Feb 11, 2015
FluxCap Or, dividing our market cap by Apple's and multiplying by our current share price, that's $5,500 per TSLA share. I'd take that.
�
Feb 11, 2015
StapleGun Looks like Musk brought his bravado today.�
Feb 11, 2015
SuryaDham paraphrasing more:
...with relatively little dilution...�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil Well, the caveat is in 10 years... But 700B in 10 years, what is the standard discount to come up with a today market cap on that projection?�
Feb 11, 2015
aznt1217 Him and his team DID just launch a deep space mission today... you know only 15+ years in the making.�
Feb 11, 2015
flankspeed8
Define little? Infrastructure spending sounds massive. They are going to have to raise plenty of capital especially ahead of M3. He is not sugar coating IMO�
Feb 11, 2015
aznt1217 That's still bananas even factoring in inflation + any returns the S&P may generate discounted back 10 years.�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil 700B - 30B = 670B / 10 = 67B linear market cap growth per year... I would also take that... so next year's PT should be what... 90B Market Cap with 125M shares 720$ a share??? I would totally take that too�
Feb 11, 2015
StapleGun About $2550 per share assuming an 8% discount for 10 years. That wouldn't include any dilution.�
Feb 11, 2015
hockeythug That was a good question.�
Feb 11, 2015
jhm $5500/share in 2025, 39% average annual appreciation.
Damn, if that works out, I can retire early.�
Feb 11, 2015
Causalien What was this about? I was on the phone.�
Feb 11, 2015
Krugerrand And yet he just said they have no intentions of raising capital.�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil In the face of significant capex we will still be significantly cash flow positive in Q4!!! WOOOOO Love that this is still going to happen�
Feb 11, 2015
Twiddler WOOT! Shout out to forum noise!!�
Feb 11, 2015
flankspeed8 He said at this time....and then went on to talk about minor, minimal and moderate all in the context of dilution. I am pro-Tesla all the way but how in the heck are they going to do this without a capital raising event? CNBC had a Tesla bull who acknowledged that 4Q is when they may have to do this. I am just saying...
Also, I seem to be on about a 2 minute delay. I tuned in at about 6:10CST which may have been my problem.�
Feb 11, 2015
wheresmyx? Elon Musk is great marketing person considering he's an engineer by background! The long-term fundamentals are positive. The question is can they execute? Where's my X? Less talk and more execution is the best tonic for the stock price.�
Feb 11, 2015
sundaymorning He intends to raise, not anytime soon, but when he does, it'll cause only a small dilution to customers. This was what I thought I heard.�
Feb 11, 2015
Gerasimental He was emphasising that non-GAAP profits are not '********' profits but real ones.�
Feb 11, 2015
mibaro2 drive train issue . : the units get repaired, not trashed.
Didn't we go over the shim issue last time?�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil If their cash flow positive is going to start happening in spite of capex in Q4 of this year, then no... we shouldn't need much in the way of raising funds. Most of the dilution will be shares given to employees not a capital raising.�
Feb 11, 2015
Krugerrand Tesla has consistently said all along that Model S and X would fund Model 3. Obviously they raised money for Gigafactory, but there's not much else they need to do. New paint line is going to be able to paint 10k cars per week. And whatever else he meant when he said they've already invested a lot into future profits. Elon is way ahead of us. Just now the comment he made about cash flow coming in during 2020 is going to be staggering. They've got BIG plans and they've already figured out how to get there without diluting shareholders.�
Feb 11, 2015
hockeythug More adventurous Model 3.5 after 3 so 3 doesn't get delays.�
Feb 11, 2015
Krugerrand Correct. Context.�
Feb 11, 2015
Papafox Model 3 in second half of 2017�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil The first version of Model 3 will not be very adventurous so they can ensure to meet the timeline in the 2nd half of 2017. The second version (I read that as the equivalent of a Model X on the Gen 3 platform) will be the more adventurous version since they will have more time. This should bode well for demand of the Model 3 since it should look like a rather "plain" car.�
Feb 11, 2015
sundaymorning Sounds like demand is super high. They're guidance for 55k in the face of FX and China slowdown validates this. You can hear the excitement in Elon's giggle.�
Feb 11, 2015
Causalien I hope they are smart enough to make model 3 being able to be retrofitted to 3.5�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati this is getting exciting!�
Feb 11, 2015
Gerasimental Home stationary storage system to start selling in 6 months? Holy crap.�
Feb 11, 2015
hockeythug "next month or two" for unveiling of the home grid storage system.�
Feb 11, 2015
JST I can't hear the forum noise over the sound of my drivetrain hum.
I kid, I kid.�
Feb 11, 2015
Benz That is great progress.�
Feb 11, 2015
Krugerrand And there's the rest of the money we need.�
Feb 11, 2015
mulder1231 Wow, that just gave me goosebumps. What Elon said about stationary battery for in the home probably being launched in the next few months and produced within six months. Especially the nonchalant way he talks about it. This must be news to many people (incl. me).�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil why? Is the Model S retrofittable to become the Model X??? That is the equivalent of what he was talking about here.�
Feb 11, 2015
hockeythug Such a tease.�
Feb 11, 2015
EarlyAdopter Good business to get into to sink excess capacity from the Gigafactory into before Model 3 gets launched.�
Feb 11, 2015
sundaymorning You can hear the admiration in Elon's voice for the second row seat!! It will be the nicest seat you'll ever see... and there's more we haven't seen yet?! wow�
Feb 11, 2015
PokerBroker Everyone better get over this whole idea fast... Retrofitting is not an ideal plan for any OEM... They want to sell NEW cars�
Feb 11, 2015
ryanjm I didn't get a chance to hear the call. Is anyone posting a summary thread? I'm very curious about this Model 3/Model 3.5 stuff you guys are posting about...�
Feb 11, 2015
Causalien Cannibalizing sales? I understood 3.5 as the more adventurous version of Model 3. It'll need to be marketed as Model 4.�
Feb 11, 2015
Mitthrawnuruodo I just peed my pants (model X tease).�
Feb 11, 2015
MikeC "Not going to show Model X until it's delivered" - did he say that?�
Feb 11, 2015
tommyIT Sorry for the stupid question, but why is this so important? What are the avdantages of stationary storage?�
Feb 11, 2015
Gerasimental [Live Update and Discussion Thread] Tesla Motors Q4 2014 Earnings : teslamotors
live updates being posted here�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati seriously, Im not a huge X fan, but im getting really excited right now.�
Feb 11, 2015
Yuri_G Did Elon just say they aren't showing the final version of the X until they start deliveries?�
Feb 11, 2015
Nevek Yes, but its hard to see how you would place an order then.�
Feb 11, 2015
JST The discussion of the Model 3 is interesting. Sounds like the debate that he referred to at the Detroit show about design direction has been settled.
And not showing the X until it gets delivered? Wow.�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati solar power storage, another source of income.�
Feb 11, 2015
Krugerrand The world just changed AND Tesla just got a fistful of money.�
Feb 11, 2015
wheresmyx? Yes, he did just say that. Not sure what the logic is here. Maybe scrambling to just to deliver product in Aug rather than risk further production credibility loss.�
Feb 11, 2015
MartinAustin "[In order to keep new features secret] we're not going to show it [the Model X] until it's delivered."
Is that really what he said?
What about the configurator... how do you choose colours and options without knowing what those secret features are?
He followed up that gem moments later by saying "we don't deliver a car until it's paid for." Put those two together and... it's an unusual buying scenario.�
Feb 11, 2015
EarlyAdopter No, just that there are some extra neat features in the Model X that they haven't revealed yet and won't until the first cars get delivered. Easter Eggs, if you will.�
Feb 11, 2015
MikeC You just gotta have faith in Elon and Tesla. There will be blank boxes to check for options and you will find out what you get when the car is delivered.�
Feb 11, 2015
gjunky I am sure there is a performance version coming after the initial release of the Model 3. Perhaps a roadster..�
Feb 11, 2015
anticitizen13.7 How is that even possible? Don't reservation holders deserve the chance to see the car before finalization? What about choosing options and colors?�
Feb 11, 2015
EarlyAdopter I heard that as features that they're not going to show, not the car itself.�
Feb 11, 2015
MikeC The response was after a question about an X reveal event, though.
- - - Updated - - -
"30-50k Model X next year"�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil Really sounds like the 55k is a sandbagged number since they really don't know how quickly they will be able to ramp the Model X.�
Feb 11, 2015
pmadflyer I really hope the range is massive for the model X. I figure it has to be bigger than 85 kWh for towing.�
Feb 11, 2015
EarlyAdopter That would just be silly. They're going to reveal the X before orders open up, just not reveal some of the new features.
For example, speculating here, reveal the X in March with standard side mirrors but deliver the first customer car in August with cameras.�
Feb 11, 2015
EldestOyster Those who insist on seeing a Model X before buying will be allowed to buy theirs after the initial deliveries�
Feb 11, 2015
mibaro2 still won't need to advertise to achieve 55k next year.�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil Have a secret weapon they will deploy later this year for demand.�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati secret weapon?????�
Feb 11, 2015
AudubonB "secret weapon":
Yes. At 27past the hour, "....secret weapon on the demand side...that we may deploy this year.........weapon against the dealers"
Now, that's interesting......�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati another firmware next month? hell yes�
Feb 11, 2015
mulder1231 Against the dealerships, he said. Love it!�
Feb 11, 2015
AudubonB 29min past: "....software release next month that will impact the entire fleet...we're really excited about it...."�
Feb 11, 2015
Causalien I am guessing comissions for owner referrals.�
Feb 11, 2015
Papafox We're going to try to do better than the 55 number. Depends upon how the X ramp goes�
Feb 11, 2015
AudubonB Hey - that makes me Croesus!!!!!!�
Feb 11, 2015
FredTMC I am pretty damn sure tesla will offer a commission referral if you are an existing owner. Like directv refer a friend.
Maybe $1000 referral.
Ive sold a lot of cars. I'd like that a lot. Fun.�
Feb 11, 2015
flankspeed8 Did I miss it....has there been a single mention of the GF yet?�
Feb 11, 2015
yobigd20 In case you guys are too busy to notice the Test Mule thread:
�
Feb 11, 2015
bonnie We already do it for free (and quite effectively), so not exactly a great negotiating position.�
Feb 11, 2015
mibaro2 still not trying to make money on trade-ins. :biggrin:�
Feb 11, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Maybe rent-to-buy. "First 15 minutes of rental on a route chosen by a Tesla rep is free!"�
Feb 11, 2015
aznt1217 TAKE A BREAK:
Where is the Model X Test Mule? Is there one? - Page 53�
Feb 11, 2015
FANGO Ugh Trip Chowdry what a stupid question�
Feb 11, 2015
Krugerrand Yeah, it's like he knows nothing about Tesla to ask that question.�
Feb 11, 2015
Causalien What of the buyer gets a discount and it also trickle up 3 levels?�
Feb 11, 2015
AudubonB Trip's Q: Bordered on the rude. And on the wrong side of the border, too. At least there are GF questions now.�
Feb 11, 2015
mibaro2 EM hasn't forgotten about the Roadster upgrade. Good stuff , even if Tesla doesn't make money on it.�
Feb 11, 2015
AudubonB Andrea's wasting everyone's time with her battery pack Qs. But on oil - let's see what EM has to say....
"..it's not changing any of my projections".�
Feb 11, 2015
Causalien My take...
1.9B cash. Cash is king.�
Feb 11, 2015
FANGO I really don't think this would be a good idea, nor would it necessarily add much demand. We already have owners selling cars, but they're doing it because they want to, not because they're being compensated. This would just turn owners into sleazy car dealers. Not beneficial to anything. And it would cost Tesla money. That doesn't help either.
Also note that Tesla doesn't give commissions to salespeople per se. And certainly not a thousand dollars.
Not only do I not think this is it, I truly hope this is not it.�
Feb 11, 2015
mibaro2 Good session.
This year is going to be a GREAT year !!�
Feb 11, 2015
doggusfluffy Well, I'm excited for the home battery announcement in a month or two. I really want to see the plans for that side of the business.�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati looking forward to 6.2, or whatever version we're supposedly getting next month. Really want blind spot monitors available, but thats not "fleet wide."�
Feb 11, 2015
32no Didn't he say an announcement within the next 6 months?�
Feb 11, 2015
spentan this is probably a stupid question, but would Tesla be able to sell me a home battery storage system, that could store 50 or so kWh, charge it overnight during offpeak and then use it as a power source during onpeak?�
Feb 11, 2015
Fanatic It must be the alternator upgrade! Will make engines more effective!?�
Feb 11, 2015
doggusfluffy My guess is it's tricky to negotiate with the utilities for grid storage while you're also killing their grid with residential solar competition.�
Feb 11, 2015
ryanjm Thank you!�
Feb 11, 2015
flankspeed8 In order to ramp up deliveries to 55k a year, it seems like logistics is going to be a problem will it not? I have closely followed the deliveries thread in the MS forum and despite what was said in the letter regarding vacations and bad weather causing the delay of the P85D's, there was no mention about the lack of ground transportation getting the car to the end customer. Many said that there cars sat in Fremont waiting for transportation. This seemed especially acute for Canadian deliveries. How difficult is this going to be to ramp up? There was no mention of this in the CC.�
Feb 11, 2015
SteveG3 Think you guys are taking that a little too literally. I suspect it's, we won't show the car and it's options until we absolutely have to in order to allow first reservation holders to configure.�
Feb 11, 2015
aznt1217 He didn't say options he said FEATURES�
Feb 11, 2015
Paul Carter Just posted this on the tally: Say lop off 4,143:
�
Feb 11, 2015
SteveG3 you say sandbagged, I say, they learned lesson of calling it as they see it with 35K this year, and silly flood of articles when taken to 33K and now delivering 31K and change.
- - - Updated - - -
I was responding to the comments wondering how people would configure their car if they don't know their choices.�
Feb 11, 2015
AlMc Exactly. Give guidance for production/delivery that you 'know' you can meet, and probably beat. Excellent CC by EM/JB, et. al.. Now, they need to deliver on the guidance. If they do all will be well with TM and TSLA. EM indicated previously, and hopefully they have all learned from the Q3 retooling and Q4 D issues, that ramping up will be their biggest challenge to realizing their mission statement.�
Feb 11, 2015
EarlyAdopter Because it could be a standard feature, say for instance the second row seats swivel, that they don't reveal until the first cars land in customer's hands.
Doesn't impact the options someone locks in months before.
Seeing as Tesla has four times as many reservations for the Model X than they can fulfill this year, it makes sense to hold off on revealing even more things that could spur additional demand until as long as possible.�
Feb 11, 2015
sundaymorning How about paying the dealers' salesman for every customer he/she refers to Tesla that translate into a reservation. Double the sleeze!!�
Feb 11, 2015
jhm "Turn two...the rest is food."
- - - Updated - - -
I think this is the idea. Plus, for people with solar, they could charge during the day and use the power later. They basically have this with DemandLogic already.
What I think would be really cool is the ability to do high speed DC charging to your car. So it charges for hours, then you plug in your car and bam its done in minutes. It would be like a mini Supercharger station in your own home, apartment complex or other destination.�
Feb 11, 2015
Bobbyducati holy #$@% that would be amazing!�
Feb 11, 2015
DJ Frustration Has anyone done a recap of the 4Q Conference Call for this who missed it?�
Feb 11, 2015
breser [Live Update and Discussion Thread] Tesla Motors Q4 2014 Earnings : teslamotors�
Feb 11, 2015
jkirkebo Hopefully they will make it off-grid compatible too. There are many off-gridders wanting to get rid of lead acid batteries.�
Feb 11, 2015
Theshadows This type of technology already exists. It's called "peak shaving", no reason it couldn't be implemented with Tesla's storage units, probably even customized by the customer.
If net metering laws are ever overturned every solar owner in the state will be flocking for these devices.
I would like to see a straight solar to car charge controller, dc.�
Feb 11, 2015
maoing +1. Q4 ER is very close to many folks expected. Disappointing Q4 financial results (actually miss bigger than most people think especially EPS) with conservative 2015 guidance (especially Q1 guidance). It sets expectation low for the beginning and bodes well for a good growth trajectory especially for stock price.
�
Feb 11, 2015
chickensevil Sorry, didn't mean that to sound negative. Yes, it makes sense to guide for deliveries you know you can make instead of being too optimistic. Elon acknowledged this is one of his big weaknesses and he is working on it. I think that is why they are holding their guns on 55k for this year.
- - - Updated - - -
That's a fair number I think. He did say slightly under 20k. I wouldn't think it would be a huge number of people holding dual reservations. In an absolute worst case I would put that at 1k but that feel like way too high a number. So I think starting now at your 19k number and adding to that as new reservations get reported would be a solid way forward to keeping tabs on it. I am sure we will have another final wave of drop outs when the final product is revealed and the piper comes around wanting paid. But I think most who wanted to cancel will have already done so now that there shouldn't be anymore major delays and the option for an AWD MS is out there.�
Feb 11, 2015
ecarfan Exactly. I think Elon meant that the X will come STANDARD with some very cool features that no one outside of Tesla has seen.
Of course the Tesla Motors X order web page will soon be up so people can configure their car how they want it. But the unannounced cool new features won't be revealed on the order page until the first car is delivered.�
Feb 11, 2015
Causalien So far, haven't seen any negative publications. Anyone found any? Did the 10k ModelS and 20k modelX reservation scared reporters away? (I thought Tesla is fully sold out for 2015)�
Feb 12, 2015
yobigd20 Yea...those numbers were way lower than I expected. If that statement is in fact true then that means they don't plan on building more than 20k model X's this year.�
Feb 12, 2015
MravecSK Hi
�
Feb 12, 2015
snellenr Wall Street Journal article (paywalled) last night: was running with this headline:
"Tesla�s Loss Widens as Deliveries Fall Short"
Tesla's Loss Widens as Deliveries Fall Short - WSJ�
Feb 12, 2015
mibaro2 WSJ reporting an-opening-for-bmw-as-tesla-fails�
Feb 12, 2015
pGo It is interesting to note that Elon went from Adventurous to not so for Model 3 in a few weeks time frame. I also felt that there will be a derivative (higher end with adventurous features) of Model 3 later. What do people make of this?�
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