Thứ Bảy, 24 tháng 12, 2016

Model X reveal impact on TSLA part 2

  • Sep 13, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    When you've assumed the Model X would be utterly awesome, and the result isn't a significant step up from the Model S, that's reason to correct the positioning. I still have like 90% of my stock, so it's not as if I'm panicing.

    Most car reviews that I read here in Norway covers how much space there is for cargo and what solutions for folding and such there are. Especially if something is unusual, it will be mentioned. I am 99% sure non-folding 2nd row would be mentioned in every review here.

    For instance, the first review I could find of similar cars: Google Oversetter

    "Space and practical utility is still in focus at Volvo. With all seats in use the trunk fits 314 liters, which increases to 692 liters with five seats in use and to 1868 liters with only front seats occupied."

    "Reduced external dimensions notwithstanding, it has become even more spacious on the inside. The trunk is now accomodating from 295-, 770- or up to 1995 liters. Depending on whether you have seven, five or two seats in use. Access to the 3rd row of seats is astonishingly good in that the second row tilts all the way. By the way, the 3rd row folding is operated electrically. Fancy!"
    �
  • Sep 13, 2015
    sub
    Seems like I've unintentionally touched some nerves here, wasn't my intention. Of course people have the choice to cancel their order, and there will be some that do IF the seat issue concerns turn out to be real. My point was I don't see it becoming a large number of people because most, though maybe less than 100% satisfied, are willing to look past the issue because it's Tesla and the bigger picture. I"M NOT JUDGING YOU IF YOU DECIDE TO DO PASS BECAUSE OF THE SEAT. I know Tesla hasn't been perfect, I've been on these forums daily for a long time. I've been very close on a couple of occasions to purchasing a Model S myself, it hasn't been easy holding off. Maybe I'm just hoping others are like me and are ok dealing with Tesla growing pains in order to help EV's move forward.

    As we have seen lately, product announcements have moved the stock very little to not at all. If there are orders cancelled, the next person in line will gladly step into that order slot. What will move the stock is the financials. I do not see Tesla being demand constrained on the X at least through next year so a small percentage of people dropping out due to the seat is of no concern. I'm hoping Tesla exceeds everyone's expectations and we can move on from talking about seats.

    I do believe Tesla has held back as much info as possible on the X in order to keep order flow up as high as possible on the S, I've been saying this for months. What better way to keep orders up on the S then to leave in question if the X actually has more functionality with cargo space/seating.
    �
  • Sep 13, 2015
    MitchJi
    http://learnbonds.com/123273/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-model-x-pre-orders-soar-buyers-wait-for-design-studio-updated/
    �
  • Sep 14, 2015
    30seconds
    I'm so confused that some are worried that Tesla can't design a folding 2nd row. Even if they don't have it now, and it becomes an issue for demand, I am fairly confident that this is not a major hurdle to fix. This is the company that stuck a titanium shield on the underside when it became warranted, and upgraded the seats in the Model S, and put on parking sensors, and added AWD, and....
    �
  • Sep 15, 2015
    SebastianR
    Thanks for that. I could not have said it better.
    �
  • Sep 15, 2015
    32no
    Also, it's highly unlikely that it will become an issue for demand because based on the renderings, the space in the Model X will be quite cavernous. And if people are worried about bikes, skis, and snowboards, those can all be secured onto a bike rack or ski rack instead of putting wet and dirty objects in your $80k+ car. Honestly, sometimes some folks on TMC are a bit whiny, and the reactions to the Model X are a prime example.
    �
  • Sep 15, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    The new information provided to us today by Nigel shows that (1) the 2nd row slides forward and tilts and (2) states that the frunk can accommodate 2 golf bags.

    While the 2nd row setup is not optimal, it's not a disaster either. In the near term, I believe that Tesla will still be able to sell all Model X they can produce, with little impact on TSLA.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    SBenson
  • Sep 17, 2015
    30seconds
    I'm starting to worry that tesla will not be able to deliver 50-55k vehicles this year, probably due to slower than expected ramp of the X. to me not having a launch event means that the company is trying to stay low-key and reduce near-term demand for the X vs. the S.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Newb
    same here. It looks like they're either not 100% ready to produce the very final version of the X (except for the Founder's experimental cars which will be delivered end of September), or they were dissatisfied with the solution provided by the supplier (Johnson C.?) and are still waiting for the alternative solution to be ready for mass-production. It might well be that they had to ask for a redesign of the 2nd row seat solution more than once and then they were unlucky with the specific supplier, too, and had to go back to the less satisfying solution, in order to stay on track for Q4 deliveries. And now they might contemplate waiting another month or so for a completely new 2nd row seat solution to be ready for the Signature cars production after the negative feedback on this less satisfying solution we've seen mirroring on the X subforums. Remember that Elon doesn't care about share price that much but rather cares about perfect products and satisfied customers (which I like despite being the shareholder and not the customer (yet)).

    Just want to remind ourselves about what Elon said during Q2 earnings call (which was only six weeks ago, btw!):

    "I don't want to sort of name specific suppliers, but our biggest challenges are with the second row seat, which is, it's an amazing seat, like a sculptural work of art, but a very tricky thing to get right. The falcon-wing door actually seems to probably not be a critical path item. There are some interior components, interior trim that are possibly on a critical path. But it's always hard to say exactly what lies in a critical path because it tends - these things tend to play schedule leapfrog and it's kind of a set of constraints that one day is this constraint, then the next day it's another constraint. The pace of progress is really dependent on which supplier is the slowest and least lucky. So, if a supplier has unexpected challenges which can range from force majeure to simply having to redo a design because the initial design was wrong. [...]"

    The more I read in the X subforums, the more I think they still haven't solved the second row seat challenge and that will impact on X production ramp this year more than I hoped it would.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    austinEV
    I think it is very likely they will miss their target. They did last year too and the world didn't end. I think this is another example of Elon setting a public goal for the factory and it is their job to get as close as possible, rather than Elon sandbagging with an achievable goal. Clearly slightly delayed revenue is not the issue, but what the market will think of the miss.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    eloder
    I imagine the miss is already priced in, unless you're talking about going sub-50k. If they do hit on the low end of 50k, there will still be a drop but I doubt a substantial one. I think people will be more concerned if revenue/margins/etc. are lower than expected as well as short-term forecasts for Q1 2016.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    I don't think a miss is priced in right now, because my news feeds have been overflowing with BEV competitor news about vaporware from Audi and Porsche. The media is preoccupied with so-called "Tesla killers", and I see no indication that the mainstream has picked up on possible trouble in the Model X launch and ramp up for Q4 of this year.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    TSLAopt


    This is the thing, Elon has stated in the past that they are anti-selling the model X. They have so many orders of the model X They don't want to do anything that would encourage a faster rate of reservations they already are getting until their production is ramped.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Skotty
    Well, if there is one good thing about the whole 2nd row not folding flat thing, it's that people aren't currently complaining about cup holders. LOL
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    For those not watching the Model X forum closely, there were some developments today in this thread: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/53500-New-renderings-of-storage-space-and-2nd-row-seats%21-%289-15%29/page53

    Forum member AnOutsider received a call from Tesla asking for a decision on finalization:

    TMC does have a comprehensive estimate tally on reservations: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/7535-Model-X-Tally/page158

    As of last week (ending 9/11/2015), the tally for Signature Series was as follows:

    USA: 1,356 units
    Canada: 71 units
    EU: 592 units
    Total: 2,019 units

    If the information AnOutsider received is accurate, this places a high probability ceiling on the number of Model X that will be delivered in 2015, and that ceiling is about 2k units.

    In 1H 2015, Tesla delivered approximately 21,500 Model S.

    The Q3 2015 delivery figures are going to be an important indicator of the ramp up on the new Line 2. We are going to need to see a significant jump in production and delivery to meet 50k guidance. 55k looks to be a real challenge.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    drinkerofkoolaid
    100% a guess.

    Based on comments from reservation holders, and the comments from a number of people who have taken the Model X for a test drive, many Signature reservation holders have already been shown the final specifications for the Model X, or were offered the opportunity to see it, and many have probably been offered the opportunity to take it for a test drive. Those who have seen it, or who know the final specifications, were obligated to sign a non disclosure agreement.

    If Tesla lowers guidance for Model X deliveries in 2015, Tesla will significantly increase guidance for 2016.

    The total addressable market for the Model X is significantly larger than the total addressable market for the Model S.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    Lump
    Complete opposite of what I am seeing in TMC.

    Zero Model X test drives & from what I am seeing many early Sig X holders aren't very happy with the info that they have been provided, some have canceled & some are on hold.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    Cosmacelf
    Even founders aren't going to get to drive a Model X until September 29, let alone Signature holders. Personally, I don't think Tesla will deliver more than 1,000 Model X this year. The 50,000 yearly total number is very much in jeopardy. Tesla has been accumulating lots of bad will with this drip drip of sometimes conflicting information and not addressing the lack of foldable second row seats. Why is Elon doing this, other than being an ass? I suspect the answer has to do with things not being nearly ready enough in Model X land.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    Comments from Signature Series reservation holders in the Model X forum suggest that this is not the case. Bonnie (Reservation #2) has as far as I know not received any information on the interior cargo dimensions of Model X. AnOutsider was asked today to either confirm, delay, or cancel, even though Tesla offered no additional information about the vehicle. Nigel asked Tesla to put his reservation on hold, pending availability of additional specifications.

    I've been monitoring activity pretty closely via Tapatalk over the past week. The collective sentiment is "fog", as in confusion and unable to see.


    I start with these premises:
    (1) Elon and Tesla are well intentioned
    (2) Tesla has interest in maintaining Model S demand until Model X can ramp up
    (3) Tesla and SpaceX are time consuming
    (4) Shareholders demand results
    (5) Model 3 needs to be the new priority

    My suspicion is that Elon has been overloaded. On the Tesla end, building Line 2 and continuing Gigafactory construction has kept the company busy. Meanwhile, Model X has had last-minute supplier problems (I believe the gist of what "Eds" wrote about suppliers is generally true, even if the specifics of his claims were incorrect). On the SpaceX end, Elon has had to deal with the fallout from the Falcon 9 accident (bad struts from a supplier... ironically), Dragon2 manned capsule development, and Falcon Heavy development.

    With Model X nearly 2 years late, shareholders are demanding results, and Tesla promised a Q3 delivery, so they are rushing to make it happen. Plus Tesla needs to clear the decks so that full effort can be made on getting Model 3 to market.

    Elon may be the real-life Tony Stark, but no human has infinite resources. People get tired when they have too much to do. Decision making becomes impaired when people are tired.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    bonnie
    Just an fyi: As of today, Model X Signature #2 is configured, confirmed, and not on hold. And I'm looking forward to taking delivery.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    drinkerofkoolaid
    Screen Shot - Test Drive.png

    - - - Updated - - -

    +1 Thank you for clarifying! Bonnie, are you able to comment on the specifications of the Model X?
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    eloder

    There's no conspiracy theory.

    There are zero, count them a mighty zero current production SUV/CUV models out there that both A) Fold, and B) Have seatbelts attached to the seats themselves, according to some folk who have done the research on the MX subforum.

    It stands to reason that safety is a big reason behind non-folding seats, but it's very doubtful that focus groups and design groups found a folding seat solution ideal anyways. Folding seats means seat belts stretching across, back to the third row of seats (defeats the purpose of having amazingly easy entry/exit with falcon wing doors). Folding seats means the 2nd row would likely be a standard bench and not independently movable. It's a lot more doubtful that fully ventilated cooled seats could exist in folding seats.

    Engineers are not out to get you. They're not sitting in a room, laughing and giving each other high-fives because they succeeded in making Cosmacelf mad by not including a common feature in their car.

    Even if people defer or cancel, Tesla has a huge reservation list waiting to pick up the slack. I imagine details about the car will come in full shortly after the 29th, the seat issue will pass without much of a thought from both shareholder and customer perspectives.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    drinkerofkoolaid
    Eds content being removed might have happened for a number of reasons:

    1) Eds is a Tesla employee. Tesla employees aren't supposed to comment on here, without permission.
    2) Eds is a former Tesla employee, who was fired, and was posting nonsense to try and hurt Tesla.
    3) The information Eds said was true. A lot of time has past since it was posted and its very possible Elon, and the folks at Tesla, have fixed Eds made those posts.
    4) If Nima Kalbasi is Eds, Tesla has made a statement about the content he posted online.

    Regarding your assertion about Elon's ability to make good decisions:


    Decision making becomes impaired when people are tired? Oh really? This is a fairly strange, and baseless thing to say.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    Lump
    No where in your screen shot does it indicate that Herb drove a MX, you said a number of people have taken MX test drives & so far not provided proof, your post was inaccurate & I wasn't the only one to point that out!

    You really think a MX has been at the Hyatt in Calgary for some time & no one took pictures or video of it? The whole world has been dying to see this top secrete vehicle & Herb got a nice little test drive...makes a lot of sense to me.

    Accusing me of being negative on the release is lame & false!
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    AlMc
    Congratulations Bonnie.........I hope you and your four legged friends enjoy it.



    @drinkerofthekoolaid: Thanks for removing the comment about Lump. He shares all news that affects TSLA/TM I have found. That sometimes includes news that might impact TSLA negatively and I appreciate it as it helps me make informed investment decisions.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    drinkerofkoolaid
    There have been a number of posts by people who mentioned they have taken the Model X for a test drive. I have seen many picture on Twitter of people test riving the Model X. I don't have time to dig up. If you don't believe me, I really don't care. I have better things to do with my Friday night then spending an hour digging through hundreds of Tweets and posts to satisfy someone who wouldn't change their mind even if I posted them..

    You must have been hitting the refresh button continuously to see who would respond to your comment. I removed the part about you about 1-2 seconds after posting it, as a courtesy. I think almost everyone on here would agree that you are being very negative and are extremely skeptical about Tesla's ability to bring the Model X to market in a way that will keep customers and investors happy.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    AlMc
    This is news to me as well. I will do some searching as well. I would appreciate, as I am sure others would, if you do take some time, when possible, to share some of those posts/tweets.

    Thanks
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    DaveT
    I created a poll, When will Bonnie get her Model X?
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    DougH
    I wonder if this is why Jerome left his current position and moved to Engineering, to create folding rear seats LMAO.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    Lump
    This is totally uncalled for, you must have me confused with someone else since your confused with MX test drives as well.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    TEG
    Were you saying that Elon is not overly tired, or that tired people make perfectly good decisions?
    I think it is well established that lack of sleep can cause decision making issues...
    Sleep-Deprived People Make Risky Decisions Based on Too Much Optimism - Duke Medicine

    Anyways, this debate seems off topic, and perhaps just bating people to respond. So, I may regret responding at all.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    Krugerrand
    You don't have a car yet, do you? :wink:
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    TEG
  • Sep 19, 2015
    Spidy
    "One of these" probably just refers to a Tesla car. 140 characters often don't allow you to be very accurate if you want to write something that resembles a actual sentence.
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    Congrats! Look forward to hearing your impressions of the Model X when you take delivery.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    dmckinstry
    Great. It'd be nice if you could take delivery with the founders.
    �
  • Sep 21, 2015
    SBenson
  • Sep 21, 2015
    Newb
    I'm really glad they decided to make this launch event happen. This "29th non-event" issue made me worry about potential FUDsters who'd take the bait in an instant to talk TSLA down. Now, there's still potential for FUD if the final Model X is not impressive in some way but given the new eyes (and potentially new nose, too) this is less likely, now. I hope this 2nd row seat issue will be forgotten by the end of the month.
    �
  • Sep 21, 2015
    SBenson
    I am a lot more positive now than before. Having an official launch event means that the car is ready (otherwise, I wasn't so sure).
    �
  • Sep 23, 2015
    VolkerP
    Whenever I pop my head into a Model X thread - well any Model X thread - it is about 2nd row folding flat. Sheesh, people. :cursing:
    �
  • Sep 23, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    But seriously, has there ever been a more important issue?
    �
  • Sep 23, 2015
    RobStark

    Didn't you here 25% of X reservation holders will cancel if seat does not fold perfectly flat?
    �
  • Sep 23, 2015
    dmckinstry
    Isn't that a good thing? There will be a big list of new X purchasers who will get their Model X sooner. Those that have been holding off until the reveal to order will be quite happy.
    �
  • Sep 23, 2015
    sub
    The second row seat hysteria seems to be calming down a bit, maybe it was the mocking by other forum members are those that were up in arms realizing it's a seat.
    �
  • Sep 23, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    I think the hysteria has burnt itself out in part, because there's only so much speculation that can be done based on the limited available information.

    Also, the announcement of the full reveal event on the night of the 29th means that we (TMC collectively) know that Tesla will definitively answer our questions on the 29th. I personally don't feel the need to speculate more now, because I know that there's now a definite conclusion point to all the wrangling. It's just a matter of patience now, and in the meantime, the iPhone 6S launch is providing plenty of side entertainment.

    I suspect that others may feel similarly.
    �
  • Sep 23, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Agree. If the reveal shows that the trunk only has 65" of space, the seats don't do anything special like rotate and there are no plans for any other seats anytime soon, we will start to see cancellations. And then the forum will decend into madness.
    �
  • Sep 23, 2015
    larmor
    The thread may go out of control, but IMHO, the MX was designed for the task of taking people around, and likely in the safest way possible. From what was learned from the MS, for the general population, and for convincing our better halves to drop 100k+ on a car, safety is the utmost concern. If the seats fold or don't fold, not sure if that matters as much to the public as does safety or potential safety.

    SUV purchases were, at one time, driven by the perceived safety advantages.
    �
  • Sep 27, 2015
    Julian Cox
    FWIW it looks to me that the 2nd row will pull forwards and rotate all the way backwards on a hydraulic in the stalk, coming to rest with the back horizontal with the upholstery facing upwards. Probably the upholstery is protected by the third row folding forwards. The base of the second row is shaped in a way that seems to match to the rear of the first row in that position. Looking at the electrical control on the side of the seat I think this is highly likely. If it did not provide a reclining function it would have made more sense to put a bar to push backwards or forwards rather than a representation of the entire seat that invites the action of turning it. I think if this is the case, as seems likely to me at least, and therefore a big deal for reveal day because it is actually really cool, then Tesla staff will have been under orders to give no hint of it under questioning on pain of stealing Elon's thunder.
    Model_X_Interior.jpg


    It is obviously a combination of exciting times and irritating times for people that have waited a very long time for the first cars - both reactions understandable. Not to be confused with regards the stock reaction considering that numerically very few people are actually in either of those positions as a proportion of the investor base. From a more birds eye view, product wise, the seats are going to be one of a number of features, some not yet discussed. Personally I am interested in shock and awe with things like SUV class leading wading depth and hill climb angle that will likely demolish anything that has ever gone before it. Fundamentals wise there are a lot of reservation holders that would be only too delighted to move up in line even if every irritated Sig holder ups and leaves instead of the more probable reaction of OMG standing ovation. Either way the company is very much in control here. The one nervy thing for short term traders is that general config is not yet open (as far as I know), I am a sedan guy regardless. The lack of general config can be taken in one of two ways. 1. The company is so confident of a gold rush upon opening general configuration (and the public-facing design studio) that they can prioritize the big reveal above any and all other consideration. 2. They are further behind schedule than even the revised 50-55K units previously guided for end of year expectations.

    If I was going to guess, I think they will make the end of year numbers primarily on Model S regardless, Model X may be incrementally behind but they will scoop the automotive and general media world with the X and cap it with a few insane rocket landings. The upgraded engine on the F9 should allow it to manage a controlled hovering descent on one engine more like the grasshopper rather than behaving like a dart hitting a dart board. I think the mood across Musk industries for the remainder of the year will be upbeat like a rerun of 2013. For those that remember, the market did not enjoy the big spend before the Model S launch either, but it definitely made up for it afterwards.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    Julian, stop making sense, please!

    Now back to our regular programming, the season premiere of Foldgate.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    JRP3
    My guess is that Tesla did extensive research that determined just moving the seats forward up against the front seats was good enough for 95% of potential buyers, and that having the seats move in that way to allow easy 3rd row access was more important to those buyers.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    My guess is that Tesla did extensive research of their cash flow that determined that they really needed to get the X released and that moving the seats forward up against the front seats was good enough for enough of the potential buyers that it stop the bleeding while they sorted out the really nifty flat-folding seats.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    Trev Page
    Perhaps but they just added the option to have seating for 6 instead of 7 by removing the middle second row seat. New pictures from the design centre show the second row seats moved all the way forward as well as tipping forward or moving forward and down, this is not clear yet. Keep in mind, all of of the options for Model X Signature series show the fancy second row seats as standard. What we don't know at this time is if general production seats will be the same or fold flat. Knowing Tesla my guess is that all Model X production cars will have the same seats. Pure and simple. Over time that might change given how many changes they've made to Model S over the years.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    JRP3
    Except that simple flat folding seats copied from other SUV designs would have been easier and cheaper than the powered seats that move forward on pedestals.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    Julian Cox
    My guess is that they did extensive research of their business objectives and decided that it made sense to do an uncompromising job of the Model X even it required digging deep into cash flows to do it because the most solid foundation for massive compound growth is reinvestment in superlative excellence in R&D that is evident the product. That way you get to bank and multiply 20+ thousand reservations and get to concentrate on the Gigafactory and R&D for Model 3 without having to revisit Model X as a job half done and a bunch of problems to manage.

    Are the moderators on holiday? The forum for the disaffected shorts is at Stock Market Insights | Seeking Alpha
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    Julian Cox
    The seats don't just move forwards they also tilt forwards. You don't need that cut out at the front of the pedestal to tilt the seat forwards. That cutout is needed to extend a hydraulic arm when tilting the seat backwards all the way flat. Either that or Musk has had a personality transplant and now all they care about is cash flow statements on quarterly reports.

    What I think is a shame is to see the mood here affected by the miserable bears. It is abundantly obvious that a company with one product (Model S) that is prepping manufacturing capacity and global sales service and charging support to double the vehicle product line and launch two additional product lines in fixed storage is going to be spending cash in advance of the commencement of sales.

    Naturally people that have lost their shirts shorting Tesla - like Mark Spiegel or Anton Wahlman for example (if those guys are even for real considering if what they says is true they ought to have been insolvent long ago), guys like this are going to try to paint the picture that pre-launch cash flows are the real deal and a solid future trend and post launch cash flows don't exist anywhere in time or space.

    Back in reality, Tesla is transitioning from having one very successful product that has met all of the business plan goals to date for Model X and Model S sales combined (see 2012 shareholders meeting) - to borrow an ICE analogy, going before the end of this year from firing on one cylinder to firing on three cylinders. Tesla Model S. Tesla Model X. Tesla Energy. That's a HUGE deal. It is not just three times as good as just selling Model S, it is the transformation of Model X and Tesla Energy from cash flow negative loss centers that Model S is struggling to pay for, to doing a complete 180 and adding TWO additional cash flow positive profit centers alongside Model S.

    Just to depict profit and cost centers of the business pre and post sales launch of X and TE.

    Pre Launch: Model S - Model X - Tesla Energy = -1
    Post Lauch: Model S + Model X + Tesla Energy = +3

    Something to think about.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    Krugerrand
    This makes sense given that Tesla has 'consolidated/reduced' options several times for ease, economics and expediting.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Tesla has said repeatedly to several Signature reservation holders that the seats don't rotate or form a flat floor in any way. I'm not sure I prefer Tesla lying to Tesla not having a flat platform for cargo in the Model X. (Okay, maybe I do - if they lie, that'll be forgotten in three months, but impractical seats can affect the reception of the Model X. But still, that's pretty bad.)

    As a Model X reservation holder and Tesla investor with about 60% of my portfolio in TSLA (and 30-35% of my net worth), I seriously hope that Tesla has something up their sleeve regarding the 2nd row seats. But all the evidence points to there not being some magic trick involved. I am fairly sure Tesla's immediate response to foldgate is the 6 seat configuration. And while they may be working on foldable 2nd row bench seats or an upgraded 2 seat second row configuration ("captains' chairs" or 2nd row center console), I doubt we will see any information about this tomorrow.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    Also in the category of what Tesla has said repeatedly to several Sig holders: no reveal event on the 29th.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    Bgarret
    Nice to see you back Julian...
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    JRP3
    Not at all. The seat pedestal is angled towards the rear in normal seating position. As the seat is moved forward the pedestal makes an arc as it goes through vertical and past it, which tips the seat forward. I'm quite sure you are over complicating the design and projecting things that aren't there.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    Regular doors would have been far simpler than falcon wing doors, but the X will have falcon wing doors.

    Tesla said that the seats would fold flat and early buyers have been told that, no, they won't.
    Early buyers are also being asked to confirm purchases and Tesla staff can't answer basic questions.
    All of this has followed a series of 1 to 2 months of delays per quarter, Tesla borrowing money against inventory and finally needing a cash raise before the X release to hedge against production problems.

    All of that doesn't mean that there won't be fold flat options in the future. Julian is right in that Tesla's approach has been for Elon Musk to insist on _trying_ to make something exceptional, but the Tesla pattern is consistent: suffer product delays, burn extra cash, sell with options missing because they can't wait any longer, release options later.

    I expect the reveal impact on TSLA to be negative, with possible neutral because people _always_ get excited before any Tesla event, the media reaches a crescendo with ridiculously optimistic ideas, and count of articles referring to Trip Chowdhry's bullish(it) fabrications goes up. Then the event happens and TSLA drops. In this case, it's possible that the reveal of real information about the X, including some features "coming soon" will instantiate the X and give people enough confidence to hold the price. But in the cold light of day, I think that people will be relieved instead of excited and TSLA will fall back, until Tesla is able to ramp production.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    Bgarret
    I would tend to agree in general with speculation exceeding reality for typical events....but is that true for tomorrow's Model X event? The most consistent message I find in the media is that the launch is "important" with little or no discussion of features or details....or much excitement. The mood on TMC is significantly worse, with speculation that seat designs could lead to rampant cancellations and significant gloom related to Model X as a deliverable and Tesla's ability to ramp production. Nothing from analysts. The stock price has dropped from a high on September 21st after the invites went out of 271.57 to a low of 249 interday today....not much of a run up pre-announcement (although some of that may be Macro). Elon usually pre-announces Tesla events with Hyperbole - "End of Range Anxiety". "Missing Piece to Building a Sustainable Future". There hasn't even been a press release.

    If if this is excitement/optimism/crescendo....I'm not seeing it.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    Julian Cox
    You see here's the thing. Tesla Model X is NOT mission critical to Tesla. It was thought to be mission critical initially to make the 20, 35, 50K unit sales ramp called for in the business plan pre-launch of the Model S.

    In the event, Model S did all that without the need for Model X to even exist. Elon therefore has had the luxury of time to do whatever he liked to make the Model X as adventurous and awesome as he pleased and so he took the time. They even waited for the silicon-graphite anode cell to go into production for the 90KWh pack and launched Tesla Energy as an outlet for previous generation cell supply. It is all bear BS to imagine that Tesla is forced to do anything, especially in relation to Model X. Model X was originally supposed to be a simple body shell variant of Model S. By the time Musk was done it turned out to have a 30% parts commonality. Why? Because they did not need to rush Model X to make sales numbers from the Model S skateboard. They hit the objectives of the business plan without it.

    Hence the whole thing is a bonus - a free spin of the Elon Musk roulette wheel, you know the one where Musk goes all in on lucky number 7 and there just happens to be a neodymium magnet under number 7.

    What Model X means for the business is that the $2.3 billion they raised for the Gigafactory gets cycled through Model X and comes out worth $5 or $6 billion. Which is really kinda cool, I like the idea of Tesla having a greater % ownership in Nevada.

    From what I am seeing around here, what we have going in to the Model X unveiling is not a ridiculously optimistic picture, it is a ridiculously pessimistic picture.

    Sometimes Musk says this, sometimes Musk says that sometimes he says that the Model X is a phenomenal vehicle and a better SUV than the Model S was a better sedan.

    Who here seriously imagines that Musk is going to unveil a phenomenal SUV with second row seats as a work of art that don't fold flat and with a recline control clearly visible on the side that does not work???? Because if there is an opposite of Kool Aide who ever you are, stop, you're drunk on the stuff - which is exactly where the shorts need to be. You know the ones that pay the bills every single time things go exactly in accordance with a rational and pragmatic view of this business.

    TSLA @ $248 ($40+ off the ATH) when a phenomenal SUV's second row seats are supposedly unable to offer the functionality of a standard SUV. Looks like it might contain a little bit of upside surprise not just to the shorts but apparently to a number of Longs too. Just a thought.

    BTW - if Musk reconfirms confidence in end of year numbers in addition to quashing silly non functioning seat rumors, there is $30 of upside by end of play Thursday.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    RobStark

    That would be


    haterade_by_metalmaster2004.jpg
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    I don't consider that comparable. It's one thing to give wrong information about a free event which Signature reservation holders might be invited to if Tesla feels like it. It's another thing to give wrong information about a product that the buyers have put down a $40,000 deposit on and are paying $132,000+ for. Especially as many Signature reservation holders have been forced to confirm before the launch or lose their place in the line. If I ordered a car in this price range and put down a massive deposit, and set the wheels in motion with regards to charging options, insurance, financing, etc, only to find out later that the information provided was false, the probability that I would be angry would be high. (Even if I got a full refund.)

    Of course, if the delivered product is superior to the ordered product, that's fine, but "superior" is relative. Tesla had better be damn sure that they and the buyer have the same view of "superior". One example: Some signature buyers have ordered a car with 3 individually moving seats in the second row. Now Tesla is saying that the 2nd row seats in the 3-seat configuration don't move individually. I can easily see that people might be upset that this feature suddenly disappeared from the product they ordered. I know I would.

    The control is one solid piece, which indicates that the seat back can't individually move. The control is most likely back/forth as well as tilt forward/backwards. This is needed to move the seats forward like this:

    tr5olqe.png
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    I don't think the picture is unreasonably pessimistic from the standpoint of Model X reservation holders. Model X is 2 years late, company communication on features has been downright terrible, and I think customers are perfectly justified in being pissed off. My expectation is that all of this will be forgiven if, in around 24 hours from now, Tesla reveals a Model X that is shockingly great. If there are surprises that justify the 2 year delay, the negativity will evaporate.

    As far as impact on TSLA, it is all about guidance for the remainder of the year. Going to a new production line and adding the complexity of a second product (with only 30% parts commonality with the existing Model S) is a significant challenge.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    eloder
    No different than what Apple said about iPhone 6s battery life pre-launch, and it doesn't look like Apple is catastrophically crashing.

    I know people always come back with "But it's a $130k car!". Someone who can afford to plunk down a $40k interest-free deposit for three years on a $130k+ car is certainly not hurting for cash, and likely is spending far less, relatively speaking, than your average joe-schmoe with negative net worth plunking down $700-800+ on an iPhone 6s loan. As we always say at my employer, "Don't pretend to best know how to spend other people's money."

    Also, Musk doesn't want anyone to know about this neat thing called a deferral. It can let that person who wants to wait until a test drive or all features are known, to wait until they can test drive or know all features before ordering.

    I'm expecting that anything and everything with "seatgate" will blow away. Even the most hardcore of haters will still come back to the MX, because honestly, what competition will they go to that's better? Which other SUV is going to allow you to sit multiple passengers while still retaining tremendously huge storage space? The production frunks look absolutely cavernous, much moreso than the prototypes.

    I'm still not expecting much of a bump for the MX (delivery numbers will be the story of the day, I'm guessing), but I do expect the glowing reviews will help float the price higher as we head toward the prize that is Q1 2016.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    I'm not familiar with the 6s battery life claims, but I don't think this is an euivalent situation. Something more equivalent would be if Apple claimed that the phone had 4G and then it didn't. The battery life doesn't really affect how you can use the phone, you just need to charge it more often. But when the product is lacking specified features, that's much more likely to affect the buying decision.

    The total storage space may be huge, but that doesn't help if the storage space is so inconveniently shaped that you can't utilize it for common tasks. The frunk is nice, sure, but it can be hard to fit half a couch in the frunk and half a couch in the back of the car. I'm certain if the Model X doesn't satisfatorily meet expectations, people won't buy it. As to what else people will buy, some options:

    - Model S + pickup
    - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (folding seats!)
    - Model 3

    My solution would be to continue sitting on the fence until the Model 3 crossover comes along. I don't need a new car immediately.
    I think if the car has sub-par storage capabilities, this will be noted in many/most reviews. Now, ultimately, this doesn't matter for Tesla long term, as they will probably continue to be supply limited through 2016, but it may colour perceptions.
    �
  • Sep 29, 2015
    JRP3
    Model X plus a small trailer for your couch hauling needs? I've used a small 8x5 trailer for years, very handy, allows you to carry longer objects that wouldn't fit in any SUV, and doesn't mess up the interior of the vehicle.
    �
  • Sep 29, 2015
    pGo
  • Sep 29, 2015
    Julian Cox
    For starters the first 100 or so reservation holders, people like Bonnie, that have faced the question of configuring prior to the reveal are the most committed Tesla supporters, they are not the majority of anything (not the majority or even a significant percentage of customers or shareholders) and finally you have no idea what has been said to them in private or under NDA. Most likely they are laughing in their beards at this negativity. A $40,000 deposit for exclusivity to be at the head of a line of 30,000 people that also want what you want is entirely optional. People have been trading places at the head of the line for new Ferrari vehicles forever with nowhere close to 30,000 people interested in buying them.

    As for "a significant challenge" you might want to get in tune with what that means at Tesla. A significant challenge overcome equals a significant value proposition and a significant competitive advantage. If anything they do or have done to date was easy they would have no moat. They have a huge moat.

    Want to know what difficult looks like? Try building a fleet-wide OTA network with deep level access and control of vehicle configuration and service status when NADA members own your customer relationships and have a well established legal claim to the lion's share of your service revenues - you can't even update software without a dealer recall. Pity Google trying to build an AI navigable map with three or four vehicles on the roads versus Tesla with upwards of 50,000 connected vehicles equipped with a full site of sensors monitoring everything from machine vision to accelerometers, GPS and steering angles cumulatively and collaboratively learning how people navigate roads in all conditions day and night the world over. Pity Uber trying to dissolve the cost of gasoline, maintenance, depreciation and drivers versus Tesla - do you really think Musk is going to pat Kalanick on the back and hand him the keys to Tesla's OTA network, charging network and service network to rule AI transportation as a service rather than just cutting him out as a middle man? I think not. Making a hailing and billing app is the easy part and Uber can only dream of having Tesla's AI navigable maps. FYI Musk's new online payment processor Stripe is already being used by Uber competitor Lyft.

    Tesla is dealing with the challenges that actually matter, hating on them is understandable if they are beating a path to threatening your livelihood but very difficult to understand at teslamotorsclub.com
    �
  • Sep 29, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    This is baseless speculation. I believe Bonnie was asked multiple times on this forum if she was under NDA and she has said (1) No and (2) That even her usual contacts at Tesla were very quiet regarding the Model X.


    Being realistic and giving constructive criticism are not hating. I bought my shares a long time ago, and have not sold a single share, which should say something about my opinions.

    I have believed for years that Tesla is at the vanguard of an inflection point in transportation. I also believe that Tesla has the potential to grow to the size of Apple. However, that does not stop me from voicing my concerns about the company.
    �
  • Sep 29, 2015
    Krugerrand
    Bonnie has a beard!?
    �
  • Sep 29, 2015
    Julian Cox

    The NDA specifies that I cannot discuss either beards or disclose that I am under NDA.

    (Should have been beers).
    �
  • Sep 29, 2015
    Krugerrand
    We can talk unicorns, though. Right?

    Ahhhhhhhh.......auto correct.

    BTW, nice to see you back. Staying awhile I hope.

    On topic - I have less than zero idea how the market will react in the near future to the 'reveal' tonight.
    �
  • Sep 29, 2015
    austinEV
    WSJ article tomorrow: "Tesla unveils new SUV; no diesel emission control device. Tesla worse than VW."
    �
  • Sep 29, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    No big surprises in the reveal. Just some new details:

    - HEPA filter
    - New nose design
    - Auto-opening/closing front doors

    The reveal could have been better, there has been a lot of speculation around possible features:

    - Laser lights
    - Adjustable dimming on the wind screen
    - Some magical fold-flat solution for the second row
    - Surround view or rear view mirror/camera
    - Etc.

    That these features weren't revealed could be negative, but I think the reveal is mostly neutral. It's good that delivieries are starting.
    �
  • Sep 29, 2015
    JustinA1
    I'd say this is crazy, yet I've seen clickbait equally disingenuous.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Missed the quote.
    �
  • Sep 30, 2015
    Drax7
    Julian Cox, thanks for your insights, very helpful .
    �
  • Sep 30, 2015
    Gerasimental
    I work in the automotive industry, in drive train development, and people at work today have been talking about the Model X plenty, and by the sound of it most of them had no idea that thee was such a thing as Model X until this morning.
    These are people that develop components for electric drive trains (not only electric, but some), so imagine how clueless the 'general public' is about this. Not sure of the effect on share price, but interesting to me that the number of people that know about Model X today is probably tens if not hundreds of times as high than it was yesterday.
    �
  • Sep 30, 2015
    JRP3
    As I said.
    �
  • Sep 30, 2015
    Quant
    Very interesting ...and surprising given these are industry folks ! Thanks for the info.

    As for the public, things will only change in March 2016, after the Model 3 with an starting price in the mid $30's in unveiled.

    Why ? Because, why spend time on things that are not relevant to you in your daily life.....NOW!

    The masses generally are aware of brand names like Ferrari or Lamborhini but really do not pay attention to new model specs etc of even those brands!

    Tesla does not advertise, and has no dealers or ads in car mags either. So, it's under the radar, and quite new , with really just one model on the roads until yesterday....for people to see !
    �
  • Sep 30, 2015
    austinEV
    That is a good insight. I think a lot of people deliberately block out Tesla news because they know they have no business shopping for one so they just create a blind spot out of pure budgeting prudence. When people ask me about my car, a common reaction I get is along the lines of " oh God, don't tell me its great. Is it great? I sort of hoped you would say it was bad so I would stop wanting one."
    �
  • Sep 30, 2015
    Trev Page
    Cars are not something that people generally get excited about because the technology involved is not like consumer electronics. People buy cars as an means of transport and don't think about them much once they're driven off the lot. Tesla is different due to its EV nature but more importantly because it's seen as a technologically advanced vehicle. We're in the know since we follow them but once a mass market car arrives in volume people will be paying a lot more attention. Things will really heat up once the 1000lb Gorilla that is Apple enters the market. They get all the eyeballs.
    �
  • Sep 30, 2015
    Quant
    Having been online for the full presentation last night, and having thought about stuff quite a bit since, I am very concerned that Model X production ramp will not occur in October. I hope they will be able to crank out at least 3-4 K Model X 's in Nov and Dec.

    I would love to know how serious the issues and bottlenecks are ? The rear seats and/or interior trim sourcing within quality specs, or God forbid assembly line ramp issues ( which I think hopefully not ) ?? Musk will need to be really transparent on the Early November earnings call. Hopefully, by then they will be producing at least a couple of hundred X's a week.
    �
  • Sep 30, 2015
    Julian Cox
    The seats are individually reclining. Looks like not all the way flat but we have not seen a definitive on that. But for the record the pedestal does not make an arc as you said, it is reclining as I said.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Just want to say it, the Model X is absolutely superb. If you can afford it you have two alternatives in an SUV. Cheap out or overpay, either way you are getting lowered performance, worse handling and disregarding occupant safety when compared with the X.

    The presentation was geared towards women drivers and for grown up family guys, nothing wrong with that. I am equally excited to see other side of the story - the stuff they left out for now, specifically: Off road capabilities. Nothing is going to touch this for off road traction and gradient handling and just maybe this thing will ford rivers that would swamp the alternator or sweep away a Jeep or a Ranger Rover, even one equipped with an engine air intake snorkel.

    I just saw the latest Mission Impossible movie. In one scene someone makes the quip to the effect that 'this is a high speed chase and you had to bring a 4x4'.

    Had to laugh but not for the reasons the film makers intended.
    �
  • Sep 30, 2015
    JRP3
    I see no evidence of reclining.

    Fair point.

    Seats that tilt forward a bit are not what I would call reclining.

    That does not seem to be the case.
    �
  • Sep 30, 2015
    Quant
    I could not disagree more ! Not for all people, but for a majority in the last few decades cars ( along with their home) are their biggest consumer purchase. Many people ( at least a third, either enjoy driving their car or get pleasure from driving it. Whether it be a used Camaro in my college days or several Mercedes and BMW 's in the last 20 years I've always loved my cars. Power, performance, handling etc. Even in 1995 the S class had power assist doors and trunks that would pull forward and close automatically . And the power seats and the sound system etc were all great and leading edge for those times. Even now people love many entry level crossover or trucks or even compact sedans for their performance , styling etc whether it was $25 K or more. Heck, I thoroughly enjoyed driving my new Mustang Convertible rental car for a month in Maui recently and it gave me immense pleasure along with the scenery, and the vistas.

    Most people have happiness and joy in their lives ...besides wine, women and song ... I'd say cars have always been in that category for many ! LOL. :) try it sometime !
    �
  • Oct 1, 2015
    eloder
    I'd have to disagree and say you're in the minority.

    Just look at some of the really popular cars out there. Slow trucks, Priuses, Honda Civics are out there as the most popular vehicles. Minivans exist.

    There's certainly a segment that loves cars but they are a minority group.
    �
  • Oct 1, 2015
    Quant
    Well, maybe you are right, but just maybe, some of the Tesla aficionados think they are superior to the masses ? LOL

    Sometimes , people just cannot afford something better !

    You think people drive Honda Civics because they don't want a Tesla , a BMW or a Mustang ?

    Slow trucks ? Maybe they need to haul stuff for a living ?

    Let's recognize financial and practical use constraints in the lives of the general public, or a mother who needs a mini van because she is soccer mom and has to haul a bunch of kids around, shall we ?

    It's your call..... Whatever dude !
    �
  • Oct 1, 2015
    RobStark
    Top 20 Best Selling Cars in America


    ?


    August 2015 � September 2014
    Rank?
    Best-Selling Car?
    September
    2015?
    September
    2014?
    %
    Change?
    		2015
    YTD    		2014
    YTD    		%
    Change
    #1?
    Toyota Camry?
    		34,48728,50721.0%326,330334,978-2.6%
    #2?
    Honda Accord?
    		33,64132,9562.1%264,814304,382-13.0%
    #3?
    Honda Civic?
    		28,27822,26327.0%249,749253,430-1.5%
    #4?
    Toyota Corolla?
    		26,63620,53029.7%278,742258,8057.7%
    #5?
    Ford Fusion?
    		24,94221,69315.0%231,475240,585-3.8%
    #6?
    Nissan Altima?
    		24,22421,67511.8%262,424256,9352.1%
    #7?
    Hyundai Elantra?
    		20,72418,84810.0%193,962176,40310.0%
    #8?
    Nissan Versa?
    		18,05312,07249.5%109,832110,272-0.4%
    #9?
    Chevrolet Malibu?
    		17,06615,18612.4%147,161148,574-1.0%
    #10?
    Hyundai Sonata?
    		16,12414,9188.1%157,680164,934-4.4%
    #11?
    Subaru Outback?
    		15,12611,31533.7%108,41997,26611.5%
    #12?
    Nissan Sentra?
    		14,19612,55713.1%154,270141,2169.2%
    #13?
    Chevrolet Cruze?
    		14,03218,415-23.8%177,970208,114-14.5%
    #14?
    Kia Soul?
    		13,61410,80226.0%112,683115,579-2.5%
    #15?
    Ford Focus?
    		13,43715,397-12.7%163,864176,156-7.0%
    #16?
    Kia Optima?
    		11,71910,9087.4%118,301122,646-3.5%
    #17?
    Chrysler 200?
    		11,36410,9953.4%147,07375,14295.7%
    #18?
    Toyota Prius?
    		10,168833921.9%89,812110,455-18.7%

    Toyota Prius Liftback ^?
    		9952798624.6%85,77898,613-13.0%

    Toyota Prius Plug-In ^?
    		216353-38.8%403411,842-65.9%
    #19?
    Ford Mustang?
    		94563158199%96,22559,83160.8%
    #20?
    Chevrolet Impala?
    		935992251.5%85,466107,162-20.2%

    Top 20 Best Selling SUVs in America

    August 2015 � September 2014
    Rank?
    Best-Selling SUV/Crossover?
    September
    2015?
    September
    2014?
    %
    Change?
    		2015
    YTD    		2014
    YTD    		%
    Change
    #1?
    Honda CR-V?
    		29,92523,72226.1%259,499241,0157.7%
    #2?
    Ford Escape?
    		28,47321,71831.1%233,012230,1621.2%
    #3?
    Toyota RAV4?
    		26,96322,72418.7%227,781202,06912.7%
    #4?
    Nissan Rogue?
    		25,06417,22945.5%213,207154,56837.9%
    #5?
    Chevrolet Equinox?
    		21,53717,26624.7%214,042184,80515.8%
    #6?
    Ford Explorer?
    		20,71515,79531.1%190,171158,65219.9%
    #7?
    Jeep Cherokee?
    		20,22414,63938.2%161,112128,13325.7%
    #8?
    Jeep Wrangler?
    		17,58313,95526.0%157,513134,06817.5%
    #9?
    Jeep Grand Cherokee?
    		15,75812,85422.6%141,849136,3104.1%
    #10?
    Subaru Forester?
    		15,36412,58422.1%129,568117,9409.9%
    #11?
    Toyota Highlander?
    		12,40310,54217.7%116,851105,52610.7%
    #12?
    GMC Terrain?
    		10,935831031.6%83,39579,4445.0%
    #13?
    Hyundai Santa Fe?
    		10,752894520.2%88,40078,90712.0%
    #14?
    Dodge Journey?
    		10,457723044.6%79,39570,68612.3%
    #15?
    Ford Edge?
    		10,262769533.4%95,70986,05111.2%
    #16?
    Honda Pilot?
    		10,238782430.9%98,98080,24723.3%
    #17?
    Kia Sorento?
    		9380660642.0%85,76176,57812.0%
    #18?
    Mazda CX-5?
    		9107809712.5%82,01378,1904.9%
    #19?
    Chevrolet Traverse?
    		8857782113.2%92,96379,56016.8%
    #20?
    Jeep Patriot?
    		85339117-6.4%88,71969,95826.8%

    Minivan Sales in America

    Click Column Headers To Sort � August 2015 � September 2014
    [TH="class: sorttable_alpha"]Minivan[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]September
    2015[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]September
    2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
    Change[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2015
    YTD[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2014
    YTD[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
    Change    [/TH]
    9163?
    		13,029-29.7%61,970108,340-42.8%
    10,568?
    		11,275-6.3%64,219104,071-38.3%
    9924?
    		876913.2%98,83495,4603.5%
    3039?
    		613396%29,8645656428%
    381?
    		535-28.8%775810,021-22.6%
    656?
    		39566.1%76098295-8.3%
    10,489?
    		859222.1%104,53594,93010.1%
    ---?
    		---------1103-100%
    ---?
    ---?
    		---------------
    Total?
    44,220?
    		43,2082.3%374,789427,876-12.4%

    Top 13 Best Selling Trucks in America

    Click Column Headers To Sort � August 2015 � September 2014
    [TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]Rank[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_alpha"]Best-Selling Truck[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]September
    2015[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]September
    2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
    Change[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2015
    YTD[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2014
    YTD[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
    Change[/TH]
    #1
    69,651?
    		59,86316.4%564,451557,0371.3%
    #2
    53,725?
    		50,1767.1%440,904382,15315.4%
    #336,59836,612-0.04%330,643319,8683.4%
    #4
    19,754?
    		16,76317.8%161,653147,2899.8%
    #5
    11,165?
    		11,993-6.9%133,229114,72916.1%
    #6
    8472?
    		8736-3.0%90,05488,8691.3%
    #7
    7334?
    		3620,272%63,23210957,911%
    #8
    4617?
    		6853-32.6%47,26155,363-14.6%
    #9
    2332?
    		1121,100%22,42616140,063%
    #10
    1078?
    		97710.3%95219696-1.8%
    #11
    2?
    		978-99.8%51511,571-95.5%
    #12
    ---?
    		------887-90.8%
    #13
    ---?
    		------250-96.0%
    ---?
    ---?
    		------------------
    ---?
    Total?
    		214,728192,99811.3%1,863,8991,686,83710.5%
    �
  • Oct 1, 2015
    McMuggets
  • Oct 2, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    It can. As long as that sheet of plywood is 60" x 45".

    (I *think* I've read somewhere that an engineer said you could load in one standard sheet of plywood in the six-seat configuration. But I have my doubts.)
    �
  • Oct 2, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    Now that the 'reveal' is behind us, there are some indications of where Model X is going as far as sales.

    I am seeing 2 general categories: (1) People who use their vehicle mostly to transport people. They are keeping their Model X reservation(s). Attendees of the Tuesday night reveal event generally seem to think that the 2nd row of Model X is far more comfortable than the 2nd row of Model S. (2) People who use their vehicle to both transport people and large items for projects. Folks in this category are cancelling, sometimes reluctantly, because they wanted a Model X and wanted to keep supporting Tesla by buying its products.

    There's an interesting discussion going on here: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/54868-Very-Difficult-decision-Canceling-my-Sig-X-reservation

    Other thoughts:

    With an uncertain production ramp and the reservation line so long, even a high rate of cancellations may not affect Tesla's guidance for some time.

    Tesla continually improves its products. While today's Model X doesn't have a folding second row, a Model X in a few months or a year could very well offer that option.
    �
  • Oct 2, 2015
    9837264723849
    At Inside Energy Summit (Solarcity conference), Musk said that "Model X unveil caused a big uptick in orders for Model S".

    Either reservation holders cancelled and switched to the S, or some heard of Tesla and jumped in, or some waited for the reveal to make up their mind.
    �
  • Oct 2, 2015
    Quant
    Hahaha. Nice ! Maybe it's just folks realize it's gonna be a slow ramp and don't wanna wait for a year to get their X.

    Or, maybe ...just maybe, it's a bunch of anticitizens screwing with the Anticitizen! LOL!

    Either way, that's just great ! Good job Elon!

    And, over the course of the next 6-12 months the VW debacle should also help S sales....again good timing on the Netherlands factory!
    �
  • Oct 2, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    This is actually a big relief, because it means that a slow ramp on the Model X can be made up with a lot of new Model S orders. I think this may put to rest the notion that Model S has reached its demand limit. Also, I think the fears of a Model X "Osborne Effect" will subside.
    �
  • Oct 2, 2015
    eloder
    There are plenty of sub-20k cars, or cars near that point, that are tons of fun. Fiats and Fits, for example, are extremely sporty. An electric smart car was the most fun car I've ever driven and I drove a '98 manual transmission Mustang. (My Leaf is still tons of fun and it costs as much as a low-end Prius to lease).

    These aren't the cars that are selling well, though.

    There is definitely a subset that enjoys cars primarily for entertainment, but it's not the majority. Safety, hauling, utility are not sexy but they do sell for cars. Fortunately the MX is one of the only cars that can be an "All of the above" thus my belief it will be a huge boon as long as production can keep up / doesn't run into reliability issues.
    �
  • Oct 3, 2015
    McMuggets
    The Model X is many things that a $30,000 Jeep SUV is not. Sure, use the Jeep to haul furniture and plywood, also drive it off road on rocks. Beat it up, that's what it's there for! Though I'm sure if you want to beat up your $150,000 Model X you could too. Not sure if anyone saw this, but Elon tweeted a lot of stuff to answer many questions about Model X. Including the fact that you can indeed put racks on the roof:

    Tesla Model 3 Or Model Y Will Have Falcon-Wing Doors, Model Xs Recognize Each Other, 7 Other Elon Musk Tweets | CleanTechnica
    �
  • Oct 3, 2015
    gg_got_a_tesla
    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

    Apologies if this has been discussed upthread (this is a huge thread!) but, is there any nervousness at all on the part of relatively-short-horizon investors (I'll admit to being one) regarding the true demand for the X?!

    Threads such as this (thanks, @AIMc! :)) and the experience of and reaction after the X reveal event have me a bit on edge.

    The fact that a smaller battery pack (less than 90) is 12 months away as per Elon surely shrinks the potential market (as we are automatically talking of a $100k+ vehicle config for the next year); some Sig res and early General Production holders were holding out hope for a cheaper vehicle too.

    I'm itching to pull the coals out of TSLA as I see both a macro- and a micro-, Tesla-specific correction ahead, the latter partly caused by potential X problems, on the supply side and even more worryingly, in my opinion, on the demand side. For some more context, I can fit a future Tesla in the value of my current holdings; not confident that that'll be the case for too long.

    All doom and gloom? Needlessly so? Thoughts and opinions from all ye wise ones?!
    �
  • Oct 3, 2015
    Causalien
    Short term I'd rely on TA. But Elon is doing the right thing. In a market where demand outstrip supply, the price should go up. However, the stigma of raising the price will damage the brand so naturally, Elon has to find a guise to raise the price.

    It is easier to adjust the price down to increase demand than the other way around.. So once supply issues gets resolved, we will see the price come donwn under other guises. TSLA is now a cash flow management stock and often it is counterintuitive to popular opinion. However, there is a time a place where popularity can shoot you to fame or bankrupt you.
    �
  • Oct 3, 2015
    JRP3
    I'm less concerned since Elon has said that S and X orders spiked up after the X launch. They know how to crank out the S so I think that should cover any possible shortfall with the X. I still don't know if they will make 50K of course and we would probably get punished with even a small miss.
    �
  • Oct 3, 2015
    Crowded Mind
    Regarding demand for X, one way to look at the lack of a 70 option is as a signal of confidence in demand by Tesla. If they were worried about demand for the 90, they would likely be offering the 70, no? From Elon's tweets yesterday, it sounds like they plan on offering a 75 or 80kwh base pack within the next 12 months, so they are wisely going to limit initial production to the 90 kwh with the confidence that they will be able to generate enough orders to meet production up until that time. They know the ratio of 70s to 85s well enough to be pretty accurate in this prediction, so to me, your question is more of a question on if the X will be close to as popular as the S. If it is, I don't share your concerns. If they're wrong, they could probably react fairly quickly to offer the 70 at a respectable estimated range of 215 miles for $80k.
    �
  • Oct 3, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    Here are my 2 cents...
    I would start from here: The fact that there is no 70D or 75D yet for the X is an extremely positive sign for demand. This is entirely in the hands of Tesla, if they wanted to they could have introduced a smaller battery pack on day 1. The fact that they didn't and don't plan to for another 12(ish) months, means there is enough demand for the X at a 100k base price (presumed for the non-sig 90s) to fill the production lines.

    On the short term, though, their 50k delivery plan is still doable, but a small miss is not entirely out of the question either due to potential ramp issues.
    �
  • Oct 3, 2015
    Quant
    Thanks for this link! From my POV, the biggest thing that came out of these series of tweets is that either the Model 3 or the accompanying Model Y will have gull-wing doors! This will be pretty huge IMO, in March 2016, when these 2 production models are unveiled for the broader market of potential buyers!

    Even at say $45 K starting price, if it had gull-wing doors and say 250-300 mile range, BMW, Mercedes, Cadillac and Lexus will be losing significant share. The only question then will not be demand, but how quickly Tesla can ramp up production to 500 K vehicles. Between a sedan version starting at around $35 K and a crossover version with gull wing doors starting at ( say ) $45 K, the Tesla story and brand will hit the mainstream and Tesla may end up siphoning away a very significant share of total global auto industry profit $, much like the iPhone did.

    I simply cannot see Apple ever catching up to Tesla in terms of production technology on their own ( because if they outsource and buy with addl margin tacked on, they will be outpriced by Tesla), or battery scale, and a vertically integrated strategy and cost structure given Tesla's own Gigafactory.

    Elon is , and will be able to play 4 dimensional chess, including creatively inventing new pieces onto his chessboard, and say 'Catch me if you can !!! '.
    �
  • Oct 3, 2015
    Scott Ales
    As far as my personal outlook. I have 30+ years of buying and selling luxury and exotic cars. Obviously the by-product of that experience is being able to use the inventory while in stock. Hands down, the Model S is off the charts for me as a day to day car. I even enjoyed the Roadster 2010 I bought from them as a CPO car. But I have been excited about the X more than any for as long as it has been presented. For me it's less about the market and Wall Street and more about the users. We all know how often the prior get it wrong and it's no surprise, they've not used one on a daily basis to appreciate everything the product offers. Find me a naysayer who drove a Model S for 1 month or more day to day, that's really where the rubber meets the road.

    As an investor the challenge is less about the company and product and more about interpreting the misconceptions of both by either dis-interested people or our right entrenched interests. And it doesn't help that the company is environmentally based. Sure, it helps the planet, but every person in the world on the other side of that political stance has a wall up before truly considering the benefits. I can't tell you how many old timers I had to drag into my car to show them what it's all about! After they see the screen and ride less than one mile their minds are blown!

    This is going to take some time. And as I have said before, I just don't care if Tesla is late every time. We all just have to manage the investment crowd's perception of how that helps or hurts.

    Still strong like bull!
    �
  • Oct 3, 2015
    joefee
    Being a Sig owner I've seen this movie before. Just go back to 2012 TMC threads on concerns with Model S "missing/changed/design features" and look where we are today. Think where we will be in another 3 years. If TSLA goes down I'll buy more!
    �
  • Oct 3, 2015
    sub
    No offense intended to fellow forum members and especially those that contribute a lot to the investing forum like Aimc, but I just can't believe people are canceling their orders for the petty reasons they are listing (they may be hiding real reasons). I say this because I thought that those of us that have been here a while were here for bigger reasons than folding seats and cup holders. I have zero interest in buying any car from this point forward that isn't a Tesla, and I'm willing to compromise because there are more important things then my fantastical ideal car. To each their own, but I just shake my head. What I also sense is going on is that people who are jumping ship on their order are trying their best to get others to join them in order to feel justified about their decision. Misery loves company right?

    visit any brand specific car site and you will see all the "problems" and at times it can make you wonder why anyone would buy any car. It's been said before, people that are happy (or are realistic and don't expect others to be perfect when they are not) don't post much feedback except the true fanatics.

    i have zero concern about demand for X or S. When someone goes out of their way to let everyone know they are canceling I simply say next, the line is long and will continue to get longer. I mentioned this in another post, 2 clear demand levers for the future (smaller X battery and folding seat option). Those that want either will have to wait.

    i think a majority of the people canceling will be back in line at some point. Only reason I'm not buying is financial, but I don't expect Tesla to cater to me and throw a temper tantrum when they don't. I'm not special, but it appears that I'm in the minority :)

    ive made my sacrifice based on my above feelings. I'm driving a freaking i3, I refer to it as the clown car. But it runs on solar power and will do the job until I get a tesla. I can't fit a piece of plywood, a bike (with wheels), ski's, or tow for that matter but I can compromise. I haven't posted one complaint on the i3 forum for its short comings either.

    Its all all about the X ramp and making enough S until that happens. If they come up short this year it will be temporary pain. 75% of my position right now is leaps and one March call, the rest is shares. If I was all shares right now I would have zero concerns, tsla will be golden come April '16.
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    On the bright side, I heard the Apple car will be available in Rose Gold. /s
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    Quant

    Hahaha ! Nice !

    But, what they have not yet announced is that the rose gold will only be available in Hungary!

    And, in the rest of the markets the accessories will come with an assortment of case colors both from Apple and other vendors, so you can protect it from water, and damage from scratches and dents etc ! :). LOL

    The help of Genius Bar will come standard !

    And, all this coming from an Apple fan boy used to standing in line way before launch day for the original and subsequent iPhones !! Go figure !
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    Curt Renz
    Road & Track Article

    Below is the relevant sentence:

    "While the second-row seats don't fold down, they do motor forward and tilt to open up enough rear cargo space to carry sheets of plywood, two-by-fours, or even a surfboard, a Tesla engineer reassured us."
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    JRP3
    I'd be concerned with crash protection

    cr-iphone-6-plus.png
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    Wait, what?! We will get a world exclusive??? Aaaaah. That would have never happened if Apple hadn't invented cars! :tongue:
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    Curt Renz
    Go with whatever suits you, Al. If an ICE SUV with folding second row seats is your preference, then stick with it. Meanwhile, the Model X has a long backlog of orders. Soccer moms were apparently the top priority, and I'm sure Tesla's research taught them what's most important to that demographic. Once much of the backlog has been drawn down, I'd expect that folding second row seats will be offered as an option. The people running Tesla aren't fools. And for those whose real joy is constantly hauling around large items, I expect a Tesla pickup truck will eventually be produced.
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    larmor
    The converse of the folding flat seat issue: For the past 5 years i wanted an suv with 7 seats but handling like a cayenne. I called and emailed porsche development to request 7 seats, but they had no plan. I believed (maybe wrongly) that the cayenne was based on the toureg which can be configured with 7 seats. Alas, we had to get a mbz gl.

    For us 7 passengers is key, great handling is a must and not having to fill up my elephant car at a gas station would be a huge perk!

    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    Scott Ales
    We also have a GL 320 diesel for the same reasons, 7 pass. and able to pull a small dump trailer we use for our property. The day I reluctantly sold our P85+ the first thing I had to do is fill up the GL. It was a disgusting experience that I am very anxiously looking forward to never having to do again!
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    SwedishAdvocate
    Why must the wood be hauled inside of the SUV?

    Get a water proof trailer. Voil�! Problem solved.

    Now there�s one more problem: The mobile home that weighs more than the X can tow.

    Suggestion: Sell it and buy another one that the X can tow�

    You're welcome! :rolleyes:
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    gene
    I have always thought a pickup truck would be Tesla's biggest seller of all. Just look at all the electrical utilities like SC Edison. They must have thousands of pickups. The Gas Company drives around in natural gas pickups, why wouldn't electric utilities use EV trucks. Just that market alone in the USA would suck up every pickup truck Tesla could make for years to come.
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    AlMc
    Buying a trailer to haul may be a compromise way to solve one issue but now you also have created a new one. Stowing the trailer. One problem solved by compromise, another one created.
    �
    • Người đăng: vào lúc

    Không có nhận xét nào:

    Đăng nhận xét

    Đăng ký: Đăng Nhận xét (Atom)