Thứ Năm, 1 tháng 12, 2016

2014 Q4 Earnings Report and Conference Call part 2

  • Feb 11, 2015
    Hogfighter
    Someone forgot to hit the 'attach' button.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Zaxxon
    At 4 PM they sent the press release saying it'd be released at 5 PM. Tossing that through the Tesla Time calculator for a one-hour estimate, I come up with 5:17 PM for a possible 'actual arrival' time. (;))
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    StapleGun
    It hasn't been posted yet. More discussion about it is going on in the short term thread.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    yngwie_2012
    elon forget to delegate to do that thing online :))
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Clprenz
    INCORRECT
    PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 02/11/15 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2014, today at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern Time) by posting the current Shareholder Letter on its website.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Hogfighter
    Maybe Veronica Wu was in charge of it.....
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Zaxxon
    Right; that's what I said.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    StapleGun
    It will be posted without the delivery numbers though. Those will roll out as an update by 6pm.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Theshadows
    Haha, he fired the person that was responsible for posting the letter.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Zaxxon
    Correct. And over the next couple months the margin will increase through torque sleep improvements.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Clprenz
    I'm confused... it's already 5PM eastern....
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    eepic
    It's live!
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Hogfighter
    "The person responsible for the sacking, has been sacked."
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    hockeythug
    Letter looks like its up.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    yngwie_2012
    its out i thing going down fast...
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Zaxxon
    I was close. It hit at 5:16... Link.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    tga
    Posted!
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    30seconds
    Its been delayed. But it will be a much better press release than anyone outside of Tesla has seen.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    davecolene0606
    K, updated note says shareholder letter should have been released 16 minutes ago @ 14:00 PST.

    Anyone seen it yet?
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Zaxxon
  • Feb 11, 2015
    v12 to 12v
    Don't forget that it is Pacific Time. Don't start your bots yet!
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    favo
    Seems to be there now. Executive Summary:

    Tesla Motors � Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2014 Shareholder Letter
    � Introduced All-Wheel Drive Dual Motor Model S & Autopilot in Q4
    � Record quarterly production of 11,627 vehicles
    � Delivered 9,834 vehicles, as P85D production delays pushed some to Q1
    � Expanded Supercharger network to cover US coast to coast & most of Europe
    � Expecting over 70% growth in vehicle deliveries in 2015
    � Model X to begin shipping in six months
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    gen3_in_utah
    Thanks for the link.
    I kept hitting refresh on the IR page and got no updates.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    hobbes
    Removed full text of report, too long. Downloading works fine now - see link posted above.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    NigelM
  • Feb 11, 2015
    ZenMan
    In 2015, we expect to deliver about 55,000 Model S and X vehicles, representing more than a 70% increase over 2014deliveries
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    sub
    Model x shipping in 6 months
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    yngwie_2012
    weird shareholder letter...im not sure how to interpret it...
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    hockeythug
    Tesla starting to personally install charging systems in China customers� homes and businesses.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Tuxedo
    You are not the only one, obviously. Crazy vol in the AM.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    dha
    10K Model S and 20K Model X...that's over half the ENTIRE YEAR'S production capacity already reserved.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    yngwie_2012
    cant find the total number of deliveries in 2014? they say production goal met but obviously not deliveries..
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Twiddler
    That it how it has been for the last 2-3 quarters
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    30seconds
    Seems to all come back to the production / delivery problems in Q4. If 1400 deliveries slipped that would be about $140m, which when added to the reported $1.1B revenues would have matched estimates of $1.23B.

    2015 guidance for 55,000 units, but with 10k goal in Q1 means that there is some back end loading excepted. Higher margins probably the best surprise.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    FredTMC
    Thats in the letter?! Thx
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Hogfighter
    Precisely. Demand is, and has never been, not the issue. Won't be for a long time.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    yngwie_2012
    im afraid stock will fall under 200$ a.h. if elon doesnt say something jawdropping in the earnings call..
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    flankspeed8
    I hope that Tesla will actually decide to act like a real publicly traded company as far as distributing ER's. You should have seen the people on CNBC trying to make heads or tails of this letter. They even made a comment how this is not like a 'real earnings report' rather it is 'a letter that can be hard to decipher' These are approximate quotes.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    hockeythug
    Page 2, paragraph 3.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    30seconds
    not exactly since they probably have capacity for 45-50k Model S and 5-10k Model X
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Benz
    Customer deposits: 257,587 (December 31st, 2014)


    - - - Updated - - -

    2015 Outlook

    In 2015, we expect to deliver about 55,000 Model S and X vehicles, representing more than a 70% increase over 2014
    deliveries. About 40% of these deliveries are planned for the first half of the year. First quarter production is expected to be
    about 10,000 vehicles due to it being a shorter quarter than in Q4 and approximately a week of factory downtime to allow the
    workforce to rest and tooling upgrades. Cars in transit to Europe and Asia must grow to support those markets, so we plan to
    deliver approximately 9,500 vehicles in Q1, an increase of over 47% from Q1 last year. In Q1, we expect to directly lease about
    the same percentage of cars that we did in Q4.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    nleggatt
    Am I correct that equates to 51,000 reservations/deposits in Dec14? (that 257,587 is in 1,000's)
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    FANGO
    They said 40% of deliveries for 2015 will happen in 1H.

    ---------------

    Edit: I've had twitter up and it's hilarious how many people on there are focusing on capex, complaining that TSLA should be tanking because they spent money. As if a 50% growth company spending money is somehow a bad sign.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    aznt1217
    Not bad.

    Missed 1,354 deliveries which we will see shifted into Q1. This will be baked into the price. What was good was the GM despite the FX pressure and retooling pressure faced.

    Delivered 31,655 Cars in Total for 2014. 2015 will see some good revenue drivers namely the CPO car sales which is why TSLA is reorganizing its financial reporting later in the year.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Benz
    Non-GAAP revenue was $1.1 billion for the quarter, up 44% from a year ago, while GAAP revenue was $957 million.
    Automotive revenue for Q4 includes $42 million of powertrain sales primarily to Daimler. It also includes $86 million of total
    regulatory credit revenue, of which $66 million came from the sale of ZEV credits.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    Shareholder letter says:

    If Tesla produced 35,000 vehicles but failed to deliver 1,400 vehicles by the end of December, does this mean they delivered 33,600 vehicles? Or am I missing something?
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    CHGolferJim
    How did you calculate?
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    aznt1217
    I looked at all the past shareholder letters and added up the quarters.

    6457 Q1
    7579 Q2
    7785 Q3
    9834 Q4
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    drinkerofkoolaid
    This is going to be a fun conference call. The analysts will need to ask Elon questions about things that haven't been asked before. This will give Elon the opportunity to provide new information about just about every area of Tesla's operations.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    AlMc
    Could be more loaner/service cars make up the difference as more stores....??
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Eclectic
    I think they are saying that they did only deliver 33.6k vehicles. The other 1400 couldn't be put in customers' hands prior to 1/1/15 for one reason or another, even though the cars had been built.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    gen3_in_utah
    I just did the math from the 4 quarterly letters.
    They delivered 31655 vehicles in 2014.

    reduced goal was 33,000.
    slip of 1,400 vehicles in 1Q 2015 -> 31,600 delivered in 2014
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    yngwie_2012
    i think your right..
    glad that i didnt buy too much, will get more tomorrow if it falls below 200$
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    chickensevil
    Just want to throw this out there: "we entered 2015with over 10,000 orders for Model S andalmost 20,000 reservations for Model X."

    So we can officially lop off about 4-5k from the Model X tally and that 10k number should also help us in sorting out the weird price disparity on the deposits number.

    But, that 10k number does say that Q1 is officially sold out :D
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    mdemetri
    31655 delivered in 2014.

    I could not find this in the letter but added up the deliveries in the 4 quarters to get 31655.


    edit: With the 1400 slip, it would have been 33055, just meeting the reduced target.:redface:
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    aznt1217
    6457 q1
    7579 q2
    7785 q3
    9834 q4
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    30seconds
    Would match the $3.2B in automotive revenue reported
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    aznt1217
    Yea that Model X number is after deferrals and conversions to D Model S' which is bananas for a car that hasn't been driven or seen yet.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Benz
    Q4 2014: 9,834

    2014: 31,655

    That's 9,178 more than in 2013 (22,477).

    That's 40.83% more deliveries than in 2013.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Citizen-T
    If 1400 cars were built in Q4 and delivered in Q1...they are totally sandbagging Q1, right?

    Are they really saying that they built 11,627 in Q4 but are only going to build and deliver an additional 8,100 (9,500 - 1,400) in Q1 because the factory is going to have a week off? That seems a little light to me.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    yngwie_2012
    i think the fundementals are not bad..ill decide if i buy more after listening to elon conf.call
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Joel
    In 2014, Tesla Produced 35,120 Cars and Delivered 31,655 Cars.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    Thanks. I am confused though, unless a ton of cars (as mentioned in another post above) were allocated to service center loaners and store demos. It looks like Tesla missed guidance by 4.2%. My guess is that there will be a slight hit to the share price in the short term, because the rumor mill had already been saying there would be a miss.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    flankspeed8
    Isn't this counter-intuitive? The more muddled and confusing they make it, the more ripe it is for speculation and manipulations. Just report the number of cars delivered period!
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    pGo
    I would have liked Tesla to kill the Q1, but still NO. The 2015 projection is exactly what I expected. 55K. I will not expect a single car more than that to be delivered knowing how Tesla puts out numbers. I expect Andrea James to re-adjust the target downward, and may be a few others will do so too.

    Model X being out in 6 months, that's a positive. However, that does not translate into overall shipment growth into 2015 provided 50K Model S delivery (No more mentioned in this letter). Overall I am not very impressed by the results.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    Shareholder letter says there are 30 Model X Betas undergoing evaluation, and "Release Candidate" vehicles expected in March. I'm guessing that means a product reveal in the April/May timeframe, depending on how pleased the company is with the RCs.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    schonelucht
    No. They exited 2014 with over 10k model S reservations and slightly under 20k model X reservations. It's in the letter.

    - - - Updated - - -

    It's generally a bit better than I expected.

    Negatives : Big mis on the deliveries. 30% GM seems far away especially because currency will also depress margins by 2% this quarter.

    Can be taken either way : Not opening new markets as aggressively any more but focusing on operational efficiency instead.

    Positives : Increased guidance upwards for 2015 (from 50k to 55k). Model X on track and even timeline on what's happening the coming months. Strong order book with 30k units.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Joel
    Sales.png
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    chickensevil
    They did: Delivered 9,834 vehicles, as P85D production delays pushed some to Q1

    That's the third bullet on the top of the letter... I don't see how that is confusing. We needed a little over 11k to make guidance... we didn't have that. It is black and white...
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Benz
    Expected deliveries in 2015: 55,000

    H1 2015: 22,000 (40%) Model S only
    H2 2015: 33,000 (60%) Model S + Model X

    Q1 2015: 9,500 (Model S only)
    Q2 2015: 12,500 (Model S only)
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    drinkerofkoolaid

    I agree. Understanding the report enough to comprehensively write about it, requires actually reading it. I suppose this would make it harder for major newspapers to make "mistakes" when writing about it.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    flankspeed8
    I meant deliveries for 2014. There have been people doing back of the envelope math trying to figure this out. I missed that bullet point though. I was caught up in the narrative where they were talking about meeting their production goal but deferring into 1Q because of bad weather, vacation, etc. MY BAD
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    StapleGun
    I'm having trouble reconciling these statements:

    6 months from today would be August 11th.

    The middle of summer would be August 6th so technically anything after that could be considered late summer, but the wording makes me think late August/early September for the body assembly to start. After that they have to do send the X's through the paint shop for the first time. This raises the question, how long would it take to get bodies through a brand new assembly line and paint shop? Knowing what we do about the P85D delays I would expect a few weeks at least which would be pushing up against the end of Q3 and closer to 8 months from today. I really hope they are going back to the "under-promise over-deliver" strategy here but I am very skeptical of the 6-month figure right now.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Subhuman
    I think the confusing part is that they met their production target of 35,000 but only delievered 31,655 which is a difference of 3,345 not 1,400.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Bobbyducati
    as ridiculous as that sounds, i can believe it.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    FredTMC
    My thoughts exactly.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    Overall I'm neither pleased nor displeased with these results. The delivery miss is disappointing, but progress on the Model X and Gigafactory is good. Looking forward to the conf. call.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    30seconds
    my take is that they are right on track. 40% growth in deliveries from 2013 to 2014 with an expected 75% growth from 2014 to 2015. revenue growth from $2B to $3.1B, with growth to $5.5B in 2015. continued WW roll out. significantly upgraded product rolled out in late 2014 with product line expansion in Q3 2015.

    I expect 2015 to really be about 1. execution of 55k units + initial Model X roll out 2. more visibility into longer term demand at high end across WW geographies and 3. progress to making high-volume Model 3. This is the set up for 2016 and beyond as I believe that the current stock price is projecting tesla to be a $10-$15B revenue company and not $30-$50B one.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    CHGolferJim
    Model X SHIPPING in 6 months (August), not taking orders.........
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    v12 to 12v
  • Feb 11, 2015
    pGo
    I just don't expect any surprise from them. No word on where production stands right now. That says they are not producing linearly. A few people here were going for 1200/week rate. Hopefully, they'll correct the numbers now.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Citizen-T
    How many analysts are modeling 30% margins for Model S by year end? I suspect that another couple percentage points per car is going to make a bunch bigger difference than 55k versus 65k cars in total. I wouldn't necessarily expect analysts to revise downward based on what I've seen so far.

    A slip of 1400 cars is no big deal since they were produced on time. I mean, I'd rather they were delivered in 2014, but presumably they were delivered, what a week later? I mean, that hurts for anyone playing weekly options on the conference call, but if you even have one-quarter time frame then this is a non-event. Would have been a much bigger deal if they weren't built at all.

    I know that's the big shiny number. The one that is easy to compare expectations versus results, but the line we are drawing for when the music stopped is arbitrary and meaningless (again, unless you are playing the ER itself).
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    RationalOptimist
    Impressive production. GM disappointing. The 26% only achieved by large ZEV sales. 2015 guidance a little disappointing. Implies only 5k Model X sales in 2015.

    Overall strategy looks wise though. The pell-mell growth hasn't worked perfectly this year, with China, Germany slow. So makes sense to cool it just a little, get the details right, and let the existing business build at a more natural pace. Meanwhile go pell-mell at the GigaFactory trying to get that ready. when all's said and done, S and X are the sideshow, brand-building precursor to the real action.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    aznt1217
    I really hope the question of lack of demand is not brought up. I think that's why they finally put a little tid bit in there about reservations. In addition, because Elon's words were so twisted at NAIAS I think that's why they put a note about GAAP vs. Non-GAAP
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    FredTMC
    Elon should talk about "seat gate". This really was an understandable problem. Bad seat airbags from vendor. 4.9 safety rating instead of 5.0
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Joel
    Where do you see "not taking orders?"
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    aznt1217
    I think the GM's modeled were quite spot on with the only questions being ZEV and FX impact (nobody can forecast this to a T) I'm glad they met their production targets because that tells me it was the Holiday logistical jams that companies experience that messed them up. My takeaways from this call is that execution is on point in 2015 but there were a few hiccups in 2014 to prepare for 2015.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    v12 to 12v
    The delivery miss may be disappointing but it was expected due to the problems the West Coast ports were having.

    Containers were not available and ships were not available. It is likely a major reason they decided to expand their options by shipping via rail when they did. It likely took some time to get the new logistics sorted out. A week or two delay in deliveries considering the complications sounds good to me. The port problems are not over yet though.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Citizen-T
    Yeah, that was a serious question though. Does anyone know what the current projections are for Model S margins from analysts? I can't try to track it down right now.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    dmunjal
    That difference is more than 1400 that were delayed.

    And shouldn't the delayed 1400 cars be added to the 55000 total for 2015?
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Joel
    I believe Tesla is highlighting that they did build 35,000. And "1,400" were delivered in Q1 2015 due to delays, but had those delays not occurred, Tesla would have built 35K and delivered 33K in 2014.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    eepic
    Note: Elon is physically located at SpaceX HQ currently (seen in the live webcast). Most likely he got JB and Deepak to join him there and they'll head to a conference room shortly, after the second falcon stage 2 burn in about 20 minutes.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    chickensevil
    You do realize that the other headquarters is right next door, right? He has like 30 minutes to walk next door. Not that it matters as the call can happen anywhere. But I am just saying...
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Benz
    Total Model S deliveries in 2015: about 47,500
    That's just over 150% of the 2014 total Model S deliveries of 31,655.

    H1 2015: 22,000 Model S
    H2 2015: 25,500 Model S + 7,500 Model X

    Q1 2015: 9,500 (Model S only)
    Q2 2015: 12,500 (Model S only)

    Q3 2015: 12,500 Model S + 2,500 Model X
    Q4 2015: 13,000 Model S + 5,000 Model X

    Total 2015: 55,000 (= 47,500 Model S + 7,500 Model X)

    Would that make sense?
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    eepic
    You're absolutely correct.. for some reason I thought Tesla factory in Fremont. Anyway the only relevance I had in mind was sometimes Elon/JB/Deepak mute their phone to discuss something online in the middle of the call, so he was potentially in a different location than JB/Deepak it would be more difficult.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    hobbes
    First time I see them mentioning what Lathrop is for.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    chickensevil
    Haha! No worries, I figured you were thinking of Fremont or some such. And yes, I am sure they will still all be in the same room. If not, you could always have skype up on one screen and the webcast/cc on the other, this way you could mute the webcast mic if you needed.

    - - - Updated - - -

    You might have missed it, since it wasn't really spelled out in print anywhere else. It was asked about during the Annual Shareholders meeting in June, and I believe it had been brought up a couple other times. But again, I don't think it was ever put in print so it is easy to have missed. The goal being to move some of the things offsite (but close by) so they could have more room at Fremont.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    apacheguy
    Anyone ask about the battery swap station? Seems like it's all been built, just waiting on when it'll open.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Cosmacelf
    I don't think so. Isn't Tesla HQ in Palo Alto? SpaceX is in the Los Angeles area, and while there is a Tesla facility right next door, it is not the HQ.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    CHGolferJim
    Not in the letter....was referring to earlier discussions about "this summer" and folks wondering whether that meant taking orders, shipping or making sales.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    RobStark
    When did Tesla become Fiat Chrysler Automobiles with HQ in Detroit and Turin but London for tax purposes and registering the holding company in Amsterdam ? :tongue:

    Tesla HQ is in Palo Alto and Tesla Design is in Hawthorne next to SpaceX.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    FredTMC
    Hawthorne Tesla location is the tesla Design Studio. Franz's office... :)
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    MikeC
    Nothing especially exciting in the report but my confidence is up seeing that they continue to be right on track. Model X coming along, GF for 2016, demand is not an issue. Something promising that the market might not realize for a while:

    "Growth of sales, general and administrative expenses in Q1 will be more modest as we will be particularly focused on increasing operational efficiency. In total, our operating expense growth should slow significantly. We expect 2015 operating expenses to grow 45% to 50% annually, as compared to doubling in 2014."
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Thumper
    We should hear something about X debut and configurator soon if they are going to confirm orders, source quantities and deliver in 6 months.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    FredTMC
    Yep. Great observations. Wonder if they'll be on time for the call. Starts NOW

    ok. Here we go...
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    efxjim
    link?
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    flankspeed8
  • Feb 11, 2015
    hockeythug
    Again with the CapEx questions.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    mibaro2
    nicely putting the China issue to rest.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    MikeC
    "Pretty sure people in China want the best car in the world."

    Love it.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Gerasimental
    Defended Tom Zhu, but angry that sales teams told potential customers that charging is hard in China.

    Wonder if that's related to the recent e-mail rumours.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    sundaymorning
    Elons right, there's no misconception in Hong Kong, and Hong Kong is much more crowded than China in terms of people per SF. There's less parking and more high rises per SF in Hong Kong. Must have been an internal issue with incompetent execs.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    mibaro2
    again CAPEX? !!
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    chickensevil
    Love the Accounting 101... since so many people want to hate on Tesla's non-GAAP numbers. If that wasn't clear enough to someone then they need to step away from Tesla and finances altogether.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Boom! TSLA is worth just as much as Apple :D
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    StapleGun
    Paraphrasing Musk: My personal opinion is that we will have a similar market cap in 10 years as AAPL currently does ($700 billion).
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Bobbyducati
    did he just say ******** (BS)?
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    hockeythug
    Correct. haha.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    avatar
    Damn. wow.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    aznt1217
    That's... a very bold statement.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    hockeythug
    Taking shots at Apple's spending. Haha
    �
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