Jan 16, 2014
Larken I had a little idea today about making a guessing competition for total delivered cars for 2014. Everyone is allowed to cast their vote up and until 1 week after the 2013 Q4 ER and then we close this thread or compile a list of everyones guess. That means everyone can listen to Elon in a few weeks and is able to calculate,extrapolate and guess based on the guidance he gives for 2014. Next year, at the Q4 ER we will see who was closest. Maybe we can even have a little price, besides the great honor, like a TMC t-shirt or whatever :smile:
My guess: 44,500
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alright ladies and gentlemen, here is a compilation of everyones vote. We'll get the answer in the Q1 ER next February. Good luck everyone!
I will start with the lowest guess.
gg-got-a-tesla: 31,000
bonaire: 31,669
Discoducky: 33,333
Robert.Boston: 33,675
JJR64: 34,500
GSP: 36,000
clmason: 36,600
Zaxxon: 36,721
StapleGun: 37,850
mrdoubleb: 38,000
farzyness: 38,500
chickensevil: 38,700
SteveG3: 38,800
PeterW: 39,150
Clprenz: 40,000
rrosenbl: 40,000
gym7rjm: 40,123
Warrenbonz: 40,123
RationalOptimist: 40,309
MikeC: 40,500
DaveT: 41,234
SebastianR: 42,000
kenliles: 42,300
Krugerrand: 42,350
StephenM: 42,500
Cattledog: 42,612
Techmaven: 42,772
Benz: 44,400
Larken: 44,500
TD1: 45,000
TSLAopt: 45,600
jdevo2004: 45,601
vgrinshpun: 46,250
austinEV: 47,000
Jackl1956: 47,000
sleepyhead: 48,300
772: 50,772
Rownolds: 50,773�
Jan 16, 2014
DaveT 41,234�
Jan 16, 2014
StapleGun 37,850�
Jan 16, 2014
TSLAopt 45,600�
Jan 16, 2014
techmaven 36,720
--edit--
After ER, I'm revising my guess to:
42772�
Jan 16, 2014
gg_got_a_tesla 31,000�
Jan 16, 2014
GSP 36,000�
Jan 16, 2014
jdevo2004 Price is Right rules?
45,601�
Jan 16, 2014
Discoducky 33,333�
Jan 16, 2014
StephenM 42,500�
Jan 16, 2014
Krugerrand 42,350�
Jan 16, 2014
MikeC No one waiting for Q4 ER?
Ok, I'll go with 40,500. Exit Q4 with a run rate of ~1000/week.�
Jan 17, 2014
Larken I'm definately going to waitBut people can change/edit their guesses up and until a week after the ER I suppose.
�
Jan 17, 2014
772 Hard for me to guess what production rates will look like after ramp up in H2, but I'll just go with 50,772 (avg a bit less than 1K/week)�
Jan 17, 2014
vgrinshpun 46,250�
Jan 17, 2014
RationalOptimist You're all fairly close. But the correct number is 40,309.�
Jan 17, 2014
AudubonB Before I tell you all what the correct number is going to be, can I insert the restriction that this number is for Model Ss only?
Just in case a certain X factor inserts itself......
Or should we be more inclusive?�
Jan 18, 2014
mrdoubleb So Workingdays.us says there will be 251 work days in California this year. We do not know what the exact output is right now, but they are ramping towards 800/week by the end of the year.
So the conservative estimate would be 700 per week / 5 days = 140 per day * 251 = 35k. But they like to over deliver so I would say 38,000 deliveries this year (plus 20-50 Model Xs just for the bragging rights).�
Jan 18, 2014
Cattledog I am going to guess they average 700/week Q1, 800/week Q2 (and announce that at Q3 earnings call), 900/week Q3, 1,000/week Q4. Throw a dozen Model Xs into Q4. Take a week off Q1 and Q3, you get 8,400 + 10,400 + 10,800 + 13,000 + 12 = 42,612.
And they'll come out with a Lithium Margarita that will be the rage drink this summer.�
Jan 18, 2014
Rownolds With apologies to 772 (I want to WIN), my guess is 50,773
{And don't no one squeeze me with a guess of 50,774!}�
Jan 19, 2014
TSLAopt haha
- - - Updated - - -
We're all big dreamers here setting high hopes...if any of us really EXPECT over 40k in reality then I think we could really get dissappointed on that number. I just am hoping media and analysts aren't monitoring this board thinking we're "experts" and going with our estimates like they did with the infamous "VIN analysis" thread on the Tesla Motors forum.
We need TFTF and Bonaire and the likes to throw in their 25k estimates to balance this out, otherwise I think this thread could become counterproductive to expectations and the stock price potentially (ie. if media and analysts are taking our guesses as expert analysis somehow)�
Jan 19, 2014
Robert.Boston 33,675 (although I reserve the right to change after the earnings call!)
This is 50 weeks of production, starting at 600/week ramping up to 750/week at year's end. The two weeks off are for holidays and factory maintenance.�
Jan 19, 2014
Larken I understand your concern and it crossed my mind too. That's why, as I wrote in the beginning, said that we'll close this thread 1 week after the ER so there won't be more speculation. And anyway, I'm sure there's gonna be many more threads and discussion about delivers as the year progesses and that the estimations we're doing now for fun will be of no interest to the media.�
Jan 19, 2014
sleepyhead 48,300�
Jan 19, 2014
Zaxxon 36,721 s, 12 x.�
Jan 20, 2014
techmaven I see what you did there.�
Jan 20, 2014
772 You don't need to apologize... I have the correct number :wink:�
Jan 20, 2014
Zaxxon Bob Barker made me.�
Jan 20, 2014
Krugerrand For you PiR fans...remember, it's highest bid without going over the actual number. So, one of you is going to have to bid 1 car.�
Jan 20, 2014
mrdoubleb Hmm... That's interesting. Maybe I was a bit too rationall with my 38k prediction.
Why do you think it will be 48k Sleepy? Elon said they want to ramp to 800 cars per week by the end of the year. That's 160 per day. Even if they were at that output for the whole year, that's 40k for 2014.
Do you think they have lowballed that number to that extent? 48k means an almost 1k average per week for the entire year, whie the q4 number tells us they closed out 2013 with just a little over 600.�
Jan 20, 2014
woof Interesting to see guesses that aren't rounded to the nearest thousand. No way Tesla is going to report the exact number, if they announce anything at all it'll be something like "Over X thousand" each quarter, and they won't total it for you in the end. So the "official" number will be the sum of 4 rounded down numbers.�
Jan 20, 2014
bonaire 31,634 MS
35 MX
My biggest beef is with analysts calling for "doubling" in 2014 over 2013. That will mess up valuation until you get at least two more quarters in. If Q1 is under 7500, then it makes the next three quarters harder to attain this "double". The mis-quote of 800/wk for an assumed "all-year" production cycle is out on the street now. It was Musk who said "by end of 2014".
This thread is quite good since many analysts could read it and make estimates based on "Tesla experts".
RW Baird said 30,000-33,000 but also gave an upgrade. That is a good call.�
Jan 20, 2014
clmason My entry: 36,600�
Jan 22, 2014
Benz Tesla Model S: 44,000 and Tesla Model X: 400.
Total delivered cars in 2014: 44,400.
I might want to change these figures within a week after the announcement of the Q4 2013 Earnings Report and Conference Call (somewhere in February 2014).�
Jan 22, 2014
JJR64 34,500�
Jan 22, 2014
farzyness 38,500�
Jan 22, 2014
Benz For 2015 my prediction for the combined total deliveries of Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X would be: 80,000+.
For 2016 my prediction for the combined total deliveries of Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X would be: 120,000+.
For 2017 my prediction for the combined total deliveries of Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X would be: 160,000+ (and the Tesla Model E is not even included in this total).�
Jan 22, 2014
Clprenz Expect: 38k
Actual: 40k
Hope: 42k�
Jan 23, 2014
Discoducky Due to the low price of Model S in China I'm thinking TM will shoot for 1000/week by Q4 and deliver 40000 cars.
I still can't believe how low TM has priced the S in China. I'm currently in the 'denial' phase and think the price will go up once TM realizes costs in delivery are higher than anticipated. But hope it won't since it is so cool!�
Jan 24, 2014
TD1 Elon likes to lowball with good numbers: like suggesting they will make around 35k in 2014.
He knows exactly that each Qx report in the 2014 that slightly beats the expectations is rewarded over proportionally in the stock price.
My guess is 45k, I expect Elon to announce that "Demand is much higher than expected" which leads to more positive news (Elon is a marketing genius)
And its really much easier than people think, Fremont is running on only two shifts right now. So adding a third shift for a few quarters will give make it possible to achieve that kind of production rate.�
Jan 24, 2014
Jackl1956 47,000�
Jan 24, 2014
Ubbe Didn't Elon mention in some interview that because there are so many containers returning from U.S.A. empty to China freight costs are pretty low ? (that is by the way a very concrete way of looking at the trade deficit).
That may of course change, an while the cost may be lower than usual, it won't be for free of course.
If they start a battery pack factory in China they might avoid some of those freight costs too (Japan-USA-China).�
Jan 25, 2014
Warrenbonz My prediction is that Tesla will guide for 35K deliveries in 2014 and deliver just over 40K say 40,123.�
Jan 25, 2014
chickensevil The problem there is we end up with another situation like Q3 2013. If everyone always expects them to under promise and over perform then eventually they will come in even (or dare I say under) and it is going to KILL the stock. Nothing wrong with being a little conservative, but he shouldn't be too conservative.
They were also long term expecting demand to be 60k (20k us, 20k Europe, 20k Asia). This year? With them suggesting 1/3 to be China, and we had a solid 20k US, I could see them doing 40k, but will be conservative and happy with 38k.�
Jan 25, 2014
Ocelot Went to a Tesla talk last night put on through a technology club in Victoria (which is how I found out about it, not through Tesla)
Anyhow they had representatives from Tesla there (too bad no one mentioned AT ALL at the talk there were test drive events today and tomorrow which would have been nice, and also too bad they had not reached out to reservation holders to inform them of the talk or test drive ) and the gentleman, Lance (cannot remember last name but said he has been with Tesla for five years) , said the production rate currently is 600 cars/week and gave guidance of 25 000 for this year when questioned after the official talk. Seems low, but those were his words.�
Jan 25, 2014
SebastianR My 'scientific' prediction is that Tesla will guide for 38K deliveries in 2014 and deliver just over 42K.�
Jan 25, 2014
chickensevil Well 25,000 is the safe spot... because they basically did that number last year. Even if they stick to 600 a week you are looking at a MINIMUM of 30k cars this year. This number will not remain the same for long so I would expect it to rise the question is by how much???
700 a week would be over 35k
800 a week would be over 40k
If they hit the 800 a week, this would make them reach their already stated goal of 800, plus the scale to hit 40k which is where they will be happy with for the moment IIRC. So suggesting an average of at least 700 a week.
600 a week for Q1 - 7800
700 a week for Q2 - 9100
800 a week for the rest of the year - 20800.
Total 37700 which would be an average of 725 a week for the year.
Unless something amazing happens, I wouldn't expect much more than this.
- - - Updated - - -
I am willing to make 37700 my number tentatively. I might change my mind after the meeting in Feb.�
Jan 29, 2014
keithz What's the max they can achieve with two shifts? That's the question. They'll only add a third shift if there's a business case for it. Right now there at 8.75 cars per hour with 700 cars per week and two shifts. A 14% increase gets them to 800 per week.
I don't see them hitting 40K unless they can do it in 2 shifts. Save the third shift for a step jump in production from say 800 to 1200 per week. Eventually, if they hit 10 per hour and run four 36 hour shifts per week, they'll hit 1440 cars or 72000 per year.
So the other question is how much are they constrained by suppliers?�
Jan 31, 2014
Chickenlittle Makes sense at that production rate the can all take off for a 12 week vacation or if they go as high as the 1200 a week musk mentioned in Germany they can all take a 6 month vacation�
Jan 31, 2014
austinEV This run rate talk ignores something, I think.
TM will produce a number of cars which is the least of:
1) The cars that were ordered (demand limited)
2) The amount of cars they have batteries for (Panasonic production limited)
3) The amount of cars (minus batteries) they can make (Fremont limited)
We believe that #1 has never been a problem. (it will be someday maybe, it is always out there lurking. We assume they can increase demand with a bit of advertising if needed). Since they have claimed that they are battery constrained, at least in Q3, we may really not know what there car run rate is. I have to think that maybe the small amount of Q4 upside was batteries coming in and consuming either idle car capacity or actual idle cars built and waiting. For all we know the car building is outpacing Panasonic's output. I suspect it isn't a lot, since they wouldn't have a big reason to get too far in front, and battery-less car inventory would show up on financial docs somewhere. This suggests that if the Panasonic supply is lumpy and coming in faster we may find that the car capacity is already 800/wk when we get a surprise upside some quarter. I guess I am saying I see a scenario where we get a non-linear step up in production if the constraint swaps from batteries to cars.�
Jan 31, 2014
chickensevil While they might be able to easily ramp up production of more cars, I wouldn't think they were overbuilding them. Because to get them that far along in the building process that all they need is a battery, you have added so much to the car (specifically the paint job and at least the interior) that you at the very least have 1 order for each car waiting for a battery. Which leads me to think that they are making them at the rate that they are getting in the supply of batteries.
Keep in mind that the frame/body gets painted rather early on in the production cycle. The seats are also put in rather early. plus you have the pano roof vs no pano roof. I would think that you would have too much of an overstock of cars with various options waiting which would be impossible to hide from the balance sheets.
More likely panasonic send them a shipment once a month of X number of batteries, They then build as many cars as they get in batteries (with a few spares to go out to other sources, like the service centers and such). They then chalk out that for that month they can make X number of cars, and target a production run for that month that coincides with the total number of cars they could make. Then about 1 week out from the end of the month, Panasonic would likely tell them how many they are expecting to be able to ship to Tesla, so they can start prepping for the next months run when the batteries arrive.
What I am guessing is, when Panasonic sent in those last few shipments of batteries for Nov and Dec, they were able to chunk out more than expected so Tesla ramped up to match.
This is all just fancy guesswork but from a production standpoint makes the most sense. Then you are only ever using up people's time and the other supplies as you need them so you don't end up with any waste (both in time and supplies).
- - - Updated - - -
All that being said, I would assume that they could ramp up to full capacity for each line based on specific limitations that the production line can handle. What I am guessing, as I have heard others guess as well, is that across 2 shifts on the one single production line, they can do 800 cars a week (or 400 per shift). This is likely why they are targeting 800, since that puts them cleanly into the 40k a year run rate, which Elon has said in the past that they could do with little CapEx on a 2 shift run of the one line. Anything beyond that, he said they would need a second line. (This is my memory of what was said back I wanna say Q2 2013.)�
Feb 4, 2014
rrosenbl 40,000�
Feb 23, 2014
SteveG3 38,800�
Feb 23, 2014
angstrom The numbers don't matter right now. They haven't since early last year. At this point it's all about driving the cost of the battery packs down. The fastest way to accomplish that is using Solar PV which has the option to use the 30% ITC on the solar storage.
Tesla may crank out 40K cars this year, but that will be dwarfed by the stationary storage units. The story at Tesla since 2012 has been that they are supply constrained, not demand constrained. I expect we'll find out that the storage project has been growing in tandem with the Model S and now the former is about to eclipse the latter in production needs.
At the same time SolarCity will announce Q4 GAAP profit with projected continuous profits going forward. This will drive up the value of both companies. SolarCity will acknowledge income from the solar storage pilot projects and savings from acquiring ZEP along with Paramount Solar's backlog of customers and existing customers.
SolarCity fronts the capital to purchase stationary storage packs from Tesla matching SolarCity's growth. TSLA and SCTY both jump more than 50% followed by additional stock offerings which will be used to cover the cost of the Gigga Factory.
This symbiotic relationship drives the cost of the packs down 10 years faster than just building cars would. ITC goes away right around the time Tesla would be pushing the Gen 3 through volume ramp.�
Feb 24, 2014
Larken Alright folks, for those who want, let's cast our final votes for total delivered cars by TM (including Model X) for the full year of 2014. If you have already voted then just edit your first post. Last chance to vote will be right before the markets close on Wednesday. I will then post a summarization of everyones vote in the first post in this thread. Good luck to all.�
Feb 24, 2014
austinEV 47,000�
Feb 24, 2014
kenliles 42300�
Feb 25, 2014
gym7rjm 40,123�
Feb 25, 2014
PeterW 39,150�
Feb 25, 2014
gym7rjm Can we get a wiki post at the front of the thred with everyone's guess?? I'm willing to go through and compile everything.�
Feb 25, 2014
Larken What's a wiki post? I was going to summarize everything in some kind of spreadsheet at the front of the thread, wasn't sure how though, but it seems like you know how to do it. If you want to help or have suggestions, by all means you are welcome to�
Mar 3, 2014
chickensevil Because they will have to claim 1000 a week by the end of the year, I will revise my original number up 1000
So lets go with 38,700 for the year. I still think it is going to be a slow-ish ramp up (maybe hitting 800 by middle of the year), and then it will explode at the end of the year.�
Mar 3, 2014
wycolo Don't we have to agree on the 2012 and 2013 numbers ahead of time & also agree on what will be the 'official source' for the 2014 numbers?
2012 = around 2,000 MS produced.
2013 = around 25,000 produced ?
I heard that as of Feb the total to date is more like 35,000 but I'm clueless.
--�
Mar 3, 2014
chickensevil Not following you question. You know how many deliveries they had because Tesla releases that number. The total number produced this year will be the results of each quarter added up.�
Mar 4, 2014
gym7rjm Larken, since you have the first post, can you just edit this table onto that post? Tack!!
gg_got_a_tesla 31,000 bonaire 31,634 Robert.Boston 33,675 JJR64 34,500 wycolo 35,000 GSP 36,000 clmason 36,600 Zaxxon 36,721 StapleGun 37,850 mrdoubleb 38,000 Clprenz 38,000 farzyness 38,500 chickensvil 38,700 SteveG3 38,800 PeterW 39,150 Discoducky 40,000 rrosenbl 40,000 Warrenbonz 40,123 gym7rjm 40,123 RationalOptimist 40,309 MikeC 40,500 Dave T 41,234 SebastianR 42,000 kenliles 42,300 Krugerrand 42,350 StephenM 42,500 Cattledog 42,612 techmaven 42,772 Benz 44,000 Larken 44,500 TD1 45,000 TSLAopt 45,600 jdevo2004 45,601 vgrinshpun 46,250 Jackl1956 47,000 austinEV 47,000 sleepyhead 48,300 772 50,772 Rownolds 50,773
Also, there are a few double guesses. What should the tie breaker be for that?
edit: well there should be a table here, not sure why it's not showing up?�
Mar 4, 2014
Larken oh crap, I completely forgot about this competition and that I promised to summarize everyones vote and post it on the first page. Forgive me.
As for guesses, the last guess is the one that counts. The guessing closed one week after the ER (26th Feb)�
May 5, 2014
Larken I have compiled a list of everyones vote in the first post.�
May 5, 2014
Benz Great to see the list.
I am actually amazed to see that almost half of the predictions are 40,000 or higher.
That's pretty encougaging, as I am one of them.�
Dec 24, 2014
Larken I thought I'd dust off this old thread now that the year is almost finished and it's quite interesting to see how bullish we all were regarding production going into 2014. I'll be the first to admit I was way off and optimistic with my 44.500 cars guess. The average guess was 40.960 cars delivered.
gg-got-a-tesla: 31,000
bonaire: 31,669
Discoducky: 33,333
Robert.Boston: 33,675
JJR64: 34,500
GSP: 36,000
clmason: 36,600
Zaxxon: 36,721
StapleGun: 37,850
mrdoubleb: 38,000
farzyness: 38,500
chickensevil: 38,700
SteveG3: 38,800
PeterW: 39,150
Clprenz: 40,000
rrosenbl: 40,000
gym7rjm: 40,123
Warrenbonz: 40,123
RationalOptimist: 40,309
MikeC: 40,500
[U]DaveT:[/U] [B]41,234
[U]SebastianR:[/U] [B]42,000
[U]kenliles:[/U] [B]42,300
[U]Krugerrand:[/U] [B]42,350
[U]StephenM:[/U] [B]42,500
[U]Cattledog:[/U] [B]42,612
[U]Techmaven:[/U] [B]42,772
[U]Benz:[/U] [B]44,400
[U]Larken:[/U] [B]44,500
[U]TD1:[/U] [B]45,000
[U]TSLAopt:[/U] [B]45,600
[U]jdevo2004:[/U] [B]45,601
[U]vgrinshpun:[/U] [B]46,250
[U]austinEV:[/U] [B]47,000
[U]Jackl1956:[/U] [B]47,000
[U]sleepyhead:[/U] [B]48,300
[U]772:[/U] [B]50,772
[U]Rownolds:[/U] [B]50,773[/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B]�
Dec 24, 2014
schonelucht Thanks for reviving this thread. It shows once again that the future is impossible to predict. Nevertheless I am going to guess the winner will be either bonaire or discoducky and that it is going to be close. Yes, that means I am predicting Tesla will miss guidance by approx 500 cars. Remind me how wrong I was beginning of February!�
Dec 24, 2014
chickensevil Did we agree to playing by Price-is-Right rules? So if you go over you lose? Would make it easier to calculate�
Dec 24, 2014
Lump 36 out of 38 would be eliminated.�
Dec 28, 2014
GardenEye 35,100�
Dec 28, 2014
uselesslogin 34,500�
Dec 28, 2014
Lump LOL, predictions for 2014 should have been made last January not the last week of December.�
Dec 28, 2014
Krugerrand I was clearly overly optimistic, but I blame that on the extra toe. Is there a 2015 prediction thread yet? I think I've improved on my ability to count.�
Dec 28, 2014
uselesslogin Wait and i was thinking production. 32,500 deliveries. Obviously not a valid entry though.�
Dec 28, 2014
Larken Haha good one coming in with guesses a couple of days before year ends
I'll start a new thread for 2015 deliveries seeing people are eager to cast a vote.�
Dec 28, 2014
chickensevil Will be the same rules as last time I assume. Voting will lock in 2 weeks after Q4 ER? Cause we don't even have solid 2015 guidance to be making bets on yet. I'm overly optimistic for 75k still (S and X) but we shall see, probably much closer to 60k...�
Dec 28, 2014
Larken The new thread with rules is up.�
Dec 29, 2014
Robert.Boston Two things:
- Larken's original rules said the winner would be the person with the "closest" guess, not "closest without going over."
- I'll offer this brand-new Tesla Motors Club hat as a prize, unless Larken wants to offer something more fun:
�
Dec 29, 2014
Larken That's right Robert, thanks for pointing that out. Closest guess wins, regardless of "going over" or not. Same goes for next years competition.
Also, thanks for offering that baseball cap, I was thinking of something similar today too.�
Dec 30, 2014
chickensevil Nice hat! Since there is an actual prize involved we should definately stick to the original rules then
- - - Updated - - -
Also, I am totally going to laugh if you end up winning your own hat, Robert!�
Dec 30, 2014
Robert.Boston Hey, it will save me the postage.... ;-)�
Dec 30, 2014
Maknyuzz I made my prediction of 37,500 back in Feb 2014. Here is the original post.
Annual Delivery and revenue predictions for Tesla Motors during the current decade. - Page 2
Include me in the prediction competition, although I am likely wayyy overr..�
Dec 30, 2014
Larken Ok, you're included since you did make a prediction before the deadline in February, even though it wasn't in the right thread. As for the coming year, you have to go to Prediction Competition for 2015 and cast your vote.�
Feb 12, 2015
Larken Alright folks, since the full year 2014 results are concluded with 31,655 deliveries, it's time to declare a winner for our 2014 delivery prediction competition. And an amazing winning guess we had by our very own TMC Oracle!
Member bonaire had the closest guess with 31,669, only short of 14 cars! Incredible, I take my hat off! And speaking of hats, the first price will be a TMC hat which Robert.Boston has kindly donated.
Thanks everyone for participating and if anyone wants to join in for the 2015 prediction competition you can go to this thread Prediction Competition for 2015�
Feb 12, 2015
Benz Congratulations to bonaire, well done.�
Feb 12, 2015
Robert.Boston Ah, but for snow storms and customer's ill-timed vacations, the win might have been mine! (And I could keep my hat....)�
Feb 12, 2015
Benz Well, probably bonaire had already taken those factors into his calculation/expectation, he was expecting that those factors would occur in December 2014. Great foresight (and a bit of luck too).
Good luck to all in 2015.�
Feb 12, 2015
bonaire With spreadsheets blazing and all the vin counting wizardry it took, boy are my arms tired.
I'd like to thank TMC for offering the contest. I want to pay it forward by offering the winning hat to the first person to post a picture with their delivered S85D (maybe breser?). Robert can keep an eye out for that and I think a real Tesla owner should have the TMC hat.
My guess on 1/20/14 was:
31,634 MS
35 MX
So, I kept it under the actual number for MS and really blew it thinking a few signature X would be sold by now.�
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