Feb 11, 2016
rdalcanto I am trying to come up with an educated guess on Model 3 reservations. I bet every Model S owner knows at least 5 people that would love a Tesla, but can't afford a Model S. Many Model S owners probably intend on getting a Model 3 for a family member. With 100,000 Model S owners, I predict at least 200,000 reservations by the end of April, and 500,000 by end of 2016. Any other guesses?�
Feb 11, 2016
Fallenone Andrea said she estimated Tesla has maybe one million test drives so far. I think converting half of them to reservation holders is not that hard right?�
Feb 11, 2016
CmdrThor There are a lot of people who will want a Model 3 eventually but won't necessarily want to let Tesla sit on $1,000 for years. My prediction would be 50,000 in the first few months and 100,000 by the end of the year. The low $1,000 price will help drive reservations from people who aren't quite sure whether they will actually purchase the vehicle though.�
Feb 11, 2016
Chickenlittle Would agree except for one factor, it's already been a long wait and most realize they will need to reserve early to get a chance for the federal tax rebate�
Feb 11, 2016
eloder Tesla has that Apple cult factor going on to some extent, in my opinion (and I'm caught up in it) so that's why I'm personally leaning on the side of it will defy expectations.
Perhaps the Model 3 in-store reservation (glorious marketing decision, by the way) will give us the best initial indication.�
Feb 11, 2016
beeeerock Much will depend on what it looks like and what sort of performance numbers are promised. I expect both will be quite positive, because Tesla has shown no interest in building boxes like their 'competition' (term used very loosely!).
I've never had a negative response from anyone I've taken for a drive. In fact, just the opposite - everyone has wanted a Model S but for the obstacle of the price. The idea of the Model 3 has always been the enthusiastic second choice.
Obviously, everyone has their own budget and their own automobile life cycle... so some people simply won't be in a position to put money down right away. And many more will want to see how the car turns out - reliability, drive-ability etc. But given the fact that pretty much everyone I've taken for a spin has been interested in buying a Model 3, I expect the demand will be quite amazing. So much so that I'm planning to drive 350 km to be able to pony up at the nearest Tesla store. I don't want to be back a year in production because I waited for the next day to do it online!�
Feb 11, 2016
larmor I predict a large company needing a fleet or uber will pick up 100k cars. I think 500k mark come by mid 2016.�
Feb 11, 2016
FredTMC Just thought I'd point out the obvious. 100K reservations = $100m. So, if tesla gets 500k reservations that's $500m cash to tesla.
Ummm. That's ummm HUGE�
Feb 11, 2016
larmor That's a rounding error for apple or google, just sayin...�
Feb 11, 2016
FredTMC totally true. But it's also almost half of Tesla's existing Cash On Hand. Tesla is only a $20B mkt cap
it also speaks to concerns about Tesla's capital de-risking for scaling up for Model3 production
it also translates to $25B in future revenue on those 500k cars (@ 50k avg selling price)�
Feb 11, 2016
Krugerrand I'd predict that for North America. But reservations are being accepted globally...�
Feb 11, 2016
MikeC I was thinking easily 100,000 within days and a million by 6 months. I think there are easily 10 people who want a 3 for every Model S owner and $1000 is pretty reasonable IMO.�
Feb 11, 2016
Bimbels I am more conservative as of today - I'm definitely a Tesla fanboi (girl) I don't see pre-launch reservations as high as others have speculated. Some current Tesla owners, and those who have been coveting but needed a lower price point - yes. But Tesla is still unknown to a LOT of people. Many who know are still wary of leaping into an EV. Those people aren't going to buy sight unseen IMO.
The first thing people say about my MS is wow it costs a lot. But the next questions all revolve around range, charging, time added to road trips. These unknowns are daunting for many people. I think increased presence with superchargers as the network grows will help. Even though they aren't needed as much as people assume, shaking the "gas station down the street" idea isn't as easy for everyone else. It's a different way of thinking when planning trips and will take time to adjust to.
Elon mentioned on the ER call that he would be open to advertising for the M3. I think getting the word out there not only by seeing the car on the road, being able to see in stores and test drive, but also education via advertising will help further the transition for some. Those people will need to see/feel/drive the M3 and feel comfortable with their driving habits/charging options.
I do believe it will happen. And assuming the product is as amazing as we are hoping, I think it will be (relatively) dramatic at the reveal, with people like me and those who have been waiting for a Tesla for years rushing to order. But I'm guessing less than 100K reservations before the launch. Probably less than 70K. Regardless, I think it will be good overall and once the M3 is on the road and people see it in the wild, in the years following launch, deliveries will grow exponentially.
That said, I hope I'm wrong and reservations are nuts. That'll get the rest of the industry talking.�
Feb 12, 2016
Newb I also think every reservation count above 100k is nuts. My guess is 20k within 24 hours and 80k by the end of the year (that would be X reservations times 4 to 5, roughly speaking).
The Tesla fan base is growing worldwide but Tesla Motors is still unkown to the masses. We need more videos going viral, and perhaps, we also need more fan-made ads in the traditional media (magazines, TV, cinema, etc)
To add, traditional auto-makers (and their mass media friends) will continue to talk Tesla down (at least this is what's happening in Germany) and spread fear and doubt about Tesla's future, with regards to Tesla's balance sheet (losses), production & QC problems and what not. Then again, most media outlets will point to the many delays of the Model X launch and slow ramp up, and question the delivery estimates.
So, I expect lots of feat mongering a la "You pay one grande now and you'd probably get your car in 3-4 years time, and not next year".
This will all have a negative impact on actual reservations. Don't expect crazy numbers here.�
Feb 12, 2016
Johann Koeber All your reservations (no pun intended) seem valid.
There are over 100.000 Tesla owners out there now.
If each of those just reserves one M3 or has a friend that reserves an M3, that will give you over 100.000.
So I voted for more than 100.000 in 2016. This will finally help the stock price and give Tesla credibilty in the market (suppliers, banks etc.) Even in Germany where the ETA will pobably be latter half of 2018, I expect a lot of reservations.�
Feb 12, 2016
uselesslogin Hmm, good point. I would almost think 300,000 reservations then considering that point. But we need to be honest, we have no idea. But I am thinking the number will be high enough to shock the industry. I don't think they understand how much people want this car.�
Feb 12, 2016
Hogfighter 100,000 in the first week is my prediction. SO many people have been waiting for this car.�
Feb 12, 2016
pmadflyer Person A: "did you hear that (engineer friend) got an electric car?"
Person B: "Yeah, so did (doctor friend), says it's the safest car out there."
Person A: "I'm going to have to look into that."�
Feb 12, 2016
Troy I calculated that only the first 17,500 Model 3 buyers in USA will get the full federal tax credits. More details HERE. My guess is, number of reservations will exceed this within days after online reservations open on the 1st of April. If Tesla comes out says, "We have 40,000+ global reservations", you are already too late for full tax credits. You might get half ($3750 USD).�
Feb 12, 2016
Cebe I think the website will crash on April 1st, when everybody hits it. By the time all is said and done, within a week, easily six digits.�
Feb 12, 2016
manitou820 I think 50k-75k reservations before launch is about right. Not that many people are willing to put a $1000 reservation down on a car years in advance. The yearly demand for the Model 3 will be very high, but most people buy cars somewhat spontaneously, not planning years or even months ahead. I have several friends who are very interested in the Model 3, but they aren't "car" guys and will simply wait until the hype has settled down so they can just walk into a Tesla store and order/buy a Model 3.�
Feb 12, 2016
Cebe I agree with this, but given the volume, and the ramp-up, not reserving until after the launch will mean you wouldn't get the car until 2019. That may get a few more people in line.�
Feb 12, 2016
yesla $1000 is like what? smartphone upgrade? lol I think this opens up the market for scalpers for people who dont like to wait....�
Feb 12, 2016
beeeerock Absolutely. I suspect most people are talking about the projected demand in North America and are forgetting the world markets. Elon said 'in stores and online', so I assume the world can order on the 31st/1st. The interest may be different in other countries than what we're assuming for the US market. How many deposits might come from China alone?
That being said, I do think the major manufacturers could be surprised/shocked by the numbers. It might spur them to push up their own EV offerings, because thus far they have been token efforts at best.�
Feb 12, 2016
RobStark Global demand for $35k-$70k vehicles is about 8M per year.
The markets in which Tesla competes in represents the vast majority of that demand.
S Korea is probably the last big luxury car market where Tesla does not compete.
There is a lot of pent up demand.
Tesla does not need Joe Six Pack right now that spends $35k on a fully loaded Camry or $40k on an F-150. And it certainly does not need the Average Russian,Chinese,Indian,Brazilian, or South African to make a big splash in the global entry luxury car market.
There are a lot of early adopters/early majority buyers that happily spend $600 on an iPhone but can't quite swing $75k for a Model S but can buy/lease a $40k Model 3.
I fully expect 100k reservations by May 1 2016 and at least 600k reservations/pre-orders by Model 3 Job 1.
And Tesla won't need paid advertisements to generate demand for years to come.�
Feb 12, 2016
tlo Agree with those who predict 100,000 soon after reservations open.
I'm putting a deposit down, and I already know 3 friends will who are just casual Tesla observers.
The initial demand will surprise people. 10x Model S demand is ultra conservative. The # of people who can afford the Model 3 compared with the Model S is closer to 100x.�
Feb 12, 2016
adiggs I've commented on this topic on other threads at other times. I'll get my thoughts here on this thread.
The theme is going to be shockingly high levels of demand. Demand that gets news articles written about it - demand that drives other manufacturers to change behavior (or at least issue more press releases about how they already started working on a comparable vehicle). Demand that moves the market.
More specifically, an order of magnitude increase over Model X reservations of ~30k to 300k is in my mind, the low side for a year and a half of reservation time. I think the likelihood of on-time first delivery is a lot better with Model 3 than X.
My real expectation is for reservations to be > 1 million. That the number of reservations, and the low reservation price of $1k, is itself going to drive reservations, as people realize that if they aren't in line now, then they're not waiting for a few months or a year from first ship - they're getting in line today to wait for 2 years after first ship.
Model 3 ships with enough reservations to fill 2 years (first year being relatively slow production) of production.
So many reservations that they start showing up in other manufacturer's sales numbers as Tesla freezes a small but noticeable chunk of the car buying populace, who decide to live with the current car a year or 3 longer than they normally would, so their next car can be a fully functional EV.
There will be some slow and crashing Tesla websites from trying to handle the web traffic as well
- - - Updated - - -
Adding to this observation of Rob's - that global demand in this price range is ~8M per year, I expect reservations to be drawn from about 3 years worth of sales (roughly the full year before, the first full year, and the 2nd full year of Model 3 availability). So the addressable market from which reservation holders will be drawn isn't for 1 year of demand - it's more like 3 years or 24M cars in this price range.
Then you need to add in your own fudge factor to account for people who wouldn't otherwise be in the market for a car, but they will gladly sell/trade an existing car and replace it with a Model 3 if/when the option is available.�
Feb 12, 2016
tlo Adding incentives and cost-savings for gasoline puts the starting price equivalent to $20k-$30k in many countries. That may be double the 8M market.�
Feb 12, 2016
Cebe I was wondering whether Tesla could decide to withhold the number of reservations, but figured, even if they wanted to, and tried, their financials would reveal it, as those refundable reservations have to be tracked separately...�
Feb 12, 2016
Ampster Yes at 12/31/15 customer deposits were $283 million. No breakdown between Model S or X.�
Feb 12, 2016
yesla Will model 3 get super charger access? thats what im waiting for..
they do not have enough to support the volume of M3�
Feb 12, 2016
SebastianR Supercharger access is one of the key selling points of Tesla. At some point in time many car makers will have BEVs. The question is, which car makers will have access to a supercharger network of some sort.
By the time the M3 hits the market, Superchargers will be expanded. When Model S started to sell, there were no Superchargers out there and now a lot of areas are covered. Tesla monitors usage of Superchargers and has the ability and the will to increase capacity when needed.�
Feb 13, 2016
artsci With the SC network established and growing, Elon may have a trick up his sleeve: free access for Model 3 owners. I wouldn't bet on it but it will provide an enormous competitive advantage over other BEVs in that price range. Plus Model 3 owners will be able to hang out with we S and X owners, which is not to be underestimated on the buyer status front
�
Feb 13, 2016
dc_h SC access will likely be a $2500 option. That pays for new sites\stalls, which would not be sustainable without some cost. A lot of Model 3 owners may not plan to drive long distance and won't want the option. I would expect some by the drink pricing policy for M3 as well. More budget conscious owners may only expect infrequent use and would prefer to pay a few dollars a few times a year.
�
Feb 13, 2016
bobinfla I am very bullish on the demand, and see it 100,000 reservations attempted within a month. That is only one reservation for every car currently on the road, and I'm sure every Model S driven equates to at least one person (either the owner or someone who knows them) wanting to get a Model 3. However, I also predict Tesla will run into issues with their ability to take so many orders so quickly, so it will stretch into two months before they are all taken.�
Feb 13, 2016
Twiglett this discussion of needing to charge M3 buyers for SC access is missing one vital thing.
The current network is funded entirely by a relatively small number of Model S'
Tesla predict they will continue to see accelerating growth for Model S - which will in turn provide even more funding for more superchargers - 300 more in 2016 alone.
Given that is the case - why on earth would Tesla need to charge anything at all for Model 3 SC access, especially $2500 which is even more than they charged S60 buyers when there was no infrastructure and even fewer cars to fund it ?
If they charge anything at all, it will be minimal.�
Feb 13, 2016
flankspeed8 The build out is certainly paid for, but how you can possibly account for an infinite (well sort of) amount of electric use? Especially in places that will never be suitable for solar or battery? I can only imagine the nasty demand charges Tesla gets nailed for in certain areas. The life of a car is a long time, especially a Tesla which is built to be upgraded on the fly.
I am not bashing the concept, but just wondering how they can account for it in the long run when they have millions of cars on the road. Is it fair to use the wireless companies abandonment of unlimited as an analog?�
Feb 13, 2016
Twiglett pretty easily I would suspect.
They are making more and more margin on each Model S as they continually refine it. The same will happen to Model 3. The margin per car could be less, but the massive increase in copies will offset that.
I would love to see stats on how much electricity a Model S is actually costing Tesla, I would bet that the majority don't speed huge amounts of time at superchargers.
I don't see that changing.
Sure a small number of owners make a living driving all over the country all day long, but most drivers will go weeks without using a supercharger.�
Feb 14, 2016
mrdoubleb Interesting thread, I've been thinking about this myself as well, but I am kind of torn. Don't get me wrong, i think eventually the Model 3 will be very successful, but I wonder how big the initial preorder count will be... Not sure how much we TMCers live under a bubble.
Scenario 1 - 60%: The rave reviews about the Model S, the recent media focus on X, the constant media presence sustained by new features, novel approaches (OTA, FWD on X), sales records (S beating everything in class), TSLA's wild rides, all those Youtube videos, Elon as a POP culture figure and the halo effect of SpaceX and Hyperloop have already deeply embedded Tesla in people's minds. The brand is looked at as the bleeding edge, would-give-an-organ-for ultimate piece of technology to get and we have millions of 20-30 somethings around the world who salivate after the S and the X but could never afford it. Come March 31st they will storm the Tesla stores, come April 1st they will crash the Tesla website.
Scenario 2 - 40%: While people have heard a lot about Tesla, the brand is already vaguely familiar to the masses, most people still think EVs are "the future", but not there just yet. They have partial information and still keep saying things like "... will be cool once goes as far as a diesel" and "... only when I can recharge in 5 minutes at any petrol station". There is a well informed, but relatively small number of peopel interested in technology or enthusisatic about cars, nerds, if you will, who would love to own a Tesla and many of them will reserve a Model 3 - but this will not amount to tens of thousands of reservations at first. Once the 3 is reviewed and starts to be delivered, more and more people will be converted, but this will be a longer sales curve.
I really don't know what to think, but I do recognize I'm biased (we all are...) and 100x better informed about Tesla than most people we know.
So yeah, anything is possible. 100k reservations within the first month, 500k by end of 2016, or 5k in 72 hours and 50k by EOY - and anything in-between.
PS: for all those who post Apple analogies, please consider that it is very different to get into a consumer craze and cam out for a 500 dollar phone than to commit to purchasing a car. The first is more emotional, the second is what people plan and study for months before settling on a option.�
Feb 14, 2016
mark I think it will be enormous - I already want to order two, one for my kids and one my elderly parents. An affordable self driving car for teenagers or the elderly is a mind-blowing prospect that will have unmet demand for a decade. I think they will have >3 years of production reserved before they deliver the first one.�
Feb 17, 2016
cluster Any analysis on the potential reservations for fleet vehicles?
Any incentives for these purchases in US?
It is also interesting to see how M3 is priced in China.�
Feb 17, 2016
EinSV Assuming a compelling design (which seems highly likely), my prediction is 50K reservations by end of April, and 275K by end of 2016 (reviews/publicity for Model X, autopilot, etc. should continue to inspire reservations). Plus many more buyers out there who will wait until after launch to buy instead of putting down a deposit.
Will be interesting to see how Tesla is able to ramp production in 2018 to meet the demand.�
Feb 23, 2016
generalenthu Interesting anecdotal information
Had some interesting info from my local Tesla shop : teslamotors
"I called my local shop (Chicago area) and asked if there was a game plan for March 31st. He said not yet, but should have more info in the coming weeks. I then asked if he has had many inquiries like mine and he said "10-15 a day". I clarified to say not just people asking about the car, but people saying they are ready with their check to get a spot in line. And he reiterated, yes, 10-15 people a day saying they will be in line.Maybe that was the salesman talking, but that is a much stronger indication of demand than I was expecting to hear."�
Feb 24, 2016
Bgarret Nice first post...welcome to the forum.
I test Drove the Model X today....got a little Ludicrous on the West Highway in Manhattan. Talking to my co-pilot, a manager of a New Jersey store, I mentioned I was planning on being at the store in Orlando on the 31st to sign up(spring break). He said interest for day-of reservations for the Model III has been very high.
Should be fun.�
Feb 24, 2016
Familial Rhino Well, of course, it's from all those hedge-fund managers in Manhattan with 200,000 credit cards at-the-ready.�
Feb 24, 2016
Krugerrand Yes, and shareholders who live in the area.�
Feb 24, 2016
Bgarret So young to be so cynical. No more reading Seeking Alpha for you.
:wink:�
Feb 25, 2016
winfield100 you forgot that author on Seeking Alphalfa was also positing that the 13,000+ Tesla employees would also make 10 reservations each for another 130,000+ reservations (He did cover his short finally) I shall reserve 1 in Bethesda, maryland on 3/31 meself�
Feb 26, 2016
dalalsid We need to start threads on the Model 3 forum organizing something for people who plan to be at stores. I'm 50% divided on whether to wait till April 1 or not.�
Feb 26, 2016
nienco2 Naive question. Is the $1,000 deposit refundable or not?�
Feb 26, 2016
Svetlin 100% refundable, until they start building your car. I've heard that sometimes they may take a few weeks to do a refund though... so don't count on it for emergency money.�
Feb 26, 2016
sub I'll be waiting in line and reserving at least 2. It's a 4+ hour round trip for me so I'll be staying the night, hopefully not in line! Planning to make my 14 year old daughter go with me, I'm dropping hints that one is for her. Only reason I would cancel is that I decided to buy a Model X (or a refreshed S) before my number came up.�
Feb 27, 2016
winfield100 i am more concerned about supercharger and autonomous driving, a friend had a ministroke and woke up in the car while driving without wrecking�
Feb 27, 2016
Ampster There is a presumption that it will be refundable based on Model S and X. My Model X deposit was refundable until I configured. You should read the terms and conditions before submitting.�
Mar 1, 2016
MTL_HABS1909 Be prepared to wait in a LONG line. I called the Tesla Store here in Montreal and they are expecting hundreds of people. I can only imagine how many people will camp out in California....�
Mar 7, 2016
duke_of_ev One data point: 2 out of 10 of my coworkers are placing reservation on the first or second day (I'm not one of them). Feel free to extrapolate:biggrin:�
Mar 7, 2016
Cattledog So you're predicting 60 million US reservations. Should help the stock.�
Mar 8, 2016
Gerasimental Always grateful when someone gives me the opportunity to post this:
What do you do for work? What demographic do those co-workers belong to?�
Mar 8, 2016
Lycanthrope Last week I was talking to the guys at the Service Centre here in Brussels and they said that they've been receiving a lot of enquiries from large companies looking to place large fleet orders. This will be replicated across NW Europe. On top of the private buyers I'm thinking 1 million in the first few days...�
Mar 8, 2016
hobbes Love the cartoon - but I think you missed the smiley in the post you quoted.�
Mar 8, 2016
Gerasimental No, I merely forgot to add one of my own
The questions were genuine - of my office of 60+ people in the automotive industry I don't know of anyone that is planning to reserve an M3, and even know that many car enthusiasts don't even know it's coming!�
Mar 8, 2016
hobbes
Not even you considering a Model 3
Getting back to the statistics - I guess the main differentiator between your office and duke_of_ev�s office is that his is in the US (possibly even California) and yours in Germany!�
Mar 8, 2016
Gerasimental You're probably right, that likely is the main difference. Of course there is ONE person in my office who will be wildly refreshing the website on April 1�
Mar 8, 2016
hobbes The way it looks I�ll be on vacation in France trying to convince them to get a German registration on Mar 31. Wonder if this is a good idea...�
Mar 8, 2016
Gerasimental Congrats on 1000th post!
Have you called Tesla to find out if this is possible? That said, the stores don't seem terribly clued up about the mechanics of M3 launch and reservations at the moment.�
Mar 8, 2016
hobbes
Thanks
I guess I�ll call later when it becomes more likely to get an answer. On the other hand, the question might be independent of the Model 3 launch really. If they can take reservations for any EU country for the S, it should be the same for the 3 I guess.�
Mar 8, 2016
duke_of_ev Software developer in California. So I'm part of the most Tesla-obsessed demographic group.�
Apr 1, 2016
duke_of_ev 132K reservations in first 24 hours. WOW.�
Apr 1, 2016
JPWhite It's at 180k now. Seems to be accelerating ludicrously.
Tesla�s Model 3 Electric Car Gets Requests for 180,000 Vehicles on First Day of Ordering�
Apr 1, 2016
Familial Rhino It's a virtual certainty it's over 200k by now. It was at 198k an hour ago.�
Apr 1, 2016
adiggs One way to think about it - if there is 50% dropout (which I think is dramatically too high), and Tesla builds 100k Model 3's in the first full year (2018) of production, then the first year's production is already spoken for. Right now, today, about 24 hours from when the first reservation was taken.
If they then climb to 200k production in 2019, and 400k in 2020, all while producing 100k Model S/X alongside of Model 3, then they meet Tesla's guidance of 500k cars in 2020 (that has mostly been panned as ridiculously over the top).
Meanwhile on the demand side, it looks like if they can ONLY build 100k, 200k, then 400k Model 3, then the first THREE years worth of production will all be spoken for before the first car is delivered.
Or maybe Tesla needs to find a manufacturing plant and start ramping plant #2, and GF #2, approximately today
Another way to think about it. If 35% of cars delivered in the US are 35k and above, and Model 3 (and later derivatives) achieve the same 25% market share that Model S has in it's large luxury sedan segment, then 1/3 of 1/4th sounds to me like 1/12th market share in the US for the Model 3 (and derivatives) when they are 4 or 5 years into delivery. That's more like 1.5M/year demand (1/12th of about 17M vehicles/year), and consistent with 100k/200k/400k/800k/1600k annual deliveries (just for the US). Can Tesla grow annual manufacturing of Model 3 at 100% per year? I suddenly believe the demand supports it.
Oh - and Model S is STILL growing market share in the US. We still don't know what the actual market demand is for Tesla vehicles, at least in the US, because we've never seen the vehicle plateau or drop on an annual basis. Short term fluctuations looks like they have as much to do with incentives expiring, and prioritizing shipments to other markets - not demand limitations.
(Important disclaimer - I think we'll see Model S demand plateau and drop before Model 3 delivers, as most all of the Model S buyers that have never stretched so high for a car, will instead "settle" for a loaded Model 3, and be happy. I believe that Model 3 will prove to be the primary competitor for Model S, and a significant source of substitution for Model S buyers. Meanwhile, Model 3 will be doing what Model S has been doing, and bringing a noticeable number of shoppers from the 10-25k range up into the 35k range.)
I've been suggesting 1M reservations by the time the first Model 3 is delivered. Now I'm thinking I've been grossly low.
I'll be amused if we see the Model 3 competitor market in the US shrink (or grow more slowly than otherwise expected), this year and next, as future buyers in the segment instead decide today to wait. Tesla can start taking market share, in a market they've only shown a concept for�
Apr 1, 2016
Ktowntslafan Additional plant(s) and GF(s), YES!
The Model 3 is super sexy...I'm saying 1M reservations within 30 days. Crazy?
Ktowntslafan on Twitter
![[?IMG]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ce7nhTjW8AAxRS9.jpg)
�
Apr 2, 2016
duke_of_ev 253k as of 7am Saturday. I'm guessing it will reach 400k by Monday.�
Apr 2, 2016
adiggs Do you have a source for that, or are you guessing?�
Apr 2, 2016
adiggs Found it:
Elon Musk on Twitter�
Apr 2, 2016
Fallenone We all failed on this one, utterly.�
Apr 2, 2016
adiggs For sure. i thought I was over the top crazy at 1M reservations by the time the first one delivers. I'm very curious to see what Tesla comes up with to handle this crazy surge in popularity.�
Apr 3, 2016
rdalcanto We were a lot closer than all the "EXPERTS."�
Apr 3, 2016
Footbag 1M is a lofty goal, even still (but wouldn't that be sweet!). I thought 500k before first one is delivered. I'd meet you in the middle at 750k lol.�
Apr 3, 2016
adiggs I agree that 1M is a lofty goal in an absolute sense. It's just that 3 or 4 days worth of reservations have gotten us 30% of the way there. At 10k reservations/day, for most of 2 years, that'd be just about right to reach 1M around the time of first delivery.
Except that we have a phase 2 of the reveal coming .. well sometime. From Elon's tweets, it sounds like they've got a plan to turn the time between now and first delivery into rolling thunder (my interpretation), with plenty of opportunities to keep the car in the media, and then bring it back as it starts to fade into the background. I expect each one of those events to bring along a surge in reservations.
Heck - 500k reservations before 1st delivery would have to be viewed as wild success.�
Apr 3, 2016
MikeC I feel like my prediction here on February 11 is still on track.�
Apr 4, 2016
neroden I'm predicting 600,000 by early may and 2 million by December 31.�
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