Jun 18, 2013
mitch672 I have 2 theories:
#1 Teslas "Swapper" isn't actually removing the battery pack, but plugging into direct DC ports on the rear of the pack (next to where the motor / inverter plugs in), then they've come up with some kind of "Hyper charger" that needs a direct connection to the pack, because the current connector cannot handle the current. They may use some kind of DC battery bank and equipment to dump the charge in very quickly, the robot unplugs the connection and you drive off.
#2 if Tesla does actually have a battery swapping robot, they have something compelling to swap in, and make it worthwhile, such as the new metal air / lithium combo 500 mile range pack.
Btw, I think #1 is more likely, since there is far less mechanical complexity involved, and they are not moving packs around, just electrons.�
Jun 18, 2013
gameon wow after all battery swapping announcement.
I remember during shareholder meeting he denied this,when someone ask him about it (specifically that investor mention about battery swapping..forgot the details)�
Jun 18, 2013
toastypasta Elon Musk ?@elonmusk15m
Battery pack swap works with all Tesla Model S cars, past and present. It was always there.�
Jun 18, 2013
moltenfire Okay, so it's always been under our nose. Why is he letting the bag out now? Could it be because he's forced to, after the file name on the email invite already gave it away?�
Jun 18, 2013
fastcars Right now, every announcement looks like towards creating buzz (marketing etc..) and boosting stock market :smile:�
Jun 18, 2013
Stoneymonster He didn't really deny it, it was more clear he was trying not to answer given they had something to show later in the month.�
Jun 18, 2013
Rla It has been a known fact that the battery was designed to be swappable.
cfr Beta event: Elon says that the battery is installed by a robot in the factory, in under a minute.
and Stanford webinar with Dave Duff - skip to after 1:00:00, 4 guys swapping a battery in under 10 minutes.
Stanford Seminar - Dave Duff, Telsa Motors - YouTube
So this will just be the first public and live demonstration.
Now in order for the announcement not to backfire or even be a non-event, they either need to announce a business model that will go with it or...
I'm blissfully speculating that all batteries are the same capacity, they are all 85kWh and they are just being limited by the software of the car.
This would greatly increase the value of any Model S, and simplify any future logistics for possible swapping stations.
edit: actually is there any official evidence about Tesla talking about how many cells a 60kWh pack has. I can only remember the statement of a 85 kWh pack having "more than 7000" cells. And a thread here from some clever reverse 'engineering' the number of cells for the 60 pack.�
Jun 18, 2013
aznt1217 Can't we just weigh the cars... the heavier one is the 85kWh pack? Interestingly enough there is only 1 weight listed on the Tesla Motors site.
�
Jun 18, 2013
Soflason This article discusses June 20th a bit:
Elon Musk confirms Tesla Model S battery swaps, demo coming this week
In this article, they mention that: "He [Elon] also tweeted that Better Place founder Shai Agassi 'actually got the idea from a visit to Tesla. The idea is obvious (many things allow battery swap), but the technology is not.'"
And after watching this timed demo on pack swap (using the old Better Place approach), it's hard to imagine Tesla hasn't improved on it. Even without much improvement, this swap is fast.
�
Jun 18, 2013
aznt1217 Never seen that tech demo before. I just knew that it was similar to going into something like a car wash. I think that's the bothersome part, the fact that this method is capitally intensive. Hopefully Elon has figured out a way to get this thing done cheaply.
�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb Well, Elon just mentioned $50m to $100m to do this across the country (meaning at the 200 SuperCharger locations).
So that's $250k to $500k per location. I think it's a little cheaper than Better Place but not by a huge margin.�
Jun 18, 2013
Palpatine I saw that demo a few years ago when Better Place was promoting this scam. It was immediately obvious that it would never scale and be crazy expensive.
- - - Updated - - -
Even at that price to Tesla, there are the issues of price to a Model S owner. And this entire battery swap scheme is competing with a free Supercharger at the same location. So what would you be willing to pay for battery swap?
Here are questions I want to here answers to during the Q&A:
1) What does it cost?
2) Is it a per use fee?
3) Is it a subscription?
4) Is there a long term contract associated with participating in the battery swap scheme?
5) Will there also be a free Supercharger at each Battery Swap location?
6) Does Tesla get free/cheap rent for a battery swap location? or does Tesla have to buy the land and build buildings?
7) Is the process 100% fully automated or does Tesla have to employ staff to be on site at a battery swap station?
8) What happens if there is an error in the middle of the process? Will Tesla have a loaner Model S for customers to use to continue their trip?�
Jun 18, 2013
hershey101 Can you post the email invite on the fourms for those of us who didn't get it/aren't attending the event?�
Jun 18, 2013
aznt1217 battery swapping confirmed - no more announcement
post #8�
Jun 18, 2013
MikeC Okay, so if this is at the design studio, it doesn't require much infrastructure unless they built something since I was there last week. I think maybe it is a mobile swapper, like a special flatbed, that can switch it out quickly. Benefits: ZEV credit, solve the rent/overhead problem, help out with any Broders, and enable rangers to do anything necessary remotely.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb It's not mobile. It will be co-locates with SuperChargers. See Elons Reuters interview today on:
battery swapping confirmed - no more announcement - Page 9
Post #90�
Jun 18, 2013
Palpatine He said that they are NOT rolling out stations unless there is customer demand for it.
At 23 min 05 sec he basically said it will only be demand driven.
So if there are enough suckers willing to pay for a fast swap compared to the free Supercharger, then Tesla will spend the roughly $500,000 to install a swap station.
http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=share&cid=1090140&shareToken=MzoyNmJlOWFiMC01MzMxLTRjMTYtYmRlZS05MjNlMWFhZjgwZmM%3D�
Jun 18, 2013
Citizen-T I've been talking about this for a few days on my battery swap is coming thread, but for those that haven't read it: I suspect that the cost to participate in the battery swap program is the exact same fee previously announced for the battery replacement program. That is to say that the battery replacement program IS the battery swap program.
See the existing thread for details.
Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk HD�
Jun 18, 2013
Palpatine Great, that will make it easy to avoid. My big concern is that they might try to bake the battery swap scheme into the price of the car and force everyone to subsidize it.�
Jun 18, 2013
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Volume. A swap station can handle more cars. So:
- You put them in busy Supercharger areas in place of adding multiple spaces
- You put them in urban areas where space and charging are at a premium
-
-�
Jun 18, 2013
ShortSlaver You and I have been the most vocal "meh" voice around battery swapping. I think you can agree that as a demo it's great as it shows potential and if there is a demand they will do it - that's great. I'm happy they aren't rushing into some contrived battery swapping strategy.
We don't need the Apple Cube here.
�
Jun 18, 2013
Curt Renz A huge market for battery swaps will be taxi companies. They run their cars in two or three shifts, which limits the time for refueling. Fuel is their big cost and the price would plummet, if they had a fleet of electric cars with available battery swaps. They could have the swap stations in their own garages and simply circulate their own batteries. It may also result in lower taxi fares, which would increase the demand for taxi rides and therefore a need for more taxies. It's a big win for the taxi companies, their passengers and Tesla Motors.�
Jun 18, 2013
Palpatine I would agree with that. Even Apple had their dud products. Tesla and Elon have made their share of foolish moves in the past.
Luckily they knew when to throw in the towel and cancelled items that make no sense, such as the PHEV version of the Model S (similar to Fisker/Volt)
Also they cancelled the 40 kwh Model S, which funny enough is the version of the Model S that might actually have had the most need for the battery swap because of the low range.
My guess is that when it comes down to paying for a battery swap, people won't pay the fee/subscription and just use the free Supercharger.
The question boils down to this: 5 minutes vs 15-20 minutes how many will pay $50 to $100 for a swap to save 10-15 minutes?
Then Tesla will realize that there just isn't enough demand to justify the $500,000 investment for a swap station or the ongoing staffing/support/maintenance that goes along with a battery swap station.
- - - Updated - - -
Yeah, as soon as taxi companies start buying $80,000 cars then I guess you might have something there.
On the other hand, taxis also spend a lot of time waiting at hotels or airports waiting for their next fare. So maybe if there were taxi companies using EVs, they would strategically locate those rechargers where taxis wait for fares.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb At $500k per swap station and $20k per battery, why not just buy 5 to 10 extra taxis and rotate them?�
Jun 18, 2013
ShortSlaver I believe the whole thing is just a dog and pony show to make people gossip and create some "gee whiz" effect - which is great. Lets face it, the public needs as much education on EV's as anything. This concept, although not economically viable right now, gives a lot of people peace of mind in terms of maintenance, breakdowns on the road, repairs and automobile lifetime. It makes buying a used Tesla a good idea as the only real risk is the battery which can be replaced near cost. Labor cost is almost null. Imagine dropping a new block in your car - that would be thousands.
I think it's a helpful demo showing the strengths of the car. I'm happy Tesla isn't going whole hog on some swapping strategy as I'm sure you are too. That would be silly.
I have to keep reminding myself - Elon Musk knows what he's doing. He isn't perfect, but he knows more about this game than me. I'm just a humble investor.�
Jun 18, 2013
kenliles
I think that might be the case as well, but it doesn't come for free. The demo and commitment of capability in itself confers to the consumer that you may not be satisfied enough with the speed of SuperCharging. In other words a tacit admission that charging may never achieve the speed of ICE refill. I'm not of the opinion this is a net positive to the consumer, even with an impressive demo�
Jun 18, 2013
markb1 I don't think this is a fair comparison. The most energy you can possibly get in a 20 minute charge at 120kW is 40kWh. The most you can get from a 5 minute battery swap is 85kWh. If you want that much from a super charger, it might take an hour due to taper off.�
Jun 18, 2013
serkol What if the swap station costs $250k, and the battery costs $15k, and they need 10 extra batteries to have time to charge them in time for the next swap? That would come $250k + $150k per 50 cars = $8k extra investment per a $80k = 10%. Would you approve that?
Yes, if there's a supercharger in their garage, they can have 10 extra taxis and rotate them. Or they can have a swap station and 10 extra batteries. I don't know for sure what's better.�
Jun 18, 2013
ShortSlaver I'm more interested in the resale, maintenance and upgrade capability than the charging comparison.
I think it's a nice thing for that case and charging serves an entirely different case.�
Jun 18, 2013
brianman That is very much not what he said.�
Jun 18, 2013
Palpatine It is fairly clear that the typical person pulling into a Supercharger / Battery Swap station is NOT arriving at that location with a battery at empty on the final electrons.
The typical person likely has some percentage of battery charge in the pack. So it works both ways. Most people are just going to be topping off to 80%, then moving on with their trip.
For me, my nearest 3 superchargers (3 different directions) will be 65 miles, 80 miles and 107 miles away. So I will be arriving with well above a 50% charge when I plug into a Supercharger. So what amount of time would I be there on a Supercharger? 10 minutes? It depends on my ultimate destination. So my choice would be:
a) free supercharger for 10-15 minutes (while I use the restroom, get a drink)
or
b) expensive battery swap in 2 minutes (then pull into a parking space to use a restroom, get a drink, still spending 10-15 min overall at that location)
Yeah, that is a tough choice to make.
When you also consider that:
Only 2% of car trips are more than 50 miles.
Only 1% of car trips are more than 70 miles.
The number of car trips that are 200 miles? About 0.1%
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1071688_95-of-all-trips-could-be-made-in-electric-cars-says-study
So with that in mind, who exactly is going to foot the bill for this concept? The 0.1% of users? Someone has to pay that bill of $100 million to get the swap stations out there, plus staffing/maintenance/support, battery consumption, etc. This is not just a cost for 85 kwh of electricity. I would be shocked if the real cost is anywhere close to "$100" for a swap. The real cost to recover the capital investment and pay for ongoing support is likely way more than $100 per swap.�
Jun 18, 2013
austinEV I renounced that theory a few days ago. And yeah, it was speculation time.�
Jun 18, 2013
DaveT I'm fairly convinced of the same thing. The battery replacement program is the battery swap program.
Here's how it works:
You pay $12k now for a new battery in 8 years but you get free battery swap (unlimited) during that 8 years.
To make it even more compelling to owners Tesla could say:
You pay $12k for a new longer-range-than-your-original battery in 8 years (60kwh owners will get a 85kwh battery and 85kwh owners will get a 110kwh battery), plus you get free battery swapping for those 8 years.
If they did that, I think it would attract a lot of interest from owners and they could possibly sign up 25% of owners.
If they just did $12k for a new same-as-your-original battery and free battery swapping, I don't see more than 10-15% of owners signing up for that. It just isn't as compelling as getting a bigger-than-your-original battery in 8 years.
If they offered a size up in battery for the 8-year replacement, then that would attract a lot more owners and that would be added income where they could use as CapEx to roll out the swap stations at the Supercharger locations.
Here are the rough revenues
2013 - 25% sign up for $12k option out of 15k new U.S. owners = $45m
2014 - 25% sign up for $12k option out of 15k new U.S. owners = $45m
2015 - 25% sign up for $12k option out of 25k new U.S. owners (inc model X)= $75m
You have $165 million in revenue for just the first 3 years in the U.S. and this would more-than-enough pay for the complete battery swap rollout (Elon today in the Reuters interview estimated $50-100m for battery swap rollout nationwide). Even if 15% of people sign up you'll still have $99m in revenue in the first 3 years (this would cover entire U.S. battery swap rollout according to Elon's estimates given today). If 10% owners sign up you'll have $66m in 3 years (this would be fine because Tesla would roll out battery swap slower than the Supercharger stations and could take 3-5 years to complete battery swap roll out).
In terms of how they could offer a bigger-than-your-original battery in 8 years:
Elon has said in a previous talk that they're seeing at least a 10% decrease in battery pack costs every year (I think this was at the 2012 shareholder meeting). This means in 7 years the battery pack will be 1/2 as expensive as now. Also at the end of 8 years you give them your old pack which they can then retrofit (they might just need to change out the cells) as a refurbished unit. If they can make a 110kwh battery pack for $14k ($100/kwh x 110kwh = $11k plus $3k in pack expenses) in 8 years and then if they realize 2k of savings from the battery pack you give them, then that costs Tesla $12000. Basically it's the cost of what they received 8 years earlier, and they chose to use that money to roll out CapEx with battery swap stations that would increase future demand of a pre-paid battery replacement (and free swap) program. So it would be a good investment of their money to basically generate a growing future revenue source.
The point of all this is that Elon knows that he needs to offer a compelling value to owners for battery swap to make sense. And I think he could offer that.
1. $12000 for a bigger-than-your-original battery in 8 years with free swapping during that time.
2. Battery swaps are done at Supercharger stations in under a minute.
3. You can do unlimited number of battery swaps in the program.
4. This is an option. If you don't want it, you don't have to order it.
5. To do your final swap at the end of the 8 years, just go to a Service Center and they're have a new battery ready for you in their swap station for you.
6. At the end of 8 years, you can choose to renew your battery replacement (and free swapping) program for a fee. It would give you another new better-than-original battery in 8 years and free swapping during that time. The fee would be much lower than the $12000 that it costs today because battery costs would be much lower than. So maybe $6k-8k to renew.
Last thing is that Elon Musk in the Reuters interview said that Shai Agassi (Better Place) was good at marketing but not good in technology and didn't execute swapping well. This leads me to believe that Tesla's technology of battery swap will be far superior than what Better Place rolled out. It will be quicker and cheaper to deploy.
Update 1: Some people have shared that there's no way to pay for the battery replacement program that was previously announced. I'm thinking (along with others) that this is because there are more details (ie., battery swap for free) to be announced on June 20th. Is Tesla Still offering the battery replacement option?
Update 2: Here's the link to my original thoughts on the 5th announcement, June 20th Speculation - Page 11
Update 3: "Tesla will first test the swap program in high-traffic corridors between Los Angeles and San Francisco as well in the Washington-New York-Boston region." - Reuters�
Jun 18, 2013
Curt Renz Taxi companies are businesses and must consider the full cost over the lifetime of owning a car. Obviously, the fuel is much cheaper with a Tesla. So is maintenance with a simple electric motor and braking mainly done by taking one's foot off the accelerator and sending energy back to the battery. Those key components should be quite long lasting. The same for the body which is composed of non-rusting aluminum rather than steel. Resale value should be quite high. Even if the battery is degraded, future replacements for the used car owner are likely to be more powerful yet cheaper.
Your hotel and airport recharging idea makes sense with a Supercharger type setup. But it's at the taxi company garages that the battery swapping would likely be done.�
Jun 18, 2013
kenliles The battery is by far the most and only expensive, care-vulnerable, abuse-devalued, heart-part on a Tesla.
If I owned one (and when I own my GenIII) I wouldn't even consider swapping spit or battery with unknown disease in exchange for a few minutes I'd rather spend at the burger joint anyway.
Batt-Swap-Hero: Not a fan, don't get it, except as a demonstration of technical orgasm.�
Jun 18, 2013
toastypasta I don't get why people hate on the concept of battery swapping.
If Tesla and Elon personally were willing to stand behind the value of the Model S by matching the resale value of the next comparable luxury sedan. Why do people think Tesla would do different here? Tesla will for sure guarantee the battery. They will definitely keep it in good condition and refurbish if needed but all along making sure that every swapped battery maintains the performance of the car you own and love.�
Jun 18, 2013
kenliles Not saying I hate it, saying I'm too dumb to get the benefit vs risk model. It's a few minutes on multi-hours or days trip. If that time is worth that to me, I'm on a plane. To me, the battery health is equivalent to the engine health on ICE. Swapping the engine on my car would be like swapping the car, all to save a few minutes so I can eat in the car instead of a restaurant. To my brain, its a dumb trade I wouldn't consider, but like I said, this brain is way too dumb to get it.
But it's true if you could demonstrate swapping an engine in 2 minutes, I'd be impressed as hell you could do something I'd never consider doing. Nice engineering feat, for no good reason to me.�
Jun 18, 2013
c041v Probably because of things like this;
Why taxi medallions cost $1 million | Felix Salmon�
Jun 18, 2013
cb32000 What if you think of it like cell phone roaming charges.
In you home area you charge at home.
When you go on a long trip you can go to your local service center swap your battery for a rental battery or have it done at home (all for a reasonable fee) maybe getting a longer range with the latest chemistry and you have the choice of supercharging it or swapping it on the road. Maybe you are charged 15-20 dollars per 100 miles for unlimited swapping. The battery could have a longer range and cost much more for Tesla since they make money on the rental.
Since this is for the small percentage of times you are out of your home area the cost is not as important.�
Jun 18, 2013
Palpatine That was my thought from the start. I'm thinking, "Why on earth would I want a 2 minute battery swap after driving 2-3 hours on the road? The first thing I would do after swapping the battery is pull into a parking spot so I can goto the bathroom, get a drink, get some food, etc." So if I am parking there already for 10-20 minutes, explain to me why I would pay extra for a battery swap?
There is a reason we don't swap the gas tank on an ICE. Yeah, I am sure it is possible and you could get going in 60 seconds. But are you willing to pay 3x more for that gas tank swap option to save a few minutes?
People complain about gasoline going from $3 to $4 per gallon. Do you really think they are just going to piss away extra thousands of dollars on low value options like battery swaps?�
Jun 18, 2013
Citizen-T I think you are missing the value proposition. You are assuming that it is only to save some time at a supercharger, but there is more. No matter how well you care for your battery, at some point it is going to drop below the level at which it would have been taking out of circulation in the battery swap network. If you think about this that means that those that participate in battery swap put a floor under how much "their battery" can degrade.
Think about this. After 8 years you are selling your car with an 8 year old battery in it. You've taken extremely good care of it, but age eats away at batteries no matter what you do, and yours is 8 years old. Now, how does your car match up against an identical used Model S on the market whose owner purchased the battery swap option? We know that his car's battery is at least as good as the worst battery in the battery swap network.
Assuming that you intend to keep your car for a long period of time, and that Tesla pulls packs from circulation after they reach some level of degradation, it is perfectly reasonable to expect that any old guy driving around that participates in the battery swap network, no matter how badly they abuse their battery, has a better battery than you. Oh, and they don't wait at Superchargers as long as you do.
Now, is that worth the price? That's the question. For some it won't be, but I bet for some it will be. People don't want to have to worry about how best to baby their batteries. They just want it to work.�
Jun 18, 2013
brianman Sounds a lot like insurance.�
Jun 19, 2013
Johan Bingo. Another peace-of-mind service Tesla can sell. Just like pre-paid service, pre-paid battery replacement (will perhaps be made redundant by swapping).�
Jun 19, 2013
30seconds I'm assuming that they would not sink $100m in a rollout without understanding how it complements the superchargers and what the payback is.
With that said - even though I can't understand the business case (yet), I am still net positive on this because once again it demonstrates that Tesla's engineers can flat out deliver.
I view this as a long term hold and a rapid swap would just increase my faith in the team and their technological lead over the rest.�
Jun 19, 2013
DTB I might be wrong and time will tell but I still believe that it'll be a frunk battery swap. Battery swap needs to be all weather to be efficient and thinking of having my "floor" battery being removed at -20C during a snowstorm just doesn't make sense. With a "frunk" battery though, that would make perfect sense. When I read the tweets and listen to the comments, they all can still apply to the frunk battery when you read between the lines and Tesla has a way of surprising us...
Then again, maybe it's because deep down I would much rather prefer the announcement to be "frunk" rather than "floor" but I'm posting this here just for the record (nothing better than to see "DTB predicted it!" in future posts�
Jun 19, 2013
bollar You are common now, but I think we are going to see Tesla sales eventually swing to a preponderance of owners who value their time differently. These people ferry their car to their destination because its cheaper than flying. Think NE to Florida for the family vacation. In that scenario, there's a driver swap every three hours and a longer refreshment stop every 5-6 hours, depending on the vehicle's range. On that 18 hour drive, an hour to two hours saved by avoiding a few 20-40 minute recharging stops may be significant - it certainly is psychologically significant.
Further, these people may not care about "babying the pack." They probably don't check coolant levels and tire pressures on their ICE, so I'm not sure why they'd start doing anything special to protect a battery now. In any event, it's not known yet how much impact the user can have on Model S battery life. The data on this forum have not yet shown a range difference between different packs based on how they're maintained.
So, I think a case can be made for swapping along certain routes, like I-95 in the Mid-Atlantic and I-10 in Texas. That buildout will need to be finished before this consumer demographic will buy. At that point, maybe Tesla will find it makes sense to expand swapping across the country, or maybe not.�
Jun 19, 2013
haid I agree. As for the business case, I'm guessing that this would make sense for a large fleet of Taxi cabs such as Las Vegas
Zappos CEO will share 100 Tesla Model S EVs in Las Vegas Downtown Project
The taxi company would buy the robo battery swapper, and the ownership of the battery packs are not an issue.�
Jun 19, 2013
deonb I've actually made the trip between Seattle and San Francisco several times in a single day (800 miles), and we then just do drive-through Starbucks. Drive-through meals. Eat in the car. Stop for the bare minimum at a gas station to refuel & go to the bathroom.
And I hated doing that every time, as I'm the sole driver. However, I always get a lot of objections from my passengers if I wanted to stop for longer for a sit-down meal, or even just want to do a 5 minute stop every 2 hours. I always say: "this time we're stopping more!" before the trip, but then after objections it inevitably becomes yet another 13-hour virtually continuous drive.
So I was actually really looking forward to be forced to take longer breaks on that particular trip (forced by the SuperChargers).
It's a little sad to me now that there might be battery swappers on the I5 (even worse that at gas stations, since you don't even get out of the car for a swap).
Oh well, maybe there will be a few years where there will be SuperChargers on that highway but before there are SuperSwappers.�
Jun 19, 2013
TD1 does anyone know if the event will be live broadcasted tomorrow, and what time it will be?�
Jun 19, 2013
bollar Supposedly not -- a taped version is expected to be available at 9:30pm PT�
Jun 19, 2013
johnnydop Elon's interview with Reuters was pretty interesting.
Judging by what he said it sounds like the battery will be swapped out in an insanely quick fashion.
I think a demo of a Model S driving into a SC slot and having its battery swapped out in under 5 minutes with the driver still in the car will be amazing. After the demo if he announces that most of the planned SC stations will roll out with the swapping mechanism installed then it might be a fond farewell for range anxiety and a Falcon 9 ride into the stratospehere for the stock�
Jun 19, 2013
Johan I'd love if some TMC member would broadcast it, like Ben Goodwin did with some earlier events. If Tesla would allow it of course.�
Jun 19, 2013
brianstorms Even if Elon demonstrates a swap that happens in 30 seconds or less, while impressive, it would mean very little to me. The key issue is not speed of swap, it's
a. Where the battery goes
b. Do I still own it
c. How much it costs to do the swap
d. Being convinced doing a swap makes any sense at all
I am not (yet) a Model S owner, but what I would envision with the car is several times a year taking it up to Silicon Valley from San Diego. The notion of being able to do that trip essentially for free, with superchargers all over, is attractive.
I see no reason why I'd ever want to swap in that kind of driving scenario, however. Especially if it cost anything more than, say, free.
What would change everything is if Tesla reduced the price of the Model S by $10k or $20k or even more, by eliminating the battery purchase outright, and making it leased. And you can swap up to N times per year for free as part of the lease. If I buy the car but not the battery then I don't have any attachment to the battery. If I buy the car with a battery and the battery is the most expensive thing about the car, then I kinda have an attachment to the battery as opposed to every other stranger's Model S battery. Cooties, etc.
I still don't get the whole swap thing. I really hope that this isn't a big mistake on Tesla's part, an obsession with swapping that they have had since day one and they're finally able to demo something that's been a part of the vision forever. Seen this so many times with tech visionaries. I hope they have figured out a reason that swapping makes sense instead of just being gee-whiz cool.�
Jun 19, 2013
NigelM ^^^ I couldn't have expressed my sentiments any better than *brianstorms*; I'd only add that from an investor perspective I don't get battery swapping as a priority. BUT.....Elon/Tesla has surprised us before and they might surprise us again.�
Jun 19, 2013
Palpatine From an investor perspective, it really does concern me the most. I got my shares from back during the IPO because I was a Roadster owner. I have stuck with this company through a lot. My Roadster deposit was at risk during the 2008-2009 time frame when Tesla almost failed.
So as an investor when Tesla starts discussing taking on a lot of land ownership or long term land leases for phyical battery swap stations, that causes a lot of concern. Think of your typical gas station along the highway? What does it take to make that structure profitable, or at least avoid losing money?
Most gas stations don't make profits on the gas, they make profits on you coming inside to buy potato chips, soda, coffee, cigarettes, etc. To justify the expense of having that building there with one or two cashiers as employees, they need a high volume of cars coming through so they can make a few pennies of gross profit on gas sales, then make healthy margins on the food and drinks or they add a Subway franchise or something like that to make more money.
So as an investor in Tesla, I want to see their plan for how this pencils out financially for each swap station. The target market seems to be the driver that is on the road for 500+ miles and needs a battery swap so fast that they cannot stop for more than 1-2 minutes. So there doesn't appear to be a profit goal involved with selling other products (potato chips, soda) to that customer.
So since the target customer doesn't appear to have time to get out of the car to get other food/drink profit items, then 100% of the costs of a swap station need to be captured in either the swap fees or the subscription or whatever method they use to pay the building, real estate, employee staff expenses, electricity, battery inventory, etc. I am really interested as an investor how they keep this from becoming a huge money pit.�
Jun 19, 2013
johnnydop My assumption based answers to your questions are:
a. Where the battery goes
He said in yesterdays Reuters interview that they specifically designed the Model S so that its batt pack is swappable and can be done quickly so i dont think this demo will be about a seperate battery going in the frunk.
b. Do I still own it
How could you? You just left it at the station and someone else can take it once its fully charged. This makes sense because Elon said during the �Service� announcement that the battery is 100% covered under the warranty. With that said, owners shouldn�t have to worry about tending to it like a little baby. If the performance of it drops dramatifcally I�m sure they�ll be replaced especially if many are using the swapping stations.
c. How much it costs to do the swap
He also said during the Reuters interview that the cost will be compelling, which i'm thinking it might be free. He also said it would cost about $50-100 million to have all the SC stations capable of swapping. Thats not a huge capital outlay and its also a one time cost. Remember, the space they have for SC's if either very cheap or rent free because it brings in high end customers to the location.
d. Being convinced doing a swap makes any sense at all
A five minute �recharge� as opposed to 20. That�s not enough convincing? Or perhaps there might be a bigger battery that you can swap into for a fee which would be a good range extender.�
Jun 19, 2013
hershey101 Lets be clear. Its 5 minutes vs. 1 hr to recharge your battery. If I'm driving an ICE I'm not going to make a pitstop until the needle points to E, why should it be any different with a Tesla? If I'm driving anywhere, I don't want to stop every 2 hours for a 20 minute stop. Thats a ~20% increase in my travel time, even after babying the battery. I want to drive my Model S like my ICE, 80+ mph for several hours, stop for 5-10 minutes to fill it up/ go to the bathroom, and go back to driving.
All this arguing about how battery swapping is plain dumb. This is an amazing car, extremely fast, quite, and comfortable. I don't want to spend 20% of my travel time on road trips outside of the car, I spent over a $100K on it, I want to sit in it, and just drive! Battery swapping is amazing, extremely awesome if its free, but even if it costs as much as a tank of gas ($50-$60) per use, I would totally use it.
Last time I took my Model S from my house to my college, it took me 7 1/2 hours because of terrible charging infrastructure! I didn't take the car on the trip again because I can make the same trip in ~3.5 hours (250 miles @ 70 mph avg.). If this infrastructure was put into place in, say Scranton or Binghimton, I could drive my model S like my ICE.
I love driving, so it feels like being shackled when I have to keep on stopping to charge my car, and even though its the only drawback, its a huge deal. People on this fourms don't understand how much of a pain charging is because they are EV friendly. I couldn't care less if Tesla was an EV car or an ICE car, I bought it because its FAST, and QUITE, not because in some delusional sense I think I'm helping the environment or because I think a $60/tank is expensive. If I spend a $100K on a car, I don't mind paying $60 for a refill.�
Jun 19, 2013
brianstorms That's not what I meant by "where the battery goes." I meant where and how it is stored. Does it get absorbed into grid storage at the SC site? Does it get recharged and loaded into the next car that pulls in to swap? If it is 2 in the morning and I pull into the Tejon Pass SC, does a swap happen unattended? Entirely via swapbots?�
Jun 19, 2013
rlang59 One quick point, if you are only stopping for ~5 minutes to swap then you have eliminated the "brings high end customers to the location" part of the statement. If they were going to stay around they could just supercharge. Also I will be very surprised if this is free. They are going to sell it as time value like they do with everything else.�
Jun 19, 2013
johnnydop Sorry about the misunderstanding.
My guess is that the battery gets stored and get charged for the next person to take. I dont think they'd be used for grid storage since they'd need to be fully charged for the next person who needs one.
The stations will probably fully automatic without the need for anyone to be there so it shouldnt matter what time you go there.
I just cant wait to see exactly how it happens.
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I see your point but i think most owners dont buy it because they'll need to make frequent 300 mile trips that involve frequent 30 min charging stops, then again, after tomorrow, that might not be an issue. Pull in, swap out, pull out in about 5 minutes. If thats the case then i think i would be worth it to add maybe 5% travel time and be able to save tons of money on fuel costs.�
Jun 19, 2013
surfside this +1,000. non-early adopters don't want deal with making concessions on how they drive or take road trips because they bought an electric car -- they want to drive as they always have and have their electric car mirror their years of experience with ICEs. people are very used to paying for gas for road trips; paying the electric equivalent for "gas" through a battery swap is going to be an obvious requirement to most people (putting aside the fact that it will likely be a lot cheaper than paying for gas).
elon has said that he is a fan of optionality; for those road warriors that are trying to get somewhere quickly (and don't want to wait at least 45 minutes to fully recharge their battery), the superswapper is going to be a great option. for those that have time (or are going to be stopping for a meal), the free superchargers are an even better option.
surfside�
Jun 19, 2013
kenliles From your perspective then, I can see why you would support it and I'm sure there are many in your same genre of travel.
I'm in the opposite - when I drive in town I might want to be in the car driving.
When I take a long trip, I don't want to be in the car driving no matter how amazing- after 3-4 hours of driving I'm sick of it and need a break, so my ICE driving matches my EV road trip driving with charging stops - In my case, I DON'T like driving- It's being in any car in the first place that makes me feel shackled. If I had my way I'd want to spend 80% of my long distance travel time OUTSIDE the car, so 20% seems like slow torture to me - For every 5 hours, I enjoy the hour OUT no matter what fun-mobile I'm driving at 60mph; Further for nearly all trips beyond a 5 hour drive, I'm flying.
So I get the value for you and yours and I get it not for me and mine. Sounds like we'll both get our way with a choice- I can see a battery lease arrangement fitting into this as others have described - but if I buy the battery with the car- my view is that I bought the battery and I wouldn't swap it with someone else's anymore than I would swap the car itself.�
Jun 19, 2013
ShortSlaver If you're driving a long, long distance and determine that battery swapping is the only tech for you because time is critical, might be you consider flying?
Who drives really far distances often? I think the last time I did is when I moved, I drove halfway across the country. But I never consider driving anywhere that is more than a couple hundred miles away now. IF you're driving far, why would battery swapping matter over charging?�
Jun 19, 2013
hershey101 I go to Cornell, its ~250 miles from my house. Although technically well within the "rated range" of the battery, my car seldom gives me that. I hate having to drive through NY, NJ, PA at <60 mph when the car and roads begs to be driven at >75 mph.. If I wanted to drive <60 mph I could have bought any crappy old car for a third of the price.
I like driving, I want to take a trip from NY down to Virgina, or FL, or even CA just for fun. A few years ago I drove from NYC to Chicago non-stop in ~10 hrs. To think that trip today would require 2 days in my Model S is crazy.
If I want to take a break from driving, sure the super charger is a good option because it usually takes me 45 minutes to go to the bathroom, eat etc. But superchargers have yet to be built out, and if Tesla keeps on selling these cars at the rate of demand, then you might end up waiting an hour at a supercharger location before a spot opens up. I like having the battery swapping option, although I would have preferred the litium air addon concept more, this is still a good option to have, as long as its pay-per-use and not some weird 8 year subscription plan or something like that that people have been mentioning.�
Jun 19, 2013
Palpatine 98% of all trips are less than 50 miles.
99% of all trips are less than 70 miles.
The number of trips over 200 miles? 0.1%
(source: the internet.... so it must be true)
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I think that will be a common attitude. Most people hate the 2 year contract with their cell phone provider. So I don't particularly find a 8 year battery subscription to be realistic. The implications for resale liabilities make that problematic. Did I just kill the potential resale if the used car buyer is unwilling to accept the ongoing liability? Do I have to buyout the 8 year battery contract to end it early so I can sell my car?
So on a per use fee basis, how on earth does Tesla make this function for someone who is doing a one way trip?
Or a trip where they might be coming back via a different route and unable to pickup their original battery?
These are just pesky questions that cannot be waved away with the expectation that Elon will deliver a magical pink unicorn.These are real world assets and logistical issues that have no easy solution with a battery swap strategy.�
Jun 19, 2013
bollar I would suggest that for many people, the equation of time vs. money is one of limited resources. Look at the cars parked at Disney World on any given day and you'll find thousands of cars with license plates from the Northeast and other far away places -- it's a group of people that have enough money to go on vacation, but not enough to fly the family down to Florida. They're more than willing to take a big, once-a-year, vacation, but have to work within their budget. More often than not, this means piling the family into the minivan for the 18 hour trek and this means making those stops very efficient, perhaps with a long stop every 5-6 hours. The cumulative expended time of charging 20-40 minutes every 200 miles cuts into a short vacation and means they're spending time in a place other than where they want to be.
Presumably the current crop of MS owners are fairly wealthy, but I think we'll find that later generations of S, X and G3 owners will be much less of the "jet set" mentality.�
Jun 19, 2013
DaveT Exactly, with Superchargers as it stands you don't have the option of doing 10hr nonstop drive from NYC to Chicago even if you wanted. But battery swap makes that a possibility (w/minimal quick stops like filling up a gas tank).
For most EV early adopters, they have no problem doing a 20 minute Supercharger stop every 2-3 hours. But for the mass public, to be required to do so could be a big inconvenience.
For example, a lot of people might drive from San Diego to Los Angeles, spend a few hours in a meeting, do a couple errands and drive back. If you are required to stop at Supercharger station for 20 minutes on your way back just to make it home, that can be a huge inconvenience for some people. But if they just need to do a quick 1 minute battery swap on the way home (that's faster than filling a gas tank), then they probably won't mind.
Of course, it'll come down to the economics and how compelling Tesla makes it, which will be a big part of tomorrow's announcement.�
Jun 19, 2013
deonb I despise flying (especially with U.S. domestic airlines). I'm already driving anywhere up to 3000 miles (round trip) - haven't flown a shorter distance than that in 15 years. It's also much better environmentally, even in a Hybrid - never mind an EV.
Once we have self-driving vehicles, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't fly anywhere in the U.S. again. (Well, apart from to Hawaii).�
Jun 19, 2013
ShortSlaver I guess if you're interested in long haul driving, an EV might not be the car for you right now. Who knows, maybe there will be demand for swapping but how people drive statistically, charging makes a whole lot more sense.
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Yeah it can get crummy at times. But I'm someone who has to fly often and usually with very short notice. I can't get from NYC to SF in a day so flying is the only option. Plus, it's quite fast. And if you do it right by getting the airlines credit card and points, etc, you usually end up in first class anyhow.
The main problem with flying is that airlines compete on price as internet bookings are often the cheapest. However, if you spend a bit more you get a far better class of service, even in economy. Look at Virgin for instance. Often it costs more to fly the. But the experience is 100x better. It's what you make of it. There's plenty of good domestic service.�
Jun 19, 2013
deonb I don't know about that. The best domestic first class I've seen is still a joke. It's like business class on an airline like Saudia or Emirates (actually it's probably closer to 'economy' on Emirates), never mind compared to the far east airlines.
If the U.S. actually had a real first class I would consider using it.
I hope Elon has a better service for the HyperLoop in mind. It either needs to have a fast embark/disembark experience (I don't mind taking subways - it's so quick that it doesn't matter that there are no luxuries), or it needs to have a much better service model than airports and airlines are currently providing.�
Jun 19, 2013
Palpatine I wonder at what price point people would think Swaps make sense compared to just using a Supercharger.
We already know that the Supercharger access price is about $2,000 per car for the life of the car.
So let's say someone already has a 85 kwh battery pack and Supercharger access. How much would you be willing to pay for also having battery swap also as another solution? I think most of us can agree that the physical and logistical infrastructure of a swap station is going to cost more than Superchargers. Let's say it is roughly twice as expensive.
Would you pay Tesla Motors $4,000 up front to buy the battery swap option? Let's say it was paired with the $12,000 replacement battery pack as part of it.
For $16,000 extra, you could get unlimited battery swaps for 8 years. Since you paid the $12,000 to add a swap battery to the "swap network" you get to swap around for 8 years for an extra $4,000 on top of that.
Would you buy the $12,000 replacement battery, contribute it to the community swap network, then pay for the $4,000 fee to swap around sharing battery packs? With $16,000 to play with and enough people signing on, then maybe the financials would make sense. It really just depends on whether or not there are enough people willing to pay $16,000 (roughly) to be in that network.
Are there enough people who would buy the $12,000 replacement and also pay $4,000 upfront for the swap fees?
Or would that be the type of amount where you would take a pass and just use the Supercharger that you already have paid for?�
Jun 19, 2013
Stoneymonster I can't see paying $12000 to offset maybe 3-8 hours of inconvenience per year. For myself that's what it would work out to since I take maybe 2-3 long trips that would require 1 or 2 supercharger stops. That's crazy and I do not expect this to be the deal.�
Jun 19, 2013
Palpatine I see two major costs with battery swapping. Swap stations and battery inventory/depreciation.
$12,000 would only get you the battery part of the swap inventory and your share of the wear and tear on the swap battery network. I think a $4,000 fee (double of the Supercharger fee) would be the likely minimum for a car owners share of just building out the physical plant of the swap network and paying ongoing support/maintenance of the employees, equipment, etc.
So who thinks $16,000 is a reasonable upfront fee for unlimited swap access for 8 years? Too high? Too low? Would you pay it? Would you use Supercharger instead for the occasional long trip?�
Jun 19, 2013
emupilot It's not just the infrastructure for battery swapping. EM has said that they don't have to pay much rent for the space used by superchargers because they are bringing in customers who will eat at the restaurants etc. while charging. Superswappers will take up space without providing customers, so they will need to pay for use of the land.�
Jun 19, 2013
Palpatine Good point. We don't have the same synergies to convince a restaurant to allow Tesla to tear up a section of the parking lot to allow a battery swap drive thru (picture a car wash size building next to a gas station).
What would be the incentive for the restaurant to allow Tesla free rent (or cheap rent) to do that for a 2 minute battery swap where the driver is highly unlikely to exit the car for a meal also?
So how much does a 1/4 acre of commercial zoned land cost at the typical highway rest area? I have no idea. But it would seem that Tesla will have to ultimately pay that in the form of a land purchase or long term land lease agreement.�
Jun 19, 2013
NigelM Not sure I see the point in these hypothetical numbers when Tesla will make an announcement in ~24 hours.�
Jun 19, 2013
DaveT I don't understand why you keep thinking that battery swap will be a car wash size building like Better Place. You make the assumption that it has to be big and cost a lot. Tesla could show us tomorrow something very small and inexpensive. That's the point of technology advancing. Better Place was like 1.0 (big, clunky and expensive). Surely Tesla can release a better 2.0 version that's much more advanced, smaller and cheaper.�
Jun 19, 2013
DaveT I think your estimates of costs are way too high. Battery costs in 8 years will drop dramatically (at least by 50% of current costs) and be well below $100/kwh. $12000 for a pack replacement pre-paid right now is way above replacement cost in 8 years. It's plenty of room to absorb some of the battery swap rollout costs.
Think $12000 prepaid now for a new battery in 8 years and unlimited swapping during that time.
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1. Land is cheap at a highway rest stop. It's not metropolitan city land. It's far from a city.
2. Tesla's probably already built battery swap into the contract that they've signed with the landlords when they started building Supercharger stations. Meaning, the landlords get Supercharging stations and a battery swap station.
3. Again, don't assume battery swap station has to be huge and expensive. It can be small and they might not need to tear up the parking lot. We don't know until tomorrow night.�
Jun 19, 2013
NigelM Mod Note: one post went to snippiness.�
Jun 19, 2013
johnnydop Elon has repeatedly said that Better Place got their swap idea from Telsa but couldnt get the technology right. Tesla did and thats why it'll probably very interested how its done and at a "compelling" cost.�
Jun 19, 2013
emupilot For a one-stall superswapper to have a throughput of 10 swaps per hour, and if it takes an hour to fully charge a depleted pack, that means storage for 10 battery packs, electrical infrastructure for 10 simultaneous superchargers, and a climate controlled enclosure. That footprint is alot bigger than the stall where the swap actually occurs, although perhaps income from grid storage when the swapper is underutilized could help mitigate the cost.�
Jun 19, 2013
rlang59 DaveT, I think he is getting his $12k number from the previously announced battery replacement plan that never went on sale. I saw someone else in another thread make the same assumption.�
Jun 19, 2013
gaswalla 
Was at the Hawthorne (LA) supercharger today.. they took down the Tesla tower (previously oblisk).. parked a silver Model S over the water on top of stilts, and have disabled 4 of the superchargers (only 2 were operational).. A small production crew was driving another Model S over a small ramp to make sure "it all goes well." In addition, lots of folks there running ethernet and internet access points throughout the area. Approx 20-30 workers getting the site ready for tomorrow. No large equipment identified. Shutting down the superchargers makes me curious.
Funny thing: the silver Model over the water now has it's charge port open.. I opened it when I clicked on the button on the supercharger.. it opened my charge port and the one on display. Workers there were confused about how it opened, and who would have to go through the water to close it.�
Jun 19, 2013
DaveT Wow, strange they would remove the Tesla obelisk. Why would they do that?
Looking at the picture you posted (btw, thanks for that!) I had the thought of what if battery swap was like the parting of the Red Sea and the water would separate and a swapping machine would swap the battery and then the water recedes back. Elon could raise his staff to start the demo.�
Jun 19, 2013
mulder1231 No, Elon Musk is going to come out in a robe and walk on the water to close the charge port. That's the demo! :biggrin:�
Jun 19, 2013
Banahogg Silver was never my favorite color for the S, but it looks amazing as a floating hover-car.
I wonder what the dish on the roof of the building is for? I'd expect that they'd send it to remote sites via internet not microwave/satellite...�
Jun 19, 2013
markb1 Trying to figure out what this means, exactly. Do you have any other pictures?
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Battery swapping was just a ruse! Model S actually can drive on water*.
*Assuming water is 3 inches deep.�
Jun 19, 2013
gaswalla I walked the area... Besides the disassembled superchargers and what I noted, nothing else notable. I took a few pics of the Model X prototype, but that's another story.
D
Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2�
Jun 19, 2013
mitch672 Elon is going to announce he's actually Moses in disguise, he'll demo god swapping the pack as the reflection pool parts
My we are way off topic now�
Jun 19, 2013
Banahogg Maybe whoever is going to be driving the demo car over the swap equipment was the one practicing to make sure he doesn't drive off the side? I'd hope that practice isn't required for the real swappers, but maybe the demo one is special to show the moving parts?�
Jun 19, 2013
jeff_adams Are they going to use the obelisk platform for filming? Looks like a good area to mount cameras and get dramatic shots.
On the other hand, is that where battery packs are stored for swapping?
Where was the ramp they were driving up? In the supercharger bays under the canopy? On the side in the area of 2 empty parking spots? Next to the obelisk base?�
Jun 19, 2013
mitch672 Could be the car is positioned on top of the swapper already, and they will empty the water just before the demo, to show it's mechanics, which will be clearly visible. Maybe they have a high speed pump, Elon will wave his hands up high (think Moses, parting the Red Sea), and the swapper will come into view. Perhaps Elon has finally channeled some Steve Jobs showmanship/dramatic flair�
Jun 19, 2013
jeff_adams Water plus electricity would be crazy. Hope they won't try a stupid stunt to look cool.�
Jun 19, 2013
mitch672 That could be part of the demo: "it's so safe, we can even do it underwater". Tesla: Expect the unexpected�
Jun 19, 2013
brianman A "complete" demo would show 3 splits:
1. gasoline with a cutout of the gas gauge
2. supercharger with a cutout of the rated range
3. swapper with a cutout of the rated range
They should synchronize the entry time and "stop the clock" when the swapper driver fastens his seatbelt as he prepares to drive away. At this point, there should be a zoom-in of the gauges and ranges of all 3 vehicles.�
Jun 20, 2013
kilimats [FONT=.HelveticaNeueUI]Elon just tweeted, omg looks like the swap will take only 45s !!!! Omfg !!!!!![/FONT]�
Jun 20, 2013
Johan 
�
Jun 20, 2013
maekuz If they pull off 45 seconds...Holy Moly!�
Jun 20, 2013
JRP3 They are just now figuring this out?�
Jun 20, 2013
johnnydop How is that possible? Is he really going to wow the world or is it something so simple and obvious that we are all overlooking it?�
Jun 20, 2013
bollar Better Place demoed 60 seconds, so 45 is a large, but not amazing improvement.
Better Place Battery Swap Demonstration - YouTube�
Jun 20, 2013
johnnydop Yes, but didnt Better Place's swap occur in a car wash size building. Elon said they got the technology wrong so doing in a existing SC slot in 45 secs would be very impressive.�
Jun 20, 2013
WarpedOne Why is 45s such a surprise?
Battery is a big and heavy module held in place by ~30 bolts that can be un/screwed simultaneously in ~5 seconds.
That leaves half a minute to un/plug the battery, move it out/in (and align with a car)
Battery electric connection is just like a wall socket and a plug. It is just bigger same with coolant - there ain't no cables/hoses to dis/connect.�
Jun 20, 2013
callmesam If this is pulled off without a hitch, then watch out for sales of the Model S.
As other have mentioned, swap is unlikely to be used predominantly or exclusively except on rare occasions (long distance travel outside the range of Superchargers AND/OR taxi service/towncar service).
With that being said, the IDEA of fast swap is going to really inspire people to think of the Model S as a "no compromise" car.�
Jun 20, 2013
Trev Page Elon clearly said "rent" the larger battery pack for long road trips in that clip. A battery swap station either out in the wild or at Tesla service centers would most likely offer this capability at a cost of course.�
Jun 20, 2013
Royal TS(LA) @johnnydop:
Who is "all"�
Jun 20, 2013
Bardlebee What time is the announcement today by the way?�
Jun 20, 2013
Royal TS(LA) Exactly. I bet this can even be done faster some time from now.�
Jun 20, 2013
johnnydop Agreed. If you driving 400 miles then one or two 30 minute charges isnt a big deal, but if your driving very far, say600+ miles, then making multiple 30 min stops could add up to lots of wasted time which is exactly why a swap might be preferred.
The idea is that it gives drivers more choice and it tailors to those that dont want to wait and are willing to pay for a recharge. The more choices the more potential customers you can lure in especially since it doesnt look like it'll be capital intensive to roll out. Elon said it would cost between 50-100 million. He said it wasnt cheap, but wasnt too much money either especially considering they have over 500mm after paying off the DOE. Now thats a great way to put your cash to work.�
Jun 20, 2013
Theshadows Swap is 100% necessary for the future. with .5M or 1M+ Tesla's on the road there has to be a high speed solution, a 30 minute wait to charge would create massive lines of cars backed up waiting.
Look at today's gas stations, many with 20+ pumps and it takes 5-10 minutes to fill up, yet you still have to wait in line sometimes. Imagine pulling into a SuperCharger and each line is 4 cars deep. Would I pay $40-$80 to swap so I didn't have to wait in that line for 2 hours? Absolutely. It's not always about the financial cost to drive. The larger issue is the environmental impact to drive. Paying the equivalent fuel/gas fill-up to swap is an easy sell.
I'm a solar installer and we in the solar industry have been dreaming of affordable grid (and off grid) storage for years. There will be a huge market for 80% capacity Tesla batteries that have been taken out of swap circulation in our industry. They will be recycled into a place where weight doesn't matter. Elon is brilliant and I have no doubt he has thought this through and has an exciting plan.�
Jun 20, 2013
deonb Link? (And time?)�
Jun 20, 2013
copyhacker This + 100.
It doesn't matter what the statistics are on long trips taken, total drive time, or length of the average rest stop. It doesn't matter whether TMC members think its a good idea. It doesn't even matter how many people end up using it.
The American driver does not like to be told what they can't do with their car. Period.
If everyone made car purchases rationally, there would be no market for SUVs.�
Jun 20, 2013
deonb Only if you pretty much call Elon a liar (or at least an idealist) during the SuperCharger announcements.
Elon: "we want to generate more energy from the sun over the cause of the year than is used by Model S's that recharge at the station"
A SuperCharger that is drawing in more power than it distributes, by solar math, will have to be physically larger than the maximum peak usage of that SuperCharger. The moment lines start to form, that SuperCharger can't possibly draw in more energy than it uses - not even if you put it in the middle of Nevada.
Swapping doesn't actually change this, except if swapping is outright not being supported by Solar power. Knowing what you know of Elon, how likely do you think it would be for him to support a system that would rely on grid power?�
Jun 20, 2013
Theshadows The solar panels do not have to be located at the station. They can install huge solar farms hundreds of miles away and as long as they are feeding that energy back into the grid they can still claim that they are being charged with solar. They don't even have to install the solar, they can buy the solar rights from people who do own the solar.
Many of the existing SuperChargers do not have solar right now.�
Jun 20, 2013
deonb And that's what Elon said they will do in places like Norway where they would have to, since there is not enough sunlight. But that certainly does not apply to California.
At $2000 per car (actually even $1500 per car), there is plenty of money to build enough SuperChargers all covered with Solar Panels, for a system that is sized at peak demand and running solar positive, without buying any net additional power from another party.
Why do you think that Tesla would now need to do something else instead?
The Solar installation is meant to trail the SuperCharger installation by 18 months.�
Jun 20, 2013
ShortSlaver The fact they can demonstrate a "recharge" of the battery faster than a tank of gas can be filled by the fastest gas pump around is pretty impressive. I'm not 100% what the practicality of it all is, but it's a nice confidence inspiring test.
Less than 45 seconds? Amazing if true.�
Jun 20, 2013
Royal TS(LA) Surprising for many, sure. I did some rough design sketches for a possible swapping/storing/charging mechanism for fun. It was, in the end, not very complex and it certainly looked like it was possible to swap a battery pack in a car that was designed for it already in under one minute. It's just apparent that battery swapping can't be tacked on as an afterthought. And that's what demonstrates Elon's planning and designing abilities the best. He thinks things through, from start to end. Though, it's probably the other way round: Knowing what is to be achieved and then find ways, "backwards" from step to step until he comes out at the status quo. Then it is "just" work to do. And a lot of it�
Jun 20, 2013
kenliles I'm with you on that one. Looks like they will make it a great marketing tool and the demo will be impressive engineering. The they'll need to work on the opposite message it sends (even if not true)- SuperCharging alone is insufficient to own a Tesla- you'll have to decide when to swap the battery to make it home. I don't believe that's true of course, but I believe that's the message conveyed to those that don't know what is true and what is not - they don't see changing a battery fast as an engineering feat and most of those won't equate the switch of a $20,000 battery with filling the tank- that's a hard sell to the average non-EV buyer imo. I hope I'm wrong, if so, it would come through the concept that people are accustom to changing batteries in other devices and would equate to that experience instead. But currently I think the best they can hope for is a wash with an amazing demonstration. I'll admit- it'll be fun to see.�
Jun 20, 2013
vfx If you are attending tonight, the TesLA club is gathering at a local eatery before going over to the Design center.
If you can join us, drop an email to info @ Teslaclubla.com so we can squeeze you into the restaurant reservations.
Tesla Design Studio, Thursday, 6/20 @ 7:30pm
3203 Jack Northrop Avenue
Hawthorne, CA 90250
We will meet at the Marina del Rey Cheesecake Factory at 5:30pm:
4142 V�a Marina Marina Del Rey, CA 90292
http://locations.thecheesecakefactory.com/ca/marina-del-rey-2.html
The TeslaClubLA Team
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Jun 20, 2013
vfx This has already been done. Boston, Chicago and I belive NY had electric powered taxis all over the cities that would pull in for battery swaps. Not at all a new idea as these were running in the early nineteen hundreds.�
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