Jun 26, 2012
AnOutsider Inside Tesla - 06.26.12 | Blog | Tesla Motors
What a tease! 5PM for those on the East Coast�
Jun 26, 2012
Tommy With everything going on from the weekend's event I forgot it's Tuesday! Can't wait to get my fix for the week.�
Jun 26, 2012
Zextraterrestrial The Interviews from after the ride??
and release party?
Please :>
mainly interviews! and :biggrin:
:biggrin:
:biggrin:�
Jun 26, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla Didn't realize GeorgeB was going to keep this up after he wrapped up the 4-part series on the manufacturing process! Cool!�
Jun 26, 2012
Zythryn I would most like to hear about the delivery of #11 and dare I hope, #12?�
Jun 26, 2012
Trnsl8r I would like to hear about delivery #4771. :tongue:�
Jun 26, 2012
Lyon Yeah, me too!
In my conversation with GeorgeB at the event, he said that ramp up was going to be painfully slow for many people. They really want to make sure the that each car that goes to a customer is perfect. In the short run the wait will be painful, in the long run I'm sure that we will all appreciate them rewarding early-adopters with high quality cars.�
Jun 26, 2012
StephRob Consoles?�
Jun 26, 2012
jomo25 Good to hear overall of course, that they want to get it right. But sounds like I might need to change my sig counter out by about a month or so.�
Jun 26, 2012
Arnold Panz How slow can it be? They still want to deliver 5000 cars by year-end. If they're doing 80/day in November/December, that's around 41 days x 80 cars = 3280 cars in those two months (I'm not even including getting the car from the factory to the owner). That would mean they need to produce around 1800 cars in July/August/Sept/Oct, which averages to 450 cars/month, or around 22 cars/day.
I know others have done more detailed analyses on the possible ramp-up schedule, but even on this simple math the projections Tesla is offering don't make sense. Someone on another thread (Sig 900+) said their expected due date from Tesla was October. If that were actually true, I don't see any way Tesla gets anything close to 5000 cars done this year. If they're not going to get 5000 cars done this year, they'd better let everyone know sooner rather than later, because the stock will take a hit when that is announced.
I, of course, prefer to believe that they are under-promising by a month on the expected delivery date and that almost all Sigs will be delivered by the end of September, which comports to a schedule to get 5000 cars done by year-end. (fingers crossed)�
Jun 26, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla Morgan Stanley is skeptical about the rampup as well although they raised their production estimates from 2,000 to 3,000 cars by year-end recently.
It's going to be a painful few months...�
Jun 26, 2012
Trnsl8r Is that the same Morgan Stanley that did the brilliant underwriting job on the Facebook IPO? I might just take their estimations with a few grains of salt... :tongue: (Sorry, off topic, I know...)�
Jun 26, 2012
Jason S I know it isn't just the one dude named "Morgan" there, but the Facebook IPO does indicate a certain amount of magical thinking on their part.�
Jun 26, 2012
Jason S If the Sigs are complete by end of October, then 5000 by end of year seems appropriate. If they are not, then the numbers could fall short.
The slow ramp up will be painful. The number of cars estimated for July is really low. Ditto for August. September has many cars, and we don't have much data for tracking Oct-Dec at this point. At current rates, however, we aren't seeing even 20% of the rate that is needed to reach 5000 (P3800 or so, all North America Sigs done) by end of year. So I understand the conservative estimates from places like Morgan Stanley.�
Jun 26, 2012
MitchL That person was probably me. I did not read much into my CR's statement, it's a "feeling", not a fact. It was in no way an official statement, and I did not interpret it as such.
Lots of things can go wrong during ramp. Getting it right is key. If they don't make 5K by the end of the year, that's fine with me, stock hit or not. As long as they make steady improvements in both speed and quality of manufacturing during ramp and dial in the recipe for producing perfect cars every time, they're doing the right thing IMO.
It'd be a huge mistake to put any priority on a specific # of cars by a certain date at this time, since that would necessitate cutting corners, and _that_ will come back to haunt them (as it would any manufacturer of products that get as much customer scrutiny as cars do).
/Mitch.�
Jun 26, 2012
Arnold Panz Thanks, Mitch. It was you. When you finalize your paperwork you will get a firm date of expected delivery on your pre-MVPA, which for me (Sig #304) is September 2012, and will probably say October 2012 for you.
I completely agree that I'd rather wait an extra month and make sure that my car, and all others, are as high quality as possible. However, Tesla was very bold in saying they were making 5000 this year, and they were very specific on the number (and the date) when they didn't have to be. In the same way they said July 2012 for first deliveries, which I assumed would be July 31st, and they beat that by at least a month, I expect that, absent some significant issues during the next couple of months, that they will want to be roughly one month ahead of the dates in the pre-MVPAs in order to try to hit their 5000 car goal.
It would only make sense that Tesla would build in at least a month of buffer in case something (or several things) go wrong as they start to ramp up production, so whether or not they hit their 5000 car goal for 2012 will probably depend on how many bumps along the way they hit, and how significant they are, because otherwise they really should be able to beat the expectations by around a month that they're setting in the pre-MVPA paperwork.�
Jun 26, 2012
Lyon
That is my suspicion/hope as well.�
Jun 26, 2012
DavidM As we watch cars roll off the line this summer, it won't seem like Tesla will make the 5,000 cars in 2012. The ramp up will start very slowly for a lot of reasons. However, since Tesla has indicated their goal of 5,000 cars in 2012, I have no doubt that they will achieve this goal. Personally, I'm feeling really good about the factory meeting the quota. I'm a little fuzzy on the logistics of getting 5,000 cars to customers (in a 6 month time frame). Closing these deals and recognizing the sale transactions on the books. Even if 20% of these cars will be picked up at the factory, that still leaves 4,000 cars to ship to various places (with 2/3 of those shipping in November and December).
I have confidence Tesla will deliver as promised. It will be an educational experience to watch Tesla deliver over the next 6 months!�
Jun 26, 2012
Zextraterrestrial Many people will be 'gettin learned' about Tesla pretty soon....
(the word is not out yet based on my speaking w/ just about everyone I run into )
and I will get mine from Fremont so I can do a 400+ mi drive for my first trip home with my 1st child (sorry dogs you might lose your place - same as if I had a kid) :biggrin:�
Jun 26, 2012
Adm Blog is online...�
Jun 26, 2012
jbherman The new blog is up. TM is implementing a couple of changes for the test drives. No more driving over 75 MPH and no children under 8 years old. Thanks to you Fremonters for ruining it for us in L.A.! :wink:�
Jun 26, 2012
dsm363 No surprises except limiting top speed to 75 mph. Probably smart since no other test drives will have part of the drive take place on a private race track.�
Jun 26, 2012
Arnold Panz And no kids under 8 can go for a test drive. A sad but predictable result of people either not listening to the Tesla person in the car with them, or not watching their kids around a very active loading/unloading area with 10 cars being shuttled in and out. I can't disagree with Tesla's decision on either of these, but it's really a shame that others' negligence forces Tesla to implement rules like this when they'd clearly rather not have to do so.�
Jun 26, 2012
AndyM I think GeorgeB's reasons are very well-expressed. I'm disappointed about the speed limit, but it won't affect the acceleration. And since the other events will not be on closed roads, it's good enough for me.�
Jun 26, 2012
jomo25 Stock is down considerably while rest of market is even-to-up today. All the gains related to the event last week have been given back. Wonder if this is already being corrected for now. Or is it the the last couple of less-than-stellar pseudo-reviews? Or did Lyon let a cat out of the bag
�
Jun 26, 2012
jbherman My response was tongue in cheek. 75 MPH is fine for me and my kids are staying home!�
Jun 26, 2012
Beaker Honored to be the "poster driver" for the video clip. :biggrin:�
Jun 26, 2012
Grendal Nope. It's because of Daimler and it's being discussed on the Investor thread.
As for the Inside Tesla article, it was very well done. Some people had a little too much fun and so some boundries needed to be set. Though to be fair to those in Fremont I watched a lot of those youtube test drives and the Tesla employees were clearly telling people to push the boundries. That said, we've heard and commented about the rear ending incident and that might have had a response from George as well. I enjoyed the big grins video. Anyone from the forum in the video? At least willing to say that it was them?
A moment too late...which were you Beaker?�
Jun 26, 2012
AndyM It would be nice if you (*and others!*) self-identified yourself in the video!�
Jun 26, 2012
AnOutsider Yes, a bit disappointing, but as I've seen firsthand: in general, people don't use common sense (then whine about the nanny state our gov't is in), so I think it's all fair. Sucks we can't get the cars up to speed on private roads in LA (Space X facility is huge), but it is what it is. That they were able to do this so quickly leaves me hope that the cars can be easily "tweaked" (including possibly removing the 130MPH governor?).
Excited that the X will be in Santa Monica this weekend. I may take a trip there to get some more time inside one since it's been a while�
Jun 26, 2012
Beaker Cover still, & at 1:47 to when it splits. My wife's in the center seat, and my daughter who's uncontrollably giggling behind the Tesla rep unseen, and my son in blue with the HUGE grin on his face.�
Jun 26, 2012
Zextraterrestrial have you driven it yet?
75 comes and goes so quickly as does 100mph
braking from 110 can't be tested at 75 either .....just trust me it works very well
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLXsPRzx6hk&feature=related
me, in red w/ T hat waiting for the dolphin with my wife + 2 friends (only one seen, the other is taller - 6-2" the one you can see is 250? maybe)
and here in beginninghttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfwZUtZm-Iohttp:// with the color card
the second vid is better�
Jun 26, 2012
Lyon Hmm... limiting top end speed... can you say "parental controls?"
I'm not too disappointed by the speed limit, in fact, I'm not even all that surprised by it. I'm sure that there were a few people who REALLY wanted to push it and, one could make the argument, that Tesla was encouraging that to a certain extent. The idea, however, that a few people simply disregarded the instructions of the copilot is pretty frightening. I was surprised on our test drive just how much our copilot wanted the driver to push it, if someone went beyond that, he or she was being quite reckless.�
Jun 26, 2012
AndyM I imagine the minor paint-trading incident was a key motivator, even though high speed was not the culprit. I also imagine some carefully-observant insurance underwriters had GeorgeB's ear. I think GeorgeB's reaction was well balanced and transparent.�
Jun 26, 2012
Tempus yeah, no issues really with the restrictions. They make sense from Tesla's perspective for sure, and frankly, a single accident with a small child isn't worth any amount of little ones getting to test ride. (and i know my 5 year old will be really disappointed that he can't ride, but i can't complain).�
Jun 26, 2012
Grendal Bingo. And with the number of Youtube videos out there showing Tesla employees saying it's okay to break the speed limit. If an accident actually happened? Very understandable move on Tesla's part.�
Jun 26, 2012
Trnsl8r I plead "not guilty". My kid knows he has to hold at least one hand as soon as there are cars around.
While at the event, I did think TM could have avoided dangers by restricting kids to only ride in whatever car was in "pole position" closest to the line and enter from the left side, and always "land" that car in the same lane, that way avoiding ever having to cross cars' paths. But yes, George expressed the limitation really well and understandably, and at least now it is clearly expressed in advance and not left to speculation.
And yes, driving faster than passengers are comfortable with (this includes the TM co-pilot) is just rude. I think I saw one of the journalist video reviews punching it up to 100+ in the industrial area stretch by Solyndra. Come on... seriously? One rotten apple...�
Jun 26, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla I'll only accept "guilty with an explanation" :biggrin: (yes, I've been to traffic court a few times�
Jun 26, 2012
vfx There had to be someone out there that ruined it for everyone.
Meddling kids.
�
Jun 26, 2012
spatterso911 All being said, I am glad that some brought their kids to check out the car, and it's exciting to see how much fun they had. It's proof positive that kids will give this ride an enthusiastic thumbs up. My kids are pretty obedient but I know I will be distracted so I don't think it will be fair for my kids. My kids will enjoy the video over and over again. They won't be in it however...�
Jun 26, 2012
Kipernicus It may be wise for me to set a speed limit for myself! I say this in praise of the car, not an excuse: it doesn't "feel" fast even at 80+, it is so quiet, stable, and smooth. And it gets there so quickly! Still it is both understandable and regrettable that George had to set limits on the upcoming drives, and I sure hope I (or my family) didn't contribute to the decision. I apologize to Tesla if we did.�
Jun 26, 2012
spatterso911 I'm just glad we got the opportunity to see how she breathes! Even if the cost is closing the door for others, we can live vicariously through the power of video.�
Jun 26, 2012
AnOutsider We shall see for ourselves soon enough anyway�
Jun 26, 2012
Trnsl8r If it was anything like the Edmunds reviewer (which otherwise was a really good review I thought), I can understand GeorgeB 100%. Did you see this: 2012 Tesla Model S First Drive and Video
Pay notice at around the 2:35 mark, remember that he is driving in a 40mph speed zone, and listen to him call out the speeds.
As for kids... yeah, I think it was a combination of TM not being prepared for people wanting to bring kids and parents being a little giddy after the test drive. I feel sorry for the <8 year-olds down the line, but like I stated earlier... "me not guilty".�
Jun 26, 2012
Doug_G I had slightly, uh, nervous passengers for my ride (see doug's video). The other Roadster owner in the car was nice and quiet, but as I was approaching the big sweeper at 80 mph the other two screamed. Ignoring the distraction, I braked as planned and smoothly entered the corner at about 65 mph.
I thought it was hilarious at the time, and at no time was it anywhere near unsafe - the car could have easily handled that corner at 100 mph. Sorry if that contributed in any way to the speed-limiting. :redface:�
Jun 26, 2012
Jason S Pfft, you were perfectly safe Doug.
I went around the first couple corners trying to make it slide... with minor success on the sharp right at the top of the hill and some slide on the highway on-ramp.
The thing that wasn't going through my brain is what would happen if I did manage to make it break loose; that would've been pretty bad.
With no private roads on the upcoming test drives, I think the 75mph limiter is perfectly fine. Oh, and I still would've managed to make it slide with a 75mph limit. ;-)�
Jun 26, 2012
Zextraterrestrial
I think I was doing the same thing.. on the onramp I was almost worried I was going to slide into the wooden merge sign on the left since I was rocketing passed a car around the first turn and picking up some speed through the second.
My co-pilot said the car could do more than I would be comfortable to give it - so I gave it a shot :wink:
he didn't flinch - the young kid w/ the white hat :biggrin:�
Jun 26, 2012
doug Come on, now. I wasn't nervous. I was just having fun. The main thing was there's nothing to hold onto in the back seat. So I was getting tossed all over the place and having trouble holding onto my electronics.�
Jun 26, 2012
brianman At the 2:43 mark, he passes a red S parked on the shoulder. I'm curious about the story on that one.�
Jun 27, 2012
brianman One of the comments in Doug_G's video regarding not knowing the speed your going reminded me...
Has anybody tested out the cruise control? For example, I'd like to see someone set it to 75 and see how much acceleration it chooses to reach that from, say, 30.�
Jun 27, 2012
Arnold Panz It sounds to me from George B's message that the issue wasn't people like Doug who basically did what the Tesla rep said (get it up to 80+, then take the curve at around 65 mph), but people who essentially ignored what they were being told. I imagine there were a small percentage of drivers who gunned it to 100 or more and then took the turn at a much higher speed than 65 mph, and did who-knows-what else during the drive in contravention of the instructions from the Tesla rep in the vehicle, probably when they hit the highway.
No question, with idiots like that Tesla is better off being safe than sorry for future events, especially without a "private" road.�
Jun 27, 2012
ElSupreme I am pretty sure the little accident that happened got lawyers involved, and insurance agents. And they tightened up the reigns. I have a feeling the 'speed limit' (maybe the 'no kids') rules are to keep Tesla's insurance rates in the non stratospheric range.�
Jun 27, 2012
Doug_G You sign a waiver before getting in, saying your insurance is responsible...�
Jun 27, 2012
Doug_G Yeah, but the Tesla guy was worried sounding, unnecessarily so. Our biggest danger came from ballistic cellphones.�
Jun 27, 2012
Francis Lau Here I am in the video:
.
It is always funny to see and hear myself talk in a video. Now I know what others have to deal with :smile:�
Jun 27, 2012
raymond Volkswagen manages to distribute 30.000+ Golf's over Europe alone every month. Tesla should manage 2.000 per month.�
Jun 27, 2012
Jkam So for those of you inclined to let other people test drive your Model S when you get it, take heed what happened at the Tesla event. You might think you know a person, but if you let them get behind the wheel anything can happen. If you are planning to let other people test drive your new car, I would put limits on them just as George B did.�
Jun 27, 2012
MitchL Makes me wonder if we'll have the ability to impose those limits ourselves from the touch screen. Assuming the car has a "valet mode", it probably also needs "teenager mode"
Roadsters have "normal" and "sport" modes, right?
/Mitch.�
Jun 27, 2012
Lloyd I see an "app for that" developing.�
Jun 27, 2012
Jkam Besides the issue of letting other people test drive my new Model S, I'm having serious apprehension how good this car is going to be for my pocket book. I haven't had a moving violation in over 7 years, but I can foresee myself getting some speeding tickets in the near future.�
Jun 27, 2012
vfx
Does the S have Valet Mode? Was never impressed with the implementation of the Roadster's.�
Jun 27, 2012
MitchL This worries me a little too - I tend to drive the limit (+/-), but even on the short test drive I glanced down at the speedo on I-880 and noticed I was going 75mph. It's so easy to touch the accelerator and take off that I almost(*) want a way to set an upper bound. It's so smooth it's easy to lose track of how fast you're going.
'course choosing red also makes me more attractive. (I haven't even had a parking ticket... ever). The CHP never pulls over dusty gray minivans no matter how fast they go... it's like I'm invisible!
/Mitch.
(*) Um, not really.�
Jun 27, 2012
Kevin Harney My BMW has a Speed Limit Warning. You set what you want and it notifies you if you go over that limit. I find it helpful for this very reason which I am sure will be exagerated in a car with no ICE noise�
Jun 27, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla Oh no, the "bong" again :biggrin:
Speed Control Suggestions�
Jun 27, 2012
vfx And this could be in one of the firmware upgrades that Tesla will be releasing every 8 weeks.�
Jun 27, 2012
Kevin Harney It does not need to be a bong I can set the volume too. In my case it is ZERO.�
Jun 27, 2012
pguerra I am upgrading from P5277 to Sig Performance off the "waitlist". I was told I'd receive the car around Aug/Sept�
Jun 27, 2012
Jason S My MVPA says expect delivery within 30 days of September. That's for Sig 592. I imagine somebody off the waitlist is number 1000+, so I think that puts you into September as well -- I haven't yet seen a Sig projected delivery date in October.�
Jun 27, 2012
strider Well, I would expect that people would treat "your" car different from a "company demo" car. People assume there's no downside to abusing a "demo car" while there would be to a personally-owned one.
I have given probably 50 test drives of my Roadster (friends, coworkers, one guy from a Ford dealer I met at an Earth Day event) and have never had a problem. Well, the Ford guy kept "missing" the turn back into the parking lot so had to do another lap around the block but neither I nor the car were ever in danger�
Jun 28, 2012
unclfuzzy The aftermarket Pioneer nav system I had in my F150 had a feature that was supposed to be able to warn you if you went a certain percentage (user set) over the posted speed limit. I don't remember it working particularly well. If Google maps and/or the turn-by-turn nav maps have accurate speed limit info I see no reason why you shouldn't be able to set relative warnings and limits with an appropriate app or two.�
Jul 3, 2012
Robert.Boston You could bring the whole family to the event and leave your little one with the child care staff that Tesla is providing. That way your wife can join you on the drive, and your son can do fun things with other kids. Sounds like a much lower-stress day to me.�
Jul 3, 2012
Arnold Panz I appreciate the thought, but there is no way that I'm bringing a five year old, who LOVES Tesla and can't wait for me to get my Model S, to the test drive event and leaving him behind with a bunch of strangers while Mommy, Daddy and older brother (10) and sister (8) go off in a brand new Model S for a test drive. Maybe other people's five year olds would be fine with this, but I'm fairly confident my youngest would be livid if I did that, and it would be hard to blame him under the circumstances. This isn't like an infant or toddler who doesn't know what's going on. A 5, 6 or 7 year old is very well aware of things and won't necessarily just willingly go for babysitting while the entire rest of his family gets to go do something fun. I can only compare this to when we go to an amusement park, and he's pissed when he can't go on a ride his older siblings are on, but at least Mom stays behind with him and does something fun with him in the meantime. This would just be cruel to bring him to the event.
Frankly, the real shame is that my wife won't be able to come for the test drive because it would really be worthwhile for her to be able to ride along in the car. I don't blame Tesla at all for this -- this is a direct result of what I consider to be irresponsible parents creating dangerous situations in Fremont that necessitated Tesla's actions, including setting the age limit.�
Jul 3, 2012
Mike_Schlechter I'm having the same issue. My six year-old might be more excited about this car than I am. To bring him and then leave him with the Tesla sitters would be cruel and likely result in a total meltdown at the event.
I'm hoping to leave the kids with my parents for the afternoon of the NY event.�
Jul 3, 2012
Tempus yeah - same issue here. My 6 year old is DYING to see the car, as is my 9 year old. If she gets to ride, and he doesn't, that might even be worse. I'd hate to have my wife sit out, as i really want her to be fully on board with the purchase, but I don't think i'm comfortable leaving the little one with Tesla sitters, considering how excited he is by the Model S.�
Jul 3, 2012
Arnold Panz There is some small comfort in knowing I'm not the only one with this dilemma. I'm not sure how Tesla came up with age 8 as the acceptable age for test drives. Babysitting for a toddler is a much different challenge than a 5/6/7 year old kid. They're not just going to sit there and color quietly for fifteen minutes. I also expect that other events (like Miami) will be much less hectic with three cars than with ten, and I know I'd never let any of my kids wander around in a place with moving cars, regardless of age.
My kids will hopefully get over it once we have the car in hand. The real shame is my wife, who is �ber-skeptical about spending so much on a car, EVs in general etc., and I'd love for her to be able to attend the event and the test drive, but I don't see how it will be possible now.�
Jul 3, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla 8+ must have been mostly motivated by no-more-boosters-required-after atleast in California.
I feel for you guys. I have a different situation on my hands; my son (a couple of months shy of 6) is *not* into the car at all and practically teases me for my addiction to all things Tesla!
I've got to get him out of his world of dinosaurs and sabertooth cats - can you believe that he'd rather go to the La Brea tar pits than Disneyland in LA?!! - and into cars and gadgets!
Okay, way OT now. Anyone thinks the post-June 22 freeze on orders will thaw this week?!�
Jul 3, 2012
AnOutsider Go, take your kids, leave your wife with your child. When you're done, stay with your child and see if your wife can ride with someone else?�
Jul 3, 2012
Arnold Panz AO, it's a nice idea, but no chance. Come back to me in five years and whatever your kid is obsessed with at the time, tell him he can get near it, but only you (and not he) can actually go see the thing that he's wanted to see for a year. It would be like torture to him. I promise you, in a few years you will understand!
[Mods -- sorry to have taken this OT. This all started with a kind invitation from Larry to attend a meet-up, and my explanation that a parent with young kids has no free time to attend such things! My bad]�
Jul 3, 2012
AnOutsider Ugh, don't ruin it for me! I gotcha though. Not having been there yet, I can't fully appreciate what that situation would be like. As for going OT, I'll move this out to another thread (like the inside Tesla where this was announced)�
Jul 3, 2012
Arnold Panz I don't mean to make it sound bad! That 3-6 year range when kids get waaaay obsessed with stuff is awesome, even if it's something that annoys you. Watching them become masters of something is incredible, especially when just a couple of years ago they were flesh blobs that ate, pooped and slept (sometimes all at once!). My five year old obsessed over the Beatles for a year, then the NBA, and now Tesla (all three mostly as a result of his older brother). He now knows the words to every Beatles song, the team and uniform # of every NBA player, and can configure a Model S into an infinite number of variations, and has seen every YouTube video approximately 1000 times, especially since the test drives started last weekend.�
Jul 3, 2012
DavidM Too bad Tesla can't do a "Ride Swap" ala Disney.�
Jul 3, 2012
VolkerP I hope for all of you with kids under age of 8 that test drives will be possible after the 'Get Amped' Tour. I am aware that this might be too late for some early reservation holders to decide in the first case. If my wife had second thoughts that could be relieved by a test drive, I would defer ordering the car. What's another few months? :crying:�
Jul 3, 2012
jerry33 Sound pretty good to me. 'course, I've been to both and La Brea is the destination of choice.�
Jul 3, 2012
Arnold Panz And cheaper!!�
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