Nov 9, 2013
marvinat0rz I don't think this is a fruitful discussion, guys.�
Nov 9, 2013
anticitizen13.7 This is generally bad advice in my opinion. I would characterize it as possibly fatal to retirement accounts.
When global markets began crashing in October 2008 through early 2009, many investors pulled money out of stock market mutual funds, and stopped contributing to their retirement accounts as well. The S&P500 index fell about 50% during this period. Since then, the S&P500 has risen from about 700 to 1700+. People who got out of the market at the worst possible time often did not recover, and are suffering greatly as a result.
Selling when prices are low means (1) realizing a loss and (2) not being in the game on the upswing. It also means parking cash in bank accounts, money markets, or bonds. Almost none of those alternatives have good yields right now, and will be killed by inflation (2-3% erosion in purchasing power, vs. 0%-0.25% typical interest from a bank account). Just because an asset is "red" does not mean that putting money into it is bad. With respect to Tesla, the company has great technology, a stellar management team, and a long-term plan in place. It's a good bet I think for anyone who (1) can afford the risk (2) can hold for 5-10 years. It only makes sense to sell when one no longer has confidence in a company's management and future prospects.�
Nov 9, 2013
JRP3 And of course you know that the company will fail in the long term.�
Nov 9, 2013
GSP No one knows, of course. You have to place your bets on several companies based on their chance of success, and magnitude of success.
Just stating the obvious, I know.
GSP�
Nov 9, 2013
neroden Long-term, this is entirely correct. I actually pulled a lot of money out of the market permanently circa 2008, but that was *not* because of the downswing. It was because it had been revealed that all the major banks were run by career criminals and were profiting off of major, systemic frauds, ones reported in the newspapers -- "loss of confidence in management" would be a polite description of that, I suppose. I wanted to stay well away from those stocks, which were, and are still, dominating most of the indexes. The bank stocks have done quite well in the short term but they're still making their profits off of major frauds. I don't like investing in openly criminal operations; they seem very unsafe. Elon is basically honest and well-meaning, which is rarer than it should be in the corporate suites of publically traded companies.
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This. We have separate threads for short-term TSLA speculating and long-term TSLA investing, don't we?. I think with high volatility there's often going to be a solid case for short-term shorting. Long-term shorting is another matter entirely, and I think very few people here think it's sane.�
Nov 9, 2013
smorgasbord Does anybody every long-term short? Outside of buying Puts, which is something like 2 years out at most, I wouldn't know how to go about it.
To steal Elon's phrasing: There is a non-insane long term argument against Tesla having a rough road to big time success:
1) It starts with a possible recall on Model S to prevent floor-intrusion-caused fires
2) It continues with not being able to scale to tens of billions of batteries a year in time for Gen-3.
These are surmountable obstacles, but they could be hinderances and could impact the stock price for years.�
Nov 9, 2013
neroden Some very wealthy people have been known to do it. It's insanely dangerous. All you do is short-sell, which practically any broker will let you do on a margin account. And then you sit. And if the stock goes up, you double down. If the stock goes up, you'd better have a hell of a lot of collateral in order to hang on to your negative bet.
Extremely rich people have gone bankrupt doing this.�
Nov 9, 2013
Realist You can close your position anytime you want. Only real danger in comparison to a long is a sudden gap to the upside. Therefore you need more capital for this bet.
For TSLA many people seem to ignore the risks on the long side. This is a highly speculative stock. In the long term it can go to 300 or 3$. To me the second outcome is more likely.�
Nov 9, 2013
bonaire I know someone who is short since August. And is finally up on the whole batch of shorts.
what do you mean by long term? Days or months or years?
look at all the dot coms in the 90s that went to zero. Many made hedge fund managers millionaires.�
Nov 14, 2013
Realist To me the stock doesn't look in the best of health here.
I expect another wave of selling if it drops below 132.�
Nov 14, 2013
JRP3 Coupled with a wave of buying of course.�
Nov 18, 2013
neroden Months or years, but mostly years.
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The potential loss on an outright short position (as opposed to an options position) is *unlimited*. You can also be in a good short position and be forced to get out of it due to lack of margin when the stock runs too high.
By contrast, if you're in a long position and you're correct in the long run, you can just ride out the stock price -- it can drop to a penny a share for a while and it doesn't matter to you. (Assuming you aren't doing it on margin or with money you need.)
People who shorted those at the wrong time went bankrupt even if they were right in the long run.
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You can be *forced* to close your position when you *don't* want to, which can't happen with a long position.
Infinitely more capital. Literally, infinitely more.�
Nov 18, 2013
tftf I doubt many people only short-sell (100% short), that is indeed very risky. Shorting can be a combination of short stock and put options to limit the risks. Well known investor Bill Ackman recently had to switch to this strategy on his huge short bet on HLF (Herbalife), replacing some of the stock with OTC puts:
Bill Ackman Repositions Herbalife Short - Business Insider
Most people I know are only short with a small portion of their total portfolio, for example 125% long (using margin) and only up to 10-15% short. That limits the risks.
Long-term shorting profits also depend on borrowing costs for shorting the particular stock, these can be quite high depending on availability and float.
More generally, the "infinite risk" is only there in theory. Beyond the VW-Porsche merger or buyouts, I'm not aware of any large cap moving beyond 200-300% to the upside over a short period of time.�
Nov 18, 2013
Causalien Out of curiosity for Realist,
Did you made back the money you lost from the first big short? Also, how hard is it to borrow the shares?�
Nov 18, 2013
Realist Yes I did get some money back.
There is still some way to go but I am quite happy with the position right now, obviously. I expect the stock to drop to 50 and below mid term.
Shorting the stock isn't really an issue with a serious Broker.�
Nov 18, 2013
imherkimer why to 50? some magic for shorts in that number?�
Nov 18, 2013
kenliles yeah, I would think if it hit $50, there's no reason it wouldn't just go to zero - I would encourage shorts to just wait until then
disclosure, my long position needs more shorts (to mess with)
�
Nov 18, 2013
tftf I also think there's fair valuation around that level, I will consider going long again around that number (unless the drop into that zone is because of additional severe fire incidents).�
Nov 18, 2013
kenliles If the drop to that level is due to additional severe fire accidents (we haven't had even one of those yet), it won't stop until it reaches zero.
There will definitely be many more fires. As the number of cars on the road double next year, so will the fires. Course if Tesla is producing/selling twice the number, it will take a miracle to convince enough investor market to value at $50, without lots of severe fires. Sounds like 2 miracles needed to me.�
Nov 19, 2013
Realist I am out for the moment.
Sentiment overly pessimistic, short ratios exploding. There's room to the upside short term.
I beliebe any investigation will result in the Model S being save so there we could see a short squeeze from a positive outcome. I am a Tesla bear but I consider the car to be very save regarding fire.�
Nov 19, 2013
JRP3 Smart move, and well played.�
Nov 19, 2013
tftf I think so too. The mass media (CNBC needs ratings...its viewership figures are bad) love to replay a clip of a TSLA catching fire a dozen times and trot out talking heads filling airtime for hours. Statistics about conventional cars catching fire are forgotten, perception becomes reality.
Don't get me even started about a clown like Clooney. Why is the media taking him seriously on his five-year-old TSLA remarks? In addition, Clooney is sitting on a board of a company announcing hydrogen cars over and over again - without any results apart from some prototype drives every other year. I bet he gets a handsome reward for that thanks to a well-known watchmaker's involvement (A pet project of the prior company CEO: Swatch Group chairman Nicolas G. Hayek angles actor George Clooney for new energy venture. - swissinfo.ch ). He should not be throwing stones sitting in a hydrogen glass house.
( That being said, another "series" of fires in a short period of time, sort of a freakish cluster in small-sample statistics, could of course hurt TSLA stock again short-term, at least in media perception.)
A burning car is more interesting to talk about on TV than DCF/sales projections vs market cap, car market and margin statistics or the TSLA battery supply chain. That was my focus deciding on a short position - in addition to momentum going crazy (similar to NFLX in summer of 2011).
I also closed half of my position earlier today.�
Nov 19, 2013
Causalien Realist,
Even though we are on opposing camps, I respect you writing out your reasoned response on your short. Unlike other people who posts with an agenda. Yours is a pure intention of making profit.�
Nov 21, 2013
vin5xxx Realist - So Consumer Reports' owners survey seems to debunk your theory that Tesla's warranty accruals are too low. If it is the most satisfying car to own on the roads today - BY FAR, then doesn't it follow that there are not excessive defects in the Model S? In fact, it implies that there are very few defects in the Model S. And this is in the first full year of production when cars typically experience the highest ratio of problems. This point needs to be repeated because it is so significant: best car on the road in its FIRST FULL YEAR OF PRODUCTION! So Tesla is likely to improve quality control and future owners are likely to have fewer defects going forward.
So while you won this most recent battle (I'm assuming you have had greater losses in the run up to $194), you clearly will be losing the war. I think you were lucky with all of the fire-related over-hype. Once the public learns that this is the greatest car ever created and it does not self combust, the stock will return to its skyrocket ways. The increase in ground clearance at highway speeds is likely to reduce the chance of more fires in the months to come. The eventual conclusion of the NHTSA report is likely to be a positive event as well. So that doesn't leave you with many scenarios of doom.
I'd be curious to hear your thoughts pertaining to your conclusion that Tesla is going to incur very high warranty costs in light of the actual experiences Tesla owners are enjoying with their Model S.�
Nov 21, 2013
Realist Well, my Lotus has lots of problems and I still love it. I believe many current Model S will defend their car regardless of problems.
And the Model S is still only roughly a year old. The Porsches have points above 90 and are much older cars. That is a very different story.
A few days ago I had the chance to look at the Model S again (still have not driven it yet) and once again I was shocked by the low quality level. Clearly the car gets a huge homeground bonus in the US. But at least in germany only very few customers will accept that standard on such an expensive car. The seats are a joke, it feels and smells like a cheap japanese minicar.
When I have finally driven the car I will report at this place.�
Nov 21, 2013
sub It's funny how the rules only apply when it works out in your favor. I've read this in a couple of places this morning, "people tend to support the products they buy, that is why the Tesla was rated so high by it's owners'. Umm, didn't the people that rated the Porsche, the Volt, and all the other cars also buy those and would defend them just the same? Hypocritical much?
However, I do agree with you on some of the interior aspects of the Model S. I would not compare it to a cheap car, but I do feel that the interiors of some of the German brands are nicer. I ended up buying a used BMW to get me buy until I buy a Tesla, overall the interior is nicer than the Model S. However, to me and I think most Tesla current and future owners, that is a minor issue and it's not going to keep many people from buying the car when you look at the entire package. Yeah, my BMW has slightly nicer interior, but it burns gas (Diesel actually) and even though it's a CPO and was "inspected and certified" before I bought it, it was back at the dealer the first week getting 2 repairs, broken seat switch and they discovered an oil leak that needed to be fixed. Car is less than 2 years old. So, in comparison, BMW wins interior quality by a nose, Tesla wins everything else by a mile.�
Nov 21, 2013
kenliles those seats are specially designed to hold your ass in place when you exert slight pressure with your right foot...
the smell is to accommodate crap-in-pants when you press it a little further... autobahn not withstanding�
Nov 21, 2013
SFOTurtle To each his own on subjective things like seats and "build quality," but compared to our BMW 5 series, the MS wins hands down. I love the MS seats compared to my BMW seats, and when I sold my eight year old 5 series earlier this year, things were falling apart all over the place. Seemed like I was spending $2k-3K a year on maintenance, and that doesn't include all of the little things that broke that we never fixed like cupholders, lights on the stereo display fritzing, A/C unit shorting out (but only in the summer when we really needed it to work), etc. My 5 series looked and felt very much like my Toyota Highlander, but worse. Pretty much anything that could fall apart was falling apart on the BMW. If that kind of German engineering is the gold standard, Tesla must be platinum. But again, to each his own.�
Nov 21, 2013
Realist To my eyes the Model S loses on quality not by a mile but lightyears. And to many customers quality is by far the most important aspect when buying a car.
Regarding the power and drivetrain. I have driven the Roadster so I know what to expect. It's going to be a smooth and powerful experience. But it is not really going to blow my pants. The fastest car I have driven so far is a 740hp Ferrari F12. So.....I am not THAT frightened.�
Nov 21, 2013
Krugerrand Do not mix up your personal preference with the preferences of others, or try to make the group you belong to bigger than it might actually be to satisfy your story.
If we're being honest with each other, the most important aspect of any *useful* car is that it get you from point A to point B in a safe and timely manner. The rest is just window dressing.�
Nov 21, 2013
kenliles well said-
@ Realist - just joking around with you- I'm sure you're not frightened;
can't say that for myself though; I've driven that same Ferrari and it scared the hell outta me!
Doesn't sound like ModS would ever be your cup-of-tea though�
Nov 21, 2013
JRP3 Indeed. Realists impression of the S are in direct conflict with the impressions of most people, including people who have owned many of the cars Realist claims are superior. Realist and Petersen will never appreciate a Model S, for whatever reasons....�
Nov 21, 2013
TSLAopt I was reading your earlier posts, you must have gotten burned real bad from 100 all the way up to 150+ for as long as you held your short (hope it wasn't much over 150 as I believe you said that was your limit back in mid summer before Q2 report).
hope your bitterness doesn't impair your ability to appreciate superior auto engineering from Silicon Valley.�
Nov 21, 2013
sub Its also ok that everyone doesn't want a model S, they can't make enough anyways. I was trying to think of a good example today and this is the best I could come up with. Some people like realist, Peterson, tftf (sp?) don't get it. They try to break down tesla and tsla using numbers and it doesn't work. I can compare it to America's general view/feelings about Soccer. We couldn't care less, and I'm a huge sports fan. However, it's the most popular sport in the world if I'm not mistaken? Explain that to me using the numbers? You can't, just like you will never understand why a company like tesla means so much to so many people. Good luck with your calculator. Hope I made some sense with that comparison, I've polished off a bottle of wine by myself this evening so maybe not�
Nov 22, 2013
Robert.Boston Tesla's interior design is luxurious in a Bauhaus way. There are many who don't see minimalism as luxury, but prefer the English-gentlemen's-club level of fitment. Tesla's leather quality is markedly higher than that in my BMW 535; the plastics are at least equal between the cars. There are some places the BMW is better, particular the interior ambient lighting and carpet quality. But it's impossible to keep the 50+ knobs/dials/buttons clean on the BMW, while I can simply wipe the Tesla's center console with a microfiber cloth.�
Nov 22, 2013
ecarfan Robert, well said. "Less is more". I love the minimalism and form follows function approach of the Tesla interior. I do not admire the over-designed "aren't I impressive!" ostentatious look of many expensive luxury cars.�
Nov 22, 2013
Clemsons2k Personally I prefer internal combustion vehicles, but thats not based on dislike for Tesla or their cars. I think their cars are fantastic and I really hope they succeed. That said though, my list of "wants" in the car world does not have a Model S anywhere near the top. I just love working on my cars and I love the raw rumbling feel / sound of controlled explosions converted into forward momentum. Both of those things I would not have with the Model S. This forum is rather biased as far as EVs go (obviously) and I've seen a lot of people getting flak based on personal preference. Not everyone has the same opinion, and not everyone has to be "converted" to the EV mindset�
Nov 22, 2013
Krugerrand Clearly the BMW is better for finding lost contacts and...um...preventing rug burn. :wink:�
Nov 22, 2013
tftf Every investment has to work out based on numbers in the long term, unless it's a non-profit or charity.
You can for example dismiss my long posts about the billions of cells TSLA will need to achieve its sales estimates (car numbers/year the analysts model in for their lofty target stock prices). But these numbers will not go away/improve unless TSLA soon has a magic battery that is 5-10x better than anything on the market, the chance for this is very slim (and also the chance that this battery is unique to TSLA) - numbers again.
Short-term, any stock or the entire stock market can "disregard" the numbers, either in euphoria/bubbles or in depression, but not longer term. It's reverse to the mean over time based on the underlyings: numbers of cars sold, operating margins, competitor moves and overall size of the car market as well as future alternatives/substitute products (for example, better public transport).
As for the "haters" term, I try to do all my investments as un-emotionally as possible. I was both short and long TSLA in the past, I certainly wouldn't have been long as a "hater". Since you brought up sports examples: You should not treat an investment like a favorite sports team in my opinion; being a "fan" of the stock means emotional attachment, this is very dangerous when the position goes against you.
I mentioned "Behavioral Finance" in earlier posts, an important part of this is selective news filtering. If you only read news reinforcing your views (i.e. positive news on TSLA), this makes you less aware of risks. I became a much better investor listening to the other side all the time to re-adjust my views (especially after I take my positions).�
Nov 22, 2013
sub I read everything on Tesla, even the non stop SA bashing articles. I have actually seen a couple of comments from you in the past week that could almost be taken as positive, I almost replied to them and congratulated you. Let's take Peterson for example, he is so clearly against Tesla that you can't take anything he says seriously. He moves from one aspect of the company to the next. It's like right wingers that can say nothing good about Obama, ever. Really, he has never said or done one thing that you agree with? not possible.
My point wasn't to get emotional with the stock, or this company in particular. My point was that the naysayers don't get the change that has and is happening when it comes to the environment, wanting to get off oil etc. I'm not discounting your battery math, but I haven't done my own in depth, exhaustive research other than reading every opinion that has been presented on the subject. However, I'm an optimist, and I look at history. This problem will be solved like every other problem has been solved. I'm willing to risk the money I have in TSLA that my optimism will be rewarded, life is so much happier this way.
What I don't get is, if your a bear on TSLA at the moment, why waste so much energy? Place your bet and sit back and enjoy your profits if your that confident. The fact that your on here all day long and comment on every negative SA article downgrading tesla and the stock, tells me your not all that confident in your position. Short term the bears may get some of their money back, but most around here believe in the long term and are willing to wager on it. I tend to not listen to people that never have anything good to say about anything, I would rather go sit in the garage with my ICE running.�
Nov 22, 2013
Causalien My question for naysayers is a lot more simple and so far, nobody has answered me. What made you join a forum dedicated to a technology you dislike. I cannot wrap my mind around it. If I hate something (ex Justin Bieber) I stay as far away as possible from their fan pages. People do things because there's happiness to be found. For me there's happiness in seeing a new technology succeed. What is in it for naysayers? I'd thought you would do the bashing in an ICE enthusiast forum like Ford or something. Are there EV people in Ford forum bashing ICE?
Just curious from psychological stand point.�
Nov 22, 2013
TSLAopt +10000
seems strange to me too. My guess TFTF is a hired troll by shorts or some big autocompany or dealers association because I can't imagine why he spreads so much subtle-FUD otherwise.
i tried to private message him once to see if I could get an honest answer and he did say he ges paid by people.
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+10000 too.
it's very bizarre. There are so many big institutions that want to see or need to see TSLA fail that it makes sense there are lots of smear campaigns being conducted against TSLA by these institutions. Sad but true.
in the end it helps TSLA but it is sad to see all the negativity that an be created by people on what really is a very positive change for society.�
Nov 22, 2013
tftf This requires a longer answer
I don't dislike EVs as a technology in general. I don't think this is a black and white decision of EV vs ICE vs fuel cells, even hardened skeptics think EVs or PHEVs are better in some use cases (since more and more people have now driven an EV).
I joined this site to discuss why the stock was overvalued in my opinion (especially when it was close to $200 in September and warned of institutions reducing their positions vs retail investors). One has to separate the company from the stock price in my opinion, just because I think the stock price is too high doesn't mean I dislike (or even "hate") the company.
Finally, I wanted to stress the importance of battery supply issues facing TSLA/all EVs and discuss the estimates/numbers.
I think battery manufacturing (supply) challenges were under-reported and barely discussed compared to overblown short-term challenges (fires etc.).
Without more giant battery factories being built worldwide, there will never be enough supply for 10% (or even higher) of all new cars to be EVs. Some simple calculations assuming long-range EVs take off to illustrate my point:
100 million new cars/year (assuming demand in Asia continues to grow with new first-time buyers/rising middle class, this is likely. The current number is at 85 million new cars produced per year).
Let's assume 80 million of those are new passenger cars/year (currently at around 65 million cars/year)
Let's assume 10% of those are long-range EVs with 4000 cells each (assuming TSLA's model of using small cells and Ah improvements/cell)
8 million cars x 4000 cells = 32 billion cells needed per year.
As we know TSLA already (as of late 2013) is one of the largest buyers of Li-Ion cells worldwide and it currently produces just 25k or so cars/year.
And again, I'm just assuming about 10% of all passenger cars being long-range BEVs in that scenario, 90% of cars would still use older battery types or run on ICE, CNG, fuel cells etc.
You can call me a EV "naysayer", but in my opinion, it will take decades to solve the battery supply problem (unless a real breakthrough in battery tech comes along in 10-20 years...).
Somehow we have to make sure we can produce these 32 billion cells (or the equivalent in larger cells) efficiently and eco-friendly, including the raw material supply chain.
So in my opinion, the EV "revolution" will be harder and take longer than anticipated on a grand scale (again unless a battery tech breakthrough comes along...).
I know that continuing to use a lot of oil is also very problematic (hidden military costs/resource wars over oil, oil spills, shortages in conventional oil fields, problems with "fracking" and other unconventional oil...).
There is no easy solution.
I laid out my view for a more eco-friendly transport future here (it may not please car enthusiasts as it intends to plateau personal mobility at current levels: Open letter to the Haters - Page 4 ).
PS: If you don't agree with my numbers please let me know. More TSLA-specific battery supply numbers are in the "giga factory" thread.�
Nov 22, 2013
Causalien So why do you join this forum to talk down the stock price? Aren't those discussion more for Seeking Alpha? Or yahoo finance since there, people are actually stock traders.
So you said your nays. What are the solutions to these nays? What I want to see, and what I think will be constructive is if you can come up with solutions to them instead of incessantly repeating the same boring points that I've probably been reading since the beginning of TSLA. Even if you are paid per post per reply, if you can say your nays and be constructive, I have no problems discussing with you.�
Nov 22, 2013
tftf If you think this forum or Seeking Alpha moves the price for TSLA more than a tiny bit, I think you overestimate its importance on the stock market (maybe penny stock pushers can move markets online for thinly traded stocks, but the daily volume in TSLA is above 10 million shares traded...).
Most professional analysts currently have price targets above $200 for TSLA. So I could argue this is a bull conspiracy to push up the price using your logic (I'm not)?
Analysts from well-known sell-side institutions changing their price or CNBC / Bloomberg showing another burning Model S video 10 times per day can move TSLA stock a lot more in my opinion. So can a new Elon Musk interview and other positive press coverage (CNBC was on the TSLA factory floor an entire day recently...).
As for mentioning the numbers (billions of cells) and challenges again and again, what is your answer?
Are my numbers or time estimates wrong?
If you think TSLA and other EV makers (together with battery suppliers or on their own) can soon build 32 billion cells quicker and cheaper than I anticipated, buy a lot of TSLA and battery manufacturers stock. I will be wrong and you will be rich
I'm just pointing out the supply bottlenecks compared to many analyst estimates: There is simply no way to sell so many EVs per year if there aren't enough batteries (i.e. new giant battery plants).
I have laid out some general solutions with a link (edited my post above), but there are no easy answers in my opinion.
PS: Finally, I take issue with comments like "Even if you are paid per post per reply". Do you think I am being paid by the oil industry or any other third party? Please read this link (which I also posted on SA a few times) to see my position on that:
The U.S. Military Spends Trillions for Oil - By Peter Maass | Foreign Policy
But even if we all drive EVs one day, we will still need a lot of oil and other, finite resources...I just wanted to point out the huge supply challenges involved if EV demand takes off.�
Nov 22, 2013
GSP "So in my opinion, the EV "revolution" will be harder and take longer than anticipated on a grand scale (again unless a battery tech breakthrough comes along...)."
I think the problem here is unrealistic expectations. TFTF and others can anticipate something unrealistic, then be disappointed that a huge battery industry cannot be built in 5-10 years. It will take longer than that. Get over it.
GSP�
Nov 22, 2013
tftf I think many unrealistic expectations are from bullish TSLA analysts and stock holders. They model in 500k+ in unit sales before the end of this decade without even factoring in the challenges on the battery supply side.
I will likely go long TSLA once again if it falls back to 50-65 USD. In that range, TSLA wouldn't need so many car sales and I could make the fundamental valuation work using my estimates and inputs.
PS: To re-assure longs: I also think the probability of TSLA falling that low again are small at the moment.�
Nov 22, 2013
anticitizen13.7 I've pointed out in several threads that a shift in population trends towards more walking/biking-friendly communities could affect the automobile industry very negatively in the future. However, I think there will always be a need for some kind of motorized transport in industrialized nations, and Tesla is better positioned than other carmakers to provide the automobiles that people or communities will want.�
Nov 22, 2013
ModelS8794 perhaps it it is unrealistic, but It's not just bullish TSLA analysts and stock holders making those estimates. Tesla themselves also model 700,000 unit sales in 2019.�
Nov 22, 2013
Krugerrand My answer is to let Elon Musk and Tesla do what Elon Musk and Tesla do, and not worry about it. I know, leap of faith, right? Not really. I've been following the progress of Tesla and SpaceX for a couple of years now. They know how to get stuff done and they've proven a number of times that they can get it done more cheaply than anyone ever realized. There's an undeniable track record.
I understand your need to break it all down into dollars and cents trying to understand how Tesla will do it. My educated guess based on watching Tesla and SpaceX unfold is that Elon Musk had most of the details already figured out in his head long before the first time he mentioned the giga factory several months ago. A man who can put together something like the Hyperloop will find the details of a giga factory child's play and something you do during a Sunday morning shower.�
Nov 22, 2013
tftf I probably wasn't clear and should have formulated better: Assuming TSLA can get the funding in 2015, I do not question that TSLA could build this giant factory by 2017 and expand it in 2018+
My point was that bullish analysts do not properly factor in the huge costs involved (capital costs and new debt deal in place around 2015) to build this plant.
Estimating more traditional Gen III car-related cap ex for tooling etc. that would also be needed for a new ICE model is probably easier.
Assuming Straubels numbers of 3.5 billion cells in 2019 I estimate this is above 10 billion dollars of investments just for the battery part. I took smaller numbers for just 250-500k cars myself and arrived at 5 to 10 billion in total including the car.
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There is of course a chance TSLA or a supplier came up with a substantial improvement over current battery technology, but even if that's the case I highly doubt it's ready to be mass-produced given the lead times (billions of cells needed by 2017 for Gen III, therefore plant construction has to start in 2015 according to my estimates).
With current battery technology (assuming around 10% improvements/cost reductions per year and looking at similar plants from Nissan-NEC and Panasonic, details in the giga factory thread) this plant investment will require a follow-on or taking on lots of debt in my estimates.
I'm not saying this is impossible, it will just take a lot of things to go right and on time - including favorable financial markets around 2015 (borrowing appetite from lenders and bullish institutional investors).
In summary, my worry is more on the financial side of things, not the technology side (although keeping up a very good quality control and raw material supply timing will be central).�
Nov 22, 2013
Krugerrand Elon Musk has been talking about battery improvements all along. He knows what the improvements will be and when. Like I said, Sunday morning shower problem. It's solved in his head. All the rest is tedious, mind numbing stuff that just takes time to get in place.�
Nov 22, 2013
ABVA You are contradicting yourself. What kind of LALA land you are in. Some if not all of Supercharging Stations derive Solar power, NO CARBON FOOTPRINT. Just curious, are you working for Wall Street, Oil Industry, or Auto Industry?
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Realist, you are ignoring reality, i.e. You are totally UNREALISTIC�
Nov 22, 2013
brianman That's an interesting deflection but not a denial.�
Nov 22, 2013
anticitizen13.7 Agreed. I'd like to hear directly from tftf whether or not they are being paid by another party to post here at TMC.
For the record, nobody pays me to post here, and I do so only for my own personal intellectual curiosity.�
Nov 23, 2013
tftf Rest assured nobody ever paid me to post anything here or on SA. I am fiercely independent, that's why I'm quite critical of most analysts, especially sell-side stock analysts (not just in TSLA's case).
TSLA interests me the same way AAPL does in the IT industry, its business model has effects on the entire sector. One of my areas of interest is disruptive technology, I'm interested to what extent and in which timeframe this is possible in the transportation industry.
So far, I think this is quite different than the IT industry. Taking AAPL as an example, the company managed to disrupt major industries (music, mobile phones, software distribution, newspapers...) in short time frames.
I think such revolutions possible in the IT or biotech industry are more difficult and slower to achieve in other industries.
One of the major reasons in the (EV) car industry is battery supply/manfacturing, especially in the quantities needed for the mass-market. (Continued in next post)�
Nov 23, 2013
tftf I don't think this will be a walk in the park. I think nobody argues TSLA can't make fine cars (as proven by reviews).
The key is battery supply and manufacturing capability.
We either get a battery research breakthrough one day (but this will also take time from lab to mass production) or we can only slowly move to around $150/kWh over time with current technology in my opinion.
McKinsey's estimates (to take one example) in comparison:
Battery technology charges ahead | McKinsey Company
McK' starting costs are probably too high (the 2012 figures), current costs already are lower.
But getting to around $150 per kWh will be hard to achieve.
I think the real "tipping point" for EV mass adoption could be around this figure, $150 per kWh (I didn't take $200 or above because new cars also compete with cheaper used cars in the market, not just other new cars. The ASP of new cars is around $30k in the U.S., similar in other countries).
The key to EV adoption lies in the hands of battery manufacturing improvements to be achieved by 2020 (let's say 5 years faster, more optimistic than McK with 2025).
Even if the path is clear, questions remain
- Will TSLA investors be that patient?
In IT or biotech, investors are accustomed to big quarterly market share shifts. With EVs and cars, they need to be a lot more patient. There could be many downs in between now and 2020, including a major correction in the stock market.
- Do they see the battery constraints?
Repeating myself here, but when you look at analyst estimates who write about 500k cars sold by 2018 but don't write a word about the battery plant TSLA has to build first, you have to wonder...
- Will TSLA still be at the forefront in 2020 or will the established car companies catch up in case battery prices fall to the promised levels?
Even with a first giant battery plant ready, TSLA can "only" produce around 500k or so cars per year. They would basically have to start building their second giant battery plant as they finish the first one (by the end of this decade).
If the market turns, big companies will invest heavily in their own battery plants in that timeframe...a glut and boom/bust cycle like in the early days of the solar industry could result in a price war.�
Nov 23, 2013
JRP3 Why bother to reference a source that is so obviously out of touch with today's pricing? If anything correcting their numbers to reflect reality would suggest that the cost reductions are well within grasp.�
Nov 23, 2013
tftf Yes, I fully agree with you regarding current pricing available to TSLA (and noted that above). I still used that study as a starting point because it's recent and from a well-known consultancy.
More importantly regarding future prices. When taking...
- battery raw material input prices (basically the "floor" for pricing)
- glut in 18650 manufacturing plants (existing, idle Panasonic plants restarted for TSLA)
(I know the second "idle" Panasonic plant argument is used by John Petersen at SA, which may be a red flag here, but I think this argument is valid)
...into account I think the progress (less $/kWh) will be much slower from now on towards the $150 "goal".
In my opinion, the $150 range is the "tipping point" for EV adoption in the mass-market.
This may be about 5+ years off (around 2020) in my rough estimates, maybe <$200/kWh will already start the shift in the mass market.
PS: Edit. I'm moving this part of the discussion to the cost per kWh thread where it probably fits in better.�
Nov 23, 2013
Krugerrand Yes, I understand that is your position. I understood it several dozens posts ago. I don't agree and I've sited why: historical evidence.
On a comparative scale of giga factory vs private rocket ship company building the least expensive rocket of all time and sending it to the ISS and now just a short time away from the first ever truly reuseable rocket, or giga factory vs brand new car manufacturer and building an entirely never before seen car from the ground up and winning every award of merit, building out a new fueling infrastructure all over the world and offering the fuel for free, employing a never before seen car selling business model...
Giga factory is a walk in the park. Tedious perhaps, but not difficult.�
Nov 23, 2013
tftf I don't disagree achieving the goal is possible, but it won't be a walk in the park imho. Sending a rocket to space every few months is one thing, sending a rocket to space every week and keeping costs, quality control and the time schedule in line is another to continue the analogy.
Anyway, the arguments have been laid out. We should see the first milestone in about 12 months if my timeline estimates are roughly valid:
By late 2014 or early 2015 TSLA will have to get the funding (for example from the DoE or private investors or a mix), get the permits and then build the plant (start construction later in 2015) on their own or in a JV with a battery supplier (that list is short: Panasonic, LG, Samsung and maybe, maybe BYD, but I guess one the first three).�
Nov 23, 2013
Krugerrand I can conclude that you feel building a giga factory is at least on par in terms of difficulty with the establishment and accomplishments of SpaceX and Tesla to date. Awesome. We continue to disagree. Next.�
Jan 14, 2014
Realist So the Realist is back and for the moment I have changed the side.
I am long Tesla Motors. For now :-D
There is truly an irrational high short ratio at the stock and I see a very high probability of a new squeeze. Demand for the Model S is still very robust and with Model X and Model E coming up, there are also some potential catalysts ahead.
I have to say that I also underestimated the demand for an emission free electric car in this class. I tried to compare this car with a conventional vehicle but a lot of people simply want to drive electric. I am not in this camp. I found the Model S really disappointing to drive. Poor performance under hard driving, quality issues, comfort etc���. But that is my subjective point of view and many people think differently. I am a very conventional old fashioned car guy and I still believe sales will be underwhelming in germany.
But in the US it is a different story and that is the market that really matters for Tesla�
Jan 14, 2014
uselesslogin I feel like the squeeze should start today just because you are long. Welcome back! I miss his thread. Actually I still miss it since now you are long there isn't much debating to do. I also don't think there will be strong demand in Germany until there is better range and faster charging. Though you would know better than I would anyway.�
Jan 14, 2014
Zythryn Welcome back Realist.
Even though I disagree with you on many points, I do appreciate your contributions.
i also appreciate that you admit you underestimated the demand.
However, I have to point out that many of the test drivers at a recent test drive event did not have the zero emissions aspect at top of mind. It was the incredible quality of the drive. Unmatched by any ICE vehicle.
The day to day drive quality of the car is unmatched. The racing speed handling may not be, but this car isn't targeted at that group.
It will be interesting to see how Tesla does in Germany, Europe and Asia as time goes by.�
Jan 14, 2014
JRP3 Good timing on being long instead of short.�
Jan 14, 2014
Discoducky Proof or it didn't happen�
Jan 14, 2014
SFOTurtle Hell must be freezing over.�
Jan 14, 2014
uselesslogin Should have bought more calls when I saw Realist going long.�
Jan 14, 2014
techmaven I give Realist credit for seeing the situation and posting before the event happened.�
Jan 14, 2014
bonnie Now what do I do? My world has completely imploded. I'm lost.�
Jan 14, 2014
Zextraterrestrial sell? :tongue:
short?
find a new world?�
Jan 14, 2014
bonnie hold.
�
Jan 14, 2014
MikeC Welcome to the light side, Realist. Isn't it much more fun over here?�
Jan 14, 2014
Zextraterrestrial ah, yes. good idea
I considered getting more last night but my unused $ was all being used�
Jan 14, 2014
NigelM I swear I can hear angels singing.... ;-)�
Jan 14, 2014
Discoducky Maybe we'll get a Tesla grin too? That's the pic I'm hoping for.�
Jan 14, 2014
Zythryn Hell Freezes Over | Funny Sign Pictures�
Jan 14, 2014
vin5xxx Well hell has frozen over. Realist, congrats on making the switch and announcing before the market opened today. What great timing you had!!!!
Now, as to your comments about the drive quality and build quality. You are in the EXTREME minority on both of these issues (winner of all of the COTY awards...c'mon). So I wonder if your predisposition against Tesla's success is driven by nationalistic pride. Are you in the German car industry? It seems pretty clear to me that you are not happy about an American car leading the automotive world into new territory. If it helps, don't think of American cars as Detroit anymore. Think of the new American car frontier springing from Silicon Valley. Those are 2 vastly different worlds.�
Jan 14, 2014
EarlyAdopter Realist - I really, really hope you went long with real money and not just sentiment before the run up this morning!
As for the driving experience, I was (and continue to be every day for a year now) blown away with the Model S performance. Peak torque from 0 rpm, powerful linear acceleration, and no transmission to fumble around with lag. Nothing else compares. And my last three cars were performance Audi's (S4) and a BMW (M3). Compleletley won this German car fan over, permanently.
I'd encourage you to give the Model S another test drive. Hopefully soon they'll be available for longer test drives there.�
Jan 14, 2014
chickensevil That has to be the world's greatest timing for a short to turn around on a stock like this. I too hope you actually put money down on this, because I get the feeling that this is the start of a new wave (which could very well come crashing back down again, crazy, crazy stock!)
PS: Managed to steal some shares this morning at 138... my only regret, that I didn't throw my entire bank account at this thing haha!�
Jan 14, 2014
rtz 06-25-2013
"They announced today that they sold and delivered 6900 this last quarter, about 20% above previous guidance."
(In the comments): Registry of Custom Electric Vehicles - Wormhole and Stargate - EVTV Motor Verks�
Jan 15, 2014
Realist Of course I am in the stock with real money. I was also short with real money before. The timing was a bit lucky now I have to say.
The main reason to go long was the combination of solid demand for the Model S and the irrational high short quote. This led me to the conclusion that many people simply underestimate the company and its product. Just like me.
I have to talked to many people in the german car industry about the Model S. Most people are talking the car down. They take the car to the german Autobahn and show their bosses how badly it performs there and so on.
And then inevitably they make the same mistake I made. They don�t understand that many people do not really care about the bad seats, the inconsistent performance and other things like charging and range. They want to drive electric. They hate ICEs. They only WANT a Model S.
Currently there is only one german car company who understands this threat: BMW. They will come up with an i5 in 2015 and this will be the first car to challenge the Model S on range and speed.
Until then I see very few hurdles on Tesla�s road.�
Jan 15, 2014
sub You just summed up the one point that I feel shorts don't get. They want to break it down financially, claim the range is too short, the costs don't make sense, compare the stock to other auto companies, people can't afford a Model S and on and on. What they don't get, because they don't feel it personally and they can't see the forest through the trees, is that there is a shift in peoples thinking. I know this because I've gone through it myself. This is the same reason I'm invested in Solar and put an 8kw system on my roof 6 months ago.�
Jan 15, 2014
Robert.Boston I see the introduction of real competition (eventually) as having a very strong potential upside for Tesla:
Elon has been clear that he welcomes competition and is surprised by the lack of anything meaningful to date. Let's hope that BMW, at least, gets its act together with something better than the i3.
- Most people don't take EVs as credible car offerings; as more companies join Nissan in offering BEVs, that credibility gap is erased and Tesla's offerings will be considered by more people.
- As more EVs hit the showrooms of more companies, the charging infrastructure will be built out, again easing a concern that keeps some people from buying an EV (and, ergo, from considering a Tesla).
- At least a few of the major EV suppliers (whoever those turn out to be) will contract to use Tesla's Supercharger network rather than building their own. This will be an important source of incremental revenues for Tesla with huge % margins.
�
Jan 15, 2014
mkjayakumar A very credible competition will actually help Tesla.
And when I hear arguments from naysayers as to how the initial higher cost of an EV can never be recuperated through gas savings unless gas price increases to $5 per gallon - I find that line of reasoning most idiotic. As if gas savings are a huge part in decision making on buying a Model S.�
Jan 15, 2014
chickensevil To some it is. At the very least it helps with justifying in my head spending as much as I am on the car. I mean eventually I wanted a high end car anyway, and now I can justify that at least in this respect I am not spending as much money as I think I am spending.
Also, not sure what price point they were trying to compare to, even comparing a 30MPG car at a 3.20 gas price (which is exactly my stats in my current situation) and driving my 12,000 miles a year, I will end up saving I think it was 700$ or something. While not a *huge* number, it is something. And for the other "dream cars" that I WOULD have ACTUALLY been competing my bottom line for, I would have ended up with a 20MPG (or less, because, gotta have fun gunning the gas now and then) car, AND having to stick premium fuel at 3.70$ that would have cost me an additional 1000$ a year in fuel alone. So 1700 over 5 years, means that I can spend an extra 8500 now and still break even (for the most part). Assuming prices remain the same, which is not likely.�
Jan 15, 2014
772 I also agree that a strong competitive product to the Model S would be good news for Tesla, as it means EVs would gain more credibility and exposure. BMW may come out with an i5 in 2015, but at least here in the US, they will still have a challenge convincing their dealers who make most of their money on servicing ICE cars.�
Jan 15, 2014
vin5xxx The BMW i5 is not competition to the Tesla if it only has 100mile range like the i3.�
Jan 15, 2014
JRP3 I think it's a safe assumption that it will be significantly better than the i3. It has to be or there is no point building it.�
Jan 15, 2014
TSLA Siempre Yes. Agree. In fact, it has to be better than even the ICE 3 series BMW. One thing that Tesla has shown is that it wants to build, and really must build, a car that is so compelling and superior to the existing competition, that people will desire it not just think it is ok. Tesla is succeeding in advancing electric vehicles (and its business) because you don't have to feel sorry for buying a Tesla (as you would some other EV's). As one journalist put it (can't remember who), we will be 'seduced' into the EV revolution not reluctantly pushed into it.�
Jan 15, 2014
vin5xxx I'm not sure what makes it a safe assumption that it will be significantly better than the i3. It's simply a bigger i3 just as the 5 series is bigger and more luxurious than the 3 series. In fact, BMW spent a billion dollars and years producing a car that can only go 100 miles on battery power. As slow as battery improvements occur I'd argue that it's a safe bet the i5 will NOT be significantly better than the i3.�
Jan 15, 2014
772 If it comes out in 2015, I agree that it won't be significantly better than an i3. Maybe 2020-2022.�
Jan 15, 2014
Grendal The i5 will probably be better than the Leaf or the i3, but it won't be a strong competitor for the Model E.
My guess: 125 mile range, better look, will also have the option for a range extender (maybe), 0-60 in 7 seconds, around 180 HP, will also not be anywhere as cool looking as the Model S, BMW kidney grill, and that's about it.�
Jan 15, 2014
TSLA Siempre woops. thought you were talking about Model E vs. i3. who knows what an i5 would be like. Grendal's assessment seems about right, but i would guess 90 miles range. bigger than i5, but not necessarily better.�
Jan 16, 2014
Realist According to my sources BMW is closely working with Samsung on the next Generation battery for the i5. Range will be double to the i3 without REX but with the same drive unit. Therefore hp figures are unchanged. It's got the same carbon shell but longer with conventional doors. Price will be starting at app. 50k$.
An AWD Version with 2 drive units and Model S beating performance is also in the works. But it takes time.�
Jan 16, 2014
JRP3 If the i5 is just a larger version of the i3 with a bit more range then it will be a fail. My assumption, possibly quite wrong, is that BMW would not do that. Sleeker packaging, and range in the 150 mile area with a $45-50K price tag is quite possible and would sell quite well in my opinion, especially if it came out before the E.�
Jan 16, 2014
chickensevil Im cool with that, there is enough potential market share here for plenty of good competition to spring up and make a better product for everyone. I am just glad that Elon (and the other founders) were willing to take this huge leap, because it is finally propelling at least a couple companies forward to actually make a better product or risk getting kicked to the curb.
Right now, I only see three companies even really trying. Tesla, Nissan, and BMW. The others are not looking too good. I would love to see these three companies become the next "Big Three" haha!�
Jan 16, 2014
Robert.Boston Daimler is introducing the B-series based on the Tesla drive train, though it's not clear to me yet whether this is anything more than a compliance car. I agree, though, that Daimler is not contending against Tesla, but rather working as a distributor for Tesla. Any predictions about when Tesla will buy Daimler?�
Jan 16, 2014
chickensevil I would be more likely the other direction Daimler buy Tesla, which wouldn't happen anytime soon (like next 5 years), and beyond that is anyone's guess. Tesla just simply wouldn't have the capital to buy a company, and I don't think it would ever be in their best interest to buy out a whole company because then you have to go through and trim out all the fat from the company and it is just a nightmare... especially given how radical Tesla is being with the auto market in general... ie. Dealerships, Service Centers, Marketing, etc.
Tesla might purchase specific assets from a company going under (like they did with the NUMA plant), but I wouldn't expect them to buy out the entire company, it is just incompatible. Just my 2 cents. Feel free to poke holes in it!�
Jan 16, 2014
qwk If what you state is true, the i5 will be a flop. Unchanged Hp figures + bigger heavier car + higher price=major fail. BMW can put as many motors as it wants into the i5, but it won't help. Power is determined by the battery. Unless you use expensive high discharge capacity batteries(which still give you little range), then a small battery won't give you power comparable to Tesla.�
Jan 16, 2014
vin5xxx I think Realist is just beside himself that his German cars are no longer the top of the food chain. His past claims have proven to be false and now he seems to be grasping at straws with no verifiable information.�
Jan 16, 2014
bonaire I am with Realist in that I closed out most of my short in the "gulch" period in the high 130s and low 140s. For a profit, which is always good.
one thing about wall street we need to watch. They make money both ways. They don't mind running it up and down through HFT. If you look at the trades real-time, you can watch it happen. When it gets overbought, they can work it back down and gain in each direction along with options trading.
Be careful out there. A market downturn overall can put a hurt on momentum stocks. INtel just took a hit on earnings. Not a lot of good earnings going on and we need to keep an eye on January jobs reports to see if the fluke of Dec jobs isn't a fluke. Could spurn a 5% correction. If TSLA turns around again, i will go long and play covered options off of it. It seems to be what the big boys are doing.�
Jan 16, 2014
anticitizen13.7 I don't think this i5 is going to work in the U.S. market.
A car that looks like a Honda Element and has adequate but not great engine power is going to sell poorly at 50k $US starting price. I've seen Honda mess up time and time again in the U.S. by releasing controversial looking cars with "adequate" performance. The Crosstour and 4th Generation Acura TL come to mind. Ugly and expensive, both models never reached sales expectations.
BMW makes a lot of good looking cars. Why can't they make an EV that looks like a 4-series coupe rather than a Honda Element?�
Jan 16, 2014
bonaire Honda would do great to electrify their hot selling CR-V.�
Jan 16, 2014
JRP3 The odd thing is a number of people are saying the Model S can't work in Germany because of the limited top speed, limited range, and lower level of luxury and features compared to other luxury performance cars, yet these same people think the i3 and upcoming i5 will be successful.�
Jan 16, 2014
purplewalt Agreed.
Makes no sense.
Cars that cost $45K to $50K had better have some driving punch and genuine range, or they will remain on the dealer's lots: unsold, or possibly being sold at a loss.
Once the Germans take their Black, Red and Gold colored lenses off, then they will see the overall qualities of the MS.�
Jan 17, 2014
SebastianR I agree there is a lot of BS arguments flying around. But then again keep in mind what the Model S competes with in Germany: The E-Class from Mercedes / A6 / 5 Series are typically bought as company cars and come with "unlimited use" fuel, service etc. to the ones who drive them. Not all that many cars in that class in Germany are sold to private individuals. So in that class you have a lot more (reckless?) drivers who don't care about costs and just want top speed, long range and bragging rights. Also a lot of companies have framework agreements with big car dealers / leasing providers. So a friend of mine wanted a Lexus but ended up with an Audi since there was a framework agreement with them. To break into that market will not go "gradually" but in increments if Tesla convinces major companies to include the Model S in their car schemes.
I think that individuals who are in that market are much more likely to switch to a Tesla.
The i3 is not a typical company car so there I see more ability to "gradually ease" into the market.
Having said all this: I notice also that a certain class of executives are now wanting a Tesla. And just like the iPhone found its way into business when it was all Blackberry, my suspicion is that if enough executives want it, the car will find its way into company car world, too.�
Jan 17, 2014
Realist Both the current i3 and the upcoming i5 are a lot cheaper than the Model S.
In germany the Tesla starts at 68.000 and the P85+ is 91.000 without nav, leather or fog lights. The i3 starts at 35.000 full quipped it�s 45.000. Regarding price the upcoming i5 should be much closer to Tesla�s Model E.
Both the i3 and i8 are sold out for 2014.
Indeed a lot of germans wear lenses in black,red and gold. But you color yourself with stars and stripes. The Ford F150 pick up is one of the most popular vehicles in the US. Here it�s VW Golf. That tells you quite a lot about both markets.
The decision to go long on the stock is simply without any emotion regarding the car. In fact the Model S was one of the most disappointing driving experiences I ever had. Comparing this car with a real performance car is ridiculous. The world above 65mph is very different.�
Jan 17, 2014
bonaire Realist,
In the US, people think a "rational" decision is to buy a gas-hungry pickup truck (Ford, Chevy, Dodge).
In Germany commuters like the Golf because it serves the purpose and the high fuel prices would make a truck a bad choice.
The USA is living with cheaper gasoline than diesel is part of this.
Also, German prices of fuel: Gasoline 1.562 Euro per litre and Diesel 1.347 Euro per litre
If we had lower diesel prices in the USA, I think small diesel would work. In my area, gasoline is 3.51 USD per gallon and 3.95 Diesel.
I think we are strapped in the USA. If those in charge went and added the type of taxes that exist in Europe, the economy would take a big hit. I also think our "cheap" gasoline is what will keep the EV adoption here slower than we will see in Europe and Asia. Tesla is on the verge of exporting more units produced than kept in-country. Q4 almost looks like a sales ratio of 1 to 1 exported:kept.�
Jan 17, 2014
chickensevil I know the "truck" argument all too well. I have had a talk with a "country boy" who works in my office, who is die hard about his truck.... here... in northern VA... what purpose do you, working a desk job, need a truck? He also has this imprinted picture of what a "hybrid/ev" looks like in his head and I got into a rather heated argument with him over this, until I found out he never even LOOKED at the Tesla before... I was like, well, here take a look. He ended up being like, well that actually looks really good!
Anyway, point is, changing people's ingrained perspectives on what they think they know is a challenge to everyone. I get the feeling that people in Germany are just buying the i3/i8 because it is BMW, talk about some SERIOUS brand loyalty over there. Because you complain about the performance holding back the Tesla... the i8 (costing far more than the Tesla) is not really all that great either. Especially for it's pricepoint, you would be better off getting something that runs on gas all the time for that same price.
I think we will see Tesla work to improve their high end performance (above 65mph/100kph) and that will help with their adoption in Germany, but right now that is really the only country that you are going to go into that would be driving "legally" at above those speeds. So overall it is a small market in the grand scheme of things.�
Jan 17, 2014
Robert.Boston Did your test vehicle include the new autobahn-tuned suspension that is now standard on German shipments?�
Jan 17, 2014
JRP3 Did it also include an open mind? I'm sure John Petersen would hate the S as well :wink:�
Jan 17, 2014
kenliles must be true;
Know a guy - went 110 through a concrete wall, live oak tree, and a fire- lived through sub 65 re-entry to say the same thing...�
Jan 20, 2014
NigelM I think you're being a little harsh. I kinda like the new Realist as we have more of a conversation going than it once was.
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It tells you that there is a huge rural market here in the U.S. where the German market is much more urban skewed. The real point relates to the market for an upscale, environmentally-friendly vehicle and what level of performance and perceived quality is acceptable. Clearly in the U.S. Tesla is winning that battle; whether that works the same way for the flag waving fans of Stuttgart and Munich remains to be seen.�
Jan 20, 2014
Atebit Let's see...weekend off-roading, hauling mulch or garden supplies to work on your yard, pulling a boat/jet ski, toting around an ATV or motorcycle, volunteering on weekends for church/community service. Or maybe just because he wants to drive a truck.
Talk about "ingrained attitudes". Agree 100% with the "more rural" USA comment. There may not be much four wheeling in Tyson's Corner, but there's plenty heading a little south off of 95.�
Jan 20, 2014
Realist Germany is one of the biggest markets for the so called executive saloon. It�s dominated by diesel engines with the engines offering up to 380hp.
You get an 310hp Audi A6 Avant with 650NM of torque (50 more than the P85+) and 1000km range starting at 65.000,-. The drivetrain is not as smooth as the Tesla�s, still it�s very nice to drive and the performance is massive. From an objective point of view it�s very much on par with the Tesla. But of course it is a Diesel and whereas in the US most people still think of Diesel being dirty and unrefined, here in Europe it�s the preferred choice most of the time.
I remember working in Hamburg for 3 months. From my home town this is more than 650km distance. Usually I left my home at 6 p.m and arrived in Hamburg always before midnight. Sometimes it took me less than 5 hours. The car was a 150hp Gold Diesel.
You cannot do this in an electric car.�
Jan 20, 2014
NigelM Diesel is dirty, but in continental Europe it's always been cheaper than gasoline. I'd argue that almost no-one would choose it for being "clean" but would choose it for being cheap.
True. I once drove my M5 from Munich to Dusseldorf in <4 hours but generally that's just not possible any more because of traffic volume and speed controls. These days I'm older and wiser and I'd happily do that trip with an EV and stop twice along the way, but if I was really under time pressure then I'd fly.
I suspect that neither of our generalizations based on personal experiences are pure representations of the market as a whole.�
Jan 20, 2014
qwk Peak torque or hp numbers don't mean much(just marketing). It's the area under the curve that matters. Guess which car wins that?�
Jan 20, 2014
rcc Realist - where did you personally find the performance lacking? Can you be specific? So far, all I can tell is that it's a disappointment to you. But I can't figure out why.
Reason I want to know is that you may have valid points about the performance or cost/performance of the S vs. say, a diesel. But I can't decide that until I understand what your problem with the car is. Second reason is that if your issues are valid, the next interesting question is how much of the rest of the world cares about those same issues the way you do? That will give us a better handle on projected worldwide demand.�
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