Apr 22, 2013
kenliles yeah- we need a better sarcasm moticon-�
Apr 24, 2013
cwerdna Yep. Ggr needs to keep in mind that if he exercises, he gives up whatever extrinsic value is left.
Agree on the last statement. Unless ggr has a MASSIVE position in TSLA calls, I highly doubt that a few hundred (or even a few thousand) shares here and there of buying will move the stock much, if at all.
Agree!
Do you really want to wait thru the earnings event holding onto those calls? What if TSLA's stock collapses due to the earnings call?�
Apr 24, 2013
DonPedro I think every indication is that earnings will exceed expectations (see other thread in this forum). Furthermore, I think it is realistic to believe that many shorts are trying to hold past the earnings as a "last chance" to cover at a better price. The most likely scenario for a short squeeze seems to be positive earnings that pushes the price upwards, combined with those shorts finally giving up. If the projections on this forum are ballpark right, then the earnings call has much more upside than downside.
I don't think it is an unreasonable strategy for anyone with a long position to hold through the earnings.�
Apr 24, 2013
luvb2b more shares available to short today than any other day in the past, confirms what i was seeing during the day, that is some short covering taking place.
24-Apr-13 -46.86% <--- not finalized
23-Apr-13 -47.73%
22-Apr-13 -47.73%
21-Apr-13 -47.20%
20-Apr-13 -47.20%
19-Apr-13 -42.60%
18-Apr-13 -37.34%
17-Apr-13 -37.59%
16-Apr-13 -36.66%
15-Apr-13 -37.34%
14-Apr-13 -38.72%
13-Apr-13 -38.72%
12-Apr-13 -38.78%
11-Apr-13 -38.97%
10-Apr-13 -44.23%
9-Apr-13 -49.97%
8-Apr-13 -56.28%
7-Apr-13 -57.34%
6-Apr-13 -57.34%
5-Apr-13 -60.92%
4-Apr-13 -75.23%
3-Apr-13 -82.24%
2-Apr-13 -82.25%
1-Apr-13 -83.00%
31-Mar-13 -84.45%
30-Mar-13 -84.45%
29-Mar-13 -84.45%
28-Mar-13 -82.66%
27-Mar-13 -77.29%
26-Mar-13 -85.35%
25-Mar-13 -75.84%
24-Mar-13 -60.69%
23-Mar-13 -60.69%
22-Mar-13 -59.51%
21-Mar-13 -54.77%
20-Mar-13 -49.85%
19-Mar-13 -49.04%
18-Mar-13 -44.88%
17-Mar-13 -43.94%
- - - Updated - - -
i resemble that remark!�
Apr 24, 2013
PureAmps Latest Short Interest Data
Latest short interest data as of 4/15 is now available. I would not call this a significant change, though days to cover is down significantly due to higher trading volumes.
�
Apr 24, 2013
DonPedro Surprisingly high (short interest, not short ratio). I have a sense this may have gone somewhat down since 4/15, but probably still very significant.�
Apr 24, 2013
ntam How come the average daily volume is over 4 million shares? In finance.yahoo.com, the average daily volume for Tesla is only 2.6 million shares.�
Apr 24, 2013
luvb2b wow that is truly shocking. 44 million shares traded from mar 28-april 15... and yet only 600,000 shares got covered? these shorts are stubborn folk.
unbelievable. i guess there's still a lot of pain to come. thanks for posting, this really helps explain why the cost of shorting is still near 50%.�
Apr 24, 2013
szero Is it possible that these could be new shorts from maybe $50?�
Apr 24, 2013
avatar Heres hoping for a spike to $200. Cheers ! *clink*�
Apr 24, 2013
adiggs As a very long, wouldn't new shorts piling in just be delicious? Of course, I could be wrong in that LONG position, but I'm thinking more shorts the better! heh�
Apr 24, 2013
FredTMC Thats my thinking as well. The new shorts think the stock looks "toppy" at 50 and hope for a correction.�
Apr 24, 2013
luvb2b not possible that it is new shorts over $50.
the last short interest report date was april 15th and the one before was march 28. the stock had not traded above even $47 during that time period.
many of the shorts could likely afford to try to wait out the stock spiking higher except for that little headache that started this thread: the shorts have to pay 5-10c per day for the privilege of staying short. man that really starts to add up, makes it almost impossible to make money if holding the position long enough.�
Apr 24, 2013
szero AHH. how could i forget that.....very insightful. I got out yesteday just in time at 52. Wanted to wait till this report came out before buying in. looks like we have plenty of ammo left!!
- - - Updated - - -
So from the 15th - Today, Sum of volume = Roughly 26Mil. That gives the shorts the potential to reclaim that many shares back....
Luvb2b, your latest reports also shows about 47% cost to borrow shares as of today's date..? So still good reasons to believe that anyone whose still holding onto shares should be happy! As long as the good news keep coming and we're staying above $50...the share prices will/should continue to rise. Yesterday's AP Hack w/ the shooting star pattern and profit takers probably scared people away. lol tsla will recover tomorrow...
-----Luvb2b Reference---
24-Apr-13 -46.86% <--- not finalized
23-Apr-13 -47.73%
22-Apr-13 -47.73%
21-Apr-13 -47.20%
20-Apr-13 -47.20%
19-Apr-13 -42.60%
18-Apr-13 -37.34%
17-Apr-13 -37.59%
16-Apr-13 -36.66%
15-Apr-13 -37.34%
14-Apr-13 -38.72%
13-Apr-13 -38.72%
12-Apr-13 -38.78%
11-Apr-13 -38.97%
10-Apr-13 -44.23%
9-Apr-13 -49.97%
8-Apr-13 -56.28%
7-Apr-13 -57.34%
6-Apr-13 -57.34%
5-Apr-13 -60.92%
4-Apr-13 -75.23%
3-Apr-13 -82.24%
2-Apr-13 -82.25%
1-Apr-13 -83.00%
31-Mar-13 -84.45%
30-Mar-13 -84.45%
29-Mar-13 -84.45%
28-Mar-13 -82.66%
27-Mar-13 -77.29%
26-Mar-13 -85.35%
25-Mar-13 -75.84%
24-Mar-13 -60.69%
23-Mar-13 -60.69%
22-Mar-13 -59.51%
21-Mar-13 -54.77%
20-Mar-13 -49.85%
19-Mar-13 -49.04%
18-Mar-13 -44.88%
17-Mar-13 -43.94%�
Apr 24, 2013
luvb2b correct cost to borrow is 47%.
if you guys want to see what it looks like when a short is desperately trying to hang in there, check out all the april 23 posts from this site, which had been dead since november 1.
BOYCOTT TESLA: The Hummer of the 1%. The car company of crooks | An Online Newspaper About Tesla Motors
hahahahaa :biggrin: i mentioned somewhere that we should expect the shorts to create some news. they are trying, really trying!!
they must feel like this guy, looking for a rescue boat.
Naked Fisherman was Rescued from Shark-infested Ocean in Australia - YouTube�
Apr 24, 2013
cwerdna I only glanced thru it but that is hilarious. I guess that guy either has a short position or has an axe grind against Tesla, Musk, etc. or both. Haters will be haters just like there's an incredible amount of anti-EV (and anti-hybrid) gibberish out there.
There's one guy in a LinkedIn EV group I'm in who seems to almost always be a Debbie Downer re: Tesla.�
Apr 24, 2013
kenliles That link is hilarious- actually I've been surprised at the lack of effort lately. Expecting some real nasty rumors when it gets hot�
Apr 24, 2013
luvb2b pretty sure he's short based on the date. a flurry of activity as tesla crossed $50. hhahahahaaaa :biggrin:�
Apr 25, 2013
luvb2b another day with no shares available to borrow at multiple lenders. the only sellers now are the ones who own the stock.�
Apr 26, 2013
cwerdna I see. I don't know as I haven't been following (and frankly don't care much). As of this writing, I have "no skin in the game" in TSLA in any shape or form.
I don't follow TSLA much at all but I've been following other stocks long enough to learn that even if a company exceeds expectations, their stock can get punished afterward because it didn't exceed by enough, didn't exceed whisper numbers, the future outlook isn't good, margin compression, etc. Sometimes (but not always), if a company doesn't meet expectations, the stock is punished.
On the other hand, sometimes I've seen companies fall short of expectations (sometimes WAY short), yet the stock jumps. Go figure!�
Apr 26, 2013
GenIIIBuyer Finally joining this lending party. Just lent my shares out at 49.5%!!�
Apr 26, 2013
luvb2b seeing hardly any shares available to borrow again this morning. the borrowing charges are climbing again. the prior post where an investor said they lent out shares at 49.5% today is corroborated by the data.
one other interesting thing is that the cost to borrow dropped sharply from march 28th to april 15th, as total short shares declined by about 600,000 shares. since april 15th the borrowing charges are climbing again, indicating that perhaps there are more shorts? not sure how tight the correlation is between the borrowing charges and the total short shares, but something to watch.
the last interesting item is to understand the daily borrow charge is based on the closing price. so a 49% charge with the stock at $52 is the same as a 69% charge with the stock at $37. either way, i think the operative word here is "ouch!"
26-Apr-13 -49.36% <--- not finalized
25-Apr-13 -48.73%
24-Apr-13 -47.42%
23-Apr-13 -47.73%
22-Apr-13 -47.73%
21-Apr-13 -47.20%
20-Apr-13 -47.20%
19-Apr-13 -42.60%
18-Apr-13 -37.34%
17-Apr-13 -37.59%
16-Apr-13 -36.66%
15-Apr-13 -37.34%
14-Apr-13 -38.72%
13-Apr-13 -38.72%
12-Apr-13 -38.78%
11-Apr-13 -38.97%
10-Apr-13 -44.23%
9-Apr-13 -49.97%
8-Apr-13 -56.28%
7-Apr-13 -57.34%
6-Apr-13 -57.34%
5-Apr-13 -60.92%
4-Apr-13 -75.23%
3-Apr-13 -82.24%
2-Apr-13 -82.25%
1-Apr-13 -83.00%
31-Mar-13 -84.45%
30-Mar-13 -84.45%
29-Mar-13 -84.45%
28-Mar-13 -82.66%
27-Mar-13 -77.29%
26-Mar-13 -85.35%
25-Mar-13 -75.84%
24-Mar-13 -60.69%
23-Mar-13 -60.69%
22-Mar-13 -59.51%
21-Mar-13 -54.77%
20-Mar-13 -49.85%
19-Mar-13 -49.04%
18-Mar-13 -44.88%
17-Mar-13 -43.94%�
Apr 26, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache How much of that are you really getting net in your account? Who is your broker?�
Apr 26, 2013
DonPedro @luvb2b: Stormy weather over in Shortville indeed. I would love to see someone put a song with that title out on youtube, complete with cheesy lyrics, Model S cars and depressed shorters.
�
Apr 26, 2013
luvb2b looks like the cost of shorting is over 50% going into the weekend. i'll try to post an update sunday or monday.�
Apr 26, 2013
DonPedro What boggles my mind is the decline at the end of the day. Would have thought that there would be a tendency toward a little upturn there as at least some shorts covered ahead of the weekend. Maybe there is an interesting effect right now of holding on to shorted positions, as you do not know if you would be able to reopen them again any time soon.�
Apr 26, 2013
luvb2b the stock is up 50% in five weeks. it should go down a bit sometime.�
Apr 26, 2013
kenliles Precisely , you can thank the shorts for everything above the $40-$45 range IMHO�
Apr 26, 2013
mulder1231 I think the strategy announcement today really requires some time for people to absorb and figure out what it means for Tesla's outlook and future. Don't know if the timing of the announcement (on a Friday) was deliberate, but it leaves the weekend for shorts and longs to figure out their next moves.
Anything could happen on Monday.�
Apr 26, 2013
blakegallagher someone in a large short position might have sold some shares at market close to lower their cost of borrowed shares over the weekend. Purely speculative. Not sure if there was a large sell at the end of the day as I was only able to monitor off in on during work today on my cell phone.
Would love for luvb2b or someone else of knowledge to weigh in on if this would have been feasible.�
Apr 27, 2013
luvb2b nah. it is a fun exercise to work the numbers. even a short with a million share position saves less than $1000 in daily borrow charges for moving the stock 50c. not worth it.�
Apr 27, 2013
Norbert While the borrow charges are a lot over a whole year, they are currently about 7 cents per day per share. So if you intend to short the stock for a few days, expecting it to drop quite a bit, it is not that much compared to the volatility of TSLA.�
Apr 27, 2013
luvb2b looks like it's going to be even more expensive, round it up to 8c now. :wink:
it sucks when the rate goes up over the weekend, as there's no way to avoid paying the higher cost. :biggrin:
28-Apr-13 -53.86% ** assuming sunday's rate will be same as saturday's.
27-Apr-13 -53.86%
26-Apr-13 -51.61%
25-Apr-13 -48.73%
24-Apr-13 -47.42%
23-Apr-13 -47.73%
22-Apr-13 -47.73%
21-Apr-13 -47.20%
20-Apr-13 -47.20%
19-Apr-13 -42.60%
18-Apr-13 -37.34%
17-Apr-13 -37.59%
16-Apr-13 -36.66%
15-Apr-13 -37.34%
14-Apr-13 -38.72%
13-Apr-13 -38.72%
12-Apr-13 -38.78%
11-Apr-13 -38.97%
10-Apr-13 -44.23%
9-Apr-13 -49.97%
8-Apr-13 -56.28%
7-Apr-13 -57.34%
6-Apr-13 -57.34%
5-Apr-13 -60.92%
4-Apr-13 -75.23%
3-Apr-13 -82.24%
2-Apr-13 -82.25%
1-Apr-13 -83.00%
31-Mar-13 -84.45%
30-Mar-13 -84.45%
29-Mar-13 -84.45%
28-Mar-13 -82.66%
27-Mar-13 -77.29%
26-Mar-13 -85.35%
25-Mar-13 -75.84%
24-Mar-13 -60.69%
23-Mar-13 -60.69%
22-Mar-13 -59.51%
21-Mar-13 -54.77%
20-Mar-13 -49.85%
19-Mar-13 -49.04%
18-Mar-13 -44.88%
17-Mar-13 -43.94%�
Apr 27, 2013
blakegallagher
Thanks that gives me a better idea on the numbers of it. I bet this recent drive up in price is very annoying indeed�
Apr 29, 2013
DonPedro Since the stock left $27 half a year ago, the average short interest has been approx. 29 million shares. That means that at today's closing price of $55, the shorts have accumulated trading losses of approx. $812 million. If we add an average lending rate of 40% and guess that the average share price over the period has been $35, this adds another ~$185 million to the pain, for a grand total of close to $1bn. I believe this happens to be not far from the total equity invested in the company by shareholders.
Would $1bn of losses count as a "tsunami of hurt"? I would assume so. Stormy weather over at Shortville indeed.�
Apr 29, 2013
luvb2b wow excellent observation.
today the cost of borrowing shares seems to still be over 50%, but there are a ton of shares available at multiple lenders. guessing that some shorts must have finally capitulated.�
Apr 29, 2013
avatar Luv - do you know how many shares are still short? Sounds like some surrendered but most are still around. Which means more upward push on the price�
Apr 29, 2013
raymond In other words: positive investors in Tesla have made an additional $1bn, strengthening their positive feelings towards Tesla.�
Apr 29, 2013
kenliles That's what I was thinking. It's good to be on the beneficial side of that loss�
Apr 29, 2013
luvb2b i'd guess probably around 29 million, but that's just a guess. next official report is in about 10-11 days.�
Apr 29, 2013
Causalien I was thinking about this on the bus. If they didn't pull the weird option trade to keep rolling their short higher, they would've suffered a margin call and be done with it at around $40. The fact that they are rolling it up means that they are actually suffering a bigger loss. Which I think is happening.�
Apr 30, 2013
luvb2b the stooges option trade doesn't help avoid losses, only helps avoid borrowing charges. the short doesn't get rolled up in price, it just rolls from short stock to short calls and back again.�
May 2, 2013
GenIIIBuyer Still not many shares available to borrow out there. The going borrow/lend rate is around 45%.�
May 2, 2013
luvb2b lots of shares available to borrow today
02-May-13 -46.10%
01-May-13 -48.23%
30-Apr-13 -50.73%
29-Apr-13 -52.80%
28-Apr-13 -53.86%
27-Apr-13 -53.86%
26-Apr-13 -51.61%
25-Apr-13 -48.73%
24-Apr-13 -47.42%
23-Apr-13 -47.73%
22-Apr-13 -47.73%
21-Apr-13 -47.20%
20-Apr-13 -47.20%
19-Apr-13 -42.60%
18-Apr-13 -37.34%
17-Apr-13 -37.59%
16-Apr-13 -36.66%
15-Apr-13 -37.34%
14-Apr-13 -38.72%
13-Apr-13 -38.72%
12-Apr-13 -38.78%
11-Apr-13 -38.97%
10-Apr-13 -44.23%
9-Apr-13 -49.97%
8-Apr-13 -56.28%
7-Apr-13 -57.34%
6-Apr-13 -57.34%
5-Apr-13 -60.92%
4-Apr-13 -75.23%
3-Apr-13 -82.24%
2-Apr-13 -82.25%
1-Apr-13 -83.00%
31-Mar-13 -84.45%
30-Mar-13 -84.45%
29-Mar-13 -84.45%
28-Mar-13 -82.66%
27-Mar-13 -77.29%
26-Mar-13 -85.35%
25-Mar-13 -75.84%
24-Mar-13 -60.69%
23-Mar-13 -60.69%
22-Mar-13 -59.51%
21-Mar-13 -54.77%
20-Mar-13 -49.85%
19-Mar-13 -49.04%
18-Mar-13 -44.88%
17-Mar-13 -43.94%�
May 4, 2013
Norbert Article at SeekingAlpha about the high cost of shorting:
Tesla: The High Cost Of Shorting Increases Chances Of Short Covering - Seeking Alpha
Maybe a short thinks: 'They made it that far, but that only increases the chances of them failing really soon now' .... or they are even more invested in oil and don't care about the cost.�
May 4, 2013
ModelS8794 The short thesis is simply that demand for Model S is not sufficient to drive sustained production levels at a rate Tesla will be able to maintain positive operating margins with, once current "excess" demand from early adopters is met. From there, various levels of bearishness will lead to conclusions about the viability of the company, or likelihood of dilutive equity raises, or just simply comparing some very low level of sustained profitability against the current valuation.
At its heart is an assumption about global consumer's willingness/interest in adopting EV technology. Among the short sellers I know/have met/have read, 100% of them have not driven the car, and/or are fixated on the topic of range and long distance recharging above all else.�
May 5, 2013
Nixx This.
im bullish and long on telsa, but demand generation and the state of the economy are my main concerns. I find it somewhat reassuring that tesla has not started a major advertising blitz. If they had, it would definitely be bearish.
I also believe dilution is inevitable to start model x (unless it can be built on the same line?), but one can hope that they will make enough money in the next 12 months that the dilution is minimal. Either way, I'll be buying on an offering as long as it is for cap ex spending.�
May 5, 2013
cwerdna I have no positions in any way on TSLA but I'd say the above are all legitimate concerns. Given the high starting price of the Model S (even higher now that the 40 kwh option has been axed as a choice), what will the demand picture look like once the backlog has died down?
They could make it up with growth elsewhere, but in places like Europe, that's going to be limited and to me will tail off, given the dire economic situation there (BBC News - Eurozone unemployment at record high as inflation drops) of 12.1% unemployment in the Eurozone. Economies are actually contracting in many countries there unlike the meager growth that we have here in the US. As mentioned in that article "Greece and Spain recorded the highest unemployment rates in the eurozone, at 27.2% and 26.7%".
China became the world's largest auto market but I'm unclear of TSLA's plans there. AFAIK, importing cars into that country == VERY expensive car. Building them there apparently (if I'm not mistaken), requirements of joint ventures w/Chinese automakers. I don't think TSLA would want to do that. And, they have their own DC fast charge standard, it's not CHAdeMO nor J1772 CCS.
Yep, this is very true. Just look at the plug-in vehicle sales figures at Hybrid Market Dashboard - HybridCars.com and compare them to the rest of the auto market (e.g. By the Numbers News - Autoblog and April 2013 U.S. Passenger Car Sales Rankings - Top 149 Best-Selling Cars In America - Every Car Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR).
The range and long distance recharging is obviously not much of an issue for the Model S, but it's too expensive/out of reach or risky for many, leaving folks w/either EVs w/much less range and/or PHEVs.
I'm sure if you talk to many who don't follow EVs or aren't EV enthusiasts, there's a lot of anti-EV talk, FUD, and misinformation floating around amongst them. The folks who aren't into EVs make up a vast majority of auto buyers/people.�
May 6, 2013
gregincal I agree this is the direction the short people are coming from, but it is fundamentally flawed. It starts by looking at EV's as a whole and saying they are lacking except for the Model S, and then discounts the Model S because most people can't afford it. Sure most people can't afford it, but that's besides the point. The question is whether the Model S is an appealing car for people who can afford it, and I'd say the answer is a definite yes. The fact that many people aren't even considering it currently because they aren't aware how nice a car it is to drive just shows how big an untapped market there is for it.�
May 7, 2013
luvb2b cost to short still over 40%, a couple lenders have shares but locates still kinda tight.
07-May-13 -42.11%
06-May-13 -43.48%
05-May-13 -44.98%
04-May-13 -44.98%
03-May-13 -45.41%
02-May-13 -46.10%
01-May-13 -48.23%
30-Apr-13 -50.73%
29-Apr-13 -52.80%
28-Apr-13 -53.86%
27-Apr-13 -53.86%
26-Apr-13 -51.61%
25-Apr-13 -48.73%
24-Apr-13 -47.42%
23-Apr-13 -47.73%
22-Apr-13 -47.73%
21-Apr-13 -47.20%
20-Apr-13 -47.20%
19-Apr-13 -42.60%
18-Apr-13 -37.34%
17-Apr-13 -37.59%
16-Apr-13 -36.66%
15-Apr-13 -37.34%
14-Apr-13 -38.72%
13-Apr-13 -38.72%
12-Apr-13 -38.78%
11-Apr-13 -38.97%
10-Apr-13 -44.23%
9-Apr-13 -49.97%
8-Apr-13 -56.28%
7-Apr-13 -57.34%
6-Apr-13 -57.34%
5-Apr-13 -60.92%
4-Apr-13 -75.23%
3-Apr-13 -82.24%
2-Apr-13 -82.25%
1-Apr-13 -83.00%
31-Mar-13 -84.45%
30-Mar-13 -84.45%
29-Mar-13 -84.45%
28-Mar-13 -82.66%
27-Mar-13 -77.29%
26-Mar-13 -85.35%
25-Mar-13 -75.84%
24-Mar-13 -60.69%
23-Mar-13 -60.69%
22-Mar-13 -59.51%
21-Mar-13 -54.77%
20-Mar-13 -49.85%
19-Mar-13 -49.04%
18-Mar-13 -44.88%
17-Mar-13 -43.94%�
May 7, 2013
DonPedro Very interesting dynamic. It seems clear that shorts are getting squeezed, and it is easy to assume (although with no data to back it up), that short positions are changing hands. At the same time it seems like a short squeeze is going on.
I would assume that a short squeeze combined with a sustained short interest is a pretty bullish development? After all, the shorts have to buy the stock eventually, so one could think of them as "delayed demand" for the stock. And as long as short interest stays close to max, there is no threat of a massive bear attack to push the stock price down.�
May 7, 2013
luvb2b it's amazing isn't it? the cost to borrow shares is still where it was at when i started this thread. and that was about 25 points ago in the stock!�
May 7, 2013
DonPedro 1 dash of stubborness, 1 dash of masochism and 2 dashes of "head in the sand" = TSLA shorting behaviour (or TSS - Tesla Shorting Syndrome)�
May 7, 2013
kenliles Yeah those data points align with observations on the stock behavior. It's not acting like a substantial short squeeze. Clearly some shorts are clearing and adding upward pressure from about $45, but it's not behaving as a short squeeze as of yet, but more like a supply of long buying with brief short clearing. Just my anecdotal opinion after living through a few of these. I think we might see a pronounced squeeze at some point, but relative to clearing the volume of shorts, I'm more of the opinion it will be a constant put under the sell offs over the next year as EV survival makes itself more apparent�
May 7, 2013
DonPedro Actually, from a long term investor's point of view, that is better than a short squeeze. Having a good market cap with maxed out short interest must be just about the most ideal financial scenario for a company like this, that may need to go to the stock market at some stage to raise capital for growth.�
May 7, 2013
kenliles Agree completely, much better than a dramatic squeeze that long term investors simply have to ride up and back down. And as you say doesn't help Cap raises. Excellent point�
May 7, 2013
adiggs I wonder if the dynamic we're seeing is a combination of "old" shorts starting to be force to cover (providing buying volume and creating upward pressure on the stock), while we're seeing a new crop of shorts entering the market. After all, if TSLA was a good short at $30, then it's gotta be an outstanding short at $60! Is there a data source that would tell us the degree of turnover within the overall short position? Is the average age decreasing or flat (indicating turnover with new shorts taking old shorts positions), or is it aging / increasing (indicative of stubbornness). Is there data with that granularity?�
May 7, 2013
luvb2b the data you're describing doesn't exist to the best of my knowledge.
what you're saying is correct however. there is a degree of rotation of the shorts that take place. at some point what would probably happen is new shorts will just take up all the available shares to borrow and we'll be back at looking at no shares to borrow again. that's when things can get nutty, once there are no shares to borrow then the only ones who can stop a price rise are longs who are willing to sell. and that's also when you see some buy-ins and such happening.
today we're down to around 60,000 shares available at interactive brokers. that number has been as high as 100,000-350,000 in the last week. so for sure you can bet some shorts stepped into the gap this morning even as other shorts were likely forced to cover.
the real key to the whole thing is earnings and guidance. poor earnings or poor guidance and you can forget about worrying about a short squeeze and start worrying about the new longs getting crunched.�
May 7, 2013
gregincal It seems like if we really are seeing new shorts replacing the old ones that there's probably a difference in their goals. The old shorts at 30 were betting the company would go bankrupt soon and the stock would drop to zero. My guess is that we may have some new shorts who are betting this is a bubble in the stock price, but not necessarily that the company is in trouble. If that was the case and the stock had a correction after earnings I imagine they would take their profits and we would finally see a decline in the short interest. That's the only thing that makes sense to me, since I can't believe rational investors could still believe that the company is going bankrupt soon, and with the borrowing rates it doesn't seem like it would make sense to bet for the long run.�
May 7, 2013
mershaw2001 Is the cost to short retroactive? For instance, if you started shorting tesla when it wasn't such a hot short target, and you got in for 1% annually, does your annual fee remain locked in or does it rise up as the next incremental share is shorted.
I want to know if those individuals who shorted early are also feeling the pain, or if it is just the new shorts.
In talking to Fidelity brokerage, they said that the cost if i were to short a stock is not fixed, which suggests to me that the cost would go up as the brokerages raise their annual rate.
Second question: Do large hedge funds that are shorting the stock also pay the annual fee?�
May 8, 2013
cwerdna Yep. Even in some cases (w/other companies), guidance and earnings can be "good" and even beat expectations but by not enough --> stock gets slammed. In some other cases, the stock falls anyway despite everything being good because expectations were "built into the stock price" already.
I haven't participated much in a lot of the threads here but I've noticed overwhelmingly it seems that people are bullish on TSLA here (maybe due to interest in the products and Elon)... And, obviously, they've been right since late March. But it's very easy to get complacent and be in for a rude awakening.
If someone bought at a peak on ~11/26/10 at almost $36, they had to wait until ~3/28/12 to just breakeven... They would've experienced the stock falling to ~$21 - $22 a bunch of times along the way.�
May 8, 2013
hershey101 I thought that NASDAQ was suppose to report short interest today, I don't see it up yet, what happened?
Also, I don't think it matters if we have a high turnover rate in the shorts or not. Old short or new, they are all going to be squeezed so hard tomorrow morning when TSLA opens at $70+ and just keeps on going up.
Amazing conference call, very bullish outlook, and Elon did a great job sounding confident (didn't stumble as much this time). Provided a lot of very good visibility into the future of TSLA�
May 8, 2013
mitch672 It's rumored to come out tommorow (A/O 4/30) how perfect is that?
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com�
May 9, 2013
hershey101 NASDAQ Short interest out:
Short Interest:[TR="class: oddgr"]
Days To Cover:7.9643127,501,901 [/TR]
�
May 9, 2013
avatar Wow! That is still a crazy number of shorts. Tomorrow is going to be very interesting.�
May 9, 2013
DonPedro Given recent volumes, there is just no way to know what short interest is right now.�
May 9, 2013
Causalien That's basically today's volume. Safe to say that they were all forced to cover. If my memory serves. 20% is when your broker margin calls you. Not sure if it's a different number for big players. Which also mean that there weren't a lot of buyers buying at the same time. Otherwise, the squeeze would've been higher. So we got a squeeze, but we haven't converted more owners to the stock. Not surprising seeing how no body is buying stocks nowadays. I am the only one still playing after a decade + of trading around my circle of friends. Everyone else all got discouraged.�
May 9, 2013
Norbert Availability of shorts is still (or again) *very* low. I don't think much has changed there at all, no squeeze. Unless one bunch of shorts was exchanged for another one, but I don't what we saw today was shorts trading amongst themselves, either.�
May 9, 2013
serkol Is that data as of 5/02/2013 6pm? It's the "Due date" from the explanation info:
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=ShortIntPubSch
It looks like the "due date" is the latest date when all FINRA member firms are required to file their reports about their short positions.
So for the May 9th data, the due date was May 2. So this data is at least 7 days old. After today's volume of 28.6M (including pre- and aftermarket) the short interest may be quite different. Do I understand this right?�
May 9, 2013
Norbert Yes and no. The Nasdaq short interest (public) website info is as-of- 4/30/2013, so 9 days old.�
May 10, 2013
luvb2b lots of shares available to borrow today. suprising to see the cost remaining elevated after the big move up we just had.
10-May-13 -40.24%
09-May-13 -39.55%
08-May-13 -39.55%
07-May-13 -41.37%
06-May-13 -43.48%
05-May-13 -44.98%
04-May-13 -44.98%
03-May-13 -45.41%
02-May-13 -46.10%
01-May-13 -48.23%
30-Apr-13 -50.73%
29-Apr-13 -52.80%
28-Apr-13 -53.86%
27-Apr-13 -53.86%
26-Apr-13 -51.61%
25-Apr-13 -48.73%
24-Apr-13 -47.42%
23-Apr-13 -47.73%
22-Apr-13 -47.73%
21-Apr-13 -47.20%
20-Apr-13 -47.20%
19-Apr-13 -42.60%
18-Apr-13 -37.34%
17-Apr-13 -37.59%
16-Apr-13 -36.66%
15-Apr-13 -37.34%
14-Apr-13 -38.72%
13-Apr-13 -38.72%
12-Apr-13 -38.78%
11-Apr-13 -38.97%
10-Apr-13 -44.23%
9-Apr-13 -49.97%
8-Apr-13 -56.28%
7-Apr-13 -57.34%
6-Apr-13 -57.34%
5-Apr-13 -60.92%
4-Apr-13 -75.23%
3-Apr-13 -82.24%
2-Apr-13 -82.25%
1-Apr-13 -83.00%
31-Mar-13 -84.45%
30-Mar-13 -84.45%
29-Mar-13 -84.45%
28-Mar-13 -82.66%
27-Mar-13 -77.29%
26-Mar-13 -85.35%
25-Mar-13 -75.84%
24-Mar-13 -60.69%
23-Mar-13 -60.69%
22-Mar-13 -59.51%
21-Mar-13 -54.77%
20-Mar-13 -49.85%
19-Mar-13 -49.04%
18-Mar-13 -44.88%
17-Mar-13 -43.94%�
May 15, 2013
luvb2b looks like no shares to borrow again today? there were 500,000 earlier this morning now all gone.
costs are coming down indicating shorts have been covering.
15-May-13 -34.13% <--- not finalized yet
14-May-13 -35.69%
13-May-13 -37.47%
12-May-13 -37.70%
11-May-13 -37.70%
10-May-13 -38.97%
09-May-13 -39.55%
08-May-13 -39.55%
07-May-13 -41.37%
06-May-13 -43.48%
05-May-13 -44.98%
04-May-13 -44.98%
03-May-13 -45.41%
02-May-13 -46.10%
01-May-13 -48.23%
30-Apr-13 -50.73%
29-Apr-13 -52.80%
28-Apr-13 -53.86%
27-Apr-13 -53.86%
26-Apr-13 -51.61%
25-Apr-13 -48.73%
24-Apr-13 -47.42%
23-Apr-13 -47.73%
22-Apr-13 -47.73%
21-Apr-13 -47.20%
20-Apr-13 -47.20%
19-Apr-13 -42.60%
18-Apr-13 -37.34%
17-Apr-13 -37.59%
16-Apr-13 -36.66%
15-Apr-13 -37.34%
14-Apr-13 -38.72%
13-Apr-13 -38.72%
12-Apr-13 -38.78%
11-Apr-13 -38.97%
10-Apr-13 -44.23%
9-Apr-13 -49.97%
8-Apr-13 -56.28%
7-Apr-13 -57.34%
6-Apr-13 -57.34%
5-Apr-13 -60.92%
4-Apr-13 -75.23%
3-Apr-13 -82.24%
2-Apr-13 -82.25%
1-Apr-13 -83.00%
31-Mar-13 -84.45%
30-Mar-13 -84.45%
29-Mar-13 -84.45%
28-Mar-13 -82.66%
27-Mar-13 -77.29%
26-Mar-13 -85.35%
25-Mar-13 -75.84%
24-Mar-13 -60.69%
23-Mar-13 -60.69%
22-Mar-13 -59.51%
21-Mar-13 -54.77%
20-Mar-13 -49.85%
19-Mar-13 -49.04%
18-Mar-13 -44.88%
17-Mar-13 -43.94%�
May 15, 2013
DonPedro The cost of shorting is not a clean indicator of the total short interest, because when investors trade their shares they first have to make them unavailable for shorting. So in a period when bigger part of the float is traded, the total number of shares available for shorting should go down. Or am I missing something?�
May 15, 2013
adiggs luvb2b - is the information about interest rates the shorts are paying reasonably available, as well as # shares available to short? I spent some time today in my Ameritrade account looking around and couldn't find the info.
My interpretation of these interest rates is they may be coming down, but >30% would still be outrageously high by general market standards. Is that a reasonable interpretation?�
May 16, 2013
luvb2b i don't believe this is a two step process. that is, the shares are always available to sell for the investor. if the investor sells his shares, then the short is going to have to borrow shares from someone else. you could read more about it at the schwab website - google 'schwab fully paid share lending program' or something close to that. you are correct that cost of shorting is not a clean indicator for the short interest, but there is generally a positive correlation (higher demand to borrow shares raises the cost to borrow).
- - - Updated - - -
you can find a partial view of shares available for shorting at interactive brokers public site. google 'interactive brokers short list' or similar.
the cost to borrow i don't think is readily available unless you have an account with a firm who will tell you.
> 30% cost to borrow is very high. imagine in tesla it costs almost $30 per year to borrow shares, which means it's about 9-10c per calendar day!�
May 20, 2013
luvb2b from the cost of borrowing it seems like the shorts are getting run out of town (no surprise there!)
19-May-13 -22.63%
18-May-13 -22.63%
17-May-13 -24.44%
16-May-13 -26.56%
15-May-13 -30.27%
14-May-13 -35.69%
13-May-13 -37.47%
12-May-13 -37.70%
11-May-13 -37.70%
10-May-13 -38.97%
09-May-13 -39.55%
08-May-13 -39.55%
07-May-13 -41.37%
06-May-13 -43.48%
05-May-13 -44.98%
04-May-13 -44.98%
03-May-13 -45.41%
02-May-13 -46.10%
01-May-13 -48.23%
30-Apr-13 -50.73%
29-Apr-13 -52.80%
28-Apr-13 -53.86%
27-Apr-13 -53.86%
26-Apr-13 -51.61%
25-Apr-13 -48.73%
24-Apr-13 -47.42%
23-Apr-13 -47.73%
22-Apr-13 -47.73%
21-Apr-13 -47.20%
20-Apr-13 -47.20%
19-Apr-13 -42.60%
18-Apr-13 -37.34%
17-Apr-13 -37.59%
16-Apr-13 -36.66%
15-Apr-13 -37.34%
14-Apr-13 -38.72%
13-Apr-13 -38.72%
12-Apr-13 -38.78%
11-Apr-13 -38.97%
10-Apr-13 -44.23%
9-Apr-13 -49.97%
8-Apr-13 -56.28%
7-Apr-13 -57.34%
6-Apr-13 -57.34%
5-Apr-13 -60.92%
4-Apr-13 -75.23%
3-Apr-13 -82.24%
2-Apr-13 -82.25%
1-Apr-13 -83.00%
31-Mar-13 -84.45%
30-Mar-13 -84.45%
29-Mar-13 -84.45%
28-Mar-13 -82.66%
27-Mar-13 -77.29%
26-Mar-13 -85.35%
25-Mar-13 -75.84%
24-Mar-13 -60.69%
23-Mar-13 -60.69%
22-Mar-13 -59.51%
21-Mar-13 -54.77%
20-Mar-13 -49.85%
19-Mar-13 -49.04%
18-Mar-13 -44.88%
17-Mar-13 -43.94%�
May 20, 2013
smorgasbord As expected, there are new shorters coming in every day. For instance, this article:
Mods: Feel free to move to one of the "nonsense" threads if you think that's best.�
May 20, 2013
kenliles If I had $10B I'd rather own all of Tesla than 18% of Ford; just my personal choice of course�
May 20, 2013
dmckinstry So would I. At the rate other car companies are converting to electric, once the general public recognizes the value of EVs, their percentage of EV production will have little effect on their stock price and market cap.�
May 20, 2013
Citizen-T Yeah, if you look at earnings today then obviously owning 17.8% of Ford is the better value. But the market is concerned with FUTURE earnings. That is a much harder call to make.�
May 20, 2013
Johan With regards to the Ford comparison: In all fairness, it does say something quite extraordinary about Tesla's valuation as of today, especially with all those big boys buying in at $92-ish thus setting the tone...�
May 20, 2013
kenliles gotta agree with that- even with my comment; It's easy to make the currently over-valued argument at these levels; Much harder at $30-$40 a share. But here Tesla will have to do a lot of thing flawlessly again for the next year and half
(Mfg margin goals, no recalls, healthy U,Europe, Asia expansion to a 30k/yr, ModX, GenIII firmly on the boards). And with much less help from the shorts, we're going to return to a slug-it-out period of time this year I'm thinking. OK with me, I'll hold and add to a core stock/LEAPS position will working some other options for the volatility.�
May 29, 2013
luvb2b the cost of shorting has been dropping steadily, now down to under 10%. i think the implication is that quite a lot of shorts from before have covered. the other thing i am noticing is that a lot of really dumb really hot money has been pouring into tesla lately. at the same time a lot of shares that were likely held in strategies where people were hedging with calls and loaning out the shares are becoming much less attractive, as the cost of shorting continues to decline expect those shares to get transferred into the new hot dumb money hands. therefore, i'd say be prepared for volatility.
29-May-13 -9.38%
28-May-13 -10.23%
27-May-13 -11.07%
26-May-13 -11.07%
25-May-13 -11.07%
24-May-13 -12.99%
23-May-13 -16.23%
22-May-13 -18.66%
21-May-13 -20.89%
20-May-13 -22.26%
19-May-13 -22.63%
18-May-13 -22.63%
17-May-13 -24.44%
16-May-13 -26.56%
15-May-13 -30.27%
14-May-13 -35.69%
13-May-13 -37.47%
12-May-13 -37.70%
11-May-13 -37.70%
10-May-13 -38.97%
09-May-13 -39.55%
08-May-13 -39.55%
07-May-13 -41.37%
06-May-13 -43.48%
05-May-13 -44.98%
04-May-13 -44.98%
03-May-13 -45.41%
02-May-13 -46.10%
01-May-13 -48.23%
30-Apr-13 -50.73%
29-Apr-13 -52.80%
28-Apr-13 -53.86%
27-Apr-13 -53.86%
26-Apr-13 -51.61%
25-Apr-13 -48.73%
24-Apr-13 -47.42%
23-Apr-13 -47.73%
22-Apr-13 -47.73%
21-Apr-13 -47.20%
20-Apr-13 -47.20%
19-Apr-13 -42.60%
18-Apr-13 -37.34%
17-Apr-13 -37.59%
16-Apr-13 -36.66%
15-Apr-13 -37.34%
14-Apr-13 -38.72%
13-Apr-13 -38.72%
12-Apr-13 -38.78%
11-Apr-13 -38.97%
10-Apr-13 -44.23%
9-Apr-13 -49.97%
8-Apr-13 -56.28%
7-Apr-13 -57.34%
6-Apr-13 -57.34%
5-Apr-13 -60.92%
4-Apr-13 -75.23%
3-Apr-13 -82.24%
2-Apr-13 -82.25%
1-Apr-13 -83.00%
31-Mar-13 -84.45%
30-Mar-13 -84.45%
29-Mar-13 -84.45%
28-Mar-13 -82.66%
27-Mar-13 -77.29%
26-Mar-13 -85.35%
25-Mar-13 -75.84%
24-Mar-13 -60.69%
23-Mar-13 -60.69%
22-Mar-13 -59.51%
21-Mar-13 -54.77%
20-Mar-13 -49.85%
19-Mar-13 -49.04%
18-Mar-13 -44.88%
17-Mar-13 -43.94%�
May 29, 2013
DonPedro Sounds like more "downside volatility" than "upside volatility" to me. There is a lot of smart money in that is perfectly able to be the marginal seller at the right time...�
May 29, 2013
luvb2b i didn't want to be the one to say "it looks like maybe a good time to sell" on a tesla motors forum, but you understood my meaning quite well i think.�
May 29, 2013
Causalien It explains also why the put call skew is gone. If anything, it just means that bullish TSLA strategies are no longer as safe as before and neutral strategies should be used.... However that 1.0 + volatility.... Can that actually get higher?�
Jun 3, 2013
ShortSlaver I've heard that TSLA is about 28.5% short as of today.�
Jun 3, 2013
toastypasta E*Trade says 28.95% so must be the right range�
Jun 3, 2013
ShortSlaver Which means with just enough upward pressure we have short squeeze 2.0 or 3.0 or w/e we are in now...
That's an amazing number from where we were last week and explains a lot of the over the top selling pressure. I'm guessing plenty of this is naked short too.�
Jun 3, 2013
mitch672 Haters going to keep Hating, I wonder how many squeezes they'll need to endure before they go find the next shiny object�
Jun 4, 2013
SuryaDham The borrow rate at IB is down to 3,7% (from over 80% some weeks ago). It's the lowest number in months.
So I'm not sure how 28.5% of float can still be short...
Does anyone have a feeling how those two numbers would go together?�
Jun 4, 2013
kenliles That's about right. That would put us at about 21M short shares (28.5%). That's the lowest for Tesla I can ever remember. Keep in mind this is % of float. TSLA float to outstanding ratio is very low due to high insider ownership. At this short level we are done with all short squeeze now. The best you can hope for a little short covering rally from time to time. Otherwise don't look to them for any appreciative help IMO. We squeezed the blood from that turnip.�
Jun 5, 2013
luvb2b wow we are way down here on the cost of shorting. the advantage of doing options conversions is now gone, but oh my goodness was that ever a profitable endeavor since mid march!
05-Jun-13 -3.10
04-Jun-13 -3.41%
03-Jun-13 -4.29%
02-Jun-13 -4.92%
01-Jun-13 -4.92%
31-May-13 -5.61%
30-May-13 -6.79%
29-May-13 -8.21%
28-May-13 -10.23%
27-May-13 -11.07%
26-May-13 -11.07%
25-May-13 -11.07%
24-May-13 -12.99%
23-May-13 -16.23%
22-May-13 -18.66%
21-May-13 -20.89%
20-May-13 -22.26%
19-May-13 -22.63%
18-May-13 -22.63%
17-May-13 -24.44%
16-May-13 -26.56%
15-May-13 -30.27%
14-May-13 -35.69%
13-May-13 -37.47%
12-May-13 -37.70%
11-May-13 -37.70%
10-May-13 -38.97%
09-May-13 -39.55%
08-May-13 -39.55%
07-May-13 -41.37%
06-May-13 -43.48%
05-May-13 -44.98%
04-May-13 -44.98%
03-May-13 -45.41%
02-May-13 -46.10%
01-May-13 -48.23%
30-Apr-13 -50.73%
29-Apr-13 -52.80%
28-Apr-13 -53.86%
27-Apr-13 -53.86%
26-Apr-13 -51.61%
25-Apr-13 -48.73%
24-Apr-13 -47.42%
23-Apr-13 -47.73%
22-Apr-13 -47.73%
21-Apr-13 -47.20%
20-Apr-13 -47.20%
19-Apr-13 -42.60%
18-Apr-13 -37.34%
17-Apr-13 -37.59%
16-Apr-13 -36.66%
15-Apr-13 -37.34%
14-Apr-13 -38.72%
13-Apr-13 -38.72%
12-Apr-13 -38.78%
11-Apr-13 -38.97%
10-Apr-13 -44.23%
9-Apr-13 -49.97%
8-Apr-13 -56.28%
7-Apr-13 -57.34%
6-Apr-13 -57.34%
5-Apr-13 -60.92%
4-Apr-13 -75.23%
3-Apr-13 -82.24%
2-Apr-13 -82.25%
1-Apr-13 -83.00%
31-Mar-13 -84.45%
30-Mar-13 -84.45%
29-Mar-13 -84.45%
28-Mar-13 -82.66%
27-Mar-13 -77.29%
26-Mar-13 -85.35%
25-Mar-13 -75.84%
24-Mar-13 -60.69%
23-Mar-13 -60.69%
22-Mar-13 -59.51%
21-Mar-13 -54.77%
20-Mar-13 -49.85%
19-Mar-13 -49.04%
18-Mar-13 -44.88%
17-Mar-13 -43.94%�
Jun 5, 2013
kenliles - great confirmation;
thanks for posting those up luv�
Jun 5, 2013
MikeC Does the low rate mean that there is low short interest right now?�
Jun 5, 2013
kenliles It's a good indicator of that yes; Doesn't mean all the shorts are gone (likely we still have 20M shares of short); But it means the balance between demand for new short positions and available shares is met (low demand relative to available).
So the 'short' answer to your question is generally yes (punn intended )�
Jun 6, 2013
hcsharp More like we squeezed a flood from a small turnip. Sure was fun!�
Jul 3, 2013
GenIIIBuyer I just checked Interactive Broker's available to borrow is all the way back to just 5,000 shares. (From around 500,000 a couple weeks ago).
Seems like a new wave of smart traders 'calling the top' has arrived. I don't think an uptick in lending rates has arrived yet though?
EDIT-misspelling�
Jul 3, 2013
kenliles thanks - was wondering about this lately�
Jul 3, 2013
sleepyhead I don't think that the days of the short squeeze are over yet. Yes the "Days to Cover" went down from like 30 to 2, but that is only because higher volume is traded on a daily basis. Short ratio is still like 20%, which is extremely high. If Tesla ever has a blowout quarter all of those shorts will run to cover but there will be no sellers of shares; this will result in the mother of all short squeezes.
I think that the short ratio is much more important than days to cover, but I could be wrong.�
Jul 3, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache While there would need to be a blowout quarter to squeeze the shorts, only minor disappointments compared to sky high expectations can end in a major long squeeze. Obviously I do not know which one will be (or where in between), but the risk / reward picture seems upside down compared to the previous quarter.�
Jul 3, 2013
kenliles +1. Agree with Nicu. Expectations are high, current price and valuation are high, shorts are at all time low. It's no crime to be careful and long TSLA at the same time. It's not the time to over leverage.
Or you can fix the upside down conundrum by 1) standing on your head 2) move to a weed legal state Both work for me. I'll stay long through the report but lighter than normal and build position following the inevitable pull back, IMHO. Good luck to all. Long term we are in great shape and have a good 4th!�
Jul 4, 2013
DaveT Gotta agree with you, Sleepyhead.
Short interest as of 6/14/13 (Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com) was 19.929 million shares out of 76.93 million float (TSLA Stock Price Today - Tesla Motors Inc. Stock Quote - WSJ.com).
So 26% of the float is short as of mid-June. That's a lot of upward pressure if earnings beats expectations which I think there's a pretty good chance they will for Q2 and Q3.
But if TSLA misses earnings expectations, look for the stock to get hit very, very bad.�
Jul 20, 2013
DaveT Does anybody have current info on the cost to borrow shares to short?�
Jul 21, 2013
TSLAopt Under 1% still�
Jul 21, 2013
AudubonB Am wondering what the relative costs are, week in and out, to short versus to buy puts. As I noted elsewhere, I saw reference recently to one of the very large hedge funds - Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine - as having one of his largest positions an ungodly number of puts. Something like 1.25 million....and that wasn't dollar value, but actual contracts. Gaack.�
Jul 21, 2013
TSLAopt When you short stock it's possible the shares you borrowed could get called back at anytime (result in a broker buy-in without warning even possibly), so that is a risk shorts have. When buying a put that risk is not a factor, but you are paying a premium vs. shorting the stock, otherwise there would be an arbitrage opportunity for a market maker or HFT that would correct that quickly. One interesting note, is that when there are no shares available to short or perhaps shorting is not allowed temporarily (ie. circuit breaker triggered), one can still buy puts. When you buy puts, the person (usually a market maker) selling you those puts usually will hedge their short puts by shorting the stock so that they are Delta-Neutral (risk free). Market makers i believe have different rules and are allowed to short stocks even when no one else can in order to hedge themselves.
In the example you mention, the person who sold the 1.25 million puts will buy back more and more of their shares (that they presumably shorted at the time of selling the puts per above) as the stock price goes up. For the short put position, as the stock price goes up, the number of shares needed to be short to stay delta-neutral (ie. risk free) on their short put position will decrease (by a factor of whatever the gamma is on those options at that time). this also happens as time decays. Conversely, if the stock tanks, the person who sold the puts will have to short a lot more TSLA stock to remain Delta-Neutral.
i wonder what the strike price and expiry of the 1.25mm put position is? Do you know?�
Jul 21, 2013
AudubonB No, I've not been able to find out more than here (and note it's 1.758mm puts. Crikeys, that's a lot!). From Lone Pine's 1Q 13F:
http://www.streetinsider.com/13Fs/Mandels+Lone+Pine+Capital+Enters+H%26R+Block+(HRB),+CME+(CME),+Valeant+(VRX)%3B+Liquidates+Facebook+(FB)/8338176.html�
Jul 21, 2013
Nixx
Its 1.7m shares, not contracts. 1.7m contracts would be 170m shares, which is more shares than the float.�
Jul 21, 2013
AudubonB Aah - thanks, Nixx. A bit more realistic!!!!!
Regardless: my "Crikeys" stands!�
Jul 26, 2013
mershaw2001 I just want to point out that today at Fidelity, there were only 54,000 shares to short. This is down from 2 or 3 million (If I recall correctly) a week or two ago. The annual cost sits at a low 1.25% but I'm completely surprised at how few shares there were to short.
Either everyone sold their TSLA shares, or someone borrowed them and they aren't there to short.
Anyone else want to check for other brokerages?�
Jul 26, 2013
MikeC How do you check?�
Jul 27, 2013
LiteWait I think that knowing how many shares are available to short and the cost to borrow is really important information. Should we start a new thread to track this information on a daily basis? A thread called "Tracking the cost to borrow shares of TSLA"?�
Jul 28, 2013
blakegallagher
I hope this is accurate .... As much as I hate to see bears get shaved over and over again it sure has been good for my account
I just put in an email to my broker to see if they can update me with how many shares are available to short TSLA .... cant find that info anywhere but they seem to have good customer service ... hopefully they will get the info for me and I will post here.�
Jul 28, 2013
kcveins I don't think so; the information on the number of shares being shorted are only released twice a month.�
Jul 29, 2013
mershaw2001 The total number of shares short is released twice a month, however, you can check with your own broker just to see how many shares they have available to be shorted. If you keep tabs on that number, you can see how easy it is for shorts to get their hands on shares. For those looking at other brokerages, I find the information by going to "trade stock" and then pretending to short a share, and it tells me how many shares are available and what the annual price is. Then I just never click "execute order".�
Jul 29, 2013
kcveins This is what I get when I try a pretend "sell short" trade of TSLA on Schwab
"This stock is either ineligible to be shorted or shares must be borrowed externally. Lenders of hard-to-borrow securities charge a fee in the form of interest. Clients who wish to short a minimum of $50,000 of a hard-to-borrow security and are willing to pay a fee to cover the cost of borrowing those shares, may contact Securities Lending at 800-***-**** to determine the fee amount."�
Jul 31, 2013
smorgasbord Interesting SA article (not Petersen)
From almost 33 million to just over 18 million in about 3 months. Despite what others have said, the Shorts have NOT reloaded en masse.
I think those who got out at $95 expecting a lower buy-in price are going to continue to miss out for a while, unless there's some overall market correction. With BMW's i3 not impressing stat-wise, Tesla looks to have the luxury/performance EV market cornered for the next 12-18 months.�
Aug 7, 2013
GenIIIBuyer Net short activity in after hours today is to hold onto their shorts. IB shares available to short went from 100K at close, to 80K now.�
Aug 7, 2013
sleepyhead wrong thread...�
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