Jan 31, 2014
Discoducky Thanks for Johan for posting this pic in the investor chat thread and noting that there should be a feed from www.teslamotors.com
�
Jan 31, 2014
Mario Kadastik Please someone record it as I will be driving at the time and then mushing with dogs, but woukd love to watch it afterwards.�
Jan 31, 2014
Benz Well, if Tesla Motors are themselves going to provide a link to a livestream via their website, then we may expect that some announcement will be made in Oslo. I am glad that it's early in the morning for people here in Europe. In California it will be 1 am at night.�
Jan 31, 2014
callmesam I will stay up to watch :wink:�
Jan 31, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well, it could be big in Norway, since they've had the charging problems, so maybe they'll officially announce the update with the fix.�
Jan 31, 2014
772 Ugh, another late night.. don't do this to me Elon :crying:�
Jan 31, 2014
MikeC Hey, at least it's a Friday. Is this his last stop on the European tour?�
Jan 31, 2014
NigelM Will be 4.00am here on the East Coast; no live posting from me this time.....�
Jan 31, 2014
qwk Where exactly is this feed on the Tesla website? I must be blind, because I have searched, and not found anything.�
Jan 31, 2014
FredTMC Yeah, id like to watch this. Only an hour from now...
its shown on the Norway tesla homepage but it's not clickable
Tesla Motors | Førsteklasses elektriske biler�
Jan 31, 2014
Johan The .../no_NO/ frontpage now looks like this:
But still no direct link to the feed.�
Feb 1, 2014
FredTMC Yep thx. I saw the same. Looks like it'll be a working link during the event
- - - Updated - - -
Video link is on the site now�
Feb 1, 2014
772 yes, the video link says it will start at 10 CET�
Feb 1, 2014
FredTMC must...stay....awake...�
Feb 1, 2014
lorih I am awake. Anyone posting a video?�
Feb 1, 2014
FredTMC Simple. Select Norway on tesla site. It's on the homepage�
Feb 1, 2014
772 I think the video is starting soon hopefully
EDIT: it's live!�
Feb 1, 2014
MikeC The link above is working.�
Feb 1, 2014
772 The venue is much larger than the others in Amsterdam and Munich.�
Feb 1, 2014
Benz The Norwegians have arranged this event very well. There will be some (big) announcement today.�
Feb 1, 2014
772 It seems like it... the place is packed :biggrin:�
Feb 1, 2014
brianman Tesla Motors | Førsteklasses elektriske biler
- - - Updated - - -
Ditto. Let's see if I can type at 1am still...�
Feb 1, 2014
Benz Looks like they have made some preparations for something important. I am expecting something to be announced here today. I love it already.�
Feb 1, 2014
lorih Thanks!�
Feb 1, 2014
772 I hadn't even noticed the second floor seating area. People are still coming in�
Feb 1, 2014
Benz Munich and Amsterdam should have been prepared like this as well.�
Feb 1, 2014
lorih These events are arranged by Tesla, so I am guessing this one is going to be special�
Feb 1, 2014
Benz Elon Musk and JB Straubel have both come to Europe for something really important, and today we are going to find that out.�
Feb 1, 2014
772 wonder how many people are watching the stream. Only 28 users in this TMC thread right now... wake up people! :tongue:�
Feb 1, 2014
lorih What is with the camera guy spooning in on pretty blonde women?�
Feb 1, 2014
FredTMC I wondered same.... Fine by me though�
Feb 1, 2014
772 Right now they are playing the Winter Driving Redefined video: Winter Driving Redefined - YouTube�
Feb 1, 2014
lorih Just saw that autocorrect changed "zooming" to "spooning", even funnier that way...
first time I saw it, I thought it might be Talulah, but it wasn't, and then he found two other women as well. (I am assuming camera person is a guy..statistically 90% or greater?)�
Feb 1, 2014
LuckyLuke He just announced intelligent (live traffic) navigation in v6 firmware
(This was also hinted at in Amsterdam)�
Feb 1, 2014
772 Elon: Goal is to drop cost/kWh by 40% for Gen III. Need 30 GWh/yr of battery production for Gen III. Need giga-factory.�
Feb 1, 2014
Benz JB Straubel said: "At least 100 Superchargers in Europe".
FANTASTIC�
Feb 1, 2014
byeOpec Elon just sorta confirmed 4wd Model s!�
Feb 1, 2014
brianman Best I could do from 1-3AM...
Oslo
2014/02/01
(Opens with a video of an owner talking about his car.)
(Musk and Straubel tag team introduced.)
With version 6 of the software, which is in testing, we'll be adding real-time traffic.
You'll also get internet music and be able to ask for any song at any time.
We'll be adding in a bunch more suspension functionality. Much wider range of speeds, ... (I missed some)
full control over suspension. Snow at higher speed. Add more functionality to the
suspension of the vehicle.
More than doubling the superchargers in Norway, and on the way to Europe.
Almost anywhere in Europe by the end of this year. And certainly to Paris. Focus on some of the key connecting routes.
Norway will have the highest superchargers per capita, by far, in the world.
(Some discussion of the technical challenges with Norway charging.
Safety features confused by the variance in the grid, etc.)
Q & A
Q1: If we already have the S, why should we buy the X?
A(JB): One great benefit, other than more space, is AWD. Lot more cargo space. Full seven passengers. More ground clearance.
A(EM): Preference issue. Sedan vs. SUV. The X will be bigger, obviously taller. Handling and acceleration will be better on sedan than SUV.
Q2: Our car is messy due to empty center console area.
A(EM): Drop in center console will be available. We wanted an open space... but intended for it to be modular.
Q3: Social media. Production and coal based energy. Example from media of Model S not as green as you think.
A(EM): In terms of energy consumption, Norway is extremely green because of the hydro power...no carbon emissions. Generally when they do these calculations, they assume the world doesn't go to sustainable power production... but it has to. But both sides of the equation (sustainable power generation and consumption) need to be solved. For most of the world, I think it's going to be solar. In terms of the production of the car itself, it's not really different from a gasoline car from standpoint of constituent elements. Number of analyses that are incorrect.
A(JB): Decided to do our own study. We've done that whole study internally, and probably will release a whitepaper to answer a lot of these critics. The energy payback driving a Model S happens quite quickly. In miles... less than 10,000 miles.
Q4: What's your strategy to keep Tesla ahead of the game.
A(EM): Our goal is that the big car companies *do* copy Tesla. The biggest positive impact we'll have is by getting other companies ... sustainable transport faster. I don't know why they're taking so long. If we make great cars, people will buy them; if we don't, they shouldn't buy them.
Q5: Looking 5-8 years ahead, how many kWh can you put into a battery and at what cost?
A(EM): Potential for bigger battery packs in the future. Maybe next year... Main focus is to figure out how to get to our 3rd generation car... cost. The goal of Tesla has always been to make a compelling mass market car. Money that Tesla makes from the Model S and X goes to that. An affordable electric car that's great. Model S is a great car but it's expensive. The Leaf is not that great, but is affordable. Missing thing is to have something that's both.
Q5B: No number projections right now?
A(EM): Proprietary. Difficult to say an exact thing. Goal is to drop cost/kWh by at least 30%, but at least 40% for high volume car. Bigger deal is capacity. We have to make a factory that's very big. Gigafactory... about 30 GWh/yr of production. If you add all the factories in China, Korean, Japan today... this factory would be bigger than that.
Q6: Please make it possible to disable stability control.
A(EM): I'm told it's illegal to disable stability control.
A(JB): In the U.S.
Q6B: Not on tracks though...
A(EM): We'll look into that. Safety is number one....
Q7: Uphill starting. The car hold while you start. Without manual brake, making a very fine-tuned uphill start on snow is difficult. Ask you to put in a function to hold it on a steep so you can take it directly from standstill without going a few centimeters backwards.
A(EM): An active hill hold. Instead of creep. Which is generally what people want... and imprecisely achieved by creep. That is something that we're working on. Needs to have the right behavior in all circumstances.
A(JB): We definitely are working on that. We can confirm that.
Q8: Can you supply a performance package? 200 km/h is too slow. Please think about high performance.
A(EM): Higher top speed?
A(JB): It's something we know we could improve upon. We should be able to go faster in some conditions. A higher top speed is something worth having down the road.
Q9: ... Tesla will bring the first truly autonomous car to market?
A(EM): Likely. We call it autopilot ... analogous to the way aircraft operate. You can engage an autopilot for most of the journey. Corner cases... expectations for an autonomous car for safety will be at least a factor of 10 higher than for a person. Active safety features. Active safety in the limit becomes autonomy. Highest priority is to identify sensor suite ... hardware. Software can be upgraded over time. Not the right time to say more. It is a longterm priority of Tesla. I think we'll be the first to market with significant autonomy.
Q10: With the huge gap you created, do you anticipate Tesla becoming the biggest car manufacturer in the world? How do you see the traditional car industry surviving in the long term.
A(EM): (Deep laugh.) Best vote of confidence I've heard in a long time. The goal is not market share for its own sake. Sustainable transport sooner rather than later. We had to make it a no-brainer to have an electric car. Previous cars have been like golf carts. Had to show people an electric car could be the best car. (Some discussion about current market of cars.)
A(JB): Most important thing is ... make the product excellent and amazing.
A(EM): Good chance that Tesla ends up making more than half a million cars a year. Long way to go.
Q11: Any thought to Model X have a removable back seat for more cargo space?
A(EM): Will have a removable 3rd row. Ah, you mean removal of the 2nd row. Interesting idea. Would be expensive for a delivery van but would be pretty awesome.
Q12: (Ed: I missed the kid's question.)
A(EM): For the foreseeable future, we'll be focused on cars. But I do have this idea for ... plane. Focused on cars but exciting potential for air transport. Not just supersonic but for vertical takeoff and landing.
Q13: Dimensions of Model X? Falcon doors and roof. How are we to bring our skiing stuff into the mountains?
A(EM): Design of the X has been a very hard design problem. Aesthetics and functionality to work together... particular difficult for SUVs. Want it to be as stunning as one can make an SUV. The design problem for the X is 2-3x harder than for the S. Wheelbase the same, and overall length very very close... to Model S; within 5cm on length. Height shouldn't be a problem for normal garage. Maximizing internal volume when looking at packaging for the doors, for example; rigid but not deep.
A(EM): With both doors open, there's a triangular space between the doors. Place for a ski box potentially. Other place would be on the inside, slide it longitudinally under the seats.
Q13B: Option to open one of the doors at a time? Half a meter ski box. 4WD... will take more batteries? Are you looking into bigger battery package so we can keep same mileage as Model S? Am I right to say you will keep the falcon doors in production model?
A(EM): Show cars that never come to reality... shouldn't do that. For sure, anything we show will make it to production. Any car that is shown as a prototype to customers, the production car must be better.
A(EM): Challenge with the X is not the AWD but the fact that the car will have a greater frontal area, and slightly higher drag coefficient. Energy consumption about 10% greater per km. Unrelated to power train.
A(JB): Typical experience of AWD is that the efficiency will be worse. We've worked really hard to not have that same effect. We found some clever ways with dual motor AWD, not just mechanical linkage. To make that an efficiency neutral option. Breakthrough. Flat efficiency tradeoff.
Q13C: Showed the car with fairly high-tech mirrors. Will they reach production, or will it have conventional mirrors?
A(EM): Constrained by regulators on side mirrors. They're like little air brakes. It would be great to get rid of them in favor of cameras, which are much lower form factor. Definitely going to have that longterm, but the question is regulatory approval.
A(JB): Internally... better for visibility, etc. (Sighs.)
A(EM): Having cameras instead of mirrors is a meaningful improvement for cars.
Q14: Miss the navigation scrolling on BMW. On Leaf, I miss forward back on scroller.
A(EM): Not sure I understand the concern on the scroller. (He describes existing functionality on the S.)
Q14B: (question about voiding the warranty when doing some custom professional work on seats)
A(EM): Might lose the warranty on the seat, but not the whole car.
Q14C: Back gets dirty quickly. Something with turbulence? Perhaps move the camera a little bit higher?
A(EM): With V6, you'll be able to set the ride height manually -- almost 2 inches higher. Widened the band where you can set the ride height, approximately double what you can do now.
Q15: Where do you seek inspiration (besides family, friends, colleagues)?
A(EM): Customers, hearing feedback. Reading biographies, history is very interesting. If you read about industries that are not your own, you can get ideas from cross-fertilization of different industries. Very helpful to understand different industries for inspiration.
Q16: (Enable travel to Crotia?)
A(EM): Good supercharger coverage for Croatia, Serbia.
A(JB): Supercharger network is not something where we plan to finish it. Constant feedback from customers through and into Gen3. Almost like a road system. Better over time, and keep investing.
A(EM): Also improving core technology. First 90 kW, now 120 kW... later this year most stations 135 kW.
Q16B: Boat...batteries...solar panels....
A(EM): Would be really great to have electric boats, planes, and everything. Got to stay focused on cars. Probably be a while before we get into boats, and not sure if we will get into boats. Other companies for sure will make electric boats.
A(JB): Long-term future is electric propulsion for most of these modes of transport. We just can't do it all ourselves.
Q17: From the wife... Is it possible to take the BMW seats out, and put them into a Tesla?
A(EM): Improved seat comfort? (Laugh.) I agree. The seats should be more comfortable. There is an upgraded seat that we're working on. Pretty sure it can be offered as a retrofit. I think one element is going into production this week or next week. I'm 90% sure they can be offered as a future upgrade. Element... adjusts the springs on the seat. One thing that's not quite right about the front seats is that the spring force is too high under the center of the butt. Raises you too much out of the seat. By modifying the spring force you sit better in the seat. Fairly easy thing to modify for existing seats. Looking to see if we can offer this for a minor cost. Longer term there's a bigger seat upgrade but that's probably more like a year. Seats are harder to modify than you might think because of the safety aspect. Sensor pad for the airbag for how heavy, and where located in the seat to adjust decision on how to deploy the airbag.
Q17B: (Question about backseat material to cover the back seat for people with dogs.)
A(EM): Sounds like a good idea. Our labrador has done some damage to the backseat. We'll add that to the list. Good suggestion.
Q17C: Better stereo. Consider the high end stuff.
A(EM): I haven't personally experienced a car that's better. Assuming you ordered the hi-fi checkbox, I would put that up against any other car. However, there is no improvement in the radio reception. Something we're working.
A(JB): DAB. There's some work we have to do on that. And some improvements coming.
Q18: ... bluetooth ...
A(EM): I'm not sure it's the chip.
A(JB): Antenna reception problem in some cases.
A(EM): It should be coming through pretty well. First I've heard of this concern. We should have the high fidelity feed coming through well.
Q19: In the winter with the ski box, I have to pitstop to charge. I'd love to know when are the new superchargers coming, and where. When we have an adapter for CCS?
A(JB): Mennekes type 2? We have an adapter for CHAdeMO coming; releasing soon. There's many more CHAdeMO than the combined standard. Waiting to see adoption of the standard... Entirely possible, and we can adapt and use that.
Q20: (?)
A(JB): Available here in about April.
Q21: Lifecycle analysis... If you could double the life expectancy of a car, it could have a big environmental impact. I never see this debated anywhere. Model S. Aluminum - won't rust to pieces. Drivetrain efficiency. A lot of possibilities to become a car that would outlast the other manufacturers' cars. I miss this issue of life expectancy and robustness in the PR and debate.
A(EM): Model S should last a long time. Electric motors have a long life-time. In general, for the power train it should have a longer life than gasoline... no wear and tear, moving cylinders, etc. With replacement of the pack in the 8-10 year period, car could easily last 20 years.
Q21B: Warranty?
A(EM): We made that to match the warranty of the U.S. What are the other makers doing... and match that. It's not a prediction that something bad is going to happen at the end of it. It may be something that we need to revisit.
Q21C: Why doesn't Model S have simple eyelits for security cargo when folding down the seats.
A(EM): Oversight in the design process.
Q22: About p!ssed about service... I want extra life. Dashcam, lead bars... voids warranty?
A(EM): Rule of thumb... modifications to the car might affect the warranty in the affected subsystem.
Q22B: Warranty was 5 years, then it went down to 4? Why so low compared to, for example, Ford...
A(EM): Someone perhaps misspoke regarding "5"... Goal was just to match premium cars offer as a warranty in the U.S.
Q23: Who do you consider as your main competitors businesswise? Or blue ocean w/o competitors?
A(EM): We don't think about competitors. Just about how we make the best possible cars.
Q24: Where does all our data go, and how do you store that data? Are you storing it green, or should we make space for you here to store with us?
A(EM): Only data we store long-term is diagnostic data. To see if the car might need servicing. For example, monitoring a 12V that might be due for service. Meant for diagnostics information. We don't store speed or position data. Can be obtained real-time in an emergency. Is it stored in a green way? Probably not.
Q25: (question about hierarchy of car makers, with Tesla at the lead) Expand the market to other car companies.
A(EM): We have partnerships with Toyota and MB. What we found with other companies is that there motivations are not great. They want to make the least EVs required by law. Competitive pressure seems to be the main driver of them going electric.
Q26: (question about the X doors and ferries)
A(EM): There will be proximity sensors on the door that analyze the environment and automatically stop before hitting the top of the garage roof or the car next to you. Will change the opening dynamics according to the environment.
A(JB): Should be able to open the doors in a much narrower space.
Q27: Superchargers in Stockholm, Sweden, ... summer?
A(EM): Should be pretty close. Can't say for sure. By end of summer, probably likely.
A(JB): Planning to add at least 100 superchargers throughout Europe this year.
Q28: Silicon Valley. Do you think it would happen anywhere else?
A(EM): It's about the probability of success. Highest in Silicon Valley. Could have been done in southern California where SpaceX. Conceivably Austin, TX, or Boston. The probability of success would be much lower anywhere else.
Q28B: When can we meet so I can help you solve the high quality audio problem?
A(EM): We want to get it as close to perfection as possible.
Q29: Can you guarantee us shorter delivery times in Norway? Will you be able to provide residual value guarantees, to facility lease? Stock price... are you still unsure whether you deserve this high stock price?
A(EM): Given stock price is 10x our trailing revenue, it's difficult to say one deserve. It's higher than we have any right to deserve. Frankly I prefer if it was not going like a big rollercoaster. It creates a distraction for people at Tesla; you don't want it to be a mood barometer.
A(EM): Residual value guarantee... I think we could probably do something like that in Norway. We feel the residual value will be meaningfully higher than the guarantee. It may or may not be necessary. It's really just to give people comfort.
A(EM): Delivery... Prioritized Norway in the first quarter, more than any other country in Europe. Prioritized it as much as we really can without shortchanging other countries. Our top priority this quarter.
Q30: Model X...Sig reservation 1. When? Hopefully the time between the launch in the U.S. and Europe will be shorten than for the S.
A(EM): S was the first car we made ourselves completely. We wanted the first units near to the factory and engineering center. A lot less changing about the X, and more infrastructure. Gap between initial production and arrival to Norway should be much shorter... a couple months. Guess around middle of next year for the X to arrive here (Norway). Volume production of the X in U.S. will probably be end of the first quarter next year.
Q30B: (?)
A(EM): Potentially for AWD Model S. For the next several months, certainly not be there. Close to when an X happens. Not soon.
Q31: Will it possible to move forward the deliveries of the Model X (due to the incentives cap of 50,000 vehicles)?
A(EM): I'm hearing the cap will probably be raised to a higher number than 50,000. My guess is it's going to be raised. Probably be okay for Model X.
Q32: (Ed: Missed another question.
A(EM): Lines not in v6, but perhaps a dot release.
A(EM): Adaptive cruise control. Sensors mean it can't just be a software upgrade. On our roadmap for sure.
Q33: Could you tell me about plans for connected car features?
A(EM): Lot of potential for applying network intelligence to cars. Sharing traffic blockage information; an important part of navigation. Will be in our navigation software.�
Feb 1, 2014
SteveW25561 Elon also stated lines on the rear view camera will be coming on the software roadmap! I hope he's right since many think there's a hardware limitation to do graphical overlays on the current Model S touchscreen.�
Feb 1, 2014
772 Thanks for the transcript brian... lots of stuff discussed here.
I thought the important stuff was the version 6.0 changes, no plans to make AWD Model S until Model X is out, expanded EU supercharging (100 station by the end of this year), and improved seats coming soon (as well as a bigger upgrade next year).
Oh and of course he also mentioned they're at 30K/yr run rate and 135kW supercharging will be coming. Regarding Gen III, he said they need to make 30 GigaWh of battery production a year for it (which is why they will need their giga-factory). He also thinks Tesla will be the first car maker with significant autonomous car driving technology.�
Feb 1, 2014
Benz Thanks Brian, well done.�
Feb 1, 2014
Cattledog Great summary Brian. My big takeaways (all paraphrasing, not my opinions):
. Tesla likely first to market with 'autonomous' car.
. Potential for Tesla to be making millions of cars, more than 500,000 per year.
. Active hill-hold and higher top speed in development
. Larger batteries possible starting in about a year (my op. - with Model X intro, also available to S)
. No loss of efficiency going to AWD in X, less efficient drag coefficient and larger frontal area.
. Cameras for rear viewing, replacing mirrors, safer and more intuitive - held up by regulators.
. Super chargers transitioning to 135 kW
. Model X doors will adjust curve profile based on sensor input of adjacent environment (!)
. Potential for AWD model S when introduced for X.
OK, back to bed.�
Feb 1, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Q30: Will there be an AWD Model S?
Q32: Two small practical issues. Will we get backup lines? Most other cars have them? Also, when will we get adaptive cruise?
A(EM) We are working on it... +brianman's
(Was in bed, woke up, couldn't get back to sleep, remembered Norway meet).�
Feb 1, 2014
moollar Legend Brian! :biggrin: I ended up logging on to the live stream from about Q15, so really appreciate your summary.
Interesting to hear AWD for the Model S is likely to happen next year after Model X is in full production.
Haven't heard him say that directly before. If they can reduce the battery cost by 40% for Gen III, that will shake things up quite a bit I would imagine. Also would lead to incredible opportunities for the Model S and X if they can drop battery costs by at least the 30% figure he mentioned.�
Feb 1, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney I suspect thst Model SX wouldn't see the price drop as quickly, since Tesla has the new contract that requires new capacity.�
Feb 1, 2014
moollar Yeah, that was my initial thoughts too. Maybe I'm taking quotes out of context.
Still, I guess it doesn't stop them from offering larger capacity packs next year though. Even if the cells won't be substantially cheaper, they might be able to offer it to people willing to pay.�
Feb 1, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Right, I just figured that the SX will be "stuck" with current 18650 format until 2018/2019 ends the current contract, but it wouldn't necessarily restrict them from getting density changes, as long as the production changes weren't too significant.
Larger capacity:
~ range: taxis, cold weather, Supercharger skips/holes, boxier vehicles
~ performance: need whole "Supersport" upgrade if inverter and motors are at limits
~ charging rate: Supercharger limits, but later taper
~ discharge rate: heavier so less efficient, but lower overall.�
Feb 1, 2014
jkirkebo What limitation would that be? The stability control system already requires a steering angle sensor, and so do the curve lights.�
Feb 1, 2014
Lessmog Great distill of Oslo Q&A, Brian! Big thanks.
The guy wanted to install more light, like a LED bar, but was told by service that would void his warranty for the battery pack. Which sounds a bit baseless to me. Though it might need a beefier 12V pack and charger, I guess.
There was some discussion on a Swedish forum about extra high-beam lights a while ago and this was mentioned: Visualeyes Rayzer, a small dual xenon projector that mounts in front of the mirror, so it doesn't get dirty.
Disclaimer: I have no interest in the company, but I might buy the product for my Tesla (once I have that;-) )�
Feb 1, 2014
AlMc Thanks to all who stayed up late, and particularly Brian, for the great info. I am one of those waiting (im)patiently for an AWD S, so I was hoping for one sooner than later but good to know that it will happen.�
Feb 1, 2014
Theshadows There may be a graphics card limitation. That the display doesn't do graphic overlays because the camera turns off if a dialog or a drop down menu covers it.�
Feb 1, 2014
krla you can watch the full thing here: http://bcove.me/8drqwgp8�
Feb 1, 2014
FANGO One thing I wish Elon would have said, in response to the teenager who asked him the question about leading other manufacturers to make electric cars, is that competitive pressure comes from consumer demand. He should start hitting home the point that if you want cars to go electric, you need to demand electric cars, which means you need to stop buying gas cars, period. Buying a gas car will only add demand for gas cars, which will make manufacturers continue to do the same thing. I know a lot of people who like electric cars in theory, who wish all cars would be electric, who know all cars need to be electric, but who have not committed to make their next car electric, to never buy a gas car again, or any other thing of the sort. Several years ago I made the commitment that I would not buy a gas car again, I drove my Jeep until it was basically dead and I found a good deal on a used Roadster, and now I drive a Roadster and plan never go to back to gas as my primary vehicle. All consumers need to do this as well. And consumers who like the idea of EVs in theory need to be reminded that their vote matters, and that what they do shapes the market. Every person who buys an electric car and shows it off to their friends does a lot for the future of the automative industry, especially when there are so few EVs out there on the whole. So while I liked his swagger when he mentioned competitive pressure, I think it would have been good if he reminded consumers that competitive pressure comes solely from consumer demand. It is us, the consumers, who will make this happen. Tesla helps by making a car which consumers want, but if consumers refused to buy gas, then the problem would be solved immediately.�
Feb 1, 2014
Andre @ fango +1�
Feb 1, 2014
AlMc Yes, well said FANGO. He is getting better each time I listen to him. I like his genuineness (a word?) and I think that allows him to connect well with his audience but you are on point with this suggestion/criticism of the way he handles this question.�
Feb 1, 2014
FluxCap Brian, thank you so much for the fantastic transcript. Some real gems of information in there, very very exciting future. This just shows that Elon is not stopping innovation, constantly perfecting and pushing the envelope in optimum directions. I love it!�
Feb 1, 2014
Zaxxon Brian, thanks.
Fango, I had the same thought. Although I thought that on the whole, Elon and JB answered the questions very well.�
Feb 1, 2014
Krugerrand Very poignant point, Fango. I think we're all hoping that consumers will take that final stance when Gen III comes out. That vehicle will leave few excuses left for a good majority of people to ever buy an ICE car again. That's really been the issue to date, many can find too many excuses why an EV won't work for them. But as we know, those excuses are running out - fast.�
Feb 1, 2014
mrdoubleb So 2 pieces of information related to range/batteries caught my attention and I am not sure how I feel about them.
On the one hand, Elon said that bigger battery backs could be offered sometime next year. Now the news itself is very good and I was looking for hints on the next big battery revision for some time now. However, they way he said it made it seem less like a firm plan they have in place (i.e. they are already planning on doing that in 2015) and more like a possibility, almost a guess.
The other thing was Model X range. They were saying they expect a 10% loss in range due to the X being a bigger and maybe heavier car. Fair enough, the laws of physics apply to every car (except for Audi Q8 e-tron PR spins :tongue
What do you guys think?�
Feb 1, 2014
gg_got_a_tesla @fango, I understand where you are coming from but, I'd rather Elon think and talk like a capitalist - and he's an excellent one, of course! - rather than act preachy or imploring or somewhere in between. He's always stated his goal (of sustainable transportation) and the means to it - making high-performance, wonderful-to-live-with, sexy cars that folks will end up craving (the electric drivetrain doesn't necessarily have to enter the equation there).�
Feb 1, 2014
RobStark He does not want customers putting off buying an 85kWh Model S so they can buy an AWD 110 kWh Model S in 18 months.
Elon wants customers who are ready to buy today to buy an 85 now and upgrade to a 110 in three years.
- - - Updated - - -
You should speak to your audience. To Green Norwegian Social Democrats he should preach to the choir. Amen! Brother Elon!
Speaking like an Anglo-Saxon Capitalist in Norway might get him tarred and feathered; or the Scandanavian equivalent.
When asserting his right to freely sell cars to willing Texas customers in Texas he should sound like an Anglo-Saxon capitalist.
As long as you don't grotesquely contradict yourself because YouTube is worldwide�
Feb 1, 2014
FANGO Responding to Rob's comment only because it's most recent...
1) Responding to others in this chain of comments: I think the idea of a bigger battery seeming like an afterthought rather than a firm plan is probably correct. I do not think Tesla has a firm plan to increase battery sizes and range perpetually. I think they will stop where they are, or possibly add one larger battery and then stop there, because much more than 300 miles is ridiculous (and even 300 miles is ridiculous for the vast majority of use cases, I'm talking over 99%). Perception is important, though, which is the reason a big battery is important early on.
And as you say, Rob, telling people something better is coming soon may make them delay a purchase. But I don't think that's the motivation, I think the motivation is that Tesla knows consumers do not need bigger battery packs (though consumers may think they want bigger ones) - Elon and JB are both on record as saying this many times, that more range than what the Model S has is not really necessary, and that they could make a car with a huge range right now but it would be expensive and lousy. This is why so much focus on superchargers.
2) Absolutely about speaking to your audience. Also, remember, he doesn't "speak like a capitalist" very often, he says over and over that the motivation of the company is not to make money but is to move the world and industry forward. That's not really what a capitalist says, most of the time. And, acknowledging consumers' participation in the process would be a particularly enlightened thing for a capitalist to do, because in truth, the consumer is the capitalist's full reason for existence.�
Feb 1, 2014
Discoducky @BrianMan, thanks for the great transcript!
My biggest takeaway is that X will have the same wheelbase, the same width (overall) and nearly the same length (~5cm longer). Now I know I won't have to buy a new house!
For the rest of the information: It was great and know that we are going to hear quite a bit more information on the 19th�
Feb 1, 2014
jerry33 I keep hearing this from people, but to me that seems to be 1970's EV thinking: "You have an EV and the technology isn't there yet so you have to make excuses instead of doing it right". Even in the best case, it will be decades before every possible route will be covered with Superchargers (means scenic state highways in addition to boring, and often unsafe, interstates). Very few gas cars do less than 300 miles and many do 500 miles plus--yet there are gas stations almost everywhere. This isn't about perception--it's about practicality.�
Feb 1, 2014
woof Well, practically every house has a electric charging spot in it already, so the need for a "station" on every corner is reduced greatly from existing gasoline infrastructure.
As for a 300 mile range being "good enough", I agree--but only when those 300 miles can be achieved under all conditions. The 85 kWh Model S can go about 200 miles in all conditions today. They need at least 33% more battery capacity, and/or equivalent efficiency gains, to reach that.�
Feb 1, 2014
772 Gas stations need to be everywhere because ICE drivers can't pull gasoline from their walls. So, we have cities with lots of gas stations because lots of people need gas stations close to them. However, with every home already having power outlets, the need for high-speed charging stations will be mostly for low density areas with lots of thru-traffic. I'm sure cities will eventually get high speed charging as well, but they won't need to blanket cities like gas stations do.�
Feb 1, 2014
roblab OK, Tesla says 300 mile battery packs are big enough. But you and I know that driving 80+ mph on the I-5 or the I-95 yields about 200 miles. Most gassers will get 300 miles of range on a tank at freeway speeds. So Tesla is saying, "You don't need more than 8 gallons of gas, so the tank is 8 gallons". No. The competition is giving you 300 miles of range, and bragging about it, and you get to stop every 125 miles for a supercharge and spend 20 to 30 minutes for 200 miles of charge, which is less than 200 miles at freeway speeds.
They need more range. More real range. At speeds where people drive, not where I drive at 62 miles per hour so I can get 300 miles of range.
The first Supercharger on my route (not making a 50 mile detour to and back) is 230 miles from my house. Then it's 230 miles again to the next one, unless I detour 45 miles out of my way to a closer one not on my route.
Sure, there will be a lot of Superchargers some day, but even on the future maps for superchargers, there are none planned for, let's say, Bend, Oregon to Ontario, Oregon. If you happen to have relatives in Ontario, or Idaho, even, or Coeur d'Alene, there are not superchargers planned to get to Bend without hundreds of miles of detours. Of course, some of you may not drive more than 50 miles from home, but I have, I do, I will continue. I have 36,000 miles on my car.
You need a bigger battery alternative.�
Feb 1, 2014
DaveT Elon mentioned a 500 mile battery pack in the future during a quarterly earnings call last year.
It'll come but it will just take some time. He also said every 4-5 years they'll be able to do a step change in battery improvement.�
Feb 1, 2014
RobStark The reality is people are expecting 300 real world miles then find out that is 100% range charge at a steady 55 mph in summer like conditions.
In standard charge you are looking at 245 real world miles and standard charge is what Tesla recommends for daily driving.
Then in winter standard charge drops to 215 miles or so.
Luxury sedans are not about needs but wants. A Nissan Leaf or an Accord Hybrid that does close to maybe 45 mpg city and 40 highway in real world conditions would satisfy most people's real world needs.
As Tesla expands the percentage of people buying to eliminate oil use and reduce their carbon foot print will shrink.
People will increasingly buy it because it is a very good car or because it is a very high performance car that also happens to be environmentally friendly.
Do people scream nobody needs a VW clean diesel that gets 700 miles per tank?
People do scream that nobody needs a Porsche that does 0-60 in under 4 seconds but people still buy them and VW/Porsche sell them very profitably anyway.
If Tesla is going to become a stable independent automaker long term it needs to reach at least 1 million units in world wide sales.
It needs to cater to different people, different budgets and different purposes.
VW has VW, Skoda, SEAT, Audi, Porsche, Bentley, Lamborghini, and Bugatti.
Tesla does not need to emulate VW but it does need a wide portfolio of vehicles.
I think it would be a cool if they made a Model E with the goal of being as efficient as possible, beating LEAFs 129 MPGe.
I think it would also be cool to make a Model E Performance Plus, that spanks a BMW M3.
Different strokes for different folks.�
Feb 1, 2014
ecarfan He said the X aerodynamics will negatively impact the cars range, he didn't say the rated range of the X would be less than the S. I think the X may debut with 10 to 15% larger battery options than the S currently offers.�
Feb 1, 2014
bint2k I'm sad no one asked Elon about the Tesla-Fighter Audi coming out� the Q8?!?�. I also love that people will soon realize that a Model S/X/E is going to last them many years longer then any other ICE car they've owned before (in terms of aluminum not rusting, parts of the car not falling apart, hoses not exploding in engine bays, etc). I only hope that Tesla will continue improving all of their cars features by retrofitting them in as many ways possible ie. Updating the Computer/Graphics Card running the screen so the car doesn't feel laggy in 5 years when Computer Technology/Interfaces change�. Imagine a Kinect type system in the car where you could just wave your arm to open the sunroof. Elon and JB were smart in getting people in a room for a Q&A =) I hope they hold events like this more often.�
Feb 1, 2014
Mario Kadastik Rated range (205 Wh/km) at 100% for EU cars is ~400km. In January with -19..-22 being common I averaged 294 Wh/km. Meaning that my maximum range was 280km or 175 miles. That's not a 300 mile pack. Yes when I instead drive consistently and in row the heating etc drops off and I get on average more likely 300-330km, but that's still ~190-200 miles. So a bigger pack to get you realistically also 300 miles in winter would be excellent. That's probably around 400 mile pack or 110kWh.�
Feb 1, 2014
mrdoubleb They said you would be losing 10% of your range as it's a bigger car with higher range. They did say that out loud. And nothing that they said made me think they would add a bigger battery to compensate, in fact, when they were talking about bigger battery packs, it seemed like an afterthought.
I agree with the points the "two Robs" made above. Even if the Model S did 300 miles no matter what, it would be a really foolish argument to say "you don't need the 500-700 mile diesels, you just think you do". Especially when you consider it takes 20 minutes to get to 170 miles, while an ICE refuels 500 miles in 5 minutes. Add to that, real world range is 200 miles with highway speeds (85mph / 130kmh) and even less in bad weather (wind, cold, heat).
And the "you have electricity everywhere" argument is only valid if you have a garage at home with a HPWC. And even that takes 4-5 hours so it only counts as an advantage when you start your trip. You can't just plug in at random people's houses and take a 38 hour break using their 110v plug....
Don't get me wrong, I am a huge fan and crazy about this car/company, but we need a reality check from time to time. In my opinion, a real world 400-500 mile range should be their midterm goal (2-3 years), with maybe a 15-33% percent boost to current packs in the short term (next 12 months). That would be the final nail in the coffin for the "ICE is better" argument.
And the final nail in the ICE coffin will be if, in the future, they can intorduce a cheaper brand (think Tesla's Skoda or VW at the least) with the current Model S range or more. That should be their 5-10 year plan. I like how Elon is all about pushing the big boys to switch to EV production, but this shouldn't go as far as handing market over to the ones who failed this planet so far. Imagine if GM or VW, or any of the big boys had really put all their resources in the past 10 years behind a long range, affordable EV. They would have had billions instead of millions and hundreds instead of dozens of engineers at their disposal. At some point they will either have to make that decision and try and work off Teslas 10 year advantage, or they have to license Tesla technology and pony up mountains of $$$.�
Feb 1, 2014
SteveW25561 Actually I was referring to another thread here where parking lines were discussed more in depth. Some have stated there might be a hardware limitation by the Tegra chipset in its ability to overlay graphics on top of a video feed (witness how the current implementation shifts the rear view camera video down if you activate home link, or if the camera image is in the lower half, it cuts off some of the temperature and volume pop up elements).
Others think the chipset IS capable but because Tesla has a custom OS they haven't optimized the drivers or APIs to access that function. I'm not a programmer nor have any knowledge beyond that.
I found it encouraging to hear about the parking lines from Elon himself (and find it intriguing your mention of the angle sensor -- I did not have any hope of dynamically moving lines according to steering wheel position, but now I might have some hope...).�
Feb 1, 2014
mrdoubleb Yeah, I think that car is the wikipedia definition of vaporware. Leaking info about a product 3-4 years out which seems to defy the laws of physics with no explanation. (700km range with a 80kwh battery, yeah right... maybe it runs on air or stardust).
That's nothing more than a desperate attempt to keep Audi fans from reservenig a Model X. "Oooh, I shuldn't spend 100k on a X in 2015, if Audi has a 2x as good e-SUV 2 years later!"�
Feb 2, 2014
GSP Thanks for posting this video of the event.
GSP�
Feb 2, 2014
jerry33 This is true, but it wasn't my point. My point was that for the foreseeable future, 300 miles isn't really enough because it will take a long time to get enough Superchargers to really cover every route (chances are I won't be here by then). Right now there are zero Superchargers along my most commonly traveled trip route, so it takes about 27 hours to drive instead of about 12. Yes, I only do this a couple of times a year so I can live with that time, but I'd much rather not have to.
If the car had a 600 mile range, I could make one four or five hour stop for charging--gaining the extra 100 miles--which would save ten hours of charging time. Sometime in the next couple of years there will be Superchargers along the Interstate routes, which will add about 100 miles to the trip and force me to drive on the truck and road debris filled Interstates. Yes, it will be faster than now, but not nearly so safe or pleasant.�
Feb 2, 2014
Theshadows I don't think it will take as long as you think. Elon stated this week that they are roughly turning on one supercharger per day globally. Also he stated that the network is not the goal. There isn't an end to it. This is just the beginning. When asked about Tesla becoming the largest car manufacture in the world he talked a lot about the massive charging infrastructure that needs to be installed.
They want to be the owners of that network. Firstly because no one else is doing it. Secondly they will have a monopoly on the best charging infrastructure in the world. Which gives them the flexibility years from now to lease out that network to other companies if they so desire, this generating more revenue for the company from other manufactures that they can spend on research and development to make even better cars/planes/chargers/batteries.
They won't have the density of existing gas stations because like stated above all local travel will come from home/work. But I believe they will have a fairly dense network such that a town with a population of 10-20k people will likely get one or two superchargers. And these will likely be at hotels or restaurants. Destination charging is huge on their list, so much so that there are ways for hotels and restaurants to get free hpwc's.
Look at the difference from 6 months ago. I think that one year from now the trips that we are fretting about now will be easily doable.�
Feb 2, 2014
Room_A113 I just saw J.B. Straubel and Diarmuid O'Connell at the Newark, Delaware Supercharger at 5:00AM. Did he take a red-eye to Philly, and meet up with the coast-to-coast team? I now see that Elon also joined them in NYC. Those guys get around!
�
Feb 2, 2014
Lessmog As I recall, both Elon and JB mentioned that before this year is over Tesla will have built another hundred superchargers globally and most of Western Europe will be reachable. Someone asked about making a trip from Norway to Paris (via Stockholm ??? ) by early summer, and that could be dubious, but Paris at the end of summer - certainly, said Elon. Or words to that effect.
During winter not much digging can be done due to snow and frost, but once spring sets in they will work twice as fast to make up for it.
They also mentioned an update to the map, but so far all it's done seems to be to remove the mid-point 2014, so it's only "now" or "winter 2014"; all granularity evaporated.�
Feb 2, 2014
callmesam Elon claimed one Supercharger opening every WEEK day. Which means roughly 250 Superchargers opening in 2014.
100 will be opened in Europe.
That leaves 150 for the rest of the world.
I'm guessing that the US gets 100 more.
50 will be shared with:
China
Japan
Australia�
Feb 2, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Currently 1 per weekday. Once they ramp up production they'll increase cashflow and could accelerate.�
Feb 2, 2014
mrdoubleb If you look at Tesla as a company only producing $70k-110k cars, then that sentence is 100% true. I'd be suprised if cars in that price range would not be kept in garages.
If you believe Tesla will eventually produce 25k-35k cars, you'll have to deal with the fact that not all of those customers live in the suburbs or own garages at all. Not everyone will be able to charge at home.�
Feb 2, 2014
Theshadows Cities are already making ev charging infrastructure mandates. NYC just made one a few weeks ago that all new parking structures must be ev charger ready. I'll see if I can find the link, not sure if I saw it here or it came through my solar news feeds.�
Feb 2, 2014
vgrinshpun Here is the link:
Electric Vehicle Charging Ordinance Passes in NYC�
Feb 2, 2014
physicsfita Without+1
Where I live right now, my only parking option is street parking. I doubt the city will let me have a designated street space just so I could install my EVSE. :crying: I really like where I live, but I figure in about 3 years when my Prius hits about 400k miles I will hopefully living in a place with a garage. Here's to hoping that "travel without compromises" someday includes not making compromises about where you live!�
Feb 2, 2014
Julian Cox Thanks Brian. AWD Model S - nuff said.�
Feb 2, 2014
hockeythug I have a feeling this "auto pilot" feature is gonna set me back a lot of $$$$$�
Feb 2, 2014
Frankrb I want to know when Tesla will be offering the new RED Tesla jacket JB was wearing in New Jersey to owners??�
Feb 2, 2014
bevguy It seems to me that many of the gaps in the future Supercharger networks will be filled in by 40 amp 14-50 type chargers at motels and hotels. These are fine for an overnight while-you-sleep charge. Eventually motels will figure out that they won't get electric car drivers as guests unless they have these. Putting them in becomes not a wave to green energy but competitive. I recently found 2 motels in a semi rural area within a half mile of each other with these chargers, even though there were no others within 40 miles.
The problems that Blink and others had of poorly designed and poorly maintained equipment, bankruptcy, etc will sort themselves out in time. The problems of being ICE'd will require locating charging stations further from main parking areas and maybe more active policy of towing offending ICE vehicles. So with the expansion of SC (I wish more were going to undeserved parts of the US) likely range anxiety will be minimal wwithin only a couple of years. By then your Model S will be an even better car thanks to software updates.�
Feb 2, 2014
Room_A113 I think you have to be listed on this page to get one of the red jackets: http://www.teslamotors.com/executives
At least that's the way it seemed to me. Of the 20+ Tesla employees on the Coast-to-Coast trip, only J.B. Straubel and Diarmuid O'Connell had on the red jackets. It must be one of the perks of being a Tesla exec! :smile:�
Feb 2, 2014
jerry33 I hope that's not similar to being a "red shirt" in Star Trek.�
Feb 2, 2014
Joel Do you plan on living in Ann Arbor long term, if so, send me a PM. I have a contact in AA that may be able to address your current situation.�
Feb 2, 2014
Jaff How many Model S's have been sold in Australia?...not a frigging chance of the Watney's Red Barrel crowd getting even one supercharger ahead of Canada...
�
Feb 2, 2014
Grendal From what I understand from someone that lives there, Australia has no EV incentives right now and they are charged huge tariffs. So a buyer will be paying over twice the US price for the privilege of owning one. Tesla shouldn't be going out of their way to create a Supercharger network until they can have a substantial number of buyers. Maybe create one in anticipation of future sales but it should still come low on the priority list over places where stations are still needed.�
Feb 2, 2014
Doug_G Canada being a rounding error?�
Feb 2, 2014
moollar Tesla have not sold any Model S' in Australia yet - we're waiting for the RHD version to come out. The UK will get theirs first though. I agree that Tesla should definitely get some superchargers happening in Canada!
The situation is not very good from a cost perspective in Australia. We have a "Luxury Car Tax" (LCT) that applies at a rate of 33% of the marginal amount of the purchase price above ~AUD$60k for regular vehicles and ~AUD$75k for "fuel efficient" vehicles (defined as less than 7L/100km fuel efficiency rating, which roughly translates to vehicles with an efficiency of approx. 34mpg and above, according to Google). Seeing as we have a free trade agreement with the US, there shouldn't be any import tariffs as such (as far as I'm aware), but we do have to pay 10% Goods and Services Tax (GST - the Australian equivalent of VAT). Then we have to pay our state stamp duty on the purchase price (except for the ACT - Canberra, which I believe has an exemption for EVs).
What this will probably translate to with the current exchange rate is at least AUD$100k for a base 60kWh Model S. With the LCT being applied to every marginal dollar of upgrades from there, a fully decked out P85+ Model S will probably end up being closer to AUD$200k than we would like. :frown: Should be interesting to see the pricing when it finally gets announced some time in the next couple of months.
Having said all this, these costs apply to all of the vehicles in the Model S price range, so they all have similarly high pricing. For example, a base 60kWh Model S will probably end up costing similar to a Mercedes E 250, which is listed at about AUD$105k on the Australian Mercedes website (for purchases in my state, NSW). What our Federal Government really needs to do is get rid of the LCT for ZEVs. That alone will help immensely and I'm sure that the Model S will sell VERY well if that happened.�
Feb 2, 2014
FANGO If the car had 600 mile range, it would cost another 60 grand or something. How's the cost benefit for that sound to you?
You guys, ranges will not continually grow and grow. It's just not going to happen,, and thinking that it will only delays everyone's buying decisions. The only reason vw talks about 700 mile tanks is because they hate EVs (which btw relates to the q8, which will never come out), they want to make people think 700 mile range is necessary, but it's simply not. Manufacturers and customers would much rather make lighter and cheaper cars than ones with insane amounts of superfluous range, and this will continue no matter how cheap batteries get. As long as we are in a battery EV + conductive charging paradigm, which is the paradigm we will be in for decades to come, this will remain true. If you are waiting for 700 mile mass market or even luxury EVs you will be waiting a very long time. Probably forever.
The point about longer ranges for all driving conditions makes some sense, but those 700 mile numbers VW talks about are also only for certain driving conditions. No matter which car you drive, the conditions you drive it in and how you drive it will affect your range, it's just more obvious with an EV since you have a simple round number telling you what your range is. Also, I have a really hard time believing the range numbers people get in their Model S, because in my experience I never had any trouble getting very close to the rated range, even when I wasn't paying attention to my driving style, and in my Roadster I generally get about 5-10% less than ideal range no matter what I'm up to - heater on, 80mph, etc. Though I don't drive in snow...but every vehicle, again, does worse in snow.�
Feb 3, 2014
callmesam on the 2014 map, canada should get about 10 Superchargers.
Not it a rounding error but canada already has the sun highway.�
Feb 3, 2014
Doug_G The dots keep shifting in time and position, so we'll see what actually happens. Based on the original map we should already have some. There have been rumours of the first Supercharger going in at Squamish, BC. Unfortunately that is 4,500 km from here. There are already 50 closer US Superchargers. :biggrin:�
Feb 3, 2014
TD1 Standing ovation after a Q&A by a CEO of a commercial company.
Remarkable.
Wanted to say that only Apple with Steve Jobs had such moments, but he never did Q&As.�
Feb 3, 2014
Theshadows I was talking with my wife yesterday how I really like how accessible Elon is.
I used to be a systems admin and attended many wwdc's and macworlds and after the keynotes Steve was no where to be found.�
Feb 3, 2014
techmaven Certainly that was the case later on, but it certainly wasn't the case earlier in Apple and NeXT's time. Matter of fact, as part of the 30th anniversary of the Mac, the Q&A session was recently shown where Mr. Jobs was taking questions directly from the audience (as was the Mac development team). I distinctly remember meeting him as a NeXTWORLD party in the mid 90's, where basically any conference attendee would have met him. In his last few years, there was a higher precedence given to media interviews than general Q&A sessions. I believe he did do general Q&A at shareholder meetings.�
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