafactory at Tesla and the one who has been working with the utilities on the software for optimization of the battery packs for utility scale deployments. JB Is a serious electric battery expert/ innovator.�
Jan 31, 2016
SebastianR Wow, Denmark numbers are out: The Model S is doing actually quite well. This is the breakdown of sales in January:
This means that - despite the discontinuation of the sales incentive at the end of December the Model S is still the 3rd best selling car in the E-Segment of Denmark. I must admit I'm baffled and amazed.
MERCEDES-BENZ E-KLASSE 66 AUDI A6 58 TESLA MODEL S 31 VOLVO V70 26 BMW 5'ER 22 VOLVO S80 4 AUDI A7 2
Source: De Danske Bilimport�rer - Presse - Pressemeddelelser vedr. bilsalget
Edit: Thinking about this a bit more (well, a minute or so), I'm not sure how much we can read into these numbers - they seem overall quite depressed from December. We will see what happens going forward.�
Feb 1, 2016
Benz You mentioned: "that JB Straubel referred to earlier this year".
And I thought you meant a video of JB Straubel of January 2016.
Thanks anyway�
Feb 1, 2016
Haddock Still seeing deliveries at the 2015 prices in Denmark
The numbers are very depressed relative to December. This is to be expected, since the tax was raised. However if you ordered your car before the new law was passed in October 2015, the manufacturer has until July 2016 to deliver at the old price. So some of the January Teslas are surely at the old price.
Also, the EU said the original law was unfairly targeting Tesla, and so the actual tax rise is not as high as expected. This news arrived very late though, so it won't have affected December and January sales much.�
Feb 1, 2016
Troy Hi everybody. We have recently moved to a new wiki HERE. You can update your bookmarks.
Hobbes and I made a few changes to prepare for Model X deliveries.
1. In the input form there is now a box to enter Model X numbers too. The link to the input form is in the wiki.
2. In the wiki there will be separate tables and graphs for Model S, Model X and both.
3. The addition of MX increases the workload for data collection for volunteers who submit the data and editors who check and approve the numbers. To simplify things, we have stopped collecting monthly data for low volume countries. These are the countries shown in the graph below starting with Luxembourg. Their combined total is 0.7% of registrations in Europe. We will still collect data for these countries, but it will be yearly data instead monthly.
4. In the wiki most of the graphs are now embedded as a Google spreadsheet that has tabbed browsing. The image below shows how you can switch between those tabs. Without this solution we would simply have too many Model S and X graphs to show on the same page. One advantage is, this enables mouse hover feedback which is useful when viewing map graphs.
MX data will be added once deliveries start in following months. January data for Model S has already started coming in. We are ready for a great year.
Cheers
Troy
�
Feb 2, 2016
hobbes The plans for a German EV incentive seem not to be dead after all: Chancellor Merkel is meeting car industry officials to discuss this matter this week:
Google Translate
Seems like the finance minister does not want to pay and Merkel is trying to find a compromise where the car industry takes over a part of the cost.�
Feb 3, 2016
schonelucht A few more numbers are available for January : (numbers between parentheses are Jan' 15/Oct '15)
the Netherlands : 84 (106/145)
Belgium : 47 (45/55)
France : 37 (26/56)
Germany : 39 : (57/121)
Generally as expected very few deliveries due to Tesla running down the pipeline at the end of last year to meet guidance. Unless a surprise is still in store for the UK or Switzerland, Tesla will have delivered between 400 and 500 cars in Europe during January.�
Feb 3, 2016
GSP If I remember correctly, the Danish government decided at the last minute to gradually raise the tax on Teslas, just like for the lower cost EVs. There may have been some EU arm-twisting involved. :wink:
GSP�
Feb 3, 2016
SebastianR What happened is that the portion of the law that would only affect Teslas is now null and void (the EU said this is unfair so the Danes decided to not implement it). Teslas now become gradually more expensive in line with other EVs in DK. Details in this post.�
Feb 3, 2016
GSP Thanks for the link to your earlier post. It is very well written and helpful.
GSP
PS. I did remember correctly!�
Feb 4, 2016
hobbes Update on German EV incentive: BMW and Audi have reportedly agreed to pay part of it. Chancellor Merkel has issued an ultimatum to the government departments involved, urging them to come up with an agreement by tomorrow, so it seems like she means business - there should be more news soon!
Google Translate�
Feb 4, 2016
SebastianR
Thanks hobbes - now I'm a bit confused: how would this work? Only Audi & BMW contribute? And then it applies to all cars? Or only their own? Would all car makers need to contribute? What prevents them from increasing prices for the electric cars by the amount they are asked to contribute? Guess there will be more details in tomorrow's paper but this is not clear to me.�
Feb 5, 2016
hobbes Same confusion here... Hoping for more info to clear things up soon.�
Feb 6, 2016
Atlantis Some interesting things are happening on the east side of Europe. For example, in spite of all the geopolitical inside Ukraine a very honest number of Tesla cars have been sold there in 2015 (42 as per:http://ev-sales.blogspot.pt/search/label/Ukraine)
- - - Updated - - -
In the same boat seems to be Russia with some 30 Tesla cars registered there between January and July 2015 (http://ev-sales.blogspot.pt/search/label/Russia)�
Feb 9, 2016
hobbes January 2016 data collection is complete: Tesla Europe Registration Stats - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
Switzerland�s registration number added today tops the list at 138. Total for Europe is 676 (with UK being a lowball estimate), which compares to 488 in January last year.
Troy prepared a nice plot comparing current data vs. a year ago:
https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ACj80Y0gQcnkFZNIoVFfu37QrUcjSpMaKJhS7vvEl50/pubhtml?gid%3D168067794%26single%3Dtrue%26chrome%3Dfalse&sa=D&ust=1455054021180000&usg=AFQjCNGs5RE0wWPsqam9GgTVYEjX5OvrXw�
Feb 17, 2016
Gerardf Selecting a Model-3 as a company car will be a no-brainer in The Netherlands.
Being offered a company car (that can also be used for private use) as a part of your job offer does not exactly mean you have a free car or even a great deal in The Netherlands, as you will have to pay significant tax from your (after tax) NETT income.
Already relatively many company car & lease car drivers have a Model-S, however base costs and monthly lease price limits what employees are offered an 80k - 100k company car. Model-3 will not only open the floodgates, but be a very big pain for VW, Audi, BMW etc. Specially in the Netherlands with the tax advantages as planned for 2018 it will become very hard for them to sell in the company car segment.
Putting the tax numbers together makes it clear that we will probably see a very significant number of reservations by both companies and fleet lease companies in the Netherlands. They will not want to be late to grab the market by offering Model-3 early.
2018 Typical scenarios for tax comparison based on a company car of Euro 40.000 Ex VAT. (48.400,-- incl VAT).
This is the tax the employee will have to pay for using his company car in private.
Option 1) Gas / Diesel car, taxed at 22% (as of 2017, currently 25%)
This will add Euro 10.648,-- to your taxable income.
Typically this results in Euro 5.244,-- nett tax per year (Euro 437 per month nett).
Option 2) Best PEV (1 - 50 g/km CO2) taxed at - 19% in 2018 (as of 2019 this is 22%)
This will add Euro 9.169,-- to your taxable income. (2019 : Euro 10.648,--)
Typically this results in Euro 4.524,-- nett tax per year in 2018 (Euro nett 377 per month).
In 2019 and later, typically this results in Euro 5.244,-- nett tax per year (Euro 437 per month nett)
Option 3) BEV taxed at 4%
This will add Euro 1.936,-- to your taxable income
Typically this results in Euro 948,-- nett tax per year (Euro nett 79 per month nett).
Imagine your employer offers you a company car, you can choose from several cars in the same class. The private nett costs for you will be Euro 437 for a 'traditional' car or as an alternative Euro 79,-- per month for a Model-3. Absolutely no-brainer for anybody offered a company car to my opinion. I feel it will not even be worth giving options other than a BEV any consideration. Model-3 with SuperCharging is the perfect fit.
Next to that there are also savings for the employer / lease company (lower road tax, lower maintenance cost, lower gas/energy costs), so the ownership costs / monthly lease price will be lower for your employer as well.
In early 2013, before there was ANY Tesla MS imported in Euro, a Dutch lease company already ordered 150 MS in 2013 to take advantage of the (then) 0% private tax for their customers on a BEV. IIRC they added another 100 MS to that fleet order before the end of 2013.
Market size :
The total number of cars sold to companies / non-private in the Netherlands in 2015 was 314.000 (Private segment was 135.000)
(Source RAI - page 12 - 13: https://www.raivereniging.nl/ecm/?id=workspace://SpacesStore/c2bc95ca-5410-45c3-a082-0af4f85d0d03;1.0 )
Another relevant number could be the total lease market. In Dec 2014 there were a total of 579.000 cars leased in use by companies in The Netherlands. (This number does not include vans and other transport vehicles). Typically Lease cars are replaced after 3 years.
I would not be surprised to see early Model-3 reservations for Fleet Lease companies in the Netherlands for at least 10.000 Model-3. Based on the numbers above I do not dare to estimate what the high-end number could be.�
Feb 17, 2016
AustinPowers Interesting thing to note: the 39 according to the KBA (federal registration agency) consists of
38 Model S
1 Other
As the "Other" can't be a Roadster it must be the white Model X with the Ingolstadt registration licence plates that has been spotted (and discussed) recently.�
Feb 17, 2016
Spidy I don't understand how you have that much money. With almost 2000 Model S sold last year and people maybe otherwise buying a car that's 600� more per month that's around 15,000,000� in lost revenue per year. And that's just Teslas.
Or were the taxes always that low and they just increased the ICE ones?�
Feb 17, 2016
Hyronimous I agree with this completely. As a consultant I can get a company car in the model 3 price range. The tax advantage to choose electrical is a major advantage. I would expect lease companies in Holland to notice this and immediately reserve a large number of cars.�
Feb 17, 2016
Gerardf The 25% level mentioned (to be added to your taxable income) is the current 'normal'. For PEVs and BEVs the percentage is lower.
Some of my employees do not want a company car because of this high tax, they rather have a higher salary and no company car. So we rent a car on those occasions the need to travel to a customer.
Other prefer a lower priced car. This can't be good for the economy either.
So it is not realistic to count every Euro tax saved by choosing an EV as lost tax. As a country we also save on oil imports, lower health expenses, reduced noise etc.
The proposed plan is that these percentages will change now according to this table :
Thus selecting a PEV will no longer help, it will have to be a zero emission car for the low tax level on the company car.
(*) Note: Plan is also for 2019 to differentiate on cars above 50K Euro. The part of the catalog price above 50k will then be taxed 22%. So it would be nice to order a 48k (Incl VAT) Tesla, and buy certain options later (SuC activation, Autopilot...).
For some reason FCEV would, according tot eh current plans, not be taxed for the part of the catalog price above 50k.
Some have even suggested starting 2019 Tesla should offer a Base Model-S with 10 kWh battery at 49.995,--, to be upgraded to 90 kWh later.. Creative thought indeed�
Feb 17, 2016
schonelucht Absolutely. One thing that I am wondering is the number of electric cars the government is expecting in 2018/2019 with their current plans. Offering the 4% rate could quickly become very costly for the government, not to mention the lost revenue from excise taxes on fuel.�
Feb 17, 2016
Oil4AsphaultOnly What about the opel ampera-e? Wouldn't that benefit from the same rationale? I'm not saying that the model 3 will have competition, since both the opel and tesla will be production constrained, only that the fleet lease companies will start leasing long-range BEV's in 2017, not 2018.�
Feb 17, 2016
Gerardf In 2017. Yes, of course that will have a lot of interest. I would be interested to learn when GM / Opel will be ready to export to Europe. Probably GM will prefer to deliver their limited supply of Bolt's in CA for ZEV credits, instead of shipping to NL.
There will be place for both in the market for sure, but at the same price level, who would go for the Bolt / Ampera ? Unless you do not want to wait.
The SuperCharger option would be the decisive differentiating factor.
As far as I am aware of the spec's of the Bolt, it seems there is a maximum of 50 kW for FDC charging. 30 minutes for 90 miles / 144 km.
IMHO, Not good enough to use the car for European vacation / road trips or even Benelux customer visits.
The GM / Opel will possibly sell any Bolt they might make available in NL, as long as the Model-3 is not available. After Model-3 becomes available few will choose the Bolt / Ampera.�
Feb 17, 2016
Spidy Is it uncommon for families to have two cars in the Netherlands? Those small EVs seem like great commuter cars.�
Feb 17, 2016
Gerardf Based on the numbers in my earlier post I did one more calculation to show just how big numbers are, and how hard it will be for Tesla to ship enough Model-3's to The Netherlands (and how big the pain will be for BMW, Audi, VW, Ford, Toyota etc, etc in the Netherlands). (See EU Market Situation and Outlook - Page 191 )
Based on a typical Euro 40.000 + VAT company car, a business owner or an employee choosing a Model-3 over a gas car will save a significant amount of Tax over the typical Lease / ownership period. This tax advantage is guaranteed for at least 5 years after purchase of the car.
Saving over 3 years (typical lease time) :
36 month x Euro (437 -/- 79) = Euro 12.888,--
Saving over 5 full years (guaranteed tax advantage period):
60 month x Euro (437 -/- 79) = Euro 21.488,--
So, just by choosing a BEV like the over a comparable class 'normal' car, saves you total of almost 13k or even more than 21k over the time you use the car. While driving a similar class car.. That is the savings in nett income tax! All "suffering" required is driving Model-3 instead of your typical BMW-3, Audi, VW, Ford or Toyota company car.. That buys many nice vacations & dinners for the effort and 'suffering'.�
Feb 17, 2016
electracity That's a good insight. I wonder how many Bolts sales in California is optimal?
But I expect that GM will supply strong Bolt demand anywhere.�
Feb 17, 2016
Gerardf That depends of course on how many battery packs LG can, and will be willing to, deliver to GM.
Note that LG will not be so keen on building out capacity when they feel the party might be over once the Model-3 production is humming.
(Not to mention how much loss GM is willing to take on the project, if we have to believe Mr. Lutz GM will be taking a loss on every Bolt, so why ship money loosing cars to Europe instead of trading them for ZEV's in CA).�
Feb 17, 2016
mrdoubleb And that's before savings on maintenance and gas...�
Feb 17, 2016
HansWurst Very interesting analysis, Geradf. Thank you very much.
One question: Do employees in the Netherlands have to pay for the fuel they consume or do they usually receive a company fuel card? The reason I am asking of course is the possible additional fuel savings.�
Feb 17, 2016
Gerardf Good question.
The employee normally has to pay nothing. Typically company car owners get a tank card. The tax I describe is to tax the private advantage that an employee has for using the car in private, it is considered income, thus the percentage added to the taxable income. In case one can proof the car is not used for private the tax is waived. However such is not easy to proof.
However, the lower costs for gas / energy should result in lower monthly lease fees for the employer... Or more options that can be bought within the lease-car budget.�
Feb 19, 2016
maoing Q1 guidance 16000 is only 1K less than Q4 delivery 17000. If compare January to October EU delivery, it's 676 vs. 1047. Will be interesting to see how well Feb delivery goes?
�
Feb 20, 2016
schonelucht Don't forget up to 2000 Model X deliveries, so Model S deliveries can be 3000 lower to hit the number. Europe being S only will not have to push as hard as last quarter.�
Feb 20, 2016
smac I am hugely skeptical on a like for like basis the cars will be even close price wise.
The Bolt will likely come with a decent radio, sunroof, comfortable seats, leather, parking sensors, heated steering wheel, fog lights, roof bars, etc. etc. out of the box even in middling trim variants.
Compared to the Tesla which, based on the current design studio model of maximising gross margin through options (some of which really should be standard, and others clearly half done to drive upgrades), it is highly likely to be significantly more expensive than the headline numbers in a specification you would actually want to own.
On this basis, and given the same pot of money, the choice will be between the badge kudos and supercharger infrastructure of the Tesla, or the creature comforts of the Bolt. I think there will be a market for both. I certainly would consider the Bolt, as I don't need/use supercharging.�
Feb 24, 2016
hobbes Elon says Tesla coming to Ireland later this year:
�
Feb 28, 2016
hobbes MrBacardi from elbilforum.no is has not been updating the thread with weekly delivery numbers for the last two weeks. Do any TMC people from Norway know what�s going on?
Last update is of Feb 13: (Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!�
Feb 29, 2016
Model 3 I don't know why, but lately he has dropped to update that thread each week, and only update Elbilsalget m�ned for m�ned (BEV sale month for month), where he puts the delivery numbers on all BEV's - including Tesla. His latest is from February 20 - last Saturday. I do expect him to update this thread today - or maybe he is waiting for the end of month - where he probably will update both threads. Mind you, this numbers includes used car imports and other sources of error.
Tesla deliveries in Norway in February - as of February 20. - is 27.�
Mar 1, 2016
hobbes Looks like Germany ministers have finally agreed on incentives for EV, as Der Spiegel reports (saw this on the short term thread, and followed to the original source of the articles quoted there):
Google Translate
This is not official yet, there will be another meeting with manufacturers in mid-April, but plans of the government are:
- 5000 EUR for private buyers
- 3000 EUR for commercial buyers
- Starting July 2016
- Dropping 500 EUR every year
- 40% coming from car manufacturers
Also part of the same program (total of 1.3 billion EUR):
- 15,000 new charing points
- funding for battery research
- 20% or more of German federal car purchases to be EVs
Looks like this includes plug-in hybrids�
Mar 1, 2016
Auzie Thanks for the link hobbes.
Here is Clean Technica article on the same subject: Germany considering e5000 electric car subsidy, with automakers contributing 40%
I missed a reference to hybrids in both Clean Technica article and in your link. It seems to me that the incentive is only for electric cars.
This incentive will drive sales of electric cars in Germany.
Big opportunity in the European Union is if similar regulation is introduced at the EU level, rather than at the individual country level.�
Mar 2, 2016
Benz Tesla Model S registrations in The Netherlands in February 2016: 75�
Mar 2, 2016
schonelucht European Model S market is maturing. There is nice growth across all countries and no need anymore to rely on blockbuster sales in one country.�
Mar 2, 2016
hobbes Plugin Hybrids are included, see end of the article:
Also see this article which states the eligiblity of PHEVs explicitely:
Google Translate�
Mar 2, 2016
Auzie Thanks for clarification hobbes.
My read of the statement
is that it refers to electric vehicles.
I would not use a term electric vehicle for hybrids. However, the photos below the statement seem to confirm your interpretation, that hybrids are included.�
Mar 2, 2016
Model 3 And then look at that photo gallery they are referring to with the gallery title "Purchase premium for plug-in hybrids: Aid for the 130,000-euro "�
Mar 3, 2016
hobbes Doesn�t make sense to me either to include PHEVs - but I guess the German car makers without competitive pure EVs have some power here, especially since they pay for 40% of the incentives. But looks like THE German car market research guy thinks that PHEVs are a dead end, see this thread:
Prof. Ferdinand Dudenh�ffer admits that Tesla is the benchmarks for all EV's�
Mar 8, 2016
AustinPowers I am not able to get the detailed file yet, but the KBA summary article explicitely mentions 91 newly registered Teslas (presumably all Model S this time) in February, a plus of 250 percent versus February 2015.
Original article (in German) here:
http://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2016/Fahrzeugzulassungen/pm07_2016_n_02_16_pm_komplett.html?nn=716864�
Mar 8, 2016
hobbes Thanks! But someone was quicker and had already posted it to the wiki: Tesla Europe Registration Stats - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum�
Mar 8, 2016
mrdoubleb So we have some data on our 2 missing countries:
I believe Denmark shows only 2 Teslas for February, but someone speaking Danish should confirm.
For Switzerland they do not have the detailed model list out yet, but the cumulative deliveries of pure EVs for February shows 135 - assuming 10-20 of those are other brands (there were 12 Leafs sold in January...)
Altogether looks like 650-660 for February which is a bit soft compared to January, but I would assume March will go up as shipments of January manufacturing arrive our side of the Atlantic.
The UK seems to be a wildcard with the official site not being updated for even Q4 to give us a better estimate than the Q3 based 107 per month... anything can happen there.
PS: Don't even get me started on my own country which seems to be the only place in the EU where data is not available for free (i have asked), and the only thing they do publish is 2x a year cumulatives per brand - and Tesla being mixed in "others" I would have to wait for the annual statistics (not available for 2015 yet...) to be able to report. With no official Tesla presence in Budapest yet, though, our numbers are probably immaterial - if anything we may be a market for second hand Western European Teslas like with many other brands.�
Mar 8, 2016
schonelucht Gouging by the chatter in the delivery posts on the different international model S forums I believe so.�
Mar 8, 2016
AustinPowers Thanks for the info. Unfortunately the Wiki doesn't work for me. I can't get that page to open. Or to be more precise, I can't get any page with Google docs to open. Must be some browser security setting I don't know. Mybad.�
Mar 8, 2016
hobbes On my (old) Mac I have problems using the google docs with firefox, for me Safari works much better. Might want to try a different browser, too (chrome would be the obvious choice if you like that)...�
Mar 9, 2016
Spidy March will be big, but I doubt much more than 2000 cars. So Europe won't get anywhere near those 5000 cars from Q4. Will be really interesting to see Q1 numbers a US sales also seem to be rather slow... Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard�
Mar 9, 2016
vgrinshpun I think that your conclusion about deliveries during March is incorrect. In fact a vast majority of cars, for all regions, will be delivered in March because of the way Tesla currently schedules production. Below is an explanation of how I think this production allocation works and why deliveries in Q1 will be greatly back-loaded.
In order to meet quarterly goal while ramping production of MX, Tesla production allocation is currently designed to ensure that all cars produced during the Q1 are delivered in Q1. Given that delivery in US takes 1 to 2 weeks, delivery to Europe - 5 to 6 weeks, and even longer to Asia, production is scheduled to cover each region during specific time within the quarter to make sure that all cars reash customers in Q1.
In Q4 split of US/European/Asia-Pacific deliveries was 52% / 31% / 17%. Historically, out of 13 calendar weeks in each quarter the factory is running 12 weeks, with one week of down time per quarter for tooling. Roughly splitting 12 production weeks in above proportion results in 2 weeks of production (100% of it) allocated to Asia/Pacific, 4 weeks of production allocated to Europe and 6 weeks of production allocated to US.
In order to assure that all cars produced in Q1 are delivered in Q1, the last week of Q4 and first (working, or second calendar) week of Q1 - total of two weeks per the above - were allocated to producing cars exclusively for Asia/Pacific. Given 6-8 weeks for delivery this assures that all these cars will be delivered in Q1: second week of Q4 +6/8 = 8/10. This means that all cars slated for Asia/Pacific will be delivered between the 8th and 10th week of Q1, i.e. during first and second week of March.
The next four weeks are allocated to the production of European orders. This means that last European order will be produced during the 6th week of the Q1, which leaves up to 7 weeks for delivery of the cars produced at the end of 6th week of Q1. Once again this means that virtually all European cars will be delivered in March.
Finally, from the 7th through 12th (calendar) week of Q1 the production will be fully allocated to NA, with cars designated to CA being produced last. This again will result in majority of cars (roughly 2/3) delivered in March.
The net result of the above is that almost all cars destined to Asia/Pacific and Europe will be delivered in March, while about 2/3 of cars designated for NA will also be delivered in March.
The European cars that were delivered during Jan/Feb are essentially cars that were not delivered in Dec of 2015 for one or another reason.
Finally, during Q4 Tesla delivered about 17,400 cars, 208 of them MX. So total delivered MS were 17,192. At the same time, according to the shareholder letter Tesla produced 14,037 vehicles (with up to to 13,829 of them MS). Given that Tesla producing around 14,000 Model S per quarter, the Q4 goal of 16,000 vehicles likely includes 14,000 MS and 2,000 MX. So deliveries of MS in Q1 will be roughly 3,000 less than in Q4 of 2015.
Here is how deliveries in Q1 might look:
�
Mar 9, 2016
Spidy That's all nice theory and everything, but if you look at Europe you can see that individual market matter A LOT.
Tesla has only once sold close to 3000 cars in a month and that was with the help of 1200 sales in Denmark. The other time it came anywhere near that with 2400 cars was with 1100 cars in Norway. Both countries have low sales now.
So where is Tesla going to sell those 3000 cars?
Europe 2015 Model S sales - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum�
Mar 9, 2016
RobStark Nice theory.
Nobody knows what sales are only deliveries.
Yes, we know Tesla pulled forward a lot of Danish demand because of pending punitive taxes in Denmark. The anecdotal evidence is overwhelming here and just makes a lot of economic sense.
The weakness of the Norwegian Krone and rising Norwegian economic pessimism due to falling oil & gas prices will likely have an effect.
But we go through this BS every quarter. Tesla will not find new buyers. It has exhausted all millionaire environmentalist buyers.
Then Tadah! New sales record.
Everywhere else appears to be rising demand. Particularly Switzerland and the UK.�
Mar 9, 2016
vgrinshpun Well, my theory is based on observations of delivery estimates, company projections (and the time they were made) and observation of the deliveries over 2015.
You are making a mistake of assuming that Telsa does not have enough orders to at least match the semi-steady state production of about 14,000 MS per quarter (limited by the throughput capacity of the "old" body in white line). I would really like to hear what this assumption is based on, as I am not aware of any data points that support it. The reality is that Tesla made it's projection of Q1 deliveries on Feb.10, during the last week that they were producing European cars. Eleven days before that, on Jan 30 the estimated delivery time for cars slated for European delivery changed from March to June for 70 and 70D and to Late April for 85, 85D and P85D. So by that time Tesla already had all European orders that it needed to meet the Q1 guidance.
As for the question of where the deliveries will come from, I think you are ignoring the fact that I highlighted in my previous post: that Tesla is planning to deliver in Q1 a not insignificant 3,000 MS less than in Q4. The table below accounts for historical quarter over quarter growth of deliveries in European countries with the subtracted deliveries for January and February. Using this historical growth approach (and discounting the Danish Q4 rash of deliveries) easily adds up to more than 3,000 European deliveries in March:
�
Mar 10, 2016
schonelucht Delivery estimates for Europe remained on March for 65 days, or nearly 18% of a full year. So Tesla is delivering 18% of their yearly European demand in March. Last year, European deliveries totaled 16221. Assuming no growth over 2015 (a very unfavorable assumption), this means 2920 deliveries in March and likely higher. However incredible the projected numbers in vgrinspun's table look, the observed statistics support them. At most you can make a case that Switzerland is going to be a bit higher while Norway a bit lower but it shouldn't change much when added all up. My over/under-performance threshold for March deliveries for Europe is 3000.�
Mar 10, 2016
Gerardf
I agree, I find vgrinshpun's theory and analysis convincing. Thanks for all your work tracking delivery times and sharing the results on the forum !
( Hmm : You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to vgrinshpun again. )
Countdown 3...2...1 to multiple articles on SA in March screaming how demand has now really, really, really totally crashed and Tesla won't survive the year (yawn...).
I believe it is Anton's turn.. or will Paulo be first ?�
Mar 10, 2016
vgrinshpun This is an interesting way to analyze estimated delivery time - I never looked at the data this way. It is very telling that your analysis leads to a similar conclusion as mine, although done from a different angle. Thanks for sharing.
- - - Updated - - -
ROFL. I think that this type of article would be right down the Paulo's alley. Anton seem to be more comfortable writing a type of an article that lists all ICE econo-boxes that have range greater than Model S and concluding that Tesla sales are about to seize based on that...�
Mar 10, 2016
Gerardf Did not take long, Paulo delivers :
The Tesla Supercharger Mystery - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Last part :
An Aside: Q1 2016 Deliveries
In case you do not want to give him clicks to read just that part :
At this point, InsideEVs puts TSLA's deliveries during the first 2 months of the quarter at ~3,200 vehicles. At the same time, registrations in Europe are ~1,300. If we put Asia optimistically at 60% of Europe sales, this would add another 800 vehicles.
The grand total for the first 2 months of the quarter would come to just 5,300 vehicles delivered. Even replicating TSLA's best month ever (December 2015) wouldn't allow TSLA to reach 16,000 deliveries during Q1 2016.
If we optimistically assume TSLA will double its first 2 month deliveries in March, this brings it to less than 11,000 deliveries. Deliveries much above 13,000-14,000 seem a mirage and such implies TSLA will miss its deliveries guidance when it reports Q1 deliveries in early April.
�
Mar 15, 2016
Gerardf An update again from Mr. Bacardi on the Norwegian forum
(Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!
March 12: 132 registered in Norway.�
Mar 18, 2016
All Your Bases For Denmark the estimate for March should be less that 5. Sales have stopped due to phase in of purchase tax.�
Mar 19, 2016
Spidy The wiki moved here now btw. Is there a different way to view it the old style and not as forum post?
Tesla Europe Registration Stats�
Mar 20, 2016
hobbes No, I think all the wikis look like that now. Liked the old style better, too. The only thing that helps is to switch to the expanded view all the way at the bottom of the page.�
Mar 20, 2016
schonelucht We are up to 194 in Norway for this month as of today (20th). That's a little disappointing but there is still time for a big delivery push. Just 500 (about 3000 annualized run rate) would keep us on track I think since Switzerland will be better than vgrinshpun simulation.�
Mar 20, 2016
Cobos Keep in mind it is a very early easter and that is a big thing in Norway. Not so much for the religious content, but it is a traditional vacation and Norway is closed for all intends and purposes this week. My guess is in general car sales during the easter week (where only monday and tuesday is work day) is usually less then 10% of a regular week. That's not specific to Tesla but all major purchases.
So my guess would be this year march will be bad and april will be relatively better. Or there will be a LOT of deliveries on the 29-31th of march.
Cobos�
Mar 20, 2016
Spidy I'm not sure why you all expected something different. Tesla's sales in Norway were already declining last year. Even with the big push it just got 800 sales.
15Q3 222/220/127=569
15Q4 198/225/373=796
With 200 sales in two months in 2016 so far that's just a 250 sales gap to the Q3 numbers. So 200 sales so far with maybe another 50-100 in the next days is pretty much what you would expect.�
Mar 21, 2016
hobbes Cross-posting this from the short term thread, I think the discussion fits here better - any comments from the Norwegian members here? Is this for real?!!
�
Mar 21, 2016
Yggdrasill The plan could easily change a few times before 2025, but the goal is real enough. We are going to move away from fossil fuels as soon as possible. But for it to be in any way realistic, we need a good assortment of EVs in every segment, and it's very hard to say when that will be in place.�
Mar 21, 2016
hobbes Wow. I am impressed, seems like you�re the only country that is really serious about cutting CO2. Not the typical few % here, few % there - just aim for all cars to be EVs.
There must be some concrete means in the discussion to achieve that - do you know what the strategy is? EV incentives or CO2 tax?�
Mar 21, 2016
Yggdrasill There are already some serious taxes on cars that emit a lot of CO2. Those taxes will probably increase every year, with a larger cost per gram of CO2 per km, and a lower starting point. At the same time diesel and gasoline taxes will probably increased every year.
We will see some taxes on EVs starting in 2018, VAT first and foremost, so the taxes on ICE cars will have to be increased pretty drastically to maintain the relative favourable conditions for the EVs. A poor execution here can finish off the EV sales. (Denmark is an example we should not repeat.)
At some point the percentage of fossil cars will start to really fall off, and at that point a ban is likely to get sufficient support. It would probably be a gradual ban, first the most polluting cars (non-hybrids, maybe?), then all non-plug-in, then all ICE cars. Something like that. You might also see provisions where you can apply for exceptions if you have a very specific use case, and then these provisions will be phased out at some point.�
Mar 21, 2016
RobStark California is drawing up plans to ban the sale of new ICEv and reduce gasoline consumption by 50% by 2030. In the legacy automotive business that is 1.5 product cycles away.
California Aims to Ban Internal Combustion Engines by 2030
Outside of the small North European countries look for cities and subnational governments to get the ball rolling on this, e.g. Quebec.�
Mar 30, 2016
mostapasta Looks like tracking Tesla Europe registrations just got a lot easier:
| EAFO�
Mar 30, 2016
Cobos Very nice source. And finally I can see the effect Norwegian EV incentives has on European EV sales. It seems YTD 2016 sales of the Golf e-golf and GTE are approx 1500 cars each for all of Europe.
Sales in Norway are 1250 and 450 respectively. Which does tell Julian's point about the Golf EV seem to offer poor value except in countries with good EV incentives. Tiny Norway now has 80% of the European market for the e-Golf...
Cobos�
Mar 30, 2016
Just a Reader Will Norway also stop exporting oil and gas? What about that other major Norwegian industry - shipping - which is an extremely polluting industry?
I don't intend to bash Norway, but it seems to be kind of strange to position yourself as a kind of champion of CO2 reductions when your economy is based on fossil fuels.�
Mar 30, 2016
ggr No, the Russians would invade with the EU's blessing.�
Mar 30, 2016
Model 3 Yes, eventually we will stop. But we will extract the gas/oil from where we already has started. Allowance to open new area for searching for, and start to extract gas/oil is a heated debate here.
An another heated debate is land-electricity. - instead of letting the platforms burn gas to make electricity on the platforms, we intend to use cables from land to provide clean hydro-power here.
And we do a lot to try to make even the boats as "green" as possible. Here is an article about how Tesla now is transported (a test by now) around the coast of Norway in boats driven by natural gas: (in Norwegian) http://maritime.no/nyheter/leverer-tesla-pa-dora-til-hele-vestlandet/
And I do expect you all have heard about the all-electric car-ferry? Soon it will not be alone....
And we are arguing to let natural gas from the North See replace coal to generate electricity down in the Europe mainland and GB. So yes, we are very well aware of this strange dilemma, and try to minimize it as much as we can, while still earning money on the oil, so we can afford Teslas�
Mar 31, 2016
RobStark ![[?IMG]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vjsfW2Nc2g_t18Xc9G1bH4EI_jrORYzU1pmQYyDE-Qv9pvygHqAfc4LVSKRjJTt2XdW2RiwNECppxfSWRnyCG_4rXYYdLnmmBnCoJqpt4NHuO6hTXwRZ2IKverCCSa9JDhv-c3SJ7GMzyB9mcKgp75RU3ePKBxGUzgnEAcxVwO-WsQZRmO2JPLUS6LRTBs_snzd12kbsWZmQ=s0-d)
�
Apr 1, 2016
schonelucht Europe starts to report for March and it's all good news : Sweden 142 (up from 98 last year but down from 172 last quarter), Austria 127 (up from 63 last year and 42 last quarter) and Finland 18 (up from 11 last year and 10 last quarter) Based on these preliminary numbers it is reasonable to expect around 3200-3500 deliveries in Europe which compares to 3453 last year and 5347 last quarter.�
Apr 1, 2016
mmd Is there any update from Norway? Are the Norwegian offices closed for Easter? Mr. Bacardi hasn't posted anything since March 20.�
Apr 1, 2016
maoing don't expect good news from EU for Q1. Hope China will make some play in Q1 delivery report. Sth. I'd like to see before next Monday opening:
1) beat 16K guidance by 500 or 1000;
2) strong model X delivery, 3000 or 3500. note X delivery weigh more than S;
3) China is back and very strong delivery and demand, I see Q1 China delivery alone could be on par with entire EU;�
Apr 1, 2016
Yoda101 Great find!
This indicate that the table for UK may need to be updated: United Kingdom | EAFO
2015: 838 (991 estimated)
2016 YTD: 121 (321 estimated)
Go Model 3 !!�
Apr 2, 2016
Model 3 Today:
Elbilsalget m�ned for m�ned
�
Apr 2, 2016
twan I believe these are the official numbers from Norway:
487 in March, 705 for Q1.
Bilsalget i mars - Opplysningsr�det for Veitrafikken AS�
Apr 2, 2016
schonelucht Good one! For 2015 only the last quarter is an estimate so it makes sense to modify that estimate to match the total. This would bring Q4 deliveries to 56 per month instead of 107. For 2016 we can estimate 60 in January and 61 in February. How does that sound to everyone?
We are currently up to approx 2100 deliveries in 2016Q1. Still to account for : UK (100), CH(300), NL (250), DE (150), FR (100) en DEN (100). Estimated total of 3100 deliveries this quarter in Europe.�
Apr 2, 2016
maoing Hard to believe the 2016 Q1 delivery is less than 2015 Q1 which was 3400. It doesn't sound the demand is strong in EU. The Q4 surged to 5300 number is mainly contributed to Denmark tax policy change which is one-time deal.�
Apr 2, 2016
schonelucht 2015Q1 contained the initial rush of dual drive cars for Norway. Discounting for them means demand is slightly up. However, Europe March deliveries are worth about 18% of yearly demand, making that number (only) slightly over 10k. Is the weak EURO and the economic situation in Norway finally catching up with model S demand? Or are we waiting for X deliveries?�
Apr 3, 2016
Spidy Europe only has like 5k Model X reservations and several Norwegian forum members on this forum have already said they cancelled due to the big changes in pricing compared to when they reserved. I don't think the Model S will all many units in Europe we are not that big on SUV and the price is just insane. I was actually surprised this Q1 had that many sales in Norway because it's actually more than last Q3 and almost as many as in the big Q4 push. (Kinda killed my prediction.. oops) Only guess is that some cancelled they X reservation and got a S instead.
The next price increase won't help much either...�
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