Thứ Tư, 4 tháng 1, 2017

[Busted] Model X configuring in July 2015 part 2

  • Jul 16, 2015
    NigelM
    It's actually a copy of the press release, not a customer mailing per se. I think perhaps those mails go to folks who registered on the investor website?
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    Paul Carter
    Yup. I missed that, its from shareholder.com.
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    timf
    I received an email a couple weeks ago promoting the fact they hit 1 billion miles, but nothing about the event (presumably since there aren't any stops near me). I'm certain Model X won't even be acknowledged let alone shown as part of this tour.
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    tinm
    You're right -- in the footer of the Tesla email I got, it said it was sent because I subscribed to their investor relations list.
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    MikeC
  • Jul 16, 2015
    NigelM
  • Jul 16, 2015
    MikeC
    I'll take the bet that it's not that. While acknowledging they did do a press call for a software update, is there anything about the tour that would warrant one? They do these types of events frequently - there was no presser for the double black tour they just had.
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    Fanatic
    Tesla has a press conference tomorrow. The verge says!. Hope its the Design studio opening!
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    pmadflyer
    Hopefully:
    1) Model X
    2) Autopilot launch
    3) Roadster 3.0 unveil
    4) S facelift.
    5) something awesome that is promised in a given month that arrives several months later.

    In order of preference.

    Recall Autopilot testing, Roadster 3.0 certification, and the design studio were said to take place in July.
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    ecarfan
    I will be very disappointed if the press conference tomorrow is simply about the contents of today's email. I think it will be about something more significant.
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    ohmman
    I have the same misplaced confidence as you, my friend. My guesses:

    1. Model 3 preliminary intro/discussion.
    2. Some sort of managerial shake-up. (This is the kind of thing one announces late "market time" Friday.)
    3. Model X update, but not a reveal/release event. In other words, bad news. (Again, late Friday is always solid for this).

    Not sure I'm a huge fan of any of my options except #1. But I love being wrong.
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    Yuri_G
    Sounds like it's Model X related judging by the lack of info of the press conference beforehand. If Elon wanted to hype it he would have tweeted about the announcement this week. Everything X related has been hush hush since he announced no official reveal. Hoping this will get things moving!
    �
  • Jul 17, 2015
    NigelM
    I'm wiling to bet today's presser won't be a Model X reveal. Any takers?
    �
  • Jul 17, 2015
    bonnie
    Sorry, not taking that bet :). I don't drink this early in the morning.
    �
  • Jul 17, 2015
    DJ Frustration
    I wouldn't take the bet either. The "about time to unveil the D" tweet and subsequent press was multiplied immensely by the suspense and speculation from the tweet. No way this is how they announce the X reveal/config. Unless, today is to give people more than a week's notice that an event will take place. That may actually permit owners who aren't local to CA to attend.

    I still think it's software/autopilot ("the end of range anxiety v2.0").
    �
  • Jul 17, 2015
    NigelM
    Confirmed, not about the X....
    Untitled.jpg
    �
  • Jul 17, 2015
    mspisars
    How about you offer a bet for what it will be, not what it won't be... I have already seen your list of what it won't be... :)
    �
  • Jul 17, 2015
    pvogel
    With that profile photo, I predict it's an announcement that the Model S will be the next Bond car! :)

    Peter+
    �
  • Jul 17, 2015
    ecarfan
    That would be worth a press conference! The next Bond movie will feature a P100D with a sub 3 second 0-60 time that will also be a submarine. [emoji3]
    �
  • Jul 17, 2015
    Kevin Harney
    Well you got the sub 3 second part right !! 2.8
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    DJ Frustration
    Anyone still think this is going to happen in July? We're losing more daylight with each passing day.
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    MileHighMotoring
    Did he specify July of what YEAR ?
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    bonnie
    Yes. I believe some Founders will configure their cars this month. The problem, of course, is that won't be public since that will likely not be done online, but rather 1:1. When their cars are delivered, then the calendar can be worked backwards to estimate when they must have configured.
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    NigelM
    I'm thinking around or after Q2 ER, so August seems quite likely. Although I do think Tesla will target to get Founders cars delivered before end September it's quite possible that most of us won't see a design studio until that time.
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    Fiver
    Did anyone actually think this ever would happen in July? I'd wager late August.
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    tga
    This, +1, etc.

    I don't get why this causes so much confusion around here. Founders will configure in secret and their cars will be delivered at a public reveal at the end of this quarter, after which the design studio opens for at least Sigs, if not everyone. This meets "Q3 delivery" and "public reveal at delivery". Occam's razor. Done.
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    sigurdi
    Model X configuring in July 2015

    Is it Founders for model X too? (Insiders?)
    Just asking since I just do not understand the whole founders thing?
    And why did Elon mention configuration in Q1 share holder talk, if it is just for "insiders" that he just could take a phonecall to, when the time was right?
    Or better invite them for a get togethet to configurate their cars?
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    bonnie
    Pretty sure, yes. I would find it unbelievable that I would get a Model X before Elon, board members who ordered, or major investors. Founders are generally reserved for that group.

    Because a Founder configuring is indicative that production is about to commence. Doesn't matter if the first vehicles go to an insider or a Signature (at least to me) - configuration means that production is ready to go. Perhaps it won't be a 1:1, maybe they'll all get together at one time. :)
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    S'toon
    There's still a bit of time until the end of July. I use an OS which always announces their upgrades being available "by the end of the month." It always happens on the very last day of the month in question.
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    mzpolo
    I have it on a very reliable source who wont tell me he is an engineer on the floor at the Tesla plant ...
    :tongue:
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    gjunky
    Once the configurator goes live and we can actually order our model X, when will funds be due. I thought recalling something in a Model S thread that $20k or so was due at finalizing the order and the remainder when you get the car. Does anyone who ordered a early Model S have an idea?

    Still hoping for the configurator to go live for everyone this month (I don't care if it is wishful thinking)
    �
  • Jul 21, 2015
    AnOutsider
    We didn't pay the rest until we hav an MVPA
    �
  • Jul 22, 2015
    gjunky
    Ok, after reading an MVPA thread, it looks like the deposit becomes permanent when I sign the purchase agreement and the rest is due at delivery. Is this correct?
    �
  • Jul 22, 2015
    AnOutsider
    Dunno how it worked for everyone else, but I paid before my car was delivered. These were still fairly early times though. My car was actually delivered to my home on a transport trailer.
    �
  • Jul 22, 2015
    timf
    For Model S, the deposit becomes nonrefundable when your order is finalized, which automatically takes place one week after it is submitted (or earlier by request). There are situations where you may be able to get it back such as if financing falls through, but that is at Tesla's discretion. Whether this is handled the same for Model X remains to be seen.
    �
  • Jul 30, 2015
    ronmerkord
    I have to admit, I do find the new referral program a little bit worrying for the timeline of the X. It seems that Tesla Motors has changed from saying that they are supply limited in the production of their cars, to now using promotions like this to rapidly increase Model S sales. Also, it is now the end of July, and there is still no design center.


    From a shareholder standpoint, it is very important for them to meet their expected 55,000 deliveries by the end of the year, which they have said that they would do with the new production line coming online in order to fill Model X orders. The timing of this promotion, ending October 31st, makes me think that they might not be using Model X orders to keep this extra production line busy.


    I hope I am wrong, as I am eagerly awaiting my Model X, and I'd love to get it by Thanksgiving.


    Ron
    SigX #1015
    �
  • Jul 30, 2015
    Paul Carter
    I would say you should be on the opposite of worry. This is really good news. It means its coming and this can help keep the Model S orders pumping in! Something's going give really soon! I think the time frame for the trial is a good length for the test, I wouldn't read too much into the end date.
    �
  • Jul 30, 2015
    MartinAustin
    Do not worry. They just happen to know their customer base quite a bit, and know that they are a fickle bunch for whom a large fraction "must have" the latest thing.

    They know this from the order rates of new products getting introduced.

    Consider if Tesla had 17 models on sale, and were adding one new one: the effect on production would be minimal. But they only have one product right now, and they're about to double that by slowly introducing another. Very different. And the new car is in a more popular segment - SUVs.

    Model X is a car which will start production at a slow rate... if a lot of people swing over to it, the yearly goal of "approx 55,000" could be affected - by basically satisfying substantially all known Model S orders, and then lowering their output while they produce rafts of Model X cars that the "must have the latest" crowd have ordered.

    This keeps the ordering of Model S cars healthy- by bringing new customers in that are attracted by the (admittedly small) discount but not by the extra cost of the Model X (which I am guessing starts at $80,000). Thus, they are simply maximising their chances of producing 55,000 this year.
    �
  • Jul 31, 2015
    jeffro01
    Well... Gotta be captain obvious right now, no Model X Design Studio in July it would seem... :)

    Jeff
    �
  • Jul 31, 2015
    pvogel

    Work day isn't over, and deployments typically happen at night anyway. Though it would be very unusual to do a deployment on a Friday so I suspect you are right :-( I so desperately WANT my Model X!

    Peter+
    �
  • Jul 31, 2015
    goneskiian
    I hate to be captain obvious, but he never said anything about the design studio going live. He said customers would likely be configuring. One does not necessitate the other. ;-)
    �
  • Jul 31, 2015
    schonelucht
    He also said it is going to be essentially exactly like it is now with the Model S, so I think you are grasping at straws here. Just like those who are assuming founders and early sigs are already configuring under NDA. The reality is that they didn't make the probable target. See you all at the earnings conference call to hear why they missed it.
    �
  • Jul 31, 2015
    Fiver

    Are you sure? I mean some people here on the forums were preeeeeetttty adamant that it would open up in July. They made some of us who said "no way July" feel down right low.
    �
  • Aug 1, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    Well, it's August 1, and the Model X web page hasn't changed (I just checked a minute ago).

    If the design studio goes live before the conference call I doubt people will care very much for missing the estimate by a few days, but if there's no update I expect tough questions on Wednesday.
    �
  • Aug 1, 2015
    NigelM
    The design studio might well be online but with access limited to Founders (who pay for their cars btw, so they are also 'consumers'); promise met. Elon may well go on to say that first cars are beng built right now and the configurator will be fully public when the cars are revealed next month. I doubt there'd be any tough questions after that.
    �
  • Aug 1, 2015
    CmdrThor
    Surely this has already been covered in the thread but here is what specifically was said on May 7:

    So the question was when the public would be configuring, but Elon said two conflicting things: "probably three months from now", so three months from May 7 would be August 7, then he said "early July". Obviously this was an estimate, so everyone expecting it to be July 31 were reading too much into his words. Surely some Founders may have configured, but the question in the earnings call was specifically about the "public".
    �
  • Aug 1, 2015
    KJD
    Another self imposed deadline.
    Another missed date.
    Is anyone surprised by this ?
    �
  • Aug 1, 2015
    pmadflyer
    I checked my Elon-Time calendar and it looks like we're only into july. I think it will come out on 49 July 2015. It also appears that first deliveries will be 51 Soonvember. AP will arrive sooner in Almosgust. Nothing planned for August.
    �
  • Aug 1, 2015
    ohmman
    It's simple relativity. Elon moves close to the speed of light, so time relative to him is much, much shorter than that on our scale.
    �
  • Aug 1, 2015
    NigelM
    It was, and I think you're right about reading too much into it; I've said before I think it's August at the earliest and might even stay hidden until the Founders reveal in September.
    �
  • Aug 1, 2015
    Cattledog
    That was a good laugh...
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  • Aug 1, 2015
    astrothad
    Let's assume the time dilation factor for Elon is 3/2. That would make May to July (2 months in his reference frame) equal to May to August (3 months in our frame). Computing his speed from this Lorentz factor tells us Elon is moving at 89.5% the speed of light.

    It appears his speed does vary, though, if we employ this analysis to other deadline/delivery date combinations. Further investigation is warranted to see if we need General Relativity rather than Special Relativity for making accurate future predictions.

    However those who comment or tweet "May Elon live 200 years!" could get their wish.
    �
  • Aug 2, 2015
    Study Joe
    This is awesome!

    �
  • Aug 2, 2015
    T1perry
    July has past - no Tesla comment

    I do no usually post on social media, but I am surprised that there has been no official comment about the July timeline for configuring.:confused:

    Also surprised that there was no X info at the TMC event.:confused:

    Sig X 931 Excited and waiting for years
    �
  • Aug 2, 2015
    ecarfan
    TMC Connect is not run by Tesla Motors and Tesla does not use the event to make new announcements.
    �
  • Aug 3, 2015
    jeffro01
    I guess what I don't quite understand is why not go ahead and release the design studio? It's like there is this hard link between deliveries and design studio availability but I can't understand why? I mean, I'd think by now (at least I hope) Tesla knows what the options are going to be, and for how much. They know the colors and all of that stuff as well. What else do they need for a design studio launch?

    Jeff
    �
  • Aug 3, 2015
    ohmman
    I generally subscribe to the "why cannibalize MS sales early since we already have a big queue of MX reservations" hypothesis. I can see the case where someone configuring a MS might notice the MX configurator online and think, oh this is awesome. That's a "lost" MS sale in the short term at the cost of a longer term MX sale.
    �
  • Aug 3, 2015
    jeffro01
    Fair enough. I get that angle as well. That being said, I'm back on the fence again in regards to purchasing a Model S and won't look at it seriously again until the X design studio comes out. Not because I'm interested in the X over the S from a car "type" perspective, it's that there is plenty of evidence to support the idea that the X will have some technology improvements ("possibly" 360 degree view cameras for instance) that will undoubtably come down to the S. Seeing as how I can't take delivery until December anyhow, I can sit on this fence for a month or two more. If Tesla wants to sell me an S then they are going to have to show me an X first. Given all of the negative stuff I read on TMC regarding poor customer service, repeated issues with the drive unit, repeated issues with charge ports, etc... You could say that I'm beginning to lean towards going with a different make all together and this "delay" on the X design studio (if you want to even call it that) just doesn't give me the warm fuzzy feeling I'm looking for. Hence my question(s).

    Jeff
    �
  • Aug 3, 2015
    timf
    I'm in the same boat Jeff. I've bought the "don't want to cannibalize Model S sales" argument long enough, but it's getting near the point for me where a go/no go decision on a Model S needs to be made and the answer is "no go" until the production Model X is known. Part of me wants the Model X to be nothing more than a bigger, uglier, and more expensive Model S and otherwise have exactly the same feature set. That would make going with the Model S much more appealing. At the same time, after waiting this long I hate to give up just short of the goal and then regret not waiting a couple months longer. It's going to impact sales either way, so just show us the X already!
    �
  • Aug 3, 2015
    Strib
    Does anyone know whether EV tax credits will still be available in 2016?
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  • Aug 3, 2015
    jeffro01
    Short answer is yes, the credits phase out based on production which Tesla is no where near the cutoff targets.

    Jeff
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  • Aug 4, 2015
    Gwgan
    <stir>Maye is on her way to the Bay Area, maybe to pick up her Founder�s MX? Maybe there will be a party after all.</stir>
    Instagram
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  • Aug 5, 2015
    travwill
    Tax Credits phase out at 500K vehicle sales/production numbers in the USA. Tesla only has about 100K Model S so far, and that is globally.

    -T
    �
  • Aug 5, 2015
    LargeHamCollider
    I'm quite sure it's 200k not 500k
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  • Aug 5, 2015
    jeffro01
    That would be correct it's 200K per manufacturer.

    Jeff
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  • Aug 5, 2015
    travwill
    Ah, you CA guys would know better ;-) Thanks! So we are about half way there! Will have to keep that in mind for the next Tesla purchase...
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  • Aug 5, 2015
    goneskiian
    Nope. More like a quarter of the way there as that 200k is for US sales not total production. They might even slip a few Model 3's in under that cap. Should be close though! ;-)
    �
  • Aug 5, 2015
    brianman
    The phrase "ask people to do the configuration" is not the same as "offer a (public or private) configurator online tool". The configuration could be a phone call with a Tesla employee followed by an email capture of the conclusion with a DocuSign link.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I'm sure it's already covered but if it hasn't....

    This would make an interesting Sci-fi topic: cryo-freezing inventors and using time dilation so that their impact on humanity over time is more significant. As an example, people like Babbage could probably do some crazy and amazing stuff with the technology base we have today.

    - - - Updated - - -

    And you've given one answer for your question right there. Anything they release about X has a material impact on S decisions, the stock price (which affects cash raises and such), etc.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Good point.
    �
  • Aug 5, 2015
    jeffro01
    Fair enough, but I would be curious how many others are sitting on the fence because the X is taking to long to reveal\produce\deliver? No one will ever know the answer to that naturally but...

    Jeff
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  • Aug 5, 2015
    goneskiian
    I am too. Fence sitting that is. ;-)
    �
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