Jun 3, 2014
yobigd20 I think that guy was dead serious. He was acting all nervous then sounded like he was about to cry. It's not easy speaking in front of a lot of people. He probably played out that scenario thousands of times in his head thinking he actually had a legit chance at a job. Even if that guy is really educated and book smart, he certainly doesn't possess the social ability to communicate and that alone could be enough to squash any chance of a public executive position. He definitely could have some sort of learning disability. Or he could just be a complete loony that just escaped from the psycho ward down the road. What's next? A bunch of hippie college girls screaming "we love you Elon" and then taking their shirts off? lol seriously maybe they should double check who they let into this meeting. I could have asked a lot better questions than most of the ones I heard. The ones that annoy me the most are questions where the answer was already stated previously during his speech. It's like they were just wanting to get there 5 minutes of fame even though their question was already answered. Maybe that's me though, I watch all of his speeches and Q&A sessions so I keep hearing the same things being rehashed over and over again instead of something new. I like where he was called out on the roadster question, as well as the lathrop facility. Seriously more questions like that which would bring to light new stuff we don't know yet. The 11 year old kid was a cute question though. I hope Elon gives him a personal tour of the facility.�
Jun 3, 2014
Cosmacelf Adding together a few things together from Elon's responses: They have yet to find a battery chemistry that even equals what they have from Panasonic. Tesla is still supply constrained from Panasonic. Toyota wanted to buy battery packs/drivetrains in large volumes from Tesla, but Tesla couldn't supply enough batteries. Elon talking about the "first" gigafactory.
To me, it all means that Tesla's #1 competitive advantage over all other car makers is their relationship with Panasonic. I've been wondering why Tesla doesn't go it alone with making batteries. Sure Panasonic has patents, but Tesla might be able to get around those and/or just license the technology from Panasonic. But if Tesla did that, then Panasonic would be able to sell their batteries to everyone else.
So Tesla is tying up the world's best automotive batteries simply by buying all their output, and then even building them a bigger captive factory to make sure Panasonic can't sell their batteries directly to anyone else. At some point (Gigafactory #2? #3?) Tesla/Panasonic will have finally built out enough capacity to actually sell packs and drivetrains to the rest of the automotive industry.
By then, the industry will be begging Tesla for a turn key electric car platform.
Nice secret master plan #2...�
Jun 3, 2014
ggies07 I wanted him to expand on this with what the, is it CEO of Toyota or Head of marketing, in that interview a few weeks ago that EVs are dead and fuel cell is the way to go. It seems there are conflicting thoughts going on inside Toyota as well what it tells people/organizations, Elon/Tesla.�
Jun 3, 2014
aznt1217 Probably Akio Toyoda. He owns a Tesla Roadster and is a very forward thinking CEO. I hold him in high regard almost as much as Elon.�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan I don't recall anything else about the Roadster today. "Something nice" for Roadster owners in 2014 is all he committed to.
He said a next gen Roadster is at least 5 years away. I suspect longer than that. A Roadster type vehicle is a niche vehicle. First Tesla has to flawlessly execute the Gen III car. That is the focus.�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan I think Toyota would like to offer more limited production EV models to satisfy CARB requirements but they lack the inhouse expertise and resources to do so and can't get the battery packs. So for now they have no choice but to publicly hype their fool cell vehicle just to be allowed to continue to sell their ICE vehicles. They have no alternative.
Meanwhile, the revolution proceeds without them.�
Jun 3, 2014
ecarfan No one can read his mind. I was sitting three feet away from him while he had the microphone. He was very nervous but seemed serious. Unfortunately the words coming out of his mouth were out of touch with reality as most people understand it. I felt sad for him. And a bit nervous myself. I felt that Elon treated him with as much respect as he deserved.�
Jun 3, 2014
jak Does anyone have details on the last few minutes of the meeting. There appeared to be a young boy in line prepared to ask a question. I was curious if he was given the opportunity and what he may have asked. :smile:�
Jun 3, 2014
GasDoc I sat next to him at lunch. We didn't really chat much. I believe he reads the forums but didn't get the impression that he posts much.�
Jun 3, 2014
jak Well, since he did ask the question about when Elon would leave his position and who he thought he would want as CEO, he groomed himself the opportunity to ask such a question and he looked serious, too. Took guts, though. It would be like me nervously asking Kate Upton to dump her boyfriend and be my wife... for the benefit of world. But the grounded/reality side of me knows that would be foolish.�
Jun 3, 2014
aznt1217 Did you at least get some background on him and why he would be qualified to run a mature company? Granted, he'd probably do better than the predecessors in Detroit, but let's get real... Is he a part of MENSA at the very least?
I wish somebody asked the question of form
Factor and if the "skateboard" could be organized differently to fit various car bodies. Or perhaps how they are balancing weight and range on Model X. Instead of... Can I please take your job as CEO.
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Standing on line in an investor Q&A is grooming? Lol. All jokes aside, I wish the guy well. I wish I could get a call back from Tesla... Been a few weeks. Might be because I'm not a level 2 smart person. Maybe I'll ask for a job at the next shareholders conference. I kid I kid�
Jun 3, 2014
AlMc I was not there but painfully watched that interaction. He asked for a job at last year's meeting as well I believe. I wish him well but would have preferred he used his time for a question(s) that benefit the shareholders, not himself, regardless on his mental or social skills.
We all have our own priorities so you may take this as a rant: I don't care about what TM sells as apparel (2 questions) as a stockholder. Next year just give Dave T 10 questions and I will be fine. (another option: 5 questions each from DaveT and sleepy)�
Jun 3, 2014
GasDoc They should ask for the questions in written form and screen out the autograph hounds and job seekers.�
Jun 3, 2014
Chickenlittle Makes me realize that elon should have a security detail
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Even if he left after 4 or 5 years, they would have probably be in the planning process for next couple of models and direction of company for next 5 years after that�
Jun 3, 2014
clmason I'm trying to wrap my brain around this. Gen 3 is several years out and so is 500k annual run rate. Why do they need Lathrop now? What could possibly take up so much space now that they can't use the existing facility surplus space? It's cheaper to use the surplus space in freemont and move it in three years than it is to buy and build out another factory. Is tesla actively buying and accumulating Gen 3 assembly equipment? Or why are they short on space in freemont now?
Someone please help me understand the logic here.�
Jun 3, 2014
Maknyuzz Surprised noone asks about the stationary storage roadmap.
In the gigafactory slides, it says 50GWh cells, 35GWh vehicle pack, implying 15Gwh of stationary storage. That's like 30% of the battery.. Pretty significant portion imo..
I really would like to know the revenue recognition process for the Stationary storage. I know it's in partnership with Solarcity but what does that mean? does Solarcity just pay X amount, and Tesla get 20-30% margin? or will it be accrued overtime?
What is the customer interest looking like so far? Have we got into pilot? what companies that are already sold on the stationary storage idea? What about the interest from residential customer?
Will stationary storage reduce the overhead for Factory, plant electricity/energy cost? How will that help Superchargers?�
Jun 3, 2014
dsm363 How big is the equipment they need? Toyota left some of the massive presses at the Fremont plant (well they sold it for very little) because it was simply too heavy and expensive to move and throw away or reuse.�
Jun 3, 2014
clmason Check out the Dragon 2 post reveal q&a video, there is a guy hovering behind Elon. He looks a lot like security to me. Was there any security at the annual meeting?�
Jun 3, 2014
Maknyuzz Talking about Dragon 2. Some of the parts of Dragon 2 are 3D printed. I wonder if some of Model X parts will be 3D printed too? hahah..�
Jun 3, 2014
miimura You've got it backwards. Slide says "2020 Gigafactory Cell Output: 35GWh/yr, 2020 Gigafactory Pack Output: 50GWh/yr". They will be taking in 15GWh/yr of cells from other factories (existing Panasonic factories in Japan) and building packs. This does not explicitly leave anything for stationary use.�
Jun 3, 2014
SteveG3 miimura, you are correct in terms of what the slide said, however, Maknyuzz's main point is consistent from the most detailed discussion I've heard on this from Tesla... they are thinking ~35GWh/yr to go to vehicles (Fremont capacity), 15 GWh/yr for stationary. I would take these numbers forecasting for the year 2020 with a grain of salt, but JB clearly gave the same breakdown of vehicle vs. stationary packs a couple of weeks ago in this talk (starting 17:50 into the video...)
2014 Energy Storage Symposium - JB Straubels Keynote - YouTube�
Jun 3, 2014
Mr X What was up with that one guy calling himself a super genius like elon lol awkward�
Jun 3, 2014
Lump I was surprised & impressed with the number of security guards, Elon entered & exited the room with at least 2 "bodyguards".�
Jun 3, 2014
ken830 Can anyone watch the posted shareholders meeting video beyond the 54:45 mark?�
Jun 4, 2014
Grendal No. It's screwed up or not there. Read 2014 Annual Shareholders Meeting - Page 2 Familial Rhino's post #18 for what happened in the part that isn't in the recording.
I would hope that Tesla supplies the battery packs with the gigafactory for his competitors. That would go along with the need for multiple gigafactories. Another need is to create energy storage devices for the grid. That was talked about by J. B. in his recent speech at the energy conference.�
Jun 4, 2014
arg They evidently need to set up this manufacturing (whatever it is) now. Their choices are to set it up in Freemont now, then move it out to another site later, or use this site that happens to be available now. Doing it at Fremont would save cash flow, but they have plenty of cash. It's not at all clear which would save total $ cost over the period - balance of "unnecessary" rent paid now on the new site vs. moving costs later, specially as you don't know what sites might be available then - risk of more expensive lease at that time.
But absolutely clear that build-and-move would consume vastly more management time and cause disruption to production just when they don't want it (Gen3 rampup).
So this is a case of using their cash strength to take out some future risks at little or no long-term cost. Sounds like a good move to me.�
Jun 4, 2014
Jackl1956 I can't stop thinking about the image Elon used for the Model X. The changes while subtle were very profound.
To me, it seemed like Chris Porritt's influence.�
Jun 4, 2014
eepic They use extremely high quality 3D printers to print Inconel alloy in relatively low volumes at SpaceX. This wouldn't be suitable for mass manufacturing at Tesla in the current state of 3D printing technology. Here's the quote from Elon from the Dragon v2 Q&A:
"First of all, I think anything - if you can 3d print something with sufficiently good material properties, then that's the easiest way to do it. Certainly, in the volumes of a rocket company, it's harder to make it work for a car company. In the case of the SuperDraco engine, we didn't in the very beginning anticipate being able to 3d print it. We actually tried a whole bunch of normal methods of making the engine and actually those did not have great success. Then we said, well, let's give 3d printing a try and see if it'd work. Initially, we thought of it as somewhat of a Hail Mary on the SuperDraco and actually it turned out to work super well."�
Jun 4, 2014
yobigd20 I don't see any changes from the pic of the Model X on the website except for wheels and side mirrors.�
Jun 4, 2014
ecarfan Once you checked in at the front reception area and they verified you were a stockholder, they stamped your wrist and that stamp was checked three times before I got into the meeting room. There were a number of security-type guys roaming around the area.�
Jun 4, 2014
timf The picture he used was the prototype that debuted at the North American International Auto Show in 2013 and has been on display at numerous other events since then. It's the most up-to-date drivable prototype, but still nearly a year and a half old in it's design.�
Jun 4, 2014
chickensevil I just hope we can all finally put to rest any of the discussion about the 500k capacity of Fremont... Right, guys?
Seems pretty clear to me that they are purposely moving stuff that can be moved, out of Fremont to free up room to hit that 500k output.�
Jun 4, 2014
ggr Paraphrased: "I'm 11 years old, and the first stock I bought a year ago was TSLA. Thanks. Can I get a factory tour?". To which the answer was "Absolutely; talk to a Tesla representative here and we'll make it happen."�
Jun 4, 2014
tander Was anyone else blown away by the autopilot comment? I knew it was coming but not that fast..."So I think we are making some really good progress on the autopilot side, and I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exists without touching any controls." What I basically heard is that every Tesla made after this time next year and probably quite a few made before will be self driving on highways...why is this not front page of newspapers?�
Jun 4, 2014
Cosmacelf Yes, big news. I don't believe it though. I honestly think Elon is way underestimating what it'll take to get even safe freeway driving automated.�
Jun 4, 2014
Lump I typically multiply Elon's timetable by 3.�
Jun 4, 2014
SteveG3 It was quite a comment. fwiw, I interpreted "in less than a year you will be able to go..." means it will be demonstrated that this is possible in less than a year, introduction to consumers to follow.�
Jun 4, 2014
tander Fair point, I guess you kind of have to believe it when you see it. But still when I hear "less than a year" that coincides nicely with the MX ramp up, so I'm kind of wondering if the X delays have been partially dependent on the autopilot progress...if he really wants to knock people's socks off that seems like a pretty good way to do it, but I don't know, maybe all luxury cars will be coming out with that next year.�
Jun 4, 2014
ggies07 There was a question about updating accessories and Elon gave a nod to that, which I hope to see better items in the store soon. I know they have a blanket already, but it's grey and very "blah". I think they should make a very nice afghan blanket, making it red with a nice big white "T" logo in the middle. I think it would sell like hot cakes....�
Jun 4, 2014
eepic I'm equally skeptical about the timing, but I completely disagree about Elon underestimating the challenge. Some of the biggest challenges at SpaceX are avionics/guidance software. He is surrounded by some of the best controls engineers in the world at SpaceX, and he's likely gotten his hands dirty with some of the design details in that area too.�
Jun 4, 2014
Flight Risk So Tesla doesn't do racing. Disappointing. It's a shame that they won't be represented at the Nikola Tesla EV Rally.�
Jun 4, 2014
mpbruin108 A member asked him about the Coast to coast jacket. Apparently it was so nice that he was so miffed about not being able to get one online or in stores that he waited in line for a long time to ask Elon about it. As much as I want to support this guy but I don't think that would be the most pressing question I would ask Elon at this once a year event. I, actually, wanted to ask him about the possibility of (or lack of) dealership model to distribute more Model (E or Y or whatever) to appease the mass market, especially since the Model S has a wait time before delivery. I can imagine the Model X would have a delay too. I can only imagine how much delay the 3rd Generation car will have without a more widespread production and distribution strategy. But I didn't get picked on to ask a question. Oh well, maybe next year.�
Jun 4, 2014
Cosmacelf Yes, but the environment that a rocket works in is FAR less complex that a car on the freeway. Radar isn't high enough resolution to understand what is actually happening. You need vision for that. And computer vision understanding is still an unsolved AI problem.
Question, how is a car going to understand when a cop starts zip zagging across the freeway to do a full freeway hot stop?
When traffic cones are placed on the road to get everyone moved off a lane, how will the car see and understand the cones?
When an accident occurs and flares are set around a crash that just occurred, how will the car understand the scene and react accordingly?
When you are driving through a snow storm or a very heavy rain, how will the car deal with the crappy vision?
It isn't the boring, follow the guy in front you driving that is hard, it is all the exceptions.�
Jun 4, 2014
ckessel I suspect the intent is to not to address the exceptions, but just to address the simple case. The human will be required to stay alert and take over when an exception occurs just like human override on cruise control.�
Jun 4, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney He didn't say "in all circumstances". It'll be the boring, follow-the-guy-in-front that comes first, along with warnings when an exception occurs and then gradually adding exception handlers.�
Jun 4, 2014
AlMc Another factor for the X 'delay'. Why rush, orders for it are still pilling in. They are battery constrained and had already sold out their entire production for Q2 per Elon during his ER guidance call...So, they have yet to test the limit of demand for the S that they are making 25%+ gross profit on. I would like to have an X tomorrow...but from TM's perspective, they can't make cars fast enough for demand and certainly have no chance of catching up with demand until the second half of the year...at best, so their attitude 'what's the rush?'�
Jun 4, 2014
ggies07 Well, at least for these two things, I think with the car knowing it's location + getting traffic updates since it's always connected to the internet, will make it easy to correct itself on the road.�
Jun 4, 2014
eepic Computer vision and AI are two separate parts of this. With respect to the vision itself (physical sensor hardware and low level interpretation of the inputs) it's not unsolved, simply unsolved thus far at a low enough cost - see Google's LIDAR solution. The AI side of it is definitely a bigger challenge.
But what you're saying is exactly with what Elon has said previously, that the first 90% is relatively easy, then dealing with exceptions to get to 99% is exponentially harder, 99.9% exponentially harder than that, etc. That's precisely why they are making it analogous to aircraft auto-pilot (where a human is still required regardless) rather than full autonomy. Weather conditions is the biggest single challenge for current sensor technology, followed by higher level software reliably understanding unusual road conditions like you mentioned.
But, it's quite feasible in the next two years Tesla can implement an autopilot for freeways that works like an advanced cruise control you can use in ideal conditions, so long as they can sort out who's responsible when the inevitable guy falls asleep on the hour long freeway autopilot trip and doesn't wake up to take back control when required.
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Nah it'll be trickier than that to get it reliable. For example, imagine you are the first car to come across some traffic anomaly... it wouldn't be reported yet so the AI would have to determine it on its own - a significant challenge given the scope of what may go wrong in road conditions.�
Jun 4, 2014
tander I think they are pretty much planning on the mass market car to hit that 90% self driving mark right from the initial start of production or maybe even 99% so it wouldn't be that surprising if they could get to highway driving a year from now, the google program is easily in that 90-100% range right now. The end of 2016 isn't that far away for the mass market car anyway so if they plan to hit that mark it seems like they'll need to be pretty far along in development by mid 2015.�
Jun 4, 2014
Trev Page That's pretty much what I think he was alluding to. Tesla however is pretty far ahead of the competition so doing so now wouldn't really affect them on the low end of the scale due to battery costs. Anyone else taking the patents to make their own car would be still take 2-3 years or more to develop and Tesla still has a leg up. Might be some merit in him doing that.�
Jun 4, 2014
ggies07 That's true and I can see that happening, but what's the percentage that it will be the first car at the scene of a wreck as an advanced car with this type of tech? Not very high until all cars are like this. And when are cones are the road? only during accidents or construction, so why not just code the car to understand that if it sees a cone object in the distance up ahead, to go ahead and move over to another lane when it can.�
Jun 4, 2014
ecarfan Yes I agree. Elon has been careful in the past to talk about an "auto pilot" function that requires a human in the drivers seat still paying attention to the surroundings as opposed to a system that can drive the car autonomously and the human in the drivers seat can do whatever they want.
And as another poster has pointed out up thread Elon is fully aware of the extreme difficulty in an automated system handling all the potential "corner cases" that might occur while driving. Of course humans aren't very good at dealing with those either.
My concern is that a "freeway autopilot" capability will almost certainly result in some drivers thinking that they don't have to watch the road as carefully and they will be tempted to do other things even more than they do now: answer text or email on their phone (despite that not being legally allowed), put on makeup, and who knows what else!�
Jun 4, 2014
eepic Not very high, but if it misinterprets and handles it wrong, you end up as a second accident there. Actually I imagine traffic cones are a relatively straightforward case related to obstacle avoidance... quite obvious and detectable as compared to, say, a 3-pronged trailer hitch
�
Jun 4, 2014
RichardL I read a piece in the MIT online blog saying this was the exact concern that Google has - their initial plan was a 'freeway pilot' but they quickly found that the 'driver' was so inattentive that the option of bailing out and handing back control was not really viable - hence the shift to the completely automatic, no steering wheel car they recently showed.
That is a much harder problem, but avoids the simpler case with the catastrophic end-game!�
Jun 4, 2014
brysondad hence google's steering-wheel-less prototype has a 25mile speed limit - to limit the catastrophic end-game.�
Jun 4, 2014
eepic Definitely agree its a very tricky problem with human behaviour. Sounds like an intriguing article! Any chance you still have a link?�
Jun 4, 2014
Cosmacelf But you can't do that. The highway flares is something that can pop up anytime. If you are reading your book at the time, you won't see the flares. The car won't either unless it has true visual scene understanding.�
Jun 4, 2014
Zextraterrestrial T-bone that thing with a big truck..or a Tesla ..ouch
catastrophic might be a weak word for it�
Jun 4, 2014
RichardL lazy humans shaped Google's new autonomous car:
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/527756/lazy-humans-shaped-googles-new-autonomous-car/�
Jun 4, 2014
AnOutsider I hadn't seen confirmation that it was an EV before, thanks�
Jun 4, 2014
Teo The video is fixed now. It used to cut off at 54 minutes.
2014 Shareholder Meeting | Tesla Motors�
Jun 4, 2014
Chickenlittle we should all lead by example�
Jun 4, 2014
TechGuy Now did you mean for that to sound like the Disney movie or did I start to sing only because I have a three year old?�
Jun 4, 2014
yobigd20 Dude I was about to link a YouTube video of people lip syncing Let it Go haha�
Jun 4, 2014
FANGO I've got an idea, why don't we stop doxxing people and grow up? None of the comments about this guy are acceptable. Move on.�
Jun 4, 2014
JRP3 Meh, if you don't want to be publicly commented on don't publicly promote yourself as a super genius, especially with no evidence supporting said genius. Over all the QA session was really poor, he was just the worst of it. I would recommend written questions only in the future, screened to weed out the garbage.�
Jun 4, 2014
brysondad Prescreen questions is a very bad idea for corporate governance ... Especially if shareholders are in disagreement w/ management .
The guy traveled to site, stood in line, and asked a question he cared about, as is his right as a shareholder. If u want "better" questions, get in line and ask your own questions next year.�
Jun 4, 2014
JRP3 Time is limited, and wasted on crap "questions", especially when they are just pointless self promotion. His question meant other questions were not asked, and they could have been the type of question to which you referred, or at least relevant.�
Jun 4, 2014
gg_got_a_tesla I wish Elon hosts an Ask-Me-Anything session online one of these days, particularly for TMC followers. The in-person session at Teslive last year was very good but, throughput is limited that way.�
Jun 4, 2014
Auzie I am just curious if there is any screening for guns at these events. The likelihood of gun related incidents in US is quite high due to gun culture. The person that spoke at the event is clearly troubled. Elon publicly dismissed his offer so I am very worried how is that person likely to process what happened.
Powerful people and organizations do not need to use guns. Gun is a power equalizer, so people that feel lacking in power are more likely to use it.�
Jun 4, 2014
AlMc I can't believe I am going to agree on this one point with you:biggrin:.....but I agree. Prescreening questions may allow for either the deliberate or appearance that some tough questions about corporate governance never get to see the light of day. I was very frustrated with the job seeker and the people concerned about not being able to buy apparel or wanted better 'stuff' sold in the galleries. After thinking about it, anyone (including myself) who did not show up and get in line to ask a question is partially responsible for due diligence questions not being asked.�
Jun 4, 2014
Familial Rhino Actually, his first question was relevant. I seem to recall discussions on this board about Elon's plans, with some speculating that he may leave Tesla to focus on SpaceX sooner than later. Had he stopped there, it would have been one of the better questions of the session. Of course, in light of what he said next, it looks like that was only the setup for his offer to serve as vice-something or other, or CEO.
Edit: I see now that you explicitly referred to the self-promotion, so nevermind.�
Jun 4, 2014
tigerade I really wish someone asked a question about stationary battery storage. I really would have liked to hear more from Elon about it. I would have also liked to hear something about battery swap and when the next big surge of supercharges will come online.
And even though I'm 2,500 miles away, I really felt the awkwardness in that room when that guy was talking about he was a suuuuper genius. Man, I beg of any of you reading to not ask Elon for jobs at shareholder meetings in the future, including vice chairman of the board. (WTF?) It's not going to work out and it's awkward for all involved.�
Jun 4, 2014
jak If he's truly a genius, he'll let it go... let it go... and move on to other adventures. Time will tell.�
Jun 4, 2014
anticitizen13.7 The vast majority of people, even those with some kind of mental health issues, never cause trouble.
It makes me wonder what people here would have said about me if I'd gone to the shareholder meeting and asked Elon what Tesla intended to do about the possible rise of Supercharger Nomads in the future (bands or tribes of people that live in Teslas and subsist off the free Supercharger network, thereby crowding out other customers). This is a serious question I have, and I even wrote a thread about it in the Charging Infrastructure forum.
People in real life think I'm crazy� but I just think differently. I am no genius but I know it is tough when most people don't understand your thought processes.�
Jun 4, 2014
Auzie The tiny fraction of troubled people cause huge amount of damage when armed, especially if they perceive some slight or humiliation.�
Jun 4, 2014
JRP3 As I mentioned, just being there is no guarantee you'd get a chance to ask your question, especially when time is being taken up with nonsense. Tough corporate governance questions may have gone unasked because someone wanted to buy a jacket�
Jun 4, 2014
TSLAopt Fair point, but keep in mind that many of the most famous and public figures in history have been assassinated by crazies...Lincoln, MLK, JFK, John Lennon, Reagan...Elon is quickly moving towards becoming the most famous person of the 21st Century and so I put the risk as high for assassination attempts...I'm not trying to stir up fear but I see this risk of an assassination attempt being legitimate, whether it's 1% or 25% I have no idea.�
Jun 4, 2014
yobigd20 I can answer that question. Beneath the superchargers live the dark and nasty supercharger trolls. They only are summoned by huge electromagnetic fields that hover in front of a supercharging station. Stay in one stall too long and the powerful fields will awaken the hideous creatures. Upon summoning they crawl out from underneath the vehicles and seek out and slash all 21" low profile tires parked over their graves.
19s are safe though. If you use 19" tires you'll be safe from the trolls.�
Jun 4, 2014
AlMc So, you and I will go next year and get in line for our time at the microphone.:wink: I know you will have a good question...mine maybe not so! (Something about TM logos on my foam beer can holders):biggrin:
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Back to serious stuff.....I share this concern.�
Jun 4, 2014
Jackl1956 We need to idle down.�
Jun 4, 2014
vgrinshpun Could not agree more...�
Jun 4, 2014
AlMc VG, It may need to be toned down but TSLAopt's basic concern is legitimate. I will leave it at that.�
Jun 4, 2014
vgrinshpun Agree, concern is legitimate, that *is* my reason for agreeing with Jackl1956.�
Jun 4, 2014
SteveG3 TSLAopt's basic concern is indeed legitimate, but we could let go of discussing it in terms of yesterday's meeting and leave it as the general concern it is... there was this risk factor thread started a month or two ago in this investor's section.
Risks to Tesla business�
Jun 4, 2014
Jackl1956 I believe we need to get Elon's back. Specifically, a grass roots movement supporting a "Solar Electric Economy".
In a very real sense I think Elon feels as though he is standing alone. Our community should organize to advocate and support Electrical Vehicles, Solar Power, Stationary storage............the aggregates of a "Solar Electric Eononmy".�
Jun 4, 2014
JRP3 Aren't we all doing that to various degrees already?�
Jun 4, 2014
evme
Why not just have people ask their questions in advanced and let shareholders vote on the questions? This would definitely cut down on asking the same question 100 times. Though probably would not prevent this kind of situation because of his first question was fine, then he followed up on it. So he probably would have avoided the screening.
Tesla can easily deal with this by setting limits to how much you can charge at the same supercharger per day. As long as you would have asked the question in a normal way it wouldn't be a problem.
To be honest, I think the advocacy part is fine. What really needs to happen is that new writers need better education on the topic. I still see many people and articles think that lithium ion batteries are toxic and/or contain rare earth metals. Then you also have some issues on advocacy part where advocates promise technology they don't understand themselves and then when that technology does not materialize people get skeptical.
And to be honest, I don't know if there is a way to fix either. Most authors sell their articles through 3rd party aggregators and ignore the comments. And on the last part, it is kind of hard to correct people from getting ahead of themselves because there is no private messaging on comments and you don't exactly want to detract from an advocate.�
Jun 4, 2014
Tasdevil I would have liked to hear more gen3 questions, considering how it's very important it does sell well right across the globe.
I would like to see the 300miles range gen3 priced at 40k.
Considering Elons optimism to do better than 30% in battery production cost.
Elons hint to sharing teslas knowledge (and as others have said) shows he knows teslas success is linked to all car manufacturers being able to make affordable EVs.�
Jun 4, 2014
Norbert The video now covers that part. What I hear is "... so I think there is certainly the potential there, for Tesla to be one of the most valuable companies in the world, in the long term. Contingent [...] on execution. of course."
(Based on the potential of Fremont achieving a production of 500k, and then there being multiple factories in the world.)
To me it sounded like he sees that as a rather natural outcome of developments, not just as a theoretical possibility. And maybe I should add that I take him very seriously when he says something like this. Aside from that others on this forum, including myself years ago, have already talked about this possibility. It is something else when Elon says it and it sounds like he is ready to go there.�
Jun 5, 2014
Auzie Shareholders can vote according to their investment. The guy that asked "irrelevant" questions may have larger investment than others so he should not be outvoted in a democratic way, one vote per person.�
Jun 5, 2014
MartinAustin Was no-one concerned about the continued delay of the Model X and the blame being laid again on the falcon doors?
Elon seems to use terms like "incredibly difficult" when referring to the falcon doors. I assume as in, producing them to resist rain, car washes, thousands of openings and closings, and all the other real-world stresses. Same manufacturing processes any other manufacturer goes through when testing their cars for reliability.
He never says anything else is delayed about the Model X. I am minded to think that apart from the falcon doors, and the obvious strains on manufacturing capacity we have today - the Model X is ready to produce.
It could be said that a few people might buy a conventional SUV because it has innovative doors, but no-one buys a battery-electric SUV because it has also has innovative doors... they're buying it because it's battery-electric. Tesla could put conventional rear doors (with motorised handles ofc) onto it and sell it just fine if they realise they can't produce reliable falcon doors.�
Jun 5, 2014
Auzie Elon spoke about falcon doors a bit at the meeting. He said he wanted to create something akin to a work of art, he wanted people to see back seats almost framed once the door is opened. He spoke very passionately about the quality outcome he wanted to achieve, he wanted people to fall in love with the car. It seems that his bar is higher than just selling cars.�
Jun 5, 2014
Tasdevil I see the modelX as a fill-in-the-gap model while the giga factories get built for gen3.
8 years would be a long time to only have 1 model.
I would be more curious to see if tesla are working more than 1 gen3 platform car.
If the S and X are done, a scaled down version won't be as hard as one from scratch, or a wagon option.�
Jun 5, 2014
evme I find one vote per person acceptable regardless of how many shares you have.�
Jun 5, 2014
Auzie One vote per person is democracy, I find it acceptable in society but not in investing, with my money. It is not up to us to decide, corporate governance is set the way it is, votes are weighted according to investment.:smile:�
Jun 5, 2014
evme Voting based on shares would still be a democratic process. If you look at shares as votes. I guess you could easier to call it a republic though. Where you would be a representative of the votes.
The reason why I think it is better to have 1 vote per person is simple. In the case of Tesla, Musk owns enough votes to pick and chose the questions easily. Now sure he can always avoid answering questions if he wishes to, but an investor probably wants to know what questions are being avoided in case of issues. 1 vote per person insures integrity of the process.�
Jun 5, 2014
Auzie If there were 1 vote per person regardless of the investment size, then Elon could be voted out as he would have only one vote in a democratic Tesla community:crying:�
Jun 5, 2014
evme I am not talking about changing investment rules to 1 vote per person. I am talking about 1 vote per person for questions only.�
Jun 5, 2014
NigelM Mod Note: a number of doxxing posts were put in moderation while we consider what to do with them.
Edit: Mods decided to put those posts in a locked closet for now.�
Jun 5, 2014
aznt1217 The production prototype was done months ago. I think now they are just maniacally tweaking and making sure their suppliers are ready for ramp. The main delay was due to Elon's insistence on perfection. It's in the benefit of consumers to wait for an amazing product instead of a half baked one, even though Elon's idea of half baked is better than the majority's idea of perfection...�
Jun 5, 2014
Cattledog They have said they will be working on a sedan and SUV for the Gen 3 platform. Others speculate that it may also be small enough to work for the next roadster.�
Jun 5, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney The Model X will have:
- falcon-wing doors (look, shiny!)
- 4WD
- a tow rating (unless something has changed)
- a slightly more utilitarian form factor
Let me emphasize that a bit more
- 4WD
It's chasm-filling and sets them up very nicely for Gen 3 and beyond as they bring down the cost.
When Model X finally hits the market I expect an extremely positive reaction. Other manufacturers should be very scared that their cash cow SUV market is threatened. Since they're usually high margin and very inefficient they could be very vulnerable.�
Jun 5, 2014
JRP3 I don't know why you'd think a major structural redesign of the vehicle would in anyway speed up the process. I'm quite sure they were fully committed to the falcon doors before the seal issues popped up.�
Jun 5, 2014
hobbes + 1�
Jun 5, 2014
MartinAustin That major structural redesign may already be done... they are just still trying to do the falcon doors thing (which I hope they can get right), but they have a conventional doors design waiting in the wings if they need to climb down.�
Jun 5, 2014
JRP3 You're assuming they designed a conventional door fall back, including production tooling, for a vehicle that is likely going to start production in 6 months. This would require different roof panels, interior pieces, door jambs, doors, etc. I would imagine something like that would also require separate crash testing and certification. I don't know enough about vehicle production to say for sure but I doubt they have created any of that.�
Jun 5, 2014
Cosmacelf So yes I'm worried about the falcon door delay too. Given their battery supply constraints though it is entirely possible that the unexpectedly high demand for model s has allowed them to slip the model x launch without any execution penalty. Won't last forever though.�
Jun 5, 2014
yobigd20 actually do we know for sure the delay is due to the falcon wing door itself? I thought it was due to the 2nd row passenger swiveling seats ...�
Jun 5, 2014
Cosmacelf Well, Elon most recently said at the Shareholders meeting that getting the doors right was hard. But you're right, there are probably many things they are working on.�
Jun 5, 2014
AlMc No, Elon has said at least twice now that the delay is to 'perfect' the difficult engineering questions associated with the Falcon doors. There certainly may be other causes but this is the only one he has been specific about.
Yes, to the thought above that there really is no urgency to push the X out before it is in Elon's mind, 'perfect'. They can't make enough model Ss to satisfy demand. They are battery constrained until at least the second half of 2014. Elon also mentioned that 2014 would be the year they might test the demand limits for the S. So far, no where near a production number that tests the limit.�
Jun 6, 2014
MartinAustin Didn't get that far with my theorizing. I would just be surprised if they switch to that plan since it would be one more short-term set-back. (crushed by the long-term rosy future
In other news, I happen to be in the UK at the moment on business. I hope to make it down to London to observe whatever the Model S launch is!�
Jun 6, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney I thi k the launch is invite only. It's tomorrow, I believe.�
Jun 6, 2014
NigelM Mod Note: some posts went here - Super-Genii. Let's stick to business now please.�
Jun 6, 2014
stainlesssteel Buckling Doors, Dual Mode Wheel Drive, Volt-Cars and Driving Without A Clip
I thought some might find useful and entertaining this list of Seeking Alpha's mistranscriptions of the Tesla 2014 Annual Shareholders meeting:
2251683-tesla-motors-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-hosts-2014-annual-stockholder-meeting-and-public-webcast-transcript
Funny Comedy Mistranscriptions:
Buckling Doors, Dual Mode Wheel Drive, Volt-Cars and Driving Without A Clip
This transcript contains significant errors and grammatical oddities that distort meanings. Not as bad as Seeking Alpha's 4Q2012 Tesla earnings transcript http://bit.ly/1nRzszQ , but if you need to accurately quote and understand Elon--for example, writing an article or making investment decisions--it's best to listen to the original video webcast http://bit.ly/1hyOhon.
Examples format:
min:sec
Actual Tesla 2014 Annual Shareholder Meeting 02Jun2014
Seeking Alpha transcription 03Jun2014
11:11
�used to say, well, I think the car is really safe unless you drive it off a cliff, and then somebody drove it off a cliff.
�would just say I think the car is really safe unless you drive without a clip and then somebody drove without the clip.
21:23
�in particular, getting the falcon wing door right
�in particularly getting the buckling door right
22:32
dual motor all wheel drive
dual mode [wheel] drive
28:18
As people probably know, I'm not the biggest fan of fuel cells. I usually call them "fool cells."
As [Phil] probably know, I�m not the biggest kind of fuel cells. I usually call them full cells.
39:00
Delusional shareholder: I'm also a super genius like yourself.
Elon: Not sure I'm one, but all right.
Delusional shareholder: I'm also super genius like yourself.
Elon: Okay. I'm one, but all right.
40:05
I think we need to move on to another question, my apologies.
I think we need to move on to another question, mic providers?
41:04
So the intent of the Superchargers is not to create some sort of walled-garden or anything--we're actually happy to have other manufacturers�
So in terms of Superchargers, it�s not create some sort of [volt-car] or anything, we actually have to have other manufacturers...
47:20
It's rare that a day goes by when there's not some new battery chemistry that is announced. I should maybe give people a good filter for assessing any new battery chemistry in terms of its potential: the key metric is energy density...
It's rare that if it goes by when there is not some new battery chemistry that is announced. But I should, maybe good people, a good filter for assessing any new battery chemistry in terms of its potential. But the key metric is energy density...
48:10
20% of our current cell energy density.
20% of our current sold energy density.
49:07
My response always when I hear about electrochemical breakthroughs is "please send us a sample cell." That usually--well, always--has resulted in nothing happening.
My response always when I hear about electric chemical breakthroughs is please send us a sample cell that always has resulted in nothing is happening.
54:40:
And in terms of a next generation Roadster, that's probably five years away...
And in terms of next generation Roadster, that�s --
[missing section 54:43 to 59:33, including the noteworthy:
59:19
...there's certainly the potential there for Tesla to be one of the most valuable companies in the world in the long term, contingent upon our execution...]
1:12:47
Right now it's sort of more the current collectors and the main contactors and fuses
Right now, yes sort of more the current collectors and like the main contractors and fusers�
Jun 9, 2014
Student_Forever I attended the meeting in person. I tried to ask a question but was unable to. I then followed up by speaking to Jeff Evanson, the Investor Relations manager, as well as by sending my question to Elon Musk by E-mail.
The question was whether it would be possible to move the annual shareholder date from mid-week to Saturdays or at least for the later part of the week. It's not a hot topic question but as a practical matter I think it affects many shareholders.
The analogy here is with Berkshire Hathaway ("BRK") shareholder meetings (i.e. Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger), which I am also a happy shareholder of. It's just easier to attend such meetings where you don't need to take time off from work in the middle of the week especially if you live far away. Combined with popularity of Mr. Buffett, over 20,000 people from all over the world show up at BRK's meetings, which is good for sales and publicity. In fact, the event pays for itself given the huge number of visitors.
It also helps when the shareholder meetings occur at predictable dates, e.g. first Saturday of June. -- BRK's meetings are on first Sat. of May (except when there is a Mother's Day weekend, which is when the meeting is moved to the last Sat. of April). -- With this target date in mind you can plan trips months in advance.
By the way, Warren Buffett also gets lots of unrelated questions during a 6-hour (!) Q&A session. Lately they started organizing questions better. BRK collaborates with the press by letting them ask 1/3 of questions from the journalists and another 1/3 from pre-selected online submissions. Warren Buffett himself rotates around the press table and then fields the other 1/3 of questions from the audience present. These measures improved general quality of questions significantly.
Yes, security was present in abundance within the facilities as well as near the stage. That's typical for such big events and I think it was a prudent measure.
In the future Tesla might borrow another chapter from Berkshire Hathaway's meetings, i.e. where shareholders wear tags as a proof of ownership. I think that approach would be a more efficient way to manage large venues instead of having people go through their online brokerage accounts and then getting their hands stamped...
There were roughly 400 shareholders present time time. It's easy to imagine how chaotic it would be with 1,000+ people attending the meeting (or better yet 20,000+ people!). At that point, Tesla would definitely need another facility for the meeting. I came about 40 minutes before the official start. The parking lot right in front of the museum was packed with Model S cars. (Haha!)
Most people in the audience seemed to be from the IT/scientific background and/or from the nearby geographic area. So it would help to diversify the shareholder base if meetings are scheduled on weekends. I had five friends who couldn't come for this reason. In past I was unable to attend either although I have been a shareholder since the IPO days.�
Apr 22, 2015
Lump 2015 shareholder meeting official date hasn't been announced yet, anyone hear anything, June 2nd or 3rd 2015?�
Apr 22, 2015
Benz ER Q1 2015 Conference Call will be on May 6th 2015. We will know the date for the 2015 shareholder meeting a few days after that, I think.�
Apr 22, 2015
Bgarret Be nice timing to unveil the X....�
Apr 22, 2015
Lump Meeting is not for product unveilings, asking Elon to make jackets for a unique special event or a delusional individual wanting to become Co-CEO, we need DaveT & a few others asking questions focusing on the stock.�
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