Thứ Năm, 1 tháng 12, 2016

2014 Q4 Earnings Report and Conference Call part 1

  • Dec 20, 2014
    Jackl1956
    The fourth quarter draws nigh.
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  • Dec 21, 2014
    SebastianR
    Indeed - and with the latest movements in the stock, I wonder if this could be another short-squeeze of sorts? And what do we expect in terms of more concrete 2015 guidance? Will there be more details on Model X and beyond?
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  • Dec 21, 2014
    Benz
    Will the delay of the deliveries of the P85D (due to extra tests) result in a lesser total number of Tesla Model S deliveries in Q4 2014? Or will that have no impact at all?
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  • Dec 21, 2014
    Todd Burch
    Assuming they get those cars out the door by end-of-quarter, I think it should have minimal impact. They seem to have just been pulled off the line and set aside, while the line continued for other cars.

    The big question mark is whether they get those sidelined cars into customer hands by midnight Dec. 31.
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  • Dec 22, 2014
    Jackl1956
    I'm wondering how many P85D will be delivered, and how that will affect GAAP profitability. Any thoughts?
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  • Dec 22, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    I figure that the ASP on a P85D is about $24,000 above the ASP for the typical mix, so gross margin is about $8,000 higher. It looks like nearly all the US deliveries in the back half of December will be P85Ds. So, 1,000 deliveries of Ds seems conservative, or $8 MM in extra gross margin. That's a WAG, but should be the right order of magnitude.
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  • Dec 24, 2014
    Benz
    Total number of Tesla Model S deliveries in 2014 will be in the range of 32,500 - 33,000.

    Q1 2014: 6,457
    Q2 2014: 7,579
    Q3 2014: 7,785

    Q1+Q2+Q3 = 21,821

    Q4 2014: 11,000 (?)

    Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = 32,821 (?)

    That's 10,344 more than the total number of Tesla Model S deliveries in 2013 (=22,477).

    Possible?
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  • Dec 24, 2014
    schonelucht
    They will hit the target production wise (an average run rate of 950-1000 cars would do it), but they will struggle to deliver that many cars imho. Some customers won't be able to take delivery in the last days of the quarter, others will have postponed due to the seating issue and a select few will have cancelled. Finding buyers for these 'orphaned' cars and shipping them in a matter of a few days over the holiday season would be quite impressive.
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  • Jan 4, 2015
    flankspeed8
    When will the release the 4Q deliveries? Is that with the earning announcement in February or do the release non-financial delivery numbers prior?
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  • Jan 4, 2015
    GSP
    Yes, with the earning announcement, not earlier. That has been Tesla's past pratice.

    GSP
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  • Jan 4, 2015
    FredTMC
    there has been exceptions... Last year at Detroit auto show Jerome pre-announced deliveries. And Apr'13, TM pre-announced as well.
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  • Jan 4, 2015
    TSLAopt
    Yes, perhaps on tomorrow night's Reddit Q&A if someone asks him he will tell us on there. I will watch that closely.
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  • Jan 4, 2015
    Cattledog
    Those two instances were associated with surprising news to the upside - the first non-GAAP profit and exceeding production numbers by 20%. So, by that two-deep pattern, an early announcement would most likely be welcome.
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  • Jan 4, 2015
    FredTMC
    I highly doubt it. Any preannoucements need to be done widely. Like Twitter or press release or media event. I don't think this Reddit session counts
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  • Jan 6, 2015
    chickensevil
    Since we are using this to maul things over a bit. I feel you should all take a peak over at the estimates being suggested for US deliveries by Inside EVs:

    December 2014 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card
    2014-sales-chart-Dec-vfinal2-750x522.png

    Now the interesting point of note here is not just the suggested 3,500 which would be a huge blowout for December alone breaking all single month EV sales records for the US. And that's great and all but then the shorts would just say: "Yeah, so what, it's the P85D driving the deliveries and demand and a single month doesn't mean demand hasn't dropped off because of how Tesla chunks orders":

    Well OK there mister Short. But I request that you do the math on Oct and Nov. I believe you will find that number comes in at 6,000. This in important because this 6,000 number breaks the old single quarter US record for Tesla which was set at 5150 for Q2/2013. Take that Paulo Santos (Yeah, I have been dying to throw that one back in his face finally... and the sweet sweet taste of victory has never felt so good). For those who write SA articles... *nudge nudge* 32no... you should consider a take down piece to blow up his thesis finally. If you will notice, he normally is real quick to write a monthly sales article restating the same data in a different set of numbers that demand has peaked. I think you can make a couple pennies off of this information :D

    I know we don't have official numbers yet, and I hope I am not counting chickens before they hatch, but I dare say that all around this quarter should finally put to bed the notion of failing demand. And also keep in mind that the beauty of Oct and Nov is that they don't include ANY amount of P85D sales. So anyone who canceled their orders or otherwise would have shifted out of Oct and Nov deliveries still gave us an all around strong quarter for the US.

    With US making up almost half of the needed deliveries to hit targets I feel really great about this quarter. Outside of the seat issues and such which got resolved in time for the December stuff we should have had enough overseas deliveries to cover the remaining half since there was no other major issues at the factory, or am I forgetting something?
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  • Jan 6, 2015
    dmckinstry
    CE,

    I'm not sure where you get 6000 for Oct. & Nov. Do you mean 6000 for the quarter?
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  • Jan 6, 2015
    schonelucht
    US demand is roughly twice as high as even the most positive analysis anticipated for in 2012. While Asia/Europe/US were supposed to each contribute 33% to sales, US strength shifts those numbers to 25/25/50 : 17 300 in the US, 8500 in Europe, leaves 7200 cars for the rest of the world to meet 33k. It's going to be tight to meet guidance.
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  • Jan 7, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    And even if that's true, just goes to show how right Elon was when he said they have aces up their sleeves to stimulate sales if they want to. If a large enough part of that 3500 December number is P85Ds that's going to drive margins/profits through the roof. Q1 should look similar due to P85D deliveries to the rest of the world.

    Coming up next? Signature deilveries of the X, again with a high margin. And I am still optimisitc the X will introduce a bigger battery option, probably making the 85 the base model, resulting in a similar rush for Model S P110Ds or whatever they'll be in, say, Q4 2015.
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  • Jan 7, 2015
    chickensevil
    Yes, sorry if that wasn't clear. 6,000 for the quarter.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Do we have all the European numbers? I thought some were still missed last I saw. In either case, I am not too worried China has been doing quite well enough for us and I am sure that this quarter is no different (nevermind HK, Japan, and AU)
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  • Jan 7, 2015
    schonelucht
    No, we don't have all the European numbers yet. 8500 estimate leaves some slack for the mainly smaller markets that still need to report. The largest possible surprise at the upside could be if Tesla produced a batch of cars for the British market combined with those for the Australian market.
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    schonelucht
  • Feb 4, 2015
    chickensevil
    I had thrown together an initial spreadsheet of each country, their 2014 sales, and then their stores, service centers, and supercharger counts for Europe. I took the time to expand that based on the rough estimates made here and elsewhere on the sales breakdowns for the other parts of the world. For China, because of the way Tesla has it listed on their website "Find Us" page, Hong Kong got thrown in with China.

    Finally the "effectiveness" column (which is what really spawned me to do this in the first place) was just a simple division of Tesla "exposure" to the country versus their number of sales. So 17 would mean that per 1 piece of Tesla presence they are generating 17 sales a year. Some countries are more favorable to EVs with incentives which skews their numbers higher, I have no good way of measuring that impact. I also mentioned it in the EU outlook thread that it might be better to weight say a store with a value of 3, a service center a value of 2, and a supercharger with a value of 1 or .5 to get a better feeling for how effective/non-effective Tesla is for a region/country/whatever. But I thought it was an interesting concept and worth sharing.

    If we can come up with a good weighting system for sales vs exposure it might help with calculating the future effectiveness of other Models in the region, and at what point a region might turn a profit for Tesla. For example the Model 3 would probably come in at a 3:1 ratio easily compared to the Model S.

    So without further ado, here is the sheet:

    Capture.PNG

    PS: I threw this here since it was no longer fitting for the EU thread, but don't know if maybe this discussion would be better suited in a different thread once this moves beyond the Q4 and or 2014 discussion.

    - - - Updated - - -

    And looking over the chart... there must be an error on the number of Superchargers... so I appologise for that. It is probably an issue with how I got the country data from the Find Us page... that or there are about 10 more locations that have come online that isn't reported on the Supercharger page or the third party site Supercharge.info
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    MikeC
    I'm pretty optimistic about this ER. The timing just feels right as we are coming back strong from an unjustified drop and the stock price is still on the low side. Every day that Tesla makes progress it becomes a more intrinsically valuable company, even if the stock price doesn't always reflect it right away.

    People worry about missing 33,000 deliveries because of the P85D issues and cars still stuck in transit at the end of December but I think that is what they were anticipating those when they lowered guidance from 35,000. At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised by as low as 32,000 deliveries given Elon's Bloomberg Betty Liu interview where he said they are on track for 32-33k. Regardless, I think people are smart enough to know that production numbers are what matters with a production-constrained company.

    I am hoping for good guidance but am keeping in mind that most people here thought 2014 guidance would be in the ballpark of 40,000 before it was announced. Elon stated 50% growth so I think anything less than 50k S+X would be disappointing.

    Remember, this was the ER we were looking forward to because of the production jump. I think the big increase in deliveries and revenue, even though already known, are going to make for good headlines. I hope we get one of those big jumps that we haven't had in a while. I am starting to think that Tesla needs the stock price up in order to finance a Model 3 factory - at a certain point it doesn't make sense to try to fit it in when they are already using more than half the capacity of Fremont just on S/X.
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    AlMc
    Mike,

    I agree with most of your scenario. What I believe you need to get the stock to move the magnitude you are referring to at this ER/CC is positive information about Gfactory (ahead of schedule or maybe a comment about improved battery chemistry), a model X reveal date, and remarks acknowledging that while they did have some production issues around the D launch that those have been fixed and the factory is producing a minimum of 1,200/week and will exit 2015 at 2,000/week and releasing some figures showing demand is increasing. We can have a good spike despite 32-33k produced and a just make/miss on EPS if we get these other positive developments.
    If we do not get these I suspect we will have to wait for Q1ER where I do expect the production issues with the D have been ironed out and we see great GMs because of all the Ds being delivered worldwide and the actual reveal of the X during Q1.
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    I don't know if people saw in the Model S subforums, but the torque sleep update has been rolling out to P85D owners, and efficiency on the D's has gone up noticeably.

    One less tough question for the conference call hopefully.
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  • Feb 6, 2015
    Benz
  • Feb 6, 2015
    Causalien
    Thank you Chickensevil for the relentless gathereing of Data for all. May we all make lots of money on the 12th.
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  • Feb 7, 2015
    aronth5
    Not a surprise but still interesting how the number spikes the last month of each quarter.
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  • Feb 7, 2015
    Papafox
    Aronth5,
    I think you see Canada treated much like the U.S. in delivery timing. For the first two months of a quarter, much of the production run is sent overseas, so that those deliveries takes place that quarter. The last month of each quarter mostly focuses on U.S. and Canadian deliveries.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    Blvr888
    It looks like there is a fair chance for CC to coincide with Spacex launch backup window on Wednesday. Has it ever happened in the past?
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    Zzzz...
    No. Never.

    I bet Musk will choose Tesla's CC if such coincidence will happen.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    aznt1217
    Interesting. I didn't realize the launch got scrubbed again due to inclement weather. I hope they can launch and land successfully by tomorrow. On the CC he may be bound to be on the call or have JB + Deephak comment instead or it can be postponed till later.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    AlMc
    Could make for some very interesting headlines if they both occur at the same time.......depnding on the outcome of each.....
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    Benz
    Which info are we the most looking forward to during the Conference Call on Wednesday (or in the Shareholder Letter)?

    - Delivery numbers in 2014;
    - Guidence delivery numbers in 2015;
    - News regarding Tesla Model X reveal date;
    - News regarding progress Gigafactory;
    - News regarding upgrade of the Tesla factory in Fremont;
    - News regarding growth/expansion plans in 2015 (more factories, more Supercharger stations, more geographical expansion);
    - balance of the reservation deposits account;
    - news regarding the Tesla Model 3;

    What else are we looking forward to?
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    uselesslogin
    So he would miss the possible chance to see the rocket land for the first time ever vs. a quarterly conference call? I just don't see that happening except maybe they move the call forward 30 minutes to 5pm or maybe he leaves 10 minutes before launch so we can be there for the landing opportunity. If they weren't trying to land this time I would agree with you.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    AlMc
    Personally, I am looking for 'hard numbers' that meet/exceed guidance and expectations. Future guidance is great but at this time in the life cycle of TM I want them to have concrete evidence of what they have achieved (which has been very good/great) versus what they want to achieve in the future. Positive guidance would be 'icing on the cake'
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    Zzzz...
    Sure he will have a monitor in front of him with live feed of lift off and landing attempt. He sure will get plenty distracted from CC at those two points. But he won't be in launch control center, it is not too critical for him to be there anyway.

    As for postponing CC scheduled several weeks ahead - Tesla is very much interested in having good relationships with Wall Street analysts. And having Elon not present during CC would also be a bad idea.

    I guess in those two 30 seconds windows he would ether try to multitask or make Deepack to answer question at hand. Tesla would still be better off with Elon contributing during most of CC.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    uselesslogin
    OK maybe - but I'll tell you if I were him I'd be hoping the thing gets toasted due to the higher re-entry velocity so as not to miss the celebration the time it does actually land. Obviously the real hope is that it does launch and land tomorrow and this whole thing is moot and Elon has another game changing event tacked onto his accomplishments.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    No way. Tesla has had a very, very difficult Q4. I have absolutely no doubt that Musk would absolutely love positive distraction that would bury 2014Q4 news, rather than have Q4 reporting and another failed landing.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    mzpolo
    typo

    As an X reservation holder I want to see the Model X sig#1 deliver date or more importantly XP7004 delivery date!!!!

    As a share holder I want to see these in this order
    - News regarding growth/expansion plans in 2015 (more factories, more Supercharger stations, more geographical expansion);
    - News regarding progress Gigafactory;
    - News regarding upgrade of the Tesla factory in Fremont;
    - News regarding Tesla Model X reveal date;
    - news regarding the Tesla Model 3;
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    chickensevil
    They won't have the specifics of the landing right away. The best they get is telemetry until well after the landing is done. This is because you can't have camera feeds and such that transmit live because they are too far off-shore and below the horizon. This is why they reported during the last one that the rocket was "lost" below the horizon. This is also why it took a good while after the landing for Elon Musk to tweet the results and it took until the next day to get video back to look at. So no, don't expect Musk to bail on Tesla.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    uselesslogin
    Huh?
    Elon Musk on Twitter:
    Elon Musk on Twitter:

    20 minutes between "launching 1 minute" and "no cigar this time."

    - - - Updated - - -

    What can I say though I would certainly be 80% SpaceX 20% TSLA if that were an option. Or maybe no TSLA at all. I just can't see anything Tesla being more important but I do see how relationships with Wall Street would be important especially because at some point SpaceX does plan to IPO. Granted, only after a Mars colony is started they say so we'll see.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    chickensevil
    Right, the landing happened at around the 9 minute mark...

    From the feed we had these markers:

    • [T + 8:30] Stage 1 trans-sonic
    • [T + 6:55] Stage 1 entry burn performed!!
    • [T + 5:20] Stage 1 boostback shutdown
    And from the AMA Musk said it would happen around the 9 minute mark.

    And if you look at the other released rocket feeds of stage 1 it has been determined based on the timestamps to happen between the 9-11 minute mark.

    Which means... it took Musk (for whatever reason) anywhere from 9-11 minutes to type 140 characters or less that the landing was a failure. This is again, because all they have to work with is the last telemetry data until the barge crew gets to the droneship to assess the success/failure. No proper signal is transmitted back to base because of it being below the horizon. At best they would get a phone call (through sat phone) on the success/failure/current status from the barge crew as they work to clamp down the rocket and work to make their way back. And video? That ain't happening until 2 days later when the ship will return to shore. So yeah... not much to be had at 6PM during the middle of the CC. With the launch happening around 6:05 at best I would expect there to be useful information at 6:25 to be had at which time they could just cut the call short or it can wait 5 more minutes until they finish. There is nothing to be had by missing the conference call unless he is going to be out on the ocean as it comes in... which would serve absolutely no purpose other than to say he was there.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    maoing
    UBS analyst Colin Langan forecast . This could explain why we saw intra-day strength about 30 minutes ago.

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  • Feb 9, 2015
    uselesslogin
    OK valid point it won't be cutting it that short and he can go down and congratulate everyone. I'm sure he will at the very least do the CC from Hawthorne though.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    Zzzz...
    Sure SpaceX streamed live feed from cameras on ASDS last time :) Reddit SpaceX fans figured out exact moment when NasaTV showed launch control center, judged reaction of SpaceX crowd who watched landing live and here is the Reddit thread discussing mission controller reaction versus Elon one(with video attached):

    Compare Elon's reaction to the crash with a mission controller's reaction. : spacex

    ASDS being over the horizon, well, you know, there is a satellite internet on yachts and on airliners...

    Bottom line: EM will be distracted during CC. But he will do CC. One option - he might stay for first 35 minutes or so, and rest of the call would be handled by Deepack and JB and whoever. But I have little doubt that EM would be there and CC would not be postponed.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    heosat
    Are you counting deliveries as sales? If so, the Australian sales are too high. 30 cars were delivered at most, possibly less.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    30seconds

    Moving a quarterly call an hour later isn't an issue. He could also do his part from wherever he is at.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    Zzzz...
    Not an issue for whom? For every person who scheduled his time weeks in advance and are relying on that schedule? To move such call to accomodate some billionaire funky and unrelated interest would be at the very least the most unrespectful thing most saw in their carriers. Most self respecting professionals at least will take notice. And many would ignore the idiot. Remember call already scheduled at 5:30pm - but it is fine because such things come with profession. But to expect people to wait another "after"hour - for what? Sure some will bite the insult. But their opinion about such moron(we could all agree about this classification at least, correct?) will be forever changed.

    Tesla will be much better off doing this particular call without EM, then trying to screw up family/real life plans of hundreds of professionals who have happens to get even bare minimum amount of self respect.

    PS. Sure I'm not talking about fans/people without schedule and others of such sort - they are irrelevant in this case.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    uselesslogin
    ??? For the record I understand your main point as far as not moving the call but billionaire funky and unrelated interest? Perhaps you are unaware that the company was recently valued at $12 billion and Elon has a majority stake in it unlike Tesla. He has made it clear Tesla plays second fiddle for that matter by preparing us for stepping down from the CEO position once Tesla is around the 500,000 vehicle mark. So, if anything, Tesla is this billionaire's funky and unrelated interest. I'll just assume this is something you may have missed since SpaceX is not as much in the public eye.

    --edit--
    Huh, nevermind looks like you are quite aware of SpaceX after reading previous posts. Now I am just confused.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    sundaymorning
    I think you are blowing this out of proportion and your comments are quite outrageous. As shareholders, we voted Elon as CEO, we realize his schedule and interest in SpaceX. Although SpaceX is a different entity than Tesla, his success in SpaceX has benefitted Tesla in ways I'm sure an engineer can only explain (use your imagination). If you feel "disrespected" you can always use your shares to vote him out, I for one will use my shares to counter yours. You may disagree with my logic, but there isn't another person I know of, that is more capable of running Tesla. As an investor with a keen eye on technology, SpaceX's success can only benefit Tesla in ways a marketing genius can wish for. Every news outlet that talks about SpaceX and Elon will undoubted bring Tesla into the conversation, this isn't to be taken lightly. If you feel you can't get past the "disrespectfulness," perhaps you are not thinking outside the box. Additionally, I think your logic of this CC being "better without Elon's" presence might be mired by you perceiving that he's personally disrespected you and other professionals. My schedule is as hectic as anyone here, I have a full time professional job and my vote is to sit, wait the 30 friggin meaningless minutes, and hear from the man himself! No way am I taking anyone else's words on my investments other than the CEO directly. If you are not contributing to the CC by personally calling in, you can always catch the recorded version of CC on Tesla's website.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    AlMc
  • Feb 9, 2015
    Zzzz...
    I was replying to comment that suggested that it "isn't an issue" to move CC one hour later. It is. It would be huge mistake and in my opinion neither Elon himself would suggest it, nor any of his managing team. Not going to happen. In worst case scenario EM just won't be present, but call would be there. In offchance if CC will be postponed(which is not unheard of), it would be rescheduled for an appropriate/excusable reason, but not because someone(EM) had to watch rocket landing real time or something like that.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    Causalien
    The person who does the scheduling should be fired if it ever occur. The person who does that understands it very well. It is not something worth thinking about or debating over. Look at the curren delay, it's rescheduled to the day before earnings. Plus Elon can just join the earnings cc with analysts remotely if needed. it's not like we are doing the normal cc where everyone sticks around while the CEO reads the financial results from a paper.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    jhm
    Actually, I would prefer the ER and CC to be in the middle of the trading day. This gives the market an opportunity to react while volume is high. I really dislike how shorts try to highjack the price in AH trading just as ER is released.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    jhm
  • Feb 9, 2015
    AudubonB
    Uh...class?

    CLASS?

    CLASS!!!!!!

    Thank you.

    Someone makes some completely unsupported remark and half of this forum starts tearing each others' hair out over an eventuality that exists solely within this fourm.

    Settle down now and wait for Wednesday.

    And certain of you - you know who you are - can stay on after hours to clean the erasers.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    sundaymorning
    Ah that makes a lot more sense. I was under the impression that Elon already requested a 30 minute delay, and some are calling for his head; my mistake. Although Elon did not do this, but had he requested a 30 minute delay, I personally would not throw a fuss over it. If he sticks his landing Wednesday, we all reap the benefit of his exposure. It's not like he's requesting a 30 minute delay to spend time with his family nor is the man deliberately screwing us, he is genuinely concern about his ventures, and without that characteristic, Tesla would not have made it this far. He was willing to bleed his entire reserve to buy a dying company an extra month of operation, and that's why we're here, in comparison, our 30 minutes is meaningless in the scheme of what he's brought to the table. Although I prefer for him to be on time, if you're reading this Elon, take the 30 minutes if necessary.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    chickensevil
    I thought it was industry standard to trade before or after hours. Who reports i n the middle of the trading day? I wouldn't want that since you want people to have time to digest the information. I would prefer it happen after the closing after hours tradinging just so NOTHING can be traded... But that is a pipe dream.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    30seconds
    Elon has been abundantly clear that there are two companies at which he is the CEO. Like a previous poster said - the conflict isn't because he is sipping a margarita somewhere - it's because he may need to manage a crucial step is changing the economics of the entire industry of space exploration.

    The call is after market hours. Needless to say this wouldn't be the first (or last) quarterly call from a public company that would be delayed and I do not see it as a major issue. Of course they could do it without him, but I would rather have him on the call as his discussions and answers to questions have been very illuminating with respect to the many issues at the comapny.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    chickensevil
    Can we just get off this needless speculation when the launch isn't even presently scheduled for Wed nor has there even been a hint they would shift one schedule or the other? I think we all get it that it would suck for him to have to make a call of one company or the other... For now, we don't need to worry about that.

    And yes I realize I contributed to this conversation and for that I am sorry... Because you guys have really been going after each other over something that isn't even on the radar of happening right now. We have higher odds of a successful barge landing at this point than having Elon be called away.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    sundaymorning
    Your post reminds me of a time when Elon made everyone listen in on a 5AM CC, he sounded half awake and despite the tiny bits of underlying good news, the market sold off. Yep, that's the way the market goes, unpredictable.. but it was good times, immediately following the CC members on this forum got to work, crunching numbers and analyzing the Gospel, people blogged it out, despite it being early. I miss those days, we had some very dedicated members eager to make a "Teslanaire" out of themselves and they worked diligently, countering FUD with equal intensity and endless paragraphs wherever they encounter the opposition, especially on Seeking Alpha; their intensity would soon payoff...

    Fast forward to the present and breeds of investors have changed quite a bit. I believe the success that some old timers have had with Tesla has rendered them lazy, soft or careless; of course I don't blame them because they likely would rather enjoy their profits as appose to scour through endless threads on this forum. With success comes apathy, and a certain level of carelessness creeps in. I know this was somewhat true in my case, I use to go on seeking Alpha to repudiate people like John Peterson, nowadays, I just chill and let others do the dirty work. This may be counter productive as upcoming shorts bring intensity to the game, they have more to lose and more to gain from FUD, so they fight for their life, no matter how ridiculous their argument, they always put up a fight. This is contrary to the present attitude on this forum, some even suggest we don't click on seeking alpha because of bait, but I think it's important that whatever side of the trade you are on, to bring a fight and educate the mass. Not all investors are logical and confident in their evaluation like we are. Many newbies rely on seeking alpha and get chased off by fear. I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on this CC, but I wouldn't be completely out of a QR play either, just because the Tesla train is unpredictable.. which ever side you are on, I am suggesting you hedge in case it runs away or dips for an opportune purchase.
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    maoing
    Well said Sunday! TSLA is not in mania phase now. Personally I bet the farm for Q1/Q2/Q3 ERs, but I have to hedge for this ER. Good luck for everyone!

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  • Feb 9, 2015
    sundaymorning
    Just for the record Maoing, I'm 90% in, with 10% cash on hand. Usually I'm 100% in. But of course my risk tolerance is ultra high and I only play long term so my risk visibility is ultra low. Having the opportunity to visit spaceX and spoken with George Blankemship in person somewhat impacted my trading strategy as it made me a bit bolder. Despite the pullback, 2014 was a great year, hopefully 2015 will be even better. Looking forward to reaping many More years of profits and sharing debates with you and others on this forum. May the longs thrive...
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  • Feb 9, 2015
    Benz
    OK, let's get back on topic now.

    I think that the guidence for delivery numbers in 2015 will be 50,000 Tesla Model S deliveries and 10,000 Tesla Model X deliveries.

    Anybody who "dares" to have a different opinion?
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    schonelucht
    Yes, I don't think they will change their guidance significantly from the last shareholder letter with deliveries at 50 000 (excluding CPO) in 2015.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    Benz
    Yes, they mentioned the "50% increase" in the last shareholder letter.

    Though I must say that I do expect them to revise their guidence for the annual total of the delivery numbers in 2015 in the following quarterly shareholder letters in 2015. In August (ER Q2 2015) they might already mention an annual total Tesla Model S delivery number in 2015 of 55,000 (10% more than their original guidence of 50,000). That scenario would be great, I think.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    Auzie
    sundaymorning, I do not expect Seeking Alpha to have any influence on the TSLA movements. SA are just opinion pieces and I doubt that they have the power to sway investors. SA followers seem to fall into predetermined camps and trying to convince the other camp to a different point of view seems very ineffective and futile.

    Notes from analysts seem to have some needle moving power. Some analysts are better than others. Also factual reports, regardless of the reporting body, can move the stock.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    Benz
  • Feb 10, 2015
    uselesslogin
  • Feb 10, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    Analysts at Stifel said in a note on Tuesday that they expect TM to announce global delivery of 31,750 vehicles in 2014, falling short of its goal to deliver 33,000.
    The analysts kept their buy rating on the stock, however, and a price target of $400.
    Their reasoning for their positive rating and PT is "given the lack of competition, misplaced concerns related to consumer demand, and (Tesla's) continued progress scaling core production."
    Tesla is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, with consensus calling for earnings of 30 cents a share on sales of $1.21 billion in the quarter, according to FactSet.
    Link to original article on MarketWatch
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    aznt1217
    That's a pretty good note. I already see the headlines something to the affect:

    "Tesla continues to lose money: why you should stay away"
    "Tesla demand lower than guided"
    "Tesla the Amazon of the auto industry"

    :biggrin:

    What I'm really curious about is what they accrued for those seats that they need to retrofit and how much R&D is stepping up.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    doctoxics
    Why not at least15,000 Model X deliveries in 2015 since Tesla now offers early 2016 delivery if the order is placed today. Tesla must complete the existing orders (up to 24,000) before delivering new orders in early 2016.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    timf
    Early 2016 is a vague statement. I've heard it quoted more accurately by people within Tesla as "well into 2016". There's no assurance from Tesla that all or even a significant portion of the first 24,000 will receive delivery in 2015. When I reserved it indicated "Summer 2015" delivery, which is clearly not the case now unless you are getting a Signature. I think 10,000 is a realistic if not slightly optimistic goal, and 15,000 is a bit too far out there even if everything goes perfectly with the testing and roll-out.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    Zaxxon
    Exactly--you need to Tesla Time-adjust that statement. 'Early 2016' translates to 'some slim but non-zero chance of sometime in 2016.' :) After all, my 2/2014 reservation is due to be delivered any day now (according to what I was told on reserving).
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    Benz
    Rocket launch is a NO GO.

    Next attempt will be tomorrow.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    aznt1217
    Lol so what happens now
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    Zzzz...
    Elon now choosing Tesla or SpaceX or multitask(one way or another).
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    erha
    Maybe only JB and Deepak at the meeting.... Is that even a possibility?
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    FredTMC
    I think Elon will be 100% on the EC. Elon isn't essential for the launch at all.

    Furthermore, I don't think they'll move or postpone the call.

    Once the 1 hour EC is over, I'm sure he'll catch up on the 'details' of how the launch and landing went

    I'm sure he'll get a few updates of progress during the call but he won't be terribly distracted during the call. He can wait for details after the call.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    ecarfan
    No, Elon will be on the call. He doesn't run the launch sequence, he's just an observer. I'm sure he'll have the video feed running during the call but he can still answer questions with his usual style.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    maoing
    Don't worry Elon's absence from CC. It's likely the launch will be pushed again, who knows :)
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    JPP

    ...you got an 'in' with the weathermaker at higher altitudes?...:)
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    sundaymorning
    Tesla isn't Tesla without its usual drama and short attacks. This is getting good!
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    hirox
    For the wednesday there is a 95% chance of good weather and the upper winds are expected to be lower.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    bonnie
    Time for call changed to 4:30 PST.

    Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 5.39.20 PM.png
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    sundaymorning
    Thanks Bonnie. No offense taken here, and good luck with tomorrow's launch. This is a firm reminder for those who may take offense to this delay, that he's the boss and Tesla "will not change."
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    chickensevil
    Guess that answers that. They shifted the call add some people suspected they would. The good news in this the market will be forced to mull over any news for a good 8 hours before pre market opens up. Going to be interesting to see what the market thinks of the earnings since we will see the impact of the letter in the post market and the impact of the call in the pre market
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    Muskol
    I prefer the delay over having him distracted on the call. If that first stage sticks the landing, he will be super pumped up for the call...
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    Beckler
    I wonder, are you talking about the launch or the report :D
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    bonnie
    Agreed. I saw the email and thought 'makes sense'. I have no issue with the delayed time. Elon is passionate about all his businesses, no reason he can't do both. If it inconveniences people, it's only because they wanted to hear it live. (But because it's at EOD, most people will have ended their work day anyway, with the exception of those of us out here in the West.) It will have absolutely no impact on decisions made.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    I don't have any issues either. This actually makes it more convenient for me, as I'll be home for the conference call, rather than commuting home and cursing that I'm missing the audio feed, LOL.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    chickensevil
    Last ER I just made my passengers listen to the ER with me :D
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    TSLAopt

    This is is right when I put the kids to bed, not cool for me. Guess I'll have to listen to a recording later...anyone know when the recording is first available?
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    eepic
    In an ideal scenario, SpaceX livestreams the touchdown and sticks the landing. Followed by a pumped Elon talking Tesla with his bravado at 100% (he sounded relatively bummed/edgy the last two earnings calls). It would be quite the headline "Elon Musk succeeds in historic rocket landing, then announces Tesla <speculation here>."

    In fact we/he loves epic achievements and making a great story to tell so all the more reason he'll aim for this. Would definitely achieve extra attention to what he has to say about Tesla if its appended to every article about a human spaceflight milestone.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    hershey101
    So back on topic, I'm currently seeing $0.33 EPS estimate, and whisper numbers of $0.39. If whisper numbers are to be believed, Thursday morning will be a good day
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    Causalien
    If anything, sticking the landing means Elon will be focusing more on TSLA for the short term. Which directly leads to stock going up.
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    Timmy
    Tesla says, "Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company's website."
    �
  • Feb 10, 2015
    ecarfan
    As much as I want the Falcon first stage to successfully land on the barge tomorrow, I would caution you not to get your hopes too high. Tomorrows orbital trajectory is reportedly making the stage recovery harder than it was in the prior launch. As to unexpected good news for Tesla tomorrow on the earnings call, maybe, but likely not.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Benz
    What other items could be discussed on the Conference Call?
    - Battery cells supply agreement with Samsung SDI?
    - China market situation?
    - Some more information regarding satellites?
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    I would like to add:
    - Progressive SuperCharger rollout across Europe (they are currently doing a damn good job expanding their network in Germany!).
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    eepic
    Yea my hopes on it being successful are tempered, the Lagrange point orbit is going to push the first stage harder and leave less margin for the boostback and landing. But there's that chance they may do it, and the excitement may ease Elon's hand and reveal some more of his cards.

    Btw, a piece of the puzzle we're still missing is details on stationary storage. I think Elon mentioned late last year there would be an announcement of some sort in "a few months". We're due for some mention on that front given the 1/3 allocation of the gigafactory for this (albeit, the early GF ramp would be for cars). Obviously very possible we won't hear about it for a long time given the track record on "a few months", but it's possible.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    FredTMC
    great point. I'd love to hear more about progress with this NEW emerging line of business

    I remember JB's conference presentation about stationary storage. "We are all not thinking big enough"...

    Once this becomes a top line and bottom line contributor with its own growth guidance, could reset Tesla/TSLA expectations
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    chickensevil
    That's a spacex thing... not relevant to Tesla and won't be discussed on the call.

    I would add that I hope they make the service announcement they have been promising regarding the "invisible love" comment at Detroit.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    eepic
    I think the email that came out just after 4pm was incorrect, as it seems to indicate in past tense the release of the shareholder's letter. Most likely it was queued up to be released at a certain time via the TM investor website along with various embargoed market wire services, so the earnings call will probably still be 7:30pm ET.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    30seconds
    Same email is up on the ir site, but no shareholder letter.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    Started to think it was just me... been clicking through their site for the past few minutes like crazy...
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Curt Renz
    Tesla's message distribution system must have been operating on autopilot with no humans at the controls. Elon has warned us about the dangers of relying on artificial intelligence. :wink:
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    eepic
    Marketwired just confirmed a correction that the letter will be 5pm ET, conference call 7:30pm ET.

    Five minute break from the F5 key everyone! Here's some music to go with the waiting SpaceX FM
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Gerasimental
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Hogfighter
    Okay...I'm a patient man, but come on!!
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    sub
    Counting on this thread for details, only have phone right now plus I'm lazy. I'm not seeing big movement yet.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Citizen-T
    Not posted yet.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    StapleGun
    I've been F5'ing the Press Releases page, is that the right page to expect it on?
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Citizen-T
  • Feb 11, 2015
    JPP
    Call pushed back to 7:30 pm Eastern/4:30 pm Pacific (?? so Elon can participate in Falcon/Discovr launch).
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    Tuxedo
    Weird delay. Getting a press release online on time shouldn't be that difficult.
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    wts13
  • Feb 11, 2015
    aznt1217
    It's not posted yet
    �
  • Feb 11, 2015
    eepic
    It's usually 5-15 minutes after the scheduled time, standard fare here..
    �
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