Feb 8, 2016
CTemp222 Which thread was this?
And I think a lot of people may seem overly protective of Tesla because for years people have tried to deface the company (like when the NYT reviewer John Broder rain out of power [seemingly on purpose]) Tesla gets NYT apology for Model S review: Musk approves - SlashGear .Or when that Tesla on fire went viral and whenever we tried to talk to regular people about Tesla they always brought that up. Or when Fisker stole design information from Tesla Tesla Sues Fisker Designers In Worlds Most Expensive Girl Fight .
People are protective of things they love, this is a unique company and when people are purposely trying to damage Tesla's reputation, we supporters of Tesla and the electric revolution have to defend this unique company.�
Feb 8, 2016
AlMc Protecting the brand and embracing the mission statement are one thing. However, some people attack the messenger instead of refuting the message. This has happened to many people on this and the TM forum (and I am sure on many other forums). Problem: Some of these people have value to add to a discussion and are drowned out/*shouted down*.�
Feb 8, 2016
CTemp222 Good question, I would say as long as it's in the growth phase. Tesla definitely will not be called a startup when they start giving out dividends.�
Feb 8, 2016
ModelXBoy Well, if you look a Toyota, GM etc, those companies existed half century ago. On top of that non of them are creating something innovative for years. I think Tesla just turned 10 years and they not even having a product refresh yet. On top of that, Tesla is building such a complicated car and has absolutely no experience in doing so. There will be flaws, there will be delays, and there will be complaints. This is just how start up company works, they run, hit a wall and turn around and run again with a big ass bandage on their head. Once Tesla nailed out the kinks and speed up their production, customers will be happy again. I am no way defending Tesla, just stating the facts. Their customer service is one of the best i have experience, but the information provided is the most useless information also.�
Feb 8, 2016
AlMc So. Is Amazon a 'start up'?
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OK. So in 10 more years? 50 years? Model3 out?�
Feb 8, 2016
CarlK �
Feb 8, 2016
CTemp222 Yes this is more of a problem that prevails the entire internet It is much more appealing to tell the person to shut up or something of that nature because it's just a lot easier.
Trying to reason with people takes a lot of patience on the internet, something that comes in short supply.
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According to Forbes yes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2014/10/24/amazon-is-a-publicly-traded-startup-get-over-it/#5eb26162746c�
Feb 8, 2016
ModelXBoy Totally understand your frustration. I am in the same boat. Calling Tesla and DS everyday hoping to find out some useful information. Disappointed with their answer each time. This forum is what kept me patient. Tesla needs better communication, better their logistics, better their suppliers and hire someone like "Tim Cook" to Steven Job to handle their manufacturing and supply chain. Take some pressure of Elon as well. Tesla will be much better. I really don't think Tesla can be GM or Toyota anytime in the future, but their innovations will keep Tesla very desirable.�
Feb 8, 2016
AlMc So, I was intrigued by my own question about 'what is a start up' and looked to the internet for help. Seems everyone agrees that there is no universally accepted definition.
The reason I ask is that people usually use that term to give TM/EM a pass on some of the missed timelines or problems with ramping/production. I am just curious as to how long we should give TM/EM a pass?�
Feb 8, 2016
CTemp222 I would say we shouldn't just let him get away with missed timelines without some repercussions, but we should definitely give him the benefit of the doubt. We should keep giving him the benefit of the doubt until negative connotations about electric cars are no more, this will require GM, Toyota, and other large car manufacturers to mass produce electric cars. Remember Elon is swimming against the flow.�
Feb 8, 2016
ohmman Calling Tesla a startup was a way to excuse missteps. Obviously nobody would accept that from Amazon. I think AlMc's point was that using the "startup" moniker is not a great excuse at this point - and I fully agree. It is repeated frequently around here.
There is rarely a good "dismiss it" excuse for a 10-year old company to make the kind of communication and timeframe errors that Tesla has made. We can celebrate the amazing achievements of the company while providing valid criticism on their weaknesses. Ignoring one because of the other makes little sense to me.�
Feb 8, 2016
CTemp222 Well I think that Tesla's excuse isn't because they're a startup, but because they're going against the norm, there is a lot of public educating to do and there is obviously push back from entrenched interests.�
Feb 8, 2016
dc_h This start up conversation is a great discussion. Tesla is acting like a startup, not managing their message. Elon talking about e-planes and hyperloop, but no one on point to discuss daily or quarterly operations and issues that have gone public. The company can't just be his baby anymore. He needs someone to communicate when there are big PR issues and that person may not report to him but they have to have access to Elon. They also need a COO, which they may have, but I am not aware of someone in this formal role as a peer or direct to the CEO or CFO. JB may be that guy, but it seems like they need him focused on Energy, which is critical to making the Model 3 profitable. They also don't show Jason Wheeler on the investor relations page under management.
Bill Gates in talking about scaling up Microsoft said he always thought about how he could manage 10 times the people and being 10 times as big. That means structure and controls. It may slow some things down, but it will avoid going off the rails or being perceived as having gone of the rails.
�
Feb 8, 2016
CTemp222 I think that Tesla does have a lot of industries that it could conquer, they could supply batteries for electric planes (or even boats?). And for every other mode of transportation. However I think they need to focus on cars and stationary storage for now.�
Feb 8, 2016
ankitmishra Tesla is still a start up. The problem here is that people keep on judging Tesla with the same definitions as of a normal average company. What it is doing is extraordinary challenging. If people are going to treat Tesla just like any other automaker, they will always be confused about the views of people supporting it. It's much bigger than a car company, that's why people love it. Have people seen the Spacex landing video? Have they seen people cheering with their hearts out for a company like that? Tesla is also same.�
Feb 8, 2016
Drivin �
Feb 8, 2016
stopcrazypp Trying to define "startup" is beside the point. I think the real problem is a lot of people judge Tesla with the same metrics as other car companies (the youngest of which are multi-decades old). The difference is none of those car companies have growth rates measured in tens (they are very lucky to hit double digits even looking seasonally and almost never when looking at a fiscal year). Applying the same metrics as those companies simply does not work.
Basically, Tesla may or may not be a "startup" any longer, but it certainly isn't a company going at roughly steady state as practically all other car companies.�
Feb 8, 2016
AlMc The basic question boils down to: When do we stop giving TM/EM a 'pass' on missing self imposed deadlines and poor communication? Yesterday? Tomorrow? If there are problems with model3 timelines?�
Feb 8, 2016
ankitmishra There wont be any problems with 3. The initial Model wont have awesome innovations.�
Feb 8, 2016
AlMc And how do you know that since we are probably almost 2 years away from production? Yes, it will have fewer innovations but will it be on time and in the price point that was predicted?�
Feb 8, 2016
ModelXBoy By the time Model 3 gets produced, giga factory should be open in full force. The new factory is capable of producing 500,000 cars a year. There might be more issues when they mass produce a car at that scale still. People will continue to give Tesla the "pass" as long as Tesla is innovating not like other auto makers. Innovation > occasional mess up. Tesla will never be problem free because they are making new things every single time. Each challenge is new to Tesla. Once they conquer the challenge, they will move on to next innovation with all new challenges. So there will be never ending problems and complains as well as innovation.�
Feb 8, 2016
AlMc Here is the problem. Most investors won't give TM/EM a 'pass' forever. The stock is getting hammered...some of it, IMO, because of failures in self imposed timelines/execution. If they want to continue to innovate that will require money. This money will come from sales supplemented by borrowed money or issuance of more shares of stock. So, it is much easier to obtain money when your stock price is rising (or at least stable) than when it is dropping and you are having a crisis in confidence because of failure to execute.�
Feb 8, 2016
ohmman ^^ This. Look up what happens to companies during "down rounds". It's more critical during early private funding rounds, but it applies as well to publicly traded companies in times before their revenues are enough to fund their goals.�
Feb 8, 2016
ModelXBoy This is why TM/EM must come out and talk something to maintain confidence. Their mess ups will lessen in the future because their inability to achieve their own goal has become a routine. You will probably see a improvement over their logistics and manufacture process in the next 6 month.�
Feb 8, 2016
ankitmishra I just posted this in TM forums: Tesla can easily raise about 1 billion dollars from Model 3 reservations. They should take $20000 for Signatures reservation and should give preference to loaded top end 3 for initial deliveries. In this way, maybe 25000 signatures and 25000 loaded 3 in the beginning will give Tesla huge amount of money. Also, the sales of Model S have been increasing and add to that the positive feedback from the initial owners of X. Maybe 90000 sales in 2016 and 150000 in 2017 (not including 3).�
Feb 8, 2016
AlMc I am impressed by your optimism and I hope you are correct. You are hoping they get these things fixed but neither you or I *know* they will.
History (facts, not hope) has shown they have problems with these things. This history is leading to uncertainty by investors and the declining stock price.�
Feb 8, 2016
ankitmishra Since we are cheering those with the same views as us here, I will cheer you. Nicely said.
Hmmm, this comment from me wasn't required, apologies.�
Feb 8, 2016
dhanson865 I'd say it isn't about years, its about growth rate. So long as they are talking about doubling the sales per year for several years to come it's still a growth company. When sales growth slows to less than 50% or 33% a year maybe?�
Feb 8, 2016
ModelXBoy Here is the thing. There is nothing we can do because Tesla is making such a desirable electronic device on wheel. What we can do is convince ourself hey, we have hope in this man!�
Feb 8, 2016
AlMc Nothing wrong with hope. I hope you are correct. Over and out.:wink:�
Feb 8, 2016
ankitmishra I don't know that, but I am extremely positive about it. Tesla of 2017 might be already churning 150000 cars before 3 is launched. Again, just a guess.�
Feb 8, 2016
Electricfan There are a few of us that share your view here. I think we're outnumbered though.�
Feb 8, 2016
roblab I like to hear of what works, but listing off all the defects, often some of which are purely opinion, doesn't help anything. Maybe helps knock sales, I don't know. That sounds like an interesting goal.
To say that the doors aren't aligned, well, that's a service center visit. It gets fixed. You (not YOU personally) aren't going to get Tesla to pump out cars to beat the band and not have some glitches. To claim that Elon lied, well that doesn't do anything. That just means that someone might be happier with a Subaru.
But there is nothing that compares with the electric drive system that Tesla has, or its charge network, or its dreams of building up and out. For some of us, we've been around. We've had the misaligned doors, the switches that didn't work, the latch that broke, the inverter that failed in the desert. Hey, they got fixed. The big bad things that matter, that would make me buy another car aren't there at all.
That's my problem. If someone is complaining, make it legitimate, about something that Tesla can fix, realistically. Saying that you don't think you should have to wait 2 months to get your car, and that Tesla needs to get its act together -- well, you get the picture.
I think anyone here is able to read the automotive reviews to find out true weaknesses. Beyond that, you should be comparing electric drive to ICE, and there is no comparison.�
Feb 8, 2016
ohmman Tesla can fix their corporate communications and they can certainly improve expectation management. Those are the areas I'd like to see them improve. Not for me personally, I'm an owner and about to be a Tesla-only vehicle family, but for their future. I haven't complained about the build of my MS - I love it despite what some would call "shortcomings". But when Tesla promises ranger or valet service, then pulls it from existing owners.. I personally don't think that's the way to run a business. Doesn't affect me, but I care about Tesla and I empathize with those left in a difficult situation.
Tesla can fix their customer facing information stream. There is a large collection of quality software that aids with this. You can give every customer the same message, whether they're in New York, Minnesota, or California. This is a solved problem in industry. When people purchasing an MX are told falsely that the falcon wing doors and the front door might intersect and cause damage, that's an internal information failure. It's solvable, and it shouldn't ever occur.
Not all problems show up in automotive magazine reviews.�
Feb 8, 2016
Red Sage Uhm... Who's on first?
;-)
I don't know. My standard internet forum disclaimer is that I recommend people ignore me. After all, I'm just some guy on the internet. What do I know?
Oh, wait... Third base!
�
Feb 8, 2016
ankitmishra Tesla is concentrating on what's most important as of now. And that is to ramp up X with brilliant quality. Everything else comes after that. There isnt any confusion about S features as now.�
Feb 9, 2016
stopcrazypp "We" won't stop until there is no longer a line of customers buying their products. At the moment missing deadlines and poor communication seems to have minimal impact on demand. Tesla is still continually coming out with new product and improving the old one and it seems to be keeping the flow of customers going.
Missing a deadline isn't fatal. Coming out with a car that attracts customers is far more important. I think people have confidence that even if Tesla is late, they can come out with a more compelling car than all other automakers.�
Feb 9, 2016
CTemp222 I have to agree, Elon doesn't wan't to compromise design. Even if that means missing deadlines, having a compelling product is way more important. However the stock market sure doesn't like him missing deadlines.�
Feb 9, 2016
Red Sage +42! The Ultimate Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything about 'How Can You Be Sure the Sky Isn't Falling at Tesla Motors?'�
Feb 9, 2016
ohmman ^ False dichotomy. These things aren't exclusive.�
Feb 9, 2016
Red Sage Hunh? Well... I supposed that missing a deadline could be fatal... If you work for the Yakuza.�
Feb 9, 2016
stopcrazypp Most definitely not exclusive (I am assuming you are talking about deadlines vs compelling car) but definitely related. A lot of Tesla's delays are because Elon's insistence on features on the car (Model X doors and windshield being the most recent examples).�
Feb 9, 2016
CarlK I always say if Elon has one fault that would be he does not have the ability to make anything that is merely good. That's a fault in common people's eyes but the paid off would be tremendous when he succeded. He wanted to make Paypal a world dominate internet financial company but investors balked because they want to turn a fast profit. Now a lot of people think there were actually that opportunity because it was so ahead of everyone else and Paypal could have been a much bigger company than it is today if they went along.�
Feb 9, 2016
1208 He's got to learn to bodge.:biggrin:�
Feb 9, 2016
ohmman I think we all want the same thing for Tesla. Personally I prefer to look critically (not to be confused with pessimistically) at the business and be as honest as possible. Using logical fallacies to give myself a "feel good" impression doesn't work for me. I've only encountered one business that thrives on an uncritical customer base - religion.
Since mass appears to be in session, I'll bow out.�
Feb 9, 2016
ankitmishra This is the source of the difference of opinion that people are having over Tesla. In order to create a great product, be it a great car, movie, music, scientific discovery etc etc require extraordinary efforts. When someone us trying to create something great and original, they come across unforeseen circumstances, time isn't in their control then. If they worry about time, it will only damage the products quality then. But hey, its my opinion and I maybe wrong.
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When I think about things which also include Tesla, I also tend to be honest. I also tend to rely on logic. Though my logic and knowledge is based on my experiences in my life. It is unfortunate to assume that people from other school of thought are illogical, dishonest or ignoring glaring problems just to feel good. It is also unfortunate to take the analogy of religion to explain someone's disagreement with you. But hey, maybe people supporting Tesla might be wrong, who knows.�
Feb 9, 2016
eloder Well, they are something like 1/50th the age of the next youngest automaker out there.�
Feb 9, 2016
CTemp222 I think in general we're all supporters of Tesla but we just have different expectations from Elon and the company.�
Feb 9, 2016
Marcos I'd say when they no longer need to build core infrastructure, like battery factories and car factories and ... part factories? Once their production infrastructure is in place and they can focus on just building cars, THEN they'll no longer be a startup.
The whole point of the term "startup" is that you don't have any established infrastructure, so you have to build it from scratch. Tesla is certainly still building from scratch.�
Feb 9, 2016
CarlK That is a pretty good definition. A company that kept on going into new territories can also be looked at as a start up no matter how long it's been there or how large it has become.
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Please don't give him the idea. :biggrin:�
Feb 15, 2016
nienco2 ^ too sensible my friend :wink:�
Feb 16, 2016
Dollartile
elon is a great guy, but we just cant beleive everything this man says. haha�
Feb 17, 2016
Blastphemy Starting to think I agree with you, Dollartile. How could Tesla actually be building so many Model X each week when so few are being delivered (or even being seen at the factory)? No new VINs for something like four weeks, cars that went into production in January still in production, and Sigs reservation holders without delivery nor any realistic estimate for such.
"Something is rotten in the state of Denmark" - Hamlet�
Feb 18, 2016
dhanson865 ???
Just a quick sanity check. The thread title mentions 1000 per week in Q2. Q2 is Arpil-May-June and the 1000 per is the max not the minimum or average.
It's currently February. So he hasn't said squat about Q1 production numbers. You'll have to wait for Q2 earnings call to find out how many they make in Q1.
as in nothing Elon said about Q2 can be considered incorrect or a lie about Q1. It's a different time period.�
Feb 18, 2016
Skotty I think they need to be careful with what they say and what they promise. However, I will also say this -- a missed deadline is remembered for awhile, a poor product is remembered forever. If Yugo had missed a bunch of deadlines to revise their product into something of quality, would anyone today remember the delays?�
Feb 18, 2016
stopcrazypp That was what I was getting at with my previous comments in this thread, even though it was dismissed as a logical fallacy that meeting deadlines and coming out with a good product is not mutually exclusive.�
Feb 18, 2016
Blastphemy If Tesla was producing even 250 cars per week this year, all 1,200 Sigs and the first ~500 Production cars would already be in customers' hands. But there's no evidence of that many deliveries occurring. And the excuse that deliveries are slower than production doesn't hold water, as that would mean exponential levels of undelivered inventory sitting at the factory.
I doubt we'll see a single week in Q2 that achieves 1,000 Model Xs produced (or even comes close).�
Feb 18, 2016
roblab Why would you say that? Have you never heard of ramping up? When I bought my Signature S, they were making less than 50 a week. I got mine 3 months after startup, #8 after engineers and founders. Now it's working on a thousand per week. In the mean time the company has grown, added a new production line (which I have seen), trained hundreds of people, built superchargers (I have seen them, so I know it's true) and started a gigafactory (which I have also seen). Why is it not possible for them to ramp up to 1000 by June 30?
And more importantly, what does it matter to you? For the last four or five years, we have watched Elon telling us what he envisioned. His visions have pretty much always been fulfilled, although it takes more time for the impossible. So are you losing a bet and are grouching? I don't mean just you, but why the upset? Do you complainers have money involved?
There's also a thread here about people getting their production Xs. My daughter has ordered her X, # 12680 or so. I am not crazy enough to think this means it should already be sitting in her driveway, but i believe it will eventually show up.
It's good we have somebody we can now go to who knows more than Elon and is willing to tell the truth so people will not buy this horrible product built by a factory full of liars and loafers.�
Feb 18, 2016
X Fan I'm assuming he's smart enough to realize that there is a cottage industry out there making big bucks going after public company mis-statements.�
Feb 18, 2016
AlMc Well, one of you will right and the other wrong. By June 30th we will know. The 1,000/week of X production is a challenge. Hope it can be met. Regardless of our opinions about whether it can be done is stockholders, purchasers of TM vehicles and people who just want to see the decline of ICE vehicles/helping the planet/our children...TM/EM needs to as he says..make 'a win feel like a win' and hit self imposed deadlines.�
Feb 18, 2016
dhanson865 Check out Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard for a quick and dirty of US only deliveries* or check out shareholder meeting data for worldwide deliveries.
Just keep in mind those are worldwide numbers so if you are in the US and your order number is in the high 4 digit or 5 digit range you aren't just waiting behind US and Canada orders.
*the monthly scorecard URL is permanent but the data updates several times a day around the beginning of the month until all the data is in. You'll have to wait until about March 2nd or March 3rd to see Feb numbers for US deliveries and have a serious idea of what happened in Feb. Even then you'll be looking at data that is several weeks rearward looking, there will always be more cars in transit that have been produced but not delivered. For overseas deliveries those can be batched up in the hundreds or thousands per shipment.�
Feb 18, 2016
Blastphemy Sure, it's possible. But if you look at all my previous predictions, you'll see I've been correct almost every time. I totally called the pitiful deliveries (almost to the exact number) for Q4 2015 while everyone else was promising hundreds of Model X would be delivered each month after the reveal... right up until December 31st when their bubble was finally burst by the facts. Go head and check back here on July 1, 2016 and you'll see I was right again. (I hope I won't be since that affects my own Model X delivery, but unfortunately I'll probably be right just like before.)
From that sales scorecard page to which you link: "Tesla Model X: Like the Model S, Tesla does not itself report Model X sales, so we do our best with all the data at our disposal to estimate monthly results for North America as best we can." So don't believe for one second that sales reported on that page is gospel.�
Feb 19, 2016
s+x+3 Stating something does not mean it is going to happen. I think that either Elon has surrounded himself with Yes people or they are being pressured in not responding negatively to what Elon wants. In either case it is not a healthy relationship between CEO of the company and experts he has employed to give realistic timing to him as he is definitely not an expert when it comes to manufacturing scheduling and production ramping.
Just my two cents worth.
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Was the total number of deliveries for model x in 2015 about 208?�
Feb 19, 2016
dhanson865 and they correct the numbers when Tesla releases quarterly. But if you want US only numbers instead of worldwide numbers that is the site to go to. Do you wonder at all how they estimate the numbers? They do hard work to tally what they do. But go on and cry about your model x delivery numbers that you don't have. I'm sure you can change the font size even larger.
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according to Tesla Fourth Quarter 2015 Shareholder Letter
If you remember 6 were delivered in September so that makes 212 for the year of 2015.
The inaccurate scorecard says 214 so it's off by 2. It might be right that 2 more were delivered at the end of the year or those 2 might be officially 2016 deliveries. We won't know from official sources if Tesla revised the 2015 delivery numbers until Q1 2016 results and then only if we pay attention to 2015 numbers.
But inaccuracies and outdated information are how FUD is made. People feed off the ability to speak inaccuracies because they know it'll take months for the data to come out and by then they'll have new FUD to spread about even newer data that doesn't exist yet.�
Feb 20, 2016
s+x+3 If I recall correctly there was a post by eds in about June or July last year to the effect that total delivery numbers for 2015 would be about 200 model x vehicles and many forum members were not happy with the statement but it appears that eds was correct, when we are typically talking about automotive production of particular model being over 100 k per year being out by few dozen or few hundred is considered to be on the money, more or less.�
Feb 20, 2016
anticitizen13.7 My slightly different recollection is that he said something to the extent of 'less than 100' and that Tesla would be using 'inferior' components. Eds' posts were deleted though, so I can't be sure.�
Feb 20, 2016
ohmman His words were 'severely compromised'.�
Feb 20, 2016
Drivin It is time for optimism folks.
The company said that they are on an exponential growth path (or some wording like that).
I think people will be shocked by how many will be produced in Q1 and Q2!�
Feb 20, 2016
maoing They said so on Jan. 4th and TSLA lost almost 1/3 value before Q4 ER. Be optimistic is one of the fastest way to lose money on TSLA investment in the past a few years.
�
Feb 20, 2016
AlMc I am ready for a 'good' shock to the upside.......just make sure the shock is not because of a miss.:wink:�
Feb 21, 2016
elguapo It would be amazing if they get to 700/week in Q2 - the low end of what Elon said. It's a tough car to make. Q1 will likely disappoint on production given what we are seeing in the forums. They need to get quality right and I am okay with a much slower ramp to get there. Likely pushes stock down in short term, though I think 3/31 reveal of 3 will affect stock more. That said, I have no position in TM stock and never have. I just buy the cars and I want my P90D!�
Feb 21, 2016
Blastphemy Be as optimistic as you want. It won't change the disappointing number of Model X produced in Q1 and Q2.
Exactly. All the empirical evidence demonstrates significantly fewer Model X being produced than all the "optimists" on this forum claim will be made. Same thing happened for Q4 2015, when all these blinded optimists thought every single Signature reservation would be delivered by December 31, 2015. And yet point out that it's nearly the end of February and there are still many Sig customers without their car just as I predicted, and people like dhandson865 refuse to see it and accept the reality. I'd love to be proven wrong, because I want my X sooner rather than later too, but I won't be wrong, just as I wasn't last year.
Now that's just rich! First you say the Scorecard is accurate, then turn around and point out that it isn't! Thank you... that was awesome.
Bully all you want, but it won't change the disappointing number of Model X produced in Q1 and Q2. And I have no idea to what you're referring about font sizes.�
Feb 21, 2016
dhanson865 sarcasm doesn't work for you I see.
I explained why it might not agree and the difference is 2 vehicles in a quarter or less than 1%.
I also documented where the official numbers are. Use them if you don't like the US scorecard from insideevs.�
Feb 21, 2016
stef Another twit from Tesla Motors (1 hour ago) showing more bots at work on MX.
Wonder whether Elon and co are trying to tell us something...�
Feb 21, 2016
dhanson865 fyi, the term twitter uses in the US is "tweet" not "twit".�
Feb 21, 2016
stef Indeed ... But haven't (yet) managed to edit.
Sorry, no offence intended�
Feb 21, 2016
Drivin Wow, nice twit from Tesla!
Look at how fast those bots are assembling - and not a person in sight!!
This means something!
It explains the exponential growth that they talked about.�
Feb 21, 2016
aesculus That depends on who is behind the tweet. :smile:�
Feb 23, 2016
s+x+3 I think that the bottleneck for model X is with supplier base rather than tesla. The main internal production related item that Tezha has is to do with quality of the final assembly and this is something that they control.�
Feb 29, 2016
Darryl I think they discovered some problem parts during production now they are dealing to ge them replaced. I no one for sure is the charging port. They are having a problem with cracks. Another problem is the seal around front windows and around Falcon Wing doors. I agree that much is out of Tesla's control.�
Mar 1, 2016
Blastphemy I am definitely shocked at February's numbers, but since I predicted it I'm not necessarily surprised.
The scorecard estimates 400 Model Xs delivered in February.
I don't think 100 delivered per week is going to help Tesla meet its guidance. If Tesla is truly building more than 250 per month at this point, one really has to wonder where these missing ~600 vehicles have been secreted away for QC and repairs. That's a lot of cars to just have sitting around...
Hopefully these problems plaguing its production will be resolved promptly.�
Mar 1, 2016
socalsam
How can it be out of Teslas control when they designed, sourced and built the car. Its all under Teslas control. But obviously 5 months since the launch, they have had a miserable ramp up. No doubt they will get it fixed but lets call a spade a spade- Its Teslas issue and no one else. Hard to place blame on other suppliers.�
Mar 1, 2016
roblab I'm not disappointed in the production or sales numbers of Model X. Why are you?�
Mar 1, 2016
elguapo No one knows what the real numbers are. I think the disappointment comes from the 250/week +/- they said they were at by 12/31/15 versus delivery rates that are anecdotally much lower. So, it would appear they either a) are no longer making 250/week due to QC issues or b) have found a huge storage area to place all of these Xs that have issues.
Bottom line for me is I don't really care. I want my X ASAP, but I want it with the highest quality possible - equal to any other brand for which I would pay $140,000. If that means I wait another 6 months, so be it.�
Mar 1, 2016
ABCCBA BRAVO!!! Ditto�
Mar 1, 2016
Aljohn I hope Tesla gets this going. Having ~20,000 US reservation holders convert to confirmed orders creates an expectation of Production and Deliveries. Tesla has now invited nearly all the US reservation holders to configure. Presumably to begin Building, Producing and Delivering Model X's. Additionally, they have invited Canadian and European reservation holders to the Design Center to Confirm and Order. I applaud Tesla for "Meet the X Tour"... I said sometime ago, this is what then need to do in light of not having Demo in the Centers. However, this also generates configurations and confirmed orders. So Tesla is doing quite a bit to convert reservations to orders which further creates expectations of Production and Deliveries.... not to mention nearly a $billion in revenue as the reservation deposits are moved on the balance sheet to revenue!
As stated, Tesla "doesn't invest in demand generation" in the traditional sense. However the mystique over the last few years of the Model X, delays, mule testing has created demand. So now there is an obligation to fix what every the delays are..... Good luck to all the people working hard to solve the issues..... Good luck all the vendors delivering parts. That said, It is TESLA's to manage... from the supply chain to out the customer. Hope things are moving better.�
Mar 1, 2016
maoing from insideEVs, total 770 model X delivered in Jan/Feb, plus 208 delivered in Q4. Total 978 so far, it represents 60ish founder X, probably 800ish signature X plus 100is production X. I think it correlates well with the delivery reports in model X forum. Without significant delivery ramp up, I don't see how tesla meet its 2000ish model X delivery target for Q1.
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Mar 1, 2016
30seconds So do you think they are about 150/ week at this point? How long till 300/week?�
Mar 2, 2016
johnnyduval Wow - just in last 24 hours and I can see:
"In Germany, a fully loaded Model X P90D will reportedly cost �172,000 ($187,000)"
Holy crap!!�
Mar 2, 2016
dwebb66 you need to back out the tax/vat and delivery charges to see Tesla's price vs the local taxes.�
Mar 2, 2016
elguapo I think 150/week is optimistic at this exact moment. Again, I think they're taking it super slow while they figure out how to mass produce this beast and making new cars that then need to be fixed/retrofitted, doesn't make economic sense.�
Mar 2, 2016
eye.surgeon I haven't followed the X much but that seems like shockingly low production this far after the launch.�
Mar 3, 2016
Red Sage When a package doesn't reach a Client because the FEDEX truck was snowed in, or flooded, or struck by lightning...? They don't blame FEDEX. They blame YOU. They will tell all their Friends and Family and any random individual they come across all about how they missed a deadline because YOU weren't able to deliver their package to them on time. That is human nature.
So, yeah... Tesla Motors is willing to accept all the flack and criticism, because they know full well that they will be held accountable by their Customers. They also may know that in the end, those Customers are better served by their finding the root of the problems they have detected and fixing them prior to Delivery. There is absolutely no reason to tell the Customer what problems Tesla is experiencing either internally or with Suppliers. Because ultimately, it will be seen as a feeble attempt at an Excuse, even if it is actually an Explanation.
On the other hand, Customers should stop demanding Explanations. Because no matter what is said, the response will be, "That's no Excuse!" anyway. Let's face it, you don't really want an Explanation.
You want your car.�
Mar 4, 2016
goneskiian Yup. Well said Red.�
Mar 4, 2016
jerry33 Right. They'll likely ramp up at the same speed as the S. I recall these same conversations in 2012.
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Mar 4, 2016
umeshunni As someone new to Tesla - what was ramp up speed for the S?�
Mar 4, 2016
dhanson865 I'd like to remind those looking at the insdeEVs scorecard that it is for US deliveries only. Any Model X delivered to Canada, Europe, Asia, Australia, etc won't show up in those numbers.
Tesla may be doing all the California deliveries they can now to get some more money on the Q1 books but don't be surprised when they start shipping out of country and the ModelX US numbers don't jump.
They may have already started the switch to making Model X for other markets in March since it is hard to get new production out the door in only a couple of weeks time.�
Mar 4, 2016
Spidy Those countries could not even configure until very recently.
And if they switched in March that still doesn't change January&February numbers.�
Mar 4, 2016
Darryl @socalsam
Where Tesls makes the majority of what goes into the it doesn't make all. As an example is the Falcon Wing doors were only brought in house last fall when the vender couldn't provide a satisfactory product. When we were at the factory we were provided the % of product made from raw material and what is outsourced but since I don't have the exact figure I won't give a number. I know the touch screens were being made by nVidia. If you think they make things like, tires, bolts, nuts and many other parts you are wrong. The percent outsourced compared to other car manufactured is low but it is still a big factor.
Someone had said the reason they are working on the CA orders first is to increase the Q4 numbers. If anyone thinks they can issue VINs the first week of March and the cars will be delivered by the end of the month you are talking about a different company than Tesla. They have yet to get cars to the customer any faster than six to eight weeks and that is best case. I hope they get them delivered to customer by the end of the month as it would a big turnaround but there has to be another reason.�
Mar 4, 2016
vandacca From what I recall, Tesla brought the Falcon Doors in house almost 1 year ago. It was around Spring 2015. Not that the actual date matters much to your point, but I just wanted to ensure accurate information.
Good point. Unless they managed to get the build time down to Model-S times.�
Mar 4, 2016
flankspeed8
The problem with this analogy is that it presumes that Tesla has not improved the process in the last 4 years. I don't think the Model S launch should be used as a benchmark for the X as it should be better having utilized lessons learned. again JMO though...�
Mar 4, 2016
AlMc I agree. JMO: TM should be maturing as a manufacturing company and should have learned from the model S ramp. This should have resulted in a better ramp and as EM indicated (my words, his sentiment) 'an exponential ramp'......We have yet to see this exponential ramp, AFAIK, five months + after the reveal.�
Mar 4, 2016
aesculus New day, different problems?�
Mar 4, 2016
Red Sage Tesla Motors Delivered a few of the Model S in June 2012, and by the end of the year the final car had reached 2,600+ Customers. Depending upon how you count it, that was managed in about six or seven months. Considering the late September 2015 launch of Model X, we are just five months into the process. Keep in mind that they had around 10,000 Reservations outstanding in June 2012... But had 13,000 Reservations by January 2013. It was considered a milestone when the company was able to Produce Model S at as much as 700 units per week.
A very good point. I was among those that expected Tesla Motors would be able to ramp up distribution of Model X much faster than they did Model S. I thought a lowball figure would have been 10,000+ by Christmas 2015... And reality has been far worse.
I believe the maturity they have gained has allowed them to realize they must focus on Quality Control over Abundant Quantity with Model X. That seems to have been a wise decision, given the supposed issues they have had to deal with thus far.
Indeed. The challenges they have faced with Model X may appear to be similar to those of early Model S, but there are significant differences, I believe. Had the Model X been as relatively 'simple' as early RWD Model S, the problems would have been fewer. But every option, every system, every sensor compounds the complexity of manufacturing and supply lines that much more.�
Mar 4, 2016
Spidy Just because a supplier works on it doesn't mean it out of your control. Nothing stops you from sending one of you engineers there every week/month and checking on the status. Checking the prototypes, testing, simulations etc.�
Mar 4, 2016
vandacca Reading the Elon Musk biography (Ashlee Vance), he has (personally) done a lot of that.�
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