Mar 17, 2014
techmaven Way cool.�
Mar 22, 2014
DaveT Hangout w/CapitalOppressor
Here�s the info for tomorrow�s March 23rd google+ hangout w/CapitalOppressor
Special Guest: CapitalOppressor
Background: Tomorrow�s google+ hangout will feature special guest, CapitalOppressor. CapOp (as he's known by some on TMC) has contributed some of the most informative posts on TMC and has been an important contributor in the community. We get a special opportunity to hear his latest thoughts on Tesla's gigafactory, battery cost improvements, expansion plans and other topics. We'll also be asking him how he got interested in Tesla and made his first TSLA investment. For reference, here's a few of CapOp's posts:
Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate
Amazing Core Tesla Battery IP - 18650 Cell
What time: March 23rd at 6:30pm Pacific Time (9:30 Eastern Time). It will last about an hour.
Google+ hangout specifics:
Everybody is invited to join the hangout but since the hangout participants is limited to 10 people, the first 6 people after CapitalOppressor and DaveT will be allowed to be participants. We�ll leave 2 slots open for other people to jump in and out with questions if they have any. The format of the night will roughly be DaveT introducing and interviewing CapitalOppressor for the first 20 minutes or so and then opening up the time for questions from the participants and others. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.
Here's the link to the Google+ Hangout event page:
TSLA investment hangout w/CapitalOppressor�
Mar 22, 2014
AlMc DaveT: Thanks again for all the 'heavy lifting' in setting these chats up. If you have not already planned to do so would you consider getting CapOp's thoughts on the premise that Gen 3 and particularly Gen 4 will capture half the total worldwide market for their segments. As you know, I have doubts that Gen 4, in particular, will not be facing some very stiff (and perhaps compelling vehicles) competition in that segment. While I believe TM has a significant protective/first disrupter 'moat' for the S/X/ and Gen 3, I doubt the other automakers of the world are going to give up 50% of any vehicle segment easily.�
Mar 23, 2014
DaveT See y'all in about an hour.
March 23rd at 6:30pm Pacific Time (9:30 Eastern Time).
TSLA investment hangout w/CapitalOppressor�
Mar 23, 2014
StapleGun
Has this started yet?
Edit: Looks like it started now.�
Mar 24, 2014
AlMc Thanks again to Dave, Cap Op and Flux for the conversation last night. I have to admit that my take away about funding the Gigafactory/Gigafactories left me less optimistic about TM and TSLA. It is not that I doubt the company will be in existence and thriving in 5, 10 and 15 years, it is that their disruptor advantage may be overcome by the shear CapEx needed to fully capitalize on that advantage before the Toyotas/BMWs etc. get involved. I may have to readjust my price targets/expectations for TSLA based on that info.
The positive news is the protective patents on the battery format.
I had to leave before it was over so I may have missed something. If time permits, I will try to watch the last part later today.�
Mar 24, 2014
FluxCap Thanks, Al. I wouldn't be too pessimistic based on our discussion -- if anything my key take-away is that Tesla will need more batteries for its world-beating products and this is an execution challenge, but one that Tesla has long planned for and is more than capable of executing on.
Additionally, I'm even more confident given the apparent Intellectual Property "lockdown" by Tesla of 18650 battery pack technology and methods, that other manufacturers will not even come close to creating viable competitive products for years to come -- until/unless they choose to license Tesla's technology. Which would be good for Tesla and its shareholders, and good for the planet.
Don't trade in your bull card just yet.
�
Mar 24, 2014
techmaven I was unavoidable detained and so I got on the hangout late.
I am considering writing an article on Tesla's battery moat, but it takes a lot of time to chase down all the research papers. There are a lot of misconceptions that are often bandied about in the financial and automotive press with regards to Tesla's approach. Suffice it to say that even after auto makers decide on a particular battery chemistry, they then need to decide on the design of battery pack (including a lot of testing), and then design the car around it, and then sort out mass production. As a result, we are likely to receive significant advanced warning of the moves made by other manufacturers. Especially as the car potentially moves to mass production, the ramp up is a significant event that will be well telegraphed.�
Mar 24, 2014
AlMc My card has changed from 'raging bull' to 'bull'. I did cash out some shares at 257 and bought LEAPS but have cash on hand to buy if we drop to support level of 190s.�
Mar 27, 2014
Lump Some news from Panasonic today so I advise all interested to hear the concerns expressed by Cap Op.
(thread bump)�
Mar 27, 2014
lorih Do you have a link?�
Mar 27, 2014
FluxCap Here you go:
TSLA investment hangout w/CapitalOppressor - YouTube�
Mar 27, 2014
kenliles Just listened- great hangout- and many thanks to CapOp for doing this and sharing some excellent thoughts and expertise. I especially can relate to the concerns regarding scaling making similar arguments to those that too closely equate Tesla to Apple/Google/Msoft etc.
The ability to scale per $ invested is simply not in the same league. Without diminishing that point one bit though, the comparison to ICE manufacturers is what Tesla competes with. Elon-team have applied scaling per $ invested (due to extreme vertical integration and EV only design) to an industry that hasn't seen this ever (but similar in disruption to the ModelT). The Tesla model for scaling per $ invested is an order of magnitude beyond what a current ICE manufacturer can accomplish IMO (while still not approaching consumer electronic/software of course).
In short, I see 2105 as a seminal inflection year for Tesla. The confluence of 3 world markets, 2 successful models under unmatched vertical production, SC network largely completed or partial (China), Giga-Factory reveal and detailed, direct sales and support network largely implemented, and a reveal of the ModE. By the end of 2015 with all of that largely in place, I believe the question of valuation inflects relative to the market. The current valuation of $30B- compared to half of BMW $60B which induces your scaling pain, will inflect from 'does Tesla deserve to be half of BMW given scaling issues?' to 'with Tesla now in the marketplace, does BMW deserve a $60B valuation?'
At that time, assuming Tesla has those above items accomplished, they will have demonstrated unprecedented scale/$ (relative to ICE), the investor community may well be reversing the question, how does a BMW prove worthy of forward growth. Until they can demonstrate the ability (or at least the path) to a higher performance/safer/low maintenance product, without an ICE engine, direct sales to customers, free 'gas' for customer long distance for life, battery scale capacity, an overhead plan that shows ICE engineer layoffs and replace with electrical, etc. etc. Once that inflection is reached, the Tesla valuation is likely justified to be twice BMW rather than the other way around, just based on the clear path of the industry as displayed by Tesla and the questions about who has the ability to follow that path.
Might be one of those BMW ICE factories becomes the next Tesla-Euro 'for-a-song' purchases...
anyway - great discussion on the hangout; your insights and research continue to be hugely valuable and appreciated
as usual many thanks DaveT and others-�
May 5, 2014
DaveT Q1 2014 TSLA hangout
We're going to be having a Google+ hangout on Wednesday, May 7, 2014 to discuss TSLA's Q1 2014 earnings.
What: TSLA Q1 earnings hangout
Time/Date: May 7, 2014 at 5:00pm Pacific time (8:00pm Eastern Time).
Google+ hangout specifics:
Everybody is invited to join the hangout. Hangout is limited to 10 participants but the rest of people can still view. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.
Here's the link to the Google+ Hangout event page:
TSLA Q1 2014 earnings hangout - May 7, 2014�
May 5, 2014
kenliles excellent! thanks again for hosting�
May 5, 2014
FluxCap Awesome, looking forward to it Dave.�
May 5, 2014
TSLAopt Yes, I may be late but looking forward to watching�
May 7, 2014
DaveT Just a quick reminder. Google+ hangout will begin today at 5pm PT, 8pm ET. See link above.�
May 7, 2014
sleepyhead Thanks for hosting DaveT.
As we were talking about Chinese trade data, the numbers came in really good:
[TR="class: ec_bg1"]
Column 1 = actual reading, column 2 = estimate, column 3 = last month's reading.
22:00
CNY
Chinese Trade Balance
18.45B
13.90B
[TR="class: ec_bg1"]
7.71B
[/TR] 
[/TR] [TR="class: ec_bg2"] 
22:00
CNY
Chinese Exports (YoY) 0.9%
-1.7%
-6.6%
[/TR] [TR="class: ec_bg1"] 
22:00
CNY
Chinese Imports (YoY) 0.8%
-2.3%
-11.3% [/TR]
This might even help TSLA tomorrow. The Asian markets are liking the data. US futures don't seem to care, but that doesn't mean anything at this hour.�
May 7, 2014
techmaven Thanks Dave!
Thanks sleepyhead. Here's hoping for a good JA Solar earnings report tomorrow morning.�
May 7, 2014
FluxCap Indeed, great call again and thanks for hosting Dave. TSLA and JASO might see some nice green movement in the next few days, we'll see.
I think today's market selloff was overdone and we are due for a small rebound just from that.�
May 7, 2014
c041v Is there an archived version or YouTube video of the hangout?�
May 7, 2014
DaveT If you click on the link to the hangout you can play the archived video.�
Jun 12, 2014
DaveT Hangout to discuss Tesla's decision to open-source patent portfolio
I'm hosting a Google+ hangout tonight at 8:00pm Pacific Time to discuss Tesla's announcement to open-source their entire patent portfolio.
What: Discussion of Tesla's decision to open-source entire patent portfolio
Time/Date: June 12, 2014 at 8:00pm Pacific time (11:00pm Eastern Time).
Google+ hangout specifics:
Everybody is invited to join the hangout. Hangout is limited to 10 participants but the rest of people can still view. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.
Here's the link to the Google+ Hangout event page:
https://plus.google.com/events/c3e79dljnielsbuki6p454r9ca0?authkey=CNnCoq-SqvPywgE�
Jun 12, 2014
MikeC I get a link to the May 7 discussion...
- - - Updated - - -
This link works: https://plus.google.com/events/c3e79...NnCoq-SqvPywgE�
Jun 12, 2014
DaveT Here's the updated link. It's part 2. I had to cut off part 1.
https://plus.google.com/events/cm12v5doeqntlmf954m7b1qheg4�
Jul 30, 2014
DaveT Google+ hangout for TSLA Q2 2014 ER
I'll be hosting a Google+ hangout tomorrow night at 6:00pm Pacific Time (9:00pm Eastern) to discuss Tesla's 2014 Q2 earnings announcement and conference call (to be reported after market close tomorrow).
What: Discussion of TSLA 2014 Q2 earnings
Time/Date: July 31, 2014 at 6:00pm Pacific time (9:00pm Eastern Time).
Google+ hangout specifics:
Everybody is invited to join the hangout. Hangout is limited to 10 participants but the rest of people can still view. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.
Here's the link to the Google+ Hangout event page:
?https://plus.google.com/events/cpf34ua30c6un76ogle7n1lugco?authkey=CPPjqsiw8-WqkAE�
Aug 3, 2014
FredTMC
I just got done watching the hangout video! Great discussion Dave et al. You covered all the topics of interest to me. Sorry I couldn't make it...�
Nov 4, 2014
DaveT TSLA 2014 Q3 earnings
I'll be hosting a Google+ hangout tomorrow night at 6:00pm Pacific Time (9:00pm Eastern) to discuss Tesla's 2014 Q3 earnings announcement and conference call (to be reported after market close tomorrow).
What: Discussion of TSLA 2014 Q3 earnings
Time/Date: November 5, 2014 at 6:00pm Pacific time (9:00pm Eastern Time).
Google+ hangout specifics:
Everybody is invited to join the hangout. Hangout is limited to 10 participants but the rest of people can still view. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.
Here's the link to the Google+ Hangout event page:
https://plus.google.com/events/ckldprtaplilan987352f70hvqg?authkey=CO2z6_aAl-WtFA�
Nov 4, 2014
FredTMC
Excellent DaveT. Thanks for doing this. Looking forward to it!�
Nov 4, 2014
MikeC I just want to give DaveT props for the last hangout, when he said he thought the trading range would be 210-290. I think the range has been ~217-291 since he said that.�
Nov 4, 2014
Benz I am already looking forward to it.�
Nov 5, 2014
FluxCap Thanks for another good Hangout, Dave.�
Nov 5, 2014
TSLAopt Yes, thanks again,sorry I had to leave abruptly, 3 month old woke up�
Nov 6, 2014
FluxCap Belated congrats, TSLAopt!�
Nov 6, 2014
Theshadows Is there a link to the archived hangout from last night? I wasn't able to attend.�
Nov 6, 2014
FluxCap TSLA Q3 2014 Earnings Roundtable - YouTube�
Nov 6, 2014
palmer_md I joined a bit too late to hear the introductions last night, and it seems the names listed when y'all were speaking do not match your TMC name. Who all was on the panel last night? By the way, very good discussion. You guys helped confirm my "gut" feeling about where we are today and where we are headed. It is always nice to hear you are not alone. Thanks for organizing these and thanks for everyone who participated.�
Nov 6, 2014
FluxCap You're welcome!
Fluxcap = Adam
Dave = Dave
Techmaven = Tech010101x�
Nov 6, 2014
Blurry_Eyed Hi guys, sorry I wasn't able to make the hangout. I'm actually at the Charles Schwab IMPACT conference right now. Heard Ben Bernake speak last night and get to hear George Bush (Younger George) today! Fluxcap, you would have loved the stuff Ben talked about yesterday. He had some interesting stories, especially about some of the behind the scenes things going on in 2008-2009.
I look forward to watching the replay of the hangout later this week!�
Feb 10, 2015
DaveT I'll be hosting a Google+ hangout tomorrow night at 7:00pm Pacific Time (10:00pm Eastern) to discuss Tesla's 2014 Q4 earnings announcement and conference call (to be reported after market close tomorrow).
What: Discussion of TSLA 2014 Q4 earnings
Time/Date: February 11, 2014 at 7:00pm Pacific time (10:00pm Eastern Time).
Google+ hangout specifics:
Everybody is invited to join the hangout. Hangout is limited to 10 participants but the rest of people can still view. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.
Here's the link to the Google+ Hangout event page:
https://plus.google.com/events/c0k6ml4tehnaclcmpoq59rd9evg?authkey=CKXd7Zae4rCdyQE�
Feb 11, 2015
SteveG3 Dave, thanks for doing this again.
While I'm not sure I can make this particular call, a couple times in the past I've gone to the site but not figured out how to join in. Could you remind us how we can participate?
(fwiw- sorry if I missed some instructions you'd already posted, though I did try looking through the thread some).�
Feb 11, 2015
DaveT Actually, maybe someone else who's participated can share the details. I'm usually initiating the call which is slightly different than view or participating. But from what I know, just go to the event link above, sign in with your Google+ login, and click "join" hangout. I usually initiate the hangout about a few minutes before so that people can join in before we officially start.�
Feb 11, 2015
FluxCap I'm always a little confused about joining as well, especially given the move from Google Talk to Hangouts, etc and compatibility with Firefox. Here's hoping it works...
- - - Updated - - -
Hangouts link:
https://plus.google.com/hangouts/_/gqkovmqavigtjq747i7sk3qocea?hl=en�
Feb 12, 2015
FrozenCanuck Anyone have the YouTube replay link?
(Forget that - the link above from DaveT works, but for some reason not on an iPad. Works fine from Mac)�
Feb 12, 2015
EldestOyster If you use the Hangouts link DaveT posted about 5 messages back, you can replay it. It doesn't look like it's posted to YouTube yet.�
Feb 13, 2015
Gwgan On my iPad i just see a Private Event message and the video does not play in Google+ app. Is there a way to watch it after the fact on iPad?�
May 6, 2015
Lump Hi Dave, are you hosting a hangout tonight?
Hope all is well.�
May 6, 2015
techmaven If DaveT is not around (I hope all is well, Dave), then FluxCap or I can host it tonight if there is interest.
Ok, since we haven't heard from DaveT, I'm hosting tonight:
Here's the URL:
https://plus.google.com/events/c0gdkao2rips2tq05kvm2n3t2mc
9:30pm EST.
----
Note that the URL has changed since it needs to be a Hangout on Air to record it.
----
Well, that didn't go quite right. Maybe if we had more time to prepare and let people know... DaveT, I hope everything is ok...�
May 6, 2015
DaveT Techmaven, thanks for organizing. Sorry I wasn't able to participate.�
May 6, 2015
FredTMC sorry, I wasn't able to make it either�
May 6, 2015
Larken Could you guys let us know when the recording is up on Youtube as I always enjoy watching the hang-out, it has become part of the ER routine now :smile:�
May 6, 2015
techmaven It was too last minute to pull off... Fluxcap and I didn't realize that DaveT wasn't doing it until midway through the ER itself. And I'm a Hangouts on Air noob, so I messed it up.
We could still do a call, maybe tomorrow evening?
I had a Caps game going on at the same time too.�
May 6, 2015
Larken Yeah you guys should do it :smile:. Listening to a hand full of Tesla uber bulls going through every detail in the ER and CC is great fun and appreciated.�
Apr 22, 2016
DaveT Tomorrow (Saturday, April 22) I'll be interviewing jesselivenomore about his latest post on TSLA price action. I'll be starting the interview about 12pm PT and will be live broadcasting via Google hangout on air. Here's the link:
TSLA price action (jesselivenomore, davet) - Google+
If there are any questions or topics you'd like us to cover, just make a post on the google hangout page. In order to keep focus and time, I'm planning on only having jesslivenomore and myself in the video hangout. Others will be free to post messages before and during hangout, and we'll try to take questions that way.�
Apr 23, 2016
Lump Fantastic, looking forward to hearing both of your thoughts.�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan It's unclear to me when this will take place. I'd love to "attend". @DaveT, can please post clearly the date and time (and time zone). Thanks! (You wrote above Saturday the 22nd but in my time zone Saturday is the 23rd, also 12 PM means midnight, right?)�
Apr 23, 2016
AlMc Johan...Hopefully Dave will confirm this......I took his time date to mean 'today' at 'noon' Pacific Coast Time. So, here on the east coast I was thinking I would 'tune in' at 3pm this afternoon EST.�
Apr 23, 2016
LargeHamCollider It says 12pm PT, that Pacific Time... (Edit: aimc beat me to it)
I'd like to hear DaveT or jesselivenomore estimate the financial value of the de-risking represented by the high volume of M3 pre-orders.�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan I figured it would be strange to interview someone at midnight, but at the same time I share Dave's family situation (small children/baby) so I know how hard it is to find some uninterrupted time
Also, as awkward as it is to admit this, seeing AM and PM when referring to "12 o'clock" always makes me nervous. I know I should know this stuff but the other half of my brain says "why can't you people cut that stuff and just say 07.00, 21.30 and 24.00/00.00 instead?"�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan So wait, I just had an epiphany. First the time is 11.59 AM, then one minute later it's 12 PM (noon) and one hour later it's 1 PM?!? That doesn't make sense. It would be like having 12 inches be one foot and then 3 of those be a yard, and then 1760 of those be a mile. That would be crazy.
(Sorry to derail the thread, I'll come to watch the hangout!)�
Apr 23, 2016
MikeC Hoping the video will stay up after the stream so those of us that can't watch live can catch it.�
Apr 23, 2016
MitchJi The app on my ipad shows the time as 2pm and 3pm.�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan Your time zone? Mine shows 9-10 PM which is in a couple of minutes.�
Apr 23, 2016
MitchJi I''m in California. It's now 12:35 PM here.�
Apr 23, 2016
DaveT Just finished the hangout with jesselivenomore. The video is up at this link:
Thanks to jesselivenomore for sharing his time and also AlMc for suggesting the idea to me.�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan That was a great talk Chris and Dave!
I took some notes as to the things during the talk that struck me the hardest, which may either show how little I had understood about Tesla so far (was this obvious to everyone all along?) or it may help bring out more understanding of the things you talked about in your own words.
These things resonated with me:
1. Everyone waiting in lines were really early adopters. No main stream adopter, however early in the main stream, takes day off work to stand in line in the cold. Everyone acknowledges this, bulls and bears. So if we can all agree that there are "early adopters" well then guess what, we have also agreed that the while be a huge future demand boom as the main stream adopters kick in.
2. The current valuation of TSLA is based on models that look in to the future. To do this the models take in to account mainly information from Tesla about how they see their future growth, revenue and profit. Then the model discounts/modifies Tesla's own valuation of its future based on other inputs (such as the level of faith in that Tesla will be able to do what they are setting out to, based on the macro environment, politics etc.) and calculates a valuation of the future. And the valuation of the future becomes exactly the valuation of today as shown in the stock price. The stock market in total is the ultimate sum of all the valuation models out there.
3. A capital raise would be a very, very bullish signal and will of course change our future valuation of Tesla, thus also our current valuation (which is a direct result of the valuation of the future). A capital raise going mainly toward increasing Model 3 production is very bullish. It will increase reservations in Model 3 - a lot more adopters will come in when they understand that they can get a Model 3 earlier. It feels better getting in line at number 400k when you know that there was just an increase in production volume which, even if the launch of Model 3 can't be moved closer, means you will get your particular car faster now than before the production increase was announced.�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan 4. If someone on this forum, looking backwards in time, has been able to confidently out-trade a buy-and-hold strategy then you have just proven that you up until now have been able to take all the information about Tesla and incorporate it in to your price model (I'll call this you "weighing" of the stock) better than the stock market as a whole during this time period. The only way you can beat the market is to outsmart it, if we're not talking about one lucky trade or something.
5. Short interest is definitely a technical variable, part of TA and not value investing. The fundamental valuation of TSLA isn't changed by the short interest. But the short interest figure does tell us a lot about the psychology surrounding TSLA, the cultural influences, political etc. And it's an important technical indicator when understood, i.e. as long as we are sure that the shorts are wrong in the way they're understanding TSLA (i.e. we the longs are still understanding them better), we should be happy the short interest is high as it signals we still have the information advantage arbitrage.�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan 6. Model X is for China! The air filter! The flashy doors! The newly rich mainland Chinese love to show off their riches. This is a different culture than in the EU and US. This is also the reason for the somewhat lukewarm reception of the Model X among Americans and European long time Tesla bulls here on TMC. I myself for example cancelled my reservation because of the seating arrangements in the 2nd and 3rd row, lack of folding 2nd row, problems with transporting skis, and an understanding that the doors are overengineered. That's OK though: the car isn't meant for me. It's meant for newly rich mainland Chinese people. It has barely started to impact China. It could impact China heavily over the next 12 months or so. To conclude that the X has been a semi-failure to Tesla is to jump the gun. We must be patient.�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan 7. When it comes to downside one would think TSLA would be more vulnerable to a recession than your average stock, because it's value is highly dependent on future growth. So traditionally one would think that TSLA would drop more in a recession where future outlook suddenly bleaks. However the already 400.000 pre-orders to Model 3 is a huge protection against this, it's "something tangeable" rather than something fuzzy and it should help Tesla greatly to keep getting access to capital even in a recession.
8. Regarding short squeeze dynamics: Those of us who have been in the stock since early (2012-2013) and rode it up from the $20s or $30s we have already experienced a major major bull run, so it's hard for us to zoom out and see that those days for us, where we were super exited for a bull run from $27 to $38 is just a little blip all the way to the left of the curve, some noise, to most of the market and traders who all got in to Tesla in 2014 and 2015, after it had become an established higher-cap stock. This is why we have a hard time having faith in yet another short squeeze coming, only this one starting from a much higher valuation. But it's coming. One important dynamic in this is that the shorts are misunderstanding the company, thus seeing any further raise in stock price as unwarranted and makes them want to wait for "that unevitable pullback". Well guess what, it's not coming - your (the short's) valuation model is wrong.�
Apr 23, 2016
jesselivenomore Thanks Johan for summing things up!�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan Thanks for doing the talk.
I even skipped some stuff, one thing I found very interesting that was more of a meta-macro observation was you said basically that the entire economy goes in these long cycles of many years of growth and then some recession, and then the next cycle. Now, the current cycle when zoomed out will always tend to consolidate with the previous cycle's All Time High. For us we're now consolidating with the ATHs of year 2000. This should act as our base for the next growth cycle and as the floor to a coming recession.�
Apr 23, 2016
AlMc Dave and Chris:I have been watching bits and pieces between various family functions I am at; Great insights!
Thanks�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan Taking long toilet breaks with smart phone and earbuds in hand I assume?�
Apr 23, 2016
FredTMC Thanks DaveT and Jesselivermore (and AIMc) for organizing this hangout. Very informative
I largely share the following views:
- Cap raise IS coming... When? I believe sooner is better. Before EC makes more sense to me than post Q1 EC
- FCF is no longer important in 2016. With capital raise occurring, FCF doesn't matter. Bottom line, tesla won't have a liquidity problem anytime soon
- Tesla WILL outline NEW raised production targets thru 2020. New targets will be much higher than the old 500K in 2020. Analysts WILL need to build new financial models. Annual targets for next year forward will be higher than old guidance.
- Energy segment MAY also have higher projections. Tesla will absolutely provide new guidance on EC/ER
- Uber-model and autonomous driving are coming. Tesla will likely discuss during EC OR later this year. Model 3 part 2 tie-in...�
Apr 23, 2016
jesselivenomore I am also thankful for doing this as it may have saved me a couple thousand words worth of posts. Far more efficient this way. So looking forward to more in the future.�
Apr 23, 2016
maoing Just watched the video of google hangout. Dave and Chris both are wondering why TM is not doing capital raise between M3 launch (very positive) and Q1 ER (supposed to be poor)? I agree the Q2/Q3 FCF is not very important compared to M3 production ramp up plan, and TM needs to act sooner rather than later to make M3 delivery earlier than Q4 2017 (this could be bullish too). So it's actually not wise to wait for FCF before raising fund. I summarize my view for this regard in another post Some views on current price action
I summarize again here, TM needs to settle down the GF (foundation of M3 battery) investment and partnership before raising capital raise for M3. So anything related to that could spark the bullish run towards the M3 capital raise.�
Apr 23, 2016
maoing This remain to see. First, lull model S sales is not a strong indicator for Model X sales. Second, model X already debut over this weekend in Beijing. Hope the quality and reliability issues won't scare buyers out.
�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan This. It's why I changed my avatar a while back to read "Let's have a Gigaparty like it's 2016" and posted about the supposed 30th of April original launch date. This is going to be the next big catalyst.
How is it that there are so many clever young Chinese-Americans? It must be some beneficial interaction between perhaps Chinese genetics and upbringing coupled with some type of freedom in the American society?�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan I agree, which is why basically I, nor Dave or Chris, is saying the X is in the bag, but rather let's be patient and not call it a flop yet.�
Apr 23, 2016
EinSV Very useful info and summaries above -- thanks to all who participated and posted.
I do have a minor quibble with how the prospects for the X are characterized. I expect the X will be the best selling premium SUV in the U.S. within a couple years -- initial production teething issues and complaints about lack of fold-down down seats from certain Norwegian skiers notwithstanding.
I also expect that within 2-3 years the X will likely make the same contribution to the bottom line as the S, even without the sales in China.
Keep in mind we still have no reviews from major car magazines -- but if early reports are any indication (such as the WSJ review most have already seen) they are going to be very positive news for the X. Tesla Model X: Electric Meets Extravagant.
I also think autonomous driving and other Model 3 features will likely not be announced until 2017, although it is possible it will be earlier. For many reasons, I think it would be a HUGE mistake to announce that full autonomy will be a feature of the 3 until all of the bugs have been worked out and it is thoroughly tested. To name just one -- if the Model 3 is ready to go in late 2017 but autonomous driving is not ready for prime time, we could have a repeat of delays caused by the Falcon Wing Doors and the X. Autonomous driving is obviously unnecessary to sell at least the first million or two Model 3s so why jump the gun, raise expectations and complicate the launch of the Model 3? The market wants to see results and is heavily discounting Tesla's ambitious statements so it would create huge risks for little benefit. It might even hurt the stock if investors realize it could jeopardize the Model 3 launch date. Why take the risk?
Having said that, all the pieces are in place. Time to raise $ and start building the infrastructure for the M3. Looking forward to the next six months ....�
Apr 23, 2016
AlMc Busted!�
Apr 23, 2016
AlMc Well. watched it twice now. I think it would be great if we had this Google Chat duo together for the Q1ER/CC........�
Apr 23, 2016
Johan I heard you were the promotor to the first meet. Now broker the next rumble in the jungle.�
Apr 23, 2016
MikeC Brilliant interview, guys, thanks for putting it on. It's been a while since we had this level of discourse on the board. It really is starting to feel like 2013 again around here. Looking forward to more in the future, hopefully.�
Apr 23, 2016
DaveT I agree with you that X will become best selling premium SUV in U.S. within a couple years. It's just that I think the ramp has been painfully terrible. Also, with a new/novel feature like the falcon-wing doors, they really ought to have nailed it w/reliability to ensure people don't get scared away.�
Apr 23, 2016
EinSV I agree. I always thought Tesla should wait until Model X v 2.0 to introduce the FWDs and I think everyone (including Elon) would agree that that would have been the way to go. Having said that, the X seems to be an amazing vehicle and the FWDs are very cool. I expect the build quality problems will settle down shortly if they haven't already.�
Apr 23, 2016
MitchJi What risk? Include the HW, optional charge for SW, roll it out via OTA when it's ready, exactly like the AP. Not saying they should do this, but I don't see the risk.�
Apr 24, 2016
EinSV Sorry, I should have been more clear. As of now, Tesla has said the Model 3 will have "Autopilot Hardware." No problem. But there have been suggestions that Tesla may announce that the Model 3 will be fully autonomous, perhaps later this year or during the Model 3 reveal Part 2. My concern is that full autonomy may be more challenging to perfect than expected, so it would be a mistake in my view to tie full autonomy to the Model 3 launch unless the risk that it won't be ready on time is essentially nil. Although in theory Tesla could back off from a commitment and just provide it later via an OTA update, if they promise it for all M3s they will want to deliver.
Edit: One additional point -- it is not guaranteed that all critical problems identified during testing will be software problems. For example, it could turn out that more sensitive sensors or sensors that work better in certain conditions are required to provide the level of safety required for fully autonomous driving.
No problem discussing autonomy as long as they don't commit to making it available on all Model 3s and have wiggle room on when it will be available.�
Apr 24, 2016
MitchJi I know that you were talking about full autonomy instead of AP. My point is that they can roll it out exactly the same way that they rolled out AP (which I described).
OTA is what I suggested and doing it that way (even if it's not ready) will increase demand and provide a source of income. Why would they do it another way, since they already did AP exactly the same way?
It's a safe bet IMO that they will have nailed the HW requirements and even if they haven't the amount that they charge for the functionality should easily cover the added costs.�
Apr 24, 2016
EinSV My understanding is that Tesla is working on new autopilot hardware right now. Tesla Is Working On Autopilot Hardware Suite 2.0 � Confirmed By Elon Musk So it would seem the hardware issues have not all been worked out for full autonomy.
I would guess that before they would release a production version of full autonomy they will need TONs of data showing it is safe under all driving conditions. Maybe they'll have it nailed by late 2017, maybe not. I did a quick Google search for estimates for replacing the sensors and did not find anything definitive.
Either way, since they gain little or nothing by pre-announcing full autonomy for the Model 3 launch, why take the risk of incurring unnecessary expense, delays, egg on their face or, worst of all, imposing a false deadline that creates an incentive to release autonomy before it is ready? If autonomy is good to go when the M3 launches, great, if not, I say release the Model 3 without it and release autonomy when there is enough data to be confident it is safe.�
Apr 24, 2016
StephenM Fantastic google hangout guys. Really appreciate you two divulging your insights, and I agree that this medium has some big advantages to posting on a forum in the depth of the discussion. Looking forward to the next one�
Apr 24, 2016
Familial Rhino @DaveT @jesselivenomore
Hey guys, thanks for a great discussion and for making it available to the rest of us. I wasn't around when you were having the conversation, but while watching it two questions came to mind. I would be very interested to hear your take on them.
1. Tesla is closing in on half a billion dollars in reservations (they could be there already). This amount will continue to increase, although the rate will likely be slowing down to a trickle, due to the "back-of-the-queue effect" Jesse mentioned (I hope it's ok if I keep using your board name). The way I see it, this relieves some of the pressure on Tesla to do the capital raise immediately; they might choose to wait in order to get better terms, especially if they use convertible notes again. Do you guys agree, and if the answer is yes, how much leeway do you think this cushion provides to Tesla with respect to the timing of the raise, say, in number of months?
2. I have a suspicion that Tesla might be closer to completion with the production design for the Model 3 than they let on, and that the reason for the original launch date of late 2017 was not as much that they needed that long to complete the car and the production line, but that they wanted to finance the new line only with revenue from the S and the X (i.e., without a capital raise), and it would have taken that long to generate the necessary cash. However, if they do raise new capital (and I think the likelihood of that approaches 100%), what do you think are the chances that they pull the launch date forward to, say, early 2017, or even earlier?�
Apr 24, 2016
DaveT My personal take is that Tesla wouldn't want to use reservation money as working capital since it's refundable money. I think they'll just use the cash as additional reserve. So, even with a lot of reservations, they need to raise capital. I prefer them raising capital sooner than later.
I'd love for them to pull up production plans with a capital raise. However, I think early 2017 is too early. They need to do a ton of stuff before delivering vehicles. They have a whole supply chain to orchestrate, tooling, testing, safety crashes, etc. I even think by end of 2017 is pushing it. But with more capital, perhaps they can truly start deliveries by end of 2017 and ramp much faster in 2018 than they were previously planning�
Apr 24, 2016
Johan I agree with DaveT that to start deliveries sooner than late 2017 would likely be pushing the envelope too far. What matters is volume in 2018-2020 and the slope of the ramp curve. To push the introduction of the Model 3 too early is risky with regard to quality (just look at where they're at currently with Model X) and with regard to the entire production and supply operation as well as after sales services (don't underestimate the challenge in growing this at the appropriate pace), the SC network etc.�
Apr 25, 2016
StephenM And I'd like to add that Elon tweeted that he wanted the most customers as possible to be able to take advantage of the Federal rebate, so I believe all efforts are going to be on a quick ramp, and definitely not a quicker release.�
Apr 25, 2016
jesselivenomore Thanks Rhino, and 'Jesse' is fine.
The pressure to expedite a cap raise is so that they can get the ramp underway(whatever preparations/tooling necessary). The longer this takes, the more orders you potentially lose when the Model 3 finally hits the streets, when the mainstream buyer sees it and want it, but are unwilling to wait years for it.
To what extent the reservation money alleviates this pressure depends on if it is currently being used to start this ramp up? And if so, what percentage of it is earmarked for use(you have to hold some back in case of cancellations)?
If the answer is yes and the amount is enough, then they can hold out for better terms for the cap raise. Otherwise the time lost is more valuable IMO.
If your assumption is true -that what they really need is just capital and not development time- then an accelerated launch date would be possible and very positive. But imo the original assumption is highly speculative.�
Apr 25, 2016
Familial Rhino Thanks everyone for your answers.
I agree with everyone that the sooner they raise, the sooner they can ramp up, and the greener everyone's portfolios will be. However, I would be surprised if they raise at the current levels. Not saying it won't happen, I just think Musk will want better terms. The cushion from the Model 3 reservations gives them a safety net for the short term; it doesn't have to be earmarked as working capital, but it frees other cash reserves to be used as such. After all, a dollar is a dollar.
Yes, entirely speculative, and my speculation is this: we all agree that the velocity of the ramp up is the critical factor, and Elon himself made that clear. In order to accelerate it, they have to raise. I suspect they want better terms for the raise, and they have a little bit of wiggling room to try and optimize it.
The ideal way to do that is shock and awe. And what would be more shocking and awe-worthy than pulling the date earlier than previously announced? I am assuming they can do that, because I speculate they are more advanced in the development timeline than we think, and I further speculate that this was Elon's plan all along. Tesla has overcome a lot of skepticism over the years, but everybody, and I mean everybody, including its most ardent supporters, is expecting Tesla to be late. Yeah, early 2017 is unrealistic, but even a quarter earlier would be enough to turn the bear case on its head and make them rush to the exits (exits? what exits?). Then, the champagne can flow, and Tesla can raise.
Some believe Musk wasn't surprised with the number of Model 3 reservations, and I fully agree. The Model 3 is his third rodeo (not counting the Roadster). They know how to build this car, and Musk learns from his mistakes. This is why to me, at least, it doesn't seem entirely out the realm of possibility that this time he's planning to start the party early. Besides, being early doesn't have to come at the expense of increased later volume. In fact, it could be the very mechanism by which they can deliver it.
(End of speculation.)�
Apr 25, 2016
Johan I'm not so sure what reason the market would have to believe Elon if he were to come out with an earlier release date for Model 3. When have they ever been on time with a product launch? I'm not saying this to be critical, I share Rhino's belief that they may be further along in Model 3 development than most assume, but I say it in a very matter-of-factly way: when have they ever been on time with a product launch?
So to the market just hitting the late 2017 date without delay would be a surprise to the upside.�
Apr 25, 2016
Familial Rhino Fair point. The only way this could work is if they are indeed ready with the car, or will be very shortly. Then, they can say "Hey market! Look. The car is ready. We didn't tell you before because we didn't want to over-promise, but really, we're done. We were planning to build it organically by only spending the cash that we earn from sales, but the demand for the Model 3 is NUTS. We could increase the targeted volume and accelerate the production, if only we had the money. Hint, hint."
Anyway, I agree it's probably just wishful thinking. But I'll keep an eye on Elon's Twitter picture, just in case.�
Apr 25, 2016
Julian Cox Fascinating.
I had really not expected to be looking at a cool high-energy 30 something Asian American. That's for certain.
What I am seeing here is a guy projecting motives on what people think about chart action and seeking to second guess the guessers.
This in my opinion is exactly what makes investing so incredibly difficult for most people. In this pattern everyone is recursively second guessing each other and it is a fundamental fallacy to imagine the next guy in the loop isn't second guessing you second guessing him. As a retail investor regardless of how smart you are with this approach you're the last to know. The chart is a historical artifact at all times. Having a great grasp of what people might have been thinking in the past is not especially productive when it comes to what they will be thinking in the future and if you cannot know the future and you lack a time machine to go back and replay the match you are essentially toast.
As Chris points out correctly, the correct approach if this is all you have to go on is to buy and hold the stock because trying to outperform it in the long run is a waste of your time. The day you think you are ahead of the chart the other guy second guesses you better than you second guessed him and then it's game over for your chart beating gains and some of those guys are seriously smart. More than that they have insane tools. My school friend & best buddy growing up is one of those beyond smart people in the world of computer science that genuinely understands at the level of original gut instinct how software behaves at the quantum level on the inside of microprocessors. People you normally think of as smart take computer science majors to try to understand the end result of the stuff he does for a living because he's been making the tools to make the tools they are trying to understand how to make software with - like building and optimizing the actual compilers that turn an app or a function written in javascript into zeros and ones. Currently this guy is a Vice President of a major US trading bank and right now he is in charge of shaving milliseconds off their HFT platform.
You don't mess with people like that in a second guessing game.
It's only my opinion but the the way to beat this rap is not to try to guess what the insanely smart guy with the joystick on my mate's HFT platform is thinking but to figure out the business of Tesla the company. From that figure out what the guy on the HFT machine is going to be getting in his newsfeed in the future and by when and what significance that will have to him when he hears it.
The fact that this is possible with TSLA and with no other stock that I am aware of is what sets TSLA apart for me. The reason for that is that this the only publicly traded Name I know that is managed effectively by a single will who seeks the truth of what his optimum move is and plays that move predictably without the influence of irrational fear or the second guessing of a committee and within spitting distance of absolute precision. The truth is knowable by anyone because its the truth. There are infinite errors in this world, but the truth is singular, anyone can discover it with enough effort and whenever you catch a clear view of it with regards to Tesla you just penetrated the CEO's office with a direct proxy for insider information from the top. Then you know what Musk will do, then you know what Tesla will do then you know the news in advance, then you know what the HFT guy will hear and if you got that far a great gut feel of what he will do about it will tell you the PT and timing. Any time you get to the bottom of that rabbit hole you have just struck gold. Inbetween times, buy and hold or buying dips is a much better idea, so is coming off risk altogether.
So there.
Oh And by the way. Goldman Sachs Archambault is no dictionary definition analyst. His record of calls sucks compared with Ronnie what's his chops. They are not one and the same or even trying to be, totally different animals. Archambault's job is not to be right, it's to inject news into the news feed to massage the stock movement and all you get to hear from him is what he agreed with his clients he was going to say the previous week. And the other thing about that is that Musk IS one of his clients. They are on the same team. Like whose firm did Musk just call to help him exercise two tranches if $100 millon worth of options at $50 million a pop in tax whereby he's now $100 million plus up on the deal in personal net worth.�
Apr 25, 2016
jesselivenomore Dave invited me on to ask about my views from a trading perspective, so I gave them. That does not mean I encourage anyone to pursue trading as a discipline, because as you correctly point out it is incredibly difficult. And that is exactly what I expressed when he asked me about others trading. With that said, for those who have shown the ability over time to have an edge over the markets(the other second guessers), not correctly guessing 1 or 2 trades over the years, but 10s of 1000s - some right and some wrong - and proving a profitable and statistical advantage over time, for these people I think it is okay for them to keep "guessing". Especially if they have made a decent living for themselves for over 10 years now at a reputable financial firm doing just that.
I will just say that you do not have adequate knowledge in this area.
I work with several coders who write algos for the desk I trade on. A HFT program will only affect those who are trading on an intraday or very short timeframe. This is irrelevant to my discussion with Dave since we are only talking about medium to long term. This is obvious to anyone familiar with HFT.�
Apr 25, 2016
kenliles Your quantum level friend, I think,
would accommodate effects of 'the observer',
stipulating truth is,
'in truth', the opposite of singular,
and is at best recursive;
proven by the false assumption that,
'truth is singular'...�
Apr 25, 2016
MitchJi I think his use of charts to determine the state of shorts is brilliant. Using charts to see that many of them got in when a technical indicator, which is now broken is a very smart way to use charts, which doesn't necessarily mean that it's correct.
The question is, does Elon see it the same way? Because if he does and if you're also correct that he is going to try to trigger a squeeze before the next raise it will probably be very soon. OTOH if he sees the situation the same way you do he will probably wait for more ammunition.
I think that both of your approaches can be valuable. I think that the best approach would be a combination of Jesse's use of charts, combined with your approach of understanding Elon's likely next move combined with a deeper technical understanding of EV's, battery technology etc. than either of you possess.
For example Jesse was clearly correct and you were clearly incorrect when he waited until the SP was close to $148 when he bought a few months ago and you were beating the drums for immediate action to the extent of saying that you went in at $207 and that was about as good as it was going to get. OTOH you were correct in that it was a good time (if not the best time) to get in.
I am not trying to be critical. One of my mentors used to say that "the mystery of humility is that you can learn something from everyone."
Plesse excuse me for saying this but it seems to me that you are often close to the opposite extreme of being so proud that you refuse to learn anything from anyone.�
Apr 27, 2016
tander Hi all thanks for that insightful discussion, I liked that format a lot better than clicking away on various threads since I listened to it while driving. Anyway I had one takeaway which I think rings true for maybe all investors. One of you said something about reality vs. expectations, and that is pretty much the basis for all shortish term investing in my view. Whenever reality and expectations differ, the moment when the two start to normalize is usually a good time to be trading.
That brings me to another topic that you were discussing; the possibility of a short-squeeze. I think things are sounding more and more like that, but looking back to 13', the price roughly doubled. My sense is that the stock is far more mature and mainstream than it was at that time, so a doubling of that sort seems pretty unlikely. But then again it seemed unlikely in 13' too, and I'm not much of a short-squeeze expert. Anybody else want to opine?�
Apr 27, 2016
dakh Just from pure logic, not experience: if the theory that shorts want out is correct, then if price goes down shorts will have an opportunity to exit. If it stays flat for a while they'll be forced to exit via having to pay interest on their short positions. If it goes up gradually they'll be forced to exit but that'll happen in fairly orderly fashion. So from here we need to know if many more shorts want in if price goes up, which I'm guessing the answer to that is not likely. That would mean to trigger a violent squeeze we'd need the price to stay fairly high but steady, a strong upward catalyst, and that has to happen fairly soon.�
May 2, 2016
MitchJi I hope that someone sets this up for the ER-CC.
Also if you do it , please make sure that the time is correct and complete. Example 5PM Pacific Standard using daylight savings time.
And please set up the video and provide the link.
I was ready for the last one but I couldn't figure out the correct time and money couldn't figure out how to participate with the Google Hangout App on my iPad, but it's all good because the video saved me.�
May 2, 2016
Julian Cox @MitchJi
"For example Jesse was clearly correct and you were clearly incorrect when he waited until the SP was close to $148 when he bought a few months ago and you were beating the drums for immediate action to the extent of saying that you went in at $207"
Um - That is a completely false recollection - an urban myth that came out of the online harassment I was subjected to by Jesse. $207 is my highest ever stock accumulation from November 2015. Jesse as you should recall stated he bailed at $220 and was encouraging others to bail on the way down to $148. Both myself with only outsider information and Elon Musk with full insider information did / must have looked at the $200 support level. I put up a day trade at $200 and called it off with modest gains at $205. Jesse obscured the fact that I called it the $200 trade at $205 in favor of SP indefensibility until Mid-late Feb - and obscured this for many readers here until this day - by constantly mocking my previous $200 call despite the fact it was a winning call when closed (and it was closed for the reasons given - in one of the most serious and diligent trading related posts I can recall ever committing to TMC). Elon bought $100 million of shares by converting options at $193, and again at $150-ish. I called it at $160 ish to $250 on extreme conviction and out at $255. I do not want to keep bringing this up - but you did, and what you brought up is completely untrue and cannot go unanswered.�
May 2, 2016
jesselivenomore Let's be clear, and I do not like rehashing this either, but since you are bringing this up out of the blue without provocation, and mentioning me by name:
1. I have never tried to talk anyone into bailing "on the way down to 148". That is ridiculous, since I wrote a detailed explanation to why I bought at 150:
2. As much as I would like to take credit for it, I did not even try to talk people into bailing at 200. I did express caution against unbridled and irresponsible pressure from some(you) to get others to "go allin", due to macro uncertainties at the time:
If that is not clear enough let me quote myself from above just for added emphasis:
"To be very clear:
There is nothing wrong with buying here. There is also nothing wrong with selling here or hedging here.
Every individual has different risk tolerances, and different time frames on their positions.
Just do not think that $200 or even $180 is some magical price that we cannot go under, therefore everyone should sell their kids to buy more here. We very well may bottom here and don't go under. But with macro risks, anything can happen. That's all."
Your vehement disapproval over the mere caution that I expressed led to you accusing me of lacking "courage", and calling my words the "The bleating of a sheep that was trying to get people to panic at the bottom." Not at 148. Not at 180. This was above 200.
This is proof that you couldn't have possibly viewed your incessant bottom calls at 200 as the "day trade" that you are now characterizing it. Are you seriously trying to convince people that you argued with me and got the both of us banned at the time over a $5 daytrade? You seriously want me to believe you were pounding the table for people to "go allin" over a $5 daytrade? People here are neither that gullible, nor stupid, neither are their memories so short.
I can not count the number of times you have brought this up and accused me of all of this. I am trying very hard to let it go without a response, but there is a limit to my patience. I encourage anyone to look up either mine or Julian's post history starting on 1/14 in the short term thread to verify any of this. And Julian, since you cannot stop accusing me of lying about you, you are also welcome to quote all of my numerous lies for all to see.
Otherwise, for the third time, stop derailing this thread for your personal agenda.
EDIT:
I just noticed a thread titled Investor Off Topic Dumpster with your name on it where the previous posts re: this went. Aptly, if you care to continue this discussion, let us keep it in the Dumpster where it belongs.�
May 2, 2016
MitchJi You are responding to a post on April 25, and you "do not want to keep bringing this up". I remember exactly what happened and Jesse is correct. I'll post one quote from Jesse's post:
Julian had a lot of excellent reasons (but he does have a tendency to go a bridge too far) with his "go allin" recommendations. I am very grateful for that advice, since the information he provided motivated me to pull a substantial sum of money from a home equity line of credit.
But Jesse's posts caused me to be cautious, so I waited until the SP hit about $170 (2/3's) and $161(remaining 1/3). In hindsight I wish that I had waited until Jesse bought at under just $150.
Those J18 leaps are currently May 2, at 12.21 PM up 88%
You were also stating in December that in 2016 that there would be a long rise culminating in a squeeze in the Jun-Aug time frame. At some point you switched to the DTU camp. Nothing wrong with changing plans in response to events (400k M3 reservations), but not informing the community of the change means there is an additional reason to be extremely careful about listening to your advice.
In the following statements I am trying to be constructive, not confrontational.
Julian's problem clearly isn't dishonesty. He clearly believes his inaccurate statements about his infallibility. In other words he is delusional. I am hesitant to state that, but he since he is continually making inaccurate statements about his previous posts those are the only two possibilities, he is either dishonest or delusional.
Which means several things:
The main reason I'm pointing this out is that kindness and compassion are better and more constructive ways to respond than anger and criticism.
It's a waste of time trying to get him to see that he is incorrect, definitely not worth getting banned.
It might occasionally be useful to point out his false statements for the benefit of the community.
Like many of us he can be a useful resource if you understand his personal limitations.�
May 4, 2016
MikeC Hoping DaveT and jesse have the time and inclination to do another hangout. The first one, essentially predicting the increased production plan just revealed in the shareholder letter, was extremely helpful.�
May 4, 2016
AlMc I can't speak for Dave but it appears none will be happening�
May 4, 2016
DaveT Alright guys, I've decided to host a Google hangout immediately following today's conference call. I feel like this is just too important of an earnings announcement to not have one.
Here's the hangout link:
TSLA Q1 2016 Earnings Roundtable - Google+
The hangout will start probably around 3:30pm PT (after conference call ends).�
May 4, 2016
DaveT I think I didn't add invites when starting the hangout so it wouldn't let people join the hangout. Was hoping to have some discussion regarding Q1 earnings. Maybe next time. For now, I'll leave the hangout link up as it's more my personal thoughts on Q1 earnings and what it means in the bigger picture.�
May 4, 2016
FluxCap Hey Dave and guys -- sorry to miss but I'm in the process of moving. Hope you had a chance to chat. Exciting times for Tesla, accelerating the 3 ramp is awesome.�
May 6, 2016
DaveT Why I won�t be on the Tesla call tonight | Andrea S. James, Solve For X Coaching
Hopefully I can organize a Google Hangout with Andrea James. That would be neat.�
Jul 19, 2016
tander That's a really good point that it's made for China, hadn't even occurred to me. Been thinking gosh they really need to focus on the Chinese market + gosh the model x is too flashy, but hadn't connected the two, I bet that went into the gullwing decision. The model s is a little too flashy for me, and the gullwing doors on the x are super flashy to me, but this makes sense for China, and China makes sense for Tesla.�
Jul 19, 2016
ggies07 Is this going to happen? I think I have on my calendar Aug.8th. Maybe that was for something else.......�
Jul 19, 2016
steve3 Yep,
�
Jul 19, 2016
DaveT Yes, I've got Andrea James confirmed for August 8 at 1pm PT. I'll post the link closer to the date.�
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