Thứ Sáu, 2 tháng 12, 2016

2014 Q4 Earnings Report and Conference Call part 6

  • Feb 11, 2015
    aznt1217
  • Feb 11, 2015
    FANGO
    Ugh Trip Chowdry what a stupid question
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Krugerrand
    Yeah, it's like he knows nothing about Tesla to ask that question.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Causalien
    What of the buyer gets a discount and it also trickle up 3 levels?
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    AudubonB
    Trip's Q: Bordered on the rude. And on the wrong side of the border, too. At least there are GF questions now.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    mibaro2
    EM hasn't forgotten about the Roadster upgrade. Good stuff , even if Tesla doesn't make money on it.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    AudubonB
    Andrea's wasting everyone's time with her battery pack Qs. But on oil - let's see what EM has to say....

    "..it's not changing any of my projections".
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Causalien
    My take...

    1.9B cash. Cash is king.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    FANGO
    I really don't think this would be a good idea, nor would it necessarily add much demand. We already have owners selling cars, but they're doing it because they want to, not because they're being compensated. This would just turn owners into sleazy car dealers. Not beneficial to anything. And it would cost Tesla money. That doesn't help either.

    Also note that Tesla doesn't give commissions to salespeople per se. And certainly not a thousand dollars.

    Not only do I not think this is it, I truly hope this is not it.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    mibaro2
    Good session.
    This year is going to be a GREAT year !!
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    doggusfluffy
    Well, I'm excited for the home battery announcement in a month or two. I really want to see the plans for that side of the business.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Bobbyducati
    looking forward to 6.2, or whatever version we're supposedly getting next month. Really want blind spot monitors available, but thats not "fleet wide."
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    32no
    Didn't he say an announcement within the next 6 months?
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    spentan
    this is probably a stupid question, but would Tesla be able to sell me a home battery storage system, that could store 50 or so kWh, charge it overnight during offpeak and then use it as a power source during onpeak?
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Fanatic
    It must be the alternator upgrade! Will make engines more effective!?
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    doggusfluffy
    My guess is it's tricky to negotiate with the utilities for grid storage while you're also killing their grid with residential solar competition.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    ryanjm
  • Feb 11, 2015
    flankspeed8
    In order to ramp up deliveries to 55k a year, it seems like logistics is going to be a problem will it not? I have closely followed the deliveries thread in the MS forum and despite what was said in the letter regarding vacations and bad weather causing the delay of the P85D's, there was no mention about the lack of ground transportation getting the car to the end customer. Many said that there cars sat in Fremont waiting for transportation. This seemed especially acute for Canadian deliveries. How difficult is this going to be to ramp up? There was no mention of this in the CC.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    SteveG3
    Think you guys are taking that a little too literally. I suspect it's, we won't show the car and it's options until we absolutely have to in order to allow first reservation holders to configure.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    aznt1217
    He didn't say options he said FEATURES
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Paul Carter
    Just posted this on the tally: Say lop off 4,143:
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    SteveG3
    you say sandbagged, I say, they learned lesson of calling it as they see it with 35K this year, and silly flood of articles when taken to 33K and now delivering 31K and change.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I was responding to the comments wondering how people would configure their car if they don't know their choices.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    AlMc
    Exactly. Give guidance for production/delivery that you 'know' you can meet, and probably beat. Excellent CC by EM/JB, et. al.. Now, they need to deliver on the guidance. If they do all will be well with TM and TSLA. EM indicated previously, and hopefully they have all learned from the Q3 retooling and Q4 D issues, that ramping up will be their biggest challenge to realizing their mission statement.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    EarlyAdopter
    Because it could be a standard feature, say for instance the second row seats swivel, that they don't reveal until the first cars land in customer's hands.

    Doesn't impact the options someone locks in months before.

    Seeing as Tesla has four times as many reservations for the Model X than they can fulfill this year, it makes sense to hold off on revealing even more things that could spur additional demand until as long as possible.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    sundaymorning
    How about paying the dealers' salesman for every customer he/she refers to Tesla that translate into a reservation. Double the sleeze!!
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    jhm
    "Turn two...the rest is food."

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think this is the idea. Plus, for people with solar, they could charge during the day and use the power later. They basically have this with DemandLogic already.

    What I think would be really cool is the ability to do high speed DC charging to your car. So it charges for hours, then you plug in your car and bam its done in minutes. It would be like a mini Supercharger station in your own home, apartment complex or other destination.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Bobbyducati
    holy #$@% that would be amazing!
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    DJ Frustration
    Has anyone done a recap of the 4Q Conference Call for this who missed it?
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    breser
  • Feb 11, 2015
    jkirkebo
    Hopefully they will make it off-grid compatible too. There are many off-gridders wanting to get rid of lead acid batteries.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Theshadows
    This type of technology already exists. It's called "peak shaving", no reason it couldn't be implemented with Tesla's storage units, probably even customized by the customer.

    If net metering laws are ever overturned every solar owner in the state will be flocking for these devices.

    I would like to see a straight solar to car charge controller, dc.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    maoing
    +1. Q4 ER is very close to many folks expected. Disappointing Q4 financial results (actually miss bigger than most people think especially EPS) with conservative 2015 guidance (especially Q1 guidance). It sets expectation low for the beginning and bodes well for a good growth trajectory especially for stock price.

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  • Feb 11, 2015
    chickensevil
    Sorry, didn't mean that to sound negative. Yes, it makes sense to guide for deliveries you know you can make instead of being too optimistic. Elon acknowledged this is one of his big weaknesses and he is working on it. I think that is why they are holding their guns on 55k for this year.

    - - - Updated - - -

    That's a fair number I think. He did say slightly under 20k. I wouldn't think it would be a huge number of people holding dual reservations. In an absolute worst case I would put that at 1k but that feel like way too high a number. So I think starting now at your 19k number and adding to that as new reservations get reported would be a solid way forward to keeping tabs on it. I am sure we will have another final wave of drop outs when the final product is revealed and the piper comes around wanting paid. But I think most who wanted to cancel will have already done so now that there shouldn't be anymore major delays and the option for an AWD MS is out there.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    ecarfan
    Exactly. I think Elon meant that the X will come STANDARD with some very cool features that no one outside of Tesla has seen.

    Of course the Tesla Motors X order web page will soon be up so people can configure their car how they want it. But the unannounced cool new features won't be revealed on the order page until the first car is delivered.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Causalien
    So far, haven't seen any negative publications. Anyone found any? Did the 10k ModelS and 20k modelX reservation scared reporters away? (I thought Tesla is fully sold out for 2015)
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    yobigd20
    Yea...those numbers were way lower than I expected. If that statement is in fact true then that means they don't plan on building more than 20k model X's this year.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    MravecSK
    Hi :) Slovakia is missing there, there was about 10 Model S sold in 2014.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    snellenr
    Wall Street Journal article (paywalled) last night: was running with this headline:

    "Tesla�s Loss Widens as Deliveries Fall Short"

    Tesla's Loss Widens as Deliveries Fall Short - WSJ
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    mibaro2
    WSJ reporting an-opening-for-bmw-as-tesla-fails
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    pGo
    It is interesting to note that Elon went from Adventurous to not so for Model 3 in a few weeks time frame. I also felt that there will be a derivative (higher end with adventurous features) of Model 3 later. What do people make of this?
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    yobigd20
    I always thought the Model 3 would be basic and would not have as standard or even as an option some of the features of the model S.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    mibaro2
    Yes, but Elon was always saying how it will not be like any other car that you have seen. So it would be basic, but perhaps be a strange shape and not look like any other car.
    Now it won't be that different. Perhaps Tesla decided to get a more affordable electric car out there faster rather than trying to be really adventuresome.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Robert.Boston
    I'll credit GM's announcement of the Bolt for the change in strategy. Tesla needs to deliver a Model 3 contemporaneous with the Bolt, a Model 3 that will make the Bolt look ridiculous and establish Tesla's dominance in the EV space. If the Bolt hits the streets a year ahead of the Model 3, Tesla will be in catch-up mode, rather than leading.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    I disagree with that.

    For Model S, we knew the average wait time is 3 months and they produce 1k cars per week... so that's roughly 12k cars - or so we thought.
    For Model X we were doing some voodoo and came up with 24k cars.

    Both of these assumptions were based on calculations, partial information, pure logic and some user posts on reservations. So I think the actual data we know now only reaffirms the excellent work that people did on these threads. No one expected these figures to be dead on, if anything I am shocked on how accurate TMC was.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    mibaro2
    Good point. I'll agree with that reasoning.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    CHGolferJim
    For Model 3, think the idea is the first version out will be basic so they can deliver on the promised price point (would be an enormous long-term pr hit to miss that). Also, to achieve maximize efficiencies for production ramp up, and hit the largest segment of demand first. Must be in line with their expectations of GF output, and their calculus of Bolt likelihood.

    My favorite parts were the "bs" comment, and the "would love to figure out how to be less stupid about this in the future". The contrast in the execs' barely contained excitement, and their slightly casual language, to my former Fortune 50 employer's excruciatingly scripted and stolid delivery amazes me.

    in the course of a few weeks, the company vision has been revolutionized with the clear and simple targets of "millions of cars within 10 years" and "market value of current Apple" (=25x). WOW!
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    aznt1217
    I get the logic, but I think it's ridiculous that the media is so PRO GM. The Bolt was a bloody concept car that used TESLA'S concepts (battery pack on the floor, larger touch screen). We have something tangible and a starting point and people continue to ignore this.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Krugerrand
    Seems like the smart thing to do. This helps reduce the likelihood of engineering delays (trying to get a new engineering feature *perfect*) and also doesn't scare the 'oh-oh, it has falcon wing doors - those'll never work' crowd.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Runarbt
    +1

    I have had dreams the past year of tesla reaching the mcap of apple, when they mature and dominate the car world. :)

    Hearing Elon thinking the same was a WOW moment. :-D

    I was planning to exit my stock position soon, which I have been holding since $32.. now not so much.
    When my wildest dreams for the stock might become a reality in 10years or so.. I am sticking with it. up or down, whichever way the stock goes until we see where Elon leads us. ;-)

    Me who thought the run from 32$->292$ was a once in a life time experience! If we can do $200 - $4000-5000 in the next 10 years, that will be an experience I definitively do _not_ want to miss. :-D If I have to, I might even consider selling my Model S, just to keep my stocks. ;-)
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Krugerrand
    It could very well be that the possibility of the Bolt has solidified the direction Tesla is going in with the Model 3, but I'm not convinced the Bolt coming out first puts Tesla behind. That is not until the Bolt can actually go 200 miles on a single charge, have performance better than 0-60 in a half day, handles well with a low center of gravity, fast charges, grabs the eye in a good way, has a huge touch pad screen that controls everything in the car, has OTA updates FOR FREE on a regular basis that updates the car, within the stated price range etc., etc.... Only after GM achieves all that and then some - like FULL auto pilot - and puts it out before Tesla would I ever consider Tesla in catch up mode. I'd say the chances of that happening are less than zero.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    uselesslogin
    Can anyone explain to me how they plan to spend $1.5 billion in capital expenditures this year while losing money on operations? It sounds like they will spend the cash all the way down but then start making up for it starting Q1 2015. That is a very aggressive plan and I suppose I should expect no less but it scares me. I hope they sandbagged that guidance big time though because by my models they need 60,000 deliveries just to break even on operations. Even that means they will exit the year with $400 million in cash. If the X is in full swing in Q1 2015 they will start to actually have cash flow to meet capital expenditures so I see where the plan is but it looks scary to me.

    After this report 2015 looks like a very tough year to me. However, if they execute they aren't lying about strong positive cash flow in 2016.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    CHGolferJim

    Opportunities for regular investors to "ride the tail of a comet" don't come along that often. Congrats on getting in so early! If you are relatively young with x years of stable income ahead, I would encourage you to roll the dice on TSLA and stay with it with a meaningful stake. I'm considering a 50% increase in my long position today (don't understand options and LEAPS well enough to play in those).

    Edit: purchased ~10:16am @ $198.18 (cost basis now <$230 in non-taxable account.....#latebloomer).
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Gerasimental
    Your model isn't accounting for revenue from home storage sales. I'm very curious about the scope and scale of this. Might it be worth a new thread to speculate on / try to predict the impact of stationary storage sales?
    For example:
    -Unit cost
    -Volume
    -Margins
    -Sales model
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    uselesslogin
    Good point. The thing is I feel like they have a great product and I would prefer them to take a slower approach because why mess with a sure thing? Elon's prorities are different. I'm most encouraged by Model 3 being fall of 2017 and less adventurous. That makes me feel better. But if they miss this years guidance they will have to raise some amount of money. By all measures though it does look like conservative guidance.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Krugerrand
    This. Total unknown with HUGE potential and coming online way sooner than I expected.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Cosmacelf
    As far as cash goes, they pretty much stated that they will start using a financing facility that will give them cash for leased cars. So they will start borrowing money. Also they said cash from operations should start in Q4. But yes, the first 2 or 3 questions on the conference call were essentially about Tesla's alarming cash deterioration. And then in answer to one of those Qs, Elon says something like our capital expenses will be enormous.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Causalien
    Was it capex that created the 13 cents deficit? Or SG&A?
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    FluxCap
  • Feb 12, 2015
    Robert.Boston
  • Feb 12, 2015
    flankspeed8
    But AAPL at $700 billion in market cap is generating about $40 billion in profits. I am all for Tesla (waiting to get in about $180) but if we walk away from all they hype and look at the numbers do we really believe that Tesla is going to be worth this in 10 years? Lots of unknown competition down the pike.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    FluxCap
    Competition is so misunderstood for this company -- that is the SMALLEST risk for out-year projections which is why no Wall Street analyst even mentions it. The risks are purely production, efficiency, supply and delivery chain for years to come. Competition HELPS Tesla's valuation if and when it comes.

    There is no competitor investing even 1/1000th of what Tesla is in battery production capacity currently, so there is no credible long-range EV competition for the next 4-5 years minimum. Simple fact. They can keep making golf carts with 30 miles of real range all they want, or lose money on unprofitable expensive models with a bit more range using LG Chem or Samsung batteries, but that's not real competition. Show me your Gigafactory before I'll admit competition.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    eepic
    From my perspective as both a Model 3 Sig buyer and an investor, I am hugely in favor of them going with the less adventurous version to begin with.

    As someone eager to put down a Signature Model 3 deposit, realistically here is what I care about:
    - a decent looking car, decent performance
    - under $40k USD base cost for 200 miles, so that I can have it fully optioned out at $60-70k USD
    - standard materials (steel please!) for easy and cheap repairs, specialized repair requirements would give pause to much more price sensitive consumers in this target market
    - 2018 delivery

    There would be no shortage of demand for a very compelling product like this so there's no need to further complicate it. Any major feature innovations, like falcon wing doors, would be nice but not necessary and introduce very real risk of delays to solve engineering and mass production challenges. I would be extremely happy with a smaller sibling of the Model S, executed to perfection and with little delay.

    From an investor standpoint, the holy grail for the stock is for Model 3 design and production be ready and executed in perfect lockstep with a rapid Gigfactory ramp up. In DaveT terms, it de-risks any question of Tesla 2.0 and puts the company on track towards 2.5 or 3.0. It also allows them to get a good gauge on (what I think will be incredible) demand sooner and start working on the next gigafactory(s). This all goes with the mission of accelerating the advent of sustainable transport.

    The goal of Model 3 is to mass produce at lower cost while maintaining similar compelling features to the S/X line, so keep it simple!
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    flankspeed8
    I absolutely agree with you when you talk about the near-term (next 2-3 years). But to sit there and say that 5-10 years down the road Mercedes, BMW and VW are going to sit still letting Tesla eat their lunch? No way. Eventually the sleeping giants will be awoken. Don't underestimate the power of having thousands of dealers (as much as I hate this model) waiting to sell a car at launch that could happen in a couple of years. Think of how much logistics would have to happen to see Tesla push millions of cars. I absolutely am pro-Tesla but just don't get these comparisons to Apple and a 700 billion market cap.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    FluxCap
    How long will it take each of them to build a Gigafactory competitor? To design a model that works as seamlessly as a Tesla with realtime software updates? To build a supercharger network? They are 4 years behind minimum. I predict Audi or BMW will commit to a Gigafactory build by 2018, finish it by 2020, and begin shipping Tesla competition by 2022 at the earliest. And that's being generous.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Vger
    This may be true, but I think it is also the result of the accumulation of lessons from the launch of the first two models. Elon is learning that he can move heaven and earth, but not quite as fast as HE would like. I think having people like Chris Porritt on board has helped that learning process.

    And let us remember that Elon's idea of "basic" is still better than the 2018 Audi A4 and BMW 3, etc.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    flankspeed8

    Your assuming there will be the demand for that many EV's. I am not so presumptuous. Nissan seems to be moving enough EV's without a GF. LG Chem is able to provide GM with whatever they need. Several years ago the President had a goal of 1 million EV's by end of 2015. No where near that. Where will the demand come from for millions of EV's in the near term?

    edit: I agree that these current generation cars are not in the league of any current Tesla product. But they are not sitting still.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    My general sense is that demand is driven by quality of overall product, not just a single attribute (like being an EV, or having XYZ multimedia options, etc.). Build a great product that meets peoples' needs and desires, and it will sell. Build a shoddy product, and it won't sell, no matter what special attribute it might have.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Vger
    You are neglecting the factor of ten in volume that Tesla is shooting for. Nissan and LG Chem have enough batteries for 10's of thousands of cars, not 100's of thousands. That is why the gigafactory is necessary.

    Tesla has shown the demand is a function of make a car that actually works as a primary/only vehicle. None else has come close to that. If the next gen Leaf or the Bolt can actually get there (which I doubt) they will be hugely production-constrained and disappoint many would-be buyers.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    FluxCap
    Wait, so you presume that other automakers will make lots of EV competition, but also that there is not sufficient demand for long-range EV's? I'm not sure I understand that, but I would bet you my portfolio that if Tesla opened Model 3 orders TODAY with a $1k deposit, they would have 200,000 orders in a week.

    The demand for different products is different. Lumping a Leaf in with a Tesla is like lumping a $20 flip phone in with an iPhone. Not the same category. Every other EV made or conceived to date has been a "compromise" car that forces owners to sacrifice or change their lifestyle to sip power, drive slow, without much comfort, and with anxiety. That is why it's not legitimate competition. It's also just not fun to drive. People pay a premium for fun, convenience, safety, performance, ease of use, etc.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Vger
    Agreed, more or less. EVERY millennial young adult the age of my sons wants one. That generation gets it that they are facing a lifetime of misery in a damaged climate.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    flankspeed8
    And from everything I am reading, millennials are driving less and buying less cars. They can't afford them. Also, if they were concerned about environment they will use mass transit (where available), bike or Uber where they need to go. Perhaps renting a car for long weekends or trips. If you are betting the farm on millennials buying more cars in the future than they are now, I am not sure that is a bet that I would take. Again, LOVE TESLA and LOVE THE PRODUCT. I just am not convinced by all these rosy predications because they have not materialized in the past.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    eepic
    For what it's worth,

    YoY Revenue Growth:
    2011 74.9%
    2012 102.3%
    2013 387.2%
    2014 58.8%

    We're set for about 50% CAGR from here to 2020 by filling up Fremont capacity, till 2023 with a second and third factory. Throw in some additional gigafactories for stationary storage and it's possible, if optimistic.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Jonathan Hewitt
    Yes, but the cars they DO buy will be Teslas once Model III comes out. If anything what you said means companies like GM are in a lot more trouble than anyone really thinks.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    hobbes
    I think that is the point that makes or breaks Tesla 3.0 or whatever you call it - Elon is expecting electric cars to grow to two-digit percent market share in the next 20 years (don�t remember the exact numbers), and so do I. If that is so, the number of EVs to sell is so huge, even if all major car companies have a giga factory and the millenials only buy half as many cars as we do today, Tesla would still be limited only by its internal ability to scale, not demand (assuming that they continue to make as compelling cars as the S which we probably agree on :) ).
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    ecarfan
    Another brain dead factually-challenges article from the WSJ. It claims the i8 is a serious challenge to the Model S when the cars are in no way comparable and the i8 has a tiny electric range. It claims the i3 is a Model 3 competitor right now and EV "fanatics" object to it because some i3s come with an ICE, ignoring the fact that the problem with the i3 for those who want a pure EV is the limited range and slow charging so that it's not a useful long distance vehicle.

    And the article says the latest Tesla ER shows that Tesla "fails". Wow. The WSJ lives in an alternate universe from the one I inhabit.

    Such an obviously anti-Tesla and biased article from the WSJ is no surprise, but still appalling.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    austinEV
    I totally agree about keeping the model 3 simple, but I think it will be made of aluminum. Don't worry, the industry will move toward aluminum and it won't represent a risk when the time comes.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    DriverOne
    Absolute relief here about the non-adventurous Model 3. Last thing we need is a crazy or wacky electric car! What's wanted is a great car that happens to be electric.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    MSEV
    I hope you are right, for many reasons...

    - - - Updated - - -

    And I hope you are right also, for many reasons...
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    30seconds
    Maybe the Bolt kicked Elon into a higher gear? Didn't even know that was possible.

    Pure speculation but with gigafactory progress and increased cash flow from S and X (compared to older assumptions) Elon may be trying to accelerate Model3 release
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    FredTMC
    Yep. Possible. Really depends on battery ramp from GF since model 3 will be using larger form factor cells
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Drax7
    Introducing the model d , coupled with a new assembly line , all in a few months threw them off.
    Production was off, orders and deliveries were rearranged and the quarter printed
    awful relative to expectations.
    But fundamentally nothing has changed. The production issue is behind them
    And so are the The Chinese scalpers . Hong Kong doing well , means China will follow.

    The massive capital investment has a great ROI and is essential to increasing production and expanding the business.
    No surprise given continued investment in production, service centers, super chargers, and stores in 4 continents.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    techmaven
    Yeah, pretty much.

    Factor in the 1400 cars and the extra expenses in shipping and overtime and they would have been pretty much on track.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    FANGO

    Audi will spend the next 6 years putting out press releases about the electric models they're never going to release. Then they'll spend the next 10 years putting out press releases about factories they're never going to build. Then they'll target shipping their Tesla-killer for 2030. Then they'll never ship it.

    The point of my post is that Audi needs to put up or shut up. They are perhaps the least likely company to act on EVs given their past behavior. They're all talk.




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  • Feb 12, 2015
    30seconds
    Well they do have the e-Golf
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    FANGO
    Was referring to Audi specifically. Besides I'm pretty sure the e-Golf is a reaction to losing top sales spot in Norway to the Model S (formerly occupied by the ICE Golf). VW has seemed one of the more hostile manufacturers to EVs to me. And Audi's EV press releases over the course of the last 7 years or so with nothing to show for them are pretty laughable.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Saghost
    I'm not sure I agree with you, but you do understand that if this happens Tesla will have achieved their goals, right? They want to put EVs in every garage, and aren't terribly concerned about who built them.

    The battery factory isn't Tesla's only big competitive edge, either. The Supercharger network is a huge enabler that will require a lot of time and money to duplicate (unless the competition buys in to Tesla's network, which would probably be the best outcome for everyone, especially EV drivers.)

    Even with both of those factors out of the picture, Tesla's demonstrated history of bringing new and useful features to existing cars by OTA firmware updates is a draw for customers. Until others in the industry match Tesla's service model, DCFC network, *and* battery production capacity, Tesla has a clear competitive edge if they deliver otherwise identical products at the same price.
    Walter
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    uselesslogin
    OK, after digesting a few days the number one thing that bothers me about this report is that operating expenses increased 15% when they guided for 10% Now they are guiding for 12-15% growth still. Why? Or, more importantly, what happened to guidance from Q3? The second thing is I realize some losses aren't a huge deal because frankly they are spending way more on capex anyway. That is why the cash burn shouldn't be too concerning. On an operating basis Elon is right they have been profitable for 2 years now and not BS profitable. They can stop capex spending if they were in danger of running out of cash but if the Model X is in full swing by Q1 they will have more than enough cash. If their operations were burning the cash that would be a whole different thing.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    aznt1217
    The operating expenses increase was a one time deal due to the late quarter push and derivative of the D delays. They stated this on the call but it was probably overlooked. People were working massive overtime (production all the way to delivery/ownership specialists). In addition, they also had to pay for extra shipping costs.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    Lump
    They admitted to being surprised by the demand for the "D", they were too optimistic with delivery dates & when they ran into problems with seats, EPA rating confusion due to unfinished firmware some orders were canceled & other owners wanted the car for X-Mas & for the 2014 tax credit, the "D" some have called a distraction, I call it a temporary disruption that they should have prepared for better. Delivering a "new car" 6 weeks after introduction was way too optimistic causing them to scramble once again.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    sandpiper
    Cumulative charts are really deceptive. If you look at the slope of the chart, it looks like demand is pretty much constant for the last 18-24 months.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    Robert.Boston
    But because cars are a durable good, there is information in this chart: in 2010, there were basically no EVs or PHEVs on the road, while now there are over a quarter million households with an EV. When people know someone with an EV, they are more likely to consider an EV when they are next in the market.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    CHGolferJim
    And untapped demand is massive with such limited product offerings in both categories re features and price points.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    FANGO
    And if you look at the slope of the PHEV portion, you will see dropping hybrid sales and increasing EV sales. So demand for EVs is rising quite a lot as it has been for years.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    deckofficer
    I think Ford has already made the switch to aluminum for the most popular truck in the US, the F150.
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  • Feb 14, 2015
    JST
    Not just the most popular truck--the most popular vehicle, period, by a fairly substantial margin.

    And while the F-150 only uses aluminum for the body (and not the frame), I agree--it heralds a shift that will see aluminum becoming very mainstream over the next few years. I don't see any barrier to using it in the Model 3.

    The real question is when/whether Tesla is going to move to more exotic materials, like carbon fiber.
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  • Feb 14, 2015
    Cosmacelf
    Also, with regard to Model 3 demand, I seem to remember Elon mentioning offhand that for Model 3, they may have to finally resort to advertising. My point is that there are some huge demand generators that Tesla hasn't used to date.
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  • Feb 14, 2015
    CHGolferJim
    Roughly how much heavier would the MS be if made with steel, and how much range loss?
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  • Feb 14, 2015
    Saghost
    I don't think anyone has a real answer outside of Tesla, but I might be able to give a general impression.

    For the 2002 generation A8, Audi went to Aluminum construction - and VW developed the Phaeton shortly thereafter on basically the same platform but with a steel body. For some reason I'm only seeing specs for the 2004 A8L online, with a three inch longer wheelbase than the Phaeton, which should give a slight advantage to the Phaeton, although their overall lengths are basically the same. Lots of minor variations in equipment, but it is probably the closest comparison you're going to find.

    With the same 4.2L V8 and AWD powertrain, Edmunds says the 2004 A8L weighs 4399 lbs, and the 2004 Phaeton weighs 5194 lbs. So with cars that had somewhat lower crash requirements but were a little bit larger, the aluminum structure appears to have saved ~800 lbs.

    I don't have an easy answer on range, but if I remember right, GM gave a number when they were talking about how the weight was a relatively small impact - I think it was 200 pounds extra would reduce the AER by one mile (of 35, presumably - so a ~5% increase in weight they expected to have a ~3% effect on electric range.)

    800 pounds on a 4600 pound Model S would be a 17% increase in weight, so if my recollection of GM's statement on their modelling is applicable to the Model S and the loss stays reasonably linear, you'd expect to see a ~9-10% decrease in EPA rated range - maybe 25 miles.
    Walter
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  • Feb 14, 2015
    CHGolferJim
    Appreciate your effort there. EVTripPlanner shows no difference in rated miles or energy usage between Burlington NC and Plymouth NC with all conditions being the same at 200 vs. 1000 lbs.
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  • Feb 14, 2015
    Saghost
    I have no idea how EVTripPlanner built their range model. I suspect they may be using the weight only in the calculation of potential energy costs (extra power to climb hills, extra regen to descend,) rather than including a change in the flat ground costs due to rolling resistance.

    The reason I referenced the GM quote is I haven't seen a comprehensive study of the impact of additional weight on range in EVs, so it wouldn't be surprised if EVTripPlanner didn't have the data available to model it correctly.
    Walter
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  • Feb 14, 2015
    CHGolferJim
    Yes, agreed there must be an effect not captured by EVTP. Curious that it includes a box for weight, but there was no difference, maybe it's that the route I chose is relatively flat.
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  • Feb 15, 2015
    mdevp
    I'm confused about the Q4 report. Did they say how many P85D's were delivered in Q4, and if so was the profit margin the same as S85s? Or were the all the P85Ds shipped in Jan. so its for Q1 '15.
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  • Feb 15, 2015
    Robert.Boston
    No, Tesla didn't reveal what % of Q4 deliveries were P85Ds, nor what the margin on those cars is. There were a significant number of 'Ds delivered in December, based on reports on this forum.
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  • Feb 16, 2015
    Lerxt
    Sorry if I missed it in the discussion, but would someone care to clarify the 1400 unable to be delivered in Q4 issue for me. These cars are presumably a part of the 9500 to be delivered in Q1, so it means they are only producing 8100 in Q1?
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  • Feb 16, 2015
    Robert.Boston
    More precisely, only 8,100 cars produced in Q1 will be delivered in Q1. It appears based on EU sales numbers that Tesla emptied the pipeline at the end of Q4, so there might be significant Q1 production (above the 8,100) that goes back into filling the international supply pipeline.
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  • Feb 16, 2015
    schonelucht
    No, production will be 10k. They need to fill up their pipeline to Europe and Asia again. From the latest shareholder letter :

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  • Feb 16, 2015
    Cosmacelf
    And remember, they somehow have to get to 55,000 vehicles sold by year end, although some of that will be from Model X. Now that Model X sales numbers have been baked into an official Tesla target, I feel much better about maybe actually receiving mine this year.
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  • Feb 17, 2015
    uselesslogin
    I realized another thing that makes the change in cash balance not as bad as it seems. Since they failed to deliver 1,400 cars they are considered finished goods inventory, right? So that is $140 million in cash burn that will only be $50 million next quarter and much more neutral the quarter after that. Further, they can get a warehouse line of credit off of inventory, right? I know a lot of the inventory is loaner cars. So if they target having about $1 billion in cash by the end of the year and spend $1.5 billion for CapEx this will be possible despite neutral cash flow. Then Q1 2016 with the X in full swing we should see strong positive cash flow for a while.

    Anyway it has taken me some time but I see how they have a very reasonable plan with some buffer built in so if things go bad they should have enough resources to weather the storm without going back to the market to raise capital. Now if the stock price is high again I would bet they will raise capital as it is almost silly not to considering the staggering amounts of cash they will be spending and the excellent terms they would be able to get.

    Of course who knows when the market will start to see this. We might be waiting for the Q1 2016 report before the stock moves much in any direction.
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  • Feb 17, 2015
    scaesare
    There's a video somewhere (It may be the "How it's Made- Dream Cars: Tesla Model S" I have on my DVR) with a shot of the aluminum chassis and a statement of it weighing just over 400 lbs. If that's accurate, I'd guess body panels might add another couple of hundred lbs?

    Not sure what the same design rendered in steel would be. Aluminum is roughly 1/3rd the density of steel, but you may need more of it for a given strength. I've seen it said that he new F-150's are shaving ~700lbs off the weight of the truck by just using aluminum body panels...
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  • Feb 17, 2015
    breser
    The F-150 has had an aluminum hood since the late 90s. So not all the body panels have changed. So yes it's a pretty significant weight saving on body panels.
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  • Feb 17, 2015
    mdevp
    Really good reasoning here, thanks Walter. What was the price difference btw the A8L and phaeton, and what do you think the price difference would be if the MS was entirely steel?
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  • Feb 17, 2015
    Saghost
    It looks like the difference in price between the two in 2004 was about $5k - but keep in mind, it is different brands as well as potentially different equipment:

    2004 Audi A8L vs. BMW 745i, Jaguar XJ8, M-B S430, VW Phaeton - Comparison Tests

    http://media.caranddriver.com/files/2004-audi-a8l-vs-bmw-745i-jaguar-xj8-m-b-s430-vw-phaeton70000-luxury-sedans-2.pdf

    I'm not going to speculate on the second question, because I really don't have enough information to do so intelligently.
    Walter
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  • Jul 29, 2015
    austinEV
    That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. I bet you a million dollars that will never happen.
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  • Jul 29, 2015
    brianman
    Hehe.
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