Apr 1, 2016
mkjayakumar When he said i8 is far superior to Model S, I was convinced he is trolling�
Apr 1, 2016
SFOTurtle Bingo, perfect example of what I mean.�
Apr 2, 2016
Realist My P 85 D. The very first delivered in this region and one of the very few P 85 with Sport suspension.�
Apr 2, 2016
Realist My BMW i8. Nr. 12 worldwide
Both cars are sold.
At the moment I have a Cayman GT4 and others
�
Apr 2, 2016
JRP3 I assume you've been adding to your short position with the recent price increase?�
Apr 2, 2016
SFOTurtle I would assume that he "doubled down" yet again after the price increase yesterday and since the 250,000 reservations in 24 hours, 60% of which were sight unseen. I mean, as Realist will certainly tell us, these hundreds of thousands of reservations certainly have put Tesla in a worse position than it was before, or at least it should have been priced into the stock already. More importantly, it's just a matter of time when these hundreds of thousands of people will see the light that Realist has seen, i.e., we should be buying GT4s and not wasting our time and money on the Model 3 which is nothing special.�
Apr 2, 2016
SFOTurtle Picture of some guy sitting in some i8 somewhere. How do we know that was you? How do we know you bought the car? Where's the paperwork? C'mon, these are just pics that could have been taken anywhere.�
Apr 2, 2016
Realist This should be enough, I will not post more pictures.
250.000 reservations. So what? These are refundable deposits no orders.
Audi produces 1.4 Mio cars a year with positive cash flow after capex. Market Cap is almost equal to Tesla.
Of course many of you believe Tesla will disrupt the other car makers. I do not think so.
I believe the Model 3 will steal demand from the Model S. Model S backlog will basically dry out so Tesla is likely to burn even more cash. Reliabilty issues are finally kicking in. The car turns out to be unfinished and underengineered just as I always said. And it's not improving it will get worse with the Model X.
Without any positive cash flow Tesla could still turn out to be a black hole for investor.
We had this before, think Nokia, Blackberry, Yahoo, AOL, GoPro and many others......�
Apr 2, 2016
JohnSnowNW Yes, this is indeed a "short" mentality.�
Apr 2, 2016
Robertj Dear Mr Realist
I am happy to take your money
Just ordered online my model 3�
Apr 2, 2016
rdalcanto
I believe you are 100% wrong. Model 3 will INCREASE orders for the S, because so many more people are aware of Tesla now, will go test drive, won't want to wait, don't want a significantly smaller car than the S, want a hatchback, want more luxury, etc.
Size difference of S and 3.
�
Apr 2, 2016
neroden I initially thought he was a genuine misguided short-seller. At this point I think he's a troll. His claims are just too ludicrous. I mean, you can never know, Poe's Law and all, but my goodness.�
Apr 2, 2016
LargeHamCollider Yep, can't take the guy seriously but I can take his money... If he's serious.�
Apr 3, 2016
Realist So many people called me a troll before.
It's like in the good old days.�
Apr 3, 2016
rdalcanto I've been here long enough to know that you actually believe what you write, and you aren't a typical "troll". I just happen to believe you couldn't be more wrong, and I own a lot of stock to back up my opinion....�
Apr 3, 2016
JRP3 The funny thing is his initial short position was based on a huge number of false assumptions and misinformation, and apparently he's learned nothing since that time.�
Apr 3, 2016
Yggdrasill Sure, they are refundable deposits. But they do give Tesla another 250 million dollars to play with. And even if half the reservation orders cancel, the Model 3 should be sold out through 2018. And that's even assuming a near perfect ramp.
The difference is of course that Tesla is growing rapidly, and Audi is shrinking.
This is nonsense. For one thing, the fact that there are more Model 3 reservations than Model S+X deliveries and reservations combined, suggests that Tesla has a far greater appeal than you're suggesting. Another factor is that you're basically suggesting that people cross-shop a BMW 3-series and a BMW 6-series. This just doesn't happen very often. The fact is that the Model S is punishing all competitors in it's market segment, and in all probability, so will the Model 3: #1 Large Luxury Car In US = Tesla Model S (2015 Sales Comparison)
You're basing this on what? The rapidly falling service costs per car? (As outlined in the last conference call.)
Edit: Sorry, went back and check and it was the shareholder letter: "The cost of first year repair claims on cars produced in 2015 was at about half the level of cars produced in 2014, and about one quarter the level of cars produced in 2012."
Good thing Tesla just recieved 250 million these last three days... (Not that they particularly needed them.)�
Apr 3, 2016
neroden Wow. Poe's Law strikes again. I guess no matter how crazy the belief, someone believes it sincerely. I find it quite difficult to conceive of the warped mindset which would actually prefer a gasmobile to a Tesla of the same price, and I have proof that that mindset is very abnormal.�
Apr 3, 2016
jbcarioca I8 owner drove my P85D. Ordered a P90D same day. Need we say more?�
Apr 4, 2016
Gerardf [QUOTE="Realist, post: 1454070, member: 14308"
Audi produces 1.4 Mio cars a year with positive cash flow after capex. Market Cap is almost equal to Tesla.
[/QUOTE]
Look what the main newspaper in South Germany thinks of the German car industry after the model-3 reveal :
Articles re Tesla�Fact or Fiction?
That is a (partial) explanation why Tesla's market cap is already this high compared to Audi's�
Apr 4, 2016
Zythryn So Realist, have you closed out your short position, or double down again at $245?�
Apr 4, 2016
Yggdrasill He should wait until 350 before doubling down again.�
Apr 4, 2016
Realist I do not like the price action.
Did cut the short at 247. I can live with that loss.
I still see the company and the product being overvalued but I will not fight the tape.�
Apr 4, 2016
JRP3 You saw the same thing when you first shorted years ago. Maybe shorting TSLA is not your strong suit.�
Apr 4, 2016
Johan Well hey, in the short run the stock market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. One that at the same time magically transfers money from the shorts in to my wallet.�
Apr 4, 2016
Zythryn To be fair, there are opportunities, especially in the short run, to make money shorting Tesla.
You just need to time it right and not get greedy.
Heck, if you shorted last year when Tesla was around $280 and closed the position a couple months ago you did great.
Realists problem is he misunderstands the market and the desire among many people to drive electric.
Instead, he interjects his own biased opinion and treats that as reality.�
Apr 4, 2016
Realist I did make much more money on Tesla with my longs. On the short side I was wrong most of time.
Still, time will come.
My decision to cover the short was mainly because of the reservations numbers growing and growing. I couldn't expect demand being so high.
It's not going to change my negative view on the Tesla business Model in the long run however.�
Apr 4, 2016
Zythryn Fair enough.
Even though I disagree with you on many things, especially you expansion of your subjective opinions onto a business as a whole, I appreciate your response.�
Apr 4, 2016
Sudre Realist, I hope you aren't kicking yourself too much... Altho I am sure no one could have known Tesla was going to drop the ball on deliveries.�
Apr 4, 2016
neroden What's your concept of the long run? Because in the *truly* long run, you're probably right...
In the 5-year time horizon, Tesla's got a spectacular business model which will drive dozens of other auto companies bankrupt. Namely, Tesla delivers snazzy electric cars with a long range and fast charging, and the competitors don't. And Tesla has built the supply chain to make those cars, and the competitors haven't. And Tesla has the expertise and has "debugged" all kinds of little problems in the design of those cars, and the competitors haven't yet.
In the 20-year time horizon, there are various recurring problems with Tesla management which a competitor may take advantage of to destroy them. But none of the competitors can get up to speed in 5 years. So in the 5-year timeframe, Tesla is sitting in the catbird seat.�
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