Feb 20, 2014
chickensevil Well unless demand ends up higher than 50k a year, because by end of 2014 they will only be running at 50k a year (1000 a week) run rate.�
Feb 20, 2014
Zythryn I designed a P85 with everything except extended leather, HPWC and the extra lighting package for $106,800.
However, I had not considered foreign exchange advantages no signatures. How many EU sigs were there? Those would also help bring that average up.
I was just a bit taken aback as our Sig wasn't that much, our 60kWh was $30k less than that, and I just didn't think that many Performance plus packages were being sold.�
Feb 20, 2014
772 That price must be after the $7500 tax credit... it would be ~$114,500 without that, and that's the price that Tesla gets paid.
I left out the performance seats and wheel upgrades in addition to the options you mentioned.�
Feb 20, 2014
Krugerrand No. They wouldn't be making factory upgrades this year to top out at the 2014 year end run rate, knowing full well that Model X has to go into full production in 2015. Whatever upgrades they make will be able to handle S and X demand for 2015+.�
Feb 22, 2014
chickensevil But that is on the assumption that demand will be 1000 a week for the S. Which, really is a good guess to overshoot on demand... But it is still possible that it is higher. He (Elon) did say during the CC that they could go higher than 1000 a week it would just depend on if the demand is there to need them to go higher.
all I was suggesting is, there is a chance (pretty small one) that demand for the S won't be satisfied at 50k a year. Also I wouldn't expect the X run rate to match the S run rate until maybe 2016. So who knows how long that one will be production constrained.�
Feb 22, 2014
Benz Interesting to hear that they will not be able to satisfy demand in China.
Deepak Ahuja: "Lots of demand in China". Elon Musk: "Based on current trends, we will be unable to satisfy demand in China".
The demand will be there in 2014 (more than 50,000 new reservations for the Tesla Model S). But even with the new production line they will not be able to satisfy demand. And therefore they will need to invest more in production capacity in 2015 as well (and also in the years ahead).�
Feb 23, 2014
bonaire How many reservations exist for China right now?
Ms. Wu, in late January of 2014, said that "several hundreds" of reservations have been received since August. Why wouldn't she say thousands?
Tesla to Sell Model S Sedan in China From $121,000 - Bloomberg
What I heard Musk say on the Q/A call:
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla Motors Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha
Can you translate the "Elon speak" to reality as stated below?
Deepak Ahuja - Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer
At the same time, we see very good demand in China and a lot of the emerging right-hand drive markets.
Elon R. Musk - Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yes, absolutely. Yes, I mean -- I think, based on current trends it seems unlikely that we'll be able to satisfy demand in China this year. So there will be unmet -- likely to be, I think, unmet demand in China.�
Feb 23, 2014
chickensevil Lets put it this way, they said they were planning to have 50% of the new production increase this year be allocated to China. So assuming 35k (the low end) against the 22k last year, that would make 13k additional this year. Half of that is 7,500 cars already slated for China this year. If demand is unable to be met in China this year, then clearly it is going to be higher than 7,500. To put that into perspective, they are planning 7400 run rate for Q1...�
Feb 23, 2014
DrDave They must really be trying to push out cars for Q1, plant has run 2 Saturdays in Feb and 2 planned in March (plus I hear some areas are running today too).�
Feb 23, 2014
Lessmog Not really having any concrete insights, let me just correct your math a little bit. Half of 13k is 6k5, right? The rest of your conjecture stands for you ...although interesting!
�
Feb 23, 2014
Krugerrand You missed the part where they are making a line that will handle S and X together, so there's not a chance the line will top out at a 50k rate.�
Feb 23, 2014
Benz It will be interesting to find out at what weekly production rate the Tesla factory in Freemont (including the new operational production line) will have reached its top weekly production capacity.�
Feb 23, 2014
chickensevil Bah! Your right, good catch! I still think that is a decent start for china at 6.5k
50k is just assuming S builds. I was also assuming they would build up to the same number (maybe a little more) on the X. But it isn't a static line, parts of the production is interchangeable and some won't be. Elon said in the CC that it isn't that they "added a second line" they have added to specific parts or doubled in certain areas, to up the production.�
Feb 23, 2014
Krugerrand Yes, I know 50k was assuming S builds. And Tesla is to be at a 1k/week run rate at the end of 2014 and that 1k/wk will be 99.99% Model S's (50k/yr) since X doesn't go into full production until Q2 2015. So again, there's no way the new line for S and X tops out at 1k/wk run rate because Tesla is building the line for S AND X; they already are getting a better idea of S worldwide demand and they feel X will be even more popular. So, even if Model S becomes a 50k/yr demand, there should not be longer wait times because of a line that can't handle the demand. That's what Benz was originally asking about.�
Feb 24, 2014
Benz If I would have to make a guess, then I would say that Tesla will be able to produce about 1,600 S+X EV's per week as from January 2015. Meaning that the production capacity will be more than what they actually (currently) are expected to be producing by then. Elon Musk spoke about the "real high volume next generation production line" during the Conference Call of the Q3 2013 Earnings Report in November 2013.�
Feb 24, 2014
GravityPull Perhaps this was already discussed but can someone tell me if this is a true statement?
"The company (tesla) had revenue of $615.00 million for the (4th) quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $657.15 million.�
Feb 24, 2014
772 Yes 615m if you're using GAAP, 761m if you're using non-GAAP. I don't know which method that 657m estimate was using.�
Feb 24, 2014
ggr Estimates are usually non-GAAP. You would pretty much have to be an insider to know any details of some of the things that go into the GAAP numbers. But I don't actually know what that number is in this case, just saying.�
Feb 24, 2014
kenliles the estimate was non-gaap;
Seeking Alpha issues a correction on that original news admitting they had transposed the numbers
if thats where you got it. Others picked up on it and made the same error- they beat analyst revenue�
Feb 24, 2014
GravityPull Thanks. So what was the correct gaap estimate?�
Feb 24, 2014
kenliles Actual
non-GAAP $761M
GAAP $677M
I don't know what the GAAP estimate(s) were as most estimates are made non-GAAP�
Feb 24, 2014
chickensevil The best I could find would be a GAAP EPS of (.02). I would assume you could multiply that up by the number of shares minus add back in the expected expenses and get the GAAP estimated revenue. Unless you are a short on the stock all most people have been concerning themselves with is non-GAAP and then cash flow. That should really paint the important pictures for the immediate time being. The question of if their GAAP numbers will bite them in the ass or not will not actually come until 2016 when the first of the buy backs become eligible.�
Feb 24, 2014
FANGO I bet Tesla will not spend a single cent on the buy back program. In fact it will produce a profit from CPO cars.�
Mar 2, 2014
chickensevil That's my thought as well, the only downside here is that they have a financial incentive to make sure that the resale price stays up... which means I wouldn't expect the price of the Model S (new) to come down at all any time soon.�
Mar 4, 2014
gym7rjm As an investor I don't want to see the S price come down ever
I also believe that the Model E will have a huge range of offerings: from bare-bones starting at $35k going all the way up to an "M3 Destroyer" in the $60-70k range. If you can't shell out for the S, the E will have you covered.
When the gross margin for the S gets to the point they want it... 30-40%? They could then reinvest in luxury upgrades and technology as battery prices fall rather than reducing the price. This would keep the S at the top for a very long time and keep investors very happy.�
Mar 5, 2014
chickensevil Adding new features and selling the car for the same price as before is the same thing as a price drop. Which does in fact hurt your resale value. Why would I want your used 2013 when a used 2014 has all these extra features (as an example). Right now the price of the car has only gone up. Any new features they have added are an additional fee into the car, and many old features have had the prices adjusted to be more expensive. At some point they are going to have to adjust the price back down and roll some of those features into the cars base price. That is your price drop.
the biggest price drop is going to be when the cost of batteries come down to a level that they stop selling the S60, the 85 becomes the new "base model" and they start selling a 110(or similar). I fully expect this to happen since it is not unreasonable to expect 400+ miles of real highway driving range on a large luxury sedan. These cars have 20 gallon tanks in them and at 20 mpg that's 400 miles...�
Mar 7, 2014
Robert.Boston Moderator's Note: I split off the discussion about Business Case for Better Range�
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