Sep 3, 2015
Ronist To make Model 3 less expensive, one of the cost savings is less features. Which features do you think won'tt make it to the Model 3?
Here's my list:
- Heated folding mirrors
- Supercharging�
Sep 4, 2015
Lonnie123 Simply doing the following will reduce cost of car quite a bit:
- Reducing size 20%
- Reducing Battery to ~45-50kWh, along with the gigafactory reducing cost by 30% ( this is HUGE)
- Not using Aluminum
- Reducing motor to ~180hp
Those are really more car basics, but I think almost all of the cost problem is solved there. These are not "features" ... so features I think will be done away with or reduced are:
- Retracting door handles. Might create some flush design, but they wont have the retracting mechanism
- Premium seating / lighting
- Obviously nothing thats not stock on the S (auto pilot, auto parking, camera based stuff mostly)
- No pano roof/moon roof
- Cheaper rims, hub caps
- overall reduction in cost of materials (no expensive interior trim stuff)
I think with all that you are basically down to where you need to be price wise.�
Sep 4, 2015
WarpedOne I say wrong.
The car does not cost as much as it does because of the feature list length but because of the developement and production costs.
Shorter feature list will only shorten the length of customer queue.
Heated folding mirrors costs under $50 for tesla, they would be crazy not to offer them standard. They will have to include all standard features in 35k cars to not be laughed at as 'not-real-car'.
By far the biggest price spec item will be battery. So, the right way to do it is to optimize everything else so the car gets to 240 EPA with as few kWh as possible. But still offering seating for 5 adults (well, usual 4 + 1).
Battery will still need to be ~60kWh to get to EPA240m. What they can do is streamline the production some more and offer less variability in options.
Oh, and they will include some real aero-wheels
�
Sep 4, 2015
Theshadows IMO the 17" will not be there. Probably an iPad size or possibly a 13" screen.
Autopilot will be there. Iirc Elon said all tesla cars will have it.
Slacker might not be there.
To compete with the 3 series and C class the trim will have to be available. Perhaps a no trim option that is upgradable.
I think pano needs to be an option.
AL and stainless steel body/frame is a must. That is an absolute if you want to make million mile cars. In the north eastern US when you tell someone "this car will never rust" they give you a weird look which you then have to follow up with the explanation.
Now for what I think will be removed
No auto closing charge port.
No Rear heated seats
No jump seats
No adjustable air suspension
No fancy spoiler like the MX has.�
Sep 4, 2015
robatbeach Supercharger will absolutely be there. Removing it breaks the vision of EVs being able to make ICEs into fossils. The vision is a mid cost car that replaces the need to have any ICE in the typical house and proves why ICE "training wheels" in the hybrid model aren't needed. Removing supercharging sounds like a move a different mgt team would make if Tesla was bought.�
Sep 4, 2015
Yggdrasill I think there will be a lot of equipment available as optional extras, but the standard model will be something like this:
- 5 seats, standard textile seats in front, bench seat in back which fold flat capability.
- ~200 hp, with 0-60 mph in 6-7 seconds.
- 15" LCD touch display, with all controls except steering wheel controls
- LCD screens for power, speed, etc.
- Regular doors with regular door handles (though aerodynamic)
- 240 mile EPA range (~60 kWh)
- 10 kW charger (11 kw in europe)
- Supercharger enabled, but limited useage, 10 times per year or something similar.
- Equipped with AEB, ESP, ABS, TC, CC, seat belt warnings, etc.
The options will be more fun.
- Upgraded battery with 310 miles EPA range (~80 kWh), includes unlimited long distance use of superchargers
- Dual motor AWD with ~400 hp, possibly performance edition with ~550 hp
- Leather seats, panorama roof, other tires/rims, etc
- GPS navigation
- Autopilot
- Air suspension
- Tow package (Maybe not, but would be very popular in Norway.)
- Sound System
- Winter package�
Sep 4, 2015
Bangor Bob 27% gross margin and much less of the enormous sense of entitlement a very few S owners have?
At projected gigafactory costs, a 60kWh-ish battery will cost around $6k for the cells, plus whatever the highly-automated assembly into a pack cost/amortizes down to. That's an absolute game-changer - getting into the cost territory of a high-end ICE.
I can see cheaper base-model interior materials. I can see cooled and n-way power adjustable seats being upsell options. Likewise "premium" data connectivity (streaming audio and web access) being subscription-based.
What I don't see is Tesla excluding access to one of their major competitive advantages, being the Supercharger network. I can almost see "n kWh of Supercharging per year included, excess kWh billed at $0.0x/kWh" to prevent abuse like the Schipol taxis, but beyond that? Difficult to see is the future, always in motion... [/Yoda]�
Sep 4, 2015
djplong Why is it that people keep thinking supercharger access won't be there? Elon has said, time and time again, that it WILL be there for everything they're making now and in the future.�
Sep 4, 2015
ratsbew I think that the $35,000 base model will indeed be a "base" model. I think we'll still get the large touch screen and digital dash because those types of things aren't expensive (maybe cheaper than mechanical buttons & gauges).
$5,000 in options will get you up to a nice RWD version. Price will probably go up to $55-60,000 on the high end.
My parents will most likely be getting the base AWD car and I'm aiming for $50,000.�
Sep 4, 2015
WarpedOne It wont be included in the base price, it will be an option as it was with S60.�
Sep 4, 2015
apacheguy Not using aluminum is going to increase the weight quite a bit and have a significant range impact. I don't see how they'll get above the 200 mi rated range target.�
Sep 4, 2015
Yggdrasill I don't think so, it was included with the 70 and 70D because the 60 just wasn't selling. It makes a lot more sense to include a reduced Supercharger access in the base price, and include unlimited access with the larger battery as well as have it as an option for those with the smaller battery.
You could have an allowance for a given number of supercharger sessions (maybe 10) or charged kWh (maybe 400 kWh) per year, and if you wish to exceed this allowance you then need to pay $1000 for the unlimited access. Something along those lines, at least. This way most people who get the smaller battery won't get the supercharger access at first, but once they realize how great it is, and wish to use it more, they pay Tesla for the access.�
Sep 4, 2015
Yggdrasill Or a solution that's even easier to manage: Included unlimited supercharger access for 3 years, then you need to pay $1000 for access.�
Sep 4, 2015
GregRF Get rid of charger all together, use rear motor PEM for charging duties.�
Sep 4, 2015
Yggdrasill That's certianly a possibility. Though I think Tesla is more likely to just improve on their current charger and use that. They've probably made close to 100k of these chargers, so they have a lot of experience with them.�
Sep 4, 2015
tga Didn't they drop that strategy on later Roadsters to work around the AC Propulsion patents? I think they'd be on the hook for license fees if they go back to it.
If the X comes with a single 15kW charger (as was rumored), maybe they'll use that.�
Sep 4, 2015
apacheguy Can you explain what you mean by this?�
Sep 4, 2015
MiamiNole As someone before me indicated, I'd expect the Model 3 to at least come with the same standard features as any other entry-level luxury car. I'd also expect access to the super charger network as that's one of the biggest selling and marketing points OF owning a Tesla, from what I've seen. It personally wouldn't be a deal breaker for me, but from what I've seen just from browsing the forums, let alone talk around me, lack of extended range and/or super charger network access would definitely be deal breakers for a good chunk of prospective buyers.�
Sep 4, 2015
wallet.dat Not sure how reducing the motor to 180hp would reduce cost. All they'd have to do is diminish the power going into the motor via software. These aren't ICE powerplants we're talking about, where making a lot of power requires semi-exotic, expensive materials. I agree on most everything else you listed though.�
Sep 4, 2015
igotzzoom To me, hubcaps scream "cheap." The only reason I could see them on the Model 3 or any other EV is for aerodynamic or efficiency-enhancing reasons. If they serve a justifiable purpose, then that's understandable, but if the only purpose is cost-cutting, I think that would detract from the premium image Tesla is trying to maintain. I think flush-mounted (but not power-retracting) door handles are likely. In terms of power output, I don't know how much would be saved by going with a 180 hp vs. 250 hp motor. Other than a slight difference in material costs, I don't see the big savings. The output could be modulated by software. Maybe limit to 180 hp (134 kW) in "Eco" mode, and give the full 250 hp in "Performance" mode.�
Sep 4, 2015
Lonnie123 Smaller motor = lower cost, right?
If they are trying to keep their margins high, shaving every little bit of expense here and there will make a big difference. If they can save $50-100 on every single motor x 500,000 a year... It isnt a trivial cost.
I am no electrician/mechanic so I am purely speculating and maybe the cost difference is totally negligible. But for someone coming from a Corolla, jumping up to a 180hp motor would be an amazing increase. If it meant getting the car for cheaper I would certainly opt for a smaller motor.
The tesla's will have tons of upgrades and options... There could easily be a base motor, then a P verison, then a D verison, then a PD version for those who have the need for speed. Why not start with a competitive motor (3 series starts at about 180 if I remember right) and then allow for upgrades?
- - - Updated - - -
To me Rims scream "Expensive" and massively unnecessary. The ultimate in vanity... You are paying hundreds/thousands to get a certain look with no added functionality. To each their own, but I would be perfectly fine with an "Electric Corolla" for the Model 3.
Getting the car down to $35k will require shaving small amounts of costs here and there. Aside from the big things I wrote in my first list, shaving $50-100 in 10-20 different areas is going to go a long way in doing that.
- - - Updated - - -
I believe Elon said the 3 will not be made out of aluminum, but perhaps some kind of alloy. Make what you will out of that�
Sep 4, 2015
GregRF Ahh, I was not aware they had tried, nor about the patents. Thanks for the info.
During regen the motor power electronics rectify the AC power from the motor (acting as generator) to DC to charge the battery. This is what the stand alone battery charger does but uses AC power from the socket. So with a few modifications (wiring and switches) the PEM could do both. So with a small upgrade to the PEM you can save the cost of the stand alone charger and its wiring and cooling loops.�
Sep 4, 2015
apacheguy @Greg - If it is indeed that simple then why don't any EVs implement this technology?�
Sep 4, 2015
mzpolo To bring cost down, they have to use the same parts that are already being used. don't reinvent the wheel. The smaller of the available motors for S and X (front back as well) will be used on the 3 based on this. Money will be saved in the battery supply chain. this will be the majority of the cost savings from the standard S. The base car will be a base S just a different frame and body (smaller). The 3 will scale to the S as far as battery goes, with the 3 dropping rows (?) of cells to account for the smaller length available when compared to the S. From there, all the others "stuff" will be options.
Supercharging will very definitely be available and not restricted. For mass appeal, that will always be available and stay free.�
Sep 4, 2015
wallet.dat It's already been stated that the Model 3 will use an iteration of the front motor from the Model S, and that unit already makes 259hp. It would cost almost nothing to cripple it at 180hp, but if it's to be competitive with the BMW 3-series (an assertion that I think many people tend to forget), then why?
I believe (hope?) that the Model 3 will be much less an attempt by Tesla to keep up with the Joneses, as it will be Tesla forcing the rest of the industry to keep up with the Kardashians.�
Sep 4, 2015
Theshadows Supply chain is right on. Keeping a limited number of parts being made in the factory is way more lean than offering a cheap stripped down base model with custom this and custom that. This is why all cars being made are shipped with autopilot even if you didn't pay for it. Keep the factory lean is of utmost importance.
Supercharging is a must. It could be possible that it's not active on the base model like the S60 but could be purchased.
I was just talking with another Tesla owner yesterday about my concerns with the current supercharger network when the 3 rolls out. I'm actually concerned about it in 1 year with 40-50k MX being out there and another 50k MS. Some of the Chargers get queued up now.
I had to hypermile to the King of Prussia mall this weekend to get an hour of charge to make it to a supercharger that was 30 miles out of the way of my final destination because Tesla has been struggling for over a year now to get a charger in Allentown or Harrisburg. Early adopters will put up with this (barely) but the masses will not. Station density needs to be massively increased and the existing stations need to be expanded, which isn't a simple task when you are talking 120-150kw per station. Tesla is going to have to start opening/ expanding one supercharger per day just in the USA to get us ready for a 2017 roll out.
I don't really see the existing model working that offers free charging for the masses. They may start charging a small per kw fee. This is actually what I thought the battery swap would address. Queue up for free or pay $40 and be on your way. This would be acceptable to most people I believe. However the 3 will have to have a physically smaller pack size making it more difficult, so maybe they have already figured this out. I don't know, but there is a charging issue that will need addressed within 2 years.�
Sep 4, 2015
nwdiver Agreed; Tesla has shown this by including 'options' in cars when they 'aren't there'; Like supercharging and auto pilot. Tesla put both of these in every car built to keep production lean... even if the end customer didn't want/pay for them. The expense of adding them to cars even when they weren't paid for was apparently made up for by streamlining the other vehicles.
I'd love to see stats on local use of superchargers... I wonder how much of the congestion could be cleared up by limiting SC use within range of your home...�
Sep 4, 2015
tga To avoid paying license fees to AC Propulsion, I'd assume.
AC Propulsion | Creating electric vehicles that people want to drive�
Sep 4, 2015
No2DinosaurFuel Smaller motors doesnt necessarily lpwer cost. I think what tesla would do is use as much parts from the model s as possible to reduce development and test cost.
My guess is they will use whatever is in the 85d right now in terms of power train. Battery cost reduction will be achieved via giga factory and maybe lower reduced capacity. But even that is speculation. Again going back to keeping everything the same to reduce development and test cost.�
Sep 4, 2015
Lonnie123 Good replies. I seem to remember Tesla having a 189hp Front motor on one of the cars... can't find it now. But I agree with you all now that they will likely use whatever motor they are currently producing in the 3
edit: Looking around a bit all I could find is that maybe they used to have a 188hp front motor on the 85D, but its now 259.�
Sep 4, 2015
vinnie97 Based on previous model purchasing, I assume the design studio choices are strictly modular (i.e. if the only advanced feature you want is the biggest battery pack, you can choose it and bypass all the other additional features)? I don't really have particularly demanding winter driving needs, and I suspect AWD/RWD won't represent a huge difference in range.�
Sep 4, 2015
gregincal You may be, but I'm not paying 35-45K for a Corolla, electric or not, and I'm sure I'm not alone. The Model 3 has to be able to compete with other 35-45K cars.�
Sep 4, 2015
Lonnie123 I have no doubt you are not alone, and it is likely me that is in the minority.
I also understand that there is, for the time being, an "early adopter tax" for getting EV's off the ground, and also further cost increases from buying from a smaller company like Tesla. Tesla isnt making "a car", its "an electric car" and with that comes certain concessions you must make (again, for the time being).
There is a very good reason that the main gripe with the S is that the fit and finish is not up to par with other $70-90k cars... Because it costs them more to make "the car", not to mention they dont have the economy of scale that the competing manufacturers have (yet). So the amenities and luxuries suffer as a result. Its still an amazing car, but its more in line with interiors of cars that cost much less, which is to be expected I would think.
I had thought this would be more readily apparent (that the product Tesla makes is inherently more expensive for the time being), but it seems that it isn't.�
Sep 4, 2015
davidc18 Has there been any discussion on the need to greatly increase the density of the superchargers if the 3 is ever to be acceptable to the masses? I've seen it mentioned briefly several times, but nothing more in depth.�
Sep 4, 2015
Lonnie123 Ad nauseam online, nothing official by Tesla.�
Sep 4, 2015
ratsbew I'd be happy with 180hp. The great thing about electrics is you can mash the pedal and actually use that power without it sounding like your engine is going to blow up.
In my current car I shift at 2000 RPM which means I'm only using about 35 horsepower to accelerate. 180 would be like ludicrous mode to me!�
Sep 4, 2015
ryanjm I feel like I have to channel Red Sage here and say:
Remember, the Model 3, like Tesla's other cars, has to be so good that it absolutely blows away similarly priced ICE cars. That's the battle that Elon and Tesla have in getting people over to EVs. So while, yes, the 3 may not have all of the amenities and features the S has (though I expect nearly all of them to be available as options), expect it to blow the BMW 3 series out of the water in the performance department and everything else.
17" touchscreen? Maybe not 17", but probably not smaller than 15" for usability's sake.
Panoramic roof? Not standard, but probably an option.
Auto-presenting door handles? Maybe not standard, but probably an option. Though with economies of scale and all of the investment Tesla has put into reliably redesigning them, I also wouldn't be surprised if they DO end up standard. They are kind of a signature Tesla element, like, say, the analog clocks in the center of every Infiniti's dashboard.
Performance? It'll move even for $35, with obvious performance package and AWD options making it a monster at the top end.
Wheels? Of course.
Autopilot? You guys have covered this: included in every car but a paid option to unlock.
Supercharging? I believe Elon is already on record saying that all 3s will have it. As others have noted, it's a key Tesla advantage and also key to alleviating the range anxiety of the average consumer who will be buying their first EV.
Just my $0.02.�
Sep 4, 2015
Pete90D Is the $35k after the tax credit and gas savings? The base S70 is $52k after incentives.
Reducing the size of the car will help, and there are probably some components that are more costly than others, but a number of features shouldn't cost that much. Also, the volume a $35k car will create should decrease costs of a lot of parts. I think there are a lot of features on the car that probably don't cost much more than producing a version without it. I was talking to someone from Tesla once and they mentioned how the S40 had the 60kwh pack simply because it was cheaper for Tesla to produce a uniform pack size than have to create a variant. So you'll probably see the same.
Things like door handles, autopilot, wheels, lighting, leather vs textile, etc, don't change based on the size of the car. Pano roof, screen size, seats, dash, etc, these change based on the size of the car, and therefore require new tooling to build them. Similar to the battery. If the weight and performance of the car decreases you'll probably also see a decrease in brake size, which if you look at aftermarket BBKs can cost a lot of money.
Honestly I don't think Tesla is going to compromise that much on quality to reduce the price of the car. The base 3-series is 33k and the base 5-series is 50k so you're probably looking at a similar set of variations combined with reduced cost of materials (via mass production) to get it down to $35k. I bet a lot of the premium features will be available if you pay for it. It helps reduce MS/MX costs if they can produce more of the same parts or purchase more of the same material.
It is not correct that they add no functionality. On the PxxD models you are getting staggered wheels, which improve cornering ability. Low profile tires will handle better in turns than a big fat tire will and will also warm up faster because there is less rubber. In regular cars where brakes are smaller, having larger wheels allows you to upgrade to larger rotors. There are of course downsides to larger wheels, but there are valid reasons for purchasing larger wheels that extend beyond appearance.�
Sep 4, 2015
MsElectric The Model 3 will be designed to compete with the BMW 3-series, Mercedes C Class, and the Audi A4. Ever been in one of those cars lately? We recently had a brand new C Class loaner when one of our cars went in for service and I was really impressed with the interior along with all the features in the car.
Reduce complexity, yes, but I don't think Elon or anyone at Tesla has ever said the Model 3 will have less features to save money. What they've all said is that the savings will come from the reduction of overall size and efficiencies of scale.
For reference, this is what the Model 3 will be competing with (note the copious features) and 3 years from now when the Model comes out the bar might be raised even a bit more:
http://www.mbusa.com/vcm/MB/DigitalAssets/pdfmb/brochures/MY15_C-Class_Sedan_093014.pdf�
Sep 4, 2015
anticitizen13.7 I'm predicting that Model 3 will actually have more features available than today's Model S, and that the base-level Model 3 will be as well or better equipped than today's base-level Model S.
Why?
(1) As others stated, Model 3 has to compete with BMW 3, Mercedes C-class, and others. These competitors can all be had with very high levels of equipment. Tesla has to make something better than the competition in order to convince mainstream customers to switch from ICE automobiles to EVs.
(2) Technology becomes less expensive over time with improved production technology and economies of scale. That 17" LCD panel might be expensive today, but what will it cost in 2 years and at an order of magnitude higher production volume rate? It's the same principle that should drive down the cost of batteries significantly. Everything from rolls of aluminum to motors and reduction gears costs less per unit when acquired in higher volume.
There is one caveat: Supercharging.
I am very unsure that Tesla's Supercharging network will be able to sustain free long-distance travel when the company is shipping hundreds of thousands of units/year. I believe that at a certain point, Tesla will have to collect a small parking fee per unit time at a Supercharger stall for vehicles manufactured after a certain date.�
Sep 4, 2015
EVNow Musk has already stated 3 will have "free for life" SC. It is possible the base 3 will not have SC access - which can be purchased for $2k or so.
But, what Tesla will do is put terms into SC that limits excessive use (just like broadband providers do today).�
Sep 4, 2015
Skotty Supercharging is a must, but it's reasonable to consider it not being free for Model 3. First, with the greater quantity of Model 3s there will likely be, there may need to be additional incentive for owners not to leech off of Superchargers when they don't have to. Second, everyone says the Superchargers aren't free, and that the cost is built into the price of the Model S. Well then there's a super easy opportunity to bring the base purchase price down -- stop building in extra cost for expected Supercharger use. Ideally, there would be an option to be billed for what you use; this would keep the upfront purchase price down while still allowing Supercharger use.�
Sep 4, 2015
LargeHamCollider I don't think the feature set of the 3 should be compared to other 35-45k cars, the figure of merit wrt vehicle "class" should be total cost of ownership. M3 should be compared to 25-35k cars. I understand most won't see it this way but they are mistaken. Total cost is what counts (or to be exact net present value of all expected costs is what counts), not just up front cost.�
Sep 4, 2015
EVNow You are assuming time has no value. Atleast use NPV when comparing.
In anycase, 3 can't be compared to Corolla. Musk has repeatedly said the target is BMW 3 (class) buyers. So, 3 should compete with BMW 3 series on features.
On topic, 3 I think will have most of the features of S - but base 3 may not have all features of base S.�
Sep 4, 2015
LargeHamCollider I actually edited my post to reflect this before I saw your reply, as an example a 70k MS shouldn't be shopped against a 70k BMW but against a 60k BMW because these represent roughly equal financial commitments.�
Sep 4, 2015
anticitizen13.7 This is actually a good point.
Many Model S owners were willing to pay substantially more $ for a Model S than any ICE, because of low energy costs (as well as the newest and best technology). I have believed for some time that Model 3 has the potential to steal not just BMW 3 and Mercedes C-class sales, but Honda Accord and Toyota Camry sales as well.
That being said, even a mainstream vehicle like the Honda Accord can come with a pretty serious level of equipment in higher trim levels. As a general trend, there's actually a convergence between mainstream and luxury vehicles as far as tech toys. For example, Hondas and Acuras (Acura being Honda Motor Co's luxury division) have less and less difference in features and electronics with each successive generation. The differentiation between mainstream and luxury is more IMO about things like paint quality, interior materials & design, chassis tuning, and sound dampening (noise, vibration, harshness).�
Sep 4, 2015
LargeHamCollider Agreed, but we can take this even further for the first purchasers (who I believe will qualify for the 7.5k tax credit)
35k - 10k fuel savings -7.5k tax credit = 17.5k ICE equivalent.
Pardon me for shouting but THIS IS AN INSANE VALUE PROPOSITION!!
Which is why I will be mashing F5 during the March event and reserving an M3 or two as soon as possible.�
Sep 4, 2015
Bangor Bob Alloy wheels generally save a couple pounds per wheel vs. steel. That's unsprung weight which makes a big difference in your suspension tuning and actually lets you use smaller dampers and softer springs, which offsets some of the cost.
Alloys at retail aren't that expensive - "crap" ones can be purchased for $400 a set. An order of 100,000 sets per year will see a significant discount from that, or a quality upgrade at the same price.
They're also standard equipment on cars at a $35k price point. Perhaps some of you guys are designing the $20k or $15k model?�
Sep 4, 2015
Ronist
The sad reality is the interior of Model S today can't compete very well with other ICE car of its class, such as the Audi A7 or Mercedes S. Tesla is cutting edge in terms of technology but craftsmanship still has room to go.
Also check out this interview with Elon at 2:56 where he pretty said Model 3 will not have as many features:
Elon Musk on smart roads, Tesla and much more (2014) - YouTube�
Sep 5, 2015
vinnie97 Can anyone help out a Tesla noob?�
Sep 5, 2015
stopcrazypp On the whole topic of competitors. The fit and finish of the S does not quite get to cars of the same price level, however, it looks the part and is clearly in the "premium" segment. While the Model 3 will likely not match the 3 series everywhere, it'll fit well in the segment.
It will not just be a "Corolla" in terms of its market. Hubcap steel wheels stand out as something decidedly not premium and is unlikely to make an appearance. Even the cheapest premium car on the market today, the Buick Verano at $21k comes with 17 inch aluminum wheels.�
Sep 5, 2015
WarpedOne Regarding what exactly?
AWD range will be ~same as RWD range (maybe even a bit higher or a tiny bit lower).
Option bundling is up to time to disclose but expect bundling and only the most expensive options will be there as singletons (bigger battery, front motor, maybe glass roof).
Regarding 17" display, I expect a smaller screen, not because of price (it is cheap) but because of space. M3 will be narrower and 17" could eat away to much space. A wide aspect ratio 15" screen is about and inch narrower and thus better suited. I don't expect tesla would go with even smaller screen, it is their hallmark of interior design so they will use as big screen as they can fit.�
Sep 5, 2015
Yggdrasill I would be very surprised if Tesla changed this. They will probably bundle some options into various packages, but in all likelihood, Tesla will still configure cars to order. My expectation is that Tesla will probably try to keep the options list to a minimum, though, something like this:
Versions:
- 60 kWh RWD Model 3: 34,900 USD
- 60 kWh AWD Model 3: 38,900 USD
- 80 kWh RWD Model 3: 39,900 USD
- 80 kWh AWD Model 3: 43,900 USD
- 80 kWh AWD performance Model 3: 53,900 USD (might not be introduced at launch)
Options:
- Upgraded tires/rims: 1,000 USD
- Panorama roof: 1,000 USD
- Metallic paint: 750 USD
- Premium interior (includes free choice of trim, better seats with leather and memory, automatic extending door handles, etc.): 4,000 USD
- For 60 kWh versions, unlimited supercharger access: 1,000 USD
- Premium Sound System: 1,500 USD
- Tech package (autopilot, GPS navigation, etc): 2,500 USD
- Air suspension: 1,500 USD
- Winter package: 750 USD
Something like this means that you can get a very reasonable Model 3 for 34,900 USD, where Tesla makes almost no (<5%) profit, but a well optioned Model 3 can cost 66,900 USD, where Tesla can have a 25% profit.�
Sep 5, 2015
vinnie97 Thank, Ygg. Warped, it seems the RWD/AWD mileage will indeed be negligible as far as differences (and handling will be the biggest benefactor for AWD...correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the AWD option affords slightly more range on the Model S?), but my main question was how we might expect the options to be bundled. Ygg's hypothetical itemization makes sense. That 80 kWh RWD option is screaming at me.�
Sep 5, 2015
Yggdrasill AWD will also increase performance significantly. I'm thinking it will be something like this:
- 60 kWh RWD Model 3, ~200 hp, 0-60 mph in ~6 seconds
- 60 kWh AWD Model 3, ~400 hp, 0-60 mph in ~4 seconds
- 80 kWh RWD Model 3, ~200 hp, 0-60 mph in ~7 seconds (more weight, motor limited)
- 80 kWh AWD Model 3, ~400 hp, 0-60 mph in ~3.5 seconds
- 80 kWh AWD performance Model 3, ~550 hp, 0-60 mph in ~2.7 seconds�
Sep 5, 2015
Theshadows I know that this is a speculation thread. However I'm not sure we can even begin to speculate what the pack sizes will be.
This is 2-3 years from now and Tesla will have an factory that isn't operational today. We already have had one density increase, another one is probably not too far away. I feel that the gigafactory will also offer a density increase.
The form factor will also have to be different. The 3 can not be a car that is so wide that when parallel parked 1/4" from the curb the outside wheels extend over the parking lines.
I think with these factors it is pretty difficult to assume what the pack sizes will be.�
Sep 5, 2015
Yggdrasill We know the approximate target range and the rough size of the Model 3. These are the only two things needed to make a somewhat accurate battery size estimate. I think 60/80 won't be far off, but obviously we won't know the exact battery sizes until Tesla releases this information.�
Sep 5, 2015
ratsbew I firmly believe that Model 3 should be pay per kWh when supercharging. There is too much room for abuse of the supercharger system if it is free. I also believe that there should be something like 12-24 free (1-2MWh/year) supercharges per year which is enough to cover several road trips per year and thus keep Supercharging "free".�
Sep 5, 2015
78Lion Software can most definitely turn off or charge a fee for supercharging for those that abuse. While the letter sent already didn't use very good logic to determine distribution, big brother knows every time you charge. Rather than just not allow or charge for access based on class, it's much better to target abusers. Tesla gets the benefit of marketing free access which overcomes a huge obstacle, yet not pay for everybody's juice.�
Sep 5, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Yes, the Model 3 and Y will lack conventional looks in order to improve aerodynamics so that the power and battery capacity can be lowered on the base model. Some will call it a weirdmobile, but many will not care, and lots will love it.�
Sep 5, 2015
S'toon I'm puzzled by the "need" for folding mirrors. I go on my morning walk, and I see only one truck which as folding mirrors, and I think to myself "Why does anybody need that?"�
Sep 5, 2015
Pete90D I have a small garage and it makes it a lot easier to get around the car with them folded in. Also at work, the spots are tight, and I feel a little better about someone not hitting them when I see them tucked in.�
Sep 5, 2015
Krugerrand Agree. No folding mirrors required, perhaps an option. People need to remember the Model 3 is going to be a smaller car than the S so the need for mirrors to fold becomes less of an issue.�
Sep 5, 2015
EVNow The "$10k" saving is very subjective. Depends on a ton of things (miles you drive, discount rate, future oil prices).
BTW, TCO is not a new concept. You need to account for all things like insurance (higher for pricier vehicles) etc. But this kind of calculated decision is mostly made by businesses and not individuals. Individuals mostly make emotional decisions and justify that anyway they can (including TCO, if that helps).�
Sep 5, 2015
BrianC If you click the "learn more" next to that claim it also says for a car that only does 20mpg and at 3.90 premium gas. It is currently around $2.00 per gallon in the Cleveland area for regular (you know, the kind 95% of people use to fill up).
IMO they need to do away with putting the "savings" into the price on the website. It just reminds me to shady car dealers trying to trick people into thinking they are getting a great "deal".�
Sep 5, 2015
Evbwcaer Can you guys explain to me why you think the Model 3 needs to compete with the BMW 3 Series, Audi A4 type of car?
As has always been the case, people buying EV's look at total cost of ownership. I think a 70D competes with a 3 Series, and Model 3 buyers are going to be Prius, Subaru, Civic/Accord type buyers. Take the Prius for example, I think it is pretty safe to assume a vast majority of Prius owners would love an EV if the price and range/capability proposition was compelling. The Model 3 should offer a better car for less money than a Prius, total cost (aka actual cost, real cost) considered. I think Prius buyers, and many Honda buyers, are making this more comprehensive, deliberate buying decision
It is not just a thought exercise, because if you are fighting for Prius buyers you can have 14" steel wheels, a fairly spartan interior, limited base options, etc.
It also matters for the drive axle. I always assumed the Model 3 would be front wheel drive....pictured a Honda Civic with a 50kwh battery basically.�
Sep 5, 2015
LargeHamCollider Of course I'm not claiming this is a new concept, and of course 10k is a ballpark figure... and this individual is getting emotional about the M3's TCO:tongue:�
Sep 5, 2015
David_Cary I'm always amazed at the optimism expressed on these threads. Tesla magic.
There are attractive hubcaps.
$35k with a 200 mile range is hard. With profit at least. It probably costs $60k for Tesla to make a 70RWD today. The margins listed are average and we all know those are propped up by options. So the cost needs to be 50% less. Even if the battery is 40% less because 30% from gigafactory and 10% because it is a 60 kwh batttery, the rest of the car needs to be 60% less.
60% less means smaller rims/tires. Cheaper thinner paint - if you can imagine. Smaller brakes. AND less features.
500k units does save cost but when they start, it won't be 500k units a year. They can't cash burn that much. They already burn cash pretty fast and a market pullback will make it hard to keep burning at the rate they do.�
Sep 5, 2015
EVNow I expect absolute base 3 to have little margin at $35k. This is similar to most models - the base has low margin. I doubt Nissan makes much money with the $28k base Leaf. But unlike Nissan Tesla has to generate positive cash flow with every sales. Average 3 price is likely $45k or higher. This is where Tesla makes money.
If we take base BMW 3 and subtract ICE drive train, add battery and EV drive train it will cost more than $35k. So, I think Tesla may not be able to match BMW or Audi in terms of trim features. But they can offer things they can't.�
Sep 5, 2015
gregincal Well first of all, Tesla has stated numerous times that they expect the Model 3 to compete with the BMW 3 series, so we're not making it up out of thin air. So which do you think would sell better, a 35-45K car that competes with a 3 series or one that only competes with a Prius? There might be some people like you say and it would sell OK, but if it's a car people emotionally really want that's when it sells like hotcakes.
- - - Updated - - -
Exactly. And since they will probably be selling about 10% of their cars at 35K and have an average selling price of more like 40-45K, that gives a bit more room for profit margins.�
Sep 5, 2015
EVNow There are all kinds of Prius buyers. Most initial buyers bought Prius of environmental benefits. Similar to initial buyers of Leaf. These are the ones likely to get 3.
The ones who bought Prius or Leaf to save money would be difficult to convert. At least initially - since they are not pioneers and will not take financial risks.�
Sep 5, 2015
Theshadows Exactly. If I remember correctly the number one trade in for a Tesla Model S is a Prius. Can't find the reference though so my memory might be wrong.
This thread is worth a look though if you are interested in what we early adopters traded in. Personally we paid way more for our Tesla than any other car we ever bought. Even after 10 years ago I swore I would never buy a new car again.
New Owners: What was your last car? How much more was the MS than that car?�
Sep 5, 2015
Pete90D I would say because Tesla is probably hoping to get more pure ICE owners in the $35k range to jump ship. People that own Prii already understand the benefits of electric cars, but creating an affordable and attractive purely electric car will bring in more people. There are some people, including myself, that didn't do any TCO analysis when they bought their Tesla.
I don't agree that the 70D ($75k) competes with the 3 series ($35k). For one it is much larger (up to 20" longer, and 7" wider), which is more inline with the 5 series. After incentives the 70D is ~$52k, which is the base price for a 5 series. For a lot of people, even financing over 6yrs, the jump from $35k to $52k is substantial and car size alone is a big factor for a lot of people, both of which contribute to all the 3-series/C-class I see.
Total cost of ownership isn't always the best way to look at it because while in the long run it may be cheaper, it's the in your face cost that is what makes or breaks a purchase for a lot of people. If you finance $75k over 6 years @ 2%, you're looking at an $1100 payment, which is $300/mo more than a $55k loan. Even if you dumped the $7500 and gas savings directly into the loan, the payment doesn't go down to what it would be for $52k, it only shortens the life of the loan. Sure, you might save $350/mo in gas, which would make it a better deal, but if something bad happens, you can't save $300/mo by taking public transportation or carpooling... you're stuck with the payment.�
Sep 5, 2015
ProphetM As Bangor Bob mentioned, alloy wheels are usually lighter, from less than a pound up to several pounds.
But besides that, even Corollas come with alloy wheels. And that's not new - our 2008 Toyota Matrix (a Corolla wagon) came with alloys. I looked just now and 2/3 of the current Corolla models come with alloys. Only the most basic models, $19k and under, come with steel wheels. Even 2 of the 4 Yaris models come with alloys. Only the base Camry comes with steel (alloys are optional), and the Sienna minivan is no longer available with steel wheels at all.
Alloys aren't just premium anymore - they're expected now, for everything but the most basic of rides. I'd be extremely surprised if any trim level of the 3 has steel wheels.
Personally I don't care all that much, but as an economy car driver I have come to appreciate alloys for the lighter weight and the fact that I don't have to deal with wheel covers. They break, they can be hard to put on properly, and if you lose one (which is pretty common) the OEMs are costly to replace.�
Sep 5, 2015
Lonnie123 As a current owner of the special-edition 3 Hubcap Corolla, you make good points.
I doubt they will go hub caps, it was just on my "list of things they might do to save every last dollar before you can purchase upgrades"�
Sep 5, 2015
stopcrazypp I should point out the failures of the American car companies (GM, Chrysler, and almost Ford) was aggressive cost-cutting in a way that lowered perceived value. It took them a long time to climb out of that. While Tesla obviously will have to lower the amount of features, they will need to do it in a way that maintains the perception that a Tesla is a premium vehicle.�
Sep 6, 2015
EVNow What Tesla will do is to look Base BMW/Audi features and try to put most of that in base 3. A few differences are likely - esp. if the perceived value is low.
Also, as a challenger, Tesla has to do one up on BMW / Audi base in some ways. May be that large LCD is one - and some software features (with zero marginal cost ).�
Sep 6, 2015
Lonnie123 Couldn't one argue that the "one up" is the electric drive train with super charger access? As far as I know, There is simply no economical way for them to make a "better" car WITH the electric capabilities that is priced exactly the same at this time. Part of the value from the car is coming from the gas savings and reliability of the AC motor. (and intangible environmental impact)�
Sep 6, 2015
Lobstahz Aside from the well known selling points (AC motors, all electrics, performance, better TCO, etc) one that I think many overlook but I don't know if any other car has the ability to legitimately precool and prewarm. Many cars can be fitted with autostart, which, if you leave the heat/AC on when you leave the car can get a bit of that experience. But you need to be within a certain range, not a smart idea to do that in a closed garage, etc, overall not a great solution. I'm sure many on these boards have a nest (or other smart thermostat) and enjoy never having to come home to a cold/hot house. It's amazing, and I can't wait to do the same thing with my car.�
Sep 6, 2015
EVNow Sure, there are things that can be highlighted that can attract buyers connected with evs. Question is how do you market these features that would be attractive to low end BMW/Audi buyers ?
Certainly better 0-60 timing would be one. Some of them might even be willing to do more than pay lip service to climate change issues. Is that a 500k cars a year market ?
BTW, SC access is only a USP vs other EVs. Apart from the free aspect of it (which many here argue should be removed for 3) it is not better than the existing gas refueling infrastructure - in terms of speed or coverage. It won't be for a long, long time.�
Sep 6, 2015
wdolson I suspect the fully loaded Model 3 will have most if not all the features of the Model S and X, but the base model might have a few less features than those cars base models have. The base model is not going to be positioned to compete directly with German luxury cars, it's going to be positioned for those being upsold from a Fusion, Camry, or Malibu. If you look at surveys of Model S owners, something like 60% of them had a car that sold for less than $50,000 before they bought the S. Tesla has a large number of people out there who want a Tesla for various reasons and are willing to pay more for it than any car they've ever conceived of owning. I saw it first hand at a party about a month ago. I hadn't mentioned Tesla, but someone else brought it up and the only person there who didn't want a Tesla was the only one who had a household income where she could afford a Model S. One friend drives a very beat up Ford Focus and said she either wants to keep driving beaters like that, or a Tesla, nothing in between. She's ultra frugal, but she would shell out $50,000 for a car if it was a Tesla.
The people who will be buying the $35,000 Model 3 will be willing to have manual seats, cloth interior, and a lot less in the way of creature comforts than a typical BMW buyer would be willing to get. They will be used to more basic transportation.
The people who lust after Teslas but can't afford one understand that the all electric comes at a premium price and they are willing to pay it. For these people, getting a car that has the trim of a base model family sedan for the price of a low end BMW is acceptable to get the all electric features, whether it's because of environmental concerns, performance, convenience, or they just love the technology.�
Sep 6, 2015
Lonnie123 According to this the average selling price of a car is ~33k ... So I'd say the market is quite large indeed. The Model 3 will be a good car, there is no worry about that, Elon woulnd't have it any other way.
I really think once people have access to hundreds of miles of range, at home charging, super charging for travel, and a lower TCO ... The word will get out how great of a value that car is, whether or not it has temperature adjusting cup holders.�
Sep 6, 2015
drinkerofkoolaid Has anyone tried to project how much a CPO 2013 Model S, with say 80,000 miles will cost in 2017? If Apple logic applies to Tesla, this will prove to be a very interesting fact that will further distinguish a Tesla from a non Tesla.�
Sep 6, 2015
EVNow That avg selling price includes much larger cars and SUVs. It is not a good indicator of 3 total addressable market. BTW, 3 avg selling price won't be less than $45k.�
Sep 6, 2015
igotzzoom There are some areas where the Prius is considered a "mainstream" car (California being one of them), but for most of the U.S., it's still a niche model, and in the words of Elon, considered by many to be a "Weirdmobile." If a pure BEV is going to have a chance of breaking through the stereotypes and really making a big impact, it has to have some emotional appeal to it, in my opinion.
I know the counter to my argument is "Look how many Civics/Corollas/Camrys/Altimas they sell" but few would say any of those cars are generally considered "cool". I think the key to the Model 3 getting a lot of ICE conquest buyers is an "it" factor. If that can be achieved for a price comparable to an ICE equivalent, then the mainstream auto industry will have no choice but to notice Tesla, and any questions about their viability will be put to rest.�
Sep 6, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Don't forget reduced power. Power is very expensive.�
Sep 6, 2015
aronth5 The $35k Model 3 will go the way of the initial Model S with the 40kWH battery initially priced at $57,499. Got lots of favorable press but in the end very few paid that price. In the end over 95+% of buyers will pay over $40k IMO anyway for the Model 3.
The one good thing that is happening is that because the $35k price target has gotten so much press it forces Tesla to work really hard at coming up with an affordable configuration. I suspect Elon know this but also knows that the engineering/design team has to have an almost impossible goal to drive the creative design needed to reduce price. I for one cannot wait to see what they come up with to save money.�
Sep 6, 2015
David_Cary I don't know - EV power is not that expensive. Throw out the 180 hp and 260 hp - I doubt there is $500 difference. I could be wrong of course. With an ICE, there is always a significant engine cost and also a transmission cost. Of course, there is the tire thing - but I think Tesla will shoot for base 3 series size tires - which fit with 260 hp. I think Model S history has shown that he will sell a car without parking sensors, folding mirrors, leather - but it will be fast. Did some S's not have power seats? I know memory was not always standard.�
Sep 6, 2015
S'toon I disagree. People like me want the Model 3 because we can't afford the Model S. The only option I need is the winter package. Anything else is optional depending on price.�
Sep 6, 2015
Theshadows IMO the Model 3 will be a no compromise $35k vehicle. Every option Tesla can squeeze into it to keep that price point will be in it.
Elon does not want any car Tesla makes to be considered the Yugo or the Yaris. His goal is to show the world that electric vehicles kick a**, and the Model 3 will not break that stride. It will be the car that every would be A4, 3 Series, C class buyer will drool over. It will also be the car that every Honda, Toyota, VW buyer will strongly consider. I'm not sure how KIA, Hyundai, GM, and Ford buyers will react.�
Sep 6, 2015
anticitizen13.7 Keep in mind though that even mainstream cars are rapidly moving upwards in terms of features. Even something as pedestrian as a new Honda Accord has features that were only in luxury cars (or not available at all in some cases) just a few years ago.
Model 3 will have to be well equipped to complete with even average new cars.
The Civic Si is "cool" every other generation. In its previous incarnation, it had a small 197hp 2.0L engine that revved to a screaming 8000 RPM. The engine would howl like a banshee during the i-VTEC crossover around 5800 RPM.
But yeah, nobody really thinks twice about the Civic most of the time.�
Sep 6, 2015
pmadflyer I would like to put some perspective into this conversation. I hope to do that by adding some honest opinion along with some oversimplified numbers.
My Perspective:
Current Car:
I am a third year Civil Engineering student with a 2002 Honda Accord LX with failing black paint. Though nothing much to look at, my vehicle has fully electric mirrors, windows, and cruise control. My roommate also has a 2002 Honda Accord, but a higher trim package. In essence, his car only varies in that it has different cloth on the seats, a larger radio, and a sunroof. Adjusted for inflation, my vehicle would cost $25,000 new, today. We both expect a relatively basic Model 3 to completely surpass this.
My Knowledge of the Company:
I have consumed every numerical tidbit to come out of Tesla Motors for the past three years, and most of it from about five years ago. It feels like every day someone says that Tesla can only build an econobox for $35k, and it is annoying, but the information coming out of Tesla is very limited. Rather than spend more time on that, I'll look at some of the things that are going on at Tesla to prepare for the Model 3.
Model S is Only a Mule:
The Model S dual motor version is said by Elon Musk to contain a very similar motor in the front as will be used in the base RWD Model 3. I believe that this was stated either at the D Event or at the next Earnings Call. This is genius, as it means that millions of miles of testing will have already been done.
Another technology that is stated by Elon as being a very important part of Model 3 is the Autopilot. Elon believes that this is a matter or safety, and that every vehicle should have it once it�s ready. Now for my opinion. I believe that the reason the Model S Autopilot hardware suite is so sparse compared to competitors is that the planned recipient is Model 3. Otherwise, the additional programming necessary to use only one long distance radar, and a single camera, could have been saved. I trust that the engineers understood this, and intended to have a competent code written for a minimalist hardware suite, so that when money starts pouring into other parts of the Model 3 program, one of the more expensive parts is already battle tested.
Interior:
Tesla has mastered the cheap interior, not much to add here, or take away for that matter.
User Controls:
I recall possible discussion of Elon saying there will only be one screen in Model 3, which I thought sounded terrible until I gave more thought to it. I could see Tesla ordering their own non-standard aspect ratio screen that starts in front of the driver and extends to the center. In front of the driver could be a section with basic speed, navigation, and temperature, etc. Media and climate controls could be positioned toward the center so that the driver or passenger could reach it. In other words, half the parts with the same function. I�m sure that if that is in fact the route Tesla goes down, it will be done in an attractive way.
Performance:
I would expect similar base performance to the S70, taking into account reduced weight.
As usual, I spent far more time typing this up than I had hoped for, so I�ll go ahead and post this already.�
Sep 6, 2015
LargeHamCollider Probably could have added this to a previous post.
Features I don't think the 3 will have Standard:
1. Heated folding mirrors
2. Free first years of LTE/3G
3. Free supercharging (my iPad just autocorrected "supercharging" to "super hating"
4. Retracting door handles
5. Back up camera (edit: it will have this)
6. Driver profiles (will be option)
Options that won't be available:
1. Rear seat heaters/heated steering wheel
2. Smart Air suspension
3. Power lift gate/cornering lights
4. Third row (obviously)
(5. Maybe pano roof)
Cheaper stuff:
1. ~180hp base motor 0-60 in ~7s
2. 50kwh battery in base model
3. More steel, less aluminum, no titanium in battery shield.
4. Smaller screen ~14" (I think there'll still be two)
5. 17" tires standard
Even with the above gone a fair number of awesome features are left.�
Sep 6, 2015
S'toon Like what?�
Sep 6, 2015
LargeHamCollider All electric drivetrain
Autopilot (as option)
real time traffic (as option)
speed limit detecting camera/speed warning
Rain sensing wipers/ auto headlights
The above list is imo more substantive than the list of features I guessed will be absent.�
Sep 6, 2015
bwa I tend to agree with your guesses except the above quoted:
Back up camera: a lot of safety regulations want this to exist. You may be right, though.
Driver profiles: doing this is SO CHEAP that it seems silly not to.
More steel, less aluminum: agree, mostly, but they may do cheap composites. I disagree with no titanium in battery shield MOSTLY --- we'll find out later.�
Sep 6, 2015
S'toon I can deal with having none of those.
If there were no supercharging I wouldn't buy it. Heck, if there still isn't any superchargers within a 1000km of here by 2018 I won't buy the car.
I couldn't care less if it had speed limiting cameras/speed warning, or rain sensing wipers/auto headlights. I'm not too lazy to turn on the fricking lights or turn on the windshield wipers. I turn on the windshield and lights on my car now, it's not an effort to do so. How on Earth do people think are must have features these days?
Even non-luxury GM cars have 4G now. I can't imagine that the Model 3 won't in 2 years.�
Sep 6, 2015
bwa Limited manufacturing capability and a very high demand are going to keep the price artificially high. But I'm hoping I'm wrong. I have an 11 year old MB E500 right now I bought when it had become very very highly depreciated, and it seems cheap and plastic to me, and I've spent way too much on ICE parts that the Model S DOESN'T EVEN HAVE. I thought I'd be on my 8th used electric car by now since I thought they were coming out with them 30 years ago and would be on the used market. But I'm not. Not even one. So I hope the Tesla Model S 2012 model comes down to something I can afford in say, 2017 or so -- it will be a lateral move in comfort (I find it to be a little less comfortable than my aging E500 in test drives of the Tesla S, and I'm already feeling my E500 is a very cheap type of thing and uncomfortable), and the Model S interior sucks from the point of view of someone who wants a luxury car, but you can't beat the fact that it's not an ICE and isn't an ugly piece of crap looking like the Toy Piss, I mean Toy Pious.�
Sep 6, 2015
Candleflame I don't understand why ppl always go on about the model S screen. I don't think its that expensive to manufacture, and almost certainly wont be much cheaper to make it smaller and Im pretty sure its cheaper to put an LCD in the car, rather than 100 buttons in the cockpit...�
Sep 6, 2015
stopcrazypp Back up camera is required by law to be in all new vehicles by 2018. So the Model 3 must have it. My uncle recently bought a cheap Corolla and it came with a back up camera so they are really common nowadays.
About the smaller motor, I'm not sure if Tesla will do that. It might be cheaper to just keep in the same 259hp ("motor power") motor as the dual motor models since it'll allow higher volume.�
Sep 6, 2015
LargeHamCollider Tough to argue with that, I'll scratch it from my list.
I wouldn't be surprised if the same 259hp motor is used but Tesla won't let you use all that power or it would be as fast as an S70.
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Dude, read the whole post.
No one is saying there will be no supercharging or LTE, I just doubt it will be included with the base price. I could be wrong.�
Sep 6, 2015
Yggdrasill It will surpass it. But not with creature comforts. The driveline is what will blow your Honda out of the water.
The Model 3 will need at least the front radar to be standard, to allow for autonomous emergency braking, needed in the Euro NCAP testing to get five stars. I think most of the other autopilot hardware will be optional.
I recall there being a "might" in there.
I think Tesla will definitely have something like a 15" monitor instead of the 17" monitor in the S/X. Then the question is if regular dials for power, speed, remaining capacity, etc will be cheaper than a LCD. I think not, but there's nothing wrong with Tesla keeping an open mind.�
Sep 6, 2015
bwa I agree about auto-wipers. Anyway, I use Rain-X so the auto wiper function is wrong anyway: I always just turn them off, and every few minutes in heavy traffic where the rain doesn't just fly off by itself hit the wash button in the single-wipe position and everything is better than having the wipers on.
WTH is 4G? You mean my car is a smartphone? Will it help me find a mate, or tell me what my next calendar function is, or schedule my appointments for me? If not, why does it need 4G? Maps? I already have 5 great apps on my iPhone, including TomTom which has a few gig for offline navigation (and I subscribe to traffic and it catches all sorts of things the other maps don't). It even tells me the speed limit on most streets. A freeking cheapie car doesn't need anything for networking except a smartphone mount on the dash so I can use my iPhone/Android to do that for me without looking away from traffic. Unless it understands English commands for replacing my smartphone for in-car use, which would be awesome, but I haven't seen that on any car to date. I'd be 100% fine if the Model 3 didn't have any Internet.
Ok, I'm going to go through all the features my current car has and think if it could be dropped for a cheap electric car:
* Remote key unlock as I walk up to it. I find this is a must in my market of wanting to be in a more luxury part of my life as I get older. But realistically, I found out that other very cheap cars these days have this feature too. It is so amazingly useful that it is virtually required at this point. But:
* Very very hard to copy key that is absolutely required to make it work. This is very important in the rougher neighborhoods purchasers of the Model 3 will have to sometimes deal with. If you have a Honda, you have to budget time every time you want to drive it to walk around for a few blocks looking for where the local kids parked it after they took it for a joyride, because its keys are absolutely useless. I don't think Model 3 drivers will put up with their car being a communal meeting place and vehicle.
* All-window-open before I get into it. It used to be most homes and businesses were near rivers and oceans, because that's where it's easy to sail boats, build bridges, fish, and get fresh water, lumber, and other building materials. There it was relatively cool, and there was fog. These days as the population keeps going up, we're being forced inland, where there is more heat, more sunlight (less fog), and generally speaking, cars will get baking hot. Also more poor people exist that don't have garages to park in. This is more necessary now for a Model 3 owner than it ever was for a Model S owner or any car before today. Sorry, but this is going to continue to be more important, not less important, even for cheap cars. Plus it's free to manufacture if you have a remote entry key fob and electric windows.
* Electric windows. Leaning down and reaching over to get to the other window while driving will kill people. Losing your belongings or getting water damage because you forgot to roll up the back windows will be bad too. Electric windows are the norm.
* Automatic electric seats that move around to your position as you get in and out. I'm used to it by now, and if these exist, it's basically free to have multiple settings for multiple people, but do I need it? Good mechanical levers work great, and everyone knows how to use them. This is the first item I found on my list of things that can be left out of a cheap car.
* Electric mirrors. This is a safety thing. If the mirrors aren't electric, everyone will not adjust the mirrors, and people will die. You can't skimp on this any more. My $1,200 Volvo had electric mirrors. It's free for it to adjust to each driver if everyone has their own key, and cheap if not.
* Volume button on the steering wheel. If the volume knob (yes, I said KNOB) is easy to reach and ONLY HAS ONE FUNCTION, then this absolutely does not have to be on the steering wheel. Savings #2. Volume must be a knob somewhere where you can turn it down FAST (and up quickly too).
* Keyless entry, keyless start, etc.. Free to implement if they already have a key fob. I don't see the point in taking this out of the cheap car artificially. Actually, it's cheaper, since ignition switches that take key fobs are pretty darn expensive pieces of equipment.
* Emergency break. Every car has a mechanical emergency break, so I don't see the point in discussing this.
* Break, Accelerator, Turn Signal. Ditto.
* Interior hood release. Mandatory for security reasons. I could see requiring key fob instead to make it cheaper. Ditto trunk. Savings #3 -- only use key fob to open trunk/frunk rather than other buttons. Of course, need safety exit mechanical exit lever inside each.
* Rain wipe control: I use Rain-X. I'd rather the wipers only go off when I press the button once. For other people I bet 3 speed is just fine.
* Window Washer Wiper system: for cheap, I'd say you could leave this out, but I use it all the time in dusty areas so maybe not, but growing up most the cars we had didn't have this. This could be some real savings. Savings #4.
* Glove box. Need someplace to hold the binder we hand the pigs. Still need that.
* Radio. Savings #5: no radio, only an AUX amp & speakers. Model 3 people are poorer people who have lives that suck, so they need their tunes to keep themselves distracted from their no-use life. Skimping out on sound for these people is often a very bad idea. But some % of Model 3 drivers will be very old grandmas that don't have the mental ability and never had the opportunity to appreciate any kind of music, so I don't know if they want to listen to Listener Supported Radio or not. Focus group this, but I tend toward the Model 3 making "great sound" an option, and only support AUX and Bluetooth, and the Listener Supported radio stations, once that Great Sound is ordered. I could be way off base on this one. A standard upgrade method and mounts for speakers (8 position?) and conduits for wires (to each speaker mount point) for upgrades may be the best way to not actually sell it with good sound but allow the resale value to be OK.
* Air Conditioning. Remember I said poor people are being shoved into the oven of the hot lands? This is a new requirement that all cheap vehicles must have, and must work. It probably should have a thermostat with a Degrees Fahrenheit setting, but not zone control. Zone control doesn't even work on my Mercedes E class equipped with it (analogous to a Model 5 in the BMW series), so why would it suddenly work on some brand new Model 3? Plus, most poor people don't understand zone control anyway (sorry, stereotype but probably true). Savings #6. (Does Model S have zone control? Uhoh I don't even know.)
* Cooled and heated seats. I'm starting to feel like everything is all bad with not having cooled seats. This could be one of the hallmarks of the Tesla Model 3 that it doesn't skimp on cooled seats. But since I don't even think the Model S has that, this can't be counted as a savings if I'm already asking for it to be a new standard feature. I'm not seeing any savings in this area regardless.
* Cup holder. It's just plastic. You're not getting rid of it; you're adding it. Poor people like eating and driving at the same time.
* Cigarette Lighter. Absolutely no one smokes any more -- well, I'd like to believe that. Unfortunately there are some losers who smoke pot, but not if they don't want a DUI. But everybody and their entire family and all their friends need more ports than there are in any car to charge in. No change toward the cheaper, EXCEPT you can get rid of the round cigarette lighter port and replace that with a bunch of power USB ports instead. So that's a lateral move.
* Navigation system. Skip that entirely and provide a smartphone mount in the dash that is really good for the driver to see while driving and reach while driving. Savings #7.
* Clock in the dash. I love my analog clock next to the speedometer. How fast do I need to drive? That fast. Ok, I can go slow, or fast, or whatever, to get the analog clock in the right position. Perfect. Do poor people need to be on time? I don't know. Let's say they don't get a clock in the dash and this is savings #8. But if there's a computer screen, then there's no savings. Since they say it has a computer screen, this isn't a savings then.
* Fog lights. I don't think a cheap car needs fog lights. Savings #8.
* Adaptive mirrors to stop blinding lights. I have no idea how much this costs on my car, so this could be savings #9 not to offer this. Blind drivers don't make good drivers. But if all Model 3's drive themselves, the owners don't need to be able to see. I'll go with savings.
* Sun roof. Completely useless. Savings #10.
* Screens on rear windows instead of standard dark tint. Dark tint is cheaper. Savings #11. Rear window tint instead of screen. Savings #12. But the Model S doesn't have those things so no savings.
* A few extra leather pouches and cubby holes to put things. Poor people still have stuff, so they need holes and cubby holes, but not necessarily as many. Savings #11. Oh wait --- the Model S is notorious for having too few. No savings here.
* Self-retracting door handles. Never do this again without testing it better. Savings #11. Finally.
* Cruise Control. Wait, did you say the Model 3 will be self driving?
* Panoramic roof. Model S offers it as an option, so that is no savings.
* Air suspension. I got so used to this in all the tractor-trailer trucks I drove, and now the cars I drive, that I think of it as mandatory. But, apparently, it's not that common in passenger cars. So, let's go with Savings #12. It's about $5,000 so this isn't a small item.
I tell you what. I'm having a seriously hard time coming up with savings. The dozen or so things I could think of aren't adding up to enough to turn a $75,000 car into a $35,000 car ($40,000 difference). I only identified about $10,000 of stuff. If using steel saves another $10,000, then that's a $55,000 car. If they make the car slightly more compact (less frunk, less trunk), then that's less steel, less weight, less batteries needed to go so far, so that might be another $5,000 or so, and that's $50,000 still, far from the $35,000 to make a small car. Let's say $5,000 of the Model S was the Supercharger network being free: let's take that out. That'll make it a $45,000 car now, but not a $35,000. What if Tesla was charging a lot of margin for the S? Let's say $8,000. Subtract that, and we now have a $37,000 Tesla. They're going to have to find something else to make the car cheaper.�
Sep 6, 2015
S'toon
I think I'm insulted by this post.�
Sep 7, 2015
wdolson From what I've read in several places, the profit on each Model S is around 25%, which makes it approximately $15K-$25K, probably a bit more. I suspect the profit margin on the higher end P85D/P90D are higher than on the low end 70Ds. The extra $10K they are getting for Ludicrous mode is probably almost all profit.
If they trim the profit margin percentage a bit expecting to make up the difference on volume, they could lower the profit margin to only $5K and cut an average of almost $15K.
The big cost factor in a long range EV is the battery pack. That is what makes the Model S so expensive. There is a talk on YouTube given by one of Tesla's top engineers from back in May of this year. He showed a graph on the price drop of batteries over time. It averages 7% a year. The price projection of a $35K base price for the Model 3 is dependent on that curve continuing into 2018 and beyond. That means a steady 7% drop a year from the introduction of the Model S projected forward 6 years. Because of the steady drop in price, Tesla's profit margin on the Model S has probably gone up a bit since it's introduction.
Tesla now can be pretty sure the Gigafactory will be running at enough capacity by the introduction of the Model 3 to meet the price goals. Musk tweeted the other day reiterating that the Model 3's base price will be $35,000 probably based on that confidence.
To meet the $35K base price, the entry model will have the smallest battery they can get away with along with the most stripped out feature set they can manage. The car will probably have power windows because it's probably cheaper to offer them across the product line these days than have window cranks. Even a lot of $20K cars have electric windows these days. Power seats are not universal though.
The car will still be a good performer just as the entry level Model S 70 is a much better performer than most other alternative fuel vehicles. The ICE makers are trying to convince the public that if you want an alternative fuel vehicle, you need to either pay an arm and a leg for performance or have to suffer with a gutless car if you want a reasonable price. The Model S currently plays into this image because of it's price. The Model 3 will be positioned to destroy this narrative. That is imperative to Tesla's long term strategy.
For $35K, you will get a car with fairly basic features and a battery that just barely gets a 200 mile EPA range rating. The more common Model 3 will be the bigger battery pack model with many of the features you see on the Model S and X now.
One of the first things Tesla is going to do with the Gigafactory is redesign the physical layout of the batteries to use the space better. Currently about 30% of the space in the battery pack is wasted space. If they can better use that space, they can come out with a ~120 KWh battery for the Model S and X, and make a 40-50KWh battery pack for the Model 3 that is nice and compact. That will give Tesla designers a bit more space to work with.�
Sep 7, 2015
gregincal One of the most important things for me in competing with the BMW 3 series isn't so much all the features as handling and performance. Performance is one of the key advantages of an EV, not just 0-60 time but fast starts and quick acceleration at speed (as long as you have a big battery, not like just about every other current EV). Couple that with competitive handling and stylish looks and it will compete. Make it a boring people mover like the Leaf or the Prius and it won't. Other manufacturers don't want EVs to compete on performance, they just want to market them as eco-vehicles. Even BMW chose narrow tires that clearly impact handling to make the car appeal as a more eco friendly car.�
Sep 7, 2015
Atlantis There is a good analysis of the model 3's batteries power (cheap 44kw, regular 66kw and performance 66kw) and a very wise package of these batteries allowed by new 20700 cells in this article (it's 20 pages to read but it's worth it) http://seekingalpha.com/article/3258855-will-teslas-model-3-compete
�
Sep 7, 2015
EVNow It is a poor analysis - discussed in another thread here. you don't get 200 miles EPA range with 44kwh - need a minimum of 55kWh ( will likely be 60 kwh, giving 220 miles range).
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People buy BMW 3 series for a number of reasons.
Even with features, everyone has their own must haves. So 3 has to be just somewhat competitive on features - including acceleration, interior and handling. It would be interesting to do a comparative analysis of features / specs available with base versions of these C class premium cars.�
Sep 7, 2015
Lonnie123 What the odds that Tesla "pulls an S40" and only produces one size pack, and just offers different models from that one size?
Meaning, they only produce a 60kWh pack but offer 50kWh for the base model, with option to unlock later? Or even just keep churning out 70's to cross over into the Model S and just lock it off for the 3? This way they could offer a 50,60,70 ... and they have the option of making "free" money for owners that decide to upgrade later on.
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Its interesting reading this thread to see what features some people consider essential and others not. If nothing else it gives insight as to what the customer base will be.�
Sep 7, 2015
dgpcolorado Yes. The whole idea of the Model 3, as I understand it, is to offer a capable EV that is affordable to mid market buyers. If Tesla manages that I think they will have a hit and my guess is that a lot of those cars won't be loaded, the way the money-is-no-object Model S tends to be.
The only option I consider "must-have" is Supercharger access, assuming that it is not standard. Don't really need the cold weather package, since I don't live in the frozen north like you do.�
Sep 7, 2015
EVNow No chance. When they would be trying to save every dollar to hit $35k, they won't increase the cost by thousands of dollars needlessly.�
Sep 7, 2015
dgpcolorado I'd be surprised if the heated steering wheel wasn't offered as part of the cold weather package. It really ought to be standard in any EV because it reduces the need for cabin heat (speaking from long experience).I don't buy the idea of a 50 kWh battery. Musk talks about a minimum "real world" range of 200 miles � which I would interpret as an EPA range of at least 220-240 miles � and a 50 kWh battery won't get there. I'm guessing a 60 kWh battery on the base Model 3.�
Sep 7, 2015
pmadflyer As mentioned, the battery size was debated and I crunched numbers using the stated pack and vehicle production capacity in 2020 (35 gWh and 500k vehicles) . Here's a new example:
50k 85 kWh S/X
50k 70 kWh S/X
50k 90 kWh S/X
350k 65 kWh 3
That's just numbers I made up. My point is, there will be plenty of kWh to go around.
Bonus, this assumes none of the expanded Gigafactory output goes to vehicles.�
Sep 7, 2015
CaptainKirk Everyone will have a list of needs and wants for a vehicle. I intend to attempt to place a reservation when announced, along with my father. When the time comes around to confirm though, the final specs need to make it worthwhile for me to replace my '08 Lexus IS350, therefore I probably wouldn't be getting the base model, but it should be comparable to a current IS350 of similar cost. Otherwise I will just continue to drive my current car into the ground. I would still prefer a Model 3 because I intend to start a family around the time of delivery, and I'm seriously hoping that it can be my new family car. My list of needs and want include:
Needs:
- fold down rear seats (very likely for Tesla Model 3)
- usable frunk with cargo net(doable)
- comparable HP to my current car's 306 HP (I'm willing to budge on this)
- cupholders! I love to go on road trips and this is actually important
- leather seats
- 18 way adjustable seats + lumbar support
- adjustable height seat belts
Want:
- heated and cooled seats (you never know how you went without them until you have them)
- 17" Touchscreen (wouldn't it be easier for Tesla just to keep the UI without messing around with different resolutions? they can also drive down the cost of these units)
- Automatic handles like the S (I am willing to settle for manually operated recessed handles similar to Jaguar's)
- Home garage link
- True comfortable seating for 5 adults. I'm not a tall guy at 5'8" and I find the IS350 tight in the rear for long trips.
- HID/LED lights that follow the turning of the wheel
- Alloy Rims and painted callipers
- Parking Sensors
- Dual Motor AWD
- adjustable height headrests
I'm a pretty easy guy to please, as you can see, so I have my fingers crossed! See you all on-line come march!�
Sep 7, 2015
wdolson As I understand it, they only did that with the S40 because demand for it was so low, it didn't justify making a lower capacity battery pack. For the few S40s ordered, they just crippled an S60 pack. For weight and cost of production, it actually makes sense to make different battery packs with different real capacities. As long as there is enough demand for each pack size.�
Sep 7, 2015
S'toon Right. My bad. Cold weather package, and supercharger access. No supercharger access, no road trips.
It also must be noted that I live in the middle of the supercharger black hole, where the map shows that Tesla doesn't even plan to put any superchargers. So, if by say 2018 there's still no superchargers, I'll be looking into buying a Volt.�
Sep 7, 2015
tom66 My predictions:
- Smaller touchscreen (14"~16" instead) and maybe dropping the full digital dash or reducing the size of the dashboard LCD (perhaps, for example, adding external telltales rather than using a larger LCD.)
- Base model needs at least 200hp at the wheels IMHO, they will offer a tricked out M3 competitor with M3-like specs, probably similar to P85D with AWD.
- Interior trim will be better or similar to Model S currently, but likely worse than future GenII+ Model S, perhaps of a similar interior design language.
- All wheel drive definitely an option.
- Base model has 18" wheels, perhaps even smaller, and just basic alloy wheels with nothing too fancy.
- Autopilot safety features might be optional, but Tesla seems to be against making safety features optional so who knows. Maybe some features like the speed warning will be optional (they require the Mobileye camera) but the cruise radar will be standard allowing for automatic emergency braking as standard.
- Supercharging will be included but I predict there will be a fair usage policy to prevent taxi firms etc taking advantage of the network to the detrement of other customers. For example, you get up to 30 free supercharging days in a year for up to 8 years with a clause specifically prohibiting commercial usage except commuting to or from a place of work. You can use the superchargers an unlimited number of times in each day. One charge or ten charges in a day, it doesn't matter. This lets people roadtrip whilst clearing the air about what is fair and reasonable usage - anything up to the limit is acceptable. Of course Tesla would also have to offer extra charging packages if they do this, or perhaps the option for $10 to purchase another day, for power users.
- 3G/4G connectivity will be an optional package after 4 years, although roadside/telemetry/app usage will be free forever if you want to use web browser/map etc then you will have to pay for this. The centre console will still support wifi so people who do not wish to use Tesla's network may use their own with a wifi hotspot. Maybe the sim card will be interchangeable.
- The audio system will consist of a standard automotive four-speaker system with a 40W/ch rating. The high-fidelity option will still be available.�
Sep 7, 2015
LargeHamCollider While I hope your right I'd be very surprised to see 60kwh base. Imo there's a > 90% chance that base model will be 50 or 55kwh. I expect M3 to use 20% less energy per mile than MS, at this usage rate a 60kwh M3 would have an EPA range of ~245 miles, I expect the base model to have more like a 220 mi EPA range.�
Sep 7, 2015
pmadflyer On the highway in a snow storm? That's the conditions Elon have when he stated a minimum 200 mile real world range.�
Sep 7, 2015
LargeHamCollider I must have missed where Elon said "on the highway in a snowstorm" ... The "post your Wh/mile" thread shows EPA figures to be about 10% optimistic if memory serves, beating 200 miles EPA by 10% would legitimize a claim of "200 miles real world range."�
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