Aug 22, 2014
radrick Wondering if others are experiencing recent delivery delay after factory retooling at beginning of August 2014. I ordered in first half of May 2014. Initial delivery date was set for the end of August. Now in limbo without any projected delivery date. Are some car configurations more likely to be delayed? Thanks for any comments.�
Aug 22, 2014
iadbound You'll want to read this thread.
Model S Delivery Update - Page 690�
Aug 23, 2014
LonghornDub Scheduled for Sept 4 delivery, and my DS told me my car was schedule to wrap production this (past) week. I haven't gone into production yet, so I'm assuming my delivery date will get pushed back as well. It hasn't actually gotten pushed back yet, but I'm very skeptical when my DS says it's still on track.
Pretty lame, but no sense worrying about something I can't control.
*UPDATE*: Just spoke to my DS. Delivery delayed ~2 weeks. New delivery date "latter half of September."�
Aug 23, 2014
bonaire Someone's gotta name this.
LineGate? DeliveryGate? Somehow, Gate has to be used.
�
Aug 23, 2014
karmamule I like DelayGate for the internal rhyming.
I'm trying to be stoic about this. I haven't officially heard I'm delayed yet, but since other people with deliveries around mine (12th of September) are now getting delayed I expect I will hear something any time now. I'd rather have a delayed car that's reliable then an on-time car that was rushed and has multiple issues. Time for distractions....�
Aug 23, 2014
flashflood Does anyone here have a post-retooling Model S? I'd be curious whether anything has gotten better or worse, e.g. alignment of body parts.�
Aug 23, 2014
galangg I'm pretty sure my delivery date of Sept 29 is going to get pushed with stories I've been hearing about earlier Sept deliveries being pushed. Nothing I can control.�
Aug 23, 2014
karmamule Quarter boundaries are a Big Deal for Tesla because they want to have good news for # of cars delivered for their quarterly reports. I think they will put in a great deal of effort to avoid having delivery dates cross the quarter-end. You may still get delayed but they will be working very, very hard to keep as many deliveries on this side of September 30th as they can.�
Aug 23, 2014
bonaire I read a post somewhere about the factory configuration. That the new line is in a different place in the building, Was it really needed to shut down and "retool" rAther than just overlap them, say run the new line slowly in July and ramp it up in August?�
Aug 23, 2014
flashflood I did the factory tour before when they only had one line. It's a breathtaking logistical flow. Several possibilities come to mind:
(1) The needed their most senior people from the first line to get the second line up and running.
(2) There is still some shared equipment, like the main (giant) hydraulic press, and they needed to modify operations on line 1 to allow lines 1 and 2 to interleave smoothly.
(3) They took this opportunity to fix known issues/bottlenecks the existing line, so that both new lines work optimally and, to the extent possible, identically.�
Aug 23, 2014
Afdyce My dashboard still shows In Production but the delivery date has gone from late September to October. Our 2013 Range Rover Evoque had similar issues which pushed delivery from November to December last year, in that case it was problems with the software for the new 9 speed gearbox.
I am sure that moving production was well planned as it is the lifeblood of the company, but there is always something you can't predict. Seeing how this little start up company already managed to leapfrog ahead of companies like Mercedes, BMW and Audi with three hundred years experience between them, it's only a glitch I'm sure.�
Aug 23, 2014
shelbri Interesting that your dashboard says In production with a late September delivery date. My delivery date is Sept 13th and they are still sourcing parts.�
Aug 23, 2014
lloyds I wonder if the delays are due to the upcoming Model X production�
Aug 23, 2014
radrick Thanks for the link. I'm learning quickly about everyone's delays. Will update when I get a date from DS. Wish I didn't live across the country from the factory. Transit time and distance do matter. I do like seeing so many Super Chargers in FL.�
Aug 23, 2014
bonnie The delays are undoubtedly because they just reconfigured the entire factory floor. Revalidating equipment always takes longer than expected. Always. As I posted on another thread, they've been using some of the service area to finish up final manufacturing detailing and such, working weekends, while they finish getting the factory floor running smoothly again. (I was in Fremont last weekend, so observed personally.) That's all normal and to be expected after reconfiguration. Not a surprise by any means. Everyone was upbeat about the changes, things will be normal again shortly.
Model X has nothing to do with current delays, since they haven't even finalized for beta design - which would then mean they were making dies and about to stamp parts. But they aren't there yet.
- - - Updated - - -
Yes. They didn't just add a new line. Process work flows have been changed to increase efficiency. This was all planned and necessary for production expansion going forward.�
Aug 23, 2014
Afdyce Hello Shelbri, it turned from sourcing parts to production last Friday 15th August.�
Aug 23, 2014
chickensevil He isn't in the US, so there is a bigger gap between finishing production and delivery by about 3-5 extra weeks, depending on location.�
Aug 23, 2014
benemac They could be be attempting to fill orders earlier for those outside the US. Maybe working on a batch of right-handed cars currently. It must take awhile for a car to get across the states and then the Atlantic!
Very exciting for you.�
Aug 23, 2014
karmamule My fortunate cookie tonight: You are the flexible person in your present situation
Hmmm......�
Aug 24, 2014
shelbri I guess this makes sense giving shipping time. It's been a long wait and now I have to delay a week due to work related travel. Still very excited.�
Aug 24, 2014
LonghornDub Nice config. I've got the exact same coming my way (except no fog lights).
Well, if they ever actually ship it, that is.�
Aug 24, 2014
chickensevil Based on the latest report from the street they should be back to 800 a week this week and ramping up quickly to 1000 a week within 4-6 weeks. So I wouldnt expect further delays after this week and wherever you are in line for that date to be fulfilled. It is very likely that people with deliveries toward the end of Sept will still retain their dates since they are going to try to keep as many people on this side of the 30th as possible. I wouldn't expect anyone to slip into Oct at this point. But if you do I would love to know since the implications would be worth discussing.�
Aug 24, 2014
docrice I recently scheduled my delivery at the factory and originally was hoping for 10/1. However, I had to go with 9/30 because apparently there will be no deliveries taking place from 10/1 - 10/5. Not sure if that's news to anyone, but thought I'd throw that out there.�
Aug 25, 2014
iadbound My DS hasn't changed the Sept. 24th date, so I think you are dead on. Now I can worry, instead, about getting an end-of-quarter special. :scared:�
Aug 25, 2014
S-dog I've been Sept 12 for a month. Hasn't changed. Factory delivery.�
Aug 25, 2014
seanahan That's why engineers build these unexpected times into their estimates. If they've significantly overshot those estimates, they did a bad job.
Again, saying it's "not a suprise" is not reasonable. Obviously it was a big surprise, otherwise so many people wouldn't be getting their deliveries delayed. They thought they would be back up and running in time to make these deliveries, and they were wrong, they screwed up. I'm not personally upset at Tesla at this point, as I understand they aren't perfect.
To put it another way, if as you say "it is not a suprise" to Tesla, then they have been deliberately telling lies to their customers for the last month. I would prefer to think they hit some unexpected engineering issues, rather than that.
Edit: Please see my follow-up comments, as I have judged this post to be overly harsh.�
Aug 25, 2014
Ton Mine order the same. Order 5th of May. Deliverydate suspected delivery first end of August then end september 27-09 and now October.�
Aug 25, 2014
chickensevil Ouch, a shift to October? hope they move it back a bit, because that sucks in more than one way...�
Aug 25, 2014
bonnie '
"Deliberately telling lies" is a bit rough.
I agree regarding reasonable schedules. I've worked places with different schools of thought on that. I've always found it best to plan for most likely case, based on past experience (which usually plans in some worst case recovery time). But I've also worked for some large companies that absolutely insisted on best case scheduling, because they felt it kept people motivated. (Personally, I felt it had the opposite effect, with people always missing goals -- but you have to pick your battles.)
In any case, when I hear a line is shutting down to reconfigure & knowing what that means in terms of equipment validation, training, etc. ... I just automatically add extra time in. So not a surprise, no. To me. To take my words and infer then that Tesla must be deliberately have been telling lies to customers for the last month is a bit much.�
Aug 25, 2014
chickensevil Bonnie, I'm sure he is just a bit upset overall with his situation and is venting it on the forums. It has to be frustrating to be someone who has to experience this kind of pushback, especially this stage in the game. I know, I know, some people had to wait forever for their cars and have received multiple pushbacks and delays... but not everyone is accustomed to "Tesla time" so I generally try to give people a break.
That being said, seanahan, it was a little far though to suggest that they are lying... Everything I have seen from Tesla would say the opposite of that for sure. I would suggest, you take a deep breath. I know it can be frustrating to have your car pushed back and have to wait a little longer. You will get it soon enough!�
Aug 25, 2014
bonnie Hah. If I didn't think that was the case, my reply would have been a bit more pointed.�
Aug 25, 2014
ckessel Ah yes, the Spanish Theory of Value, where management figures maximum value can only be achieved by having workers completely crushed and miserable by an impossible deadline. Of course, this leads to engineers rolling their eyes, giving massively inflated estimates, and eventually moving on to a new company. Tesla is infamous for being way too optimistic in their schedules. Whether it's hopeless optimism or the Spanish Theory at work, I have no idea, but I'm certainly not surprised the factory rework took longer than Tesla was hoping.
Typically, dates are broadcast from somewhere up the chain and even if the folks in the trenches know it's impossible, their safest play is to keep their heads down and let it blow over since being the guy that stands up and says it's not going to happen gets you fired as being "negative", "not committed", or "not a team player". The folks talking to customers are generally relaying the expectations that have been given to them, so they're not intentionally lying though some may know in their gut that the dates they've been told to give aren't likely to be met. Unfortunately, that's how 95% of companies (mal)function, even some of the good ones.
"I love deadlines. I love the wooshing noise they make as they go by." -- Douglas Adams�
Aug 25, 2014
bonnie Hopeless optimism. There is a feeling of 'we can do anything, let's GO' at Tesla. I saw the guys who came in on the weekend and were over in the service area, finishing up the last details on cars coming off the factory floor, to keep the numbers up. They were in a great mood, excited about the line changes and how it would increase efficiency, excited to be part of the company. Absolutely no one was in the 'crushed and miserable' state (though I've seen that many times at other companies, absolutely).�
Aug 25, 2014
chickensevil Ah, sometimes I have a hard time telling with you... perhaps it is just me.
Sadly, I work for a company that works like that... Well, I work for a company that works for a company that works like that... but still. I can say, I don't like it. I get asked all the time to drop everything for this or that priority 1 item, but yet they still expect me to somehow accomplish everything else on my plate without shifting any deadlines. Ahhhh Good times.
It might just be that they have an optimistic goal, but are just not mean when the goal is missed. Like hey, if we work really hard we might be able to hit this, but a miss doesn't result in being yelled at. Just guessing though. Have never worked in manufacturing so I can't even begin to think about what technique would work best for both productivity and morale.�
Aug 25, 2014
seanahan I mean, imo, "best case scheduling" is very nearly morally equivalent to "deliberately telling lies". Especially given that as engineers (I am one myself), we all know that best case scheduling is not a sound method for time estimation. And telling customers the best case estimate is dishonest.
I was actually not saying that Tesla was lying. I was saying that Bonnie was implying that Tesla was lying. That distinction is important. (And I generally retract that statement, as obviously that's not what was implied. It's just that a cynical reading of the post could lead me to that.)
I would much rather think, Tesla engineers were slightly too optimistic and over-estimated the level of difficulty, even with a reasonable amount of slop built in to their calculations.
And yes, I'm venting a little bit (ok a lot). My delivery is scheduled for September 15, and from what I've read over the past few days, that seems <5% likely to actually happen. And Tesla is not saying anything as a whole, or to me specifically. I know why they aren't, for various business reasons, technical reasons, all sorts of good reasons, but all of those reasons are putting Tesla first over their customers, who've been patiently waiting (up until now) for 3 months for their cars, only to find out at the last minute that Tesla has known for weeks that they wouldn't deliver on time.
Now, there is still a lot of time left, and few details have come out regarding the factory slowdown, so I may be proven wrong in a few weeks. Apologies for the harshness of my statements, and we'll know soon if my concerns are serious or overblown.�
Aug 25, 2014
ckessel Well, it's usually done by crappy companies as a way to extract a ton of overtime. One book on estimating describes it as management extracting an insane date from engineers via the strategy of "what's the earliest date where you can't prove you won't be done".
Which is different than the hopelessly optimistic, which isn't "best case scheduling", but rather a true attempt at a realistic estimate and the folks involved just didn't realize how optimistic they were. You don't want to be hopeless optimistic since that obviously leads to problems, but it's certainly a less evil and more addressable problem than if the company is just plain evil as a cultural value.�
Aug 25, 2014
bonnie This I can agree with.
I think you may find things are back on track rather quickly. I have a tour tomorrow a.m. of the factory floor and will see the new dual lines for myself. Even though the majority of my career has been spent on the design and development side of the engineering line, I have a real love for manufacturing. It's where you can measure the real quality of the engineering work (or lack thereof!) and it can make or break a company in short order. I can't wait to see the changes. I've heard there are some major ones that have substantially increased efficiency. You may not be impacted at all.
I know people are a little on edge. You've all put a lot of money down for an incredible car, you've been waiting and reading everything possible you can read while you wait. Any delay seems like a lifetime. But it isn't. I won't pull the 'well guess how long Roadster | Model S Signature | Model X reservation holders waited|have waited' card, because you've all heard it. It doesn't mean your week or two goes by any faster. But if you put it in perspective, it really isn't that much time.�
Aug 25, 2014
seanahan There are a couple of significant disadvantages to being delayed at the last minute, especially with regards to financing, putting the down payment together, organizing the trade-in, etc. that are not problematic when waiting or delaying for periods that are outside of 30 days. I'm more than happy to wait a few more weeks to get the quality product that I'm sure Tesla will deliver.
My problem is with the communication. If they are one week behind on manufacturing (seems reasonable given the notes here), then say they are 800 cars behind. If they ramp up, and work 25% harder to produce 1,000 cars a week, it will take them 4 weeks to catch up (4 * 1000 = 5 * 800). If they are two weeks behind (seems possible given what I've read on this forum), it would take them 8 weeks to catch up. However, in both of these scenarios, no individual is pushed back by more than two weeks, it will just take the 8 weeks for people to get their delivery on time. Plus, almost no one will actually know their delivery date 8 weeks out, so the only people who will "suffer" are those with delivery in late August and September. This is especially true if the "end of quarter goals" are a target, although I think people are reading too much into that.
If they were to come out and say something like the above, no one would be upset. However, I agree that from a business perspective, almost no company is ever going to give a detailed response as above, and they will simply assure us that "they are doing everything they can to make all of their deliveries as soon as possible, and please be patient with them". Hey, maybe they'll throw in a free parcel shelf for everyone who has to wait!�
Aug 25, 2014
lsnetman FYI my delivery is scheduled for September 5. They have admitted to me there "might" be a delay but don't (or won"t) know more. They have offered to provide a rental car if I am without wheels due to turning in my current lease car based on the original delivery date.�
Aug 25, 2014
chickensevil I don't think that is an accurate description of how far "behind" they are. If they were truly 800 or 1600 cars behind that would be disastrous and would surely impact numbers. Their description of 1 or 2 weeks behind strikes me more that as they ramp up it will take them one or two weeks to clear the added backlog caused by the slow down. 800 assumes they weren't doing anything for the first week back online... which would just not be true... this has been confirmed through enough sources that they were building SOME cars during the first 2 weeks back online... we just don't know how much.
What we do know:
-It was less than 800 (as confirmed by the analyst report just recently put out) which would make it less output than pre shutdown.
-They are working to speed up to 800 and rapidly move to 1000 in order to clear out any delays since they must meet quarterly guidance (A miss here would be very bad)
-The latest reports from people from their DS states 1 week behind schedule.
-They will be back to 800 this week (sometime) and pushing 1000 in 3-5 weeks.
Some guesses
-If they were supposed to be at 800 out the gate and they are going to ramp up to 1000 in 3-5 weeks, lets go with 4 as a medium, a sequential ramp each week would be an extra 50 a week (800 this week, 850 the 1st, 900 the 2nd, 950 the 3rd, 1000 the 4th - which is the week starting Sept 22).
-One week behind, based on this assumed sequential ramp, means to me that everyone got shifted back 1 week and the ramp up will close that gap.
-Given that noone has had a shift in dates from ~15th on you can reasonably assume that they will be caught back up by then which would be the start of week 3 or at 900 a week run rate.
How we still meet guidance:
-9000 estimated produced for Q3.
-Pre-shutdown as far as I know they were running 5 days a week, at 160 cars a day giving 14 working days for 2,240.
-Startup on Aug 4th and lets just assume this week starts at 800 with my carry forward estimate of 1000 by week 5, that gives ~4,900 cars produced starting today through the end of the Quarter.
-Combined would equal 7,140 leaving our unknown 3 week gap in which they will need to have made 1860 cars, which is an average of 620 a week (note this would include Saturdays for right now, unclear how long they are going to be running 6 days)...
-while this would be "behind" in terms of starting back up at 800 from the get-go, they clearly still have wiggle room assuming they averaged 620 cars each week over the past week.
-To give a simple example, they could have been running at 560 week one, 600 week two, and 700 week three and STILL clear their guidance.
How this affects deliveries (you guys waiting for cars and getting delays):
So, it is very likely that they undershot what they had anticipated from the restart. However with some basic guesses you can see how they will catch back up to where they need to be. With such a rapid ramp the later Sept deliveries would likely remain unaffected. Also *some* people would reasonably still get their car on time, while others would be delayed. Tesla doesn't allocate their supply strictly based on time of order but takes many other things into account. If they were expecting 800 a week from the restart (this is unclear and just an assumption) then that would put them at present "behind" by 540 cars. Not nearly as dramatic and this is a delay back caused by three weeks of not quite fast enough production.
Given that they continue to tailor back the estimated deliveries for October/November timeframe they clearly are anticipating catching back up to present demand levels rather quickly from new orders. Hope this helps...�
Aug 25, 2014
iadbound An excellent analysis as usual from Chickensevil. I agree that things probably aren't too bad yet. The key, that we really don't know yet, is whether the underlying cause of the delay is fully sorted out. If not, there may be something to worry about, but I'm not panicked . . . yet.�
Aug 25, 2014
lsnetman Well, I've been keeping a stiff upper lip through all this, but frankly, I'm pretty PO'ed. I was given a delivery date of September 5th at least 6 weeks ago, Tesla's call not mine. As a result, I have scheduled and confirmed a boat service delivery, time off from work, a return of my current car lease and, believe it or not, a 3 week out of country trip. And now it looks that, with a week's delay, I'll actually have 2 whole days before I leave. Plenty of time to make sure all is OK with the car, arrange fixes if it's not, etc. Yes, I know it's a car; yes, I know we're all touchy-feely about Tesla, and yes, I know the delay may not be anyone's "fault", but it still sucks. In my work, I'm never allowed to make a mistake. I guess my expectations are set too high. OK, I feel a little better now, but not much.�
Aug 25, 2014
ckessel And deservedly so. Tesla has earned a lot of the grief they get over missed delivery dates. And it really harms Tesla's message that their ordering/delivery experience is better than a dealers.�
Aug 25, 2014
radrick Isnetman I sympathize with you. My delivery date was Aug 29, set at the beginning of June. Just found out from my DS, delivery is now hopefully Sept 18. Therefore it looks like a 20 day delay for me. Hope this helps others guess what their delay might be. VIN: 48590
It took 2 months to get my delivery day off from work. My schedule is not very flexible. I was selling my car on Aug 29. I scheduled plastic protection installation Aug 30. I am trying to get time off on the new delivery day. If not, DS said they would work until 9 PM to let me pick up the car. If necessary, I could rent a car before delivery on Tesla's dime, drive there after work and leave the rental with them. They seem to be bending over backwards to work with my schedule. I started this thread so I could learn about delays and let myself and others vent a little.
I was on the wait list of 5 Toyota dealerships for about 4 months for my current 2004 Prius, which is similar to my Model S wait. At that time, each dealership was getting about one Prius a month. Difference is Toyota salesperson called me on April 20 and I picked it up that night, so I didn't have a specific delivery date to obsess about for months, only to be disappointed 2 weeks before delivery.
What I was very disappointed with is that Tesla couldn't give me an estimate on a new delivery date (it took 11 days to set a new date). I'm sure with time, our little delays will be a relatively minor memory. At least we don't have to worry about poor cold weather battery performance and poor road conditions (innumerable potholes, salt).�
Aug 25, 2014
LonghornDub A 20-day delay is pretty ridiculous. I thought 2 weeks was bad (and for all I know, I may well end up being delayed 20+ days when it's all said and done).�
Aug 25, 2014
bonnie "Panicked"?? What would you be panicked about? What something are you thinking there may be to worry about?�
Aug 25, 2014
JBusch I can live with a delayed delivery. Tesla is a startup bringing a disruptive car into a entrenched industry. Frankly I might be more concerned if they cranked out cars, delivered them and then checked the quality. I may get push back about being a startup but they are IMO. They way I look at it they could have pushed production to the max in the old configuration until they had a " perfect plan" in six months to a year. Or they pulled together a "workable plan" to manage growth and have implemented it knowing 80% more planning might only yielded 10% more perfection. Tesla has proved to me they more than capable of getting any issues corrected and new improvements integrated moving forward. My $0.02 worth.�
Aug 25, 2014
ckessel I understand why you'd say that, but with a market cap like Tesla has and a couple years now of delivering Model S, Tesla doesn't get a pass anymore for "startup" status.
Insane growth just comes with its own pains. Hard to hire that fast, hard to put in processes where you didn't need them before. Plus, about every factor of 7 requires a org structure changes (7->50->350->2500->7500 employees) to keep teams manageable. I can understand why Tesla faces issues. Understanding isn't forgiveness, but it helps when trying to keep perspective.�
Aug 26, 2014
iadbound Bonnie -- Just a bit of playful exaggeration. There is, of course, nothing to panic about.
I know the car will get here, and I've not built my whole schedule around that exact date as some have done or have to do if their schedules are super tight.�
Aug 26, 2014
seanahan You do make some good points, and I won't go over them point by point, but I will summarize my opinion as, you seem to have a very optimistic view of things. From what I've read on this forum, many people are delayed by a number of weeks, and I'm still not certain anyone in the US has taken delivery since production resumed.�
Aug 26, 2014
RDoc It will also be interesting to see how many problems the early cars produced after the production line redesign have. When I hear stories about people working late finishing the cars I get concerned about quality.�
Aug 26, 2014
seanahan I have no problem with a delayed delivery, with two caveats. First, don't tell me I have a delivery date, and then not meet it. Just tell me my delivery date is pending, and give me an estimated range (e.g. Late September). I understand that the 30 day limit is a somewhat important threshold, as financing quotes are only good for 30 days (same for trade-ins with AutoNation). So likely Tesla didn't think at the time there would be a delay. I'm ok with a delay. I want a quality product, and I'm happy to wait. I've been waiting my life for a Tesla (without realizing it).
Second, why won't they just come out and tell me about the delay? If someone scheduled for Aug 29 was delayed to Sep 18, then people scheduled for Sep 15 must surely be delayed, right? That's the thing that is bugging me right now.�
Aug 26, 2014
chickensevil Unfortunately we are just a very small subset of the Tesla population (and diminishing in percent each day). The most people ever on this site was 9 months ago at 9,000, middle of the day (almost) for the entire US and we only have 1,300 people hitting this website... not all of which are current or soon to be owners (people keep tabs on this site strictly for investor reasons and such)... Of that the people with a car on order are an even smaller number. We just don't get the kind of coverage like we used to on the overall view of the company from this website and people reporting delivery status, so you have to build in a healthy buffer zone. This became evident during Q3 2013 and has only gotten much worse. If even 100 people on this site are reporting their upcoming delivery status from today up through October that is a mere 1% of the upcoming orders at hand (approximately 10,000 cars will be made between now and the end of October).
We are still early enough in the quarter, and with the comments from Elon recently about China becoming the number 2 player as far as demand/deliveries goes (bumping Norway into number 3) it is VERY likely that cars being made right now are servicing a lot of that demand. We also have reports of people from Australia getting their cars made (which is new), as well as other foreign countries (I know specifically the UK has had a couple people chime in). This is pretty normal, having early quarter production cars be shipped overseas and late quarter production more closer to home.
I am actually trying to be very conservative in my view since I am not at all trying to set the expectation for some crazy view that builds people's hopes up. Where I get the estimates for the ramp up and the numbers is based on the assumption that Tesla is not going to miss their guidance. It has been a VERY long time since they had a serious miss, the company has executed to their claims quarter over quarter and then some. I feel confident that the 9,000 production was a conservative number (on top of the 2 week shutdown) and I don't see why they would miss that target. Again, if they do, this has much deeper implications.
I welcome further feedback and discussion on this though, since I certainly don't know everything and could easily be making some false assumptions.
- - - Updated - - -
To address the first, they until just recently have been not only hitting the dates correctly, but actually coming out ahead in most cases on the dates. Talking with different people at Tesla that I have had the chance to make contact with (not that I have spoken to anyone super important or some such) the sentiment seems to be geared toward setting realistic expectations because it would be better to be early than late. Clearly they were not fully anticipating the impact here at least not to the degree that it happened, or at the very least someone didn't get the memo to set appropriate expectations... Which I am right there in saying this is bad and something they should work on.
That said, I don't know why they are not telling you about a shift in the dates if it is indeed going to happen. Not all DS's are created equal and some are certainly better and more proactive than others. If this is something that bothers you, please, reach out to them... and if you don't get a satisfactory answer then escalate it to management and so forth. Worst case send an email to ownership and/or possibly Jerome. Although I wouldn't jump straight there unless you needed to. There are certainly areas of recourse for you if you feel like you are not getting treated well as a customer. And the company/management really does care about customer satisfaction. But they can't fix something they don't know about.
I actually challenge everyone impacted by this, when you get your car (finally) and get that customer delivery satisfaction survey FILL IT OUT! Because seriously, they take all these things to heart, and I personally have seen positive results come from something I specifically called out during my delivery process (it was something unique to my state of Virginia). Every time I have pointed out rooms for improvement they have been very grateful and take all of that seriously.�
Aug 26, 2014
seanahan But if of that 1%, 100% of them are delayed, then we would have to surmise that TMC users are not a good sampling of buyers?
I've been giving them some time to actually contact me, as I'm three weeks out as of yesterday, if I don't hear anything by two weeks, I will get my DS on the phone. However, the overall impressions on this forum have been that as a whole, the DS do not have good up to the minute information, or are not willing to share it until the latest possible moment. My experience so far with my DS has been a very positive one, and I hate to contact him to ask him a question I know he won't be able to answer. If he says, "your delivery is on time", I won't believe him (from reading this forum), and if he says "your delivery is delayed", I'll be upset he didn't tell me that when he first knew, and not waited until I called.�
Aug 26, 2014
Lump I haven't seen any deliveries in the US in August on TMC, the official Tesla Motors forums or Facebook & most deliveries being pushed into late September or October, any deliveries at Fremont?�
Aug 26, 2014
lsnetman I share are your pain. My VIN is 50309. I still haven't seen the car go into production, seen the original Sept. 5th date change on the mytesla site, nor been notified of a new date.�
Aug 26, 2014
MachoTiger Add me to the "1%". VIN 50865. I was originally scheduled for a 9/18 delivery in Atlanta. I was just rescheduled for 9/27. I'm not as angry as I anticipated, mainly because I've been reading this board and I expected it.�
Aug 26, 2014
LonghornDub My VIN is just a bit older than yours, and my Sept 4th delivery in TX was delayed until "the latter half of September," so I would imagine you can expect the same.
(My dashboard actually still says Sept 4, but my DS called to tell me that's no longer accurate.)�
Aug 26, 2014
lsnetman No doubt you're right. However, I'll be overseas until the first week of October, so not only will my delay be longer, but they won't get any Q3 benefit from my deal. It's really not the delay so much, it's all the other moving parts of my schedule that are affected that become so annoying.�
Aug 26, 2014
uselesslogin Well there was one delivery, AZNick was the first to post about getting delayed and he has his car. Also some folks on the official forum are now going into production. Also, someone spotted a couple of truckloads on the highway as well.�
Aug 26, 2014
schonelucht Also note that Tesla is likely pushing back US production in favour of international production. Ie, if the cars for China don't get produced this month, they won't be delivered in Q3 which would certainly set them up for a quarterly miss which would be... not good. Therefore I think nearly everything that's being produced today is for foreign markets. That being said, some of the European deliveries planned for Q4 have been notified of a push back of one or two weeks as well.�
Aug 26, 2014
hiroshiy I paid deposit in April 2013 and was told I'll get the car delivered by around September 2013. Then Tesla said it's winter, no by spring, and by summer, and a few weeks ago finally I was given September 8th 2014! My VIN is 44355 and as of today I'm still waiting. So it's one year delay.
You guys (and ladies) are much better than me!�
Aug 26, 2014
louver This seems somewhat optimistic to me based on my own experience and based on reading various "delay" threads. According to my DS, my car (VIN 48XXX) was scheduled for production around 8/11, i.e., the second week of production after the shut-down. It is now scheduled for production around 9/1, i.e., three weeks later and the fifth week after the shut-down. That is a sample of one, of course, but in addition I have seen postings from others with similar VINs which are consistent with my delay. Some of these others are now "in production" and some are still "sourcing parts" (as I am--I keep checking). This is also consistent with the absence of any deliveries reported by anyone other than lucky AZNick.
So it seems to me that it has taken four weeks of operation just to produce those cars which had originally been scheduled for the first week after shut-down, more or less. Only now are they starting to build cars from the second week's original schedule. That sounds like more catch-up than we may have thought.�
Aug 26, 2014
CHGolferJim When in the production/delivery timeline is the date of sale (in re quarterly targets, or any other reason)? Does it differ for US vs. international sales?�
Aug 26, 2014
iadbound It's very hard to tell. Tesla could have had mostly international production right after the line started up again (e.g., right hand drive), and it might have decided to shift domestic production as a result. It doesn't necessarily mean that Tesla is a full three or four weeks behind on production. But without more information, it's just impossible to say with any certainty. Of course, it is uncertainty that leads to frustration.�
Aug 26, 2014
LonghornDub My DS said two weeks--not one week--behind schedule, and he didn't sound particularly confident even at that. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we're looking at 2-4 weeks delays, depending on your production week, delivery location, etc.
Of course, it's also possible that he was giving himself a bunch of slack and it will actually be less than a 2-week delay, but that wasn't the sense I got.�
Aug 26, 2014
karmamule From what I've read Tesla won't consider a sale as completed and counted until delivery has taken place. Up until that point it's just an order.�
Aug 26, 2014
NigelM Correct, and that's pretty much standard practice (I purchased a new pick-up for our stables last month and it was delivered to my house at 9.00pm on 7/31 because it had to be physically off the dealers premises).�
Aug 26, 2014
chickensevil Well I have had two people saymy estimations are optimistic... As in there is a strong chance that it is not the case and I ever rebut with the population of the people posting here is such a small subset of the population on the whole and yet, I am still optimistic. They are clearly making cars and have been since the 4th. People have reported back from having been in and around the factory all this time... So it stands to reason that *someone* *somewhere* didn't get delayed or have at the least already, or will be soon taking delivery. I just can't believe that they wouldn't have been able to make at least an average of 625 a week... I mean that number is taking us back to like January as far as production rate as it is... The picture of doom and gloom is strong in this thread.
I believe until full payment is received but it is basically the same thing... It is likely only a slight difference for some... Like those in Texas where they have to pay for their car before they will put it on the final truck to deliver it to their house. At least that was my understanding.�
Aug 26, 2014
rpo My estimated delivery was moved from 9/9 to "hopefully early to mid October". This is for a 49xxx VIN. I inquired as to why it was delayed and my rep did not know yet, but everything was getting pushed back.�
Aug 26, 2014
louver Quite right--I can't argue with that logic. But if that is right it does not explain the last-minute change of production plans and the apparent communication problems with affected buyers. So I have assumed that the delays were due to unexpected problems rather than to shuffled priorities.
For what it's worth, discussing such problems should not be construed as "doom and gloom." It is just disappointment, and I think most of us are simply trying to recalibrate our expectations. At least that is my perspective.�
Aug 26, 2014
LonghornDub Wow, so that could be a month-plus delay. Seems like these delay estimates are getting worse nearly every day.�
Aug 26, 2014
seanahan Let's do an experiment. As of today, I am still scheduled for delivery on September 15th. I have not talked to my DS in a week, and last I did, he said I was still on target. When do you expect that I will get delivery?
My expectation as of today is first week of October.�
Aug 26, 2014
chickensevil Fair enough, to help it should be 2 days of production plus we shall say 1 week to ship (should be a little less but hopefully that is decent since I don't know how everything works in Texas) so your car should hit the "in production" status somewhere around the 2nd or 3rd of Sept. I would start to agree with your sentiment if you don't see or hear anything by that date.�
Aug 26, 2014
Endodoc There are quite a few threads on the delivery delay, so my apologies to anyone who has read this already. A little light of hope amongst all the doom and gloom: My Model S went into production today! I'm still waiting on a new delivery date though.
Cheers!�
Aug 26, 2014
chickensevil The comment was not directed toward the general delays and people venting their frustrations with having to wait longer and having unexpected delays. Many of us have been there, my own car didn't have a perfect delivery cycle and I voiced frustrations so please do not think I was trying to stop that at all.�
Aug 26, 2014
iadbound A fair point.
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Great news! Congrats!�
Aug 26, 2014
lsnetman Here's my latest update direct from my DS. My VIN is 50309 and my original delivery date was September 5. He confirmed the delay and believes mid September will be the delivery. He acknowledged that Tesla is aware of my overseas trip on September 15 and they are trying to "prioritize" my build. I told him that I appreciated the update and the stated goal of expediting my delivery, but that a delivery with only a day before I leave didn't make much sense. He seemed to agree and couldn't have been nicer, but wasn't able to indicate anything further. He did confirm the rental car would still be available should i need it. My dashboard was just changed to September 13. We shall see.�
Aug 26, 2014
LonghornDub Good info. My VIN is relatively close to yours (50012), so I'll let you know if I hear anything further regarding my supposed mid-September delivery.�
Aug 26, 2014
radrick My Dashboard changed today!! "In Production The Tesla Factory is building your Model S". Pick Up Time is still Sept 18, 2014 (which still represents a 20 day delay from my original delivery date). I wasn't expecting production so far removed from delivery. If it supposedly takes 2 days to build, testing for how many days? then shipping (perhaps a week to FL). What is happening all those extra days? Starting tomorrow there are 23 days to delivery. I hope everyone gets good news soon!�
Aug 26, 2014
chickensevil These posts of people finally going into production and so far there is a decent disconnect between production and delivery indicates that they shot out to a very conservative delivery date "just in case" since they didn't want more disappointment. Just a guess, but that is what it seems and I am happy for those whose cars are finally going into production!
To directly answer your inquiry radrick, no. It really shouldn't take that long to get to you. You will most likely get an update once it gets put on a truck with a new target date. Something I found out with my car, if you go into My Tesla and on your delivery date and time and click the edit button, check out the date and tines listed and see if anything sooner is listed there. This changed during my process twice because I was staying way ahead of my DS on keeping myself up to date. He would have contacted me eventually I just jumped the gun a bit.
Anyway, congrats on getting into production hopefully this trend continues!�
Aug 26, 2014
radrick Thank you chickensevil for the edit tip. Still says 8 am Sept 18 for delivery, but I will check it (frequently) for myself & this thread and update if it changes.
Isnetman - I hope you get delivery soon & wish my car could hitch a ride on your hopefully early truck. If you ever make it up to Ft Lauderdale-Hollywood, I'll cover lunch (or dinner). Heck if any of you all make it here, I'm buying!�
Aug 26, 2014
chickensevil Note this only worked as of March... I cannot confirm that this still works, but I don't see why it wouldn't. But hey, gives you one extra step to preoccupy your time as you refresh the page CONSTANTLY!
I might have broke my F5 key while I was waiting for my car... heh.�
Aug 27, 2014
rav My car has entered the paint process so things are getting back on track. DS reports that the actual build process should be quicker. Right now I'm scheduled for the 9/12 but it could actually come sooner.�
Aug 27, 2014
gmo43 Whats your vin?�
Aug 27, 2014
galangg Is that a separate status than just being in production?�
Aug 27, 2014
bonnie I visited the Fremont factory yesterday - while I cannot give information like 'how many cars were under production or rolling off the line while you were watching' (signed NDA), I can confirm that the lines are up and running, with no areas shielded from my view, etc. It's been quite a transformation in a very short time. Instead of car bodies and subassemblies moving from station to station on the ground, they now move about on a second level, positioned above at the next station. Just that alone is a huge improvement , putting a lot of stations closer together (and communication), clearing congestion, and lessening possibility of accidents from the interaction of people movement and parts movement. The flow is improved, also - the flow from receiving/inspection/warehouse/floor is much more linear (translate = efficent). Manufacturing engineers are (appropriately) co-located on the floor (an additional bullpen is out there now). Do I believe they are positioned to be able to double production, based on what I saw? Yes.
On side note, music was playing at different stations, equipment has been named by operators after diff comic book characters (Iceman, Wolverine, etc.). Break areas are interspersed within the production area, with greenery and such around. Well lit, not the dark dingy production lines of old. While waiting outside for a charge to finish on my Roadster (put me in the employee lot), people were upbeat coming and going.
While there are no Model X under production, nor Model X parts on the floor (really, folks - it is not in production - Alpha parts are traditionally custom made off-site), I can say (without violating NDA) that a new pit is in the stamping area in anticipation of new dies being cut for body panels. Overall manufacturing process appears to be set up to handle different configurations of Model S and Model X flowing through the same line.
While mine was a one-off tour, I did see regularly scheduled tours happening. So go see for yourself!�
Aug 27, 2014
rav 48748, going to MA.
My DS just emailed the info to me. The dashboard now says that they are building it.�
Aug 27, 2014
ENZA Just got a call 2 minutes ago. Taking delivery this saturday at 11am instead of 1st week of September! Very exciting.�
Aug 27, 2014
galangg Awesome news!�
Aug 27, 2014
DaveT @bonnie thanks for sharing!�
Aug 27, 2014
radrick Are there standard sequential phrases used on the Dashboard to describe the progress of the car's life cycle?
That is, I started with "Sourcing Parts". Now I'm "In Production".
Is Assembly Complete next? Q/A in progress? Shipping? Delivery?�
Aug 27, 2014
reilersjr I just got the call from DS saying I'm pushed out a week at this time. He's still optimistic that they may be able to hit my orig. delivery date(9/18), but no promises. VIN 51024�
Aug 27, 2014
JBusch @Bonnie thank you for the read out. Nothing beats boots on the ground. Two questions for you:
1- Did you depart Tesla more optimistic than when you arrived?
2- Overall could you comment on employee moral and attitude. We took the original factory tour pre production. At that time moral was sky high and each employee I talked to had that Tesla grin knowing the were a part of something very special. The attitudes were upbeat but many felt worn out due to first factory tour and push to go live.�
Aug 27, 2014
chickensevil Yes, "Sourcing Parts", "In Production", "Production Complete" (says preparing your car for shipment or some such), I believe (don't quote me) there is an "In transit" and then I think "Delivered"... I hope I didn't forget something. Something I have seen happen between Production Complete and In Transit is that something didn't check out correctly after it came off the line and they had to fix something. This could be any type of defect they deem hold worthy and could cause a delay... But I don't think this is common at all.
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I wish I could...�
Aug 27, 2014
bonnie I'm sure they'll release some video of the plant at some point soon (soon = this year). They've had video of the old setup out there for a long time. No reason not to update it.
- - - Updated - - -
I departed Tesla with my initial understanding from different sources validated - the lines are up and running, it is a far more efficient layout, it is establishing the groundwork for future production expansion.
I'm in touch with Tesla employees on a regular basis, at a variety of levels within the company. (I'll decline to give specific jobs, to leave them with some privacy ... but from 'on the floor' to senior exec management and a number in between.) The tour doesn't really give you a chance to interact with employees, but my day-to-day interactions are enough to tell the story. People are continuing to work very hard, but they are all committed to a shared vision. It's something I've seen many companies try to make happen, but it's the first time in my career I've actually witnessed it in action (and have watched it for more than a few years). So in answer to your question, yes, moral is still high & if possible, commitment is even higher than it was prior to pre-production. I could give numerous examples of 'above and beyond' including seeing Fremont Service working weekend before last, not because of service issues, but because they were helping out manufacturing to keep numbers up. And people were laughing, friendly, and engaged ... and getting cars out the door. They all know they're part of something big. I'm glad to have a front-row seat.�
Aug 27, 2014
radrick Thank you chickensevil & bonnie for the great information and your interest in helping us newbies learn about and enjoy the beginning of a beautiful journey in Tesla and beyond!�
Aug 27, 2014
lsnetman Thanks for that. if my Saturday, September 13 at noon delivery holds, you'll know where I'll be!�
Aug 27, 2014
karmamule Well I had the official "Yes you're delayed two weeks" conversation with my DS, with 26-september as my official new delivery date. *But*, he did say that production was definitely picking up the pace and the actual delay could be as little as a few days from my original 12-september. He anticipates Hobbes will be going into production the week of September 8th, although he was careful not to make any promises. I'm financing through them and he also said they'll do their best to avoid me having to re-apply if we go a few days over the 30.
My vacation week off is September 29th through October 3rd, so I'll still be in good shape if they can make the 26th. I'm just doing a staycation with lots of area driving and a few overnight trips planned (e.g. p-town and sampling the new Sagamore Bridge supercharger!) so while of course a bit disappointed I'm feeling upbeat overall and ready to keep myself distracted in the meantime. Just a few more weeks!�
Aug 27, 2014
chickensevil We were all new at one point so no worries!�
Aug 27, 2014
SoTX_WestTX Got the dreaded delay call from the DS today. Confirmed 6/16 (VIN: 52514), original delivery was Sept. 19 and now it's pushed back a week to Sept. 26. I'm picking up in Austin and was going to do it on the return from a work trip (i.e. didn't have to pay for the flight to Austin!
�
Aug 27, 2014
bonnie As a former boss used to say to me, "This ain't your first rodeo." Clearly you've run into delays in your lifetime and learned how to deal with it calmly. Two thumbs up.�
Aug 27, 2014
Lump Personally I wouldn't take delivery the last 5 days of Sept, sounds like service centers are going to be swamped trying like hell to get as many in the books before 3rd quarter ends, practically zero deliveries in North America in August thru the 3rd week of September to make up for.�
Aug 27, 2014
chickensevil If you are THAT far away from the pickup point won't they bring it to you? My understanding was of you were within a certain distance you go to the service center and outside that they still deliver to your house. Also, you could ask them to come pick you up, they will send a porter to give you a ride in to take delivery. The later I know I have heard of working as far away as a solid 100 miles or so (Rockville MD to Richmond, VA whatever that distance is)... You shouldn't have to pay for a rather expensive airfare to get the car...�
Aug 27, 2014
iadbound Sorry to hear about the delay. The word hasn't come from my DS yet, but I was scheduled later than you (Sept. 24). Thus, there is always the chance Tesla will catch-up by then.
I haven't scheduled anything else (other than electrical work). So there is no real deadline, like a 30-day financing window, that I have to worry about. Of course, eventually I will have to get the financing lined-up, but I'm waiting for now. In, addition, I plan on immediately dropping the car off for a clear bra installation and modesta or opticoat installation, but my detailer isn't too worried about an exact time yet.
In other words, I'm trying not to get to attached my delivery date.:wink:
As a side note, I'm waiting around for my current car too. I took it to the dealer back on July 30 to get two door locks fixed (I have had every lock go bad multiple times), an oil change and a tire rotation. It took them until August 20 to get my car back to me. Then I had the car a day when I realized that ants had invaded my car while they left it sitting outside for three weeks. The next day, I realized that they had damaged one of my doors while the car was being fixed. Of course, I brought back. It then took them two more days to decide they had damaged the door, and now my car is at the body shop, which will probably take another 3-5 days to complete. Once the car is back at the dealership, they have to do the detail work to get the ants out. I figure I won't see the car again until September 3 or 4, roughly five weeks after I first brought it in. At least I have a loaner, but my car has HOV access license plates and the loaner doesn't. Thus, I've been sitting in a lot more traffic. Simply put, I can't wait to get my Tesla already!�
Aug 27, 2014
shelbri I also got a note from my DS today, however, there was no indication of further delay. Keep in mind my original delivery date was Sept 12 but I had to delay due to work related travel. I did ask if there was a possibility of an earlier arrival (can't hurt to ask). My revised date is Sept 20 which DS indicated should not be an issue. He told me I am scheduled to move into Production week of Sept 8th but that it could be earlier so keep checking the dashboard (like I needed a reminder for that).�
Aug 28, 2014
karmamule @shelbri, same thing here: should go into production week of September 8th, but my dashboard checking will continue unabated in the meantime! I wouldn't be shocked if our cars are on the same transport vehicle heading to the east coast.
@iadbound, thanks! Keeping happiness independent of small delivery date shifts sounds like a wise idea for both of us. And, yikes on your current car's maintenance issues. That certainly must be adding to your Teslanticipation!�
Aug 28, 2014
Grayhawk @shelbri and @karmamule - I am still scheduled for the 18th of September - I live in the town next door to @shelbri hopefully my car will also be on the truck!�
Aug 28, 2014
karmamule Grayhawk, fingers crossed for us all!
The 18th of September would be an excellent date for me. I'll still plan for the 26th, and be delighted if it ends up on the 18th.�
Aug 28, 2014
iadbound You hit the nail on the head.�
Aug 28, 2014
Ed Chan I've been called with a delay -- scheduled for 9/19, now 9/27 for now... VIN 52917, delivery in So Cal...�
Aug 28, 2014
breser I confirmed my order on August 10th, 2014 and my Estimated Delivery was November, that shifted to Late October a few days after the confirmation and as of last night the Dashboard is saying Late September. I sent an email to my DS to find out what's going on because if this accelerated delivery date is accurate I need to start getting some things taken care of that I thought I didn't need to start for another month. Waiting on that reply now.
Whole thing seems rather strange with all the talk here about delays, but maybe the ramp up being discussed here is happening and that makes them comfortable enough to move up delivery dates.�
Aug 28, 2014
Evbwcaer I confirmed 6/16 and was originally told, "Late September," then it went to, "September," then I got an email and we arranged 9/17.
Now I am back to, "Late September" and my delivery guy is basically saying 9/17 is a long shot but not ruled out. He has not told me that I can reasonably expect a week or two, for example.
I live in Minneapolis and S85
Edit: VIN 49867�
Aug 28, 2014
S-dog I spoke to soon. got a call yesterday. Went from9-12 to "about two weeks longer". Oh well, good things come to those who wait:crying:�
Aug 28, 2014
seanahan Strange that one group is getting delays to the last part of september, and another group is getting bumped up to that same time frame. I'm having trouble getting the logic to work with that, even with the idea that they are rushing to complete a certain number by the end of september.
On a different note, I've developed a "pre-Tesla grin". Whenever I mention selling my current car, or having electrical work done, someone will ask me why, and I'll say because "I'm buying a Tesla", and despite trying to hold it back, but the time the word Tesla escaped my lips I have an enormous smile.�
Aug 28, 2014
SoTX_WestTX Yeah, I went back and forth on that one. I'm 300 miles from the SC's in Dallas and Austin, chose Austin b/c I have friends/family in town. On one hand, home delivery would be more convenient, but would lack the "event"-ness and instruction of taking delivery at a service center. Taking delivery in Austin would mean I get that, if anything is off they would have a day to fix it before I'd have to hit the road. But I was hesitant to take off on a 300 mile trip (requiring an RV park stop) on my 2nd day of ownership. I figured what the heck, right? It's meant to be driven, and I'd get to stop at the Waco Supercharger as my "first charge". (Is that a thing? haha)
One week is no big deal aside from the flight. Two would be workable. But later than that and I'd have to delay delivery until mid-November because my travel schedule has me out of town basically M-F for 5 straight weeks.
There are some days I forget I bought the darn thing, if you can believe that! At this point I almost don't even believe I'm going to be driving one in about a month, it's a little surreal.�
Aug 29, 2014
galangg I've had the same silly grin in reaction to the work I'm having done in my garage.�
Aug 29, 2014
chickensevil I trust you are telling this to your DS, right? Because I don't think they like to hold cars for that long and will likely give you pushback (even though it is their fault).
Have fun on your first roadtrip! As I look at the map it seems you will be isolated from have decent Supercharger access until 2015... Hopefully for your sake they install the superchargers in your area sooner so you can drive your car long distances with ease!�
Aug 29, 2014
hobbes If they are working a lot of overtime toward the end of the quarter, maybe they�ll take a week off at the beginning of Sep? That would also give them some time for fine tuning the new production line. That would fit with some deliveries being pushed back from early Sep, and at the same time if they know they can produce at a higher rate now, they could deliver cars scheduled for Octorber earlier.�
Aug 29, 2014
SoTX_WestTX Yeah, I've mentioned it, but I'll probably put it in writing with the exact dates just so there isn't any confusion. As for being isolated, luckily I'm not actually big on driving. I only drive to Austin (6 hours...we measure distances in hours in Texas�
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