Mar 21, 2016
Clprenz Hey everyone,
Based on a few factors (Owner and employee demand, along with Tesla fans), I am predicting that Model 3 demand will reach 100,000 orders within 24 hours of the portal being online.
I outlined my theory using early results from my survey. You can read more in my blog post.
Blog Post
Any thoughts? Too optimistic? Bets?�
Mar 21, 2016
Cattledog Agree. And think about that. It took Model X 3 years to hit 30,000!�
Mar 21, 2016
Big Dog setup a poll?
But no, I don't agree. I know of three current owners, and none of them will be putting down a deposit. Anecdotes, sure, but why would someone who can readily afford a $100k car be interested in a ride for $35k. I don't see it, unless they are buying presents for their grandkids.
�
Mar 21, 2016
ELRev I set one up in this forum. Got about 30-40 contributors. About half said yes, half said maybe depending on what the Model 3 offers, and like 3-4 said no.
I realized shortly after posting that a Model 3 sub-forum is probably the worst place to get an unbiased sense of which current Tesla owners will or won't order a Model 3. I'd be interested to see results from another sub-forum. Maybe I'll post one myself.
EDIT: Just posted a poll in the Model S sub-forum. Hopefully we get some good participation. I'll share results if/when they become worth sharing.�
Mar 21, 2016
Zaxxon I don't know about 24 hours, but it's clear to me that the total will far, far surpass that number. Take the X as a base: it took roughly 3 years to hit 30k reservations.
Using pseudo-math, that represents a 20x expected increase in M3 rate vs X rate (5*2*2). We have about 4/7 as long to accrue reservations (deliveries in about 2 years from first reservations vs 3.5 for the X). So again with pseudo-math:
- Reservations were 5x as expensive.
- They represented intent to buy a car that was going to cost in excess of $70k. (about 2x the Model 3)
- Tesla was less well-known for most of that period. (Say an average of 1/2 as well-known as a from-my-rear-end estimate)
30,000 * 20 * 4/7 = 342k+ expected reservations.
Who knows how accurate those guesstimates will prove to be, but my gut tells me they're conservative: the addressable market for vehicles doesn't increase linearly as price drops; the rate of increase is generally far in excess of linear.�
Mar 21, 2016
boiler81 I believe the M3 will be tremendously successful, and will be the "killer app" of cars. That being said, I believe relatively few really know about its reveal, and add that to the fact that its not advertised, and won't be available for 20+ months, I believe only the enthusiast will be putting their money down in the first 24 hours. I don't live under a rock, yet I don't know anyone personally know who knows of the reveal, let alone will be putting money down the first day. I predict first 24 hour orders at 50K-60K world wide.
P.S. I assume all have seen TMC's blog, describing M3 delivery order. If your not on the west coast, why worry about ordering day one?�
Mar 21, 2016
ELRev I don't know anyone I haven't told that knows about the Model 3 reveal either, let alone anyone who would consider putting $1000 down next Thursday. I don't own a Tesla, so this isn't a conversation I'd necessarily be likely to have, but I don't think there's enough buzz to garner 100,000 reservations in 24 hours. We have a very skewed perception in this forum.
As for why east coasters would order day 1, you're still jockeying for position among other prospective Model 3 owners on the east coast. If you don't order day one, you'll be behind not only everyone west of you but also everyone else on the east coast who does order day one. Could be thousands of people. Might push you several months further back. If you can afford the deposit, why not get it out of the way?�
Mar 21, 2016
butchmank9 After they see what the Model 3 looks like and what it can do I am sure they will all changed there minds.�
Mar 21, 2016
boiler81 Your only in the hunt, if you check enough option boxes, otherwise I doubt your day 1 deposit will count for much.�
Mar 21, 2016
ThortsMD I've had a sign on my office window for 6 weeks now to inquire if you have questions about the M3. My company's day shift is about 80. Including non-coworkers, I have 14 people interested and 3 who will be hitting the refresh button on their computers to get in the line early on 4/1.�
Mar 21, 2016
boiler81 Sounds like you have an office of informed folks. However better tell'em to get on-line 3/31 since per the TMC blog:
"The first, which will allow you to get a better spot in the queue, is to visit your local Tesla store when it opens on March 31st. Find your closest Tesla store here. The second is to make a reservation online at Tesla.com when the live unveil starts at 8:30pm PT."�
Mar 21, 2016
ucmndd I love the unbounded optimism and reality distortion of automotive forums. I truly do.�
Mar 21, 2016
Grendal Nice math. Another simple method that I realized is that in Tesla's history they always seem to be at one years worth of sales for the vehicle at the time the first production car is delivered to a customer.
So my WAG for day 1 is 50K+. Remember that Tesla Energy got 35K reservations in one night. No money down was needed there though.
There will be 100K+ reservations after the first month.
There will be 350K+ reservations by the end of the year.
I feel pretty confident in my personal WAG estimations.�
Mar 21, 2016
MikeC I think 100,000 worldwide in the first 24 hours is absolutely realistic.�
Mar 21, 2016
Tam I love the optimism but lots of people still want to kick the tires for themselves first before they would open up their wallets.�
Mar 21, 2016
Grendal You have to figure worldwide demand. There are just too many people that have already been waiting years for this car to show up. 50K is really not that many. That is why I had an initial rush that trickled off then slowly built over the year. I'm an optimistic person but I actually went for a lot lower numbers than my enthusiasm wanted them to be.
Of course, I could be completely wrong.�
Mar 21, 2016
ucmndd For comparison, BMW sold about 300k 3 series in Europe and the US in 2015 (evenly split at ~150k each). That was an entire year, with cars actually available and delivered - of the most popular premium/luxury sedan in the world.
I'm all for the Model 3 in every way. I hope Tesla kills it and they sell millions of them. There's undoubtedly pent up demand. But the idea of 100k reservations, at $1000 a pop, in 24 hours, for a car that won't be delivered for ~2 years, is the sort of absurdity that only seems realistic on car forums.�
Mar 21, 2016
wallet.dat If it's just 100K, I wouldn't worry about camping out the night before to beat the crowds.�
Mar 21, 2016
Yggdrasill I think 100k will be exceeded pretty quick. But whether it's 24 hours or 1 week is har to tell.�
Mar 22, 2016
WarpedOne In situations like this any parallels with other products are just false. There just aint any comparable product/situations out there. I for one am waiting for this car last 10 years. I didn't see it but what I did see and drove makse absolutely certan i will love m3.
100k on day one might end up being to low estimate. World is full of people whole loved roadster and could not afford it, and there are a few dozen times more people wanting S and could not afford it. Model 3 already has 10 years of advertising behind itself. If it didn't create 100k future customers it failed badly.
There is this rule of thumb that every 5k lower price, doubles the demand. From 70k down to 35k there is 7 souch doubling, those 30k X reservations in three years become 4M reservations. I cant force myself to believe this number at face value but it does set a bar what normal would look like.�
Mar 22, 2016
cwerdna Way too high within 24 hours. Since polls were mentioned, how about one at MNL like this?
Are you planning to reserve Tesla Model 3 ? - My Nissan Leaf Forum
My answer and explanation were at Are you planning to reserve Tesla Model 3 ? - My Nissan Leaf Forum
FWIW, I've been very busy at work but from talking to two people who seem like to talk about/bring up Tesla a lot, I'd asked them, if they're going to reserve one on March 31st. Both said no. Go figure. (They also don't drive EVs nor PHEVs nor even a non-plugin hybrid.)�
Mar 22, 2016
houdini There were lots of people with solar panels and no batteries though, so an existing system that could benefit, no money down etc. Car buyers will pretty much already have a car.
I reckon 50K by the end of the first week and will sit there for many months, maybe 18 months. As we have more visibility over production line progress, maybe a car launch event with test drives for reservation holders etc they numbers might spike up a bit but I think we're talking when the production vehicles start rolling off the line at the rate of 1000 a week then finally the 100K orders will come in.
The EV market is still a very small market worldwide.�
Mar 22, 2016
MikeC You can't compare demand for a car that has been widely available for many years with demand for reservations for a car that hasn't come out yet with insane pent-up demand as well as an expiring tax credit. $1000 a pop for a reservation - which could be worth $7500 in 2 years - is obviously more affordable than $35,000 for a car.
So not all resevations will convert to sales, but also don't forget what Model S did to the S-class and the others in its class.�
Mar 22, 2016
Yggdrasill There's no such thing as an "EV market". That is a fallacy put forward by the EV doubters. The Model S proved that if a car is compelling, it will sell, regardless of the driveline.
In all probability, the Model 3 will be compelling, and people will reserve it in huge numbers. I would expect 10k reservations in Norway alone, before production starts. Maybe even 20k.�
Mar 22, 2016
cwerdna Yeah, but what % of people who pay the $1K to reserve will end up opting for one of the less well-equipped units, which might mean the $7500 tax credit hits the phase out periods and thus be smaller or $0?
Tesla is not the only one who has plans to introduce relatively long range (e.g. 200+ miles) by the time the first Model 3's become available. Chevy claims their Bolt will be out by end of 2016. There is a next-gen Leaf coming sometime. I'm sure there are others.
Sure there is. It's huge in your country due to many reasons (benefits/incentives for EVs only, high gas prices, etc.)
In the US, it's pretty darn small. Per February 2016 Dashboard - HybridCars.com, battery electric take-rate was 0.33% in Feb 2016 or ~4,424 units out of 1.33 million autos sold that month. Look at the best selling EVs vs. February 2016 YTD U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 274 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR.
I was in Japan for vacation late last year. I saw virtually no EVs there, despite it being supposedly a strong EV market.
I posted this in another forum while there and after I returned:
"In my time here so far, I've only seen 2 Leafs. I did also see an electric kei van. It said Mitsubishi iMiev on the side + some other stuff. It was boxy and looked nothing like the clown car iMiev I'm familiar with.
I've seen no other EVs that I'm aware of. There are plenty of Gen 3 Prius and Prius c (Aqua here) and LOTS of kei cars (and kei vans and trucks), but virtually no EVs nor PHEVs that I know of.
Did see a huge sign on a parking garage stating there's EV quick charging there.
Oh... I guess there's an exception. In 2 hotels I've stayed at, on the building map of the rooms vs. elevator vs. fire escapes, they seem to use the abbreviation "EV" for elevator. That is technically correct, but not what I had in mind."
"While in Japan, parked on the street, I did see either a ICE Mitsubishi i (Mitsubishi i - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) or i-Miev. Not sure which it was. I looked around but didn't snap pictures, I don't think. (smacks head)
At Tokyo Motor Show, there seemed to be a lot more emphasis (as in displays/booths) on hydrogen FCEVs and their fueling infrastructure than anything EV/PHEV related. Honda had at least a 2nd booth showing their next gen Clarity FCX. At that booth and/or others, there was companies showing their hydrogen fueling stations."
I drive a pure BEV. It's been my daily driver since end of July 2013. Am I an EV doubter? Hmmmm.. not really. Enthusiast? Yes. Realist? Yes.�
Mar 22, 2016
Yggdrasill All the EV "competitors" kinda suck. They don't have supercharging, they don't go 0-60 in 3-4 seconds, they don't have a huge touchscreen and all sorts of connectivity, etc.
Look at this overview: #1 Large Luxury Car In US = Tesla Model S (2015 Sales Comparison)
It's not as if the Model S exists in it's own little bubble of the market. It is in the same market as all the competitors, and I'm talking about *ICE* competitors. People who are constantly announcing the next Tesla-killer are missing the point, whether they are talking about the i3, the Bolt, the Leaf, etc. The Model 3 competition is as the article says, BMW 3-series/5-series, Audi A3/A4/A6, Mercedes A-Class/B-Class/C-Class, etc. How many million cars per year are we talking about in this market segment, and why wouldn't Tesla take a nice slice of this market?�
Mar 22, 2016
Laserbrain This.
You heard it here first�
Mar 22, 2016
cwerdna Will the Model 3? The world's best selling EV is the Leaf. The EV w/the highest installed base in the US is the Leaf.
The Model S starting price is roughly double or more what most other BEVs cost. It kinda "helps" that Tesla bleeding $ all over the place, having lost over net $2 billion since it's been publicly reporting financials. As I've posted many time elsewhere before, as a Car and Driver column once stated, any car company can build a great car given a huge cost/budget, but when it has to be competitive and also be profitable, eventually, so there are compromises. (e.g. you can't sell a $100K Nissan Versa or a $10K Lamborghini). One has to wonder about the sustainability of what Tesla's doing. The prices they're charging are huge partly due to the big battery and performance, yet they've lost over $2 billion.
In the US, the Audis, Mercedes (we don't have the A-Class here and we only have the B-Class ED) and BMWs do not sell in very large numbers vs. the rest of the market.
For instance, what you point to had the Mercedes S-Class doing 25.2K units in the US in 2014 and 21.9K in 2015. That's small in the US scheme of things. See 2015 Year End U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 288 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR. The best selling vehicle in the US, the Ford F-Series truck did 780K units in 2015. The best selling car, the Camry did 429K units in 2015. In Dec 2015, Toyota sold ~70% more Camrys in that month than Mercedes did of S-Class for the whole year.
Look at 3-series and 4-series numbers there and compare to top sellers in that chart.
See USA Auto Sales Brand Rankings - 2015 Year End - GOOD CAR BAD CAR for brand sales.�
Mar 22, 2016
Breezy 50,000 in the first week, 60,000 in the first month, 70,000 in the first year (net of cancellations).
There's a natural limit to the number of reservations. As the number of reservations grows, the motivation to reserve lessens. There's no incentive to reserve if you're going to be #200,000 in line, especially when people can cut in front of you by ordering a highly-optioned car.�
Mar 22, 2016
Model 3 I mostly agree, but not completely. Yes, the EV's goes into the existing car markets, like "Premium sedan" or "subcompact hatchback" or "small SUV". But it is also a part of the marked that will not buy an EV no matter how compelling it is, and there is a part of the marked that will only consider an EV. I have my eyes on the Model 3, but I would not in any way consider ANY other "premium" (or "low end premium") car at all (I don't even like BMW/Audi
So I don't think it is so easy just to say there is - or is not - an "EV market". It is and is not�
Mar 22, 2016
Yggdrasill They haven't lost 2 billion, they've invested 2 billion. It takes time and money to scale up production to a sustainable level. You also need several vehicles to get a sufficent customer base, something that takes a lot of engineering and design resources.
I don't see the problem. Add up the following:
BMW 3-series: 94,000
BMW 4-series: 46,000
BMW 5-series: 44,000
Audi A3: 36,000
Audi A4: 31,000
Audi A5: 13,000
Audi A6: 23,000
Mercedes C-class: 86,000
Lexus IS: 47,000
Lexus ES: 65,000
Lexus GS: 23,000
These are some of the competitors, and it adds up to about 508,000 cars per year. Adding in some of the other competitors, you're probably looking at around 750,000 cars per year. In 2020, the number of Model 3 produced should be somewhere around 350,000 per year. (With 150,000 Model S/X.) A little over a third will probably need to be sold in the US, so maybe 125,000 cars per year. (With one third in Europe and one third in Asia.) That means that Tesla needs to steal around 15% of the sales from it's competitors. Is that unrealistic? I would say no, given Tesla's history of having done so with the Model S.�
Mar 22, 2016
McHoffa You're right, at least for me. If I could afford an S/X, I would have already one, and wouldn't be interested in the 3 unless I just felt the S was too big. Now If I were in the position of just barely affording the S and had a base model, I might be interested in upgrading to a fully loaded 3.�
Mar 22, 2016
cwerdna I posted at JB Straubel- Model 3 will be mostly NEW technology when they hit $1.8 billion in accumulated losses. There's no way you can characterize all of that loss as "investment". You can look at their their most recent SEC filings at Tesla Motors - Annual Report to get an idea where the money is going.�
Mar 22, 2016
LargeHamCollider Only 35% of people on a Nissan forum are in the "won't reserve" camp? That's a surprisingly low number. It will be very interesting to see what the actual number is, assuming it's announced.�
Mar 22, 2016
EinSV I do not think that poll says what you think it says.
As of the time of this posting 50% of the people taking the poll on the Nissan Leaf forum said they planned to reserve a Model 3 either immediately or later. Of those, a whopping 39% plan to reserve immediately, either at the store or online. Another 16% were "maybes" on the question of whether to reserve.
Only 34% said they did not plan to reserve. Presumably they will just wait until the Model 3 is introduced before buying it : )
Not a very scientific poll, granted. But it looks pretty darn good for off-the-hook Model 3 reservations.
Edit: LargeHamCollider -- just saw your post but obviously I agree!�
Mar 22, 2016
eye.surgeon My guess is maybe 20,000 reservations in the first week.�
Mar 22, 2016
hcsharp You all are way underestimating. It will be well over 100k in 24 hrs. In the other thread on this subject I guessed about 300k.�
Mar 22, 2016
ItsNotAboutTheMoney I don't think so. I'm sure there's a lot of people interested, but putting down $1k is going to be a big deal for people at that end of the market. I suspect either damp squib or steady growth.
I'm reserving, but I'm pretty motivated about it, and I think people will take a more wait-and-see attitude.�
Mar 22, 2016
ucmndd I think the main piece of contention here is the enthusiast-fueled speculation as to the degree of "insane pent-up demand". I simply see no evidence to suggest that there are 100k people out there at this moment with the means and motivation to give Tesla $1,000 each in the span of 24 hours, for the chance to buy a car in two years' time.
Whatever the number is, I'll be one of them - but I'll eat my foot if I'm keeping company with 100,000 of my closest friends in the first 24 hours.�
Mar 22, 2016
MikeC And I'll be two of them. The bigger question to me is will they actually release the exact numbers for that time frame. We'll see next week!�
Mar 22, 2016
HankLloydRight That's about what I'd predict, maybe even a little less. These predictions of 100k cars in hours are nutz.�
Mar 22, 2016
gregincal Whereas I'm guessing 10-25K.�
Mar 22, 2016
ELRev I started in the "100k in 24 hours is crazy" camp, but the more I think about it, the more I realize maybe it isn't. You have to figure that a significant percentage of current Tesla owners will put their money down right away, because why not. We've already heard that a number of employees have reserved theirs. There's also at least a few hundred, if not a few thousand, of us on this forum who plan to reserve one right away. Then there's the other 7 billion people on this planet who might see a CNN or Mashable article on Twitter or Facebook on the days leading up to the event, the day of, or even the morning of April 1 and think "Why not?" That number could climb really quickly, especially once people know it's fully refundable.
Only time will tell, but it's certainly possible...�
Mar 22, 2016
UKayla The other day, I would have thought the numbers would be staggering. Had a conversation that made me much less sure.
I am SUPER excited about the Model 3. When the news first came out about the reservation I idly thought "oh that would be amazing to get" and then over the next few days realized there was no reason I couldn't plan things out and be ready to get it in two years (or more). Yes the waiting sucks but it gives me time to prepare financially. I wanted a vehicle at the end of this year, but I can make do and waiting will put me in a much better position - and what's worth waiting for more than a Tesla? Once I realized that I was all in and now I'm obsessive.
Contrast that with my friend. When I tweeted about reserving my Tesla she got really excited and said oh I want the cheaper one. Then she said "I don't know what it's called or if they've released it yet." Now, she's a super intelligent person, so that just shows me she hasn't looked into the process at all and has no idea how long it will actually take to get the car. If she did I think she would be in line right behind me next week.
it's easy to think that everyone must be chomping at the bit like we are. But there are a lot of people out there who are potentially interested and haven't taken the time to educate themselves yet and therefore won't be reserving next week. I wouldn't be surprised if many of those potential customers would look at the projected timeline and go elsewhere because they needed or wanted something sooner. So I agree with the idea that the overall number of reservations will remain pretty level after the initial rush.�
Mar 22, 2016
gregincal It may be refundable, but it's still $1000. Most people don't have that sitting around wondering what they're going to do with it. And not using up that $1000 means that they will just need to wait a little longer (especially outside the US, where you don't even have the government rebate speculation).�
Mar 22, 2016
cwerdna Actually, the response rate to the poll was VERY low. There were only 73 responses.
MNL has over 16K users. Yeah yeah, most of them are likely inactive. Unfortunately, I don't have any stats as to the # of active unique users each week or month, but I suspect it's much more than 73.�
Mar 22, 2016
eye.surgeon It will be interesting to revisit this thread in 2 weeks. People are overlooking some realities here--
1. American mainstream car shoppers are used to buying off the lot. The idea of waiting 18 months will immediately eliminate most buyers. Until Tesla has inventory on a lot for same-day sale, they will never sell accord or camry numbers.
2. The service center build-out is woefully inadequate for a mainstream car. Average buyers do not buy cars without a local dealer/service department. By the time the M3 hits the bamboo floor Tesla will have moved to a traditional dealership model. There's simply no way around it for high volume sales to average buyers.
3. A $35k M3 will be about as common as a $70k MS. Which is to say, non-existent.
There will be a lot of early adapters and switchers from Prius/Leaf/Volt and a few sales cannibalized from the Model S. Joe Mainstream will not be ordering this month. 100,000 in the first week? LOL. No way.�
Mar 22, 2016
cwerdna Perhaps it was bad placement of sentences. My opinion of 100K "orders"/$1K reservations or whatever within 24 hours being too high is unrelated to the poll on MNL.
The poll on MNL was just more an of FYI.�
Mar 22, 2016
calisnow I dunno man. I would've agreed with you but I now have four non-early adopter, non-Tesla owning friends putting down deposits on day one:
1 - 48 y/o philosophy professor who drives an old Accord and who has never, as long as I've known him, bought anything flashy, high tech or showy.
2 - 39 y/o Prius driving iT consultant who has also never bought any car remotely sporty.
3 - 38 y/o endocrinologist who is still driving the Honda Civic he bought in undergrad 17 years ago.
4 - 38 y/o psychiatrist who is driving the Infiniti G35 he purchased 12 years ago.
I am pretty surprised.
Oh, and there's myself - I already purchased a 2016 70D, have another Model S on order (may switch it to the X) - and am putting in a deposit the morning of the 31st. I don't even know why I'm doing it! I never do pre-orders for anything. I don't need a Model 3. But there's just this sense that this is some kind of historic moment. I think people are getting caught up in it and the wave could be bigger than we expect.�
Mar 22, 2016
ELRev A new iPhone costs about that much these days. Apple sells millions of those in a day. I know those people actually have something to take home with them and use on the spot, but you could consider your RN as your take-home. Obviously Tesla won't take in millions of reservations, but some small percentage of such a number isn't out of the question.
I had a conversation with a friend today that likened the core demographic for Teslas to that of iPhone. Typical "car guys/gals" aren't going to line up next week to put a deposit down. My non-car guy friend joked that they're more concerned with "engine size and motor oil." I know a lot more people in my life who keep track of new iPhone releases rather than new releases from top ICE car manufacturers. That's not to say Tesla has nearly the following that Apple does, but it's not crazy to think people would be willing to put $1000 aside for a chance to be part of the wave of the future. 100,000 isn't THAT much.�
Mar 22, 2016
McHoffa I just don't think that many people have $1000 to put down on a car they won't be able to drive for nearly two years (or longer for base model). Not only that, but unless you're one of us on this forum (or other Tesla enthusiasts), you probably don't even know about the reservation process. It's when they're on the streets and people find out they can afford one that sales will skyrocket.�
Mar 22, 2016
Yuri_G We still have a little over a week and the hype is getting a little crazy here. I'm guessing mainstream media will pick up the story heading into the 31st and then during/after the reveal the the photos of lines at stores will be posted all over the internet. 10k in store reservations should be possible. 100k online reservations sounds like a lot, but good word of mouth over the web could push it over that, easily. A good analogy to the 3 reveal/reservation day is a video game console launch. People like to be on the bleeding edge and will stand in line for new tech.�
Mar 22, 2016
calisnow Also if Elon makes some wild promises at the evening reveal - such as Autopilot 2.0 included at no extra charge in the base $35K Model 3 - that could drive online reservations through the roof.
If you think about it - he could do it. The sensors are cheap. The software development has been done already. The high precision maps will have been built out by the S's and X's on the road.
The marginal cost to put in autopilot in the 3 is very little at this point. So maybe it will be an option but a cheap one - $500 or $1,000 instead of $2,500 on the S.
Nobody else in the industry will be able to touch this level of autopilot quality in 2017 except maybe Mercedes.�
Mar 22, 2016
Kenypowa That is actually plausible. The latest rumour is that Model S and X price is going up after the Model 3 unveil.
In the past, Tesla increased the prices by having a bigger battery pack, adding dual motor, and ability to supercharge.
So this case, maybe a $5K price bump on the Model S and Model X with 100 kW battery pack and Autopilot 2 included.�
Mar 22, 2016
Bimbels There are a LOT of MS/X owners ready to reserve 2-4 cars on the 31st. Many are ordering 1 (like me, since we want a second tesla but don't want 2 huge cars and don't want 2 $75k+ cars.) They've said it in threads on the Tesla forum, anyway. I am guessing just with the employees and the current owners it will be 60k minimum - and I wouldn't be surprised if it were actually higher. Then figure in those who have been waiting for years, like many on this forum - or those who maybe haven't been waiting for years but who have been wanting to make the leap to electric with real range and a price they can afford...I do think total numbers could approach 100k at least in the first week.
I also do think there are a lot more people than some here think who indeed have $1k to throw around just to get in what will be a very long line - and longer if they don't.
What the actual conversion is however is another story.�
Mar 22, 2016
Skotty News maybe a week after the reveal -- headlines read "Telsa Model 3 a failure -- only 893,000 reservations, well short of the expected 2.5 million. Can Tesla remain in business thanks to loopholes in Obamacare?"
I generally agree with those that say the Model 3 will be successful, but demand and reservations will grow gradually.�
Mar 22, 2016
pekap While I think it's unlikely, it would be interesting to throw extra incentive in at the unveiling, such as free AP and Supercharger access for first 100k reservations. Would create a huge buzz for fairly low-cost add-ons. This would effectively make your early reservation "free" or better even when considering lost investment income from reserving with $1,000 cash outlay.�
Mar 22, 2016
Yggdrasill Any new business will run at a loss for the first few years. It's just the way things work.
But you have to look beyond the current losses and see the future profits. And to get from here to there you need to be willing to lose some money.�
Mar 22, 2016
Yggdrasill Tesla isn't planning on selling Accord or Camry numbers. We're talking about BMW 3-series numbers. Maybe we'll see Tesla add some inventory at strategic locations.
Dealerships don't help. You still need to set up service centers, train staff, etc, and the dealership model doesn't help in that regard. Tesla clearly needs to increase the number of service centers, though.
Agree. The 35k USD Model 3 will be about as common as a 33k USD BMW 3-series.
Tesla has a lot of fans who can't comfortably afford the Model S or X. Myself included. These fans will be lining up at the stores, and watching the unveiling online. If we assume there are five Model 3-buying fans for every Model S sold, that's about half a million people who are ready to get the Model 3.
You sound pretty unconvinced, but like you say, we'll know in a couple of weeks.�
Mar 22, 2016
cwerdna Sure, your first statement is true of most businesses, but per About Tesla | Tesla Motors, Tesla was founded in 2003. I'd call it well beyond "first few years" now.�
Mar 22, 2016
Yggdrasill I disagree. What should be defined as the first few years is relative to the market you are trying to take on. And the automotive market is not easy to take on, it requires time and money.�
Mar 22, 2016
Tedkidd My wag...
5,000 sight unseen reservations.
2,000 employee reservations.
20,000 first 48 hours
30,000 first week
100,000 December 2017
I have trouble envisioning there being more reservations than the first year's production.�
Mar 23, 2016
Yggdrasill I think I would say:
20,000 sight unseen reservations (95 per store)
5,000 employee reservations (~33%)
80,000 first 48 hours
150,000 first week
300,000 December 2017�
Mar 23, 2016
ankitmishra Tesla can't be compared to any other business. It's business was an uphill battle against big corporations, oil lobby, politicians, media etc. No other business had to face those odds. It had to create it's technology from ground up. No one did what they did before them. There wasn't anything to built upon. They only produced their 1st car in 2008 and that too on a different company platform. There is a reason there are no new start ups in car industry, and the reason is its extremely hard to survive here.�
Mar 23, 2016
ankitmishra My guess is 100000 in 48 hours.�
Mar 23, 2016
mkjayakumar My guess is 6428963097 in first 24 hours.�
Mar 23, 2016
Skotty As soon as Tesla decides to stop growing for awhile, we will very quickly start seeing profits for Tesla, and everyone will be confused. There will be investigations and congressional hearings to figure out how Tesla suddenly became profitable.
I would guess maybe 25,000 reservations in the first couple of days, but I would also guess Tesla won't disclose the numbers and we will never really know.�
Mar 23, 2016
jbcarioca I really? I think you're in error and have done extensive calculations to prove it. Globally Tesla currently has something in the order of 4000 people who could process payments in stores, plus their website, which can handle only ~30000 transactions per minute. The 4000 people will work Tesla hours (i.e. 24 hours without any break or slowing of pace, because everyone in the queue at closing time will be served), and will each process one order per minute. So, the 24 hour capacity for order will be as follows:
4000x1440= 5,760,000 reservations in stores
30,000x1440= 43,200,000 online reservations
Total 48,960,000
Thus you have overestimated the actual expected reservations by 6,380,003,097. I think I have spotted your error, in that you have overstated the website capacity. Thus your number is probably accurate for the first months reservations rather than the first 24 hours.
As an aside there are roughly 1.5 billion motor vehicles operating in the world today. The model 3 alone is set to decimate the global market while ending out with about a 97% global market share once Tesla completes the takeover of all productive worldwide industrial capacity and releases the already perfected, but not disclosed, propulsion system that uses NO2, O3, and CO as the active sources of power, while emitting pure water as an output. Thus Tesla will purify the planet earth too.
All this is happening because Elon now realizes that colonizing Mars is not practical in the short term so revitalizing the planet Earth is simply easier to do in the ten year horizon he has set.
Had you not made this miscalculation I would not have revealed this plan. The broad outline may be revealed in the Model 3 reveal, but I doubt he'll tell the whole story there for fear of almost instantly causing the Tesla stock price to rapidly rise to cause tesla to exceed Apple's market capitalization within a single month.�
Mar 23, 2016
hoang51 Tesla would release favorable Model 3 reservation statistics if the statistics are better than Model S and/or Model X in comparable terms of timing. Receiving 100,000 reservations within 24 hours would be a great feat, but I express disagreement with the prediction. I would think 15,000-20,000 reservations within 24 hours is a realistic possibility for those who are willing to vote with money on a product that hasn't materialized yet. It'll take time for the news and information (the reveal on March 31st) of the Model 3 to be dispersed and let people make a financial decision. For an example, convincing a significant other doesn't always happen in 24 hours...�
Mar 23, 2016
mark Doesn't every model S owner know 10-20 folks that drool over their car but can't afford it and are dying for one in their price range?
At least 5 in my drool circle are planning to reserve ASAP.
5x100k Model S...Once the press gets a hold and the specs are known that will grow. 1 million by first delivery date is quite possible.
100k in 24hours is not a stretch.�
Mar 23, 2016
Big-T This is a VERY good point. No one I've talked to knew about the model 3 reservations before I told them - and they certainly didn't magically offer to pony up 1k deposit to come with me to the Tesla store on the 31st. At best I got a wary "oh, well that's interesting - not sure if I could give up a gas car"�
Mar 23, 2016
ModelNforNerd I'd say more realistically, give it a month.
And I hope Tesla has a ton of "educational" information to go onto the website.
For many people, the 6 O' Clock news on March 31st will be their first exposure to the "affordable Tesla", when the cameras are out talking to people waiting in line (those of us here on the forums).
It will pique curiosity
I actually think someone is going to hand Elon the global day 1 numbers, and if they're good, you'll hear them at the event on the evening of the 31st.
I mean, he's already going to have the world's attention, pretty sure he'd share good news if he had it.�
Mar 23, 2016
ModelNforNerd
the good thing about the gap between debut and delivery is that it will give them a chance to scramble and start adding stalls to existing SC sites, as well as spinning up new ones, based on the amount of reservations they take in.�
Mar 23, 2016
pmich80 I like your predictions but i'll offer a few changes..
7,000 sight unseen reservations.
6,000 employee reservations.
17,000 first 48 hours
20,000 first week
70,000 December 2017
I think about half of the employees will reserve their car. One poster mentioned that he worked there and that everyone he knew was buying one so I think 50% is a good figure.
I'm a bit more conservative in my numbers.�
Mar 23, 2016
Big-T I think if it's a large number Tesla certainly WILL disclose the numbers. The role of any CEO is to maximize shareholder value and a large amount of deposits for the model 3 will help achieve that, not only by helping the stock price directly but by helping pad their cash. If orders realy did hit 100,000 in 48 hours that would be $100 million in the bank for Tesla, nothing to sneeze at for 2 days of work. Of course if the reservations aren't great, they may not disclose the number and try to bury the info as much as possible.
Apple did the same thing by not disclosing the number of iWatches sold and just coming out iwth generic "we're thrilled at the demand" statements even though they had been disclosing/bragging about sales numbers of iPads and iPhones for years.
So yes, they'll yell it over the mountain tops if reservations are great, they won't if they're not.�
Mar 23, 2016
Big Dog "ou have to figure that a significant percentage of current Tesla owners will put their money down right away, because why not."
Why not? Because if you can afford an S-Class, you don't buy the C-class.�
Mar 23, 2016
ModelNforNerd
Yep. If the next announcement coming from Musk is a price hike/refresh of the Model S, you'd have to think that many will be waiting for those details to emerge (P100D? AP 2.0? etc) before they decide which Tesla they want next.
Ultimately, the Model S refresh announcement could finally see some P85D/P90D with Autopilot start trickling in as CPOs.�
Mar 23, 2016
AnOutsider I agree, and think that would actually be an undesireable scenario.�
Mar 23, 2016
tga Some people buy the C-class because they don't want to flaunt their wealth. Not every wealthy person is an egomaniacal show-off (Warren Buffet comes to mind).�
Mar 23, 2016
ELRev I think you're misunderstanding the culture and priorities Tesla is breeding in their customer base. I described this sentiment in another post somewhere. People who buy Teslas are more akin to iPhone maniacs than ICE-heads. Tesla has made their cars a hot commodity, not just a method of transportation. Many Tesla owners have already owned more than one Tesla. And to your point that they can afford it, if the Model 3 is revealed to have enticing features or a new suite of sensors or anything substantially different technologically, I think current Tesla owners (i.e. members of the FAN base) will strongly consider plunking down $1000 for the option to buy early later. After all, like you said, they can afford it.
Even if it doesn't end up being for them, they'll make the reservation and buy it for a spouse or family member. Or they'll cancel and get a new S/X. We don't have news of S/X upgrades yet. Rumors, sure, but next week, there will be a tangible method of reserving Tesla's "new best thing," - maybe not overall, as it's no P100D, but it will have improvements over the current S models, and at a more attractive price point - and if $1000 is all that separates current drinkers of the Tesla kool-aid from a chance at being an early adopter of that technology as well (not just a car, technology - the future), then I ask again - why not?
Mercedes, to use your example, doesn't have "fans". Mercedes is an established car brand that introduces marginally better products year-over-year in various sizes. Tesla is still in its infancy and has used S/X owners as proof of concept. Tech changes in their cars will likely continue to be drastic over the next several years, and considering their current customer base is made up of wealthier individuals who can afford to own more than one car in general, it's reasonable to expect, after receiving an email telling them all they'd get priority in reserving one, that they'd plunk down a relatively small $1000 to defer that decision to 18+ months from now when the cash (which they likely already have) is due. Why not?�
Mar 23, 2016
trinites1a Sorry to say I don't think it will be 100k in a couple days even month. I also don't think there will be any real lines for reservations. People would probably do the most reservations online. There will be a good amount of reservations just not 100k (Well I'm thinking US wise). 100k around the world then probably possible but still doubtful.�
Mar 23, 2016
Big Dog "Some people buy the C-class because they don't want to flaunt their wealth. Not every wealthy person is an egomaniacal show-off (Warren Buffet comes to mind)."
I don't disagree, but I think you are missing the point of the question, which was, 'how many current owners of a Tesla, (i.e., those that already have a S-Class will now want to add a C-Class to their garage), will want to purchase a 3? And, as I stated upthread, my guess is that it won;t be that many, unless they are reserving for grandkids.
"Mercedes, to use your example, doesn't have "fans"."
Change 'Mercedes' to BMW, and the 700 series owners buying a 300 series?
"Tesla has made their cars a hot commodity, not just a method of transportation."
I get that, and I'll be in line next Thursday.
"People who buy Teslas are more akin to iPhone maniacs..."
Not sure its a proper example. One costs a few hundred bucks and has ~zero implementation costs; the other, thousands, and generally requires a home garage. (Which excludes all the wealthy millenials who live in upscale apartments; of course, they Uber anyway.)
IMO, the question for current owners is not, "Why not?", but Why?
But I guess we'll see next week. As a (small) stockholder, I'd love to be proved wrong!�
Mar 23, 2016
Yggdrasill Many Model S/X owners will buy it because they need two or more cars in their household. A cheap Model 3 would be perfect for commuting and getting around town. That way they can also keep the mileage low on their Model S/X, without having to resort to some boring ICE, Leaf or whatever.�
Mar 23, 2016
ELRev Re: the first example, I don't see the difference. Most car manufacturers today are just that: car manufacturers. People buy their cars for lots of reasons, most of which boil down to some variation of "personal preference." Tesla products have an element of technology that makes them attractive to certain people for reasons a typical car is not.
As for the iPhone example, it's not a perfect comparison, but it works in the sense that we're dealing with a small sect of that fan base - one that has shown the capacity to afford a $70,000+ car - i.e. current Tesla owners. They deal in currency that the typical iPhone user does not. They also probably buy a new iPhone for themselves or their family members without much consideration, as the relative price, as you suggested, is quite small. That being said, the relative cost of a Model 3 reservation as compared to an iPhone purchase is about equal. It's something I expect a lot of currently Tesla owners will consider simply to give themselves the option later of affording something cheaper in the Model 3 than something they've already shown an interest in paying for, as an early adopter to boot.�
Mar 23, 2016
jbcarioca This may be partly true but a large proportion of Top-of-the-line C-class could easily afford larger ones, but want a smaller size. Another large proportion already own MB's and are adding to the fleet. Cars are not one size fits all, which is why a given model price range is from x to 2x or even more. Check any brand and you'll find that.
Current Tesla owners reserving 3's will be just like all the others, some will have bought used S's and want a new car, others additional ones, others want smaller, and others will have other motivations.�
Mar 23, 2016
Adm A leasing company called Mister Green from the Netherlands has started a campagne to collect 1000 Model 3 orders before March 31st. They had 21 orders within 30 minutes, but their counter hasn't updated since. There are some issues here. I would doubt they can order 1000 cars in one batch if demand is strong in Europe and second, the counter could be a bit optimistic to get people to sign up quickly.
MisterGreen Electric Lease�
Mar 23, 2016
ELRev Also, let's be fair and accept that some measurable number of current Tesla owners will reserve one as a friend or family member's request just to try gaming the system to get it early. They were made acutely aware of their advantage via email. And they can obviously afford the Model 3 at any price point. A lot of them will probably successfully game the system too. In that case, the sooner the reservation is placed - even if that just means online - the better.�
Mar 23, 2016
jbcarioca For sure one of the Model 3 reserving segments is those people who are Tesla fans and can afford it, so they'll do it. There is a decent segment of current Tesla owners who have had or now have lots of other high end cars. They aren't necessarily Jay Leno, Steven Colbert etc, but they are people most of us know and some of us are ready to buy the 3 because we think it'll be fun to do it.
There is a big difference though. No matter how consequential economically a car purchase might be vs an iPhone, nearly all people will think more about a car purchase than they will about a phone. Despite that pretty extensive research (I'll provide references if you want them) suggests that more than 70% of all US car purchases are impulse buys. Tesla does not really help make impulse buys because they are built to order. Only CPO and Inventory cars, all 'used', can be bought off the lot. That moves Tesla to a less impulsive buy than are others and forces a greater involvement in selection because configuration is done by the end user. That increased buyer involvement does act to reinforce positive expectations.
I'll argue that the Tesla owners share some characteristics with Apple fans. Buying into the ecosystem is a major part of that, as is the seamless customer experience compared with any other car manufacturer.
This stuff, early adopter and influencer types of things, are precisely what has driven Tesla psychology since the beginning. I am comfortable with explaining much of it this way, and I admit to being infected with both Apple and Tesla mystique.�
Mar 23, 2016
trinites1a Sorry this statement I simply don't agree with. .......I don't know if i would treat a Model 3 any different than a Model S. They both require basically the same amount of care. Being cheaper doesn't make it a "beater" Any Model S/X owners I see buying this car would be buying it for a significant other or even kids that don't need the size of a Model S. I've seen owners comment that they would downgrade..I don't see this being the "commuter" over the Model S. The truth is the only good EV on the Market was Model S. So some basically only had 1 choice.. now that the 3 is here.. i won't say it will cannibalize Model S but there will be a few owners who generally dont want the size of Model S and finally have a alternative option in the 3. No one is gonna send almost 100k on a far then decide to commute in the 35k version.. The only people who probably keep an ICE is because the need a second car, were not ready to fully commit to EV or were waiting on something better than the alternative EV.... Who here owns a Model S and commutes in a ICE? I would think slim to none and if they did im sure its not because of keeping miles low on their MS.�
Mar 23, 2016
brianman Wonder who has that number in Galveston.�
Mar 23, 2016
hcsharp What???�
Mar 23, 2016
gregincal I think he means that nobody will buy the base version with no options.�
Mar 23, 2016
graphix25 The big three in Germany (BMW,Mercedes and Audi) must be shaking in their boots heading into the 31st. If there are 100k+ pre-orders in the first couple days that would be devastating to their bread and butter market segment. I bet all the executives at those companies will be watching the live event on the 31st. If Tesla comes in at 100, 200 or 300k pre-orders it will be full on war heading into 2020 in the luxury sedan and SUV market. We are going to see more innovation in the next 4 or 5 years then we have seen in the last 20. As a energy independence supporter, car enthusiast and technology connoisseur, aka geek, I can't wait. We are in for a treat in the next decade. Can you imagine what the 2026 Tesla Model S, 3, X, Y, R, and Z will bring to the marketplace. It's going to be nuts!!�
Mar 23, 2016
DougH 100k orders in the first days, come on..�
Mar 23, 2016
Red Sage Yeah. And one of those harsh realities will be the overwhelming amount of support that exists for Tesla Motors.
The Accord and Camry are the perennial leaders of the midsize new car sales charts in the US. They are each built by companies that have an overall capacity of millions of units worldwide. In particular, Toyota is among a very few manufacturers that approach or surpass 10,000,000 units worldwide, every year. It will be a very long time before Tesla Motors is able to compete directly, head-to-head with the Camry or Accord. So, they chose the next best target.
The BMW 3-Series is the perennial leader of the compact entry level luxury car sales charts in the US. Before the company decided to separate 3-Series sales from 4-Series sales totals in the middle of 2015, its sales exceeded even the Toyota Prius in the US. Even so, in 2015 the 3-Series outsold the first five years of Chevrolet VOLT totals combined -- in 2015 alone. Among passenger cars, the 3-Series is the single best selling premium brand vehicle in the US -- and the WORLD.
Elon Musk and Tesla Motors have been consistent in stating their intent to target the BMW 3-Series with their Generation III vehicles since at least 2012. So, expecting them to instead go after the Accord or Camry is completely inaccurate. Almost as if you expect the Model ? to be manufactured in Fremont for Sale in the US alone.
Perhaps you have not noticed that multiple States have been actively blocking or outright banning Tesla Motors' preferred means of doing business? Some have even tried to prevent the installation of Superchargers. Service Centers remain banned in States like Michigan. While other States only grudgingly allow a Tesla Gallery, instead of a Tesla Store... And at least one demands that the entire Service Manual be made publicly available to every 'independent shop' in the entire State -- even if they have no interest in servicing them. So, please... Don't act as if any apparent 'inadequacy' is due to Tesla Motors themselves. They are fighting a long, up hill battle against established players who are working hard to prevent their progression.
There is absolutely NO reason for Tesla Motors to move to today's version of 'independent franchised dealerships'. There is no advantage for them whatsoever to do so. The bulk of Tesla Customers aren't likely to be 'average' buyers for another decade. The very nature of the electric car is that it requires study and forethought to make an informed purchasing decision. Walk-ins, and impulse buyers will NOT be their primary Customers for years.
NADA is perfectly aware that the Tesla Motors direct sales model will work just fine. That is why they are working so hard to prevent it becoming the success it is destined to be. They have changed the law in some States, like New Jersey and Michigan, then claimed that Tesla Motors should just 'play by the rules' like 'everyone else'. They never admit that 'the rules' had previously been specific to those who already had franchise agreements, and did NOT mandate that using franchises was the sole means of selling new cars. And, in the midst of solidifying a state of monopoly for themselves for new car sales, by 'clarifying the law', the 'independent franchised dealerships' simultaneously accuse Tesla Motors of having a 'monopoly' on sales!
There are only two ways that Tesla Motors will submit to the 'independent franchised dealership' system:
1) States relent, and allow for new car franchises to be governed the same way as franchises from other businesses, such as restaurant chains. Elon has already stated that if he had the level of control that McDonald's can exercise over its franchises, he'd be happy to craft something to his liking. Unfortunately, most States specifically separate franchise laws for other companies from those that sell cars -- on purpose -- so that such an arrangement would be patently illegal.
2) Tesla Motors loses a suit at the Federal level that yields a court order that they absolutely cannot sell direct to anyone, anywhere in the US because they are a manufacturer of automobiles.?
You also overlook that Tesla Motors has chosen not to use their Service Centers as a profit center. Meanwhile, a large percentage of profit at an 'independent franchised dealership' comes from their Service Department. The way current franchise law works, if Tesla Motors were to ask that their franchises NOT make a profit from Service it would be considered 'unusual' and on those grounds alone the request could be denied, or flat out ignored.
Sure. Unless you drive a taxi, or municipal law enforcement vehicle, or rental car. Because the Model ? will definitely be plentiful in those fleets. The substantial reduction in operational costs will make the car very popular for such applications. Move over Prius! There's a new Green Car in town...
Yours seems to be a point of view that is seriously skewed toward US Customers. I do expect that perhaps 60% to 80% of initial Model ? Reservations may be to people in the US, during the first 24-48 hours. And I expect over the course of a week to a month that will change to be only about 40% of total Reservations.
If the base version of the Model ? has a 100 kWh battery pack capacity, General Motors will accuse them of 'technology dumping'.
There is probably some minimum number, maybe 50,000 or so, whereby Elon would decide to make an announcement. I would guess it would be done in a manner that paraphrases Sally Field... "Wow. You like us! You really, really like us!" Then give the number.
Exactly.�
Mar 23, 2016
Big-T Check out this article talking about how EV's and Hybrids are going mainstream. That's not the interesting part, the interesting part is that "Last year, automakers had 16 hybrid and electric models on sale, but sales sank to just over 274,000."
Automakers say electrics, hybrids no longer just fuel savers
So folks are saying Tesla will have over 1/3 of last years total EV AND Hybrid sales reserved within 48 hours. I'm all for Tesla and will reserving my model3 on the 31st but I'm starting to think we may be a little to skewed to Tesla World Domination here.�
Mar 23, 2016
mkjayakumar You know, just like how they peddle magic kitchen knives and wonder toasters in Shopping channels, Tesla should have someone peddling Model 3 on TV, with
".. and thats not all, we will throw in another cup holder too, but only if you call in the next 10 minutes.."
and having running counter on how many orders they received. That will send a message to those slouchy BMW executives�
Mar 23, 2016
EinSV A while ago I thought it would take a month to get 50,000 reservations on the books, but with the developments of the past couple weeks 100,000 within the first 24/48 hours seems like a reasonable guesstimate. Could get 30,000+ from employees and Model S/X owners, and the rest at the stores and online. I would guess 200,000-300,000 by the end of 2016, but that could turn out to be too conservative.�
Mar 23, 2016
Atlantis I have not seen the date for the next shareholder letter (1st 2016 quarter Tesla results), but it should take place some time in the first two weeks of April. So I really think that if the first days reservations numbers are significant, Elon Musk could retain them and then, reveal these numbers at the end of the shareholder event like a some sort of "Well, for all the Tesla stocks short sellers I have a some news... more than 100000 reservations have been made until now. More clearly speaking: "you are screwed!". I would love so much something like this to happen.�
Mar 23, 2016
Yuri_G This is a quote from the from a TMC member going to the Montreal Tesla store to reserve. "Camping out two nights now as big crowds expected here"
Look here for more: Model3-CampOut-LineUp-OnLine�
Mar 23, 2016
TaoJones I made a similar prediction recently at the TM site - 100K reservations by close of business 4/1.
Note the number of Tesla showrooms presently open for business. Whatever volume of reservations they manage to accomplish by eod 4/1 will be dwarfed by the online reservations which, presuming server and payment processing capacity is robust enough to handle the load, (and that's a big presumption as it involves those darned things known as details) could easily exceed 100,000 globally in the timeframe specified. Across 38 hours (1000 3/31 - 2359 4/1), that's less than 3,000 reservations/hour worldwide. Not hard to do. At all.
You could see 50,000 reservations from California alone, folks.
The limiting factors here for the first day or so could well be gateway and payment processing capacity.
So now let's view things from the other side:
Playing devil's advocate for the contrarian camp that doesn't think there will be 100,000 signups the first day or so, I just took a mini-road trip (~1100 miles) this past Friday/Saturday from LA County to Ventura, California to north of Kingman, Arizona, and back to LA County. Inclusive, the following superchargers were visited:
Oxnads x1
Barstow x2
Needles x2
Kingman x2
Redondo Beach x1
Conversations were held at or near almost every stop. OTR truckers came up to me 2-3 times, as did a few other people who stopped dead in various parking lots to walk over, and then there was the usual contingent of Tesla owners one might expect at SCs on a Friday night on the road to Vegas. Fwiw, Barstow had 2 spots open when I got there Friday dinnertime-ish, and was completely full minutes thereafter with a car waiting. And that's after the expansion.
Almost none of the non-Tesla owners who had questions knew about the Model 3 or the Model 3 signup opportunity on 3/31 either in person or online.
Of course Tesla doesn't advertise in the traditional sense, and of course they could care less how many people sign up on day 1 versus month 1, but there does seem to be an opportunity here in the next week to keep feeding the media press releases in order to increase excitement/awareness amongst the Great Unwashed.
OK, so in fairness the 3/31 date is not by accident since they can report the results of the day during the next quarterly call (pretty nice way to raise an extra $100 million (less ~1% for the card processing fees) in 24 hours interest-free for 2 years, eh).
That said, if my experiences last Friday/Saturday in CA/AZ are in any way indicative of the continent at large, it may well be that only the faithful will show up 3/31 and sign up 3/31.
After I gave the usual elevator pitch about the Model 3 and why it's important to sign up by 4/1 (best shot at the full federal tax credit, only shot at securing a Model 3 in 2018 (we didn't go into the inventory car option) fully loaded or not, and for the net price of a well-appointed Honda but with no gas/oil costs ever), most people ended up more interested than they were before they stopped by. Altogether I talked to 20-30 people this trip about, in part, the Model 3 thing - all impromptu conversations. Hopefully some of them sign up, and get an S in the meantime to tide them over.
One constant remains about that random sample - there is precious little awareness of the Model 3 or of signing up for it 3/31 amongst the non-faithful.�
Mar 23, 2016
Scott Wilcox I see people on the BMW forums talking about putting a reservation in and I see people on the Nissan LEAF forums planning on putting in a reservation. That is a pretty broad spectrum of possible buyers. That being said I have no idea on how many people will jump this soon before they are delivered. I think if people knew more about tax credits and why they should reserve one if they want one, I would say 100K would be possible. I still think a number of people think they can walk into a Tesla store in 2 years and just pick one up like at any other car dealer.�
Mar 23, 2016
Tedkidd Very common misconception. I convinced a Home Performance client who thought he'd get an X this way to buy a p85d late fall '14 (delivered march '15).�
Mar 23, 2016
eloder 100k is very reasonable within 24 hours, because for every one current Tesla owner there's most assuredly at least one friend, family member, coworker, or someone else acquainted who really, really wants a Tesla.�
Mar 23, 2016
cwerdna Yep,
I can easily afford a Model S, S-Class, BMW 7-series, but I don't care to buy any of these (including the C-Class, BMW 3-series, 4-series, etc.) for numerous reasons.
Sure they do. I know some of them.�
Mar 23, 2016
raysspl Yup, very likely it can go this way.�
Mar 24, 2016
trinites1a Yea I don't doubt in certain places their may be lines but on a whole 100k off the bat seems excessive. I mean if it happens great! I'm just saying it's unlikely.�
Mar 24, 2016
Big Dog cwerdana
You inadvertently (or purposely) took my example out of context....�
Mar 24, 2016
ummgood I am new to this forum...
I figured I could make a couple points from my point of view. I am a SW engineer and am pretty frugal. My wife stays at home with our kids. My commuter is a 2005 Toyota Tacoma with about 115k miles. My wife has a 2014 Odyssey Touring Elite. We typically do road trips for our vacations so we need an ICE with three kids so we can get to California or Florida without having a bunch of stops. With 3 kids flying and renting a car is leaps and bounds more expensive than driving. That is why we have the Odyssey. My oldest daughter will be 13 this year and in a couple years I'll be needing another car. Thankfully she loves my truck and wants that to drive so my plan is to buy myself a car in the next couple years and keep my truck for her.
Now let me give my thoughts on EV's. Until I bought the truck I am usually a sports car lover. I bought the truck out of practicality. While I would love to have an EV none up to this point have appealed to me except for the model S. I feel like the weird materials they use to be "green" and the strange designs (Leaf, i3, Bolt) just don't appeal to me at all. I am just not practical enough to overcome the goofy appearance that most EV's on the market have. I want a car to have sleek lines and style as well as a sporty nature. Unfortunately with 3 kids in private school and a wife that stays at home I cannot justify a 100k car. I can afford a 40 or 50k car in a couple years when the Odyssey is paid off. I have been sacrificing for a long time for my family so I figured my next car would be a bit of a splurge. I was thinking of something like a Nissan Maxima Platinum, Lexus IS, Audi A4, or BMW 3 series in that price range. I would love to get a Tesla but until the announcement for the Model 3 they were all too sky high priced for me. With Texas gas prices currently I can't justify it. I probably put about $100/month in gas in my truck so that isn't enough to bump me up to the Model S price point. Now that the Model 3 is out I am willing to put down $1k to get in line and wait it out to see if the car I desire will be in my price range and available in the time I need another car. This might even help me get rid of the new car fever I have had for the past couple months since I'll have something cool to wait for. The reason I said all of this is I am thinking there will be a lot of people like myself that have never owned an EV but are waiting for something that is affordable AND attractive. I never could get myself to consider an EV based on those two factors.
Now with that said I do know some guys at work that drive EV's. A couple have the Model S (A 80 and a 70D). I also know a couple with the i3. The two that drive the i3 is because BMW had an insane lease deal a couple years ago that makes the car almost free. The Model S guys have a longer commute than I do and charge their cars at work so they justify the high payment because they no longer have a $300/month gas bill. The point here is the Model S owners are "stretching" to afford the car. It probably is the same as buying a 50k SUV and having the gas savings since they don't really need to charge at home. While they love their cars I think they would have been just as satisfied with a Model 3 as long as the tech stays as awesome in that car. I have seen the argument that an S-Class owner wouldn't buy a C-Class. But at the same time I also have the point of view that a lot of the Model S drivers in Austin are probably buying the Model S by justifying it with gas savings etc... and never would have purchased a 80 or 90k car otherwise. Those types of Model S owners might reserve a Model 3 with the intention of selling their Model S and getting a lower payment. Think about how cool it would be to own a stripped level Model 3 and not pay gas for the payment of a Honda Civic. Pretty awesome in my eyes.
Now I work at a high tech company that has mostly engineers and I haven't heard anyone really talking about the Model 3 but me. Most of the guys have no idea about it or that pre-orders are opening up at this point. I am guessing maybe the 31st might be the people who have been actively waiting for this car like me. I think after there are pictures and a bunch of news stories then the pre-orders might start rolling in a few days after. I kind of am nervous a bit about putting a deposit down on a car I haven't seen. At least I hope with Tesla's S3XY model lineup all the cars will be as sexy as the model S or model X even though lower cost.
While I don't know exactly how many deposits Tesla will get on opening day I think there will be quite a few people willing to give the Model 3 a try that would have never purchased a EV because of cost or funky looks.
Anyway I'll be there on the 31st in the Austin showroom to put down my deposit. I plan on arriving as soon as I drop my kids off at school and battle Austin traffic. Hopefully the line isn't too insane...�
Mar 24, 2016
trinites1a
Good Job!.. Parents definitely deserve a splurge here and there.. I also agree that some Model S purchasers purchase based on gas savings factored in.. I have no doubt Tesla will create another compelling car in the Model 3 and that's part of the reason I'm reserving without having seen the car.�
Mar 24, 2016
TaoJones Not for nothing, but that transcontinental travel with the kids will only take 20% longer with the SC stops - and you'll finish each day more refreshed as well. There are caveats, but there are caveats with ICE travel as well. A recent trip from Ventura to Kingman took an extra hour because part of State Route 18 is missing. There's no there there. So everybody had to detour. Fortunately with the extra range of an MS, there was zero range anxiety. There was one person who had run out of gas. And so it goes.
Also, used MSs are going to be seen in the $30K range before the M3 ships. And at $40K for used higher-mileage AP MS. These are facts supported by even the most circumspect observation as well as by the numbers printed upon current owners' GRV forms. So within 2 years, it will become even less justifiable or rationalizable to drive an ICE.
Putting down $1K on 3/31 and no later than 4/1 merely optimizes one's chances of securing the maximum tax credit along with having any chance at all of an M3 (short of an inventory car) before 2020. Yep - I expect no more than 50K M3 in 2018 and 100K M3 in 2019, and would be quite happy if Tesla exceeds those perhaps conservative production targets.�
Mar 24, 2016
DougH Camping out LOL�
Mar 24, 2016
graphix25 Since we are talking about forecast in demand and sales volumes I thought I would share some of my data.
I have been studying the luxury market and have built a sales forecast for Tesla. I have also complied sales history for the big three German brands for general comparison from that last few years. I was surprised to find that BMW, Diamler and Audi all ship about 2m cars globally each as compared to Toyota and GM at nearly 10m a piece. Tesla has a long way to go to even get to 1m+ cars annually. As a long term investor in stocks in general and Tesla specifically I hope my forecast is right. If I'm right in my forecast and they have a strong energy business, $2500-3000 a share could be a distinct possibility from $227 today. I will buy one of each Tesla model if that occurs for my retirement gift to myself in 2030. It will be called My SEXYR Garage. Maybe I will do a you tube channel about it... The garage will have big solar panels over the whole place making my cars all nuclear powered.
�
Mar 24, 2016
Bimbels Actually, there are a LOT of current Tesla owners who will be reserving a model 3. (Like me.) For us it will be replacing our other (ICE) car - we don't need 2 huge cars, we don't need 2 $85K cars (we have a 70D, moderately optioned,) we previously had cars and prefer cars in the Model 3 size range. We spent more on our 70D than we ever had on a car previously by about double. We can afford a P90D S or X - but that isn't "us." We would never spend that much on a car even though money is not the issue. So yeah, there are plenty of S/X owners who would buy the "C-Class."
Not only are many Model S owners reserving the M3 as their second tesla, they are also buying the M3 for their kids and/or their parents. One guy posted that he's reserving 4 for members of his family. I think there will be a substantial number of S/X owners who reserve the Model 3.�
Mar 24, 2016
gigglehertz As a Leaf driver, I can tell you from personal anecdotal experience that there is a great deal of enthusiasm over the Model ? from Leaf drivers I have met at the local Chademo watering hole in town. We all love our car in general, LOVE the torque, but also lust after the longer range, the supercharger network, the large touch screen, autopilot, and the OTA updates. Your are right in that the Leaf is currently the default choice of the non 1%'rs out there, but the Model ? is the car of our dreams. Everyone who has seen the D launch videos lusts after this car. Most people at work i talked to had no problems with electric cars, just the range and availability of charging on long trips. Not everyone is in the market for a new car, and not everyone will put down $1k for a car not due out for 2 years. I don't know what the numbers will be, but it will be HUGE compared to the Model S/X.�
Mar 24, 2016
cwerdna I'd say most of your comments are on the mark, except other than some folks on the net posting on EV-centric forums I'm on, I know of maybe only one person who plans to reserve a Model 3 on the March 31st. For the rest, nope. (I've been driving a Leaf for over 2.5 years and we have PLENTY of EVs and PHEVs at my work, including a # of Model S.)
That includes people who seem to bring up Tesla a bunch at work (and drive no EV nor PHEV) (I mentioned them at Prediction: Model 3 Orders to reach 100k in 24 hours). One guy at work who had a Leaf and got rid of it by turning it in early (for him, it was good riddance, long story) long ago kept wanting to order a Model S. He never did and I asked him today if he was going to pre-order a 3 on the 31st. His answer was also no.
I agree w/all the positives you mention about the Model S.
As for Model 3 is the car of our dreams or whatever... well, we don't know the details, and if you've followed Model S reliability and the teething issues so far w/the Model X (which I admit to not following very closely as I don't care, I have no interest in the X), I'm not sure it's the car "of my dreams" either.�
Mar 25, 2016
lklundin Never one to shy away from the chance of extra publicity, Elon Musk may do something entirely different:
During the Model 3 unveil he could stand in front of a big screen with a real-time updated counter of the actual reservations...
Obviously, if such a screen were to be there a debate would ensue over its accuracy and it would make for even more media attention...
I see that the web-server of Tesla Motors is using Varnish (unlike that of SpaceX), so they likely feel confident that they can handle a massive increase in their web-server load. It would also be a pity to not be able to serve a web-page to someone who wants to hand you a 1000$ (or a 1000�)...�
Mar 25, 2016
FlatSix911 Interesting news and delivery forecast the US market ...
SpaceX employees are now able to reserve the Tesla Model 3 early
The list of people having priority on the Tesla Model 3 reservation queue keeps growing. After Tesla employees, Electrek learned from sources that SpaceX employees can now also reserve Tesla�s upcoming third generation vehicle set to be unveiled on March 31st. Like for most Tesla employees, it appears most SpaceX employees reserving the vehicle are doing so sight unseen. Beside showing more synergy between Elon Musk�s two companies, it also adds up to now 3 groups of people having priority on the Tesla Model 3 reservation queue: Tesla employees, Tesla owners and SpaceX employees.
As we often mentioned in the past few months, the reservation process for the Model 3 is particularly important. Beyond proving demand for a long-range affordable electric vehicle, the process will also create an interesting situation in the US where the $7500 Federal tax credit for electric vehicles is capped at 200,000 units sold per manufacturer.
Tesla is expected to hit its limit in 2018, which means that an early reservation can help ensure the availability of the full tax credit for the vehicle and make it even less expensive. Here�s how we expect Tesla to reach 200,000 units cap:
Tesla has around 15,000 employees worldwide, while SpaceX employs around 5,000 people, most of them in California. Additionally, Tesla has a base of over 100,000 owners with around half in the US. Of course the availability of the tax credit will depend on Tesla bringing the Model 3 to market on time (late 2017) and on a successful production ramp up.
It�s still likely that most eligible people placing a reservation will have access to at least some form of tax credit. Under the current law, once the 200,000 cap is reached, customers will have access to the full credit for a full quarter with no apparent limit on units. They will then receive $3,750 for the following 6 month. It will again go down to $1,875 for the following 6 months. That means that for most of 2019 Tesla buyers won�t likely have much federal incentive to buy cars. By 2020, the Federal subsidy will have likely run out.
SpaceX employees being given early access to Model 3 reservations is only the latest example of collaboration between the two companies headed by Elon Musk. The CEO recently hired Apple�s alloy expert to lead materials engineering at both Tesla and SpaceX, and the automaker made a SPaceX factory tour one of the prizes for its Model S owner referral program. The two companies also shared technology in the past.
The early access is certainly a nice perk for Tesla and SpaceX employees who have the most stressful jobs (and most meaningful) in the tech industry, according to a recent survey. If you are not on Tesla�s or SpaceX�s payroll, you can still reserve the vehicle and the automaker released all the details on how to reserve your place in line starting on the day of the unveiling March 31st.�
![[?IMG]](https://electrek.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/estimated-and-projected-cumulative-tesla-sales-in-the-u-s-1.png?w=1500&h=810)
Mar 25, 2016
No2DinosaurFuel Is there that much demand for this car? I mean realistically looking at it, sure there are a few people who are waiting for lower priced Tesla, but not everyone is looking for a new car, let alone a $40K+ car after everything. Moreover, gas is relatively cheap. Finally, I am not sure everyone is sold on the electric car stuff. This might sound like heresy in this forum, but I just want to give everyone a realistic view of things.
Apple new iphone, I can understand for the line. The cost is expensive for a phone, but something people can actually afford even if they don't make big bucks each month. This is a car btw. I predict the traffic will be light. Again I can be totally wrong, but that is my prediction. Now that being said, placing a deposit is just a way to put yourself in line. So it might turn out many people will place the deposit, but end up buying something else or not buying at all before the release.
Safe to say, I would check out the gallery the day before. If there is a line forming, I doubt I would take off work to reserve one in store. Who does that now-a-day anyways. Hoping here there wouldn't be a crowd so I can actually go in and reserve one.�
Mar 25, 2016
jbcarioca My closest car analogue was the first Honda Accord being sold in the country where I lived at the time, Bahrain where the 1976 waiting list was nine months long. Back then I bought one, drove it two days, hated it, and resold it for a 50% markup! The Model 3 certainly has far more appeal than did the Accord back then but the very existence of queues generates more interest, regardless of other factors. Frankly, I think gasoline prices are not a driver in this category, although they might be for the Volt/Bolt/Leaf type of category. Even there most of the buyers are choosing the technology more than a simply cost equation, or so I think.�
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