Jan 22, 2014
DaveT The background: I�ve wanted a way where active members of the Investors Discussions group could get together and talk deeper about TSLA and investments. I�d love to be able to meet physically but I figured the next best thing would be to organize some video chats online so we could get to know each other and learn from each other.
The technology: Currently we�re using Google+ Hangouts for video chat. Google+ Hangouts isn�t the ideal solution but it�s the best we�ve got so far. They limit participants to 10 people. We can choose to have the hangout public (anyone can view) or private (only participants are allowed), so for these initial hangouts I�ve chosen to make them private. In order to join, you�ll need an invite to become a participant and not just a viewer. Google+ makes it a bit complicated to send out invites to participants, so when I post details of each hangout I�ll post details on how to get an invite. The short answer is that you�ll need to invite me (or the person hosting the hangout) into one of your circles and then I (or person hosting the format) will invite you into one of my circles (ie., Investors circle) and then I�ll send out an invite to that circle.
The format: We�ll try to keep the video hangouts to about an hour. We�ll post rough agendas prior to the hangout as well.
So far, I�ve hosted two of these hangouts and they�ve been a ton of fun. I�ve gotten to know people better and learned a lot as well. Inevitably, we might face some problems with the 10 person limit for participants for the hangouts, but we�ll figure it out as we get there.
Our 3rd hangout will be tonight (Jan 22) at 7pm PST. Our special guest will be sleepyhead. I�ll post more details on the hangout shortly.�
Jan 22, 2014
Norse Thanks for doing this DaveT! 7 PM PST is abit late here in Norway, as it already is 7.12 PM here.
If there is room available I would still like to join, but since I am not sure if I still will be awake I won't hold the spot if anyone else wants to join.�
Jan 22, 2014
DaveT Norse, would love to be able to meet you via video. Hope you can wake up and join us.
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Here are the details for tonight�s hangout, Jan 22 (Wed) at 7pm PST.
Time: Jan 22 (Wed) at 7pm PST. That�s tonight!
Special Guest: Sleepyhead
Hosts: DaveT, Sleepyhead
The Google+ hangout will be limited to 10 participants and will not be broadcasted publicly for privacy reasons.
In order to join:
1. go to this page: [expired]
2. Add me to one of your circles and then in the "say something" field post a comment saying, "Please send invite." I�ll then add you to one of my circles and will send a participant invite to you. (Note: there will be no �viewers� as this is a private hangout. There will only be participants.)
Since Google+ has a limit of 10 participants, if there are more people who want to join then here are the following rules:
1. Invites will be sent out at exactly 6:50pm PST. So make sure that you�ve added me to one of your circles and posted a �send an invite� comment on the page prior to 6:50pm PST.
2. The first 10 people who accept the invite after 6:50pm PST will be the participants.
3. If you participated in one of our previous hangouts, then we ask you to not join until 7:00pm to allow other people a chance to join their first hangout. After 7:00pm PST, feel free to accept the invite and you�ll be allowed to join if there are less than 10 participants.
The agenda tonight will be as follows:
*I�ve been wanting to chat with sleepyhead for a while, so I�m going to make the focus of the night to hear from sleepyhead and ask him questions. All participants in the video chat are feel to ask and participate in the discussion.
6:50pm-7:00pm - complete invite process
7:00-7:10pm - introduce each other and usernames
7:10�7:20pm - sleepyhead intro to self and investment philosophy
7:20-8:00pm - sleepyhead Q&A about TSLA, solar and other investments�
Jan 22, 2014
Norse I hope so to, I am hitting the pub now so we'll see what shape I'm in later
�
Jan 22, 2014
bhuwan Any chance you can broadcast this hangout? I would love to join but I suspect there won't be enough room tonight
Also, google may allow 10 additional participants via the phone
Oh and I think if you have a google apps account you can have 15 video participants.
- sent via mobile�
Jan 22, 2014
lorih Thanks for organizing this Dave. I enjoyed Sunday's hangout, and wish I could join tonight, but I am not available. It sounds like it will be fun, and a great learning experience. I will keep my eye out to join again in the future.�
Jan 22, 2014
kenliles excellent idea DaveT - I'll be watching for a good join time as well-
thanks for your efforts�
Jan 22, 2014
AlMc DaveT: Thanks for setting these up. Hope they go well and you will continue to offer them. I will try to make this one. A bit past my bedtime on the east coast :wink: so if I participate it may be in my pjs :biggrin:�
Jan 22, 2014
Jonathan Hewitt Same here on both counts�
Jan 22, 2014
Clprenz Can someone screencast it?
I'd love to participate and hear sleepyhead, he's has given incredible advice, but I will be busy at the beginning of it, therefore I couldn't get invited. DM me if possible!!! I'd really appreciate a screen cast of it!�
Jan 22, 2014
FredTMC Hi guys, is this the right webpage to be on for the video conf? TIA...
also, does this work on an iPad?�
Jan 22, 2014
DaveT We've decided to make the hangout public for viewing. So you can go to this page and view the hangout live w/o being a participant. It'll start at 7:00pm PST.�
Jan 22, 2014
StapleGun Thanks for making this public, and thanks for everyone that contributed! I watched quite a bit and there was some great information and insights shared. Especially thanks to DaveT for hosting, and Sleepyhead for his incredibly in-depth knowledge about the solars and willingness to share his thoughts and strategies. Looking forward to watching/participating in the future!�
Jan 23, 2014
hershey101 Grr I missed this.... I was on vacation for the last month, just got back, and opened up my trading account to see TSLA at $180. It was around $145 when I left, happy vacation�
Jan 23, 2014
mitch672 Yes, you need to join Google+, and the google "hangout" app, from the Apple App Store.
I was using the hangout app on an iPad last night.�
Jan 23, 2014
Lump Agree 100%, glad it was opened to the public, lots of great info was shared.
Sleepyheads mic had some issues, I don't know if it was feedback or something else, maybe he can try a headset next time.�
Jan 23, 2014
TD1 Guys would it be possible that you record the hangout and put in on youtube, afaik hangout does have this feature integrated.
If you are conceded about privacy you can give access only to certain youtube accounts, request through PMs.�
Jan 23, 2014
palmer_md sorry I missed it last night. I did not read this thread regarding the update to public viewing otherwise I'd have listened in.�
Jan 23, 2014
FredTMC Thanks Dave, Sleepy, et al. Good discussion last night�
Jan 23, 2014
austinEV yes, I was lurking as well.�
Jan 23, 2014
kcveins Thanks for hosting this.
It was very infomative for me; I was initially going to hang for only 30 mins, but ended up hanging around for 90"�
Jan 30, 2014
DaveT These hangouts are bearing fruit. Yesterday FredTMC and I were hanging out at the Cross Country Tour sendoff at Hawthorne. Then, Fango (tmc member) recognized us from the hangout and joined in. It was great to see people in person.
On another note, sleepyhead and I are planning to co-host a Feb 19th hangout (the evening after Q4 earnings are announced). Should be lots of fun.�
Jan 30, 2014
NigelM I applaud the initiative and I'd love to take part (listen in) but the time makes it a little late for us East Coast folks.
Suggestion: think about signing up for TMC Connect on July 18-20th. Could be a great opportunity to network and talk Tesla as well as TSLA. (More in the thread)
Again, congrats on the idea and thank you DaveT for taking the lead on the Hangouts.�
Jan 30, 2014
StapleGun Can't wait!�
Jan 31, 2014
austinEV Get used to the idea of about 200 people logging into that event...�
Feb 7, 2014
FluxCap I'd love to join you guys on 'earnings eve' this time around. I wonder if there is in fact an upper boundary on Google Hangouts "attendance" from a server performance standpoint...�
Feb 17, 2014
DaveT Sleepyhead and I will be co-hosting a google hangout on Feb 19th at 6:30pm PST. I'll post more details soon.�
Feb 17, 2014
mitch672 Dave, is there going to be a "view only" capability?
There might be way more people than the 10 that the hangout can support, not everyone needs to participate.�
Feb 17, 2014
AlMc I would slao like to make this one either as a participant or more likely a 'view only' person.. Either way, thanks DaveT for hosting.�
Feb 17, 2014
Theshadows Me too�
Feb 17, 2014
DaveT Yes we'll have a view only mode as well since actual participants will be limited. We might limit actual participants to just a few to several people so we can go in depth. But we'll make sure to open the view-only mode and let anyone view.�
Feb 17, 2014
FluxCap Looking forward to participating if possible, Dave.
Cheers,
Flux�
Feb 17, 2014
techmaven Really looking forward to this. Thanks!�
Feb 17, 2014
kenliles Love to tune in as view-only. Pretty sure I can make most if not all of it. Thanks guys�
Feb 18, 2014
c041v Going to figure out how this Google+ hangout works. Are these things iPad friendly?
This will be fun for me as I'm currently in Dubai, so I've warned the wife that I will be busy till very late Wednesday/Thursday, hehe.�
Feb 18, 2014
772 Thanks DaveT... hoping to be there (view-only mode).�
Feb 18, 2014
TD1 I would also like to view only
I think Google Hangout has the option to stream it directly via youtube.
That would be great�
Feb 18, 2014
DaveT TSLA Q4 2013 post-earnings hangout
Here�s the info for tomorrow evening�s google+ hangout.
What: Roundtable discussion of TSLA Q4 2013 earnings presentation
Who can view: Everyone is invited to view the discussion. It will be broadcasted live and won�t have any limit to the number of people who can view.
Who will participate: The roundtable will be made up of several TMC members who�ve been invited by PM. Sleepyhead and I will be co-hosting the discussion.
What time: Feb 19 at 6:30pm PST
How long: 1-1.5 hours
Agenda: We�ll start off with general reactions to the earnings presentation (shareholder letter and conference call) and then we�ll dive deeper into specific parts of the earnings call like financials (gross margin, revenue, etc), FY 2014 guidance, gigafactory and other areas.
Here�s the link. Live broadcast will start at 6:30pm PST tomorrow (Feb 19). We�ll probably leave up the video for those who can�t watch it live.
TSLA Q4 2013 Earnings Roundtable - YouTube�
Feb 18, 2014
kenliles fantastic- thanks DaveT and Sleepyhead for doing this; Really looking forward to it!�
Feb 18, 2014
Jonathan Hewitt Thanks for making the time a little earlier than the last few, us East Coasters appreciate it!�
Feb 18, 2014
AlMc +1 :wink:�
Feb 18, 2014
TSLAopt Thanks, I will try to join/watch from my ipad if I can...depends when I get home from the cooking class my wife conveniently bought for V Day for TSLA earnings of all days.�
Feb 18, 2014
Gtoffo Sadly, due to time differences (I'm in the UK right now) I won't be able to follow live. Please do leave the video online after the event as I would love to be able to watch it.
GO TSLA.�
Feb 19, 2014
DaveT I needed to change the hangout link, so here's the updated info. Please use this link below.
What: Roundtable discussion of TSLA Q4 2013 earnings presentation
Who can view: Everyone is invited to view the discussion. It will be broadcasted live and won�t have any limit to the number of people who can view.
Who will participate: The roundtable will be made up of several TMC members who�ve been invited by PM. Sleepyhead and I will be co-hosting the discussion.
What time: Tonight, Feb 19 at 6:30pm PST
How long: 1-1.5 hours
Agenda: We�ll start off with general reactions to the earnings presentation (shareholder letter and conference call) and then we�ll dive deeper into specific parts of the earnings call like financials (gross margin, revenue, etc), FY 2014 guidance, gigafactory and other areas.
Here�s the link. Live broadcast will start at 6:30pm PST tomorrow (Feb 19). We�ll probably leave up the video for those who can�t watch it live.
TSLA Q4 2013 Earnings Roundtable - YouTube (updated view-only link)�
Feb 19, 2014
Mario Kadastik Eh that's 5:30 AM for me�
Feb 19, 2014
Fast Laner Well, got to bed now and set up the alarm to 05:25:biggrin:�
Feb 19, 2014
Mario Kadastik No way with ER CC starting in 8 minutes�
Feb 19, 2014
Norse Will you guys talk about the price action the coming days and weeks? I like the fact that the gigafactory news is for next week so they prevent people from taking profit. Thou I guess my SCTY calls for this week will probably not gain to much.�
Feb 19, 2014
DaveT broadcasting starting in a couple minutes
TSLA Q4 2013 Earnings Roundtable - YouTube�
Feb 19, 2014
StapleGun Thanks for muting the mics everyone, much easier to follow now!�
Feb 19, 2014
justthateasy Glad to put faces to forum handles.
Just a little feedback about the rangebound comment. TSLA hit a ceiling at 225 AH and sold off to 215 and finished at 218.
I listened to some of the conference call and noticed that raising capital did not tank the stock price after hours. I feel that the selloff from 225 was profit taking, though this was in after hours trading so we'll see how things play out tomorrow and in the coming days leading up to the gigafactory announcement.�
Feb 19, 2014
drinkerofkoolaid If Elon announces a stock offering, I am almost positive he will buy $100-200 million of the new stock, which would establish a new bottom for the stock, and likely cause the stock to go up.
On top of this, today Doug Kass announced he was short Tesla. A lot of people listen to him, and may have followed his advice. These folks were likely expecting a huge drop after earnings, and will be covering their shorts tomorrow when the drop doesn't happen.
Solar City is the leading player in an industry that will be worth $500 billion annually in 20 years. If Solar City maintains its lead, the stock could easily be worth $500.
Solar City's largest benefits are easy access to capital, deals with Walmart and the Department of Defense, Elon Musk, and very strong relationships with the leading Solar Panel producers.�
Feb 19, 2014
FluxCap Great meeting guys, and huge thank-you to DaveT for organizing. Hope our discussion proved useful and insightful for those who viewed it.
Cheers,
Flux (Adam)�
Feb 19, 2014
kenliles Fantastic- Enjoyed it immensely
thanks DaveT and sleepy and all other participants!
will be there for the next one�
Feb 19, 2014
gym7rjm Doug Kass added to his short position in after hours making his cost basis $212... Do these guys ever learn?
On another note. Thanks to all the contributors on the Hangout, it was really informative to hear everyone's perspective on things.
What headphones were you wearing Flux? Your sound quality was the best�
Feb 19, 2014
austinEV The more I think about it, with the amount of shorts out there, especially weak shorts from this week, it really OUGHT to be a straight up day tomorrow. That will make my decisions easy. Just drink beer and stair at charts all day. (I take earnings days off work�
Feb 19, 2014
Citizen-T Thanks for the shout out. I'm here, though more in the shadows recently. I love the hangout idea, I don't know why we didn't think of it long ago.�
Feb 19, 2014
clmason I watched, thanks for sharing.
Really good stuff... I was surprised that most of you were so concerned about the global economy. I was under the impression the global economy is quite stable.�
Feb 19, 2014
FluxCap Well, Mr. Kass may just give us another gift in the morning then -- we shall see!
I use a Sennheiser PC 350 headset, and I believe the PC 360 is the new version of this headset. Sennheiser is not cheap but they make some of the best sound and recording gear in the industry. For a great alternative if you don't need/want to spend what I did on a headset, I highly recommend the Monoprice headset. Can't beat Monoprice's quality at their prices.
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Well we better see you on the next one then!
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I'm not concerned enough to change investment strategies now, I think Sleepy and I were just saying that we have to be watchful to read the warning signs if and when they come up (like the manufactured US debt ceiling crisis last year). We mainly meant that global macroeconomic risk is the biggest risk for Tesla Motors over the long term, rather than the particulars of the company's execution. Assuming a relatively stable economy, we believe they can and will continue their conquest of the energy and transportation industries virtually unabated.�
Feb 19, 2014
ke6jph Thank you to everyone for the great chat. As a Tesla long starting at 33 and buying on the way up to 109 (with a cost basis of 55), and a Solar City long from 18 (including buys of KNDI, SPWR, CSIQ) this resource keeps me strong during market fluctuations. I invested in Tesla, Solar City and KNDI before finding this site. My trust in the opinions expressed here have helped me get other people involved in investing and due diligence. All of the talk of puts, calls, ect. are way over my head, but every day, several times a day I am reading and learning. So to everyone that contributes here I THANK YOU!�
Feb 19, 2014
Norse And you can add to the fact that only strong governments with healthy economics can give incentives to the green revolution.�
Feb 19, 2014
Citizen-T So, I had this thought during the hangout today, as sleepyhead was discussing the potential of Tesla to get the battery costs down to $150/kWh. We have all considered the impact that will have on the Gen III car. But, I'm now wondering, what happens to Model S/X when the pack cost drops that low. I mean, I've always had this model of the future where Model S/X hit a combined run rate of 100k units and a steady margin of ~30%. Now it occurs to me that, when this factory is online and they are able to produce packs at such a low rate...these benefits should be applicable to Model S/X as well.
Model S is already mopping the floor with the luxury competition today (at comparable price points). If they are able to drop the cost of the battery pack by that much, they could either let all that fall straight down to the bottom line, or they could undercut the ICE competitors on cost (generating more demand). In either case, this really screws up my expectations for the portion of TSLA's earnings that come from the S/X platform (in a good way).
I haven't really put hard numbers to this idea yet. Before I did that, I was hoping you guys could vet it. Have we, in our excitement for Gen III, overlooked the impact that the Gigafactory will have on S/X?�
Feb 19, 2014
DaveT Gigafactory will definitely help S/X. Elon mentioned they need the gigafactory to achieve a 30-40% drop in battery prices to make Gen3 happen. Those prices will apply to S/X but I think they'll be realized mostly with greater range. In 3 years I imagine the 85kwh battery will be take the place of the 60kwh as the entry-level base model at $70k, which should stir demand. And Tesla will likely get close to 35% GM as well on the S/X, thanks in part to the gigafactory. In 2017-2018 I can see the Model S selling 80k (and possibly up to 100k) a year, and the Model X doing the same.�
Feb 19, 2014
Citizen-T I'm not so sure about the greater range part. I think that larger batteries will become available, but I also think that as the average consumer gets more comfortable with the EV lifestyle and the Supercharger and other charging networks get built out, they will demand less range. What I'm saying is that, when you go to buy your second Tesla, you will have a much better idea of what kind of range you need and might buy something smaller and more appropriate.
I don't think that battery range is comparable to flash storage. In a mobile device, you expect that as prices in flash memory deflate, you'll be able to buy more and more memory in each generation without the cost of the phone/tablet going up. While Tesla could follow a similar strategy with batteries, I don't think the take rate would be the same. The reason is that in each generation of a mobile device, you need more and more storage as apps get more complicated (bigger) and cameras get more powerful (photo/video size goes up) and so on. You don't drive more and more each year as a side affect of your car getting incrementally better.
So, while I expect that Tesla will offer larger battery packs in the future, I also expect they will be extremely high margin. As long as Tesla is production constrained (which will be for some time) they will probably prefer to put those additional cells towards a new car rather than have them sit idling in a Model S most of the year. If you want the luxury of having far more cells that you actually need, I think you are going to pay a premium for it.�
Feb 19, 2014
DaveT Just to clarify, I agree Tesla will offer larger battery packs and they'll be high margin. I'm just adding another option to your two options you mention about what lower battery costs could lead to. You mentioned 1) higher margin and 2) lower sticker price. I think 3) higher range is a possibility as well.
I used to think they would lower the sticker price over time but had a few things convince me otherwise. One was I've met several Tesla employees who have told me the Model S won't be going down in price, ever. Rather that range and other features will be added. Also, some smart people here (ie., bonnie) have also collaborated with this that the Model S price tag likely won't be going down.
So, that leaves higher margin and higher range as the other two options. With higher margin, I don't think they need massively lower battery prices to get super high margins. I think they're already on track to get 30%+ gross margin next year. So, I think they'll mostly use lower battery costs to add range and then also add some to gross margin. In 3-4 years it'd be nice to choose from a 85kwh battery and a 120kwh battery (rather than a 60kwh and a 85kwh like we do currently).�
Feb 20, 2014
brianman Thanks for setting this up, and others for contributing.
<- Late night viewer.�
Feb 20, 2014
CapitalistOppressor
In theory it could, but a 30GWh plant is only enough to build ~400k Model E cars (it actually can range from 300-500k depending on your model). In the conference call their expectation seemed to be that the giga-factory would only be capable of supplying the Model E, and I think that is the case if you assume it is unlikely that they will bring the plant online at full capacity right at the start of Model E production. It seems more likely they will scale it.
If so, then the Model S will likely have to continue to rely on its existing suppliers in the near term. Long term, the giga-factory is going to be the first of many, and is only designed to get Tesla through the period when their production is solely coming out of Freemont.
Once they outgrow Freemont they will need to build new giga-factories in conjunction with new automotive factories. In that longer term (starting around 2019) Tesla will likely have enough capacity to supply the S platform from their own factories. Whenever that occurs (near or medium term) they will realize substantial savings.
If anyone wants to model it, it seems likely that the S platform will need ~10GWh/yr worth of batteries (depending on your assumptions), with a cost per car (at the cell level, not total pack) of ~$17.5k using current arrangements, and potentially ~$11.9k if supplied by Tesla.
Or the per cell cost basis (which probably wont change much as chemistries improve) is currently ~$2.5/cell and should be able to be cut to ~$1.7/cell.
I expect the S platform to retain 7,000 cells in this near future (5,000 for 60kWh), with chemistry improvements being translated directly into increased range (lower cost/kWh), while the Model E will likely use 4,000 cells (for the longer range model), with a targeted range in 2017 equivalent to the current Model S (265ish). There will also be a car with a 200 mile range with fewer cells, which is the one that will be priced in the ~$35k range, but I expect the market to gravitate towards the larger battery, just as it has with the S.
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I largely agree with the bulk of your post. The only area I disagree is with the timeline. EV customers in this decade will only be an edge case, and ranges using the current number of cells in the Model S are unlikely to climb above 400 miles for the top end model. Virtually all of these customers will be purchasing an EV for the first time, and will not be persuaded that they can get by with 100 mile city cars.
And as a practical matter there are real advantages to battery durability (and thus customer value) by having a large battery. I don't see any reason not to think that in the U.S. (at least) cars with 300 miles of range will be the norm for the foreseeable future.
But whether that settles there, or at 150 or 200 miles, we wont know what the bulk of experienced EV owners will accept until well into the next decade.
Whatever range it settles at, I fully expect the market to develop from that point onwards exactly as you said. My guess though is that even jaded consumers will want 300 mile ranges.�
Feb 20, 2014
mulder1231 Well done DaveT and company! I was glued to the iPad, loved the discussion.
I actually proposed a breakout session like this at TESLIVE last summer to most of these guys. The idea was the same, group discussion with the big brains of TMC investor thread about TSLA investment logic, short and long term. At the time, most of you declined as you didn't want to share their opinions in front of a live audience. I guess it's different with an online audience ;-)�
Feb 20, 2014
Theshadows I think a major reason that Tesla wants to get moving on the gifafactory right away is they want to get the kinks worked out of their processes and their supply chains. If they can get the factory up and running in 2 years and have all the kinks worked out a year after they come online then they should be primed and ready for when the gen III is ready to start being produced.�
Feb 20, 2014
kenliles That lines up with my logic (or illogic as the case may be). Note another little piece, Elon said they will have a good solution to city dweller charging. Coupled with SC network I'm guessing the effective comfort range(5 year horizon) will be around 180(maybe less), with a single option for doubling to 360. The market proportions are just undeniable graphically depicted here:
The incredible GDP map that shows half of U.S. output is generated by a few cities - Capitol Report - MarketWatch�
Feb 20, 2014
Citizen-T OK. Thanks for the clarification. It actually sounds like we agree then.
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To be fair, my reasoning was that I couldn't make it to TESLIVE at all because of prior commitments.
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Agree with this. But there is no way they are going to pay one price for Model E cells and a much higher price for Model S/X cells. The presence of the gigafactory in the marketplace should drive down the cost of all cells. Now, given the supply constraint, I don't expect that all cells will get down to gigafactory levels (they wouldn't be profitable, probably) but I do expect those prices to be under significant pressure. Yes?�
Feb 20, 2014
kenliles I wonder what the Giga Factory cost advantage will produce proportionally between cells and pack, coupled with the current proportion of cost between the two, then layer that with chemistry gains between now and 3 years. It might form a matrix that allows some of the cost gains to be realized in the current S/X battery plant while not inducing production requirements from the GigaFactory�
Feb 20, 2014
ggr We did end up having a lunch time breakout on investment; in fact it was so popular it had to be split between two places, which is a pity. Nevertheless very valuable I thought.�
Feb 20, 2014
DaveT I'm looking forward to the next google+ hangout. I've invited CapitalOppressor as the special guest to share his thoughts on the gigafactory. I plan to wait until after Tesla announces the gigafactory conference call date and then schedule the hangout for the evening of the conference call or the next day so we have a lot of topics to talk about.�
Feb 20, 2014
mitch672 The Model S and Model X will benefit from lower battery costs because of the gigafactory, but because of the "RVG" on the leases, the pricing will not be lowered on the Model S/X until those leases have been paid off or the cars returned. Tesla is acutely aware of the aftermarket, and even the number of cars under the RVG for each quarter (it's listed in the 4th quarter share holder report) so they have no incentive to lower the new pricing of the Model S/X, until those expire. They will certainly have better margins though, and the newer cars will probably get more "standard" equipment.. The pricing however, will not change.
Btw, nice hangout last night�
Feb 20, 2014
FluxCap Sounds great, Dave.�
Feb 20, 2014
Ubbe I believe that is an important point to make, -that besides range, a larger battery gives you the possibility of even better battery care and management (keeping it at the midrange SOC most of the time).
Sometimes when battery sizes is discussed there is a bit too much focus is on range. Forgetting that the battery is energy storage and that the energy is used for things like Climate Control, battery heating, sound, user interface et c as well as for driving the car forward (i e range).
A bigger battery can also enable faster (super) charging, perhaps not dramatically so, but it can shave off a couple of minutes here and there.
So even if Tesla have been pretty clear about that their cars will not get a range much more than the distance between two Superchargers (and rightly so), that does not rule out a larger capacity battery pack than the current one for reasons other than range. The question is of course how much more is practical and economical.�
Feb 20, 2014
Robert.Boston We should think about whether we can do a hangout at TMC Connect this July. The lunch sessions were nice but too short and split. The addition of adult beverages would have been an improvement, too.
We are in a great location this year, so I hope many of you will attend.�
Feb 21, 2014
clmason So what is Sleepy's big story (per the Hangout)? I'm going to kick off the speculation because, well, its fun! And with TSLA soaring there's no harm in being just a bit off topic and silly.
1) Sleepy's Mega Options Win War Story
2) Sleepy is starting a "TMC Friend & Family" Investment Fund
3) Sleepy is starting his own Investing Site
4) Sleep is buying Texas with his TSLA investment gains and plans to settle the Dealer dispute once and for all.�
Feb 21, 2014
FluxCap 5) Sleepy helped someone make enough from an investment to afford a critical life expense because he's just that good a guy. That's my theory anyway!�
Feb 21, 2014
austinEV I really thought it was going to be #2.... he refused my money though so I think that isn't it�
Feb 21, 2014
Mitthrawnuruodo Gentleman, I really enjoyed the hangout, thanks for making it public. I think the idea of creating a Macro-economics/general market thread is golden. I have talked to a couple people on TMC who trade vxx and uvxy options when things are going a bit nuts (think international wars and congress debt-ceilings). I will look for that thread to start and hopefully have more to contribute there than I do with Solar/Tesla. Also looking forward to sleepy's story.�
Feb 22, 2014
Gtoffo Guys, thanks for the Hangout. It was great discussion and a lot of fun to see all of your faces for the first time :-D
Thanks DaveT for organizing this. Looking forward to the next hangout.�
Feb 22, 2014
Norse He has already done #3 so I guess it is number 1.�
Feb 24, 2014
FrozenCanuck Hey all,
Did you remove the hangout video? I was looking forward to watchingit. Long time lurker here, and I finally registered so I could participate. I wasn't going to join another community but this one is fantastic and I'm a massive fan of the car/company, as well as a shareholder, so it made sense.
Looking forward to the giga factory hangout. I have to tell you all ... having seen my share of crappy discussions (overly focused on short term) on Wall Street, this kind of long term thinking is WAY more productive.�
Feb 24, 2014
palmer_md see post #49 for the link.�
Feb 26, 2014
Norse When is the next?�
Feb 26, 2014
DaveT We will do a hangout after the gigafactory conference call. I've invited CapitalOpressor as a guest.�
Feb 26, 2014
Norse We have not got a date have we? I have not got the time to go read every post as I am still on vacation.�
Feb 26, 2014
DaveT No date yet. We'll set the date after Tesla announces the conference call for the gigafactory.�
Feb 26, 2014
Norse Yeah, I ment a fate for the CC, I hope it is soon since I got some calls for next week at testerdays close.�
Feb 26, 2014
Discoducky I wonder if there will be a CC in the near future. The 'what state' game could go on for a bit and I can't imagine a CC without knowing the location as that will spawn a whole bunch of questions.�
Mar 8, 2014
DaveT The next google+ hangout will be tomorrow at 9:30pm EST. I'll be interviewing someone from here who's seen a 100-200x gain in his IRA (albeit it was small initially) over the past year. What was his approach? Challenges? Regrets?
I'll post more info in a bit.�
Mar 8, 2014
kcveins I'll be travelling, but should be able to view the last half. Are you going to have the link via You Tube again? I presume it will be EDT (we jump forward tonight).�
Mar 8, 2014
DaveT Yes, we plan to have it up via the YT link as well. Also it will be tomorrow 6:30pm Pacific Time (or 9:30pm Eastern Time). Thanks for the daylight savings warning.
- - - Updated - - -
Here�s the info for tomorrow�s March 9th google+ hangout.
Special Guest: TSLAopt
Background: Tomorrow�s google+ hangout will feature special guest, TSLAopt, as he�s interviewed by host, DaveT. Last month TSLAopt shared that his IRA of humble beginnings gained 100x+ in a period of just one year (2013 Trading war stories - Page 3). Now a month later, his IRA is likely up over 150x from 13 months ago (15,000%+ gain). How did he approach TSLA a year ago? What was his strategy? How did he view the risks/rewards back then and what trades did he make? Does he have any regrets? And what lessons did he learn that he will take with him?
What time: March 9th at 6:30pm Pacific Time (9:30 Eastern Time). It will last about an hour.
Google+ hangout specifics:
Everybody is invited to join the hangout but since the hangout participants is limited to 10 people, the first 6 people after TSLAopt and DaveT will be allowed to be participants. We�ll leave 2 slots open for other people to jump in and out with questions if they have any. The format of the night will roughly be DaveT introducing and interviewing TSLAopt for the first 20 minutes or so and then opening up the time for questions from the participants and others. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.
3/10 Update, here's the link to the recorded video: (first 1hr 45min of hangout was recorded at link below)
TSLA investment hangout w/special guest TSLAopt�
Mar 8, 2014
FluxCap Looking forward to it, Dave.�
Mar 8, 2014
sleepyhead I knew it was TSLAopt.
Looking forward to it.�
Mar 9, 2014
StephenM That was great, guys. My first time watching, and a lot of fascinating insights into the thinking behind the strategies. 3 hours and 20 minutes and it wasn't boring�
Mar 9, 2014
techmaven Thanks guys, I enjoyed it as usual. Special thanks to DaveT and TSLAopt for their time and thoughts.�
Mar 9, 2014
palmer_md +1 it was great, even though I missed about 1.5 hours in the middle...I can't believe you were still going when I got back....what a marathon.�
Mar 9, 2014
FluxCap Fun and engaging discussion as usual, I think we all got sleepy-heads at the end though!
Dave - thanks so much again for organizing us.�
Mar 9, 2014
mulder1231 Thanks Dave, this was great. Quite a few topics that came up are worthy of their own future hangout session, for example:
- Elon Musk, criticality of his role, historically, now, and in the future
- Tesla the company, what will it look like 5, 10, 15 years from now (markets they will be in, products and services offerings, OEM versus IP, etc.)
- Tesla market domination and when Tesla might face real competition�
Mar 9, 2014
DaveT Thanks everyone for viewing and participating in tonight's hangout. We'll leave the recorded link up for people who weren't able to catch it live.
A special thanks to our special guest, TSLAopt - Thanks for being generous with your time and sharing, and for giving back to the community. We all appreciate it very much.�
Mar 9, 2014
StephenM I'm a firm believer in the near unlimited potential of Tesla going forward, however, what I wanted to hear was a devil's advocate of what could go wrong (in a big way) and not meaning anything personally happening to Elon, though that's of course something we have to worry about.
What I was taking away at the end is that Tesla would be a major player in the overall world market of personal vehicle manufacturing (if not THE dominant company) in the market in 15-20 years, but I have to think that something may happen within that time that wasn't discussed. Maybe some of the other big players today actually merger to rise to the challenge? I know Elon is too smart to let this happen, but what is needed to initiate a hostile takeover of Tesla? Maybe Tesla gets too dominant and the government steps in and decides to break up the company?�
Mar 10, 2014
Robert.Boston I can't see how a hostile take-over would succeed. Hostile take-overs happen to oust current management, but the current management team adds tremendous value. I just don't see this happening.
Under US law, the DOJ has no authority to break up a company because it's "too dominant." Consider Google and Apple, each of which has or had well over 50 percent shares in relevant markets, but with no required break-up by the government. To the contrary, Google recently won a case brought against it by the US DOJ, which was seeking to force Google to highlight content from competing data aggregators. US antitrust law only kicks in when a company uses anti-competitive tactics to gain the upper hand (e.g. Microsoft using its control of the Windows OS to advantage its software applications like Windows Explorer). Quite reasonably, to my way of thinking, there is no legal basis for government intervention when a company grows large by offering a product that people want to buy, which describes Tesla Motors.�
Mar 10, 2014
TSLAopt No problem. I got a lot out of everyone's insight and look forward to watching and/or participating in more Google hang outs in the future. Great job organizing�
Mar 10, 2014
Familial Rhino I'm adding my thanks to all participants for their insights, and for making this available for the rest of us who couldn't watch live. This was so much better than CNBC, it's not even funny.
Is it ok to ask a further question, on topic, in this thread? TSLAOpt, I'd be curious to know what the darkest moment was during this ride, or if there even was such a moment.
If this is not the right place, or you (TSLAOpt) don't feel like elaborating further, feel free to ignore the question. Thanks.�
Mar 10, 2014
TSLAopt no problem...darkest moments were
a)after the run up to 110ish then the consolidation down to the 80s for what seemed like forever before rising to the 120s. (reminds me a bit of what could be going on now)
and
b)when the car fire hit the drop from 194 to the 120s...that time period seemed to last forever and didn't know when it would find a floor. This was especially tough because it was during this drop that my broker made TSLA non-margineable and I had to really scramble to avoid very terrible tax consequences on massive short term gains (ie. paying 40+% tax instead of 20% tax, not counting 6-7% state taxes).
while one might think that infamous Goldman Sachs move from 130s to 108 was dark...it actually wasn't bad because it only lasted one day (the next day TSLA rebounded back above 120 I believe) and I actually bought a small amount of cheap Sept 145 calls and Jan 2015 145 Calls that morning at the low on margin (this was before my broker made TSLA unmargineable when I could do things like that on the fly).�
Mar 10, 2014
kcveins Thanks for hosting. Sorry I had to bail after an hour.�
Mar 10, 2014
xhawk101 Trying to find the hang out where do you connect�
Mar 10, 2014
FluxCap The hangout took place last night. You can view the recorded video here:
TSLA investment hangout w/special guest TSLAopt - YouTube�
Mar 10, 2014
alexeiw123 That first guy talking is a really great success story! Wish i invested in TSLA back when it was low as well!
Oh. first post here, Hi from Australia.�
Mar 10, 2014
Theshadows Who is the third guy from the left? He was talking about batteries around 35 minutes.
Also someone mentioned moving an entire portfolio to another broker. I'd like to know more about that too.�
Mar 10, 2014
Sus TSLAopt, thanks from me also for sharing your story and your investment philosophy with tsla. I am curious what motivated you to want to purchase the model s and also the model x when in comes out.
From an investment perspective, did it help you to own the car vs just test driving it? Ie did it help in gauging how good of a product it is? Also do you feel like you need to own the model x when it comes out vs just test driving it?�
Mar 10, 2014
StephenM Thanks for your insight about these questions�
Mar 11, 2014
Ocelot thanks so much for hosting that, dave. also thanks to all the participants.
it wrapped up right before the answer to the question about what will be the first crack we might see, as a warning for a significant market downturn. i was wondering about the response?�
Mar 11, 2014
30seconds I thought the US gov could break up dominant firms and have so in the past with MaBell and Standard Oil�
Mar 17, 2014
DaveT Mark your calendars. Google+ hangout this Sunday 3/23 (6:30pm Pacific Time) with CapitalOppressor. More details coming later.�
Mar 17, 2014
FluxCap Sweet!�
Mar 17, 2014
Zextraterrestrial cool. after watching the last couple, I read your comments in your voice now :wink:
(and a couple of other people's posts too)�
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