Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan I don't see an existing topic about the Tesla 2014 Annual Shareholders Meeting so since I am at this moment sitting in the meeting room waiting for it to start I thought I would start one. I'll share my impressions after the meeting, and maybe during if something really exciting is announced!�
Jun 3, 2014
GasDoc I just got here. They are being strict about proving stock ownership. I brought a page from my statement that didn't have my name and they made me log on to show them the brokerage statement.�
Jun 3, 2014
Norbert The link has been posted in the short-term chat thread, but not everyone might find it there, so here:
Announcement: Tesla Announces 2014 Annual Stockholder Meeting and Public Webcast | Press Releases | Tesla Motors
Webcast (meeting starts 11:00 Pacific Time, currently says "Stay Tuned") : 2014 Shareholder Meeting | Tesla Motors�
Jun 3, 2014
Lump In the meeting also, drove up from LA with my brother & he forgot his proxy at home, he has a B of A private brokerage account that doesn't allow log in from the computers in the lobby so he was sent the the guest viewing room. A lot stricter security then I expected.�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan @gasdoc,That's odd, I had the opposite experience. My wife owns TSLA through her USAA brokerage account. My name is not on the statement. I showed the people at checkin the statement with her name on it and my drivers license and they didn't even question me about it.
I am sitting on the left side edge of the left side aisle, 6th row from the front if anyone wants to say hello. Black t-shirt and tan pants.�
Jun 3, 2014
Bgarret Careful, they are probably monitoring this site and security is on its way to evict you....for those listening online - what's up with the music?? Oceans 18?�
Jun 3, 2014
SteveG3 yes... now sounds like driving into the future�
Jun 3, 2014
hershey101 For those of you at home, is the live stream not working?�
Jun 3, 2014
Familial Rhino Works for me with no interruptions.�
Jun 3, 2014
SteveG3 working on Chrome�
Jun 3, 2014
MikeC Those of us pretending to be working would appreciate any live updates that could be provided...�
Jun 3, 2014
AnOutsider Poor guy, they seem to be steamrolling his proposal.�
Jun 3, 2014
Norbert Elon's presentation about to start (watching webcast).�
Jun 3, 2014
Familial Rhino They're taking a vote on a shareholder proposal to end the supermajority voting currently required for changing the company's bylaws and for other purposes.
There is a comment now from another shareholder expressing his objections to the executive compensation plan because it leads (according to him, I don't know the details) to a 100% dilution in 25 years.
That was the formal part of the meeting, which is ending now. Elon Musk will follow very shortly.�
Jun 3, 2014
ggies07 what's going on with that vote? I knew nothing of an opposition. Did you guys? Or was that new?�
Jun 3, 2014
AnOutsider That commentor sort of echoed my sentiments. The proxy vote seems to be for show than anything. They collected them quite quickly without really hearing any discussion.�
Jun 3, 2014
yobigd20 Elon: big effort to double the number of installed superchargers by end of this year!!�
Jun 3, 2014
Familial Rhino Elon is on.
Stats:
- 344 million miles driven with no serious injury or fatality, despite some "pretty crazy crashes."
- 126 retail locations
- 77 service centers
- 11x superchargers (couldn't see the last digit)
- He wants people to like their Model S more than their house.
- Excited about upcoming software which will personalize the car a lot more.
- The car will learn your behaviour, alerting about traffic, calendar integration, etc.
- Will use crowdsourced traffic info, will add other data sources.
- Have introduced improved the hardware (battery shield, parking sensors)
- Sales have been "pretty good"
- Production limited, with battery cells biggest constraint
- Will steadily ramp up, with some step changes in the number of cars produced
- Approaching 30% gross margin
- The value of the options is slightly reducing (to approach ~$95,000)
- Stores and service centers will grow by 75% in 2014
- Superchargers will grow by 200%
- Really focused on establishing the supercharger networks internationally
- Gigafactory: advanced in planning, optimistic that a minimum of 30% reduction in costs for battery, he thinks it's conservative
- He feels good about the partnership with Panasonic, daily meetings
- At first Pana weren't sure they can achieve those reductions, now they think they can
- Now showing the Model X
- The production car is better than the concept
- It was very difficult to accomplish this, but they wanted to make a car that would blow people away
- The second row seats were challenging. He is really focus on creating a "Wow" experience when people open the door; the seats should be worthy of being in a museum
- Dual motors
- Production second half 2015
- With Gen3 he expects $35k with > 200 miles range
- Equivalent with a gasoline car in the ~$25k
- The Gigafactory and the tooling for the G3 must move in sync for delivery in late 2016
- Tesla coast-to-coast now possible by "admittedly circuitous route"
- Guinness world record for the fastest trip LA-NY in an electric car
Question time
---------------
Q: Since the Toyota deal fell through and they use FCV, what is your outlook on the competition with fuel cell?
A: The deal stopped because we are cell-constrained. We may circle back in a year or two once this is solved. That's we need the Gigafactory. Fuel cells are "fool cells". Any storage tech should provide a big advantage. Fuel cells aren't used in cell phones OR satellites for a reason.
Q: A lady points out that many women want to buy a Tesla, but many women who have that buying power are older and shorterCould you make the car friendlier for women (she cannot reach the pedals)? We are the majority after all!
A: You're right, we may be too guy-centric with the S, we'll remedy with the X.
Q: Tesla merchandise: any consideration to improve the range of that stuff?
A: Yes, will do.
Q: Will you able to ramp up production beyond what you expect now?
A: We'll do our best to ramp up as rapidly as we can and see what the demand limits are (not there yet).
About seats: will offer upgraded seats this year, available as retrofit as well. Made subtle improvements to seat comfort (the foam, springs, lumbar support.) He agrees seats weren't that great before.
Q: Why did you abandon Model E name?
A: Initially we were like, we have S and X, we might as well make it the "E". It kinda stuck, even if though it was a joke. Considered Model Y, too. Ford threatened to sue over Model E ("Ford is killing sex!"). We are in the application process so we can't comment yet on the new name, but it's pretty good.
Q: You were planning to step down as a CEO at some point? Can you comment? Who would replace you?
A: Nobody can stay on forever. In my case, it's difficult to be CEO of 2 companies, and it was never the plan. I've committed to stay on at least until volume production (4-5 years from now), and depending on how it's going at that time, he'll keep going, but only if he won't face burnout. That's his current commitment at a minimum. Will re-evaluate.
Q: Follow-up: "I'm a supergenius as yourself. [...] Can you give me a second look?". Musk: what do you mean? "I want to come on as vicepresident of Tesla, or CEO". Musk: "Let's move on..."
Q: To advance the long term goal, would you open up the network to other manufacturers?
A: The intent is not for a walled garden. Other manuf. must produce cars able to absorb those kinds of power levels (135kW). Nobody has approached us, but we want them to. They'd have to contribute to the capital costs, but we're very open.
Q: ... missed
Q: How do you balance the desire of electrifying transportation by having other successful manufacturers with your fiduciary duty?
A: It's surprising that the other manuf. still only make compliance cars. He was hoping for more. He doesn't think others' success would be to the detriment of Tesla. The car market is enormous, there is room for everyone. It would take 20 years to replace the fleet at current rates of prod. Tesla makes a tiny percentage, they're still trying to move to the next decimal point in market share. He's thinking to make a decision on Tesla's patents, didn't elaborate.
Q: Dual carbon batteries? Can the GF be retooled for this kind of battery?
A: Every day a new kind of battery is announced. The filter to assess these is: energy density (in contrast with power density.) The problem with dual carbon is low energy density (20% of current density). Range and cost per unit energy are the important factors. There are other potential breakthroughs, but we have yet to see one functioning in our lab. My response is: please send us a sample cell! Never got one.
Q: I recently drove an i3. Model S is much better, but I was impressed by the level of interest from consumers. Gen3 is so late, what are the constraints?
A: To create a compelling mass-market car we need a lot of batteries that don't cost too much. The GF is vital for that level of vol. and for reducing costs. There will be innovations in the cell as well as monster economies of scale. The soonest we can do that is late 2016. We could produce a better i3 today, but it wouldn't be great, just ok.
A: We're doing two states for the GF, we may do three. We'll select one site before the end of the year.
A: It would be straightforward to retool the GF for other anode/cathode. We expect to do that, actually.
Q: When will we get a new Roadster?
A: We are planning an update for it, we're hoping to do it this year. We'll do something before the end of this year. A next gen roadster is 5 years away.
..... I lost connectivity :-(
Q: I'm taking delivery in July. In the long term, S&P rated your debt as junk. What do you think is the best move for Tesla to make the stock an even better value?
A: S&P rating: we expected they'd do that, because from their perspective they look in the rear view mirror. They just look at the GAAP from the past. To be expected, because they look backwards. The equity markets look forward. That's why we did convertibles. The long term: lot of potential for stock growth. What would Tesla look like if it produced .5 mil cars, what is the ASP, what is the Net Present Value of future cash flows, etc. With multiple factories around the world, there is potential for Tesla to become the largest company in the world. In the medium term, impossible to predict. The market is manic-depressive. It depends on market's confidence in Tesla's execution. We can't do anything about the volatility.
Q: Would you have lunch with me?
A: Appreciate the request, but I am time constrained.
Q: Autograph?
A: Sure, ok.
Q: (an 11-year old) I invested in Tesla last year (applause.) Can I have a tour of the factory?
A: Absolutely!
Q: (DaveT) What's after Gen3? With 100 mil vehicles per year, is Gen3 gonna be enough to propel the world to electric vehicles, or should there be an even more affordable care available (sub-$30k). Would that be the same platform?
A: We'll do whatever it takes to accelerate adoption. Gen3 it's the holy grail, because affordable cars are not compelling, and the compelling are not affordable. That's what Gen3 brings. Beyond that, we can think of additional steps, it would make sense to go into trucks, and probably into something cheaper.
Q: What's Lathrop about?
A: We're setting manuf. to supply Freemont because we can't produce 500k and be as vertically integrated as we are now.
Q: [Can't hear the question. About insider sales]
Q: Tesla has the best range, but it's still not enough. I live in Tahoe, come to the Bay Area often, so the challenge: to make Tahoe to Bay Area and back.
A: We could do it now, but it would be very expensive, but you should expect improvements in range over time.
Q: (from Taiwan) There are many suppliers in Taiwan. You want to make cars affordable. Could you share more details about partnerships with Foxconn?
A: It's a promising relationship, we'll always be a manufacturer, but they can help us accelerate.
Q: There were complaints in China about shortages. What will you do worldwide to alleviate this?
A: We're going as fast as we can, I told the team to spend as fast as they can as long as they don't waste it.
Demand is not our issue.
Q: Can you tell us about autopilot?
A: We're making progress. I'm confident that in a year you can go from highway on-ramp to exit without touching any controls.
Q: The Nissan Leaf has an affordable car. What's your competitive advantage?
A: Leaf's range is quite low, not competitive with gasoline cars. Tesla will be competitive there, we hope Nissan will be too.
Q: When will we see Model X delivered? [Something about the milliamp rating per cell.]
A: ...
Q: Is it possible that Tesla would participate in the ??? rally?
A: We are not interested in racing because that's demand generation and we're focused on increasing production.
Q & A has ended.
The proposed resolutions are resolved in line with what the board recommended.
The end.�
Jun 3, 2014
GasDoc "Software coming out later this year to personalize your car" naming car, calendar integration, navigation enhancements. Traffic optimized a la Waze. "Coming out really soon"�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO Well, last year they opened and closed the voting and then announced results immediately after closing the vote...because a majority of shares had already been accounted for. So really it's ceremonial, unfortunately.�
Jun 3, 2014
dsm363 Exciting! Looking forward to the new software.�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan Showing photo of X with side mirrors but Elon saying production version looks "better". Doesn't define why. Hmm...�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO There's no way to do no side mirrors without regulation changes. We would know if they had been changed.�
Jun 3, 2014
AnOutsider He said the production X looks "better" than this, but this picture looks different than what we saw. More angular and longer?
�
Jun 3, 2014
sleepyhead Elon just said Gen III "2016 time frame"
Sounds like big news to me, since some were speculating that it will not come out until much later.�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan Question time now. This should be fun. Elon seems to be in good humor.�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO Well, he said hopefully late 2016, which means probably late 2017, haha. But yes,, agreed, that is pretty big news, that date had not been mentioned before.�
Jun 3, 2014
FluxCap Forum members, get to the mic!�
Jun 3, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney In the 4th dimension Elon Musk has a very large frame.�
Jun 3, 2014
yobigd20 this. originally I thought they said 2018. then I thought they said 2017. Now they are saying end of 2016. This is GREAT!
- - - Updated - - -
elon: "fool cells" LOL�
Jun 3, 2014
AnOutsider Hmm, so toyota wanted to do a high volume deal, but Tesla said no. So looks like Toyota is focusing on hydrogen until Tesla can come back with more.�
Jun 3, 2014
yobigd20 "sportier and more comfortable seats for Model S coming later this year and yes they are retrofitable."
- - - Updated - - -
ford is killing "SEX" LOL�
Jun 3, 2014
ckessel Either he's just extra relaxed or he's been working on it, but Elon's public speaking is much better lately, and particularly today, than it was a year ago.�
Jun 3, 2014
uselesslogin I guess we should have bet on which question number instead of if.�
Jun 3, 2014
yobigd20 wow... that was weird.�
Jun 3, 2014
mitch672 Wow, question: "I would, like to be vice chairman of tesla motors, please give me a 2nd look"
Yikes�
Jun 3, 2014
ggr Well, he was much more ambitious anyway.�
Jun 3, 2014
cgiGuy I think Elon just got trolled.�
Jun 3, 2014
AnOutsider Soooo awkward. Smart people with social skills are so hard to come by.�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan Some of these questions are rather trivial. I was hoping for more serious questions that address broader issues.�
Jun 3, 2014
ckessel *facepalm*, some really either crazy or just silly questions/comments.
Might be better to ask for written questions ahead of time and screen them...�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan Musk remains baffled as to why other companies are still not producing serious long range EVs, as am I.�
Jun 3, 2014
green1 That's a bit of a double edged sword, it gets rid of the ridiculous questions, but often it also gets rid of the really tough questions that need to be asked but are uncomfortable for the people in charge. Possibly better would be some form of online posting of questions with a vote mechanism for people to choose the ones to be answered...�
Jun 3, 2014
FluxCap Especially with some truly kooky people in the audience. He's doing great.�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO Sounds like he wants to release tesla's patents....�
Jun 3, 2014
FluxCap Big oil is the dominant power on our planet, and they have nothing to gain from widespread EV adoption. That is why.�
Jun 3, 2014
green1 Good for society at large... not so good for Tesla shareholders...�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO Not necessarily...�
Jun 3, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney And the non-conspiracy-theory version: because they have engines and can more easily build ICEV, HEV or PHEV.�
Jun 3, 2014
uselesslogin "It might actually be 3 states"�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan Wow. Elon just said Tesla may select three gigafactory sites instead of two. But two for sure.�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO This is probably California plus whatever their choices were. Also note how he called it "gigafactory 1"�
Jun 3, 2014
yobigd20 finally you got your roadster question asked!
elon: "something cool by end of this year!"�
Jun 3, 2014
Runarbt
Maybe release the patents on the batteries, keep the patents on the superchargers?
The SC network is the real key to success.�
Jun 3, 2014
FluxCap Davet up next!�
Jun 3, 2014
Bgarret Here comes the S&P bitchslap...�
Jun 3, 2014
FluxCap Most valuable company in the world.�
Jun 3, 2014
blakegallagher Dave is on !! .... Thankyou so much for asking about lanthrop !�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO Interesting point to add to DaveT's question: the graphic earlier said Roadster was "$$$$", Model S "$$$", Gen 3 "$$".
So what about "$"?�
Jun 3, 2014
AnOutsider haha no pressure here re: question confidence�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO ....Why would he need to do a round trip with no charging at all? There's tons of chargers in San Francisco and a supercharger between the places. Does he plan to just drive into SF and turn around and go back without stopping?
I'm glad Elon told him no, at least.�
Jun 3, 2014
FluxCap Nice questions, Dave.�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan Lathrop explained, finally. Need to move some component production out of Fremont so that the plant can produce half million vehicles per year when Gen III really ramps up. No mystery.�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan "Less than a year to go from highway on ramp to highway exit without touching the controls". Wow.�
Jun 3, 2014
Runarbt agree.. that was my exact my reply also.. Wow!�
Jun 3, 2014
AnOutsider Self-driving doesn't seem to be at the point Google is, but from on-ramp to exit ramp without touching controls within the next year�
Jun 3, 2014
blakegallagher ... wow He said within a year you would be able to do that (auto driving on highways) ... do you think he meant in production ? or they would be able to in their testing? If they get that into production within a year ... Wow�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO I'd like to see some execution on this. Elon has talked a lot about self-driving but so far the Model S has nothing of the sort. I would expect that if there will be full automation on the highway, we would have seen something by now. So hopefully we get something soon. Because these things need to be stepped into gradually, "public beta tested," etc. Unless they're just going to use Mercedes' system or something (which seems plenty possible).
Note by the way that on-ramp to off-ramp would suggest the car will change lanes for you, which I don't believe any other car currently does.�
Jun 3, 2014
AnOutsider I would welcome it, but doubt it would be in production. That would mean those ordering an X now would potentially be able to choose it as an option. I'm thinking he more meant their tech would be at that point and they'd be able to show it off.
I'd love to be wrong though.
Especially since we don't even have adaptive cruise yet.�
Jun 3, 2014
yobigd20 google's self driving car is limited to 25mph because of the removal of steering wheel and brakes. big difference between tesla's version and google's version.�
Jun 3, 2014
techmaven What is interesting is the move to do it now instead of next year or the year after.�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO I actually think the first time we'll get "self-driving" stuff (external sensors, like lane change warnings, adaptive cruise, etc. etc.) will be when X comes out, and they'll get added to S as an option at the same time. Just a guess on my part.�
Jun 3, 2014
FluxCap Double Wow!�
Jun 3, 2014
Alfred Watched it here in Zurich (Switzerland). No problem, well done Tesla.�
Jun 3, 2014
arondaniel Lol... Hello Elon I'm a day trader so can you please say something to goose the stock price so my sell order hits? KTHX!�
Jun 3, 2014
Yuri_G It has brakes, just no break pedal. And I believe the 25 mph speed limit is because it is not legally allowed to drive on public roads, so it is limited to driving around the Googleplex at reasonable speeds.�
Jun 3, 2014
green1 And people wonder why he won't take SpaceX public....�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO Well I hope the full video gets put up soon, because my stream died right in the part I was most interested in, the Roadster upgrades :-/
I got most of it, but not the tail end of the answer.�
Jun 3, 2014
dalalsid Somehow this doesn't look as nice as the Model X on the website.�
Jun 3, 2014
techmaven I'm so furious. The majority of these questions were inane. Good to see DaveT and thanks for slipping in that Lanthrop question.�
Jun 3, 2014
MikeC Thanks everyone for the updates, especially Familial Rhino.�
Jun 3, 2014
FluxCap This is a fantastic summary, and thank you Familial!�
Jun 3, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Not to be Mr Killjoy, but that only means
a) Lane keep assist
b) Active Cruise Control
I hope they'll do blind spot detection too.
I think it's great that they'll have it because it's another couple of items checked off the "reasons not to buy a Model S" list and they should be introducing it with the full set of Autopilot sensors which means software updates to add the remaining features over time.�
Jun 3, 2014
Familial Rhino For those who couldn't see the stream and don't want to wait for the recording, I updated my earlier post. Not much going on.
I thought the most interesting was the thing he said at one point about doing something with Tesla's patents to encourage technology adoption. He said he had to write it up first to explain it properly. To me, it almost sounded like he wants to give them away (or on very advantageous terms) and he wanted to avoid a shareholder lawsuit. Did anyone else here take it the same way?�
Jun 3, 2014
Norbert They are planning an exciting Roadster upgrade for the end of this year. At the end, Elon seemed to decide on the fly to make it really for the end of this year, rather than next year.�
Jun 3, 2014
eepic I hypothesize he's saving the formal autopilot announcement and demonstration for the Model X reveal as one of the highlighted selling points, with MS retrofits available later down the road. My reasoning is I've noticed that his anticipated dates for when he'll talk more about autopilot get pushed back alongside MX.
I'd call BS if it were anyone else in the industry other than Elon saying this, because of his experience (and expertise around him) with avionics and guidance systems at SpaceX. I'm optimistic but realistically expecting the timeline to be between one to two years minimum before we see it in consumer hands.
Also, thanks Dave for getting up there and asking some good questions!�
Jun 3, 2014
TI Sailor I agree you'd need all those things to safely drive from on-ramp to off-ramp. I thought the one question I wanted answered, e.g., frontal crash protection, would never be asked. A "self-driving" mechanism would have to include that, and that's great. Even sub-$20k cars now offer, and IISH mandates it for its highest rating.�
Jun 3, 2014
davecolene0606 Well,
Sounds like its time to pony up for an X res, anyone know what S60 might sell for next year?
Anyway, pretty tame questions, think Dave did well, liked the day trader kid too. I was sorta surprised at Elons rather tempered statements during the slide show kinda nuthin real new but sounds like steady as she goes.
Anyone think the software stuff he was talkin bout was 6.0?
Cheers, sad I'm not at the after lunch! Can you guys live stream it?�
Jun 3, 2014
Norbert Yes, I wonder what that will be. It seemed to be something specific.
Elon was quite casual about a lot of positive things.
I have to admit I was affected by the media FUD enough to be really glad to hear that Elon is as firm on 35,000 deliveries this year as ever.�
Jun 3, 2014
blakegallagher Yes I heard it the same way. Somewhat concerned but then again ... I doubt even without all of the patents anyone could execute as well as Tesla. And thanks for the great summary as it happened .... I missed the first part of the meeting and was very thankful for your updates.
update been under the weather and woke up long enough to catch the last half of the meeting. Look forward to reading all of your thoughts when I am feeling a little better. Next time I awaken I hope to see about 30 positive news articles and a few doom and gloom stories about Tesla losing its moat.�
Jun 3, 2014
TI Sailor I didn't think he was equivocal about Panasonic's participation in the gigafactory like he was during Q4 results discussion. Sounds like that's settled except for the $$$.:smile:�
Jun 3, 2014
Norbert It was definitely good to hear that Panasonic is now convinced of the cost reductions to be expected. Plus, the confidence that it will be more that 30% seems to have increased.�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO With the rate at which battery cost down has been happening for the last several decades I'm convinced that 30pct is conservative, given scale and margin and integration benefits as well.�
Jun 3, 2014
ggies07 Do you think with how Elon said they could probably do even more, that they might try to hit the $30,000 mark even though they say 35 right now? There once was a $30,000 mark, but then moved up over time. I know it's been discussed a lot, but I think Tesla will only hit the upper middle class with that $35,000 mark and Elon seems to think that is the WHOLE mass market, which it is not. But coming from a 70-100,000 price I understand why he thinks that.�
Jun 3, 2014
shelbri He said 200% increase in Superchargers but didn't say where. Is focus outside US market�
Jun 3, 2014
yobigd20 I'd bet the patent's he's talking are the ones with regards to opening up the supercharging adapter protocol so that other EVs can utilize Tesla's supercharger network. I'd seriously doubt he'd give away any other Tesla IP.�
Jun 3, 2014
SteveG3 If Elon pursues this it will be interesting to read what he writes up about it.
Since about the Detroit Auto Show I've had some confidence that Tesla is approaching what you might call "escape velocity" in terms of competition from other automakers. By this I mean, if they execute Gen III as they've described, it will simply be a better value proposition than an ICE vehicle for about half the automarket (~$25K vehicles and up), and in a handful of years will be a better value proposition for basically all price points. At that point it is not about Tesla quality vehicles from Tesla and any other EV entrants competing with each other, but rather, Tesla and anyone else making such high quality EVS, together accelerating the transition from ICE vehicles to EVs.
Think about the old joke, "How fast do you need to be if a bear shows up while you are camping in the woods? Faster than at least one of your friends." Our friends are all the ICE cars, once EVs are plainly a better value proposition than ICE vehicles, Tesla only has to run faster than the competition from ICE vehicles. How long will our slowest friend be an ICE? Decades...
As Elon mentioned today, there will be a 100 million vehicle global automarket in 2020. We know based on current lithium ion Gigafactory cost projections that would mean $1 trillion in battery investment to turn all production from ICE to EVs. At it's best, perhaps Tesla could get production up to 3 million vehicles in the early-mid 2020s. If half the market would choose an EV if available, what do we as Tesla shareholders have to lose if Elon opens the patents up? Toyota has about $40 billion in cash. All the global automakers have maybe 20% of the trillion needed to build infrastructure to convert to EVs. If it's battery technology it will take decades to build the infrastructure for it. It's possible there's some alternative technology that would only take a very small fraction of that trillion dollars to build manufacturing infrastructure for... but I don't know of such a technology, let alone one within a decade of reaching the market. Any infrastructure that will on the scale of a trillion dollars to build up, or $300 billion for that matter, will take decades to be installed.
Elon may have decided the issue is not a risk of other automakers taking sales from Tesla, but rather how does he finally convince the other automakers to produce compelling EVs. If the world is ready for 40 million EVs of Tesla quality in 2020, his worry is getting the other guys to build Gigafactories, not whether Tesla will sell all of it's 1-5 million into 40 million in demand.
Perhaps this idea is not airtight, but it may be the case that once Elon successfully pilots Tesla to a mass market car obviously better than ICE, he can in good faith serve his fiduciary responsibility to us shareholders, and allow very cheap, even free access to the battery IP to serve the mission he's repeatedly stated, accelerating the advent of sustainable transportation.�
Jun 3, 2014
uselesslogin I think most that 200% increase is mapped on their website. There are probably more sites coming in Asia as well.
Supercharger | Tesla Motors�
Jun 3, 2014
kenliles agree with that. Once GF and GenIII are simply execution, the biggest risk to Tesla may actually be that others AREN'T following. The market makes only if everybody plays.�
Jun 3, 2014
Larken Yes exactly, and if Tesla would open up its patents or whatever he was alluding to, to accelerate the adoption of EVs, then he would basically destroy big oil, which is a win win for everyone...... Even us as TSLA shareholders would win. Whatever Elon and Tesla Management are considering of doing, they're not dumb enough to give away all our share holder value. Perhaps he is just realizing that the cake is huge, and there's room for everyone to enjoy it. And I'm sure whatever Tesla will do, they will still make sure that Tesla will be somehow earn royalties on the supercharger network or whatever. Elon is always, always 5 steps ahead.�
Jun 3, 2014
eepic I think whatever it is, Elon is going to borrow from the software world and make the patents under something similar to a GNU public license. Elon's a big fan of open sourcing in the past, a la Hyperloop, Falcon9R landing video, etc.�
Jun 3, 2014
Familial Rhino The context was his surprise and disappointment that the other manufacturers are still stuck in the "we'll make'em if you force us, but we don't have to like it" mindset, leading them to only make compliance cars (with the notable exception of Nissan, I'd add, but he didn't mention them.) Elsewhere, when he talked about being very open to sharing the supercharger network, he did not mention patents.
I'd take the other side of that bet.�
Jun 3, 2014
eepic Promoting EV adoption would help reach the critical mass needed for more public and private infrastructure (public charging stations, hotels, etc). Likely if Gen3 is compelling, they will be production capacity constrained for the better part of a decade anyways.�
Jun 3, 2014
SteveG3 Yes, he's publicly expressed surprise and dismay about the non-response of other automakers since at least Tesla Live, about a year ago. I'm sure that in the very rare spare moments Elon has he thinks about, "What will it take to finally get these guys to make a real effort at EVs (Nissan excepted)." So, perhaps his controversial idea is getting to the day he can say ~we have a 5 million person waiting list on our cars... here's the recipe, go build a Gigafactory and serve these people! It makes me a bit nervous, but if he waits until 4-5 years from now when he sees Gen III volume production executed, that is, "escape velocity" from competition, it may be a win for all of us.�
Jun 3, 2014
Norbert So he *did* say largest company in the world. I was afraid it was my wishful thinking...�
Jun 3, 2014
SteveG3 thought he said one of the largest... no complaints with either.�
Jun 3, 2014
Familial Rhino I'm pretty sure I heard "the largest company in the world", unqualified. It caught my attention while I was transcribing (could be wrong about that, obviously.)�
Jun 3, 2014
kenliles i remember it as one of the most valuable...�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan Yes he was very clear that he considered the other currently available EVs to be primarily compliance cars and not serious vehicles, but I think his subtext was that no other EV right now is "compelling" and that includes the Leaf. And I agree with him. The Leaf meets almost no ones requirements as their sole vehicle and few consider it a fun and exciting car to drive.
In his comments about the i3 he was clear that he did not find it compelling either and said that Tesla could make an EV right now in that price range and mileage range but he didn't want to build such a vehicle because it wouldn't be "compelling" and it wouldn't change the car market in the way that he feels the Gen III car will.
To shift the car industry from ICE to EV it is necessary to offer EVs that are better than conventional cars at a price most people can afford.
The Model S is a better car than any ICE but it's too costly for the vast majority of car buyers. The goal of the Gen III, in my opinion, is to be affordable for a majority of buyers in the developed world (North America, Europe, much of East Asia) once one factors in the TCO savings over the life of the car AND to be the most "compelling" (fun and exciting) car available in that price range. If it does that it will be a game changer.�
Jun 3, 2014
Norbert Tesla posted a video recording on the same page, but it goes into wait-for-data mode each time I try to see the last 15 min or so.�
Jun 3, 2014
Maknyuzz Keep in mind.. Elon Musk holds multi-position at Tesla: CEO, Chief Product Architect, and Chairman.
I would like to know IF after volume production of Gen III he is burned out being a CEO of 2 companies, will he still be Chief Product Architect at Tesla?
He mentioned after Gen III, making a Truck is a possibility, he also mentioned Roadster refresh in ~5 years. I would be surprised if he doesn't want to get involved with Roadster V2 or Truck vehicle development.�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan Once he relinquishes his Tesla CEO position, five or six or more years from now, my guess is that he will retain a title and a position that will still allow him to formally exercise significant influence over the company but will require much less of his time.
But he did not speak to that issue today, and no one raised it. It is premature in any case.�
Jun 3, 2014
dsm363 Someone he trusts running the day to day would be great in the future. Allow him to focus on bigger picture items.�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO I don't think Elon thinks it's the whole mass market. There was a question about cheaper cars in the future, and I think Tesla know the Gen 3 will be a "premium" price range, which is why it's been compared to the 3 series rather than a camry. Realistically, though, in terms of total cost of ownership, an EV will be cheaper, which Elon was keen to mention - but consumers tend to care a lot more about initial price than they do about running costs. I think hopefully Tesla will be able to lease Gen 3s, too, which helps to get those people in the door.
As for whether Tesla will be able to beat 35k, I doubt it. Remember they said 50k all along for the Model S, which was technically true because of incentives, but then they eventually axed the model which made the S 50k before shipping it. It would be a big mistake to do that again with the Gen 3.
I think Tesla will aim at $35k, will be very close to it (either 34,900 or 35,999 "but the first two numbers are 35, so it sort of counts..."), or if incentives get extended, Tesla might even end up above 35k but under it post-incentive (like pricing it at 37.5 or something, then having it be 30k after incentive). Keep in mind that the CLA and 3 series are aggressively driving prices down in the premium/entry-level luxury segment because they see the competition coming in the future from Gen 3/Korea/more technologically advanced compacts, and want to get out in front of it.
It's going to take everything they've got to make a fantastic car, which is quick, has the range Tesla has decided is reasonable, and looks nice, and has some but not all of the cool features which the Model S and many other premium compact cars will have by then, while still driving costs down. I also wouldn't be surprised if the range on the base model is "200 miles", aka 184 or something on the EPA test.�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO I'm with you on this, Rhino. Show everyone how to make the packs, then charge them if they want to get onto the supercharger network. And sell them cells from your gigafactory(ies). Ta dah, Tesla is now an energy/battery/whatever supply company and not just an automaker (which we've all thought was the eventual trajectory for a while, and which executives have been lending a little more credence to lately).
- - - Updated - - -
So, I lost connectivity too, and was sort of hoping it would show back up in the replay which is up now, but it cuts off at the same time. I'm wondering if he said anything about Roadster refresh after the 5 year comment? Can anyone who was there chime in?�
Jun 3, 2014
anticitizen13.7 The image aspect ratio appears to be a bit off: stretched horizontally. That's what makes the vehicle appear longer. I noticed that the pictures of the Model S in the presentation are likewise a bit stretched out.
I don't know... I think that shareholder was serious when he asked for a Vice Chair appointment. Elon seemed to stumble around a bit looking for an answer to the question, but that's a difficult situation to handle gracefully. Obviously, Elon can't just appoint new board members at will.
Although it's pretty flattering that people want to work for Tesla, I wish that shareholders would agree not to ask for jobs or positions within the company during a shareholder meeting, because it's not the right forum for a job application.
I think that as an alternative, people who want to play a part in Tesla's success can take leadership roles in local electric car/alternative energy clubs, or start companies that make complementary products. This forum, as well as last year's Teslive conference, are hugely important to Tesla, but are not run by the company itself. I also remember that someone started a Tesla Accessories company. If Tesla opens up the Model S software for 3rd party apps, I think there will be a huge market for software devs.
On a different note, I'm curious as to the nature of the Roadster upgrade.
My hope is Supercharger compatibility :biggrin:�
Jun 3, 2014
aznt1217 I couldn't believe that question. I wonder if he had a learning disability or was just trolling. Either way, good conference but such a waste of questions from a lot of the people there.�
Jun 3, 2014
FANGO Based on previous comments of Elon saying it's not possible (I know, it could still be...but would require a reengineering of the whole charging system, since S charge inverter uses a different method than the Roadster PEM), I'm hoping for a lighter battery. And that they'll give good credits for used batteries with high CAC...so the upgrade ends up not being that expensive (under 10k?), and the car is much lighter, thus handles better, faster, more efficient, etc. with about the same range.�
Jun 3, 2014
mpbruin108 Met Elon and saw this outside Tesla Shareholder meeting
I saw this Model S P85 with a badging I have never seen before. Is this what the new P85 badging look like now? And I got to shake Elon's hand on the way out of the meeting. That was awesome! I wish I got a selfie with him but oh well.
You know what was crazy at the Shareholder's meeting. There was a kid that was 11 years old that had Tesla stock asking Elon questions. There was also this 20 year old "day trader" who made so much money off of day trading that he got a reservation for a P85 fully loaded. Lastly, there was this guy who asked Elon (seriously but I thought he was joking) to become part of Tesla's board of directors. After he stood there a few moments and kept on asking to get hired and Elon looking perplexed on what to say to this guy in front of the world, the moderators took him away from the mic. Interesting meeting to say the least.
�
Jun 3, 2014
meloccom That's Steve Jurvetsons' Signature number 1.
I think that was an early prototype of the version badge that they did not go with in the end.�
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét