Aug 11, 2016
ilovtesl I read this article (Tesla Autopilot 2.0: next gen Autopilot powered by more radar, new triple camera, some equipment already in production) and I was happy that autopilot 2.0 is coming out very soon, but I am worried that as a Model X owner I am not going to be able to upgrade. I hope for the best because I have had the car for less than 6 months.�
Aug 11, 2016
RIZE Yaiks. My fathers X just finished production.�
Aug 11, 2016
outie I guess we will find out real soon if that's the case in a week or two!�
Aug 11, 2016
trils0n It is rumored to be coming out soon. Who knows if that is actually true. Don't worry about it.�
Aug 11, 2016
ohmman I won't be holding my breath on a retrofit. It'll be on my next Tesla.. or 3.0 by then..�
Aug 11, 2016
DoubleE The Reddit post seems to indicate retrofit will be available for additional $$$.
At this point, unless word comes directly from Tesla- everything is speculation.�
Aug 11, 2016
JimmyAZ I'm sure a retrofit will be possible. Whether it will be financially reasonable is another story. I still get so surprised by people that feel the vehicle they paid for will no longer satisfy their needs after a new version comes out. It's still a terrific car that manages 60-80% of my driving needs without my need for intervention. 2.0 will be great, but not necessary. I would think for my 2015 it would be a cost that I could never get back out of the car. The VIN would never state that was original equipment too. I wonder if that would make it even more difficult to recoup?
My S is the first car I've ever leased, and it was for the sole reason that it was a snapshot in tech at the time. The Model 3 will be purchased for the tax incentives and will be equipped with the 2.0 hardware. But it won't be Level 4 autonomous, and I'm totally fine with that. I would never upgrade the hardware. I'd just sell the car and buy another I guess.�
Aug 11, 2016
Chopr147 Retrofit? The SC's sure seem to be too busy as it is. I imagine a retrofit appt. will take a year to get one.
I changed my S to a lease just yesterday, a few days before delivery for a number of reasons but this news has me feeling better about it. 3 years no regrets and see what they have done 3 years from now�
Aug 11, 2016
JimmyAZ I agree with you, Chopr147. If I upgrade my cell phone almost every year, why wouldn't I want to upgrade all the tech in my car? When I worked for Toshiba's laptop mfg plant in CA, the lifecycle was 12 months meaning the top of the line laptop in January was the worst model in December. I see no reason why the cameras, processors, and other tech would be any different in this car, not to mention laser headlights, LED tech, interfaces, curved displays, etc.�
Aug 11, 2016
DougH So basically do not buy an inventory car order a new one if you want 2.0. Done.�
Aug 11, 2016
JimmyAZ Lol. Depending on what you're looking for, definitely. The next gen seats would be about as far back as I'd go in the facelift cycle. Those are amazing. I don't care much for the older loaner car seats. Total personal preference though.�
Aug 11, 2016
Jay.Y Hope my MX would have this feature coming this Sep.�
Aug 12, 2016
RajendraD Tesla Autopilot 2.0: next gen Autopilot powered by more radar, new triple camera, some equipment already in production
After reading this, I am thinking maybe I should hold my model X production(if possible) or postone it. Hope Tesla makes a statement on this soon.�
Aug 12, 2016
Odebek I think it will be $2,500 or less... otherwise they will have a lot of owners canceling their orders and pushing off a month or two...�
Aug 12, 2016
proven I seriously doubt there will be a retrofit. There was no retrofit when they added autopilot 1.0 and this version has even more hardware. Don't get your hopes up unless they've been installing the wiring harnesses all along. Even then you'll probably have to have several body panels replaced if they are adding radars in other places.�
Aug 12, 2016
vandacca The smart thing to do is to quietly start including the new hardware in vehicles for a few months before making any sort of announcement. That's how they've handled it in the past. That should prevent order cancellations.�
Aug 12, 2016
ohmman Agreed. If they offer a retrofit, it'll be unlike Tesla to make it just as cheap as the original option.
My money is on a price bump, like they did with the S facelift. That increase makes the owners who got the car before the hardware change feel at least a little better about their situation. Also, surely there's more cost involved with the extra hardware.�
Aug 12, 2016
Lump When parking sensors were introduced in the summer of 2013 Tesla wanted ~$6000 to retrofit our "classics", they claimed they couldn't just drill holes into our bumpers to install the sensors but new ones needed to be ordered blah blah blah, be prepared to write a large check if a retrofit is offered.�
Aug 12, 2016
systemcrashed Being that the AP 2.0 will be run by a more powerful dedicated chipset, it is highly unlikely that there will be a retrofit available at a reasonable price. If there was a plan all along to include this new hardware into existing cars there might be a plug and play solution that can be added to the existing system, I'm skeptical.�
Aug 12, 2016
Electricfan
LOL! Or did you mean $25,000?
I got a Model S in August of 2013 right before the folding side mirrors.
The retrofit for new folding side mirrors was $2700.00 (I declined)
AP 2.0 retrofits will not be available, in my opinion, unless Tesla by some miracle allowed for this with the existing design. Meaning they can just swap the existing camera for a new triple cam without new wiring, and add new radar with little new wiring.
If they are, they won't be less than $15k
However, if the Brown family succeeds in their lawsuit (if they file one), that could give Tesla some incentive to be more reasonable.�
Aug 12, 2016
vandacca I really want AP2.0 and I hope it's retrofittable. However, I suspect that it's not as simple as adding more sensors, and that they would need to upgrade the whole CPU (probably with latest NVidia chips) as well, since what's currently being delivered seems woefully underpowered. I read that the speculation is pointing to a dedicated CPU for AP2.0 (currently AP1.0 and infotainment share a CPU).
That would seem to indicate that either the upgrade will be extremely costly or Tesla will opt to not provide this upgrade.
Maybe once they deliver compelling 2nd row folding seats and a larger, 20700 battery pack, that will complete my trifecta of desired upgrades and it may be time for me to get a new, upgraded vehicle.�
Aug 12, 2016
3Victoria This Reddit post:
"Little birdie told me: new hardware installed in 45 days Xs and refreshed Model S capable of retrofit for $$ activation of new ver of AP still more than 180 days out"
(which some think might have come from EM)
suggests:
1) "new hardware installed in 45 days" - so mid Sept;
2) "Xs and refreshed Model S capable of retrofit for $$" -- suggests these models have the wiring harnesses and mounting spots for new hw. $$ might mean moderate cost.
3) "activation of new ver of AP still more than 180 days out" -- 6 months to the new sw.
I would suspect that there will be a new AP (1.5?) that can at least sample data from the new hw, and give data back to TM for there newer AP development.
Also, even the older hw will be enhanced by new AP software that uses the existing radar units to form 3d point clouds and enhance AP performance.�
Aug 12, 2016
ohmman This reddit post:
Not saying the birdie is wrong, just saying.. let's be careful getting too excited about that "evidence". Currently the more believable evidence is the historical record, and in that realm Tesla hasn't been terribly accommodating of old vehicles.�
Aug 12, 2016
3Victoria @ohmman -- Sorry, I was not suggesting that that Reddit post is anything more than rumour. However, it does seem to fit quite well with the other pieces of rumour and evidence running around.
We do know EM promised another Tesla event 'later this year' to do with AP and/or M3 (I think more likely AP) and we do know that the wiring diagram was included in a TM manual. The 100 battery appears to be in the offing. Combined event? I do think the M2 2nd reveal will be in the new year, to give them time to build the new prototypes.
So, I am not 'too excited', more 'hope for the best, plan for the worst'.�
Aug 12, 2016
NathanWolf It's my last day to decide if I want to postpone delivery, production is scheduled for mid-September. The rumors and timing are killing me!�
Aug 12, 2016
3Victoria @NathanWolf -- Well, from my standpoint that's a nice problem to have�
Aug 12, 2016
NathanWolf Fair enough, definitely a nice problem to have!
I've been waiting and saving for years now if that makes you feel any better.�
Aug 12, 2016
3Victoria Well an anticipatory congratulations on your new car ... whenever you get it. I am jealous. :-o�
Aug 12, 2016
Matias Even if Tesla wanted to make AP 2 retrofittable, in practise service centres don't have the capacity.�
Aug 12, 2016
mspohr The current speculation is for an upgraded camera module (2 or 3 cameras) and radar module. I believe that the current camera module has a processor built into it. Most likely the new module will also have a dedicated processor. If that is the case, upgrading the hardware could be simply done by plugging in the new modules. The existing wiring (power and communication) would be used.
The difficulty and expense of going from AP 0 to AP 1 was due to the need for new wiring (and bumpers).
The modules themselves are likely to be expensive but the installation should not be difficult.�
Aug 12, 2016
2virgule5 There is still a remote chance they can upgrade. After all getting LTE was offered and involved accessing the MCU. Same for Ludicrous. AP v1 was impossible because of all the new parts and mechanical changes needed (electro-brake and steer). Now of course way more people may be in for an AP upgrade - dozen of thousands - so SC would struggle unless new refresh S and X were designed to make this 'easy' and integrated into a day for example during yearly service visit. Dreaming is cheap.�
Aug 12, 2016
DSBS4 After the announcement that Mobile Eye and Tesla were parting ways, I thought the next gen of AP hardware was going to be at least 2017 since new chip designers weren't hired until 2/2016 and it would take them a while to design new chips in house.
This new Eletrek article tells me that Tesla has been planning to part ways well before the hiring of Keller. Therefore, they've had this current AP2 design in their plans before the refresh. The schematics from the refresh also include the extra wire harness, which also bodes well for a retrofit.
We don't know what's already in the cars. Perhaps there are already extra sensors in the rear bumper.�
Aug 12, 2016
AMPUP It won't be retrofittable, when they first had front and rear sensors it wasn't and it took a few creative owners to buy the parts themselves and fit themselves and then ask a SC nicely to add the feature. They haven't retrofitted anything in mass like this successfully and it's difficult enough getting a service appt.
It won't happen... Tech moves fast and becomes obsolete fast, there have been hundreds of changes and upgrades since the S first came out. How many retrofits?�
Aug 12, 2016
psgabin i ordered x for a mid november delivery how likely new hardware?�
Aug 12, 2016
davidc18 The MS would need a new front windshield as the camera housing is bonded to the glass. My vote is there will not be an upgrade from V1 to V2�
Aug 12, 2016
electricity and also dont forget Tesla wants your autopilot information data. So its in their interest to retrofit the cars with all the hardware available and get even more info up on their servers�
Aug 12, 2016
outie No one knows. No one has confirmed anything. No one has seen new hardware on their cars. Everything is rumor and speculation at this point. If the rumors are true then yes you are likely to have it.�
Aug 12, 2016
Dr Doom I think the autopilot 2.0 won't be retrofitted to older model x and s. I just hope the hardware gets released soon before the year ends.�
Aug 13, 2016
Xminus6 Given the high-profile nature of the coverage of every Autopilot crash so far, I think they'd probably not offer a retrofit just for liability reasons. What if the retrofit isn't done to factory standard by the service center? Are they going to want to take that risk?�
Aug 13, 2016
Chopr147 We need someone like Btr_ftw to tear a refreshed Tesla apart and let us know whats behind those panels�
Aug 13, 2016
Odebek 42% ;-)�
Aug 13, 2016
McMuggets How do we know that there isn't already new hardware going in the cars right now anyways? There are rumours the current production 90kwh's are actually 100kwh's. For Autopilot, these sensors are probably active in the background collecting valuable data even if the owner does not pay for autopilot nor upgrades to the 2.0 version. It would make sense for Tesla to put these new sensors in ASAP to the current production, and tune the software later. The potential extra revenue of owners paying for a 2.0 upgrade later on, as well as the data collection would be worth it to Tesla.
Doubt the retrofit would be an option though. These cameras and sensors have to be perfectly mounted and calibrated (huge safety issue), and the trust can't go out to the service centres to do this. Not to knock the service guys/gals or anything, but liability-wise Tesla would probably only want factory-mounted autopilot sensors.�
Aug 13, 2016
Odebek I am pretty sure that the system is self calibrating,(e.g. the camera can see the car nose and calibrates known measurements against the image it is receiving.) Also note all the threads about the service center fixing simple things like chrome trim alignment that the factory robots screw up all the time.�
Aug 13, 2016
vandacca Is it the robot's fault for the misaligned trim or is it a human's fault for not calibrating the robot accurately enough?�
Aug 13, 2016
AZ Desert Driver What? the camera is bonded to the windshield? I have replaced windshields due to stone chips, and the Insurance company tried to get me to take an aftermarket glass. I am imagining the conversation about having a camera involved in this routing maintenance. Tell me it is a simple glue job, like a mirror bond.�
Aug 13, 2016
Epymian I would be very sad if my 2 month old Tesla X was not upgradeable to AP 2.0 when it comes out in the next year. If you can replace a broken MX windshield then you can replace the rear view sensors. I think the high res GPS would require new hardware and upgrading the CPU in the car to the new NVIDIA tech. This should not be difficult. High res GPS might need a better processor and antenna but I would not expect it to need new sensors. Once the car is kept in the lane by GPS, then the sensors function more for obstacle avoidance including pedestrians and people making stupid lane changes around you. They would also improve the MX's ability to change lanes without hitting a car in the blind spot.
I would wish for Tesla to also licence the LCD rearview mirror tech from whomever has the rights currently.
The 100KW battery is not as much of a necessity although I would pay if it was a software switch because my car already has it installed. Having said that, I think if Tesla already put 100KW batteries in the MX, they should have sold them on that basis and therefore I would expect that our batteries are 90's. If I had to swap batteries, I would rather wait for something 120KW or higher.�
Aug 13, 2016
davidc18 View attachment 189960 View attachment 189960 The housing that the camera bolts to is bonded to the glass. We just had ours replaced. Check out the photo. Also, check out WKs thread about adding AP to his wife's car, where he states that he had to replace the windshield to get the housing for the camera.
�
Aug 13, 2016
Spidy Tesla usually never makes a statement for these things, because they know that people would do exactly what you consider and hold their order.
There have been disappointed owners with the first Autopilot. There have been unhappy owners with the facelift. And it's most likely going to be the same with AP 2.0.
So if new Autopilot hardware is very important to someone then their best bet is to wait a few weeks or months if that is an option.�
Aug 13, 2016
Ulmo I thought Elon tweeted AP 2.0 would NOT be retrofittable. (Even if he did tweet that, it would be totally awesome if it were retrofittable anyway, but that's doubtful. Perhaps the AP computers will be augmentable in the future, and "upgrades" (computer and sensors) could be had, like in 10 years or so, that aren't exactly AP factory production release #X.Y.Z, but are still workable upgrades the AI can grok.)�
Aug 14, 2016
Chopr147 I have no regrets for ordering and delivery is next week. I am glad I changed it to a lease though�
Aug 14, 2016
ecarfan It will not be upgradable. The hardware changes will be much more extensive than you describe (the wiring harness throughout the car will have significant differences, for example, and bumpers may well be different because of additional radars behind them, etc. etc. etc.).
When you bought your X 2 months ago you received the features and capabilities that you paid for, and you received future software upgrades as part of that price. You did not get the right to hardware changes in the future. I think Tesla is pretty clear about that.
No reason to set yourself up for future disappointment. Enjoy your car!�
Aug 14, 2016
ShadowR55 I would too, I would curl up and cry in a corner, only a few hours, but I would do it. If I were you, I would walk around the house and pick the corner ahead of time, maybe set up some pillows and blanket.�
Aug 14, 2016
mkjayakumar or, a few years.. you never know. AP 2.0 is a much harder challenge to get it right than AP 1.0 and would take a two years or more - IMHO�
Aug 14, 2016
vandacca I agree. Potentially new AP 2.0 hardware this year, but I would guess that SW won't be fully ready till after Model-3 is released.�
Aug 14, 2016
Waverider For those on the fence for postponing their orders, do you really want to be one of the early adopters for this tech? How confident that they found all the bugs on a level 3 or 4 system? Yeah Telsa will fix and upgrade things but you might be better off letting some other poor souls find the bugs.�
Aug 14, 2016
2virgule5 Hardware may arrive soon, but the software will be launched when it is ready, there is no reason to be afraid particularly if you are already used to Autopilot v1 which requires driver's attention all the time. The system is likely to be at least as good as V1 (probably even safer to boot) and will receive improvements step by step. Tesla will have million of miles of cars gathering data before they unlock level 3. That's the main difference with their competitor and that is why AP was so much better than anything else at that time (and up to now).�
Aug 14, 2016
grommet I honestly don't get why some people expect Autopilot 2.0 to be the end point to full autonomy. Do we really think we'll have fully optimal (and redundant) sensors, and fully redundant computer systems ready by next year? Hardware technology will improve and there will be iterations. Not everything can or will be software only.�
Aug 14, 2016
Martin VanB I believe autopilot 2.0 will have some components that recently manufactured cars could have acces too initially.
Camera Hardware and chip advances may be integrated in a bolt on after purchase front facing camera processor, but the cooling needs for a processor make that unlikely.�
Aug 14, 2016
Theshadows I wouldn't count on it. None of the major hardware advances have ever been retrofitable in the past. Non park sensor cars could not get park sensors, TACC, heated steering wheel, Auto diming headlights, AP, electric brakes.
The only hardware upgrade I recall being available was the auto folding mirrors.�
Aug 15, 2016
2virgule5 LTE upgrade was and still is offered as well as Ludicrous upgrade for P85D/P90D owners. Technically they can upgrade your battery (= change it for a ludicrous cost).
Overall I agree that we should not hold our breath over hardware upgrade possibilities, but then again predicting the future based on what happened in the past is kind of the anti-thesis of Tesla. They may have designed upcoming cars with better upgradability in mind to further distance themselves from competition and generate extra income. Dreams are cheap.�
Aug 15, 2016
psgabin So here is the real question. is there a list or a way to find out what is IN the car that is delivered? does any one track what is on a car produced today and tomorrow, etc. and if so if autopilot required hardware is installed on such or such a date does that mean that each model x after that has advanced hardware? even though software may not have been released. BTW my order finalizes this thursday but have asked for delivery mid november. so does that mean production should be october?�
Aug 15, 2016
2virgule5 If someone is spotting a customer S or X with new hardware that would mean that all subsequent production have it, it would make no sense to make constant changes on the manufacturing line.
The only way to find out would be for all owners to check themselves at delivery - one of the most obvious change should be the presence of more than one camera on the windshield. If you are motivated and live close to a Tesla delivery center (or if you are highly motivated and live far from one ;-) you can also save precious days by inspecting all new cars in the parking lot before they are delivered - just look at their VIN numbers to get a sense at when they've been manufactured. I did the same on one of the first few refresh S that came on Paramus NJ parking lot when rumor was AP 2.0 would be on them...
and yes @psgabin if you asked for delivery in Nov yours wont' be built before early October. You will know by then if is has new stuff on it or not.�
Aug 15, 2016
ohmman Unless they do like they did with my X when I asked for a delayed delivery, and just hold the already-built car for a few days. "You've been delayed!"�
Aug 15, 2016
2virgule5 @ohmman Maybe yours was like a guinea pig of sorts, or they were too happy to have more time to fix all of those early Xs ;-)
Now it may work for few days or weeks but it would not make financial sense to pay for all the material and labor to build a car that would be delivered 2 months later, let alone the cost of storage. Gives me the idea to go and check on the various trackers out there (slow day at work).�
Aug 15, 2016
psgabin so as a newbee what and where are trackers found?�
Aug 15, 2016
ecarfan Obviously Tesla tracks that and knows exactly what is in each car down to the smallest part. Tesla is not going to share that much details with anyone outside Tesla, including customers. So no one outside of Tesla can accurately track that sort of information. All outsiders can do is read TMC and see when new features show up on delivered cars.
Probably.�
Aug 15, 2016
K-MTG What about a free retrofit? With all of the autopilot dilemmas in the news, maybe just maybe Elon will be generous to the early-adopters??�
Aug 15, 2016
ohmman Considering I find a for-pay upgrade highly unlikely, I suppose I'll just say.. no way.�
Aug 15, 2016
AlMc Agreed. Highly unlikely you would even be offered a retrofit at a very steep premium let alone a *FREE* upgrade.�
Aug 15, 2016
ecarfan Fuhgeddaboudit�
Aug 15, 2016
bonnie You think he's going to give Roadster owners autopilot?
.... prob not�
Aug 16, 2016
spentan I dream of a scenario where my Signature X P90D is actually sporting a 100kWh battery, and it will be software unlocked as well as AP 2.0 hardware retrofit for free because we are Signature Owners (I currently own 5 Teslas and historically have owned 8)�
Aug 16, 2016
GoTslaGo How 'bout a horse? (Credit to @bmah)
xkcd: Horses�
Aug 16, 2016
K-MTG I suppose unless you buy signature they are no pros for being an early adopter. (Unless you were lucky enough to get the active spoiler, that I missed by a week!!!!!)�
Aug 16, 2016
AlMc I have a feeling there are several SigX owners that don't look at their early production vehicles as a *pro* based on several posts I have read/owners I have talked with about their vehicles.�
Aug 16, 2016
ohmman More time driving a Tesla is always a pro.�
Aug 16, 2016
vandacca I've always felt that Signature reservations were not worth it, especially if one reserved on the first day they started taking reservations (I did for both the S and X). Partly because options were limited (some were forced on you whether you wanted them or not) and partly due to initial quality. Not to mention, being forced to take a lower-range (higher performance) model when range is more important than performance to some.
I transferred my S reservation to the X and I did end up switching to a Signature for the X, which may have ended up saving me some money. I think it's better to be a Signature holder outside the US because a lot of problems are sorted out by the time they start exporting, but I don't think I would get a Signature if I lived in the US. I think it's a moot point since moving forward, there may no longer be a Signature option.�
Aug 16, 2016
K-MTG But my X likes going to the SC monthly�
Aug 16, 2016
number12 I am on my last day of ordering 60d X
I am concerned with autopilot 2.0 rumors and quickly depreciating the car that tesla makes it almost impossible to lease vs purchase (info for another thread) so does it make sense to cancel my order and redo it buying me another 7 days. It still says late sept delivery on order page. I really want it by first week of Oct (getting married). Is this a reasonable thing to do? If there wasn't really a date I needed it by what would stop someone from keep redoing there order if they cared that much about hardware rumors?�
Aug 16, 2016
Stasla I had similar qualms before I got my 75D. With Tesla there's always an minor or even a major update down the pike and it's impossible to time your order "just right" I had 90D confirmed 2 days before they announced 70D will be 75D instead with only a 20 mile range difference. Paid the $500 change fee to bump down to 75D and not regretting it. Personally, I think the software locked 60D option is an amazing value and I would have gotten that instead, if it was available. I now think of my 75 as an unlocked 60
Bottom line, the car is next level stuff. You will enjoy it, don't worry about what's coming later. Waiting for AP2, AP3, new/updated this and that only means you are not driving the dream that much longer.
Plus you can always trade in/upgrade in a couple of years when AP4.5 is out if it matters that much to you
Pull the trigger and enjoy! And if you haven't used a referral on your order to get $1000 off - I here's my code, your DS should be able to add it even after the Order confirms: Referral | Tesla
�
Aug 16, 2016
number12 Either way I will be sure to use your code.. Was waiting to add that till I decide for sure and not block someones tally�
Aug 16, 2016
Epymian One of my assumptions as a first time owner with the marketing around autopilot and software upgradeability/hardware upgradeability was that as new capabilities came one stream, I would be able to level up. Clearly it will be possible to replace windshield sensors and body panels/CPU's if needed or wanted. You do this in a car crash situation all the time. The question will be the cost. If the capability of my Tesla for autonomous driving can go from level 2 to 3 or 4, then I would pay 10 K for that (or more). I hope Tesla makes this possible.�
Aug 16, 2016
ohmman If you will pay more than $10k, you will be able to get it. How much more? Well, depends on how much they value your trade-in at the time..�
Aug 16, 2016
Roentgen Are you a New York transplant?�
Aug 16, 2016
DoubleE Why do you need 5 Teslas?�
Aug 16, 2016
vandacca Because he obviously only works 5 days a week.�
Aug 16, 2016
ecarfan Yes in a vehicle repair situation parts can be replaced. That does not mean that any part that might be replaced during a repair Tesla will also offer to replace that part in an undamaged vehicle. Tesla does not do that. For example, you cannot go to Tesla with a Model S built in early 2014 and say "add the forward radar and camera and replace the wiring harness in my car so I can have AP in my non AP car). Tesla will say "Sorry we do not offer that service".
I am unclear as to why you assumed that as new AP hardware was incorporated into new cars Tesla would have a program to modify older cars so they would have the new AP hardware.
I am not. Native Californian. I used that NY slang to emphasize the extremely low probability (I estimate zero probability) that Tesla would modify a pre-AP car to include AP hardware.�
Aug 16, 2016
vandacca It would seem to me that if Tesla could simply replace a single part (e.g. Battery, seat, mirror, etc.) then they may consider offering the upgrade. But if they have to go further and replace wiring harnesses, CPUs, hydraulics, panels, etc., then it becomes too complicated a service to offer.
The engineers in Fremont could probably accomplish that upgrade, but having to train all the SC staff across the world would be a logistical nightmare.�
Aug 16, 2016
systemcrashed How would Tesla entice you to buy another Tesla if they kept giving you all the new features in an older car? Some updates are planned for the build they are producing and some are designed for new builds which would require the purchase of a newer model year. What sets Tesla above the rest is the first type of update that can actually add a new feature within the same hardware set that you never had when you first bought the car. I think we are getting past the revolutionary phase and entering the evolutionary phase of product development.�
Aug 16, 2016
Epymian I would not assume the new AP hardware would be incorporated if Tesla did not preach this upgradeability mantra a little bit. I am not disappointed in my car in any way currently - don't get me wrong. And if it cannot be changed, that is okay. But I do feel that Tesla speaks a lot about regular upgrades and I assumed this would include hardware. I have had my car for 2 months so not as savvy as some of you multi car multi year owners.
I also feel that if Tesla has created this amazing car without the ability to replace the CPU or the sensors, then that is a failure of engineering to some degree. These are not critical features, but how hard can it be to put in some redundancy in cabling to accommodate new sensors in a car in this price (and technology) range. Most data can run over a single wire nowadays and the times of needing 8 strands per cable are fading.
Philosophically I think that the car would be cooler if you could replace the CPU with new hardware and swap out sensors/winshields/body panels/batteries as new tech comes available. Maybe it would need a trip to the main factory and 20K. Whatever.
Some of you may judge me as foolish for confusing "software" update capability with "hardware" updates. I just assumed both were possible for a price.
Would I be a little bit disappointed if the sensors were not upgradeable - yes. These are engineering issues and I do not believe that Musk's team is not capable of solving them or anticipating them. If the original S was not upgradeable in terms of hardware, would that not lead you to make the next model more modular? Tesla has broken a lot of paradigms in their manufacturing and design. Why not this one?
In the end, I leased my car and in 3 years I can pick up the next model without worries. There will also be a lot more competition in this arena at that point so who knows where you or I will end up.�
Aug 16, 2016
Epymian And in the end, no one knows what will be offered or possible until the new hardware is released anyways. But always fun to debate.�
Aug 16, 2016
vandacca This tech is evolving daily. How can you plan for the future if you don't know what technology is going to be available? There are multiple implementations out there and all are evolving rapidly. Just recently, Tesla and MobilEye decided to part ways, so I'm sure that also alters Tesla's plans moving forward.
Building things in a modular way is great, especially when things are evolving quickly. However, you pay for it with the implementation (bigger, boxier, not as efficient, etc.). This is why you don't expect Apple to upgrade your iPhone's camera when a new one comes out. As a designer, being unrestricted by upgrades allows you to build a better product.
In the end, I think this is all harder than it appears, which is why upgrades are rare.�
Aug 16, 2016
aesculus My only speculation here is that if this were a normal hw feature it would probably not happen. But with all the press surrounding AP 1.0, accidents, reducing scope in China, NTSB investigation ..., I give some probability that TM would offer (maybe even require?) some form of upgrade from AP 1.0 beyond a simile sw update. But this is just a far out possibility and I give it low single digit odds. The same odds I gave myself of getting an active spoiler on a 90D when they announced it was only for the performance cars.�
Aug 16, 2016
Stasla Tesla project Ara?
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Aug 16, 2016
Epymian Here is the thing for me. When I pushed the buy button last winter, Tesla was talking about autopilot being in beta. It was called autopilot and not driver assist. The assumption was that it would come out of beta and become the real thing at some point. The whole software upgrade thing further gave me the feeling that the hardware was sufficient and at some point the software would catch up to allow true autopilot. Now I accept that the next level might be pretty good with current sensors and V8.0 as implied by many threads and questionable leaks. I do feel that if within 6-8 months of my ordering a car there is a substantial hardware upgrade that was not telegraphed in advance then I have been gullible to believe the soft claims of the marketing and such. If Tesla is going to substantially revamp the hardware this quickly, then they must have had some internal inkling this was going to happen several months ago. This has been in the plans for a while. Therefore it seems reasonable to have some type of upgrade path in place and I would hope the wiring and things that are hard to retrofit are already in place.
The key to me is that Level 3 or 4 is a huge jump in functionality and presumably safety. Are current X owners relegated to permanent beta status and what does the non-beta Autopilot look like for us. When Tesla gave us a beta feature last fall, what was the implied final product that is called "autopilot" exactly?
The original S was not sold with "autopilot" as a feature. My X was marketed that way and I personally hope there is an upgrade path of some sort.�
Aug 16, 2016
vandacca There is still plenty of room for improvement with the current batch of AutoPilot capable vehicles. I expect it to be significantly better a year from now without any hardware changes.
However, full autonomous driving may not be possible with the existing hardware.
Furthermore, even with the new hardware, full autonomy will not be reached for a number of years to come (software needs to catch up), so the capabilities between AP1.0 and AP2.0 will probably be indistinguishable until 2019 at the earliest.�
Aug 17, 2016
spentan Ahahahaha, Yessssss!
Actually, my Sig X is my company issued vehicle. My Sig S is company issued for mum (VP in my company) and also available on Turo. The Black Model S P85 will most likely be for sale soon.
The other two Xes are part of my fleet. Limousine operator explains why he is converting his fleet to Tesla�s Model X�
Aug 17, 2016
Kbra 62.38%�
Aug 17, 2016
Matias It is 100% sure, that fully autonomous driving is not possible with current hardware. Elon himself has said that.�
Aug 17, 2016
Matias Here Elon says, that current sensors are not enough for fully autonomous car (which is of course obvious, since car can't see to sides and back beyond ultrasonic).
Starting at approximately 9:40
�
Aug 17, 2016
787steve When I took my first Tesla test drive, the one thing that impressed me the most was what a pleasure it was to drive. I was impressed by the styling, the wide screen tv, and Jarvis updating himself while I slept, but the biggest draw to me was the low CG, the performance, and how well it carved a turn. I didn't care about AP, but now I am anxious for our MS AP delivery which includes,,,,, well includes whatever comes with it.
Today, technology moves so quickly that if you want to stay current, you have to adopt my old plan. My wife has been instructed that while on my death bed, she should buy me a new computer, phone, camera, etc. (and now a Tesla). That way I can die up to date with all the right stuff. But if you are not ready to depart this world, take a breath, relax, and realize that the next big thing is always coming. It is just out of sight, but you know it is coming fast. It is a folly to spend too much time trying to be sure you don't miss the next wave.
In the good old days cars were built to a certain specification and, except for deterioration, remained as such. We only had to worry about new models once a year. Thank you Tesla for changing that paradigm. And darn you for giving us so much to fret about! Now, please do a real nice job building my Model S. I am looking forward to driving it. And occasionally, I may let Jarvis have a turn at the controls.
Drive Safe.�
Aug 17, 2016
Claypigeon With AP 2.0, what are the chances they charge an additional amount for level 3 autonomy with a guarantee like Volvo? Tesla has a decent job of keeping prior owners' values up despite constant improvements and battery cost reductions.�
Aug 17, 2016
systemcrashed I venture to say that fully autonomous driving (level 4, maybe even level 3) will not be possible with AP 2.0 hardware as well. This is a work in progress and may take more than two versions before something that is fully autonomous is released to the public. Not even sure the hardware/software/a.i. is capable yet..�
Aug 17, 2016
ohmman I would be very surprised if AP 2.0 took us to point-to-point autonomy. I mean, we just finally got a computer to beat a human at Go, which has a strict set of rules.
I know, not a valid comparison. But it makes my point sound better!�
Aug 17, 2016
K-MTG How do you explain all of Elon's Tweets on using EXISTING autopilot hardware for new features??�
Aug 17, 2016
aesculus Existing HW in the world, not on the cars. In other words they don't have to invent anything new, just apply it.�
Aug 17, 2016
Saghost What's to explain?
I have no doubt Tesla will release a few more firmware updates that expand the functionality of current AP cars. They aren't promising full autonomy in those updates.
However, they've been quite clear that full autonomy is the long term goal, and also that the current package won't get there.
Therefore, at some point they must release a more extensive sensor package, which may or may not be retrofitable to older cars - the subject of all the speculation on this thread.�
Aug 17, 2016
ccutrer While I'm not gonna guarantee it, I wouldn't be surprised. Even with all the necessary sensor inputs for full autonomy, making more and more intelligent decisions require more and more computing power. I actually don't know how much further they can take current autopilot with software, since more image analysis, etc. just might be too much for the hardware they have. Typically you size the hardware to the algorithm you're running on it (because you can make specialized hardware that runs specific algorithms - like image analysis - for far cheaper than a much more powerful general purpose processor that would be needed to match the specialized hardware), and I don't know how much headroom Tesla left themselves to be able to run software that hasn't been written yet.�
Aug 17, 2016
chipmunk While I don't feel any sort of entitlement to an upgrade, and I'm certainly not holding my breath for an upgrade, there is an unmentioned reason they might. Tesla has significant incentive (more than other auto makers) to maintain the residual value of vehicles. Tesla has offered guarantees of residual values, and has a very high percentage of leases that they need to turn around and sell again. If AutoPilot 2.0 provides a larger increase in residual value than the cost to upgrade, then they have a vested interest in developing an upgrade.
Along this same line of thinking though, I've often thought Tesla should offer an upgrade to turn RWD 85s into P85Ds with the addition of the front motor....but they obviously haven't done that either.�
Aug 17, 2016
systemcrashed Features can be subtle GUI changes (like showing actual angle of surrounding traffic), or functional features that use the same set of hardware in new ways (like exiting the highway at a ramp using the turn signal). I bet there is more that AP 1.0 can actually do but AP 2.0 will do more reliably with new hardware.�
Aug 17, 2016
K-MTG For those of you that purchased your X, what do you plan on doing once autopilot 2.0 is out along with a 100kwh battery?
1) Nothing
2) Retrofit, if it exist
3) Trade in immediately
4) Wait for a redesign, 3 years or so�
Aug 17, 2016
MP3Mike Full autonomy requires redundancy. And that isn't for just sensors/CPUs. You also need to have redundant electric steering/braking controls. I know Elon said that they were working towards that with suppliers for the Model 3. But I don't know about the steering rack and iBooster brakes in the Model S/X. So until you see changes in the hardware there you aren't going to get to Level 4. (And I haven't heard any rumors about AP 2.0 including that additional hardware.)�
Aug 17, 2016
Stasla 4
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Aug 17, 2016
vandacca 2) Retrofit, if it exist
I sense a new poll thread coming...�
Aug 17, 2016
K-MTG That is what I am leaning for as well�
Aug 17, 2016
systemcrashed Option 1, possibly 2 (if cost is reasonable and new features are substantial). As it stands, my MX does what I need/want it to do with AP 1.0�
Aug 17, 2016
K-MTG What is considered reasonable, I would be willing to pay anything under $5k�
Aug 17, 2016
systemcrashed same here, that's why I didn't say ludicrous�
Aug 17, 2016
Epymian 2
I think v8.0 will improve the capabilities with existing hardware from the rumours out there. Maybe it will tide us over so 4 is the better option. If the upgrade to 3.0 autopilot or more was 10K, I would do it.�
Aug 17, 2016
K-MTG For $10k I want hardware the would support fully autonomous driving.�
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