Thứ Năm, 5 tháng 1, 2017

Model 3 will have less features than the S. Which one would not make it? part 2

  • Sep 7, 2015
    Lonnie123
    Me too... And I can probably quote most things Elon has said ;-) That not "real world" that "worst case scenario," you might as well add uphill both ways and against the wind while we're at it.
  • Sep 8, 2015
    Candleflame
    A tesla S85 has a real life range of slightly over 200. So they need to either reduce w/mile consumption or have a similar sized battery pack.
  • Sep 8, 2015
    pmadflyer
    I think it was in the Q4 2014 earnings call. I'll look for it and get back with a link.

    Edit:
    So it was actually from the Ending Range Anxiety presentation
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXADb8gE9RU&app=desktop

    16 minutes in

    "I do think that 200 miles is kind of a minimum threshold for an electric car, but it does need to be a true 200 miles. You know, it can't bee 200 miles if you are traveling at 35 mph on level ground with the air conditioning off, you know, in warm weather. It's got to be 200 miles that you can count on. So, I think that's an important factor, and that's kind of a passing grade. Anything below that is probably not a passing grade. Ideally, people are looking for a bit more than that, at least twenty to thirty percent more than that. So, that's why we tend to favor a range above 250 miles, and closer to 300 miles, as what people really find convenient."
  • Sep 9, 2015
    Red Sage
    Hmmm... The feature to make lists of things that are pretty much standard on every competitor's car but will not appear on Model ? will not appear on Model ?.
  • Sep 10, 2015
    trils0n
    There are things they can do to cut costs that won't result in loss of features. For example, each of the air vents in the Model S is a unique shape! There are 5. Four on the dash, and the one in the center console for the rear passengers. Most cars have a single shape, or 2 shapes. 5 unique parts is ridiculous, and more expensive. Single vent design = higher volume for the part, lower tooling and inventory costs, etc.

    Retracting door handles for sure are gone. They are expensive, and probably have tremendous warranty reserves compared to normal mechanical handles. Probably part of their million mile drive train goal is to increase reliability for Model 3 to reduce warranty repairs/reserves/service center visits so they can offer a lower price.
  • Sep 11, 2015
    Vitold
    I think that Tesla will create new motor for Model 3 and, to keep part count low, will use it with new iterations of Model S.
  • Sep 11, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    They've probably already done that. The front motor on the D-versions is in all probability the same motor that will be found in the Model 3.
  • Sep 11, 2015
    dgpcolorado
    But would they use the same motor for both front and rear in the AWD version of the Model 3?
  • Sep 11, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    I think so. That's what they do on the 70D/85D/90D. But they may tweak the design to get a lower cost, and you might not get quite the same power as in the Model S, as the Model 3 might be limited by the battery. They will of course also tweak the reduction gear ratio, for ideal power and efficiency at different speeds.
  • Sep 11, 2015
    pmadflyer
    They did.
  • Sep 11, 2015
    trils0n
    From 2Q15 conference call:

    Andrea James
    What about the drive unit, investments in the drive unit manufacturing? Is any of that small drive unit going to be used for Model 3 or -? It seems like you're really scaling up there.

    Elon Musk
    We've certainly learned a great deal going from the original Model S drive unit to the small drive unit � what's called the small drive unit. It's dramatically easier to build, it's much more automated. That said, I think we will do a further revision for the Model 3 and essentially go to the third-generation production technology for the Model 3.
  • Sep 12, 2015
    MassModel3
    Now that is great news! If it's not the sought after million mile motor, it sounds like it's at least well on its way.
  • Sep 12, 2015
    Fiver
    It strikes me it's less about "what features will be cut to bring down the price" and more about "what high margin items are included to raise profit". I'd say the base, and near base Model 3's will essentially be a zero profit car. Possibly even slightly negative profit car. It's the options where they will make money back. Most of us want a 3, we just don't want a base three. In theory, I'd say a base 70D's price would get you a pimp maxed out 3. Much like the profit margin is very nice on the P90D, the margin on the top of the line (or even middle of the line) 3 will compensate for the next to nothing profit that would be made on the base model 3.

    I'm ready to drop $50k on a nice mid-high spec 3. I'm sure the "carbon fiber" dash will just be plastic looking carbon fiber and cost Tesla .80�, but cost me $1,000 or more, the "leather interior" won't be real leather, but they will have 300-500% margin on it. The stereo won't be very nice, the interior lighting package will have high margins, the auto lift gate might cost Tesla $250 but they will charge $1,000. Heated seats? That's a 300 to 500% margin... All these features will make the mid-high end three very profitable for Tesla. The high ends will ship first too. Don't expect to see base Model 3's coming off the line for 6 months to a year after they are released. Ship the profitable cars before starting the not-so profitable ones.
  • Sep 12, 2015
    Model 3
    Not sure I see what you really is asking about, but to day you may order the TMS with "the biggest battery pack" - 90kWh, and be done and not have to order anything else that you don't need, what or you does not afford. You may select the 19" Cyclone wheel, as Elon has said they are the best choose for low consumption, if rangr is your primary goal. But what it will be like for the TM3, we still don't know....
  • Sep 12, 2015
    EVNow
    Clearly there are 2 schools of thought here. One set says Tesla is going to rollout 3 just like they did S/X
    - Sig cars
    - Higher priced trims first and the much touted $35k would come months later
    - Some even feel existing S/X owners should get priority in booking for 3, even though S owners didn't get priority with X

    The other school feels 3 rollout has to be different than S/X to be called "mass market". Otherwise Tesla will have to deal with very bad press.
    - All trims come out first, esp. the $35k base model
    - If there is a Sig, it will not come out first

    I guess Tesla is thinking about these options too.
  • Sep 12, 2015
    LargeHamCollider
    Good sleuthing, it's useful to have the exact quote. This somewhat softens my position on base model range but only somewhat, my money is still on 55kwh ~220mi EPA base and ~300mile EPA 70-75kwh upgrade.
  • Sep 12, 2015
    stopcrazypp
    I thought the main consensus is that the same Sig and more expensive trim coming first is to be expected for Model 3 given prior history.

    The point about S/X owners getting priority however lots of people disagreed and there is no precedence for that either AFAIK.
  • Sep 12, 2015
    EVNow
    I don't see a consensus. May be majority of current S/X owners feel that way. I bet if you surveyed the target buyers for 3 (in the real world, not just TMC), you would get a very different response. Would be an interesting poll to run here, though.
  • Sep 12, 2015
    Model 3
    First: IF there is TM3 Sig's, then they will be produced first - that is some of the point of "Signatures" series after all... I have not seen anyone saying anything else? But there is debatable if it make sense to make a signature series at all...

    Your right about the disagreement about if any existing owners should get priority, and that some think that "Higher priced trims first and the much touted $35k would come months later". But it's room for a middle ground between that and "All trims come out first, esp. the $35k base model". They have prioritised (not sure if they still do?) the "P" models, and you would get your "P" delivered a month or so before a "none-P" ordered at the same time. And during the ramp-up of TMS it took some months until they started to roll out the 60's (3?) - and even longer until the 40's (that happened to be limited 60's) (2 more?). But with the ramp-up and production numbers we are talking about here it will be more like weeks and not months.
  • Sep 12, 2015
    ProphetM
    I'm in the camp that thinks Tesla will want to bring the base model out first, or very soon after introduction. Their end game is the mass market, and it will reflect badly on them if they don't have something to offer the mass market when the Model 3 comes out. $50,000 is not a mass market car. They will suffer charges of selling vaporware if that's all they've got to sell. I'm dubious of them even doing a sig edition - there is no reason to think that the model 3's release will be anything like their previous models, given their stated goal. I also don't see any reason why they wouldn't be able to produce base models and P models at the same time, just making what they need based on what early reservation holders are asking for.
  • Sep 13, 2015
    vinnie97
    Did you read the followup posts? It was really a question as to how modular one can go with the options once the design studio goes live. Based on previous rollouts, it looks like partial modularity would apply (by offering several different base options based on battery size upon which you can add further optional features). Thanks for your input.
  • Sep 13, 2015
    James Anders
    Look at it this way...

    What features/options does the 7 Series BMW have that the 3 Series doesn't?
  • Sep 13, 2015
    Model 3
    The reason is that they have an higher margin on the options, so they earn more the more option there is on the cars they deliver. When they start to roll out a new model, they have burned a lot of cash, and need the income from the sale fast. Therefore there is an incentive for them to start with (only) the top-optioned cars with the shortest delivery time (CA/west US/NA) the first week(s). But for exact the reasons you mentioned, and the tempo of the ramp-up, they can not do that for a longer period of time like they did with the Model S. We will soon see what they do with the Model X roll-out....

    - - - Updated - - -

    Not until I had posted :redface:. I overlooked that it was more pages when I got down to the end of that page....
  • Sep 13, 2015
    aronth5
    Good point since the analogy is similar with 7 Series a larger car just like the Model S is larger than the Model 3 will be.
    For instance the 7 series is 200" in length, the 3 Series 182".
  • Sep 13, 2015
    igotzzoom
    I don't want to come across as a class warrior or wealth-hater (those that know me know I'm neither of those things) but from a lot of the posts I've seen on this forum, I don't think many current Model S owners have much of a sense of perspective how important price is to many buyers. I'm not saying the Model 3 needs to be $10,000. However, I'm somewhat befuddled by S owners that say, "Tesla should launch a $75,000, dual motor, ultra-high-performance Model 3 first, and give us (current Model S owners) first crack at buying it." Tell me how in any way that accomplishes Musk's goal of making electric cars mainstream? I know for some members on here, the only difference between $10,000 and $100,000 is the number of zeros, but for most Americans, it's a MAJOR difference requiring serious strategy about money management and budgeting.

    I don't feel people that would consider a $35,000 car would balk at a $40,000 or $45,000 car. If the car had a reasonable level of content and performance for that price, I would absolutely still consider it. However, $50,000 is kind of my cut-off point for reasonable consideration. If it gets to that point or more, I'll probably get a Bolt or another lower-priced EV.
  • Sep 13, 2015
    ProphetM
    That's a premise that I'm not really convinced of. Sure, they will have used up a lot of money, but they are not likely to be in dire financial straits as they may have been when releasing previous cars. Unless the Model X is a total flop, which I seriously doubt. If a low margin on a few hundred cars in their first couple months makes the difference, then they've got much bigger problems, IMO.
  • Sep 13, 2015
    Ronist
  • Sep 13, 2015
    gregincal
    I think almost everybody agrees that most of the Model 3's sold will be under 50K, but that doesn't mean they won't also offer a version that is more expensive. I also imagine that there will be an under 50K version available at launch, I'm just not sure that the 35K version will be available at launch. They will be production constrained for a while, so it makes sense for them to sell higher margin cars at first. I don't see as much a difference between Tesla's vision of the Model 3 and the Model S as other people do. After all, when their only car was the Roadster they talked about the Model S as being their affordable family car. The language they use in describing the Model 3 is similar. It will be mass market because it will be higher much higher selling than the Model S, but it certainly isn't suddenly some affordable car for the masses. It's just the next step in making their cars more mainstream.
  • Sep 14, 2015
    Model 3
    You have a point here, but on the other hand, they will have used a lot more cash to release the TM3 then any of the other cars... Remember, all the other cars was after all "just" released to make enough money so Tesla could actually release the TM3 on the scale it will be. But for the release after TM3 (the roadster NG or TMY or whatever it will be) this should not be a problem.
  • Oct 10, 2015
    bigbear
    You guys really think the 17 inch screen will make it?
  • Oct 10, 2015
    Lonnie123
    I think it has a good chance, if for no other reason than it might just be easier to order the same screen 500,000 times then to manufacture 2 different screen sizes, and thus has to program for two different screens. Unless they plan on squeezing down the size of the original screen they will have to reprogram the way the programs and data are displayed on a smaller screen.
  • Oct 10, 2015
    Candleflame
    ive written this a few times before, i honestly think that the touchscreen isnt that expensive, seeing how without it youd have to manufacture tons of buttons and relays etc AND an obligatory smaller LCD for media/satnav.
  • Oct 10, 2015
    ecarfan
    I think it may be a 15" screen but there will definitely be a large center display with essentially the same UI. And there will also be a driver's LCD display. That way Tesla can leverage all their R&D for the Model S UI into the Model 3 and provide the same excellent user experience.
    In the past Elon has said that the 3 may only have a single display. But I just don't see how that would work, and then Tesla would have to offer a bunch of knobs and buttons and Elon would hate that.
  • Oct 10, 2015
    bigbear
    Single display, like no drivers display?
  • Oct 12, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    I think the GUI work for supporting both 15" and 17" is completely negligible. They probably could simply use the same resolution in a smaller format, as well, the difference wouldn't be that big.

    Going to knobs and buttons however would be a major departure from current tech, and would mean that *a lot* of programming would need to be redone, plus design and development of said buttons. They could still do it, because divided by say 5 million cars, the redesign wouldn't cost that much per car, but I don't think they will. Center touchscreen is modern, and I just don't see Tesla investing tens of millions of dollars into developing already outdated systems. I actually think Tesla would rather sell the Model 3 with a starting price of 40k USD if that is what it would take for the car to be a compelling modern car, rather than sell it with a starting price of 35k USD and have the tech of a Toyota/Honda/Ford/etc. (Not that I think it's impossible to sell the Model 3 at 35k USD with the center touchscreen.)

    - - - Updated - - -

    I assume you would have mechanical dials for speed, power, etc. Or some other non-LCD solution.

    I really really doubt Tesla would go for this solution, though. Even cheap cars these days can have LCDs for this purpose.
  • Oct 12, 2015
    wdolson
    It's far cheaper and easier to manufacture and update electronic displays than mechanical ones. It's a bit more expensive to design the electronic displays (software) in the first place, but they have already done that. Put in the displays on the Model 3 and install the Model S/X firmware and the UI is ready to go. Hooking up the various things from the display down to the new hardware is the only real work you have to do. I strongly doubt the Model 3 will have mechanical displays and not some form of the Model S/X displays.
  • Oct 12, 2015
    gavine
    No Brembo brakes?
  • Oct 12, 2015
    James Anders
    I am sure Brembos will be an option. I think there just will be a lot of options. Again, look at those features in a 7 series BMW vs a 3 series. There's going to be comparable options/features for both.
  • Oct 13, 2015
    Kandiru
    I doubt it will get below 240hp, just to keep competitive. The plethora of slow EVs polluting the market today is the result of having to cope with expensive batteries and need to increase range. As usual, Tesla will make a statement, remember the Model T was faster than a cart at the time:)
  • Oct 13, 2015
    trils0n
    Another feature that probably won't make it is the special chrome trim above the windows. This huge, continuous piece of trim looks gorgeous, but is an automotive oddity. Everyone else breaks this trim into multiple pieces for ease of manufacture, shipping and installation. Tesla's trim is difficult to manufacture, ship and install. Their supplier had to come up with new manufacturing techniques and a special way to ship this part to Tesla because it was so large and easily damaged in transport. I don't think Model 3 can afford those type of expensive design details.
  • Oct 13, 2015
    igotzzoom
    I don't care about superficial gingerbread like chrome trim, etc. As long as it has a long (200+ mi) range, strong acceleration (sub 6-sec 0-60), good tech integration and good passenger/cargo practicality, then I'll be happy.
  • Oct 13, 2015
    ratsbew
    Yeah. LCD screens are cheap. The cost difference between a 17 and something smaller is maybe $15. Tesla is all about that UI so I bet it stays.
  • Oct 14, 2015
    MacroP
    I think a few model S have had issues with the touch screen already (delaminating) and those already out of warranty have been quoted over $2k from memory for a replacement unit though I think Tesla a doing good will gesture here. The LCD display is a complete and complex module which would is most likely built offsite by a third party. What I'm leading to, is that this thing is not really as cheap people think it is and are comparing it to a PC monitor sitting on its side. It's a lot more than that and I reckon it costs Tesla a lot for this OEM display. There's was a website company that stripped down the Model S and I had a close look at this large display module. Very well made but it looked like it cost a fortune to develop and to make.

    Also - I'm not sure Tesla are intending to put many of the defining features of the premium Model S into an entry level car other than it being electric and having a good range. The main 17" LCD display is certainly one of those features. Having the 17" LCD would certainly undermine the larger Model S sedan. IMO they'll put in something slightly smaller even though it may cost the same to manufacturer. It will still most likely be larger than most other cars on the road when released. Just my thoughts.
  • Oct 14, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    One reason I think they'll go for a smaller screen is because the Model 3 should be narrower, meaning less room between the front seats. Maybe it's possible to fit a 17" screen, but it's probably easier to fit a 15" screen.

    If the monitor has less pixels, that also means it needs less GPU-power, and it will consume less power, which means you can have a smaller power supply. These sorts of factors will work towards reducing the cost.
  • Oct 14, 2015
    vortexz
    Elon Musk should just give us a concept preview or something !
    Just give us more details !
    Model 3 will probably be my next car so I'm dying for more news about i!
  • Oct 14, 2015
    bigbear
    139 days until March
  • Oct 14, 2015
    MassModel3
    I just don't understand that line of reasoning. So many people suggest that Tesla probably won't do <whatever> because Tesla wants the Model S to have better everything than the 3 to keep it's eliteness. That's just not the case. Tesla will put out the best car they can at the price point, even if it means it has some of the bells and whistles of the S, even if it has some better features than the S, and even if it does 0 - 60 faster than a 70D does.

    The Model 3 is the car they want everybody to own. Tesla will not lessen or intentionally limit anything about the 3 just because that feature is as good as, or better than, the Model S.
  • Oct 14, 2015
    Bangor Bob
    This. The kvetching from S owners could be monumental.

    Remember the 2012 S was a $40k car with a $40k drivetrain and an expensive, low-volume interior. Good odds the battery cells themselves were initially close to $30k. With the improvements since then, the Gigafactory and the 3's smaller stature (meaning smaller battery) the cells could be as little as $6000. That leaves quite a bit over for the car itself.

    I actually think Tesla is going to have to start stepping-up the content in the S before long to "justify" the price. (Arguably they've already started with Next-gen seats, Autopilot, etc.)

    Interesting times ahead for the auto industry over the next few years...

    I can live with a 15" screen and normal doors though. :wink:
  • Oct 14, 2015
    MacroP
    Ultimately it doesn't bother me as I can't own a a Tesla yet where I live but my reasoning is that it will prematurely de-value your S60 or another person's S60 and possibly make it very hard to sell for a decent return. If the Model 3 has most of the bells and the whistles of the early S60 and is around the same price (of a secondhand S60) also with a similar range - where does that leave the S60 in a couple of years? Undervalued? I simply saying that Tesla needs to be extra cautious here. IMO - to get it at the price-point they want they'll have to limit many of the fancy features regardless.
  • Oct 14, 2015
    aronth5
    I will be surprised if Tesla actually reveals the Model 3 in March. Tesla time probably means April/May.
  • Oct 14, 2015
    bigbear
  • Oct 14, 2015
    S'toon
    I've finally figured out what has been bugging me about this thread. The title is grammatically incorrect. It should read "Model 3 will have fewer features..."
  • Oct 14, 2015
    MassModel3
    Took you 10 days and 17+ pages of posts to finally figure out what's buggin you? Too funny. :biggrin:

    - - - Updated - - -

    That's the price of living on the bleeding edge of technology. Early adopters have to expect that they won't get their monies back on trade, but as long as they can afford it and they're happy with the car, good on 'em.

    I take consolation in the fact the I bought used and saved 1/3 the price on a car with only 10,000 miles on it. But I still do the math every once in a while and I know I'm going to lose money on the deal when I trade to a Model 3. Even so, I'd still prefer to trade for a new Model 3 versus keep an aging Model S that is eventually going to get very costly to maintain.

    And you're right -- used Model S's will be ripe for the picking. They'll be fairly affordable -- in the same ballpark as a new Model 3 -- but the 3 will have new everything, including warranties and batteries. It'll just be a bit smaller.

    Unless people really have their heart set on the S, or they have money to blow, the 3 should be a no brainer.
  • Oct 14, 2015
    Caligula
    You know, I don't remember where I read it but I recall recently reading a news article speculating the Model 3 would "beat the M3 (I assume E92) to 60MPH". Im obviously paraphrasing, but that's the basic gist. Anyone else see anything about this? Im just reminded of this as I browse the replies, and see people estimating 6-8 second 60MPH times.
  • Oct 14, 2015
    Caligula
    Sorry, for some reason I cant figure out how to edit my posts. Perhaps thats after you reach a set number of posts/replies? In any case, this isnt the article I read, but its basically what Im talking about:

    http://www.carbuzz.com/news/2015/7/25/Tesla-s-Entry-Level-Model-3-Could-Do-0-To-60-MPH-Quicker-Than-The-M3-7728259/
  • Oct 14, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    In the base 35k USD version, something like 6-8 seconds on 0-60 mph is likely. But when you buy the bigger battery and the performance AWD, you'll probably looking at something in the 2.7-4.0 range.
  • Oct 15, 2015
    MacroP
    I understand (I'm an avid early adopter myself) though I'm not sure a few around here follow your optimism. By the time the Model 3 is out you may see some 6 year old S60s floating around with 100k miles on the clock. Would be these be worth in the US then? Maybe $25k?. Potential bargain of the century.

    Sad to say - I'm hoping the Model S's down here in Oz depreciate in a similar fashion once the Model 3 arrives to make them more affordable.
  • Oct 15, 2015
    stopcrazypp
    The S70s are already pushing depreciation of the S60s. I don't see any indication of Tesla holding back to preserve the value of older vehicles.
  • Oct 15, 2015
    EVdocmaker
    Personally I am getting rather tired of people suggesting that the MODEL 3 should or can have a battery that is less than 70kWh.
    Allow me please to assure you anything less than absolute rock bottom 65kWh will cost the car so much range capability it will be a disaster.
    People have got this huge ignorance when it comes to batteries and range. The notion that you could put a pack the size of the original
    ROADSTER pack into a sedan and get 230 miles ranges is simply uneducated. A car that does 205 miles range is not going to cut it some
    people think the MODEL 3 could drive on less than 50kWh and it could if 170 miles range is acceptable to you. The MODEL 3 needs a solid
    70kWh battery pack as the entry level and it will touch or ballpark a 240 miles EPA range more with dual motor option. The Premium MODEL 3
    with have a 90kWh pack and a 300 miles EPA rating. We are NOT talking about a future NISSAN LEAF we are talking TESLA folks !
  • Oct 15, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    My bet is on 60 kWh (~53 kWh available) for the small battery and 80 kWh (~70 kWh available) for the big battery. Assuming the 60 kWh version will have 20% lower consumption than the S70, and the 80 kWh version will have 20% lower consumption than the 85D, that results in EPA ranges of around 245 miles for the small battery and 315 miles for the large battery. I think that is pretty good.
  • Oct 15, 2015
    WarpedOne
    S60 got 94 city and 97 highway MPGe, 95 combined with 35 kWh/100mi
    S70D got to 101 city and 102 highway MPGe with 33kWh/100mi
    i3 got 137 city and 111 highway MPGe, 124 combined with 27kWh/100mi

    20% better than S60 is BMW i3 territory. I wouldn't bet on it..
  • Oct 15, 2015
    Xenius
    I would be perfectly happy with a 315 mile range in the Model 3. Of course I don't have any range anxiety about the current options available for the S. I just have anxiety about the cost :p
  • Oct 15, 2015
    wdolson
    The Roadster weighed almost 3000 lbs. The Model 3 will probably come in somewhere in the middle between the Roadster and the Model S, I would guess around 4000 lbs. The more weight you're trying to push around the more Wh/mi you're going to use. Reducing the weight by 20% will ensure the Model 3 gets much better Wh/Mi than the Model S, probably in the neighborhood of 240 Wh/Mi. With a 50KWH battery, that's a 208 mile range. Larger battery packs increase the weight, which increases the WH/Mi. Eventually you get into the region of diminishing returns where you're burning more energy to carry a larger battery around, but aren't seeing much increase in overall range.

    I think the estimates of a 50 and 60 KWH version is probably a pretty good guess for what to expect. A larger battery would require pushing batteries up above the skateboard which loses cargo or passenger space and messes with the balance of the car. Remember the footprint for the battery pack will be smaller because the car will have a shorter wheelbase and it will be narrower. Currently both our cars are ICE cars, but my car has the same wheelbase and width of a Model S and my SO has the same wheelbase and width of a BMW 3 series. My car has a significantly larger footprint than her car.
  • Oct 15, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    If we assume 10% lower consumption, which might be more realistic, 60 and 80 kWh battery options would mean ranges of 218 miles and 280 miles. That should still be acceptable.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Remember also that the Model 3 will use a slightly larger cell format, which will increase the volumetric density for the whole pack. As well as an improved chemistry that's better both in volumetric and gravimetric density.

    Exactly how the pack will look is hard to say, except that it will cover as much of the floor as possible. But what we can say is that Tesla has indicated strongly that the base model should have at least 200 miles EPA range, maybe closer to 240 miles EPA range so that the real life range is over 200 miles in most conditions. Maybe 240 Wh/mile is plausible (the i3 is at 232 Wh/mile), but you're assuming the entire pack is available, something it's not. You can get around 75 kWh out of a 85 kWh battery pack, which is 88% of the maximum pack capacity. If you get 88% out of a 50 kWh pack and have a consumption of 240 Wh/mile, that'll be 183 miles range. That's too low. The 60 kWh works out to 220 miles, which is acceptable for the base model, but Tesla should really offer a pack with closer to 300 miles range.
  • Oct 15, 2015
    ProphetM
    I think it's relatively pointless at this stage to even be making a guess about pack size. The tech is changing too fast. It doesn't really matter to me what the physical pack size is anyway; it's the actual range that matters, and I have no doubt that the smallest pack size will be enough for 220-240 miles EPA range. I am hoping for the largest pack to be in the area of 300-320 miles EPA. I think it would be a big milestone for them to have a range above 300 available, whatever size pack that takes.
  • Oct 15, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Technology changes, physics doesn't. Given what we know about the Model 3 regarding size and other characteristics, it needs around 60 kWh for 220 miles EPA range. Maybe less if you can use the entire battery, can drop the side-view mirrors or something similar, maybe more if it's poorly designed in some way.
  • Feb 20, 2016
    Hover
    What it should have- Manual seats with GREAT lumbar support, door pockets, manual mirrors(Gasp!), fold down rear seats, Model S's video display(hey- if the software is already done, toss it in!), cheaper steering wheel than a Mercedes, easier to pull apart to do body repair, conventional handles, cruise control, single zone AC- maybe even manual AC.

    What we don't have on the S that I want- a little Garmin-like "here's the speed limit on the road you're currently traveling on" sign on the primary display. Better viewing of full song title(scrolling), better nav mode- waypoints, trip storage with owner labeling(including doing it on the app, and sending to the car, if that's doable), scheduling time of start of charging, and a little "eyebrow" over the backup camera, so it works in the rain, and "Snow Mode" that leaves wipers, door handles, battery, etc., ready for a bad winter storm, and "Scheduled Wakeup"- where the car preheats the battery pack and defrosts the windows, etc., on a set time AND DATE (with a "repeat daily", "Repeat M-F" function).

    What they should have but only as an option? A HUD! (Heads up Display for speed, not too much more). Air ride suspension, tow package(including a prewired wiring harness for trailer lights), Lane Change Alert, AWD, Mini-SUV or Mini-Crossover body with adjustable height that you can keep for deep snow, rear window wipers, front side window/mirror defrost, Supercharger, enhanced controls on Valet/Teenager mode (Sliders for speed and power available to them), more of a description on the song titles, Roof Rack System for the Kayaker, biker, skiers in all of us(team with Thule or such?), and a Dog Option- Cordura seats, claw resistant door panels, dog friendly (can't stand on them) window switches. Remote power and location for a radar detector or EZPass, and a "Sport Package"- a cooler grille, slightly faster acceleration, bigger/better fog lights, rear Euro Style very low mounted brake light for fog, a slightly more aggressive nose piece, different wheels, blackout or body color options, spoiler, different rear valence, and maybe something else the SEMA crowds are doing now to their cars. Finally, a "Home Emergency Power" plug and cable to power your home in an emergency.
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