Sep 3, 2015
dsm363 Since Tesla is starting production this is a thread to discuss the speed of the rollout and other ramp up issues.�
Sep 3, 2015
Krugerrand Well, according to Eds.... :tongue:�
Sep 3, 2015
Newb :biggrin: oh no!
@dsm363: thanks for the new thread and link!
With regards to the ramp up of the X in October, I think we should pay close attention to sig and non-sig reservation holders with reservation numbers >50 reporting that they got invited to configure their cars via mytesla. If the production line and supply chain is ready to ramp up quickly in October, then Tesla should send out much more invites in the weeks ahead prior to official reveal on 29th of September.
But so far it looks like they're going to produce just a couple dozens of cars in 3-4 weeks from now, since there's little reaction to the relevant thread on invitations over there: What is the highest reservation number to get invite to configure?
�
Sep 3, 2015
Paul Carter Awesome! Thanks for starting. I've been thinking a lot about this and how we can slice and dice data in coming up with a model as well for wait times and queue length from it too. With all the great knowledge and ingenuity here, I'm sure we can come up with something.
For now I hope we have a quick ramp. Good luck Tesla. Fingers crossed for you and the happy owners that you meet your goal.�
Sep 3, 2015
KJD The ramp up speed is important, but I think the customer satisfaction level is more important to Tesla.
I would be happy to see a slow steady increase in production numbers.�
Sep 3, 2015
ohmman With Reservation 80xx, I am still hoping for a March delivery - currently that seems reasonable but we'll see.�
Sep 3, 2015
dsm363 Credit to Newb. Think that was a good idea to start over with a new thread focusing on the actual rollout instead of speculation about any delays.�
Sep 3, 2015
Alec I�m worried about the supply chain rumors and eager for any perspective on them. If Tesla really hasn�t finalized supply relationships for key components, we could be in for a very long wait. (I�m production res 2,567 and totally obsessed) But I can�t evaluate how dependable those particular rumors are. Everything else (all those robots�) makes me pretty optimistic about production ramp, but the supply chain stuff is scary.
So anyone got an angle on the actual status of their vendor relationships?�
Sep 3, 2015
Robbo Do we know how many Founders' series are in the queue? This piece from Barrons -- Tesla: The Tweets Have It - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com -- quotes Trip Chowdry (who some people don't think is a particularly reliable source) as saying:
Model X roll out will follow the typical launch path � with about 100 or so Founders Series; followed by Signature Series and then the people who pre-ordered Model X?�
Sep 3, 2015
bonnie Really doubt it's anywhere near 100. He's guessing. Model S was right around 34. I heard several months ago that the X Founder list was more like a dozen.�
Sep 3, 2015
mspohr ... and you think this thread won't be full of speculation?
I agree that it would be good to track the actual rollout but I fear this thread is destined to be filled with rumor, innuendo and baseless speculation (occasionally degenerating into... worse).
My prediction is that the Model X will roll out! (on some schedule which will only be apparent in retrospect)�
Sep 3, 2015
ZachShahan on the TMC forum???�
Sep 3, 2015
mzpolo Y'all know that all this is just begging me to throw in my WAG on the ramp up rates.�
Sep 3, 2015
Newb Sure, go ahead.
Speculation is integral part of our lifes and it's entertaining, too. And nobody is forced to read every thread of the forums.�
Sep 3, 2015
mzpolo you asked for it.... This is a total WAG What is the WAG on reservation drop outs so we can guess when I will see our X?
Week ending # produced Cumulative total 10/2/2015 25 25 10/9/2015 25 50 10/16/2015 50 100 10/23/2015 50 150 10/30/2015 100 250 11/6/2015 100 350 11/13/2015 250 600 11/20/2015 250 850 11/27/2015 100 950 12/4/2015 250 1200 12/11/2015 500 1700 12/18/2015 750 2450 12/25/2015 500 2950 1/1/2016 500 3450 1/8/2016 750 4200 1/15/2016 1000 5200 1/22/2016 1000 6200 1/29/2016 1000 7200 �
Sep 3, 2015
adiggs I'm having a hard time giving rumors of unfinished supply chain relationships any credence at all. The only place I can kind of imagine this as being reasonably possible, with production deliveries starting in a few weeks, would be completely standard parts like tires, wheels, windshield wiper blades - parts that are made by at least 2 manufacturers to standardized specs / dimensions / etc.., where Tesla can be picking the quality and cost level among competitors, where there is plenty of volume generally available in the market, and no need for any customization for a manufacturer to bring the part to market in their vehicle.
Your "if" (if Tesla really hasn't finalized supply relationships), were it true, sounds like a months or quarters delay in meaningful car shipments. Something that might have been true a year ago ramping up for this month.
My fear level on this particular 'issue' is zero.�
Sep 3, 2015
pvogel Anyone know what happens when a sig reservation is deferred? Does it get to move to the front of standard production queue or something else? I'm thinking a lot of people with Sig reservations will want to defer for standard middle row seats to get cargo space if the info about the sig middle row not folding flat or otherwise getting out of the way is accurate�
Sep 3, 2015
dirkhh Quite a few people have done so over the years and in general the impression I got was that they went to the back of the line - so you'd move about 20 thousand spots back for the US -- add in the international orders I'd guess you'd lose something like 6 months.�
Sep 3, 2015
pvogel Awesome! That would be great for me in position P1651...�
Sep 3, 2015
AlMc My WAG: cut each of your numbers in half in 2015.....all sigs (US) delivered in 2015. After that better ramp. TM might hit 5,000 total produced Jan 31, 2016�
Sep 3, 2015
mspohr I think the numbers are realistic except that they may encounter issues which hold up production.
The assembly line is certainly capable of producing at this level and as long as there are no issues, they could meet these numbers.
However, there will inevitably be quality fit and finish issues with the early production. Hopefully, most of these will have been taken care of by the pre-production but there may well be "show stoppers".�
Sep 4, 2015
Newb Thanks! I think that your WAG is somewhat conservative/pessimistic. Based on your table, we'd end up with only around 3,200 Model X produced and thus 2,700 delivered by the end of the year. TM will try their best to get to 5,000 cars produced, I think. I'd guess that the ramp up curve of the X (as stated by EM) should go steeper. Furthermore, I'm optimistic that it could lift-off earlier (=mid to late November) and accelerate in December to 750 cars per week and about 1,000 cars per week in January. So I'm giving it a try, too, and have put the two WAGs on a chart:
So, with that, they should be able to deliver around 4,000-4,500 Xs in 2015.�
Sep 4, 2015
vgrinshpun I think that this is probably very realistic projection. Elon mentioned on more than one occasion that the MX ramp-up will be much quicker than MS ramp-up. The later statements from him, however, emphsized that MX body has more complexities. So I think it is conservative to assume that ramp- up will be at least as fast as MS. If the MX deliveries start in September, and given that MS deliveries back in 2012 were 250 cars in Q3 and 2400 cars in Q4, it is totally reasonable to assume that MX deliveries in 2015 would be about the same as MS deliveries in 2012.
So I think that Tesla is very likely to deliver about 2500 MX in 2015.�
Sep 4, 2015
ptsagcy Not to be a wet blanket, but it is obvious that there are at least some supply issues as evidenced by the statement to the folks who have been invited to configure that ordering the cold weather package will delay delivery by a month. This is obviously a supplier issue.�
Sep 4, 2015
Paul Carter May have been resolved. From Model X Configuration has begun! - Page 80
�
Sep 4, 2015
mzpolo Question to the group...
What do we know about which regions will get deliveries before other regions? I swear I saw that North America deliveries would be first then other areas delayed for some reason.
Am I crazy? (well yes but...)
Looking at modelxtracker.com 25% or so of the production series X are from outside North America.
If I am not as crazy as it seems, what does this do to the delivery schedule? What does history (the S production/delivery schedule) tell us?�
Sep 4, 2015
Paul Carter I would guess this year would be US, then all other right hand drive in Q1 of 2016. Q3 for left hand drive.�
Sep 4, 2015
Lyon That's not how it worked when I deferred from my Signature Model S reservation. I moved to a spot in line that was near when I placed my original reservation. It would be possible for a late Sig reservation to be near the back but an early one shouldn't be. Emailing or calling Tesla will clear it all up.�
Sep 4, 2015
schonelucht In another thread users calling Tesla to ask about possible test drives, they report receiving an answer that there will be demo cars in the stores by the end of the year, which is also when they expect all signatures to be delivered. So that would point to a production of roughly 1500 model X cars this year.�
Sep 4, 2015
BerTX Interesting. If it matters, I still had an option for Signature when I reserved, but it closed a few days later. So if they do the same thing as you describe, then 8700-8800 is about as low as a deferred Sig would drop in the regular queue?
- - - Updated - - -
I think this is a big unknown that will influence the situation. This factor can't be related to past history, since it didn't exist for the MS release. We know that some non-US Signatures have been invited to configure their vehicles already, so I'm sure this will influence the deliveries seen in the US.�
Sep 4, 2015
Lyon Sounds about right. If you're curious, just email Tesla and ask where you'd be if you downgraded/deferred to regular production. They can certainly tell you without you deciding. \
[email�protected] still seems to get an answer.�
Sep 5, 2015
akordz What if we approach this from the opposite way? Let's start at 50,000 cars being produced/sold for 2015....per q2 conf call. We know tesla delivered:
q1: 10,045
q2: 11,500
q3: 11,500 (em estimated about q3 to be similar to q2)
q4: estimated 11,500
Model s is therefore expected to have about 44,545 sales in 2015. Model x is the difference at 5455 cars for 2015.
This could be a fair estimate, assuming the estimates for q3 and q4 are somewhat accurate.�
Sep 5, 2015
Krugerrand But that's not what Eds said. :biggrin:�
Sep 5, 2015
dirkhh 5440 cars in Q4 sounds extremely aggressive. They'll have the ~12 founders cars in Q3. They asked 20-25 Sig holders to configure their cars so far, so that might be the first week of production, so let's they these ship by 10/9. 12 more weeks from there until the end of Q4.
25 + 50 +100 + 150 = 425 in October
200 + 250 + 300 + 300 = 1550 in November (Thanksgiving)
500 + 600 +700 +700 + 700 = 3200 in December (5 weeks, but keep in mind the holidays)
That is a scary ramp that assumes no shortages with suppliers, no issues with quality, everything going perfectly. And still gets us to only 4800 total. To add 650 more cars they'd have to ramp even more aggressively in late October / early November...�
Sep 6, 2015
Svenssons 12+425+1550+3200=5187
That is 253 cars short of 5440, about two days production at the end of the year.�
Sep 6, 2015
AnxietyRanger Yep, Eds said Tesla's plan would be to deliver less than 100 cars to customers by end of the year 2015. Deliver, of course. Not just build. His/her build figure was "few hundred" for 2015. He/she also said no deliveries to customers in Q3 (one can read the founders only news one way or the other).
I don't expect Eds' less than 100 cars delivered to be accurate, neither only few hundred Model Xs built. And if Tesla delivers 5000+ cars in 2015, then of course Eds' outlook would be massively wrong there.
If, OTOH, Tesla only were to build "few hundred" Model Xs in 2015, a lot of us would be surprised, myself included - and that would certainly put a new spin on Eds' story. I don't expect that.�
Sep 7, 2015
pvogel I spoke to a Tesla rep about getting a trade in valuation for my Prius v. He suggested my P1651 reservation should deliver in 'a few months' we spoke in the context of this year. But I don't know how much he knew.�
Sep 7, 2015
lucy Wondering if those are calendar months or Elon months...�
Sep 7, 2015
AlMc If I were TM, after Sigs, local production Xs get priority for 2015.....you being in Cali makes it possible�
Sep 7, 2015
Paul Carter Isn't that what Elon said in Norway, that Cali would be first?�
Sep 7, 2015
AlMc probably....I knew that was not an 'original AlMc thought' :wink:�
Sep 14, 2015
Newb Alright folks, as suggested earlier in this thread, we'd have some new meat to process once updates are getting posted in the "highest reservation number" thread
Now it looks like the next 300 sig reservation holders got invited to configure their cars. That's really good news. Together with the Founders cars, that should sum up to about 350 configurations Tesla will have by the end of this week or so. Question: What does that mean for the production schedule?
I hope Tesla won't let people who already configured their cars wait for too long after completed configuration. Given the average Model S wait times for the U.S., I think NigelM (#313) should get his X by mid November. We'd be at 350 Model X produced by end of October then. Sounds realistic to me and slightly above the conservative estimate by mzpolo.�
Sep 15, 2015
schonelucht Depends on the drop out rate, though. 1000 sigs became 1400 sigs, which suggests a drop out rate of 40% in the lower 1000.
Pure speculation (because it is fun) :
First wave : 30 founders, no drop outs, 30 configurations
Second wave : sig #1-#30, 5 drop outs, 25 configurations
Third wave : sig #31-#175, 60 drop outs, 90 configurations
Last wave : sig #176-#325, 60 drop outs, 90 configurations
I think -minus the drop out- the invitations to configure likely closely track their internal estimate of how they want to ramp up. If so, then the only thing we need to know next is when will they actually start the production ramp up for sigs. Any of them already got a status update on factory building their car?�
Sep 15, 2015
dirkhh I believe founders were only about a dozen cars.
The drop out ration in the the third and forth wave may be a bit high - unless of course you include the people who won't press "order" until some questions are answered... then I think you may actually be low... it seems that a lot of the people with invites to configure are saying that they'll wait at least until the founder cars are delivered...
But overall I agree with you. Looks like
12-25-90-90 (or something like that) for the first four weeks.
The interesting question will be how long it takes them to deliver these cars... Because just because they get to order week by week doesn't mean that they get delivered week by week.�
Sep 15, 2015
NigelM That's exactly where I am at right now. Waiting on answers to some questions which may or may not get clarified before Sept 29th.
Exactly. Deliveries also have a geographic component.�
Sep 15, 2015
dirkhh I'd be curious how many people have actually pressed "order". Even Bonnie seems to be waiting for the answer to some question (she's remarkably quiet on this).
The tracker has 18 "orders" in it - but now I'm actually tempted to go back and ask these people if that is "ordered / confirmed / locked in" or "configured but not yet confirmed as I still have questions..."
Paul, any chance you and your minions^H^H^H^H^H^Hcoadmins could check?
[/QUOTE]�
Sep 15, 2015
Paul Carter We have an ordered field that's used in combination of the confirmed, but really I guess we need 'Invited to Configure' date instead to drive 'Orders'. Looks like most people put their invited to configure data as ordered date and prefilled confirmed with the 1 week later. I'll see what I can do so we can track this scenario too.
- - - Updated - - -
Note: Almost done! Easily added, now in beta testing. Will go live with Design Studio (Invited to Configure) once a few tests are completed.�
Sep 15, 2015
dirkhh You're the best. Would give you more reputation but I can't... need to spread it around some more, first
�
Sep 15, 2015
Paul Carter You could test and make it happen sooner if you're not busy, the super duper tester amazing Saxena hasn't passed it yet!�
Sep 15, 2015
Newb agreed. I hope that the 2nd-row-seats-gate doesn't contribute to more drop outs. In this moment I'm thinking perhaps TM is just testing responses to this cargo space issue on those ~250-300 reservation holders? And then they might literally deliver just the dozen Model X's on 29th and then just wait with production ramp up for a couple of weeks until they get that 2nd row design issue solved? Maybe the suppliers of the foldable 2nd row seats are just late? Thus, the couple of Founders might get their cars with non-foldable seats first to be on schedule officially?
No need to refer to someone called "Eds", of course, thx. :biggrin:
- - - Updated - - -
;-) I just helped you with that.�
Sep 15, 2015
WentOffGrid Yes I would agree Paul ROCKS for setting the Tracker up!�
Sep 15, 2015
ev-enthusiast
Yea, +1!�
Sep 15, 2015
schonelucht Just no. If they need to redesign seats at this point, that would be a major fail. Also, Bonnie got express confirmation that the car she will get is exactly the car with the same components as the rest of the sigs will get. No 'hand build with components that aren't the final production components' crap will happen with the X.�
Sep 16, 2015
Newb Fingers crossed!�
Sep 18, 2015
dirkhh Here's a fun datapoint (NOT).
According to this post New renderings of storage space and 2nd row seats! (9/15) - Page 53 no production cars will ship this year...
So the ramp predictions may have been a bit too aggressive. Fewer than 1200 cars in 2015�
Sep 18, 2015
Newb W w w what?!
:crying:�
Sep 18, 2015
BerTX I guess it could be a little lower number depending on how many signatures drop or defer. Doubtful they are planning to deliver foreign signatures.�
Sep 18, 2015
dirkhh Well, some people mentioned that they were on the Signature wait list. So it's possible that they can "refill". All depends on how many Sig reservation holders decide to cancel or defer, as you said.
We have seen a few here on the forum who are either planning or considering to do so, but that's of course a very small sample and there is of course strong selection bias (just to make sure the statistics police doesn't go after me).�
Sep 18, 2015
BerTX As far as I know, there has been no communication to signature buyers about the seats not folding. The only people who would know at this point are forum followers. The vast majority will apparently not know until their car is delivered.
- - - Updated - - -
As far as I know, there has been no communication to signature buyers about the seats not folding. The only people who would know at this point are forum followers. The vast majority will apparently not know until their car is delivered.�
Sep 19, 2015
ohmman There has been clear communication to the Signatures on this fact. They've relayed it to the forums which is one reason we're discussing it. AlMc among others have confirmed this multiple times.
I'm looking forward to a slower ramp more than I thought I would. It'll be nice to take my time and digest all the (hopefully wonderful) things that owners are saying.�
Sep 19, 2015
Lyon I think the point he's making is that Tesla hasn't reached out to Signature res holders on their own. All the confirmations we have come from folks asking Tesla. There will be a group of Signature reservation holders who don't hang out here and won't ask Tesla about the seats; they'll just assume the seats fold and won't know that there's been a change from the initial prototype design specs until their car shows up.
But, yes, there's no question the seats don't fold.�
Sep 19, 2015
dirkhh *Mind*boggles* - you mean there are people who have, like, a life and don't obsessively check the forum 17 times a day?�
Sep 19, 2015
doggusfluffy I don't know why you would look forward to a slower ramp. That is less revenue coming in and I thought I read they had already fully staffed and trained Line 2. Rushing or sacrificing quality wouldn't be smart...but faster is better for the bottom line of Tesla. Also, I thought we were in a race to get EV's on the roads...�
Sep 19, 2015
Lyon As impossible it is to comprehend such a thing, yes, there are be such people.... maybe.�
Sep 19, 2015
dirkhh We should have a poll.
1) I read TMC
2) I don't read TMC
3) undecided
That will give us the answer.
*snicker*�
Sep 19, 2015
FredTMC I fully expect Tesla to run their production line at full speed (less MX than guidance but more MS).�
Sep 19, 2015
doggusfluffy I hope so as well. I'm trying to remember if the Factory tour video had notes whether the 2nd line was running and producing MS currently. I think he said they planned to be able to run both in the future. Would absolutely love to see another Megafactories 2.0!�
Sep 19, 2015
gjunky 17? Slacker�
Sep 19, 2015
Signaturex What is TMC?�
Sep 19, 2015
doggusfluffy Madge, you're soaking in it. :biggrin:
Tesla Motors Club.�
Sep 19, 2015
Jeva You have to be of a certain age to appreciate that comment�
Sep 19, 2015
ohmman Let me make a distinction between preference and anticipation (looking forward). I'm not suggesting that my preference is for a slower ramp, that makes little sense. What I'm saying is that I'm looking forward to the time I'll have during their calculated, safe, and successful ramp up. This is another way of saying that I have no control over the situation and I'm looking on the bright side.
You sound more concerned as a shareholder; this I am not except incidentally, so I have little focus on the share price of Tesla. I do care about their success and am vested in that I own an MS, plan (hope) to have an MX, and the real prize would be the purported new generation of Roadster, hence my "Member" status to the left <----.
Hope that helps.�
Sep 20, 2015
doggusfluffy That makes sense. Even people who are purely fans of the MX or even potential buyers...most seem excited to the point they can't see it fast enough so I was curious.�
Sep 20, 2015
Hugh Mannity it's possible to check the site that little ? wow you must have good self restraint :biggrin:�
Sep 24, 2015
mzpolo Any thoughts from the crowd on this now that we have 448 or more folks invited to configure? Is my original WAG gonna hold?�
Sep 24, 2015
dirkhh It seems that the continued addition of more and more invites was to get to about 200-250 configured cars. Invites appear to have stopped since. And no one, not even #1/#2 have heard about a delivery date.
While communication from DES is notoriously unreliable, word on the street (so to say) appears to be that they will try hard to deliver all the US Sigs (~1200 minus cancellations + waitlist, so let's call it around a thousand) in 2015.
Several people with very low production reservation numbers have been told not to expect their cars this year (whereas one person with a low three digit P# was told to expect to get the invite in the next couple of weeks - I'd file this under confused DES... my bet is he thought that customer instead had a three digit Sig reservation).
So long story short, no, I don't think we'll get anywhere near 3000 Model X this year.�
Sep 25, 2015
schonelucht My personal take is that they have not started to build any of the signature cars. Otherwise they would not be able to offer confirmed orders the option to switch to 6 seats without delay. They won't start building them right in the middle of their end-of-quarter push. Therefore, earliest likely start-of-build date is October 1st. If everything goes well (a big if), that means the first cars roll from the factory floor one week later. It's also reasonable to expect an extended quality control for the first cars. Even when no issues are found we are still looking at the earliest possible delivery date somewhere around Oct 15. Now the nature of exponential growth means that a 2 week delay in the beginning translates in a big difference by Jan 1st. Going off your schedule : 2450 instead of 3450 cars by year-end. In reality, I would not be surprised at all if the very first signature cars are only delivered near the end of October. Based on your schedule, such a push back would mean around 1000 cars delivered by the end of the year which happens to be exactly what Tesla has informally communicated to some reservation holders here.�
Sep 25, 2015
hobbes Looks like there was another batch yesterday:
Information is spread across too many threads here IMHO.�
Sep 30, 2015
Matias So Tesla has delivered 5 Model Xes. What's next?�
Sep 30, 2015
Newb I noticed that more than 1,000 sig reservation holders seem to have been invited to configure. But I'm not sure what to make out of it. Will Tesla deliver these ~1,000 cars in the next two months or so? Or by the end of the year, just for Xmas maybe? More information needed.�
Sep 30, 2015
dirkhh No one knows. And the odd thing is that even the very first people to have clicked the order button still have no delivery estimate. The rumor continues to be that Tesla will try to deliver the Sigs before the end of the year. We'll see.�
Oct 3, 2015
macpacheco Would I be too selfish to ask who has the earliest Model X delivery date here ? Anybody has delivery for 2015 at all ?�
Oct 3, 2015
ChrisC See the comment directly above yours�
Oct 4, 2015
Matias Elon Musk in BusinesInsider
Elon Musk: The Model X is so advanced we probably shouldn't have built it - Business Insider
"The initial production run has been very difficult," Musk said. "Ninety percent of parts for the X are fine, 9% are difficult to deal with, and the final 1% is excruciating."�
Oct 4, 2015
MrBoylan Has this been posted yet? Motley Fool guys (who are bullish on TSLA) posted details of a conversation with Elon Musk, saying specifically that the windshield and 2nd row seats are still in short supply.
Tesla's Model X Facing Supply Issues - Elon Musk's Update | Watch the video - Yahoo Finance UK
"If you can tell me when and how these suppliers will deliver these parts, I can tell you how many Model Xes we'll make" (Musk, paraphrased through the Motley Fool analyst).�
Oct 4, 2015
ohmman You know, AR's been off the forum for a while, so I'm going to fill in for him here.
"Isn't this partly what Eds said?"
Apologies in advance specifically to dsm363, who is in no way interested in hearing more of this. :wink:�
Oct 4, 2015
AlMc I met him at the X reveal: He said he really enjoys it...so carry on!:biggrin:�
Oct 5, 2015
Coolcarx Investors today are saying between 4400 and 9300 model x's by end of 4th quarter. Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Jefferies, Oppenheimer Remain Bullish Despite Reducing Estimateshttp://www.businessfinancenews.com/24647-tesla-motors-inc-tsla-jefferies-oppenheimer-remain-bullish-despite-reducing/�
Oct 5, 2015
anticitizen13.7 Not going to happen IMO.
I might change my mind if Signature Series reservation holders get firm delivery dates, and regular production series reservation holders start getting invites to configure their vehicles. However I think that even 4,400 Model X deliveries for 2015 is wildly optimistic.�
Oct 5, 2015
goneskiian +1 While I might be hoping to get mine by year end I'm expecting more like mid to end of January. Production reservation was listed as sequence #3984 before they hid it.�
Oct 6, 2015
Alec I'm production 2,567 and just told my kids it'll be February or March. We know there can't be any scalable production happening if Sig #2 doesn't have a delivery date.
I'm curious about the question that's been raised as to whether the Founders even really took possession of their cars after the event. Shouldn't we have seen or heard more if so? OTOH, not sure I want to know...�
Oct 6, 2015
Gwgan One founder posted a video of his car being delivered to his house. Unboxing the model X, it's on YouTube�
Oct 6, 2015
Newb Just to make sure, there's no misunderstanding: Six of them took delivery right during the event - that was even on stage. Or are you suggesting there's more Founders that are still waiting for their delivery?�
Oct 6, 2015
Alec SOmeone on another thread suggested maybe the founders had accepted the keys on stage but given the cars back. But I apparently missed the "unboxing" thread and I think that puts that rumor to bed. Question retracted!�
Oct 6, 2015
Newb ah, okay. I missed that one.�
Oct 6, 2015
MrBoylan In addition to the unboxing video (Citrix CEO, who had his car delivered to Florida), Steve Jurvetson's friend Bubba Murarka has also been posting pictures and short videos of driving with Steve in his Model X:
Bubba Murarka (@bubbam) | Twitter�
Oct 6, 2015
phigment Are those bags over the seats in the video factory installed? Guess he really doesn't want to dirty them with his coffee.�
Oct 6, 2015
MrBoylan Maybe he just doesn't want to reduce its value on eBay?�
Oct 6, 2015
anticitizen13.7 He was probably too excited to start driving the car and didn't take off all the factory packaging!!!�
Oct 6, 2015
AlMc To try to add more levity: maybe they are part of the beta testing for folding seats :wink:�
Oct 6, 2015
mzpolo Anyone have an opening in their estimating department. My reputation precedes me.�
Oct 13, 2015
PoweredByRain That explains it! Elon is travelling close to the speed of light...
Time dilation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia�
Oct 13, 2015
Quant Dude! Listen to Elon....he knows more than you ! He said it will follow an S curve !�
Oct 19, 2015
jstoneman Has the curve started yet? It's Monday. It's been two weeks since the launch event. Could we build one Model X this week?�
Oct 19, 2015
fengshui At this point, I don't think we're going to see any Production models delivered in 2015, other than perhaps a token model to say that it was done. New Model S reservations are already booked into December (or Late December for P70).
It's too bad, because I adjusted my retirement contributions to increase taxable income this year in hopes of applying the $7,500 tax credit, and I think that might have been all for naught.�
Oct 19, 2015
Crowded Mind Should still have time to affect any 401(k) contributions to try and catch up, and most certainly can still affect IRA contributions through April, no? Would hate to see this cause you any tax inefficiency.�
Oct 19, 2015
fengshui 401(k) contribution changes sometimes take 4-6 weeks to take effect at my employer, so I'll need to decide this week if I'm going to try to catch the window for December payroll. IRA contributions are an option, although I usually prefer the Roth.�
Oct 19, 2015
Matias Production ramp up is going extremely smoothly :tongue:�
Oct 19, 2015
goneskiian If only a bit on the flat side. ;-)�
Oct 20, 2015
ptsagcy What makes you say that? There is no info and apparently no sig's have been produced yet - so there is no ramp-up yet.�
Oct 20, 2015
7racer I am sig 171. Just got an email from my DS that my car now has a VIN and ETA of Nov 16th!!!!�
Oct 20, 2015
pGo Is it possible to share the last 3 digits of the VIN? Looks like progress!�
Oct 20, 2015
FredTMC Wow. VIN would be great along with some other MX sig owners with delivery ETAs... Bonnie?�
Oct 20, 2015
PGeer I'm Sig#205 and just got my VIN#169. No emails from my DES yet though.
Encouraging.�
Oct 20, 2015
engle Has anyone taken a factory tour recently? Did you see anything eXciting you can mention without violating your tour NDA?
Off-topic:
Forgot to mention in another thread... When I was at the Factory Store on Monday, I volunteered to photograph a very-excited-looking Millennial couple in front of the huge "TESLA" sign on the factory. They told me they're tourists from Czechoslovakia. Volunteered they can't afford the car yet, so I told them about the Model 3 being unveiled in March, 2016. This story demonstrates the kind of worldwide brand awareness that Tesla has built without spending a dime on any advertising.�
Oct 20, 2015
mrdoubleb Wow! Tourists from Czechoslovakia? Were they time travelers?�
Oct 20, 2015
Newb Hmm, was that Marty McFly with friends, pretending to be Czechoslovaks? Good move, Marty.�
Oct 21, 2015
Matias It's THE DAY so very likely!
�
Oct 21, 2015
ohmman I don't remember everyone looking down into their phones in BTTF2.�
Oct 21, 2015
engle I meant Czech Republic - apologies to all non-time traveling Czechs on TMC!
You guys all made me laugh this AM! Of course I meant the Czech Republic! My apologies to all Czechs on TMC.
Perhaps I was having flashbacks to 1975 when I traveled with my Mom and Stepdad to Yugoslavia and Budapest (I'm 1/4 Hungarian). She needed special DoD permission to go because of her sensitive CORADCOM position. I didn't tell her about the highlight of my trip until we left Yugoslavia. I was detained for about 3 hours in Dubrovnik at the military police station after I'd gone hiking on my own (too bored to see yet another museum, etc.) I shot an 8 mm film of a Yugoslavian MP holding his machine gun in front of the guardhouse. When he started walking towards me waving his weapon to signal "come hither" I decided it would be best to immediately comply so I raised both arms with camera in hand and walked slowly towards him. It didn't help matters that I had hours of cassette tapes and a Sony tape recorder in my large camera bag slung across my shoulder! The Commandant had a scary-looking scar across his face, and absolutely no sense of humor when his meal was interrupted when a 16-year old American teenager was brought in to meet him...
I returned to Dubrovnik in the Summer of 2013, but it was a cruise stopover so I didn't have time to see if that police station is still there. I just checked Google Maps and it is:
https://goo.gl/maps/bppzusXd48D2
https://goo.gl/maps/XwHaLyrS4H42�
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