teslamotorclub: Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020 part 2

Topher said: ?

Here is a question:

Why did Tesla announce their plans to accelerate the plans? Someone could probably have predicted the stock drop as a result. They are raising expectations of pre-orders that were mostly already happy with when they expected to get their car.
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I am skeptical of the bolded part.
In this forum -- sure.
The rest of the US, including people who have to save money to put a down payment and are going to base their decision on the Federal Tax credit -- not so much as they learn facts and time goes on.
Outside the US -- no idea

I will have to take a long shower after this Breibart link, but it purports to clarify the thinking of one prominent short seller. A major rationale to the short was the departure of key executives rather than the accelerated plan itself.
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Model 3 said: ?

I see a lot of disbelieve in that Tesla can reach their targets here. Her is an article that argues that it isn't that unreasonable that a lot of people seems to think:
Tesla Motors, Inc.'s 500,000 Unit Build Plan: Realistic or Not? -- The Motley Fool
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The "Initial Guidance For Deliveries" are simply not true. Read the ER transcripts from 2014. Musk magically gets many people to forget what he says. He could be a billionaire simply teaching that skill.

He can say 500,000 in 2017 and a million in 2020 because he will not be held to those numbers.
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Drivin, you're a spigot of negative posts re: tesla. Are you short? (On Tesla, not in stature.)
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Bimbels said: ?

Drivin, you're a spigot of negative posts re: tesla. Are you short? (On Tesla, not in stature.)
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Nope. I have no direct positions in any auto companies it us possible some of the mutual funds I have hold positions but i doubt they are short nor substantial.

Ok, I'll bite. Give me a positive reason why Tesla keeps over promising and under delivering.

@electracity has an interesting viewpoint - perhaps because Musk isn't held accountable to what he says.
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Topher said: ?

Here is a question:

Why did Tesla announce their plans to accelerate the plans? Someone could probably have predicted the stock drop as a result. They are raising expectations of pre-orders that were mostly already happy with when they expected to get their car. It would have been easy to let those expectations remain, keep the ramp up a secret and either meet or beat those expectations. What did they hope to accomplish by 'over-promising'? I have no idea.

Thank you kindly.
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By announcing an "impossible" schedule, they hope that suppliers can at least hit the original schedule. I believe Elon mentioned that suppliers will always be late, so he set an "official date" earlier than what he actually expects to be accomplished.

Making this new deadline public makes it more "real" and puts more pressure on the suppliers. I believe this is the first time Tesla has tried such a strategy. It'll be interesting to see if it works.
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Topher said: ?

Here is a question:

Why did Tesla announce their plans to accelerate the plans? Someone could probably have predicted the stock drop as a result. They are raising expectations of pre-orders that were mostly already happy with when they expected to get their car. It would have been easy to let those expectations remain, keep the ramp up a secret and either meet or beat those expectations. What did they hope to accomplish by 'over-promising'? I have no idea.

Thank you kindly.
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Elon has previously said that running a public company is a pain in the ass. Maybe he is just being himself and pushing the limits as usual and does not really care about the short term stock performance. He's just accomplishing being Elon.

He has always operated on the deman x performance and get it or come close, demand 2x and you get better than x model so his actions re Model 3 ramp up are no surprise. Even if in the end it is less than promised it is more than what might have been if they just set conservative goals. Maybe they are a lot closer to being ready than we know due to the simplicity of the 3. We shall see.
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Drivin said: ?

Nope. I have no direct positions in any auto companies it us possible some of the mutual funds I have hold positions but i doubt they are short nor substantial.

Ok, I'll bite. Give me a positive reason why Tesla keeps over promising and under delivering.

@electracity has an interesting viewpoint - perhaps because Musk isn't held accountable to what he says.
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My take is that he values max performance over meeting his stated goals. Even though he comes up short they deliver more than would have been likely otherwise.
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Drivin said: ?

Ok, I'll bite. Give me a positive reason why Tesla keeps over promising and under delivering.

@electracity has an interesting viewpoint - perhaps because Musk isn't held accountable to what he says.
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I honestly don't know - other than to agree with @electracity to some extent (does anyone really care how delayed the S was now? Will anyone care how delayed the X was in a couple of years time?) And also with @LectrikPower that Musk is being Musk by pushing the limits and he probably just can't help himself. It's how he thrives. In the end he doesn't care about anything other than achieving his goal - and that might not always follow Wall Street's expectations. But he knows (or believes) he will succeed in the end.

I do wish he would contain himself in this instance, however. I agree he could have set these unrealistic goals internally - it's like he can't help it.
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Topher said: ?

Here is a question:

Why did Tesla announce their plans to accelerate the plans? Someone could probably have predicted the stock drop as a result. They are raising expectations of pre-orders that were mostly already happy with when they expected to get their car. It would have been easy to let those expectations remain, keep the ramp up a secret and either meet or beat those expectations. What did they hope to accomplish by 'over-promising'? I have no idea.

Thank you kindly.
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I think their hand was forced once the overwhelming number of reservations become evident in the first week. They probably would have preferred to stick with their original plan as well. People went in expecting a 2, maybe 3, year wait and were resigned to that and planned accordingly (finances, interim car if necessary, etc.). However, by the end of the first day, even those who had pre-ordered that very day were at risk of having their deliveries push out beyond that. By week 1, the situation had become untenable. A 2-3 year wait is looking more like 5+, so would people be willing to wait that much longer? And the situation gets worse with every passing day. Should they just shut down accepting any new reservations until production ramp-up? None of this would be well-received by the public or the stock market. The Model 3 may be the hottest car on the planet right now, but would that remain the case 4-5 years from when they finally hit their stride and start making a dent in the backlog? The only choice, given the circumstances, is to bring the schedule forward and to announce it. Ramping up in secret won't provide any comfort to anyone still thinking of buying a Model 3 (remember that Reveal 2 is anticipated generate another wave of pre-orders). These people may simply look at the backlog of existing reservations and Tesla's original roll-out schedule and say "screw it, why bother". With the accelerated schedule announced, Elon was able to tweet that you'd better get your reservation in soon if you want the car by 2018 (i.e., you can still get it in a reasonable timeframe even if you order now)... and that anyone who ordered during the pre-reveal has a good chance of getting a car in 2017.
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Bimbels said: ?

I honestly don't know - other than to agree with @electracity to some extent (does anyone really care how delayed the S was now? Will anyone care how delayed the X was in a couple of years time?) And also with @LectrikPower that Musk is being Musk by pushing the limits and he probably just can't help himself. It's how he thrives. In the end he doesn't care about anything other than achieving his goal - and that might not always follow Wall Street's expectations. But he knows (or believes) he will succeed in the end.
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Agreed.

Also there is the whole no such thing as bad publicity thing. He's getting a lot of press setting these lofty goals, he will get it if he comes up short or if he meets the goals. Like you said, in the end it won't matter much. People will be loving their cars and forget about delivery problems for the most part.
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In the early days of Tesla Motors, before Elon Musk took over the reins but was onsite funding and advising the company on how it should build cars, people said there was an "Elon Distortion Field". That data conflicting with his wishes and desires about what was possible, and when it was possible, simply didn't make it through the barrier. "No" became "Yes."
Maybe so. But Musk has shown a real ability to take "Can't happen" and "Won't work," and turn them upside down into functional software and hardware. Sometimes (often, really) it doesn't happen as quickly as he promised. And sometimes it doesn't work quite the way it should. But in the end (whether by "end" you mean the technological shift to electric transport or the commercialization of space), he comes closer than anyone else ever has. He has done (eventually) what most people said was impossible, and not just once or twice. To me, that's enough to give him the benefit of the doubt, and a Model 3 reservation, too.
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LectrikPower said: ?

My take is that he values max performance over meeting his stated goals. Even though he comes up short they deliver more than would have been likely otherwise.
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Any good manager sets stretch goals and aggressive targets for their team. That is management 101.

The question is why is he communicating that to the investor community when he has such a bad track record of meeting those goals? What is the purpose for that?

If you can't meet your targets one strategy is to hype future targets.
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He could not keep the goals internal, as Tesla needs to spend money to meet the ramp up.
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Drivin said: ?

Any good manager sets stretch goals and aggressive targets for their team. That is management 101.

The question is why is he communicating that to the investor community when he has such a bad track record of meeting those goals? What is the purpose for that?

If you can't meet your targets one strategy is to hype future targets.
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I think most would agree that Musk goes much further than management 101 aggressive. I think I answered your question. He doesn't care and is just being his usual self. Also, what Troy said above.
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Troy916 said: ?

He could not keep the goals internal, as Tesla needs to spend money to meet the ramp up.
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This is a very good point -- he has to explain the coming round of new debt.

Or as Machiavelli may have advised: do not delay pain
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Troy916 said: ?

He could not keep the goals internal, as Tesla needs to spend money to meet the ramp up.
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... and was expecting, as Apple often experiences, leeks from their suppliers. Better to announce it them self before the rumors hit the marked.
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Model 3 said: ?

... and was expecting, as Apple often experiences, leeks from their suppliers. Better to announce it them self before the rumors hit the marked.
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And leeks, I believe, are onions.

Cue Shrek: "Ogres are like onions."
Donkey: "They stink ?"
Shrek: "NO, donkey. They have layers!" Argghhhh
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Model 3 said: ?

... and was expecting, as Apple often experiences, leeks from their suppliers. Better to announce it them self before the rumors hit the marked.
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is this cowbell speculation? if so it's awesome! Leeks are delicious.
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Bimbels said: ?

is this cowbell speculation? if so it's awesome! Leeks are delicious.
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Maybe. But he did make clear that he expected leeks (from suppliers), so he better tell the target date (1. July 2017) out loud him self. The same reason can also be behind to publish this production numbers now.
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Model 3 said: ?

Maybe. But he did make clear that he expected leeks (from suppliers), so he better tell the target date (1. July 2017) out loud him self. The same reason can also be behind to publish this production numbers now.
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Ha I see now you're in Norway...we are having some fun at your expense. Leaks/Leeks. If tesla's suppliers give them leeks, they should include a tart with each car.
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Bimbels said: ?

Leaks/Leeks.
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Well, as you have noticed - this is not my native language
Sorry for the "typo"...
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I see a problem: if they include a tart with every car they might book another 400K reservations.
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Tesla had its IPO in June 2010. At that time, it had developed only one early prototype Model S, and did not even have possession of the NUMMI factory until October 2010 (Tesla Factory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia). It had never built a car from top to bottom.

When Tesla IPO'd, Elon and Tesla made the audacious prediction that the Model S would be on the market in 2012 -- two years later -- with a target of eventually producing 20,000 vehicles. Registration Statement on Form S-1

Virtually everyone in the car industry (not to mention analysts/financial commentators) said that it would be impossible or virtually impossible for Tesla (or even a mature carmaker) to bring the Model S to market in such a short period of time. But Tesla proved them all wrong: the Model S was launched in June 2012 and by Q1 2013 Tesla was already meeting its full production target run rate of 20,000 vehicles/year (Tesla Model S - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia). And producing a car that was not just amazing but voted Car of the Century by Car and Driver. In 2016 -- only four years later -- Tesla will likely produce roughly triple the rate it originally projected (60,000/year).

From a big picture perspective, Tesla not only met but far exceeded the forecasts on Model S it made when it IPO'd -- the same predictions that all the naysayers said it could never meet.

Tesla clearly overreached by adding too many new features to the first version of the Model X, which led to delays. It has learned that lesson and designed the Model 3 very differently. Even if it ultimately misses the projected launch of the Model 3 by a few months or the ramp takes longer than expected, it still will be far ahead of what almost anyone would have expected a couple months ago. Not to mention far ahead of where any other auto companies will be with EVs.
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Model 3 said: ?

Well, as you have noticed - this is not my native language
Sorry for the "typo"...
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Don't worry, most people who complain don't have a second language.
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Bimbels said: ?

I agree about the service centers. My closest is 1h15 away - fine for annual service but not ideal. And definitely not fine if you need to go in for anything else - which I've had to do. It will turn some potential buyers away.
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I'm 2h30 mins to the nearest service center (180 miles)

I'm 5-15 mins to the nearest supercharger (7 miles)

I'm definitely in the camp that wants more service centers but I also want more superchargers.

That supercharger that is near me stopped working recently and I'd rather have more locations on different power grids than to have more stalls at the existing supercharger locations.
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About 6 hours for me, but I don't complain too loudly. Some of the Canadians are truly far away from a SC
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Model 3 said: ?

leaks from their suppliers. Better to announce it them self before the rumors hit the marked.
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Yes, but even more importantly, serious buy in from suppliers.

Given the "accelerate sustainable transport" mission, there was really no choice. Accelerating the M3 ramp helps to set up generation 4!
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landis said: ?

Yes, but even more importantly, serious buy in from suppliers.

Given the "accelerate sustainable transport" mission, there was really no choice. Accelerating the M3 ramp helps to set up generation 4!
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I predict mass hysteria in ~ 2 yrs when EM says "500,000 wasn't that bad, now was it ? I want 5,000,000 in 2020."
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The whole generation 4 thing was said as an offhand comment about a future in which EVs are even more affordable... there are no plans as of yet AFAIK.
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an article I read speculated the reasons why Elon set such lofty goals - he work best in super stressful conditions, as I think others have pointed out here.

Elon Musk Keeps Promising the Impossible. I Think I Know Why.
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Topher said: ?

Here is a question:

Why did Tesla announce their plans to accelerate the plans? Someone could probably have predicted the stock drop as a result. They are raising expectations of pre-orders that were mostly already happy with when they expected to get their car. It would have been easy to let those expectations remain, keep the ramp up a secret and either meet or beat those expectations. What did they hope to accomplish by 'over-promising'? I have no idea.

Thank you kindly.
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I do not agree. I think that EM only expected 100-150K M3 orders and all his plans were really based on this assumption. When Tesla received reservations at the current level, EM had to ramp up plans and clarify expectations.

Now on this board, yes everyone seemed content to wait until 2019, 2020, 2021 and beyond but the individuals on this board do not represent the average M3 reservation holder. If order deliveries stretched into later 2019 or 2020, I think many reservation holders would bail. That would be an absolute nightmare for Tesla and I think that is EM's fear.

He wants to reassure reservation holders that they will be getting their cars in 2018 or 2019 at latest. That is a timeframe most will accept and Tesla knows it has to meet. Tesla is dealing with a new type of customer now and that customer is fickle.
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weak_pig said: ?

an article I read speculated the reasons why Elon set such lofty goals - he work best in super stressful conditions, as I think others have pointed out here.

Elon Musk Keeps Promising the Impossible. I Think I Know Why.
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Good read and an interesting take on an extraordinary man. Appreciate the share.
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McHoffa said: ?

They were at 115k worldwide partway into the reveal. I'd say if you ordered at 10:15, you're probably in the first 10k in the US. What number were you in line at your store? Multiply that by 100 (about the # of US Tesla stores). Give or take a few thousand (depending on how fast orders were going through at your store compared to others) that is about your place in line. My store had connection issues, so even though I was #27 waiting outside, I didn't order until 10:30am, and was actually about #20 in my store to order (other line was slower).

If Musk says they hope to deliver 100,000 to 200,000 by the end of 2017, I guarantee we'd both get ours next year even if they don't come close to meeting their goals. If they do meet that target, I would probably even get my wife's next year, though like I said, I'd hold off on delivery of that until just after Jan 1 so I could get a second tax credit.
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Well actually i'm Toronto Canada and our store opened up at 9am. I guess they didn't want the servers to be overloaded. I was actually about 175th in line at this time but the line was moving very fast. I"m not sure how the logistics will work sending cars to Toronto but i assume they'll group them with those in the northeast.
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weak_pig said: ?

an article I read speculated the reasons why Elon set such lofty goals - he work best in super stressful conditions, as I think others have pointed out here.
Why.
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I doubt this very much. He is not that weak or lame that he needs to motivate himself by relying on over promising and under delivering.
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Drivin said: ?

I doubt this very much. He is not that weak or lame that he needs to motivate himself by relying on over promising and under delivering.
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Personally I dont interrupt his personality as "Over promising and under delivering". That may be a by product for his appetite of being extremely driven...or the need to keep pushing. His motivation is to change the world...or create the spark that lights the fire to change the world.

I doubt you or I can truly identify since there's only a handful of people actually doing it. I know I'm not one of them and I'll go out on a limb and say neither are you.
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I remember someone telling me once that "aim higher than you think you can possibly achieve, and even if you fall short, you've still gone a lot higher than you otherwise would have"
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pmich80 said: ?

I guess they didn't want the servers to be overloaded.
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A single server can handle thousands of transactions per second. Not the issue.
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Waiting4M3 said: ?

I remember someone telling me once that "aim higher than you think you can possibly achieve, and even if you fall short, you've still gone a lot higher than you otherwise would have"
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"Keepeth your head in the clouds and your feet on the ground"
Abraham Lincoln

We would still have slavery without that attitude.
Still need to have feet on the ground to be able to deliver.
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Topher said: ?

What did they hope to accomplish by 'over-promising'? I have no idea.
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1. Put pressure on suppliers.
2. Build confidence among existing reservations.
3. Attract continuing/more reservations.

I suspect they were successful with #1. The other two I dunno yet.
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Before the call I was worried about not recieving a Model 3 even in 2018. After the Q1 call I personally had more even respect for the drive Elon Musk has.

I've dreamed of having an electric car since I was little. When the Roadster came out I thought that we might actually have a bright future with electric cars that are fun to drive and actually look cool. I've believed in the master plan for the last decade and will continue to do so. I've sat back and waited years for this moment that's almost upon us. I'd say number 2 on your list is definitely accomplished for me personally. The Model 3 is brought up in nearly every conversation I've had with others (they probably think I'm nuts). Point is, there are probably others like me and number 3 on your list is going to be easy.

Finally a "real" electric car almost within reach to the masses.
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Alketi said: ?

Musk has said that the Model 3 batteries should be 10-15% more energy dense and 10-15% larger and taller, yielding a net of ~30% more energy density per cell.

Also, the assembled battery packs are all the same physical size -- the lower spec'd ones just have some "blanks" instead of cells.

This whole video is worth the watch, but it's queued to the point where Musk talks about the Gigafactory improvements:

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Does this mean Tesla batteries are repairable? I.e. is it possible to replace failed or weak cells ? I guess we will need a separate thread for battery discussions.
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They are repairable but it's far easier to replace a bad module of cells than individual cells. Since even that requires disassembly, it's easier to replace the entire battery pack if it's under warranty, than to repair that particular battery for that owner.
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Jayc said: ?

Does this mean Tesla batteries are repairable? I.e. is it possible to replace failed or weak cells ? I guess we will need a separate thread for battery discussions.
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I doubt it would ever be economically feasible to replace individual cells. The video showed the pack assembly, which includes individual fuses for each cell and a glycol solution with tubing woven between the cells for temperature stability. It's just not worth chasing down individual cells when the pack or entire battery assembly can be replaced.
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zenmaster said: ?

A single server can handle thousands of transactions per second. Not the issue.
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and yet certain cities opened at 9am...while others opened at 10am
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Remember how JFK set what many thought was an "impossible" goal.

I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth.� - President John F. Kennedy, May 25, 1961

Eight years later, on July 20, 1969, two American astronauts walked on the Moon.
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Leaders like Elon Musk set goals that require out of the box thinking in order to achieve what was previously thought to be impossible. The analysts that want to focus on how "unrealistic" it sounds and move forward at the current auto industry's slow and measured pace would have the Model 3 here in 2025...
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Having very aggressive timeliness is not always the best thing. If Elon is serious (or perceived as such) people can start taking shortcuts to meet the deadline. If he is not that serious and people know that - then what's the point?

It is best to have slightly aggressive targets so that people think they can achieve it by being innovative or working hard.

BTW, depending on how seriously I take this - it complicates my idea of taking Bolt lease for 2 years as I wait.
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dhanson865 said: ?

I'm 2h30 mins to the nearest service center (180 miles)

I'm 5-15 mins to the nearest supercharger (7 miles)

I'm definitely in the camp that wants more service centers but I also want more superchargers.

That supercharger that is near me stopped working recently and I'd rather have more locations on different power grids than to have more stalls at the existing supercharger locations.
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In some areas, I see BOTH becoming a thing.

A service center with superchargers in the footprint.

It will save Tesla some time in certain jurisdictions when it comes to permitting, etc etc. It will also have the added bonus of having Tesla employees around to babysit the SC's during business hours, and hopefully prevent the backups, and/or abuse so many current owners are fearful of.
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N5329K said: ?

In the early days of Tesla Motors, before Elon Musk took over the reins but was onsite funding and advising the company on how it should build cars, people said there was an "Elon Distortion Field". That data conflicting with his wishes and desires about what was possible, and when it was possible, simply didn't make it through the barrier. "No" became "Yes."
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The term "Reality Distortion Field" was actually coined for Steve Jobs: Reality distortion field - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Although, I don't doubt that Elon Musk has the same effect on his employees.
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I think Elon is more likely to actually prove it to be at least possible on paper right in front of a person rather than just making stuff up. Even though things sometimes don't work out, they are at least possible.
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plankeye said: ?

The term "Reality Distortion Field" was actually coined for Steve Jobs: Reality distortion field - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Although, I don't doubt that Elon Musk has the same effect on his employees.
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Wikipedia is probably wrong.
Remember that Tesla does it first and Apple is the graveyard for Tesla employees.
Steve Jobs is dead and Elon lives. Q.E.D.
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Drivin said: ?

Wikipedia is probably wrong.
Remember that Tesla does it first and Apple is the graveyard for Tesla employees.
Steve Jobs is dead and Elon lives. Q.E.D.
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Since it was coined in 1981, I don't think so. Elon was 10 at the time.
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Elon Musk is one of the most powerful people/leaders of our time. Any deadlines he missed were either self-inflicted (scope creep), or were truly out of his control, i.e. not discovered until it was too late.

Now, with the benefit of hindsight and knowledge of past mistakes, and the lessons learned from them, I truly believe it will be different this time around. I also believe EM has a genuine desire to erase his current perception of being perpetually late on everything. I think he knows it will at least improve his stock price/stability if nothing else.

EM also now knows that his cars don't need to be quite as gee-whiz to still sell well and be amazing cars. So, armed with that knowledge and a lot of learning about how to design a car for manufacturability, reliability and serviceability, I think they can, and will, execute much closer to target on the M3 ramp.
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plankeye said: ?

Since it was coined in 1981, I don't think so. Elon was 10 at the time.
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That just proves it.
Elon was all powerful from the day he was born.
I was surprised that it took 10 years for it to be known.
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plankeye said: ?

Elon Musk is one of the most powerful people/leaders of our time. Any deadlines he missed were either self-inflicted (scope creep), or were truly out of his control, i.e. not discovered until it was too late.

Now, with the benefit of hindsight and knowledge of past mistakes, and the lessons learned from them, I truly believe it will be different this time around. I also believe EM has a genuine desire to erase his current perception of being perpetually late on everything. I think he knows it will at least improve his stock price/stability if nothing else.

EM also now knows that his cars don't need to be quite as gee-whiz to still sell well and be amazing cars. So, armed with that knowledge and a lot of learning about how to design a car for manufacturability, reliability and serviceability, I think they can, and will, execute much closer to target on the M3 ramp.
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I don't agree. I think that some of those factors do apply, and I agree that there is some chance that they will execute on time. However, I put it at a level somewhere under 50%.

I think that Musk simply operates under a different set of assumptions than most people do. When people hear a statement such as "Our goal is to produce 500 thousand cars a year by the end of 2018", most people will set their expectation that this will be accomplished, and if it isn't, they will be disappointed and they will count it a failure. However, most people will not have put any thought into understanding the difficulty of the goal.

Engineers, I think, can understand this sort of thing easily. Projects of any complexity have a tendency to balloon to consume (usually), whatever development time is allocated to them. And if there are any issues which arise, they exceed that development time. So if you are very conservative in the time estimate, and the project is also very complex, you can be sure that the effort will exceed your conservative estimate... perhaps greatly.

Elon sets extremely difficult goals that he knows are risky - we call these "stretch" goals. They are valuable because in the simplest terms, they make development organizations more effective. By setting a very difficult goal, you ensure that what is achieved is greater than what would have been achieved without the stretch goal. This happens, usually, on the back of what is objectively a very punishing working environment that can best be summed up as relentless. Having worked in these kinds of environments for much of my adult life, I can attest to the fact that stretch goals make teams more productive... but of course they are painful. All that aside, however, it makes a sort of perverse sense to set these kinds of punishing goals when you know you face difficult circumstances, because they ensure that wherever you wind up, it will be further along the road than you would have been without the goals.
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ttupper92618 said: ?

Elon sets extremely difficult goals that he knows are risky - we call these "stretch" goals. They are valuable because in the simplest terms, they make development organizations more effective. .
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There is absolutely no evidence that that is the case.
Stretch goals can also demotivate organizations, result in a culture of "oh, we heard this before" and behave like it is yet another "stretch" goal that won't happen, result in staff saying that are okay with an abusive paternal environment that is never happy with results, etc.
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ttupper92618 said: ?

I don't agree. I think that some of those factors do apply, and I agree that there is some chance that they will execute on time. However, I put it at a level somewhere under 50%.

I think that Musk simply operates under a different set of assumptions than most people do. When people hear a statement such as "Our goal is to produce 500 thousand cars a year by the end of 2018", most people will set their expectation that this will be accomplished, and if it isn't, they will be disappointed and they will count it a failure. However, most people will not have put any thought into understanding the difficulty of the goal.

Engineers, I think, can understand this sort of thing easily. Projects of any complexity have a tendency to balloon to consume (usually), whatever development time is allocated to them. And if there are any issues which arise, they exceed that development time. So if you are very conservative in the time estimate, and the project is also very complex, you can be sure that the effort will exceed your conservative estimate... perhaps greatly.

Elon sets extremely difficult goals that he knows are risky - we call these "stretch" goals. They are valuable because in the simplest terms, they make development organizations more effective. By setting a very difficult goal, you ensure that what is achieved is greater than what would have been achieved without the stretch goal. This happens, usually, on the back of what is objectively a very punishing working environment that can best be summed up as relentless. Having worked in these kinds of environments for much of my adult life, I can attest to the fact that stretch goals make teams more productive... but of course they are painful. All that aside, however, it makes a sort of perverse sense to set these kinds of punishing goals when you know you face difficult circumstances, because they ensure that wherever you wind up, it will be further along the road than you would have been without the goals.
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I agree with your assessment. When EM sets a stretch goal, I think there is little chance of actually achieving the goal. However, to his credit, something impressive is achieved. Unfortunately, I think that this strategy has chipped away at EM credibility and created a situation where everyone is left guessing as to the real goal underlying the stretch goal. His last conference call was met with a lot of eye rolling and many Analysts who cover Tesla are getting frustrated. Tesla will need additional capital to achieve all these stretch goals and his communication strategy is starting to wear on those that will provide that capital.
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Drivin said: ?

There is absolutely no evidence that that is the case.
Stretch goals can also demotivate organizations, result in a culture of "oh, we heard this before" and behave like it is yet another "stretch" goal that won't happen, result in staff saying that are okay with an abusive paternal environment that is never happy with results, etc.
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Drivin, man, are you on the right board?

You're the Eeyore-like black cloud hanging over all of us.

If I want to come back down to earth and have a negative outlook on Tesla news, I just need to search out your posts.

Did Elon steal your girl or something?
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I don't think people fully realize how long they've already been working on the Model 3
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ModelNforNerd said: ?

Drivin, man, are you on the right board?

You're the Eeyore-like black cloud hanging over all of us.

If I want to come back down to earth and have a negative outlook on Tesla news, I just need to search out your posts.

Did Elon steal your girl or something?
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Try spending some time on the Seeking Alpha Boards. EM is either the next Bernie Madoff or a Martian looking to destroy the human race. Drivin is likely sugar coating his views for this board.
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Drivin said: ?

There is absolutely no evidence that that is the case.
Stretch goals can also demotivate organizations, result in a culture of "oh, we heard this before" and behave like it is yet another "stretch" goal that won't happen, result in staff saying that are okay with an abusive paternal environment that is never happy with results, etc.
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But there is plenty of evidence in Elon's stretch goals becoming eventually successful.

You may want to revisit Elon's history of starting and operating billion dollar companies.

Fan or not, what he has done in the last 20 years in starting and running these companies is arguably the greatest one man business achievement in history.

Name me 5 others in the history of business that has started, sold, and/or operated as ceo 3 businesses worth multiple billion of dollars each. Throw in solar city and we're talking about a 4th.

So yeah...his stretch goals are NOT on the same level as the stretch goals of the majority of companies that you may be accustomed to.

And it very well may lead it to being stressful and misery for some employees. But thats why he's accomplished so much in so little time. He doesn't set goals conservatively..he sets them to be unrealistic...doing so will achieve greater results than to not set them in the first place. Only a very small amount of people can pull this off.
He's one of them.

It doesn't come without criticism or naysayers...the majority of us are "normal" which means WE can't or don't think in the same pool as he does....Or aren't daring enough to stick our butts on the line for such lofty goals.

Love him or hate him, he's unique...I don't see any other ceo doing or attempting to do what Elon is doing with tesla and spacex (solar city).
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ModelNforNerd said: ?

If I want to come back down to earth and have a negative outlook on Tesla news, I just need to search out your posts.
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You think that a comment about the organizational impact on "stretch goals" that are not achieved is some sort of negative outlook on Tesla? Well, ok then. Caution: stay away from any business and organizational behavior classes.

Not sure why you have a problem with coming down to earth either.
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Drivin said: ?

There is absolutely no evidence that that is the case.
Stretch goals can also demotivate organizations, result in a culture of "oh, we heard this before" and behave like it is yet another "stretch" goal that won't happen, result in staff saying that are okay with an abusive paternal environment that is never happy with results, etc.
Click to expand...

Stretch goals work very well with A players. They work poorly with B and C players. That said, it's not my place or intent to argue that stretch goals are awesome. I noted that they create a very painful working environment. The question you should then ask is, does Elon Musk care if working at one of his companies is hard? I think the answer to that question is very obvious.

Anecdotally, I will just observe that in my professional life, I've worked in these sorts of environments, and faced extremely hostile schedules. I've never failed to meet a stretch goal. And yes, it was hell. But these goals did get us further ahead than we would otherwise have been. Take that for what it is worth.

Finally I want to offer this: I don't know if any of what I am saying about EM is true or not; it is cobbled together from what I've read about him, and things he has said. I'm formulating a hypothesis like anyone else... but it is, at least, based on experience working in startups. I wonder if EM ever reads this stuff and is amused by how well we all think we know him.
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ttupper92618 said: ?

Stretch goals work very well with A players. They work poorly with B and C players. That said, it's not my place or intent to argue that stretch goals are awesome. I noted that they create a very painful working environment. The question you should then ask is, does Elon Musk care if working at one of his companies is hard? I think the answer to that question is very obvious..
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I think many did not expect for Model 3 to be this far along. If all Tesla need is 6-8 to finalize the exterior what production is what they need to focus on.

Therefore EM figured it's time to transition Tesla into the high volume manufacturer, sooner the better. It was inevitable and much needed based on what we see happening with Model X "ramp-up". I also suspect that EM sees the need to keep suppliers on a short leash and want's to keep them 100% committed to the project. He does so by announcing high volume production and clear schedule.
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NC-3 said: ?

Eight years later, on July 20, 1969, two American astronauts walked on the Moon, thanks to virtually limitless funding, and the vast resources of the military industrial complex".
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I like the analogy, but it doesn't quite fit. The key here is whether or not investors believe...
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182RG said: ?

I like the analogy, but it doesn't quite fit. The key here is whether or not investors believe...
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Luckily SpaceX isn't a publically traded company...
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182RG said: ?

Eight years later, on July 20, 1969, two American astronauts walked on the Moon, thanks to virtually limitless funding,
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What else are you going to do with that money? Bail out a bank? 50 years of NASA < 2008 Bank bailout.

Thank you kindly.
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ttupper92618 said: ?

Stretch goals work very well with A players. They work poorly with B and C players. That said, it's not my place or intent to argue that stretch goals are awesome.
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Well, someone up thread thought that they make organizations more effective which is not true. Can happen in some cases for short term goals, longer term it creates bigger issues as it has an impact on the culture and the type of people who decide they want to stay in that environment.

The question you should then ask is, does Elon Musk care if working at one of his companies is hard? I think the answer to that question is very obvious.
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Agreed. He shouldn't care since he has decided that is what he wants. Navigating that, more than any new features will determine the long term success of the mission. It is hard enough to scale and find great talent, that just creates another constraint. Microsoft was like that in the early days too.

I wonder if EM ever reads this stuff and is amused by how well we all think we know him.
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Gosh, I hope he isn't spending time here. He has work to do! Two execs are gone, got a lot of scaling to do and have you seen SunPower's recent earnings ?
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This kind of aggressive action is necessary now. I think in 10 years or so Tesla will be humming along at a much more relaxed pace churning out some sweet cars. Can't wait.
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Drivin said: ?

Well, someone up thread thought that they make organizations more effective which is not true. Can happen in some cases for short term goals, longer term it creates bigger issues as it has an impact on the culture and the type of people who decide they want to stay in that environment.
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It does make them more effective in the short term. Long term musk will probably hand off the reigns to someone else after Tesla's production is steady
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Vitold said: ?

I think many did not expect for Model 3 to be this far along. If all Tesla need is 6-8 to finalize the exterior what production is what they need to focus on.

Therefore EM figured it's time to transition Tesla into the high volume manufacturer, sooner the better. It was inevitable and much needed based on what we see happening with Model X "ramp-up". I also suspect that EM sees the need to keep suppliers on a short leash and want's to keep them 100% committed to the project. He does so by announcing high volume production and clear schedule.
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Hope you're right. I don't want to see Tesla crash and burn by tripping over its shoelaces on the way to getting the best-ever EV on the road. For the record, better late than never. I would much rather have a Model 3 on my driveway in 2025 than have no Model 3 at all.

And yeah, since it sounds like engineering is (for all intents and purposes) complete, getting suppliers on board is the most important next step. Talking big about sales numbers and how soon parts are needed is vital. Bend your employees and keep them busy, Elon, but don't break them! Please!

Did anybody see the opinion article over on Ars about this? No link so you don't have to go there and add a view to their site; just read the important bit here:

The upcoming Model 3 will be far less complex than the Model X and Model S, yet any interruption in the flow of development and integration of parts from outside suppliers will put the production schedule at risk. Even the most stellar manufacturing companies make plans for such interruptions, but Tesla thinks it's immune. In fact, Musk indicated that Tesla could make those parts by itself at its Fremont factory, an absurd assertion.
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Somebody explain the logic here.
1. A parts shortage from an outside supplier is the #1 thing that will destroy the production schedule. (OK)
2. Tesla must have a plan to mitigate this issue. (OK)
(Tesla's solution is to make parts themselves if a supplier falls through.) (Sounds good to me.)
3. Since Tesla can't possibly make parts for its own car, they don't have a plan. (??)
4. Therefore, Tesla "thinks it's immune" and will fall behind. (??)

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One post moved to snippiness
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int32_t said: ?

Somebody explain the logic here.
1. A parts shortage from an outside supplier is the #1 thing that will destroy the production schedule. (OK)
2. Tesla must have a plan to mitigate this issue. (OK)
(Tesla's solution is to make parts themselves if a supplier falls through.) (Sounds good to me.)
3. Since Tesla can't possibly make parts for its own car, they don't have a plan. (??)
4. Therefore, Tesla "thinks it's immune" and will fall behind. (??)

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I would not rule out supplier sabotage (by delaying project), especially by those that are closely aligned with auto industry (which is most of them). Tesla can plan for small scale in-house production to mitigate risk of delays especially in the beginning of a roll-out (and sends message that they cannot be blackmailed).

Considering above, both, Tesla and article are right - Tesla producing parts internally can help in the beginning (on small scale) but it cannot be relied on when they start making, say, 100000/yr copies. Once they are making a lot of cars they will need to source parts from multiple suppliers to mitigate the risk. And, that's what Ars article is talking about.
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But there's a Tesla coolness factor... I mean to be able to say you supply parts to Tesla is cool and for you to be able to continue to say that then you'd probably have to deliver on time.

I mean you can always whip out a banjo and say you supply parts to Ford, but it just doesn't carry the same weight or street cred..
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ttupper92618 said: ?

Stretch goals work very well with A players. They work poorly with B and C players. That said, it's not my place or intent to argue that stretch goals are awesome. I noted that they create a very painful working environment. The question you should then ask is, does Elon Musk care if working at one of his companies is hard? I think the answer to that question is very obvious.

Anecdotally, I will just observe that in my professional life, I've worked in these sorts of environments, and faced extremely hostile schedules. I've never failed to meet a stretch goal. And yes, it was hell. But these goals did get us further ahead than we would otherwise have been. Take that for what it is worth.

Finally I want to offer this: I don't know if any of what I am saying about EM is true or not; it is cobbled together from what I've read about him, and things he has said. I'm formulating a hypothesis like anyone else... but it is, at least, based on experience working in startups. I wonder if EM ever reads this stuff and is amused by how well we all think we know him.
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I completely agree with this. I do believe that if a company rewards its employees handsomely for putting in the extra effort then people will last longer working in this environment.

In addition if a company has a reputation for rewarding employees and being a place where someone can gain vast skill quickly out of school or even as a seasoned employee people will flock there. Yes they will lose people as they burn out and then more people will be lined up to take that place. It is a fine line though if you get too many people burned then you start to hinder your ability to hire new talent. Look at Amazon. I think they walk a fine line between being a place to get amazing skills but they also are notoriously brutal with their employees but they still manage to gain new ones. I think it is because people who are new really want a challenge that will set them apart from the average college grad.

Right now I think Tesla is this company. Being part of Tesla right now could be a life changer for your career. Hiring companies are watching and if the company has a reputation for hiring the best then it shouldn't be too hard to get another job when you burn out. Can they keep this up indefinitely I don't know. I am sure parts of the company later will become easier to work for similar to Apple. I have friends who work for Apple and some groups still have the original Steve Jobs notorious work ethic but other groups are more laid back where the manager understands you have a family.

Tesla while they ramp can get away with these insane stretch goals. How the company treats those employees when this ramp is all said and done will determine how Tesla fares with new employees in the future. I hope the people who put in the effort are rewarded appropriately. If they are burned out at the end of this then they can move on to somewhere more stable.
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Vitold said: ?

I would not rule out supplier sabotage (by delaying project), especially by those that are closely aligned with auto industry (which is most of them). Tesla can plan for small scale in-house production to mitigate risk of delays especially in the beginning of a roll-out (and sends message that they cannot be blackmailed).
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That's a black helicopter, tin-foil hat wearing prediction right there............

Suppliers want revenue with good margins, production stability/predictability, and a good relationship (read: they don't want customers who act like ass-hats).
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182RG said: ?

That's a black helicopter, tin-foil hat wearing prediction right there............

Suppliers want revenue with good margins, production stability/predictability, and a good relationship (read: they don't want customers who act like ass-hats).
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Exactly, Tesla needs to convince them they are (and will be) good customer. One way to do it is to announce that "they would like 500,000 of this part, please".

Industrial espionage and sabotage is no fairly tale.
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JeffK said: ?

But there's a Tesla coolness factor... I mean to be able to say you supply parts to Tesla is cool and for you to be able to continue to say that then you'd probably have to deliver on time.

I mean you can always whip out a banjo and say you supply parts to Ford, but it just doesn't carry the same weight or street cred..
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Not sure how many companies that are large enough to supply a company like Tesla cares about "coolness" vs. "margins" and "profits".

I am sure GT Advanced would have preferred to have money over the coolness of trying to meet Apple's sapphire requirements
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Drivin said: ?

Not sure how many companies that are large enough to supply a company like Tesla cares about "coolness" vs. "margins" and "profits".

I am sure GT Advanced would have preferred to have money over the coolness of trying to meet Apple's sapphire requirements
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Nvidia seems to be a proud partner up to this point. If they have as much or more to do with the center console screen, I suspect we'll be hearing all about it.
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I find it interesting that they are just recently setting up a "growth" team for the ramp up:

Tesla is building a new Growth Team �from scratch� ahead of the Model 3 launch, hires from Facebook and Uber

It seems like this sort of team should have been in place long ago, but maybe I don't understand silicon valley sorts of businesses (I work in the old-school slow defense industry)
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Az_Rael said: ?

I find it interesting that they are just recently setting up a "growth" team for the ramp up:

Tesla is building a new Growth Team �from scratch� ahead of the Model 3 launch, hires from Facebook and Uber

It seems like this sort of team should have been in place long ago, but maybe I don't understand silicon valley sorts of businesses (I work in the old-school slow defense industry)
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From the article:

to start and scale the Growth Analytics function....This data will be useful to determine the best way to expand Tesla�s user base
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It appears to me more data oriented around customer acquisition and so getting people from Uber and Facebook makes sense.

I would expect that they are also aggressively recruiting people who know the other side, being able to ramp up manufacturing and quality control and customer service. I don't think they will find many of those people at Facebook.
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Vitold said: ?

Once they are making a lot of cars they will need to source parts from multiple suppliers to mitigate the risk. And, that's what Ars article is talking about.
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So really this article is about half a decade early. This isn't an issue yet and won't be for some time -- if it is ever an issue, since Tesla will be even bigger and have still more experience by the time they are making too many vehicles to make parts themselves. (That's sort of what I hear you saying, right?)
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Bimbels said: ?

Can you cite a source? Because I thought he said the Model 3 would have the newest suite of sensors - which would be more advanced than at least current S/X. They may both end up with the same sensors - if so how will the S/X be "better?"
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Sorry, I don't have a link on hand, but the source is Elon.

And it was just generally about the S/X being the premium models and having more advanced tech. Not necessarily autopilot, but maybe stuff like auto-presenting doors, etc.

You can try searching through our archives for specific quotes, or the conf call transcripts (published on Seeking Alpha -- gasp! -- and hopefully other places). Search bar in the menu and another based on Google on the bottom-right in the sidebar: CleanTechnica
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BluestarE3 said: ?

I think their hand was forced once the overwhelming number of reservations become evident in the first week. They probably would have preferred to stick with their original plan as well. People went in expecting a 2, maybe 3, year wait and were resigned to that and planned accordingly (finances, interim car if necessary, etc.). However, by the end of the first day, even those who had pre-ordered that very day were at risk of having their deliveries push out beyond that. By week 1, the situation had become untenable. A 2-3 year wait is looking more like 5+, so would people be willing to wait that much longer? And the situation gets worse with every passing day. Should they just shut down accepting any new reservations until production ramp-up? None of this would be well-received by the public or the stock market. The Model 3 may be the hottest car on the planet right now, but would that remain the case 4-5 years from when they finally hit their stride and start making a dent in the backlog? The only choice, given the circumstances, is to bring the schedule forward and to announce it. Ramping up in secret won't provide any comfort to anyone still thinking of buying a Model 3 (remember that Reveal 2 is anticipated generate another wave of pre-orders). These people may simply look at the backlog of existing reservations and Tesla's original roll-out schedule and say "screw it, why bother". With the accelerated schedule announced, Elon was able to tweet that you'd better get your reservation in soon if you want the car by 2018 (i.e., you can still get it in a reasonable timeframe even if you order now)... and that anyone who ordered during the pre-reveal has a good chance of getting a car in 2017.
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This.

+ this: "he has to explain the coming round of new debt."
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ttupper92618 said: ?

Stretch goals work very well with A players. They work poorly with B and C players. That said, it's not my place or intent to argue that stretch goals are awesome. I noted that they create a very painful working environment. The question you should then ask is, does Elon Musk care if working at one of his companies is hard? I think the answer to that question is very obvious.
Click to expand...

I know someone who worked for Elon directly. I for one won't be lining up to work for EM - since I have a family (the same reason the person I know quit working for EM).

There is another side to these death marches (sorry, "stretch goals"). This will force people to take shortcuts. If you have to do something by tomorrow - you are forced to make a decision irrespective of whether you have all the data or whether enough analysis has been done. The decisions made could be good - or not so good. This can come back to haunt Tesla later when they find design issues that delay ramp up.

I've been in death march projects - where things finally got so delayed that if we had realistic targets to start with, we would have delivered earlier.
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Yeah, that's what I'm afraid of. It's definitely human nature to cut corners when pushed too hard. Happens all the time at my work.
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Although to be fair they aren't changing the Model S release timeline, just ramping up the output.
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EVNow said: ?

<snip>
I've been in death march projects - where things finally got so delayed that if we had realistic targets to start with, we would have delivered earlier.
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I've seen more than one company die as a result of this practice. The problem was always the same, too short goals on hard projects resulting in people not having enough time to do it right (which often takes a couple of tries). The projects continued with everyone willfully blind to the fact that it wasn't actually working, despite what the PERT charts said.

Then came the day of reckoning when it couldn't be denied any longer that it wouldn't work. Then came the analysis which showed that basically, the project had to be done over from scratch. At that point, further funding was very tough to come by.
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I would say that for most companies, "death marches" would indeed cause failures on many levels. However, Tesla is not like most companies. In fact, it is very unique as to not only the extreme loyalty of customers and "cult followers" but I would venture a guess as to the unwavering loyalty of the employees. Tesla customers have paid a lot of money to be apart of something revolutionary and have put up with delays, repairs, and sometimes disappointment. Yet, they are happy with their cars and with EM (again, for the most part)! Those who go to work for EM know what they are signing up for, they believe in the company and EM. The employees believe in the purpose of Tesla. When you believe to your core about something, you will go far above and beyond the call of duty.

Tesla employees have made sacrifices and they will continue to do so because they believe in EM/Tesla and their values. If only the rest of us could be so lucky as to work for a company like Tesla.....
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TslaIsFuture said: ?

I would say that for most companies, "death marches" would indeed cause failures on many levels. However, Tesla is not like most companies. In fact, it is very unique as to not only the extreme loyalty of customers and "cult followers" but I would venture a guess as to the unwavering loyalty of the employees. Tesla customers have paid a lot of money to be apart of something revolutionary and have put up with delays, repairs, and sometimes disappointment. Yet, they are happy with their cars and with EM (again, for the most part)! Those who go to work for EM know what they are signing up for, they believe in the company and EM. The employees believe in the purpose of Tesla. When you believe to your core about something, you will go far above and beyond the call of duty.

Tesla employees have made sacrifices and they will continue to do so because they believe in EM/Tesla and their values. If only the rest of us could be so lucky as to work for a company like Tesla.....
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What a highbrow load of hogwash. Employees care about making a paycheck. Executives that make seven figures can put on a good show about working 80 hours a week but it burns out the non workaholics pretty quickly. You also don't see that behind the scenes they have an entire squadron of underlings to delegate to, even to the point of doing their shopping, picking up their kids and cooking their vegan meals! Or that they go play golf for four hours with minions running around doing things for them and call it "working". Now ask a regular employee to work that hard without the level of support they enjoy.

Human nature is to put the minimum effort in for the maximum reward out. Your top "A" players will do more for a variety of reasons, but no one with any desire for a life outside of work is going to put EM and Tesla's mission up on a pedestal the way you have described.
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EVNow said: ?

I know someone who worked for Elon directly. I for one won't be lining up to work for EM - since I have a family (the same reason the person I know quit working for EM).

There is another side to these death marches (sorry, "stretch goals"). This will force people to take shortcuts. If you have to do something by tomorrow - you are forced to make a decision irrespective of whether you have all the data or whether enough analysis has been done. The decisions made could be good - or not so good. This can come back to haunt Tesla later when they find design issues that delay ramp up.

I've been in death march projects - where things finally got so delayed that if we had realistic targets to start with, we would have delivered earlier.
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Only true if you're a person who tends towards taking shortcuts in life. My daddy instilled in me as a young child, anything worth doing is worth doing right. He spoke that message and showed me that message in many forms growing up, such that you'd have to put a gun to my head nowadays and even then I'm more likely to tell you to take a flying leap then shortcut something.

One may not like the choices in front of them, but there's always a choice. Nobody is forcing anyone unless you want to be or allow yourself to be forced.

It's well known now that working at Tesla isn't an easy job. People should know this (having done some basic research) before applying for a job there. If you haven't done that basic research and find yourself shocked, then you likely don't belong there in the first place.
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voip-ninja said: ?

What a highbrow load of hogwash. Employees care about making a paycheck. Executives that make seven figures can put on a good show about working 80 hours a week but it burns out the non workaholics pretty quickly. You also don't see that behind the scenes they have an entire squadron of underlings to delegate to, even to the point of doing their shopping, picking up their kids and cooking their vegan meals! Or that they go play golf for four hours with minions running around doing things for them and call it "working". Now ask a regular employee to work that hard without the level of support they enjoy.

Human nature is to put the minimum effort in for the maximum reward out. Your top "A" players will do more for a variety of reasons, but no one with any desire for a life outside of work is going to put EM and Tesla's mission up on a pedestal the way you have described.
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Your post says more about yourself than it does anyone else.
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If you're working at Tesla, SpaceX, Google, or any high-achieving company just to pay your mortgage, then:

a) You wouldn't have gotten past their interview process
b) If you did, you're working for the wrong company

I'd kill to work for those companies; for the work, for the challenge, and for, as someone once said, the chance to put a dent in the universe.

If Tesla misses their production targets, it won't be for lack of effort.

Do you want to sell sugar water for the rest of your life, or do you want to change the world?
�

Also, I reject the whole notion that the increased Model 3 scaling is a death march. The timeline for starting production of the car is exactly the same. Increasing the production ramp means hiring and training more workers and lining up more suppliers and equipment, but it's much more a question of money than people putting in a huge amount of hours.
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The timeline to production likely hasn't changed all that much, maybe by 3-4 months at most. The real difference will likely be the speed with which they purchase and set-up the parallel assembly lines. Rather than stretching that ramp-up to last from 2018 to 2020, they're going to make that start in 2017. The design, tooling, etc. to get ready for production isn't likely changing with these new plans. More likely they were much further along than we realized both at the reveal and now.
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EVNow said: ?

I know someone who worked for Elon directly. I for one won't be lining up to work for EM - since I have a family (the same reason the person I know quit working for EM).

There is another side to these death marches (sorry, "stretch goals"). This will force people to take shortcuts. If you have to do something by tomorrow - you are forced to make a decision irrespective of whether you have all the data or whether enough analysis has been done. The decisions made could be good - or not so good. This can come back to haunt Tesla later when they find design issues that delay ramp up.

I've been in death march projects - where things finally got so delayed that if we had realistic targets to start with, we would have delivered earlier.
Click to expand...

Yep, I have a relative who is an engineer at spacex. People who idealize these companies as great places to work are clueless. There is a reason that there are so many former tesla and spacex employees.

Not that cultural problems are unusual for startups. But Musk's companies have to improve if they want to retain more talent.
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electracity said: ?

Yep, I have a relative who is an engineer at spacex. People who idealize these companies as great places to work are clueless. There is a reason that there are so many former tesla and spacex employees.

Not that cultural problems are unusual for startups. But Musk's companies have to improve if they want to retain more talent.
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Many of them are great to have on your resume, and some are good for a quick influx of cash into your bank account...but the burnout is real.

I've worked with a few people who did the startup circuit on the West Coast, and then came East. Surprisingly, they've all liked it on the east coast more. the work load is less hectic, even if us "massholes" take some getting used to.
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Krugerrand said: ?

Your post says more about yourself than it does anyone else.
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You can think whatever you like, I have been pretty successful in my career and have always risen to a top rating in any job I have ever had.
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Krugerrand said: ?

Only true if you're a person who tends towards taking shortcuts in life. My daddy instilled in me as a young child, anything worth doing is worth doing right.
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The point was you can't do it right without enough time.

* Resources
* Scope
* Schedule

Pick 2.
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deonb said: ?

The point was you can't do it right without enough time.

* Resources
* Scope
* Schedule

Pick 2.
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I don't have to pick 2. I simply choose to do my best with what I have. That's 'my' point. People who assume others will automatically take the shortcut because a task is hard, again, says more about those assuming than it does those doing.
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Krugerrand said: ?

I don't have to pick 2. I simply choose to do my best with what I have. That's 'my' point. People who assume others will automatically take the shortcut because a task is hard, again, says more about those assuming than it does those doing.
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I want you to:

* Scope: Build a house
* Schedule: By tomorrow
* Resources: By yourself

When somebody tries to dictate three sides of an RSS triangle dictated to you, you rarely have any control over Schedule or Resources. So scope is the one that's going to suffer. Instead of building a house, you're going to build a tipi.

And that, is a shortcut.
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plankeye said: ?

Yeah, that's what I'm afraid of. It's definitely human nature to cut corners when pushed too hard. Happens all the time at my work.
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Don't blame the humans. It really isn't a human nature thing. It's an "optimizing within constraints" thing.
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voip-ninja said: ?

Executives that make seven figures can put on a good show about working 80 hours a week but it burns out the non workaholics pretty quickly.
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They also don't have to spend the rest of their hours worrying about "commoner" things like dinner, laundry, taxes. They can hire people to do that.
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deonb said: ?

I want you to:

* Scope: Build a house
* Schedule: By tomorrow
* Resources: By yourself

When somebody tries to dictate three sides of an RSS triangle dictated to you, you rarely have any control over Schedule or Resources. So scope is the one that's going to suffer. Instead of building a house, you're going to build a tipi.

And that, is a shortcut.
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I'm not sure what you guys are discussing any more, but it sure doesn't seem to be the 500K ramp this thread is supposed to be about. Don't have any control over resources? They just raised an additional 2 billion dollars to fund the increased production ramp (as everybody knew they were going to do).
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deonb said: ?

I want you to:

* Scope: Build a house
* Schedule: By tomorrow
* Resources: By yourself

When somebody tries to dictate three sides of an RSS triangle dictated to you, you rarely have any control over Schedule or Resources. So scope is the one that's going to suffer. Instead of building a house, you're going to build a tipi.

And that, is a shortcut.
Click to expand...

I could simply choose to have a prefab model home (thusly already built) put on a tractor trailer and hauled to the locale. That meets all the criteria.

More likely my choice is to tell you I can't do it and to wish you luck with your endeavor. See, I always get to make my own choice as do all the employees of Tesla. The default choice is not necessarily (nor even probably, unless you've got some proof) to choose a shortcut. I could also choose to tell you what I can deliver, then you get to choose if that's enough or not.
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The production timeline hasn't changed though...
the only thing that's changing is the scale.

There's no reason to think this'll create harmful shortcuts. It'll just mean more cash up front instead of over time.

One shortcut might mean multiple suppliers for a single part which isn't bad as long as quality standards are met.
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I think we have deviated from the original topic, but this is an interesting point. What it seems to come down to, in my mind, is whether we're really looking at something that's unrealistic. The actual timeline for release of the Model 3 is the same as it was before the reservations started pouring in.

As someone pointed out earlier, this is simply a problem of scaling, not design & engineering. The "build a house, by tomorrow, by yourself" is an unreasonable argument. There is no "by yourself" in this equation, and the "by tomorrow" is misleading because when you're not constrained by having to do it yourself, you can apply the proper amount of labor & money to the manufacturing process.

I agree that working burnout jobs at a company is no fun, no matter how motivated you are. But that's not what they're doing here; nor is it necessary for them to meet this 500k/year vehicle goal. Will it take a little more effort? Of course. All big projects require that. But is the biggest constraint one of hiring more labor and rolling out more manufacturing lines? Yes. Yes it is. And that is something that you CAN throw money at, instead of hours. And that is exactly what they're doing right now. See: diversification of battery supplier, hiring more manufacturing talent & project leadership, and raising capital.
�

I just hope they're successful at whatever path they pursue, and we get our cars sooner!
�

And here is where the money is coming from to finance the Ramp-Up: Tesla to sell 1.4 Billion in Shares for Expanded Production...
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deonb said: ?

The point was you can't do it right without enough time.

* Resources
* Scope
* Schedule

Pick 2.
Click to expand...

Seems that quality needs to be that equation - maybe that is part of scope.

If Senior Execs are highly compensated on schedule, that is what they will optimize for. Seems there was a big push to get the X out the door in Q3, they can deal with quality issues later if they need to.
�

I just watched the Forbes review of the MX. The carpet in the back was peeling off. I'm sorry, but that's just inexcusable for a $150K car. How hard is it to benchmark stuff like carpet with the established players (pick your favorites)?
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plankeye said: ?

I just watched the Forbes review of the MX. The carpet in the back was peeling off. I'm sorry, but that's just inexcusable for a $150K car. How hard is it to benchmark stuff like carpet with the established players (pick your favorites)?
Click to expand...

This will be a bit polarizing of a comment from me, but... I wonder what it would take for them to just drop the Model X and divert focus to the Model 3. Continue supporting owners of the X, but allow the Tesla team to be more focused. If they're having quality issues now, I wouldn't want a low volume car to get in the way of the one that actually makes or breaks the company.
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plankeye said: ?

I just watched the Forbes review of the MX. The carpet in the back was peeling off. I'm sorry, but that's just inexcusable for a $150K car. How hard is it to benchmark stuff like carpet with the established players (pick your favorites)?
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It is an electric car and very innovative, so with all the innovation you need to cut them some slack.

It is possible that the electric nature unexpectedly interfered with some static cling created by the carpet.

Tesla service is great, they will fix it.
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plankeye said: ?

I just watched the Forbes review of the MX.
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I'm not familiar with a Forbes review, but if you're talking about the Fortune review We Took the Tesla Model X for a Test Drive the reviewer is a complete moron and thinks most normal people would attempt to move the second row seats with a baby sitting in them. She also complained about not being able to fit a stroller which has been previously shown to fit just fine.

Personally, I think she was messing with the carpet and weather strip to get better shots...
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JeffK said: ?

I'm not familiar with a Forbes review, but if you're talking about the Fortune review We Took the Tesla Model X for a Test Drive the reviewer is a complete moron and thinks most normal people would attempt to move the second row seats with a baby sitting in them. She also complained about not being able to fit a stroller which has been previously shown to fit just fine.

Personally, I think she was messing with the carpet and weather strip to get better shots...
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Sorry, yes, it was Fortune. Got my F's mixed-up!

That could all very well be true, especially the first part. But I just hope they have some of this stuff ironed out before the M3 starts production. I know it's just carpet, but it could be other, more important things, like high-voltage electrical connections, stuff like that.
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Booga said: ?

This will be a bit polarizing of a comment from me, but... I wonder what it would take for them to just drop the Model X and divert focus to the Model 3. Continue supporting owners of the X, but allow the Tesla team to be more focused. If they're having quality issues now, I wouldn't want a low volume car to get in the way of the one that actually makes or breaks the company.
Click to expand...

Huh, That is a thought. Also may put some people in a tizzy I realize the X is a fantastic car but also has come with many problems,delays,bugs etc....And it seems to be continuing now with more and more orders. The X will have a ceiling though as a $150k family car. I can see Tesla maybe quietly making fewer X's if it helps move the M3 along.
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plankeye said: ?

I just watched the Forbes review of the MX. The carpet in the back was peeling off. I'm sorry, but that's just inexcusable for a $150K car. How hard is it to benchmark stuff like carpet with the established players (pick your favorites)?
Click to expand...

I just watched a review of a 150k Mercedes car, and at stoplights the car was shaking violently, noisy, was belching out noxious gasses, and had a significant delay between the time of hitting the acceleration pedal and acceleration actually starting. I'm sorry, but that's just inexcusable for a $150k car.

Electric drivetrains are the #1 luxury feature in any vehicle, period. Those who believe otherwise simply haven't driven an EV.
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Chopr147 said: ?

Huh, That is a thought. Also may put some people in a tizzy I realize the X is a fantastic car but also has come with many problems,delays,bugs etc....And it seems to be continuing now with more and more orders. The X will have a ceiling though as a $150k family car. I can see Tesla maybe quietly making fewer X's if it helps move the M3 along.
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That's an interesting approach that would effectively do the same thing - they can downplay it and keep production limited to allow for higher quality and focus staff on the Model 3 in that case. The price point of the X is so high that it had me wondering if this was really a good SUV or if they're better off producing something that more people can afford.
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Genshi said: ?

As someone pointed out earlier, this is simply a problem of scaling

And that is something that you CAN throw money at, instead of hours.
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Boy wouldn't it be great if it were that simple. But, it's not.

First, scaling up a complex manufacturing operation with a complex supply chain isn't simple. It's never simple. It's complicated, and fraught with problems.

Not only does Tesla have to dramatically scale, but their suppliers have to as well. So, if you are a supplier to Tesla, who's funding your production capacity expansion? Are you willing to take on the risk, financially, based on a forecast that seems almost unrealistic? It may not be just Tesla that needs to execute a capital raise. The supply chain has to be in lock-step, especially those suppliers who make unique components. I'm not talking about commodity items like tires, etc. I'm talking about companies who have to front end load the expense of designing new products and programs.

It's much more than throwing money.....
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182RG said: ?

Boy wouldn't it be great if it were that simple. But, it's not.

First, scaling up a complex manufacturing operation with a complex supply chain isn't simple. It's never simple. It's complicated, and fraught with problems.

Not only does Tesla have to dramatically scale, but their suppliers have to as well. So, if you are a supplier to Tesla, who's funding your production capacity expansion? Are you willing to take on the risk, financially, based on a forecast that seems almost unrealistic? It may not be just Tesla that needs to execute a capital raise. The supply chain has to be in lock-step, especially those suppliers who make unique components. I'm not talking about commodity items like tires, etc. I'm talking about companies who have to front end load the expense of designing new products and programs.

It's much more than throwing money.....
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Automotive suppliers are used to supplying orders for millions of vehicles. I'm pretty sure they will be able to handle Tesla's volume no problem. Even for non-commodity parts there's no reason why they aren't dealing with the same companies that supply all the other manufacturers. Sure it's complicated, but it's nothing unique to Tesla and other car companies do it all the time.
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182RG said: ?

Boy wouldn't it be great if it were that simple. But, it's not.

First, scaling up a complex manufacturing operation with a complex supply chain isn't simple. It's never simple. It's complicated, and fraught with problems.

Not only does Tesla have to dramatically scale, but their suppliers have to as well. So, if you are a supplier to Tesla, who's funding your production capacity expansion? Are you willing to take on the risk, financially, based on a forecast that seems almost unrealistic?
Click to expand...

It's the other way around. Right now it is suppliers who have to scale down their operations to accommodate Tesla to make parts for SnX. If they take on the task at all.
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teslamotorclub

Thứ Sáu, 2 tháng 12, 2016

Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020 part 2

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