teslamotorclub: Autopilot 2.0 part 1

For what it's worth this just dropped this afternoon and Technobuffalo claims it has an anonymous source in or close to Tesla:

"Tesla Autopilot 2.0 is coming this year" "

"A source close to Tesla Motors, on the condition of anonymity, has confirmed that Tesla Autopilot 2.0 is coming soon. Prototype Model S and Model X units are already operating in the wild sporting two forward facing cameras, something other outlets have reported on as well, which may indicate part of the new hardware to take advantage of Autopilot 2.0�s additional features.

�The dual camera system is capable of recognizing and reacting to stop signs and traffic lights with no driver input,� our source explained. Tesla�s autopilot currently needs a car in front of it in order to automatically slow down or stop. In other words, a Tesla can�t currently just stop itself at a light or a stop sign, which is why the added cameras may be required. If Autopilot 2.0 does indeed read and react to traffic lights and stop signs, it would bring Tesla�s cars closer to autonomous driving.

Tesla�s current test vehicles with Autopilot 2.0 are running �very beta� software that was likely the precursor to v8.0, our source explained."

Tesla Autopilot 2.0 is coming this year
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And the question is "when". I'm placing my order for a MS this week, and asking for delivery Sept. Will that be enough time to get the AP2 wiring harness? perhaps the full ap2?
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AZ Desert Driver said: ?

And the question is "when". I'm placing my order for a MS this week, and asking for delivery Sept. Will that be enough time to get the AP2 wiring harness? perhaps the full ap2?
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If Tesla continues to behave in the future like they always have in the past there will be no upgrade path. I do not think they have ever released a "wiring harness" that was later upgradeable to something else - but maybe I'm mistaken?

Maybe this time will be different, I dunno. If I were in your shoes and I had functional transportation I would definitely specify a late December/early January delivery, not September. We are *this* close - I think it's silly not to wait 90 more days for what is likely going to be a huge leap forward in functionality and safety that will pay dividends to you for years to come.

If anything, I believe the fatality will push Tesla to get the next generation out sooner rather than later. Tesla really needs some good news to get people past the Solar City/fatality/declining delivery mountain of negative press.
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Well... nerts.

If the article is accurate, then the question becomes:

Will there be a retrofit available for AP1.0 cars?

Elon did say that traffic light and stop sign reaction would be available within the year (six months ago), so that tracks. However, nobody followed up at the time to confirm that this new functionality would be delivered for cars with AP1.0.

This would of course explain why that clarification has not been forthcoming.

Nerts a second time.
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Nerts...isn't that the thing you used to insert grease into a ball joint?
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TaoJones said: ?

Will there be a retrofit available for AP1.0 cars?
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Normally I would say "no." On the other hand, we do know that EyeQ3 was designed to be capable of processing input from multiple cameras - I believe up to three cameras actually.

Given the fatality, I suppose it's possible that Tesla could be motivated to offer a minor retrofit offering some additional capability - a stereo camera perhaps? Trifocal camera? This wouldn't be full autonomy of course but it could add to the car's capabilities for sensing long range threats and add a wider angle to the front vision.

We now have two highly publicized autopilot accidents involving failure to see large objects blocking the forward path - the truck-in-the-lane collision in Europe and now the fatality in Florida. If there is a way to offer a cost effective upgrade perhaps Tesla will do it.

I am planning on trading in my current AP 1.0 car whenever full autonomy is available - but if Tesla told me tomorrow that for a few thousand dollars I could add a layer of additional accuracy in detecting stopped objects in front of the car then I would pony up the cash immediately.

Dunno - my guess is still no but anything's possible.
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I just ordered my car for a December 15th delivery. About how long prior to that date am I able to make a change to my config should AP 2.0 arrive?
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AZ Desert Driver said: ?

Nerts...isn't that the thing you used to insert grease into a ball joint?
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NEEEEEERRRRRRRDS! (Revenge of the Nerds voice)

Zoinks! (Scooby Doo/Shaggy voice)

Neither one of those either, eh?

calisnow said: ?

Normally I would say "no." On the other hand, we do know that EyeQ3 was designed to be capable of processing input from multiple cameras - I believe up to three cameras actually.

Given the fatality, I suppose it's possible that Tesla could be motivated to offer a minor retrofit offering some additional capability - a stereo camera perhaps? Trifocal camera? This wouldn't be full autonomy of course but it could add to the car's capabilities for sensing long range threats and add a wider angle to the front vision.

We now have two highly publicized autopilot accidents involving failure to see large objects blocking the forward path - the truck-in-the-lane collision in Europe and now the fatality in Florida. If there is a way to offer a cost effective upgrade perhaps Tesla will do it.

I am planning on trading in my current AP 1.0 car whenever full autonomy is available - but if Tesla told me tomorrow that for a few thousand dollars I could add a layer of additional accuracy in detecting stopped objects in front of the car then I would pony up the cash immediately.

Dunno - my guess is still no but anything's possible.
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Understood, and not to pick nerts, or zerks as the case may be, but at present we're at Level 2 of the 5 levels of vehicle autonomy. The traffic light and stop sign reaction thing might get us to Level 3, but that's it.

Still a looooong way to go before Elon's prognostication of summoning the chariot from coast to coast becomes a practical reality. As in "if I took better care of myself I might live long enough to see it" kinda long way - not as in this year or next.
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The current hardware is absolutely capable of recognizing and stopping at red lights/stop signs, per a presentation by MobilEye.

My gut feeling is that I don't trust a word in this article.
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Todd Burch said: ?

The current hardware is absolutely capable of recognizing and stopping at red lights/stop signs, per a presentation by MobilEye.

My gut feeling is that I don't trust a word in this article.
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Same here "Technobuffalo"? Unnamed sources? Double red flag BS meter going off. Also the 8.0 rumor wasn't tied to new sensor technology and also seemed imminent this new article says they are connected. It's all obviously speculation.
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theslimshadyist,Today at 2:50 PM said he ordered today with a Dec delivery. I will be ordering my MS very soon,, with a Dec delivery also .
So my question is - IF AP@ is announced in -say Sept- can one ask for an acceleration in production date?
The alternative is to pick a Sept delivery date, and then try to postpone it. I think the schedulers would hate that. Esp if one was trying to see Q3 production goals.
But Can one accelerate?
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I also have a model s order in with december delivery

My guess is that they won't announce anything until it is available. If they do, it could stall sales.

I'm tempted to push mine back until January, but the drop down box for delivery only shows me to December.
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RobInAZ said: ?

I also have a model s order in with december delivery

My guess is that they won't announce anything until it is available. If they do, it could stall sales.

I'm tempted to push mine back until January, but the drop down box for delivery only shows me to December.
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I've requested delivery next March specifically because it seems like we're on the cusp of some big enhancements.
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buckerine said: ?

I've requested delivery next March specifically because it seems like we're on the cusp of some big enhancements.
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Not sure you can keep up with or time the advances. How do think the current "refreshers" feel about AP 2.0 if it comes out in a few months or what about Luducrous upgrade people when Maximum Plaid comes out. 100 kWh, 120 kWh. All of those have been rumored to be in the works.
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Im not sure when this speculation fun becomes self mutilation torture. How soon is soon? How many iterations are enough before it is good enough? gaggghh. is it fun yet?
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calisnow said: ?

If Tesla continues to behave in the future like they always have in the past there will be no upgrade path. I do not think they have ever released a "wiring harness" that was later upgradeable to something else - but maybe I'm mistaken?

Maybe this time will be different, I dunno. If I were in your shoes and I had functional transportation I would definitely specify a late December/early January delivery, not September. We are *this* close - I think it's silly not to wait 90 more days for what is likely going to be a huge leap forward in functionality and safety that will pay dividends to you for years to come.

If anything, I believe the fatality will push Tesla to get the next generation out sooner rather than later. Tesla really needs some good news to get people past the Solar City/fatality/declining delivery mountain of negative press.
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I'm pretty sure the forum discussion about power folding mirror retrofit was talking about some cars being prewired for it and others not.

Also note that the S and X installations for the AP camera are not identical - the X is offset to one side, with an empty spot beside it. Not sure if this is significant - especially since the refresh S continues with the original installation.
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I've spent [wasted?] a lot of time trying to determine if Tesla will offer AP 2.0 retrofit ability to AP 1.0 cars, or even a subset of them. There are many forces at play here:

1) is it even possible? This depends heavily on pre-wiring and what sensors/cameras are going to be used for AP 2.0

2) will not providing AP 2.0 retrofit hurt model S resale value?: I can wrap my head around the fact that even though the Model3 offers similar base performance/range for half the price as the S, it might not hurt the S value too much. This holds true for comparing other manufactures who have a small car offering and a luxury big sedan equivalent. *However*, imagine buying a model S today with AP highway capabilities, and roughly 12 months from now, people start getting a model3 with near close fully autonomous functionality. for half the price!!

3) will providing a AP 2.0 retrofit hurt model S amount of sales next year? Tesla has a history of offering massive new features with every passing year. why upgrade if you can upgrade something so big as AP 2.0 on your current car? Though I'm sure there are lots of 2012-late2014 owners who may finally make the leap for AP 2.0. I don't think this would be a huge concern.

4) what happens if road safe regulations concludes that AP 1.0 'beta' is more dangerous than AP 2.0 on highways? I say highways because AP 1.0 and 2.0 will both presumably work on highways. Will Tesla be forced to disable AP 1.0 'beta mode' entirely for current cars? Limiting hardware by software locking is not new to Tesla but taking away features previously offered, would be. This could be lawsuit hell or require extremely expensive AP 2.0 retrofitting if Tesla didn't consider a path for retrofit ahead of time.

I feel for Tesla on this one. It doesn't sound like an easy decision. I'm too scared to gamble (buy now) in case 2.0 shocks us this Fall like 1.0 did in Fall of 2014.
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The current referral credit program ends soon...
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calisnow said: ?

If Tesla continues to behave in the future like they always have in the past there will be no upgrade path. I do not think they have ever released a "wiring harness" that was later upgradeable to something else - but maybe I'm mistaken?

Maybe this time will be different, I dunno. If I were in your shoes and I had functional transportation I would definitely specify a late December/early January delivery, not September. We are *this* close - I think it's silly not to wait 90 more days for what is likely going to be a huge leap forward in functionality and safety that will pay dividends to you for years to come.

If anything, I believe the fatality will push Tesla to get the next generation out sooner rather than later. Tesla really needs some good news to get people past the Solar City/fatality/declining delivery mountain of negative press.
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Not entirely true. When i ordered my car the power mirrors were not an option. After i ordered the car but before i took delivery the mirrors became available. When i later upgraded my car to get the power mirrors, my upgrade cost was less than what i paid when i upgraded my wife's older Model S, because my car had the wiring for the power mirrors pre-installed.
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jlund said: ?

I've spent [wasted?] a lot of time trying to determine if Tesla will offer AP 2.0 retrofit ability to AP 1.0 cars, or even a subset of them. There are many forces at play here:

1) is it even possible? This depends heavily on pre-wiring and what sensors/cameras are going to be used for AP 2.0

2) will not providing AP 2.0 retrofit hurt model S resale value?: I can wrap my head around the fact that even though the Model3 offers similar base performance/range for half the price as the S, it might not hurt the S value too much. This holds true for comparing other manufactures who have a small car offering and a luxury big sedan equivalent. *However*, imagine buying a model S today with AP highway capabilities, and roughly 12 months from now, people start getting a model3 with near close fully autonomous functionality. for half the price!!

3) will providing a AP 2.0 retrofit hurt model S amount of sales next year? Tesla has a history of offering massive new features with every passing year. why upgrade if you can upgrade something so big as AP 2.0 on your current car? Though I'm sure there are lots of 2012-late2014 owners who may finally make the leap for AP 2.0. I don't think this would be a huge concern.

4) what happens if road safe regulations concludes that AP 1.0 'beta' is more dangerous than AP 2.0 on highways? I say highways because AP 1.0 and 2.0 will both presumably work on highways. Will Tesla be forced to disable AP 1.0 'beta mode' entirely for current cars? Limiting hardware by software locking is not new to Tesla but taking away features previously offered, would be. This could be lawsuit hell or require extremely expensive AP 2.0 retrofitting if Tesla didn't consider a path for retrofit ahead of time.

I feel for Tesla on this one. It doesn't sound like an easy decision. I'm too scared to gamble (buy now) in case 2.0 shocks us this Fall like 1.0 did in Fall of 2014.
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If the only hardware difference in AP2 is an additional front camera, it's unfathomable to me that they would not offer a retrofit. The history that people are citing to argue a retrofit won't happen is meaningless because going from nothing to AP1 would have been a much different and larger beast -- new braking, drilling not just into bumpers but also welded panels, tearing up and rerunning all floor upholstery. Adding a second camera is not nearly so invasive. Less invasive, in fact, than other retrofits they have offered (parking sensors, rear jumpseats).
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Well, there could be degrees as well. For example, there have been multiple reports that, per MobilEye, traffic light and stop sign reaction is possible with AP1.0. On the other hand, we know that already a new tri-camera ships with new Model S as of a few months ago. Further, it is believed that full AP2.0 will include more cameras and sensors.

So - perhaps AP1.0 with an AP2.0 retrofit of some but not all new hardware will provide a subset of all of the new functionality.

There's a bit of blurring here as well between software and hardware. Any software enhancements between now and the full AP2.0 suite could well be referred to as AP1.5 or just firmware 8.0. So there's that. This year, we get the software mods, and next year or in 2018 as MobilEye suggests, AP2.0 (full system) is incorporated into production.
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robby said: ?

If the only hardware difference in AP2 is an additional front camera, it's unfathomable to me that they would not offer a retrofit. The history that people are citing to argue a retrofit won't happen is meaningless because going from nothing to AP1 would have been a much different and larger beast -- new braking, drilling not just into bumpers but also welded panels, tearing up and rerunning all floor upholstery. Adding a second camera is not nearly so invasive. Less invasive, in fact, than other retrofits they have offered (parking sensors, rear jumpseats).
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It depends if both, or all three, of the cameras fit in the hole in the windshield, or if a new windshield design will be necessary.
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TaoJones said: ?

Well, there could be degrees as well. For example, there have been multiple reports that, per MobilEye, traffic light and stop sign reaction is possible with AP1.0. On the other hand, we know that already a new tri-camera ships with new Model S as of a few months ago. Further, it is believed that full AP2.0 will include more cameras and sensors.

So - perhaps AP1.0 with an AP2.0 retrofit of some but not all new hardware will provide a subset of all of the new functionality.

There's a bit of blurring here as well between software and hardware. Any software enhancements between now and the full AP2.0 suite could well be referred to as AP1.5 or just firmware 8.0. So there's that. This year, we get the software mods, and next year or in 2018 as MobilEye suggests, AP2.0 (full system) is incorporated into production.
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I had never heard that there is a "tri-camera" in the refreshed cars before. Are you positive about that? Link?
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msnow said: ?

I had never heard that there is a "tri-camera" in the refreshed cars before. Are you positive about that? Link?
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Ordinarily, I let people do their own searching for verification, but 30 seconds in the search field did bring it up - so here ya go:

New Tesla Model S Has 2nd Triple Cam For Autopilot & Pedestrian Noise Unit

Edit: Ugh - to which evidently 9 more pages of posts have been added. Sifting through them now to see if there's anything new...

Edit part deux: By page 13, after meandering off in about 8 different directions, the consensus of the thread is that there are updated wiring schematics, but nobody has actually *looked* to see if current wiring matches the updated diagram(s). And, despite the updated design, nobody has seen one of the new cameras yet *in* a car. So this begs the question - will the upcoming software updates enable traffic light and stop sign reaction, or will Tesla elect to wait until hardware changes are incorporated into production?

Which brings us full circle back to: Will the changes necessary for traffic light and stop sign reaction be retrofittable to AP1.0 cars?

And so it goes.
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TaoJones said: ?

Ordinarily, I let people do their own searching for verification, but 30 seconds in the search field did bring it up - so here ya go:

New Tesla Model S Has 2nd Triple Cam For Autopilot & Pedestrian Noise Unit

Edit: Ugh - to which evidently 9 more pages of posts have been added. Sifting through them now to see if there's anything new...
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Yeah, I'm subscribed to that thread and even commented on it. Unless there's something new this was speculation based on some questionable schematic and speculation. I was looking for more of an authoritative source if you have one because as far as I can tell it's the same camera we have.
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msnow said: ?

Yeah, I'm subscribed to that thread and even commented on it. Unless there's something new this was speculation based on some questionable schematic and speculation. I was looking for more of an authoritative source if you have one because as far as I can tell it's the same camera we have.
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Same here - also added a second edit whilst it looks like our posts crossed. Normally, I like Zach's sourcing, but this time, *especially* because of recent events, I can absolutely understand why they would elect to defer additional AP functionality until the underlying hardware is updated. And *that* lessens the chance of a retrofit making sense , since at least for me, the triggers associated with buying a new Model S include exactly two things: AP2.0 and a 100+kW battery. The moment the 2nd of those two achievements is announced, my order gets placed.
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msnow said: ?

Not sure you can keep up with or time the advances. How do think the current "refreshers" feel about AP 2.0 if it comes out in a few months or what about Luducrous upgrade people when Maximum Plaid comes out. 100 kWh, 120 kWh. All of those have been rumored to be in the works.
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If one has been paying attention one can time AP 2.0 - or at least set a likelihood of an outer bound on it because of public hints with included timeframes dropped by Musk, JB and Mobileye's executives.
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calisnow said: ?

If one has been paying attention one can time AP 2.0 - or at least set a likelihood of an outer bound on it because of public hints with included timeframes dropped by Musk, JB and Mobileye's executives.
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What's your guess on timing?
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Elon Musk talking about Autopilot on 1.0 hardware in 2015: �This version of Autopilot does not take into account stop signs and red lights, but a future software update will.�

Source: Tesla�s Cars Now Drive Themselves, Kinda (Wired Magazine)

This is also reaffirmed when Wired discussed the launch, saying "a camera with image recognition capability to spot traffic signs and lights, as well as pedestrians."

Source: The Model D Is Tesla�s Most Powerful Car Ever, Plus Autopilot
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Soon!
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msnow said: ?

What's your guess on timing?
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My guess is December. So, given their problems with deadlines I'll wager February at the absolute latest for hardware to be shipping in cars - I make no prediction whatsoever on when software will be ready for said hardware. Reasoning is:

Musk - Says M3 reveal "part 2" is at the end of the year. He has said the interior will make more sense at that time (ie the center mount screen) and I *think* he said that the reveal is going to blow everyone away.

Musk - In an interview when asked if M3 will be self driving responded that he shouldn't answer that question now, then when pressed further said Tesla will do "the obvious thing."

JB - Said two relevant things: 1 - M3 will showcase Tesla's "next generation" technology. Is that necessarily AP? No - could be battery or drivetrain in addition to AP. 2 - JB has said S/X will continue to lead the way in technology and Tesla will not hold back for M3.

Mobileye - has been saying publicly for over a year that a multicamera EyeQ3 system is coming from an OEM in 2016. Their latest prediction for an 8 camera system is 2017 however.

Mobileye - Has also specifically said a multi-camera EyeQ3 system will ship in a car before EyeQ4. Each EyeQ3 was designed to handle multiple camera inputs and was also designed to network with other EyeQ3's. So Tesla does not have to wait for EyeQ4 to ship before going multi-camera in the S/X.

Given the above I condense the reasoning into:

Tesla will reveal more capable autopilot in part 2 of the M3 reveal, coming at the end of the year. Since Tesla does not want to Osborne the Model S they must simultaneously ship a more capable Autopilot in Model S/X, or even prior to the M3 reveal. The argument that Tesla will hold out the new autopilot for M3 is countered by JB's public statement that Tesla will not do that. As for whether a more capable system is possible we know that it is with currently available EyeQ3 SOC's.

This is how I arrive at an outer bounds end-of-2016 estimate for AP 2.0 hardware to ship in S/X. I don't predict it will be capable of full autonomy or even that the software will be ready.
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Finally, I think the negative AP publicity is going to put even more internal pressure to rapidly get hardware & software in the cars which can more reliably detect stopped objects.

What better way to beat politicians and regulators to the anti-autopilot punch and shut up the media than to iterate as fast as possible and show the world that these particular corner cases won't happen again? I wouldn't be surprised if Musk has moved the internal deadlines forward.

The regulators can't act immediately even if they want to - if Tesla can beat them to it they can appear to be on top of the situation.
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calisnow said: ?

Finally, I think the negative AP publicity is going to put even more internal pressure to rapidly get hardware & software in the cars which can more reliably detect stopped objects.

What better way to beat politicians and regulators to the anti-autopilot punch and shut up the media than to iterate as fast as possible and show the world that these particular corner cases won't happen again? I wouldn't be surprised if Musk has moved the internal deadlines forward.

The regulators can't act immediately even if they want to - if Tesla can beat them to it they can appear to be on top of the situation.
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If this can't be done with software, and it's a serious enough safety issue, it almost makes you wonder if they'd be more inclined to allow a retrofit. To be clear, I'm not suggesting free or allowing an upgrade path to full autonomy. But if it means, for example, giving the option to swap out a camera with better dynamic range to alleviate glare issues, it would be a great gesture to existing owners.
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calisnow said: ?

My guess is December. So, given their problems with deadlines I'll wager February at the absolute latest for hardware to be shipping in cars - I make no prediction whatsoever on when software will be ready for said hardware. Reasoning is:

Musk - Says M3 reveal "part 2" is at the end of the year. He has said the interior will make more sense at that time (ie the center mount screen) and I *think* he said that the reveal is going to blow everyone away.

Musk - In an interview when asked if M3 will be self driving responded that he shouldn't answer that question now, then when pressed further said Tesla will do "the obvious thing."

JB - Said two relevant things: 1 - M3 will showcase Tesla's "next generation" technology. Is that necessarily AP? No - could be battery or drivetrain in addition to AP. 2 - JB has said S/X will continue to lead the way in technology and Tesla will not hold back for M3.

Mobileye - has been saying publicly for over a year that a multicamera EyeQ3 system is coming from an OEM in 2016. Their latest prediction for an 8 camera system is 2017 however.

Mobileye - Has also specifically said a multi-camera EyeQ3 system will ship in a car before EyeQ4. Each EyeQ3 was designed to handle multiple camera inputs and was also designed to network with other EyeQ3's. So Tesla does not have to wait for EyeQ4 to ship before going multi-camera in the S/X.

Given the above I condense the reasoning into:

Tesla will reveal more capable autopilot in part 2 of the M3 reveal, coming at the end of the year. Since Tesla does not want to Osborne the Model S they must simultaneously ship a more capable Autopilot in Model S/X, or even prior to the M3 reveal. The argument that Tesla will hold out the new autopilot for M3 is countered by JB's public statement that Tesla will not do that. As for whether a more capable system is possible we know that it is with currently available EyeQ3 SOC's.

This is how I arrive at an outer bounds end-of-2016 estimate for AP 2.0 hardware to ship in S/X. I don't predict it will be capable of full autonomy or even that the software will be ready.
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Very reasonable estimates. Well done. And I've placed my order and scheduled a late Q1 2017 delivery for precisely this reason.
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AZ Desert Driver said: ?

And the question is "when". I'm placing my order for a MS this week, and asking for delivery Sept. Will that be enough time to get the AP2 wiring harness? perhaps the full ap2?
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Elon musk stated there would be an event dedicated to the autopilot at the end of the year. The current system is outdated (almost 2 years old). It will happen at EOY worst case scenario in my view.

I am waiting until the autopilot event at the end of the year that Elon Musk talked about.. Or I am waiting for the 3.. but I am not ordering the S with AP in its current form..
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MarkS22 said: ?

If this can't be done with software, and it's a serious enough safety issue, it almost makes you wonder if they'd be more inclined to allow a retrofit. To be clear, I'm not suggesting free or allowing an upgrade path to full autonomy. But if it means, for example, giving the option to swap out a camera with better dynamic range to alleviate glare issues, it would be a great gesture to existing owners.
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Boy that sure puts them in a tough decision scenario - the press will damn them if they do or if they don't.

Option 1 - No retrofit. Headline: "Tesla says for safe autopilot you must buy a new car."
Option 2 - Free retrofit. Headline: "Tesla tacitly acknowledges that their autopilot is dangerous. Why do they gamble with our lives?"
Option 3 - Charge for retrofit. Headline: "Tesla acknowledges their autopilot is dangerous, and makes customers pay to fix their sloppy engineering."
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I don't recall Elon mentioning an AP event at year end. Link?
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JeffreyY said: ?

I don't recall Elon mentioning an AP event at year end. Link?
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What did your review of his Twitter feed, his comments from quarterly meetings, a forum thread search, or a Google search produce in that regard?
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AZ Desert Driver said: ?

And the question is "when". I'm placing my order for a MS this week, and asking for delivery Sept. Will that be enough time to get the AP2 wiring harness? perhaps the full ap2?
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My MX order locks in tonight and rather than being excited, I am having a sleepless night wondering the same on what should I do with my order.

This article albeit rumor sure has put my thoughts in a disarray and given tesla's history of not retrofitting major upgrades it only makes sense to wait and watch.

Delaying the delivery might mean you lose Alliant's exceptional interest rate of 1.49% on qualifying credit (their current deal ends on 7/15).

We could also argue that since tesla has stopped RVG on all financing last week onwards, all cars that are currently coming off production line are already enabled with new hardware and thus tesla doesn't have to protect the resale value of these card as it knows they will hold value.
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AZ Desert Driver said: ?

And the question is "when". I'm placing my order for a MS this week, and asking for delivery Sept. Will that be enough time to get the AP2 wiring harness? perhaps the full ap2?
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We are thinking of upgrading our car soon as well. But I've been waiting for something official. I saw the story earlier today and thought maybe we could order and set delivery for October. If it comes out earlier we can push it up. Or we could push it back if it hasn't been released.

The one thing that I find interesting is the comment Tesla made regarding how many cars they will deliver in the second half of the year. Given that they haven't met their estimates for a while, it's interesting that they feel they can deliver 50,000 in 6 months. But if a new AP system was released, that might accelerate upgrades and new orders which will get them to that delivery mark.
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Anirudh Goel said: ?

We could also argue that since tesla has stopped RVG on all financing last week onwards, all cars that are currently coming off production line are already enabled with new hardware and thus tesla doesn't have to protect the resale value of these card as it knows they will hold value.
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Losing the RVG is puzzling to me. If Tesla is confident about the value of the cars then the rational move is to keep the guarantee in place since it provides a benefit to the consumer and also costs Tesla nothing. The only reason to remove the guarantee is if in fact the cars are not holding resale. I think.
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calisnow said: ?

Boy that sure puts them in a tough decision scenario - the press will damn them if they do or if they don't.

Option 1 - No retrofit. Headline: "Tesla says for safe autopilot you must buy a new car."
Option 2 - Free retrofit. Headline: "Tesla tacitly acknowledges that their autopilot is dangerous. Why do they gamble with our lives?"
Option 3 - Charge for retrofit. Headline: "Tesla acknowledges their autopilot is dangerous, and makes customers pay to fix their sloppy engineering."
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I hope for no option 1 for the many owners here! As a prospective owner I won't take any chances. You make a rational argument that option 1 may be unlikely though. I hope musk will clarify soon.

I think that option 1/ will open the case for lawsuits which IMO would be justifiable if AP in its current form happens to be unsafe, a claim which by the way many owners made in this forum before the fatal crash from last week was even disclosed.

My 2 cents. Thanks to those who convinced me to wait for my order.. I'd be spending money to cancel right now.. Or change delivery date to January or something if it's free...
�

Anirudh Goel said: ?

My MX order locks in tonight and rather than being excited, I am having a sleepless night wondering the same on what should I do with my order.

This article albeit rumor sure has put my thoughts in a disarray and given tesla's history of not retrofitting major upgrades it only makes sense to wait and watch.

Delaying the delivery might mean you lose Alliant's exceptional interest rate of 1.49% on qualifying credit (their current deal ends on 7/15).

We could also argue that since tesla has stopped RVG on all financing last week onwards, all cars that are currently coming off production line are already enabled with new hardware and thus tesla doesn't have to protect the resale value of these card as it knows they will hold value.
Click to expand...

On the other hand waiting another 6 month may save you a lot of money depending on your situation.

I did not know the deal was going to end. How much is this really worth though?
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calisnow said: ?

Boy that sure puts them in a tough decision scenario - the press will damn them if they do or if they don't.

Option 1 - No retrofit. Headline: "Tesla says for safe autopilot you must buy a new car."
Option 2 - Free retrofit. Headline: "Tesla tacitly acknowledges that their autopilot is dangerous. Why do they gamble with our lives?"
Option 3 - Charge for retrofit. Headline: "Tesla acknowledges their autopilot is dangerous, and makes customers pay to fix their sloppy engineering."
Click to expand...

Yeah, the media will be the media. From an owner's point of view, I don't see how any form of safety retrofit could be seen as negative.
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xav- said: ?

I hope for no option 1 for the many owners here! As a prospective owner I won't take any chances. You make a rational argument that option 1 may be unlikely though. I hope musk will clarify soon.

I think that option 1/ will open the case for lawsuits which IMO would be justifiable if AP in its current form happens to be unsafe, a claim which by the way many owners made in this forum before the fatal crash from last week was even disclosed.

My 2 cents. Thanks to those who convinced me to wait for my order.. I'd be spending money to cancel right now.. Or change delivery date to January or something if it's free...
Click to expand...

Tesla states 8.0 updates will improve current configuration. And they've always said the system doesn't allow for people to keep their eyes off the road. So if it's option 1, I doubt they're going to say that it's unsafe and you'll have to upgrade to get a safe car. Even AP2 isn't going to be perfect. It will enhance the capabilities of the car over its current state. And hopefully, retrofitting is possible. We tried that after missing out on AP1 by 5 days. So I won't chance it this time.
With that said, we may order by the 15th to get the $1000 off and push delivery back until confirmation of any new hardware is absolutely known.
�

Since this is another thread about "Autopilot 2.0," I just wanted to throw out the idea that the lack of model years may become a source of frustration. We're all seeing people trying to time the latest sensor suite, battery update, or important upgrade. This is in contrast to waiting for the "New 2017 Model S." More and more people just don't know when to jump in and purchase.

If it were more of an iPhone approach with new hardware every year and firmware updates throughout, it would be more predictable for consumers. Don't get me wrong: It's already an amazing car. If you're happy with the price and features today, it shouldn't matter what comes out tomorrow. Especially knowing firmware will keep making it better, which is unprecedented for cars.

However, we need to acknowledge we're in this strange new place between a consumer electronic device and an automobile. The longer it takes for AP 2.0, the more people on the sidelines, afraid of purchasing a month too soon. Notice how everyone is obsessed with every major announcement (from the Model X launch to the Model 3 reveal), expecting the next AP suite?

I'm not suggesting going back to the traditional "model year" but surely there has to be a better way to time major upgrades for such a large purchase? Especially when we're not talking about incremental upgrades these days, but the ability to have Level 3 or Level 4 autonomy in the near (1-3 years) future.

How does Tesla keep moving forward with its current speed and flexibility without stories of "missing AutoPilot 2.0" by five days?
�

benemac said: ?

Tesla states 8.0 updates will improve current configuration. And they've always said the system doesn't allow for people to keep their eyes off the road. So if it's option 1, I doubt they're going to say that it's unsafe and you'll have to upgrade to get a safe car. Even AP2 isn't going to be perfect. It will enhance the capabilities of the car over its current state. And hopefully, retrofitting is possible. We tried that after missing out on AP1 by 5 days. So I won't chance it this time.
With that said, we may order by the 15th to get the $1000 off and push delivery back until confirmation of any new hardware is absolutely known.
Click to expand...

Interesting. How long do you have to push the delivery back and is there any fee for doing so?
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TaoJones said: ?

Well, there could be degrees as well. For example, there have been multiple reports that, per MobilEye, traffic light and stop sign reaction is possible with AP1.0.
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"Possible" is one thing. 99.9999% reliability (which is really crucial for red lights and stop signs) is another. Even with that level of reliability, if the average Tesla with AP (~40k of them on the road soon) encounters 25 red lights per day, that's one red light run per day. Given how consistently the current AP seems to misread speed limit signs, I'd guess they're in the ballpark of 99% to 99.9% accuracy with red lights. Not even close to good enough. I do hope Tesla proves me wrong though!
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Ben W said: ?

"Possible" is one thing. 99.9999% reliability (which is really crucial for red lights and stop signs) is another. Even with that level of reliability, if the average Tesla with AP (~40k of them on the road soon) encounters 25 red lights per day, that's one red light run per day. Given how consistently the current AP seems to misread speed limit signs, I'd guess they're in the ballpark of 99% to 99.9% accuracy with red lights. Not even close to good enough. I do hope Tesla proves me wrong though!
Click to expand...

This goes back to the overarching debate over Autopilot in general. The early, albeit not definitive, data appears to show it's safer. By this logic, adding 99.9% effective red light/stop sign warnings will only make the entire system better. The current Autopilot will blast through an intersection at full speed. Tesla just needs to continue making it clear that this is still not "autonomy" and requires an alert driver.

On the other hand, you have people who say the more assistance you give, the less alert the drivers will be. There doesn't appear to be direct evidence of assistance causing more accidents. TACC and AEB have been available for a long time from many manufactures and the data suggests it has saved many lives. (I've had TACC since 2002 and still know not to completely trust it after 14 years.) However, it would be naive to ignore human nature. If something is safe 99.9% of the time, there's definitely an argument people may start to trust it too much.
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Anirudh Goel said: ?

We could also argue that since tesla has stopped RVG on all financing last week onwards, all cars that are currently coming off production line are already enabled with new hardware and thus tesla doesn't have to protect the resale value of these card as it knows they will hold value.
Click to expand...

Or we could argue that tesla is freaked out by the effect that the $35k base model 3 will have on the resale value of 3 year old model Ss.
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calisnow said: ?

Normally I would say "no." On the other hand, we do know that EyeQ3 was designed to be capable of processing input from multiple cameras - I believe up to three cameras actually.

Given the fatality, I suppose it's possible that Tesla could be motivated to offer a minor retrofit offering some additional capability - a stereo camera perhaps? Trifocal camera? This wouldn't be full autonomy of course but it could add to the car's capabilities for sensing long range threats and add a wider angle to the front vision.

We now have two highly publicized autopilot accidents involving failure to see large objects blocking the forward path - the truck-in-the-lane collision in Europe and now the fatality in Florida. If there is a way to offer a cost effective upgrade perhaps Tesla will do it.

I am planning on trading in my current AP 1.0 car whenever full autonomy is available - but if Tesla told me tomorrow that for a few thousand dollars I could add a layer of additional accuracy in detecting stopped objects in front of the car then I would pony up the cash immediately.

Dunno - my guess is still no but anything's possible.
Click to expand...

As you probably know, cost for retrofitting with Tesla have always been huge even when retrofitting has (rarely) been possible. It has been cheaper to sell old car and buy new than retrofit.

But if this AP 2.0 only needs additional camera, I see that reasonable priced retrofit could be possible. But on the other hand, it is better for Tesla, that you buy new car instead, so...
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Todd Burch said: ?

The current hardware is absolutely capable of recognizing and stopping at red lights/stop signs, per a presentation by MobilEye.

My gut feeling is that I don't trust a word in this article.
Click to expand...

Yep. Why would you need second camera for that?
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Matias said: ?

Yep. Why would you need second camera for that?
Click to expand...

Do we know the focal length of the current camera? It might not be wide enough to see tall lights from a close distance. They can work around this for signs by looking for them in advance and detecting the distance, but they can't do that for lights because they need to see when the light changes while it's in close proximity to the car.
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MarkS22 said: ?

However, we need to acknowledge we're in this strange new place between a consumer electronic device and an automobile. The longer it takes for AP 2.0, the more people on the sidelines, afraid of purchasing a month too soon. Notice how everyone is obsessed with every major announcement (from the Model X launch to the Model 3 reveal), expecting the next AP suite?

I'm not suggesting going back to the traditional "model year" but surely there has to be a better way to time major upgrades for such a large purchase? Especially when we're not talking about incremental upgrades these days, but the ability to have Level 3 or Level 4 autonomy in the near (1-3 years) future.

How does Tesla keep moving forward with its current speed and flexibility without stories of "missing AutoPilot 2.0" by five days?
Click to expand...

Right on. This has to be something that they're discussing internally as it's potentially leading to the impression of softer demand even if in reality that's not the case.
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MarkS22 said: ?

Since this is another thread about "Autopilot 2.0," I just wanted to throw out the idea that the lack of model years may become a source of frustration. We're all seeing people trying to time the latest sensor suite, battery update, or important upgrade. This is in contrast to waiting for the "New 2017 Model S." More and more people just don't know when to jump in and purchase.

If it were more of an iPhone approach with new hardware every year and firmware updates throughout, it would be more predictable for consumers. Don't get me wrong: It's already an amazing car. If you're happy with the price and features today, it shouldn't matter what comes out tomorrow. Especially knowing firmware will keep making it better, which is unprecedented for cars.

However, we need to acknowledge we're in this strange new place between a consumer electronic device and an automobile. The longer it takes for AP 2.0, the more people on the sidelines, afraid of purchasing a month too soon. Notice how everyone is obsessed with every major announcement (from the Model X launch to the Model 3 reveal), expecting the next AP suite?

I'm not suggesting going back to the traditional "model year" but surely there has to be a better way to time major upgrades for such a large purchase? Especially when we're not talking about incremental upgrades these days, but the ability to have Level 3 or Level 4 autonomy in the near (1-3 years) future.

How does Tesla keep moving forward with its current speed and flexibility without stories of "missing AutoPilot 2.0" by five days?
Click to expand...

Thanks for the relief Sometimes we need to step back a bit and re-assess before panic sets in. I have a Model S in production now and will get delivery in August. I am (was) very happy with the current price, options and software. But an article based on a rumor has gotten me thinking about delaying delivery. I will step back and be very happy with what I have and just hope there will be some form of retrofit when 2.0 comes out. I can see ordering in January 2017 then hear rumors about full auotonomy coming soon...........when does it end? Tesla makes such a great car and is constantly improving on it. Live for the now!
�

Chopr147 said: ?

Thanks for the relief Sometimes we need to step back a bit and re-assess before panic sets in. I have a Model S in production now and will get delivery in August. I am (was) very happy with the current price, options and software. But an article based on a rumor has gotten me thinking about delaying delivery. I will step back and be very happy with what I have and just hope there will be some form of retrofit when 2.0 comes out. I can see ordering in January 2017 then hear rumors about full auotonomy coming soon...........when does it end? Tesla makes such a great car and is constantly improving on it. Live for the now!
Click to expand...

You're right, it doesn't end and that's a good thing overall.
�

MarkS22 said: ?

Since this is another thread about "Autopilot 2.0," I just wanted to throw out the idea that the lack of model years may become a source of frustration. We're all seeing people trying to time the latest sensor suite, battery update, or important upgrade. This is in contrast to waiting for the "New 2017 Model S." More and more people just don't know when to jump in and purchase.
Click to expand...

I take your point, but would argue that a traditional model year approach, where everyone knew that in the fall of every year a "new and improved" car would go on sale, and that no major changes to the car would be made at other times of the year, would result in a greater number of potential buyers waiting for the upcoming "new and improved" cars and postponing their purchase compared to the current situation where no one really knows for sure when the major changes will take place.

Keep in mind that participants in TMC discussions only represent a small fraction of all Tesla owners and potential buyers. Most Tesla owners and potential buyers do not obsessively track every word out of Elon's mouth and every incremental change in Tesla vehicles like those here are wont to do. In my experience, the average potential buyer only has vague notions about what Tesla currently offers, and no interest in the intense discussions on TMC. Over the past several years I have spoken to many Tesla owners and potential buyers I've met through random encounters, and few are conversant with the details that we here on TMC dwell on.

If AP 2.0 offers multiple forward facing cameras in the rear view mirror enclosure, and that is the only hardware difference to AP 1.0, I certainly hope that Tesla offers an upgrade path to current owners. I don't expect it to be free. That would set a precedent that Tesla could not afford going forward.
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calisnow said: ?

Losing the RVG is puzzling to me. If Tesla is confident about the value of the cars then the rational move is to keep the guarantee in place since it provides a benefit to the consumer and also costs Tesla nothing. The only reason to remove the guarantee is if in fact the cars are not holding resale. I think.
Click to expand...

I do not follow the resale threads nor have the premium subscription of ev-cpo, do you think they are not holding value? I thought they were holding way above 50% residual value after 3 years. Frankly I assumed tesla would break ground on this depreciation tactics and 50% after 3 years just baffles me, isn't the primary depreciation reason engine and drive train?

xav- said: ?

My 2 cents. Thanks to those who convinced me to wait for my order.. I'd be spending money to cancel right now.. Or change delivery date to January or something if it's free...
Click to expand...

Let me know how changing delivery works, I couldn't resist temptation and placed the order too and might want to delay it as well as I do not want to join the missed by 5 days queue.

Of course others have said it right, the wait never ends as it keeps upgrading but when we are super close to a major Hardware refresh it only makes sense to wait.

xav- said: ?

I did not know the deal was going to end. How much is this really worth though?
Click to expand...

I think other CU/banks are at least 0.5 - 1% higher. The variance in interest rate matters to me as that essentially means paying more money for the same configuration.

xav- said: ?

Or we could argue that tesla is freaked out by the effect that the $35k base model 3 will have on the resale value of 3 year old model Ss.
Click to expand...

Boy! That would be fun to watch, one fine day after the M3 reveal event board members start contemplating and realize what they have done.
�

They better, there is a *sugar*-storm coming due to all these accidents related to AP use/miss-use. Just saying!
�

Anirudh Goel said: ?

Frankly I assumed tesla would break ground on this depreciation tactics and 50% after 3 years just baffles me, isn't the primary depreciation reason engine and drive train?
Click to expand...

I would say that the primary reason for new cars depreciating is that buyers won't pay nearly as much for a "used" car as they will for a brand new car.

I assume your point is that EV drivetrains should last much longer and be more reliable than ICE drivetrains. However most people don't understand that or are not considering buying an EV, so EVs are going to depreciate in a similar way that ICEs depreciate.
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ecarfan said: ?

I would say that the primary reason for new cars depreciating is that buyers won't pay nearly as much for a "used" car as they will for a brand new car.

I assume your point is that EV drivetrains should last much longer and be more reliable than ICE drivetrains. However most people don't understand that or are not considering buying an EV, so EVs are going to depreciate in a similar way that ICEs depreciate.
Click to expand...

We're transitioning to a time where technology (including UI response, autonomy/sensors, safety features, and battery technology) will be depreciating much faster than the mechanical parts in the minds of consumers. Uncharted territory.
�

Matias said: ?

As you probably know, cost for retrofitting with Tesla have always been huge even when retrofitting has (rarely) been possible. It has been cheaper to sell old car and buy new than retrofit.

But if this AP 2.0 only needs additional camera, I see that reasonable priced retrofit could be possible. But on the other hand, it is better for Tesla, that you buy new car instead, so...
Click to expand...

I would not be surprised if they did a free/reasonably priced retrofit, if possible, because of safety. Tesla is very safety-conscious and I see that is the number one reason a retrofit will be available and reasonable. Again, if it is possible.
�

Bimbels said: ?

I would not be surprised if they did a free/reasonably priced retrofit, if possible, because of safety. Tesla is very safety-conscious and I see that is the number one reason a retrofit will be available and reasonable. Again, if it is possible.
Click to expand...

Well of course it would be possible, WK057 proved it was even possible to retrofit AP1.0 onto a classic Model S. (However, it wasn't cheap or easy. Though I guess it would be much easier for him to do it again.)
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MP3Mike said: ?

Well of course it would be possible, WK057 proved it was even possible to retrofit AP1.0 onto a classic Model S. (However, it wasn't cheap or easy. Though I guess it would be much easier for him to do it again.)
Click to expand...

Although Jason said he would never do it again. Too much work, too expensive.
�

Recognizing traffic lights is a huge challenge due to different shapes and positions. Some are vertical, some are horizontal. Some are at the far end of the intersection, some hang from a cable in the middle of the intersection. And then there is Europe where the lights are at the nearside of the intersection and the car first in line has them directly overhead.
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mrElbe said: ?

Recognizing traffic lights is a huge challenge due to different shapes and positions. Some are vertical, some are horizontal. Some are at the far end of the intersection, some hang from a cable in the middle of the intersection. And then there is Europe where the lights are at the nearside of the intersection and the car first in line has them directly overhead.
Click to expand...

And some where the actual lights are around a "blind" corner so they add an additional light inline with your direction of travel and if you passed under it you would cross the traffic and run into trees on the other side. So you actually end up with the straight through light on both the left and right side of the left hand turn signal. (That confuses enough human drivers that I suspect it will cause a problem for most AP systems as well.)
�

"You say it's going to happen now.
But when, exactly, do you mean?
See, I've already waited too long.
And all my hope is gone."
�

Anirudh Goel said: ?

I do not follow the resale threads nor have the premium subscription of ev-cpo, do you think they are not holding value? I thought they were holding way above 50% residual value after 3 years. Frankly I assumed tesla would break ground on this depreciation tactics and 50% after 3 years just baffles me, isn't the primary depreciation reason engine and drive train?
Click to expand...

I don't really know what the data says. I was just pointing out that removing the resale value guarantee does not seem logical if the cars are indeed holding value well, because the RVG is a great selling point.
�

calisnow said: ?

Losing the RVG is puzzling to me. If Tesla is confident about the value of the cars then the rational move is to keep the guarantee in place since it provides a benefit to the consumer and also costs Tesla nothing. The only reason to remove the guarantee is if in fact the cars are not holding resale. I think.
Click to expand...

Remember that Elon is underwriting the guarantee personally. Maybe the volume of cars has simply become to big to continue to do so
�

IDK how the re-sale will hold up but there are always more people who can afford the used car rather than new. And with EV's coming in the next few years there just may be millions more wanting a Tesla w/o having to pay premium for a new one. The S could actually hold it's value more than any other car out there "IF" the EV era comes roaring in!
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calisnow said: ?

I don't really know what the data says. I was just pointing out that removing the resale value guarantee does not seem logical if the cars are indeed holding value well, because the RVG is a great selling point.
Click to expand...

We know the cars sold 3 year ago with the guarantee held up. Tesla recognized $12M additional revenue from expirations (ie when the trade in value was above the guarantee) in 2015. What we don't know (and what is relevent for Tesla in deciding the guarantee going forward) is how the prices will hold up in 3 year. A 3yo Model S CPO will then compete with a brand new model 3 while today it effectively competes with nothing in that price range. More competition means lower prices...
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mrElbe said: ?

Recognizing traffic lights is a huge challenge due to different shapes and positions. Some are vertical, some are horizontal. Some are at the far end of the intersection, some hang from a cable in the middle of the intersection. And then there is Europe where the lights are at the nearside of the intersection and the car first in line has them directly overhead.
Click to expand...

This is already solved and current hardware and software is able to read signs.
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calisnow said: ?

If Tesla continues to behave in the future like they always have in the past there will be no upgrade path. I do not think they have ever released a "wiring harness" that was later upgradeable to something else - but maybe I'm mistaken?

Maybe this time will be different, I dunno. If I were in your shoes and I had functional transportation I would definitely specify a late December/early January delivery, not September. We are *this* close - I think it's silly not to wait 90 more days for what is likely going to be a huge leap forward in functionality and safety that will pay dividends to you for years to come.

If anything, I believe the fatality will push Tesla to get the next generation out sooner rather than later. Tesla really needs some good news to get people past the Solar City/fatality/declining delivery mountain of negative press.
Click to expand...

Considering the AP processing is all done on the mobile eye hardware, modular upgrades could be a very real possibility.
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schonelucht said: ?

We know the cars sold 3 year ago with the guarantee held up. Tesla recognized $12M additional revenue from expirations (ie when the trade in value was above the guarantee) in 2015. What we don't know (and what is relevent for Tesla in deciding the guarantee going forward) is how the prices will hold up in 3 year. A 3yo Model S CPO will then compete with a brand new model 3 while today it effectively competes with nothing in that price range. More competition means lower prices...
Click to expand...

brand new 3, brand new auto pilot.. More range, Likely more reliable, cheaper repairs, more durable.
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Matias said: ?

Yep. Why would you need second camera for that?
Click to expand...

To add redundancy.. Also each camera can focus on items at different distances enabling collecting more data, reducing the number of false positives/negatives
�

msnow said: ?

Although Jason said he would never do it again. Too much work, too expensive.
Click to expand...

There was a lot more that needed to be done than "add sensors." For example, completely replacing the brakes to be CAN bus controlled. (Which he called "super annoying.") In theory, this step wouldn't be needed.

I think a lot will depend on how many new sensors are implemented on AP 2.0. If it's "simply" a trifocal camera cluster and multiple EyeQ3s controlling the same steering and braking hardware, the labor and expense won't be anywhere near what he had to do.
�

MarkS22 said: ?

There was a lot more that needed to be done than "add sensors." For example, completely replacing the brakes to be CAN bus controlled. (Which he called "super annoying.") In theory, this step wouldn't be needed.

I think a lot will depend on how many new sensors are implemented on AP 2.0. If it's "simply" a trifocal camera cluster and multiple EyeQ3s controlling the same steering and braking hardware, the labor and expense won't be anywhere near what he had to do.
Click to expand...

Exactly. If they do a trifocal only (AP 1.5?) upgrade and the trifocal fits in the current windshield space, I'd expect Tesla to offer an easy and fairly cheap upgrade, pretty much just the cost of the trifocal module with the new chips. If it won't fit and you need a new windshield, they might still offer the upgrade for somewhat more money.

If they jump straight to 2.0 with full surround cameras and possibly more radar, I don't expect Tesla to offer an upgrade - but it'd still be easier to upgrade than what Jason did (because you shouldn't have to touch the brakes or any other systems.)
�

The smart move, IMO, is for Elon to announce that there will be an upgrade path for existing AP 1.0 vehicles now. I'm saying that as a stockholder -- not just a owner who would benefit from such an announcement. I want to see as many Teslas ordered now as possible.

Given my current knowledge of the car, if I didn't already have a Model S, I would order a 60D ASAP. I wouldn't want to wait another 6-9 months for AP2 and miss my current driving enjoyment. I'd also be willing to pony up the $$$ for the retrofit just like I'd pony up to increase driving range on the 60D.

(After 7 months of EV, I cringe at the thought of pumping gas now.)
�

mrElbe said: ?

Recognizing traffic lights is a huge challenge due to different shapes and positions. Some are vertical, some are horizontal. Some are at the far end of the intersection, some hang from a cable in the middle of the intersection. And then there is Europe where the lights are at the nearside of the intersection and the car first in line has them directly overhead.
Click to expand...

Doesn't autopilot have an advantage in that it should know (or be able to know based on GPS/road data) exactly where each traffic light is located? Thus it can know when to be looking for one, and also which way is 'straight' vs which way is 'turn left' or 'turn right'?
�

calisnow said: ?

If Tesla continues to behave in the future like they always have in the past there will be no upgrade path.
Click to expand...

No upgrade path? What do you call?:

1) Folding mirrors.
2) 3g to 4g.
3) Parking sensors.
4) Sun visor.
5) Software updates to add new features.

And probably another half dozen things I just can't think off the top of my head.

What other car company has EVER updated already sold model year cars in the past??
�

sorka said: ?

No upgrade path? What do you call?:

1) Folding mirrors.
2) 3g to 4g.
3) Parking sensors.
4) Sun visor.
5) Software updates to add new features.

And probably another half dozen things I just can't think off the top of my head.

What other car company has EVER updated already sold model year cars in the past??
Click to expand...

and don't forget the ludicrous upgrade for p85ds.
�

bhzmark said: ?

and don't forget the ludicrous upgrade for p85ds.
Click to expand...

Doh! And it's the one upgrade that I actually had done. Can't believe I left that off the list.
�

xav- said: ?

Interesting. How long do you have to push the delivery back and is there any fee for doing so?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how many times you can but when I built the car, I could originally set it for October. I'm pretty sure you can push it back further as I know someone who did this twice. I don't think he paid a fee. Maybe someone who's done this can respond better.
�

On the positive side, you might get some upgrades for free if they are included in base config, even if the price goes up.

On the negative side, you might start getting stuck with change fees if new options come available that you want that are t included in base.

Personally, just order when your ready to commit.
�

I talked to the Tesla test drive pilot - and asked..."can I put in for a Dec delivery, and accelerate if there is breaking news. He said, once I configure, I'm locked in on items (else $500 fee), but i can always change delivery date. accelerate or delay. Did not inquire how many times before they get tired of it - but you get (at least) one delivery date change with no fee
�

You do have to make sure you stay on top of it and tell them you want to delay before your car enters production - and they are not always good about communicating when it enters. If they fail to notify you, and you bumble along and then one day realize you need to delay - they can get mighty cranky. Ask me how I know...
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calisnow said: ?

You do have to make sure you stay on top of it and tell them you want to delay before your car enters production - and they are not always good about communicating when it enters. If they fail to notify you, and you bumble along and then one day realize you need to delay - they can get mighty cranky. Ask me how I know...
Click to expand...

How do you know?

Just joking. Yeah, I was told the max they can push out a delivery is six months, but that once we get closer to the end of that six months they'll just push it out further if that's what I want. So for an estimated delivery date of December, you should be contacting them in mid to late September to be in the safe side. I'm pushing mine to March.
�

calisnow said: ?

You do have to make sure you stay on top of it and tell them you want to delay before your car enters production - and they are not always good about communicating when it enters. If they fail to notify you, and you bumble along and then one day realize you need to delay - they can get mighty cranky. Ask me how I know...
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Thanks for that information. It helps.
Do you know if you lock in, and let's say a seat option you've been hoping for becomes available which increases the cost of your car, does the $500 chg fee still apply?
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benemac said: ?

Thanks for that information. It helps.
Do you know if you lock in, and let's say a seat option you've been hoping for becomes available which increases the cost of your car, does the $500 chg fee still apply?
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what I was told YESTERDAY was. Locked in meant locked in. ONLY delivery date could be shifted.
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AZ Desert Driver said: ?

what I was told YESTERDAY was. Locked in meant locked in. ONLY delivery date could be shifted.
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I was told something completely different. If new options that weren't available at the time of your order are announced, they can waive the change fee. You'd just add the cost of the new option to your order. I've also read of other forum members getting the $500 change fee waived. I think the fee really is to prevent people from flip flopping between colors or existing options. Makes it difficult for procurement purposes to estimate demand.
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tomp said: ?

Doesn't autopilot have an advantage in that it should know (or be able to know based on GPS/road data) exactly where each traffic light is located? Thus it can know when to be looking for one, and also which way is 'straight' vs which way is 'turn left' or 'turn right'?
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Not really. Google is trying that approach but it involves having a totally accurate database. What happens the day a through street gets converted to a 4 way stop? MobilEye is trying a more "human" approach of doing recognition.

Stopping for lights and signs makes me more nervous than the present system,.
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calisnow said: ?

Losing the RVG is puzzling to me. If Tesla is confident about the value of the cars then the rational move is to keep the guarantee in place since it provides a benefit to the consumer and also costs Tesla nothing. The only reason to remove the guarantee is if in fact the cars are not holding resale. I think.
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RVG goes out the window when you start producing Model 3 or else people can buy cars at half price and Tesla is stuck buying back Model S/X and selling them as CPO at a loss.

They can reinstate RVG again after the Model 3 caused fluctuation in prices when everything stabilizes to a new level but they need a RVG free period around the release to give them time to adjust the pricing.
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schonelucht said: ?

We know the cars sold 3 year ago with the guarantee held up. Tesla recognized $12M additional revenue from expirations (ie when the trade in value was above the guarantee) in 2015. What we don't know (and what is relevent for Tesla in deciding the guarantee going forward) is how the prices will hold up in 3 year. A 3yo Model S CPO will then compete with a brand new model 3 while today it effectively competes with nothing in that price range. More competition means lower prices...
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Ironically a totaled vehicle lets Tesla/Elon off the hook for that RVG. Every crashed Tesla is one less car they have to hold back money for the residual value guarantee.

I have to wonder what percentage of the $12M was based on cars that were totaled vs cars that were traded in vs cars that were kept but passed the 3 year mark (actually 39 months is the final cutoff).
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Give up the hope for a retrofit. Tesla will continue adding sensors over time as it needs to. Model 3 will have a far more advanced Autopilot suite than any currently shipping Model S or Model X, and at half the price. That's just how technology rolls. This is an iPad on wheels, so we need to get used to much more frequent and dramatic update cycles.
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buckerine said: ?

I was told something completely different. If new options that weren't available at the time of your order are announced, they can waive the change fee. You'd just add the cost of the new option to your order. I've also read of other forum members getting the $500 change fee waived. I think the fee really is to prevent people from flip flopping between colors or existing options. Makes it difficult for procurement purposes to estimate demand.
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The key in above is "can" & not "required". I'm not even sure they are required to deliver the current car being produced.

If there are significant changes, they could go ahead and build the car you ordered and put it in a back room waiting for your delivery date.
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brkaus said: ?

The key in above is "can" & not "required". I'm not even sure they are required to deliver the current car being produced.

If there are significant changes, they could go ahead and build the car you ordered and put it in a back room waiting for your delivery date.
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Right. Definitely is up to the good graces of your delivery specialist and tesla corporate policy. The only car they're legally obligated to deliver is the car and all of the options on your purchase agreement.
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msnow said: ?

What's your guess on timing?
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Forgot to mention - in addition to the other public hints I already enumerated in answering your question on an earlier post, another reason I believe Autopilot 2.0 will be upon us by the end of this year is that back in December 2015 Elon Musk gave an interview to Fortune, in which he was quoted that he believes Tesla will have an autonomous car in two years. By itself this quote doesn't seem to add up to AP 2.0 hardware showing up in the Model S by the end of 2016 - but if you add this to the other bullet point items I think it is another piece of supporting evidence.

In December 2015, two years away would be December 2017. End of 2017 is when Musk has promised the first Model 3 deliveries. Model 3 Reveal Part II is coming at end of 2016 and will most likely reveal a Level 4 self driving car if you believe Musk's December Fortune quote:

"Musk wouldn�t reveal details about the next generation of autopilot. That, he explains, �would be a major announcement.� But he did tell Fortune where Tesla will end up. "We�re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.� That doesn�t mean city streets will be overflowing with driverless Tesla vehicles by 2018 (coincidentally, the company�s Model 3 should be on roads by then). Musk expects regulators will lag behind the technology. He predicts it will take an additional year for regulators to determine that it�s safe and to go through an approval process. In some jurisdictions, it may take five years or more, he says. Musk adds an important caveat�one that raises the standard of what it means to achieve full autonomy. �When I say level 4, I mean level 4 autonomy with the probability of an accident is less than that of person,� he says.

So I'm guessing Level 4 hardware baked into Model S/X by end of 2016 to avoid the Osborne effect and also to build a year of fleet training data (perhaps running in the background in simulation mode) before the Model III begins deliveries. If Musk reveals only a slightly more advanced intermediate Autopilot for Model III in the "reveal part II" he will Osborne the Model III itself as soon as someone asks him "Well, you said Level 4 autonomy by the end of 2017" if his reply is "Yeah, well, the first Model III's will only have a slightly more advanced Autopilot - we will ship Level 4 hardware in the Model S at the end of 2017 but Model III will have to wait a while longer."

That response wouldn't be feasible - he would then Osborne the Model III. The only way all these hints fit together and do not Osborne Tesla in one way or another is if Model III ships with Level 4 hardware from the beginning - which would seem to require Model S getting the hardware at the same time as Model III Reveal Part II at the end of this year.

Also, if Model S/X get Level 4 hardware at the end of 2016 it will only build even more excitement for Model III - it's the best of both worlds for Tesla. Gooses existing car sales and builds even more pre-orders for the Model III.

Finally, if the Gigafactory really reduces Tesla's battery costs by 30% and starts building the Model S/X battery packs this summer - well there's your additional margin to allow Tesla to pay for shoving more cameras, computers and sensors into the Model S this coming December.

How this dovetails with a reported simple two-camera upgrade seen running around? I dunno. Maybe we're going to get a simple "1.5" patch fix retrofit to add reliable forward stopped-object detection to existing Autopilot 1.0 cars, but the "full enchilada" Level 4 capable hardware will show up in December.

Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years
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Of course, you could respond that what Musk meant is that in two years Tesla will begin shipping Level 4 autonomous capable hardware - which really is like an "Autopilot 3.0" - but that the intermediate step will be a 2.0 system.

Personally my gut says Musk is gonna shoot the moon on this despite the fatality and go straight to a car with Level 4 capable hardware by the end of 2016. I think it's up his sleeve and in store for us because he has said M3 Reveal Part II is going to blow us away and that the center mount screen will make more sense. The screen makes sense if you don't have to drive yourself most of the time, so looking off to the right isn't really a PIA since you don't do it frequently. I don't think the center-mount screen means merely that we have a HUD in store - that wouldn't blow anybody away or showcase "next generation" technology that JB has hinted at. :crosses fingers:
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calisnow said: ?

Forgot to mention - in addition to the other public hints I already enumerated in answering your question on an earlier post, another reason I believe Autopilot 2.0 will be upon us by the end of this year is that back in December 2015 Elon Musk gave an interview to Fortune, in which he was quoted that he believes Tesla will have an autonomous car in two years. By itself this quote doesn't seem to add up to AP 2.0 hardware showing up in the Model S by the end of 2016 - but if you add this to the other bullet point items I think it is another piece of supporting evidence.

In December 2015, two years away would be December 2017. End of 2017 is when Musk has promised the first Model 3 deliveries. Model 3 Reveal Part II is coming at end of 2016 and will most likely reveal a Level 4 self driving car if you believe Musk's December Fortune quote:

"Musk wouldn�t reveal details about the next generation of autopilot. That, he explains, �would be a major announcement.� But he did tell Fortune where Tesla will end up. "We�re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.� That doesn�t mean city streets will be overflowing with driverless Tesla vehicles by 2018 (coincidentally, the company�s Model 3 should be on roads by then). Musk expects regulators will lag behind the technology. He predicts it will take an additional year for regulators to determine that it�s safe and to go through an approval process. In some jurisdictions, it may take five years or more, he says. Musk adds an important caveat�one that raises the standard of what it means to achieve full autonomy. �When I say level 4, I mean level 4 autonomy with the probability of an accident is less than that of person,� he says.

So I'm guessing Level 4 hardware baked into Model S/X by end of 2016 to avoid the Osborne effect and also to build a year of fleet training data (perhaps running in the background in simulation mode) before the Model III begins deliveries. If Musk reveals only a slightly more advanced intermediate Autopilot for Model III in the "reveal part II" he will Osborne the Model III itself as soon as someone asks him "Well, you said Level 4 autonomy by the end of 2017" if his reply is "Yeah, well, the first Model III's will only have a slightly more advanced Autopilot - we will ship Level 4 hardware in the Model S at the end of 2017 but Model III will have to wait a while longer."

That response wouldn't be feasible - he would then Osborne the Model III. The only way all these hints fit together and do not Osborne Tesla in one way or another is if Model III ships with Level 4 hardware from the beginning - which would seem to require Model S getting the hardware at the same time as Model III Reveal Part II at the end of this year.

Also, if Model S/X get Level 4 hardware at the end of 2016 it will only build even more excitement for Model III - it's the best of both worlds for Tesla. Gooses existing car sales and builds even more pre-orders for the Model III.

Finally, if the Gigafactory really reduces Tesla's battery costs by 30% and starts building the Model S/X battery packs this summer - well there's your additional margin to allow Tesla to pay for shoving more cameras, computers and sensors into the Model S this coming December.

How this dovetails with a reported simple two-camera upgrade seen running around? I dunno. Maybe we're going to get a simple "1.5" patch fix retrofit to add reliable forward stopped-object detection to existing Autopilot 1.0 cars, but the "full enchilada" Level 4 capable hardware will show up in December.

Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years
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Well thought out, well articulated.
But - this assumes that Musk has control of the magic. That he has a working chip/camera in his pocket and is just deploying it on his schedule. I fear that Mobileye - good as they are- have not yet done the deed and Musk can't do anything about it. Hopes, Plans, Expectations --all feed your scenario, but sometimes reality does not fit plans.
Hope I'm wrong and you are right, but......
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AZ Desert Driver said: ?

Well thought out, well articulated.
But - this assumes that Musk has control of the magic. That he has a working chip/camera in his pocket and is just deploying it on his schedule. I fear that Mobileye - good as they are- have not yet done the deed and Musk can't do anything about it.
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Thanks Well, Mobileye was on record in 2015 publicly stating that the EyeQ3 currently interpreting the scene for our single camera Autopilot is capable of running fully autonomous cars and that "it is all software development" after that. They said this would be accomplished via a networked system running multiple connected EyeQ3's interpreting data from multiple cameras - that the EyeQ3 was architected from the beginning to be capable of this.

They also have insisted publicly, more than once, that an 8 camera system is coming to market in 2016 by an OEM they refuse to publicly name - however they bumped it back to 2017 in their most recent public statement.

Finally, they've stated that the EyeQ4 coming to market in 2018 will be capable of operating all these cameras on a single chip.
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Here is the link and Mobileye's CEO Ziv Aviram's direct quote from last November:

Supplier hints at next generation Autopilot hardware for Tesla within a year

The CEO described the �more sophisticated system� saying that one OEM is already implementing it in a vehicle:

�Today we are already preparing with one of the OEM, a first vehicle based on 8 cameras, one radar and ultrasonic around the vehicle. So this is much wider implementation of the first introduction of semi-autonomous driving and the trifocal is going to be here as we planned, but additional 4 cameras around the vehicle and one camera looking back. The system will run on 5 EyeQ3 chips and all of them will be connected.�

Aviram didn�t disclose which automaker is testing the system, but he said during a recent conference that Tesla is willing to push the envelope �faster and more aggressively than any other OEM�. He also hinted that the new system could find its way into a commercial product within a year and we know that Tesla has been testing a similar hardware suite."
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How many cameras does the new MB E have? I wonder if that's the system MobilEye was referring to above
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JeffreyY said: ?

How many cameras does the new MB E have? I wonder if that's the system MobilEye was referring to above
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The 2017 E-class has a bunch of cameras (I don't remember how many). But Mercedes doesn't use Mobileye, hasn't been building out high definition lane maps with its customer cars and isn't doing any fleet learning - which is one reason I speculate they are behind Tesla in their lane keeping accuracy. As far as the public knows there is no Mercedes which does any kind of fleet learning on actual public roads in customer-driven cars. I believe they have been using chips from NXP - but Benz has a deep bench internal research department and has been working on autonomous cars since at least the 1990's. Benz also claims in papers to write much of their own code both for object detection, path planning and sensor fusion.

I personally speculate that one reason Benz's new 2017 E Class appears to be so weak on lane keeping is that Benz may have an internal culture problem - with a bunch of old school German computer scientists in their 50's and 60's with entire careers invested in whatever AI future they envisioned - then the use of neural networks exploded in the last few years.

I'm sure Benz will quickly pivot and catch up but it does seem Tesla caught them with their pants down for a couple years. Now they are claiming they purposely made the 2017 E-Class's lane keeping system inaccurate - so that drivers stay attentive. To me that sounds like a desperate Hail Mary excuse to save face.
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AZ Desert Driver said: ?

Well thought out, well articulated.
But - this assumes that Musk has control of the magic. That he has a working chip/camera in his pocket
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Oh - one other piece of evidence that Musk may in fact have a chip in his pocket is an Israeli newspaper which reported in late March that several weeks prior Musk was seen in Israel - where he flew to view Mobileye's latest breakthroughs in action, fitted to a Model S:

"Sources inform "Globes" that a few weeks ago billionaire Elon Musk, owner of electric car maker Tesla and promoter of various energy and space ventures, secretly visited Israel. Musk flew to Israel in a private plane to visit Mobileye (NYSE: MBLY), which is developing key components for Tesla's automatic driving system Autopilot, which the company intends to launch commercially within the next few years.
Automotive industry sources say the aim of the visit was to view a demonstration of several breakthrough developments by Mobileye in this field installed on a trial Tesla Model S vehicle. Two vehicles of this type have been in Israel for some time and are being used in the development of the automated system."

Elon Musk visits Mobileye in Israel - Globes English
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calisnow said: ?

Now they are claiming they purposely made the 2017 E-Class's lane keeping system inaccurate - so that drivers stay attentive. To me that sounds like a desperate Hail Mary excuse to save face.
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If it was the problem, they should beep every 2 minutes, use sensor on the wheel or similar. their system is just dumb, like the the system of the competitor.
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calisnow said: ?

they've stated that the EyeQ4 coming to market in 2018 will be capable of operating all these cameras on a single chip.
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And at that point I think we will start to see autonomous driving start to come to a wide range of car models from multiple car manufacturers.

We are a lot closer to Level 4 than the vast majority of the car buying public realizes. In 5 years it will be commonplace.
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calisnow said: ?

The 2017 E-class has a bunch of cameras (I don't remember how many). But Mercedes doesn't use Mobileye, hasn't been building out high definition lane maps with its customer cars and isn't doing any fleet learning - which is one reason I speculate they are behind Tesla in their lane keeping accuracy. As far as the public knows there is no Mercedes which does any kind of fleet learning on actual public roads in customer-driven cars. I believe they have been using chips from NXP - but Benz has a deep bench internal research department and has been working on autonomous cars since at least the 1990's. Benz also claims in papers to write much of their own code both for object detection, path planning and sensor fusion.

I personally speculate that one reason Benz's new 2017 E Class appears to be so weak on lane keeping is that Benz may have an internal culture problem - with a bunch of old school German computer scientists in their 50's and 60's with entire careers invested in whatever AI future they envisioned - then the use of neural networks exploded in the last few years.

I'm sure Benz will quickly pivot and catch up but it does seem Tesla caught them with their pants down for a couple years. Now they are claiming they purposely made the 2017 E-Class's lane keeping system inaccurate - so that drivers stay attentive. To me that sounds like a desperate Hail Mary excuse to save face.
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Thx for the info on MB not using mobileye
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ecarfan said: ?

And at that point I think we will start to see autonomous driving start to come to a wide range of car models from multiple car manufacturers.

We are a lot closer to Level 4 than the vast majority of the car buying public realizes. In 5 years it will be commonplace.
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Not buying it. I think we're technically close. But that last small fraction of a percent will be a tough one. Combine that with the regulatory hurdles and I think 20 years at the earliest. I can see dedicated auto-drive lanes as being the next step.
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calisnow said: ?

Maybe this time will be different, I dunno. If I were in your shoes and I had functional transportation I would definitely specify a late December/early January delivery, not September. We are *this* close - I think it's silly not to wait 90 more days for what is likely going to be a huge leap forward in functionality and safety that will pay dividends to you for years to come.

If anything, I believe the fatality will push Tesla to get the next generation out sooner rather than later. Tesla really needs some good news to get people past the Solar City/fatality/declining delivery mountain of negative press.
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calisnow said: ?

My guess is December. So, given their problems with deadlines I'll wager February at the absolute latest for hardware to be shipping in cars - I make no prediction whatsoever on when software will be ready for said hardware. Reasoning is:

Musk - Says M3 reveal "part 2" is at the end of the year. He has said the interior will make more sense at that time (ie the center mount screen) and I *think* he said that the reveal is going to blow everyone away.

Musk - In an interview when asked if M3 will be self driving responded that he shouldn't answer that question now, then when pressed further said Tesla will do "the obvious thing."

JB - Said two relevant things: 1 - M3 will showcase Tesla's "next generation" technology. Is that necessarily AP? No - could be battery or drivetrain in addition to AP. 2 - JB has said S/X will continue to lead the way in technology and Tesla will not hold back for M3.

Mobileye - has been saying publicly for over a year that a multicamera EyeQ3 system is coming from an OEM in 2016. Their latest prediction for an 8 camera system is 2017 however.

Mobileye - Has also specifically said a multi-camera EyeQ3 system will ship in a car before EyeQ4. Each EyeQ3 was designed to handle multiple camera inputs and was also designed to network with other EyeQ3's. So Tesla does not have to wait for EyeQ4 to ship before going multi-camera in the S/X.

Given the above I condense the reasoning into:

Tesla will reveal more capable autopilot in part 2 of the M3 reveal, coming at the end of the year. Since Tesla does not want to Osborne the Model S they must simultaneously ship a more capable Autopilot in Model S/X, or even prior to the M3 reveal. The argument that Tesla will hold out the new autopilot for M3 is countered by JB's public statement that Tesla will not do that. As for whether a more capable system is possible we know that it is with currently available EyeQ3 SOC's.

This is how I arrive at an outer bounds end-of-2016 estimate for AP 2.0 hardware to ship in S/X. I don't predict it will be capable of full autonomy or even that the software will be ready.
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My lease on my Focus Electric is up on August 15th. At that point I will have no vehicle. I could maybe get by for a couple of weeks borrowing a car from my parents for a couple days a week and getting by with walking to work & everywhere else during the workweek, but I couldn't do that for months. I ordered my Model S last week & have a couple more days to make changes. I am debating asking for a January delivery, or just canceling my order right now while I can get a full refund of my deposit & waiting to see what happens. If I get a Model S and then AP 2.0 hardware starts being installed within the 6 months after I bought my car then I will be very upset. Spending this kind of money on a car is a once in a lifetime purchase for me, and not something that I can afford to repeat. My enjoyment of the car will be lost if I just barely miss out on AP 2.0.

Another option I have considered is keeping my current order (because I got the $1000 referral discount) and then just asking them to delay delivery until January 2017. Then the car should be built in mid-December 2016 and hopefully have the new hardware. But, I would be extra upset if I delay my delivery a few months & then still end up with no new hardware.

I wish we had a date scheduled for the upcoming event. If we knew a date then we could be fairly confident that the hardware would be built into cars starting prior to that date, like what happened with AP 1.0. It's making me really nervous...
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hybridbear said: ?

My lease on my Focus Electric is up on August 15th. At that point I will have no vehicle. I could maybe get by for a couple of weeks borrowing a car from my parents for a couple days a week and getting by with walking to work & everywhere else during the workweek, but I couldn't do that for months. I ordered my Model S last week & have a couple more days to make changes. I am debating asking for a January delivery, or just canceling my order right now while I can get a full refund of my deposit & waiting to see what happens. If I get a Model S and then AP 2.0 hardware starts being installed within the 6 months after I bought my car then I will be very upset. Spending this kind of money on a car is a once in a lifetime purchase for me, and not something that I can afford to repeat. My enjoyment of the car will be lost if I just barely miss out on AP 2.0.

Another option I have considered is keeping my current order (because I got the $1000 referral discount) and then just asking them to delay delivery until January 2017. Then the car should be built in mid-December 2016 and hopefully have the new hardware. But, I would be extra upset if I delay my delivery a few months & then still end up with no new hardware.

I wish we had a date scheduled for the upcoming event. If we knew a date then we could be fairly confident that the hardware would be built into cars starting prior to that date, like what happened with AP 1.0. It's making me really nervous...
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There will always be some new thing with Tesla. If this is going to upset you perhaps this isn't the right car for you.

Edit: @hybridbear - just saw you "disliked" my comment. Sorry but I can't in good conscience tell you there's a good answer but this is technology that is constantly evolving. By the way there will likely be another referral discount. They have been renewing it every quarter since the summer of 2015.
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hybridbear said: ?

My lease on my Focus Electric is up on August 15th. At that point I will have no vehicle. I could maybe get by for a couple of weeks borrowing a car from my parents for a couple days a week and getting by with walking to work & everywhere else during the workweek, but I couldn't do that for months. I ordered my Model S last week & have a couple more days to make changes. I am debating asking for a January delivery, or just canceling my order right now while I can get a full refund of my deposit & waiting to see what happens. If I get a Model S and then AP 2.0 hardware starts being installed within the 6 months after I bought my car then I will be very upset. Spending this kind of money on a car is a once in a lifetime purchase for me, and not something that I can afford to repeat. My enjoyment of the car will be lost if I just barely miss out on AP 2.0.

Another option I have considered is keeping my current order (because I got the $1000 referral discount) and then just asking them to delay delivery until January 2017. Then the car should be built in mid-December 2016 and hopefully have the new hardware. But, I would be extra upset if I delay my delivery a few months & then still end up with no new hardware.

I wish we had a date scheduled for the upcoming event. If we knew a date then we could be fairly confident that the hardware would be built into cars starting prior to that date, like what happened with AP 1.0. It's making me really nervous...
Click to expand...

As I have shared with those considering the purchase of a new Model S:

1. Configure options a and b from the design studio and print them out.

2. Get pre-qualified if you plan to finance or lease.

3. Identify those 1-2 key features most important to you.

4. When the 1-2 features become available, immediately place your order and pays yer deposit (submit and confirm).

In the case above, it's item #4 that's of most importance. Wait, then commit.

Insofar as AP 2.0 is concerned, if it's anything like AP1.0, there will be hardware first, and refinements to software releases over the next 1-2 years.

Recommend you consider deferring the once in a lifetime purchase until the execution of item 4 above. Note that 3 years after that, it will be time for the next once in a lifetime purchase. To bridge the gap between now and the order of the first once in a lifetime purchase, do consider an under-warranty AP Model S. It doesn't have to be perfect - just a relatively low cost bridge car to get you from ICE lease expiration until, say, 2-3 years down the line when you deem AP2.0 to be "ready".
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TaoJones said: ?

It doesn't have to be perfect - just a relatively low cost bridge car to get you from ICE lease expiration until, say, 2-3 years down the line when you deem AP2.0 to be "ready".
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What ICE lease? I haven't driven an ICE for years now...
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If anyone wants to get a car with Autopilot 2.0, the best thing they can do is wait till it is announced/shipping. Ordering a car and hoping they change the features to something you want is a recipe for disappointment.
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TaoJones said: ?

As I have shared with those considering the purchase of a new Model S:

1. Configure options a and b from the design studio and print them out.

2. Get pre-qualified if you plan to finance or lease.

3. Identify those 1-2 key features most important to you.

4. When the 1-2 features become available, immediately place your order and pays yer deposit (submit and confirm).

In the case above, it's item #4 that's of most importance. Wait, then commit.

Insofar as AP 2.0 is concerned, if it's anything like AP1.0, there will be hardware first, and refinements to software releases over the next 1-2 years.

Recommend you consider deferring the once in a lifetime purchase until the execution of item 4 above. Note that 3 years after that, it will be time for the next once in a lifetime purchase. To bridge the gap between now and the order of the first once in a lifetime purchase, do consider an under-warranty AP Model S. It doesn't have to be perfect - just a relatively low cost bridge car to get you from ICE lease expiration until, say, 2-3 years down the line when you deem AP2.0 to be "ready".
Click to expand...

As Charlie Brown would say :AGHAGGAHHH.
I made a Model 3 reservation, and then read every M3 post, then most of the MS posts, then got excited about the MS60 and configured away. Fence sitting - wait for AP2 or not?; pull the trigger while having a Referral coupon?. Did not like the trade in offer, did not like entry/exit from the low slung MS..decided to let July 15 lapse and rebuy in Dec (or when AP2 is announced or when I'm more athletic and flexible ) . Tao - I'm past your #4 and iterating- do loop back to #1. Buyers remorse (actually non-buyer remorse).
Now, you dirty rotten..you say there is a good chance of a renewed referral program. That gives me more confidence at delaying. Did I say AGHAGGAHHH.
Decision de Jour - Fence sit until AP2 is hardwired, then buy MS, and still hold on to M3 for possibly dual Tesla. Not going to install 14-50 until I place MS order. Let Alliant loan offer expire until I place MS order. My existing sleds are in very good condition and there is no fuse burning. Just chill while on fence.
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hybridbear said: ?

What ICE lease? I haven't driven an ICE for years now...
Click to expand...

s/ICE/Focus
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TaoJones said: ?

s/ICE/Focus
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My post above says that I drive a Focus Electric. My signature currently says the same thing...
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AZ Desert Driver said: ?

As Charlie Brown would say :AGHAGGAHHH.
I made a Model 3 reservation, and then read every M3 post, then most of the MS posts, then got excited about the MS60 and configured away. Fence sitting - wait for AP2 or not?; pull the trigger while having a Referral coupon?. Did not like the trade in offer, did not like entry/exit from the low slung MS..decided to let July 15 lapse and rebuy in Dec (or when AP2 is announced or when I'm more athletic and flexible ) . Tao - I'm past your #4 and iterating- do loop back to #1. Buyers remorse (actually non-buyer remorse).
Now, you dirty rotten..you say there is a good chance of a renewed referral program. That gives me more confidence at delaying. Did I say AGHAGGAHHH.
Decision de Jour - Fence sit until AP2 is hardwired, then buy MS, and still hold on to M3 for possibly dual Tesla. Not going to install 14-50 until I place MS order. Let Alliant loan offer expire until I place MS order. My existing sleds are in very good condition and there is no fuse burning. Just chill while on fence.
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Hehe - hang in there!

I pulled the trigger after the Oct 2014 AP event, and, depending upon how you look at it, the timing was either exactly right or was somewhere between 6 months and 2 years early.

One thing I do know - there will be contingency plans in place at each future decision point so as to not be without an EV (presumably a Tesla) until they pry my driver's license from my cold, arthritic fingers. Partly because of the Tesla driving experience, and partly because if I drove an ICE these days I'd just be a danger to myself and others.

Triggers for the next purchase are exactly 2: AP2.0 and, ideally, a 120kW battery. Until then, a Model 3 in 18 months will serve as the bridge car.
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hybridbear said: ?

My post above says that I drive a Focus Electric. My signature currently says the same thing...
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You've completely missed his point focusing on the wrong thing. He's basically saying buy a used Tesla under warranty or another car (doesn't matter what) until Tesla has all the options you want as a bridge. That's all.
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hybridbear said: ?

My post above says that I drive a Focus Electric. My signature currently says the same thing...
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Way to miss the forest for the trees.

Simple error on my part in the initial post. The s/x/y was shorthand for you to read "Focus" where the "ICE" is.

I'll go edit the original post now if the edit window is still open.

Or maybe delete it entirely since evidently the post itself is not of interest.

Edit: nope - 60-minute edit window expired. Suggest you disregard the word ICE in the fragment "ICE lease" and... have a nice day.
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TaoJones said: ?

Way to miss the forest for the trees.

Simple error on my part in the initial post. The s/x/y was shorthand for you to read "Focus" where the "ICE" is.

I'll go edit the original post now if the edit window is still open.

Or maybe delete it entirely since evidently the post itself is not of interest.

Edit: nope - 60-minute edit window expired. Suggest you disregard the word ICE in the fragment "ICE lease" and... have a nice day.
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You have some 800 posts. Which do you want to delete? I for one especially liked your 1,2,3,4 post. Please don't delete. It was of interest.
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teslamotorclub

Thứ Hai, 26 tháng 12, 2016

Autopilot 2.0 part 1

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