Thứ Bảy, 3 tháng 12, 2016

June 20th Speculation part 4

  • Jun 20, 2013
    DRM
  • Jun 20, 2013
    markb1
    There's no live stream. Elon tweeted that video would be made available around 9:30 tonight.
  • Jun 20, 2013
    ShortSlaver
    I imagine that's 9:30 Pacific. I will have to watch in the morning sadly. I hope it goes off without a hitch.
  • Jun 20, 2013
    Jonathan Hewitt
    I'm tempted to stay up and watch it at 0030 eastern time but that would make for a bad day at work tomorrow :D So I will only watch it when it's posted if I am unable to sleep ;) I'll get up early in the morning and watch it before I go to work.
  • Jun 20, 2013
    bhuwan
    ha! lower cost - yeah right! :)
  • Jun 20, 2013
    Curt Renz
    Taxi companies are businesses and must consider the full cost over the lifetime of owning a car. Obviously, the fuel is much cheaper with a Tesla. So is maintenance with a simple electric motor and braking mainly done by taking one's foot off the accelerator and sending energy back to the battery. Those key components should be quite long lasting. The same for the body which is composed of non-rusting aluminum rather than steel. Resale value should be quite high. Even if the battery is degraded, future replacements for the used car owner are likely to be more powerful yet cheaper.
  • Jun 20, 2013
    ShortSlaver
    Very often Taxi fare's are set by a commission. Fuels costs are a part of that but I highly doubt we'll see cheaper ride. Taxi companies will simply see increased margins leading to more EV buys.

    However, even with battery swap, etc the costs for the Model S, a set of batteries and swap infrastructure probably isn't worth it in terms of savings VS gasoline.

    Maybe in 5 years. But it's another piece of nice potential.

    However, services like Uber are interesting propositions for this.
  • Jun 20, 2013
    Curt Renz
    Of course in a city like New York with $1 million taxi medallions, the price of a car is almost inconsequential.
  • Jun 20, 2013
    ShortSlaver
    I do believe that if you're building an EV for just utility, like a cab, with swapping they can in fact be far cheaper overall today even.

    The battery is a fixed cost and will lost as long or longer than an engine in the conditions a taxi exposes a vehicle to. The cost of the EV itself without luxury is really cheap overall and the maintenance requirements are much, much smaller.

    A big cost to cab companies is garage time and maintenance. Gasoline too. They've made a move to hybrids but that only solves the fuel issue and only by a bit. An EV would solve a lot of issues if done as a utility car. Especially if they took advantage of charging at lower demand times, like after midnight here.

    I don't think Tesla has plans to move into this type of market though. At least not anytime soon.
  • Jun 20, 2013
    NigelM
  • Jun 20, 2013
    ShortSlaver
    I'm going to speculate that there's a big public event and Elon comes out in a cheesy jacket and they show how they can swap a couple batteries in a Model S in the same time it takes to fill a similar ICE with a tank of gas. It might have actual value but perhaps not. At the very least it garners pretty awesome media pub and brings more attention to the Tesla brand.
  • Jun 20, 2013
    nursebee
  • Jun 20, 2013
    kilimats
    where the **** is the official video....
  • Jun 21, 2013
    brianman
    Apparently video editing and publishing IS harder than both rocket science and battery swapping. Perhaps Elon needs to start another company for this task. ;)
  • Jun 21, 2013
    30seconds
    That was pretty awesome. Especially for town car / taxi service. Not a bad idea for certain high traffic corridors, but I think most of the value for owners is the concept that you just bought an "upgradable" car. Like in 90 seconds!


    Buy the 60 now if you are not sure and you can always move up to the 85 if you want.


    or buy the 85 and later if you want a bigger pack, you don't have to worry about having bought the wrong model.


    also puts into perspective about elon's earlier quotes about buying the battery that best suits your normal driving and not worrying about range b/c they have it figured out.


    between the patents and the execution Tesla is way, way, way far in front of the competition. Just think about what tomorrow morning is going to be like for the head of EV at BMW or the Panamera franchise head at Porsche.
  • Jun 21, 2013
    brianman
    So they didn't show the 3rd split, but about in line with what I think we all expected here.
  • Jun 21, 2013
    FredTMC
    +1!!!! Crickets...

    UPDATE: Elon twitted 20min ago that video is still being edited.
  • Jun 21, 2013
    deonb
    It's happening...

    http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap


    The video is not up yet, but you can see the site layout. Sadly there is virtually zero information on it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    It's up.
  • Jun 21, 2013
    TD1
    does anyone know if there is a physical difference between the 60kw and 85kw batterypack (more cells inside the 85kw) I start to believe that Tesla may just limited it with software to have a more efficient Batterswap infrastructure and have the option to charge the user for an anytime optional upgrade.
    Does Tesla tell the weights of the different Models somewhere?
    Also that would allow to have 60kw batteries that last extremly long 8-10 years.
    80% capacity of a 85kw pack is still good the be a fully functional 60kw pack.
  • Jun 21, 2013
    kcveins
    I found out some details; if anyone was there with more info, please feel free to chirp in.

    1. Swapping will be started in the CA corridor by the end of the year and then out to the East Coast after that
    2. Charge will be based on 15 gallons of gas at the prevailing price and will be charged to your credit card (on file)
    3. You will need to pick up your battery on the return trip OR have it shipped back to you (for a price) OR pay the difference in the battery life (cost yet to be determined)
  • Jun 21, 2013
    TD1
    last two points are pretty bad actually.
    When Elon said "the equivalent of a Full gastank" I assumed he meant it based on the official 89MPGe of the Model S which would lead to about 3Gallons per swap given the 260Miles rated range.
    Really dont link the 3. point seems to me like huge pain in the ***
    I cant Imagine that "shipped back to you" would be economical feasable in any way.

    I think it would be much better if every Battery would have a rating system for the state of the battery and every Model S VIN a rating of how good the battery should be.
    So if someone drives a Tesla for 3years and has 30k Miles on it, that would lead to a certain battery degradation and the current "virtual" battery in a 85kw pack would have e.g. 235miles rated range left (10% degradation)
    Now it would be much simpler to just limit the swapped pack via software to an equal range.

    In a swapping station with around 50 Batteries there would be always some battery that comes very close to the "virtual battery" of a random Model S that pulls up for a new swap.

    That way Tesla could also allow the Users to upgrade the virtual battery very conveniently and this system would leave little room for exploits.

    Also Tesla could offer a "long range charter" where a 60kw Model S can upgrade (via software) temporary to a 85kw or 120kw battery for a few days for an extra fee. (although that business model would reduce the demand for big battery packs)
  • Jun 21, 2013
    JRP3
    I don't think it's that bad to occasionally pay for a fast swap, faster than gassing up a car, at the same rate as a gas car. Since 99% of the time, or more, you'll be "fueling" at a much lower rate are you really going to have a problem paying for the swap convenience? Don't want to pay? Supercharge for free.
  • Jun 21, 2013
    DonPedro
    I think this announcement should be viewed from the perspective of Tesla is aiming to eventually be the dominant car company in the industry. When (if) they get there, it will be partially because they bet on all four of the range-related technologies:

    1. Superchargers
    2. Battery swapping
    3. Increased battery range
    4. Public charging infrastructure compatibility
    [5. Insert new idea]

    The point is that it doesn't matter to Tesla in the long run which one of those (or combination thereof) succeeds as the long term viable solution. Some of those may succeed short term, but not long term. Others may mature very slowly. It is probable that Tesla will be writing off a few hundred million on one or the other. But that's just peanuts, compared to the vision for the company.

    I think this is what Elon means when he says "optionality" (only he sees it from the customer point of view - the customers will assess the offerings and determine what will live and what dies).
  • Jun 21, 2013
    toastypasta
    You're only swapping on long trips. No reason to ever swap otherwise. So they believe you'll be making a return trip.. Which isn't necessarily true. Considering 1 is free and the other costs money, people will mostly choose free i think
  • Jun 21, 2013
    maekuz
    You nailed it! Even the part with the jacket...

    /scnr
  • Jun 21, 2013
    deonb
    I expected it to be equivalent of the number on the Model S calculator. i.e. 20mpg.

    It sort'a is (it's 20mpg 'ideal range' of a 'range change').

    If you compare it with 'EPA range' on a 'standard charge' it's 16mpg.

    If they actually give you a range charged battery it's not bad.

    And the picture at:
    http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap

    looks like it might indicate range charged, but I wouldn't bet any money on it - this page is meant to drive new people to the site who won't know what a range charge entails.
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