May 3, 2013
Jonathan Hewitt Posts regarding the 2013 Q1 Earnings Report scheduled to occur next week are popping up in what seems to be every thread recently. Let's use this thread for 2013 Q1 earnings report related posts.
For now it will be speculation in regards to possible numbers released, announcements made, etc.
After the conference call next week a recap can be posted here of what was put out along with discussion of what it all means!�
May 3, 2013
ShortSlaver Alright, I'll bite.
I believe the most important thing is to curb your enthusiasm.
The market is an unpredictable place and no one can know what will happen regardless of results. It is known a profitable quarter has happened and it would be agreed the market has priced this accordingly the last month or so with dramatic rises in TSLA value.
But what makes TSLA tricky is that it's hard to know just what that value is perceived to be. $.01 a share? $.06...$0.10? Nobody really knows. So even if it blows the lid off what was expected and adjusted, we don't know what the value is. It could beat projections handily and not really move because it wasn't enough, for instance.
I guess my feelings are don't expect a dramatic short squeeze and don't expect a massive bump. I remember 10 years ago when AAPL was beating everything and still fell a bit after the calls. They fell because they had everything against them, enough believers propping it up but enough quick buck takes hoping for some godly number and getting out when it was *just* better than expected. The joke was always AAPL beat estimates but still fell 2% - sell AAPL before earnings calls and buy back the next day. This seriously worked for quite awhile! Of course, over time, AAPL went to insane levels but there wasn't necessarily a divine jump. Especially since there were plenty invested expecting insane jumps and massive short term gains. But the stock did its thing and gained over time.
I've had some good luck with this stock and have ben able to turn options into actual stock which makes me happy - free stock it feels like!. But I wouldn't bank on a massive leap even if things turn out better than expected. Plenty of people are betting on that (I have May options too) and there isn't a single person betting on negative EPS right now obviously. If TSLA comes out at a far better EPS and guidance then there might be a crazy few days. But I imagine it will be a healthy number with nice guidance and something the shares prove their mid-50's level and possibly enthusiasm kicks it somewhat higher. But I wouldn't plan for a Tsunami of Pain. I think a lot of that is priced in and that's good. But I'd hold onto my shares and let it grow over the coming years.
I can't possibly know anything but I do feel like it's really hard to know how the market will react to various EPS and guidance numbers. How high is high? Where will it go? Nothing is guaranteed and anything could happen.
Adding:
Q1 Cars delivered: ~4950 cars
Q1 Revenue: ~$535,000,000
Q1 GAAP EPS: ~$.125
2013 guidance: ~23,500 cars�
May 3, 2013
anticitizen13.7 Unpredictability in the short term is almost a given. I can see a modest quarterly profit report causing the stock to fall a little bit. I can also see the price going up if media hype on the day after the earnings report gets more retail investors interested in the stock, causing a flood of purchase orders.
The numbers I'll be looking at will be Cars delivered and Worldwide orders placed. A consistent flow of orders for the Model S will bode well for the future.�
May 3, 2013
ShortSlaver I agree with you but the one thing is what does "modest" mean? That's the trick here - I just don't have a clue. So a number can come in and there's just a lot of gray area open for interpretation. TSLA comes in at $.20 with 5200 cars sold and 25,000 expected this year at 25% margins, yeah it's about to fly off the charts. But there's much more possibility for uncertainty. And I just don't even know what "modest" or "pretty good" means.
I should add, what I've posted on my first post would probably be considered more than modest and in fact amazingly good.�
May 3, 2013
jeffhre Wouldn't expect too much from most earnings announcements. Buy on the rumor, sell on the news, as the saying goes. Tesla seems to have such skeptical depths of naysayers though. Folks who resolutely insist that any possibility of profit has been manufactured from potential or actual accounting shenanigans. So maybe the actual news could be such a shock, that there is a pop! (see how I hedged it there!)�
May 4, 2013
Jonathan Hewitt I think this is quite a possibility. To take what you said a little further, this SA article talks about what effect neutral news OR good news will have on the share price:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1402621-tesla-the-high-cost-of-shorting-increases-chances-of-short-covering?source=yahoo
Spoiler alert: he believes that neutral news will cause a steady rise in the stock price over the next few months and that any good news will cause a short squeeze. I'm assuming he didn't talk about bad news because we all know it would almost assuredly cause the stock to drop. I'm not sure what to think at this point but am hoping for the best.�
May 4, 2013
kenliles I'm in general agreement with ShortSlaver above. A large amount has been built into the stock already, so be a little cautious while staying long.�
May 4, 2013
anticitizen13.7 I actually don't have any idea either.
I think "modest" will be more a reflection on the subjective reaction of investors: if market participants see the earnings report and think "oh, that's OK, no big deal", I think that would reflect "modest" earnings. On the other hand, if general sentiment is "WTFOMG how did they make that much money?!?!!" I would say that would reflect excellent earnings.�
May 5, 2013
nygiants242 Just to confirm.. Is the release tomorrow and the conference call on the 8th? That is what Google Finance is saying right now:
May 6, 2013
Q1 2013 TESLA MOTORS INC Earnings Release
May 8, 2013
Q1 2013 TESLA MOTORS INC Earnings Conference Call - 5:30PM EDT
I would imagine it is all on one day though, meaning the 8th. No? Thanks for clarifying! Looking forward to the numbers for sure.�
May 5, 2013
Norbert Tesla Motors Announces Date for First Quarter 2013 Financial Results (NASDAQ:TSLA)
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May 5, 2013
nygiants242 Thought so. Thanks Norbert!�
May 8, 2013
gg_got_a_tesla Tick tock... where is it?!!
Nothing on here yet: Tesla - Press Releases�
May 8, 2013
Jonathan Hewitt Patience...All good things come with time!Let's hope this is a good thing, haha.
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May 8, 2013
hershey101 T minus one hour and 17 minutes
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Seems like buyers are still there pushing the stock up after hours.�
May 8, 2013
mulder1231 Q1 Shareholder letter is up...
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May 8, 2013
DJ Frustration Huge!!!! $0.12 EPS $562 Million in Revenue!!! Records!!!!!�
May 8, 2013
Citizen-T Link to letter: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2393657768x0x661989/ee71d11b-3563-489c-9471-9319fd963626/Q1%2013%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf�
May 8, 2013
fluxemag I thought it was going to pop after reading the numbers. Aftermarket trading was above $61 for a moment, but back down to $58 now, being pushed around 50 cents at a time by one lots. Global demand expected to exceed 30k per year! Really an awesome quarter all around, great guidance. Only thing that might be keeping the stock down is the last paragraph about cap ex.�
May 8, 2013
ShortSlaver Over 60 now, even on high volume AH won't compare to tomorrow...�
May 8, 2013
fluxemag Maybe people are just slow readers lol.
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The letter alleviated all of my fears of diminishing demand for the car. Blow out numbers too.�
May 8, 2013
Citizen-T Party at my house.�
May 8, 2013
carrerascott Wow. Over $64. I added 1000sh at 55.85 at 3:58pm.�
May 8, 2013
Chris Love it. Free beer at my place�
May 8, 2013
Jonathan Hewitt Nice call! I thought about it but only got as far as logging into my brokerage account.�
May 8, 2013
avatar This might hit $80 just in after hours... I joke not compadres...�
May 8, 2013
carrerascott I kinda thought doing it would doom us all. Glad it didn't!�
May 8, 2013
Stoneymonster Folks, let's not get too excited until John Peterson has time to interpret this for us.�
May 8, 2013
mitch672 Ok, so now we must be strong - NO ONE SELL (yeah, lets see if that works), make them sweat it out�
May 8, 2013
fluxemag I didn't have the strength to buy more, had the order box open though...that counts for something! Just not money.
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I'm sure he's lying in the shower weeping.�
May 8, 2013
gg_got_a_tesla Great minds... couldn't resist throwing "house money" (from profit-taking a couple of days ago) back in at 56.62 :biggrin:
Rock on, Tesla!�
May 8, 2013
NuclearPowered I'm glad I rolled the dice and bought those may 70s for .65c just before the close. LOL�
May 8, 2013
aznt1217 so do you guys hear that? It's the squeals coming from the squeezeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee�
May 8, 2013
jeffro01 Awesome numbers, now I don't feel so squeamish for going all in on Tesla this afternoon...
Jeff�
May 8, 2013
gregincal Well, it is true that a huge amount of revenue came from ZEV credits. Much more than Petersen calculated, but right in line with CapOp's predictions (he predicted a minimum of $57 million and the total was $68 million).�
May 8, 2013
raymond Made me LOL.�
May 8, 2013
Stoneymonster True, but as they state in the letter, they are not planning on them going forward, the gross margins don't depend on them, so why does it matter? They are gravy, but when they go away it will not materially affect the business.�
May 8, 2013
raymond $68 million ~= 12% of revenues. A 17% gross margin is nice, but do I understand that 12% is from ZEV credits so the real margin is 5%? If so, it's a long way up to 25%!
Could somebody tell me that I'm wrong (please)?�
May 8, 2013
Cosmacelf As I thought, Tesla needed to get rid of that DOE loan warrant overhang to allow them to get to GAAP profitability. Without that non-cash addition to their revenue, they would have had a $5M loss in Q1. And indeed, they are projecting a loss in Q2. Still, overall, nice results. The most important thing is that they guided car paid deliveries slightly more positive than before, so they must feel good about their sales pipeline. Personally, I don't know how they can project solid sales going forward as they have very little history to go by. But hey, Elon's smarter than I am, so there.�
May 8, 2013
DonPedro I think this is quite significant: "Importantly, we are seeing orders in a particular region increase proportionate to the number of deliveries, which means that customers are selling other customers on the car."�
May 8, 2013
ShortSlaver Not so shabby if I do say so myself.�
May 8, 2013
Discoducky Very happy right now
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May 8, 2013
ShortSlaver Musk: no plans for another offering.
Share over $68.00 in after hours!�
May 8, 2013
gregincal ???? The DOE loan warrant was 10.8 million, and the GAAP profit was 11.2 million. They specifically have a line item showing that they had 556 thousand profit not counting the warrant reversal.�
May 8, 2013
Jeeps17 Just saw $72.18 in after-hours trading :scared:
If this sticks in the morning, I think we have ourselves a squeeze, gentlemen (and women) !�
May 8, 2013
DonPedro I think they are killing it in the call. Every answer is making me more bullish.�
May 8, 2013
ShortSlaver It's going to be worse in the morning. Much worse. This is going to be painful for shorts - more than it has already.
I will not be shocked if there is a squeeze into the $100.00 range by Friday.�
May 8, 2013
Jeeps17 The question is... what to do then ?
I am long TSLA, but I am sure many will take profit (nothing bad about it!).�
May 8, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Actually, carrying the model to its conclusion, it hit it on the nose.
As I said in the original post, the $57 excluded a number of credits, and with those same exclusions it prediction $33m in Q4 with $40m actual. Using the same ratio on $57m gets you to $68m.
Frankly, its not really that accurate. But I thought it was hilarious how close it came.�
May 8, 2013
mitch672 Be strong, chant "I will not sell even a portion of my shares until 3 digits are achieved"�
May 8, 2013
CapitalistOppressor They don't go away permanently. The market is likely (but not necessarily) going to be saturated this year. Next year the same requirements are in effect, and then they are multiplied by 4 in 2015-2017. ZEV credits aren't going away any time soon.
And GHG and CAFE will be steady income regardless. GHG was ~25% of the total, and CAFE likely was a bit less. My current research on CAFE (which I don't know much about) indicates that it likely matches the GHG credits in long term revenue because MPG has a direct relationship to greenhouse gasses, and they are both set up under the same rule. So if the social cost is $23/Mg for GHG, then it's likely the same when you translate it into MPG. If both have the same value, and if my model is correct, then GHG and CAFE credits were worth ~50% of the regulatory credit revenue this quarter, and that revenue likely will continue.�
May 8, 2013
electrified89 Ok, i'm a bit of a novice when it comes to these types of things, but i do own a fair bit of TSLA... so could someone just tell me if we should expect it to continue climbing tomorrow, or if it'll likely settle down or drop a bit from todays after-hours? it just seems like WAY to fast of a jump to maintain throughout a day of trading (but like i said, i don't know much about it).
of course... one can never be sure, but what's the typical outcome from something like this?�
May 8, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Yes, it was an awesome call, to go with a great letter.
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I'm not really sure what to expect tomorrow. If it keeps going up from $70 I'll probably retire.�
May 8, 2013
gregincal I just am so grateful that with a cash flow positive quarter we should never have to read again about how Tesla is "burning through cash."�
May 8, 2013
ckessel Indeed, and I liked that Elon was talking about reducing the deposit since "they didn't need the cash".�
May 8, 2013
DonPedro Nobody can tell you what is going to happen - if anyone could it would be the same as being able to print money. Even the best investors are nowhere near that level.
The best someone can do for you is to tell you how to trade depending on your beliefs and needs. Do you believe that Tesla has a strong chance be a great company in the long term and go all the way to become a leading force in the automotive market? Then you would be ill advised to sell your shares just because you are unsure of how they are going to trade the next couple of days.
Do you need the money soon, or just not interested in Tesla long term? Then you have to try to time your sales. Almost impossible to hit the peak. On approach can be to sell a part to lock in some profits and stay on for the ride with the rest to see how things develop. Really - short term trading/timing is really hard. Think about whether you think the next announcements will move the stock further (supercharger announcement and "under the nose" announcement coming up). Also, there could be some very strong upward movement if there is a short squeeze. You might keep some or all shares for that, and then try to sell going up or going down on that ride (again, you will not hit the peak, almost nobody does).
You might also keep this generic advice in mind: If you do not have a good story about why you are in a stock, you should probably get out of it.
Personally, I have a bedrock of shares that I've invested long term, and then a much smaller amount that I trade to take advantage of any insight I think I have. I am grossly overweight in the stock right now, and will take a tiny bit of profit (5% of my position or thereabouts). Most of the shares I am keeping for the next 5-10 years.�
May 8, 2013
brianstorms "...where the first of the three digits is a number higher than 1."�
May 8, 2013
raymond Nobody knows. But we do know that there are ~30.000.000 shorts that just lost $15/share, so that's roughly US$0.5B down the drain for the shorts. And some of these shorts will be forced to sell and that certainly won't drive the price down.
My guess: open at $70, up to $75 in early hours, close at $65. With such specific numbers you can be certain I'm wrong.�
May 8, 2013
electrified89 Thank you very much for the detailed response. I am DEFINITELY in long term (hell, just ordered a car so i hope they'll be around!). I don't intend to sell any, i was more just curious about what we may be able to expect from something like this.
Thanks again!�
May 8, 2013
avatar
Lol - are you kidding? close at $65? With 30MM shorts? We are looking at $100+ a share by Friday.�
May 8, 2013
DonPedro 1,7 million shares have just been sold by people disagreeing with you. These kind of volumes are not your grandma or a few retail investors. These people aren't kidding.
On the other hand, 1,7 million shares have been bought by people who think $65-73 are looking like a good deal. Time will show who is right...�
May 8, 2013
ShortSlaver There's likely more than 30m after the last couple days. But I agree, I'm setting my sights far higher than $65 or whatever. The volume tonight was largest in the big numbers. Expect a lot of margin calls and a big rise in prices tomorrow and Friday.�
May 8, 2013
richkae Somebody have a transcript of the call?�
May 8, 2013
Todd Burch http://ir.teslamotors.com�
May 8, 2013
Norbert I'm a bit unclear about one thing: After-hours share price went below $70 to $68.3 now, about the time (perhaps a coincidence) when Cory Johnson claimed on Bloomberg that without the warrant reversal, Tesla would not have turned a profit. However the shareholder letter seems to explicitly claim that this is one of the differences between GAAP and non-GAAP accounting, and that Tesla turned a profit by both methods of accounting.
(In any case, the important thing is that demand figures are increasing as well as margins).�
May 8, 2013
ShortSlaver I wouldn't worry. The volume dropped off after around $70, so it's just stragglers. Tomorrow will be really good most likely.�
May 8, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Anyone who has an idea about the high revenue numbers pls post in them in the $562m/WTF thread under investor discussions. After re-reading the letter and stewing for a bit I am starting to think Tesla is sandbagging on its credit revenue by limiting discussion to ZEV credits. No mention of GHG or CAFE, and the description and context they use for the "credits" seems only to apply to the California ZEV program.
If so, then that means $68m in ZEV credits + some additional unknown amount for GHG and CAFE credits. My thesis is that the "unknown" amount is buried in the inflated revenue numbers. But I need alternate explanations for the increased revenue, thus the WTF?? thread.�
May 8, 2013
anticitizen13.7 Wow, this is great news:biggrin:
My congratulations to Elon Musk and all members of the Tesla team!!!�
May 8, 2013
NuclearPowered Q1 non-GAAP net income was $15 million, and $11.2 million on a GAAP basis. Non-GAAP basic EPS was $0.13 and $0.10 on a GAAP basis, using 114.7 million weighted shares outstanding. On a fully diluted basis, non-GAAP EPS was $0.12. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.00, as net income has been adjusted to exclude the one-time non-cash gain of $10.7 million from the elimination of our Department of Energy (DoE) warrant liability as required under GAAP.
So on GAAP basis they are profitable by (11.2M - 10.7M). (Unless that second sentence means they have included the warrant liability in the Net income values. It is unclear.) Either way, Cory Johnson is an idiot.�
May 8, 2013
Norbert As far as I can tell, the most negative combination still results in an EPS of $0.0. It seems that in order to arrive at a negative number, Cory Johnson had to subtract a number that also includes the "favorable foreign currency exchange impact". But that's like saying "if the weather had been worse, things would have been been worse". Maybe, but they weren't.�
May 8, 2013
Cosmacelf You're right, my mistake. They would have been slightly GAAP profitable even without the DOE warrant recapture (but Elon wouldn't have been able to tweet about it partway through the quarter since it would have been close). And the warrant recapture doesn't factor into non-GAAP profitability, so profitable either way.
The most significant things in the Q&A (other than the great Q1 numbers) relates to future sales and future margin improvement. Elon sounded pretty blas� about sales. In fact he said that they really aren't focused on sales. Instead they want to get the margins improved and make sure service is working great first before focusing on sales. Great sentiment, but not one usually hears from a CEO. He slightly increased sales guidance to 21,000 units sold this year, which sounded to me like a conservative number. On the margin side, he sounded pretty confident of hitting 25% margins with ZERO ZEV credits by the 4th quarter. So, if you believe Elon, and at this point, why wouldn't you, the future looks very bright indeed. The other sales related thing he said (why didn't anyone ask what their marketing and sales strategy was?) was that they were going to continue to just rely on their stores as a way of making sales (and of course on us car owners gushing about it). But their existing stores pull in about a million people a year. That's nice! He also expects the pseudo leasing program to pull in more sales.�
May 8, 2013
ShortSlaver Total sandbagging and a brilliant move. He gives a nice guidance number but really, 21,000 will easily be beat. They now have a nice number they can beat in the coming quarters. Love it.�
May 8, 2013
ggr You mean "forced to buy", but I know what you mean, so that's OK. Or "forced to exit their position" might be even a better way to put it.�
May 8, 2013
ShortSlaver There will be buyers.�
May 8, 2013
ccorda These predictions at US/International mix look right if you go by today's numbers:
Officially Official: Tesla Is Top Selling EV Maker In The US, Increases Sales Estimate For 2013
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May 9, 2013
NigelM Welcome to TMC!�
May 9, 2013
DonPedro Interesting, but this flies in the face of other guidance given by Tesla. They have projected 30k global demand per year and 15k in the US, i.e. 50% (unless one reads "global" as "non-US", which is a stretch). They have also (variably) said that international orders will be filled using 40-50% of production capacity. There must be something else going on in these figures.�
May 9, 2013
Johan @ccorda: nice article, thanks! However, how can you know the figure to be 5500??? That's only if you predict a continued identic split of sales between ARB/non-ARB states. The proportion could change. For example I believe in the start that California was heavily represented while other states that had few sales in Q1 will increase in Q2.�
May 9, 2013
VolkerP I think we all underestimated TM's innovative potential when taken to the stoxx:
- instead of paying dividends, they make the shorts pay stock holders via lend/borrow rates
- instead of raising capital, they make the other car manufacturers pay via emission credits
- instead of spending money in advertising, they turn their customers into ambassadors that evangelize people and address FUD articles in the net
Pure brilliance. Anyone care to expand this list?�
May 9, 2013
Jonathan Hewitt Instead of making their customers pay for the fuel for their cars at gas stations they provide fuel for free from this thing called the sun at superchargers (after paying an up front fixed cost).�
May 9, 2013
CapitalistOppressor No, actually they don't.
That's just not a credible interpretation of the guidance, let alone the data we have generated on this website. They are hanging their entire report on the "1/6th" multiplier that Elon mentioned. Elon also mentioned that he expected 15,000 U.S. sales this year, which is 50% higher than the report relies upon, and is much closer to the underlying demand that we have derived.
If a person makes two contradictory verbal comments over the course of a 40 minute interview its far more likely that the comment referencing a hard number (15,000) is accurate as opposed to one that requires a complex mental calculation made on the fly (1/6th).
Especially when Tesla would have sold ~9,400 units in the U.S. by the end of Q4 which leaves you with just 600 possible sales for the REST OF THE YEAR. Predicting 10,000 U.S. sales using this reasoning is just absurd.
But its even more patently ridiculous when you consider reservation data. There are under 4,000 reservations for Europe right now. We don't know how many reservations are in the U.S. but we DO know how much reservation money Tesla is holding. At the end of 2012, Tesla had ~$138m in reservation payments, which represented 15,000 worldwide reservations. At the end of March they had ~$130m in reservation payments, despite having delivered 4,900 vehicles in the mean time.
And during Q1 Tesla delivered the 200 Canadian Signature vehicles, which required ~$40,000 to reserve (for a total value of $8m) compared to the normal $5,000. If you account for the $8m in Sig deliveries, the total number of reservations outstanding is basically flat, meaning that Tesla has been getting new reservations at basically the same rate as they have been producing cars, and again the guidance for 2013 reaffirmed that the current reservation rate is ~20k/year.
Given that total reservations are flat (and started at 15k), and that there are fewer than 4000 reservations for Europe (remember that those have been accumulating for years, while there have been nearly 10,000 cars delivered in the U.S. in the last 6 months) and given that its apparent that Tesla has been sustaining a 20k/year reservation rate (with a 20k/year production rate), we know that most new reservations are in the U.S. and there is still a considerable backlog of approximately 10k U.S. reservations at this point. That backlog gets you to 15,000 without ANY additional sales this year (which itself is an absurd prediction).
The rational conclusion is that the 15,000 U.S. sales that Elon cited for 2013 is a conservative estimate. And 10,000 U.S. sales is just wrong.�
May 9, 2013
Right_Said_Fred In the conference call Elon said that the 21,000 deliveries would include about 5,000 cars for Europe and 1,000 for Asia. That leaves 15,000 for North America, so not the 10,000-12,000 inside EVs is calculating. I actually think it could be higher than 15,000 as Tesla said all European reservations until the End of April would be filled and that is only about 4,000 cars (500 Signatures + 3,500 general production), minus cancellations! And I wonder if they will already be delivering cars to Asia in 2013. That's the first time I have seen Asia and 2013 being mentioned in the same sentence, but maybe I missed something. Europe and Asia should should be a bigger piece of the pie in 2014.�
May 9, 2013
gregincal I'll also point out that they've made an additional big implicit assumption, which is that North American sales will have the same distribution over the rest of the year. We all know that California had a huge percentage of sales and dominated the early adoption of the Model S. Tesla has data on current reservation rates that we don't, and perhaps the current mix doesn't favor California as much as it did earlier. Especially since we're talking about a lot of reservations that were made during the winter that were delivered in Q1.�
May 9, 2013
fjm9898 I have seen a huge emergence of the S here in in WA and as they pointed out they are getting alot of word of mouth. If everything thing Elon has done to this point had a purpose I am willing to bet they are holding a few cards back in that earnings report to help spur on another jump when Q2 is released.
Elon is a sly fox.�
May 9, 2013
kenliles ^^ yeah I'm in WA as well and noticed exactly the same ^^
By the way- I missed the first part of the earnings call- did they report cash balance?�
May 9, 2013
SFOTurtle We're all just guessing, but word of mouth and actually seeing these vehicles driving on the streets on a regular basis has generated a buzz around the SF Peninsula, which I know from personal experience is motivating some people to buy the car. There is confidence in seeing more and more of these driving and hearing so many positives and being able to have a friend drive you around in one. A friend and colleague is reserving one today after becoming virtually obsessed with the car, no doubt in large part to living here in CA and seeing them all the time.
�
May 9, 2013
ModelS8794 There were 200 Canadian Sigs? I thought less... but more importantly, pretty sure just about all were delivered in 4Q12. no?
Edit: here's a Canada Sig thread - Looks like deliveries started 12/20/12. Most probably done that week. The long wait is finally over!!
Anyway, recall how massive reservations were in December, and how stagnant in January and bigenning of Feb. I fully expect the reservation list declined from 12/12 to 3/13, but that fact and the guidance on the call reflecting current demand at 20k/yr level are not mutually exclusive, IMO.�
May 9, 2013
CapitalistOppressor All of the financials are in the shareholder's letter available here -
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2392125069x0x661989/ee71d11b-3563-489c-9471-9319fd963626/Q1%2013%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf
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Customer deposits is listed right under "liabilities." $138m end of December, $130m end of March. Not exactly much falloff. And I see no reason at all to suppose they were mostly done that week. Regardless, there haven't been much in the way of new Sig reservations, so the total number of reservations is as close to flat so as not to matter.
And yes, we know from the reservations thread that reservations were relatively low in January and early February, but that was the slow time of year for everyone. There is no reason to project those numbers forward when the financial statement still shows them holding a lot of reservations.
Of course, reservations might still really be "deferrals." But there isn't evidence of massive cancellations or drops in underlying demand, especially with anecdotal reports in the last couple of months of strong sales at the stores.
Edit: looked at the Canadian thread. Clearly a lot of Sig's were delivered in late December, but the photos show like 20 cars. No reason to suppose that 200 were delivered in a week. Regardless of where you put the Canadian Sig deliveries the $$ amount for deposits is basically flat Q4-Q1.�
May 9, 2013
Cattledog How many signature reservations are out there, 500 max if you count European Model S and all Model X. Max. So that's $20M in held deposits. That leaves $110M remaining and divide that by $5,000 and you get 22,000. So at the end of March they likely had over 22,000 cars on order? Something doesn't seem right.�
May 9, 2013
akula So what do you think of the idea that the EPS will not be as high in the 2nd quarter as in the first? The letter talks about higher R&D expenses and SGA expenses. I think the mix of cars will be much more diverse in contrast to the 1st quarter which was loaded with p85s mostly, which should lower the average revenue per car sold.�
May 9, 2013
kenliles along with fewer credits; Q2 and Q3 should be lower; tough sell to the market
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got it thanks;
$231M in cash- very good; they never used the new cap raise. $200M to be spent in 2013. they'll need another Cap raise in 2014 when MX, GenIII ramp�
May 9, 2013
fjm9898 remember dont count Q2 and Q3 for what that report says. Q1 was better then expected. i still bet that Elon held some things back for the Q2 predictions that way it seems like a big gain when they do better then expected.�
May 9, 2013
akula This is kind of what I am worried about in the near-term. Since there are so many naysayers as is, the moment you miss just a bit they will drive the price down. Long term I think this company will blow the roof of this joint but I think the wild ride is just beginning and we will have as many "sky is the limit" moments for TSLA as we will have what I will only call "gravity events." It's important to keep perspective long-term.�
May 9, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Yes, I've been spending a little time puzzling that over. My best guess is the exchange rates. �40,000 is a lot more money than $40,000. If I recall correctly when trying to tabulate it, there were like 587 Sig reservations worldwide, with 500 in Europe. I'm not even certain the reservation amount is �40,000 though, so I didn't delve into it too much. But current exchange rate is �1.00 to $1.32, which is significant.
Even so, quickie napkin math wasn't quite getting me there and I didn't have time to think about it properly. First step is to know the reservation policy in each country.�
May 9, 2013
DonPedro Maybe model X reservations.�
May 10, 2013
DJ Frustration I don't think you're counting Model X reservations correctly. There are ~200 Sigs and ~3,600 Prod just in the US.�
May 10, 2013
Zythryn I would also guess that cars that were paid for, but not yet counted as delivered were counted as liabilities.
If there were 100 of those, that is another 7-8 Million.�
May 10, 2013
Cattledog So, spitballing here:
100 cars paid for - call it $10M
600 Signature Reservations - with Euros and $ mixed at 40,000/car, call it $25M
3,600 Model X Reservations - call it $18M
That's $53M, leaving $77M to account. Which is 15,400 Model S reservations/orders at $5K each.
Still puzzled. Is there something else creating liabilities?
Hope it's right, that would be staggeringly great reservations in hand, even with a loss factor (which is diminishing with new order policy). No wonder they say they're subscribed for 2013.�
May 10, 2013
gregincal I think you're still low on signature reservations. According to the threads on this forum there's over 550 Model S sig reservations and 3-400 Model X sig reservations.�
May 10, 2013
ShortSlaver Same here. Their projections are great long term (more cars than expected) but they're investing into infrastructure to improve the overall experience which will pay in the not so long term. I have a feeling it will be interpreted as Tesla slipping. However, they made it a big point to mention Q2 will be lower than Q1.
If they hit or exceed their 25% margins and push out 22,000 cars instead of 21,000 somehow, they will be more than OK and over $100.�
May 12, 2013
Johann Koeber I paid 30k Euro for my euporean SIG reservation.
I got 26k back when I downgraded to R, needing the money to pay for my roadster.
So the exchange rate effect is only marginal.�
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