teslamotorclub: Articles/megaposts by sleepyhead part 2

Sleepy, I think I read that you still have Dec 21 $160 calls you are keeping till expiration, as you already wrote them off in your mind as a complete loss. (Or maybe it was someone else.) I'm in the same boat, hanging onto the slightest chance of a turn-around that will recover some of the money put in (I paid 21.5 average).

But I'm watching how they have been trading the last few days and noticed they're not moving much, still hovering under 3 dollars. What's a good strategy, selling now for 3 bucks, wait for the miracle, or buying more to average down (I did buy more last week at 3.1 for the heck of it but even at that price, it added to my loss, so a little reluctant).
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mulder1231 said: ?

Sleepy, I think I read that you still have Dec 21 $160 calls you are keeping till expiration, as you already wrote them off in your mind as a complete loss. (Or maybe it was someone else.) I'm in the same boat, hanging onto the slightest chance of a turn-around that will recover some of the money put in (I paid 21.5 average).

But I'm watching how they have been trading the last few days and noticed they're not moving much, still hovering under 3 dollars. What's a good strategy, selling now for 3 bucks, wait for the miracle, or buying more to average down (I did buy more last week at 3.1 for the heck of it but even at that price, it added to my loss, so a little reluctant).
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I have bull call spreads and they need a steep climb to make me some money. I can cash them out at pennies on the dollar, but at this point the bid/ask and transaction costs would eat half the sale price. So I just let them run and they will probably expire worthless.

In your case though the $160s still have some value so it is a tough call. I don't ever like giving people my opinion on when to sell, because there is a 99% chance that I will be wrong. With options everyone has to make their own decisions.

If TSLA goes up 10% tomorrow then those options will double or even triple in value. If it goes down 10% they will lose 50% or more. You are at the mercy of the market right now.

One thing you can look at is to roll the options by putting in an order for a calendar spread to try to roll the Dec $160's into March $180's. You will probably have to pay more out of pocket to do this and then TSLA would have to go up even more, albeit you would get a lot more time. Do you really want to through more money at it?

Playing options is really tough, and you will never make the correct decisions. It is hard to say, it all depends on what you think TSLA will do in the next five weeks. I bought some TSLA today and I am already regretting it. I probably should have waited, but since I had very minimal TSLA exposure I thought that $139 sounds a lot better than $194. I will be buying more if it goes to $120.
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sleepyhead said: ?

After taking some profits on CSIQ (still holding a ton of CSIQ, because it is only getting started), I started dabbling at TSLA once again today in the $139's. Bought a few June calls, J15s, J16s, and stock. I don't think the worst is over, but there is a chance that we had our double bottom yesterday (although it did not hit $133 like I think it should) and don't want to miss out. I bought longer term calls, because I actually hope that TSLA goes down lower so that I can buy more next month. If it doesn't go down then I will make money on what I bought. It is a win-win situation and that is how I invest: put myself in win-win situations.
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Bought even more TSLA today since it hit $134 and bounced back. This could be our double bottom before it recovers a little bit into the $140s. The support at the $133 area has been very strong, but there still are significant risks that the stock goes lower (in which case I am ready to buy more).

Catalysts for the stock to go lower:
1. General market sell-off
2. Negative news story with a material impact, such as another fire by running over road debris.

The stock will not go much higher than $150 without any positive catalysts, such as indications that Tesla is producing 700 cars/week. But there is a real chance for a technical bounce out of the $130s in a short period of time.

Without any news, positive or negative, it seems that TSLA will be stuck in the $120 - $140 range, and the risk is to the downside. If we don't get any positive catalysts the stock will probably continue its slow and painful decline.

The risk is to the downside, but I like to get greedy when others are fearful.

Still vast majority of my money is in solar, but I now have a substantial TSLA position as well. Yesterday's news on CSIQ is just the beginning. JKS will step up to the plate on Monday and crush one out of the park. The market is taking profits on solar today, because it is confused and doesn't know what to do. The problem is that nobody cared about solar for the past 3 years, and nobody on Wall St. understands solar. Wall St. is basically clueless and only now starting to play catch up. It takes weeks or even months to study an industry, so it will take time for these stocks to start trading on fair value. In the mean time, there are plenty of cheap stocks out there and plenty of opportunities to get in before it is too late.
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sleepyhead said: ?

Bought even more TSLA today since it hit $134 and bounced back....
The risk is to the downside, but I like to get greedy when others are fearful....
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Buy and hold
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kenliles said: ?

Buy and hold
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That's the plan. That is why I hope that TSLA goes down even more, so I can dollar cost average on the way down.
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Hi Sleepy,

Which solar stocks do you hold currently? Which are you most excited about? I've done very well with CSIQ thanks to you!
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sleepyhead said: ?

nobody on Wall St. understands solar.
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I think Wall St. got burned on solar stocks years ago. It had its bubble.

Now the risks are the elimination of net metering and subsidies. Without net metering, most home owners can't recover their costs in a < 10 year time period. Loss of subsidies will hurt, too.

As for Tesla, I'm expecting a strong Q4 and good predictions for 2014. A bonus would be the service announcement Musk mentioned in the last CC, and especially, tangible progress on Model S (Alphas, test rides, etc.).

The negative is a third road debris fire. Does anyone have any statistics on when to expect the next one? (and yes, there will be another) It's really too bad Musk doesn't yet appear to have learned the lessons of how to handle this kind of recall-ish situation from other companies that have gone through it.
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smorgasbord said: ?

The negative is a third road debris fire. Does anyone have any statistics on when to expect the next one? (and yes, there will be another) It's really too bad Musk doesn't yet appear to have learned the lessons of how to handle this kind of recall-ish situation from other companies that have gone through it.
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Within a couple months, but small sample sets can skew badly (like how many flips does it take to get heads).

After the first fire, Elon said ICE have fires every 20 million miles driven and Tesla had 1 in 100 million. So, after 3 fires, you're looking at 3 in maybe 110 million driven. Call that 1 in 35-40 million.

20,000 S on the road * 1000 miles/month = 20 million miles/month. So, if we're seeing fires 1 every 35-40M miles, then another fire within a couple months.

Like I said though, sample sets are so small any values are going to suffer from a wide standard deviation.
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Sleepy, i just wanted to get your thoughts on overall Market Sentiment.
The Market has been on a run for the past 5 days (assuming we finish green today) and i am leery of a small pull back to be coming.

EDIT:
Looks like my worry fulfilled itself.
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Whats your take on the HSOL's sale of American Depositary shares and pullback today? This is playing out much like the SOL one is and i could be a good buying opportunity. Their ER didnt see all that bad and they could make a nice recovery. Also, despite the huge pull back here late in the day, it held $3.60 like a concrete floor.
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smorgasbord said: ?

I think Wall St. got burned on solar stocks years ago. It had its bubble.

Now the risks are the elimination of net metering and subsidies. Without net metering, most home owners can't recover their costs in a < 10 year time period. Loss of subsidies will hurt, too.

As for Tesla, I'm expecting a strong Q4 and good predictions for 2014. A bonus would be the service announcement Musk mentioned in the last CC, and especially, tangible progress on Model S (Alphas, test rides, etc.).

The negative is a third road debris fire. Does anyone have any statistics on when to expect the next one? (and yes, there will be another) It's really too bad Musk doesn't yet appear to have learned the lessons of how to handle this kind of recall-ish situation from other companies that have gone through it.
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Net metering is a risk specific to SCTY and RSOL, and to a very tiny degree SPWR. All of the Chinese solars don't need net metering one iota.

Subsidies are not going away. In my opinion, they are only getting started. For every one country that takes away subsidies there will be five more that increase subsidies. Solar is only getting started. Actually subsidies might go away for oil and gas, and then solar will win without any subsidies, because it is cheaper.

fjm9898 said: ?

Sleepy, i just wanted to get your thoughts on overall Market Sentiment.
The Market has been on a run for the past 5 days (assuming we finish green today) and i am leery of a small pull back to be coming.

EDIT:
Looks like my worry fulfilled itself.
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Market will pullback eventually. The decline today was because Carl Icahn opened his mouth, which I find ridiculous. It was perpetuated by algos selling off, which should be illegal. Algos are supposed to create liquidity, but all they do is steal money from the little guy and create volatility. This is just my opinion, and there is no way to prove that I am right or wrong. Therefore, algos are here to stay.

I have made some of my biggest gains during a market pullback, so I stay invested. IMO we are still in the middle of a long-term bull market, so I see no reason to sell. Buy and hold, because you will never time things perfectly.

fjm9898 said: ?

Whats your take on the HSOL's sale of American Depositary shares and pullback today? This is playing out much like the SOL one is and i could be a good buying opportunity. Their ER didnt see all that bad and they could make a nice recovery. Also, despite the huge pull back here late in the day, it held $3.60 like a concrete floor.
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SOL has yet to break above its offering price. HSOL is a loser and I would not recommend it since there are so many high quality stocks to choose from. HSOL is part of a holding company, and because it is not a stand alone company it can't make decisions that are in the best interest of the company and its shareholders. It might yield a great return to shareholders, but the risk is way too high.

JKS just proved that it is a winner and so did CSIQ. I would be buying JKS right now, it is potentially a $100 stock in the near/mid future.

Tesla: As far as TSLA goes, nothing has changed. Please refer to my latest megaposts on TSLA. The stock might bounce back 5% or it might decline 5%, but there is no reason for a sustained rally until we get a catalyst.

I have been buying up TSLA every day for the past week. I have been taking profits from my solar plays to buy some TSLA. Probably a little too early, but I am ready to buy more if it goes to $100.

Fires are probably the biggest risk to TSLA, even though they are an unwarranted risk; but still real due to public perception. If we don't have any fires over the next year (probably impossible), or just a very small amount of fires (by the public's perception standards) then I still see TSLA going to $300-$400 by spring 2015, IF:

- Tesla is able to execute and deliver 40K - 50K Model S in 2014; and ~5K Model X in 2014 without any bugs.
- Tesla guides towards 80k+ Model S and X deliveries in 2015.
- Model E still on track to debut in 2016-17 time frame.
- No other major setbacks

You can call this perfect execution if you want, but there is still a clear path towards a $400 share price within 18 months. We just can't have anymore fires, because they might scare away potential buyers and that affects demand.

I am a buyer of TSLA, but solar is still has a significantly better risk/reward profile for the buy and hold investor and that is where the vast majority of my money is. I just couldn't ignore TSLA at these valuations.

Bonus tip: JKS is a gold mine with its business model. If you invest though, research is a must to make sure there aren't any adverse developments that affect their business model. $1.44 non-GAAP EPS on an annual basis would be enough to justify its current share price at $33. They had $1.44 in Q3 alone. I put 50% of my 401k in JKS as a pure ER play, but I am going to keep it there for the time being. CSIQ is still my bigger holding, but both stocks are equal in my eyes.
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sleepyhead said: ?

Fires are probably the biggest risk to TSLA, even though they are an unwarranted risk; but still real due to public perception. If we don't have any fires over the next year (probably impossible), or just a very small amount of fires (by the public's perception standards) then I still see TSLA going to $300-$400 by spring 2015, IF:

- Tesla is able to execute and deliver 40K - 50K Model S in 2014; and ~5K Model X in 2014 without any bugs.
- Tesla guides towards 80k+ Model S and X deliveries in 2015.
- Model E still on track to debut in 2016-17 time frame.
- No other major setbacks

You can call this perfect execution if you want, but there is still a clear path towards a $400 share price within 18 months. We just can't have anymore fires, because they might scare away potential buyers and that affects demand.

I am a buyer of TSLA, but solar is still has a significantly better risk/reward profile for the buy and hold investor and that is where the vast majority of my money is. I just couldn't ignore TSLA at these valuations.
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I agree the odds of no more fires for a year are less than zero (you'd have to remove ModelSs from current customers to achieve). If fires is something an investor believes cannot be overcome, I would suggest not investing at all or even shorting. We'll be seeing more and more fires with more Ss on the road, in fact as people learn they can survive a concrete wall in a modelS, the more we'll see of it.

Thanks for the synopsis sleepy.
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Sleepy, I sold my CSIQ Jan '14 and Apr '14 calls for a lofty profit to offset the expected painful loss of TSLA 160 Dec '13 calls. (I don't have a tax free account and also don't want to risk a repeat of expiring worthlessly with CSIQ.)

I put half of the proceeds in TSLA 150 Jan '16 @ 31 cost, and the remaining I will hold in case TSLA goes down further. What are your thoughts on CSIQ OTM calls right now, e.g. Jan '15 or '16 at 35 or 40 strike? CSIQ still near ATH so better to wait and see?
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I'm also interested on CSIQ OTM calls play from your perspective sleepy. It seems like the chart is saying CSIQ will continue to rise for a while. TSLA is just tanking and I don't know when it would recover. Playing puts with TSLA is looking like a winner, but the up/down/sideways trading is crazy.
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mulder1231 said: ?

What are your thoughts on CSIQ OTM calls right now, e.g. Jan '15 or '16 at 35 or 40 strike? CSIQ still near ATH so better to wait and see?
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CSIQ is due to go much much higher. When? Once the street wakes up. Could be this week, next month, or later next year. It's always safer to wait for a drop before buying options on solar but who knows when the next drop is. It's too hard to time solar.

Buy and hold!
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mulder1231 said: ?

Sleepy, I sold my CSIQ Jan '14 and Apr '14 calls for a lofty profit to offset the expected painful loss of TSLA 160 Dec '13 calls. (I don't have a tax free account and also don't want to risk a repeat of expiring worthlessly with CSIQ.)

I put half of the proceeds in TSLA 150 Jan '16 @ 31 cost, and the remaining I will hold in case TSLA goes down further. What are your thoughts on CSIQ OTM calls right now, e.g. Jan '15 or '16 at 35 or 40 strike? CSIQ still near ATH so better to wait and see?
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First of all good job on taking profits on CSIQ. I take profits differently than simply selling, I sell a higher strike call to create a delayed construct bull call spread.

Maybe someone can confirm or correct me, but since you sold your Jan and Apr options today you will be taxed in 2013 (this part I know for sure). I on the other hand actually sold some Apr higher strike calls today against my open long position to create such bull call spread, and I will not get taxed until next year (if profit is still there). Anybody know if this is correct? This is my understanding of tax law. BTW I have undergraduate and graduate degree in accounting (and my wife is a CPA) and I still can't figure out options taxation.

This is how I value options: You bought Jan' 16 TSLA options that are 25% OTM for 25% of underlying share price. In order to buy CSIQ J16 options 25% OTM, you are looking at $38, but only $37's are available (so they should be cheaper). But they will cost you about $11.50, which is about 37% of underlying share price. So the $38's would cost ~40%. IMO it makes no sense to spend that much on an OTM option.

I think it would make more sense to buy the $12 options at $21.5, but then you aren't really getting any leverage; so it kind of defeats the purpose. I really don't see any value in buying LEAPS for CSIQ or JKS; their IV's are way too high and there is not enough reward for the risk you are taking. Unfortunately the best way to play solar is with stock. If you want to gamble a tiny amount of money then buy some short term options when these stocks pull back 20%-30%, but be ready to lose 100% of investment so make it very small. Shares are the best way to play solar stocks. The easy money has been made already and it might be difficult to make money in options in the future.

TSLA on the other hand is a better candidate due to slightly, albeit still high IV. If TSLA could consolidate and stay around $120 for another month then these options should become a lot cheaper. I have been buying up TSLA a little bit every day, but I am waiting for this consolidation and hope to buy a lot more options a lot cheaper in December. Maybe wishful thinking on my part, but I see no catalysts to propel TSLA a lot higher in the short run; unless Tesla issues 2014 guidance out of the blue, but that will not happen until Q4 ER IMO.

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AMZN, another high flying stock has 25% OTM J16 options that cost 10% of underlying share price vs. 25% for TSLA. So TSLA options are still expensive right now.
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Good reply. I noticed that the options available for CSIQ and JKS are far out, and that's asking for manipulation to make some options worthless. That's definitely risky. Thanks for your valuable input.
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TSLA Final Capitulation

In my opinion TSLA will experience final capitulation in the very near future when it hits strong support at ~$109, which happens to coincide with the 200 day moving average. If TSLA were to cross the $110 mark, it will be very short-lived and will lead to a very strong technical bounce. That will be the last time we see $110.

This is just my speculative prediction, because there are so many things that can change on a daily basis based on news that comes out. It is possible that we hit our bottom already today, and there is a chance that another car runs over debris and starts on fire causing TSLA to drop to $80.

But at this moment the odds imo favor a $109 bottom and it will later be proven to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

I have been accumulating TSLA every single day over the past seven trading days. I am ready to buy a lot more at $110. If it goes down to $80, I will buy even more.

It is amazing that I see so many bearish posts on TSLA on TMC lately: I see people considering to go short TSLA or buying puts now that it is at $120. I am doing the exact opposite and accumulating. Even though I started buying in the high $130s, as it goes lower I am buying higher volumes, so my avg. cost basis is on the low end of my purchases. If it goes to $80, I might have to go all-in. The story on TSLA has not changed. Remember what the near future will bring: 40k cars in 2014, 80k in 2015. Think how the market is going to react when this happens.

Demand might be smaller due to fires, which means that demand is now 200% of supply instead of 250% of supply if I had to guess. Once demand starts dropping off towards 100% of supply Tesla can begin advertising. As long as we are not seeing any Tesla ads on TV, internet, or radio; there is nothing to worry about.

Warranty covering fires is brilliant. Now customers don't have to worry about insurance rates going up. How much demand will this create you might ask? I don't know but if demand created is more than 4x the amount of fires then Tesla is making out financially (in the long run, because short run constraints do not help here). So even if there are 100 fires next year, then all you need is an extra 400 units of demand to cover the costs. There is really no downside in offering fire protection.

NHTSA investigation will come back with a report that Model S is the safest car in the world and that no changes are necessary (unless there is a few more debris fires prior to conclusion of investigation). This will be a big catalyst for TSLA, but by the time they announce the results the stock could already be a lot higher, depending on how long the investigation takes. On the other hand if the investigation drags for months and takes the stock price down with it, I will be very happy and buying more; especially if there are no new fires.

This is a buyers market and I am taking advantage every single day. The deals keep getting better and I am not stopping any time soon. Keep on selling, keep on shorting, because there will be at least one buyer every single day.

Happy investing to all.
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Happy to see you bullish again, sleepy. Is it worth selling some solars to buy TSLA?
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sleepyhead said: ?

In my opinion TSLA will experience final capitulation in the very near future when it hits strong support at ~$109, which happens to coincide with the 200 day moving average. If TSLA were to cross the $110 mark, it will be very short-lived and will lead to a very strong technical bounce. That will be the last time we see $110.

This is just my speculative prediction, because there are so many things that can change on a daily basis based on news that comes out. It is possible that we hit our bottom already today, and there is a chance that another car runs over debris and starts on fire causing TSLA to drop to $80.

But at this moment the odds imo favor a $109 bottom and it will later be proven to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

I have been accumulating TSLA every single day over the past seven trading days. I am ready to buy a lot more at $110. If it goes down to $80, I will buy even more.

It is amazing that I see so many bearish posts on TSLA on TMC lately: I see people considering to go short TSLA or buying puts now that it is at $120. I am doing the exact opposite and accumulating. Even though I started buying in the high $130s, as it goes lower I am buying higher volumes, so my avg. cost basis is on the low end of my purchases. If it goes to $80, I might have to go all-in. The story on TSLA has not changed. Remember what the near future will bring: 40k cars in 2014, 80k in 2015. Think how the market is going to react when this happens.

Demand might be smaller due to fires, which means that demand is now 200% of supply instead of 250% of supply if I had to guess. Once demand starts dropping off towards 100% of supply Tesla can begin advertising. As long as we are not seeing any Tesla ads on TV, internet, or radio; there is nothing to worry about.

Warranty covering fires is brilliant. Now customers don't have to worry about insurance rates going up. How much demand will this create you might ask? I don't know but if demand created is more than 4x the amount of fires then Tesla is making out financially (in the long run, because short run constraints do not help here). So even if there are 100 fires next year, then all you need is an extra 400 units of demand to cover the costs. There is really no downside in offering fire protection.

NHTSA investigation will come back with a report that Model S is the safest car in the world and that no changes are necessary (unless there is a few more debris fires prior to conclusion of investigation). This will be a big catalyst for TSLA, but by the time they announce the results the stock could already be a lot higher, depending on how long the investigation takes. On the other hand if the investigation drags for months and takes the stock price down with it, I will be very happy and buying more; especially if there are no new fires.

This is a buyers market and I am taking advantage every single day. The deals keep getting better and I am not stopping any time soon. Keep on selling, keep on shorting, because there will be at least one buyer every single day.

Happy investing to all.
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Sleepy. Thanks for your insight. My feeling is that we linger in the 109-122 range but probably much closer top of that range until another positive or negative (hopefully not) catalyst arises. If nothing happens until Q4ER, then that will be the catalyst.

Recently you were of the opinion that there was a better risk/reward ratio with many of the solar companies compared to TSLA. Given TSLAs recent drop and your prediction above do you feel that new money going into the market would be better placed in solars or TSLA?
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MikeC said: ?

Happy to see you bullish again, sleepy. Is it worth selling some solars to buy TSLA?
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AlMc said: ?

Sleepy. Thanks for your insight. My feeling is that we linger in the 109-122 range but probably much closer top of that range until another positive or negative (hopefully not) catalyst arises. If nothing happens until Q4ER, then that will be the catalyst.

Recently you were of the opinion that there was a better risk/reward ratio with many of the solar companies compared to TSLA. Given TSLAs recent drop and your prediction above do you feel that new money going into the market would be better placed in solars or TSLA?
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Most of my money is still in solar, but now I have about 20% TSLA exposure if I had to guess. It was virtually 0% just a week and a half ago. I have been buying mostly options, so it makes sense for me to buy some TSLA now. TSLA is down 38% and its IV is lower than solar options. So from this stand point TSLA has become attractive again and that is why I can justify buying TSLA.

When it comes to shares, there is no doubt in my mind that solar still represents the better short term risk/reward ratio. Some of these stocks are so cheap, such as SOL, that (barring a major recession) there really isn't much downside risk if you have at least a 12 month investment horizon. I can't say the same thing for TSLA though, because as much as I believe in Tesla, if this fire problem becomes worse it could really hurt the company. I see a lot more risk with TSLA and still less upside than with some of the solar companies (but you have to do your research to know which ones to pick and when).

Even though I am buying TSLA, I hope that there are no more fires or other mechanical problems, and I am hoping that the stock continues its downward spiral. That is my style of investing: when I buy a stock, I pray that it goes down so I can get more of it cheaper. I liked TSLA at $139, so I like it a lot more at $120. I will love TSLA at $110.

That is how I started buying SPWR in spring 2012 at $7, then more at $5, even more at $4. Every paycheck that contributed into my 401k was an extra 100 shares of SPWR; it was so cheap that I didn't even mind the ~2% transaction fee on such low dollar purchases. Now I would need about 8 paychecks worth of 401k contributions to buy 100 shares of SPWR. I like it when my stocks go down, unless of course I am already 100% all in. But even when I was 100% solar, I still diversified among 4 or 5 companies.
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sleepyhead said: ?

Remember what the near future will bring: 40k cars in 2014, 80k in 2015. Think how the market is going to react when this happens.
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I remember strongly believing these things prior to Q3 ER, but afterwards I haven't felt anywhere near 100% sure anymore. At least now there is more upside potential if this (or better!) does indeed become realized.

sleepyhead said: ?

NHTSA investigation will come back with a report that Model S is the safest car in the world and that no changes are necessary (unless there is a few more debris fires prior to conclusion of investigation). This will be a big catalyst for TSLA, but by the time they announce the results the stock could already be a lot higher, depending on how long the investigation takes. On the other hand if the investigation drags for months and takes the stock price down with it, I will be very happy and buying more; especially if there are no new fires.
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I believe you are right. The chance that you aren't though scares me (and apparently all the people selling). Even if there's <1% chance of NHTSA forcing some kind of major recall or we start seeing a large number of fires occurring the results could be disastrous in regards to public perception even though the actual financial results are survivable and lead to a severely undervalued stock price for quite some time.

They say to be greedy when other are fearful. I was pretty good at this from $34 up to $194, buying dips and not selling. Since then I feel like I've been stupid when others are fearful. Too bad I'm too much of a novice to know the difference. Luckily the higher TSLA went the more I took out of short term options. As far as realized losses I don't have too much to complain about.

I want to believe Tesla really will be a major auto manufacturer some day and having a Model S helps me believe it's possible. If I hadn't sold out some options and gotten a Model S I'd probably sold out everything a long time ago. As for now I'm thinking I might buy some Jan 16 LEAPS if it goes down towards $110 and nothing new comes out in the bad news department. That gives plenty of time for things to work out even if things get much worse from here before they get better. Otherwise I am happy right now with my current portfolio allocation to TSLA (today came out to 33.3%). Each day that goes by is one more day closer to the Q4 ER with hopefully awesome 2014 guidance.

Thank you for your positive post.
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sleepyhead said: ?

That is how I started buying SPWR in spring 2012 at $7, then more at $5, even more at $4.
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This is how i am playing SOL right now. Just bought a couple hundred more shares today and averaged down a bit. If they tank on the ER for some dumb reason, i am going to buy more.
Sleepy, did you see the video i posted in the solar thread? whats your take on the hate that guys is slinging?
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Jonathan Hewitt said: ?

I remember strongly believing these things prior to Q4 ER, but afterwards I haven't felt anywhere near 100% sure anymore. At least now there is more upside potential if this (or better!) does indeed become realized.
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I assume you meant Q3 ER. But why are you not as sure anymore? I think you are letting negative sentiment getting into your head. That is why it is so hard to make proper investment decisions in the stock market. If the stock goes back up to $150 next, I would bet that you will start thinking that these goals are attainable, by which time it will be too late to buy. You really have to get greedy when others are fearful

TSLA is down 38%, and I had a goal of 40%-50% before bottoming out. So the $110 mark will fit that perfectly at 43%.

Can you please tell me why you don't believe in 40k in 2014 and 80k in 2015? What has changed in two weeks? Are supplier constraints going to last a lot longer than expected? Do you think demand will go down and become an issue? Curious to hear why you changed your mind.

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fjm9898 said: ?

This is how i am playing SOL right now. Just bought a couple hundred more shares today and averaged down a bit. If they tank on the ER for some dumb reason, i am going to buy more.
Sleepy, did you see the video i posted in the solar thread? whats your take on the hate that guys is slinging?
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For some reason CNBC videos do not play on my laptop, and they don't work on mobile either (CNBC really needs to get on with technology). I updated flash today and emptied out the cache and yet I still can't get the movies to work. Any other way to watch it? Youtube version?

I agree on SOL. JASO is another must buy if for some reason it tanks post ER.
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best i could do is get the transcript from the interview

john ficktorn is the founder of the company. john, welcome. great to welcome you to cnbc and the halftime show.

thanks for having me.

it's been difficult to be a short seller in this market. i don't need to tell you or any of the short focus hedge funds, and it's, you know, likely to continue or not.

well, you know, i can't call the exact top. we think the opportunity with any kind of reasonable timeframe now is really the best we've seen since starting our firm ten years ago, and really since i've been doing this since '95, and i was a short seller in the middle of the internet bubble, and in many ways, this is more competing, because it makes less sense that we're here today.

because of the fed and all it's done to spur this rally?

yeah, to a large degree, easy money drives bubbles, but here, you have a bubble that is largely driven without fundamentals in certain areas, and so, you have this crazy bifurcated market where you have incredibly cheap stocks and incredibly expensive stocks, really inside the same sector. and when the easy-money period ends, and maybe even before, as we see the fundamentals soften, you'll have the opportunity to make a lot of money on the short side.

yeah. you know, a great column, in which you're quoted, this is it, it's the bottom of the ninth. when do you know the fat pitch is coming?

you know, if i knew that, i wouldn't still be working, right?

you've got to be sensing -- if you make a statement like that, you've got to feel like we're awfully close to seeing something come right down the middle.

we see it in a lot of the stock action, whether you look at the sass group or 3-d printing over the last couple of days or some of the solar stocks that we also think are in bubble territory, these are reflated bubbles, and we're getting near a top, and you're seeing decent numbers, but they're noteating or raising, but in some cases lowering. no matter what, the stocks are selling off after they report. seeing the lack of momentum is a sign that, you know, the ship is starting to waiver.

we just ran through a bunch of names that have had tremendous gains, at least 100% on the year. what's your thoughts on a netflix, for example? on a best buy, with a big short interest there? on a micron?

well, you know, i could give you a short story on each one of those companies, whether it's based on free cash flow or the commodity commentaries around micron and capacity coming on, which it will do. or in best buy. you know, those aren't our focused positions right now, and so, i don't want to necessarily go out and speak outside of my bali wick.

but you're basically saying, are you short 3-d? 3-d, ddd right now?

i am short 3-d. and we think the entire sector is -- i mean, 3-d systems looks like almost a cheap stock on a price to sells multiple compared to say, vox on inovo, but it's had a 5 to 10x multiple expansion on a revenue basis and doesn't generate any profits, certainly not any free cash flow. so this is a bubble that's happened three times in the past. this isn't the first time you've seen a 3-d printing bubble. the industry has been around for 20 years. even the chairman of hon high called it a gimmick. it's an industry with low i.p., low profitability, and it just captures image nags, and we think it's about run its course at this point.

sounds like you're short first solar, as well.

you know, first -- first solar isn't our focus in the solar space. we think the chinese solar companies and even some of the other ones are bigger shorts, although first solar will have its day of reckoning, as well. but the chinese solar stocks, and the whole group, is up 300% this year. you know, this is a bubble that also, like 3-d printing, has burst in the past. it blew up in 2011. it's a pure commodities space. and today, capacity is in the 60 gigawatt range and demand is below 40 gigawatts. you can't have a supply/demand imbalance like that and make any money. and so, ultimately, the stocks will do exactly what they did in 2011, and they're going to correct again. and it's a great opportunity if you can, you know, if you can trade around the momentum and be there at the right time.
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Thanks for the transcript. This guy is spewing typical FUD on solar. Solar stocks up 300%, therefore they must come down. The only reason they are up so much is because they were priced below $100m market cap on $1b+ in sales. CSIQ is up 1400% in the last 12 months.

I know its FUD when he says 60GW of capacity and less than 40GW of Demand. That 60GW of capacity has been thrown around for 3 years now, and actual capacity is a lot lower. Mothballed capacity cannot come on-line because it is outdated and would need $millions to get the lines updated, which they can't afford to do because Chinese banks are not borrowing to losers and only tier 1 companies get loans. Actual module capacity is 45GW according to solarbuzz. And demand might hit 50GW next year according to them. The most likely scenario is a shortage of panels, which will lead to huge profits.

In order to produce modules, you need cells, which require wafers, which require polysilicon. According to Deutsche Bank there will be a small shortage of poly in 2014 if demand reaches 45GW. There will be a big (good) problem/shortage if demand reaches 50GW.

This guy is spewing FUD so that he can get into these solar stocks at a cheaper price. He realized that he missed the boat on solar and now he wants to get in at a discount. He knows that JKS is going to $50 and if he buys at $32, that is "only" a 50% gain. But if he can get in at $25, that is 100% gain. Either that or he is just clueless. But I doubt that money managers are really that stupid to go short an industry based on incorrect data and information. I am a part time small money investor and I have figured out the solar sector all by myself.

Typical FUD on the industry that scares away the retail investors, so that the big money guys can make money. The retail investor doesn't understand solar, so he believes what he hears from these "professionals" on CNBC and they sell. If I had time I would investigate these people myself and then bring a case against them to the SEC. I am sure that if you tracked what they said, and then what they bought, you will probably find that they are doing exactly the opposite of what they say they are doing.

2014 will be the year of solar capacity shortage and big profits for companies like CSIQ and JKS for sure. I think that JASO, SOL, and possibly TSL will join the big profits in 2014.
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interesting note - Use Options For A Chance To Buy JKS At A 69% Discount - TheStreet
i have never done put plays like this.
Seems like a safe way to play JKS, i bet just buying shares of even Calls will net you larger returns. what your take sleepy?
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sleepyhead said: ?

I assume you meant Q3 ER.
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Thanks, fixed.

sleepyhead said: ?

Can you please tell me why you don't believe in 40k in 2014 and 80k in 2015? What has changed in two weeks? Are supplier constraints going to last a lot longer than expected? Do you think demand will go down and become an issue? Curious to hear why you changed your mind.
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I really like your investment style and agree with what you have said. Long term I really believe in Tesla still and I think that's my one advantage in investing in TSLA.

From what I remember Elon said the constraints should get solved by early 2014. He said this a while ago (sorry don't remember how long, a couple months ago?) and when he said it I laughed to myself and considered it serious sandbagging. Since then we really haven't had any good indications that this statement will turn out to be true or not? I was really hoping for some kind of bone thrown to us at the Q3 ER. Q1 2014 starts in just over a month. Each day that goes by is one more day closer with me wondering if they're going to solve these issues in a timely manner. If they do solve the issues how fast can they ramp up? Elon has stated he wants to "test demand." This would be awesome, but what's the roadmap for being able to do so? I really don't know what is needed for Elon to do what he said he will do. He has achieved miracle after miracle so there's really no reason he won't come through on what probably isn't a big issue. Then again, if it wasn't a big issue why hasn't it been fixed yet? If they are making progress on these constraints why are there no updates? Are we just going off hope? The Q3 ER, as Julian Cox said, was an awesome story told in the worst possible way. Listening to it made me feel like Elon is hiding something or knows something bad that we don't. He was probably just tired but who knows? The only thing we really have going for us in this area that I can think of is that they've made excellent progress on getting towards 25% GM. I hope you have an answer to all of this that can strengthen my resolve but that is how I feel right now. As far as negative sentiment, I do in fact think a lack of positive news is affecting me. That's why I like reading positive posts from people like you.

I really don't think demand is an issue nor will it ever be, fires or not. One cool thing of having a Model S is I get to show it off to people. Seeing the Tesla grin reminds me that this car will not get old for a long time.

To summarize, it's not that I don't believe 40k in 2014 and 80k in 2015, it's just my confidence in such has been lowered a bit. I still think it's going to happen but not to enough degree that I want to play with any type of options yet. I still have all my original stock I bought in the $30s and plan to keep it.
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Don't know if it has been said in an other thread, but I think Model X will be a hit, especially after the whole debris-fire saga, because of the higher clearance. I wouldn't be surprised that it will outsell Model S. Elon has said that there will be some changes coming to the design of the Model X, that people will like. What we really need is a well timed reveal of the Model X beta.
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mulder1231 said: ?

Don't know if it has been said in an other thread, but I think Model X will be a hit, especially after the whole debris-fire saga, because of the higher clearance. I wouldn't be surprised that it will outsell Model S. Elon has said that there will be some changes coming to the design of the Model X, that people will like. What we really need is a well timed reveal of the Model X beta.
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I agree. Even though the Model S is a very nice car, I have no use for it. The Model X on the other hand is something that I want to buy for my wife and kids for their protection as well as utility. It will be the perfect vehicle and I think it will get 100/100 from consumer reports.

Once Model X comes out TSLA's stock will take off like crazy once again.
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sleepyhead said: ?

I agree. Even though the Model S is a very nice car, I have no use for it. The Model X on the other hand is something that I want to buy for my wife and kids for their protection as well as utility. It will be the perfect vehicle and I think it will get 100/100 from consumer reports.

Once Model X comes out TSLA's stock will take off like crazy once again.
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Agreed. If the Gen III was out I most likely would never have gotten a Model S, I was just too impatient to wait for it. I find it very easy to justify the price tag for the Model X once you take into account the utility and safety for transporting kids and the greatly amplified gas savings you would get compared to a similar sized vehicle. My gas savings for having a Model S aren't too significant as my previous car was a Prius C.

Model X will be quite the hit.
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Jonathan Hewitt said: ?

Agreed. If the Gen III was out I most likely would never have gotten a Model S, I was just too impatient to wait for it. I find it very easy to justify the price tag for the Model X once you take into account the utility and safety for transporting kids and the greatly amplified gas savings you would get compared to a similar sized vehicle. My gas savings for having a Model S aren't too significant as my previous car was a Prius C.

Model X will be quite the hit.
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I concur- ModX will match ModS in volume a least;
I'm in a similar camp, but due to financial considerations opted to wait for GENIII, and I will likely push that out to the ModX version of it (Xover). Guessing that will take an extra year or so. I think the AWD is another factor for lots of folks
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sorry wrong thread.
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sleepyhead said: ?

Most of my money is still in solar, but now I have about 20% TSLA exposure if I had to guess. It was virtually 0% just a week and a half ago. I have been buying mostly options, so it makes sense for me to buy some TSLA now. TSLA is down 38% and its IV is lower than solar options. So from this stand point TSLA has become attractive again and that is why I can justify buying TSLA.

When it comes to shares, there is no doubt in my mind that solar still represents the better short term risk/reward ratio. Some of these stocks are so cheap, such as SOL, that (barring a major recession) there really isn't much downside risk if you have at least a 12 month investment horizon. I can't say the same thing for TSLA though, because as much as I believe in Tesla, if this fire problem becomes worse it could really hurt the company. I see a lot more risk with TSLA and still less upside than with some of the solar companies (but you have to do your research to know which ones to pick and when).

Even though I am buying TSLA, I hope that there are no more fires or other mechanical problems, and I am hoping that the stock continues its downward spiral. That is my style of investing: when I buy a stock, I pray that it goes down so I can get more of it cheaper. I liked TSLA at $139, so I like it a lot more at $120. I will love TSLA at $110.

That is how I started buying SPWR in spring 2012 at $7, then more at $5, even more at $4. Every paycheck that contributed into my 401k was an extra 100 shares of SPWR; it was so cheap that I didn't even mind the ~2% transaction fee on such low dollar purchases. Now I would need about 8 paychecks worth of 401k contributions to buy 100 shares of SPWR. I like it when my stocks go down, unless of course I am already 100% all in. But even when I was 100% solar, I still diversified among 4 or 5 companies.
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you can buy individual stocks in your 401k? or do you mean your ira? If 401k, that's a hell of a plan you got there
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Many 401Ks offer very flexible plans. The one I run for my small business allows it. There is a restriction on options but that was just recently added.
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brysondad said: ?

you can buy individual stocks in your 401k? or do you mean your ira? If 401k, that's a hell of a plan you got there
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My company didn't allow this, but we had a few focu group meetings in different locations on different dates for different employees to discuss 401k options going forward. The main goal of this was to see if we are still happy with our provider, but I brought up the topic of allowing brokerage accounts to select individual stocks, and got everyone else on board.

Then I told my friend to go to a different focus group meeting to bring up the same topic. So overall the feed back seemed like everybody wanted this option (which is true, they just won't express this opinion by themselves or don't care) and my company added the option a couple of years ago. It is for long only positions. No margin, options, shorting, etc.

My 401k is up over 400% YTD. Glad I lobbied hard for the brokerage option. Now I have a chance to actually retire some day
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TSLA Sentiment Reversal and the Wealth of Knowledge on TMC

First of all I wanted to thank everyone on TMC for their relentless research on Tesla and TSLA. There truly is an unparalleled wealth of knowledge on this forum and I hope that everyone here is taking advantage of this as much as I am.

My TSLA Comeback
This next piece of information is about my TSLA purchases and how I went from virtually no TSLA exposure on Nov. 10 to roughly 50% exposure at the beginning of December. I hope that some of you find this useful in implementing future strategies:

Ever since TSLA dipped below $140 I have been cashing out some of my solar gains and started buying a little bit of TSLA virtually every day over a three week period ending this Monday Dec. 2, just before the magnificent Tesla Tuesday. I made my first purchases on Tuesday, November 11 after Tesla dipped back into the $130s; I have been buying mostly Jan '16 options along with shares and June '14 options with some Jan '15 options.

Only a couple of my purchases from Nov. 11 are still slightly under water (even though I bought them in the $130's and now TSLA is above $140 = a lesson in volatility + time premium). But I made most of my purchases when TSLA was around $120 and actually was able to buy a Jun $155 option when TSLA was at the bottom around $116 for $9.50, now it is worth almost $18 for a quick double; you really have to be greedy when others are fearful. Most of my purchases have been Jan '16 options in the $210 - $260 range and as of right now I hold almost all of the 52-week lows in that range; I hope that for all our sake it stays that way till expiration.

Wealth of Knowledge on TMC

Even though Curt Renz was a little quick to call the bottom on Nov. 11 at $140 based on his gut feeling, he quickly redeemed himself on Nov. 18 at $120. This time he used his (extensive) knowledge on technical analysis and claimed that TSLA bottomed out based on the golden (Fibonacci) ratio of 0.618034. Based on this ratio TSLA would bottom out after a 38.2% decline which coincided with the $120 mark.

Then after a series of positive news (after which TSLA kept going down) culminated by the Deutsche Bank research note reiterating its $200 PT, the stock went up 6% to $127 on Wednesday Nov. 27 just before Thanksgiving. I thought that the good times were over and that my chances to accumulate TSLA on the cheap were over. At that time I had about 75% solar and 25% TSLA. I thought that DB called that bottom and posted it here on Thanksgiving day:

Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat - Page 59

If you scroll down and flip to the next page, you will see that two prominent members here, DaveT and Norse, both agreed that this was the bottom; this was the confirmation that I needed to know that this is the (at least temporary) bottom. The next day, Friday, TSLA crossed the $130 mark in intraday trading, and I thought for sure that the good times of buying TSLA cheap are over, but then it slowed down a little before closing just slightly in the green.

The following Monday TSLA was showing weakness, so I quickly made my final wholesale purchases of TSLA; after all I was sure that we hit the bottom since my conviction was enforced by Curt's, DaveT's, and Norse's opinions. I was ecstatic that TSLA was trading at $124 on Monday. I took one of my wife's retirement accounts that was virtually 100% CSIQ and flipped it to 100% TSLA (still have a ton of CSIQ exposure, so no worries to CSIQ holders). I also bought some TSLA in my 401k and now it makes up a good chunk of that portfolio as well. My best purchase that day came towards the end of the trading day (usually the best time to buy options for those wondering - best time to sell is usually in the first 10 minutes of trading, but not always): I bought some June $160 options for $10.20. It was getting close to 4pm EST, and I checked the options price out of curiosity and I say bid/ask of $10.00/$10.20. I put in a limit order for full ask price as quick as I could, since I couldn't believe how cheap these options were (two days after DB called the bottom). The next day they were up about 70% and are still up 60% today.

For the newbie options traders: after TSLA first hit $120 options were going down in price, but did not get really cheap until 5-10 days due to consolidation, i.e. low volatility.

After TSLA went back to $140 the day after Germany cleared Tesla of any manufacturing defects (as well as bullish research notes from Morgan Stanley and Jeffries?), I quickly started selling some Jan '14 deep OTM options against my Jun '14 options as well as my J '15 options to raise cash to buy back some solar now that the sector has corrected about 20%; it still might go a little lower but I can't imagine anything more that 5%-10%. My goal is for those Jan '14's to expire worthless and then sell other calls in the future to continue raising cash.

What could have been
This past Tuesday (16% gain day closing price above $144) TSLA started out trading up "only" 6% in the low $130�s in the early minutes post market open. I knew that this will be the day of a huge TSLA run, because great stocks that are beaten down 40% tend to go up 20% on huge positive news days like this one. Even though I knew this, I once again failed to buy weekly OTM call options to take advantage of the situation. E.g. I could have bought the $145 weeklies for $0.15 in early trading and then sold them for a 20 bagger return by the end of the day.

I am very disappointed because even though I knew it will most likely be a huge day for TSLA I failed to make the correct options purchase decision. The problem is that it never crossed my mind to do so (failed once again) even though I mentally prepared myself for such an opportunity after missing the previous SCTY 22% move in a day. The day SCTY announced 2014 guidance I knew that the stock would go gangbusters, but it opened up only a few percentage points up (less than 10%). At the end of that trading day I realized that you could have bought the weekly $50�s for $0.05 early in the day and sold them for a 40 bagger return by the end of the day. I wasn�t upset with myself back then, because it wasn�t until the end of the trading day that I did some back testing and realized this opportunity. But I vowed not to miss a similar opportunity in the future, but I did with TSLA this past Tuesday. I am mad, because it completely skipped my mind and instead I made a different losing trade that morning with the cash I had. Just shows how hard trading really is; you may try to read, study, analyze, and learn everything there is on trading but all of that knowledge is useless if you fail to execute.

Summary
Even though I got a little bit off track with my post, what I really wanted to point out is that there are a lot of great people here on TMC and I wanted to thank everyone for their contributions. I also hope that a lot of people have bought a lot of TSLA in the $120�s (or lower) and that at least some people here on TMC realized that a lot of prominent posters all called the bottom at or near $120. I realized this and that is why I took advantage of the last great buying opportunity on Monday. Thanks again.

Potential downside
Even though I think that the sentiment has turned for TSLA to bullish there is still a real risk of more downside. The only two things I see dragging TSLA down would be:

Big market correction, which is possible but all of the economic news looks very, very positive to me. The market has been shaky because it fears tapering. Tapering will not happen in Dec. Bernanke will leave that decision to Yellen, because it would not be fair to start the taper on his last day in office. He has to leave those cards available to the new FOMC Chair. In the end tapering will not matter; all that matters is economy and right now signs point that it is getting a lot better.

Unforeseen big negative catalyst such as a mandatory recall, third debris fire, Goldman upgrade to $97 PT, etc.

Therefore, IMO there will not be any big market correction (more than 10%); and you cannot always fear that an unforeseen negative news story might unfold. In the end the odds favor the longs and TSLA has become a good stock once again. I still think we are stuck in the $135 - $155 range until we hear from NHTSA or other positive catalyst such as 2014 guidance, Model X reveal, etc. The good news is that such an announcement can also come any day: I think that the SCTY news today on battery storage is HUGE for TSLA and the market completely failed to price this in properly. Elon even tweeted:

Should mention that the battery cells used for this are 200 Wh/kg vs 250 for Model S. No short term supply constraint.

So it will not take away any batteries from the Model S. Another huge business opportunity (a lot bigger than making cars) and the market completely missed this one. The markets are not efficient one bit, this is where TSLA will make all of the easy money without huge capital expenditures (outside of giga battery factory which is needed for cars anyway). These storage devices are a huge deal, because they are higher margin than selling cars with a lot less headache and capital expenditures.

Elon confirms that Chinese Demand for Model S is Indeed Huge
I am disappointed that nobody on TMC talks about this (unless I missed a thread or discussion on this somewhere), but Elon basically confirmed on the CC that demand in China is huge, really huge.

Order now and wait 6 month or order 6 months from now and wait a lot longer.

That is not exactly what he said, but that is how I interpreted the message.

I didn�t have time to proof read, so I hope that this message is at least somewhat cohesive.

Happy investing everyone.
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Sleepy, thanks for your post. Always love reading what you have to say.
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Fantastic detail synopsis of your thoughts and process sleepy. Extremely helpful reference. Thanks so much for sharing that

Edit
And I agree, key group of contributors make this forum extremely useful! Thanks to those and all contributors!
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DaveT said: ?

Sleepy, thanks for your post. Always love reading what you have to say.
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And vice versa!

BTW, I have lost paper profits over the past month like everybody else here. My portfolio was down 50% in two weeks before TSLA saved me a little. That is my strategy: up 200% down 50%, up 300% down 60%. I just hope that my strategy works in the end. I am learning a lot of new trading strategies form experiencing with different trades. I just make up my own trading strategies and feel like I am making better decisions with each passing day. My portfolio experiences huge volatility, but I think there is a potentially bigger payoff in the end (or bigger loss).

In a vacuum my individual trade may seem idiotic, but when you take all of my trades and open positions into account across all portfolios then each individual purchase is just a piece of my overall investment puzzle. That is why I don't like to share individual trades with people here. I make some trades that I hope end up losers, so I wouldn't want any one following me into that trade.
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sleepyhead said: ?

Order now and wait 6 month or order 6 months from now and wait a lot longer.
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I'm certain that China demand is huge, but what he said in the conference call is that if you wait to order, all it will do is make you get your car later. This is standard procedure, and was similar with the Model S - people who ordered the Model S in 2009 got their car in mid-2012, which means a 3 year wait. But people who ordered their car in mid-2012 got their car in mid-2013 - which means they got their car a year later than the people who ordered it in 2009. Basically, the longer you wait to order your car, the longer you'll be waiting to get the car. Also, the line in China is only getting longer, and quite quickly since it's getting closer and closer to production. It's likely that the line will be getting longer at a faster rate than they can ship cars, at least to start, such that the wait time will keep increasing even a couple months after the car has been launched there.

But I don't think that CC thing was anything surprising. It was just a general forecast on how things will go, based on how things went with the Model S here and perhaps also in Europe. I wouldn't read it as a confirmation of anything.

That said, Chinese demand will be huge. I'd bet on it. Oh wait, I have, I'm all-in on TSLA.
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FANGO said: ?

I'm certain that China demand is huge, but what he said in the conference call is that if you wait to order, all it will do is make you get your car later. This is standard procedure, and was similar with the Model S - people who ordered the Model S in 2009 got their car in mid-2012, which means a 3 year wait. But people who ordered their car in mid-2012 got their car in mid-2013 - which means they got their car a year later than the people who ordered it in 2009. Basically, the longer you wait to order your car, the longer you'll be waiting to get the car. Also, the line in China is only getting longer, and quite quickly since it's getting closer and closer to production. It's likely that the line will be getting longer at a faster rate than they can ship cars, at least to start, such that the wait time will keep increasing even a couple months after the car has been launched there.

But I don't think that CC thing was anything surprising. It was just a general forecast on how things will go, based on how things went with the Model S here and perhaps also in Europe. I wouldn't read it as a confirmation of anything.

That said, Chinese demand will be huge. I'd bet on it. Oh wait, I have, I'm all-in on TSLA.
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Here is exactly what Elon said on China:

If you order a car for delivery in China right now, you would probably get it in mid to late Q2. I mean I would certainly recommend anyone in China who does want to order a car to place their order fairly soon, because I mean it looks like that wait time maybe accelerating. In other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. At least that's what it looks like.

He also said that they will start shipping cars in January, so first deliveries will be in February or three to four months from the Q3 ER date. They said that initial demand is pretty good too. Therefore, lets assume that if you ordered a car on Q3 ER date it would take 6 months to get it in China. The way that I interpreted this message from Elon is that if you wait until February to order the car then you might have to wait a lot more than 6 months (from order date to delivery) before you get your car; i.e. "accelerating" wait time.

The way I interpret this is that demand is so big in China that the wait times will get even bigger after initial deliveries, unlike in the US or Europe where the wait times decreased after initial deliveries as TSLA worked through the backlog.

My guess is that they plan on shipping roughly 1,000 cars/month to China and that orders are coming in at a much faster rate than that. And that every day brings in more orders than the previous day.

To me this is Elon confirming that demand in China is huge. It went completely unnoticed by the media and analysts, but one day it will become official that demand in China is huge and then the stock will go crazy.
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Thanks for the posts sleepy. I think China might be the reason why Tesla had to delay alot of the shipments to Norway by 2 months. If you order from Norway now, you will get it in May at best.

Alot of people I speak to say they are not ordering the cars because of the waiting list. I would love to see Teslas worldwide demand.
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You the man sleepy! I am also an accounting major who finds finance and stocks far more interesting than GAAP. I bought my first stock less than 2 years ago, so I don't feel confident sharing knowledge, but I do hope that in the distant future I too will be able to disseminate credible trade tips like you. Since no one else mentioned this, your negative Tesla catalysit of a $97 Goldman PT made me burst out laughing
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sleepyhead said: ?

And vice versa!

BTW, I have lost paper profits over the past month like everybody else here. My portfolio was down 50% in two weeks before TSLA saved me a little. That is my strategy: up 200% down 50%, up 300% down 60%. I just hope that my strategy works in the end. I am learning a lot of new trading strategies form experiencing with different trades. I just make up my own trading strategies and feel like I am making better decisions with each passing day. My portfolio experiences huge volatility, but I think there is a potentially bigger payoff in the end (or bigger loss).

In a vacuum my individual trade may seem idiotic, but when you take all of my trades and open positions into account across all portfolios then each individual purchase is just a piece of my overall investment puzzle. That is why I don't like to share individual trades with people here. I make some trades that I hope end up losers, so I wouldn't want any one following me into that trade.
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Fortune favors the bold, but the one who has a strategy. You will succeed.
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sleepyhead said: ?

Here is exactly what Elon said on China:

If you order a car for delivery in China right now, you would probably get it in mid to late Q2. I mean I would certainly recommend anyone in China who does want to order a car to place their order fairly soon, because I mean it looks like that wait time maybe accelerating. In other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. At least that's what it looks like.

He also said that they will start shipping cars in January, so first deliveries will be in February or three to four months from the Q3 ER date. They said that initial demand is pretty good too. Therefore, lets assume that if you ordered a car on Q3 ER date it would take 6 months to get it in China. The way that I interpreted this message from Elon is that if you wait until February to order the car then you might have to wait a lot more than 6 months (from order date to delivery) before you get your car; i.e. "accelerating" wait time.

The way I interpret this is that demand is so big in China that the wait times will get even bigger after initial deliveries, unlike in the US or Europe where the wait times decreased after initial deliveries as TSLA worked through the backlog.

My guess is that they plan on shipping roughly 1,000 cars/month to China and that orders are coming in at a much faster rate than that. And that every day brings in more orders than the previous day.

To me this is Elon confirming that demand in China is huge. It went completely unnoticed by the media and analysts, but one day it will become official that demand in China is huge and then the stock will go crazy.
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Be very cautious with the china story. So many companies had their stocks crushed due to unrealized Chinese dreams. Took Apple how long to get the China Mobil deal (still not done). If u are counting on china being a catalyst for tesla... Don't.
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I think folks are parsing Elons words too finely... He's not the fed chairman, and given his propensity to speak off the cuff, I suspect he's not choosing his words as carefully as you folks are reading his words.
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brysondad said: ?

I think folks are parsing Elons words too finely... He's not the fed chairman, and given his propensity to speak off the cuff, I suspect he's not choosing his words as carefully as you folks are reading his words.
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I understand what you are saying, but please read these words one more time:

if you order a car for delivery in China right now, you would probably get it in mid to late Q2. I mean I would certainly recommend anyone in China who does want to order a car to place their order fairly soon, because I mean it looks like that wait time maybe accelerating. In other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. At least that's what it looks like.

It sounds pretty black and white to me, and leaves no room for interpretation: Elon is saying that if you order now (Nov. 5) then you will get it in May or June. Therefore you will be waiting 7 months if you order today. If you wait 7 months to order then you will be waiting a lot longer than 7 months (from the date you ordered) before you get your car. So if you order your car in April 2014, then you will not get it until some time in 2015.

It seems pretty clear to me that demand in China is Huge, and I have already done my own research on this topic. I have concluded that demand in China is huge, and now Elon basically confirmed it as well. Elon is saying that demand is huge and that orders are coming in at an accelerated pace, i.e. more orders today than the day before.

Betting on TSLA because of Chinese demand is exactly what I am doing. That is how I like to invest. I see China as a 90% certainty (demand is huge, but there may be some unforeseen political risks or other force majeur events), and the market is not pricing this in at all. If I am correct then I will be riding TSLA all the way up until the market finally realizes this as well.
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brysondad said: ?

Be very cautious with the china story. So many companies had their stocks crushed due to unrealized Chinese dreams. Took Apple how long to get the China Mobil deal (still not done). If u are counting on china being a catalyst for tesla... Don't.
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If that means it is bit priced in I am buying more. Tesla success in china is a nobrainer. They love EVs, they love american cars, they are rich etc. Why should not I be 100% on China?
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Norse said: ?

Tesla success in china is a nobrainer. They love EVs, they love american cars, they are rich etc. Why should not I be 100% on China?
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Agree. Then in China the pollution issue is big. So I think that in China they really need Tesla.
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sleepyhead said: ?

I understand what you are saying, but please read these words one more time:

if you order a car for delivery in China right now, you would probably get it in mid to late Q2. I mean I would certainly recommend anyone in China who does want to order a car to place their order fairly soon, because I mean it looks like that wait time maybe accelerating. In other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. At least that's what it looks like.

It sounds pretty black and white to me, and leaves no room for interpretation: Elon is saying that if you order now (Nov. 5) then you will get it in May or June. Therefore you will be waiting 7 months if you order today. If you wait 7 months to order then you will be waiting a lot longer than 7 months (from the date you ordered) before you get your car. So if you order your car in April 2014, then you will not get it until some time in 2015.

It seems pretty clear to me that demand in China is Huge, and I have already done my own research on this topic. I have concluded that demand in China is huge, and now Elon basically confirmed it as well. Elon is saying that demand is huge and that orders are coming in at an accelerated pace, i.e. more orders today than the day before.

Betting on TSLA because of Chinese demand is exactly what I am doing. That is how I like to invest. I see China as a 90% certainty (demand is huge, but there may be some unforeseen political risks or other force majeur events), and the market is not pricing this in at all. If I am correct then I will be riding TSLA all the way up until the market finally realizes this as well.
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Is there any other way for the CEO of Tesla to discuss demand in China? or demand anywhere? He said "if you want a car, place your order early, because it may sell out." Infomercials say the same thing. If you think Chinese government will let Tesla build out the same supercharger network as it USA and Europe, then I suspect you are underestimating the risk.

1. Tesla without the supercharger network is crippled.
2. supercharger network (across china or just industrialized region) is part of China's next-gen clean energy infrastructure. You think Chinese government will let an American company lead the way building this infrastructure?

Not saying there's no demand or low demand. There is high demand in china for everything western (from food to cloths, now cars). But as an investor, you have plenty of cases where the China bull cases has not worked out as an investment thesis.

All this aside, remember the fall from $190 to $120? Its not due to the demand, it's due to supply. China demand will just make the demand worse. Last time I checked, WallStreet is not happy the giga factory plan.

A successful investor is an honest investor. This board is not honest with itself. It feeds off of a few cheerleaders that admit to taking %50 losses. yes, then of course you'll need 400% increases after that, because it'll take you 100% just to break even. Nothing is black or white. Shades of gray is real life. Your research in china pointed you to Electric Bikes? do you know that electric bikes are very very popular in china righ tnow? A few american companies are posed to enter that market.
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China has a pollution problem and they are doing everything they can to fix it.

China Confirms Goal for 35 GW of Solar Capacity by 2015

Germany, the king of solar has never installed 10GW per year. Their peak so far was '12 with 7.6

This goal is so large that it is astounding.

They are embracing clean energy faster than any other country. Electric transportation will be no different.
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brysondad said: ?

1. Tesla without the supercharger network is crippled.
2. supercharger network (across china or just industrialized region) is part of China's next-gen clean energy infrastructure. You think Chinese government will let an American company lead the way building this infrastructure?
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IMO the answer to this question is: yes if in China they have not a Chinese competitor to Tesla.
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Theshadows said: ?

China has a pollution problem and they are doing everything they can to fix it.

China Confirms Goal for 35 GW of Solar Capacity by 2015

They are embracing clean energy faster than any other country.
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Assuming they have any actual sunlight by then

Shanghai Scuttlebutt | Your Independent Disney News Source - Disney by Mark
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kenliles said: ?

Assuming they have any actual sunlight by then

Shanghai Scuttlebutt | Your Independent Disney News Source - Disney by Mark
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It's actually a misconception that you need actual light to generate power. The radiation cutting through particles is a different story.

The Chinese government has a very serious problem on its hands with pollution because of pollution build up and government negligence and corruption. Because of technology and globalization it's becoming harder for the government to hide things and some are beginning to realize how stupid they were to do this. To save face, I wouldn't be surprised if they have secretly contacted Musk to help them. These deals would happen behind closed doors.

What Tesla has to do with the Model S is make sure that it has the luxury aura because that is what matters for that market. If it isn't exclusive sales will suffer. What I do see happening is a mandate where government officials have to use Tesla limos to send out a message and set the tone. That and extra incentives for driving electric (such as you can drive on no-smog day in Beijing). Kandi will take care of the mass market, but it is nowhere near what Tesla has on its hands. The Model E will come at a good time because of the upward mobility of China, but this will take a serious amount of time.
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I do not generally agree with brysondad, but he's right. There isn't anything special in the china comments. He's saying order now or wait more later. This was the case with early model s orders too, and will probably be the case even moreso in a country where the cars aren't being built. This is not a hint on china demand.

But like I said last time, I'm still betting big on china demand. It will be crazy huge. But that is not what Elon is saying here.
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aznt1217 said: ?

It's actually a misconception that you need actual light to generate power. The radiation cutting through particles is a different story.
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You need direct sunlight to create power. What you are referring to creates voltage which even lightning flashes and a bright moon night will do, however there is no amperage to it which means 0 power.

Cloudy rainy overcast days usually produce about 5-10% of the max potential because even in those conditions some of the irradiance makes it through. On days like that the panels will actually have a higher voltage than on a clear day because they are cooler and they are not as heavily loaded with amperage.

Scattered light particles have lost most of their energy, which is why a leafless tree shading panels in the winter is still calculated as a total loss. If I recall correctly smog is much more dense than water vapor and would block a lot more irradiance than normal clouds and rain.

Judging by the smog picture in the article I would estimate that about 1-2% of the energy is making it through to the ground.
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FANGO said: ?

I do not generally agree with brysondad, but he's right. There isn't anything special in the china comments. He's saying order now or wait more later. This was the case with early model s orders too, and will probably be the case even moreso in a country where the cars aren't being built. This is not a hint on china demand.

But like I said last time, I'm still betting big on china demand. It will be crazy huge. But that is not what Elon is saying here.
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1. Not many people here agree with brysondad, because all of his posts on TMC have one goal in common and that is to spread doubt and point out negatives on TSLA the stock. All of his posts look for negatives on TSLA. He is probably short the stock (which I have no problem with) and only talks negatively about the stock.

Even though I was familiar with his previous posts I decided to respond to him politely. But he followed with a snarky comment that can be taken as an attack, so I will be ignoring him from now on.

2. You cannot say that "he's right". You are now talking in absolutes here, so if you want to do that then I can play that way too and say that you are wrong; both of you.

3. Here is what you wrote and you are clearly wrong (now that we are talking in absolutes):

FANGO said: ?

I'm certain that China demand is huge, but what he said in the conference call is that if you wait to order, all it will do is make you get your car later. This is standard procedure, and was similar with the Model S - people who ordered the Model S in 2009 got their car in mid-2012, which means a 3 year wait. But people who ordered their car in mid-2012 got their car in mid-2013 - which means they got their car a year later than the people who ordered it in 2009. Basically, the longer you wait to order your car, the longer you'll be waiting to get the car. Also, the line in China is only getting longer, and quite quickly since it's getting closer and closer to production. It's likely that the line will be getting longer at a faster rate than they can ship cars, at least to start, such that the wait time will keep increasing even a couple months after the car has been launched there.

But I don't think that CC thing was anything surprising. It was just a general forecast on how things will go, based on how things went with the Model S here and perhaps also in Europe. I wouldn't read it as a confirmation of anything.

That said, Chinese demand will be huge. I'd bet on it. Oh wait, I have, I'm all-in on TSLA.
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That is not what Elon said. This is what he said:

if you order a car for delivery in China right now, you would probably get it in mid to late Q2. I mean I would certainly recommend anyone in China who does want to order a car to place their order fairly soon, because I mean it looks like that wait time maybe accelerating. In other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. At least that's what it looks like.

1."accelerating" demand means that orders are coming in faster than the day before.

2. "the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait" means that you will have to wait 7 months if you order today (from order date to delivery). If you order next month, then you might have to wait 9 months (or at least more than 7 months from order date to delivery).

while you are "interpreting" it this way:

people who ordered the Model S in 2009 got their car in mid-2012, which means a 3 year wait. But people who ordered their car in mid-2012 got their car in mid-2013 - which means they got their car a year later than the people who ordered it in 2009

And you are wrong, because that is not what Elon is saying. He would not have gone through the trouble of using words like "accelerating" demand or "In other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. At least that's what it looks like." If Elon meant what you are trying to say than it makes no sense to qualify that statement with "at least that's what it looks like"

I am sorry but what you are saying makes absolutely no common sense at all. Of course it is obvious that if you order a Model S today you will get it sooner than the guy who orders one tomorrow or next month (in most cases) or next year. You are making no sense at all, absolutely none.
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aznt1217 said: ?

It's actually a misconception that you need actual light to generate power. The radiation cutting through particles is a different story.
Click to expand...

Theshadows said: ?

You need direct sunlight to create power. What you are referring to creates voltage which even lightning flashes and a bright moon night will do, however there is no amperage to it which means 0 power.

Cloudy rainy overcast days usually produce about 5-10% of the max potential
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Yeah you're both right. Solar PV produces even without direct sunlight but reduced to 50% or less, even down to 1%, depending on the density of the scattering medium. But regardless, I was just joking with irony (vs choking with smaug). Clearly (punn intended) they would be putting Solar Fields in the countryside anyway, not because of less pollution, but simple space-cost efficiency vs transmission loss. Anybody putting a major Power Plant Solar Field downtown anywhere, might as well cover the panels with RayBans (also punn intended) for the cool factor...
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40% of new vehicles in Beijing in 2017 will have to be fully electric vehicles:

New vehicle lottery scheme in Beijing (2014-2017) | Sustainable Transport in China
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sleepyhead said: ?

40% of new vehicles in Beijing in 2017 will have to be fully electric vehicles:

New vehicle lottery scheme in Beijing (2014-2017) | Sustainable Transport in China
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In 2016 too, according to your link. That's 60k BEVs in Beijing alone.

In that year, Model S/X production should be what? 120k? Beijing wants half of them.
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brysondad said: ?

1. Tesla without the supercharger network is crippled.
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"Crippled" seems a bit of an exaggeration. I've yet to see a supercharger, and yet have managed several major road trips. And there are other DC charging protocols. The supercharger network is a great convenience, but hardly a necessity.
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PeterJA said: ?

In 2016 too, according to your link. That's 60k BEVs in Beijing alone.

In that year, Model S/X production should be what? 120k? Beijing wants half of them.
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Although with a dose of reality, many of those are very short range in-city cars served by low cost scooter class (NEV acronym actually originates as Neighborhood Electric Vehicle). That said, I personally believe China market is the Tesla perfect storm if handled right. Disagree with Sleepy that it will be huge though... I believe, ginormous may more accurate, requiring its own GigaGiga factory. I suspect they may be up for that as the population begins to choke on the dragon smaug
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sleepyhead said: ?

1. Not many people here agree with brysondad, because all of his posts on TMC have one goal in common and that is to spread doubt and point out negatives on TSLA the stock. All of his posts look for negatives on TSLA. He is probably short the stock (which I have no problem with) and only talks negatively about the stock.

Even though I was familiar with his previous posts I decided to respond to him politely. But he followed with a snarky comment that can be taken as an attack, so I will be ignoring him from now on.

2. You cannot say that "he's right". You are now talking in absolutes here, so if you want to do that then I can play that way too and say that you are wrong; both of you.

3. Here is what you wrote and you are clearly wrong (now that we are talking in absolutes):

That is not what Elon said. This is what he said:

if you order a car for delivery in China right now, you would probably get it in mid to late Q2. I mean I would certainly recommend anyone in China who does want to order a car to place their order fairly soon, because I mean it looks like that wait time maybe accelerating. In other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. At least that's what it looks like.

1."accelerating" demand means that orders are coming in faster than the day before.

2. "the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait" means that you will have to wait 7 months if you order today (from order date to delivery). If you order next month, then you might have to wait 9 months (or at least more than 7 months from order date to delivery).

while you are "interpreting" it this way:

people who ordered the Model S in 2009 got their car in mid-2012, which means a 3 year wait. But people who ordered their car in mid-2012 got their car in mid-2013 - which means they got their car a year later than the people who ordered it in 2009

And you are wrong, because that is not what Elon is saying. He would not have gone through the trouble of using words like "accelerating" demand or "In other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. At least that's what it looks like." If Elon meant what you are trying to say than it makes no sense to qualify that statement with "at least that's what it looks like"

I am sorry but what you are saying makes absolutely no common sense at all. Of course it is obvious that if you order a Model S today you will get it sooner than the guy who orders one tomorrow or next month (in most cases) or next year. You are making no sense at all, absolutely none.
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He said the wait time is accelerating, not that demand is accelerating. For example, if there were 10 orders a day and 5 cars built a day, wait time would be getting longer. If orders dropped to 8 per day, you would have dropping demand but still increasing wait time. All it takes is more orders than the current run rate (well, average run rate between time of order placed and date of delivery) to make wait time longer.

This happened with early us deliveries, and will happen with china, especially in the few months surrounding the start of deliveries as is the case now there. What Elon has said is not a secret message about demand. It is a recognition of early supply conditions which he learned through experience and had already expected even before it happened here through simple projections.
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brysondad said: ?

1. Tesla without the supercharger network is crippled.
2. supercharger network (across china or just industrialized region) is part of China's next-gen clean energy infrastructure. You think Chinese government will let an American company lead the way building this infrastructure?
Click to expand...

A supercharger network doesn't preclude some other entity from building another charge network, just as it isn't stopping other networks in North America or Europe. If it is important to China policy makers, I hardly see why they would inhibit Tesla.
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FANGO said: ?

He said the wait time is accelerating, not that demand is accelerating. For example, if there were 10 orders a day and 5 cars built a day, wait time would be getting longer. If orders dropped to 8 per day, you would have dropping demand but still increasing wait time. All it takes is more orders than the current run rate (well, average run rate between time of order placed and date of delivery) to make wait time longer.
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This may come across as pedantic, but given Elon's training in physics I doubt his use of the word "accelerating"--which means something distinct from "increasing"--was an accident.

In the first example you gave, wait times would be increasing at a constant rate of 1 day per day but not accelerating. If demand drops to 8, wait time would still be increasing, but would be *decelerating*. The specific use of the word "accelerating" implies that the rate of change of the rate of change (second derivative) of wait times is positive, implying growing demand.
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dha said: ?

This may come across as pedantic, but given Elon's training in physics I doubt his use of the word "accelerating"--which means something distinct from "increasing"--was an accident.

In the first example you gave, wait times would be increasing at a constant rate of 1 day per day but not accelerating. If demand drops to 8, wait time would still be increasing, but would be *decelerating*. The specific use of the word "accelerating" implies that the rate of change of the rate of change (second derivative) of wait times is positive, implying growing demand.
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Thank you for your post. This is exactly how I understand it as well. A lot people dismiss things that Elon says, but if you actually listen to him then you can see that he is telling the whole story; while the whole world is ignoring him. Then a month later a "breaking news" story comes out and the stock goes crazy, even though Elon already hinted this will happen in a previous comment he made. I love listening to Elon, because he always spills the beans, but in a cryptic way. In the case of Chinese demand, I though they were pretty clear on the conference call in what they meant to say.

My Current Opinion on TSLA the stock:

Considering that TSLA went up 30% in 3 weeks, I think that it moved a little too much too fast. There is not enough catalysts out there to push it through the 50 day moving average right now. Therefore, a technical bounce and reversal should have been expected. I still think that we are going to be range bound in the $135 - $155 range until we get a big catalyst, be it positive or negative. I picked this range for a reason in my last megapost on 12/5/2013:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/23461-Articles-megaposts-by-sleepyhead/page16

I still think we are stuck in the $135 - $155 range until we hear from NHTSA or other positive catalyst such as 2014 guidance, Model X reveal, etc.
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The reason I picked this range is because the last great catalyst we got (German clean bill and positive analyst notes) was good enough to break us through the strong resistance around $134 (which became very strong support), but not enough to break us through the next strong resistance of ~$155 or the 50 day moving average. Since my post on 12/5 TSLA traded in a range from just under $135 to just under $155. Therefore, I was exactly correct (until now) in my range and it was not just pure luck:

When you look at stock charts you have to look for the very strong resistance and support levels, and then think how strong the catalysts need to be in order for the stock to break through those levels. At this point in time, there is nothing out there that will move above the 50 SMA or below the 20 SMA. I think that we will see a short consolidation period in the mid $140's and a pennant will form. Then a strong catalyst in either direction will signal which way TSLA will break out of this pennant. The 50 SMA and 20 SMA will continue to converge and squeeze TSLA into a very tight coil and coincidently there will be some big news story on the day that the 20 and 50 cross each other.

That last part is just pure speculation on my part, but overall I am expecting a 1-3 week consolidation period from TSLA in the mid $140s.
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@sleepy, did you buy those weeklies like you mentioned a while back? Might have been too late this time b/c pre market was already up like 5%.
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justdoit said: ?

@sleepy, did you buy those weeklies like you mentioned a while back? Might have been too late this time b/c pre market was already up like 5%.
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No, I didn't because I slept in. I didn't think that the news was big enough to warrant a 10% move. But the weeklies I would have bought at market open would have been the Dec27 $155's. They were selling at $0.60 at low today, and already above $2.70 at high. Easy money, but I didn't think this news is 10% worthy though.

A lot of people are on vacation and stocks can do weird things around these holidays when a news story pops up.

Instead I bought some Twitter puts. The stock has gone parabolic, is in a bubble and the gap open will have to get filled very quickly. I don't know anything about TWTR other than its way overpriced, but this is a short term speculative trade.

As far as TSLA goes, I think that the market already priced in 90% of a clean bill from NHTSA. After Germany the Model S the stock has gone up like 20% and now another 10% with NHTSA 5-star crash rating for 2014. I think that the market has taken these two these as a precursor for a clean bill.

If NHTSA does give a clean bill then it will move TSLA a little. But if the bill is far from clean then it will move TSLA a lot. Be careful guys and stay prepared for both possibilities.

That said, I am fairly certain the bill will be clean, but that is just an educated guess on my part.
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sleepyhead said: ?

Instead I bought some Twitter puts. The stock has gone parabolic, is in a bubble and the gap open will have to get filled very quickly. I don't know anything about TWTR other than its way overpriced, but this is a short term speculative trade.

As far as TSLA goes, I think that the market already priced in 90% of a clean bill from NHTSA. After Germany the Model S the stock has gone up like 20% and now another 10% with NHTSA 5-star crash rating for 2014. I think that the market has taken these two these as a precursor for a clean bill.

If NHTSA does give a clean bill then it will move TSLA a little. But if the bill is far from clean then it will move TSLA a lot. Be careful guys and stay prepared for both possibilities.

That said, I am fairly certain the bill will be clean, but that is just an educated guess on my part.
Click to expand...

I'm in this same camp (on both actually). Been looking for a good TWTR entry, almost pulled sub $40 but it's way over priced currently. Planning to short it with puts as well but will wait closer to the reality of reporting time

Back on TSLA, also agree, I think the fire cycle is nearly complete both down and up, the better bull catalyst will be in 4-6 weeks when several events coalesce to form a reality shift for TSLA shorts
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kenliles said: ?

I'm in this same camp (on both actually). Been looking for a good TWTR entry, almost pulled sub $40 but it's way over priced currently. Planning to short it with puts as well but will wait closer to the reality of reporting time
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I find it so ironic to see people on this forum talking about shorting an overpriced, overhyped, high-flying tech stock based solely on valuation.
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dha said: ?

I find it so ironic to see people on this forum talking about shorting an overpriced, overhyped, high-flying tech stock based solely on valuation.
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Yeah, that's a fair point. Especially with my example of TWTR which I believe has a solid future. Your point would carry more weight if TSLA was not 25% off its all time high though - not true of any of the other examples. But still a valid point.

I can't decide however, whether
Tesla Investors Forum posters are bullish on TSLA (shocker),
bearish on non-TSLA all time high stocks, or
your observation of irony is perhaps, ironically overly assumptive.
In the spirit of the season,
I'll leave it to the reader.... Happy Holidays all!
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I am bullish on technology that changes our lives and the way we live. Solar panel manufacturers and TSLA both fit these bills.

My thoughts are nearly identical to sleepys as far as the future of both tsla and solar. He just has way more investing experience and ways to quantify my gut feelings.

Btw, all of my suppliers have told me price increases for solar next quarter. 2-3 cents/watt.
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dha said: ?

I find it so ironic to see people on this forum talking about shorting an overpriced, overhyped, high-flying tech stock based solely on valuation.
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I think that the correct word would be "hypocritical" instead of "ironic" :wink:

Anyway, my short put position in TWTR is not "based solely on valuation" and as a matter of fact is not based on valuation at all. I wrote that it is a short-term trade, because the stock has gone parabolic and I am expecting some profit taking on Thursday. I am looking at this as a trade and hope to cash out by the end of the week. If I were shorting TWTR based on valuation, I would be buying Jan'16 puts (well actually I would never buy them, because they are ridiculously expensive and it is impossible to make money on them).
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Theshadows said: ?

I am bullish on technology that changes our lives and the way we live. Solar panel manufacturers and TSLA both fit these bills.

My thoughts are nearly identical to sleepys as far as the future of both tsla and solar. He just has way more investing experience and ways to quantify my gut feelings.

Btw, all of my suppliers have told me price increases for solar next quarter. 2-3 cents/watt.
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Thanks for the update on solar module prices. I am glad to hear that prices are not going down (but sorry to hear this from your business perspective). The good news is that you can hedge your business module prices by purchasing stock in the companies you buy from. I am interested to hear how are the "soft" costs coming down in the US when it comes to rooftop installations?

This also confirms my suspicions that module prices are not going to come down 10% in 2014 like IHS predicts. That is why I always look to do my own primary research on the solar industry. If IHS says that panel prices are going down 10% it might cause a sell-off in solar stocks. But my research says it is not true, so I can buy these stocks at a discount thanks to IHS. Then some time in the spring or summer of 2014 the market will realize that ASP's are stabilizing and not going down like IHS said. The stocks will have to go up a lot in order for the share prices to reflect this "new" reality that I knew would happen all along.

This is how you can make the big returns in the stock market. I am not saying here that I am right and IHS is wrong. I am saying that I expect to be right and that I think IHS is wrong. And I am placing my bets accordingly. If I turn out to be right, then I should make a lot of money in the stock market. If I am wrong then these stocks should not go down too much from here, and I will lose a lot less than I could have won if I was right. That is what I call good risk/reward in my own book.

Remember that IHS (or myself) is just a group of guys sitting in front of computers all day trying to look into a crystal ball. While Theshadows is out there in the field actually buying and installing these products. Who are you going to believe when it comes to module ASP's?

Here is a well balanced article on solar that I linked to in the alternative energy thread:

First-Tier Manufacturers May Gain Profit as PV Demand Reaches 42GW in 2014_EnergyTrend PV

Even though it is a balanced article it still has many flaws in it (as do the things that I write on solar) and that is why you have to do your own research on the topic. They write:

As for USA, they may start lower the price to win market share.

Bad grammar aside, this contradicts what Theshadows just wrote in this thread. Once again, who are you going to believe? Correct me if I am wrong, but Theshadows has already received multiple price increases over the last two quarters.

IHS predicts 41GW's of solar installations in 2014:

IHS predicts 41 GW of PV installations in 2014 | Sun Wind Energy

While Energy Trend (linked above) is predicting 42GW's.

Solarbuzz came out with a new report the other day at 49GW's

Strong Growth Forecast for Solar PV Industry in 2014 with Demand Reaching 49 GW, According to NPD Solarbuzz | Solarbuzz

That is a huge 20% difference from IHS to Solarbuzz. Who are you going to believe?

Solarbuzz just 7 months ago was predicting 31GW's of demand in 2013, now it is up to 36GW's.

IHS is saying 9.8GW's in Q4 2013, Solarbuzz is saying 12GW's in Q4. Once again, who are you going to believe?

Source: Solarbuzz article linked above

Looking at the graph, the trend is pretty clear and if anything it is accelerating.

Tier 1 Chinese module suppliers are going to get the lion's share of business, because they have best perceived quality and they are great at cutting costs, so you can't simply compete with them based on cost anymore.

Here is another article (not sure if this will be official policy, and you have to take these articles with a grain of salt):

China hands to 75% of solar cell makers- Nikkei Asian Review

The Chinese government is pushing for a drastic shakeout of the country's overcrowded solar cell industry, supporting only a quarter of players and practically telling the rest to get out of the business.

Such a policy would ensure further consolidation in the industry which will lead to bigger profits by the top players in the industry.

I fear that if we really do hit 50GW's of demand in 2014 and the industry continues consolidating, then we will see a panel shortage in 2014. In the short run the stock prices of companies like CSIQ, JKS, TSL, JASO and maybe even YGE, SOL, and others will see huge spikes. In the medium term though the supply/demand imbalance will cause some unpredictable outcomes: such as higher ASP's that will lead to increased competition (from new entrants) and lower demand. Maybe we will see higher poly prices by a lot, it is really hard to predict the outcome.

If the Tier 1 players (both for cell and module makers as well as poly and wafer producers) are smart then they will not allow APS's to climb too high too fast, because this could lead to new capacity and cause another boom and bust cycle. If they are smart, then they will keep ASP's low and stable enough to earn a decent profit, but not enough for any newcomer to make a profit. They will then make their big profits from the downstream business, which is really hard to break into.

The key to investing in the solar industry going forward is to do your own research and not rely on what anyone else has to say. E.g. based on my research I believe that JASO should benefit from industry conditions immensely and the share price does not reflect this opportunity at all. If I am wrong though, then I can blame myself and won't care too much about it. But if I bought the company because someone on the internet recommended it (such as some random guy named sleepyhead) then I would be really upset if the stock went down, and I bought it without doing my own research. I would also be upset if I didn't invest in the solar industry because I believed in the IHS research and then it turned out to be incorrect.

There are a lot of misconceptions on the solar industry and all news stories, articles, and even "independent" research shops continue perpetuating these myths (such as huge overcapacity). If you really want to invest in this industry then you should spend at least a dozen hours per week researching solar. If you don't have the time to commit then I would recommend looking elsewhere to invest. The industry dynamics are constantly changing and individual stocks can quickly fall out of favor (such as SOL) and be good long candidates one day and great short candidates the next day.

The one thing I can recommend is to dismiss all research reports and news stories on solar and do your own PRIMARY due diligence.
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sleepyhead said: ?

The key to investing in the solar industry going forward is to do your own research and not rely on what anyone else has to say. E.g. based on my research I believe that JASO should benefit from industry conditions immensely and the share price does not reflect this opportunity at all.
Click to expand...

Sleepy, thanks again for your tips and your repeated warnings to not rely on your tips. What would be even more helpful to us who want to take your advice would be to hear why you think JASO should benefit immensely (what company features? what industry conditions?). That would help us learn to fish, rather than give us fish and warn us not to eat it.

Merry Christmas to all fishermen.
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PeterJA said: ?

Sleepy, thanks again for your tips and your repeated warnings to not rely on your tips. What would be even more helpful to us who want to take your advice would be to hear why you think JASO should benefit immensely (what company features? what industry conditions?). That would help us learn to fish, rather than give us fish and warn us not to eat it.

Merry Christmas to all fishermen.
Click to expand...

PeterJA,

I just used JASO as an example, but even if I told you exactly why I like JASO it is still not teaching anyone to fish because it is based on my own personal assumptions. I like CSIQ most as a Chinese solar play, and I like SPRW best as far as overall risk/reward long term. JASO is a gem in the rough type of play that might work out and pay off big, or it doesn't. I like JASO for the following reasons:

It was not running at full capacity, but it is now (or will be very shortly). This alone cuts costs by a penny or two due to under utilization. Capacity is at 1800MW module and 2500MW cell (plus 1000MW wafer). 300MW of module is not used due to manual process and will be updated and automated soon. New orders for machinery have been reported. And it looks like they are adding another 400MW-500MW of module capacity. If they get this all together then we are looking at 2200MW module capacity that will about cover all of their cell capacity. That is 540MW of module capacity per quarter.

In Q3 they sold about 300MW of modules and 200MW's of cells. Sometime next year they might be selling 500MW's of modules (and some cells). They also guided towards $0.02 cent reduction in in-house costs for Q4 and 3%-4% more in 2014. ASP's have been gradually going up for JASO as well. Gross margins should increase and lead to profitability shortly.

They guided towards 200MW of completed projects in 2014 as well. If you add all of this up then you will get close to $1.7b-$1.8b in sales in 2014. Even if they don't get the module capacity up to speed until Q2 2014, they can still earn over $1.5b in sales in 2014 which will easily beat analyst estimates.

But the real key with JASO will be margin expansion due to cost cutting in Q4 and 2014. But if ASP's continue to increase then it is only a bonus to them. They have higher quality products than other Chinese and they have a lot of mono products which are more suitable for distributed generation due to higher efficiency. DG is the future of solar and that is another reason I like SPWR.

Overall there are many things that can go wrong for JASO too, but if things go as expected this stock is an easy double. Something unexpected would have to happen to JASO in order for them to not do well in 2014.

Oh, and they have the best balance sheet when compared to Chinese peers and that will help a lot since they can leverage it to build projects, expand capacity, etc.

I just don't see much downside to JASO, but once again I am not really teaching how to fish here. I am expressing my own expectations for a company as well as the industry it is in. You have to teach yourself how to fish in this industry. The only way to do it is to do your own research by reading company conference calls, PR's, etc. read industry news, etc. and come up with your own ideas.

There will be a lot of great investment opportunities in solar, but there will also be plenty of losers. It really requires a lot of research just to have a chance to make the right decisions.
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sleepyhead said: ?

I am not really teaching how to fish here. I am expressing my own expectations for a company as well as the industry it is in. You have to teach yourself how to fish in this industry. The only way to do it is to do your own research by reading company conference calls, PR's, etc. read industry news, etc. and come up with your own ideas.
Click to expand...

You are showing us what kind of information you analyze, which is certainly better than nothing when we head to the lake. Thanks again.

If you want feedback or other ideas about your expectations, you have to tell us what they are, as you just did. How is your solar website coming?
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Sleepyhead: I don't normally join in to write write praise or just say "+1" when others do, but in this case it is more than deserved. I really appreciate your reasoning, analysis, and (occasionally) something that is so compelling that I treat it as a tip despite your own advice. You're performing a real service here. Thank you.
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ggr said: ?

Sleepyhead: I don't normally join in to write write praise or just say "+1" when others do, but in this case it is more than deserved. I really appreciate your reasoning, analysis, and (occasionally) something that is so compelling that I treat it as a tip despite your own advice. You're performing a real service here. Thank you.
Click to expand...

Thanks. This is my way of giving back to all of the great people here at TMC. I have learned a lot from everyone and believe that we have a great community here. Hopefully in the investors section we can all help each other make money with TSLA on the way up, but more importantly on the way down by hedging and/or taking directional bets.

As much as people would like to see TSLA go up in a straight line, it is not going to happen. There will be many pullbacks along the way and if we spot them in advance then we will have a chance to protect our profits. I know that some people here don't like it when I (or others) have negative things to say on TSLA, but those discussions are necessary to make good investment/trade decisions; as long as the person has honest intentions. I try to stay objective even if I do have a lot of money tied up in a stock. It is easy to get caught up in the exuberance when TSLA is making new highs every day, which makes it that much harder to spot the pullbacks when they do occur.

As far as TWTR goes, I cashed out my puts at a loss today. But before doing so I doubled down at market open and bought some Dec. $70's when TWTR was above $73. I cashed those out quickly for a 30% gain to offset the majority of the losses I took on my other TWTR puts (net loss was minimal). I knew that the stock would come back after the great open today; there was no news stories to support the move. My mistake in shorting TWTR on Christmas Eve was that I did not see the Wunderlich (who?) research report that came out that day. I checked the news feeds quickly to see if there is any reason for the TWTR rally but didn't see anything. It wasn't until after I bought the puts that I realized that there was a research report praising TWTR.

Even though I knew TWTR would pull back today, I still didn't have the guts to hold on the puts as long as necessary. I didn't want to waste more money trying to short a "cult" stock. I am treating this is a great learning experience, since now I know how the TSLA shorts felt this year. It really is hard to watch a stock go up like crazy and miss out on it. So then you decide to short it, and it goes up more. Then you double down, because you are stubborn...

Sounds familiar?
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sleepyhead said: ?

No, I didn't because I slept in. I didn't think that the news was big enough to warrant a 10% move. But the weeklies I would have bought at market open would have been the Dec27 $155's. They were selling at $0.60 at low today, and already above $2.70 at high. Easy money, but I didn't think this news is 10% worthy though.

A lot of people are on vacation and stocks can do weird things around these holidays when a news story pops up.

Instead I bought some Twitter puts. The stock has gone parabolic, is in a bubble and the gap open will have to get filled very quickly. I don't know anything about TWTR other than its way overpriced, but this is a short term speculative trade.

As far as TSLA goes, I think that the market already priced in 90% of a clean bill from NHTSA. After Germany the Model S the stock has gone up like 20% and now another 10% with NHTSA 5-star crash rating for 2014. I think that the market has taken these two these as a precursor for a clean bill.

If NHTSA does give a clean bill then it will move TSLA a little. But if the bill is far from clean then it will move TSLA a lot. Be careful guys and stay prepared for both possibilities.

That said, I am fairly certain the bill will be clean, but that is just an educated guess on my part.
Click to expand...

It's actually not that easy to get those low prices at market open. I was looking at the 160's and right at open it already had some orders fulfilled around .83 and the ask was around 1.20 or so. And a pretty big bid/ask spread. I'm guessing people that got those low prices maybe had a buy at market order or it was bots? But it was interesting looking at how those weeklies traded on Wed and today.
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justdoit said: ?

It's actually not that easy to get those low prices at market open. I was looking at the 160's and right at open it already had some orders fulfilled around .83 and the ask was around 1.20 or so. And a pretty big bid/ask spread. I'm guessing people that got those low prices maybe had a buy at market order or it was bots? But it was interesting looking at how those weeklies traded on Wed and today.
Click to expand...

That is a good point. It is important to note that you will never hit the peaks and troughs perfectly, and you really don't have to come close to make easy money. Going back to my example of an opening low at 0.60 and then 2.70 an hour or so later: Realistically, you could have bought around $1 and sold around $2 for a quick double.

I just shorted TWTR again today using $68 Dec 27 puts. I bought them for 0.45 (almost got struck for more at $0.30) after the stock rebounded a little above $71 and I quickly sold all of them within 10 min for 0.55 - 0.75 for a quick 50% profit. I am now basically back to even on my TWTR trading this week. Stock behavior was very predictable to me this morning and it behaved exactly as I though it would:

The stock opened down around 4% right around $70 (pre-market showed this would happen) followed by a quick, albeit short-lived, rally above $71, and then the stock resumed its downtrend. I used that 1 minute rally to buy my puts cheap. I sold them really quickly because they are deep OTM and expire today. I have a feeling they might even finish ITM today, but no point in getting greedy and losing the easy gains.

The other two bets I wanted to make at market open was to buy some JKS Jan calls $31 due to great news coming out today and market not pricing it in properly. Problem with that bet is that the bid/ask is too wide and hard to make money that way. I also wanted to buy a bunch of TSLA puts at market open and that would have turned out to be the best bet had I done it. But I decided on TWTR because it seemed more of a sure thing due to analyst downgrade than TSLA, which was a gut feeling.
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Good play on twtr. I was wondering if you were to jump back in due to missed timing you reported earlier. I did good with aapl by getting $565 puts. Couldn't time the low this morning, but knew there is going to be manipulation to drop it to $560 to make 13k calls worthless. I'm currently holding $69 Jan 3 puts for twtr and they're finally in the money. I wonder, what made you choose $68 puts? Looks like you called it: twtr is heading towards $68. My guess is that it'll hit $67 to make some more calls expire worthless. I thought I was doomed to buy $69 puts realizing that the big options were hovering around $70 that expires today.
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Posted the good news from Jinko on the Alternate Energy thread. Between Solar, TWTR, and TSLA, 2014 is looking to be a great year, as long as the market stays stable and no major global disruptions ( between China and Japan for example) break out. Now patiently waiting for MU's earnings next week.
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hoang51 said: ?

Good play on twtr. I was wondering if you were to jump back in due to missed timing you reported earlier. I did good with aapl by getting $565 puts. Couldn't time the low this morning, but knew there is going to be manipulation to drop it to $560 to make 13k calls worthless. I'm currently holding $69 Jan 3 puts for twtr and they're finally in the money. I wonder, what made you choose $68 puts? Looks like you called it: twtr is heading towards $68. My guess is that it'll hit $67 to make some more calls expire worthless. I thought I was doomed to buy $69 puts realizing that the big options were hovering around $70 that expires today.
Click to expand...

The reason I bought the $68's was because the stock was around $71 and I thought it had a reasonable chance of falling below $68 today, therefore I bought those. But it really would not have mattered which options I bought, since my plan was to sell them within the hour anyway. I would have done just as well with the $66 or $70, give or take.

When you make quick trades like this one, the import part is to get the direction and severity of the move of the stock price correctly. You can then make similar gains with a whole gamut of options.
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Hi Sleepy -- thanks as always for your excellent insights. I'm holding CSIQ right now for the medium to long term and it's been great to watch and learn more.

Just saw this news tidbit and wondered -- do you think this has affected or will affect Chinese solars significantly?

US solar panel manufacturers get a gift from the US military | Public Radio International

Cheers,
Flux
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FluxCap said: ?

Hi Sleepy -- thanks as always for your excellent insights. I'm holding CSIQ right now for the medium to long term and it's been great to watch and learn more.

Just saw this news tidbit and wondered -- do you think this has affected or will affect Chinese solars significantly?

US solar panel manufacturers get a gift from the US military | Public Radio International

Cheers,
Flux
Click to expand...

I like CSIQ the most out of all of the Chinese solar companies. JKS is a good one too. My underdog pick is JASO.

As far as the article goes, it is just another piece to the puzzle. 1 GW's over 5 years out of 200 GW - 300 GW that will be installed globally is only a drop in the bucket. It might have some negative effect on SCTY, since they use Chinese panels and they have some kind of contract with the US military. It might help SPWR and FSLR though. It is really hard to tell, but it will not have any negative effect on Chinese solar companies though because the total is not that much.
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sleepyhead said: ?

I like CSIQ the most out of all of the Chinese solar companies. JKS is a good one too. My underdog pick is JASO.

As far as the article goes, it is just another piece to the puzzle. 1 GW's over 5 years out of 200 GW - 300 GW that will be installed globally is only a drop in the bucket. It might have some negative effect on SCTY, since they use Chinese panels and they have some kind of contract with the US military. It might help SPWR and FSLR though. It is really hard to tell, but it will not have any negative effect on Chinese solar companies though because the total is not that much.
Click to expand...

I see it primarily as a political positive to solar as it eliminates some arguments of foes of govt subsidy to solar. Otherwise the size is too small to effect much as sleepy says. SCTY can and will source panels from other sources to supply to those customers so I disagree there will be any potential effect there.
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sleepyhead said: ?

The reason I bought the $68's was because the stock was around $71 and I thought it had a reasonable chance of falling below $68 today, therefore I bought those. But it really would not have mattered which options I bought, since my plan was to sell them within the hour anyway. I would have done just as well with the $66 or $70, give or take.

When you make quick trades like this one, the import part is to get the direction and severity of the move of the stock price correctly. You can then make similar gains with a whole gamut of options.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the insight. Since the end of market for Friday has passed by, what do you see happening with Twitter in the next couple of weeks? I know you went very short timing on Friday's puts trade and not be greedy. But it sure is a crappy feeling seeing that twtr falling below $64 at the end of the day. I admit that it fell more than what I thought in one day. I was expecting less than 10%. I wonder because Twitter is somewhat behaving like Tesla when it was going up like crazy, until an analyst slams with a downgrade. For some reason, yesterday's downgrade was more meaningful than other downgrades that twtr has received in the near past. I'm just scratching my head on twtr if it would behave like tsla right after a Goldman Sachs "upgrade", or just keep on tanking to maybe below $60. It appears you were right on buying puts for twtr, but you bought a day early, while I bought during mid trading day (I was focused on aapl and succeeded with puts). It shows that you are more experienced than I with options and expecting the timing of swings.
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hoang51 said: ?

Thanks for the insight. Since the end of market for Friday has passed by, what do you see happening with Twitter in the next couple of weeks? I know you went very short timing on Friday's puts trade and not be greedy. But it sure is a crappy feeling seeing that twtr falling below $64 at the end of the day. I admit that it fell more than what I thought in one day. I was expecting less than 10%. I wonder because Twitter is somewhat behaving like Tesla when it was going up like crazy, until an analyst slams with a downgrade. For some reason, yesterday's downgrade was more meaningful than other downgrades that twtr has received in the near past. I'm just scratching my head on twtr if it would behave like tsla right after a Goldman Sachs "upgrade", or just keep on tanking to maybe below $60. It appears you were right on buying puts for twtr, but you bought a day early, while I bought during mid trading day (I was focused on aapl and succeeded with puts). It shows that you are more experienced than I with options and expecting the timing of swings.
Click to expand...

I really don't have any idea what TWTR will do over the next few days, weeks, months, or years. I only traded it as a very short-term, few hour trade. I went full circle today and bought some calls right after market open. I sold them for a 25% gain within 30 minutes. I tried this same strategy at market close on Friday and got burned. But today's TWTR trade got me exactly back to even on all of my TWTR trading over the past week.

I traded TWTR only to take advantage of some very short term price movements. I could not give you any advice on the stock though. I don't think anyone in the world knows which way TWTR will go from here. It will grow, but will it be fast enough for the market? It is definitely a gamble with this stock.

I see TSLA as a safer play than TWTR, and it is a company where you can at least come up with some reasonable estimates on what revenues and profits might be a few years out.
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sleepyhead said: ?

I really don't have any idea what TWTR will do over the next few days, weeks, months, or years. I only traded it as a very short-term, few hour trade. I went full circle today and bought some calls right after market open. I sold them for a 25% gain within 30 minutes. I tried this same strategy at market close on Friday and got burned. But today's TWTR trade got me exactly back to even on all of my TWTR trading over the past week.

I traded TWTR only to take advantage of some very short term price movements. I could not give you any advice on the stock though. I don't think anyone in the world knows which way TWTR will go from here. It will grow, but will it be fast enough for the market? It is definitely a gamble with this stock.

I see TSLA as a safer play than TWTR, and it is a company where you can at least come up with some reasonable estimates on what revenues and profits might be a few years out.
Click to expand...

Gotcha, you're in and out quick. I agree that TSLA is much safer than TWTR and is proven to grow over the years.
�

I wrote an article on the recent Tesla related FUD:

Tesla, Fighting the Good Fight

I hope you all enjoy the read. Please let me know what you think.

Cheers,

sleepyhead
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sleepyhead said: ?

I wrote an article on the recent Tesla related FUD:

Tesla, Fighting the Good Fight

I hope you all enjoy the read. Please let me know what you think.

Cheers,

sleepyhead
Click to expand...

I'll tell you what I think of it. Brilliant. And a great example of how individuals are superseding accuracy of publications and news orgs.
I especially like your point about the opportunity it creates for the small investor and I'll ditto that thought right here

Keep it up Bloomberg, CNN, CNBC, Forbes and others. All you're doing is trading your reputation for my opportunity. I make more dollars on these misinformed publications than I can count....

Well done sleepy
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sleepyhead said: ?

I wrote an article on the recent Tesla related FUD:

Tesla, Fighting the Good Fight

I hope you all enjoy the read. Please let me know what you think.

Cheers,

sleepyhead
Click to expand...

I like it, very well done!
�

Well done!
�

Excellent Sleepy, well done.
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R.S: Well done. Can any of us help push some of these accurate (more positive) articles out more into the mainstream?
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Excellent article.
�

Thanks a lot for the feedback and kind words everyone.

AlMc said: ?

R.S: Well done. Can any of us help push some of these accurate (more positive) articles out more into the mainstream?
Click to expand...

I am not a social media expert, but here is our Twitter account to which we posted the article:

Contrarian Investor (tcnvestor) on Twitter

Here is the tweet with the article:

Twitter / tcnvestor: @elonmusk #Tesla - Fighting ...

I guess you can always re-tweet it to your followers. I am not an expert on Twitter either, Norse does all of that good stuff.

Easiest way to spread an article would be to get Elon to re-tweet it I guess, haha.
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sleepyhead said: ?

Thanks a lot for the feedback and kind words everyone.

I am not a social media experts, but here is our Twitter account to which we posted the article:

Contrarian Investor (tcnvestor) on Twitter

Here is the tweet with the article:

Twitter / tcnvestor: @elonmusk #Tesla - Fighting ...

I guess you can always re-tweet it to your followers. I am not an expert on Twitter either, Norse does all of that good stuff.

Easiest way to spread an article would be to get Elon to re-tweet it, haha.
Click to expand...

Permission to post it over on the TM forum? might catch TM interest over there.

edit: Oh, I forbid Twitter and facebook in our home. I have a teenage daughter...trying to keep her out of trouble :wink:
�

good read, thanks Sleepy.
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@Sleepy

I liked very much your article and in particular I liked this paragraph:

I am proud to be a Tesla shareholder, because I know that Elon Musk and company are fighting the good fight, as are the company�s supporters, fans, shareholders, and vehicle owners. I am positive that the company�s customer oriented focus will allow it to overcome all obstacles and achieve its mission �to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.� Tesla does right by its customers; for that reason I am willing to fight for Tesla, and can�t wait until the day I become a customer myself. I am also confident that if Tesla does meet its goals then the share price will be a lot higher in the future than it is today. And even though I don�t see failure as an option for Tesla, if for some reason the company was to fail and the stock was to go worthless, at least I will know that I invested in a company that was fighting for a greater cause; that is something I could stomach losing money over.
The media may have won the battle against Tesla this time, but I am confident that Tesla, ultimately, will win the war.
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sleepyhead said: ?

Thanks a lot for the feedback and kind words everyone.

I am not a social media expert, but here is our Twitter account to which we posted the article:

Contrarian Investor (tcnvestor) on Twitter

Here is the tweet with the article:

Twitter / tcnvestor: @elonmusk #Tesla - Fighting ...

I guess you can always re-tweet it to your followers. I am not an expert on Twitter either, Norse does all of that good stuff.

Easiest way to spread an article would be to get Elon to re-tweet it I guess, haha.
Click to expand...

Anyone have an account on Stocktwits? Linking it on there would be a good idea - help combat some of the FUD spewed on there.
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AlMc said: ?

Permission to post it over on the TM forum? might catch TM interest over there.

edit: Oh, I forbid Twitter and facebook in our home. I have a teenage daughter...trying to keep her out of trouble :wink:
Click to expand...

Permission granted. If you like the article and think it is worth sharing then I would love for you to share it with whomever you like.
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pz1975 said: ?

Anyone have an account on Stocktwits? Linking it on there would be a good idea - help combat some of the FUD spewed on there.
Click to expand...

Done
�

I just put it over on the TM site. I hope everyone will try to put this out to people/outlets they know. I feel like we are David fighting Goliath here.
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AlMc said: ?

I feel like we are David fighting Goliath here.
Click to expand...

+ 1
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Nice one, Sleepy. I liked the ending with mentioning the ethical aspect of what Tesla does - "the good fight". Being on the side of reason and the future is a good investment strategy, and also good for liking the mirror every morning.
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DonPedro said: ?

Nice one, Sleepy. I liked the ending with mentioning the ethical aspect of what Tesla does - "the good fight". Being on the side of reason and the future is a good investment strategy, and also good for liking the mirror every morning.
Click to expand...

+1. Also, good to see you DonPedro. How's your current spreadsheet model looking? I'm still adapting one of the older ones you shared last year.

Cheers,
Flux
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Nice one sleepy - what's your next move!?
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bhuwan said: ?

Nice one sleepy - what's your next move!?
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Thanks.

I am swinging for the fences and loading up on JASO. It is not the obvious play and might even backfire on me, but I am going for the home run. I think that they will deliver in 2014; just may not be immediately, but I like to get in early.
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FluxCap said: ?

+1. Also, good to see you DonPedro. How's your current spreadsheet model looking? I'm still adapting one of the older ones you shared last year.

Cheers,
Flux
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Wow, thank you for the kind words! My family, my job and my "extracurricular activities" are so time-consuming right now that I just pop by in-between things to follow a few favorite threads (among which this is definitively one). I will not be able to make good contributions over the next 5 months or so at least.

I've put some "play money" into JASO without doing a tad of research on it, which is a first for me. Sleepy is betting on JASO, and I am betting on Sleepy. (No worries, Sleepy, if it goes to hell I won't blame you at all... much). ;-)
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DonPedro said: ?

I will not be able to make good contributions over the next 5 months or so at least.
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Sorry, DP, but I think we're gonna need another tsunamometer update after today...
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sleepyhead said: ?

Thanks.

I am swinging for the fences and loading up on JASO. It is not the obvious play and might even backfire on me, but I am going for the home run. I think that they will deliver in 2014; just may not be immediately, but I like to get in early.
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Common shares, Leaps or shorter-term calls, bossman?
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DonPedro said: ?

Wow, thank you for the kind words! My family, my job and my "extracurricular activities" are so time-consuming right now that I just pop by in-between things to follow a few favorite threads (among which this is definitively one). I will not be able to make good contributions over the next 5 months or so at least.

I've put some "play money" into JASO without doing a tad of research on it, which is a first for me. Sleepy is betting on JASO, and I am betting on Sleepy. (No worries, Sleepy, if it goes to hell I won't blame you at all... much). ;-)
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Thanks, and I hope to see you post on TMC a lot more often in 5 months with your great analysis.

FluxCap said: ?

Common shares, Leaps or shorter-term calls, bossman?
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Mostly shares and LEAPS. I have been buying up LEAPS last month when it was around $8.50. Now that my CSIQ, JKS, and TSL shares have done really well in my retirement accounts I sold them all last week and have loaded up on JASO in my 401k and IRA; by next week I should have 1 share of TSLA and the rest in JASO; my DCA is about $10. Both those retirement accounts were up 400% in 2013, so i am taking a huge risk here. I own about 1/5000th worth of the company in shares alone, not counting my options positions.

Now that JASO pulled back again to $9, this time I have been loading up on Jun options. June is about as short as I might go, because the company never issues PR's and just sits quiet. The stock can stay stagnant for another 6 months or longer before it takes off, that is of course if it ever does take off.

Basically right now, I am about 40% - 50% in JASO, 30% in TSLA and the rest in CSIQ, SPWR, and JKS. It is a big bet, but I like their good balance sheet, high quality/high efficiency products, and the very low market cap. I am fairly optimistic that, unless there is a big recession or sector-wide sell-off in 2014, JASO will at least not go down much from here. I think that JASO offers the most downside protection of all Chinese solar stocks, and could turn out to be a huge winner in 2014 if everything goes their way.

I think that the biggest risk is that CSIQ doubles from here while JASO stays flat, but I honestly can't see that happening unless JASO has skeletons in its closet. And we all know that could be the case, just as it was with SOL (skeletons can pop up from any of the Chinese solar companies, so watch out).

There is a lot going on with JASO, and it is on the brink of profitability. If it gets there and stays there then the stock will go up a lot; but it is not a certainty it will. I think it will, but that is just looking into a crystal ball, because we don't know how the industry dynamics will develop this year.

JASO has a lot of warrants outstanding, so these have been dragging down the stock price. Highest strike is $10.90, and once JASO goes above $10.90 and stays there it will mean that the market has finally accepted the dilution and is ready to move on. The dilution to 60m shares outstanding would add another $200m of cash into their pockets and vastly improve their already great balance sheet. That is another reason I like JASO - it will not have to go back for another secondary any time soon IMO; just like JKS did today and the stock is going down.

If you do invest in JASO, then please do your own research because even though I like what I see, a lot of people might not like it. It is more of a "where the puck is going to be" type of play. I think JASO is a coin flip: 100%+ in 2014 or ~(-30% to +30%, i.e. flat) if things don't go well for them. I like that risk/reward ratio.
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THANK YOU as always for sharing strategy!
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MikeC said: ?

Sorry, DP, but I think we're gonna need another tsunamometer update after today...
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There, put out an update. The really funny thing I see in the underlying data is that shorts seem to have "averaged up" - short interest was lower when the stock tanked, and then more shorts accumulated during the dip. A true muhaha moment.
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sleepyhead said: ?

Mostly shares and LEAPS. I have been buying up LEAPS last month when it was around $8.50.
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When you buy LEAPS, how do you decide on the strike? Are you picking something fairly deep ITM as a cheaper version of the stock?
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Sleepyhead I appreciate your sharing of your trading strategies as for me it is educational. Grateful reader here.

sleepyhead said: ?

by next week I should have 1 share of TSLA and the rest in JASO;
Basically right now, I am about 40% - 50% in JASO, 30% in TSLA and the rest in CSIQ, SPWR, and JKS.
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If I understand your post correctly your plan is to liquidate your TSLA substantial position, 30% of your portfolio, by next week. Now I am curious of the reason to hold one share of TSLA, if you care to comment.
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ckessel said: ?

When you buy LEAPS, how do you decide on the strike? Are you picking something fairly deep ITM as a cheaper version of the stock?
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When I buy options I will mix and match across expiration dates and strike prices to balance things out. I used to buy way deep OTM LEAPS to get the best bang for the buck if the stock does triple. But nowadays I buy slightly OTM LEAPS and then will sell front month call options to generate income (and eventually get burned every now and then if the stock runs too fast).

I have never bought deep ITM LEAPS before, but that is a "safer" way to play and is essentially the same as buying stock on margin - although you might be better off buying 100% ITM LEAPS than paying margin interest. It is still 2x leverage and a good margin replacement strategy with similar risks

Auzie said: ?

Sleepyhead I appreciate your sharing of your trading strategies as for me it is educational. Grateful reader here.

If I understand your post correctly your plan is to liquidate your TSLA substantial position, 30% of your portfolio, by next week. Now I am curious of the reason to hold one share of TSLA, if you care to comment.
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My TSLA position is mostly J16 LEAPS, with some J15 LEAPS, and a bunch of Junes mixed in. I sold the rest of my TSLA shares to buy JASO shares. I still have about 30%-40% of my money in TSLA now, since I think that the short term favors the longs.

I hold one share of TSLA as a hedge.
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Thứ Bảy, 24 tháng 12, 2016

Articles/megaposts by sleepyhead part 2

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