Nov 15, 2015
Lyon So, we know from the conference call that they hoped to be up to a couple hundred per week by the end of year. From my recollection of the Model S production ramp there was a very slow ramp where they built (you know, completed cars off the end of the line) 5 cars a week, then 10, then 20 and so on for a few weeks until they really flip the switch. It's pretty clear, given that Bonnie has yet to hear anything, that nothing like that is happening now with Model X.
All that's to say that I think Tesla's going to be a week or two late hitting that steep part of the production curve and most Signatures (for the US) won't be built until 2016.�
Nov 15, 2015
Matias Ok.�
Nov 16, 2015
MitchJi I think it's clear that comparing Tesla's ability to ramp production now and their approach now, with years ago when they launched the MS is incorrect. It looks they are trying to nail every production problem, and then almost literally flip the switch and start producing several hundred cars per week.
OTOH your conclusion could be correct.�
Nov 16, 2015
Lyon Oh, you're absolutely correct, Tesla's not at all the same car company they were three years ago and they will likely ramp Model X much faster than they did Model S. That said, the Model S ramp is the only other Tesla ramp I'm familiar with so it's really my only basis for comparison... it's not like Tesla's giving us any real information.
I think it's pretty clear that Tesla hasn't begun producing Signature vehicles at this point or Bonnie would have been contacted.�
Nov 16, 2015
hobbes My hope is they are building the cars but leaving out some part which can be added quickly when it becomes available (think 2nd row seats). As they don�t know exactly when that will be, they are not telling customers yet.�
Nov 16, 2015
MrBoylan +1 on that. Mark Z. said he heard from his DS his Model X was going to the paint shop. I think that was already a couple of weeks ago now. So they've certainly "begun production" but they (Tesla) aren't sure yet when the Sigs will be finished, so no promises on exact delivery dates yet. I'm expecting we'll hear something more substantial about delivery estimates this week.�
Nov 16, 2015
AlMc I believe this to be EXACTLY the case.:wink: Think seats, glass top and possibly 72 amp chargers......�
Nov 16, 2015
dirkhh Being an optimist... how about if some people with say ~Sig100 and ~Sig200 call their DS and ask specifically if their car has started production, yet...
It may be that they really are just waiting for the second row seats and once they get that production going are able to ship quite a few very closely together.
Here's hoping.�
Nov 16, 2015
gjunky I assume people are checking their mobile app to see if their car is showing yet...?�
Nov 16, 2015
scottf200 Just installed it.
�
Nov 16, 2015
Blastphemy My guess is that they're scrambling to engineer an alternate set of second row seats that fold down so that Signature reservations will have the ability to select them and not be livid when Production reservations are given that option. I bet a lot of cars are nearly complete aside from the second row, and Tesla will allow a last-minute choice for Sigs to switch.
If that's not the case, then I think everyone should be concerned. Door seals and in-house manufacturing of seats shouldn't have set back Tesla this far. If we don't see any Sig deliveries in November, that will be the second month in a row after the "launch," and I don't see any explanation from Tesla making very many people happy after that.
I guess another possibility is that they're re-thinking the 72 vs 48 onboard charger, and the internal discussions are causing delays.�
Nov 16, 2015
MitchJi Given that they have a production line that can produce 300-1,000 cars per week what difference would that make?
Tesla Motors (TSLA) Elon Reeve Musk on Q3 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
According to Elon the problem is not parts. It's solving the production problems. Hopefully they still feel " very confident of being able to get to several hundred vehicles per week by the end of the year"!
I agree.�
Nov 16, 2015
Mark Z LOL, maybe it's still in the paint shop!
No info to report with absolute silence from Tesla Motors. Reading some of the recent posts, I would hope that all Sigs would get a 72 amp charger and let the production buyers deal with a choice to upgrade later. Signature vehicles are usually fully loaded, so giving us that one 72 amp feature after giving up a center seat would go a long way in customer satisfaction, especially during the important initial customer delivery timeframe.
UPDATE: It appears that all Sigs will have the 72 amp charger! Look for the second gordonbremer post:
Model X onboard charger: 48 or 72 AMP? | Forums | Tesla Motors�
Nov 16, 2015
brianman Wasn't the old way of testing this to call up and ask how much it would cost to make a configuration upgrade of some kind?�
Nov 16, 2015
andrewket ^^ this. I would bet pizza that there are a few hundred X's sitting somewhere waiting on one or two parts.�
Nov 16, 2015
hobbes It will eventually be that fast, but probably not yet. Any car they make now and only have to add a seat will be done in an hour vs. a week at best.�
Nov 17, 2015
MitchJi Two problems with this:
It's impossible to make a car now "and only have to add a seat", until they have discovered and resolved all of the constraints. How can they possibly produce cars completed cars, except for a few parts before they know the placement of the door seals and they are still discovering other issues?
When they resolve all of the constraints, what makes you think other than running for a few hours at reduced speed, to be sure they have nailed all of the problems, that they won't be able to start producing at least a few hundred cars per week?�
Nov 17, 2015
nienco2 "I mean they are really down to like the little things, like the placement of the seal on the door and whether that results in the bright trim alignment being correct," EM
I don't know about others but if you've ever dealt with leaks or wind noise in sunroof or windows I don't consider door seals a little thing. My X won't be for a while and hopefully the early buyers won't have to deal with door seal flaws that need tweaking.
EM also said the seats were not a" gating factor" ergo something else is. fwiw�
Nov 17, 2015
AlMc I agree that poorly sealed doors and moon/sun roofs leading to noise/leaks is a real issue. IF that is the reason for production delay though...shame on TM. The Falcon Wing doors have been a staple of the X since prototype days ( 2+ years )...and they are just getting around to figuring out the placement of the seals?
*disclaimer*...I have never been involved in manufacturing but TM has been now for several years....Does anyone truly believe a single SigX has not been delivered in the 6-7 weeks since the reveal because ONLY the door seal placement is an issue?�
Nov 17, 2015
engle Based on my observation not personal knowledge of the man, Elon is a perfectionist. The way the X has been designed is one indicator. I was told by a Tesla employee I know that Elon thought of the bio-defense mode air filtration system after driving his Model S from Palo Alto to the Fremont factory and passing a large odiferous landfill nearby that really stinks when the wind blows the wrong way.
I think the issue with door seals might be robotic placement to avoid manually doing it in an expensive, labor-intensive way the Founders were assembled.�
Nov 17, 2015
FlatSix911 Welcome to Alviso ... "Where the sewer meets the sea."�
Nov 17, 2015
ecarfan My wife and my father and I are doing the factory tour tomorrow. I am hoping to see the new production line with some X bodies going through it, if they let us see that part of the plant. I did the tour about 6 months ago and the new line was obscured with huge sheets of plastic.�
Nov 17, 2015
AlMc @Engle has some new info:From Inside Sales Rep: Latest News re: Signatures, Production Configuration, etc.�
Nov 21, 2015
MikeC
A new Founders Model X at a Los Angeles Service Center, waiting to be delivered. I'm told the VIN is F0034.�
Nov 24, 2015
Oyvind.H So the configurator states X90D from mid 2016 and P90D from early 2016. Does this mean that X90D production won`t start until Q2 2016 for US reservation holders?�
Nov 24, 2015
ohmman I believe this is correct. And mid 2016, in Tesla vernacular, is December.�
Nov 24, 2015
simplejack I posted this in the other thread, but it's more appropriate here:
Tesla needs to deliver 30-40k model x next year to meet their projected deliveries. Based on their own projections they b should deliver a minimum of 15k in the first half of the year. There is absolutely no way the existing reservations will yield 15k P90D orders.
So one of the following will be true:
1. Tesla will deliver the 90D sooner than the middle of the year
2. Someone that orders in jan/Feb will get a car before someone who gave them a deposit 4 years ago
3. Tesla will miss their delivery targets again�
Nov 24, 2015
dirkhh Fixed it for you.�
Nov 24, 2015
JohnSnowNW Why?�
Nov 24, 2015
FlatSix911 
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Nov 24, 2015
simplejack If they have 40k reservations, an aggressive conversion rate is 50% (especially considering the long wait for many that have had to buy already). I don't think it's reasonable to think 75% of initial purchases for a family targeted CUV to be the performance model. If you do, then that is fine but I'd like to see some thoughts on why.�
Nov 24, 2015
JohnSnowNW It's not that I do, or don't. I was just wondering why you thought it was so unrealistic. I don't know what the current Model S "P" ratio is to compare.�
Nov 27, 2015
Macgaver I have a need for statistics when I take important decision (at the moment it is 90D or P90D decision). Since that thread is dedicated to ramp up discussions ...
I know P90D will be before 90D, but assuming you know your total position and take a 90D, at some point they will be at 800/week and I think deliveries will go fast.
Visual statistics based on the message we received (several hundred at the end of December mean 200/week for me, and 800/week in Q1 probably mean it is reached at the of that quarter)
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Nov 29, 2015
Macgaver Newer version after some discussions and reading
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