Oct 4, 2012
bbmertz Anyone want to speculate on the last production number to be delivered in 2012? I realize that there are a lot of factors that go into the timing of deliveries -- battery size, other configuration options, delivery location, etc. -- but thought it would be interesting to see everyone's fact-less guesses as to the last delivery in 2012. If nothing else, this will help us non-Sig customers pass the time until our cars arrive...
Personally, I'm hoping for at least 85 kWh configurations with active air suspension up to P5000, since I'm P4909. I received a Nov/Dec estimate on my MVPA, but am not sure it will really arrive this year (although still cautiously optimistic).�
Oct 4, 2012
Zextraterrestrial Wow.. I'm P 1722 and have a 'estimated' December date, which was reiterated last night in email
I guess P2012 will get it by new years (maybe P2013 on Jan 1). that would be around the number I think Elon said he expected.
Is there any $ involved in this? or beer/wine? I'm in for a growler of Six Rivers or a maybe bottle of Prosecco�
Oct 4, 2012
Lyon Well since it's pretty clear that they're not delivering in order do you mean what's the highest number that they will have delivered or what will be the last number?�
Oct 4, 2012
Discoducky highest P# in 2012 i hope is 2842, but realistically it is more like 2000.�
Oct 4, 2012
AndyM please-please-please-please-please be greater than 1988.
[ so much for my intellectual credibility... as if I had any. ]�
Oct 4, 2012
STxTesla My guess is P# 2222.�
Oct 4, 2012
SCW-Greg Why I was just going to say... 1990 (give you 2 to spare).
Love the cred comment btw.�
Oct 4, 2012
contaygious I'll guess somewhere around 2,000 considering I'm told dec�
Oct 4, 2012
timdorr Knowing my luck, P1697 will be last
�
Oct 5, 2012
Tempus yeah - it would be funny to look at the guesses against everyone's sequence number. Me, i'm guessing (hoping?) for #4000 to go in december.
�
Oct 5, 2012
palmer_md That would be too perfect to deliver 2012 as the last in 2012 and 2013 as the first in 2013.�
Oct 5, 2012
mcornwell Guessing only 70% of reservation holders are getting the 85kwh battery and air suspension. Add to that approximately 15% drop out/deferral/transfer to X/upgrade to sig.
Based on that, and assuming 1 week from manufacture to driveway, and an average of 350 cars coming off the assembly line per week for the ~6 weeks of production after the last R rolls off the line, I'd say reservation holder P3535 should get theirs if they ordered with the big battery and the air suspension.
With those guesses, I may get mine by the middle of December?
(Edit: In case someone from Tesla is listening, I'd *really* like to get my car by 12/8, as my folks, who live 3000 miles away, will be passing through LA, and they would love to see the car, otherwise it might be 6 months before they are back on the west coast) :biggrin:�
Oct 5, 2012
Mike_Schlechter as long as it is higher than P457, then I honestly don't care very much...�
Oct 5, 2012
cinergi My guess for highest P in 2012 .. #P2012�
Oct 5, 2012
johnnyS I vote for P4786 (guess what our number is). It matters a lot for tax planning if one gets the car in 2012 or 2013. I assume it will be 2013 for us.�
Oct 5, 2012
ckessel +1 for mcornwell. I think he nailed it about as well as we can with the imperfect information we have.�
Oct 5, 2012
JakeP How about a little love for P4996? I'm still holding out a crazy bit of hope that my estimate is not blatantly over optimistic, just because I am an 85kWh.�
Oct 5, 2012
ckessel Given the production target is something like 3250 by the end of the year, and 1200 are Sigs, I just don't see how P4996 is going to get there. You'd need nearly 3000 P's to drop out in front of you either due to:
1) There's a huge number of deferrals or small battery pack.
2) Outright cancellations (this would be bad if 3000 people cancelled...)�
Oct 5, 2012
joefee My guess is P 2174
Do over Update (due to the continued slow ramp) �. P-1100�
Oct 5, 2012
JakeP Yes, that is why I give it maybe a 10% chance of happening at this point. I would be pleasantly surprised to receive it in 2012, but there would have to be a very small percentage of 85kWh batteries and dropouts, plus a higher than expected ramp-up, to make it happen.
The kicker is, if I don't get this car in 2012, which has various financial benefits, I would like to delay delivery until next Spring or Summer at least. I would prefer this in order to avoid delivery during a NE winter, to get closer to available charging stations along my work travel routes (not necessarily just Superchargers...being able to use an HPC at the Columbus, OH store would be a huge benefit to me, for example). I wonder if Tesla will be at all accommodating in that regard. This eventuality will only occur if Tesla misses what is still my published estimated delivery date, after all.�
Oct 5, 2012
Hank42 How do I tell what Production # I am based on my reservation number? (Yes, I got my MVP - where does it say?)�
Oct 5, 2012
Doug_G I'll go with 3,300.�
Oct 5, 2012
cinergi What's the prize for guessing correctly?
If I vote $1 and everyone else guesses too high, do I win?�
Oct 5, 2012
Lloyd I guess P2420
I'll offer free charging for life in San Luis Obispo. (I already offered that though)
To be clear this is production # (Total number produced) or P number (Number of production models delivered by the end of the year) I assume this is the latter or the # of Production models delivered.�
Oct 5, 2012
bonnie Total of 5001 cars delivered by EOY (Founders, Sig, Production). That would give the shorts a 'tsunami of hurt'.�
Oct 5, 2012
PeterW Yep, I think that is still the target and still achievable.�
Oct 5, 2012
ckessel Didn't they just reduce guidance to something like 3000-3300?
Why would you still think 5000 is the target?�
Oct 5, 2012
bonnie Because it would really mess the shorts up. And because that would be so cool to watch.�
Oct 5, 2012
ckessel Oh certainly. I was going the route of figuring out a reasonable number based on Tesla's guidance. If we're rooting for numbers, then hell, write me down for a big number.�
Oct 5, 2012
PeterW Because of this from Elon:
The 3000-3300 is worst case projections and from what Elon says (above) 4000+ is probably where they are at so I think they will still try for 5000 and can get there if things go well.�
Oct 5, 2012
bonnie And also because I believe it is possible. I do believe that's a reasonable number. (It was just more fun to say it would mess up the shorts.)�
Oct 5, 2012
AndyM OK, my turn to add a thoughtful response.
1200 Signatures built, including Founders.
Then, 439 Roadster reservations, of which maybe 20% will cancel, defer, or select 40 kWh batteries. That means about 350 cars built.
1200 + 350 = 1550. So, my estimate of the number of cars built before the P series gets rolling is 1550 cars.
The guidance given was 3225 cars built, and that's a nice low estimate for financial conservatives
(Bonnie, I hope those shorts take it in the... shorts).
3225 - 1550 = 1675. 1675 cars to deliver to P reservation holders. Let's assume 75% of those don't defer, so 1675 is 75% of... 2233.
That's my guess: Whoever owns P2233 will be the last one delivered in 2012.
On the optimistic side, let's say they keep the 5000 goal... P4600 would get their car in 2012.�
Oct 5, 2012
Robert.Boston Go to your Garage and, at the bottom left under the words "Model S", you should see a number preceded by a pound sign. That's your Production number.�
Oct 5, 2012
ahimberg There's always a mix in their numbers of deliveries vs bodies built. I think they'll be around 5000 built, but probably closer to 4000 delivered.
Actual delivery my guess is something like P3500
(and yeah my guess is slanted so I get mine�
Oct 6, 2012
Todd Burch Andy, we've heard consistently from Tesla that the numbering doesn't reset after the Rs. The first slot after R439 would be P440. (I think there are lower numbered Ps than 439....but there aren't equivalent R numbers). For instance, the sequence would go (for example) R1, P2, P3, R4, R5, P6, etc. So you could bump your number up some.�
Oct 6, 2012
jkirkebo Your guess is very much in line with the poll results here:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/poll.php?pollid=122&do=showresults�
Oct 6, 2012
Schlermie P3000�
Oct 6, 2012
dsm363 I'll guess P3,198.�
Oct 6, 2012
bbmertz I'm enjoying seeing everyone's guesses. Coincidentally, they all seem to be about 1-2 numbers higher than each poster's production number (myself included). :smile:
For those of you who prefer to be more scientific when preparing your estimate, note that R378 was just quoted a delivery window of 11/2-11/16. Not looking good for me to get 4909 by 12/31, despite my Nov/Dec MVPA estimate. Hope the federal tax credit is still offered in 2013!�
Oct 8, 2012
DavidM The key is "To Be Delivered".
I think there will be a few hundred cars waiting to be delivered on 12/31/12 (in various locations around the US).
However, I suspect that anyone living in California within a day's drive of the factory will opt to pick up their car at the factory the last week of the year, in order to get the $7,500 tax break for the 2012 tax year (assuming they qualify).
So I think we could go as high as P3500 for someone picking up at the factory. That's skipping a lot of undelivered cars.
I'm fearing that my car (P2624) will be one of those 300 or so cars sitting on a truck, waiting to be delivered to me in Florida on 12/31/12.�
Oct 8, 2012
kjwcanary I'm gonna go with my car being the last one to be delivered this year - P2159. As it is the last car, I assume Elon will deliver it himself, with a magnum of champagne, and some inspirational music in the background. Steven Spielberg will be filming everything, to produce the 'Victory of the Electric Car' movie, which will finally convince everybody that ICE cars are inherently inferior to electric cars..........and then I'll wake up.�
Oct 8, 2012
Zextraterrestrial whoa there, no waking up!
The party will be huge- New Years at the Factory, Elon w/ magnum of champagne - me w/a 10L of Cab and showgirls/boys in the factory dancing ... and the convincing of the ICE lovers, hmmm, tough. We'll just stick to the best party ever + 2159 awesome cars out the doors�
Oct 8, 2012
Brian H Well, plus the Sigs, SSLs, etc., but minus the non-85s delayed beyond Jan. 1.�
Oct 9, 2012
jeffhre Well, FWIW I think it will be exactly like that. Well, perhaps without the magnum. And the movie. And Spielberg. And Elon Musk. And um, maybe not the party.
�
Oct 9, 2012
Iz P3000 + all sigs.
I am P1431 and getting the 60 kWh, which are not expected to be in production until November.�
Oct 11, 2012
TheAustin As long as it's over 2,009, then we're cool and the gang. Incidentally...If I'm P2,009, what aggregate number Model S am I? Translation: How many Model S's will have been produced prior to the Production cars? Based on the 1,200-1,300 Sigs/Special Sigs, etc., that seems to put me at around an aggregate #3,300-3,400...And, considering the 3,500 estimates (even worst case), I'm not going to lie, that has me a little nervous :/�
Oct 11, 2012
Babylonfive Wait, so no 60KWH models have been shipped at all, right?�
Oct 11, 2012
ElSupreme Right. Only signatures (all of which have 85kWh packs) have been delivered to date.�
Oct 11, 2012
P4168 I'm P #4168, Tesla advised expect delivery between mid Dec 12 and Mid Feb 13.
Ok they take their time and build it right but the wait is .....well, you know!�
Oct 11, 2012
bbmertz What's your configuration? Guess my MVPA estimate of Nov/Dec 2012 for P4909 is more likely to be Feb/Mar 2013. I agree that it is worth the extra time to ensure a high-quality build, but am concerned about waiting a full year for the 2013 tax credit. I'm also surprised that Tesla has recently provided MVPA estimates of Jan-Mar 2013 to reservations in the 6000s+, which seems very unrealistic.�
Oct 11, 2012
ElSupreme They should produces 5000+ cars between Jan 1 and Mar 31 2013. I don't see how getting #6000 in March is such a stretch.�
Oct 16, 2012
tdubb My reservation number is 3072 and the MVPA I signed said delivery in Nov-Dec of 2012. Every time I have spoken to a Tesla rep they asked me what my reservation number was and almost without fail they would tell me unsolicited that I would "definitely" be getting my car by the end of the year. With the latest signature deliveries at ~650 in mid October I struggle to think that they will be able to ramp up to meet 3,000 cars produced by EOY 2012 much less delivered. While I am concerned about the tax credit in 2013 more importantly I am just ready to stop going to the gas station to fill up! I am betting we will see 2500 tops by the EOY....�
Oct 16, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla Welcome to TMC, tdubb! Yes, estimates from (most) Tesla reps haven't been of too much value as they are seemingly as much in the dark as we customers are w.r.t. production status and delays.
Yes, 3,072 seems like a real long shot for 2012 at this point. I'm not too confident about my 1,620 being done either and I probably have only about a 1,000 cars ahead of me (accommodating for cancellations, upgrades, deferrals etc.) after the Signatures.�
Oct 16, 2012
David-El I'm hoping they make it to, at least, P3078. Gee, I wonder what my number is...�
Oct 18, 2012
DouglasR I think most of these guesses are wildly optimistic. Consider:
1. GB has referred to the "re-estimation" of cars by the end of 2012 as 2,500-3,000, not 3,000-3,500. Don't know whether that's produced or delivered.
2. With the shift in delivery windows, it looks like the Sigs will be getting delivered at least through the end of November.
3. While there is no consensus as to the sequencing/numbering of the Rs, it is quite likely that 400-500 Rs will be produced before the Ps get produced.
4. There is some possibility that up to 200 Canadian SSLs and Sigs will be produced before the Ps get produced.
5. Ramping up to 400/week by year end probably means around 1400 cars in December.
On the other side of the equation, the predicted highest production number will be increased by cancellations and deferrals, and by the assumption that only the 85kwh cars will be delivered in 2012.
Taking all this into account, I will be surprised if the highest production number delivered in 2012 exceeds #1,000. Of course, it is just a coincidence that my number is 983.�
Oct 18, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla Douglas, of all the assumptions, I doubt if Tesla will get to 5) in particular for atleast 3-4 months! Their supply chain seems to have broken down too quickly and I'm not sure if the factory's really "humming" otherwise. My conservative estimate now is barely 500 GP cars in 2012 after the Sigs (US and CAD) and Rs are done - that's stuck at 100-ish cars a week. We may even hear something to that effect in the November 5th earnings call.
Sorry, am really in a pessimistic mood now and am guessing that I'll have to wait till Jan/Feb... Worried about my TSLA investment too on top of that.�
Oct 18, 2012
Kipernicus Right there with you GG. My prediction is that US Sigs will be done with production by early Nov but deliveries won't be done till end of Nov. Then they'll produce the Rs and CAN sigs and maybe a few hundred P's in Dec, not exceeding USP500.
As others have mentioned I'm also worried about the production of 60kWh packs, and the fact that we haven't even seen an official EPA rating yet or any indication that they've built and tested a car with the 60 (or 40). I think it will be Feb for us :crying:�
Oct 18, 2012
contaygious No more than 500 Ps you think? WOW I thought P was before can sig? Not the case anymore!? Dang I'm out late DEC so I won't even get my P then.�
Oct 18, 2012
timdorr They're not shutting down production while delivering the Sigs. Production on GP #1 will start right behind Sig #1000. Should even be the same day. They don't have the financial luxury of slowing down or stopping. They're running 6 day work weeks for a reason!�
Oct 18, 2012
Grendal They will make the Canadian Sigs and possibly the European Sigs before starting on the GP's. I can easily see Tesla making as many 85 kWh S's as they can get away with before creating the 60's and 40 kWh pack cars in the GP series.�
Oct 18, 2012
stinnett_P813
That matches what I was told a couple days ago. I am P813 and was told based on the delays and current ramp I might get mine around mid January. But that there was a chance still to get it in December.�
Oct 18, 2012
Robert.Boston I will reiterate, in case anyone from Tesla is reading this, that it's very disruptive to our tax planning to be told explicitly that my Model S will surely be delivered by Dec. 31, and then to have that not come true. May I send the tax underpayment penalty bill to you, GeorgeB?�
Oct 18, 2012
joefee Do over Update (due to the continued slow ramp) �. P-1100�
Oct 19, 2012
bmek Total Production and Total Customer Deliveries
Based on guidance in September, and production and VINs to date, I predict total production of Model S in 2012 to be at least 2,743 vehicles. Of those, I estimate 34 vehicles for engineering and marketing, and at least 52 vehicles in finished inventory, with total customer deliveries of 2,657 vehicles. Any increase in production over 2,743 vehicles would remain in ending inventory.
This estimate is based on the factory achieving a production run rate of 400 vehicles per week by Saturday, December 22, which meets their production rate milestone of 20,000 vehicles per year. If they achieve that milestone, I believe the factory will shut down for the last week in December and give the workers a much needed break.
If the factory does not meet the 400 vehicles/week production rate then I believe they will work the final week in December.
The completion and customer delivery teams will work absolutely flat out through the holidays (including Thanksgiving and through Christmas to New Year's Eve) delivering a total of 400 vehicles in the last week, demonstrating that they can deliver at the required rate. Their delivery job will, in fact, be made easier by the year end holidays and the fact that customers will accept all kinds of deliveries that week so customers can realize the tax credits in 2012. (Also, I have a theory on a 'delivery party' that could happen in Las Vegas (or Reno) that could help meet the total delivery target in Q4 of 2,500 vehicles (more on that later)).
This scenario would minimize the year end inventory (always nice for financial statement purposes), and meet the production rates and customer delivery goals.
I'm not predicting what the final reservation sequence numbers will be, including Canadian Signatures and Rs/Ps, as those metrics, although important to the reservation holders, are not important to the financial community. I do believe that TSLA and Elon will ensure there is appropriate 'recompense' to the Sigs, Canadian Sigs and Roadster owners in the future as they (TSLA and Elon) know that customer loyalty is invaluable for future sales.
(Winter storms and road conditions are a huge risk to the delivery numbers.)�
Oct 19, 2012
Zextraterrestrial I'm getting mine for Christmas so I think you should be fine.�
Nov 1, 2012
sublimaze1 My Product Specialist (okay, he wasn't my original one, but I stole him) told me just now on the phone that they have hit their maximum production number for this week. Take that with the grain/kilo/metricton of salt you will ....�
Nov 1, 2012
efusco I don't understand what that means? That they matched their previous high production number for a week already this week?�
Nov 1, 2012
ElSupreme I think it means they are producing at 400/week line rate (20,000 a year line rate). Either that or they are running at line maximum rate which would probably be roughly double that line rate. I am guessing they are producing 400 cars/ week this week if that statement is true.
And the verbiage in that note seems to indicate they are running full hours at that rate also. Sounds like really good news for all you sub 2,000 res numbers!�
Nov 1, 2012
ckessel It could also mean they hit that week's rampup target (i.e. no problem ramping up this week), something much less than 400/week.�
Nov 1, 2012
sublimaze1 That's what I would surmise ... I will say that he quoted "I can't give you a number, but you can work backwards" - FWIW ....�
Nov 2, 2012
Beavis US Sig production will not be completed in early November. Mine will enter production "soon" so I seriously doubt that it will be completed before the middle of the month. There are US Sig's with delivery windows extending into December based on the tracking spreadsheet.�
Nov 5, 2012
ckessel Based on the call this morning, it sounds like they'll ship ~3000 cars in Q4.
I'm going to do a lot of rounding here, but ~770 are US Sigs, 200 might be Canadian Sigs, leaving around 2000 for R and P reservations. The Q3 info said they gained 2900 reservations, but the net was only 1700, so about 1200 cancellations. It sounded like the cancellations were weighted towards older reservations. We've had folks through around P7000 contacted I think, so say 800 cancellations through the R500 & P3500 spots for a nice round 20% cancellation rate in the "earlier" reservation holders. Let's also say 30% of the folks don't want the 85kwh battery (a number pulled from thin air).
So, working backwards from the 2000 non-Sig deliveries we can extrapolate back out to the last P code shipped this year: 2000 / .8 / .7 = 3571 - R500 = P3071.
Obviously there's a ton of rounding and assumptions in there, but it doesn't seem too unreasonable to think folks around P3000 have a shot at a car this year.�
Nov 5, 2012
Babylonfive Wasn't the 3000 number a 'built this year' and not a 'delivered this year' number?�
Nov 5, 2012
timdorr Straight from Tesla this morning:
They have delivered about 600 in October and are pushing out 200 per week, up to 400 per week by the end of the month. So, that definitely means *at least* 2500 deliveries this quarter.�
Nov 5, 2012
DavidM I had previously given up hope that my P2624 with the 85KWh battery would come in time for my birthday at year end. But now, all of a sudden, it's clearly possible. Just don't know about the shipping time to Florida, and down time for 2 holidays, etc. etc.�
Nov 5, 2012
teslasguy Hopefully I'm getting my new Blue Performance sleigh for Christmas as well!
Dashing through the snow
In an 85kw Blue sleigh,
Over the streets we go,
Laughing all the way!
I'm P1117. :smile:�
Nov 5, 2012
phx182flyer But we don't get snow here in Phoenix...�
Nov 6, 2012
teslasguy Hey, I used to live in Phoenix (ok, Glendale) and I recall snow on the ground one winter.
Granted it's been a lot of years and it wasn't a lot, but the ground was definitely snow covered.
:wink:�
Dec 7, 2012
mnx Thought I'd bring this thread back to life. You're all wrong.
Plus there's this as well:
Model S December Production email�
Dec 7, 2012
Doug_G Apparently the thread needs to be renamed. We should be guessing how many cars Tesla reports in their financial results as having being shipped in 2012.�
Dec 7, 2012
Zextraterrestrial ....and I had my X-mas on December 1st this year!!!
Now I don't ever need another present :love:
I think they need more delivery trucks based on the volume of cars that are ready to go
Or a delivery 'sleigh'�
Dec 7, 2012
Alfafoxtrot1 Thanks for reviving this thread - I've been wondering about this too. I suspect particularly at year end there's going to be a huge gap between cars produced and cars delivered. Only a few of us are really focused on cars delivered. For present purposes, TM and the market are probably mostly concerned with cars produced. Brings a certain 80s flick to mind: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvW_PDkElho�
Dec 7, 2012
gregincal I'm not sure that's correct. Tesla only receives money when they deliver cars, not when then produce them. So cars delivered is what matters from a financial standpoint, and all the goals that Tesla has stated have all been in terms of cars delivered.
Certainly the sequence numbers are much more out of order than anyone predicted (I felt that after the sigs people were silly expecting things to go in strict sequence, but not even I could have guessed them reaching up towards seq # 9000 as a possible 2012 delivery). Probably the most interesting guess would be the highest VIN to be delivered in 2012, since it's fairly close to cars produced. Currently we have max delivered VIN of 1791. Remember that there are about 150 (guessing?) canadian sigs waiting around with VINs starting at 2000. I'm assuming US VINs will just skip over those numbers when they reach them. I'll guess that we might see VIN 3300 delivered in 2012 (although there will be VINs lower than that which will still be in the pipeline).�
Dec 7, 2012
ahimberg Is that completely true? all these TX and similar locations with dealer laws, they take payment to do the transaction in CA will allow some sales to be counted without them making it all the way to delivery.. so tesla's December focus is things they can deliver on the west cost, or to states where they just to get payment and be ready to put it on a truck...�
Dec 7, 2012
Robert.Boston Because of MA laws, I wired funds to Tesla early. My DS said that my Model S was technically considered "delivered" because the title changed hands (before the car was put on a car carrier in Fremont).�
Dec 7, 2012
jerry33 Doesn't that mean that you're responsible for any carrier damage?�
Dec 7, 2012
Robert.Boston I presume that the carrier is.�
Dec 8, 2012
jerry33 Yes, but the real question is who's responsibility is it to go after the carrier? Filing a claim can be a big hassle. Also making sure that there is no damage. This isn't a problem if there is a DS or the car first goes to a service centre and then gets delivered, but in Texas there's nothing but you and the carrier.�
Dec 8, 2012
Brian H Hah. Another instance of the Law of Unintended (Perverse) Consequences, in the name of consumer protection!!�
Jan 2, 2013
palmer_md And the winner is?�
Jan 2, 2013
mcornwell I think most guesses were based on P #, not VIN #. Since Tesla was giving priority to California cars, and using other factors to get as many cars as they could out the door, I don't think anyone guessed that there would be a few P10,000 cars delivered.�
Jan 2, 2013
palmer_md Well, if the reservation numbers and vin numbers are too confusing then how many cars were delivered by the end of the year? How many came off the end of the line? Since this is what people were really discussing anyway with the assumption that they would build them in reservation order...obviously not realistic, but it is probably what most were thinking.�
Jan 2, 2013
gregincal We won't know the answer to that question until earnings are reported in a month.�
Jan 2, 2013
johnnyS Many months ago I posted that the last P number to be delivered would be 4786 (mine) and we all chuckled. We received our car December 22 and were not even close to last--who would of thought that would happen. Of course I added options that originally thought I would skip. I am happy with our configuration and love the car.�
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