May 4, 2016
pmich80 If they do it right they should be able to satisfy about 200,000 units in 3 quarters which is almost half of the reservations. Note that not all reservations are from the US so everyone might be available for the tax credit at 100%. Here in Canada we got over 40,000 reservations so it's looking good for you guys.�
May 4, 2016
MostlyStock Elon just said 1M vehicle production capacity by 2020 from Fremont factory on the Q1 call. Has Elon gone insane?�
May 4, 2016
pmich80
All the right kind of crazy if you ask me...haha�
May 4, 2016
HazyArc14 He stated that he believes it could be achieved but that it may not be advisable to do so.�
May 4, 2016
Vitold I think it's more to do with initial Model X quality issues than anything else.�
May 4, 2016
JohnSnowNW Huh...looks like I'll have to buy my way out of the Leaf lease...�
May 4, 2016
SageBrush Thanks for the reminder, but why do you think so ?�
May 4, 2016
Vitold Elon said on the call Tesla have made production hires that will be announced. My guess is that he is doing his, now classic, move of taking the lead because "no one else can do it".
If you recall just recently VP of vehicle engineering left as well. Therefore it's not two by three execs.�
May 4, 2016
igotzzoom I'm hoping to get mine by May 2018. If that happens, I'll be happy.�
May 4, 2016
EXOTIC1 huh?
the announcement did nothing
the stock dropped $10 per share today�
May 4, 2016
timk225 500,000 cars by 2018... I'm eager to see them do well and expand capacity, but this? Damn.
That is a hell of a lot of work to do, and I know nearly nothing about all the stuff that has to come together to make this possible.
Maybe they should have said 2019 instead of 2018, for some breathing room, but maybe they know things we don't yet. Maybe they bought an east coast manufacturing facility to have a second assembly line running.
Maybe they are really cracking the whip on the suppliers, giving them an all or nothing scenario, and how bad do they want to make lots of money?
We will see, I hope it works out as well as they are predicting.�
May 4, 2016
BluestarE3 Well, Elon did ask Ashlee Vance if he thought so.
�
May 4, 2016
ttupper92618 After hours it is up.�
May 4, 2016
Genshi I think the larger implication for a lot of the buyers is that a: they can plan accordingly and expect to receive a car between 1/1/18 and 1/1/19, and b: that the full tax rebate for US customers could extend to ALL of the queue as it currently stands if they time it right. If not, they could still potentially clear the whole queue at 100% or 50% of the tax rebate.
I'm guessing that alone might cut a significant percentage of the potential cancellations. I'm guessing I'm not the only one that reserved a Model ? to try to get that credit before it's gone. Not to say I won't still buy the car if I can't get it, but it's a much harder sell for people who can only barely consider a $35k car, but consider $27,500 manageable.�
May 4, 2016
SageBrush I don't think Musk ever chatted with Scotty from the Enterprise. Paraphrased ...
"I always add 50% to my time estimates. I have to protect my reputation as a miracle worker."�
May 4, 2016
EXOTIC1 it is ? i'm not seeing a recovery of $10 after hours
Tesla�s Losses Widen on Lower-Than-Expected Deliveries�
May 4, 2016
ttupper92618 Elon sets crazy goals - that is by now a well understood aspect of his character. It's better to fail at something totally audacious and land on the shores of awesome... Than to shoot for good and land on mediocre.�
May 4, 2016
ttupper92618 It's been all over the place after hours. Currently up over $5. At one point it was up almost $13.
It should be interesting in early trade tomorrow.�
May 4, 2016
BluestarE3 Scotty was a pessimist... always reluctant to push his warp drive engines. If Kirk were like Musk, he would have fired Scotty.�
May 4, 2016
dhanson865 Too high, they max out at 500,000 a year in Fremont in 2018, meaning 125,000 a quarter max. No way they'll do 200,000 in a quarter at Fremont.
I won't comment on accuracy of the phaseout numbers, They may get out Model 3s in Q4, 2017 to offset your overly large Q4 2018 so the rest may be a wash. Depends on when the 200,000 trigger occurs.�
May 5, 2016
electracity I expect a 50 kwh pack, and possibly no physical space for anything bigger. I'm hoping at launch they have an option for a bigger pack.
I have no doubt they could offer a 100 kwh pack today on the S/X. So IMO they do hold things back. Did they really just finish LED headlights before release? More likely they timed the new model S front end to give a boost after the model 3 reveal and the Model X launch to bring some love back to that car.�
May 5, 2016
Vitold It's widely predicted that Tesla will move to larger battery, that is slightly taller and wider than current 18650 which will make battery pack area smaller while retaining or even increasing capacity.�
May 5, 2016
Alketi Musk has said that the Model 3 batteries should be 10-15% more energy dense and 10-15% larger and taller, yielding a net of ~30% more energy density per cell.
Also, the assembled battery packs are all the same physical size -- the lower spec'd ones just have some "blanks" instead of cells.
This whole video is worth the watch, but it's queued to the point where Musk talks about the Gigafactory improvements:
�
May 5, 2016
electracity What was the date Musk talked about gigafactory improvements?�
May 5, 2016
182RG Agreed. I'm hoping that when my turn in the barrel comes up for a Model 3, technology will be in place for a 75 kWh option yielding 300+ miles of range.�
May 5, 2016
Alketi It's at the 7min mark in the video I linked. The timestamp on the video says Q2 2012, which doesn't seem right to me. I didn't think Musk was talking about specific Gigafactory and Model 3 details four years ago, but I could be wrong. Also, if it was actually four years ago, then there certainly could be additional improvements now.�
May 5, 2016
Zythryn Previously I had little concern about the SuperCharger network.
Now, those concerns are working their way to the front.
Tesla MUST get back on track with opening superchargers to support this many Tesla vehicles.�
May 5, 2016
jbcarioca Warren honors Ben Graham. GAAP vs non-GAAP is less material than free operational cash flow. With a Tesla growth rate and investment pace it is not easy to make those judgements, hence a Ben Graham would take a pass. OTOH Apple would now be pretty good.
I bought TSLA despite poor "value" as I was taught.�
May 5, 2016
BluestarE3 I believe Elon said during the Model 3 reveal that Tesla is planning to double the number of Superchargers this year. Although the huge influx of Model 3's will certainly increase traffic at Supercharging stations, I don't view this as necessarily a chokepoint for the successful operation of this car. The primary fueling station is your home charger. I don't envision having to use a Supercharger very often and I suspect this holds true for many other prospective Model 3 owners as well. Yes, there will be a subset of owners who will have to rely on Superchargers, such as apartment dwellers or those who make frequent long-distance journeys, but it's not going to be anywhere near 400,000 net additional load on the network.
Also, if Supercharging is not enabled by default for the base model (last I heard, this is still being debated internally), those who opted out of paying extra for this service will not be tempted to visit and tie up Supercharging stations just to check out fast charging. Again, this will reduce the potential demand on this resource.�
May 5, 2016
jsrawa While I agree with you I think supercharging will be an option which would help to lessen the load somewhat slightly while they build out because some people just may not need it.
Add on top of it all that superchargers are designed for distance travel not local charging and I think we will all be fine. All in all I agree with Bluestars comments above.�
May 5, 2016
tomas for those speculating about battery and range, suggest you read this thread that has been active a while for many posts and much speculation on the topic of battery size for the 3.�
May 5, 2016
dauger Listening to the 16Q1 call yesterday, I felt I could hear in his voice that he's weighing probabilities for each of the components of this new even more aggressive plan. He knows 100% of the plan will not occur 100% on time, but it doesn't have to; he and the Tesla inner circle seem to have run the numbers with an aggressive set of milestones (for suppliers, hires, logistics, etc.) and it basically seems to add up if they quickly address specific issues as they come up.
That's why this move especially seems like poker to me, because he doesn't yet have every card but they're coming. The poker metaphor would be it's part way through a hand of something-like 7-card stud and he has two pair now so he shoots for a full house, but he knows the other players' (incumbent automakers) hands are far weaker than two pair. So it's not a question of whether he wins, it's how big he wins. A "win" is more long-range BEVs on the road.
After the Model 3 reservation count exploded, we essentially had a roll call of incubments' BEV plans, and I still think the incumbents should be ashamed. (No answer to the Supercharger network, the price and time-to-market of their future 200-mile BEV, even the volume (Chevy Bolt will be at most 30-50k a year), etc.). I'm sure Elon is paying attention too, and he's thinking: if the incumbents don't build enough long-range BEVs for the world, then Tesla's gonna have to instead.
Meanwhile the short-sellers say Elon's winning streak has gotta end, and don't want to run those numbers the way Elon runs them, to rationalize repeatedly shorting TSLA.
Elon already went through the darkest days of both SpaceX and Tesla, so he knows risk, and this move, while risky in an absolute sense, isn't as risky to the end goal as those dark days were.�
May 5, 2016
tomas There are only 2 risks: 1) the market won't provide the capital needed to achieve the strategy, or 2) reservations erode and buyers go elsewhere. Those risks both seem quite small right now, but can increase if progress is not demonstrated. Thinking about it from that perspective, it is the perfect time to try to accelerate the schedule.
Lots of people seem to conflate day-to-day stock price into this equation. Only relevant as far as it impacts ability to raise further capital through stock offerings, and attract/retain talent.�
May 5, 2016
Model 3 Well, just say that they do meet their targets... Then the production rate at Fremont is at or close to capacity, so they will have to build one or more additional factories to continue the ramp to 1 million in 2020. And they will be preparing for Model Y. And they will build out the superchargers. And they will have to build out their service-centers to service all this new cars.... So yes, they will still "lose" money in 2018, even if all goes as planed. And they will "lose" money if they just get to 400k, or 350.
To not "lose" money in 2018 I think that they will have to say "Ok, we will produce 500k this year, and in each of the next 5 years - no more ramp up. And forget Model Y, RoadsterNG, Tesla Truck and Gen-IV/Model C or whatever it will be called."�
May 5, 2016
brianman Elon directly and explicitly stated this is not the case. Specifically, he said that it could be done with just the existing Fremont factory + GF1 but that it might be not advisable. FYI, since you seemed to miss that on the CC.�
May 5, 2016
TaoJones Indeed. On top of which, 2/3 of homes in the US have garages, the vast majority of which can support an HPWC and/or 50A service. Put another way, there are 400 garages for every 1 gas station. And the vast majority of Model S owners don't even use SCs. Lastly, Tesla's commitment to DENSITY as well as to DISTANCE offers the opportunity to stay ahead of demand in those few counties, relatively speaking, that are saturated. And none of the foregoing accounts for technological advances both in charging efficiency and in charging *delivery*. See trials currently in the UK for embedded road surface charging and the like.�
May 5, 2016
Pdub2015 Perhaps you were thinking of Amazon?�
May 5, 2016
nexsuperne101 The massive increase in superchargers would be nice, but on average I only drive 150 miles a day, so apart from if I wanted to charge for free, I wouldn't need them. The UK is only 1000 miles from top to bottom, so not a big place.�
May 5, 2016
houdini Tesla Leases 1 Million Square Feet Of Warehouse Space Branching Out From Bay Area
Sources are reporting that the site will be used primarily for warehouse space and storage. Up until now, Tesla has packed its Fremont factory full, and the focus there needs to be solely on manufacturing
Tesla Leases 1 Million Square Feet Of Warehouse Space Branching Out From Bay Area�
May 5, 2016
ecarfan Yes, in the Earnings Call, Elon said he believed the Fremont factory could produce a million cars/year but it might not be "wise", and explained that the global logistics of shipping so many cars to overseas customers wasn't cost effective, it would make more sense to build new factories (vehicle production and Gigafactory) on the "continents" where the customers were located, specifically in Europe and China.�
May 5, 2016
brianman Already known. Relevance?�
May 5, 2016
brianman I found the way he approached this answer to be confusing. As I recall it, the questioner was trying to get at -- for North America is the Fremont factory (+ GF1) enough? I think it was already well known that for off-continent deliveries, additional factories were kind of a given.�
May 5, 2016
mhan00 It will be an insanely impressive accomplishment if they can do even half of that. I will be in awe if they pull off 500k. I'm pulling for Tesla.�
May 5, 2016
HazyArc14 Correct me if I'm wrong but I think that he stated Europe and China, an obvious given, but also stated the need for another factory in North America besides Fremont in the long run.�
May 5, 2016
Model 3 You are right, I should have said "ramp up past the 1 million in 2020 (and if he is wise, and we know he is, even for this)".�
May 5, 2016
HazyArc14 This is a quote from Musk about a second factory in North America.
"And particularly as we saturate on Fremont volume in terms of satisfying demand in North America, just to satisfy demand in North America, for our future product lineup we're going to need more than one plant in North America, just to satisfy North America demand."�
May 5, 2016
brianman Duplicate thread.
Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020�
May 5, 2016
brianman I guess it depends on how you define "long run". I heard him explicitly indicate that it's not required but likely advisable to put more factories in N/A by 2020. Perhaps I misheard or misunderstood.�
May 5, 2016
voip-ninja I think you seriously over-estimate how much super charger demand there is with current owners.... and also over-estimate how many Model 3's will be sold with super-charging which will almost definitely be an expensive option.
I have talked to people who are convinced there need to be as many rapid charging stations as gas stations and it's patently ridiculous. Your house with its connection to the electrical grid is the "gas station" for 99% of owners.
Super charging needing to grow is primarily to make long distance travel in an EV less painful... and that's about it.�
May 5, 2016
Topher Personally, I don't care to bet against people who causally talk about buying ICBMs.�
May 5, 2016
Ludus Sorry, I looked for it but didn't think of looking under Model 3 which didn't seem directly related to the news which was about overall production targets and capex.�
May 5, 2016
Topher They just leased another building 1M ft�. What is going in there?
Thank you kindly.�
May 5, 2016
ecarfan As I understood it, Elon was answering the question in two ways: is the Fremont factory potentially capable of producing a million cars/year (answer: probably) and would it make sense to produce a million cars/year in the Fremont factory (answer: probably not the most efficient thing to do, better to add factories where the overseas customers were, meaning Europe and Asia).�
May 5, 2016
pmich80 100,000 by the end of 2017? wow that's awesome. I ordered at 10:15 am EST on the east coast so I'm probably in the top 30,000 orders placed. Considering i get bumped by employees, previous owners and those on the west coast, I assume I'll get mine around 120,000th in the order list which puts me right around the beginning of 2018. I'll be happy with that. Make sure any kinks are worked out.�
May 5, 2016
Grendal Agreed. Building out production and getting the Model 3 into hands of customers as fast as possible while maintaining a high level of quality should trump the need for more Superchargers. If they just keep building them at the pace they mentioned at the Model 3 rollout I'm sure it will be fine.
Let's make it clear:
The wait times at Superchargers is currently a non-problem.
It is unlikely to become a problem before and even after the Model 3 reaches production for a while.
There is no evidence that it will become a problem even after the Model 3 reaches large production numbers. It certainly might become a big problem at some point. That point is completely unknown.
On the other hand:
There is an enormous need to get the Model 3 into production as fast as possible. It is a current problem that needs and in some ways has been addressed.�
May 5, 2016
Steepler2k I'm more concerned about Service Center access than Supercharger access. Then again, I usually drive less than 40 miles/day and have a garage for easy home charging.�
May 5, 2016
Waiting4M3 How often does one need to visit a service center?
Regarding charging, I will mostly drive ~10 miles a day, > 50 miles a day about once per week, and >100 miles in a day maybe once a month, so even a 110V overnight trickle charge in my garage may just work well enough for me, really could not care any less about supercharger availability.�
May 5, 2016
SageBrush You are probably safe in Maine, but my house in NM has a flat roof!�
May 5, 2016
BluestarE3 But it was just to acquire the rockets, right? I don't think warheads were included in the deal.�
May 5, 2016
Az_Rael Ah, but when you NEED to visit the service center, you don't want long waits, especially if your car is in need of a repair. People on the S/X forums talk about having several week waits to get in in some areas.�
May 5, 2016
SageBrush The wait times should be seen in the context of how impaired the car was.
Cannot drive is a whole lot different than a squeak�
May 5, 2016
Topher When I spent time, during the cold war, living at the top of the tallest building in the vicinity of three high value military targets, I came to understand the concept of overkill. I couldn't care less if the ICBM Elon (hypothetically) drops on my head has a warhead or not.
Thank you kindly.�
May 5, 2016
Zythryn Please don't equate my concern with people that suggest we need as many SC as gas stations. I have been arguing against that fact for years.
It isn't just about wait time (which do exist in some areas at some peak times).
It is more an issue of locations.
Tesla, every year, sets out a plan for SCs. And every year, they fall short by 30%-50%. This year, in the U.S., there have been a terrible lack of new SCs.
We were supposed to have one in DeMoines in 2014, then 2015, now 2016. Same for Minneapolis/St.Paul.
These very well may get built this year, but I have lost confidence in Tesla's ability to reach their goal for the year.
This wasn't a huge deal with the roll out planned to reach 500,000 in 2020.
But for 2018? They need to start meeting their self stated goals.
Both for coverage, and crowding.�
May 5, 2016
Waiting4M3 With 500K new EV drivers coming in 2 years, there might be larger incentive for others to partner with Tesla to build more SC locations?�
May 5, 2016
model3fan That stood out to me too... I wonder what that means in terms of HUD�
May 5, 2016
Toolsmack How many of you model 3 reservation holders would be willing to increase their deposit for a faster ramp up. I think I would. Now what if putting down a $5k deposit would move you up the priority list and $10k even higher. Would you do it? That I would definitely do.�
May 5, 2016
model3fan Here's a good play by play of the earnings call for anyone interested (link for mobile)
Elon Musk grows more aggressive on Tesla growth: Live blog recap�
May 5, 2016
voip-ninja According to consumer reports, quite a lot!�
May 5, 2016
JeffK I don't think it'll work like that. I mean there a matter of getting all the suppliers in a row and that's not something Tesla can control by throwing money at it. Also, I'd like them to still take some time and care with validation of the manufacturing process and get the Model 3 dialed in (defect free) before shipping orders. In the Q1 call Elon said it was as recent as last Friday they had their first Model X produced with zero defects. I want nothing but good press for Tesla so I hope they hold themselves to the highest standards with Model 3. This is their make it or break it car and it's the car that's going to change the world.�
May 5, 2016
heysteveh The short-sellers will love to claim Elon is bluffing. I say, no, he's not bluffing; don't bet against Tesla Motors. But the short's won't listen.
Isn't it exciting to watch the highest-stakes Poker game around?[/QUOTE]
Well said!�
May 5, 2016
Bimbels I agree about the service centers. My closest is 1h15 away - fine for annual service but not ideal. And definitely not fine if you need to go in for anything else - which I've had to do. It will turn some potential buyers away.�
May 5, 2016
SageBrush During that call EM mentioned that 93% of reservations were from first time Tesla'ites.
Presuming 400k reservations, this puts something of a ceiling on priority reservations at
400,000*0.07 = 28,000�
May 5, 2016
Steepler2k Not currently an owner, and it makes me very nervous for the 3. The closest service center to me is over 2 hours and in another state. I think I'm glad I'm on the east coast and down the list so hopefully most kinks are worked out by the time my number comes up.�
May 5, 2016
Bimbels It's interesting because before we got our tesla (husband replaced his car) we were considering replacing my car. I was hell bent on sticking to cars with dealerships on the island we live on, since the alternatives were 35 minutes away. My current car falls into the off-island category and it is too much of a pain - then again my car is 9 years old and is starting to need more "attention."
There are definitely many holes in Teslas service area right now. While the regular maintenance of a Tesla is significantly less than an ICE car, those new to EVs or those not willing to take the plunge probably won't be able to get beyond that, initially anyway.
That said, I doubt this is being overlooked by Tesla. I would not be surprised if a service center opens closer to me between now and when I get my model 3.�
May 5, 2016
McHoffa They were at 115k worldwide partway into the reveal. I'd say if you ordered at 10:15, you're probably in the first 10k in the US. What number were you in line at your store? Multiply that by 100 (about the # of US Tesla stores). Give or take a few thousand (depending on how fast orders were going through at your store compared to others) that is about your place in line. My store had connection issues, so even though I was #27 waiting outside, I didn't order until 10:30am, and was actually about #20 in my store to order (other line was slower).
If Musk says they hope to deliver 100,000 to 200,000 by the end of 2017, I guarantee we'd both get ours next year even if they don't come close to meeting their goals. If they do meet that target, I would probably even get my wife's next year, though like I said, I'd hold off on delivery of that until just after Jan 1 so I could get a second tax credit.�
May 6, 2016
brianman John, not Elon.
Tesla Q1'16 Earnings Conference Call: Full Transcript�
May 6, 2016
sleepyhead I am pretty sure you can claim 2 tax credits in 1 year.
Unless, of course you don't have the tax liability needed to get it, since it is non-refundable...�
May 6, 2016
McHoffa right... we probably wouldn't be able to get back $15k in one year, but we'd definitely get back $7500 each year�
May 6, 2016
AustinPowers Sorry, but wrong. Half of the incentives are paid by the German state, i.e. the taxpayer, the other half is payed by the car companies themselves. So Tesla would only subsidize us Model 3 buyers (as Model S and X are not eligable for the incentives anyway).�
May 6, 2016
AustinPowers Stock market seems to agree. Haven't seen such a massive three day drop in TSLA price in months
Fortunately though, I am a long-term investor
And the prospect of possibly getting my maxed out Model 3 a little earlier is really something.�
May 6, 2016
AustinPowers Sounds a little like
...but apart from better sanitation and medicine and education and irrigation and public health and roads and a freshwater system and baths and public order... what have the Romans ever done for us?
�
May 6, 2016
ummgood Based on the Austin store (other stores are different) they were processing about 100 reservations/1 hour. So if you were reserved within an hour of opening you'll be in the first 10k orders. I was number 106 in Austin so I am guessing I am somewhere between 10k to 15k orders. With that said I am assuming that I'll be one of the first 50k to get my car because of previous owners/employees. I do plan on highly optioning my car so that might get me closer to the front but we shall see. Either way I am guessing 1st half of '18 for my car.�
May 6, 2016
N5329K Romani ite domum!
Robin�
May 6, 2016
Waiting4M3 I wonder how this would affect Tesla-specific insurance. 500K cars on the road with AP capability, still a small fraction of total # of cars on the road, but maybe big enough for someone to offer a cheaper rate specifically for the AP-enabled cars if it's indeed safer? Will the insurance industry have enough time/data to prove this out? Maybe Tesla does, maybe they can get in the insurance business once they have enough cars on the road?�
May 6, 2016
Dan Detweiler I hope so. Unfortunately, I think many people will initially see this as a liability when it comes to safety. I think they will see it as an excuse to become even more distracted from the road. Hopefully the statistics will play out that it is much safer than human input and minds will change. Time will tell I guess.
Dan�
May 6, 2016
Vitold It makes sense, however, from what I read the deal reached was between German car companies and the government. There was no mention of Toyota, Tesla, etc. Do you have a link to a good German article about the deal?�
May 6, 2016
Topher It should already be lower. See:
Spectacular Tesla Model S crash after flying 82+ft in the air shows importance of a large crumple zone
[spoiler: all 5 passengers exited without help, and serious but not life-threatening injuries]
Thank you kindly.�
May 6, 2016
gregincal In this article they say that the subsidy is only available if the manufacturer agrees to the 50/50 deal, and that Daimler, BMW and Volkswagen have already agreed.�
May 6, 2016
Waiting4M3 I do wonder if the AP does make things safer or just allows drivers to be more careless.
Another area where what reality may differ from initial perception, I also wonder if proliferation of 200 mile range EVs make people more or less likely to go to a public charging station vs just in their homes. If one will most likely never run out of range within a day, then why bother finding a public charging station? If this is the case then will the roll out of Model 3 still be a significant driver for charging station infrastructure development? Or does it still matter at all, like the battery swap on the fly idea. In the end not many people needed it.�
May 6, 2016
Alketi That is most definitely a concern. I'm very pro AP and will absolutely be getting the option, but as Don Norman (user experience expert) pointed out recently, there's a significant danger relying on something that's not intended to be foolproof. People tend to get comfortable with technology when they observe it working and pay less and less attention to what they're doing. Something that works 95% of the time will still fail 1 out of every 20 times. I think Tesla's been fortunate that there hasn't been an AP-caused accident (or worse, death) as it would be headlines all over the media and potentially set the technology back. Same concerns for Google, but they're actually testing their AP under much stricter conditions (professional drivers).
Having said that, I believe all cars will eventually have AP (long term) and be AP-safety enabled (medium term). We just need to make it through the "transition" without any catastrophic incidents.�
May 6, 2016
ZachShahan Elon has stated that the S & X will always have the more advanced tech, be the premium models.�
May 6, 2016
Bimbels Can you cite a source? Because I thought he said the Model 3 would have the newest suite of sensors - which would be more advanced than at least current S/X. They may both end up with the same sensors - if so how will the S/X be "better?"�
May 6, 2016
Drivin I am sure that the newer models of the S will get an upgrade on the sensors.�
May 6, 2016
Bimbels Yes, I agree. But how will the technology of the S/X will always be "more advanced?" That is what I was replying to.�
May 6, 2016
Drivin They will add more sensors and than the E gets.
The E will have more than the older S/X
If not, Tesla just adds a couple software features and says "voila, marketing hype achieved: it is more advanced"�
May 6, 2016
Bimbels Hmm. Well I also thought Elon said in the past that the Model 3 will have autonomous capability. Lofty goal but I think he did say it. I don't see how you can skimp on that. but I guess we'll see.�
May 6, 2016
Bruin1996 Has anyone heard of any rumors hat we will be able to upgrade the sensors in our first generation Autopilot S/X? That would be nice! I am a bit fearful of Elon overpromising and under delivering with his latest model 3 announcements. I would have preferred he kept his old plan and then surprised us by being ahead of schedule. Better for stock price this way too.�
May 6, 2016
JeffK That wouldn't even make sense... There's a certain number of sensors you'd need for autonomous driving, there's not really a need to add "more sensors" just for the hell of it.
Let's pretend for a minute that they offered autonomous driving in the Model 3 would the Model S be "better" at autonomous driving??? That's a crazy notion and would lead to lawsuits...�
May 6, 2016
Drivin Well, I think that is a big thing to pretend but, the E could be level 3 and the S/X could be level 4.�
May 6, 2016
Bimbels Nah. That's not Elon's style.�
May 6, 2016
Drivin Well, his style was to have folding seats in the X and a 300 mile range on the S, but sometimes reality counts more than style�
May 6, 2016
ecarfan Elon is very clear that the goal is for all Tesla cars to be able to do autonomous driving. That will take more sensors than the current production cars have. Once Tesla starts producing cars with the full set of sensors needed for autonomous driving, all Tesla models -- S, X, 3, etc. -- will get the same sensors to meet that goal.
Older cars with less than the full set of sensors needed for autonomous driving will not be upgradable, just like the pre-September 2014 cars that had no forward facing camera or radar are not upgradable.
The currently produced S and X will never be able to do full autonomous driving (meaning full hands off from start to destination on all roads). They will be limited to AutoPilot on freeways and highways. They will get much better at that over time with future software improvements, but they will never do full autonomous driving.�
May 6, 2016
Bimbels Elon has been talking for quite a while about full autonomy. In fact just the other day he said in 10 years the question will be if you buy an autonomous car, or not. Which is why I don't think he would limit the Model 3. That is why I say I don't think it's his style.�
May 6, 2016
Drivin Elon has said a lot of things, besides 2 years from now is not 10 years from now.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Model 3 2025 edition had full autonomy.�
May 6, 2016
Bimbels Well obviously neither of us know....but we'll see.�
May 6, 2016
JeffK The suggestion was that in 10 years there would be so many autonomous cars from all different manufactures that you'd be deciding between a fully autonomous car and one without full autonomy (but with safety features like AEB and lane assistance). Nearly all the major manufacturers are pushing for autonomous cars or at minimum some level of autonomy.�
May 6, 2016
Topher In order to have autonomous driving, Tesla needs driving instructors; us. The ? will have as good auto-pilot as they can give it (and there is no point in having two versions). How much they charge will depend, on what it takes to get it in most cars whose drivers will use it.
Thank you kindly.�
May 6, 2016
Alketi Latest from Elon:
"Ya think those of us who ordered pre reveal will see it late 2017?"
Elon: I think so
Elon Musk on Twitter�
May 7, 2016
Gilzo If (big if I know) this is the case, I need to get my butt in gear and start saving. I initially told my wife 2- 3 years until we get the 3....and got the eye roll for saying it. Now....she just may make me talk to the hand.�
May 7, 2016
electracity Unless you are an employee or current Tesla customer, I doubt you will see your car in 2017. I would put the chance of any model 3 in 2017 at 50/50. It will take a lot of luck and work to produce significant volume of M3 in 2018.�
May 7, 2016
Drivin I am sure we will "see it"
Whether we can buy one is a different issue.�
May 7, 2016
Gilzo Agree....that's why I said "big if"�
May 7, 2016
Model 3 I see a lot of disbelieve in that Tesla can reach their targets here. Her is an article that argues that it isn't that unreasonable that a lot of people seems to think:
Tesla Motors, Inc.'s 500,000 Unit Build Plan: Realistic or Not? -- The Motley Fool
�
May 7, 2016
Drivin '
From that article:
The author is missing the point. It has nothing to do with saying ramping is a company weakness.
What is fair to say is that the company weakness is the ability to forecast - they missed forecasts 2 out of 3 years and those were the years that they should have had more experience based on previous results and more market info on demand.
Now they are forecasting even more aggressive growth and people are supposed to have more confidence in that? LOL.
Overpromising and under delivering is not a strength
Rah rah article written by someone who is long TSLA.
What a surprise.�
May 7, 2016
Bimbels Personally IDGAF if they launch 6 months late. In a few years no one else will either.�
May 7, 2016
Gilzo
Hope is a very dangerous and beautiful word. I think many of us are hoping (and rooting) for tesla to succeed in all possible areas. If they fall short of forecasting, I personally don't care. I believe in the company and vision. I currently have a good portion of stock but I rarely even look at it (I'm long).
I think its fascinating watching Elon take tesla and spacex to levels that hasn't been seen before. I see many companies that are boring and traditional....never pushing it to the max. It's refreshing seeing this type of growth, innovation, and change in a company. I'm loving it...daily.�
May 7, 2016
SageBrush That worries me -- I take it as truth that the Motley Fool is wrong.�
May 7, 2016
Topher Here is a question:
Why did Tesla announce their plans to accelerate the plans? Someone could probably have predicted the stock drop as a result. They are raising expectations of pre-orders that were mostly already happy with when they expected to get their car. It would have been easy to let those expectations remain, keep the ramp up a secret and either meet or beat those expectations. What did they hope to accomplish by 'over-promising'? I have no idea.
Thank you kindly.�
May 7, 2016
Bimbels I totally agree with this. And it seems the stock price would have been boosted by them beating expectations by "over delivering."�
May 7, 2016
Drivin Maybe they hope that people won't notice their failures to deliver on their expectation setting of the past.
One strategy is to over promise and under deliver and then every time you fail to deliver shift the playing field by saying "oh wait, here as an ever bigger promise!"
At some point you either start delivering or people catch up to the hype and get tired of investing.�
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