I wondered what the least range I could find in a new vehicle was. I didn't grab every vehicle but I did search through the low MPG ones and skipped a lot of duplicates.
There must be some rounding up there or a reserve gallons not used for the EPA range not to match the highway mpg x gallons in tank but:
240 miles EPA range 2015 Dodge Viper SRT 21 mpg hwy x 16 gallon tank (21x16 = 336)
252 miles EPA range 2015 Cadillac CTS 18 mpg hwy x 18 gallon tank (18x18 = 324)
266 miles EPA range 2015 Chevrolet Camaro 18 mpg hwy x 19 gallon tank (18x19 = 342)
286 miles EPA range 2015 Lamborghini Aventador Roadster 16 mpg hwy x 23.8 gallon tank (16x23.8 = 380.8)
313 miles EPA range 2015 smart fortwo (either one) 38 mpg hwy x 8.7 gallon tank (38x8.7 = 330.6)
313 miles EPA range 2015 Chevrolet Spark 39 mpg hwy x 9.2 gallon tank (39x9.2 = 358.8)
318 miles EPA range 2015 Ferrari 458 17 mpg hwy x 22.7 gallon tank (17x22.7 = 385.9)
So 215 miles EPA is still below even the worst gas cars but I still find it very usable since I use a Nissan Leaf with under 100 miles epa range.�
Thứ Bảy, 31 tháng 12, 2016
Why a 215 mi range? part 2
May 24, 2016
dhanson865 May 24, 2016
JeffK Many of the high end sports cars require premium unleaded and have 20+ gal tanks due to poor fuel economy. I don't envy someone filling up a 20+ gal tank with premium $$$.�
May 24, 2016
melindav a day late to reply, but wanted to point out TeslaLiving's post on the Model3OwnersClub forum comparing cold weather range under various temps, road conditions & speeds.�
May 24, 2016
jkk_ Nice find. It seems on a cold day with snow and ice on the road TeslaLiving used 57% more than rated range. Which really proves the point, some of us really need more range / bigger batteries even though there are some posts that almost claim that "no one will need more than 215 miles / 50-55kWh battery ever!"�
May 24, 2016
Red Sage Good point. But, when you consider that most people stop to fill up when the needle indicates 1/4 tank remaining...? It seems most people consider themselves 'empty' after only using 75% of their actual range. If you check that metric against the ranges you posted:
180 miles EPA range 2015 Dodge Viper SRT
189 miles EPA range 2015 Cadillac CTS
200 miles EPA range 2015 Chevrolet Camaro
215 miles EPA range 2015 Lamborghini Aventador Roadster
235 miles EPA range 2015 smart fortwo
235 miles EPA range 2015 Chevrolet Spark
239 miles EPA range 2015 Ferrari 458?
Most people fill up well before 250 miles have been driven anyway. Take a look at what the maximum range would be if the Tesla Model ? only had 75% of the range of performance variants of other cars in the segment:
228 -- Cadillac ATS-V (304 miles)
237 -- BMW M3 (316 miles)
254 -- AUDI S4 (338 miles)
270 -- Mercedes-AMG C63 S (360 miles)?�
May 24, 2016
PJFW8 If there were available Superchargers every 50 miles or so it might work. The problem relates to availability along a reasonable travel route. When I drive now I include my imaginary Tesla. To travel from Asheville, NC to Milwaukee has a few steps where 220 plus miles between charging is needed even in winter. That is why about 300 epa would be pretty important. 320 plus would be wonderful. On the other hand, my Florida vacation works at 200 with no problem.�
May 24, 2016
diamond.g Man that is kind of depressing, going from 265 miles to 113 in 10F weather with rain/snow. That would be like 63 miles in the Model 3...�
May 24, 2016
jkk_ Yeah.. and 10F isn't even that cold or uncommon...�
May 24, 2016
Alketi They'll be far closer than that by 2020. Tesla alone is going to double their number just next year.
But, when you factor the continued and eventual electrification of the entire new car fleet, superchargers (Tesla/generic) will be littered all along the highway, and at every mall and shopping center in the country. Once there's a demonstrable profit to be made, they'll be like local gas stations, except with virtually no maintenance. They'll be everywhere -- just not quite when we hopefully get our Model 3s.�
May 24, 2016
SageBrush These range reductions should be viewed as very general rules of thumb because the use of cabin heating and/or pre-heating the car and battery before a drive make a big difference. This is why one of the two options that I really want is the cold weather package.
I was thinking about winter cabin heating on my drive to work yesterday, after I learned that Tesla uses a combined AC type system for battery and cabin temperature control. If highway driving is 15 kW and 5% is discharged as heat from the battery, some 750 watts might be available for cabin heating. Let's hope the M3 is well insulated ;-)
Sound about right ?�
May 24, 2016
JeffK One thing to keep in mind is that if the cell geometry is truly larger which means greater volume, it means that once the cells warm up they will cool off more slowly than those in the Model S in theory. Who knows, we might see better cold weather performance in the Model 3 if not all future battery packs.�
May 24, 2016
RangerRick I took his comment to mean doubling the number of *superchargers*, not necessarily the number of supercharger *locations*... I assumed much of the "doubling" to be adding more charging stations to existing supercharger stops, which wouldn't turn into a stop every 50 mild.�
May 24, 2016
RangerRick ERGH miles. This is what I get for attempting to post while on mobile.
�
May 24, 2016
Red Sage It amazes me how many of you want to continue bad habits learned from using ICE vehicles when moving to EV. The constant expression that using Superchargers should be brainless, mindless, and require no effort or forethought is rather depressing. There is no need for Superchargers to be available every 50 miles or at every exit. Before you know it, the minimum range available in a Tesla Motors product will be 300 miles. Then 400. Then 500. If the company takes the time to build Superchargers every 50 miles, most of them will be skipped, even by Model S 60 owners that have the feature activated.
I make the comparison to the 'Last Chance GAS' stations that existed in my youth. Back in the good ole bad ole days of leaded gasoline and four barrel carburetors, a car with a 20 gallon fuel tank and 8 MPG on the highway had to stop for fuel rather often on road trips. Back then, if the needle touched 'E' the car stopped. So, you absolutely had to buy gas at those remote 'bridge' locations between the arse end of nowhere and the back lot of where-the-heck-am-I. Otherwise, you'd have a long, long walk ahead of you.
Today? Those spots are long gone. With an expectation of a future of electric cars, comes the likelihood that ranges will increase tremendously. Eventually to the point where no one stops just to charge. They'll stop to fulfill biological needs, on their own schedule, and charge as well. Tesla Motors cannot afford to have hundreds upon hundreds of empty, underused, underutilized, unloved, unknown Superchargers just sitting out there in the wilderness gathering dust in the hope that someone, somewhere, will eventually need to stop to charge... maybe.
�
May 24, 2016
SageBrush Have you watched the Pixar film Wall-E ?�
May 24, 2016
Yggdrasill That won't happen. Tesla needs to add a lot of superchargers everywhere once production ramps up to 500,000 per year or even 1,000,000 per year. If they pick the locations fairly well, every supercharger they install will be busy for the next few years. And having superchargers every 50 miles along busy routes means you can stop whenever you want to, not when you're forced to. And people won't stop at the same superchargers. Some will skip a given supercharger while others will stop. This means you can distribute the load better. Especially if the car can have up to date information about supercharger availability at each location. Furthermore, if one location drops out due to a transformer issue or something, it's not a problem.�
May 25, 2016
SageBrush I know averages can be deceiving but I want to add a little perspective to this question of "how many SCs are needed." There are 3750 chargers in the US today, thus about 3750*24 = 90,000 cars serviceable a day. If each car on average charges 90% OFF SC, then 900,000 cars would saturate the system presuming daily charge, but that is not the case. A charge of 200 miles is closer to 5 days of use on average, so the SC network today would be saturated by 4,500,000 cars.
If each charger was unused 16 of every 24 hours a day, 1,500,000 cars can be serviced. These figures suggest that Tesla should look for bottlenecks rather than throw up chargers to blanket a road�
May 25, 2016
Dan Detweiler One quick reminder on the cold weather bit. It really is all about driving on a cold battery. Once the battery warms up losses are much more mundane. With the ability to pre-condition (pre-warm) a Tesla before you set out via the Tesla app, it makes the cold weather driving much easier to handle. From various owners videos I have seen, a preheated Model S will see 10-15% loss in range in 20-30 degree temps, so keep it all in perspective I guess.
Dan�
May 25, 2016
Booga Bad habits? Are you talking about staying with the pace of the highway if that happens to be 75-80mph or something else?
I agree with you that we don't need superchargers every 50 miles, but I would still like it. The point isn't to charge every 50 miles but rather not have to worry as much about planning routes as I would if I had the model 3 in hand today. The additional stations would help reduce charging congestion and also have this impact of not being required to plan things nearly as much.�
May 25, 2016
ModelNforNerd
These days, my ICE will beep at me when I get to 30 miles, and it will ask me if I'd like to be routed via navigation to the nearest gas station....
except I've tested this before....
When it says 30 miles remaining, it's really 60, as the software excludes about a gallon of gas from your range calculations, as a built-in "nanny" mechanism to make sure you get to a gas station. So yea, to your point about the car stopping when it gets to 'E'...even that doesn't happen anymore.�
May 25, 2016
JeffK My only issue with supercharger placement is after the model 3 comes out what happens at the superchargers come time for holiday travel...
People who rarely use the superchargers will be crowding them in a short period of time.�
May 25, 2016
tomp Like others have said, I suspect part of it came from an analysis of their current and planned supercharger spacing, and maybe also an analysis of what range is needed to address 'range anxiety' fears for most daily drivers.�
May 25, 2016
scaesare MythBusters (2007 season) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia�
May 25, 2016
Red Sage Many times.
![[?IMG]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vDfrO-QH3lSBUClx8g7ijHmU_ujoWeRmqnTJEb_YZHRpoZB-wuqsPjTlBazWVzO6-PBIot1h8JVPYIMr_GCO2kFFt_3NmZ67hrWC1_uV_ujLghX0N6TmvseTmeTTdDSPh_1BYivytwdCWU5xkxhJVMc1QKF_a8ww4gS2ftxECTttE=s0-d)
To paraphrase Al Bundy from 'Married with Children'... Most people strive for the American Dream -- the ability to go through life on autopilot.�
May 25, 2016
Red Sage Correct. It won't happen -- because installing Superchargers every 50 miles would be STUPID. Tesla Motors isn't stupid.
Those two sentences seem in conflict with each other -- and themselves -- and the facts.
Tesla Motors will not need 'a lot of Superchargers everywhere' at all. Within the next few years, the majority of owners will be those who are able to charge at home or at work. By the time a significant number of people considering a purchase of a new Tesla Motors product are those who are not homeowners battery technology will have improved to allow a much greater range.
If Supercharger locations are chosen well, they will be places where they can be expanded as needed. Also, there will be other Supercharger locations along busy routes to relieve potential stress on the system. And hotels/motels in the area will be equipped with Destination Chargers.
Even with ICE vehicles, certain routes are more popular than others. And even on busy corners, some gas stations are more popular than others. Some places will be busy all the time no matter what -- because they are popular. Some places will be busy only during holidays. Some places will almost never be busy. Whenever there are lines at gas stations, no one should be surprised if there are lines at Superchargers too. The word 'busy' exists for a reason.
My primary protest is to those who want Superchargers every 50 miles -- PERIOD. Whether a route is busy or not... Whether it is highly traveled or not... Whether it is between population centers or not... They want to have the convenience of a Supercharger every 50 miles, no matter what direction they drive in, no matter if they use backroads or major superhighways. Not because they expect the car to run out of juice every 50 miles... But because they absolutely REFUSE to plan road trips AT ALL and don't believe anyone else will be willing to do so.
My point is that I would highly advise anyone and everyone who cannot be bothered to learn how to read a map and plan a road trip that they should stick with an ICE vehicle until a Tesla Motors product they can afford has a 500 mile range. Otherwise, they will NEVER be satisfied with driving electric. I expect those people are not likely to become Tesla Motors Customers within the next five years anyway. That's a good thing, because I'd much rather not hear their whining and bellyaching about not being able to drive 600 miles at 90 MPH up a 6% grade in sub-freezing temperatures through hub-deep snow and gale force headwinds both ways without stopping.
It won't be a problem. The idea is to prepare for optimization instead of outright failure. Yes, the advent of Superchargers will certainly bring upon the return of The Great American Road Trip. People will drive their Model ? to places they ordinarily would have either flown, or never gone to at all. Because once people discover the joy of driving electric, they choose to drive more often.
But at the same time, more Model ? owners will be those who work 40-to-60 hours a week at a regular job. They aren't likely to have two-to-three months worth of vacation time per year. It will be more like two-or-three weeks of vacation instead. So, they'll make quick turnarounds on long weekends. Probably staying within a 500 mile radius of home. On the outside, that means they might use a Supercharger four times total on those rare occasions... maybe 16-to-20 times on longer road trips while on vacation... and their car will be happily charging in the parking lot at work or in their garage at home the rest of the time.
There is absolutely no need for the distribution of Superchargers to precisely match the availability of gasoline pumps/stations. Because, where probably less than 1/10th of 1% of ICE drivers are able to fill up at home, for some years to come better than 90% of EV owners will be able to do so at home. They won't be relying upon public infrastructure for their charging -- except when they take road trips. The very few people who may need to use Supercharger exclusively will not represent the Tesla Supercharger Armageddon that so many here constantly predict.�
May 25, 2016
Red Sage I'm pretty sure I mentioned one of them... Basically, that people just automatically stop to fill up when the needle gets to 1/4 tank remaining. One of the bad habits is that people don't actually pay any attention at all to the actual range of their cars. They don't know how far they have driven, they have no idea how much fuel their car holds, they do not know how much they put in when they fill up. They don't know how to manage their speed to improve their fuel economy. They don't realize that gasoline is not actually 'everywhere' at all. There are a lot fewer gas stations on the Interstate than there used to be. And the smaller ones are not open through the whole night.
Because of this inattentiveness, people want to just get in the car, pick a direction and GO... Then they want to blame the EV when the mistakes they make, through carelessness or stupidity, leave them stranded. I suspect that the same type of people who run out of juice in an EV are the very same ones who run out of gas in an ICE. Either way, it was never their fault, it was the stupid car. Those people would need a much higher capacity electric vehicle to travel the distance I could manage in a Tesla Model ?. They shouldn't get an EV until those higher capacity cars are available.
Even when driving ICE, I have always planned my road trips. I generally plan to make at least one stop more than necessary for fuel. That is mostly so that I do not arrive at my destination on 'EMPTY'. In reality, due to the biological needs of passengers (someone always has to GO), I usually end up stopping at least twice more than absolutely necessary to cover the distance.
The reality is that the Tesla Model ? will be a car that requires planning to take a road trip. That is a factor of the range it will offer. For those who are willing to do so, planning a road trip is EASY today, and will be easier by the end of 2017. Planning the Supercharger network for the least common denominator is not the correct path of action. Currently it seems that the Superchargers are to be primarily in the 150-to-180 mile range from each other... And on high speed routes or on difficult terrain they seem to be planned or spaced at around 80-to-90 miles apart. Both those are effective distances to handle inclement weather and low capacity vehicles today, while still being a decent distance apart to allow leapfrogging of unneeded locations by higher capacity vehicles in the future.�
May 25, 2016
Red Sage Yes. I make it a point to track fuel economy and usage in an ICE. My Friends and I use the paraphrased quote, "Fuel? We don' need no steenkin' FUEL!" when the orange nanny light comes on, because we know how much further we can go.
I had a Honda Accord Coupe that was truly awesome on road trips. I could set the cruise control to 85 MPH and make 500-to-530 miles like clock work before refueling. That was awesome. But absolutely NO other vehicle I have driven cross country has performed as well on the highway since.
With that car, which had a 17.5 gallon capacity, the most I ever had to put in on a road trip was 16.5 or so... And I had covered something like 538-to-542 miles on that tank. I would just reset the odometer each time I fueled up. Then I wouldn't even start looking for another gas station until I had covered 450 miles. I tried very hard to not stop in less than 500 miles as often as I could.
My own physical limitations mean that I probably can't drive that far any more in a single sitting (at least not back-to-back). So, the need to stop more often in an EV wouldn't be quite so grating now as it would have been in my youth. But word from so many Tesla Model S owners that they used to do banzai runs themselves, but are much more refreshed upon arrival now strikes a chord with me. Because I remember at least a couple of times that I did long road trips and was simply wasted for a day or two after I got to my Grandparent's home in Mississippi.�
May 25, 2016
Alketi Red Sage, I'm not sure what you're on about. The chargers don't need to come from Tesla. They'll come from 3rd parties -- because instead of digging up the earth and getting environmental waivers to install fuel tanks and having 18-wheelers full of gasoline drive back and forth across the country, the fuel (electrons) is already in the wires. It'll just cost a few thousand for anyone to put a 240V outlet with credit card access at a local restaurant.
When EVs make up 25/50/75/100% of all vehicles, destination chargers will be everywhere. Absolutely everywhere. Because rental cars will be EVs. Because people living in apartment buildings will be driving EVs. Because people will drive to resorts and then take day trips, and they're not going to drive 100 miles down the highway to re-charge. Because it'll be profitable for every restaurant/mall/shopping center to install pay-for-use chargers that allow people to shop/eat at the place of their choice, not just the McDonalds every 100 miles along the highway.�
May 25, 2016
Red Sage All I'm 'on about' is Superchargers. Those from Tesla Motors. That's it.
Sure, there will be charging options from other companies. I don't care about those. At all.
As for Pay-at-the-Pump options...? That won't be happening at Superchargers. For anyone that wants to try it anyway...? I give them a hearty hi-ho, "Rots-o-ruck, Raggy!" Because attempting to sell electricity for charging EVs has not been so lucrative for anyone thus far.
![[?IMG]](https://gwenbortner.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/131024-ScoobyShaggy.jpg)
I believe that chargers, in that situation, will be 'everywhere' they are needed. That's all. So, you'll be able to find them in metropolitan areas that have horrible public transportation. You'll be able to find them in urban areas with lots of high occupancy dwellings. You'll be able to find them in places where people still purchase short range EVs.
But no one else will invest in the sort of charging infrastructure that Tesla Motors offers. Others will just have one or two charging posts per location, maybe four on the outside. And they will be SLOW. Anytime they offer fast DC charging, it will be single outlet, all alone in the night. It will be downright shameful. Oh, and EXPENSIVE too.�
May 25, 2016
Alketi EVs are currently 0.5% of the new cars delivered. Of course any attempt at 3rd party charging hasn't been successful thus far!!! Let's check back when they're 25% of new cars.
The charging infrastructure that's needed is #6 copper wire plus a credit card machine. It's absolutely nothing.
I'll bet you a tall glass of whatever you drink vs. a V.O. Manhattan that by 2025 they'll be charging stations at every corner restaurant. Deal?�
May 25, 2016
Red Sage I rarely wager at all, and it seems every Carl's Jr restaurant in my vicinity has BLiNK chargers in their lots already... So... No dice!
�
May 26, 2016
AZ Desert Driver There are some "Dark Territory" regions of the US that need a sprinkling of SC. West Texas, northern New Mexico, SW Arizona. If I was a city dweller, I'd be (somewhat) worried about crowded SC and be hoping for debottlenecking of those locations. I'm more interested in being able to plan trips along convient routes that are currently not available. Every 50 miles? - seems unnecessary from my region. But, filling in dark territory seems to be a worthy goal. Refueling at truck stops, RV's and Nisson dealerships is in my future for my M3 travels.
I'm hoping for a grid of chargers...every once in a while being treated to a SC, but at least access to juice along the backroads.�
May 26, 2016
garsh I can't figure out if I want to argue with Red Sage or not. I think his strawman might be beyond what I advocate.
I do believe that the supercharger network will need to be built out a lot more than it currently is. And I believe that the best way to do that would be to prefer additional locations with few superchargers rather than adding more superchargers at fewer locations. I don't believe that they should be everywhere. I do believe that they should eventually be spaced at close intervals (even 50 miles) along routes where superchargers are commonly used (again, more locations w. fewer stations being preferred).�
May 26, 2016
SageBrush I live in the "four corners' area of the southwest US that connects AZ, CO, UT and NM. I may have seen my first Tesla yesterday, and that would be my first 'in the wild' EV ever for this region. And yet my upcoming M3 will be able to travel long distance any direction I want, today, using SCs
That is amazing�
May 26, 2016
AZ Desert Driver Are you saying that this sparse area is adequately populated with chargers and needs no infill?�
May 26, 2016
Booga Some people are happy to do the planning - in fact, I'm looking forward to it. But the average person? They don't want to have to do it a lot.
I don't think we should knock them for being different. They just value flexibility more than we do. I don't think it's such an issue that they don't think about fuel economy or how much actual range their car has. The goal is to just make it easy for them. Why are spending so much time and effort judging them?
As Tesla goes from having 100,000 cars on the road in N.A., to 600,000-700,000 by the end of 2018, and then potentially another 1 million on top of that by the end of 2020, you HAVE to multiply the SC stations for highway travel. Yes, you can expand the number of charging booths at each station, but you'll still need to add SC stations. Whether the goal is to make it easier or not, the company is naturally going to end up placing them occasionally at shorter distances, like 40-50 miles.
Given that this is a new technology, and we want greater adoption, I don't think we should be so quick to say that more SC's at shorter distances/intervals is such a bad idea.
I'm going to go ahead and say that either: (1) I disagree with you, or (2) We agree to disagree. I think Tesla has to eventually shorten the gap between SC's whether it's needed or not.�
May 26, 2016
Booga There are situations where I would benefit, like driving slightly off of the major routes and having enough charge to get back to the route and get charged, for example.
I routinely make a trip that is 150 miles, and then drive back needing another 75 miles of range to get to the current SC placed along my route. That's 225 miles of range. Depending on temperatures, headwinds, and additional travel between those two trips, there's a chance I'll be cutting it short even with a 300+ mile range on the upcoming Model 3.
The only current alternatives including charging after the first 75 miles are driven (really slow charge rate and a little silly, to be frank) or petition my destination to offer an outlet for me to plug into.
This challenge is resolved by the addition of another SC. It'll be great when we have more destination charging options, but it will require some infrastructure at my regular destination (a race track) and so I don't know if they will do it. There is a truck stop right next door and my hope is that they will put one in, because I routinely go there to use the facilities (shower rental, etc.) and could get a good charge in that time.�
May 26, 2016
Topher Except that they have stated in public that it will be standard.
This is not a fixed cost regardless of whether Model ?s include free supercharging or not. More cars using the network increase the number of stations needed for the same satisfaction level.
Thank you kindly.�
May 26, 2016
ModelNforNerd
Except they walked back that guarantee.
So if you get the base model/small battery, expect to tack on a fee to enable access, a la the Model S60.�
May 26, 2016
stopcrazypp Even though I will be unlikely traveling to the places mentioned, I do agree that Tesla first needs to fill in those gaps rather than focusing on adding more stations near cities, given the SC network's primary mission is to support long distance travel. There are many interstate routes Tesla has yet to cover.�
May 26, 2016
SageBrush The average person will not buy an EV for quite a few years yet. And some of them will be married to people who can handle the arithmetic.�
May 26, 2016
stopcrazypp Tesla has since clarified that all Model 3 will have the capability of supercharging standard (AKA hardware standard), but they haven't decided on whether supercharging will be free.
"All Model 3 will have the capability for Supercharging. We haven�t specified (and aren�t right now) whether supercharging will be free."
Tesla Misses Q1 Goal, Clarifies Model 3 Supercharger Status�
May 26, 2016
SageBrush Eventually, yes. But I'll hazard a guess that more than one empty charger spot does not a more satisfied customer make, and with a few well publicized exceptions, SCs sit empty these days. I don't mean to say that a stop is not utilized at all, but that they are over-built with multiple charger stations to cover a lot of future growth.�
May 26, 2016
Booga I wouldn't even mind if instead of a full blown supercharger station, they just work with truck stops or some other convenient location and setup 2-3 high powered charging bays for these more remote locations. It's additional business for the truck stop or restaurant and Tesla would likely have to handle electric costs and all of the build out and maintenance.�
May 26, 2016
Topher No, Elon said that the cheapest model would be minimum 215 EPA range. That is a careful statement which totally ignores 'real world'.
But should it? Let's take I-90, this is a full cross-country interstate. If Tesla determines that its predicted fleet needs 3000 chargers along that length (pulling a number from the air), should those chargers be in 20 stations 150 miles apart, 60 stations 50 miles apart, or 3,000 stations 1 mile apart? Clearly that last is wrong, but I don't see how 20 stations are better than 60. There are some fixed costs that push the optimum toward fewer, larger stations, but customer convenience and safety push the other way. Since I have no idea what those fixed costs are, and can't imagine them being overwhelming, I see
Tesla needs to build SC for the current fleet, as well as the upcoming fleet, (and hopefully the non-Tesla fleet as well). Nor do I see minimum range constantly increasing. It is an engineering trade off, and Tesla is on the side of more cars, rather than more range. I don't envision a lot of 500 mile range vehicles, particularly if we get sensible about other things as well.
Why would Tesla ever build a Supercharger where there was no demand? Given demand why would all of that demand necessarily go to some other charger? Not every person is starting from the same place and going on the same journey. Taking the I-90 example above, why would everyone suddenly visit only odd numbered SC, and not even numbered ones? That's nuts, especially when they know the wait at the even numbered ones is less.
The electric fleet is going to be doubling in size at least nine times in the next decade or two. Chargers will need to be matching that at least somewhat closely.
Thank you kindly.�
May 26, 2016
ucmndd I think the assumption that public charging stations need to rise linearly with the size of the fleet is not sound logic.
First, with rare exception, the SC network is highly underutilized. In the early build out, location was the most important aspect, to enable long distance travel along an interstate route. You had to have one at fairly standard intervals, without much regard for how often it would be used, in order to make that vision a reality.
Second, the vast majority of EV charging is done at home. If we have 9x more EVs on the road, and 90% of their charging is done at home, you'd really only need to double the number of SCs for everything to be fine. There are some complexities introduced around peak travel times like holiday weekends and such - but most of the time there's no problem.�
May 26, 2016
JeffK I bet we'll see more and more destination chargers before a ton of public charging stations crop up.
Also, might even be good business for gas stations with convenience stores to install charging spots....�
May 26, 2016
stopcrazypp I think it largely depends on how many stalls per station would those gaps imply. For less popular routes, Tesla seemed to have settled on 4-6 stalls per station. If a 50 mile gap means 2-3 stalls per stations, then I think Tesla will prefer less stations with a bigger gap since that reduces overhead.
And for future expansion, it depends on how well prepped the station is for expansion. If there is extra capacity in the transformer for installing more stalls, Tesla can save a lot of money by expanding the number of stalls instead of installing an entirely separate station.�
May 26, 2016
Topher Yes, that is exactly what I was saying.
Which is why I claimed nothing of the sort. If you think the current chargers are sufficient for nine doublings in the number of cars, I beg to differ. Tesla talked at the reveal of doubling the number of Superchargers, when they were thinking that the number of cars was going to double (not hextuple). How much of that is infilling and extending, and how much is increased capacity, I don't know.
Thank you kindly.�
May 26, 2016
stopcrazypp They way you responded seems that you disagreed with Mkorpal's statement that while Tesla includes the hardware, the activation might cost money (same as in autopilot and certain batteries).�
May 26, 2016
gregincal You shouldn't have to do any math. That's the whole point of the trip planner. The car will tell you when you need to stop at a supercharger.
Everything else being equal, though, it is nicer to have more choices about when to stop. If I want to supercharge over lunch I don't want the placement of the one supercharger I have to stop at determine when I should have lunch. Necessary? No, but it is nice having superchargers close enough that you have a choice of which ones to stop at. Tesla seems to agree, since while they aren't always 50 miles apart, they do seem to be aiming at 75-80 miles apart in California (which presumably is the forefront of what everywhere will look like eventually). That gives you the option of skipping a supercharger and going to the next one if you want.�
May 26, 2016
ucmndd I suppose you'll have to forgive my confusion.�
May 26, 2016
SageBrush Friend 'A': Let's do lunch in Los Angeles
Friend 'B': A new place has opened in San Diego ...�
May 26, 2016
Langmuir A bit earlier there was a debate about motorway speeds. Bear in mind that most of Europe (where I expect roughly 1/3 total sales) has a speed limit of 81 mph (130 km/h), with traffic flowing at around 85... In Germany, many parts have no speed limit at all, and by driving 130 km/h you're quite slow... Even I with an MPV, usually full of stuff, when driving through Germany I set my cruise control at 85-90 mph...
Nobody will drive 60 mph on a motorway here... Therefore, a bigger battery pack is a necessity.�
May 26, 2016
Topher Sure, happy to.
Thank you kindly.�
May 26, 2016
SageBrush Facts�
May 26, 2016
Booga This is the exact scenario. (I'm not familiar with the geography)
I will often make a trip and a debate like this comes up. With an ICE, you can fill up very quickly and be on your way. It's not nearly as easy in this case, which is why additional range is helpful. Granted, you start every trip with a full tank as long as you can charge at home, so that certainly helps, but doesn't change the scenario where you may have already driven 200 miles and there is a debate about where to eat, how much further it is, etc. and unless the place you want to go is near a charging location, you've suddenly added 30 minutes to your trip. The more superchargers they have and the more places with other electric charging systems, the easier adoption will be.�
May 27, 2016
Red Sage This is a really good idea that has been suggested multiple times. I still don't want to see it happen. Because you'd still have to go to places where the odor of gasoline fumes and aroma of diesel exhaust are prevalent. You'd still see the stains and spills and dirt and grime left by the passage of ICE vehicles. I would much rather that Tesla Motors built their own facilities on US Highways. Let the guys at Travel Centers of America, Love's, and SHEETZ stick with ICE as long as they can. They will adopt EV coverage on their own in time.
I imagine that a Tesla Waypoint or Tesla Depot would cater to electric vehicles. They'd be spaced roughly 450-to-600 miles apart along major East-West Interstate Highways. Each one would have perhaps 16-to-36 Supercharger stalls, all covered with a solar panel canopy, and arranged to allow for easy access while towing. Regular parking spaces would have CCS/CHAdeMO/J1772 power connectors for other EVs. There would be a food court with a convenience store on site -- but without tobacco or alcohol sales. Each would have a Service Center on site, and a Tesla Store as well. Naturally, there would be a lounge and lavatories and other amenities like a car wash there, and possibly even a battery swap station.
If there were perhaps 24-to-36 of these locations across the US, it would go a long way toward validating the EV experience to the public. People must see that driving long distance with an EV is a real thing, not some fantasy, or fly-by-night fad. The idea is to allow folks to see that Tesla Motors is not going anywhere. And seeing evidence that they employ people in local areas in decent, well paying jobs can't hurt either.�
May 27, 2016
Red Sage I am rather certain that it is not a case of Tesla Motors choosing one over the other. I believe that there is hidden resistance to the expansion of the Supercharger network in the US. When I see how many Superchargers have been installed in China and Europe over the past two years, and then note the fact that a small fraction of those could have covered all of I-10 and I-20. Superchargers can be built rather quickly. But negotiations with landlords, getting permits, and navigating local regulations can take time. The 'gaps' will be filled. It will happen much more quickly than some expect, even if it happens a lot later than some of us have hoped.�
May 27, 2016
ModelNforNerd
Except out here on the East Coast, they've been putting some of the SC's in rest stops along major highways, like the Jersey Turnpike, so you're still going to get some of that "road trip atmosphere" anyway.�
May 27, 2016
voip-ninja I actually see plenty of motorways listed by country in that list with a speed of 130km/h just as he described.
There's also posted speeds and the speed traffic actually moves at. Try doing the posted 70mph on the M1 during fast travel times and see how that does for you.
But far be it from me to intercede when someone from the USA tries to tell a European what their highway speeds are like.�
May 27, 2016
ModelNforNerd
An ironically uppity attitude on an American website, waiting on the American car to arrive in Europe.�
May 27, 2016
Red Sage And Elon Musk has said, before the Model ? Reveal Part I, that it was absolutely necessary that a 200 mile range, in a realistic fashion, is achieved with Model ?. 200 miles minimum, while driving normally -- not when hypermiling at substandard speeds, or in perfect weather, or only on flat ground. That is his stated concept of 'Real World' range.
No. I will never argue in favor of anything being 'brainless'. Easy? Sure. But lobotomized, automatic, or sleep walking...? NO. The world is a better place when people think.
This hypothetical seems to be completely off the rails (yes, on the crazy train
But, yeah... Tesla Motors will determine the dispersal of Superchargers to cover the needs of the cars they build. In some places, they will be very dense, to provide for those owners who live in urban areas. In some places they will be rather frequent, to take care of popular routes. But in most places, Superchargers will be spaced so that they allow for easy access over a given terrain, in the weather conditions observed for the area, while still meeting the needs of the traffic that flows through that area.
The current fleet of Tesla Motors' Supercharger enabled vehicles is all capable of 200+ miles of range. Every single one of them. Not some, not half, but ALL of them. So, a Supercharger network with locations spaced 150 miles apart is just fine, even during inclement weather conditions. Plus, it seems that in high speed areas of the US Interstate, Tesla Motors intends to build out the Superchargers at around 80-to-90 miles apart.
The minimum range of the majority of ICE vehicles has been steadily increasing since 1976, due to the EPA mandated Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements. Those who insist that ICE is 'better' that EV, and go so far as to state that ICE will 'ALWAYS be BETTER' often point out the extreme cases of range that can be achieved. Yes, it is a rather disingenuous point, because those very same gearheads also hate to be reminded that they were against the CAFE regulations, and improved fuel economy, and the emissions controls, and the computer controls, and every other advance of the past forty years that allowed ICE to remain viable.
Though EVs are well above current CAFE standards, they do lag behind in range. The idea is to make sure that there is no remaining argument in favor of ICE. So faster charging and battery swap were introduced. And Performance of EV has been proven to demolish ICE in most Real World applications. So, the remaining benchmarks are Top Speed and Range. There is no place other than race tracks in the US to consider cruising at 300 kph (186 MPH) or faster for any great length of time. So, that leaves Range as the final hurdle to prove once and for all the dominance of EVs.
Sure, an 85 kWh capacity is about the same as 2.5 gallons of gasoline in energy potential. There aren't any Real World passenger cars that will take you over 250 miles on 2.5 gallons of gas. And even a Prius would get you only half that distance on that quantity of fuel. That should be enough to prove the point, but it isn't, because a Prius may burn more gas, but can travel a much further distance.
For the point to be proven so that no one has any argument at all, there must come a time when a fully electric vehicle not only matches, but greatly surpasses the range of ICE vehicles. Once a battery pack has a capacity that allows for the energy equivalent of 5 gallons of gasoline to be held in an affordable EV, it is over. And once that improves to allow the energy equivalent of 10 gallons or more, people will be truly amazed that they ever even considered using ICE as a primary form of transportation.
As battery technology improves, fewer battery cells will be needed to contain a given capacity. Thus, the cost for battery cells per car will go down, though the capacity goes up. So the electric cars will have battery packs that weigh less and provide more range. There is no reason for this to stop.
Tesla Motors shouldn't build Superchargers where there is no demand. I say that they won't. My point is that too many are arguing that they should do so anyway, and that is WRONG. Several Tesla Enthusiasts have joined with Tesla Naysayers and have stated they want Superchargers at every exit, or every 15 miles, or every 30 miles, or every 50 miles -- in every direction, on every road, street, or highway throughout the entire United States of America. I firmly disagree. Because though that would be extremely convenient, it would also be a waste of resources, both physically and financially.
People choose the places they stop while traveling for various reasons. Maybe they like the food, shopping, or amenities at one location more than others. Maybe they think one site is more secure, less 'seedy' than another. Maybe they do so out of pure habit. Maybe they like the view. But along popular routes, there are always stops that are more popular with travelers than others. And at some of the places they stop, because they are popular, the service and the wait may be longer. The 'why' may change from one site to another, but people will stop there anyway if they determine the experience they crave is 'worth it'. And sure, some will choose the opposite strategy and just stop at the least popular locations to avoid crowds and waiting as a priority.
When travelling cross country, I would always stop at Carrow's on the East side of El Paso. On my way to Mississippi, I'd stop there for Dinner. On my way to Los Angeles, I'd stop there for Breakfast. Since that Carrow's is now closed, I now stop to eat at the Cracker Barrel on the West side of El Paso instead.
That means that Tesla Motors has a decade or two to REMAIN ahead of the curve. Because, their Supercharger network is already ahead of the pace. There is no reason to expect they will fall behind. Especially when the entire Supercharger network that existed through March 31, 2016 is due to be DOUBLED by the end of 2017. And the majority of owners will charge at home or at work for the duration.
You are always most welcome.�
May 27, 2016
Red Sage Indeed. I believe that some SHEETZ locations already feature J1772 chargers on site. And if you watch closely, it seems a lot of the Supercharger locations that Bj�rn Nyland stops at in Europe are in close proximity to SHELL stations.�
May 27, 2016
SageBrush I must admit to the conviction that posts that tell Tesla what to do should always include, at a minimum, "I am willing to PAY for .."�
May 27, 2016
ohmman mod note: One post moved to snippiness.�
May 27, 2016
ImEric No, Musk and Straubel have stated that the ? will get at least 200+ real world miles. Here's a link to the first time he said it, during the End of Range anxiety Q& A
Here's where I first read about it:
Musk: Tesla Model III Must Have 200 Miles �In Real World� - Gas 2
*direct link to audio, listen at 16:30.
http://audio.transportevolved.com/TeslaPressConfMarch19.mp3
I've heard him say it a couple of other times since then, but It took me 25 minutes to find this one, so I'm not going to search for more references. The point is, they'll be delivered with at least 200 miles of range in the real world. And this will be for the cheapest base model ?.�
May 27, 2016
stopcrazypp I think his point was that most speed limits in Europe is not 130km/h. Similar to how here in California, that while the highest posted speed limit is 70mph and there are plenty of highways with 70mph limits, most highways have 65mph limits.�
May 27, 2016
stopcrazypp I'm not sure if you two are necessarily in disagreement. Elon was very clear the 215 referred to EPA miles, and when he says 200, he refers to "real world". However, the subtle part is he has never said 215 miles "real world".�
May 27, 2016
Topher I'll be happy to show you the highway.
There is a supercharger about 50 miles from me, but it is almost that many miles out of my way for the vast majority of the driving I do.
Thank you kindly.�
May 27, 2016
Topher I guess I am more concerned (here) about what he says about what the Model 3 will get, rather than he said about what it must have. One is a promise about an actual car that he has actually built (2 of), rather than a design goal, for a car he has in his head.
Nor am I sure yet what Elon thinks is the conversion of EPA to real world.
Thank you kindly.�
May 27, 2016
SageBrush 200 "Real World" : 215 EPA is my guess.�
May 27, 2016
ModelNforNerd
I'm a little further up, so I don't get Sheetz around me.
MA is looking to pass a bill encouraging more EV friendly city planning, such as EV-only parking, and I imagine some businesses and hopefully cities and towns, take that and run with it as far as charging stations.
I've seen the occasional town (sadly nowhere near me) that even has a ChaDeMO in the wild. There are a few in VA that come to mind (Norfolk area and out by Roanoke), as well as at least 2 destination chargers owned by government entities in the Richmond area.
It will take time, but people are catching on.
I expect things to pick up speed in the early half of 2018, when Model 3's begin trickling in to the Eastern time zone.
There is an off-chance that there are some proactive civic leaders out there that would like to get ahead of this....but I won't hold my breath.
(but I should give credit to NJ, for working out SC placement along the Turnpike with Tesla. as an I-95 corridor traveler, that stretch is huge to have "plugged in")�
May 27, 2016
LargeHamCollider 215 should be very close to 200 real world for people in mild climates, I was hoping for 230ish but 215 will do.�
May 27, 2016
Red Sage Uhm... The Highway to [HECK]...? No, thank you!
150 miles apart seems to be the general metric for how Superchargers had been spaced from each other for a while. It is right at 75% of the Model S 60's 208 mile range, and just about 70% of the 215 mile range for Model ?. It has been my observation that those who want to 'Drive It Like You Stole It!' consider the 'Real World' range to be no more than 70% of EPA rated range.
I'm not at all sure what you mean by the sentence, "150 miles could only give 65 miles of range after one leaves the highway, in the best conditions." Could you explain it to me, please? I don't get how having Superchargers 150 miles apart from each other would only allow you 65 miles to use.
Personally, I'm hoping that the EPA Certified Range for Model ? in base form is between 225-to-250 miles. The proliferation of Superchargers and Destination Chargers should be able to fill a bunch of perceived 'holes' out there. I expect those who would regularly drive to 'The Ends of the Earth' realize that if they do not have a charging option on site, they should probably wait until an EV exists with at least a 350 mile 'Real World' range before buying one.�
May 27, 2016
Topher Hey! Boston is actually a nice place. ...when it doesn't snow 8 feet.
Around here with have these things called 'surface roads', they are like highways, but only one lane per direction. I often drive for hundreds of miles on these roads. To visit my SIL's father's place I would need to travel 40 miles in the wrong direction, and then take a horrible route instead of the beautiful coastal route. Adding 50 minutes to driving time.
But really you haven't given a single piece of evidence that 150 miles is the optimal distance. Or evidence that adding more SC stations is more work than doubling the range of millions of cars. That just doesn't sound sensible.
Thank you kindly.�
May 27, 2016
ModelNforNerd it seems like only my posts get moved to "snippiness", but I could think of a few other worthy candidates. this thread, to borrow from its earlier discussion, has been downhill for quite some time now.�
May 27, 2016
Langmuir Well, they are just completely wrong...
For instance, Netherlands and Luxembourg also have 130 km/h, not 120 km/h... These are the countries I've driven through in a last couple of months.
I am also sure about Hungary being 130, not 120 (just checked here Google Maps
More accurate list can be found here.
Speed limits by country - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
--> if one wants to have a proper range on European motorways, bigger battery is necessary.�
May 27, 2016
roblab Same here. I never use it. Since I charge at home, it is too close. I don't use any superchargers near me. The one on my way was 230 miles away. Perfect. Now they have another one on my way, at 130 miles, so I can go faster if I want.
But the point is, where should they put chargers? In my limited experience (since Model S first came out), there were NO superchargers, and every few months, every year, there are many many more. If you think they should have one directly on your preferred route, chances are that they will. Doesn't do any good to worry about it.
For the first few years, we used a lot of RV parks. This last trip (5000 miles), not one. One long jump of an equivalent 280 miles. Probably in a year or so, that will be only old war stories.�
May 27, 2016
roblab A promise? Really? You're quite a character to figure that a businessman is somehow held to anything he says about what he would like to happen. And here again, why the worry? If he makes his target, everyone will be happy. If some are unable to be happy, they should not buy Tesla. But worrying in public does no good at all. Unless you are interested in doing no good. Hmmmm.�
May 27, 2016
Dan Detweiler Soooo....
How's the weather in your neck of the woods guys? Beautiful down here. Lovely day....
Dan�
May 27, 2016
Red Sage I grew up in Mississippi. I am fully aware of such roads. As a Circuit Pastor, my Grandfather drove them every Sunday.
OK. I honestly can't think of any place I would need to travel that would be quite so inconvenient for Supercharger use. I look at the proposed map for 2017, and I feel giddy. Because no matter whom I needed to visit in California, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, or Georgia the area is well covered. Even those few folks in New York, Connecticut, and Vermont are covered. In each case, the Superchargers I'd use to reach them will be 'on the way' instead of 'out of the way'.
At this point, I'm not sure what you would consider 'evidence'. I am certain that no Tesla Motors product will have a total range less than a Nissan LEAF. So, I am confident that spacing Superchargers at least 80 miles apart should be sufficient on high speed routes, like those in Texas posted at 85 MPH. And, I believe that putting Superchargers around 150 miles apart in places where the speed limit is 65 MPH or less will be fine. In a world where the usable range for an EV will probably be over 300 miles well within the next decade, Superchargers at 'every 50 miles' or 'every exit' would be largely unused. Keep in mind that by 'Supercharger' I mean a dedicated location with at least eight charging stalls. Not just a two-stall site in the corner of a gas station next to the air/water machine. Someone else can install CHAdeMO, CCS, or J1772 that way if they like, instead.�
May 27, 2016
Red Sage "Looks like another perfect day...
"I love L.A."�
May 27, 2016
Topher Sure, didn't it sound like that to you? Let me rephrase: I think Elon Musk would be disappointed if he couldn't reach his design goal of a few years ago (yet). I think he would stop at nothing to make sure that what he said at the reveal comes to fruition. But what he said at the reveal also included a distinct objective standard against which his statement can be judged. "EPA rated at 215 miles of range" No one will have an question about whether he met that requirement. "200 miles of real world range"? That would be a 50 page forum argument.
Not sure what you are talking about here. What worry do you think I have? Why the questioning of my motivations?
Thank you kindly.�
May 27, 2016
Red Sage Yeah. Pretty much perfect.
�
May 27, 2016
Topher Evidence: Something which increases the Bayesian probability of a hypothesis (or decreases it).
Where do the numbers come from? 150 miles apart seems to work great for the middle of a long journey. Not so much for either end, as my example shows. For local-ish journeys, say a round trip of 100 miles, it fails miserably.
A grid of 80 miles apart seems borderline for roundtrips, the SC would need to be *on* the route. Every exit? Around here, that would be way more than needed, but our exits are every couple of miles.
That same world has 50 times as many cars needing supercharging. All the chargers will be full on the Wednesday before thanksgiving. And it seems unlikely that any particular station would be generally under used. There is no pattern to everybody's trips that makes fewer larger stations more viable. 10 years is less than the life of a car, hopefully especially a Tesla. Whatever they do, they need to not strand their initial buyers of the mainstream car. That mean spacing based on 150(?) miles range in worst case.
Perusing supercharge.info it seems that Tesla's current spacing is about 85 miles (slightly longer in the midwest). Local round trips are troublesome in some places with spacings around 110 miles. Unless one lives in Nebraska, North Dakota, or Arkansas, in which case Elon hates you.
Thank you kindly.�
May 27, 2016
Topher Hold on, 2017! Where did you see that?
Thank you kindly.�
May 28, 2016
diamond.g All this SC talk should be in the SC thread...
Sadly adding to the noise, if you are using a SC for a local trip you are doing it wrong... (At least based on what Tesla says)�
May 28, 2016
Topher Local-ish, as opposed to one-way long distance was what I meant. If one is doing a one-day round trip which is further than half the range, a supercharger is the only way that it can be done at all. I am quite sure that Tesla is fine with that.
Thank you kindly.�
May 29, 2016
Red Sage The ability to conveniently travel beyond a strictly local sphere, as one would with an ICE, is paramount. I know that I am fine with that. It truly astounds me that so many are 'Agin It'.�
Đăng ký:
Bài đăng (Atom)