May 29, 2013
RABaby The speculation ends tomorrow - or does it? There is always something new around the corner, Elon makes sure of that.�
May 29, 2013
Norse Would be some big moves tommorow then
�
May 30, 2013
Benz You can bet on it.�
May 30, 2013
Benz Have you guys seen this photo of a 17 inch touchscreen in a Tesla Model S?
The owner has tweeted this photo, after the doing the latest upgrade on his Tesla Model S.
Interesting isn't it?
Here is the link:
https://twitter.com/ElectricRdTripS/status/340118296512847874/photo/1
New info:
CORRECTION - Those are actually markers of where he charged, NOT SUPERCHARGERS. SORRY FOLKS! MY MISTAKE!�
May 30, 2013
gregincal Just to be clear, it's a map of all the places they charged on their cross country road trip last December.�
May 30, 2013
Iz Is that an "all road lead to LA" map? :biggrin:�
May 30, 2013
Benz Sorry, but just only 1 minute after your post I had corrected it.
My excuses for this post.�
May 30, 2013
efusco Someone please tell me where/how to listen to the announcement...�
May 30, 2013
mnx ir.teslamotors.com
or go directly here: Tesla - Events Presentations�
May 30, 2013
DJ Frustration Tesla - Events Presentations�
May 30, 2013
aznt1217 here we go ladies and gents�
May 30, 2013
Lump Tesla - Events Presentations�
May 30, 2013
efusco thanks�
May 30, 2013
Iz Thank You�
May 30, 2013
brianman To my knowledge, the hub for all (recent?) Tesla announcements is ir.teslamotors.com.�
May 30, 2013
DonPedro The news is out: http://www.teslamotors.com/no_NO/about/press/releases/tesla-dramatically-expands-supercharger-network-delivering-convenient-free-long�
May 30, 2013
DJ Frustration Not sure there are any surprises here. Most of this is news that has already been assumed.�
May 30, 2013
Owner In addition to the expansion of the Tesla Supercharger network itself, Tesla is improving the technology behind the Tesla Supercharger to dramatically decrease the amount of time it takes to charge Model S, cutting charging time in half relative to early trials of the system. The new technology, which is in beta test mode now and will be fully rolled out to customers this summer, will allow Model S to be charged at 120 kW, replenishing three hours of driving in just over 20 minutes.�
May 30, 2013
joefee 90-120 KW! 2/3 recharge in 20mins!�
May 30, 2013
Owner Tapering point later in charge.
will also help avoid backlogs at the busy stations�
May 30, 2013
markb1 Supercharger page was just updated:
Supercharger | Tesla Motors�
May 30, 2013
SFOTurtle The 20 min charge time for 2/3 battery was for a 60 kWh battery.�
May 30, 2013
Owner Rolled out within 3 months.�
May 30, 2013
Discoducky YES!
A non-Tesla car is parked in a dedicated Supercharger stall, what should I do?
Please call 1-877-798-3752 and select option 3 for attack dogs (attack dogs are optional)�
May 30, 2013
JohnQ Cross country on I-80 ... woohoo!�
May 30, 2013
dm33 Is the faster charge rate what Elon meant by being able to recharge the car FASTER than filling a gas tank? Still seems quite a bit longer.�
May 30, 2013
JohnQ The "future view" slider is really cool.�
May 30, 2013
gregincal No.�
May 30, 2013
Owner Yes, the map is very useful.
Looks like you can do pacific coast this fall, cross country this winter.
Even earlier looks like you can go this summer down 101 in CA
Red dots - completed
Grey dots - in process�
May 30, 2013
JRP3 Paraphrase: "SC is not harmful to the battery, longer times at higher SOC, keeping the cell voltage closer to electrolyte breakdown voltage, is more problematic"
That's what I've been saying :biggrin: http://ephase.blogspot.com/2011/10/battery-electrolyte-breakdown-voltage.html�
May 30, 2013
JohnQ Did he just say "and are they actually being used" as part of info available from the touch screen? Wonder if that's a future enhancement tip-off.�
May 30, 2013
JRP3 �
May 30, 2013
AMPd Looks like there's another SC station coming to Sacramento, my guess is this one will be on the I-80 side.
Probably going to be at the Westfield galleria mall in Roseville.
Wow at the fall 2013 map, that is awesome!�
May 30, 2013
AndrewBissell 5th part of trilogy June 20th�
May 30, 2013
moltenfire And then nothing to say for a while�
May 30, 2013
ckessel Exciting, but bummed I still can't get from Portland to San Francisco until "Fall 2013" which basically means by the end of the year.�
May 30, 2013
toastypasta june 20th is "an in person thing"
Must be a big big deal.�
May 30, 2013
joefee Wow�the MS really is the future now�grid free charging...nothings comes close!�
May 30, 2013
Iz Seems as if the proposed SC map will reduce battery swapping requirements.�
May 30, 2013
gnelson I am surprised the I-10 or I-40 corridor won't be complete until 2015. Even though these corridors are lacking this is fantastic news.�
May 30, 2013
GlennAlanBerry Nice to have stationary battery packs, along with solar PV panels that charge them, for off-grid capability in the future. Elon even mentioned the "Zombie Apocalypse" in a joking manner! Go Elon!�
May 30, 2013
ShortSlaver These questions are pretty awful. How has no one asked a compelling question...�
May 30, 2013
ckessel The Q&A is sort of pissing me off. Multiple variants of "But, you won't have them on every single road everywhere right away?" Well, duh dumbass, you first make trips possible then fill in for flexibility.�
May 30, 2013
slyastro And no one asks about the CHADEMO adapter !! That would be a pertinent question IMHO!!�
May 30, 2013
deonb Interesting. 2 current stations have grid storage.
Isn't there also 2 stations with Teslabelisks? Does that mean the Teslabelisk is the grid storage battery?�
May 30, 2013
efusco Coy on battery swapping..."fan of optionality"�
May 30, 2013
teslasguy Ok, so Elon just laughed and hedged big time on the battery swap idea.
IMHO he has definitely not written that basic idea off.�
May 30, 2013
stevezzzz On the new Supercharger page the text says, "Winter 2013 - Coast-to-coast travel via I-80". But the Winter 2013 map shows the first west-to-east route will actually take I-15 from SoCal to Utah, I-70 across Utah and Colorado, leave the Interstate system in eastern Wyoming and pick up I-90 across SD, MN and WI. Finally picks up I-80 around Chicago.
Supercharger | Tesla Motors
And I'm not feeling the love for Canadian owners...�
May 30, 2013
greencharge What are you doing for the "mainstream buyers"
we are making a great car, taken the dealerships out, financing and fueling for free on your road trips....what else do you want mainstream buyer�
May 30, 2013
teslasguy Interesting that the Supercharging station nearest me in Newark, DE is the second busiest to date.�
May 30, 2013
markb1 Elon just said he thinks there are 10 supercharging connectors at Harris Ranch. Really?�
May 30, 2013
StapleGun Was it just me or did Elon seem like he was being very careful with his words when talking about battery swapping? To me it felt like he was trying to not give away the June 20th announcement.�
May 30, 2013
Iz I think he seemed to distance himself away from battery swapping.�
May 30, 2013
brianman Supercharger Announcement 2013/05/30�
May 30, 2013
Lloyd My guess is that the ones with Solar panels are the ones with grid storage!�
May 30, 2013
Galve2000 What's the difference between a grey dot and a red dot? as you move the slider from left to right, some grey dots change to red. does this signify planned vs oprational? any idea?
Any idea where the new CT and PA chargers will be located? I've not yet driven from NYC to Pittsburgh, PA via I-80 (I usually take I-76 but would would love to try I-80 given the existance of superchargers!)
Finally.. I see a proposed Supercharger on Long Island... How exciting!!�
May 30, 2013
jeff_adams Elon has called it a "demonstration" in the past. My guess, he will have TV cameras there from the major networks. I'll bet he'll do it in Hawthorne. Lots of fun speculation in the mean time. The big magic trick......�
May 30, 2013
Right_Said_Fred Wow, 230+ supercharging stations by 2015.�
May 30, 2013
Odenator So I'm wondering what the second grey dot on the map next to Woodburn, OR represents. Stayton? Too bad there's no love for Bend, OR. That would have been a great place to stage trips to SE Oregon.�
May 30, 2013
BryanW Steve, I was wondering the same about the I-80 comment and map mismatch...�
May 30, 2013
30seconds can't wait for the next seekingalpha/ Wall st journal drivel about how this gives tesla a MUCH larger carbon footprint than driving a Dodge Charger with the HEMI engine coast to coast. Or, of course, this was only possible to the massive and unique government subsidies given to tesla that is in no way similar to anything available or given to any other US/ foreign car manufacturer.�
May 30, 2013
callmesam Elon says that pack swap is "NOT a brilliant idea"
This is a dead giveaway that what is coming down might be the rechargeable swap Al + water.
It definitely is NOT going to be a regular swap since he wouldn't submarine his own 6/20 Announcement by calling it "not brilliant"�
May 30, 2013
Rodolfo Paiz I disagree with your interpretation. What Elon said was that he didn't consider a pack swap to be a particularly brilliant idea since it's been done for so long and we do it so routinely on other things like laptop computers and phones. He also said he's strongly in favor of optionality. I do not think he's discounting the idea of pack swapping at all; instead, he's simply saying that pack-swapping was already a common idea before they suggested it for the Model S, and so there was no brilliance involved in coming up with it.�
May 30, 2013
ShortSlaver There's just so many other issues associated with swapping the battery. The battery is the most expensive part of the car. What's the liability in just swapping them out? How do you know the battery you're getting is as good? How does Tesla know they're getting a good one back. Who or what monitors this process?
It isn't really practical at this scale.�
May 30, 2013
DonPedro Now you sound like the people who have not believed in everything else Tesla has been doing. "The batteries aren't good enough", "people don't want EV", "EVs are too expensive", etc.
Let Elon surprise you (if swapping it is).�
May 30, 2013
RABaby Swapping the battery as Elon referred to it probably (although one never knows exactly what Elon is thinking) refers to the ease of replacing a battery. It is not intended as an alternative to charging. That doesn't dismiss the possibility of a swappable battery in addition to the primary unit, but the Tesla maintenance people do not share the belief in swapping the existing unit. As with every idea tossed around, there are pros and cons and only Elon can settle the challenges.�
May 30, 2013
ShortSlaver I just think it's a dead end. Battery capacity is only going to improve making swapping even less relevant. It's just a patch and one that isn't needed. I'm more interested in improving the charging network (great progress!), making the charging times faster (more great progress) and making batteries with more and more range (in-progress). Why invest in swapping when it has so many edge cases to figure out, risk and cost?
I love what Tesla is doing and don't see a reason to swap batteries for mainstream vehicles.�
May 30, 2013
TI Sailor +1 ShortSlaver�
May 30, 2013
Benz I actually do agree with you, but I would say it slightly differently:
Battery swapping will not be needed. Maybe only on a smaller scale for business fleets situations. But even that is not very likely, in my opinion. But technically it's very much possible and doable. So, that's not the issue at all. More like, would people want to have this option. And if this option will result in more Tesla EV's getting sold, than it will be made possible. No doubt about that. But I do not see this happening before GEN III is sold in the hundreds of thousands per year. So, it's more like a long term option with not a high priority.�
May 30, 2013
60TTuC Supercharger Announcement - YouTube�
May 30, 2013
bollar Yes!
20 minutes charging every three hours is really close to that tipping point for me. If I'm traveling with the family, we're stopping at least that often anyway.�
May 30, 2013
c041v I hope that fact along with Elon saying that every future Tesla will have supercharging capability enabled indicates things will never get worse this this from here on out. That is a huge catalyst for mass adoption. If Tesla can make money by creating a nation-wide charging network that can have you rolling again in under 30 min, that's the bar any other enterprising individual or company must clear in order to be competitive.
Without sounding too fanatical, things are destined to change in a big way in the next few years. Even if charging times are only reduced incrementally, they've already hit the tipping point where an EV is just as viable as an ICE to the average joe.
Come to think of it, I wouldn't mind seeing a Malcolm Gladwell do a bit on Tesla.�
May 30, 2013
Benz This Supercharger announcement was just awesome.
There is one little tiny miny thing that I would have liked to see changed. And that is about the map with all the Supercharger dots on it. I would have liked if we would have been able to zoom in to get a more precised look at the new Supercharger locations. Does anyone agree with me on this?�
May 30, 2013
bollar Sure, but it's unlikely that the locations beyond this Summer are finalized.�
May 30, 2013
Darko Yeah, a metal-air booster swap in the frunk is the only proposal that seems to make any sense to me - it could be understood as complimentary to supercharging until the next generation of battery technology allows you to recharge in say 5-10 min - maybe another 5-10 years out. If it is simple and cost effective enough it would kill off that last bit of range anxiety/impatience argument that some people still make. Then the naysayers will only be left with the argument that a Tesla is too costly/elitest, but that will be answered with Gen III. Regardless, whatever the "recharge faster than a gas station" announcement comes out June 20, I'd suggest given Musk's penchant for media flair, that he do it upon finishing a cross-county trip with his 5 rugrats and significant other (fits 7!) and shows documentation of the whole trip to demonstrate how easy it is.�
May 30, 2013
Rodolfo Paiz I have no range anxiety, but I'd still love to see that metal-air booster in frunk. Would be fantastic for those very few long-range trips.�
May 30, 2013
moltenfire Hmm, I wondered about why Musk took so much time to talk about his upcoming road trip with the kids. At the time I thought I don't give a damn what he's going to do on his vacation, but if he'll be using his vacation as a documentary showcasing this new tech, that could be a reason why.
On the other hand, I haven't listened to many of his conf calls. Does he talk about his kids often, or is it somewhat out of character for him to mention his family/kids?�
May 30, 2013
Darko The time for a roadtrip would also explain why the announcement has been pushed back to June 20. Regardless, I'd like to think the free supercharger network + a faster-than-gas-station recharge unleashes a renaissance of the great american roadtrip - it's diminished over the last 50 years from the price of gas, collective environmental guilt, and the fact that most cars suck to drive.�
May 30, 2013
kenliles not on quarterly reports of course- but yes on other more casual events he talk about them a lot- even his frustration with I5 traffic getting home before they are asleep; He mixes his personal and professional life with ease.�
May 30, 2013
Benz All I meant was that I would have liked it if there was a zoom in functionality on the map, so that the upcoming location can be seen more precisely.
I know that they are not finalized yet, and only a few more will be finalized in the upcoming months.
The map is just a forecast for what is going to be reallised in the next months/years.
- - - Updated - - -
What about Alaska and Hawai?
- - - Updated - - -
How is Tesla Motors going to announce when which Supercharger location has gone live?�
May 30, 2013
vcor Via the in-car Supercharger map with the 4.5 update.�
May 30, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Personally, I don't get why folks don't get what a huge business opportunity battery swapping is for Tesla. There is a reason they are saving it for last, and it isn't because its the least important.
First, lets examine the statements you make -
Don't you realize that these "advances" are fundamentally in conflict with one another? Any time you increase battery size you increase charging time as well, for any given power output. Therefor, if you double the pack size, its going to double the charging requirements, either in terms of physical infrastructure or time spent to charge. So a pack that is twice the size will take twice as long to charge using existing chargers. If you double charging capacity you will be able charge in the same amount of time. To double pack capacity and also cut charging time in half at the same time, you need to be able to flow four times as much power.
Sure, you can build a nice system that still might be able to charge a 500 mile battery in an hour. And that's really not that bad of a system to have. I already don't mind charging for an hour every 200 miles. But this innovation path you are so enthused about requires building edge cases into every car. There really isn't much practical need for 500 mile batteries. 99% of the time the battery capacity will just be dead weight which lowers the efficiency and performance of the car. Scaling up to 1,000 mile batteries makes "fast" charging impossible. And it just makes the efficiency problems worse.
So what then are the problems you cite with swapping?
What's the cost? The robotic infrastructure is cheap. The main variable is the cost of the battery inventory.
The battery inventory is a business opportunity. The larger the inventory, the larger the opportunity.
Elon wants renewable sources of energy to win in the marketplace. The biggest problem with that isn't costs, which are going down rapidly, and are already competitive, or near competitive. The biggest problem is the lack of baseload power that utilities can use to prop up the grid while variable sources are busy being variable. Germany is already running into big problems with this. The U.S. as well, though because we use fewer renewables its not impacting us as badly yet.
Either they will need to keep massive numbers of gas electric turbines on hair triggers, or else they need vast amounts of grid storage. The "backup" gas turbines cost nearly as much to have around as just running them full time does. So the only real solution is grid storage on a vast scale.
Tesla has the opportunity to enter this business purely as a byproduct of their core car business. Battery swapping is the lever they will use to build up a national energy storage capacity that will pay for itself as it scales up to levels that will be economically relevant to the national grid.
The value of this stored power will increase with time as the price of wind and solar reach their respective tipping points where they are more economical than traditional sources. To understand the size of this business opportunity, renewable sources like solar power (Solar City) and a sufficiently large energy storage system could entirely displace all other energy sources. No more power plants, no more coal industry, petro-chemicals will be completely out of the power generation business. Nuclear is probably not competitive, and fusion still doesn't exist.
This is the economy that Elon wants to build, and grid storage is the key. The battery swap system is going to pay for itself with swap fees that have the potential to be incredibly lucrative for Tesla. And as it scales up and provides large scale grid buffering, and eventually wide scale grid balancing, it will open up vast new income streams from a portion of the economy that dwarfs the automotive market.
Beyond the pure energy economics, battery swapping also caps the size of the necessary battery. There is zero need for batteries that are larger than what the Model S already has if you have battery swapping. Therefor, future advances in battery storage translate directly into cheaper, faster and more efficient automobiles, instead of being plowed into larger pack sizes that are rarely used. It eliminates the need to imagine impossible MWh charging stations, or the need to invest in speculative R&D on the subject.
So, to sum up, the system that so many people here seem to be against is one that results in faster, more efficient and less expensive cars, while also directing vast income streams that are currently captured by fossil fuel industries and traditional power utilities (while simultaneously solving global warming eliminating toxic automotive and energy generation emissions), into the coffers of Tesla Motors, Solar City, and like minded renewable energy firms.
And as Tesla fans and investors we think this is unworkable because what? It might ding a few cars? Cost a few hundred million to roll out an initial, bootstrappable capability? I just don't get it.�
May 30, 2013
brianman On my overlay it looks more like Salem than Woodburn. But regarding the second dot, my guess is Stayton/Sublimity/Kingston.
- - - Updated - - -
Either you're misunderstanding him or I am. My read of what he was trying to say is that swapping is not a "nirvana" / "brilliant" / "surprising" idea that's new to the planet. He wasn't meaning to say "it's a dumb idea", but rather that it's not new / novel.�
May 30, 2013
Doug_G Right, he was saying that pack swapping wasn't a terribly original idea, not that it was a bad idea. Then he said he wasn't sure it was economically viable as a business. Then he said he was all for optionality. I get the distinct impression that he's on the fence about it.�
May 30, 2013
elecblue Boy do I love the last line of the video with Elon - 'You can pack some food, stay with friends, and leave your wallet at home.' It just dawned on me that in a year's time you can literally travel across the US and southern Canada WITHOUT SPENDING A DIME! Not one red cent. This concept is so foreign to our psyche that it is almost beyond comprehension. By purchasing a Model S, we've essentially pre-paid for all the costs of traveling via car. I need to give this more thought - my wife and I spend a fortune on airfare and travel in general. We don't need to do that any longer! The $ we save for travel expense more than makes up for the car payment. Hmm....I think we'll take another road trip this weekend! (we went to SW Michigan last weekend and charged / stayed with friends for free).
Gosh this gets better all the time!�
May 30, 2013
kenliles makes you think about getting an X, a little inside remodel and live on the road... for nothin- well gotta stop for the coffee�
May 30, 2013
deonb I totally agree with you on Grid storage, but for Grid storage you can have larger and cheaper batteries with a single shared cooling and management system. You don't need to stack up 20 individually managed car batteries.
Both Elon and Javier said they have a 5 min recharge solution. If you have a 5 min recharge time, what would be the virtue that Li-Ion Battery swapping brings to the table?
Are there maybe some set of people out there that are going: "I don't want to plug in a car for 5 mins. I want to instead have a 5 min car-wash drive-through like experience at those same locations in order to refill. The difference between those are SO important to me that I'm not going to purchase the car as a result."
I would buy an Al-air model because that one does have an additional virtue: It's easy to distribute - you can sell/rent those from any gas station shop - places where you'd NEVER have SuperChargers. But you're not going to find Li-Ion battery swappers in more places than SuperChargers.�
May 31, 2013
stopcrazypp Isn't battery swapping that "faster than filling gasoline" solution mentioned by Elon and Javier? I guess we'll see real soon.
5 minute recharge from empty to full will require a 12C average charge rate (actual peak charge rate higher because of tapering). That's not something Tesla's batteries can currently handle and even the fastest charging battery chemistries (like the titanate based ones) take 10 minutes.
It also would require a 1MW connection. ~250kW is basically the limit for a cable based connection. More than that will likely require a connection under the car (kind of like the charging bars used by electric buses with 500kW chargers).�
May 31, 2013
CapitalistOppressor There isn't anything particularly cheaper about stacking vs non-stacking. Both systems will use the same NCR18650 cells that the Model S uses, because they are the cheapest and highest quality option available. Stacking battery packs is only slightly more complicated than building a dedicated housing.
Except this is not physically possible. It would destroy the battery, require MW class connectors that don't exist, and MW class cables that can't be manipulated by hand. Even the 60kWh car will take over 30 minutes to recharge with 120kWh. Doubling that to 240kWh is pushing the boundaries in a major way, though it might be possible.
That gives you recharge times of well over 15 minutes, because your tapering requirements are likely more severe. Doubling it again to 480kWh is exceedingly unlikely to be able to be accomplished, and still leaves you with 8+ minute charge times on a 60kWh car. The 85kWh car takes much more time than that, and you need MWh charge capacities to drive it down further, which is emphatically not going to happen. The Model S literally does not have connector ports able to handle any of these options.
Any thought that something like this is going to be announced June 20th is absurd.
We knew the specs for the SuperChargers enough to know ahead of time that the announcement was likely to include an increase to 120kWh. That happened. The SuperCharger announcement is finished. There is not going to be a SuperCharger v2.0 announcement.
There is going to be a battery swap announcement, because if there is not a battery swap announcement Tesla is potentially liable for misleading its shareholders after telling them that there WOULD be a battery swap announcement involving "specialized" facilities in the "near future". We further know this because of how Elon answered the question about battery swap in the announcement. Battery swapping is fully compatible with a tweet about fast "recharging" as long as you put quotes around it.
I don't even know how to respond to Aluminum Air proposals. From an engineering standpoint they seem inelegant in the extreme. From the standpoint of being a well informed Tesla watcher, I have never once seen them discuss this possibility. I also fail to see the business case for it, or any reason why it could possibly be superior to the conventional battery swapping systems that Tesla has been discussing for years.
You can't use them for grid storage, which is a fundamental requirement for renewable sources like Solar. You can't even do small scale buffering. The logistics of it are terrible, and I don't see any obvious way that Tesla can make money from it.
In contrast, industrial scale grid storage has the potential to put the Exxon Mobil's of the world out of business, while transferring much of their income to Tesla. It would literally make the world a better place. Battery swapping has the direct ability to bootstrap a massive grid storage solution into existence without the chicken/egg problem being a factor. With an economical battery swapping business, Tesla is going to be able to undercut any competition that attempts to develop competing systems that are based solely on the economics of renewable energy.�
May 31, 2013
Johan @CO: Eloquently spoken and to the point as always. Sums up the arguments well and I agree on all points. Like Citizen-T said in his thread: "Swapping IS coming". It's in the SEC filing. I suppose they have actually legally comitted to introducing it by putting the statement in the filing.�
May 31, 2013
deonb I agree with you on all the technical aspects. I do not know of any existing way that it can be made to work.
But you can maybe interpret Elon's tweet as metaphorical to imply battery swapping. However, I don't see a way that you can interpret Javier's statement as anything but literal:
"Charging technology is only going to improve with time. Charging times will decrease significantly and range will increase accordingly. In the very near future, the argument that internal combustion automobiles are more convenient than electric vehicles will be a moot point. You will be able to arrive at a charging station with an empty battery and drive off with a full charge faster than you can fill up a gas tank."
There is no ambiguity there.�
May 31, 2013
Johan Why does the first 2 (or 3) sentences have to be directly interconnected with the fourth sentence? I.e. in the first 2 sentences he talks about the fact that charging will improve. In the third sentence he sets up the fourth sentence, in which he merely says that "you can arrive at a charging station and drive off with a full charge faster than you can fill up a gas tank". If we assume that swapping stations will be co-localized with supercharging stations then I don't see how this statement rules out swapping???�
May 31, 2013
deonb Because of what CapitalOppressor and countless others have rightfully said. This is not physically possible (with any known technology). "It would destroy the battery, require MW class connectors that don't exist, and MW class cables that can't be manipulated by hand.".
The problem is however - it's not on a trajectory that anybody is foreseeing that it would ever be physically possible. i.e. This isn't like battery life that will increase by 8% per year, so that you can plan a car 5 years out with 50% cheaper batteries. There is no such related improvement for charge time. You will never be able to lift a MW cable. You can't charge a battery at room temperature at 15 C. As far as we know, this isn't possible today, and it won't be possible 15 years from now either.
So when Javier is saying "Charging times will decrease significantly"... what the hell is he talking about? The only way that you can foresee charge time decreasing significantly in the very near future, is if you already know how to do it today.
I think they've had a scientific discovery - this isn't just an engineering feat (well, I guess it can be something like a Liquid Nitrogen flush to make the internal battery wiring superconductive during charging... but I doubt that).
And the announcement is a demo - however, it doesn't necessarily mean that it is available immediately or even applicable to existing batteries. This could just be Elon's way of publishing research (fiercely patented of course).�
May 31, 2013
DavidM Battery swap would only make sense if a Model S purchase included a leased battery. The problem with battery swap is it's labor intensive. That is cost inefficient. Supercharging stations are unmanned and have a low operating cost.�
May 31, 2013
deonb Because you don't need robotics to swop them. They can be swapped by end users anywhere in the U.S. e.g. at any of 120'000 existing gas stations that are willing to stock and sell some Al-Air plates (and supply water). It's a stand-alone business model that absolutely makes sense to have in addition to SuperChargers. It's less convenient and more expensive than SuperChargers, but more widely available. That makes it a good justification to have both. I haven't seen a good business justification for having both Li-ion battery swopping and SuperChargers - especially since they would be at the same location. If Tesla only offered battery swopping, and not SuperChargers, will they even lose 1 sale as a result?
Lastly, Al-air swapping would also satisfy the SEC filing around swapping.
The other problem with Li-ion battery swapping is the SuperCharger placement. SuperChargers are placed in other people's parking lots. To the parking lot owner this is a great deal - you get some of your parking stalls upgraded to draw in a bunch of rich folks from out of town who will be hanging around bored for 30 mins and probably going to wander into your business as a result. You lose some parking bays for general use, but ultimately you create a huge drawing point for your businesses.
A battery swapper does the exist opposite. Now you have to give up some parking bays for Tesla to install something the size of a car-wash, for people who are so rushed for time (need a 5 min battery swop over a 20 min charge), that they specifically WON'T go into your business. That's a much tougher sell.
Not only that, but there are now 24 SuperChargers installed or being installed. And at each of these locations you would have already had to plan for installing the battery swapper. So those owners will know about it. Have you ever tried to keep a secret amongst 24 people? Nevermind 24 distinct 3rd party groups? It can't be done. (e.g. The Burlington, WA SC location was discovered by just walking up to some local people and chatting to them.)�
May 31, 2013
electrictorque There is no need for a MW cable... how about contacts under the car? park the car over the charging station and a MW connector would raise from under the car and auto connect...�
May 31, 2013
deonb You mean like maybe under the nose of the car? Doubtful. If that was possible I'm sure Elon would have tweeted about it by now...�
May 31, 2013
DEinspanjer I guess I have range anxiety. I am excited and happy about the supercharger announcement, but I am also a bit disappointed about the time frame and strategy. It feels to me like it would have been a lot more productive to roll them out using bisectioning rather than the very clustered and clumped method shown.
If there was even just one SC in eastern TN or West Virginia, it would be enough to let me consider making the road trip to Memphis without it being a several day adventure. As it is, I am looking at two years before I could reasonably make that trip.
If they put in the SCs that are kinda out in the middle of nowhere, they enable the really tough trips, then start filling in the routes to connect them. Maybe it isn't as good of a strategy though. ::shrug::
Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 4 Beta�
May 31, 2013
JRP3 You also decrease the need for charging, i.e. you only need to charge half as often with a 500 mile battery as with a 250 mile battery. There are few people who even take such a trip and even fewer who would not stop for an extended time after 400-500 miles of driving.
For those of you who keep insisting that faster charge rates simply aren't possible with any battery technology you need to become aware of the fact that sub 10 minute charge times have already been demonstrated by Aeronvironment and Altairnano. Toshiba Scib and A123 should also be capable of similar times. Finally, don't fixate on the "5 min" charge time as being the mark, It's quite possible that they consider an average gas station stop to be around 10 minutes or so.
Tesla may indeed go with swapping but it's not a forgone conclusion at this point.�
May 31, 2013
kenliles
Unless you're swapping a pre charged Super Capacitor. And later the ability to charge it in place without a cable at certain locations�
May 31, 2013
deonb 85kWh Super Capacitor would be bigger than the car with current (known) technology. Now again, if this is something new they discovered...�
May 31, 2013
kenliles That's a good point, and I agree it would have to be accompanied by a new density level discovery�
May 31, 2013
CapitalistOppressor I've seen Javier's quote a few times in this thread, but I have no clue what the context is. Who is Javier, and can someone link me his quote? lol.
As to major scientific discoveries, I'd bet against it, but I can't exclude it. One possibility that I've been helping to speculate on in other threads is to disconnect the battery (as you would in a swap), hook it up the coolant lines to a supercooled coolant source and then blast a bunch of energy into it.
Assuming that supercooling the cells could keep charging temperatures down and allow for faster charging times (a technical question I am incapable of answering), this would be a workable process, and its possible that the pack itself might have a heavy duty connector capable of higher charge rates. I don't see any process problems with implementing this. However, the economic expense if the electrical infrastructure at each SuperCharger is likely to be very high.
Again, expert commentary on the cost of electrical infrastructure, and possible grid improvements to support multiple charging bays, each with mid-hundreds of kWh charging capacity would be needed. And any plan needs to scale up to meet demand from millions of Tesla vehicles in the next decade. Swapping has the same power requirements, but it smooths the power requirements out because you are storing the energy for when its needed, and can charge slowly during down times.
The power grid might not be capable of flowing enough power to support MegaCharging for a Memorial Day weekend travel day. I doubt that Tesla thinks that melting powerlines is a good idea. If you need to either co-locate large power plants with the SuperChargers, or else have huge batteries to store the energy (which is essentially the system Elon described yesterday) then why not make modular batteries and just rapidly swap them into cars?
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If you think battery swapping is labor intensive, you are using the wrong model. Battery swapping will be entirely automated, and cost efficient.
Battery swapping might make sense with battery leases, but I don't think folks in the U.S. would want to be stuck with the problem that Better Place customers are experiencing with the potential seizure of their batteries (thus rendering their car useless) because of the failure of Better Place. Regardless, Elon has specifically described how this would work. Users would swap their battery, and it would be stored (and likely be used for ongoing rate arbitrage) until they return.
Leasing substantially simplifies the swapping logistics, and reduces the need for battery inventories. But as I have stated before, large inventories are a feature of this system, not a bug. There likely will not be leasing, though I can't exclude it, because it really does simplify life.
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I don't want to engage on the Aluminum Air concept except to point out that not using robotics means you dramatically increase costs and the chance of damaging the car or battery.
As to the rest, the portion I quoted is a very good point. I've wondered about the general unsuitability of rest stops for the kind of battery swapping stations that I have been envisioning. If I had tried to make a "prediction" based on my hypothesis prior to Elon's announcement, I would have predicted that my model was explaining why the SuperCharger rollout had seemingly stopped (or slowed) with no new stations in awhile. The reason being that Tesla had made the decision to go with swapping, which would mean moving out of rest stops, and they didn't want to keep investing in new locations which would be unsuitable.
Now there are reports of SuperChargers going up on top of parking structures. The idea that you can build a swap station at a location like that is ridiculous. The further re-emphasis by Elon on the rest stop strategy, and the credible explanation for why it was going slowly before (people thought Tesla was a joke) is a real problem for what I was expecting them to do. The basic battery storage requirements he discussed in yesterday's announcement only requires a shed. A SuperSwapper requires a facility much like a gas station, and preferably one with room to expand.
This disconnect is the biggest reason that I see to doubt that Tesla is attempting to do anything but very superficial swapping, like a plan they spoke of a few times to just swap small batteries (40kWh) for big ones at service centers so folks could take a road trip using SuperChargers.
The problem with that include the fact that it doesn't fit Elon's tweet (about fast "recharges"), and the 40kWh battery has been canceled. There is a marginal difference between the ability of the 60kWh and 85kWh cars being able to take roadtrips, and Tesla is trying to incentivize 60kWh customers to pay for the SuperCharging upgrade.
So a superficial swapping system to rent larger batteries doesn't fit. Maybe Tesla could offer a swap battery containing 3400mAh cells instead of the standard 3100mAh cells, but that would only add an extra 15-20 miles of range at best, and would slow down how long it takes to get a full charge even more.
So yes, I'll admit that the continued push for rest stop locations seems like a major problem. To be clear, in my discussions here I am defending the meta-concept of swapping, its economics and how it should be desirable to Tesla, and the problems with SuperCharging that reinforce the point. But only Tesla knows what their actual plan is, so the mystery announcement is still a mystery as far as I can tell. Some kind of swapping is going to happen. The specifics are unknown though.
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Its true that you only need to stop after 500 miles instead of after 250, but the charging time is the same regardless. If it takes an hour to give you 250 miles of range, you will need to stop once with a large battery and twice with a small one, but the charging time of 2 hours for 500 miles is the same. The real advantage is that your destination is more likely to be in range with a large battery meaning you don't have to stop at all.
Another big issue, is that if a 500 mile battery costs $20,000, a 250 mile battery is going to cost $10,000. Similarly, if a 500 mile battery weighs 800lbs (just counting the cells, ignore the enclosure), then a 250 mile battery is going to weigh 400lbs (the weight calculation is complicated by the fact that half as many cells might not be able to output sufficient power, regardless of their storage capacity). The point being there are real costs, both economic and physical, with installing a larger battery, regardless of the future tech chemistry you choose.�
May 31, 2013
jeff_adams I'm struggling with the semantics. They have consistently used the term "recharge". I just don't don't make the connection that recharge = swapping.
I feel like we're in the Christopher Nolan movie "The Prestige" (which had Tesla in it).
Elon is going to revel a mystery on June 20th. He's dropped lots of hints, but keeps it coy. He's going to show a "recharge" trick. It's right under our noses. It's a simple solution used in an unconventional way. It's a hell of a magic trick....�
May 31, 2013
Jonathan Hewitt I like where you're going with this.�
May 31, 2013
deonb Javier Verdura is the director of Product Design & Project Management at Tesla.
Here is the original source:
http://www.core77.com/blog/announcements/dmi_conference_2013_preview_qa_with_javier_verdura_of_tesla_motors_24947.asp
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Ooo. Ooo... I remember that one.
I don't remember the source though. Could you perhaps site the source so I can add it to my aggregate list of clues on:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17416-June-20th-Speculation/page4?p=353044#post353044�
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