Feb 19, 2014
kishdude There are many who say that Tesla�s meteoric rise in the auto industry can not continue because there will be competitors coming that will take a bite out of their market. Well I feel that there are no real competitors to Tesla at present and will not be for quite some time. Why? Well we really need to see what a real competitor to the Model S would have to have in order to compete. Here is a list.
1) Fully electric - No hybrid can compete because a hybrid is poor with acceleration, carries unnecessary extra weight in the form of two propulsion systems and also has more moving parts that need to be maintained and repaired all at an increased priced as compared to an ICE car. I think hybrids appeal to buyers of ICE cars that want better gas mileage, not electric cars. Being a hybrid is why the Fisker failed and also why the BMW i8 won�t do well. Besides, hybrid cars have poor acceleration as compared to the fully-electric Model S.
2) Design - Lets face it, at present an electric car is expensive due to the cost of the batteries. This will change in the future and when it does, Tesla�s car prices will come down, but in the mean time electric cars are expensive. Given the expense, no one wants to spend a lot of money on something that looks bad. This is one of many disadvantages of the Nissan Leaf and why it can�t compete with the Model S. Same with the BMW i3.
3) UI - In 2007 When Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone it was a leap in usability in that any application can have any UI it wishes to and this can change dynamically with future updates. This is also exactly the reason that the 17-inch touch screen is a huge advantage for Tesla even if it was an ICE vehicle. Users love the touch interface and the ability to have remote updates with new features. This is the most under appreciated feature of the car. In the future all car interfaces will be like this.
4) Super Charger network - If you are going to have a fully electric car, you need to have a way for people to go on long trips. Tesla is at least 2-3 years ahead of anyone else in this and building this network requires a lot of legwork. Getting the technology, permissions, construction, etc. By the end of 2014 the vast majority of the country will be covered. I think that this is the single biggest barrier to entry for a competitor. There may be a company that builds a car in every aspect very similar to the Model S, but without a supercharger network, why would anyone but it over the Tesla?
5) Tesla Service - I�ve owned many cars including many expensive ones such as a Mercedes, BMW, and Porsche, but by far the Tesla service experience is so superior. First is the fact that with minimal moving parts, the amount of time the car needs to be serviced is much lower and the experience of the Tesla service is second to none.
So whenever you read or hear that other companies will soon be competing with Tesla, please remember that any competitor must have all of these features. The lack of even one is really a deal breaker. This is why Tesla has no competition at present and not soon to have any in near future. The TSLA stock may well have gotten ahead of itself and we may see some pullback, but long term this company is a paradigm shift for transportation.�
Feb 19, 2014
kenliles good synopsis.
I would add a Direct Sales model that current manufacturers can never deploy
and a (nearly) fully vertically integrated model that others have chosen not to deploy yet requires a massive change to do so�
Feb 19, 2014
AnOutsider Really, only 4 and 5 can be seen as unique barriers, and even then, not insurmountable.
That there is a big one, but not sure that a full EV sold at dealers couldn't compete. The Leaf seems to be doing fine.�
Feb 19, 2014
wcalvin I'd say only #4, Supercharger Network. Anything that isn't a 80mi commuter car is going to have to provide something equivalent or buy licenses from Tesla.
But also Tesla has a 3-4yr lead on various aspects of the technology. It will now take deep pockets to make a run on Tesla's dominance.
From Elon's statements about bringing along the industry, however, he might be willing to license a lot, running the risk of another Kodak.�
Feb 19, 2014
772 How about the human capital that Tesla has? Elon, JB, et al. That's a very significant advantage that rarely gets mentioned.�
Feb 19, 2014
kenliles +1 maybe the most important of all;�
Feb 19, 2014
sleepyhead By far the most important barrier to entry.�
Feb 19, 2014
derekt75 I'm thinking the real problem is a lack of willingness rather than anything else.
I was thinking about this with TSLA's market cap approaching half of GM's, which seems a bit ridiculous to me given how many more resources GM has at its disposal than TSLA. or does it? If I owned a majority of GM, how could I make a successful EV business with all of my resources? GM is taking in 155b in revenue compared to TSLA's 2b, but could GM use that revenue to invest in superchargers and EVs? They're saddled with little operating income, and they need to invest in things like the next Chevy Cruze, where you're just not going to be able to make a great EV for under $20k.
So, while I might at first think that a $155b company would find it easier to roll out a supercharging network than a $2b company, I'm not sure that's true. Similarly, I'm not sure how much GM could realistically invest into battery technology for an EV Escalade.
If they did, I think they'd have something. Cadillac owns a fair amount of knowledge in how to make some electronic gadgets work (like adaptive cruise control, blind spot warning, lane departure warning, etc.), and has a lot more firmware resources that they could put on those features.
If they were willing to put their workforce into building a BEV competitor to Tesla, I don't think any of kishdude's elements could stop them. They could go fully electric. They could invest heavily on battery design and get a good contract from Panasonic. They could make a very nice UI. They could build out a SuperCharger network as fast as Tesla can, and they could probably build out a better service network than Tesla.
but they won't because they're too busy trying to make a profit with today's (yesterday's?) technology and they don't have a huge surplus of funds to invest in the future.
As my coworker says: when your boat's leak is forcing you to spend 100% of your time bailing water out, it's tough to justify the time to look for a plug.
Which major car company is willing/able to invest in the EV future at the expense of their current operating income?
None.
That's the only reason why Tesla has no competition.�
Feb 19, 2014
EV2BFREE If there is another car company that decides to start producing as many EVs as Tesla will in the coming years, where will they get the batteries from? Also, will consumers buy another brand of EV that doesn't have its own network of Superchargers?�
Feb 19, 2014
Ludus I think there are a lot of engineering decisions that also are critical to Tesla getting it right.
The "skateboard" containing the entire drivetrain with a flat battery pack that acts to enhance rigidity while making the center of gravity supernaturally low and at the same time positioning the battery pack for rapid automated swaps is major. The patented details of the Tesla battery pack using large quantities of simplified laptop batteries give both a cost advantage and an advantage in controlling thermal runaway.
Tesla Model S is made of a few high level modules. It's elegantly simple in a way no ICE design or hybrid can be. Ultimately that modularity will make Tesla's easier to maintain, repair, and remanufacture reducing their depreciation compared to ICE cars and reducing their cost of ownership over ICE cars despite higher prices.
Will traditional car companies eventually emulate those decisions? Sure, but it won't be until their market share is seriously eroded because any Tesla-killer models they produce would mostly cannibalize sales from their own ICE product lines. BMW i3 and i8 are niche products carefully designed to not cannibalize any existing product sales so they also end up not competing with Tesla which is aiming squarely at 7 Series.�
Feb 19, 2014
SCW-Greg It's only now that the others are taking TM seriously. So more than a year later after the first Model S rolled off the line, are some of the competitors likely starting to deploy resources to this alternative.
Yet the R&D it will take, just to catch up, just to understand some basics in battery technology, will take them a year ( and whopping financial diversions from their already week profit line). And they'll need people with true chemical understanding of Li and other forms of bat tech. These people are already hard to come by, let alone getting them innovating/forward thinking on the cutting-edge solutions they'll need. Think pack design, form factor, cooling, charging rates, limits, discharging, etc, etc.
The whole design (car eco system) has to be well thought out. Manufacturing, maintenance, lifetime/longevity testing, not only the pack, but also new electronic management systems.
Then you get into real software development, as in OS level first. Then core drive systems. And let's face it, this is *not* Detroit's forte. And not likely for Japan or Germany either. This is Silicone Valley turf.
They'll have to find talent, assemble teams, and start at ground zero, setting overarching objectives before they even start. And the internal work environment (thinking big corp. entrenched silos and egos) is likely to be challenging at best. They won't be operating like a true (hungry) startup.
Each of these are multi-year projects, if you have the stomach and drive to get them done. If you're not motivated, and only dabble in it, timelines could double. Product design efforts could be compromised. Can you envision a new EV only version of the Volt, to come out 2 years from now, with a whopping 110 mile range?!
And if you get any of these wrong, it could be a billion $ write-off.
By then TM's Gen III will be taking off. On the back drop of the of the Model S and Model X.�
Feb 20, 2014
VolkerP Renault/Nissan has a sound EV strategy. Why they chose to go electric in the very price sensitive market of small/medium cars and light duty vehicles, I don't know.
BMW is tasting the waters with the i3 and a new sub brand BMWi. This was not a decision of the board of directors but the BMW owner family (Quandt) instead. It was forced upon the existing BMW organization and there were bruises all around.�
Feb 20, 2014
tftf Hmm. Nissan-Renault has invested around 4 to 5 billion EUR over the years in various EVs and several large battery plants. They are the global EV unit market leader. Given recent announcements, they will continue to invest heavily in the sector in the coming years. (I also see Nissan as a leader in autonomous vehicle research together with Daimler, GOOG and TSLA).
Given the valuations, I see Nissan-Renault as the most interesting mass-market car maker (expertise in EVs and driverless cars vs market cap).�
Feb 20, 2014
jerry33 My guess would be that the profit margins on small cars is already slim so there wouldn't be as much of a hit on their bottom line.�
Feb 20, 2014
kenliles Here's another way that Direct Sales model can stifle new competition. When your unique position is written into law!
Tesla wins battle against auto dealers in Washington state, but future rivals are screwed - GeekWire�
Feb 20, 2014
AnOutsider Off topic, but that's not an ideal solution. Perhaps it should have been written that manufacturers can't compete with their dealers.�
Feb 20, 2014
dsm363 Are you saying Tesla wanted it that way and how does this indicate the direct sale model did this? Their #1 goal is of course to protect their own interests as a company but they never asked to exclude all other future entrants.�
Feb 20, 2014
richkae Won't it be funny if 5 years down the road the manufacturers go to congress begging them to overturn all the dealership protection laws because they are crippling their ability to get new products to market?�
Feb 20, 2014
kenliles No- In fact I believe Tesla would rather eliminate all dealership laws. It was the Tesla protesters that pressure that got the exception written into the law (so they could continue it at all). The Tesla supporters also did call for an exception, but my point is this is how the politicians twist into a paid agenda without causing a major storm that will halt the whole deal.
But Yes- I believe the Tesla direct sales model did in fact cause this legislation - One of the House sponsors said exactly so- that the purpose was to 'save dealerships'- doesn't get much clearer for me I guess
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+1 to that; The problem is the Dealers are the ones in control of state politics not the manufacturers - that's why I see Tesla winning this direct sales model battle a very important strategic advantage against existing manufacturers (and possible new ones if this WA law become adopted). I'm guessing if Elon had his way, he'd just as soon have all manufacturers able to direct sale though�
Feb 20, 2014
richkae Evidence:
Dealers Seem Confused About How To Sell The 2014 BMW i3
Heret Want The Cadillac ELR�
Feb 22, 2014
WS6_Mac The difference is that Elon's goal is to create a sustainable energy transportation solution.
All other automotive companies goals are to crate is high profit margins.�
Feb 22, 2014
Robert.Boston I'm not so sure; the soul of the auto companies appear to me to be "motor heads" intent on the goal of refining the art of the ICE and diesel engines. That is why so few will successfully transfer their brands to the post-petroleum era: not for lack of capital, but for their inability to discard their core competitive advantage.�
Feb 22, 2014
SebastianR This. And it is soooo hard to change that culture. That's why I think the big competition may not come from Prosche, Audi or BMW but may come from Samsung, LG or another massive Asian industrial conglomerates who figures that in some ways a modern tablet/TV/consumer electronics product may be closer to a Tesla than an ICE car is to a Tesla.
I assume that we will see dramatic change in the industry but since most car components outside the drive-train are not really done by car makers themselves I don't think that the industry beyond the big 'known' car makers will be in deep trouble. Bosch etc. should be doing fine. Where I see massive changes is in the distribution/retail/service landscape: if car dealers don't evolve (and currently it doesn't look like they are) they will be gone soon.�
Feb 22, 2014
austinEV I wonder if LG or Samsung would suffer for lack of shuttered auto factories laying around. A US startup has a unique advantage there, right? I get the impression TM could buy several factories for pennies on the dollar if it came to that.�
Feb 22, 2014
Krugerrand And yet with a fraction of the money Tesla produced the Roadster, the Model S, soon the Model X, and soon a Giga Factory, and soon the Gen III. I'd say Nissan better triple their spending and quick.�
Feb 22, 2014
kishdude I just watched this presentation by JB Straubel:
JB Straubel | [email�protected] SLAC 2013 - YouTube
This is really a must watch for anybody long or short TSLA. In this video is the real barrier to entry for any competitor. He says that by 2019, Tesla hopes to sell about 700,000 cars which seems like a big number but is still less than 1% of the total new car production of the world for a year so definitely achievable. The interesting thing is that basically he says that all of the components of the cars are commodities (such as windshields, tires, metal, etc) except for the for the battery. 700,000 cars would require more batteries than the current entire world's production of batteries. This is the reason for the upcoming gigafactory and only Tesla will have it. Unless the competitors are designing and planning on building their own battery factories, they will have no room to grow and hence no one will be able to complete. This move is absolutely brilliant.
Tesla will be the only company with the infrastructure to be able to bring EVs to the masses. This gigafactory is probably the single most important investment Tesla can make to ensure it's future and block any competition.�
Feb 22, 2014
StapleGun It's a funny thought, Tesla scooping up empty Big 3 plants just as fast as they can close them down.�
Feb 22, 2014
chickensevil Again, I think this is where Nissan is the only ones keeping up with the pace at all here. Since they do actually have their own battery factory.�
Feb 23, 2014
tftf Nissan-Renault has already built three large battery plants (actually more, but three big ones for the LEAF) with that money.
Tesla has yet to unveil the investment size for the upcoming Giga factory and the Gen III, I don't think you can compare the two numbers.
- - - Updated - - -
There are strong indicators that more car companies will directly control battery production in the future once they decide to produce more EVs and PHEVs.
Nissan-Renault was the first company to achieve this, it is ready today with three big plants. Niche players like Fisker (Wanxiang/A123) and Saab (with Bejing Battery) are following the same path in 2014. Both that battery factories under direct control.
Similar plans are dicussed in Germany and Asia in car company boardrooms (not public yet, we will see announcements in 2015 according to my sources).
As others mentioned as well, long-term EV competitors for car companies (including Tesla) will be the likes of Samsung, LG or even IT companies like Google or Apple.
They have the capital, branding in the end-user space and technology. It doesn't strategically make sense for large battery suppliers to accept low margins when they can forward-integrate and make the entire car (like Asus and other suppliers realized in the IT world) and control car services (navigation, in-car entertainment, repair service etc).�
Feb 23, 2014
Mario Kadastik Fisker is a bad example considering they went bankrupt
�
Feb 23, 2014
tftf I'm talking about the new Fisker (post bankruptcy) owned by Wanxiang, the old Fisker didn't have control over its battery supply with A123. Wanxiang already made Li-Ion batteries for 13 years and also controls A123 Systems since early 2013. It already was a fully integrated EV maker in China (buses etc.) and is now entering the global high-end segment with Fisker. Same for the "new" Saab. See the Fisker and Saab threads in this forum where I added more links and details for anyone interested. Both companies will continue to focus on China in the future and likely become competitors for BYD and other local EV producers.
I expect most car manufacturers to start producing (or at least enter a JV with a large manufacturer) their own batteries over time for EVs and PHEVs. Nissan-Renault was the first company to realize this some years ago - it's next to impossible to create mass-production EVs without direct control over the battery supply chain. Expect news from Germany and Asia over the next 12-24 months from big manufacturers on battery production and battery joint-ventures.
However, this integration strategy also bears technology and investment risks (large battery plants are billion $ investments). Nissan-Renault had to write-down battery and EV investments since sales were slower than anticipated back in 2011 and 2012. They are now picking up since the decision was made to add local manufacturing in the US and Europe (lower manufacturing costs etc.) - local LEAF production was finalized in 2013, including local battery plants in each sales region.�
Feb 23, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney @tftf
Cell IP is owned by cell companies, but car manufacturers select a tech and make their own batteries.
Tesla has one product, at a premium price and it's selling new cell volume at the fastest rate, AND it's set to double production this year, AND it has an upconing product that has a growing reservation list.
Now look at it from Panasonic's perspective. You have a customer buying in huge volume, the volume's growingand then they say to you "We want to sell a cheaper product. If we hit our overall price target of $35k base, we're looking at hundreds of thousands of sales per year with a probable minimum 60kWh battery in each car. We think that building a full cycle battery plant in a hot, sunny place in the USA would be the best way to lower overall battery cost. Any interest in doing the cell production bit?"�
Feb 23, 2014
kenliles @tftf
All of my reading on those other mfg plans and discussions you're referring to are to manufacture their own battery packs. Tesla has been doing that for years already (as have a few others), although not withy the size and design of Tesla batteries of course.
But no one has talked about integrating from raw materials into the same plant (much less on this scale, matching current world production). And of course even on that scale, Tesla admits it won't be enough for SX and E. It sounds like you believe other mfg efforts are on par or competively positioned with this effort or only slightly behind? I can't tell for sure. But if that's true, it would be a revelation indeed�
Feb 23, 2014
tftf The three examples I mentioned may not include recycling (but companies do use spent batteries, see PS below) or processing of raw materials, but all three companies do more than just assemble battery packs.
See here for the Nissan example:
Nissans New US Battery Plant Shows Major Dedication To EVs - HybridCars.com
(Nissan has three battery factories on three continents, the one in the US is just one.)
As for the numbers involved:
So Tesla's upcoming and even bigger plant will not come cheap (even if it uses a different cylindrical cell approach) since each battery pack is larger (Tesla long-range EVs obviously pack more kWh than current LEAF batteries) and the plant will apparently include recycling. These are the challenges I referred to in other threads.
PS: Nissan has different recycling/reuse programs for spent batteries with Sumitomo:
NISSAN | NISSAN AND SUMITOMO TO INITIATE BUSINESS FOR ELECTRIC-CAR BATTERIES
Note the 2009 date. Nissan has thought about these things for a long time as well.�
Feb 23, 2014
Krugerrand Gen III will be financed by the sale of Model S and X.
Tesla's Giga Factory will be the largest on the planet and produce more batteries per year than the entire world's current production, making Nissan's battery production (which is not on the same 'entirety' scale) look rather small. We also know that Tesla will not be forking over all the money for the Giga Factory, since they'll have partnerS, but even then, we know it can't be the kind of dollar figure you've been touting since the start because Elon Musk said Tesla could finance their portion if they were willing to let the time frame extend beyond three years, which they seem inclined not to do, thus the talk of raising capital to complete the project within 3 year' time.
So, okay, you don't want to compare the numbers, fine. Then let's also not give the impression that Nissan was somehow more dollar effective then Tesla has shown to date or will continue to show moving forward. Remember who got the bigger chunk of money from the DOE between Tesla and Nissan, and who paid their loan back. Remember who's also been financing SuperCharger infrastructure, along with paying for all their own showrooms/galleries and service centers, offering service at 0% profit, fighting NADA in several states etc... Dollar for dollar, it's really hard to argue any other car manufacturer as being as effective with their cash.�
Feb 23, 2014
tftf I didn't intend that, the numbers are hard to compare because Nissan has a decentralized approach and uses different batteries. Nissan probably spent more and was less effective so far compared to Tesla, also because Nissan's and Reanult initiatives in mass-market production started earlier.
The whole premise of my posts above was to show that other car companies have spent a lot of money and R&D time in
- integrated battery manufacturing
- battery recycling and reuse (for example in stationary energy systems)
- free charging offers
etc.
True, Nissan-Renault is probably the only mass-market company that has started such initiatives. The new Fisker and SAAB efforts so far are only niche production numbers. But they all show that Tesla is not the only company involved in these EV areas and services. There is competition assuming Tesla produces a Model E in a few years (=enters the mass market).�
Feb 23, 2014
chickensevil i don't think anyone thinks tesla is the only one trying, the question is when someone else will release a legitimate competitor to a Tesla. For as much as I admire Nissan for trying, the leaf leaves a lot out that should really be there... Performance, thermal management of the battery, longer range... To name a few.
If anyone stands a chance, I think Nissan is the only one that will come close... Maybe BMW.�
Feb 23, 2014
Krugerrand Put this way, Tesla wins (again) and so does mankind.�
Feb 23, 2014
tftf I also wouldn't count VW Group out over the next five years. While they may be a latecomer today some of their main brands, namely Audi and VW, have started a lot of R&D in EVs and PHEVs (Porsche will also follow with more PHEVs).
If we include PHEVs, GM may also have an interesting vehicle with the Volt successor, but I don't follow GM closely enough and I haven't seen much public info about the next Volt (apparently due 2016 or 2017).�
Feb 23, 2014
jerry33 Ghosn said it pretty well: Every day that another manufacturer doesn't start getting serious is a good day for us. Applies to Tesla as well as Nissan. Yes, everyone has a program, but most appear to be hoping it will go away without doing more than just lip service. Fisker and SAAB are now Chinese companies and I suspect it will be a long time before Western acceptance comes as the first cars are likely to be less than stellar.�
Feb 23, 2014
Robert.Boston I love driving an Audi; for me personally, I've never had a car that fit my brain and body quite so well. That said, I think the VW Group is in a serious case of EV denial. BMW has the i3/i8; Daimler, the (Tesla-powered) B-series, but Audi only has a vague promise of a Q EV, while canceling the eTron line. VW/Audi/Porsche is perhaps the clearest example of the "gear head" mentality that will respond to the rewrite of automotive history too little, too late.�
Feb 24, 2014
30seconds I'll add Hyundai. This is a massive and well run industrial conglomerate. They have a whole division that builds very large factories for biotech and semiconductor industries. And of course pretty good cars under $40k.
plus when they commit to a space they invest big and don't expect results for the better part of a decade.
Now ow that Tesla is laying out the game plan I would not be surprised to see them jump in over the next two years.�
Feb 24, 2014
SebastianR I think that's a very good point. Was uncertain if I should include them when I mentioned LG and Samsung but thinking about it, Hyundai is probably a very credible contender if they decide to go for it.
Anyways, I think the point is really that for decades traditional car makers outsourced everything that's not 'core value' (ICE) just to wake up now and realize that their 'core value' is about to be majorly disrupted. From their perspective Tesla should really only be seen as a first of many...�
Feb 24, 2014
tftf Hyundai and Kia split their efforts along the brand lines according to sources. Hyundai does hydrogen and Kia does EVs (the first exported one being the Soul EV coming later this year). That may change in the future, but at the moment each brand focuses on one alternative propulsion system.�
Aug 14, 2016
S?XY P100D Great OP!
Would like to resurrect this thread since there's EV competition on the horizon from Mercedes, Faraday Future and quite possibly Apple. Can't believe it's been almost 3 years since this thread opened and still there aren't any pure EV and supercharging network alternatives to Tesla.�
Aug 14, 2016
iwannam3 In Australia ever "gas" station has to have diesel and propane. That eliminates "range anxiety" in propane vehicles. If the gov mandated every "gas" station had to have 2 150 kw charging stations it would level the playing field for non-Tesla players. They would not be free and the stations would generate revenue to replace that lost by reduced gas sales. And they would sell more junk food as you waited.�
Aug 14, 2016
wycolo Conventional businesses still hoping Government will pack a free lunch for them in the form of subsidized Fast DC Charging network. We could be waiting a long time.
--�
Aug 14, 2016
ecarfan What is your definition of "on the horizon"? Based on what I see, the real competition is at least 3 years away.�
Aug 14, 2016
Alketi I was going to say the same thing. Most of those companies are targeting 2018-2021 for their 200 mile EV efforts, and in limited quantity (one or two models).
It seems like the Bolt will be the only real player/competitor for the immediate future.
It's striking that this 2014 post still applies today, and for the next few years.�
Aug 14, 2016
TMSE GM confirms 60 kWh battery pack for the Bolt EV and DC fast-charging will be optional [full specs]
Fast charging option costs extra in Chevy Bolt. Guess how fast is that fast charging? About 50kw! It doesn't matter if you have 150kw charger when your car is limited to much lower charge rate.
Compare that to Tesla's 145kw rate! It will be many more years before other manufacturers figure it out!
Tesla boosts Supercharger electric-car charging rate to 145 kw�
Aug 14, 2016
S?XY P100D Optimistically 1-3 years - about the same time as the Model 3 production release. Other than Tesla progress has been rather slow. That's quite sad, actually.�
Aug 14, 2016
Chopr147 Exactly. No matter how good an EV Mercedes and other brands make, how will they travel? Drive for 3 hours and then what? Plug in for 8 hours? They are IMHO 5 years at least behind Tesla in the charging aspect. I'm sure Mercedes can make a great EV if they want to but it is going to take more than just the car�
Aug 14, 2016
S?XY P100D Yes, they can adopt the Tesla supercharging network although I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if they were to do just that.�
Aug 14, 2016
nexsuperne101 Being able to drive for 3 hours in the UK may well be all that is needed. For me, 140 miles a day is enough for all my work related driving.
The Nissan Leaf that I currently have needs one rapid charge per day, so the 200 mile offering would be fine with me. That's why I will be chucking the Leaf in and getting the 60D Model S, as it is perfect for my needs, if the most expensive thing (apart from my house) that I have ever bought. I won't need a supercharger, as the range, even in the depths of winter, will still be fine.�
Aug 14, 2016
EV-lutioin This totally makes sense, perhaps the only way to get mainstream automakers to sell EVs will be to create completely new companies (like GM did with Saturn, albeit without success). Otherwise they will continue to run up against reluctant ICE dealerships. Saturn was a fairly successful model for a while, but GM let it languish over time.�
Aug 15, 2016
schonelucht Fast charging startups are popping up all over the place in Europe. Furtest along is Fastned with 50 locations with 50kW DC charging which they will upgrade to 150kW next year. The Swiss fast charge startup Go Fast recently powered up their first location with 150kW charging too with plans to expand rapidly. Allego is on track for 350 fast charging sites all over Europe (mainly Germany) by the end of this year. They too are part of CharIn, so I'd expect them to have 150kW capabilities by the end of 2017 as well.
At least in Europe Tesla is still well in the lead but alternative fast charging solutions are coming online rapidly enough that I'd estimate the lead to be no more than 2 years. Obviously in those 2 years Tesla will expand too, but it is not impossible that by the end of 2018 there are just as much non-Tesla 100+kW fast chargers than there are superchargers.
In my opinion, Tesla's lead in electric cars that actually can take advantage of true fast charging is larger than it's lead in fast charging infrastructure. At least for Europe.�
Aug 15, 2016
bonaire What is pricing on the per-kWh level of the 50KW DCFC? And is it CHAdeMO? It's too bad the USA is not nearly as progressive as Europe regarding this. But I have to wonder what the per-kWh for those DCFC - is it exorbitant (a quarter Euro or more per kWh) or is it reasonable. Here, we have seen public charging as much as .49/kWh USD - meaning - three to five times residential kWh pricing and making gasoline FAR CHEAPER for people to choose. Last week, I saw $1.75 regular gas in my travels in the southern USA. And in that area, I have only seen one plug-in during five weeks of visits (a Volt). Also saw a Tesla in New Orleans - maybe it was NOLA_Mike.
I would like to see DCFC be spread out to the point of 7000-8500 spots across the USA. It is close to 3000 now. This map may look good for CHAdeMO - but not nearly good enough. Thousands more are needed for down-market EVs to "take off" and then growth of those stations further once that occurs. This cannot be a bunch of .49/kWh network folks looking to "cash in" on overpriced "new fuel". The press will not write well about EVs if this is the case and that keeps buyers away.
USmap � CHAdeMO Association
And yes, I know that most EV owners charge at home primarily. But most EV "prospects" don't think that way until educated.�
Aug 15, 2016
ecarfan Keep in mind that gasoline in Europe four times or more the cost of what it is in the US, so EV charging stations can cost what to you might be "exorbitant" but still result in an EV being significantly less costly to operate in Europe than an ICE.�
Aug 15, 2016
mmccord I don't mind paying $.49/kwh for a fast charge when necessary. This is about $35 for a 0-90% charge. (70kwh).
If it was my daily charging, I'd be concerned about the cost, but I don't need charging on the road that often.
More important than the expense, is the time required. 50kw isn't exactly fast. 120-150kw is better.�
Aug 15, 2016
Dwdnjck Besides Teslas, which mostly don't need them, who is going to use these fast chargers?�
Aug 15, 2016
bonaire I got one: Hourly government workers who get paid by the hour and are also required to drive new fleet EVs. The slower the charge, the better for them. (Ever see those township or local municipal trucks driving around under the speed limit in your area? Happens in the USA but put government workers into EVs and require them to charge at these chargepoints and anything goes.)�
Aug 15, 2016
Jeff N Those are old specs from January. They say 50 kW but they also say 90 miles in 30 minutes and 80% (160 miles?) in an hour. Those claims work out to an average of about 45 kW for the 80% charge and 50 kW for the 30 minute charge. Presumably the peak could be somewhat higher but they haven't given that yet.
They said not much later that the car has been validated for charging at faster rates and they had not yet decided on a final peak rate and charging curve yet.
It's even possible, though perhaps not likely, that the Bolt will exceed 200A charging when hooked up to a faster "150 kW" station. For example, the Kia Soul is normally limited to 125A by the CHAdeMO standard but when plugged into an experimental 200A charger it is willing to charge at near 175A.
CCS today is specification limited to 200A although most chargers share a CHAdeMO plug and are design limited to CHAdeMO's 125A. When a Bolt is plugged into a future 240A, 300A, or 350A station following the new CCS specifications expected to be finalized during the next year will the Bolt exceed 200A? We probably won't know until someone tries.
GM should be dropping updated official Bolt EV specs any day now but they will probably still reflect today's 200A CCS limit.
Those European charging stations are mostly supporting both CHAdeMO and CCS, I think. The same will likely be true in the US for a number of years while CHAdeMO cars are on the road.�
Aug 15, 2016
schonelucht It is generally expensive (30-60ct/kWh), although some have subscription models. For example FastNed offers all-you-can-charge for 99EUR/month. Most DC charging stations allow for both CCS and CHAdeMO but I think the future is going to be CCS.�
Aug 15, 2016
EnzoXYZ Tesla's SCs are free and probably marginal fee for model 3. Every other will cost something. Don't underestimate people's cheapness. People already driving out of way to charge at tesla's SC vs. at home.
Gigafactory still major advantage for Tesla and hurddle for all other mass production manufactures. No company including Tesla can build mass EV today but this is about to change for Tesla.
Design/ features/safety still an advantage for tesla as they refuse to build bad cars. Can't be said for 90% of manufactures.
In the USA I believe the direct sale is and can be the biggest advantage. 15-20% cut to the middleman is a lot of many to reinvest. And dealing with stealership RIP.
I think other companies are underestimating Musk's ability and drive to perfect building the machine to build machines. Vertical integration of hardware and software is back and so is the ability to control all aspect of the car.
As the recent transition to Tesla vs Tesla Motors should tell you it's not just a car company anymore.�
Aug 15, 2016
adiggs There's also no reason to overestimate people's cheapness. The statement, as written, is absolutely true. Without some idea / evidence of the magnitude, we are also unable to judge the size of the issue, and therefore decide whether it's an actual problem, or just something that sounds scary.
One extreme example - if 1 person goes out of their way to charge at a SC instead of at home, one time per week, then this is true. And of course meaningless. If 90% of owners do so weekly, then this is a business model problem for TSLA. Reality is somewhere in between, probably, and without the magnitude we're all just guessing when we incorporate the issue into our decision making.
My guess, is that this is a minor issue. Then again, I drive a Roadster and have little reason to visit a Supercharger, and that bias colors my perception of things, possibly to my detriment. Evidence of the magnitude of the occurrence of the issue would be hugely valuable and help shape my perception of whether this is a problem or not, and would help me make an investing decision.
Do you have anything you can point to that suggests magnitude?�
Aug 15, 2016
TMSE If I may add, most people who own Tesla commute to work. A lot of companies are already providing free/subsidized charging at work. It will only increase over time. And, soon we might see govt mandating workplace car charging as a required employee benefit.
Most cheap types that I know charge at work.�
Aug 16, 2016
Mario Kadastik I think most of the so called 150kW stations are in fact 3x50kW stations with three plugs each able to do 150kW. I doubt there are too many stations that actually run 100+ kW today.�
Aug 16, 2016
schonelucht The Swiss stations can do 150kW to one car or dynamically schedule down to 50kW when three cars are charging at the same time. It is very similar to Tesla's supercharging model.�
Aug 16, 2016
PtG62901 There is lots of historical examples about existing companies not making the switch to new technologies and failing. If you are interested, there is a book that talks about it The Innovator's Dilemma - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia . I wouldn't be surprised to see most of the current ICE market leaders fall, as the world changes. Being first at true EV now, is very valuable.�
Aug 16, 2016
vgrinshpun It appears that the limit to one car, according to the link provided in your post, is 120kW:
�
Aug 16, 2016
adiggs I wonder if @ChadS or others have information on company provided free / subsidized charging. How commonly is that available in the US? Is that more common in California than elsewhere?
My personal / anecdotal experience is that my employer does provide workplace charging opportunities. We also pay the same $/kwh as I would be paying at home in my garage (or effectively the same - it might be .10 instead of .11). But I'm also not in California and have much lower $/kwh electricity here.
I would expect a significant fraction of drivers to fill up at work if it's free / cheaper to fill up at work, whether they drive electric or gas vehicles. My assumption / guess is that workplace charging is at most, prevalent among larger companies, and rare among small companies. As a population, I expect that most Tesla owners lack workplace charging options, much less having free / subsidized workplace charging available.
But that's my guess.
Workplace charging is clearly a possible solution to the problem of how one charges their car and live in an apartment complex with no or limited charging opportunities. Especially for those living in an apartment complex that lacks sufficient parking for everybody to have a car, much less a spot for everybody to charge.
Today I don't see much of a societal level move to implementing infrastructure at that level, but I'm open to the idea it's happening and I just haven't seen information about it. I don't see much appetite for a government mandate that companies provide the benefit, though I can readily imagine a subset of companies seeing this as a relatively cheap mechanism to provide a valuable benefit and establish their environment cred.�
Aug 16, 2016
schonelucht The media release from GO FAST makes it clearer that 150kW goes to one car. I believe the confusing graphics are because it is really an exercise in futility, there is no car that can take that power. Not even a Tesla since the adapter sadly limits to 50kW. ABB has a charging system for buses that goes up to 450 kW currently in use in Luxembourg and another in planning phase in Belgium.�
Aug 16, 2016
Chopr147 I don't really need the SC or a work charger for everyday usage, home charger will be sufficient. But I did speak to the mayor of our small village regarding this and he plans on putting one or two chargers in. Just looking for how to pay for it�
Aug 17, 2016
EnzoXYZ This would solve the problems for people that live in apartments/condos if the employer see this as a competive advantage. Hope to see more companies do this. I wouldn't imagine this to be popular in high density Mega cities.�
Aug 17, 2016
bonaire it is very fair if businesses offered L1 charging to its employees for free. A 40 mile recharge (an average commute length) - is about $1 - less than a heavy coffee drinker consumers per day of resources. What isn't happening is the CapEx at businesses who lease their buildings and don't want to "buy" something that is not wrapped into the lease - so they want the landlord to install stuff and that's harder to pull off in some cases or many states. California is starting to legislate requirements in some areas (such as Palo Alto new construction of homes) to install charging capabilities.�
Aug 17, 2016
austinEV I live in an apartment and my only car is a model S. I have a pretty typical situation I think. My employer does offer L2 chargers. There are a lot of volt's and leafs and the model S' are starting to show up. Demand is high on those. My apartment building has 2 L2 spots, not nearly enough. But my neighborhood has 4 pay spots as well, and I live 30 miles from a SC. So I just bounce around, charging when I can, driving to the SC twice a year when bad luck strikes and availability becomes a problem. I thought it would be a bigger pain than it is, but really it has become second nature now.�
Aug 17, 2016
TexasEV Very California-centric thinking. It's not like this anywhere but on the west coast.�
Aug 17, 2016
austinEV Lol. I literally posted the opposite in the previous post. I am Also in Austin and have charging options that Californians would dream of.
BUT, Austin is unusual for sure. I also live downtown where L2 charging options are most concentrated.�
Aug 17, 2016
austinEV One curiosity of note. The plug I use MOST OFTEN is a 110 plug in the corner of my work's parking garage. It is a lousy 2miles/hr of charging but it compensates for that day's commute. Electricity is everywhere.�
Aug 17, 2016
Dynastar For now. If 15% of the cars on the road are electric this will change.�
Aug 18, 2016
bonaire Slow and steady...
15% of new car sales is one thing. Plug-ins are under 1% now in the USA. (appx 160,000 versus 16MM annually in USA)
But 15% of cars on the road is a sustained 15% new-car sales for over 10 years as the fleet ages.
So, get new-car sales of plugins up by a factor of 15 and keep it there for 10 years and we might see 15% of cars on the road.�
Aug 18, 2016
Chopr147 Slow and steady by only a few makers.
I just read an article about how Hyundai is starting up a new luxury brand "Genesis" Like Toyota with Lexus and Honda with Acura etc.....
Talk is about how it will take a good 5 years for name recognition and to start up it's own dealership network. What surprised me was not one word was mentioned about an EV to be produced. Maybe i'm wrong, IDK everything about Hyundai's and they do make the Kia soul hybrid but , not even a thought ? EV's sure appear to be the future to me�
Aug 18, 2016
30seconds Hyundai looks like they are aiming for the bottom half of the 5-series/ E-class/A6/ GS series buyers. Build a really nice car but no need to push performance or technology limits.
BMW, Mercedes and Audi have been pushing to the top end by adding higher performance variants and more tech features. The 528i is still a great car, but not where BMW is trying to take this market.
Along comes Tesla with more performance, a science fiction drivetrain and better for the environment. Plus price range in the upper band.
BMW & Mercedes need to respond to Tesla, Hyundai maybe not (at least for now).�
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