Jul 5, 2016
ohmman It's anecdotal, but my feeling is that it could be quantifiable if there were metrics. It's difficult to collect data to validate my statement, though, so that probably won't happen anytime soon. This forum has quite a bit of discussion in both the Model S and X forums about it. I also have two quarter end cars.. cough.
I requested that my X delivery be delayed so that I didn't receive a quarter end car. They did delay it, but only a few days. It was still a March build - and it has required a bit of tweaking. There are still outstanding issues with the doors, interior panels, windshield, etc. Sounds like the April deliveries didn't run into as many problems.
My guess as to why this might be occurring is not that the robots are "tired". It's that the QC/QA team has to lower standards in order to reach the production levels demanded by management (which in turn are demanded by shareholders).�
Jul 5, 2016
JeffK At 3:00 AM on Friday, April 29th, 2016, the first "flawless" Model X rolled off the factory line... You needed a May car
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Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner The minor tweaks you are talking about in each of your responses is negligible to production. 90% of the changes in my MS has been software - aside from the front fascia.
There really hasn't been any meaningful production hardware changes since 2013.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner Name the tweaks.
You guys are having weird problems with your MS's. Door panels and windshields?
Sounds like quality control issues.
Production, Quality Control, Production, Design, Delivery, etc. are all part of Tesla, however they are clear and distinct departments.�
Jul 5, 2016
JeffK Here's a list (doesn't cover the 2016 changes)
Tesla Model S Electric Car: Changes From 2012 Through 2015 (UPDATED)�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner I'm not talking about improvement type changes. I'm talking about hardware errors that slow down production.�
Jul 5, 2016
Az_Rael Except all those battery changes 60, 70, 85, 90, 75. All of those are hardware changes that required new batteries to be designed and ramped up. Sure, installing them into the car probably wasn't much different, but the battery factory had to change all its tooling, etc.�
Jul 5, 2016
JeffK In addition to improvement changes in the car itself which require retooling, there are production level changes that happen constantly in a kaizen type continual improvement environment. They've mentioned that besides the car itself, there're a lot of technologies and room for improvement that can go into the manufacturing process to make production faster and have better quality.
When you ask owners of the older Model S to compare their cars to the newer Model S (even before the new 2016 model) the common response is that they notice the difference in build quality. The trend for the Model S is increased production rate and increased quality but achieving both these things involves a fair amount of work.
In 2015 Elon said
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Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner Yes, I understand, but that has nothing to do with the topic at hand or any point that I'm making.
The reason that Tesla won't be able to provide their M3 deliveries on time is the subject matter. Production is not holding up deliveries. Delivery is holding up delivery. .�
Jul 5, 2016
Az_Rael They are related, though. Deliveries are held up because production ramped up so late in the quarter.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner What? That makes no sense. Production and Deliveries are 2 totally different things. Tesla produced 14K cars and could only deliver 10K. I don't care when the production took place....they didn't cause Deliveries to fail.
I've posted links.
Tesla increases Q2 production by 20% but falls short of deliveries
Production is much better. Tesla has mainly fallen short of deliveries by what they posted on wall street. There are at least 4 thousand Teslas sitting somewhere and they can't seem to deliver them.�
Jul 5, 2016
JeffK They are sitting on a boat to Asia and Europe. They certainly aren't sitting at the factory. Transit over the Ocean takes time and that's unavoidable with production so late. The transit time simply overlapped when the quarter ended.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner Do you have a link? I am a shareholder. I could care less where the cars are. Tesla said that they will deliver 17K cars. And they didn't. Sooooo..... therefore..... the stock price goes down. Investors don't care about excuses.
You have a company like chevy that says .... We will deliver 500K cars..... and they do.
Now you have Tesla say that they will deliver 17K cars in the same timeframe...... and they don't.
It does not matter if the cars are on a boat or in outerspace. They should have delivered the cars or not made the promise / projection to the investors.�
Jul 5, 2016
Az_Rael From your own link: "Tesla added that half it saw a huge production ramp towards the end of Q2 resulting in half of the quarter�s production occurring in the final four weeks"
So fully HALF of the cars were produced in the final four weeks. So it then follows that deliveries will be delayed because the cars weren't even finished until the final 4 weeks of the quarter.
They also stated all the missing deliveries were "in transit" in your link. So they aren't sitting at the factory waiting to be delivered, they are on trucks/boats, etc.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner Wait...I see what you are saying.�
Jul 5, 2016
Jleafs Sure, but very inter-related departments that require a great deal of coordination and communication to successfully work as a whole.
Design choices may cause supplier issues, which in turn affects production rate if parts are short (see Model X). Poor production processes can increase the burden on quality control, which may increase recalls which in turn affects cash flow and expansion financing, and so on and so on - everything affects everything.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner What I wanted were the facts. I have them now. I was wondering who's fault these delayed deliveries were.�
Jul 5, 2016
jkk_ Tesla's. I'm sure this will be quite unpopular statement but it is their responsibility to manage their pipelines in such a fashion that they can meet their targets. Both quality and timing targets. Quality part we'll have to wait for the customers receive their products but history isn't too promising. Timing seems to have failed.�
Jul 5, 2016
ohmman We should probably steer this back to Model 3. There's an investor section here on TMC that is a great place to discuss the production shortfall as it pertains to TSLA.�
Jul 5, 2016
Model 3 What I was talking about was - pr. the Elon quote JeffK made - about hardware changes. The software changes was not the topic.
So no new better rear DU? No dual motors? No new batteries? No new panoramic roof? No "NG seats"? No autopilot hardware? ... just to mention a few.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner You still aren't getting it. You are just arguing.�
Jul 5, 2016
grashelm Wow do you really have 934 posts since Apr 27? Impressive!�
Jul 5, 2016
JeffK I have a really bad OCD problem and I'm pretty opinionated (logically based opinions for the most part).
I've loved and dreamed about electric cars since I was little. The thought that I'll finally be able to afford one is terribly exciting. The very idea that Tesla is actually going to ramp up production to 500,000 cars in 2018 or even if it takes until 2019, whatever. It means that during my lifetime I'll see safe, awesome, electric cars on the road (besides all the Model Ss I see now everyday).
...But seriously the OCD thing is a problem, I should get help.�
Jul 5, 2016
grashelm I understand and share your enthusiasm. I on the other hand have a laziness problem...I contemplate responding to far more posts than I actually do.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner We all should get a support group.
I suppose the group is this forum.�
Jul 6, 2016
Model 3 Ok. Then tell me what I'm not "getting"?
I refuted your assertion:
with examples of meaningful production hardware changes since 2013 that would effect the production-line when the changes is done (and that is what we are talking about?)
And I refuted you assertion that I was talking about software changes, something I know I did not. I even pointed to the Elon quote JeffK gave and that I was referring to about the same changes.
Whatever replies like this I'm now responding to does not furthering the debate, so unless I get some meaningful replies it's EOD from me.�
Jul 6, 2016
Jleafs That is exactly right, as obvious as it may sound. Any delays are the responsibility of Tesla as a whole. To say it's the fault of department X or Y based off a news article is a simplistic understanding of "facts" that actually provide very little insight.�
Jul 6, 2016
Garlan Garner That's why I'm asking the question in the forum. Maybe the replies would provide some more intricate insight.�
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