Jan 18, 2015
Roverconvert I have heard from a "source" that I should expect the Model X launch party between January 29th and February 12th now that NAIAS is over and in lead up to the earnings report on February 18th.�
Jan 19, 2015
Benz I see that this is your first post on this forum. Welcome to the Tesla Motors Club Forum.
Everybody is anxious to see the production version of the Tesla Model X.
Let's see how reliable your "source" is.
I am not holding my breath though.�
Jan 19, 2015
Cattledog It would certainly add sizzle to the earnings call. Also timeframe coincides with the 3-year unveiling of the initial prototype. Hopeful.�
Jan 19, 2015
jerjozwik ...i wonder if ill get invited to this one too.�
Jan 19, 2015
roblab I wonder if I WON'T get invited to this one too.�
Jan 19, 2015
AnOutsider If we're talking 10 days away (for the beginning of the window), Tesla would be giving VERY short notice to folks who have to make travel plans.�
Jan 19, 2015
ChadS Very short notice seems to be The Tesla Way...�
Jan 19, 2015
AnOutsider It's annoying as an East-Coaster, but at the same time I understand. They know the cat is out of the bag once the emails go out, so if they're trying to keep it hush for any reason, they'll have to hold out.
Was nice back for the Model S Beta event. It happened in October and we got notice in August. I forget exactly when we got word of the Model X event.�
Jan 19, 2015
Twiddler Oh Model X rumors. So many times you have hurt me.�
Jan 19, 2015
Vger Hmmm, I will be in LA the night of the 29th, by coincidence, but busy a couple days after that. I am hoping for a bit into Feb., so everyone has a bit more chance to get there if they want to!�
Jan 19, 2015
anticitizen13.7 Yeah, best not to build up hopes until people get invited to the actual event.�
Jan 19, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney When it comes to Tesla, there are no reliable sources. It'll only happen after it's happened and Elon's event presentation has been fully dissected to separate facts from salesmanship.�
Jan 19, 2015
Blvr888 I don't think TM would have another "launch party" without actually delivering at least a couple of cars at this occasion. And this is probably not going to happen before summer. Otherwise what's the point of going over the falcon wing doors again and again :wink:�
Jan 19, 2015
AnOutsider I disagree. The Model S was shown off early on in prototype form. Then we got the beta event with the factory tour. Then there was yet another event where they delivered cars.
For the Model X, we've had the unveiling of the original design, and I suspect there will be an event to unveil the current design (thus drumming up hype and providing information to all the thousands with reservations so that they can decide on what options they want if they choose to keep their reservation). Post that, it's likely there will also be an event for first deliveries.
For there to be deliveries at the first event that shows off the final car, those folks (likely founders), would have had to see the car, options and pricing and finalize orders before then. That wouldn't make sense. If they were ready to build and deliver cars, then they would want to do so in volume, and there's no way they're going to reveal all this info and expect folks to finalize and pay on the spot for delivery (especially since it would take months for the car to be built to spec).�
Jan 19, 2015
NigelM Most likely just well-intentioned mis-information.
1) Could be true but OTOH not very likely that Tesla will hold a major event so tight before year-end earnings release.
2) It's very unlikely that anyone in FL would actually be in on the discussion regarding a calendar window.
I'll just add that I was in a Tesla store last October and asked when they thought I would get my Model X, the answer I received was that deliveries would start in January so I should expect to configure sometime soon! That employee was well-meaning and it's human nature that they didn't just want to tell me they had no idea. (I dropped a friendly note to the Regional Manager later, so I not going to embarrass anyone by saying where the store was).�
Jan 19, 2015
AlMc Not holding my breath on this one. I just know it will be 'soon'.�
Jan 19, 2015
markb1 I'm not sure about that. They know that investors are anxious about the Model X schedule. Revealing it just before earnings would head off a lot of questions.�
Jan 19, 2015
Nubo I'll add this to my lack of knowledge. :tongue:�
Jan 19, 2015
NigelM Big marketing events during blackout periods are generally frowned upon...they can easily been seen as being timed to distract attention. Having run listed companies I can also say that management (particularly the CEO) will be extremely busy immediately before ER. I'm not saying it's impossible just very unlikely.�
Jan 19, 2015
timf A few random facts while we await an annoucement:
The Model X was revealed on February 9, 2012.
The original Model X event was scheduled over a month in advance (I see Elon quoting the exact date as early as January 6, 2012).
Tesla has a history of holding events on Thursday nights. Both the Model X and P85D events were on Thursdays. However, the Model S beta reveal was held on a Saturday. The major difference being the former two events were held at Hawthorne, while the latter was held at the factory in Fremont. Therefore, we may also see the Model X beta reveal at Fremont on a Saturday. This would also make it easier for out-of-towners to fly in for a weekend.
The Model X was revealed before the now out-of-production Rav4 EV.�
Jan 19, 2015
lodenthal Typically, they don't give much lead time. That was the case in leading up to the first deliveries for the Model S. My guess is that we are nearing the time to see a launch party. I wonder if it will be in Fremont or in Hawthorne as it was for the Model S Dual Motor. Hopefully, the former...�
Jan 19, 2015
bonnie I'm not setting aside any weekend or travel plans just yet.�
Jan 19, 2015
Lloyd Fremont is better suited with the larger parking available.�
Jan 19, 2015
markb1 That's for sure. Traffic was a nightmare at the Hawthorne D event due to Tesla's harebrained valet parking scheme.�
Jan 19, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Maybe they'll send invitees the self-parking update first to get better parking.�
Jan 19, 2015
napabill It's because you have a brown MS. Thought you knew.:smile:�
Jan 19, 2015
NigelM My view exactly.
�
Jan 19, 2015
jerjozwik exactly why i parked in the lot across the street!
that mile long line of model s trying to go to the same place was an instant red flag.�
Jan 19, 2015
Lloyd I parked early, but it took over an hour to get my car. The app showed my car over a mile away at the other end of the airport, and at the end of Jack Northrop ave. A long way for a Valey park!!!�
Jan 19, 2015
Raffy.Roma + 1�
Jan 19, 2015
roblab But I haven't told them what color I want on the X yet. I'm keeping them guessing.�
Jan 19, 2015
bonnie Custom brown paint = high maintenance established.
I think the problem is obvious.
�
Jan 19, 2015
gg_got_a_tesla Timing sounds very right to me. Ahead of the earnings call so that there are no more lingering doubts and questions about the X launch. Enough time ahead of actual production in the summer to get the specs and options out on the website after the event so that folks can absorb it all and get through the configuration and finalization process. That would also give Tesla enough time to fine tune the supply chain for the necessary parts so as to avoid hiccups in the early weeks of production.
Tesla, please, please make it happen at the Fremont factory instead of Hawthorne�
Jan 19, 2015
Twiddler I think what has given this rather dubious rumor legs is that we all know it needs to happen relatively soon. Elon reiterated the launch timing. By backwards calculation, I feel that the reveal is pretty likely to be in the 2-8 week time frame. In the sense of how long we have waited for this, that qualifies as imminent. Heck, I remember being convinced that something was going to be shown at last year's NAIAS. So yeah, I am getting pretty excited, and I am not going to allow the rumor's credibility to bring me down. Fact is, it should be coming very soon, and TSLA should react favorably. I am just no longer sitting on only one cheek.�
Jan 19, 2015
AlMc I just don't see the reveal during the quiet period before the ER. BUT, it would not only be appropriate but not bad timing to announce it during the CC....or 'soon' thereafter�
Jan 19, 2015
n88 For whatever it's worth, Space X next scheduled liftoff is on Jan 29 at Cape Canaveral... Plus any delays.
factoring in Elon's 'other' events.�
Jan 19, 2015
Subhuman Wasn't the original Model X reveal in 2012 during the same "Blackout time" and close to the ER? It would be fun to see them have a release party three years to the date of the orginal reveal. Even though the model X is quite a bit later than promised, three years isn't really that long to bring the car to market. I think GM took longer with the volt.�
Jan 19, 2015
NigelM Oooo, they have a hangar there which will be empty after the launch. Space for an X event on the east coast.
:-D�
Jan 19, 2015
bonnie At this point, two launch events would be appropriate�
Jan 19, 2015
Muskol OP is in Florida...all the pieces are coming together now!�
Jan 19, 2015
Clprenz I would like to point out"
- On February 9th 2012 they unveiled the Model X
- On February 15th 2012 they have FY2011 Earnings call....
- "D" Event had 8 Day Warning....
This is a very promising�
Jan 19, 2015
jerjozwik hey everyone, lets not go too crazy with the hype train. no need for elon to get upset again during the reveal saying you cant keep anything a secret on the internet.�
Jan 19, 2015
n88 Update: SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral is now scheduled no earlier than Jan 31 @ 6:30 PM EST�
Jan 19, 2015
TexasEV Why anyone bothers to reply to this nonsense of a rumor from some first time poster is beyond me.�
Jan 19, 2015
bonnie And yet, here you are.
Seriously, we're just goofing a bit.�
Jan 19, 2015
AnOutsider Everyone is anxious for info, what they proposed is plausible, and let's not forget the last person to come here with 1 post and inside info on the Model X had their post shut down by Tesla for sharing proprietary info...�
Jan 19, 2015
bluenation ...you guys never learn, do you?
cue charliebrown + football pic.�
Jan 19, 2015
mspisars The Flacon 9 launch is now NET Feb 8th at 6:10pm EST. So, no go on the 9th for an X reveal because they are attempting to land the rocket on BargeX! (which is a BFD � )�
Jan 19, 2015
Cattledog Model X is the payload in the Falcon 9, revealed in zero gravity (where Falcon Wing Doors work flawlessly).
Or perhaps a Model X is on the barge, and when Elon releases video this time instead of smoke and the rocket slamming into the ocean, smoke slowly lifts to reveal Model X.
Seriously, Falcon 9, Falcon Wing Doors...Falcon 9 rocket standing up as backdrop at Model X reveal.
As Bill Simmons says, "these are my readers..."�
Jan 19, 2015
SteveG3 I hope this rumor is right, but for some time I've been thinking more like April or May before we see the X.
1) That would leave two months for people to configure for July delivery (though I suspect first deliveries more likely in August or September). 2) that would minimize any disruption of Model S orders and deliveries an X reveal may create. The Model S order backlog is 3-4 months, and the X may begin deliveries this summer, but wont likely hit high volume production until late in the year. It just seems to me Tesla has strong incentives to hold off on the X reveal as long as possible so as not to risk a several month stretch of being demand constrained rather than supply constrained via X cannibalization of order backlog and incoming orders of the Model S. Again... I hope I'm wrong about all this.�
Jan 19, 2015
AlMc This is the case if TM recent history teaches us anything. Many people cancelled orders, then reordered when the 'D' came out. Many that just missed were quite upset at their 'just missed'. We get a new thread every time someone misses one of the new hardware items. It would be smart if TM can try to time deliveries of the first big production of Ds overseas before they release the X. In addition, it gives them time to get thorough real world testing of the AWD/single motor sleep to make sure it works perfectly before releasing their much anticipated third vehicle. Finally, maybe, just maybe, there will be an improvement in battery form/chemistry that can be put into the X. Reveal in the spring, Founders series, Bonnie's X, then the rest of the Sigs/production in the summer.
edit: While I believe the above to be true my stock/LEAP positions would be greatly helped with the announcement of the reveal date and firmer production time line at the CC for 4thQ2014 in mid February.�
Jan 19, 2015
spentan If it is in California, I'd prob drive to the reveal. Will be a good opportunity to test Torque sleep (assuming we get it by late January).
(I do have a Model X Reservation, so hopefully I get an invite (considering I've had 3 teslas in a year))�
Jan 20, 2015
ev-enthusiast What I did like about the D-event for the AWD version of Model S was the twitter tweet that generated a lot of awareness in advance to the D-event.
Maybe Tesla could use the same technique to build more and a broader awareness for Model S at any future Model X event?�
Jan 20, 2015
Johann Koeber Just killing time in lack of real news. You know ... the newspaper pages are always full, even if nothing happens.�
Jan 20, 2015
Johan What is this thread about?�
Jan 20, 2015
bint2k This will blow up far more then just Twitter in a hot minute�
Jan 20, 2015
Hugh Mannity I think feb 10th is the end of the mercury retrograde. All peace, harmony and zen will return to the universe. elon is a space guy, this will be reveal day :wink:�
Jan 20, 2015
Anzir We haven't seen the X yet anywhere in final guise, not even test mules with camouflage. I'm thinking July deliveries at this point are highly unlikely.�
Jan 21, 2015
AnxietyRanger It isn't impossible, though, that someone coming to grips with a hot piece of information might decide to register a throwaway account just to post. It seems quite human nature, actually. Wanting to share but protecting your identity.
Very recently some Model X related CAD drawings got out by a first-time poster and turned out to be something that got a Tesla ultimatum sent to TMC. It seemed to be the real deal. It happens.
Of course, equally, it could just be someone trolling and looking for reaction, so you'll never really know. You can speculate and try to connect other dots to see if the post is likely true or not.�
Jan 21, 2015
yobigd20 Maybe it was Elon. You know, after it seemed someone started managing his Twitter account and deleted his posts referencing future features/work, maybe he's got an itch to get some information out. haha�
Jan 21, 2015
Twiddler Just to throw a little fuel on this fire, I recently started up a random conversation with someone in the know who I overheard exuberantly discussing the recent SpaceX RUD at a restaurant. Turns out this person seems quite credible with access to the inner sanctum, but I will not go further to identify. This person stated that the MX line is ready and waiting, and that betas have indeed been produced. He alluded to this summer as being a rather arbitrary time for roll-out, stating that Elon and his engineers wanted the dual motor format to get some more real-world testing before releasing the new vehicle, citing sleep mode as a reason why this was felt necessary to start with. All makes sense to me, and this person was of high credibility IMO. No details about the release date of the beta�
Jan 21, 2015
bonnie I'm just going to wait for the invite from Tesla before I decide if things are true or not.
�
Jan 21, 2015
ecarfan Now that sounds credible. And since @Twiddler and I have similar professions, I am inclined to believe him/her�
Jan 21, 2015
bonnie Someone who truly had that kind of access to information and the *inner sanctum* would likely know better than to have random conversations with strangers about what is really going on at Tesla. imo.
I'd guess it was more likely they'd heard it second (or third) hand and perhaps exaggerated their access to info to make it sound more credible. Not that anyone would ever do that, of course.�
Jan 21, 2015
Twiddler I truly cannot think of what motive/secondary gain that I would have of spreading rumors here, but be that as it may, one can believe it or not. Whether this person (or the group that he/she was with) truly are privy to this information is up for debate, but I did not get the impression that he/she would BS about this, but you never know. As for his/her credibility within the organization, it sure would take a lot of effort to get a group together and fabricate business cards etc for the purposes of spreading false/exaggerated information. That said, as with any source, you cannot take it as verbatim, but what he/she said was very much in line with other rumors of the sort, so I felt it worth disseminating. Which, is that not the point of this thread?? At least this is not my first post!�
Jan 21, 2015
bonnie To be clear, I wasn't saying YOU were doing anything but reporting what you were told. I just question the veracity of someone claiming to have access to those in the know at Tesla, but not knowing better than to share this type of info. That's all. It was not questioning your statement of facts.
- - - Updated - - -
And to further clarify, I've heard conflicting statements from those at executive level at Tesla who have intimate knowledge of the X. I sometimes think they're playing with us. More than one person at the company has had me say to them, "If you're not going to show it to me, just .. SHUT. UP. NOW."
I do remember George B telling me about how they'd change one thing on the website and then take bets as to how many minutes it would take before reported on TMC.
I'm sure there is some true info on this thread, might be by chance, might be directly passed on by someone in the know. But again, after hearing so much conflicting info, I just want my invite to the party so I can see for myself.�
Jan 21, 2015
AnOutsider 
Staaaaahp!�
Jan 21, 2015
NigelM Seems to me that anyone with provable access to inside information might well find themselves subject to an SEC inquiry as Tesla is well into a quiet period ahead of Q4 ER. (Although I'm not questioning the poster in this case)
That's already known.
Makes sense but it's not new and has been theorized on TMC more than once.
All of us on here have a tendency to make 2+2=5 but the only thing that will add any level of certainty to a event/launch date will be the invite from Tesla. With all the things going on at Tesla and SpaceX I'm still confident enough to wager that there will not be an X event prior to Feb 18th.�
Jan 21, 2015
ohmman I have mixed feelings about the timing of the release anyway. On one hand, I'm extremely eager to see the vehicle. On the other hand, the longer we wait, my guess is that the more stable the early products will be. Now, to be clear, I expect that Tesla won't release the vehicle in an "unstable" form. However, more data points are always helpful in finding things nobody expected.
Given that Tesla is likely to make everything "right" anyway.. I lean towards seeing it sooner!�
Jan 21, 2015
yobigd20 I wonder how many "OMG I couldn't stand the delays and canceled by X reservation and ordered a P85D instead and now all the sudden the Model X is ready" complaints we're going to see...�
Jan 21, 2015
bonnie People would complain about that? Nahhhhhh.
�
Jan 21, 2015
AnxietyRanger I agree with bonnie's summary here.
The only difference being, personally I'm probably a bit more interested in the intrigue of deciphering rumors and considering their veracity - as companies won't always tell us everything we can (or perhaps even should) know, that's where the interwebs helps! One just has to keep the critical antennae tuned in all the time. Well, that part isn't much different from deciphering corporate communications.�
Jan 21, 2015
aronth5 The only thing we know for sure is that Tesla will do the unexpected so that is exactly what I expect:smile:�
Jan 21, 2015
Bradleybang This is definitely on! How do I know?
Well my fortune cookie tonight read
�
Jan 21, 2015
Cattledog Rumor confirmed!�
Jan 21, 2015
aronth5 And just as I said Tesla will do the unexpected. Imagine including hints in fortune cookies. Very creative Tesla!�
Jan 21, 2015
bonnie Finally. Some real evidence. Did you hold it up against the light to see if there was a date encoded in the paper?�
Jan 21, 2015
Dwdnjck Just one more party that I won't be invited to...�
Jan 21, 2015
Raffy.Roma So the Model X will be unveiled at the beginning of February? Can you confirm this?�
Jan 21, 2015
Bradleybang There are numbers on the back.
4 23 26 31 36 40
Maybe its some hex code like back in the Teslive announcement�
Jan 21, 2015
Hugh Mannity Ha ha ha, we better hear something soon, we are all getting weirder every day�
Jan 21, 2015
AlMc I have deciphered it: 4/23: First Founders X ( first two numbers 4,23)
8/31; I receive my X ( from 26, get 2+6=8, next number 31)
between 2036-2040 TM becomes demand constrained (from numbers 36, 40)�
Jan 21, 2015
joefee Who needs fortune cookies....I'm going way out on a limb and predict that the X unveil will be sometime in 2015!�
Jan 21, 2015
RyanT 
I've been getting the hints too!�
Jan 21, 2015
MikeL I read the first 8 or (?) pages of this thread at "work" today. Just picked it up again . . . you're all whacked :tongue:�
Jan 21, 2015
hobbes How many bags of fortune cookies :wink:?!�
Jan 21, 2015
bonnie But YOU read it all. Just kept reading. Hoping to find maybe one little nugget of when you might get to see a Model X. And kept reading. We're whacked?
You're so busted.�
Jan 22, 2015
yobigd20 
�
Jan 22, 2015
gigglehertz Maybe leaked info is why the stock's been up the last 2 days on virtually no significant public information. In fact 1 or 2 analysts have even lowered their target price. [/conspiracy]�
Jan 22, 2015
ecarfan This fortune cookie thread is one of the most entertaining I've ever read on TMC. My spouse was in hysterics over the "fortunes" posted here.�
Jan 22, 2015
FredTMC Ya. Funny thing. I got this same cookie at "pickup sticks" back in 2012 when I started buying my shares.
Damn good cookie!�
Jan 22, 2015
Earlian What if it is true?�
Jan 22, 2015
Nubo What a party it will be!
�
Jan 22, 2015
roblab Hahaha. OK, I admit to being high maintenance. But Milli wouldn't have it any other way. We love our brown paint, and we do wash the car once a week, and it always looks fantasticagorgeous shiny (we use spray wax and microfiber towels). Don't spend much money, maybe a half hour to do the whole job.
But high maintenance is in the eye of the beholder. Obvious!�
Jan 22, 2015
TEG 
�
Jan 22, 2015
aronth5 Great news. Now we know the unveiling will be next week. That is so exciting. Of course it is important to be able to pick and choose the fortune cookies that will come true.
So I'm ignoring the cookie that said "we're pregnant"
�
Jan 22, 2015
AlMc I am hoping the "Fortune Cookie Thread" does not cause TSLA to go the same way as the 'Poetry Thread'! :wink:�
Jan 22, 2015
Rheazombi How about a poem about the fortune cookie thread?
Model X reveal
Fortune cookies can't predict
Insanity grows�
Jan 23, 2015
TEG There is an intro party date,
to let us know the X fate.
In cookies we looked for clues,
and any sort of news.
But really we should just wait.�
Jan 23, 2015
andrewket I picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue.�
Jan 23, 2015
AlMc Great guys......10 point TSLA drop on the horizon!
�
Jan 23, 2015
Hugh Mannity We should go easy, tesla is not going to invite us weirdos to any party :crying:�
Jan 23, 2015
jerjozwik dono about that... saw some interesting people at the D event.�
Jan 23, 2015
Nevek When the X is rumored as near,
�Tis time to sigh in your beer;
There�s nothing to glean,
No wing has been seen,
Let alone something that you can steer!�
Jan 23, 2015
AnxietyRanger Now, there's festive spirit!
- - - Updated - - -
Excellent!
Now, that's real, creative fun. Unlike lame gifs.�
Jan 23, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney There will be an SUV X
That Tesla will be making next
But Tesla's anti-selling
When revealed? They're not telling
Leaving people increasingly increasingly veXed
Each ER adds months, oh good grief!
This summer? I've lost my belief.
Each unreliable rumor
Now met with black humor
Call reveal X-sale Sig Of Relief?�
Jan 23, 2015
eepic More rumours I was seeking,
from anything that was leaking.
Instead cookies and poetry I find,
from kind members losing their mind.
This madness shall see no end,
'till the true falcon wings ascend.�
Jan 23, 2015
Bradleybang This thread has taken a turn for the better�
Jan 23, 2015
Merrill We all need some meditation to bring us back to reality, so maybe Tesla will see this thread and realize that they have caused us to get a bit crazy. Of course once we see the real Model X and get the design studio we will go crazy again.�
Jan 23, 2015
AnOutsider I don't think Tesla had much to do with this here... The crazy was already in the pot�
Jan 23, 2015
TEG A Model X party is something we seek,
to at least get a small peek,
but nobody seems to know,
when exactly it will show,
could it be next week?�
Jan 23, 2015
NigelM With limericks here abound
Is there a moderator around
To sort this threaded mess
And end this craziness
Before we become unwound?�
Jan 23, 2015
AnOutsider I expected so much better of you Mister Bond.�
Jan 23, 2015
NigelM The tension drove me to it. :redface:�
Jan 23, 2015
TEG You were shaken, not stirred?�
Jan 23, 2015
AnxietyRanger Great stuff guys!�
Jan 23, 2015
Earlian For the first time since reservation I'm feeling pretty cosy here.
And yes, Tesla didn't started this thread, but the mental constitution around long waiting X-ies, is -in some way- a result of their actions.
Perhaps shipping psychiatrists instead of cars is cheaper.
So:
Welcome to the madhouse!�
Jan 23, 2015
Cattledog X referenced T-shirts in the short term TSLA thread. Definitely bigger than a fortune cookie!
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015 - Page 109�
Jan 23, 2015
Anzir Then Bonnie put an end to it! They were distributed last year, apparently.�
Jan 23, 2015
bonnie Sorry! They were distributed after the factory shut down was over and the additional lines were up and running.�
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