Feb 11, 2015
pGo I just don't expect any surprise from them. No word on where production stands right now. That says they are not producing linearly. A few people here were going for 1200/week rate. Hopefully, they'll correct the numbers now.�
Feb 11, 2015
Citizen-T How many analysts are modeling 30% margins for Model S by year end? I suspect that another couple percentage points per car is going to make a bunch bigger difference than 55k versus 65k cars in total. I wouldn't necessarily expect analysts to revise downward based on what I've seen so far.
A slip of 1400 cars is no big deal since they were produced on time. I mean, I'd rather they were delivered in 2014, but presumably they were delivered, what a week later? I mean, that hurts for anyone playing weekly options on the conference call, but if you even have one-quarter time frame then this is a non-event. Would have been a much bigger deal if they weren't built at all.
I know that's the big shiny number. The one that is easy to compare expectations versus results, but the line we are drawing for when the music stopped is arbitrary and meaningless (again, unless you are playing the ER itself).�
Feb 11, 2015
RationalOptimist Impressive production. GM disappointing. The 26% only achieved by large ZEV sales. 2015 guidance a little disappointing. Implies only 5k Model X sales in 2015.
Overall strategy looks wise though. The pell-mell growth hasn't worked perfectly this year, with China, Germany slow. So makes sense to cool it just a little, get the details right, and let the existing business build at a more natural pace. Meanwhile go pell-mell at the GigaFactory trying to get that ready. when all's said and done, S and X are the sideshow, brand-building precursor to the real action.�
Feb 11, 2015
aznt1217 I really hope the question of lack of demand is not brought up. I think that's why they finally put a little tid bit in there about reservations. In addition, because Elon's words were so twisted at NAIAS I think that's why they put a note about GAAP vs. Non-GAAP�
Feb 11, 2015
FredTMC Elon should talk about "seat gate". This really was an understandable problem. Bad seat airbags from vendor. 4.9 safety rating instead of 5.0�
Feb 11, 2015
Joel Where do you see "not taking orders?"�
Feb 11, 2015
aznt1217 I think the GM's modeled were quite spot on with the only questions being ZEV and FX impact (nobody can forecast this to a T) I'm glad they met their production targets because that tells me it was the Holiday logistical jams that companies experience that messed them up. My takeaways from this call is that execution is on point in 2015 but there were a few hiccups in 2014 to prepare for 2015.�
Feb 11, 2015
v12 to 12v The delivery miss may be disappointing but it was expected due to the problems the West Coast ports were having.
Containers were not available and ships were not available. It is likely a major reason they decided to expand their options by shipping via rail when they did. It likely took some time to get the new logistics sorted out. A week or two delay in deliveries considering the complications sounds good to me. The port problems are not over yet though.�
Feb 11, 2015
Citizen-T Yeah, that was a serious question though. Does anyone know what the current projections are for Model S margins from analysts? I can't try to track it down right now.�
Feb 11, 2015
dmunjal That difference is more than 1400 that were delayed.
And shouldn't the delayed 1400 cars be added to the 55000 total for 2015?�
Feb 11, 2015
Joel I believe Tesla is highlighting that they did build 35,000. And "1,400" were delivered in Q1 2015 due to delays, but had those delays not occurred, Tesla would have built 35K and delivered 33K in 2014.�
Feb 11, 2015
eepic Note: Elon is physically located at SpaceX HQ currently (seen in the live webcast). Most likely he got JB and Deepak to join him there and they'll head to a conference room shortly, after the second falcon stage 2 burn in about 20 minutes.�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil You do realize that the other headquarters is right next door, right? He has like 30 minutes to walk next door. Not that it matters as the call can happen anywhere. But I am just saying...�
Feb 11, 2015
Benz Total Model S deliveries in 2015: about 47,500
That's just over 150% of the 2014 total Model S deliveries of 31,655.
H1 2015: 22,000 Model S
H2 2015: 25,500 Model S + 7,500 Model X
Q1 2015: 9,500 (Model S only)
Q2 2015: 12,500 (Model S only)
Q3 2015: 12,500 Model S + 2,500 Model X
Q4 2015: 13,000 Model S + 5,000 Model X
Total 2015: 55,000 (= 47,500 Model S + 7,500 Model X)
Would that make sense?�
Feb 11, 2015
eepic You're absolutely correct.. for some reason I thought Tesla factory in Fremont. Anyway the only relevance I had in mind was sometimes Elon/JB/Deepak mute their phone to discuss something online in the middle of the call, so he was potentially in a different location than JB/Deepak it would be more difficult.�
Feb 11, 2015
hobbes First time I see them mentioning what Lathrop is for.�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil Haha! No worries, I figured you were thinking of Fremont or some such. And yes, I am sure they will still all be in the same room. If not, you could always have skype up on one screen and the webcast/cc on the other, this way you could mute the webcast mic if you needed.
- - - Updated - - -
You might have missed it, since it wasn't really spelled out in print anywhere else. It was asked about during the Annual Shareholders meeting in June, and I believe it had been brought up a couple other times. But again, I don't think it was ever put in print so it is easy to have missed. The goal being to move some of the things offsite (but close by) so they could have more room at Fremont.�
Feb 11, 2015
apacheguy Anyone ask about the battery swap station? Seems like it's all been built, just waiting on when it'll open.�
Feb 11, 2015
Cosmacelf I don't think so. Isn't Tesla HQ in Palo Alto? SpaceX is in the Los Angeles area, and while there is a Tesla facility right next door, it is not the HQ.�
Feb 11, 2015
CHGolferJim Not in the letter....was referring to earlier discussions about "this summer" and folks wondering whether that meant taking orders, shipping or making sales.�
Feb 11, 2015
RobStark When did Tesla become Fiat Chrysler Automobiles with HQ in Detroit and Turin but London for tax purposes and registering the holding company in Amsterdam ? :tongue:
Tesla HQ is in Palo Alto and Tesla Design is in Hawthorne next to SpaceX.�
Feb 11, 2015
FredTMC Hawthorne Tesla location is the tesla Design Studio. Franz's office...
�
Feb 11, 2015
MikeC Nothing especially exciting in the report but my confidence is up seeing that they continue to be right on track. Model X coming along, GF for 2016, demand is not an issue. Something promising that the market might not realize for a while:
"Growth of sales, general and administrative expenses in Q1 will be more modest as we will be particularly focused on increasing operational efficiency. In total, our operating expense growth should slow significantly. We expect 2015 operating expenses to grow 45% to 50% annually, as compared to doubling in 2014."�
Feb 11, 2015
Thumper We should hear something about X debut and configurator soon if they are going to confirm orders, source quantities and deliver in 6 months.�
Feb 11, 2015
FredTMC Yep. Great observations. Wonder if they'll be on time for the call. Starts NOW
ok. Here we go...�
Feb 11, 2015
efxjim link?�
Feb 11, 2015
flankspeed8 Events & Presentations | Tesla Motors�
Feb 11, 2015
hockeythug Again with the CapEx questions.�
Feb 11, 2015
mibaro2 nicely putting the China issue to rest.�
Feb 11, 2015
MikeC "Pretty sure people in China want the best car in the world."
Love it.�
Feb 11, 2015
Gerasimental Defended Tom Zhu, but angry that sales teams told potential customers that charging is hard in China.
Wonder if that's related to the recent e-mail rumours.�
Feb 11, 2015
sundaymorning Elons right, there's no misconception in Hong Kong, and Hong Kong is much more crowded than China in terms of people per SF. There's less parking and more high rises per SF in Hong Kong. Must have been an internal issue with incompetent execs.�
Feb 11, 2015
mibaro2 again CAPEX? !!�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil Love the Accounting 101... since so many people want to hate on Tesla's non-GAAP numbers. If that wasn't clear enough to someone then they need to step away from Tesla and finances altogether.
- - - Updated - - -
Boom! TSLA is worth just as much as Apple�
Feb 11, 2015
StapleGun Paraphrasing Musk: My personal opinion is that we will have a similar market cap in 10 years as AAPL currently does ($700 billion).�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati did he just say ******** (BS)?�
Feb 11, 2015
hockeythug Correct. haha.�
Feb 11, 2015
avatar Damn. wow.�
Feb 11, 2015
aznt1217 That's... a very bold statement.�
Feb 11, 2015
hockeythug Taking shots at Apple's spending. Haha�
Feb 11, 2015
FluxCap Or, dividing our market cap by Apple's and multiplying by our current share price, that's $5,500 per TSLA share. I'd take that.�
Feb 11, 2015
StapleGun Looks like Musk brought his bravado today.�
Feb 11, 2015
SuryaDham paraphrasing more:
...with relatively little dilution...�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil Well, the caveat is in 10 years... But 700B in 10 years, what is the standard discount to come up with a today market cap on that projection?�
Feb 11, 2015
aznt1217 Him and his team DID just launch a deep space mission today... you know only 15+ years in the making.�
Feb 11, 2015
flankspeed8
Define little? Infrastructure spending sounds massive. They are going to have to raise plenty of capital especially ahead of M3. He is not sugar coating IMO�
Feb 11, 2015
aznt1217 That's still bananas even factoring in inflation + any returns the S&P may generate discounted back 10 years.�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil 700B - 30B = 670B / 10 = 67B linear market cap growth per year... I would also take that... so next year's PT should be what... 90B Market Cap with 125M shares 720$ a share??? I would totally take that too�
Feb 11, 2015
StapleGun About $2550 per share assuming an 8% discount for 10 years. That wouldn't include any dilution.�
Feb 11, 2015
hockeythug That was a good question.�
Feb 11, 2015
jhm $5500/share in 2025, 39% average annual appreciation.
Damn, if that works out, I can retire early.�
Feb 11, 2015
Causalien What was this about? I was on the phone.�
Feb 11, 2015
Krugerrand And yet he just said they have no intentions of raising capital.�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil In the face of significant capex we will still be significantly cash flow positive in Q4!!! WOOOOO Love that this is still going to happen�
Feb 11, 2015
Twiddler WOOT! Shout out to forum noise!!�
Feb 11, 2015
flankspeed8 He said at this time....and then went on to talk about minor, minimal and moderate all in the context of dilution. I am pro-Tesla all the way but how in the heck are they going to do this without a capital raising event? CNBC had a Tesla bull who acknowledged that 4Q is when they may have to do this. I am just saying...
Also, I seem to be on about a 2 minute delay. I tuned in at about 6:10CST which may have been my problem.�
Feb 11, 2015
wheresmyx? Elon Musk is great marketing person considering he's an engineer by background! The long-term fundamentals are positive. The question is can they execute? Where's my X? Less talk and more execution is the best tonic for the stock price.�
Feb 11, 2015
sundaymorning He intends to raise, not anytime soon, but when he does, it'll cause only a small dilution to customers. This was what I thought I heard.�
Feb 11, 2015
Gerasimental He was emphasising that non-GAAP profits are not '********' profits but real ones.�
Feb 11, 2015
mibaro2 drive train issue . : the units get repaired, not trashed.
Didn't we go over the shim issue last time?�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil If their cash flow positive is going to start happening in spite of capex in Q4 of this year, then no... we shouldn't need much in the way of raising funds. Most of the dilution will be shares given to employees not a capital raising.�
Feb 11, 2015
Krugerrand Tesla has consistently said all along that Model S and X would fund Model 3. Obviously they raised money for Gigafactory, but there's not much else they need to do. New paint line is going to be able to paint 10k cars per week. And whatever else he meant when he said they've already invested a lot into future profits. Elon is way ahead of us. Just now the comment he made about cash flow coming in during 2020 is going to be staggering. They've got BIG plans and they've already figured out how to get there without diluting shareholders.�
Feb 11, 2015
hockeythug More adventurous Model 3.5 after 3 so 3 doesn't get delays.�
Feb 11, 2015
Krugerrand Correct. Context.�
Feb 11, 2015
Papafox Model 3 in second half of 2017�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil The first version of Model 3 will not be very adventurous so they can ensure to meet the timeline in the 2nd half of 2017. The second version (I read that as the equivalent of a Model X on the Gen 3 platform) will be the more adventurous version since they will have more time. This should bode well for demand of the Model 3 since it should look like a rather "plain" car.�
Feb 11, 2015
sundaymorning Sounds like demand is super high. They're guidance for 55k in the face of FX and China slowdown validates this. You can hear the excitement in Elon's giggle.�
Feb 11, 2015
Causalien I hope they are smart enough to make model 3 being able to be retrofitted to 3.5�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati this is getting exciting!�
Feb 11, 2015
Gerasimental Home stationary storage system to start selling in 6 months? Holy crap.�
Feb 11, 2015
hockeythug "next month or two" for unveiling of the home grid storage system.�
Feb 11, 2015
JST I can't hear the forum noise over the sound of my drivetrain hum.
I kid, I kid.�
Feb 11, 2015
Benz That is great progress.�
Feb 11, 2015
Krugerrand And there's the rest of the money we need.�
Feb 11, 2015
mulder1231 Wow, that just gave me goosebumps. What Elon said about stationary battery for in the home probably being launched in the next few months and produced within six months. Especially the nonchalant way he talks about it. This must be news to many people (incl. me).�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil why? Is the Model S retrofittable to become the Model X??? That is the equivalent of what he was talking about here.�
Feb 11, 2015
hockeythug Such a tease.�
Feb 11, 2015
EarlyAdopter Good business to get into to sink excess capacity from the Gigafactory into before Model 3 gets launched.�
Feb 11, 2015
sundaymorning You can hear the admiration in Elon's voice for the second row seat!! It will be the nicest seat you'll ever see... and there's more we haven't seen yet?! wow�
Feb 11, 2015
PokerBroker Everyone better get over this whole idea fast... Retrofitting is not an ideal plan for any OEM... They want to sell NEW cars�
Feb 11, 2015
ryanjm I didn't get a chance to hear the call. Is anyone posting a summary thread? I'm very curious about this Model 3/Model 3.5 stuff you guys are posting about...�
Feb 11, 2015
Causalien Cannibalizing sales? I understood 3.5 as the more adventurous version of Model 3. It'll need to be marketed as Model 4.�
Feb 11, 2015
Mitthrawnuruodo I just peed my pants (model X tease).�
Feb 11, 2015
MikeC "Not going to show Model X until it's delivered" - did he say that?�
Feb 11, 2015
tommyIT Sorry for the stupid question, but why is this so important? What are the avdantages of stationary storage?�
Feb 11, 2015
Gerasimental [Live Update and Discussion Thread] Tesla Motors Q4 2014 Earnings : teslamotors
live updates being posted here�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati seriously, Im not a huge X fan, but im getting really excited right now.�
Feb 11, 2015
Yuri_G Did Elon just say they aren't showing the final version of the X until they start deliveries?�
Feb 11, 2015
Nevek Yes, but its hard to see how you would place an order then.�
Feb 11, 2015
JST The discussion of the Model 3 is interesting. Sounds like the debate that he referred to at the Detroit show about design direction has been settled.
And not showing the X until it gets delivered? Wow.�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati solar power storage, another source of income.�
Feb 11, 2015
Krugerrand The world just changed AND Tesla just got a fistful of money.�
Feb 11, 2015
wheresmyx? Yes, he did just say that. Not sure what the logic is here. Maybe scrambling to just to deliver product in Aug rather than risk further production credibility loss.�
Feb 11, 2015
MartinAustin "[In order to keep new features secret] we're not going to show it [the Model X] until it's delivered."
Is that really what he said?
What about the configurator... how do you choose colours and options without knowing what those secret features are?
He followed up that gem moments later by saying "we don't deliver a car until it's paid for." Put those two together and... it's an unusual buying scenario.�
Feb 11, 2015
EarlyAdopter No, just that there are some extra neat features in the Model X that they haven't revealed yet and won't until the first cars get delivered. Easter Eggs, if you will.�
Feb 11, 2015
MikeC You just gotta have faith in Elon and Tesla. There will be blank boxes to check for options and you will find out what you get when the car is delivered.�
Feb 11, 2015
gjunky I am sure there is a performance version coming after the initial release of the Model 3. Perhaps a roadster..�
Feb 11, 2015
anticitizen13.7 How is that even possible? Don't reservation holders deserve the chance to see the car before finalization? What about choosing options and colors?�
Feb 11, 2015
EarlyAdopter I heard that as features that they're not going to show, not the car itself.�
Feb 11, 2015
MikeC The response was after a question about an X reveal event, though.
- - - Updated - - -
"30-50k Model X next year"�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil Really sounds like the 55k is a sandbagged number since they really don't know how quickly they will be able to ramp the Model X.�
Feb 11, 2015
pmadflyer I really hope the range is massive for the model X. I figure it has to be bigger than 85 kWh for towing.�
Feb 11, 2015
EarlyAdopter That would just be silly. They're going to reveal the X before orders open up, just not reveal some of the new features.
For example, speculating here, reveal the X in March with standard side mirrors but deliver the first customer car in August with cameras.�
Feb 11, 2015
EldestOyster Those who insist on seeing a Model X before buying will be allowed to buy theirs after the initial deliveries�
Feb 11, 2015
mibaro2 still won't need to advertise to achieve 55k next year.�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil Have a secret weapon they will deploy later this year for demand.�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati secret weapon?????�
Feb 11, 2015
AudubonB "secret weapon":
Yes. At 27past the hour, "....secret weapon on the demand side...that we may deploy this year.........weapon against the dealers"
Now, that's interesting......�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati another firmware next month? hell yes�
Feb 11, 2015
mulder1231 Against the dealerships, he said. Love it!�
Feb 11, 2015
AudubonB 29min past: "....software release next month that will impact the entire fleet...we're really excited about it...."�
Feb 11, 2015
Causalien I am guessing comissions for owner referrals.�
Feb 11, 2015
Papafox We're going to try to do better than the 55 number. Depends upon how the X ramp goes�
Feb 11, 2015
AudubonB Hey - that makes me Croesus!!!!!!�
Feb 11, 2015
FredTMC I am pretty damn sure tesla will offer a commission referral if you are an existing owner. Like directv refer a friend.
Maybe $1000 referral.
Ive sold a lot of cars. I'd like that a lot. Fun.�
Feb 11, 2015
flankspeed8 Did I miss it....has there been a single mention of the GF yet?�
Feb 11, 2015
yobigd20 In case you guys are too busy to notice the Test Mule thread:
�
Feb 11, 2015
bonnie We already do it for free (and quite effectively), so not exactly a great negotiating position.�
Feb 11, 2015
mibaro2 still not trying to make money on trade-ins. :biggrin:�
Feb 11, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Maybe rent-to-buy. "First 15 minutes of rental on a route chosen by a Tesla rep is free!"�
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