Jul 19, 2016
FluxCap Fantastic!�
Jul 21, 2016
ev-enthusiast Great!�
Jul 22, 2016
MitchJi Dave,
I'd like to know if part of the reason she changed jobs is because (she mentioned that she could now start investing in TSLA) is because she thinks she's going to be able to make close to as much or more by being able to invest in TSLA.
Also if it's possible I'd love to hear from Ron Baron, particularly his thoughts about SMP2.�
Jul 23, 2016
rbohac Just saw this thread. I'm interested in joining the next discussion�
Jul 25, 2016
DaveT Here's the info for the upcoming interview w/Andrea James.
Date: August 8, 2016
Time: 1pm PT
Video link: Andrea James (former TSLA analyst) interview by DaveT - Google+
Format: I'll be interviewing Andrea. If you have a question you'd like answered, feel free to leave a post here w/your question(s)
A few words about Andrea James:
Andrea James was Vice President, Senior Research Analyst at Dougherty & Company from 2010-2016. She was best known for being a sharp analyst covering Tesla who understood the potential Tesla had as a company from early on. In this Google Hangout interview, DaveT (editor of teslaweekly.com) discusses with Andrea what life was like as a TSLA analyst and her current view of Tesla. Join us LIVE.
From Andrea's blog (Why I won�t be on the Tesla call tonight | Andrea S. James, Solve For X Coaching): "Being a Wall Street stock analyst on Tesla Motors (TSLA) shares from 2010 to 2016 has greatly enriched my life and understanding of the world. I took pride in the depth of my analysis and research � I always started from a position of skepticism and asking, �Where could Tesla go wrong?� But early on, it became clear that the bigger question � the world changing one � was, �Where could Tesla go right?� My firm gave me the opportunity to call the truth on Tesla as I see it. And we get to that truth by analyzing the following three questions, at their simplest: Does Tesla have a technology lead that is real? Can Tesla build it? Will people come?""�
Jul 26, 2016
austinEV quick and crude:
1) How do you feel about Elon's SMP2? It includes sweeping projections of overhauling huge industries.
2) Is Tesla at risk of overreaching?
3) Assuming that the model 3 launch happens roughly according to plan, what if any revaluation do you expect the market to give TSLA? Do you think skepticism will rule all the way to model 3 contributing to financials?
4) How do you value Tesla Energy?
5) How do you envision the capital plan? Tesla will need new car factories. How do you see the timing of factories and capital raises?�
Aug 2, 2016
DaveT I'll be hosting a Google Hangout (ie., video chat) to discuss Tesla's Q2 2016 earnings.
The hangout will start immediately following Tesla's earnings call (shortly after 3:30pm PT, August 3)
Here's the link:
TSLA Q2 2016 earnings roundtable - Google+
Feel free to join in live on August 3rd, or you can view the recorded version afterward.
Also, in addition to discussion the Q2 earnings call/report, we'll also discuss the latest Gigafactory grand opening and hear from those who were able to tour the Gigafactory (ie., DaveT, techmaven, and possibly others)�
Aug 3, 2016
MitchJi And the SMP2?�
Aug 3, 2016
DaveT We're having a video hangout right now to discuss the earnings report/call.
To view, TSLA Q2 2016 earnings roundtable - Google+
To join as participant, Google Hangouts�
Aug 3, 2016
EldestOyster Seems that the participants assemble and chat beforehand, but "viewers" don't see anything until Dave hits the "live" button. So the feed became visible a few minutes after you asked about it.�
Aug 3, 2016
GoTslaGo I clicked the first link (I'm using chrome).
Otherwise go to youtube and search "DaveT Tesla"
PS--watching it now�
Aug 3, 2016
MitchJi Thanks!
Tried my Mac and it works (first link using firefox).�
Aug 4, 2016
MitchJi Hi,
Some excellent information.
Quick comments on three of Dave's points:
13. GF sized to "move the needle" is a somewhat recent change. Initially their goal was to help expedite...:
The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)
Globally moving the needle is a massively bigger (and potentially massively more profitable) undertaking!
2. It's clear that the main obstacle to full autonomy is SW. In the near future HW will cost a lot less (which might be importatn for the M3) and include better SW support, but solving the SW is the clearly the gorilla in the room.
3. And great catch (I completely missed this), Elon saying that the two current focuses of Tesla are the M3 and autonomy.
Master Plan, Part Deux
Most of the SMP2 (everything except the section above) depends on full autonomy.
�
Aug 4, 2016
Ubbe Thanks for the video, I was not able to watch it live (middle of the night here), so doubly thanks for making the recording available!
I'm no investor, but I appreciate your analysis and general fact-collecting, for me this is another input for learning about Tesla, their plans, their possible future plans.
Perhaps the idea about a "Tesla Logistics" is a bit speculative, but if they can muster the personnel for (and are interested of taking on) the task it would be a huge opportunity. -And also in line with the vision of "accelerating the transformation to sustainable transportation". The main sticking point with that kind of business is perhaps that it would require much more minute-by-minute and much larger volume of customer contact (like "where is my package/pallet/shipment I'm waiting for?") compared to just selling the hardware ("I want to buy a Semi/Truck/Car"). So I'm guessing you'll need a lot more people on the customer support side than Teslas current business? Much can of course be automated like package tracking and pickup booking, but yea. However, it's an interesting idea anyway you twist it...�
Aug 4, 2016
GoTslaGo Thanks @DaveT for putting the hang out together, and especially thanks for posting so we can watch later.
Re: autopilot and Mobileye.
A thought I had about the competitive advantage of AP aside from what you all talked about, would be that it could be an integrated product that tesla could sell to other automakers.
Essentially like what Mobileye is trying to do. So for me tesla's divorce from Mobileye is a good thing since they can potentially create an additional marketable product.�
Aug 4, 2016
surfside I can't seem to view the hangout; am I totally dense or is it no longer available?�
Aug 4, 2016
GoTslaGo Just watched it last night. If the link doesn't work (I used chrome), try YouTube search "DaveT tesla"�
Aug 4, 2016
Cattledog Here's the youtube link:
�
Aug 6, 2016
FredTMC I finally had time to sit and watch the hangout last night. Excellent discussions!
Fantastic depth from TechMaven and fluxcap and DaveT
Thanks again Dave for putting this together!�
Aug 11, 2016
tlo Big belated thanks to you guys for doing the hangout!
I would like to comment on Autopilot, which I find the most interesting. The relevant portion in the hangout is at about 45:00 in.
The George Hotz interview that techmaven referred to was this -
This is another helpful interview -
I very much agree with DaveT that autonomy will be winner-takes-all monopolistic type of thing. The reason is AI and economies of scale. No one can compete with Google in search because their high search volume is fed back into their AI to make it better.
Based on putting together everything we know recently, in my opinion Tesla is on the verge of winning the race to autonomy. I think this is a huge deal that I feel warrants a lot more excitement.
A few thoughts:
- Tesla and comma.ai are essentially in the same camp of trying to get from L2 to L3 using AI, then eventually getting to L4. Most of the other serious competitors are trying to jump straight to L4. I'm firmly in the camp that believes in Tesla's approach. I think full L4 autonomy (no driver in car) is still a leap away, and L3 autonomy is a bigger deal than people realize. When Tesla is capable of L3 driving (I consider them at about L2.5 right now), as Elon said, it will blow people's minds. The companies trying to get to L4 are going to have trouble bringing it to market just as Google has been working for years, but still doesn't have a product that works in one city. Meanwhile, Tesla is months away from having L3 autonomy in all road conditions and collecting data that will eventually build the L4-capable AI. From the user's perspective, L4 autonomy is not very distinguishable from L3 autonomy unless the driver is no longer needed to be physically in the car. The transition from L3 to L4 is important, and Tesla is basically the only company properly positioned to make that transition smoothly.
- Re:Manufacturing, which I think was touched on in the hangout - One key advantage for Tesla is they are building both the software and the cars themselves. Because autonomy is a software problem, the only players that can challenge Tesla in achieving autonomy are tech companies, not traditional car companies. However, they are forced to partner with car companies because they don't make cars. That alone is an impedance to them getting to market quickly. Tesla is the only company shipping cars in the near future (as soon as they release the Autopilot 2.0 hardware) that have L4 autonomy capability. Building cars with autopilot hardware and then enabling the capabilities via software updates is one of the smartest things Tesla can do. Since the value for tech companies comes from full L4 autonomy, they will not acquire any manufacturing capability or bring their product offerings to market until L4 autonomy is achieved. Even if and when they achieve L4 autonomy, they have to find a way to build the cars. Which brings me to my next point...
- Electrification - I don't think autonomous ICE cars make sense. I think fluxcap made a similar point in the hangout. EVs are much more responsive than ICEs, and every component of the car needs to be digitalized and talking to each other. Elon talked about this when he first unveiled autopilot at the 11-minute mark of this video - Tesla Unveils Dual Motor and Autopilot. This is why GM is testing autonomy with their Bolt EVs. Thus, in the self-driving future, cars will need to be transitioned to electric. This is where the Gigafactory comes in. As Elon said on the earnings call, global fleet of vehicles is roughly 2.5 billion, so there will be no shortage of demand for autonomous/electric cars. Tesla is the only company positioned to manufacture large numbers of electric cars.
- Lastly, I think Tesla is being very smart about this and have planned their strategy around autonomy. This can be seen with the emphasis of autonomy in SMP2, Elon directly recruiting and managing the autopilot team, and Elon saying M3 and autopilot are the two priorities. They clearly understand the importance of winning in autonomy, and I'm very glad about that. See this video from January, where Elon stated at around the 10-minute mark that the "the two biggest revolutions in transport are electrification and autonomy" -�
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