Thứ Sáu, 4 tháng 11, 2016

EU Market Situation and Outlook part 1

  • Mar 29, 2014
    Matthias Buhl
    Just want to bring in my experience from Germany when it comes to Tesla perception. I talk a lot about the car with friends an family.

    My Parents
    Both of my parents drive an VW Phaeton and would be able to afford a Model S. My mother even considers to by one because she likes to be able to charge at home. But her concern at the moment is that the technology is relatively new and she rather wants to wait another two or three years to see if there are any downsides to the Tesla and to have a better availability of supercharging.

    My dad is a quality fanatic. A major downside for him is the (perceived) inferior quality of the interior of the Model S as often reported in reviews. I heard Elon say that they are constantly working on that and also want to bring higher quality seating to the Model S. Maybe this will be a none issue in a few months. My dad also was concerned about the range and the charging time and taking detours to eventually drive by a supercharger. When I showed him the battery swap video he was speechless and I think this could be really an option here in Germany. We want to be able to drive 200 km/h and don't want to stop every hour to wait 20-30 minutes at a supercharger after that. This probably seems crazy to most of you (to be honest it is a bit crazy).

    My Friends
    When I talk to younger folks a bit more my generation 25-35 years, I see basically everyone is stunned by the car. But the price is out of range for most of them. Most of my friends buy used cars at a price point of around 10-15 �. There is a long way to go here before they are in the reach of a long range EV. But as they grow their income and prices for EVs drop this generation could be a huge market for Tesla, since they are already used to adopting new technology and almost none of them was really concerned with range or winter temperatures or anything like that.

    Media
    Another real problem here in Germany is that the EVs known to the public are not really compelling products. (Renault twizy (people make fun of), BWI i3 (ugly)) I think this will be solved only with more and more Teslas on the road and people getting to test drive the car. There is only one other person besides me that I know of who test drove a Model S yet. Tesla is getting way less free media coverage here in Germany than in the U.S. Of course that has many reasons. One of them is basically that you can't really write about the Model S without al least indirectly dissing the traditional German car makers for not being able to compete with a U.S. car startup in the most prestigious car segment. Since a lot of advertising money is changing hands between German car manufacturers and news publishers I would say there is a potential conflict of interest.

    Internet
    And then there is the general FUD throughout internet forums and comments. VolkerP already addressed that in his post. I think the only way to effectively overcome these things is to patiently address every one of these concerns over and over again and educate the public about the facts of Teslas approach to EV technology. I've learned that most of the people react quite surprised when they read about the actual facts of Teslas cars. Hopefully reason will eventually win over FUD.

    My Car
    I leased a almost fully equipped new Audi A5 just last week for another 4 years. Main reason for not buying a Model S was price. I leased the Audi A5 for about 24% below the list price (460 � p.m. including warranty, service, maintenance etc.). This is a common incentive for business clients with the major German manufacturers. Since we have no real EV incentives in Germany and no business incentives by Tesla I think price will stay the main reason for most people until GenIII. What happens when prices are not so much an issue with this car is basically what you see in Norway at the moment. Hopefully I will be one of the first GenIII reservation holders here in Germany.

    P.S. I saw the first Model S in Germany on the Autobahn the day I picked up my new Audi at Neckarsulm (24-03-2014).
  • Mar 29, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    The 1467 figure includes most if not all of 28. March. (These are *not* completely accurate official figures. These are figures generated from a government website where you can look up information about licence plate numbers. By keeping track of which numbers pop up in the database with "Tesla Model S" as a description - one can extrapolate registration figures fairly accurately.)

    My guess is that we'll end up in the 1600-1650 area. (Weekends have been slower for registrations, and the cars would really need to be registered before 31. March if it is to be delivered that day.)
  • Mar 29, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    1600 was probably too optimistic. We probably won't see many more registrations than 1467. So far today there's been 1 new registration. I stopped by the service center earlier and the parking lot is emptying. See pictures here.

    The blue Model S that's in the proces of being delivered was registered on thursday, so with ~2 days from registration to delivery, a Model S that is supposed to be delivered on monday will have to be registred today. (Maybe with fewer cars in the pipeline, they can push them out a bit faster, but still, we probaly aren't talking about very many cars remaining.)
  • Mar 29, 2014
    maoing
    I didn't realized that registration should happen 1-2 days earlier than real delivery. Anyway even 1500 is a fatastic number IMO. I believe tesla service center will manage to kick out every possible delivery out of the door by 12am 04/01, every car counts in Q1 ER. Thanks again for first-hand report.
  • Mar 29, 2014
    hummingbird
    Thank you for your report from Germany Matthias !

    FYI: I live near Palo Alto, California. Around here, more and more each month, the Model S and Nissan Leaf is popping up everywhere I look. Naturally Model S is the car everyone wants. In this area of the SF Bay Area I think we are getting to a situation where if someone was in the market for a high-end car north of USD$70,000, and if that person does not buy the Model S, he is going to look retarded. The situation is very similar to the Blackberry when the iPhone first came out on the AT&T network in the USA. Blackberry was a great device before the iPhone came out. But then very soon most AT&T Blackberry users switched to the iPhone and later Samsung. I think this is what's happening with high-end car buyers and owners. As soon as they acquire a good understanding of what the Model S is, an EV that's completely different & better than an ICE car, they will choose the Model S. I suspect Model X will do even better in 2015/2016.

    The Model S is sold strictly by word-of-mouth. That's very powerful once it gets going. One tells 2, 2 tell 4, 4 tell 8, 8 tell 16, etc. I suspect the underlying true demand for the Model S is a very big number worldwide (Americas, Europe, Asia). No one knows for sure at the moment what that number is because the Model S is production constrained. I suspect the situation is very much like the old Blackberry vs. iPhone in 2007/2008/2009. A massive % of high-end car buyers and owners will switch to the Model S in the next few years if production can ramp up.

    I agree with your father that the interior of the Model S is currently not good. However, if your father is in the market to buy a car next week, I suspect he will choose the Model S (because when all things are considered, the current Model S is better than any ICE car). I suspect the interior of the Model S will quickly improve by 2015/2016.


  • Mar 29, 2014
    TSLAopt

    This is is good analysis from the most mature Model S market, Palo Alto. I was there a couple months ago and they were everywhere. I suspect 1-2 years from now where I live in the northeast, the wealthy areas will start looking like that too...there are still a lot of people convinced they need AWD here in the Northeast not realizing the S as is right now is actually still great in the snow.

    Someone else on this board recently heard from a sales person that AWD will be able to be bought/retrofit into current the current S....I think that will be extremely popular to do if the price isn't too much (ie. Sub 8k)
  • Mar 29, 2014
    HenryF
    If somebody were to buy a Model S in Norway, take all the incentives, ship the car to say Germany and re-sell it there, will there be any profit?
  • Mar 29, 2014
    dirkhh
    The Germany discussion is re-hashing what has been discussed here several times over the last 6 months. The Model S is not competitive in Germany. Way too expensive, ridiculous range when driven at Autobahn speed, perceived inferior top speed, way too many small issues here and there and everywhere.
    They'll sell a few hundred a year for the true believers in EVs - but without a massive change in range and top speed and without a strong subsidy they have no chance to reach the general public.
  • Mar 30, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    No, the Model S isn't very much cheaper in Norway, you only save VAT, which you'll have to pay anyway when you import into Germany. Access to car pool lanes, cheap electricity, toll road fees exemption, etc obviously doesn't follow the car.
  • Mar 30, 2014
    perdru
    hummingbird wrote :
    " The Model S is sold strictly by word-of-mouth. That's very powerful once it gets going. One tells 2, 2 tell 4, 4 tell 8, 8 tell 16, etc. I suspect the underlying true demand for the Model S is a very big number worldwide (Americas, Europe, Asia). "

    Tesla�s non-advertising concept is probably still applied in the US - in Europe , particularly in Norway they advertise.
  • Mar 30, 2014
    Thomas_K
    To boost EU sales Tesla needs to get Superchargers in Denmark and southern Sweden up and running before june. They need to efficiently connect Norways Superchargers to the existing ones in EU. The latest maps indicate some coverage in Denmark by mid 2014, but only as far south as Gothenburg in Sweden. The distance between Gothenburg and Copenhagen needs to be covered too. They are expecting people to take a ferry from Gothenburg SE to Fredrikshavn DK. This is not a good solution. I hope they are not underestimating the comercial value of 4000+ norwegian Model S hitting central europe for summer vacation.

    Supercharger maps from 24:38:
    Tesla Motors Scandinavian Director at Learning to work differently with strategy - YouTube
  • Mar 30, 2014
    Right_Said_Fred
    Let's face it: Germany is not going to do it for Tesla in the coming 2-3 years. But that isn't such a big deal, as the US, China en some smaller EU-countries will sweep up all Model S and Model X production capacity at Freemont anyway.

    Why Germany will not be a success right now:

    - Germans are a bit boring in their car choice (sorry, no offense meant) and don't mind driving the same model Audi, Mercedes, BMW or Porsche that half the country is driving. No urge to stick out of the crowd (except for some tuning enthousiasts).

    - Germans prefer to buy home-made cars and have a lot of home-made brands to choose from. Many foreign brands suffer from this, not just Tesla. Volvo also hasn�t been able to gain a foothold and the same goes for Italian, French and Asian brands.

    - American cars have an image of bad quality. Even if the Model S is of high quality (still some improvement needed), Tesla would still suffer from this image.

    - Many Germans think they need a car that can easily drive 200+ km for hours, while in practice only a small percentage of car owners actually drives that fast. And more and more highways have speed limits anyway. But it's a lingering �need�, just like many Americans feel the �need� to have a gun to protect themselves (but will never actually need it).

    - Germans are wary of EV's, which is an image problem. Until now EV�s were almost always small cars with little range.

    - There are no EV-incentives. Ofcourse it isn't hard to see why: incentives don't favor the German car industry, which doesn�t have many EV�s yet. Anything that hurts the German car industry, which employs millions directly and indirecty, is off limits. It�s a bit of a hypocrisy ofcourse: spending tens of billions on subsidies for windmills and solar panels which now cover the country, but not doing much against polluting cars (actually even trying to sabotage European legislation which put limits on CO2-output). But then, solar panels are being made in Germany and clean cars aren�t. And unfortunately most people need incentives before they do anything �green� (not just in Germany by the way). Subsidies on solar panels are/were actually so generous you could make a profit, so you can now find villages where half the houses are covered with solar panels, and some houses even have panels on the walls.

    It would be a good thing if German car companies would introduce more clean cars, hopefully forced upon them by European regulation (which has in the end passed, albeit in a somewhat watered down version). Maybe that finally opens the door for some more stimulus.

    Footnote: I spend a lot of time in Germany, my business depends on Germans, so I believe I know them reasonably wel. They are lovely, sweet people (as long as you avoid the �formal� ones). ?
  • Mar 30, 2014
    HenryF
    Can someone fix the title of this thread please? It's giving me a sore eye. Thanks
  • Mar 30, 2014
    hummingbird
    Thank you for explaining this view from Germany RSF. That makes sense. Jobs are very important. Culture is too. I suspect one day soon, somewhere sub $200/kWh battery cost, the EV industry in Germany will turn. When it does, Germany will move very quickly as a nation. The tipping point is not too many years away. Sub $200 is coming for sure. At sub $150, it's all over for ICE and big oil.

    Question: currently, do you see any Nissan LEAFs in German cities at all?

    It's interesting to note Elon Musk recently commented that he expects the Model S to do well in Germany because Germans bought the most number of Roadsters behind Americans. Perhaps those are simply enthusiasts.


  • Mar 30, 2014
    Right_Said_Fred
    There aren't many EV's around. I believe there are only about 1,000 Leafs in what is a very big country. The Smart EV did better, but distinguishing it from a regular Smart isn't easy.

    I always had my doubts about Elons argument that the Roadster did well in Germany and that therefore the Model S should too. First of all, the Roadster really didn't do that well. Less than 200 cars were sold in three years time. And the Roadster wasn't competing in a highly competitive part of the market, the Model S is.

    I hope that in a few years time big European countries like Germany, France and Italy will become more EV-minded. In accomplishing that a solid supercharging infrastructure might be even more helpful than a lower kWh-price for the batteries.
  • Mar 30, 2014
    SebastianR
    Watch for the i3 sales in Germany, they are amazingly strong (if the rumors are true) but of course nowhere near the sales numbers for a Golf.

    I think what is missing in the list of reasons mentioned above is the company car policies/incentives. A large majority of cars in the BMW 5 series / E-Class / Audi A6 are company cars. This means that Tesla needs to break into oftentimes decades old agreements between specific suppliers and companies before their cars can be offered to employees.

    A friend of mine once wanted a higher level Lexus but ended up with an Audi due to established supplier agreements...

    Anyways, I think it is way to soon to tell for Germany: Germans are very conservative/slow. It took years before people started to buy iPhones after the rest of the world bought them in masses :)
  • Mar 30, 2014
    mrdoubleb
    At this point, strong i3 sales in Germany do much more good than harm as it legitimates EVs and accelerates the bildout of charging infrastructure.
  • Mar 31, 2014
    Auzie
    Similar situation in Australia, many people drive 'company cars'. Most of these cars are leased by employer and provided to employees under various financial arrangements. Petrol card is part of the deal. The employer is often in control of selection of lease cars models. Some employers do not have any restrictions, ie employees can lease any models they choose. Some employers with large fleets make a conscious choice to incentivize 'green cars' in order to reduce their carbon footprint. In my view, company policies regarding lease models selection is more likely to be favourable to Tesla than not.
  • Mar 31, 2014
    AustinPowers
    Quite right. I can see the same thing at my company. The fleet management has been outsourced years ago, and the supplier doesn't offer any EV's in its lineup.

    I agree with hummingbird that battery prices are key. As soon as EVs become competitive price-wise, they will find many buyers even here in Germany.

    One other thing about prices by the way (which I think hasn't been mentioned before in this thread): Germans like to bargain when it comes to cars. Most people who buy cars see it as kind of a competition "who gets the best deal / biggest bargain". Almost no one pays the list price. They go to the dealer, configure their car of choice, and then negotiate a price, which normally ends somewhere between 10 and 25 percent below list price - depending on the popularity of the model. About 15% on average seems realistic.
    Now imagine such a German buyer coming to Tesla. He configures a Model S, then asks about the price (expecting to be able to negotiate), but Tesla says "no way, list price is final price". I am sure quite a few people will be put off by that and rather turn to an alternative manufacturer (unless they absolutely want an EV or especially a Model S).

    Oh and I looked up the numbers from the KBA (official body for car registrations in Germany): there were 30 Model S registered in January, and 66 in February this year.
  • Mar 31, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    How do the company car programs work in Germany? Are all costs covered by the company, so that fuel and maintenance savings benefit the company, or do these savings benefit the user?

    If the former is correct - then EVs will need to be cheaper at purchase than fossil equivalents, to entice the companies to include the EVs in the company car program. If the latter is correct - that benefits EVs, as a company will be able to include maintenance costs and fuel costs in their calculations to arrive at a favourable TCO analysis.
  • May 13, 2014
    hummingbird
    Someone at another site posted the following regarding Norway's EV tax benefit, is this true? If so, what's the likelihood the 50,000 cap will be increased before it is reached?


    "You can sell everything electric in Norway because of tax benefit. But that is only for the first 50.000 EVs. Now they have overpass 32.000 EVs registration and there are new competitors, i3, Kia Soul electric, E-Golf"

  • May 13, 2014
    taraquin
    When the total number og EVs passes 50k they may change or remove som of the incentives.
  • May 14, 2014
    Alfred
    Where is that number from? According to a Tesla representative in Zurich, between September 2013 (when deliveries started) and May 2014, about 460 Model have been registered. He also stated that Switzerland is the second most important market for Tesla in Europe, after Norway.
  • May 14, 2014
    schonelucht
    Tesla sold over 1400 cars in the Netherlands since September, that makes Switzerland the 3rd most important European market.
  • May 14, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    As taraquin said, they might remove or change some of the incentives after 50k.

    Basically, all the parties have agreed to maintain the current incentives until 2017 or 50k eletric cars have been sold, whichever comes first. This does not however mean that the incentives expire or anything when the limits are reached. They will merely be renegotiated.

    Personally, I think that the incentives will be gradually stepped down as more electric cars become available, and their cost decreases. There's still not a single party that has said they want to get rid of the incentives outright, at least.
  • May 14, 2014
    hummingbird
    @Yggdrasill and others from Norway region,

    Norway deliveries were 1179 Q4 and 2056 Q1. How do you see this trending in the next two quarters? Care to give us a guess for Q2/Q3?
  • May 14, 2014
    Alfred
    are those in Holland identical with registrations in Holland. Could there be a "Tilburg-effect?
  • May 14, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    My guess:

    Q2: 1000-2000
    Q3: 1500-2500
    Q4: 1500-2500

    Sales are at an extremely high level, but with more superchargers, service centers and publicity, the trend should be stable or rising slightly. March, however, was probably an outlier.
  • May 14, 2014
    Newb
    Here you go: auto-schweiz: Autoverkäufe nach Modellen

    Official statistics > representative talk
  • May 14, 2014
    Mario Kadastik
    Well my car arrived without plates or anything to indicate it saw the Netherlandish DMV. And i had to "pick up" from tilburg, which meant I sent a transport company to pick the car up. And I doubt transit license plates count as the ones in Estonia didn't get shown in statistics because in december there was just one car (mine) and the other Model S that arrived on the same truck and got transit plates to go on to Finland wasn't listed anywhere...
  • May 14, 2014
    32no
    Tesla deliveries.png



    It looks like the top 5 markets in Europe in terms of sales and store/service center/supercharger investments are:
    1. Norway
    2. Netherlands
    3. Germany
    4. Switzerland
    5. Belgium

    I also suspect that UK will overtake Switzerland and/or Belgium.

    The red under Germany is an estimate. All of the numbers come from http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/ and TMC. I would appreciate any number corrections.

    EDIT:
    Finland numbers corrected (Thanks Pate)
    EDIT 2:
    Sweden numbers corrected (Thanks Taraquin)
    Estonia numbers corrected (Thanks Mario)
    Switzerland numbers updated (Thanks Chillong)
  • May 14, 2014
    Pate
    The numbers for Finland are not correct. Here are the correct numbers:



    December 20132
    January 20141
    February 20143
    March 20149
    April 201416
  • May 15, 2014
    hummingbird
    @32no,

    Thank you for the detailed spreadsheet. A suggestion, you might as well add USA and Canada to it, then everything will add up nicely to ww figures reported by the company.

    Would be appreciated by all if you could share the spreadsheet somehow. If not possible, that's ok too.

    (Canada 2014 Jan to Apr: 20 19 119 20 )
  • May 16, 2014
    taraquin
    The Swedennumbers are wrong:
    October 13: 8
    November: 2
    December: 6
    January: 5
    Total: 71 anno 1.may
  • May 17, 2014
    Mario Kadastik
    Also numbers for Estonia are not correct. The correct ones are:

    Dec 1
    Jan 0
    Feb 1
    Mar 3 (*1 officially registered, but the other two were paid to Tesla in March and loaded on truck)
    Apr 0 (*2 registered in first week, but actually paid for to Tesla in March).

    It seems there will be multiple in May as far as I know, could even be a doubling of the total car count. Will let you know in early June when the numbers are published.
  • May 17, 2014
    chillong
    April in Switzerland is 16
  • May 19, 2014
    hobbes
  • May 19, 2014
    DaveT
    I was re-watching videos from 2012/2013 where Elon and others talk about Model X and it's AWD system. I'm thinking that the extra motor will significantly improve top speed since two motors will be running together. When Tesla releases AWD for the Model S, I think this will solve the top speed/autobahn problem for Germany. AWD will also add acceleration (probably taking the Model S Performance AWD down to under 4 seconds 0-60mph). If there have been hesitation in Germany because of top speed of the Model S, this issue will likely soon be resolved with the Model S AWD. Just some food for thought.
  • May 19, 2014
    vgrinshpun
    Likely under 3.5 seconds. My P85+ is already under 4.0 seconds, without AWD.:biggrin:
  • May 19, 2014
    Johann Koeber
    Top speed by itself is not so much of a problem. Limited range at high speed much more so.

    I went 600 km from Nuremburg to Berlin with only 1 SC along the way. I do not feel limited on the first (ca. 200 km) leg. But on the second leg 130 km/h is too much.
  • May 19, 2014
    DaveT
    Hey vgrinshpun (or others), what's your guess on the 0-60mph times for the Model X AWD (non-performance) and the Model X AWD Performance?

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think AWD w/two motors should help with the range problem at high speeds since the load will be spread out between the two motors allowing each motor to run at a lower rpm. Overall, my guess is the AWD system will allow for better range at higher speeds.
  • May 19, 2014
    abasile
    This might help some, but I expect the difference will be marginal since the existing motor is already quite efficient. Further aerodynamic improvements to help range are likely out of the question for the next few years (the current aerodynamics are already quite impressive). I think the only way to gain substantial range increases at high speeds will be by adding battery capacity. A 120 kWh battery would certainly help on the Autobahn.
  • May 19, 2014
    mrdoubleb
    Johann, at the risk of going slightly off topic, what's your range experience @130kmh on the highway? I know it's never a constant 130, plus there is elevation, wind, etc., but what is the "real European highway range"?
  • May 19, 2014
    DaveT
    It will be interesting to see the range of the Model S AWD at high speeds vs the range of the Model S rear-wheel drive at high speeds. If someone was driving on the autobahn at over 100mph+, my guess would be that the AWD would get substantially better range than the non-AWD Model S.

    I ran across this video the other day and found it really interesting. If you're busy, just watch from 0:55. The Tesla employee shares how having two motors can be more efficient than having just one.

  • May 19, 2014
    mrdoubleb
    I do not know if this has been linked before, but there is a wealth of good data on European car sales over at the ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturer's Association). The only bad news for us is that as Tesla sales are still small over here, so it's under "other". However, their statistics do show the trends in the EU27 + Iceland, Norway and Switzerland and we can even see how Tesla's main competitors are doing by brand.

    The latest statistics released 4 days ago show a steady increase of EU car sales for about a year now - good news for us, I guess. Some of the highlights:
    graf.PNG
    table1.png
    table2.png
  • May 20, 2014
    maxwell
    Just read this article: Germans say to electric cars - Energy Ticker - MarketWatch

    It says that "In the next five years, German carmakers are expected to build 440,000 electric cars a year,..."

    That's more or less the timeframe of the Gen. III. Sure they have enough production capacity in terms of more or less flexible production, and let's assume that they accomplish a good motor and controller, BUT:
    Does anybody have a clue where they plan to get the batteries from? I read in other threads the gigafactories will be a major advantage for TESLA and i remember a sentence, but can't find the source, that "every month the "others" don't have a huge battery-factory, will be a head start for TESLA".
  • May 20, 2014
    chillong
    Some pretty big changes on the supercharger map for Europe for winter 14/15. Thats some commitment to Europe! Central Europe is pretty well covered now :D
    Supercharger | Tesla Motors
  • May 20, 2014
    NigelM
    Welcome to TMC. Excellent question but no, I don't think it's been thought through, especially by the journalist.
  • May 20, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    I find it odd that Tesla is so densely blanketing some markets whilst entirely ignoring others. Germans like to holiday on the Spanish coast, but they'll have to leave their Teslas at home? And no trips up to the Baltics or down to Greece?
  • May 20, 2014
    hobbes
    From what I understand the top speed is not limited by power output, but by maximum RPMs with just one gear. Actually I guess when accelerating at a low speed, the power output is much higher than driving constantly at a high speed. So with a second motor, the main advantage is that you have four wheels to transfer the torque onto the road, so I would bet on greater acceleration (if the vehicle mass doesn�t go up too much), not higher top speed.
  • May 20, 2014
    chillong
    well, Elon's stated goal was to win the german market and for that you need a very dense SC distribution (High speed autobahn, germans attraction to cheap/free things). I think it makes sense to start building a dense network in central europe, where also the most potential buyers are waiting. And with that network, people can easily reach Italy, the Alps, southern France and even the Costa Brava. With these areas covered, most holiday areas are covered for the norwegian, dutch and germans. This is only winter 14/15, I hope they wont stop building SC after so Baltics, Eastern Europe, Spain, Southern Italy etc. can be covered.
  • May 20, 2014
    maxwell
    Thank you. It's a pleasure to be here. I try to find out more. Short introduction of mine: 0.03k years old, passioned engineer, i have many parallels to the "Oatmeal-Comic" because i'm luckily not talented with combustion things. I own no Model S, saving for it.

    I hardly can imagine, that those mighty and intelligent companies do not prepare and sometimes waste their engineering-power with ICEs. A friend of mine is developing clutches, how boooring! Elon is right, they need competition to start EVs. Somebody has to show them.

    I experienced many times that even richer people whom i try to convince to order a TESLA, want to wait until a german brand has a good one. "i can't come up with an american car" is unfortunately a frequent part of the answer. It's really an image-thing here.
  • May 20, 2014
    SebastianR
    I think the key is to make sure that Germans disassociate Tesla from GM (and other horrible US car makers) and associate Tesla with Apple and other high-tech US brands that are (even) recognized in Germany. Also, don't ever underestimate the power of a proper Probefahrt. Once you sat in a Tesla and experience the acceleration, the smooth ride and the vibration-free mode of transportation things will change. They will change slowly (it is Germany after all) but they will change.
  • May 20, 2014
    maxwell
    Exactly. Many of them like silicon valley technology. Go for PROBEFAHRT!
  • May 21, 2014
    Auzie
    It is a great pleasure to have you here maxwell.

    Clutches design job is perhaps not the coolest job around, but your clutches designer friend might be getting some good karma points there :cool:.

    Regarding Tesla winning German market, it might not be so difficult. I would expect the nation that has engineering in its genes to recognize and appreciate a good piece of engineering, regardless of where it comes from.
  • May 21, 2014
    Mario Kadastik
    I guess you read my post here: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 432

    Yes I would love to hear where they plan to take the batteries :) Making bold claims is one way to try to stop people from buying Teslas. The rumored Audi Q8 with 600 km range and cheaper than Tesla and the GM claims of Tesla comparable range car in 1-2 years are what's usually called vaporware. It's just bold claims and no content to it and is just designed to disturb the marketplace and buy time. But if they want to build 440k cars, they're welcome to it, just need to start producing a factory for it ;)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yes I've noticed it too. I sent Tesla the following picture that shows how they could with just 5 superchargers cover the Baltics as the speed limits in the region don't allow you to average above 90km/h anyway and therefore 300km real world distances are easily doable in an 85kWh Model S no matter what the weather is like. At a later date they can then double the count and reduce the distance to 150km, but at least they'd cover a huge region at a minimal cost and at the same time complete a circuit around the Baltic sea giving Norwegians and central EU the ability to travel to the eastern part as well as for example St Petersburg. Let's hope the SC planning team takes this into account.

    Even more, there are incentives in place that could get Tesla to get 70% of the cost covered in LV and LT for the SC buildout. So I see no reason beyond prioritization why this shouldn't be done :)

    attachment.php?attachmentid=49787&d=1400599552.png
  • May 21, 2014
    Fast Laner
    High Robert,

    Germans will move a Model S to the shores of North/Baltic Sea situated in Germany.
    They will move it to a capital of a neighboring country or for the ski vacations in the alps.

    But they will take the plane to the mediterean shores and have a rental car if needed.
    Geography and habits in the Americas and Europe are quite different.

    Fast Laner
  • May 21, 2014
    maxwell
    Let's assume that. In the case of winning the market i also betting on Gen. III, because i think this customer segment might be less connected to a certain brand. The wealthy people will probably buy a Model S and still keep some others. Now i know a man who bought a Model S in my region - try to figure out how to get a drive...
    I worked in Switzerland for three years and had a VOLVO there. The fact that there is no Swiss car manufacturer makes them open to many brands. Good for TESLA! I saw my first Roadster there too (around 2009?). How awesome, i wish i could have seen its potential there.

    Now, back in Germany, i went for a VW. Literally everybody knows how it works, you always find a friend who had exactly the same issue/problem before, and you have masses of spare parts and service points (which you won't need that much with a TESLA of course).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ah the moat, that's it. I'll see what i can find out.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Completely agree. Spain or Greece = flying.
  • Jun 2, 2014
    maoing
    EU folks,

    Any updates for May delivery number especially Norway/Germany and so on?
  • Jun 2, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    Some figures for Norway (April in paranthesis):

    Tesla Model S: 371 (171)
    Nissan Leaf: 342 (451)
    BMW i3: 131 (236)
    Other: 502

    Total number of electric cars sold: 1346

    The electric cars got a 10.9% market share, while it was 10.4% in April.

    (More figures will follow - they've only released some of the figures.)
  • Jun 2, 2014
    maoing
    Thanks Yggdrasill. How does May number compare with Feburary number in Norway?

    Never mind. I found it in previous post, it was 431 in Feburary.

  • Jun 3, 2014
    Fast Laner
  • Jun 3, 2014
    Mario Kadastik
    May registrations in Estonia: 1 :)
    I know one June registration already and a couple of cars are coming in the next few weeks, we'll know how many make it in June though.
  • Jun 4, 2014
    Pate
    May registrations in Finland: 12

    One of them is mine. :)
  • Jun 4, 2014
    GSP
    Congratulations! :biggrin:

    GSP
  • Jun 4, 2014
    matbl
    May registrations in Sweden: 24
  • Jun 4, 2014
    SebastianR
    May registrations in Germany still pending, didn't find anything on the KBA website just yet. Will keep you posted.
  • Jun 4, 2014
    schonelucht
  • Jun 5, 2014
    SebastianR
  • Jun 5, 2014
    SteveG3
    Bloomberg article out this morning had the following comments about Germany:

    "It represents the right direction, a paradigm change," said Michael Willberg, chief executive officer of German headphones maker Ultrasone AG. He got a Tesla Model S in February after driving Mercedes and Audi cars for 20 years and has driven from the Munich area to Berlin, Cologne and Dresden. "Tesla is the car of our times."

    "Germany's premium automakers feel Tesla's rise more keenly because they're expected to be the biggest innovators," said Juergen Pieper, a Frankfurt-based analyst at Bankhaus Metzler. "Tesla will be able to win over people who'd normally buy a BMW. Even in Germany, people are lining up to test drive" the U.S. carmaker's Model S sedan, the brand's only car."

    While the second comment sounds very encouraging, I take it with a grain of salt as I have no idea how reliable this analyst is (my experience of U.S. analysts is some are straight shooters, some are not... though those that are not have thus far only been among the bearish).
  • Jun 5, 2014
    Fast Laner
    High SteveG3!

    Please see my post #222 on the same page about TESLA which is not writen by an analyst.
  • Jun 5, 2014
    SteveG3
    Thanks Fast Laner. Had no idea how big a piece (40%) China was to VW sales.
  • Jun 5, 2014
    Chickenlittle
    Does tesla immediately raise price in Europe with the euro weakening. If not it may hurt margin or they could ship more to china
  • Jun 7, 2014
    matbl
    This can be easily checked in the Tesla MS design studio by selecting various european countries.
    But no thry don't. It would be impossible as well since they get paid 4-5 months after confirmation when the price is locked down in local currency.
    So instead they do like many other large companies doing international trade. They "insure" their exchange rates to some degree. Some one with better financial vocabulary can probably give the proper woed for it.
  • Jun 8, 2014
    Alfred
  • Jun 8, 2014
    Auzie
    Alfred, thanks for posting the link.

    It seems that Tesla is selling well due to 'wow' factor.

    Swiss sales 2013

    Porsche Panamera 232
    Tesla 213
    Merc S 189
    BMW7 163
    Audi 8 118
    VW Phaeton 15

    Swiss sales 2014

    Merc S 186
    Tesla 149
  • Jun 8, 2014
    Mario Kadastik
    Insignificant, but in Estonia there was 1 registration in May. Quite many got delayed to June. There's at least one June registration already and as far as I know next week a couple more cars are to be picked up from Tilburg.
  • Jun 8, 2014
    dirkhh
    So Mercedes S class stayed about flat in the two time frames you are comparing (not sure if this is all of 2013 or just the same months), but Tesla dropped more than 25%?
    I may be missing your point.
  • Jun 8, 2014
    RobStark

    I am pretty sure that is all of 2013 vs 2014 year to date.

    The all new 2014 S Class is doing quite well all over the world.
  • Jun 8, 2014
    Auzie
    No point meant, I just listed the numbers as they are reported in the linked article.

    2013 numbers are for the full year. 2014 numbers are up to the date of the article.
  • Jun 9, 2014
    matbl
    OT!
    ? I thought it was introduced in 2013?
    Or are you confusing american model years with actual years? ;)
  • Jun 10, 2014
    RobStark
    I never said the all new S Class was introduced in calendar year 2014.

    I identified the new S Class as model year 2014. And it is so in the USA and Europe. The W222 S Class debuted on May 15 2013 in Sindelfingen ,Germay and entered production in June 2013. And commenced sales in September 2013 both in Europe and the USA. It was and is the 2014 S Class. I did not confuse anything.
  • Jun 10, 2014
    matbl
    In EU, only production dates are relevant. If it is produced in 2013, it is officially a 2013 model. Just like Tesla. :)
    Another good example of this is BMW. Afaik, the make model changes up to 4 times a year. So production date is what counts...
    In my opinion, this model year crap should really end.
  • Jun 10, 2014
    dirkhh
    Austria data for Tesla

    Month# of Tesla registered
    Jan6
    Feb7
    Mar25
    Apr8
    May10
  • Jun 10, 2014
    32no
    Tesla europe.png
    Please inform me of any mistakes in the spreadsheet. I use http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/ as the source for my numbers, and the rest of the numbers come from this thread.

    Re-posting an updated version of my chart. It seems that Tesla is going to deliver around 3400 cars to Europe in this quarter. I also project that Tesla will deliver around 14,200 Model S to Europe this year with a quarterly break down of: 3056 cars in Q1, 3400 cars in Q2, 3800 cars in Q3, and 4000 cars in Q4. Tesla is expanding rapidly in Europe as they have 15 stores coming soon as well as 20 service centers coming soon. Also, the supercharger map for Europe shows 120+ locations for Winter 2014-2015. I suspect that European deliveries will continue to grow as there is expansion in the number of stores, service centers, and superchargers. Europe could grow to be the same deliveries as the US had in 2013, which would be about 18,000 deliveries. Also, in Europe, deliveries seem to be more reflective of demand than in the US. In addition the current wait time in all European countries is 4-5 months, which translates to a backlog of at least 4000 cars (potentially all the way up to 6000+).

    Thanks Schonelucht for providing a link to Belgium numbers for April/May.
  • Jun 10, 2014
    bmek
    I like your table, and your forecasts. Given the recent deliveries of RHD in UK, what are the UK numbers in your forecast for Q2, Q3 and Q4? Also, how many deliveries do you forecast for Norway?
  • Jun 10, 2014
    maoing
    With Norway, Netherlands and Germany number is out, it sounds TM only delivered 1K or slightly more in April and May to EU. So to meet 3400 forcast, a 2400 to go in June? Which is more than 2193 in March. Will see frantic delivery again by end of quarter? Really can't understand this delivery pattern especially 1K cars supposed to be in the pipe by end of Q1.

  • Jun 10, 2014
    32no
    I suspect that the total for April and May in Europe will be close to 1100, leaving 2300 for March. I'm not sure whether March was an anomaly, or something that we will be seeing again. I saw your post about China having a frenzy-like delivery rate, which makes me less sure that Europe will be the same as in March. If there are 1000 deliveries in China in Q2, and 3400 for Europe, that leaves 3100+ for the US (which seems about right). I don't see 2000 cars in China given the information that you provided, but 1500 is certainly possible. It seems that there are about 500 cars that are either going to China (to make the total 1500) or to Europe (to make the total 3400). I PM'ed the guy who initially mentioned the delivery frenzy in Norway (towards the end of March) to ask whether he has anything about this month yet.

    vgrinshpun visited the London store while on vacation and the representative told him that the current in-store order rate is 50 per week, and there is a 50/50 split between online and in-store orders, which means the order rate back in April was about 100 cars per week. Elon Musk also said during the Sky News interview in UK that UK could become the 3rd, 4th, or 5th largest market in the world for the Model S. China and US will probably be the top 2, and depending on how Norway and Germany (aggressive build out in Germany currently) pan out, the UK will be the 3rd, 4th, or 5th largest market in the world.

    I cannot say how Tesla will expand specifically in the UK market and Norway because the two of them are the largest wildcards in Europe.
  • Jun 10, 2014
    dirkhh
    "aggressive build out in Germany"... yeah, the numbers are indeed truly impressive.
    57 Model S were registered in May (48 April, 143 March)
    Compared to
    171 BMW 7 series
    173 VW Phaeton (seriously? 3:1 outsold by the Phaeton? that hurts)
    211 Porsche Panerama
    252 BMW 6 series
    274 Audi A8/S8
    355 Audi A7/S7/RS7
    395 Mercedes CLS
    905 Mercedes S (!!!!!)

    It did outsell the Maserati Quatroporte (19) and the Bentley Continental (33)

    I continue to be absolutely puzzled by the people talking up the success in Germany and the amazing market this will be.
    I guess the one silver lining is that Model S is up ~20% while the "Upperclass" (Oberklasse) of cars overall was up only 2%

    I'm too lazy to go back but I remember the posts after the 143 in March talking about the doubling month over month. Which gets us to 570 cars in Mai, right? Hey, only off by a factor of ten.

    But who's counting. Clearly not the people who keep talking about what a great market Germany is for the Model S.

    Sorry if I sound snarky. But clearly the data don't support the hype.
  • Jun 10, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    I doubt the current data would be of much use. In March, they had 2 weeks at the end of the month with about 100 deliveries per day. The cars might not have arrived yet.
  • Jun 10, 2014
    schonelucht
  • Jun 11, 2014
    32no
    Dirkhh, you seem to be missing the point. Tesla doesn't "build out" deliveries, they build out infrastructure such as stores, service centers, and superchargers. Do you really think Tesla is spending so much on this infrastructure just to be selling a little more than the Quttroporte and the Continental? Also, in the German market, foreign manufacturers need another component other than great cars, and that is time. The German market loves its own cars, and it takes more time than any other market to convince them to buy a foreign car. Obviously Tesla plans to try to challenge other automakers here because otherwise, they wouldn't build out such a network. You might make the argument that Germany gets more attention because it is the largest country in terms of population in Europe currently. However, it wouldn't make sense for Tesla to build out stores, service centers, and superchargers if there are no underlying sales or potential sales, regardless of population size of the country.

    Also, just because deliveries are low in the first two months of the quarter, doesn't mean anything. June is the deciding month because like March, it is the last month of the quarter. Mark my words, June could bring 200 deliveries in Germany.
  • Jun 11, 2014
    dirkhh
    I don't think I'm missing your point at all. I just disagree with it. The investment in Germany is admirable and a necessary requirement for success, but it is not creating a commensurate return. The Portland store delivered more Model S last month than all of Germany. There is a long long long thread elsewhere about all the reasons why Tesla is underperforming in Germany. Opening more stores is not going to address those.
  • Jun 11, 2014
    Chickenlittle
    Yeah it's also underperforming in china and England. Very few cars delivered. Hong Kong a disaster no cars delivered. Depends on your time frame doesn't it
  • Jun 11, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    I do find it interesting that, no so many months ago, Elon was touting Germany as a high priority market for Tesla. China now seems to be the darling, although Tesla does continue to invest in building out the SC network in Germany. Has Tesla shifted focus away from Europe to Asia (the "pivot to Asia"?)
  • Jun 11, 2014
    Chickenlittle
    He did state a priority and is still treating it as such. Perhaps German pride underestimated but still staying the course. There is need to build out superchargers there for the rest of Europe anyway. I believe they will have success but will take time. There is risk of not concentrating on single area but I do not believe inconsistent with treating both Asia and Europe as priorities
  • Jun 11, 2014
    pz1975
    He did make those quotes while he was in Germany. Maybe it was a bit of grandstanding for the locals? Not that I don't think Germany is important to Tesla, but I don't see why it necessarily has to be THE most important market with so many others with amazing potential - China, UK, eventually Japan, India...
  • Jun 11, 2014
    32no
    Are you telling me Tesla is wasting money opening new stores? They are opening more stores, service centers, and supercharging stations just to sell the same amount of cars? Elon did tell his team to spend money as fast as they could, but he also said not to waste it. In my books, opening more stores without creating more demand is a waste of money. Also, I stress again that a key component in Germany is time; buyers must be completely convinced that a foreign product is worthy because of national pride, and that takes time. Germany is currently the 4th largest market for Tesla in the world, and although that will change as the UK and China come online, Germany deliveries will continue to grow.
  • Jun 11, 2014
    chillong
    There is another point. Most of the Model S bought in the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland (plus from all the other countries) and Norway will drive on the German Autobahn quite frequently. A dense SC coverage in Germany is a big plus for those markets! Borders here are quite open these days....
  • Jun 11, 2014
    yngwie_2012
    You guys have to be patient b4 seeing more Teslas on the autobahns. Its like tryin to sell cheese in Switzerland or France.
    Germans also tend to analyse everything thoroughly b4 they can accept it. I think with more superchargers to come the sales numbers of model s will go up significantly. One big reason is Germans love free charging supplied by Tesla since the gas prices here are extremly high.
  • Jun 11, 2014
    kenliles
    I see you're point and it's valid; but the ICE machine was started in the US and more engrained here than anywhere in the world. If we can do it, anybody can. We're sell more trucks than cheese over here :)
    Now if we were selling Beer, that might prove difficult :) (just messin' with ya)
  • Jun 11, 2014
    dirkhh
    Instead of trying to rehash the same arguments here, please take a look at Europeanizing needed for the Model S
    I strongly disagree that (regarding sales in Germany) "with more superchargers to come the sales numbers of model s will go up significantly". There's a lot more work to be done to make the Model S attractive to more high end German buyers.
    Yes, the investment in super chargers makes sense as Germany is at the heart of Europe and many important transit routes cross through Germany.
    But even if Tesla opens a store in every city with more than 50k people, that still doesn't mean that they will see thousands of cars sold.
    So yes, 32no, I am telling you that Elon is overly optimistic when it comes to the German market and that he will continue to be disappointed by the numbers he'll get from Germany.
    And all the people here who keep talking about the "soon to come massive upswing in sales in Germany" (my words, trying to characterize a sentiment) have yet to show any data that they are right - whereas I and several others have shown plenty of data to indicate that Germany will be a very tough market.
  • Jun 11, 2014
    RobStark
    Many a German will tell you the ICE machine was started by Mercedes Benz and no less ingrained in Germany than the US.

    How quickly did American drivers switch from Cadillac and Lincoln to Mercedes and BMW?

    Relative to early Tesla projections over performance in China will more than make-up for under performance in Germany.
  • Jun 11, 2014
    dirkhh
    Let's look at some data, comparing EU countries, their GDP and their Model S sales:
    CountryNorwayNetherlandsGermanySwitzerlandBelgiumDenmarkAustriaFranceSweden
    Model S sold458415215483623392381059595
    GDP Billion USD51680135906465073244182739552
    cars per $B GDP8.881.900.150.560.670.730.250.030.17
    I think that's a reasonable stab at comparing - sales in Europe started at about the same time.

    Tesla sales in China or the US are much harder to compare since they have been around much longer / shorter.

    Just for kicks, let's look just as Q1 sales (which is what I have data for)


    USANorwayNetherlandsGermanySwitzerlandBelgiumDenmarkAustriaFranceSweden
    Q133002056207239133136111395834
    cars per $B GDP0.203.980.260.070.210.270.340.090.020.06
    That's maybe somewhat comparable, but I'd have more caveats here - sales are somewhat established in all markets listed, the pipeline has started to fill (yes, Q2 might look better for Europe, so I'll be happy to update this in a month), but overall the expectation would be that the delivery / demand ratio is reasonably comparable.

    What stands out? Well, Norway clearly is an absolute outlier. The rest seems to be at about a 0.2 cars/$B GDP - Germany is a third of that.

    So this uses available data - I'm sure that there are several grounds on which one could challenge the logic, but given the Belgium, Denmark and Switzerland (with no EV incentives) are trending ahead of the US, I'd say that Germany being quite a bit behind is significant.
  • Jun 11, 2014
    kenliles
    and they'd be largely right to tell me that. Although culturally ingrained on a mass basis, I'm not sure I wouldn't win that one; but arguable I'm sure. We did have an advantage of vast distances making the desire that much greater

    Good point- it took a long time (at least relative to this conversation's topic); which I believe is a point in favor of my position; If we can do it.. so can our German friends

    I agree- In fact, I see a slow German uptake as strategically important - any rapid adoption by Germany puts US, China, UK markets more at risk of under-providing to the detriment of those markets. Let the German market follow and naturally stagger itself further out when production is better equipped.
  • Jun 11, 2014
    schonelucht
    Interesting way to look at sales. Another obvious observation from this table is how much France is lagging. While it doesn't incentivize EVs a lot, it does have very cheap electricity. It ties in with how France is really being neglected by Tesla. No superchargers there for example (which would suit the rest of Europe more than superchargers in Germany over the summer). Despite there being a core of wealthy citizens both along the French Riviera and around Paris who could afford a model S. I've always wondered about that.
  • Jun 12, 2014
    RobStark
    Belgium has been equally neglected by Tesla(no Superchargers) yet sales are far higher than France. Maybe Dutch speaking Flanders has far higher sales than French speaking Wallonia ? Maybe Tesla expected far higher resistance in France or shall we say Chauvinism?

    Interesting that primarily German speaking Switzerland has far higher sales per than Germany. Even German speaking Austria has far higher sales per than Germany. Could it be that consumers in these smaller countries are not as attached to the national brand? Speed limits in Austria are 81 mph and in Switzerland 75 mph. But even less autobahn capable BMW i3 is doing better in Germany than Model S.
  • Jun 12, 2014
    Alfred
    Indeed, Switzerland is often used as a test market as there is no local car industry. Otherwise the explanation is simple: Representation is currently in the center of Zurich and their service center is in nearby Winterthur. Basel has just been opened recently and Western Switzerland will follow soon. Remember also that deliveries only started in September last. Keep in mind that the Model S is a very large car on our roads and parking spots. Sales will therefore be constrained to this large car market, where it does very well so far.

    We are a long way from steady-state marketing. Until a denser network of service points is up and running you will not see sales moving ahead in the western and southern parts of Switzerland or for that matter in Germany. No one is keen on driving hundreds of km on congested motorways just to have the car serviced. A frequent question I get is: And where do I have to go for servicing?
  • Jun 12, 2014
    SebastianR
    Careful with the i3 Numbers: they include dealer registrations to my knowledge. How many? No idea. And we should be careful not to make that an excuse for weak Tesla performance.

    I think the attachment to national brands is one key element of the problem. The other is the way company cars are handled: typically if you are entitled to a company car, you go to one of the outsourced dealers who will have a range of options from Audi, BMW to Mercedes and Porsche. If you don't get a foot into that door, forget that market segment in Germany: most 5-Series BMW, E-Class Mercedes and A6 Audi are company cars that are not bought individually but through a long term agreement with the company you work at.
  • Jun 12, 2014
    Fast Laner
    the i3 Numbers do include dealer registrations.

    The company orders these cars to the wishes of the upper and middle management and let's them drive these company cars, services and fuels them and pays the taxes on these cars, decreases the company's revenue by the money spent and thus saves taxes.
  • Jun 12, 2014
    Auzie
    Similar situation in Australia. Often there are restrictions on employees regarding choosing a car for lease. Employees can choose from a list of approved models. The market for "company cars" is significant.

    On the other side, businesses with significant fleets (say hundreds and thousands of company cars) are sensitive to fuel costs. These high fuel consumption volumes and costs are often targeted by business's sustainability strategy. That may be Tesla's opportunity to enter this space.
  • Jun 12, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    The answer: Tesla Rangers come to you. I try to schedule service when I'm off on business travel. Tesla picks up the car, does the needful, and returns it. The only thing I see is that I have a freshly washed car on my return.
  • Jun 12, 2014
    Auzie
    Sorry for being ot, but how often is the service and what is serviced?
  • Jun 13, 2014
    VolkerP
    all answered here: Tesla Service | Tesla Motors
  • Jun 13, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    Some figures were posted at the Norwegian EV forum. 202 so far this month, 113 in the past three days; so we're definitely starting to see movement. If we assume 35 registered each weekday until the end of the month, we're looking at a total of 587. If assume the rate increases to 100 per day for the last 10 days of June, we're looking at 1377. So, anything is possible.
  • Jun 13, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    In addition to the scheduled service noted above, there are also a few times a year I have them do something. At a minimum, they swap the winter/summer wheels (for free, because I bought both sets from Tesla). My early-VIN car had an issue with the door handles and a stress-fractured windscreen. I've never paid Tesla for any service, although I did buy the 8-year ranger service owing to my distance from the service center (100 to 170 miles, depending on the season).
  • Jun 13, 2014
    Auzie
    Thanks Robert and VolkerP.

    It seems to me that replacing brake pads, windshield vipers and wheels swap could be done by any car service center. Door handles and windscreen could be warranty issues. Not sure what is Tesla policy regarding non Tesla car service centers working on Tesla cars.
  • Jun 14, 2014
    Alfred
    To Robert: This new model of Service is not trusted. It is not the regular service that is the issue. When will he come? Next week perhaps, some time? A new concept has to prove itself before it is accepted.
  • Jun 14, 2014
    pz1975
    I can only speak for my own personal experience but I have never seen a company with better customer service skills than Tesla. I've had to use the Ranger service 3 times since buying my Model S in September and each time they have surpassed my expectations in terms of timing and effort to make things as convenient as possible for me. None of my issues have been major (sunroof rattle, parking sensor pushed in, install the battery shield), but a Ranger has come to either fix it where I am (home or work) or take my car in and leave me a loaner within 2 days. Both time s I had a loaner they were back within 48 hours with my car. They also never try to sell you more service than what your car needs like every other car manufacturer's dealer service does.

    One of my biggest hopes for Tesla is that they maintain this amazing customer service as they grow bigger.
  • Jun 14, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    Not trusted by whom? Read the rest of these forums; there isn't an active thread complaining about poor Ranger service. That's for a good reason: the system works, and works well. You're right, trust has to be earned. But it's fairly clear from the lack of systematic complaints that the experience of 25,000 owners with Tesla's service & rangers has been positive--not without some growing pains, but these seem mostly to relate to the hard-to-get loaners.

    You say it's not "regular service" that's the problem, so are suggesting that you think it's emergency service that will be problematic? I've only had one experience here, and it was amazingly good. My (early-VIN) inverter just stopped working; the car messaged me, and I pulled safely over. I called Tesla, they sent a flatbed truck promptly, and we all went off to the Service Center. There, I was handed the keys to a loaner Model S, and the following day my car was back in my driveway, with the loaner returned.

    I'm sure not every interaction with Tesla service will be this amazingly good, but so far, so good.
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