Thứ Bảy, 31 tháng 12, 2016

Elon: Model X Q2 Production 1,000 per week part 1

  • Feb 6, 2016
    CTemp222
    In a new Q&A in France Elon said that Q2 MX production will be 1,000 per week.

    Here's a link to the thread with the video.
    Elon Musk QA in France
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    Elon says

    1. Model X will be available later half of 2014
    2. Powerwall will install summer 2015
    3. Model X was not delayed by Falcon wing doors (then they sued the original designer and switched in May 2015)
    4. Model X was introduced and ready for production in Sept. 2015
    5. There will be ludicrous mode upgrade for Model S's - mine is still not delivered and "no time is available" according my m Server Center in sunnyvale
    6. The original Model S would drive 300 miles
    7. The P85D would go 280 miles and was more efficient than a single drive car
    8. Tesla would never release a car that wasn't as good as the concept car - lack of 2nd row folding seats vs. the concept that had 2nd row folding seats
    9. Tesla would ship close to 58,000 cars in 2015 - later revised down to a lower 50k number
    10. The Model III will be unveiled in March - now revised to some sort of partial unveiling
    11. The company is 100%n focused on the Model 3 - factually incorrect given all the late breaking engineering issues with the X
    12. Employment numbers of the giga-factory - now shows to be grossly overestimated
    13. Reliability of the Model S drive train - actual reliability data shows that 2/3'rds of the drive trains are being replaced in the 60,000 mile range - not a customer problem, but certainly an ongoing reliability problem and cost to the investors and company in general
    14. The original P85D delivery schedule - later delayed due to lack of next generation seats
    15. There won't be a major revision of the Model S for at least a year - 6 months later the "D" is introduced
    16. Any of the supercharger roll out schedules - while they have rolled out it's much slower than Elon indicated it would be
    17. How long it takes to charge at a super charger - much slower when you're sharing a supercharger with another Tesla
    18. Battery swap stations
    19. come on people - there's a lot more - let's turn this thread into "Lie's Elon told me and I believed!"

    I'm not saying Tesla doesn't accomplish things - some of them are even true - but quite often the timeline is materially different than what was indicated and the technology or plan is introduced with the most optimistic schedule that rarely bares any resemblance to reality and often delayed with foreseeable obstacles or lack of resourcing that is readily apparent to most anyone at the time it leaves Elon's mouth.

    forgive me if I do not believe a word that comes out of Elon's mouth.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    maoing
    well said. the more you "blindly" trusted Elon, the more money you lost in past two years.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    has anyone else notices that "next quarter" has always been the quarter that the Model X would finally do "blah"�it's always next quarter that they will finally get it done.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    DougH
    Wasn't he just in China?
  • Feb 6, 2016
    ankitmishra
    Tesla is going to sell X in large numbers and is going to win many accolades for the innovation in the car. Deadlines are just estimates. They are to give people a rough idea of how long the process might take. There is always a margin for error. The more innovative task you are performing, the more that margin maybe. But delays don't matter. What matters is Tesla is taking humanity into the direction it never has been in, slowly but surely towards a beautiful and exciting future. (my humble opinion).
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    public statements that are factually incorrect by a CEO of a public company are material information and should not and can not be estimates. Elon is desperately trying to save the stock price now that the investors have figured out that the company has designed a product that can not be built. Elon should quit speaking because most everything that comes out of his mouth is wishful thinking, which isn't a bad thing if he wants to dream and fantasize about the future - but fantasy estimates and wishful thinking has no place as material information from an insider and executive of a publicly traded company. If he continues to do it, it actually is a criminal offense and at a minimum he could lose his position with the company if the board of directors has any balls.

    I know ankit loves his/her rose colored glasses but successful companies do not engage in estimates and fantasies and they don't design mass produced products that can not be mass produced.

    I have seen 3 Model X's on the road - the Falcon wing doors on all 3 are grossly mis-aligned and not befitting of a $150,000 automobile.

    Elon needs to quit confusing his wishful think with material statements - if he wants to engage in pushing us to places we need to go he should do it in the context of a big thinker rather than as CEO making material statements that his company can not follow through on.

    I like most of Elon's ideas, and he is quite good at predicting the future, but is extremely lousy at providing an accurate schedule and reasonable estimates. He also tends to engage in overdesign and does not respect people's investments in his products - by rev'ing them so quickly and so often he routinely accelerates depreciation of his customer's capital purchases and disrupts the market by claiming to deliver technologies that really can't be delivered on a schedule or to the fantasy specifications he claims.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    Red Sage
    AD_-_Tesla Motors - Remain Calm and Grin Spike Logo.png
  • Feb 6, 2016
    ModelXBoy
    1000 Model X per week is based on all parts are available at time of build. If something is out of stock, like the Black Onix wheel, the car will be delayed anyway.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    ankitmishra
    He does what he says, he just does it late. And no one can predict the unforeseen problems that one may face in an endeavor. He is an important person for whole of humanity who inspires people all over the world whenever he speaks. He is not only breaking new ground but simultaneously transferring his knowledge and vision to the next generation. We don't want again a period where humanity stops progressing and falls to its violent ways. Ideas are what guides us away from our basic nature. He gives us things that make us hopeful whenever he speaks. He stretches himself thin most of the time while giving estimates, but people want to hear estimates. They want to know when we will go to Mars, when Model 3 will be available to buy, when hyperloop will be ready. He is working at his limit and the least we can do is be patient when he misses his deadlines. He always achieves what he says, just maybe not in the required time frame.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    quartzav
    9% under Tesla's projection in my opinion is not grossly overestimated. That would lead to "more than one word from Elon's mouth" that you can believe. Whether you want to believe is another story :tongue:
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    he can achieve what he says - if he's not sure of the time line he shouldn't announce one - to do otherwise is in fact criminal. it's called misleading investors.

    You can push humanity and do what you say - and you can do it in secret and only announce once it's ready.

    Elon is lying most of the time - to call it otherwise it simply denial.

    No one is compelling him to discuss schedules - he volunteers the information - he calls the press conferences.

    He can continue to push humanity - but he should do it more quietly and announce when ready. The impact would be huge and the accomplishments major if he did what he said he was going to do when he says he is going to do it.

    So far most of his claims are suspect and amount to a pattern of lying to investors. This chicken will come home to roost. And already partially is given the recent stock price tanking - which will continue.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    Macgaver
    Every new model of Tesla come with initial doubts and stress. It's mandatory when you bring so many inovations all over the product. All SUV on the road look the same and do the same.

    I believe that in 6 months the Model X will once again prove everyone that, Yes, it really is amazing and without any alternative out there, and this will make the car of the Year for this reason.

    Nothing is perfect, but at least they try, and for this reason they have my thrust.
    Lets have some faith!
  • Feb 6, 2016
    andrewket
    The comment about no major changes to the S for a year was said AT the "D" event, and was true.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    lango
    He is putting dates on things for several reasons:

    Generate interest in the company and the products.
    Motivate/force the company and it's workers to work really hard. The pressure goes up if there is a public date set.
    Information removes uncertainty and makes them set the agenda. This is working far from 100% but it is much better than no information at all.

    As an investor you can add half a year to the dates.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    JRP3
    My responses in red.

  • Feb 6, 2016
    ankitmishra
    Yes. He has learnt that. Maybe that's why he has said that the Model 3 reveal will be done in staggered manner. And the only information relevant to investors is given in the quarterly earnings call. He speaks a lot of time as public figure too. Whatever he has said recently he has achieved it in the required time frame. Even if you glance at your statements, they have come from Tesla won't be able to produce X at all to I have seen 3 X with imperfect doors. That's huge progress. Tesla will get those doors too. And his deadlines are more accurate now. We will see significant rise in X deliveries this quater.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    6. Model S will drive 300 miles if you don't actually drive it at HWY speeds - Elon only later revised the range after delivery was showing no one actually drives 300 miles - I know the Model S can go farther than 300 miles but it has to be driven quite slowly

    8. I believe the existing threads on lack of folding 2nd row seat shows that people consider the current Model X to be "less" than the concept car.

    9. Material change on a publicly traded company - original number included Model X deliveries which to insiders should've been obvious they couldn't meet - especially when they knowingly were changing design of falcon wing doors in May of 2015 by having to go with another vendor

    10. Tesla Wont Properly Unveil The Model 3 Next Month | Ubergizmo - yes that was what was said - it will not be unveiled in March - and it won't ship in 2017 - but we'll see

    11. employment will be lower

    13. Two-Thirds of Earliest Tesla Drivetrains To Need Replacement In 60,000 Miles, Owner Data Suggests

    14. The knew the seats were a problem - they didn't have to announce - if you don't have your supply chain lined up you don't announce products.

    15. Foreseeable outcome given long standing real world experience with building permits and problems with construction and weather - again no one forced him to declare a schedule.

    16. Yes Tesla's website said 20 min for a very long time - they later revised it and clarified by explaining it can take longer - they still do not discuss that it will take substantially longer if you're sharing a spot with another car changing.

    19. Elon has announced they will not be pursuing any further battery swap stations - tesla battery swap stations - Tesla's battery swap program is pretty much dead - Fortune
  • Feb 6, 2016
    CarlK
    Detractors reaction of good news is really something.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    it's not a reaction to good news - it's a reaction to probably another lie that is foreseeable incorrect�

    but apparently if it's incorrect JPR3 will think it's perfectly ok for a CEO of a publicly traded company to make factually incorrect statements by stating "Stuff happens, I'm guessing Elon�"

    Why is everyone willing to give Elon such a pass on missing deadlines and schedule - does anyone disagree that Tesla would be more successful and more respected if Elon kept doing what he was doing but only announced closer to an actual product deadline?

    Surprise and delight and ship when you say you're going to ship and Tesla would be outrageously successful.

    Elon does not have to preannouce this stuff.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    ankitmishra
    A lot of people spread negativity about Tesla. Tesla works in unknown waters of which people do not have knowledge. No one has made EV's like these before. So what do people trust? It's better to give them rough estimates rather than let them be misguided by misguided people. So, in my opinion it's important to speak even when things are away. It also generates people interest and make Tesla less susceptible to failures as there is always something to look forward too. (my humble opinion)
  • Feb 6, 2016
    peteyswift
    As bombastic as dortor4ev's tirade sounds, I can't say that any of it is completely off base. Add "691hp" and "85kwh battery" to the list.

    Now I will shut up and fall back in line. [emoji13].
  • Feb 6, 2016
    roblab
    Now, see, you have it figured out. All of us who have been here more than a year have gotten to know Tesla, and Elon. There isn't a person in the world whom you can trust implicitly. There's always a caveat. There's always a hidden meaning, or a time frame that's different. And I think Elon really tries to give what he feels is right.

    Some people seem to think that any company or CEO must say things exactly, or not say anything. Have you ever noticed how advertising of just about every product on the market is based on innuendo and obfuscation? I laugh out loud watching car company ads, but they are all the same: Lies, silly comparisons, shading of words. But "we" expect Elon to give us accurate information so we can do some insider trading on our TSLA stock, right?

    Come on, you complainers. Get over it. If Tesla says they will make a Model X with falcon wing doors, you think they will? Or must it be perfection NOW? My whole life I have been told to never buy ANY make of car that was built on Monday or Friday, and never buy a new model until after a few thousand have been sold. Has that changed?

    Or do you think you're seeing something new and different? (and I don't mean YOU, ankitmishra)
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    supply chain problems are not unknown problems
    changing engineering vendors in the later half of a product design phase is not unknown waters
    having seat supplier problems that were documented in Feb. of 2015 is not unknown waters

    and yet these are just some examples of where Elon continued to spout crap about schedule and deliveries when it was well known and completely foreseeable that they could not meet their public commitments

    an not it's not necessary to pre-announce things with a schedule to generate interest - it in fact makes Tesla more susceptible to failure because it allows competitors and others to call Tesla out on their failures.

    Pre-Announcing a schedule you can not meet in no way helps any company - and in fact has a long history of leading those companies to go out of business.

    Keep your mouth shut until you can deliver, deliver and smoke your competition.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    JRP3
    Responses in red again.

  • Feb 6, 2016
    roblab
    If I felt like you, I would not buy a Tesla. But I did. Best. Car. Ever.

    There is no competition.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    I have owned a P85 and now own a P85D - I agree they are good cars, but they are not the best car ever simply based on defect rate - most defective new car I've ever owned (two times in a row) but I still love it.

    However these cars will be a huge liability if Tesla goes out of business because Elon can't keep his mouth shut and keep misrepresenting the companies abilities and progress.

    I live in fear of the cost/depreciation of a Model S with no Tesla company to support it or keep it current.

    Think about how good your car would be with out Tesla's data services, service centers, parts.

    I want Tesla to succeed, I need Tesla to succeed - we will all lose a lot of money if Tesla fails - and Elon's mouth writing check's his butt can't cash does not help Tesla the company, it's investors, or it's customers�

    Think about the disposal cost of a Tesla Model S with out Tesla to support it - it will be a huge liability and the car's repairs will be nearly impossible (ever try and get a Deloran fixed or how about a Tucker).

    I love the product, I love the vision, I love the company but Elon has got to shut the f**k up and simply start delivering rather than tell us he's going to deliver.

    I'm actually Tesla's biggest fan - but I'm not going to let them off the hook by following a playbook that has known and damaging outcomes, and so far provably hasn't helped.

    Picture what the outcome would be if Elon hadn't announced the Model X 3 years too early - and simply said we're working on our next product and currently selling all the Model's S's we can make - then announced the Model X founder's edition in Sept. 2015 (like they did) and then stated they would be ramping production in 2016 and start taking deposits in late 2015 and early 2016...I believe it would be a totally different outcome - and wouldn't have required Elon to make crap up and he still could've done what he set out to do.

    Disclosure is _NOT_ required to succeed, in fact it often hinders success and sets up unrealistic expectations.

    I'm not asking Elon to stop what he's doing - just stop telling anyone about it until he can deliver it.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    eye.surgeon
    I'm starting to wish Elon had cancelled another guy's order.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    So out of 18 lies - only 7 of which are subject to interpretation - the other 11 (+2 more I forgot about 85 kph and 681 hp) lies/factual incorrect statements are perfectly fine for a CEO to make about a publicly traded company.

    no wonder so many people vote for the politicians they vote for - apparently there is no accountability regarding actually accomplishing what you say - it's just what you say with no actual follow through.

    Elon's shouldn't state they are going to produce 1000 model X's per week - he should report they did product 1,200 a week in Q2 and that they continue to see strong demand. Will have a radically different outcome for company, investors, and customers.

    Now all he's done is setup for disappointment and made potentially materially incorrect statements on something he can't control because according to JPR3 "stuff happens"

    there was no need to disclose 1000 per-week - and it's likely to be incorrect. And if it can be proven Elon knew different when he said it it's a criminal offense.

    - - - Updated - - -

    eye.surgeon - no need to cancel my Model X order - I self canceled - I forsee too many issues and determined the Model X was not for me (after waiting in line for nearly 3 years). So Elon doesn't have to cancel it.

    But I appreciate you mature response to some thought observations and it speaks well to the Tesla's communities grounding in reality, I'm sure Elon's continued public fantasies about Tesla's production and financial perform will only lead to rising stock prices and unlimited production capabilities. Elon will be allowed to continue to say what ever he wants and there will be no risk to the company we all rely on for our cars to function on a daily basis and it will all come up really really rosy.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    JRP3
    I'm not saying that Elon is blameless, I'm just pointing out that some of what you claim is open to interpretation and some of it is simply wrong. If you want to complain about something check your facts first to make sure it's an actual problem.

    By the way, you can still get your DeLorean repaired, and even buy a new one. http://www.delorean.com/
  • Feb 6, 2016
    ankitmishra
    Elon has nothing to be blamed for. He needed to generate interest in the company otherwise lack of momentum would have sinked it long time ago. It was only through constant promises of future features and products has he managed to generate so much interest and growing sales in the company. People aren't going to skip well proven ICE technology unless they are motivated enough.
    Don't worry. Tesla sales are increasing year by year. Stocks go up and down all the time. It was at 280 some time ago, it can't go on increasing. It will bounce back again.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    Martin VanB
    Respectfully, I believe people are trying too hard to be upset over little things.

    While I understand it can be disappointing that you may not have your MX yet, or it sucks that it's not perfect when it arrives, or that a first generation vehicle from the only new american car company in the last 50 years does not come with a flux capacitor and allow time travel.

    I think we are forgetting that for a new company they are hitting it out of the park. Serious Babe Ruth numbers without steroids. I mean the guy is a billionaire spaceship and car builder, and solar panel whatever that other company does manufacturer. I think he even works as a cop in Brazil part time.

    Tesla is a pure american underdog story and they are killing it. Will they make 1000 a week? That would be pretty cool. Do I care? Not really, because at the rate the are going they will get there.

    The company seems to be very conscientious about production and standards. All the haters will hate and the fanboys will fawn but somewhere in the middle is the truth and just like none of us are perfect and still continue to evolve I think Tesla will continue to hit it's marks. The end result will be pretty good because they are plodding along and creating a very good product and their plan is simple and makes sense.

    And for what it's worth I do not think any of the other auto manufacturers will ever sacrifice short term profits to build EV's as their bread and butter lines so Tesla will have this space to itself for a long time to come. Sure they will make a few cars here and there but they are very entrenched in what they are currently doing, they can't really change too much too quickly.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    McMuggets

    Dude you really have got to simmer down. Invested too much in TSLA on margin or something? Look, Elon's statements are super optimistic and almost assumes that everyone around him can work 80 hour weeks like he does. It's almost like he sees this inevitability to things so clearly that he doesn't take into account human errors and other suppliers screwing things up. What he really needs is a "Tim Cook" to his "Steve Jobs". Someone who is a master of day to day operations and supply chain management. That way he can concentrate on the vision and probably get better accuracy with timeline predictions.

    This being said, you cannot say that being overly optimistic is a criminal offense. To his credit, he's getting more tentative about estimates lately because he is starting to realize the above. Everything he has said would happen, did happen eventually. Who's the criminal... the optimistic CEO or the slow pace of the industry and the hidden people working against Tesla's success? What about former GM bigwig Bob Lutz going on a financial network (CNBC) and giving stock advice to sell all your Tesla stocks before the company goes upside down? He also takes every chance he gets to rip Tesla and spread false information based on hearsay.

    In the end it's all a game. The market makers and shorts probably work together and know what's coming. Three analysts report a week before earnings to tear down the stock just days after short-interest piles on even more. Shorts make money. Innocuous article about Elon cancelling a douchey buyer's order... shorts make money. Then more fear articles published and then finally Lutz tells people before market open one day to dump all Tesla stocks. TSLA hits new low and shorts start covering their bets. Why was he given this pedestal by CNBC suddenly? Don't get caught up in all of this and start hating the CEO of Tesla. For once, Elon is staying quiet as you've asked despite all this misinformation and chatter. Let's see what earnings brings and what the macro looks like next week. The stock could half or leap forward suddenly. But definitely not all "Elon's fault"
  • Feb 6, 2016
    lango
    I think it is an interesting discussion to be had why they set themselves up for hard numbers and a deadline, for example $35k after incentives and reveal in March for Model 3.
    Why not just say it would be much cheaper than Model S and Model X and roughly priced as a 3 series or something and be revealed first half of 2016.
    If they can only make them for $40k and/or reveal in June with this promise they have to raise the sales price and take a big hit in reputation, sales and the share price. I don't doubt there is a reason they operate this way but I don't know for sure why.

    I think it strengthen the brand and coolness of Tesla and more people are willing to wait for Model 3 instead of buying something else the more they promise. I also think it makes everyone work really hard at the company. So I guess those are the main reasons for it. The hype has also elevated the share price which matters for employee options and less dilution.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    own no stock - no Model X order- own a P85D - sold Tesla stock @ 225 shortly after Model X "reveal" - will consider buying again once it bottoms out.

    still confused as to how so many people are fine with Elon making crap up.

    And it is a criminal offense to make material statements (dates & quantities are material information) about a publicly traded company if you have knowledge they are false. The question is (which is hard/impossible to prove) does Elon know they are false. People will differ on that analysis.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    McMuggets

    And that's where things get fuzzy. His statements are estimates, and he always says "we should be..." or "I believe it will be...". Hard to prove criminality in these cases, as you can't say he knew it was definitely not going to happen.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    from the video - here is what was said:

    Musk: "

    @4:10 mark

    "So we got the Model S in production at about a thousand units a week - and we're trying to ramp up the Model X to roughly a comparable number of a thousand units a week - and hopefully we should be at that, at that production level around - well close - ummmmmm - maybe sometime in Q2 of this year - so for those of you that have a Model X on order�"

    body language is interesting during the statement about Q2 production - he's confident and looking straight ahead for the Model S number - and he's more tentative and ummmms/ahhs a lot while making up the Model X numbers (yes I know I said "making up" - LOL I still believe he doesn't honestly know and shouldn't have said anything)

    Q2 results phone call will be when we find out the truth.

    My statement would've been as follows:

    "So we got the Model S in production at about a thousand units a week - and we're working hard to ramp up the Model X - Q2 is going to be a big quarter for us - so for those of you that have a Model X on order stay tuned we'll be working hard to deliver your vehicles."

    there now he doesn't have to lie about the numbers and still provided direction about how hard they are working to make Model X's.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    Darryl
    I believe the information and timeline Elon provides is based on what he knows to be true at the time he makes the statements I also do not feel he is purposely misleading anyone. The problem is this leading edge or bleeding edge technology and therefore it is hard to come up with accurate timelines. Your are definitely not an attorney and unless you have concrete proof that he had lied then you should keep your opinion and inflammatory statements to yourself. As for being fired get real, at last count Elon owns over $800 million in stock. As for the Tesla stock tanking are you aware the whole market has tanked. This has very little to do with TSLA but more to do with the price of oil, world markets (especially China) and employment figures.

    No one is compelling you to buy a Tesla or buy Tesla stock. Do you have skin in the game, I.e. Are you a Tesla owner? Do you own Tesla stock? I didn't like to wait this long for my Tesla Model X but I didn't whine like you. I will be a Tesla owner as of next week and I own Tesla stock. Matter of fact even with TSLA stock down I still have made enough to buy a couple of Model X's. As an investor in Tesla stock I have more problems with you than I have with Elon.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    ankitmishra
    He already said that they will achieve few hundreds of X per week. And they did that by end of last quater. Now, they will achieve 1000 X per week. What's the problem here?
    Cool. It's a nice hypothetical statement for your hypothetical company. Hope it does well in your imagination. I will take Elon's method cause its working damn fine.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    Darryl

    I suggest Elon ban you from purchasing a Tesla like he has done to others who have made inflammatory and derogatory posts about him and Tesla.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    dortor4ev
    wow point out that Elon makes some things up some times and you really rattle the natives

    I do not work on wall street
    I am not shorting/longing the stock
    I do own a Tesla P85D

    and I want Tesla to do better and believe Elon's statements do not always help and he's un-necessarily specific.

    But feel free to discount me - and TSLA stock has not dropped in proportion to the market -

    240 on 12/31/2015 (source Yahoo finance historical chart)
    162 on 02/05/2016

    240 - 162 = $78 share loss
    78 / 240 = .325 - or a 32.5% loss in less than 60 days

    SP 500 Index - CNNMoney.com

    S&P 500 loss year to date is 8.02%

    so it's lost 4 times more than the market

    but wow - really wow - you all must hate me now - I'll remember not to share facts in the future that rattle your little EV cages....but I'll still enjoy my EV in the carpool lane in Silicon valley.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    ankitmishra
    It rose from 180 to 280. Please don't ignore that. It's value is built on future value hence it will rise more and fall more than the market. If you want stability better invest in Google or Apple. And no banning needed. It's just a discission. Tesla isn't some misguided country banning things and people.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    ohmman
    Quoting a stock price is ridiculous as support for your argument. Neither side should do that.

    dortor4ev has some valid points: Everyone needs to accept that Elon consistently fails to communicate reasonable timeframes. He's overly optimistic to a severe fault, and as the vocal head of Tesla, probably ought to reign that in. I personally have not heard his "forward looking" statements bordering on criminal. Nothing quoted here would qualify. But they're certainly misleading if you don't discount them as "Elon time".

    At the same time, he's leading the charge for something(s) pretty huge and meaningful. It's difficult, and he's going to make missteps along the way. We should absolutely point out the faults and accept the truth for what it is. While I think dortor4ev escalated the argument to a bit of aggression, the responses were also unfair.

    Can we agree that Elon needs help with timelines? That Tesla does a lot of things exceedingly well, but could use improvement in other areas? I mean, there's a middle ground here, right?
  • Feb 6, 2016
    peteyswift
    ^^^Agreed[emoji106].
  • Feb 6, 2016
    AudubonB
    Frustration level is justifiably high at present and I'll stand behind any who want to voice their frustrations.

    To call someone a liar - as the OP has done repeatedly in this thread - and to aver flat out that there has been criminal activity, is at a level far above voicing frustration, however. That the OP has tried to couch his or her too-strong words by saying "...criminal...if he knows the words are false...impossible to prove" does not mitigate the inappropriateness of the wording.


    Regardless, I will provide the OP an out, if s/he agrees to take on the following assignment:

    * Please peruse with as fine-toothed a comb as you have done for Mr Musk the past four years' statements from each of the CEOs of the largest 25 US corporations, and let us know how their pronouncements fare according to your standards. I suggest we all take the Dowager Countess's words to heart:

    Tell me, does it ever get cold on the moral high ground?

    On edit: I apologize - not the OP but poster # 2: "doctor4ev"
  • Feb 6, 2016
    ptsagcy
    Well said ohmman
  • Feb 6, 2016
    ankitmishra
    @ohmman
    I dont think Tesla needs help. It's doing fine. But hey, I might be overly optimistic about Tesla and might be terribly wrong. Agree to disagree.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    ptsagcy
    Ankit "overly optimistic" Surely you jest ;-)
  • Feb 6, 2016
    eloder
    Worst argument I've ever heard of maximizing value for the consumer.

    Meanwhile, the Model S is the #1 selling luxury sedan in the US and also the only luxury sedan in the US to increase in sales from 2014 to 2015.

    Sorry you lost money on TSLA. That doesn't make Tesla a bad company, or Elon a bad CEO.



    TSLA has lost about the same amount as Google, Amazon, Ebay, Twitter, and a whole host of other major tech stocks in the same time period. And Facebook is having explosive revenue growth.

    What do you expect? It's a high beta stock. It's acting exactly like every other high beta stock right now. Its stock price, by the way, has performed better than most major automakers in the past 12 months. Even from a stock argument, very little water is held.

    I have significant unrealized losses right now in TSLA, but that's not going to make me go around and bashing the company. Tesla is an incredible, amazing company that has and will continue to significantly change the world. The fact that investors have lost money is not going to change that.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    Skotty
    Elon doesn't make anything up. He is, however, sometimes overly enthusiastic about what can be done and on what timeline, and sometimes may even be wrong.

    The stock price is quite volatile and bounces quite a bit. There's money to be made there, if you have money to invest and carefully pick the buy and sell points. You just have to have faith that the company won't go belly up, which isn't too hard when you recognize the passion, commitment, and talent they have.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    CTemp222
    Holy moley!! What did I start??? I left for six hours and I come back to this? Looks like I got my work cut out for me.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    omarsultan
    If by "facts" you mean things you are making up or misconstruing so you can be outraged, then sure, you are sharing facts.

    a5fd9f50473ea78ab4a5668771803996dfaebe931facffc060a9c530337dc7e7.jpg
  • Feb 6, 2016
    Red Sage
    Y'know, this button really came in handy:
    Tesla Motors_-_Ignore Button.png
  • Feb 6, 2016
    maoing
    some of the Tesla fans just simply ignore the facts and blindly worship Elon Musk, and most likely those guys lost tons of $ in the past two years :wink: from Tesla.

  • Feb 6, 2016
    CTemp222
    Okay so Elon has stated multiple times that he's optimistic, so when he makes statements like #1 that's assuming that nothing major goes wrong.
    For #2 I think that because production of the powerwall shifted from the Fremont factory to the Giga-factory which delayed it a couple months.
    #3 What do you mean, the Model X is the most ambitious car that Tesla has ever made, the doors are the most complicated part about it. Tesla had to switch providers because the original one made promises that they didn't keep, this definitely delayed the MX.
    #4 Technically yes it was, I think the delay was because Elon felt pressured by investors to reveal the car and promise deliveries in 2015, if he wasn't pressured i'm sure he would of delayed a bit longer to polish up the assembly line. But in the end they did start deliveries in 2015.
    #5 I don't know enough about your SC to comment.
    #6 That's technically true, people have driven it over 400 miles.
    #7 pretty sure at highway speeds it is because they are different "gears" so they're more efficient at different speeds, but I could be wrong about this one. #8 Thats completely up to opinion. #9 Like I said Elon is an optimistic guy :wink: .
    #10 Elon probably doesn't want to make the same mistake as he did on the MX when he unveiled it, it had many of the same characteristics of the MS but now a lot of the design is changed like the nose. This doesn't mean the Model 3 is behind schedule, certain design elements still need to be figured out.
    #11 Don't know when he said this.
    #12 I've heard reports of this too but in the end this doesn't seem very significant to Teslas overall goal.
    #13 We really don't know if the motors are being pushed over their limits from aggressive drivers or if they are defective, if they are i'm sure Tesla is working on or has already implemented a fix.
    #14 I believe they get their seats from another provider (correct me if i'm wrong) so it's not entirely their fault... oh and did I mention that Elon is optimistic?
    #15 Not sure when he said that.
    #16 The supercharger roll out has been on point so far, I think they made a decision to focus resources on other projects rather than put superchargers in locations that wouldn't get a lot of use.
    #17 Sure but that's usually three cars or more, and Elon isn't lying about the charging rates.
    #18 this was an idea that Elon had but when implemented never saw the use he expected and wasn't worth the money to build one at every supercharger.
    #19 What has this thread turned into? I expected everyone to be super eXcited when I posted this but apparently people have a beef with Elon, besides Tesla has been fairly on point with estimating the production rate of their cars and so i'm confident in Teslas ability to ramp production.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I absolutely 100% agree with you, Elon has a good excuse to make mistakes seeing that he runs two multi-billion dollar companies and both of them are extremely ambitious.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    Red Sage
    I concur. That's why I used my IGNORE button for a certain poster... He could have simply started his own, separate, rant thread instead of attempting to 'correct' those of us who happen to be Kool-Aid Drinking, Over-the-Top Optimistic, Tesla Motors Certified Apologist Fanboys. Y'know, like ME. ;-)

    Kudos to those of you who attempted to address every line of his lengthy list of aggressive disgust with Elon Musk. I believe I already did so, months ago, in the Model X forum at the Tesla Motors website. I have to watch my blood pressure and stuff, so its best I don't reply to him directly anymore. Ever.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    CTemp222
    Thank you I was about to check outside for a mob.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    30seconds
    Awesome. So how about we switch to all those EVs that Audi claimed would be out by now? Or the VW clean diesels? How about that Cadillac with Autopilot? Or the Hydrogen future that Toyota is promising? Hyundai gas mileage? That awesome i8 which is more expensive, slower, smaller and less efficient than the Model S? Buy the electric Fiat? The one the CEO pleads that you don't actually buy? Oh wait, why don't you opt for the Mercedes with over the air upgrades?

    The company is pushing the boundaries of the whole industry. Sometimes it takes longer and is harder that they expect. This is called innovation.

    Just wait for your perfect Lexus EV. I'm sure it will be here in about 10 years.
  • Feb 6, 2016
    CTemp222
    Well I don't even know where the ignore button is :confused:

    - - - Updated - - -

    Let-s-Drink-To-That.jpg
  • Feb 6, 2016
    Red Sage
    I was being rather facetious, but here are the instructions for this site:

    Click on the name of someone whose posting history you find offensive.

    Choose the option to 'View Profile'.

    Click the link that reads 'Add to Ignore List' that appears on the left.

    You will be taken to a confirmation screen that asks "Are you sure you want to add [SOME DUDE] to your ignore list?"

    Choose the YES button that appears on the right.

    Done!
    ?
  • Feb 6, 2016
    CTemp222
    Well it's good that I now know that in case some day I need to worry about my blood pressure :wink:
  • Feb 7, 2016
    CarlK
    He always give a timeline as he sees how HE could do it but unfortunately this is a complex endeavor that needs many others to meet the same very optimistic schedule. There are tens if not hundreds of suppliers and their subcontractors. Not everyone shares his enthusiasm and is able or willing to work as hard as he does. If you read the early days SpaceX history his biggest challenge was to push suppliers to his aggressive and sometimes impossible schedule which ended up they are doing many or most of parts in house themselves. Exactly same things are happenning now such as the seat component that Tesla said they are making in house now after long delay due to supplier issues.

    I also agree with you that I have great faith in Tesla's long term success. Elon has achieved everything he said he would do and more albeit at a delayed schedule. A little set back on meeting an aggressive schedule at this point would not hurt the company that much, other than the short term stock price which I couldn't care less, long as it maintains the large lead over competitors which they still do at this point. Consumers and the market will forget everything in another few months when people start to see what kind of amazing new cars are flowing out of the factory in large volumes.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    WarpedOne
    A BIG thank you!

    - - - Updated - - -

    There are only two facts in this world: taxes and death.
    Everything else is an opinion pulled out of behind, smelling accordingly.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    schonelucht
    Exactly! It wasn't like they introduced a new top of the line performance model or changed that battery capacity on like all of their models in that time frame, right?
  • Feb 7, 2016
    forumman83
    It's quite clear that Doctor is short Tesla stock.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    Matias
    So?
  • Feb 7, 2016
    elguapo
    Patience. All we can do is wait. If people don't like it, they can vote with their money. It seems, rather, that most people just want to vent and throw their toys around, but few are leaving the sandbox.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    JRP3
    Some of your "facts" were proven to be wrong, one might say you made them up, or lied....
  • Feb 7, 2016
    Red Sage
    I look at it this way... If Tesla Motors finishes Q1 2016 at 1,000 units of Model X per week... And only 60% of those reach US Customers... That means the Model X will sell over 21,600 units here this year. That will be enough beat Volvo XC90, Porsche Cayenne, and AUDI Q7 in annual sales here. It will approach Mercedes-Benz GLS-Class sales, and finish no less than second place in class. Personally, I would not be surprised if 80% of Model X buyers are US Customers this calendar year.

    +42! A perfect analogy.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    Roamer
    I know I just can't wait until Tesla becomes a big, smart and trustworthy car manufacturer.

    You know .......like......GM.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    CarlK
    Isn't VW an even bigger, smarter and more trustworthy company?
  • Feb 7, 2016
    forumman83
    So his views are biased and skewed towards the negative.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    hockeythug
    What he says may sometime take longer to come to fruition but I have stopped doubting the guy.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    Cosmacelf
    @dotor, your #12 gigafactory employment numbers isn't correct. Tesla is achieving the legal requirements for the tax abatements. What they aren't hitting are numbers that the local governments put out in press releases. It was the politicians that put out the rosier numbers, but Tesla never agreed to those numbers. So #12 was politician exaggerations, not Elon.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    Matias
    What if one is long? Does that also make views biased?
  • Feb 7, 2016
    ohmman
    Exactly.

    Consider the source, but address the claims.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    hockeythug
    The numbers the local government are trying to compare were estimates for a $11billion investment. As Tesla and Panasonic are not even close to that so obviously they will be lower at this time.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    aesculus
    Exactly. Just switch negative to positive and this statement applies to 99% of the posts in this thread.

    I don't have a problem with anyone expressing their opinions and even throwing out some hazy facts. I am not going to base any action on anyone's words but it will make me investigate the positives and negatives more closely, where I might not have, had neither posts been exposed to me.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    Marcos
    Heh, the REASON I love Tesla is because of the over-design. If I wanted the same-ol', there are plenty of other options. And if you are buying any car as an investment, you are doomed to perpetual disappointment. I buy my cars to be driven, and if Tesla wants to upgrade the tech, totally awesome with me, especially since I'll end up benefiting from those upgrades.

    I like to be part of the future. And sometimes, when you push hard, you get burned a little. It'll matter little in the long run. And if Tesla does eventually implode, it'll be because Musk shot for the moon, not because of whatever the hell it is they are doing at Yahoo or HP today. Personally, I'm okay with that.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    CarlK
    The difference is not between longs and shorts but between investors and traders. Investors only care about long term success of a company while traders only care about short term stock movement and they do manipulate the market to their benefit. Traders can be either long or short but you almost never see a short who is an investor.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    CTemp222
    Well ya know when SpaceX makes it to mars i'd bet that the rover is built by Tesla :wink:.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    JRP3
    Only if they say things that are not true, like doctor did.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    CTemp222
    Well I would say that a long perspective will be more accurate because Tesla is trying to shift the norm from gasoline to electric, something that will take decades to do. If your on the short side you're only looking one maybe two years out max. It also has to do if you believe in Elon Musk, he gets things done that nobody else is willing to do. I don't really care if his cars have a little less range than he said they would or if the production ramp of the X isn't as fast as he said it would be, all this stuff are short term problems that barely affect Teslas long term goal.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    ohmman
    I don't know what it matters if someone is short or long. If they're stating factual information, it's factual. If they're making things up, it's false. Looking at the source and their bias helps you to critically evaluate their statements, but it's the statements that need to be reviewed, not the person.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    CTemp222
    Yea I agree with that i'm just saying that to look at Tesla in the short term is a mistake.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    Blastphemy
    Depends on how you interpret that statement. While the gigafactory isn�t meeting original projections, it is on track to meet the legal requirements of Tesla's tax incentive package and is actively hiring permanent employees.

    See Gigafactory Ahead Of Schedule, Behind On Job Creation? Spoiler: Nope! | CleanTechnica

    And I hope the next company you criticize bans you from buying their products as well. Duh. What a childish statement (and childish reaction by Elon).

    dortor4ev makes some good points. Too bad some people on this forum are not objective nor willing to admit things aren't perfect at Tesla.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    30seconds
    The only thing that matters with the GF is battery production schedule. Ahead on construction / behind on jobs vs. original schedule has basically ZERO to do with anything of importance
  • Feb 7, 2016
    dhanson865
    his user name contains dortor not doctor again that third character is a R not a C and thus he doesn't get the doctor name.

    I doubt he is from Gallifrey either way.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    CarlK
    True but short traders do rely on manipulating the market for their gain and they do tend to lie when money is involved. I won't take what they say at the face value the same as I do not give a whole life insurance or used car salesperson the benefit of doubt. Motivation is a very useful tool for one to screen the information and make a judgement in either internet or courtroom trails.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    ankitmishra
    It's very hard to avoid bias. Some are shorts, some are longs, some are fanboys and some are car buyers. The car buyers don't care about anything else except that they get the best deal for there money. Tesla is just like any other car maker for them. That's why we here criticisms like "Too many upgrades depreciated my car". It's a great achievement for Tesla that they have attracted them. But hey, some people might be at the level that they really aren't biased. I sure don't know everything.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    Blastphemy
    Except that Tesla guaranteed a certain number of jobs would created on a clearly defined schedule laid out in the tax incentive package granted by Nevada, so yes - behind on jobs vs. original schedule actually matters quite a bit.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    Red Sage
    Correct. What raises my ire is that some will call Elon Musk a liar, submit a truncated excerpt of an actual quote as proof, but mysteriously leave out the continuous stream of qualifiers he used when making the statement. I've noticed that as a former programmer, Elon has a tendency to use the terms such as IF, AND, OR, THEN, ELSE, WHILE, and whatnot rather often, and the press overlooks them entirely. There is what he said, and there is what was meant, and that isn't always the same thing. Hence, why someone coined the term 'out of context'.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    30seconds
    And tesla is not behind the schedule of guaranteed certain number of jobs they promised

    ----

    My bad, they were 22 jobs short of what they projected. Clearly a disaster of biblical proportions.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    Red Sage
    What I am willing to admit, as a Tesla Motors Certified Apologist Fanboy, is that achieving perfection is not as important as striving for it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    +42! for mentioning the Time Lord's home world. Bonus points if you mention Rassilon in the future!
  • Feb 7, 2016
    Drivin
    No.

    You can be a successful trader as a long or a short without relying "on manipulating the market" (or other potentially illegal activities).

    There is nothing nobel to being long and nothing evil in being short. They are only betting on which way the stock will move.

    Remember, except for during stock issuances, none of the money from longs or shorts go to the company - it is just money moving from one investor to another.

    It is smart to be skeptical of what a short says, just as it is smart to be skeptical of what a long says, or a fan of the company says of the product.
  • Feb 7, 2016
    AlMc
    You are making too much sense. I might have to give you out some 'rep'. Keep posting as a moderate voice. Thanks
  • Feb 7, 2016
    quartzav



    I mentioned earlier in this thread. While it is true what you said about how you interpreted the data, it is equally important you don't cherry-pick your data to make an embellishment in accusations that intended to highlight Elon�s flamboyant personality flaws. (In this case I mean the second poster in this tread) Please use the correct projection data to determine if this company is meeting its goal. In over 10 pages of this thread, the incorrect assumption that Tesla grossly overestimated the job creation number got repeated a lot more than the reality that Tesla is behind "their" projection by 22 jobs or 9 %. Perhaps you also got swayed by the mantra "A lie told often enough becomes the truth"?




    It is important you look at the "job creation projection from Tesla" that puts it around 9% behind their target. Again, that is not "grossly over estimated" from Tesla's projection as the second poster in this tread trying to make it as a fact.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    CarlK
    I don't think you get the point. There is a great difference between longs, which tend to be the investor type, and shorts, which tend to be the trader type. Long investors, think Warran Buffet or Peter Lynch, will hold onto stocks for a long time. They don't care about short term set back and could even use the opportunity to acquire more shares if they are confident of the company. On the other hand the worst nightmere for a short trader is margin call when stock price makes a significant upward movement. They will do anything, sometimes even pretty silly things, to prevent that to happen. Like I said the motivation between the two types can be very different. Both can be wrong but long investors have little incentive to manipulate when short term variation is not of their concerns.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    Drivin
    I understand your points and I disagree.
    1. You said that shorts rely on manipulating the market. That is wrong. If a person is unethical they will try and manipulate the market regardless of whether they are long or short a stock.
    2. You are confusing being a "long" with being a "buy and hold investor". Being "long" just means that you own the stock, it says nothing about your investment strategy.
    http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100314/whats-difference-between-long-and-short-position-market.asp

    If most longs were buy and hold investors, stocks would not have 20%+ declines in short periods of time.

    3.


    Sure. Just like a person who is bullish on the company may bet on the stock going up by buying options - and their worse nightmare is for a significant downward movement. "They will do anything, sometimes even pretty silly things, to prevent that to happen."
  • Feb 8, 2016
    ohmman
    I agree with Drivin. Also, don't forget that the vast majority of shares are being traded algorithmically. The algorithms don't have a bias or spread FUD, and they will snatch up dips and sell peaks as necessary. I built them and for more than a decade, they took long and short positions. I had no sentiment about the companies I traded, and neither did my algorithms.

    As a human trader, there are valid reasons for being short - you have good reason to believe a company is overvalued, or that there are macro conditions that are likely to affect certain segments more dramatically. These don't mean you're unethical.

    I feel there's a reason people equate short and unethical, though. Short implies pessimism - not always about the company, but certainly about the valuation. Long implies optimism across the board. Nobody likes a pessimist, especially when they're right.

    And as a last thought, I think "real" shorts, the ones who have positions that matter, don't give a damn about spreading FUD or posting on message boards, because they know that isn't going to make a dent in an issue with a ~ $20B market cap and 120MM+ outstanding shares.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    Drivin
    I agree.
    To add to that, being short implies to some people that they aren't "supporting" the company by people who don't seem to fully understand that when you buy stock the money doesn't go to the company. LOL
  • Feb 8, 2016
    wannamodels
    Agreed, if folks constantly rant about their model s they should give/sell it to someone who wants one. And if they want CEO's to stop making promises about future products they need to go live in a hole in the ground...this rant is silly...go back to a crappy bmw or mbz ice car, puh-lease...
  • Feb 8, 2016
    stopcrazypp
    I think this goes to the definition of "real shorts" and "real longs".

    However, for the purposes of this forum the "real shorts" that we interact with are the ones who feel the need to post here. If they don't post here, they don't "exist" here. And more often than not they like to spread FUD, unsubstantiated negative rumors, or make mountains out of molehills for any negative issue. This is because they have the financial incentive to do so. It may not go to the point of stock manipulation, but it permeates into any comment they make despite how they may like to say otherwise (more often than not they like to claim they have an objective voice).

    I consider "real longs" to be the ones who buy more shares when the stock drops. These people don't care about short term fluctuations of the stock (other than the ability to get more shares), but rather about the long term success of the company. They also have financial incentive for the stock to do well, but on a much longer time scale than a short. So they can sit back and look at the big picture instead.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    Drivin
    Oh good, we are now creating new phrases! How about "pseudo real longs" and "fake longs" and "medium longs""

  • Feb 8, 2016
    Nototrader
  • Feb 8, 2016
    CTemp222
  • Feb 8, 2016
    stopcrazypp
    The difference is the longs I describe don't typically claim they are trying to be objective. They are very clear that they are fans and optimists. Also, they don't have a big incentive to spread hype (those are the regular traders who want to sell high in a relatively short time scale). In fact, they are happy to see short term drops so they can increase their position.

    I will just say that practically all the people I have seen that come here and claim they are an "objective short" fail to hold up that persona for very long. The negativity permeates very quickly.

    In case it is not clear, I have no position in any stock at the moment (or in the past).
  • Feb 8, 2016
    Drivin
    I contributed too much to this long/short discussion already...but here is my motivation for doing so.

    I think it is great for people to discuss the positives as well as the negatives of any product. I wish people wouldn't automatically assume a negative comment is based on a desire to manipulate the market to benefit from a short position.

    Understanding negative things about a car, the ownership experience, service, etc is a valuable thing.

    Yes, of course, there are overly petty negative comments, just like there are overly petty positive statements, but anyone successful enough to own a car of this cost, should be smart enough to put those in context.

    Disclosure: I hold no direct positions in TSLA at this point, although probably have indirect positions via mutual funds.

    Lastly, if you believe that someone could financially benefit from a petty negative comment on a forum because of a short position, PM me. I am willing to sell you my upgrade concept for a 70D that gets you 550miles/charge, has lighted vanity mirrors and coat hangers ;)
  • Feb 8, 2016
    Electricfan
    Is there any way to find out how many people are ignoring you? Not you, me. I mean yourself. Not yourself, myself. You know what I mean.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    CarlK
    The reason is shorts tend to be traders as opposed to investors are almost always longs. Traders are more sensitive to short term market movement. Only traders can benefit form manipulation of short term movement and believe me they will take every opportunity they have to do that. The argument that it dose not work so people will not try it is just like saying crime does not pay so there will be no crimes. They are always desperate or just dumb criminals regardless of if it does or does not pay.


    Nay, only gamblers buy short expiration options. No real investor would ever do that. Short by definition is always highly leveraged very much like short expiration options if not worse.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    stopcrazypp
    You put it more eloquently than I could have. The trader vs investor description perfectly separates the "real longs" I was talking about.

    And I agree with your latter point too. In the investor subforum, it is easy to find a recent locked thread that is one such example (don't want to link it). There is a long history of shorts coming here to TMC to try. The argument that "it does not work" does not stop them from trying.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    ohmman
    I worked in the industry for years. Your argument is that traders will go to any length to profit. This is grossly misrepresenting the majority of traders, who care more about the technical side of things. In 15 years of being exposed to trading floors, I never once heard someone say, "let's go hit the message boards." Everyone is concerned more about support levels, volume, trade size, and other things that actually matter.

    I do think I understand what you're trying to say, though. Perhaps it's this: if someone is saying bad things, they might be expressing their negative bias about the company, which is also represented by their negative holdings in the stock. So yes, negative bias in posts could be correlated with sell side holdings in the stock. Just as overly positive bias is often correlated with long holdings in the stock.

    The short term TSLA movements thread is full of this stuff on both sides. I don't think the negative people are influencing the market, and I don't think the positive ones are either. What I think is their posts reflect their overall sentiment, and their holdings do the same. Correlation, not causation.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    Drivin
    1. No, that is NOT the definition of a short. Please stop making things up. Some short positions are highly leveraged, some don't.
    2. As for no real investors by short expiration options, I guess with that definition, Warren Buffet is not a "real investor".






    LOL.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    CTemp222
    Thank you!

    Here is the real definition of short: sell (stocks or other securities or commodities) in advance of acquiring them, with the aim of making a profit when the price falls.

    Now that that's out of the way maybe we can go back to the topic of this thread?
    I believe that Tesla will be able to produce 1,000 X's per week (and S's) by the second quarter. Once all the kinks are worked out in production line and they're having defect rates of >1% (or around that of the Model S) they can easily scale production. People have already reported that X's coming from Fremont have less defects with the cars. This would mean that yearly production rate would be around 104,000 units by second quarter.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    pvogel
    I hope you mean <1% not >1%
  • Feb 8, 2016
    AlMc
    The 104,000 run rate would be great but it does exceed EM's estimate of an average of 1600-1800/week. Even if you take the higher end AND work 52 weeks that works out to 93,600 if my napkin math is correct.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    CTemp222
    Yes I meant less than :rolleyes:

    - - - Updated - - -

    That might be the average of the entire year, because I wasn't saying that they will produce 104,000 cars this year but when they get to second quarter they will theoretically be able to do 104,000 cars at that point in time. So I bet that Elon was saying that the average rate of production for this year is 1600-1800 depending on the ramp.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    Nototrader
    I'm going to get blasted for this, but as a new person to these forums and to tesla, I find most of the tesla customers on this forum to be extremely protective of the brand....in a strange way. Many (not all) of the people here are only interested in protecting the brand in an almost cult-like way. I, myself, got blasted for making a comment that I thought q1 sales would be terrible because of how long it is taking tesla to deliver this first batch of X cars. I was told that I'm making the comment because I want to manipulate people into thinking there is limited supply so I can scare someone into buying the X I put up for sale for a huge markup.

    Also, the first time someone posted their list of numerous issues with their new X, they were encouraged to keep it to themselves so that they wouldn't influence other people or affect the brand. To me it seems some of those people are being hypocrites and are really long the stock and are scared of someone being honest in a negative way so the company doesn't look bad. I for one enjoy reading all the positives and all the negatives as long as they are true and legit. In my mind, that is what this forum should be.

    And, btw, as someone who used to day trade for a living, I know for a fact that nobody on this forum can say anything that will really affect the overall movement of the stock. People aren't stupid and unless somebody is making up huge lies in a big way on a large scale, a big volume stock like tesla will not be affected by comments here.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    ModelXBoy

    People here are very loyal to the brand of Tesla including myself and most of us believe Tesla and Elon Must have created a masterpiece that no other manufacture can even dream of doing. To be fair in my opinion there are so many good things to say about Tesla and how brilliant and innovative Elon Musk is. Nothing is perfect including Tesla. But nothing exists without flaws, Tesla does need to better inform customer about possible delays and keep a better communication with more precise information with their clients. There won't be that many people complaining about their car if sufficient information is giving. After all Tesla is just a start up company and should treat as such. Eventually they will find a way to better their manufacturing process and up their communication with their customers.
  • Feb 8, 2016
    AlMc
    How many years does a company have to be in business to be considered out of the 'start up' category?
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