Mar 25, 2016
Kurt Foster Love that bit, never really thought of it that way. Quick and precise, thanks for the head-check!�
Mar 25, 2016
WarpedOne Is there that much demand for this car?
Many are in for a rude awakening.
This car is not from yesterday, it was first mentioned 10 years ago when the world salivated about Roadster but could not afford it.
Last five years the world salivated about S and X, did test drives, watched YT and read all the praises and still could not afford the car.
What I don't get is what is there to get.
.I have 40k, I test ride S multiple times. What am I to do, go and buy a BMW stinker? No way in hell, I'd rather walk.�
Mar 25, 2016
HankLloydRight Throughly discussed here: For Techies: What size server, etc., will TM need to handle Model 3 reservations?
Basically, there really isn't going to be a "massive increase in their web server load" for the reservations.�
Mar 26, 2016
vforvortex By my numbers...
12-15k Tesla Motors employees
5k SpaceX employees
60k+ Current S owners in USA
35k+ X reservations/deliveries
*25k (additional projected 2016 Model S sales in USA)
140k total. If I consider a 20% rate of those reserving, that's 28k. I could see a total reservation count of about 100k within the first month or 2-3 months world wide. Not too many people willing to wait 2-3 years for a car. Even if they might miss out on rebates.�
Mar 29, 2016
Yuri_G Check out this poll from CNBC: Poll: Putting down $1,000 for a new Tesla Model 3?
85% of respondents are interested in buying the 3. About 75% interested in putting down a deposit. Not a bad response out of 8000 people for a poll that has been up for a few hours!�
Mar 29, 2016
jbcarioca An ad-hoc addendum. I was at a university hospital this afternoon meeting with a number of different physicians. One of them, observing my Tesla-logo iPhone said: "...are you ready for Thursday? You're putting in an order? I confirmed, he said " so am I, it will be my first American car!" Four others were overhearing whereupon three of them said, "I'm ordering online", the fourth asked "what are you people all talking about?" whereupon he received a lecture and a strong suggestion that he, too, should order. If such things are happening I suspect we may be underestimating the appeal. None of these people had ever owned an electric vehicle or considered one, but all had high disposable incomes.�
Mar 29, 2016
ggnykk Here is a poll from CNBC. It bet this is a more accurate gauge of the public sentiment about Model 3.
Poll: Putting down $1,000 for a new Tesla Model 3?�
Mar 29, 2016
tga Maybe, maybe not. Voters are probably a self-selecting group (ie, only Tesla fans are voting)�
Mar 29, 2016
sundaymorning If it's 100k you won't get it in the first year of production. You will need to wait an additional year after the first car is delivered.�
Mar 29, 2016
hcsharp I agree it probably has a strong self-selecting bias but does that change the significance of the poll? In a few hours they have over 10,000 people voting yes they will make a deposit. I'll make a wild guess that poll represents about 2 - 5% of people who will be actually making a deposit.�
Mar 29, 2016
tga No, but 6% voting not interested at all makes me think it's mostly Tesla fans answering, and not necessarily a good sample of the general population.
But there's close to 15k votes now, and it went up ~2k in the last hour or so. Gonna be an interesting Thursday...�
Mar 30, 2016
my.S3X 100k by Sunday, April 03, 2016�
Mar 31, 2016
nwdiver We might lock that down before the end of the day
�
Mar 31, 2016
xmetal Based on the spreadsheet here, only 3 or 4 people on the forums were going to store this morning. However, there were probably 150-200 people waiting at the point I left, so clearly this release is being discussed elsewhere. While I was there, some random lady that was at the Apple store to get her laptop fixed got in line and reserved one. More than just car nerds are hearing about this, and looking through the thread about how long the lines are at every store I think it's not unrealistic that just the US stores (I see 93 listed on tesla.com) might do 30,000+ reservations today.
No matter how you slice it, this is a pretty impressive result and I'm sure other carmakers are having meetings today...�
Mar 31, 2016
pmich80 I'm a bit stunned at the turn out. I'm also so excited. By my estimates we got over 400 at each Toronto location as well as 300 or more in Montreal. So it just 2 cities in Canada we hit 1000 reservations. My estimate is that before the show tonight they'll hit 25,000 reservations across the Globe.�
Mar 31, 2016
trinites1a Great turn out at Shorthills Mall in NJ. I was number 9 in line and got there at 7am. Line is well over 140 when I left at about 10:20. The process was all but 2 minutes long.�
Mar 31, 2016
nwdiver There's ~200 stores globally... if you assume an average of 200/store (super conservative estimate) that's 40k... online reservations after the reveal should exceed in store... pretty sure we break 100k on day 1. Which is funny since analysts were predicting that for Q1...
To think of it another way... Tesla is going to reserve more cars today than they've sold in the past 10 years�
Mar 31, 2016
Cattledog Certainly by the end of the day tomorrow (may be late for some east coasters). The only way we're not there is with a server crash.�
Mar 31, 2016
subaruguru77 First time poster, sitting here at my desk during lunch reading these forums as I always do. Saw this post and immediately started giggling and tearing up at the same time. So many people don't understand how epic this day is! Wish I could have been in line today (Paramus, NJ is closest at 3+ hours away) but I'm chomping at the bit to reserve tonight!�
Mar 31, 2016
ummgood I was in Austin and was 106 in line at 7:30am for a 10am opening. When I left there were over 400 people on the sign up list (someone at the front of the line started a list).�
Mar 31, 2016
FlatSix911 Want a discount on the new Tesla Model 3? Get in line
�
Mar 31, 2016
NigelM I don't think it's going to take 24hrs to reach 100k....look at the posts on Twitter and Facebook and you'll see there's easily been hundreds of reservations per store in the first few hours alone. Wouldn't surprise me if they reach 1,000 per store before tonight....multiply by ~90 stores and also note that many people have made multiple reservations.�
Mar 31, 2016
Grendal Welcome to the forum! Awesome first post.
My prediction of 50K+ looks to be very conservative. It looks like just the store reservations will exceed 50K.
I am 250 miles from the closest store. I'm working today so I have to wait until tonight to put in my reservation.�
Mar 31, 2016
nwdiver It's not very often that the inflection point is so clearly marked...
Exciting times...
�
Mar 31, 2016
jbcarioca Nobody in this thread IIRC has mentioned the single thing I found the most amazing. Of the roughly 100 people in line at Dadeland when they opened this morning I was the only one who appeared to be a Tesla owner. Several people were asking others and nobody admitted to being a current Tesla owner. There were a few Leaf owners, some i3 drivers but almost all with whom I spoke were people who had never even driven a Tesla. I was blown away by that. One Tesla employee said he'd expected about 20% Tesla owners, but was not overly surprised since he said almost all the inquiries during the last few days were from ICE drivers.
The episode that was strangest was when a doze or so asked me to explain Superchargers, Level 2, CHAdeMO and range. A couple of the Leaf drivers were helping out with explanations. The two i3 drivers I met were clueless.
I did explain CharIn and that Tesla had recently joined the group but only an electrical engineer waiting to place an order understood the subject. It seems few people understand that the impact of that is to allow fTesla to expand free access without necessarily building everything alone, so probably vastly increasing EV infrastructure globally. Model 3 must have been the cause. Lots of techies seem to have been placing orders with that in mind, but they cannot have been more an 2 or 3 %, even though they are major influencers.�
Mar 31, 2016
Weezer Fan
In the Denver line up, I was chatting with a bunch of people, and one woman has a MS. The rest of us are Tesla fans, but do not currently own an EV. I think one had test driven a MS. I have sat in one, but have not driven one. First time poster (today) btw. Set up my account while waiting in line this morning. Been reading for a while.
I think there may be 100,000 reservations just from the stores today. I don't know if the servers will be able to handle the volume tonight. Exciting times!!!�
Mar 31, 2016
Boourns Slight related thought: Given the turnout today, I think it's safe to say that if you do not reserve you will not be getting the full tax credit.�
Mar 31, 2016
Zaxxon Anecdotal: Of the half-dozen or so people I spoke to in line this morning, half were reserving two (including yours truly). Plural of anedcote is not data and all that, and some people in line came in pairs where only one reservation was to be placed. But it would not surprise me if the number of reservations per line-stander exceeds 1.�
Mar 31, 2016
Ryan P I read through the tesla lines post, it looks as though there were an average of 200 people at each store upon opening. The lines were just for opening, I'm sure throughout the day today more people come reserve their model 3. So a very conservative number could be 300 reservations per store. If there's roughly 90 stores in the US, that puts it at 27,000 reservations.
How many international stores? Probably another 25,000 reservations, at least. I think we're over 50,000 total.
How many reserve online tonight when it opens up? Probably a good few. Maybe another 50,000.
I think 100,000 in 24 hours is very very likely.�
Mar 31, 2016
jbcarioca Nor I. In the hours I spent in line most people who spoke about that said they were reserving more than one. The two people ahead of me were ordering two each and a couple just behind me were also ordering two each. Anecdotal it is, but I wish we had good exit interview to know if that is really likely to be true. Maybe we'll have a clue tonight.�
Mar 31, 2016
eloder I had an opposite experience anecdotally. I was #11 in line and of the first 15, I believe we had four owners total (one a S/X/Roadster owner, one S and X, and the others just S owners). Myself and another person up high were EV drivers (Leaf) and rest were ICE owners.
While waiting, I saw about two Model S's drive by, one Roadster, three Volts, and two Leafs not including my own.
One person ahead of me had not heard about a Model 3 until very recently and actually didn't know much about the car or Tesla in general, he drove an Audi A4.
Either way, very diverse group and very promising. Definitely seems to be a huge amount of interest from pre-existing EV owners, that's going to put a world of hurt on people like GM who don't want to build out or contribute to a viable fast charging network.�
Mar 31, 2016
Ryan P I think Elon will announce the number tonight�
Mar 31, 2016
FlatSix911 There were over 500 people at the Sunnyvale, CA location this morning in the queue. Interest is high in Silicon Valley!
�
Mar 31, 2016
rnelsonee If the tally spreadsheet is accurate, there were 25,000 line-waiters in the US & Canada (so far, we still have plenty of lunch-breakers and stop-by-after-work people, and there's 80+ people in Honolulu still in line!). Not all line waiters ordered (my wife came for fun, for example, and I saw one or two others with family members there) but of course plenty of people put in two reservations, so 25,000 is a good estimate for "so far".�
Mar 31, 2016
nwdiver 2016... the year that...
Oil profits are down 99.3%;
AND;
An EV company collects $1 BILLION in deposits for a car that won't be delivered for ~2 years.
.... while gas prices are at record lows...
All according to the plan... glad Elon is on our side
Welcome to the revolution.�
![[?IMG]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_scu7t_6gcNLtEmwQipdDXDzqNhyB1s8tPWsqSQohnmy9n7w8CBY619zNhG2hygw-E49mia26GRbPvMjYzyFz0R_NZbmgf9eT6EUMCKUZ12azDslRXfbJ2_90fIObAJ0Q=s0-d)
Mar 31, 2016
roblab What an outdated concept! And I'm 72. As a kid, I worked on a sales lot. I knew lots of people who would wander around the parking lot and ask questions that had no relevance, and the sales guy would tell them whatever he wanted. If the color of the car was around, it got sold. Nobody can tell anything by taking a test drive other than "it's loud!!" or that it seems fast because "it's loud". I never heard until this forum that the way the dash was laid out, or the number of cupholders, could ever affect a car's sales.
And, then, of course, you're not buying anything with your deposit. You're just standing in line. If you decide later, after you have kicked a tire (hurt your toe?), that it's not what you want, you get your money back, no hard feelings.
If you prefer, on the other hand, to wait and kick tires first, which really has nothing to do with anyone's wallet, you simply have voted to wait another several years, at which time you will probably be kicking yourself in the butt, rather than kicking tires.�
Mar 31, 2016
UncleMoose Who is the speaker, and what is this from?�
Mar 31, 2016
nwdiver The speaker is Charlie Chaplin from 'The Great Dictator'
It was a satirical response to WWII... with a heart-felt speech by Chaplin since he was physically similar to Hitler.
![[?IMG]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/48/The_Great_Dictator.jpg)
�
Mar 31, 2016
UncleMoose Ah - found it - It is Charlie Chaplin from the movie "The Great Dictator"�
Mar 31, 2016
Grendal Yep. We'll have well over 100K reservations by tomorrow.
I watched a live stream from Leilani Munter this morning. It was interesting because she was asking the 175 people in line whether they owned a Tesla. Only around 8 said yes. So it looks like 95% of the orders are from new customers.�
Mar 31, 2016
Clprenz Update: I'm going to go out on another limb... 250k orders in 24 hours...
The demand at stores I think beat everyones expectations!!!! Probably ~80,000 orders from the stores alone.
I really can't imagine how many people will be reserving tonight (We are!)... but I think we are really at a turning point...
This will be the day that changed Tesla forever.�
Mar 31, 2016
nativewolf Now that is a limb. Go large or go home.�
Mar 31, 2016
FlatSix911 For those who decided to not wait in line today ...
Just a reminder that you don't have to wait till 8:30 PST, on-line reservations start at 7:30 PST
View attachment 169753
![[?IMG]](https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/attachments/upload_2016-3-31_18-34-32-png.169753/)
�
Mar 31, 2016
Big Dog "Of the roughly 100 people in line at Dadeland when they opened this morning Iwas the only one who appeared to be a Tesla owner. Several people were asking others and nobody admitted to being a current Tesla owner."
No real need for a current owner to stand in line, particularly back east. Purchases of the 3 by current owners mean that they get their cars in the California production wave. They could apply tomorrow online and jump to the front of the Florida queue.�
Mar 31, 2016
rps315 I was at the Toronto Yorkdale location around 8pm to make a reservation and there was still a bit of a wait. The sales guy estimated 2000 reservations over the course of the day. That's a lot of cars!�
Mar 31, 2016
ucmndd Willing to admit when I'm wrong, I bought some sriracha to go with that foot. Seems more and more likely I'm going to have to use it.�
Mar 31, 2016
ArtC Elon announced 115K+ reservations in 24 hrs!�
Mar 31, 2016
MikeC So how's it taste?�
Mar 31, 2016
Drumheller I really hope this wakes up the auto industry across the board...�
Mar 31, 2016
FirstSea i would really like to hear some of the conversations going on at other auto makers today and tomorrow�
Mar 31, 2016
ggnykk I'll admit, I didn't think it would reach 100k in 24hrs.
And we still have at least 1.5 years until the car comes out, how big will the reservation list be?? Good thing I pre-ordered it this morning, I'm so proud of myself!�
Mar 31, 2016
nwdiver I bet another 100k of order will show up in the next few days as well.�
Mar 31, 2016
wallstguy >500k by May... 1M by 2017... I'm sticking with those predictions�
Mar 31, 2016
vinnie97 ^Maybe even another 100k by tomorrow! Remember, the first 115k pre-orders were by people who haven't even seen the car...now that we've seen it....damn! Big surprise on Wall Street tomorrow!�
Mar 31, 2016
Yuri_G Well, you should've stayed with your original prediction.�
Mar 31, 2016
calisnow Major props to Clprenz! Very few could have imagined how big 3/31 would be for Tesla. I think it even took most people in the company by surprise.�
Mar 31, 2016
calisnow First year of production will be sold out within days. That's my prediction after the unveil tonight.�
Mar 31, 2016
SteveW25561 They are pooping themselves.�
Mar 31, 2016
Kurt Foster I think the other automakers (especially Bolt!) will wish this is all an elaborate April Fools joke! No one has ever seen lineups (even longer than iPhone) for a car (sight unseen, delivery in nearly 2 years...)! Hopefully the vast majority will keep the orders ($4 Billion in sales already!)�
1/1/2015
guest THEY GOT MORE PRE-ORDERS IN 24 HOURS THAN ALL OF THE TESLA'S EVER SOLD.
Tesla Model S Crossed 100,000 Sales Milestone This Month - HybridCars.com
(from last december, not that long ago, and I bet more will preorder it even later tonight)
This is really just wild... and I don't have exact numbers so if i'm wrong, please let me know.�
Mar 31, 2016
ucmndd Should have worn nicer shoes today.�
Mar 31, 2016
Roamer Welcome to TeslaLand. Things just seem to work a little different here. Placed two reservations.�
Mar 31, 2016
FlatSix911 6 reservations ... I'm all in as a vote of confidence.�
Mar 31, 2016
Nixx What is the presale count on the bolt?
lmao�
Apr 1, 2016
ggnykk will you actually buy all six of them?�
Apr 1, 2016
HankLloydRight There's no instrument cluster.
Everything is supposedly on the horizontal 15" touchscreen.
I'm not sure that will go over that well.�
Apr 1, 2016
cwerdna Wow... all I can say is I was obviously dead wrong and the cult of Elon is much stronger than I believed.
I'm blown away by the reservation count and the potential revenue (billions) even if say 2/3rd of those folks drop out and nobody else reserves.
I do wonder if Model 3 could have somewhat of an Osborne effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.�
Apr 1, 2016
TheTalkingMule It's not a cult and not necessarily about Musk, it's just an infinitely more compelling $35k vehicle than anything currently available.�
Apr 1, 2016
SageBrush In two years, perhaps�
Apr 1, 2016
artsci Reviewing this thread the day after it seems a lot of folks might want to retract their lowball predictions�
Apr 1, 2016
mkjayakumar
<raises hand> Guilty your honor. I predicted around 10K reservations the first day and 100k by the end of the year. Oh boy, couldn't have been happier to have been so wrong.
But I only promised to eat a bowl of cereals if I am wrong, which I did this morning..�
Apr 1, 2016
SageBrush I wonder if EM is regretting not having picked up another GM factory or three�
Apr 1, 2016
manitou820 I've seen a lot of people claiming they pre-ordered a lot of Model 3s. I'm wondering the same thing. How many of these pre-orders will be canceled because they were duplicates or people ordered more than they will actually buy. It might work out in favor of moving me up in the queue.
However, I hope people aren't trying to buy several cars with the intent of flipping if people start paying over sticker when it launches.�
Apr 1, 2016
jonnyg Was thinking the same thing. It's easy for some people to reserve more than one so that there's an extra for the spouse, kid, mom, grandpa, nanny, dog walker, etc when it's $1k each. But when it comes time to actually plunk down that $35k+ to buy the car, I'd imagine a lot of these extra reservations get canceled. A lot of people could be in different financial situations in 2 years as well, and a car they could have afforded or were hoping to be able to afford in 2018 is no longer the case.�
Apr 1, 2016
Rockster At the Dallas Northpark center yesterday morning there were 400-500 people in line at 10:30 am. At that time, I counted approximately 40 Teslas in the parking garage. Assuming all the Tesla owners parked in the same area (and didn't rideshare significantly), that suggests that about 90+% of those in line were new customers.�
Apr 1, 2016
Bangor Bob Depending on ramp rate, it's likely already sold out until 2019.�
Apr 1, 2016
tga Except that reservations are non-transferable to the spouse, kid, mom, grandpa, nanny, dog walker, etc.�
Apr 1, 2016
DrManhattan Incorrect, you can certainly transfer reservations to at least your spouse.�
Apr 1, 2016
deonb Where is this reservation counter from?
Tesla has already taken more than 115,000 preorders for the Model 3
Was at 133822 last night at 10pm. What is it on now?�
Apr 1, 2016
jbcarioca Now we need to know how many reservations are coming from BR, SK, NZ and the other new countries. Individually most of those might be small initially but for some countries the Model 3 will have incentives that will probably approach the "Norway effect". In Brazil, one I know, the elimination of 25% import duty and 7% annual car tax in Rio de Janeiro will make Model 3 actually the cheapest car in the class. That is assuming BMW, Audi etc do not bring real competition also.
Anyway I have one 3 reserved for the US and another for Rio de Janeiro. Now comes the agonizing wait.�
Apr 1, 2016
mhpr262 AFAIK the reservations are non-tranferable WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION by Tesla. I am pretty sure such a permission will be granted at least for family members. At least I can't imagine why it wouldn't.�
Apr 1, 2016
tga I debated leaving out "spouse" from the reply, but then I figured I'd leave the full list. I don't know if anyone has transferred to a spouse, but it's certainly easy enough to do after purchase at the state level. My wife and I have transferred cars back and forth for various reasons.
Maybe. Maybe not. Unless anyone says they definitely didn't, I wouldn't rely on making it happen. Certainly transfers to the nanny and the dog walker would be out.�
Apr 1, 2016
favo Elon tweeted:
�
Apr 1, 2016
DrManhattan They are transferable to spouse, they made that clear. I didn't ask about any other family members, but I don't think it would be a problem.�
Apr 1, 2016
AudubonB Uh, Randy? Even you: I think you're gonna need a bigger garage.�
Apr 1, 2016
nativewolf Ok, just to recognize a winner. CLPRENZ made a bold prediction. He was off by a bit but, maybe by the end of tonight. 200k was just passed. Hard to believe they won't get the 250k by the end of the weekend. I had jested with him a bit but, man he was right.�
Apr 1, 2016
jstoneman Well done to the tesla family. I hope they have a million pre-orders by summer-time. Thanks Elon. BMW executives are having a hard day. If you see one, give them a hug.....�
Apr 1, 2016
EinSV Based on the reservation rate so far today, I think you may win the Tesla soothsayer of the year award!�
Apr 1, 2016
nwdiver Saw this posted on Facebook ROFLMAO
�
Apr 1, 2016
FlatSix911 
�
Apr 1, 2016
favo ![[?IMG]](https://i.memecaptain.com/gend_images/YQvAcw.jpg)
�
Apr 1, 2016
Roamer After I saw that flat gray prototype I had to order. Thinking maybe a tuner model 3 would fit in with the fleet.�
Apr 1, 2016
flankspeed8 so 232k as of Elon's last Tweet a couple of hours ago...wow!�
Apr 1, 2016
dhanson865 Funny, but they do need one in Europe and another in China. Which will they build first?�
Apr 1, 2016
ggnykk I really hope that they build one in Europe instead of China. Factory in China is going to suck big time in terms of quality. Chinese people actually don't like to buy anything that is produced in China because it is always perceived as low quality, cheap, and break easily. Anything from overseas can attract significantly more demand and premium.�
Apr 2, 2016
lklundin Since the interest rate on my savings account it practically zero I placed a reservation, just as a show of support for a true visionary who is transforming our world into something better.
I think I am number 150.000 +/- 30.000 and figure delivery in 2019. I currently have 280.000 km on my 8-cylinder Audi, so by then I might need a new car. And the only car that comes into consideration would also need to have AWD and aluminum body, apart from being a BEV. Still hoping for a quad motor Model S though.
Going a bit OT here, but what is the maximum battery capacity that we can expect on any Tesla model?
Once the typical driver can drive a whole day, then there is little point in paying for (and thus producing) a higher capacity battery. But here in Germany, one day of driving can mean 1000 km about half of which is without speed limit - which can really raise the needed capacity for a single day's driving...�
Apr 2, 2016
hcsharp Actually some of us predicted as good or better than him BEFORE we saw lines forming at the stores.
It depends on when you start counting the beginning of the first 24 hours. I was thinking it started when the stores opened on the East Coast of the US. I didn't think reservations would start down-under before then. 24 hrs starting at 10AM Eastern time US my prediction was more accurate than any I've seen in this thread. And that prediction was made several days ago. Just sayin'.
Another fairly close prediction if you use the 5% figure and assume 24hrs:
�
Apr 2, 2016
Magzzy Elon Musk on Twitter�
Apr 2, 2016
kirmac For those who don't want to click on the link.
253k reservations this morning. One reservation count update this night (3 days)
Last one on wednesday (1 week)�
Apr 2, 2016
Red Sage I believe that JB Straubel and Elon Musk would like to make sure that some day the typical entry-level electric vehicle would have 'enough' range. So the battery capacity would be sized so that they could build as many vehicles as possible that achieve that goal. Still, there may always be high end options for superior range at a Premium. Tesla Motors still has to combat those who look at the theoretical maximum range of a car like an AUDI A8L Diesel or Toyota Prius, for instance. Ultimately, for most people, when they are able to achieve a range of between 300 and 350 miles during any weather conditions without feathering the pedal while only using about 70% of the battery capacity, they will be happy.
I would like to see a situation where the priority becomes thoroughly embarrassing ICE vehicles though. Making it so that even the most efficient ICE would need a 50 gallon fuel tank to achieve even half the range of a typical BEV. I believe that may well happen within the next 20 years or so.�
Apr 2, 2016
ilovemycoffee My iPhone is made in China and the quality is excellent�
Apr 3, 2016
lklundin That is an excellent point.
Tesla Motors has stated that the Model 3 is there to outperform a car like the Audi A4, which in its TDI version has an excellent range (and reliability) - even for the pre-cheating versions.
As an experiment I once drove a 1.9l Audi A4 TDI the 1200 km from Munich to Copenhagen (via E-45/20) without stopping for fuel (or indeed without stopping at all). At a barely tolerable 115 km/h I spent about 64 liter diesel (5.3 l / 100 km), using lights, stereo and A/C.
Assuming 20kWh / 100 km for a Tesla, it would take a 240 kWh battery to cover the same distance on a single charge.
If the pace of advancements in battery technology can be kept at an annual 6%, a 240 kWh battery upgrade should be available for the Model S/X in 15 years (assuming the 100 kWh battery comes out this year).
In 20 years it would be 320 kWh.
I would totally pay for both. For the ICEs that remain in 20 years that scenario would indeed be thoroughly embarrassing.�
Apr 3, 2016
nativewolf Ok, so yesterday morning it passed the 250k mark. Elon will update again on Wed evening. Want to make a guess where things stand Wednesday by Elon's next update? Just for chuckles. I am guessing 309k�
Apr 3, 2016
Bimbels He was supposed to update us last night but he forgot. I guess he's busy.�
Apr 3, 2016
nativewolf Yep but at this point, I'm just curious to see what a week holds. 250k by 10am or so in the morning Saturday. CLprenz was amazingly correct and had a better guess of it than Elon and team.
Make a guess as to where it will be Wednesday, just for fun. I am guessing 309k.�
Apr 3, 2016
Breezy I think it will be less than 300k after the first week, say 298k. A bit higher than my original first week prediction of 50,000.�
Apr 3, 2016
nativewolf For folks curious about what this means for the world. The inflection point may be nigh. When electric cars reach comparable price points to ICEs. This analysis was very very good. Just looked at the big picture and says, well it looks like the 2020s will be the decade when electric cars take start having a huge impact on oil demand and use.
Here�s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis�
Apr 3, 2016
nativewolf You and Elon were thinking the same. And he'd have been happy.�
Apr 3, 2016
Clprenz Hahahaha... Just for fun:
500K by Wednesday Night (Probably more like 350-400)�
Apr 3, 2016
Bimbels So he got around to it.
�
Apr 3, 2016
nativewolf Ok, you are cheating like my kids when they were 6, getting in two guesses! But I guess you deserve two. If they go to 276 by Saturday evening then I'm probably going to be a bit low.�
Apr 3, 2016
nativewolf Yep, slowing down now. There just has to be a point where they'll flat line but it might be another few days. Still, that is 276k people writing checks that will likely take them off market for 18 months if nothing else. Cadillac, Lexus, BMW, Merc, Audi, Acura all have to be a bit unhappy with where things sit.�
Apr 3, 2016
Bimbels Yah - I'm thinking 300K by wednesday will be top out, basically.�
Apr 3, 2016
nativewolf in the small lux market there are about 420k car sales a year, half of that is bmw 3 and merc c series stuff. Much of that is leased. Another 8 models account for the rest of it, also much of it leased.
300k car sales unit loss would gut that segment. So, the question would be are the Tesla 3 buyers small lux buyers or Prius drivers looking to upgrade? Regardless, this is mostly going to hurt some snotty self righteous germans that make GM blush.�
Apr 3, 2016
Weezer Fan I think the reservations will level off. If you don't have one reserved by now, you certainly won't get the tax credit, and you won't see a car for at least 2 years. The Tesla fan boys and girls, (like me), have more than likely gotten their res in.
I believe it will pinch the other manufacturers, but it won't erase them.�
Apr 3, 2016
SOCALM3 The question is, how many of these are U.S. Sales compared to world wide sales.
Tesla isn't making a dent into any of the other manufacturers entry luxury car sales, not yet. Some of these people just got into a lease and will be out of it by the time the 3 hits the scene. Some will go into a lease waiting on the 3 and some will just drop the 3 once they find out it'll be 2025 by the time they have their 3.�
Apr 3, 2016
nativewolf Out of curiosity...what do you drive now? I'm a dad with a Honda Odyssey that will be about 200k when an 3 is available for me.�
Apr 3, 2016
nativewolf Well the S has hit the higher end car market, substantially, people tout the fact that it outsold all other high end models. Fact is that meant that people with 100k to drop on a car are not stepping into a Mercedes E or BMW 7 or Audi 8, or a Lexus LS. Leases are much lower than purchases. They took roughly 20% of the market segment and for a segment with year on year growth of almost 10% that's huge inroads and cuts deeply into profits. If they do the same in the SUV space with X... and do the same with low end lux then in the US they'll have gutted all the growth from the market. China being in a slump doesn't help of course. Neither does the decline in the mideast income base. All together it will be challenging times for Toyota, BMW, Merc and the liars.�
Apr 3, 2016
Weezer Fan I'm a mom with a 2005 Toyota Highlander. Plan on saving it for the daughter, who should get her driver's license next year (summer). Don't know what I will do between her getting her license and me getting my Tesla. We may have to share the car for a while.
As a note, I love the S and X, but they are too pricey for me. I have been considering a Volt, but, I think 2 drive trains sound complicated, and, there is no AWD option, which I need in Colorado.�
Apr 3, 2016
nativewolf Thank you so much, very curious. You know maybe we should conduct a poll and survey folks to find out what they're replacing. That's really key. So, one odyssey and one highlander- both a little below the M3 pricing depending on the options.�
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