teslamotorclub: Daily TSLA Trading Charts part 1

On days where there's something to be learned from the TSLA trading chart, I'll be posting it here with my comments, looking for your opinions too.
�

Let's start with March 24, 2016- The Thursday before the Good Friday holiday. This is an example of a trading day when options expire and when there is low volume (see gold spikes on bottom). Things to notice:
* Pre-market trading gave little clue what was in store for the day.
* It looks like the market-makers didn't want TSLA to exceed 227.50 for the day. With low volume, look at how steady the stock price was once the tractor-beam latched on. For a volatile stock such as TSLA, you simply don't see flat trading unless someone is working to keep the trading flat.
�

Here's the April 12, 2016 daily chart to show why buying shares during the first hour of trading (amateur hour) may not be the best idea in the world.
�

Here's the April 15, 2016 chart. I see points of interest:
* For at least the third time during the week, the first hour of trading indicated the opposite of what the rest of the day's trading held.
* This was a Friday trading with options expiring. Notice how TSLA didn't rise much above 252.50 without being beaten back down, time and time again. Someone wanted TSLA to avoid breaking out much higher today. Although the Max Pain for the day was 240, the graph was pretty flat up to 250, before it started ascending. I think the Market-Maker tractor beam worked well at preventing breakouts until the final hour of trading when you can see the volume picked up. At this point the stock could not be held back and broke out for a close at 254.5. Thus, the tractor beam on Fridays does indeed have its limitations.

With TSLA indicating that it wanted to run higher today but was being artificially held back, I bought some calls and realized a gain for the day.
�

Today we saw typical Monday morning buying enthusiasm during the first hour of regular trading, followed by various downward spikes and recoveries. I usually suspect short selling in an attempt to cause some fear of falling prices when I see sharp sells, followed by recoveries. Notice how we're seeing a noon drop similar to the March 31 drop, which would be consistent with short selling during the low volume time of day to maximize the effect. About 3pm you can see that a hint of green appears and then the selling quickly brings us into the red, but just barely so. I see the trading from about 2pm until closing as attempts to keep TSLA in the red so that no one gets too positive and so that shorts can bide their time in hopes of bad news.

What's interesting is the lower stock price in after-hours trading. Normally, after-hours trading remains fairly close to the closing price. I suspect we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see what's up.
�

Market gets worried about bad Q1 financial number in ER. IMO, SP either goes nowhere or slightly goes down before we pass over the bad news in ER. So you can forget about TSLA in next two weeks
�

maoing said: ?

Market gets worried about bad Q1 financial number in ER. IMO, SP either goes nowhere or slightly goes down before we pass over the bad news in ER. So you can forget about TSLA in next two weeks
Click to expand...

Maybe you're right, but here's one possible scenario that could produce a much different effect. Many of us were waiting for the 325,000 Model 3 reservations number moment to come in before we sold shares and leaps. The number wasn't bad, it just wasn't far above expectations, and TSLA dropped quite a bit immediately afterwards. So, investors realize that something good is coming in 2016 (FCF, short-squeeze, etc.) and we want to be invested when the good stuff of 2016 starts happening, but many are waiting until after the Q1 ER to jump back in. My thought is that Q1 ER might be much like the 325,000 reservation reveal moment, except positive instead of negative, and TSLA may jump higher right after the ER. Here's why:

Model X deliveries were hurt because of the 3rd row of seats issue. We don't know exactly how many Model X vehicles weren't delivered because of the 3rd row issue, but it could be a fairly large number. Thus, we could learn at the ER that a good portion of the missing 1100 Model X vehicles will be delivered in Q2, thereby inflating the Q2 numbers. That is one scenario. If investors don't want to get burned by being late to make their move, you may see a higher number holding through the Q1 event than you might think.
�

For April 19, we see a reoccurring theme: a big plunge that peaks during the East Coast lunch hour. Today's news did not warrant any such overreaction. Because we're seeing a repeating trend that results in a somewhat lower TSLA price and discourages upward breakouts, I would think that the routine is being run by shorts rather than longs. If they sell shares in the morning to get the plunge going and then buy back after the selloff has peaked, they make money and are reloaded to try again the next day.
�

Can't edit the post above so I'm posting an updated version of chart to show something interesting.

Here's why you always want to use LIMIT when you buy or sell after hours. At 4:54pm someone sold 400 shares but didn't set a limit. Oops! Some lucky buyer picked up shares for $236.37.
�

Papafox said: ?

Can't edit the post above so I'm posting an updated version of chart to show something interesting.
View attachment 173079
Here's why you always want to use LIMIT when you buy or sell after hours. At 4:54pm someone sold 400 shares but didn't set a limit. Oops! Some lucky buyer picked up shares for $236.37.
Click to expand...

My broker (ETrade) won't let me place a market order for out-of-hours trading. The option simply doesn't exist.
�

Here's the May 2 daily chart. Notice again the deep dip just after the noon hour. Over the past month and a half, these deep mid-day dips have become rather common, something you might consider keeping in mind for buying or selling strategies.

�

Today we saw the usual dip that tends to peak during the noon hour, followed by the usual recovery, and then both the Wall Street Journal and CNBC let loose with mega-FUD, which reversed the upward trajectory and brought the stock price on a downward march for the remainder of the day.
�

Today the 1Q16 Earnings Report was released at the end of regular trading, and a conference call followed an hour and a half later. After about a $10 drop in value during normal trading, TSLA made up most of the drop and even traded in the green for part of the time. Notice that once again the bots got ahead of the market, this time on the up side, and TSLA momentarily traded at 240 for s short period. Last ER, TSLA dropped from the high $140s to $130something before turning higher and beginning a spectacular multi-month climb.

After hours trading indicates indecision by the market. It doesn't know whether to climb significantly due to word that 2020 production may double, or perhaps it should trade lower because TSLA once again missed their numbers in the ER. I suspect analyst adjustments to price targets will provide some guidance to the market in the near future.
�

This was the day the market questioned Musk's plan to move 500,000 vehicle production up by 2 years. This was also the day that SpaceX made a particularly-difficult night landing on the drone ship after deploying a large satellite into high orbit and thereby reentering the earth's atmosphere at double the normal speed.
�

Papafox said: ?

Can't edit the post above so I'm posting an updated version of chart to show something interesting.
View attachment 173079
Here's why you always want to use LIMIT when you buy or sell after hours. At 4:54pm someone sold 400 shares but didn't set a limit. Oops! Some lucky buyer picked up shares for $236.37.
Click to expand...

Does the opposite of this rule hold true as well? I often wondered if every day, at 4pm EST, I should place a buy order for 10% less than the close. 99.9% of the time it wouldn't work, but eventually I get lucky? Or get steamrolled because of some after hours black swan. But that is what we should all be doing, right?
�

I believe this is what a reversal in sentiment looks like. You can see the ferocious tug-of-war between bears and bulls early in the trading when volume is heavy. The price rises above 215 and pretty much stays there. Towards the end of the day you can see two dips, but by then volume is light and the power of the max pain number (220 for this Friday) took over and with TSLA in the tractor beam, the stock price closed very close to 215, which was the achievable number that most suited the needs of the market makers.

There's no guarantee where TSLA is going from here, but the fear of buying in has been tempered by a day in which TSLA closed up again.
�

austinEV said: ?

Does the opposite of this rule hold true as well? I often wondered if every day, at 4pm EST, I should place a buy order for 10% less than the close. 99.9% of the time it wouldn't work, but eventually I get lucky? Or get steamrolled because of some after hours black swan. But that is what we should all be doing, right?
Click to expand...

I think it would work. The negative of using that technique, of course, is if some news came out after hours that caused the SP to plunge, then you would be stuck with the purchase. Overall, I think the risks outweigh the rewards, since this type of trade happens fairly infrequently.
�

@Papafox, thanks for all the effort posting these charts and your thoughts on them. I bought some Jan. 18 300s yesterday (first-ever options trade for this long-term investor) and the 'mid-day dip' you have highlighted gave me the patience to wait and buy at the daily low. Very helpful.
�

EinSV said: ?

@Papafox, thanks for all the effort posting these charts and your thoughts on them. I bought some Jan. 18 300s yesterday (first-ever options trade for this long-term investor) and the 'mid-day dip' you have highlighted gave me the patience to wait and buy at the daily low. Very helpful.
Click to expand...

Glad to be of help. I bought some Jan18 calls as well yesterday. There are many potential positive catalysts between now and then, with substantial production of Model 3 being the largest. I'm in the camp that says we'll actually see Model 3 produced in volume during 2017.
�

Papafox said: ?

Glad to be of help. I bought some Jan18 calls as well yesterday. There are many potential positive catalysts between now and then, with substantial production of Model 3 being the largest. I'm in the camp that says we'll actually see Model 3 produced in volume during 2017.
Click to expand...

I agree re the potential catalysts. Would have made a bigger bet if Jan19 calls were available -- a little extra time would be a nice hedge against launch hiccups -- but still thought it was worth a shot.
�

Today May 9 we saw a typical down day for TSLA trading over the past few months. The spike down took place maybe a half hour later than normal, about 1:00pm vs 12:30 pm, and we saw a secondary (but weaker) spike down around 2:00pm (see April 18 and 19 trading). Notice too that there was a dip in the first hour of trading, followed by a near recovery. Sometimes such a starting dip and recovery leads to an up day (Mar 24, Apr 15, May 6) and often it has led to down days (Apr 12, 19, 20).

The most likely explanations for the down trading are:
* FUD from Cramer
* Lower earnings projections from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley
* Lack of news regarding capital raise
�

Did someone on May 9 actually sell 320 shares for $190.74? Kinda looks that way. AustinEV, maybe your idea of setting up an after-hours buy request substantially below the stock price might snag one of these odd-ball trades.

It's a good reminder that you never want to buy or sell outside normal trading hours unless you're using a limit function.
�

Want to see bears and bulls in conflict? Here it is!

Bear's view:
* Solar City takes huge hit- Musk is vulnerable
* TSLA has been falling for the better part of 2 weeks now

Bull's view:
* Dow and NASDAQ both way up today
* Reports of X production issues resolved
* Tesla's 10-Q came out today- with a prediction of 50.000 vehicles produced in 2nd half 2016

Observations:
* pre-market continues to be a bad time to buy but a good time to sell
* Usually the post noon dip is the deepest but the one that followed went slightly deeper today
* The shorts really didn't want TSLA to go green today. Look at how it was knocked back down into the red after reaching the starting point (or nearly the 0 point) time and time again. With all the sharp reversals, shorts were clearly spending some money today to keep TSLA from having a green day on this very up day for the broader markets.
�

A $9 spread between high and low? Wow, this was the breakout that fizzled.
* The pre-market trading has almost become a reverse signal these days. Notice how this is one of the few days when TSLA was down in pre-market recently and yet this was a day with a big climb involved.
* Clearly, the market is nervous and watching for a breakout. Unfortunately, the 11th was a down day for both the Dow and the NASDAQ, but initially the broader markets didn't hold TSLA back from a breathtaking ascent. Unfortunately, the two indices continued down throughout the day, with the DOW losing 217 and NASDAQ losing 49. It was just too much of a drop for a breakout on no news to be sustained.
* The good news? Imagine what TSLA would have done on a day with positive NASDAQ and DOW.
�

I swear, people who buy stocks during the pre-market must be tired of the pre-market action being a contrarian indicator for the rest of the day, but the trend continues.

Conditions:
* No substantial news (an analyst from 1 smaller firm raised its target price)
* Nasdaq down 23 points for the day

Compare today's chart to the May 10 chart, and you can see a tactic used by the shorts: quickly dash the hopes of longs any time the price action brings TSLA into the green. The shorts can't stop a breakout like we had (for a while) yesterday, but they can nip a small venture into the green quickly so that the hopes of longs don't get too high. The shorts are surely hoping for bad news either on the macro level or for TSLA specifically to push SP down. Should Tesla announce attractive capital funding in the near term, though, the downtrend is over and the uptrend is launched. In fact, it'll be interesting to see what happens with TSLA when the NASDAQ is heading upward again. My guess? TSLA does a breakout.
�

I thought today could be the day for TSLA's breakout, and in the morning hours it looked promising, with TSLA pushing $211 and the NASDAQ up. Alas, the Nasdaq headed for lower levels in the afternoon hours and TSLA followed, but staying mostly in positive territory rather than sinking into the red as the NASDAQ did. And so TSLA's breakout must wait for a day with better support from broader markets.

Conditions:
* NASDAQ down 19
* DOW down 185

Of interest: Notice the high volume selling that took place around 1:30pm. This was likely a short's effort to induce fear by pulling TSLA well into the red, but hungry buyers immediately brought the price back into the green, which was followed by a tug-of-war before the longs prevailed.

�

Just want to say thank you to you for this thread. This is the real short term thread, but I like the other one just the same.

oh, and each day we get one day closer to the inevitable break-out.
�

Today was the day we had hoped to see TSLA make a break-out, since the broader markets were way up, but by noon the uptrend fizzled and we say a decline for most the day.

Conditions:
* Nasdaq up 57
* Dow up 175
* TSLA volume: unusually low

Two possible scenarios:
* We have seen days when the broader markets are way up but TSLA does not follow, and on such days the day traders are likely to shift money from TSLA to stocks that more-closely follow the broader indexes
* The market has taken a "show me" attitude and wants to see proof of execution or proof that a reasonable form of funding for the Model 3 production line exists before the stock gallops back upwards

The wild card:
After hours we learned that George Soros is buying TSLA shares. This development can both spook shorts and embolden longs. It'll be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.
�

Yes, TSLA is definitely showing a tendency to move towards a higher SP in after-hours trading following the George Soros news
�

Thanks for the charts! Very informative!

I was disappointed to see it drift to below 210 after that nice spike in the morning. But it's a trend that's been seen many times before.
So ne breakout to 220...
From 12th of April till just before ER we've had as well a similar situation of being capped in a narrow band, waiting, expecting. At the time it was around 250 and the RSI was still above 50. And there was "bad" news around the corner, price started dropping before the ER with people selling the news.
Being oversold now, with the situation improving (X being delivered in greater amount?), I think the odds are for an increase in SP.
�

Pretty simple story today: no real news, turns out Soros was not buying common stock. TSLA tracking broader market.
Conditions:
* Nasdaq down 53 (1.11%)
* TSLA down 1.74%
* As usual, pre-market traders guessed incorrectly

�

Papafox said: ?

View attachment 175886
Did someone on May 9 actually sell 320 shares for $190.74? Kinda looks that way. AustinEV, maybe your idea of setting up an after-hours buy request substantially below the stock price might snag one of these odd-ball trades.

It's a good reminder that you never want to buy or sell outside normal trading hours unless you're using a limit function.
Click to expand...

That wasn't my order at 190, but I just placed one. wish me luck (and don't place one for 191 or I will hunt you down... )
�

Dang, instead of putting in a buy order for 191 after hours, I wish I had put in a sell order at 230. Seriously, I'm going to try playing this game in the future to see if it is for real.
�

Papafox said: ?

View attachment 177068 Dang, instead of putting in a buy order for 191 after hours, I wish I had put in a sell order at 230. Seriously, I'm going to try playing this game in the future to see if it is for real.
Click to expand...

One could do both, right? Selling at 230 is a much better proposition than buying at 190 too. I mean you would be selling out of the mother of all after hours white swans, but that is really, really unlikely. A black swan is a real risk on the downside though.
�

are these charts from nasdaq.com? If so, I work for the company that makes these charts and you can get sharable images using our charts from technicianapp.com
�

Cap-Raise Day

Conditions:
* Goldman-Sachs announced a change from hold to buy in morning, which propelled TSLA to 215 before a slow decline began
* Right after market close, a $1.4 Billion equity raise was announced, along with a $600 Million sale of Musk shares in order to pay taxes on the options he was about to exercise.
* Phil LeBeau did a back-of-napkin calculation that equity raise was at about $208.81/share

The shares initially traded below the $208.81/share, but then climbed above it, indicating that the market regarded the cap raise as a net positive. We shall see how sentiment stands tomorrow.
�

Guessing today's price movements would have been mighty tough. The correct answer was: up, down, up, and up some more. The hint we received from yesterday's after-hours trading was that the stock traded at 211 after some gyrations, instead of the 208.81 that would have been the natural "when in doubt" number, based upon a back-of-the-napkin revenue per stock sold in the latest offering.

Although we saw some decline in SP going into the close, the SP has perked up a bit in after-hours trading, suggesting that there's higher stock prices ahead if the broader markets behave themselves.

Conditions:
* DOW down 91
* NASDAQ down 26
�

Holy Moly, look at that after-hours trading ; )
TSLA touched 220 and is approaching 219 in after-hours trading
�

Conditions:
* Dow up 65
* NASDAQ up 57
* Max pain at 220 with 1 month options closing
* Volume nearly 9 million shares (average is 5.45 million)

TSLA got off to a sluggish start, considering the enthusiastic broader markets, perhaps because traders moved money into stocks that are more-closely-tied to broader market movements. At day's end, however, TSLA moved up sharply to close at 220.28 in spite of the higher volume. Cheers for the MM tractor beam today.
�

@Papafox, Thanks! I kept staring at the chart wondering why the volume looked so low, then I saw the huge spike which changed the scaling on the chart! Glad you posted the volume numbers with the conditions.
�

GoTslaGo said: ?

@Papafox, Thanks! I kept staring at the chart wondering why the volume looked so low, then I saw the huge spike which changed the scaling on the chart! Glad you posted the volume numbers with the conditions.
Click to expand...

I get the volume from a phone app of mine. The "NLS volume" on the chart is always quite a bit lower than the real volume

The spike on the last 5/17 chart really compressed the rest of the day's trading. I wish I had a $230 sale order in during after hours that day!
�

Welcome back to the volatile world of TSLA

Conditions:
* DOW initially up but closed down 8
* NASDAQ initially up but closed down 3
* Volume 5.1M
* Some negative press about UAW eyeing Tesla for unionization

After hours:
* Some large trades (89,000 shares, etc.) showed on graph after hours but likely took place during normal hours instead. Unless two parties agreed to sell and buy shares at a specific price after hours, the size of transactions would not have gone through at these prices
* One seller didn't put in a limit and sold 100 shares at $210.00 after hours
�

Conditions:
* DOW up 1.2%
* NASDAQ up 2%
* TSLA up .78% in regular trading hours

Recently, we've seen TSLA trading with low correlation to the broader markets. On a big up day for the broader markets, traders are apparently favoring companies with a more direct influence by broader market movements. TSLA is establishing itself with a SP in the vicinity of the most recent equity raise and waiting for news of substance.
�

Thanks a lot for posting these Papafox! Quite educational.
�

Today was a very revealing day of trading

Conditions:
* DOW up 145 (.82%)
* NASDAQ up 33 (.70%)
* TSLA up 1.67 (.77%)
* TSLA Volume: 3.1M

I have seen days when the bulls and bears are having a tug-of-war, but instead I think we had shorts trying to do damage control with TSLA today to keep it from running higher than desired. Take a look at 11:08am when the price spiked above $220 on 22,000 shares bought that minute and instead of a continuation of the climb for a spell we instead saw a quick drop back down. Now look at the after hours trading and notice that whenever TSLA traded higher it was pulled right back down again. For example, look at the 6pm trade as TSLA went higher and then immediately went to an after-hours low before recovering. Methinks the shorts are at play here. My understanding is that short interest is up over the past period, which bodes well for SP appreciation potential in the months ahead.

Also, notice there's a dip right around opening bell today and yesterday. It could just be market dynamics, but it could also be an attempt by shorts to excite some fear in the investors through a quick sale at an influential time.
�

This is what a day looks like when the shorts aren't playing too many games and the longs are feeling bullish. Notice how less "spiky" the trading was today, compared with the previous 2 days. The catalyst for today's climb may have been the over-subscription of shares sold in Tesla's recent share sale. Such a positive response pours water on the short thesis that Tesla will run out of money before Model 3 is in volume production.

Conditions:
* DOW down 0.13%
* NASDAQ up 0.14%
* TSLA up 2.52% (5.54)
* Volume 4M shares

Notes: Anticipating an up day, I awoke at 3:30am Hawaii time to be ready to buy. Each of the previous up days included at least one crossing down into the red, and I waited for it. Dang if the sellers of the calls I wanted wouldn't sell at an attractive price during the dip, though! I eventually found another call worth buying, but by then TSLA had already increased some in value. Oh well, at least I'll give myself credit for trying to buy at the right time.

Notice the strong support for the higher SP in after hours trading.
�

I post the May 26 full after-hours trading here to illustrate a point. We see none of the volatility in aftermarket trading that we saw in the previous two days of after-hours, just a slow climb upwards. There's no guarantees about tomorrow, but bearish behavior is almost totally lacking in today's trading, and that's a good thing for the bulls.
�

@Papafox, Thanks again!

Just double checking, the NLS volume is 2.4M today, as it was yesterday. Since you posted yesterday's volume was around 4M, that means today's was around 4M too. Is that correct? (Avg=5M).

Edit:

Forget it! I just read the charts wrong! 4M today it is!
�

Hello chart experts,

I am a novice in charting. I think I am seeing inverse head-and-shoulder patter in the 1-yr chart, with the neck line slanting upwards. Any comments? Thanks.
�

TMSE said: ?

View attachment 178370 Hello chart experts,

I am a novice in charting. I think I am seeing inverse head-and-shoulder patter in the 1-yr chart, with the neck line slanting upwards. Any comments? Thanks.
Click to expand...

Hi TMSE and welcome to the forum!
We have one thread in the Tesla investor section called "TSLA Technical Analysis", and there are some bright people there who would be glad to comment on your interpretation. Please repost your comments and chart over there. Here's a link: TSLA Technical Analysis

My thread is mostly about recording daily fluctuations of TSLA and trying to draw some conclusions by looking at the daily trading under a microscope. It is based more upon familiarity with this stock than upon any formal method of evaluation.
�

Papafox said: ?

Hi TMSE and welcome to the forum!
We have one thread in the Tesla investor section called "TSLA Technical Analysis", and there are some bright people there who would be glad to comment on your interpretation. Please repost your comments and chart over there. Here's a link: TSLA Technical Analysis

My thread is mostly about recording daily fluctuations of TSLA and trying to draw some conclusions by looking at the daily trading under a microscope. It is based more upon familiarity with this stock than upon any formal method of evaluation.
Click to expand...

Thanks Papafox.
�

TMSE said: ?

View attachment 178370 Hello chart experts,

I am a novice in charting. I think I am seeing inverse head-and-shoulder patter in the 1-yr chart, with the neck line slanting upwards. Any comments? Thanks.
Click to expand...

I'd say Kilroy was present during these times.

Kilroy was here - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
�

sunhelm said: ?

I'd say Kilroy was present during these times.

Kilroy was here - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Click to expand...

Haha funny
�

sunhelm said: ?

I'd say Kilroy was present during these times.

Kilroy was here - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Click to expand...

Of course I had to have some fun with this concept over in the short-term trading thread. Nice eye, sunhelm.
�

During the past two weeks, the days when TSLA carried the most positive momentum into the close was on May 19, 20, and 26. Each of these positive days was met by a response from the bears/shorts. On May 20, we saw a moderate dip in pre-trading hours, but the market was too eager to pull TSLA up and shrugged it off. On May 23, the Monday after the May 20 trading, TSLA dipped into the red right after opening and lost $4.58. Then on May 27, the day after the stellar May 26 climb, TSLA dipped nearly $4 before recovering close to half that amount.

Interpretation: The shorts are a huge part of the trading environment for TSLA these days, and on days when the shorts are fearful that longs will string two really good up days in a row, there appears to be a conscious effort to stop that progress through short selling at critical times. The negative for the shorts is that they end up holding even more TSLA and the eventual squeeze will be all that more robust. When good news comes, there will be no holding this stock back. Shorts can merely slow down the inevitable until the news cycle turns positive again.

Conditions:
* Dow up 44 (0.25%)
* Nasdaq up 31 (0.65%)
* TSLA down 2.08 (0.92%)
* TSLA volume 3.6M

Seriously, take a look at the sharp downward spikes visible on this trading day following a really positive day when the broader markets are well in the green and there's little news of consequence. The question is: can we expect a similar response from the shorts after our next day of positive trading when TSLA carries substantial upward momentum into the close? What piece of information is needed to get the shorts to stop playing games and head for the exits?
�

One word: dividends
�

What we saw today looked to my eye like a serious attempt of the shorts at keeping TSLA from closing higher. The day began with a typical green in the amateur hour following a three-day weekend. Look at the sharpness of the downward stabs into the red, though. Fairly large sales would pull the SP down, then buying would bring TSLA back up into the green, only to be thrust back down with another selling spree, again and again. This is the bull vs. bear tug-of-war.

Conditions:
* Dow down 86
* NASDAQ up 14
* TSLA up 0.19 (only at the bell)
* Volume: 2.8M

As a special treat while we were waiting for the annual meeting to begin, someone managed to pay $236/share for a hundred shares after hours. Rats, I was so in anticipation of the meeting that I forgot to place a high sell order in today. Double-rats!

As you can see, the annual meeting didn't have much effect upon SP. Some positive things were mentioned about the gigafactory future production and the future of TE, though. Elon Musk is now focused on factory efficiency, seeing it as a fertile field for disruption, and so good things lay in store for investors in the long run when those inefficiencies come to fruition. The bears will perhaps look at the new referral program as a flag for a demand issue, and so tomorrow's trading is uncertain.
�

Conditions:
* DOW up 2
* NASDAQ up 4
* TSLA down 3.67
* TSLA Volume: 3M

Today was a typical down day for TSLA in the patterns we've been seeing for the past few weeks. Don't believe me? Check out the twins.

Here's May 27. Notice that all the major components of today's dip are present in the May27 dip.

Notice that we see the trading action contain a follow-through on the secondary dip. That follow-through was not present on some dips that occurred earlier in May. Notice the dip sees a preliminary dip, bottoms out before noon, sees a recovery high about 1:00pm, and then goes into a secondary dip about 2:00pm.

I suppose a day trader can take advantage of some of these repeating patterns but that is not the reason I publish this comparison. Rather, it is to suggest that there is some manipulation by short sellers to maximize the effect of their selling upon the closing SP of TSLA. These patterns aren't news driven, they haven't been common to TSLA over the long run, they are a recent occurrences.
�

Interesting day. We saw classic long vs short tug-of-war during the first hour and then after noon the SP started a nice climb back towards the green. I commented on the short-term trading thread that we ought to watch as see if the shorts play "whack a mole" by pushing the SP back into the red after it breaks into the green. Sure enough, we saw four whack a mole maneuvers before some long felt defeated and sold enough stock to get TSLA destined to close in the red today. Minutes after closing, a new analyst began covering TSLA with a $300 PT, and TSLA jumped back into the green after hours.

The good news? I saw today's trading as indicative of a desire by the market to bring TSLA higher but it being temporarily restrained by the "whack a mole" manipulations. I bought 2 calls in the final minutes of trading, right before the stock jumped up to $220+.
�

@Papafox, you're getting to know this stock as intimately as mama fox.
�

Johan said: ?

@Papafox, you're getting to know this stock as intimately as mama fox.
Click to expand...

Life is indeed complicated when you have an online mistress named TSLA.
�

I made a prediction in another thread that because I see evidence that longs want to ease TSLA higher now and shorts are willing to do some game playing to prevent the rise, we have reached the point where TSLA could go higher on a day without FUD and news if the broader markets behave themselves. I suggested that TSLA would start higher in pre-market or early morning trading, be pushed into the red by short selling, and would manage to break back into the green where it would close today. Well... the broader markets did not cooperate and so we saw something very interesting.

Conditions:
DOW down 0.18%
NASDAQ down 0.58%
TSLA up 0.01%

TSLA started off well in the green, above 221, but was pulled as expected into the red. For the majority of the day we had the whack a mole tournament of all whack a mole tournaments by the shorts. If you look carefully, you can count about 30 small excursions into the green or attempts to go green, which were met with immediate countermeasures. Seriously, do you think TSLA would trade within a band of about $0.50 most the day if no "managing" of the SP was taking place? I think not. I think we would have seen a gradual drift upward, but since the broader markets were lame today and no news of consequence came forward, TSLA investors lacked the enthusiasm to counter the containment effort. We saw a modest breakout during the final hour, but that was it.

The good news is that the story hasn't changed. TSLA investors still are showing a tendency towards pushing the SP higher. All it's going to take is a neutral day with the broader markets or some good news and up we go.Interestingly, a day with the DOW up 200 and NASDAQ up 60 is not a particularly good environment for TSLA because the stock is not known to trade in unison with the broader markets and traders have a tendency to move their money to more-reliable stocks in this regards on such days.
�

Over the past couple of weeks, we've seen several dips like this morning's and TSLA has been good at shrugging them off when we're below 220. Such was the case today. For a while you saw TSLA bouncing off 220 just as it had bounced off 219 on Friday, and I rather expected TSLA to close just below 220 because of the obvious effort being put in to "manage" TSLA SP. Alas, the longs pushed the stock up to 220.68 for the close, and I'm just delighted the longs prevailed. The ability for TSLA to bounce back from a deep opening dip and to overcome repeated attempts to hold a price is something I see as nicely bullish, particularly considering the increased volume today.

Conditions:
* Dow up 0.64%
* NASDAQ up 0.53%
* TSLA up 0.77%
* TSLA Volume: 5.3M
�

It looks like you have today's volume incorrectly high - I'm seeing 2.244 M shares. 5.3 M might be for SCTY?
�

MikeC said: ?

It looks like you have today's volume incorrectly high - I'm seeing 2.244 M shares. 5.3 M might be for SCTY?
Click to expand...

Thanks MikeC. You are right on both accounts.

Correction: TSLA Volume today: 2.244M shares
�

@Papafox, couldn't help notice how today's trend almost seemed reverse of previous days. Start down with gradual up, whereas many examples from before were opposite (up, then driven down). Short exhaustion? Beginning of a new trend?

Yes, I know volumes low.
�

GoTslaGo said: ?

@Papafox, couldn't help notice how today's trend almost seemed reverse of previous days. Start down with gradual up, whereas many examples from before were opposite (up, then driven down). Short exhaustion? Beginning of a new trend?

Yes, I know volumes low.
Click to expand...

I like to put myself in the shoes of a short who has a ton of money on the line with TSLA, who believes that bad news (macro or otherwise) may be not far down the trail, and would like to get TSLA descending in SP so that "the usual" descent takes place when there's a long absence of news. All he needs is to get the stock descending nicely using one means or another, longs get scared, and the situation snowballs from there (or at least he thinks). So, on Friday investors wanted to push TSLA up a bit, TSLA was up in pre-market trading this morning, the broader markets were up this morning, and the amateur hour of a Monday is usually a time for green as new investors had the weekend to make up their mind to get in. All four situations are bad for a short, so the shorts sell a large amount of TSLA on opening in an attempt to unnerve the longs instead of allowing the four positives to lead to a nice climb early in the day. The problem is that the longs aren't particularly inclined to be unnerved now. During the descent to below $150, the Model X had real problems in its ramp-up, we didn't know the demand for Model 3 or even whether it would be a weirdmobile, there was big fear in the macro world and it looked like TSLA might need to raise some capital in an environment not conducive to raising capital. All of that is changed now, and longs aren't panicking when TSLA has a big dip. Instead, they use the opportunity to buy. By bringing TSLA right back up into the green after its early morning dip, the longs made a statement. Further, since the shorts failed to hold the line at 220 today, which is a number with some psychological value, one needs to consider that the shorts are running out of options for game-playing. Consider this morning's dip to be a brave but unsuccessful cavalry charge by the shorts involving lots of men and resources. They were driven back and lacked the spirit to defend $220 as the longs relentlessly pushed to break above that number. Shorts have to be discouraged with today's trading even if the SP gains were fairly light.

Unless the Q2 delivery numbers are low, Q2 ER is disappointing, or something goes wrong with Tesla or the macro environment, the stock price is poised to head up because there's so few reasons for it to be heading down. One of the last hopes of the shorts is that Model 3 will cost a whole lot more than what Tesla figures, but Tesla actually did a good job of pricing Model S to give a 25%+ gross margin, and I suspect Tesla will be just as capable of tweaking the costs of Model 3 so that it yields a decent GM. The gigaparty could be the event that builds up the longs and sends the shorts into retreat in a big way, because if we see the gigafactory is on track for producing not only a suitable number of suitably-priced batteries for Model 3, but also batteries for Tesla Energy, then the longs are free to march forward with little resistance.

I believe the battle analogy for TSLA is an apt one because the stock is so difficult to assign a value to. So much of the movement of TSLA is based upon momentum. It's just like a battle where it's really hard to rally the troops when you're in retreat and the retreat occurs until a natural point of support or resistance is reached, at which time the battle lines are drawn anew. With about 30 million shares being traded by shorts, they match or exceed the number of shares being traded by longs on many days. Thus, you need to understand the mentality in both the short camp and in the long camp to predict where we go from here. News can indeed change the momentum, but for now I see the longs as confident the future looks good and the shorts wearing down from recent skirmishes.
�

Yea it seems like once there's a definitive direction of the price movement it kind of takes care of perpetuating itself for a while, maybe due to all the momentum trading so it makes sense that a lot is on the line to prevent that price movement from establishing itself.
�

Papafox said: ?

and the shorts wearing down from recent skirmishes
Click to expand...

Thanks Papafox. I'm really curious if these short battles result in a substantial reduction of short interest to corroborate the theory that shorts fear there are no more immediate reasons for the SP to go down and thus are covering at the dips. I think the next short interest numbers for 5/31 will be published this Friday?
�

sunhelm said: ?

Thanks Papafox. I'm really curious if these short battles result in a substantial reduction of short interest to corroborate the theory that shorts fear there are no more immediate reasons for the SP to go down and thus are covering at the dips. I think the next short interest numbers for 5/31 will be published this Friday?
Click to expand...

The game-playing by shorts normally allows them to "reload" their status. Once longs get scared or limits are triggered and the SP falls, game-playing shorts can take a profit by buying shares to close positions and then be set up to sell shares to re-enter with their game playing at higher stock prices. When the games don't produce the desired drop in SP, however, the shorts cannot make profits by buying to trim holdings a bit and they actually get heavier in TSLA then they like. This furthers the discomfort level for shorts, and brings them closer to a point where they start buying to minimize their exposure to a stock that can't be driven down any more. Of course we get to enjoy the benefits of that buying.

Prior to today's rout, I would guess there are still around 29 million short shares, but obviously with a 10 pt gain of SP, shorts are starting to head for the exits at last.
�

Looks like the shorts didn't do too well in containing the breakout ; ) Obviously the Ron Barron appearance set things off today, but some of us believe that the stock was on the verge of a breakout anyway because on Monday the shorts appeared to lose the ability to manage the SP. Congrats to all longs!

Conditions:
* Dow up 18 (0.1%)
* NASDAQ down 7 (0.14%)
* TSLA up 11.66 (5.3%)
* TSLA volume 6.2M shares
* Very bullish morning TV appearance by Ron Barons

Note that trading is staying strong in the after hours so far. If we leave the 50dma behind tomorrow, then the technical traders may jump in. I wouldn't be surprised to see a battle over the 50dma (close to today's closing price of 232.32) tomorrow morning. I was a little late setting the nets to catch oddball fish during today's after-hours trading. Notice that momentary excursion down to about 226 about 4:30pm. I have both a high sell and a low buy set now but I'm watching after-hours trading carefully to detect any large swings that might warrant moving my buy or sell limits.
�

Wow!
�

Today TSLA took off for the stratosphere right after opening and broke 240 before buyers had one of those "Did we really bid up the price $20 because of an optimistic few comments from some investor?" moments. I suspect a good amount of the early morning buying was from shorts exiting their positions. Longs took profits near and after the peak, which started a downhill run that reached its bottom close to the 50 dma and the starting point for the day's trading. At this point, longs who took profits at higher levels started buying back in, because the future looks bright, and we settled a bit over 235 today, which is still about $15 above where we were two days ago.

Notice the difference between a descent caused by longs taking profits and a descent orchestrated by short manipulations. In a manipulated descent, look at this chart from June 2 and see how much sharper the downstrokes are and how much recovery we see before the next downstroke. Granted, the scale of the June 2 movements shows much more detail because of a smaller overall price change, but you should still be able to see the characteristic marks of a manipulated descent vs. a "longs are selling" descent.

�

Papa, where are you?
�

I Missed June 9th's chart because I was out of town without a computer while chart was available.

Here's June 10th's:

Conditions:
DOW down 120 (0.67%
NASDAQ down 64 (1.29%)
TSLA down 10.57 (4.61%)
TSLA volume: 6.0 M shares
TSLA continued the slide started in final minutes of 6/9 trading caused by hyped up story of suspension problem on a Model S

The opinion of many of us TMC regulars is that the Model S in question was likely driven on questionable terrain in a part of country where salt is regularly applied to roads and the vehicle's ball joint had been missing its protective cap for some time. The operator's willingness to ignore the symptoms of a deteriorating ball joint is also an issue. The combination of these elements led to corrosion of the ball join and eventual failure. For these reasons, many of us believe that the threat to TSLA stock price has been overdone by the market because this is more of an exceptional case of usage rather than a widespread issue with Model S and a positive correction should be forthcoming. With the NASDAQ losing over 1% today, however, the market was in no mood today to turn positive.

Was the selling caused by longs jumping ship or shorts jumping in? Obviously it was a combination of the two, but looking at the shape of the trading, I see various sharp spikes down with immediate recoveries, and so I think at least part of the slide was caused by shorts reentering a TSLA position, which is rather surprising because this event is seen by longs as a gift to shorts who needed to exit their positions now that TSLA has demonstrated a propensity for running higher after the Ron Baron talk a few days ago.

Maximum Pain stood at 227 today and we saw no evidence that the market makers influenced SP during the final hour. Max pain for next week presently stands at 227 as well, suggesting that the market sees this recent dip as perhaps a short-term issue rather than a prolonged readjustment to stock price.

The wide swings in after hours price suggests either than the story is still misunderstood by a large part of the trading public or that the after-close dip we saw within an hour of close was a shorts-induced drop that has since been countered by longs buying back in. Continued improvement of after hours trading price would be a bullish indication regarding the shifting views of the suspension issue and with a weekend ahead, there will be time for the controversy to further be sorted out and (I believe) the general trading public reaching opinions more in line with those reached by TMC investor forum members.

Edit: at 4:23pm Pacific time, Elon tweeted that NHTSA found no safety concern with the Model S. After that tweet, TSLA recovered quickly to about 221, about $4 highter than the after-hours low. This sharp upturn in after-hours SP, coupled with an entire weekend to get the word out, bodes well for Monday's trading.

OK, I had to add this chart because it is what I call a "staged ending". TSLA recovered quickly to 221 and then suddenly stopped the climb. Then, in the final minutes of trading it descended first to 220.50 and then finally to 219.56. Now, there's no reason in this world for the stock price to suddenly reverse course after Elon's tweet(s). Rather than this being longs trying to get out at the end of the day, I believe it is shorts trying to make TSLA look like it had less of an after-hours recovery as we go into the weekend.

Enjoy your weekend. Monday should be a good day for us ; )
�

TSLA took off like a race horse out of the gate this morning but soon lost momentum and settled for a slight loss on the day. Looking at the trading ups and downs, I suspect the vast majority was normal trading versus manipulative selling by the shorts because we don't see much of the deep downward stabs followed by quick near-recoveries that you see in manipulations. From noon until end of trading we do see some back and forth trading, but it is not so pronounced as to confirm manipulative strategies. Rather, the generally downward trajectory after 11am, interspersed with a typical number and degree of peaks, is pretty normal trading when a stock is retreating. Macro fears, perhaps related to Brexit, likely account for today's decline, when compounded with the unwillingness of most media sources to contradict their earlier stories about the Tesla suspension problem and the so called cover-up. The good news is the suspension story will soon fade and the emerging story of Tesla's impressive production gains should take over fairly soon. We should consider ourselves lucky to have seen both the likely conclusion of the suspension story (no NHTSA investigation) and come upon evidence of a strong production performance at Tesla before the majority of the market has gained this knowledge.

Conditions:
* DOW down: 133 (0.74%)
* NASDAQ down: 46 (0.94%)
* TSLA down: 0.92 (0.42%)
* TSLA volume: 4.2M
* A lack of news stories in the broader media over the weekend revealing the fraudulent NHTSA filings which led to the HNTSA inquiry.

Note: The bump into the green in early after-hours trading was related to a very few number of shares and is likely the correction for information not published during the normal hours of trading.
�

Here is the chart of the last 5 days. You can clearly see the last hour drop at June 9th, after the suspension story.
�

Thanks Wenche for the 5 day chart. Yes, the suspension story really took TSLA lower in the final minutes of 6/9 trading.

I'm using a different chart today because the regular chart became too distorted once an error sale of 236 popped up in after-hours trading. The SP quickly returned to 215 minutes later.

TSLA again headed higher in early morning trading, but, as with yesterday, it was pulled lower by macros. I see the trading between opening and about 11:30am as pretty typical ups and downs, but take a look after 11:30am and you will see lots of downward jabs that are very quickly met by recoveries or near recoveries (signals shorts trying to manipulate price to me). Why 11:30 am as the beginning of the jabs? That's because the NASDAQ started recovering about then. Check out this chart of NASDAQ today:

After 13:30 we see downward runs that aren't met by immediate near-recoveries, which I believe are the results of some of the FUD that came out in the afternoon hours. In other words, the FUD, not short-selling lowered the price during this time. Also, see how the volume picked up after 13:30 as the FUD started hitting media outlets. Notice too that the downward jabs met by immediate recoveries continued as TSLA started a recovery in the final hour. So... poor macros got TSLA heading down after its early morning climb, then downward jabs of short-selling were needed to stabilize TSLA in the red, and even as the FUD drove TSLA lower in the afternoon, the bouts of short-selling apparently resumed with the downward jabs in an effort to depress TSLA as much as possible as the NASDAQ nearly recovered.

Conditions:
* DOW down:58 (0.33%)
* NASDAQ down: 5 (0.10%)
* TSLA down: 2.91 (1.34%)
* TSLA volume: 3.6M

What I see with TSLA at the moment is a real war between longs and shorts. Every morning now the longs try to push TSLA higher. I think the smarter shorts see the release of Q2 numbers as being an event they wish to sell prior to and they're trying to gain as much advantage as possible prior to their exits. What is real and working in their benefit is the negative macro environment. Most everything else they put forth is illusion. On the other hand, TSLA has amazing demand waiting for Model 3, it is focused on the manufacturing side of things, is turning out over 2000 Model S and Model X vehicles a week now, and has its expansion financing in place. So, it's basically a battle between illusions of negativity versus actual positive developments at TSLA, and the shorts see the current macro negativity as their window of opportunity for trying to drive the stock price further down before they have to bail as the real numbers start getting positive from Tesla.
�

Here's an interesting example of managing stock price. For much of today, the macro environment was good, and TSLA finally worked itself higher, but the climb was slower than it would otherwise have been because of short-selling efforts at several key price points. When the climb reached 218 it leveled off into micro ups and downs until it blasted through and then it met similar resistance at 219, where it traded sideways. Thus, the climb looked more like stairsteps than a sloping hill. After TSLA peaked, it started working its way down (partly through profit-taking but mostly through a decline in NASDAQ from 2:00pm through 2:20pm) as the Fed's decision had still to be released. Look at about 2:20pm, though as TSLA appeared ready to head back up and the shorts "managed" the SP at 219, waiting for the results of the Fed meeting. Not convinced? Look at the NASDAQ chart for 2:20pm through about 3:30pm, as it is rising again but TSLA is "managed" at 219.

Check out the NASDAQ chart:

At about 3:40pm, the market announced that it was unhappy by dropping quickly. At this point, the TSLA shorts had nothing much to do but watch the SP be pulled down by the broader market. The fall of TSLA wasn't as steep as the broader market, though, so I suspect some of the manipulative shorts bought some TSLA back at day's end to reduce their holdings and "reload" so they're ready to play the game again.

Consider how well such a strategy works for the smarter shorts. They wait until the stock has gone up a bit, they start short-selling to reduce the climb, they may even sell more to define the summit (TSLA today had two peaks trying to press through 222) and then when the stock price settles later in the day through profit-taking or through other mechanisms such as broader market forces, these shorts can close at least some of the day's short positions at a profit. They're both protecting their core short positions in TSLA and making money on the protection mechanism on days such as today.

The good news for longs is:
1) Any time there's manipulation to keep TSLA from climbing, it means there's people out there willing to bid TSLA higher and they'll get their chance in due time
2) Shorts are likely to only put out the effort to protect their core short positions if they feel those core short positions will pay off. When a threat such as Q2 delivery number release approaches, the smarter shorts will liquidate their positions and the SP would rise prior to such an event. Once TSLA releases hard numbers to show that it is financially on track, fear hits shortsville, and we could see quite nice stock appreciation.
�

I like reality checks, and so anytime I say "here's a way these guys are making money" I like to see if there's a way to make money the same way myself and put my money where my mouth is. Once you start trading your own money, you typically realize it isn't as easy as you thought. One cannot simply buy at the low at the end of a day and then sell at the high of the next day, because Day 1 and Day 2 can be completely different in terms of news, macro environment, etc. Could I buy 100 shares of stock for trading and then sell in the middle of the day when the price has crested and then buy back in towards the end of the day on a day when shares have peaked and then descended again? Neither of my brokerages allow day trading with purchases and sales of the same security same day, and then there's the issue of wash sales, etc. Nor do I have enough shares to buy or sell to influence the market, as I suspect some short-sellers are doing. I suppose exercising some influence on the market is key, and without that advantage I'd just be another day trader rolling the dice.
�

June 15 Conditions:
* DOW down 35 (0.20%)
* NASDAQ down 9 (0.18%)
* TSLA up 2.74 (1.27%)
* TSLA volume 2.9M
�

Ho hum. TSLA trading followed the broader indexes today, very close to the DOW initially during the depressed morning hours and then more resembling the NASDAQ as the DOW entered positive territory.

Conditions:
* DOW up 93 (0.53% )
* NASDAQ up 10 (0.21%)
* TSLA up 0.23 (0.11%)
* TSLA volume 2.4M shares

* News: VW announced intentions of EV manufacturing at a future date. This announcement follows another this week by Germany of intentions to require vehicles sold in 2030 and after to be EVs. Such a decision by Germany, together with EV incentives, helps to derisk the transition by German auto manufacturers to EV production.
�

Papafox said: ?

View attachment 181122
Ho hum. TSLA trading followed the broader indexes today, very close to the DOW initially during the depressed morning hours and then more resembling the NASDAQ as the DOW entered positive territory.

Conditions:
* DOW up 93 (0.53% )
* NASDAQ up 10 (0.21%)
* TSLA up 0.23 (0.11%)
* TSLA volume 2.4M shares

* News: VW announced intentions of EV manufacturing at a future date. This announcement follows another this week by Germany of intentions to require vehicles sold in 2030 and after to be EVs. Such a decision by Germany, together with EV incentives, helps to derisk the transition by German auto manufacturers to EV production.
Click to expand...

�

Papafox said: ?

I like reality checks, and so anytime I say "here's a way these guys are making money" I like to see if there's a way to make money the same way myself and put my money where my mouth is. Once you start trading your own money, you typically realize it isn't as easy as you thought. One cannot simply buy at the low at the end of a day and then sell at the high of the next day, because Day 1 and Day 2 can be completely different in terms of news, macro environment, etc. Could I buy 100 shares of stock for trading and then sell in the middle of the day when the price has crested and then buy back in towards the end of the day on a day when shares have peaked and then descended again? Neither of my brokerages allow day trading with purchases and sales of the same security same day, and then there's the issue of wash sales, etc. Nor do I have enough shares to buy or sell to influence the market, as I suspect some short-sellers are doing. I suppose exercising some influence on the market is key, and without that advantage I'd just be another day trader rolling the dice.
Click to expand...

Thank you for keeping daily trading charts updates. Your comments are also very appreciated. I wish you would share your theories in "trading strategies tread". I would love some discussion about this.
�

Wenche said: ?

Thank you for keeping daily trading charts updates. Your comments are also very appreciated. I wish you would share your theories in "trading strategies tread". I would love some discussion about this.
Click to expand...

Wenche, I am not shy about telling if I am optimistic or pessimistic on this daily trading thread. For the sake of ease, I will probably keep my postings here. Wishing you well with your trading!

My trading strategy these days is pretty simple. I have shares of TSLA, and I have quite a few deep in the money leaps. Over the past few months I have been moving many of my deep ITM Jan17 leaps to similar deep ITM Jan18 leaps because there's little time value required when you are in so deep. I have a few Jan18 270s and 300s because I think they'll easily pay off by then, but for the most part I trade in deep ITM leaps so that I can move them forward year after year, if needed until I get a significant payoff. As the stock price starts reaching levels where I think it is no longer undervalued, I start selling calls and turning the money into shares so that I am not nearly so leveraged when the inevitable peak and descent comes along. Sometimes I will buy shorter-term calls when I am feeling particularly confident about the positive outcome of an event, but this is not often. For the most part, short-term trading is just too unpredictable in my eyes most of the time, but the long-term prospects for Tesla look more and more solid as we move forward. I am very confident in Tesla's long-term prospects and its long-term value to shareholders.
�

Can you explain what J18 and the like are?
�

3Victoria said: ?

Can you explain what J18 and the like are?
Click to expand...

I'll go over to the trading strategies thread and show what I do.
�

Ours is not to reason why;
ours is but to buy low and sell high.
--
�

Here's the chart from a very interesting trading day. Explanation to follow in another post.

Conditions:
* DOW down 58 (0.33%)
* NASDAQ down 45 (0.92%)
* TSLA down 2.46 (1.13%)
* TSLA volume 3.1M shares
* This story said that an unusually high number of Jun17 2016 215 strike puts were traded on 6/16
�

Here's a view of today's NASDAQ trading on a somewhat exaggerated scale to offer some insight into today's TSLA trading. The NASDAQ traded highest during the first hour, and it was also the first hour of the day when TSLA was trading in the green. Then the NASDAQ descended further into the red and kind of stabilized there while TSLA flirted between red and green for most the day. So far- no surprises, TSLA was following overall NASDAQ trends but doing better than the index.

Then an interesting fact was pointed out in this article: a surprisingly large number of TSLA options traded hands on Thursday with a particularly high number of Jun17 2016 215-strike puts being traded. You had to wonder why someone was buying so many 215 puts when after noon on Thursday a descent below 215 looked pretty unlikely. Then about 3pm we saw TSLA descend steeply towards 215, then it broke below, came back above, broke below, recovered and then lost the ability to penetrate this support level.

The big question is who was doing the selling to bring TSLA down in the last hour? There really was no news to justify longs doing it. One very knowledgeable forum member suggested market makers (but the max-pain level was 222.5 for today). My theory is the people who bought the 215 puts were at the helm of this afternoon's short selling because they had the most to gain.

The problem with blaming movements of TSLA on mischievous shorts is that it costs a lot of money to steer TSLA, even on a relatively light trading day. During one of the deepest selling stabs, the TSLA chart above shows over 18,000 shares sold that minute. Looking at other selling-sprees that influenced the stock price, I saw at least 5,000 shares involved. I'm thinking it would take at least ten stabs to get a really good sink going that could take TSLA down 3 points (unless stop-losses allowed the longs to help out). Multiply 10 x 8,000 shares of a typical manipulative stab x $215 share price and the funds needed to get something going is about $17.2 Million. Of course shorts don't actually fork out $17 million to play this game, they borrow the shares, but still the amount of money one needs to have available to play this game must be immense.

Tesla will soon enough announce good news and the stock will rise, there will be no holding it back on good news. On days like today, though, I see TSLA performing better than the broader markets and then suddenly, with no news out there, the stock plunges for no apparent reason and closes with a bigger percentage loss than the NASDAQ.

Let me go a step further. I've seen FUD attacks that were very transparent and yet the stock quickly descended afterwards. Was that particular descent really caused by the FUD, or might the two be timed so that the FUD hid the fact that the drop was caused by manipulative short-selling? We'll never know. I do have a wild theory about today's plunge, however. The plunge might have looked reasonable if it followed a FUD piece in the media, but perhaps the individual that would release the FUD got gunshy after the article came out about an abnormal number of 215-strike TSLA puts being traded and that these puts were good for only one more day. Maybe he didn't like the thought of a SEC investigation. Without the FUD, the plunge looks pretty clearly manipulative.

Manipulation remains the most reasonable explanation in my eyes at such times, but I certainly invite your alternate explanations.
�

Thanks for the edit (last three paragraphs). I stepped away from your original post and thought the same thing! Glad you put it down with your edit.

The only other explanation I can think of is, could it be some type of computer algorithm/high speed trading strategy? Given the volume of the trade and short term nature, the profit per share must be tiny but presumably made up in volume. Sounds like what I have heard some algorithms and high speed systems supposedly work. I just don't know if they work with puts/calls since these are agreed upon contracts not direct trades.

I still think it's your "wild (not so wild) theory" at play. Let me add to it, maybe original put followed by high speed trading algorithm to drive the price down.... Wonder if that can work? Wonder what triggers SEC investigations?

PS--

I'm probably totally wrong in the second paragraph, especially pricing, but taking a wild stab for alternative explanations.
�

GoTslaGo said: ?

Thanks for the edit (last three paragraphs). I stepped away from your original post and thought the same thing! Glad you put it down with your edit.

The only other explanation I can think of is, could it be some type of computer algorithm/high speed trading strategy? Given the volume of the trade and short term nature, the profit per share must be tiny but presumably made up in volume. Sounds like what I have heard some algorithms and high speed systems supposedly work. I just don't know if they work with puts/calls since these are agreed upon contracts not direct trades.

I still think it's your "wild (not so wild) theory" at play. Let me add to it, maybe original put followed by high speed trading algorithm to drive the price down.... Wonder if that can work? Wonder what triggers SEC investigations?

PS--

I'm probably totally wrong in the second paragraph, especially pricing, but taking a wild stab for alternative explanations.
Click to expand...

It's fun to speculate about such things, but in the end we'll never know for sure. Curt Renz has put forward a very plausible theory that we're just seeing a brokerage hourse or two with a 215 max pain deciding to manipulate TSLA in the final hour of a Friday in which lots of options come due. He may be right. Still, I see the three pushes below 215 as somewhat problematic for his explanation and I see the great quantity of 215-strike puts that were good for only a day and a half as being a mystery under that explanation as well.

What I do know is that when stock price is artificially lowered, it has a tendency to come back up pretty soon, and I also know that when the stock is trading at a strong support level such as 215, we're likely to see an upward movement on Monday morning if the macros and the FUD allow. For this reason I picked up a couple of calls at 215 today that are mostly for speculation and I hope to make a quick buck on them. We'll see.
�

Today we finally had a chance to see TSLA trading with a healthy macro environment and the results were quite positive. Both the DOW and the NASDAQ opened high in the morning and then had a slow drift-down to close positively but at less than half their early gains, and TSLA followed this general trajectory.
Conditions:
* DOW up 130 (0.73%)
* NASDAQ up 37 (0.77%)
* TSLA up 4.23 (1.96%)
* TSLA volume 3.56M shares
* Some positive news today included a somewhat more optimistic view of factory operations by analyst RBC and then afternoon mentions of possible China car production by Tesla.

BTW: I seldom trade short-term options, but I sold at 222 this morning the calls I bought on Friday's late afternoon low near 215 and took a nice profit. The combination of a manipulated low price on Friday afternoon, better macro outlook, and the probability of a Monday morning bump in TSLA share prices led to the decision of when to buy and when to sell.
�

Here's the chart of Monday's trading including all after-hours trading. While regular trading closed at 219.70, the after-market trading closed at 220.48, about $0.75 higher. Cut loose from the pull of the broader markets, TSLA drifted upwards a fair amount after hours, and it's my belief such an upward drift is a mildly bullish signal for the next day's trading, absent news and macro effects. For some reason, the following pre-market trading is typically less useful in predicting the coming day's performance.
�

For that kind of short term trade (Friday to Monday), what strike price makes the most sense?
�

dakh said: ?

For that kind of short term trade (Friday to Monday), what strike price makes the most sense?
Click to expand...

I'm sure everyone has their theories on how best to do a weekend call. Most would probably buy weekly calls that expires the next Friday, because they are cheapest and have lots of leverage. For strike, I would go for something that is achievable during that time period. I actually was quite conservative and bought 2 Jul15 225 calls so that I had several ways of recouping my investment if the macros went south on Monday. It was a quick $500 profit and I am happy. Likely I could have made quite a bit more money if I hung onto them but I had a plan, I stuck with it, and it paid off.

That said, this was a particularly attractive weekend, sitting right on the support level of 215 after a manipulation with a likely catalyst 2 weeks down the road and a good chance of macros turning positive. I seldom bet money over a weekend.
�

Today was a great opportunity to watch TSLA trading in a near-neutral macro environment. TSLA carried some of the positive sentiments from yesterday into the pre-market as well as the first 45 minutes of trading. From there it hovered above and below 220 for most of the day. Notice the dip just prior to closing, in which it reached $0;.09 below the starting point at closing. Originally, the tug-of-war was for 220, as you can see that the stock crossed that level many times during the day. In low volume trading days such as today we have plenty of opportunity for shorts to mildly-influence stock price without much expense to keep the longs from getting too optimistic about TSLA quite yet.
Conditions:
* DOW up 25 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ up 7 (0.14%)
* TSLA down 0.09 (0.04%)
* TSLA volume 2.48M shares

I am guessing that in a neutral macro environment with no games played by shorts, TSLA would like to trade in the low 220s until we approach early July, when the Q2 delivery numbers will be released.
�

Papafox said: ?

I am guessing that in a neutral macro environment with no games played by shorts, TSLA would like to trade in the low 220s until we approach early July, when the Q2 delivery numbers will be released.
Click to expand...

Your prediction was overtaken by events, and it wasn't even the shorts who played the games... ;-)
�

Pap must be pleased he sold at 222
�

Here's the after-hours trading for your inspection.
* At some point after-hours, Telsa announced plans to acquire Solar City. Can you spot that moment on the chart?
�

Here's the day's pre-market and regular trading for TSLA the day after the intended Solar City acquisition was announced. The broader markets were slightly down today, with the Nasdaq peaking highest at about 11:15am, right about where TSLA peaked. Note the high volume.
Conditions:
* DOW down 49 (0.27%)
* NASDAQ down 10 (0.22%)
* TSLA down 23 (10.45%)
* TSLA volume 23.7M shares
TSLA ended the day at a price similar to what it began the normal trading. The biggest question is: who were the buyers and who were the sellers? Changes in short numbers might indicate later that shorts were buying to cover and longs were selling out of fear. Could have been the other way around, however, and we'll get an idea when the number of short shares held for this period are revealed. If shorts were locked out today from shorting, then that narrows the possibilities (could someone verify?).
�

Seems like shorts were definitely not locked out.

"Share lending data suggested short sellers were increasing their bets against both companies. Interest rates to borrow Tesla shares rose to 5 percent on Wednesday from 1.5 percent early in the day, according to S3 Partners, a financial analytics firm. Hardly any SolarCity shares were available for borrowing."

Behind Tesla carnage, signs of support for Musk's SolarCity deal
�

Papafox said: ?

View attachment 182188
Here's the day's pre-market and regular trading for TSLA the day after the intended Solar City acquisition was announced. The broader markets were slightly down today, with the Nasdaq peaking highest at about 11:15am, right about where TSLA peaked. Note the high volume.
Conditions:
* DOW down 49 (0.27%)
* NASDAQ down 10 (0.22%)
* TSLA down 23 (10.45%)
* TSLA volume 23.7M shares
TSLA ended the day at a price similar to what it began the normal trading. The biggest question is: who were the buyers and who were the sellers? Changes in short numbers might indicate later that shorts were buying to cover and longs were selling out of fear. Could have been the other way around, however, and we'll get an idea when the number of short shares held for this period are revealed. If shorts were locked out today from shorting, then that narrows the possibilities (could someone verify?).
Click to expand...

From the Tracking short interest thread, TSLA shares available to short reduced to 292,300 , down from 1,089,395 shares available on Monday from Fidelity. Shorts are more than doubling down!

Tracking short interest
�

First of all, thanks to Justdoit and sunhelm for their very useful contributions above.

Conditions:
DOW up 230 (1.29%)
NASDAQ up 77 (1.59%)
TSLA down 0.26 (0.13%)
TSLA volume 9.9M shares

Today was an opportunity to view TSLA trading on a day when short-selling is not allowed. Mostly we saw a nervous market, not sure yet if TSLA has bottomed out yet but also nervous about missing a big jump upward. Thus, the sharp movements both up and down. The good news from the posts above is that the apparent overreaction to the SCTY acquisition drop includes a large amount of short-sellers reentering TSLA shortly before apparent catalysts that take place in July. That downward pressure on SP will be reversed as the shorts buy to cover their positions (possibly in the near future).
�

Papafox said: ?

Today was an opportunity to view TSLA trading on a day when short-selling is not allowed. Mostly we saw a nervous market, not sure yet if TSLA has bottomed out yet but also nervous about missing a big jump upward. Thus, the sharp movements both up and down. The good news from the posts above is that the apparent overreaction to the SCTY acquisition drop includes a large amount of short-sellers reentering TSLA shortly before apparent catalysts that take place in July. That downward pressure on SP will be reversed as the shorts buy to cover their positions (possibly in the near future).
Click to expand...

Why wasn't short selling allowed today? Is that an adhoc decision made by stock exchanges in light of over 10% drop previous day? Or, is it an automatic backstop that gets triggered during heavy selling?
�

TMSE said: ?

Why wasn't short selling allowed today? Is that an adhoc decision made by stock exchanges in light of over 10% drop previous day? Or, is it an automatic backstop that gets triggered during heavy selling?
Click to expand...

TMSE, We saw the SEC short-trading "circuit-breaker" trip on Wednesday. It is an automatic feature, from what I understand, that imposes significant restrictions on short selling following a stock's drop of more than 10%. It is a protection to reduce the chances of short-sellers manipulating a stock significantly.
�

Are we sure the circuit breaker was tripped? I don't see it on the list http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=ShortSaleCircuitBreaker

Select "Historical Thresholds List" on the left to find the list for Wednesday.
ftp://ftp.nasdaqtrader.com/SymbolDirectory/regsho/
�

justdoit said: ?

Are we sure the circuit breaker was tripped? I don't see it on the list http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=ShortSaleCircuitBreaker

Select "Historical Thresholds List" on the left to find the list for Wednesday.
ftp://ftp.nasdaqtrader.com/SymbolDirectory/regsho/
Click to expand...

Check the day before
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/symdir/shorthalts/shorthalts20160623.txt
�

I seldom trade short-term options, but I sold at 222 this morning the calls I bought on Friday's late afternoon low near 215 and took a nice profit. [PappaFox]

So, fess up, how many points did you garner? If I had synched with you and also gotten the 7 points with a simple buy/sell (the only trade I know how to make) who would have come out ahead pre-tax?
--
�

I look forward to today's chart. I already see 13 minute macro opening morning rally which on SPY looks like a straight line.
�

Today was the day after Brexit and TSLA held up well compared to the general markets.
Conditions:
* DOW down 611 (3.38%)
* NASDAQ down 202 (4.12%)
* TSLA down 3.25 (1.65%)
* TSLA volume 6.5M shares
One clue in the morning to TSLA's resilience was a message on the shorts tracking thread that indicated the number of shares available to short had increased by about 500,000. This indicates that shorts were using Brexit to buy in and exit positions. To put this number in perspective, the number of shares available to short dropped from about a million to about a quarter of that amount of Wednesday, the first full day of trading after the SCTY acquisition plans were announced. It is essential to keep track of what the shorts are doing to explain what just happened and what may happen.

We now have just 5 days of trading before the 2Q delivery numbers are announced. I expect more shorts to close positions prior to that date.
�

Ulmo said: ?

I look forward to today's chart. I already see 13 minute macro opening morning rally which on SPY looks like a straight line.
Click to expand...

Yes, it is interesting how many moments of level trading we saw today. That observation creates a bit of a challenge to understand, though, if one equates level trading on a volatile day with manipulation. In general, we saw shorts buying more than they sold today, if you believe the numbers coming from the shorts tracking thread. If manipulation was indeed present, was it from some deep-pocketed longs hoping to keep TSLA reasonably stable today and keep from ruining the SCTY proposed merger? Was it longs buying in with no manipulation in mind but buying in at these great prices ahead of some potentially potent catalysts but buying in with a limit order to prevent their buying from driving up the cost of the shares too much? Overall, I see more incentive for longs to be responsible for sideways trading than shorts, given the apparent move toward the buy side for the short sellers today.
�

Here's the after-market trading for TSLA on Friday, June 24. Notice the significant drop after 6pm. It happened during the lowest-volume time of trading (when people have gone home for the weekend) and so it might be manipulation. It might be related to news announced around 6pm Eastern time. Don't know which case it is.
�

Papafox said: ?

View attachment 182582
Here's the after-market trading for TSLA on Friday, June 24. Notice the significant drop after 6pm. It happened during the lowest-volume time of trading (when people have gone home for the weekend) and so it might be manipulation. It might be related to news announced around 6pm Eastern time. Don't know which case it is.
Click to expand...

What was the news? I couldn't find anything noteworthy.
�

TMSE said: ?

What was the news? I couldn't find anything noteworthy.
Click to expand...

Neither could I. It may be generalized fear of Brexit effect on Monday, or it could be manipulation. For these reasons I wouldn't regard it as a signal.
�

Conditions:
DOW down 261 (1.50%)
NASDAQ down 119 (2.41%)
TSLA up 5.40 (2.80%)
TSLA volume 7.2M shares
SCTY up 1.89%

I've added SCTY performance to the conditions so that we can keep track to the relationship between TSLA and SCTY performance. A significant divergence could indicate doubts about the acquisition.

Looking at trading patterns, I see none of the sharp downward jabs followed immediately by near recoveries as we see when shorts look to be manipulating TSLA. My theory is that the smarter shorts are getting out of TSLA this week and won't be playing games that require them to increase their TSLA short holdings. With moderation of the hit on U.S. exchanges by Brexit fears, TSLA was able to stage an upturn in SP because it looks like Brexit will not be able to drag TSLA lower in the short run and smart shorts will be wanting to exit their TSLA positions prior to Friday, when Q2 delivery numbers may be released. Since there's no longer any short-term upside for being short (unless Tesla misses its delivery numbers, which is not likely), and there is plenty of short-term downside for being short TSLA, smarter shorts will be exiting this week and longs should join in the buying party because 1) there are few stocks performing positively right now and 2) positive catalysts are on the horizon.
�

Conditions:
* DOW up 289 (1.57%)
* NASDAQ up 97 (2.12%)
* TSLA up 3.24 (1.63%)
* TSLA volume 6M shares
* SCTY up 5%
* News: Argus downgraded TSLA from buy to hold because of SCTY proposal and Doug Kass ends TSLA short position

What I found most interesting about today's trading were the upward thrusts, particularly the one on opening. These tell me that shorts (and perhaps some longs) are worried about missing the train when TSLA heads upward. Should we get solidly positive news, such as a beat with 2Q deliveries, these nervous traders are likely to push TSLA quite a bit higher. Q2 numbers could be out as early as Friday.

The exit of Doug Kass from a TSLA short position is consistent with my theory that the smarter shorts will be closing their TSLA positions before the weekend.
�

wycolo said: ?

So, fess up, how many points did you garner? If I had synched with you and also gotten the 7 points with a simple buy/sell (the only trade I know how to make) who would have come out ahead pre-tax?
--
Click to expand...

Well, I spent slightly less than $1000 to buy two calls and sold a few days later for slightly less than $1500. As a percentage of investment I did quite well, but it'd be a whole lot easier for me to lose the entire investment if my timing with events such as Brexit had been different. If you had bought 200 shares of TSLA and then sold after the rise, you would have made $1400, nearly three times as much as I cleared, but your investment would need to have been more than 20 times as great as mine.
�

Today the march toward the Q2 delivery numbers release really got into gear. Hurrah! Trading followed the steady climb of the NASDAQ until an hour before closing and then did an exaggerated climb and dip compared to the broader market. Since TSLA seemed to be taking cues from the broader market I will be very interested to see what tomorrow brings.
Conditions:
* DOW up 285 (1.64%)
* NASDAQ up 87 (1.86%)
* TSLA up 8.40 (4.16%)
* TSLA volume 6M shares
* SCTY up 0.54 (2.27%)
One of the fascinating developments of the past few days is that shares of TSLA for short-selling have been decreasing as TSLA heads upward. As the smarter shorts cover their positions, they're apparently being more than replaced by shorts who don't know the story as well. In many ways, this could be a perfect storm brewing if the Q2 delivery numbers are good, the gigafactory opening reveals a fast-growing and profitable path for Tesla Energy, and we receive confirmation that battery manufacturing and other preparations for Model 3 are on track. Add a good Q2 ER and this could be a much better summer than we thought possible with some of the recent developments.
�

Today was the final guaranteed day to cover before Q2 delivery numbers are announced. For the first time in the recent history of TSLA, fidelity reported that there were zero shares of TSLA available for shorting. Thus, the ability to short this stock has pretty much dried up. The fall after hours was due to an inquiry into a fatal accident involving Tesla autopilot. About 5pm Telsa issued a statement, which brought the SP higher for a while and allowed the SP to stabilize above 206 for most of the day's remainder.

With record shorting of TSLA, the stock will be well-positioned for a nice run upwards after the 2Q delivery number release, should the company substantially beat estimates.

Conditions:
* DOW up 235 (1.33%)
* NASDAQ up 63 (1.33%)
* TSLA up 2.09 (0.99%)
* TSLA volume 4.8M shares
* SCTY down 0.36 (1.48%)
* Bloomberg and some other media outlets are reportedly only telling the negative facts of the autopilot accident and not mentioning the extenuating circumstances, such as a semi-truck that swung broadside across the highway. Reporting in such a fashion may cause TSLA to open in the red tomorrow.
�

teslamotorclub

Thứ Ba, 27 tháng 12, 2016

Daily TSLA Trading Charts part 1

Không có nhận xét nào:

Đăng nhận xét