Jun 24, 2016
N5329K It's worth mentioning that the whale oil industry collapsed very quickly when "rock oil" (petroleum) became cheap and abundant. People switched not because they wanted to save the whales. They switched because kerosene lamps were better, less smelly and cheaper. The same thing happened to kerosene when Mr Edison's bulb came along. People switched, not because the oil industry was dangerous and filthy (it was...gasoline was being poured into rivers as a waste product from the production of lamp oil), but because electric light was better.
The same thing happened to the first generation of electric cars (who knew the first speeding ticket issued in New York City was to an electric cab???). People switched to gasoline because it was "better"; gasoline cars were faster, made better range and, as petroleum went huge, cheaper by far.
So Tesla's road is clear enough, if not easy: they have to build cars people want because they are better than ICE cars. Not only greener.
Robin�
Jun 24, 2016
Model 3 Just to make clear: When I said that the electric propulsion was the main selling point of the cars Tesla make, it was not just by the green perspective. Electric propulsion IS better then ICE - less vibrations, less noise, less toxic, faster reaction, more effective, fewer moving parts +++, what's holding it back - both now and 100 years ago - is the batteries and the charging infrastructure.�
Jun 24, 2016
N5329K I agree. From a technical standpoint, from a first principles physics standpoint, from an appreciation for pure speed standpoint. Don't know about the "fewer moving parts" issue (Model X?). But this electric car has most of those things going for it, too. Now who's going to buy it?
Robin
�
Jun 24, 2016
22522 The main selling point is designers who care about customers.�
Jun 24, 2016
Wes! Build, build, and build, then release the cars as close to each other as possible to ensure many as possible get the full 7,500 credit.�
Jun 24, 2016
Model 3 The same persons that would buy it whatever that propulsive system it have + some that would only buy it because it is electric.
But instead answering what you implying here:
�
Jun 24, 2016
Garlan Garner Elon asked....Do you know what it takes to build a car?
My answer = No. However, if robots are doing the majority of the building it shouldn't really take long. Oh well, I'm jumping into this conversation totally uninformed about the process.�
Jun 25, 2016
Dan Detweiler Elon has always said that the hard part is building the machines that build the cars.
Dan�
Jul 3, 2016
Az_Rael It looks like Tesla missed their production targets again. They will need to get on top of this very quickly before Model 3 production starts or we will all be talking about "Tesla time" come 2018. I think they have been trying to get to 2000 cars/week for two quarters now and haven't made it yet.
Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries�
Jul 3, 2016
TaoJones From my ramblings in another thread (mostly concerning the Model 3) recently (below).
It's all possible. Just not probable. The thing is, let's say they ramp to 200,000 cars/year (4,000 cars/week by eoy 2018. That's still a staggering achievement relatively out of the gate for any company - but you can bet yer last share that the analysts (and the WSJ) will spin that achievement negatively for days and days because it's not 500,000 cars. Feh.
--- quoted and lightly edited text---
Let's be optimistic: ramp*** to 10,000 cars per week by year-end 2018, having worked up to 1,000 cars per week by early 2018.
That allows domestic employee/employee family [Model 3] deliveries* in Q4 2017, and a mix of the rest of the domestic employee cars along with the first CA owners' cars** in Q1 2018.
*Domestic employee [Model 3] orders swagged at 7,500.
**CA owners' [Model 3] reservations swagged at 3% of 400,000 so 12,000.
*** ramp swag (attained by eoq):
2018Q1 1K/wk (Model 3)
2018Q2 2K/wk (Model 3)
2018Q3 4K/wk (Model 3)
2018Q4 10K/wk (total production)�
Jul 3, 2016
Troy916 Per Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA) they are currently just shy of 2000/week and expect to be at 2400/wk by the end of 2016Q4. Given a simpler to construct vehicle, one would expect the eventual model 3 rate to be higher. If they start building the model 3 in 2017Q3, that gives them 13+ weeks to get the rate up to 2400+ for the beginning of 2018Q1.�
Jul 3, 2016
JeffK Correction... production goals were met just fine. Delivery goals were missed due to cars in transit to their delivery locations.�
Jul 3, 2016
Garlan Garner Is there anyone in there that understands what the problem in Tesla is?
I keep hearing from Tesla / Elon that they have a goal to to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.
How can we tell Tesla that people are trying to help them with their mission statement. We are buying cars and we are ordering cars....however you can't produce them fast enough.
The MS has been out for a while. I'm thinking that there shouldn't be an issue with training the robots and people for that car.�
Jul 3, 2016
JeffK There had been a shortage in Q1, Q2 had all the parts and they produced good numbers. They anticipated delivering 17,000 vehicles and at the end of Q2 plus a few days will be nearly 17,000 deliveries. Transit to Asia and Europe takes time and that's unavoidable. Just because at the midnight on the last day of Q2 those vehicles hadn't been delivered because they're on a ship shouldn't make people lose faith.
Production was higher in Q2 than Q1 and will be higher still in Q3.�
Jul 4, 2016
Az_Rael OK, they got above 17,000 produced but they still haven't made the magic 2000/week they have been trying to get to for several quarters. They were "just under".
And it was another quarter with a mad rush to get cars out at the end. It will be nice when they can settle in to steady rate increases. It just seems like they are bad at setting public goals. Would be better to under promise and over deliver.�
Jul 4, 2016
jkk_ And those mad rushes can't be good from quality standpoint.�
Jul 4, 2016
Jleafs The problem is that large scale manufacturing is hard. And I'm guessing that it gets harder when you're making complex machines that people's lives depend on, cost $100,00, and are supposed to last for years.
The S has not been out for "a while", it has barely been 4 years, and they've made somewhere in the neighbourhood of 150K cars. That is nothing compared to the decades of experience and millions of cars produced by other automakers.�
Jul 4, 2016
Garlan Garner My point is this: The robots that make Tesla MS's have been programed for an eternity ( 4 years or so ). In other words...the "How to make an MS" question has been answered. There is no more design, nor programing robots necessary. I don't understand how or why they just can't ramp up production.�
Jul 4, 2016
N5329K Probably because their problems are not strictly production-related, but more systemic. Just like you can't put more water through clogged pipes by turning up the tap. The entire system needs to be plumbed and ready for the volume- including delivery- and apparently it isn't yet.
Robin�
Jul 4, 2016
cronosx This is just your opinion, you can change how it's done, just move the robot, optimize timing etc ( my job it's been this for a some years, just non in automovie industries ) and i've seend line doubling the production whitout big change, and with big change triple the production.
Since Elon stated that he see many point where he can improve thing, i would think that this is the case.
And we are talking about a huge line, with many robot ( and robot can be greatly customized and replaced for improve things, unlike other machine ), this at robot as people, you can always change you mind of how it's better to build the car, you can double the robot in the same line, just think like "one robot does the left side, the other the right side" while before there was only one robot, or you can place the seat while mounting the brake, things like that could greatly improve the overall line speed
Then just by changing something you can greatly reduce the "fault" where a car came out and has to be fixed ( this reduce the line speed ) and again you are improving the production.. i remember one time when simply dumping bad nails we got a +30% production.
If you can't conceive how this could be archived simply means that you havent put you hands on production line.�
Jul 4, 2016
N5329K Every manufacturer has to define for itself what's "good enough." As buyers, we want 100% on time and on quality. A company that insists on 100% will spend its time, energy and resources in refining and inspecting, not delivering. A company that doesn't care just counts units and forgets about good enough. British Leyland in the 1970's comes to mind. And when GM ran NUMMI (what's now Tesla Fremont), that was their approach, too. We see how that ended.
Tesla has to find the right balance between quality and delivery. Too many units at too low quality and things come crashing down. Too few units at too high a quality works for fine art or Swiss watches, but not cars (unless you're making them for a tiny, tiny audience). Naturally, tiny audiences don't change history, and that's what Mr. Musk intends to do.
It's no wonder a very young company like Tesla is still hunting for that sweet spot.
Robin�
Jul 4, 2016
JeffK Their sweet spot is a moving target. With production lines it's entirely possible to increase throughput and quality at the same time. I don't think Tesla is going to settle for "good enough" in a culture of continual improvement.�
Jul 4, 2016
N5329K It's definitely possible. For Tesla to survive, it's also mandatory.
Robin�
Jul 4, 2016
Jleafs "How to make an MS", i.e. a singular vehicle, is a totally different question than how to make 1,000 or 10,000 or 1,000,000. It's not simply a matter of robots that need to be programmed, it's a complex process of supply management, financing, human resources, logistics, quality control, etc. etc.
Tesla obviously did not start out of the gate 4 years ago with a fully formed, perfected, and scaleable production process and they're not there yet 4 years later, either. Of course it's hard, if it was easy, then anybody could've done it by now.�
Jul 4, 2016
Garlan Garner Its not my opinion that they have been making the MS for years now. Its a fact
Its not my opinion that the standard design of the MS is done. Its a fact
Its not my opinion that there is nothing more to engineer. Its done. Its a fact.
All Tesla has to do now is repeat success. The MS is a success. If robots are the predominant thing putting the MS together....then there has to be another issue. ( lack of parts/ paint/ slow delivery/ not enough robots...etc. )
If Tesla is running robots 24/7 ( production ) , then I don't know why they are running into delivery issues. It has to be a hang up after production.�
Jul 4, 2016
Garlan Garner I"m not sure its a moving target. They haven't caught the target yet. They are vastly behind the target - behind their own target. It affects the stock price.
In other words, Tesla knows that if it makes 2000 MS's next week....they will still be behind. They know what the orders are...however they can't fulfill them. The question I have is why? Does anyone know....or are we going to keep speculation about what could possibly be the problem?�
Jul 4, 2016
Garlan Garner Thanks. After reading the following article, the problem is not production. The robots must be working well.
Looks like the problem is delivery. In other words...it sounds like Tesla has cars sitting somewhere, however have a problem getting them delivered on time. This is the first paragraph of the article.
Tesla issued its Q2 production and delivery numbers, indicating that the company produced 20 percent more cars this quarter than the previous however fell short in delivering the vehicles to customers.
Can anyone confirm the facts? Q2, 18,345 cars produced - only 14,370 delivered.
4000 cars must be sitting in a lot somewhere.
Tesla increases Q2 production by 20% but falls short of deliveries�
Jul 4, 2016
EinSV Hi Garlan,
Tesla produced 18,345 vehicles in Q2 and 15,510 in Q1, which is about an 18.2 percent increase in production. I expect the reason deliveries lagged is that Tesla reports that almost half of its production was in June, so many of those vehicles were still in transit on June 30, including overseas and to the East Coast.�
Jul 4, 2016
Garlan Garner I agree, but the stockholders don't care where the cars are. They missed the deliveries target. Tesla promised 17,000 deliveries to it's investors.
They made the production target, however they can't deliver.... I now wonder why. Maybe its the overseas car deliveries..... I don't know. As a regular person....I don't care, however as a stock holder...I do care.�
Jul 4, 2016
EinSV I was just responding to your question and to your statement that undelivered cars might be sitting on a lot somewhere. Some of them are likely in transit, and others may now be on a lot waiting to be picked up by customers.
And I agree that some investors may focus on delivery numbers rather than production numbers -- I guess we will find out soon enough.�
Jul 4, 2016
Garlan Garner Yep!�
Jul 4, 2016
cronosx Since it seems you don't understanrd..just put in the pratical matter, if you have to make 5 holes, you can use a driller and make 1 hole at time, this would accomplish the task, the robot know how to do it, all done.
So what? this doesn't mean that i can make the drilling time 1/5, 1 drill time 10 second? time to move from one drilling position to another 1 sec? 10 sec * 5 + 1 sec * 4 -> 54 sec
But if i use 5 driller pre-positioned i kill the 1 sec*4 for positioning the driller, and since i do all the drilling at the same time, it doesn't took 54 second, it took 10 second.
So i changed my production rate from 54second piece to 10second piece. thus multiplying my production of a factor of 5.4. wich means that if i was building 66pieces in 1h, now i produce 360 piece in 1h, no change in desing or other. the piece it's the same. i've only changed the way the drilling line works.
Yes, i knew how to drill 5 holes, but i didn't it in a good way, i just did it. it's not the same thing.
Now put this in a weekly perspective, 66piece in 1h, 8h days, 5 days -> 2640 piece in a week produced in the last week
It took me 4 days to change the production line, so i've done 0 pieces while working on changing the production line -> i've worked only 1 days, but i've done it with the new production line, so 360 piece * 8 -> 2880 piece in a week
But the next week i'll producte 2880*5 -> 14400 piece, and if you just look at my previus week production you can say "meeh.. you produced only a small fraction more, and you costed me 4 days of work for what?", you just didn't see the big picture.
Now, this is an extreme case where there is a huge improvemenet, but the thing is, in a big production line you just have to tweak every single machinge to get maybe 10car/h more and it cost you maybe weeks of work.
This is not what you see on the outside, you just see a serius of falling/incresing in the production and not that in the next years you can produce maybe 2x the number of car you made the last years, maybe with less men on the line�
Jul 4, 2016
zenmaster ?�
Jul 5, 2016
Model 3 #1.
Sure. But they have not been producing it in the exact same way all this time. Its a fact.
#2.
The basic design is done, true. But not all the designs. Just a few month ago it was a big "facelift" of the design, and Elon have said that the make numerous changes to the car etch week. Its a fact.
#3.
GOTO #2�
Jul 5, 2016
Az_Rael I wonder if the constant tweaking of the MS (and presumably the MX) design is one of the factors in the difficulty with the production ramp ups.
If they were more like a traditional auto manufacturer, they would make the same car for ~1 year before making any changes (barring safety recalls, etc). They would then incorporate all the minor updates into the yearly upgrade, a minor refresh every 2 or 3 years and a major refresh every 5 or so. This does allow the traditional auto makers to really stamp out cars as fast as they can since the supply chains, tooling, etc are all up and running for a longer period of time before changes are made.
If they constantly tweak the Model 3 just like they do the S and X, then those high production rates they are projecting are going to be extremely difficult to obtain.�
Jul 5, 2016
Model 3 Probably.
I don't think they will. It is reasonable to do that as a new manufacture and/or with a new product. So they may do it the first months on the Model 3, and then just if it is some serious problems that needs to be fixed. And this is also hinted to by Elon. First starts delivery near the factory so any problems could be detected fast and be fixed in production. Then wait with new "cow bells" (and probably fixes) until next edition. But I still think they will not apply to the normal "model year", but maybe release new editions every 6 month or so?
I do expect to get 2018� Model 3
�
Jul 5, 2016
Burnardr The production lines were designed to produce both cars right? If one line is down to fix X issues, Tesla is effectively at half capacity until it's fixed. Then they have to make those same changes to the other line at some point to maintain manufacturing flexibility.�
Jul 5, 2016
ohmman And this is the story every quarter for Tesla. It's like they forget the pace, then someone shows them a calendar, and they freak out. "End of quarter! Production line up to 11!"
Quality for end of quarter vehicles is generally lower as a result of the rush, as well.�
Jul 5, 2016
JeffK Is this quantifiable or speculation I wonder? It makes sense that when humans are stressed or tired they make mistakes in judgement yet the robots don't get tired. err "machines that make machines"
If this quantifiable then maybe it can be improved.�
Jul 5, 2016
N5329K This was a problem with Soviet production, too. When quota time came around, they drove screws with hammers to meet their quota number. They called it "storming." Back in the USSR, "consumers" were happy to get whatever they could, even if they knew that a quota rush TV might catch fire, or a stormed washing machine might need a few tweaks before it would actually work.
Expectations have changed.
Robin�
Jul 5, 2016
ohmman It's anecdotal, but my feeling is that it could be quantifiable if there were metrics. It's difficult to collect data to validate my statement, though, so that probably won't happen anytime soon. This forum has quite a bit of discussion in both the Model S and X forums about it. I also have two quarter end cars.. cough.
I requested that my X delivery be delayed so that I didn't receive a quarter end car. They did delay it, but only a few days. It was still a March build - and it has required a bit of tweaking. There are still outstanding issues with the doors, interior panels, windshield, etc. Sounds like the April deliveries didn't run into as many problems.
My guess as to why this might be occurring is not that the robots are "tired". It's that the QC/QA team has to lower standards in order to reach the production levels demanded by management (which in turn are demanded by shareholders).�
Jul 5, 2016
JeffK At 3:00 AM on Friday, April 29th, 2016, the first "flawless" Model X rolled off the factory line... You needed a May car�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner The minor tweaks you are talking about in each of your responses is negligible to production. 90% of the changes in my MS has been software - aside from the front fascia.
There really hasn't been any meaningful production hardware changes since 2013.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner Name the tweaks.
You guys are having weird problems with your MS's. Door panels and windshields?
Sounds like quality control issues.
Production, Quality Control, Production, Design, Delivery, etc. are all part of Tesla, however they are clear and distinct departments.�
Jul 5, 2016
JeffK Here's a list (doesn't cover the 2016 changes)
Tesla Model S Electric Car: Changes From 2012 Through 2015 (UPDATED)�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner I'm not talking about improvement type changes. I'm talking about hardware errors that slow down production.�
Jul 5, 2016
Az_Rael Except all those battery changes 60, 70, 85, 90, 75. All of those are hardware changes that required new batteries to be designed and ramped up. Sure, installing them into the car probably wasn't much different, but the battery factory had to change all its tooling, etc.�
Jul 5, 2016
JeffK In addition to improvement changes in the car itself which require retooling, there are production level changes that happen constantly in a kaizen type continual improvement environment. They've mentioned that besides the car itself, there're a lot of technologies and room for improvement that can go into the manufacturing process to make production faster and have better quality.
When you ask owners of the older Model S to compare their cars to the newer Model S (even before the new 2016 model) the common response is that they notice the difference in build quality. The trend for the Model S is increased production rate and increased quality but achieving both these things involves a fair amount of work.
In 2015 Elon said
�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner Yes, I understand, but that has nothing to do with the topic at hand or any point that I'm making.
The reason that Tesla won't be able to provide their M3 deliveries on time is the subject matter. Production is not holding up deliveries. Delivery is holding up delivery. .�
Jul 5, 2016
Az_Rael They are related, though. Deliveries are held up because production ramped up so late in the quarter.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner What? That makes no sense. Production and Deliveries are 2 totally different things. Tesla produced 14K cars and could only deliver 10K. I don't care when the production took place....they didn't cause Deliveries to fail.
I've posted links.
Tesla increases Q2 production by 20% but falls short of deliveries
Production is much better. Tesla has mainly fallen short of deliveries by what they posted on wall street. There are at least 4 thousand Teslas sitting somewhere and they can't seem to deliver them.�
Jul 5, 2016
JeffK They are sitting on a boat to Asia and Europe. They certainly aren't sitting at the factory. Transit over the Ocean takes time and that's unavoidable with production so late. The transit time simply overlapped when the quarter ended.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner Do you have a link? I am a shareholder. I could care less where the cars are. Tesla said that they will deliver 17K cars. And they didn't. Sooooo..... therefore..... the stock price goes down. Investors don't care about excuses.
You have a company like chevy that says .... We will deliver 500K cars..... and they do.
Now you have Tesla say that they will deliver 17K cars in the same timeframe...... and they don't.
It does not matter if the cars are on a boat or in outerspace. They should have delivered the cars or not made the promise / projection to the investors.�
Jul 5, 2016
Az_Rael From your own link: "Tesla added that half it saw a huge production ramp towards the end of Q2 resulting in half of the quarter�s production occurring in the final four weeks"
So fully HALF of the cars were produced in the final four weeks. So it then follows that deliveries will be delayed because the cars weren't even finished until the final 4 weeks of the quarter.
They also stated all the missing deliveries were "in transit" in your link. So they aren't sitting at the factory waiting to be delivered, they are on trucks/boats, etc.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner Wait...I see what you are saying.�
Jul 5, 2016
Jleafs Sure, but very inter-related departments that require a great deal of coordination and communication to successfully work as a whole.
Design choices may cause supplier issues, which in turn affects production rate if parts are short (see Model X). Poor production processes can increase the burden on quality control, which may increase recalls which in turn affects cash flow and expansion financing, and so on and so on - everything affects everything.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner What I wanted were the facts. I have them now. I was wondering who's fault these delayed deliveries were.�
Jul 5, 2016
jkk_ Tesla's. I'm sure this will be quite unpopular statement but it is their responsibility to manage their pipelines in such a fashion that they can meet their targets. Both quality and timing targets. Quality part we'll have to wait for the customers receive their products but history isn't too promising. Timing seems to have failed.�
Jul 5, 2016
ohmman We should probably steer this back to Model 3. There's an investor section here on TMC that is a great place to discuss the production shortfall as it pertains to TSLA.�
Jul 5, 2016
Model 3 What I was talking about was - pr. the Elon quote JeffK made - about hardware changes. The software changes was not the topic.
So no new better rear DU? No dual motors? No new batteries? No new panoramic roof? No "NG seats"? No autopilot hardware? ... just to mention a few.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner You still aren't getting it. You are just arguing.�
Jul 5, 2016
grashelm Wow do you really have 934 posts since Apr 27? Impressive!�
Jul 5, 2016
JeffK I have a really bad OCD problem and I'm pretty opinionated (logically based opinions for the most part).
I've loved and dreamed about electric cars since I was little. The thought that I'll finally be able to afford one is terribly exciting. The very idea that Tesla is actually going to ramp up production to 500,000 cars in 2018 or even if it takes until 2019, whatever. It means that during my lifetime I'll see safe, awesome, electric cars on the road (besides all the Model Ss I see now everyday).
...But seriously the OCD thing is a problem, I should get help.�
Jul 5, 2016
grashelm I understand and share your enthusiasm. I on the other hand have a laziness problem...I contemplate responding to far more posts than I actually do.�
Jul 5, 2016
Garlan Garner We all should get a support group.
I suppose the group is this forum.�
Jul 6, 2016
Model 3 Ok. Then tell me what I'm not "getting"?
I refuted your assertion:
with examples of meaningful production hardware changes since 2013 that would effect the production-line when the changes is done (and that is what we are talking about?)
And I refuted you assertion that I was talking about software changes, something I know I did not. I even pointed to the Elon quote JeffK gave and that I was referring to about the same changes.
Whatever replies like this I'm now responding to does not furthering the debate, so unless I get some meaningful replies it's EOD from me.�
Jul 6, 2016
Jleafs That is exactly right, as obvious as it may sound. Any delays are the responsibility of Tesla as a whole. To say it's the fault of department X or Y based off a news article is a simplistic understanding of "facts" that actually provide very little insight.�
Jul 6, 2016
Garlan Garner That's why I'm asking the question in the forum. Maybe the replies would provide some more intricate insight.�
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