Nov 18, 2014
M67v Don't get me wrong, I'm a Tesla fan and forever a Tesla fan (please refer to my account title and my signature). My favorite car in the whole world is the Tesla Model S. I don't talk bad about Tesla Motors.
BUT! But... I'm starting to question the production of the Model X, and the existence of Fast Pack Swapping at Tesla stations.
Ever since the unveil of the Model X, Tesla has never updated the Model X site. Here is the site: Model X | Tesla Motors . The only thing that changed is the estimated delivery date of the Model X. It went from early 2014, to late, 2014, early 2015, fall 2015, late 2015, and now it's at early 2016.
This could mean the Model 3 can be delayed for even longer.
Same thing with the Fast Pack Swap. Ever since the Fast Pack Swap video Fast Pack Swap Event - YouTube I never heard about it again. The battery swap can be a big asset for the company and proving electric cars.
What do you guys think?
UPDATE:
The battery swap stations are happening. Also I know for sure Tesla is going to impress me in the end for the Model X. When it will happen is beyond me.�
Nov 18, 2014
bonnie Are you saying you don't think Model X will be produced? Or?
Have you read the threads about Harris Ranch battery swap station?
Harris Ranch is getting first battery swap station
Harris Ranch Battery Swap
Battery Swap Station - Firmware challenges (Speculation))?�
Nov 18, 2014
Johan I think don't mix the two issues. Model X is coming, no reason whatsoever to doubt that. Swapping is coming too, but only a limited edition trial likely at Harris Ranch and likely in some sort of beta mode at first. It's my personal belief that the way they presented swapping at the event and then NOTHING for a year (and all the info is gone from teslamotors.com) has been a bit misleading and does not reflect well on Tesla. It has nothing to do with the coming of the X though.�
Nov 18, 2014
M67v Now that I think of it, I might have sounded a bit harsh. I'll update it right now.�
Nov 18, 2014
Citizen-T That's for new reservations. They are saying that they are sold out of Model X for 2015. This isn't surprising given that we are estimating somewhere around 20k reservations based on the data we have. Even if they expect to hit the ground running at a 30k/year run rate (which would be insane) that's only 7500 cars delivered in Q4 2015. Obviously if you reserve today it is going to be well into 2016 before you get your X.
My opinion on the delays in Model X and battery swap are well known on the forums by now, I think, so I won't rehash them here.�
Nov 18, 2014
adiggs At least personally, once I have the X or S, the current Supercharger charging model works fine for me - the pack swap based on capability that I am aware of today (and given that it was widely available), isn't something that I view as a competitive advantage. Not saying that I can't be proven wrong, or that it can't be a competitive advantage for the company - just that I personally give it no value for my own ownership of the X or S when I get it.
To your observation about the changing dates - the initial delivery dates have clearly been sliding. The dates you're citing though, and their continued change, are a function of when Tesla believes that a NEW reservation would be delivered. Even given that initial delivery doesn't change again, you should expect the estimate for when a new reservation on X is delivered to continue to move out in time, as Tesla continues to take reservations.
For Model 3, this could well be 3 points (Roadster, S, now X) forms a pattern, and we extend that to Model 3, so yes, Model 3 will be late, and then later.
For Model 3, it could be that Tesla is finally well funded and resourced, and it's the car that everything else has been building to, and so the company puts a team to work early and funds it well, and makes a point of delivering Model 3 as soon as the economics work, if not even a little sooner (I figure early Model 3 deliveries will be well optioned, well appointed cars, and priced in the 50-70k range, with later variants getting down to $35k).
The only real takeaway is we're all just making stuff up and guessing about the future.�
Nov 18, 2014
Chickenlittle Believing as you do you should sell short. Good luck�
Nov 18, 2014
Doug_G Given that the OP took back the question about pack swap, I have edited the title and moved the discussion to the Model X forum.�
Dec 12, 2014
Merrill Ok, so when are we going to see the Model X! When does everyone think we will have the opportunity to touch a real Model X. At some point Tesla has to reveal the actual vehicle and I hope it is very soon, would be good for a 4th quarter bump.�
Dec 12, 2014
timf I still think we'll see it by the time the Detroit Auto Show opens on January 12, because it would make no sense for Tesla to go there without it.
To further elaborate, I predict an event at the Fremont plant the week of January 5 to unveil it away from the crowds of the auto show. At this point they are too busy trying to deliver as many P85Ds before the end of the year as possible, but once the new year hits things will calm down considerably and they can then turn their attention to the Model X. The "D" event was right after the start of the quarter, so it would make sense for an "X" event to follow the same timing.�
Dec 16, 2014
Merrill Still waiting for my bone!�
Dec 16, 2014
HVM It endsup here:
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Dec 16, 2014
Hugh Mannity The x is for sale in europe cool! 105000 euro though holy crap! That about 150k cad, too rich for my blood that one
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Dec 17, 2014
Red Sage ~*sigh*~
It truly amazes me how often even Tesla Enthusiasts keep saying this. It is one thing to be pragmatic. It is one thing to be realistic. It is one thing to even be pessimistic. But there is a certain point where one may cross the line to being a Naysayer.
Tesla Motors goal from the outset has been to release their Generation III vehicles. Everything they have done to this point has been to create the environment, establish the supply chain, build the capacity, expand the infrastructure, and examine the markets that will allow for a successful launch of Model ?.
I am certain that Tesla Motors designers and engineers have not been sitting on their hands since January 2012. The Model X will be, as promised, far better in final form than has been anticipated thus far.
Similarly, everything that Tesla Motors has learned from Generation I (Tesla Roadster), and Generation II (Model S, Model X) will prepare the company to rollout Model ? without a hitch.
Is it too much to ask, that we have some faith, some hopefulness, some emotion, just a little bit of positive energy that allows for the possibility, despite evidence to the contrary, that Tesla Motors will have their act together to deliver Model ? to its first Customers during 2017?�
Dec 17, 2014
Merrill I agree with what you are saying, it would be nice if they could send out an update on where things are at. This would also stop most of the speculation. Something like "Thank you for being a Model X reservation holder and we are currently refining the production vehicle and hope to have something for you to see in the next few months, blah blah. Can change the verbiage to what ever you want just tell us something.�
Dec 17, 2014
roblab You mean keep the public informed, just like GM, Ford, and Chrysler, and Toyota, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, etc. etc. etc.? They're a car company. They don't do informing the public. Even though it would be nice if they wrote you a personal email.�
Dec 17, 2014
Merrill I'm not the public, I have ordered a Model X and would like to know how and when I might get delivery of my order.�
Dec 17, 2014
felixtb you have actually not ordered a model X but you reserved one. there is a distinction. a reservation is less formal or binding than an order and therefore you are less likley to get any release updates. you have however, put money down to help the company move forwards to finally produce your vehicle so you could expect something more than a stone wall when it comes to info, but not much since your money is 100% refundable until you ACTUALLY do order it at a later date..... It will be amazing so just hang in there and wait with the rest of us...�
Dec 17, 2014
Canuck Assuming you're not being sarcastic (and I can't tell) then for me: "YES" -- it is way too much to ask to have faith and emotion over reason and evidence. I just don't see any way Tesla can deliver the Model 3 two years from now with the battery factory barely started and the backlog for batteries with the Model S reservations and soon to be Model X (of which there are currently over 20k!).�
Dec 18, 2014
Alfred It is better for Tesla not to communicate too much about what is when to be released. That would only accelerate competitors programs. Let them go about business as usual without heated exchanges at board and management levels.�
Dec 18, 2014
Merrill I know, just bored and as I said before looking for a bone. I will wait no matter how long it takes because I love My Model S and really want to be all electric and I know the Model X will be amazing.�
Dec 18, 2014
felixtb +1�
Dec 19, 2014
Merrill I guess I got my bone in the form of a Xmas card from Tesla and Jerome thanking me for my Model X reservation and to tell me they will have more information coming in 2015.�
Dec 19, 2014
Cueonly I'm hoping for a lot more than information coming in 2015!!!�
Dec 19, 2014
Merrill It actually says "we continue to make exciting advances in the development of the Model X which is shaping up to be a phenomenal car that defies comparison. We will have more updates for you and start Model X deliveries in 2015. We truly appreciate your support".�
Dec 19, 2014
felixtb what's making you so special?
hope I gets card too.......�
Dec 20, 2014
Merrill I guess Jerome just liked my dog, I assume everyone who has a Model X reservation will get a Xmas card as well.�
Dec 20, 2014
gjunky I guess that means no beta event invites this year... I wonder if this means that the old X prototype is going to be shown in Detroit again.�
Dec 20, 2014
ecarfan I'm betting that Tesla will show a near-production ready version of the X at the NAIAS. The timing would be perfect. It would steal the show and demonstrate that Tesla is ready for X production in 2015.�
Dec 20, 2014
Merrill Agree, why would you be in this show and not have your next model on display.�
Dec 20, 2014
roblab Does anybody know for sure if Tesla will be in the NAIAS? I heard Michigan was trying to ban them because they don't have any dealers. Or was that FUD and rumor?�
Dec 20, 2014
bonnie Michigan did ban them. Bill was signed. But that doesn't mean they cannot display their American-made car at the largest American auto show.
In any case, they do have a paid booth on the floor. Question is what will be in the booth ... I think unless they've done a Model X reveal with reservation holders, that it will probably be a P85D on display.�
Dec 20, 2014
JST I see the logic behind this, but if that's how it ends up happening it will be kind of bizarre--after all, there was a Model X on display at NAIAS two years ago. Kind of ironic to have more information on the car available at the show in 2013 than 2015.�
Dec 20, 2014
bonnie The X on display in 2013 was the same (outside of color) as the one they had already shared with reservation holders. They typically have their own event for customers, with press, first.�
Dec 20, 2014
timf The one shown in 2013 was different than the one shown in early 2012. It had side mirrors instead of cameras and a slightly different interior, and was supposed to be closer to the final design than the original prototype. This is the white one that has been featured at various events an on TV since then. Of course, it's expected now that the production model has evolved significantly from even that design, so who knows how much of it will carry over.
I will be very disappointed if the Model X is not at NAIAS. Not only because I am looking forward to seeing it up close, but because until the beta makes a public debut it makes you question whether Tesla can meet even their revised Q3 first delivery schedule. You can't do all your testing indoors or at night, so it has to show up on the road sometime if they are really making progress on proving the design.�
Dec 20, 2014
bonnie Outside of the mirrors (which come and go, depending), it really was only color. White instead of 'anthracite' (my term), the oreo interior. But the body and interior were the same. Only finish was changed. They did not retire the 2012 X when the white one was displayed.
And speak for yourself regarding doubting the revised schedule.�
Dec 20, 2014
JST I know. Like I said, I understand the logic behind your prediction. I just find it bizarre that the best place for the general public to see, sit in, and touch the 2015 Model X is at the 2013 Detroit Auto Show.�
Dec 20, 2014
bonnie If they were worried about sales, I'd agree with you. But considering that they're sold out for first year of production ... doesn't seem like much of an issue.�
Dec 20, 2014
JST Right. Especially true given that we have no firm idea when that "first year of sales" will actually start. Maybe we will see it at the 2017 show.
Edit: on the positive side, I am starting to think Model X deliveries will begin before I get my replacement drive unit. So.�
Dec 20, 2014
markb1 This makes sense, but what would make the most sense is for them to hurry up and do the unveil for reservation holders before NAIAS, so they can also show it at NAIAS.
If the Model X is missing from the 2015 NAIAS, that sends the message that they won't be able to deliver in 2015, true or not. If they have already built betas, what's the hold up?�
Dec 20, 2014
Merrill I agree, if they just show the S and the D I will be disappointed. The exterior of both these cars are identical and even though the D is Insane, they need the X on display.�
Dec 20, 2014
bonnie I'm sure Tesla has a full reveal strategy planned. Can't wait to see it all unfold.�
Dec 20, 2014
Nubo One thing that gives me pause is that they really don't seem to be worried about sales and have talked in terms of actively discouraging Model X reservations. Do they really want to produce this car? It's hard to tell sometimes. Makes me worry about how enthusiastically they'll be supporting it.�
Dec 20, 2014
JST I am not worried about them supporting the car. I am sure that they will do so.
Bonnie's point is well-taken--when you have sold your first year out, you don't need to advertise. More than that, you don't *want* to advertise, because you'll likely just end up with a bunch of frustrated customers. See, eg, the P85D delivery threads.
Of course, there are some very legitimate questions about where the X is at this point in terms of development. I get that Tesla wants to stick to its reveal strategy, and that's fine...but not having a production ready car to show to the public at this point does lead me to wonder whether they are going to hit the current deadline.�
Dec 20, 2014
AlMc I don't see an X reveal at the NAIAS. TM has always had a reveal for the 'faithful':biggrin: before general reveal. I was hoping for a 'New Year's eve surprise' bicoastal reveal but too short a time frame now. So, it is probably Feb/March. EM had commented at one time that he wanted to test the limits of demand on the S in 2014 and could not. The S is doing so well (nice margins) that there is no need to push out the X.
IMO, that is the reason for no X reveal. Additional possibilities: Waiting for some real world testing of the AWD in the 'D' class S; waiting for Feds to allow cameras versus mirrors; maybe even a bigger battery pack.
So, no X at the NAIAS. My 'off the wall thought'. How about a prototype for the model3.....That would bring down the house.�
Dec 20, 2014
markb1 I disagree. They do need to push out the X, because they say they are going to ship it next year. They need to reveal it before they start taking orders, for sure. If they don't reveal it very soon, then I have to question whether the release date has slipped yet again, and I don't think I will be the only one. Expect the investors to freak out of there is no Model X reveal at or before NAIAS.�
Dec 20, 2014
gg_got_a_tesla An interesting tidbit for all ye X faithful that I heard from a couple of delivery folks when picking up my S at the factory today: they both mentioned that they've seen new X protos coming off the line that look not much like the original X proto at all; the new units are fabulous-looking and will blow folks away (their words).�
Dec 20, 2014
TexasEV So let the investors freak out. Tesla needs to do what's best for it's long term goals and not worry about quarterly numbers, or week to week changes in the stock price. That's what's wrong with some publicly traded companies. It's actually a shame Tesla couldn't have stayed private like SpaceX.
Revealing at the Detroit Auto Show (which is what it is, even if it has a more grandiose title) is playing Detroit's game. Tesla doesn't need to play Detroit's game.�
Dec 20, 2014
ecarfan @gg, thanks for sharing that news! Very good to hear. I have no interest in owning an X but as a shareholder and Tesla supporter I certainly want it to be a huge success. My money is still on one of those X prototypes being at the NAIAS
�
Dec 20, 2014
markb1 I think it's a legitimate problem if Tesla continues to slip their dates, though. Tesla is the one who set the expectations in the first place.�
Dec 20, 2014
AlMc If other investors do freak out I will be buying their shares. I am confident I will be driving an X in the 3rd or 4th Q of 2015 and that Founders will be getting their by the end of Q2/early Q3. I am anxious to be at the X reveal but I am not concerned if it is not at the NAIAS.�
Dec 20, 2014
Red Sage Well, no. I was perfectly sincere. I'm usually a bit more obvious when I'm being sarcastic. ;-)
Sorry you feel this way. Really. Personally, I reserve my pessimism for the notion that traditional automobile manufacturers will be able to 'steal' the electric car market from under Tesla Motors 'anytime they want' as some say.
Oh, there's a way for it to work. Cars aren't really that hard to build once the design is complete, quality assurance has worked out bugs, and the supply line is in place. I see the path toward Tesla Motors' success clearly.
The biggest supply issue has always been batteries. When Tesla Motors and Panasonic banged out a revised deal for 18650 battery cells earlier this year, a lot of that was handled. To fulfill the need that Tesla projected, Panasonic must build out more capacity at their Japanese plant. It was that knowledge that caused them to say, "No." to Tesla's initial request last year. Tesla had to commit toward paying Panasonic's build-out costs, along with accepting and paying for the battery cells, even if it was determined their need would be lower than projected.
But Tesla knows full well they will need every single one of them. There will be no scaling back of orders. If anything, the Model X will be so popular that this time next year Tesla will be begging Panasonic for even more batteries.
It was this agreement that led to the reconfiguration of the Fremont facility, in preparation for ramping up production of Model S.
I have long thought the Model S would be set to around 50,000 units annual production as a maximum, at Fremont. Worldwide demand for Model S can probably support more than that. But this is a flagship vehicle, not the mass market car. As long as territories are satisfied with a 3-6 month wait time, that level of production should suffice without enhancement. Still, I'm sure Elon Musk would like to see the wait dropped to no more than 3 months. I believe that will eventually lead to a factory in China manufacturing Model S.
I believe that the assembly line at Fremont is currently running at a fraction of its theoretical maximum build rate. Currently being used to produce around 1,000 Model S per week, the same line will also assemble Model X. They will be interleaved with each other while the speed of assembly is gradually increased to 2,000 per week, a 1:1 ratio between them, by the end of 2015.
I believe that is only the beginning. I really believe the Model X will be a runaway hit. It will be popular among people with growing families, Hollywood starlets, hardcore rappers, and boulevard posers. Long after any fad-like accolades may fade, the Model X will remain a mainstay of shuttle, livery, and taxi companies. And like the high-end SUVs of other marques, which outsell their sedan counterparts, the Model X will grow into a 3:1 sales advantage over the Model S in short order.
If I am correct, this means that by the time Model ? is released, the Model X will be on pace to move 150,000 units per year worldwide. The high visibility of the Model X will make Tesla Motors a household name. And when the public gets wind of the Model ? there will be an avalanche of interest. The waiting list will grow from six months, to nine, then explode to two years practically overnight.
Luckily, the Gigafactory will have come online early. Battery packs for Model ? will begin production ahead of the cars, and stockpiled. That will allow tens of thousands to be delivered within the first six months. The ramp up will be the fastest Tesla Motors has ever managed, and will thoroughly amaze automotive pundits the world over.
And I'll be first in line to get mine.�
Dec 29, 2014
killer_model_s It's now abundantly clear (particularly in context of the P85D range issues) that the reason the Model X is continuously delayed is due to its inability to generate sufficient range with a 85kwh battery. It's not Falcon Wing Doors that are holding back any reveal of the Model X - it's the fact that any reveal would also have to answer any questions of range. Heavier setup, dual motors, increased drag, etc etc all significantly bring down the range and it's questionable whether a Model X would have enough range to make it from SC to SC with a 85kwh setup.
I'm afraid that unless Tesla can come out with new battery technology (i.e. same weight battery with higher energy output), they will not reveal the Model X anytime soon. I would wager that any Model X reveal will come along with an announcement of a higher kWh battery at the same time.�
Dec 29, 2014
AnxietyRanger Range and related materials etc. work is probably a part of the issue, likely not the full issue. Even falcon wings can play into that, as judging by the photos making those lighter (and thus the car lighter) seems to have been one of the things Tesla has busied themselves with. I doubt there is any showstoppers there, just more work to get all the pieces finalized than Tesla had anticipated. It is also perfectly possible thing like the rear-seat convenience features and falcon wing reliability are amongst the reasons for delays. Model X is expected to have plenty of new stuff, like the new steering wheel etc etc, any combination of these things may be behind the delay. There is hardly evidence to conclude that a particular one thing is the sole reason.
If there were show-stopper range issues with the dual-motor approach, I doubt we would have seen the 85/P85D yet. Perhaps they will indeed skip the 60 kWh option and some range questions probably are still open (or have been very recently), as evidenced by Elon Musk's disappearing tweets, but to go from that to "they will not reveal the Model X anytime soon" seems excessive. I doubt there will be any additional delays to the Model X launch, I would expect it to fall in line with the previous investor letter info.�
Dec 29, 2014
bonnie No, it's not 'abundantly clear'. To you perhaps, but c'mon ... that's speculation. And it's more than fine to speculate, but I disagree with your certainty. Unless you have some inside info?
On the other hand, since you are offering to wager & you did state it wouldn't be revealed 'anytime soon' - what's the bet?�
Dec 29, 2014
ecarfan Reading these forums for the past 15 months I continue to be surprised at the remarkable number of posts in various topics where people claim to have extraordinary insight and knowledge about the inner workings of Tesla that then lead them to reach conclusions with such high levels of certainty.�
Dec 29, 2014
killer_model_s Yes, sorry for the implied certainty. It's abundantly clear to me, based on initial experiences that P85D owners have, that range is what's holding back Model X. I would speculate that ~20% reduction in rated range due to dual motors, size, weight, drag, etc. bringing the EPA rating to at or below 200 miles is a marketing nightmare for Tesla. Imagine the disappointment of X res holders. If I am right however, I cannot imagine a Model X reveal without a simultaneous reveal of a bigger (i.e. more energy output) battery.�
Dec 29, 2014
bonnie But ... no bet? Sooo disappointed.�
Dec 29, 2014
killer_model_s I have absolutely no insider knowledge of Tesla's inner workings whatsoever, but sometimes the facts are right in front of our eyes and we can chose to draw our conclusions or ignore them altogether.
My question then becomes: Do you believe Tesla can possibly engineer the Model X to have similar range in a dual motor setup as the Model S P85D? If not, do you believe Tesla would reveal a Model X with less than 200 miles of rated range (again, pure speculation on what the range of the Model X would be)? My speculation is that the answer to both of those questions is an emphatic NO.
- - - Updated - - -
You're likely to be more disappointed if I am right.�
Dec 29, 2014
bluenation i, too, thought the delay was purely a business decision
then the p85d range issue came up....now im going "hmmm..."�
Dec 29, 2014
markb1 But they did release the D, so I don't see the logic in delaying the X for this.�
Dec 29, 2014
Earlian The range is clearly an issue for the Model X especially on Autobahn -with higher speeds. The bigger front will cost a lot of range, so I also hope they are delaying for doing this right and for the -often wished- bigger battery.
But- I'm with AR+Bonnie, it is not the only reason. Tesla told there are a lot of little details, to get the X to mass production and I also think there is long line:
New interior, Falcon Wings, Mirrors/Camera (legalization!), range, missing real-World dual-motor experience (thx to P85D beta testers), and so on - and all this with Elons need to make this third Telsa the best! ("The Model X is something that should exist.")
I still have my personal troubles with the delay, but reasons are out there -more then just one.
So cross fingers for Q3
Greets Earl�
Dec 29, 2014
AnxietyRanger Indeed, they did release the Model S D, so I doubt there is anything inherently holding back the dual-motor or the Model X. There is probably a long list of smaller things that have added up and Tesla has been pretty bad in communicating and estimating. That said, I do remember comments from some Tesla designer or architect or another within the year that working on lessening the weight of the vehicle has been one thing they are doing - and we can probably see some of those gains in slimmer falcon wing door profiles in that silhouette photo that surfaced some time ago. So, it is - my guess - a mash of things, range, dual motor, falcon wings, rear-seat/convenience features etc.
As for a new battery option, I noted this in the Tesla blog about Roadster 3.0: "The Roadster 3.0 package applies what we've learned in Model S to Roadster. No new Model S battery pack or major range upgrade is expected in the near term." Obviously something demanded by either marketing or legal to curb unwanted wait for a new Model S battery based on the Roadster news, but if Tesla had a, say, 110 kW battery right behind the corner (or even, say, a new starter 70 kWh or somesuch), I doubt they would formulate it like that. Now, of course it doesn't mean they couldn't make such a battery exclusive for Model X in the beginning... I think it just seems a little less likely to see any new battery packs for Model X on launch, if Model S is not getting the same, as I'd think it would have benefits for Tesla to keep the batteries the same for the second generation.
Edit: Perhaps even the aero-upgrades for Roadster are a hint of things to come for Model X. Someone heard that the beta vehicles look nothing like the original prototypes, maybe that high and big face of Model X has also been receiving some of this aerodynamic love.�
Dec 29, 2014
AlMc One (of many) New Year's resolutions.....Never, ever...ever.....bet against Bonnie:wink: I am up to a case of beer or wine from poorly placed 2014 bets
As to delays in model X: I would like to see one today, yesterday even better. However, IMO, there are multiple logical reasons for the delay. They can't make the Ss fast enough to satisfy demand. The S, especially the D gets them higher margins than what will be the initial margins on the X. The 'D' is the beta drivetrain for the X and if you are TM why not have the D out for a couple months, tweeking with a model that you already know? The beta testing on the D may result in deciding that a bigger battery pack is needed and the smaller 60 will not be made available for it.�
Dec 29, 2014
killer_model_s Personally, I think it's a common misconception on this and other forums to think that the D was released as a test vehicle for the drive train of the Model X. I believe the D was released because Tesla is under pressure to release new products with the continued re-scheduling of the release of the Model X. Tesla already knows what the dual motor setup can and cannot do - it doesn't need much additional data and it's been testing it for a while now. If the Model X is to be released at the end of 2015, most of its engineering and specs are already in place. It's unrealistic to think Tesla will collect information on the D for the next 6 months and then incorporate that data into changes of the final Model X drivetrain design to be rolled out 3 months later. The timing does not make sense (to me).�
Dec 29, 2014
AnxietyRanger I agree with this part. I doubt "D" release has too much to do with Model X. Model S D is probably right about on time, what is late instead is Model X. Had Model X been completed on time, it may have had been the first release of the dual motor system with Model S D following shortly afterwards, instead of the other way around now.
However, to me this suggests the issue may not be the dual motor drivetrain or its efficiency at all, but more Model X specific things like the doors, convenience features, etc. Some of that, of course, may have and probably has been weight loss and aero work, thus range related, but the dual motor system probably isn't the delay for Model X.
Of course we are all speculating.�
Dec 29, 2014
NigelM So true.
Tesla developed the D because they could, they launched the Model S 'D' because they could, it's good for business. Launching a whole new vehicle (Model X) is much more complicated than another 'S' variant; all the elements have to work together and without insider knowledge it's impossible to say what, if anything physical at all) has led to the 'X' delays. Let's also remember that Tesla has been production constrained up till quite recently and likely will still be somewhat supply constrained on certain elements (e.g.batteries) in the short-term.�
Dec 29, 2014
Twiddler I agree with those that feel that the D was released when it was, completely ready or not, as a real world trial run of the dual motors within an existing platform. Yes, I am sure that they exhaustively evaluated the dual motor set up, but anyone who has spent any time in R&D knows that there is no substitute to real-world large volume (i.e. thousands of miles) testing. The susceptibility of the original model S to road debris is a good example. They want to get the X out very soon, but why not get miles on the dual motor set up in the meantime in a vehicle that is otherwise well proven. This, not conspiracy theories regarding missed revenues or demand issues, is why the D was released in such a hasty manner. Elon has already made it very clear that pleasing Wall Street is not the primary, or secondary, aim of Tesla. Further, I do not know how he could possibly make it clearer that there is not a demand issue. The X is coming. The D is the thunder before the storm.�
Dec 29, 2014
ecarfan To the first question: can they "possibly"? YES OF COURSE because the engineers working for Tesla know a multitude of things that you and I know nothing about.
To the second question: NO OF COURSE NOT since Elon has stated multiple times that Tesla will not release a model with less than 200 miles of range.�
Dec 29, 2014
Aljohn There may have been a subtle hint in the D tweet. Elon said on a couple of interviews that the forums had broke the code on the D as Dual Motors, and that the other letter would have been obvious. I think it was intended to be X. Model X reservations holders were invited as well. When I made my Model X reservations in April last year, the Dual Motors were standard. Even the local store didn't realize that had happened they thought dual motors were an option on the X.
Given that, I think the original intent was the reveal the X and announce the dual motor Option on the Model S at the same time. When Tesla made the dual motor standard on the X, it was most likely in the plan as an option on the S to keep the platforms similar. If one looks at the last year, Tesla moved to "homogenize" the line to improve the output of the factory with fewer permutations (making sensors and fog lights part of the Tech Pack -- making the Red Calipers for the 85-D only). I think Tesla came to realize what all manufactures have; that is, it is not possible to have every option individual, and packaging is the only feasible way to go. Check the X site... dual motor and performance dual motor--sounds like the S85D and P85D.
For those reasons, I think once the Dual motor was engineered, the options for the S was planned with both due to be announced concurrently in October 2014. Something delayed the X reveal. So here we are.�
Dec 29, 2014
NigelM 42....�
Dec 29, 2014
bonnie Still true. imo.�
Dec 29, 2014
Crowded Mind The other letter was assuredly "A" for Autopilot which was also widely speculated about. I'm fairly certain Elon even introduced autopilot by referencing the "something else" part of the tweet.�
Dec 29, 2014
James Anders The big picture.
More than any other Tesla car - the Model X has to be near perfect. The Model S has had a few hiccups but in general has set the bar very high.
People will shortly forget the delays in the MX - but if the MX isn't just about 99.99% perfect, then that negativity will carry over to the Model 3 and that just can't happen.
So, spending the extra time to ensure near perfection is very wise.
-J�
Dec 30, 2014
Nevek That's encouraging! Both the presumably improved looks (the prototype looks are OK but not remarkable) and that something is moving on the line. Thanks for the update.�
Dec 30, 2014
Tim Alguire Elon has said they could probably produce a handful of units now.. So yeah something is moving... Beta cars now... I am sure the have produced the final version of the car for testing and know what it looks like, smells like and how it performs... They are not showing us yet..�
Dec 30, 2014
NigelM Well there are beta test cars driving around the bay area. Kind of amazing that nobody has snapped any 'spy-shots' yet. It's just a matter of time.�
Dec 30, 2014
Canuck I think Tesla would jump at a 90% perfection rate. That would mean that only 10% of MX's would require warranty repairs. However, that's probably still far too optimistic. I wonder what the warranty repair percentage is for the Model S? I'd guess close to, if not greater than, 50% have been into service for some warranty issue. The real issue is keeping those repairs to minor issues, and being able to address them to the customer's satisfaction.�
Dec 30, 2014
heems Predict February (mid to late) we'll get to see/hear about the X...�
Dec 30, 2014
Merrill I know you cannot believe hearsay from the Tesla folks at the showrooms but my wife went in before Xmas to buy me a gift and chatted with someone in the Corte Madera store and he said March for the ability to see the Model X.�
Dec 30, 2014
aronth5 The one thing we know for sure is 2015 will be the year of the X and it will be a great car!�
Dec 30, 2014
bonaire I read here too that earlier in the year, a store employee in Canada, I believe it was, said there would be Model X available for test drives in stores by fall of 2014. March 2015 now seems more appropriate based on the current schedule underway.�
Dec 30, 2014
bonnie And others are convinced it will be shown at the Detroit auto show in January. Good news is eventually someone will be right. And then will jump up and say, "Told you!!".�
Dec 30, 2014
Doug_G I suspect Tesla has a policy of not releasing information internally, so people can't blab what they don't know. As a result much of what you hear from Tesla employees is actually just rumour. Much of it turns out to be completely wrong.
In other words, don't trust anything you hear from a store employee, unless he/she says it's happening in two days or it's already on teslamotors.com.�
Dec 30, 2014
EarlyAdopter A broken clock is right twice a day.
Twelve broken clocks are right all day long.�
Dec 30, 2014
AnOutsider Unless they're all set to the same time
In any case, I suppose we COULD see some static betas in March, but I think it more likely it'll be closer to the summer since they seem to be gearing up to ship in Q3.�
Dec 30, 2014
Canuck Don't we need 720 clocks provided there are no "seconds" hands, in which case you'd need 43,200 clocks, in order for them to be right all day long?
Yes, and all of them must have broke at a different time than all others.
Hopefully, this is much more difficult to have occur that the release date of the Model X!�
Dec 30, 2014
timf The clock is already ticking if they are to follow a reveal schedule anywhere near what the Model S did. We're talking beta reveal T-9 months, pricing information T-6 months, and design studio T-3 months. It's clear this schedule will need to be condensed somewhat if they are to meet first deliveries in Q3. Each month that goes by without any of these milestones puts the schedule further into question.
I always expected a beta reveal before the end of the year, but that obviously didn't happen. Now, the next best hope is early Q1 such as at the auto show. That doesn't seem very Tesla-like though, so my only real expectation is sometime before the end of Q1, possibly with pricing announced simultaneously to accelerate the milestones.�
Dec 30, 2014
Twiddler Given that time is infinitely divisible, no clock is ever completely correct.�
Dec 30, 2014
MikeL It is my understanding that physicists who study such things are generally in agreement that there is actually "no such thing as" time
I know, gives me a headache too. So if that's the case, what are we waiting for !?�
Dec 30, 2014
NigelM Hopefully not Godot. ;-)�
Dec 30, 2014
Duckjybe Wasn't design studio up 7 or 8 months before the first Model S Sig delivery?�
Dec 30, 2014
bxr140 If they're driving betas around PA they're being super ninja about it....�
Dec 30, 2014
markb1 We don't know any of that, for sure. It will probably be a great car, given Tesla's track record. It could be delivered in 2015, but I'm skeptical, also due to Tesla's track record.�
Dec 31, 2014
bluenation many car fans that are not exactly tesla fans stilll see tesla as a one hit wonder, for totally understandable reasons.
this X will hopefully hurt that misconception, altho it wont be really diminished until the 3 arrives.
and i also think, folllowing apple, tesla will do their own events to showcase the X. it would be a mistake to share the spotlight with other Detroit giants, one of which appears less than friendly to tesla.�
Dec 31, 2014
bonaire I follow the basic rules of listening to salespeople. If their mouths are moving... (you know the rest)�
Dec 31, 2014
timf It's possible there was a preliminary version up earlier, but I was referring to the actual ordering system. The Tesla blog indicates people were asked to submit their final configurations starting in late March in advance of the first deliveries in June.�
Dec 31, 2014
bonnie I don't think anyone was implying that the salespeople were lying - only that they were repeating information they'd heard (from someone internally who had heard it from 'a reliable source') and that information should not be believed. Nor do they work on commission. The misinformation is typically from enthusiastic employees thinking they're sharing some new information, but is wrong. Not lying.
Net result is the same - don't take that kind of info as fact.�
Dec 31, 2014
Nubo 
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